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Strategy's Latest Results Highlight One Question: How Much Premium Does the Market Still Give MSTR?
The latest quarter once again showed how closely Strategy (MSTR) is tied to Bitcoin.
When $BTC falls, the company's reported Bitcoin-related losses expand.
When $BTC rises, those paper losses begin to reverse.
The relationship has become increasingly straightforward.
For years, investors were willing to assign MSTR a premium because it wasn't just a Bitcoin holder.
It also offered:
• Large-scale BTC exposure
• Access to capital markets
• A leveraged Bitcoin narrative
• The Michael Saylor factor
But as MSTR's price increasingly behaves like a higher-beta version of Bitcoin, the market naturally asks:
How much premium should it continue to deserve over simply holding BTC?
This isn't necessarily about the company's operating business suddenly deteriorating.
It's about the market reassessing how it values a company whose performance is now heavily linked to Bitcoin's price.
The Key Signal Going Forward
👀 Watch Bitcoin first.
If $BTC loses major support, MSTR could experience even larger downside due to its higher beta.
If Bitcoin stabilizes and recovers quickly, MSTR could also rebound aggressively as positioning resets.
That's the nature of the trade.
MSTR isn't just a stock.
For many investors, it's become a leveraged expression of Bitcoin exposure.
Higher upside.
Higher downside.
Higher volatility.
NFA | DYOR
$BTC $MSTR
#SoftPCEStrongDemand #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay $BTC $ETH $SNDK When cryptocurrency prices fluctuate greatly, the financial reports of crypto concept stocks easily mix two things: asset price fluctuations and whether the company's business is actually strengthening. Trading platforms look at trading volume, fees, and subscription revenue; Coin holders look at financing costs, changes in holdings, and per-share dilution. Focusing only on net profit may be misled by fluctuations in the fair value of digital assets. I'm stunned—on the surface, it's all 'affected by BTC,' but the underlying risks are completely different. What's more worth watching next is whether the main cash flow can cover expansion, and whether the company increasingly relies on a one-sided rise in coin prices. These stocks don't have a Crypto label just because they're spot BTC. This is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. #美股加密标的承压, price fluctuations affect financial $BTC $ETH Why SK hynix Exploded Higher Today
I opened the chart expecting a routine relief bounce.
Instead, I found a massive green candle.
Moves like that rarely happen because of a single headline—they usually come from several bullish catalysts aligning at once.
Here's what stood out:
📌 Insider Confidence
SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won purchased 3,620 shares of SK hynix on July 30, worth roughly ₩4.8 billion.
This was notable because it marked his first direct purchase of SK hynix shares after the stock's sharp decline from previous highs. Insider buying often attracts attention when sentiment is weak.
📌 Semiconductor Sector Rotation
The rally wasn't isolated.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged, while memory-related names such as SanDisk, Micron, Seagate, Western Digital, and SK hynix all moved sharply higher.
Broad participation across the sector usually carries more weight than a single stock rally.
📌 Microsoft Strengthened the AI Narrative
Microsoft's earnings helped reinforce confidence in AI infrastructure demand.
Key positives included:
• Strong Azure growth
• Cloud revenue surpassing $100B annually
• Improved profitability that eased concerns over AI spending
That also supported expectations for stronger HBM and DRAM demand moving forward.
My Position
My average entry remains around 908.37.
I'm sitting on a healthy unrealized gain.
I'm not trying to call the exact top.
Instead:
✅ Scale out gradually into strength.
✅ Trail my stop higher to protect gains.
✅ Reassess on pullbacks instead of reacting emotionally.
One lesson stands out:
Finding a winning trade is only half the battle.
Managing the exit without giving back months of profits is where the real edge is built.
NFA | DYOR
$SKHYNIX $MSFT $MU $SNDK
#SoftPCEStrongDemand #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay $BTC $ETH Apple's earnings beat expectations, but fell about 4% in after-hours trading: The most dangerous pitfall in earnings trading has emerged
Apple delivered a report that looked very strong:
Single-quarter net profit was $29.79 billion;
Earnings per share were $2.02, higher than the market expectation of $1.89;
iPhone sales are strong.
But after the results were announced, Apple's stock fell about 4% in after-hours trading.
This is where earnings trading is most likely to lose money:
Good performance does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise.
Stock price trading has never been about "good or bad," but about three questions:
First, did the results exceed already high expectations?
If funds had already bet on exceeding expectations before the earnings report, then ordinary positive news is merely fulfilling expectations.
Second, can growth be sustained?
One-time factors can improve quarterly profits, but they do not necessarily raise the market's valuation of future cash flows.
Third, did the management come up with a stronger new story?
Apple now not only wants to sell more iPhones, but the market is also waiting for answers from AI, profit margins, and the next phase of growth.
I won't bottom-fish in the first minute after the market opens.
Scenario A: After opening down, it quickly recovers, then rises back above the midpoint of the 30-minute range after opening, with the Nasdaq stabilizing in sync.
Simulated operation: establish a 10% observation hold; Only after breaking through the 30-minute high again will it be considered to increase to 20%.
Scenario B: The rebound is weak, unable to recover the midpoint of the 30-minute range, then falls below the low again.
Simulated trading: give up bottom-fishing. The failure of the first rebound after an earnings report is often more important to watch out for than the first downturn.
Scenario C: Apple falls, but the Nasdaq and other large tech stocks remain strong.
Simulated operation: First, handle the issue as a stock issue, without rushing to escalate Apple's weakness into risk for the entire tech sector.
The same applies to BTC.
If Apple's decline is just a company issue and has limited impact on BTC; But if large tech stocks weaken in sync, and both the dollar and US Treasury yields rise, that's a signal to reduce risk exposure.
Today, I'll make just one choice:
A: Buy the dip if it drops 4%.
B: Buy after recovering the midpoint within 30 minutes
C: On the first day after the financial report, I don't touch it at all
I choose B. Which one do you choose? You can leave just one letter in the comments.
The above is a simulated strategy and does not represent actual transactions, nor does it constitute investment advice.Is big money quietly entering the market? Don't be fooled by PCE's "divation"—the real signal is hidden in the GDP sub-item
PCE fell 0.1% month-on-month in June, marking the first monthly negative since 2020. Many retail investors, seeing headline data fall, react first with the idea that "deflation is coming" or "the economy is about to collapse," and even expect the Fed to tighten liquidity to rescue the market soon. But if you only focus on this, you might miss the real logic behind this wave of "big money entering the market." The real gold mines are hidden in the overlooked GDP sub-sectors
Although the preliminary Q2 GDP figure released on the same day saw an annualized growth of 1.5%, which was below expectations, note a key figure: after excluding net exports, inventories, and government spending, domestic private final sales grew by 3.9%, the highest since early 2023.
What does this indicate? This shows that although prices have fallen on the surface, ordinary Americans and businesses are still spending and investing frantically. This is not a sign of recession; it is the strongest evidence of a "soft landing" or even a "no landing." This combination of "low inflation + strong domestic demand" is precisely the favorite breeding ground for asset prices. This is the "macro sweet spot" that institutional funds are exploiting: retail investors focus on CPI/PCE and guess rate cuts, while institutions focus on "private final sales" to calculate profits.
- The cooling PCE means the Fed does not need to raise rates to suffocating heights to fight inflation, weakening the urgency for immediate rate hikes.
- Strong domestic demand (3.9% growth) means corporate earnings are secure, the AI investment boom hasn't faded, and consumption hasn't crashed.
The result is: pressure on the denominator side (interest rates) has decreased, and expectations for corporate earnings on the numerator side have stabilized. This is a classic Davis double-hit eve. So you'll see that although macro data looks a bit chaotic, ETF funds are starting to flow back, BTC is rebounding, and US tech giants are still holding firm. Big money isn't betting on national fortune, but on this perfect macro combination.
So, where exactly is the "information gap" between us and institutions?
- What are retail investors looking at? Watching whether oil prices will rebound and whether next month will see negative growth is easily scared off by fluctuations in monthly data.
- What are institutions looking at? They are looking for the persistence of the trend.
The current situation is: cooling inflation has weakened the urgency of rate hikes, but strong domestic demand has given tightening supporters confidence. About 63% of rate hike pricing in September is facing recalibration. For big money, current volatility is not a risk but an opportunity to build positions. They are not afraid of a rebound in inflation; they are only afraid that the economy will truly stall. As long as that 3.9% domestic demand figure remains, they have every reason to stay at the table.
$BTC
@OKX planet 📊 $ADA Contract Liquidation Express (July 31)
According to liquidation data, be careful with short positions, the dog whales are grinding shorts into the ground...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $1,309.07
Long position liquidations about $1,272.41
Short position liquidations about $36.66
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $59,200
Long position liquidations about $59,200
Short position liquidations about $36.66
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $204,600
Long position liquidations about $175,500
Short position liquidations about $29,100
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $743,500
Long position liquidations about $237,800
Short position liquidations about $505,600
From the $ADA liquidation data, short liquidations in 1-4 hours are nearly zero, shorts face no resistance, and the long squeeze is fierce; starting from 12 hours, short liquidations increase significantly, and in 24 hours short liquidations crush longs, with short liquidations 2.13 times that of longs, triggering a full short squeeze and a reversal in direction. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get liquidated.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: coexistence of cooling inflation and slowing growth, AI narratives are undergoing intense divergence—the market no longer rewards the "burn money narrative," but rather "spending efficiency" and "real cloud revenue."
📉 PCE turns negative month-over-month, GDP growth slows to 1.5%: Inflation cools but growth is worrying
US June PCE price index fell 0.1% month-over-month, the first monthly decline since 2020. Core PCE year-over-year slightly dropped from 3.4% to 3.3%. Inflation cooling mainly due to oil price decline after the US and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement.
Q2 GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter growth was only 1.5%, lower than 2.1% in Q1. But private consumption plus investment, reflecting domestic demand, rebounded to 3.9%, the fastest since early 2023. Imports, inventories, and government spending dragged GDP down, while consumption clearly warmed, and AI-driven corporate investment remained high. The economy’s "substance" is more solid than its "appearance."
📈 Amazon cloud business explodes, after-hours up nearly 10%: AI spending pays off
Amazon Q2 revenue $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year. AWS revenue $42.2 billion, up 37%, fastest growth since 2021. CEO Jassy said AWS AI business annualized revenue has exceeded $25 billion. Net profit $62.6 billion, up 245% year-over-year. After-hours stock price surged nearly 10%.
The market ignored the capital expenditure increase to $220 billion, free cash flow turning negative $7.6 billion, and Q3 guidance slightly below expectations. AWS’s explosive growth proves AI investment is paying off, contrasting sharply with Google’s plunge after raising spending and Microsoft’s surge after maintaining spending—the market rewards not spending itself, but spending efficiency.
📊 Microsoft’s single-day market cap increase of $450 billion sets a US stock record
Microsoft surged 15.5% on Thursday, the largest single-day gain since October 2008, with market cap increasing by $450 billion in one day, setting the largest single-day market cap increase record in US stock history. Microsoft’s stock rose 15.51% in one day, with market cap reaching about $3.35 trillion. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also surged over 8%, ending a five-day losing streak. The capital market consensus is forming: AI winners are those who can convert computing power investment into real cloud revenue.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the same turning point: PCE turning negative and GDP slowing coexist, economic data is internally contradictory; Amazon’s explosive AWS growth proves AI investment can pay off, with after-hours surge near 10%; Microsoft’s single-day market cap increase of $450 billion sets a US stock record—the market no longer rewards the "burn money narrative," but "spending efficiency" and "real cloud revenue." The old AI valuation logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is forming. #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
#微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 $BTC The rally from last night to today is due to an unexpected cooling in PCE data, opening up dovish space. The main logic at this stage should be low expectations. This kind of local fluctuation tests rhythm more than one-sidedness; if not done well, it's easy to get hit from both sides, full of tricks.
Although it has been recovering these past two days, I have been emphasizing the overall direction: Coinbese's spot trading volume has not increased in tandem; compared to the 30-day average, it has declined, the index is in the fear zone, no new funds have bought the bottom, and the only outcome is a crash;
To achieve a reversal, volume must rise in sync with prices (rising open interest) + volume must break through 67k with daily closing above the chart, or rate cut expectations strengthening. Regulatory support will drive risk sentiment to recover: So far, it's quite difficult—extremely difficult.
Today, I continue to maintain the view of watching Kong's above 65k. The fix should end here. Next, I'll look at 63 first, then 61. Good luck to everyone!So $GRVT TGE yesterday, many OGs printed 6 figures on the airdrop. But I think the best perps airdrop in 2026 is not yet to come.
$HYPE was the elite perp farm of 2024. $LIT was the obvious next move in 2025.
@variational_io is setting up to be the best pre-TGE perp play left in 2026 imo.
Real scale, stacked cap table, points still printing, and token value capture already locked in.
– $177B cumulative volume (team says $200B+)
– $24.2B in the last 30d
– OI went $351M dec → $1.3B+ now
– ~30k daily actives, 33% retention (this category usually sees ~20%)
– $61.8M raised total, $50M series A led by Dragonfly
– 50% of $VAR going to community, confirmed
OI is the number that doesn't lie. The reason Variational can sustain this without charging normal maker or taker fees is the OLP.
Thier edge is gold, silver, copper and WTI are already live. 500+ markets total, peaked at 1k listings before, another 100+ equities/FX/index pairs incoming
For reference, Lighter was doing ~$279.5B monthly vol, $1.7B OI, $1.15B TVL around their TGE.
So saying Variational has already matched Lighter on every metric is cope.
But OI gap is closing, cap table's just as heavy, points supply might actually be scarcer, and community allocation is basically matching Lighter's 50%
Pre-market $VAR briefly at $6.90, ~$690M FDV. Wouldn't lean on an illiquid pre-market print too hard but the setup speaks for itself.
Variational's pricing well under lighter's private valuation while chasing the same RWA derivatives thesis.
Rough napkin math on a hypothetical 25% airdrop across 9-10M points:
– $1B FDV → ~$25-28 per point
– $1.5B FDV → ~$38-42 per point
– $3B FDV → ~$75-83 per point
These aren't forecasts because the team hasn't confirmed that 25% goes to the first airdrop or published the conversion formula.
The only confirmed number is that approximately 50% will go to the community overall.
OTC's pricing points around $20-21 rn, that's just where farmers are betting. Treating it like locked value is how you farm yourself into a bag hole.
Right now I wouldn't overtrade.#微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for the US stock market
Microsoft rose over 15% in a single day, increasing its market value by nearly $450 billion, surpassing Nvidia's April 2025 record of $441 billion, making it the stock with the largest single-day market cap increase in US stock history.
Received a financial report push in the early morning: Azure cloud revenue grew 43%, exceeding expectations, with annualized revenue surpassing 100 billion yuan for the first time. The market's biggest concern is that AI investment will not see returns—Microsoft first gave cloud revenue to the market.
(1) How impressive are the data?
Microsoft rose 8.5% after hours on July 29, expanded to 12% at the next day's opening, with buying continuing throughout the trading day and closing up over 15%, with its market value increasing by nearly $450 billion in a single day. Azure grew 43% at constant exchange rates, accelerating from 40% last quarter, with annualized revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time. Management has given a growth forecast of about 45% for next quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations of around 41%. The full-year capital expenditure forecast has dropped from 190 billion to 175 billion.
Previously, the market worried that AI investment would not yield returns, so Microsoft released cloud revenue first. Spend less, earn more—that's the answer the market wants. Then it rose 15% in a single day, increasing its market value by 450 billion yuan—the market's rewards and punishments were just as straightforward.
(2) Why is the price rising so fiercely?
Capital Group analyst David Polak summed it up well: "What the market really wants is a tech company saying my AI investment is paying off." Microsoft delivered not only promises but also specific customer lists and bills. "Azure's accelerated growth is direct evidence of 'AI creating real revenue.' Copilot has surpassed 30 million customers, and over 90% of Fortune 500 companies use Copilot."
The 45% growth guidance for next quarter means Azure's acceleration is not a one-time event. Microsoft is proving its ability to turn AI investments into sustained revenue growth, with the market pricing in a structural shift rather than a one-off event.
(3) Transmission to the crypto market
Microsoft's surge and Amazon's 9% increase are driving a comprehensive recovery in tech sentiment, with marginal improvement in risk appetite being transmitted to the crypto market. The recovery in tech stock sentiment has provided support for BTC and ETH, and storage chips, as the core link of the AI hardware chain, have seen their demand expectations validated by the continued growth of tech giants' cloud businesses.
Microsoft's financial report proves one thing: the market's narrative about AI is shifting from "burning money for growth" to "AI is beginning to generate verifiable returns." For the crypto market, as long as the foundation of AI infrastructure is solid, demand for memory chips will not be interrupted.
Amazon's Q3 guidance fell short of expectations, rising 9% in after-hours trading; Tesla's revenue hit a record high, but fell 14% in after-hours trading. The market isn't looking at performance, but at "whose story can renew." Microsoft's story can still be continued.
$XMSFT Here is why I think $GRVT can produce a billions, RaveDao or Lab tyoe of run...
>>> what categoried these tokens is they were heavily vested and they also were listed on binance alpha
Below is the vesting schedule of the token
>>> 12 month vesting (4 phases, TGE with 5% unlock,November with 10% unlock, March 2027 with 40% unlock and July 2027 with 55% unlock)
I expect price to drop BTW to like 150m fdv region and then rally to over 1 billion fdv in the coming days or weeks...#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
⚠️ Personal views exchanged and do not constitute investment advice
SK Hynix's Q2 profit surged 557%, setting a record high, but still failed to meet market expectations, and the earnings report put pressure on its stock price; Samsung met its performance targets and remains optimistic about AI storage demand in the second half of the year. Industry bullish outlook, but the secondary market is cutting down valuations, with clear divisions.
This volatility also raised issues with leveraged ETFs. Many retail investors bet on the storage market with double leverage and ended up suffering heavy losses. South Korea's finance minister issued a public apology and regulators are preparing to tighten rules on leveraged products.
My judgment is straightforward: short-term follow the market, long-term accept industry logic.
The market has already sold off the positive news, and the funds in the earnings report have naturally been realized and exited; But HBM's rigid AI demand remains unchanged, and the industry's long-term logic remains intact.
Once leverage regulation tightens, short-term speculative funds will decrease, and subsequent market volatility will also decrease.
This round, I choose to wait and see and avoid such intense games. Once valuations are fully digested, I will reconsider my positioning; I will be more restrained when dealing with leveraged products later.
Do you prefer the AI dividends in the industry, or do you agree that the market is cutting valuations now? After the new regulations are implemented, will you still use leveraged ETFs to trade storage stocks? $XSNDK $KR200 Today's market can be summed up in one word: split.
BTC is solder to 64,436, with an amplitude of 0.10%. The candlestick is drawn like a ruler. KDJ's J value is not idle—it was still -8 in the early morning, now it's up to 92, overbought. But prices remain unchanged, with both bulls and bears playing dead in the opposite direction.
The whole play takes place in the mountain stronghold. SNDK jumped from 972 to over 1600, and today a single thread stuck back up to 1390. The brother in the square went all-in on 1624 with a full-margin short position, unrealized profit of 700%+, and shouted, "Dog dealer, please up." With 50x leverage, bulls and bears interfering, and neither side has the last laugh.
Wintermute just said: The next altcoin season will only benefit a few tokens, with funds concentrated at the top. Today's market is a living textbook—money circulates in the alt, refusing to return BTC.
Shrink and weld to a sealed plate—don't take sides before the direction comes out. Knockoff needles—if you don't have position management, don't take them. $BTC $ETH $SOL🚨 Apple falls, Amazon rises—what exactly is the market betting on?
Last night's two financial reports had completely opposite reactions
Apple's revenue was $109.4 billion, up 16% year-on-year, while iPhone revenue was $54.25 billion, up nearly 22%, with net profit reaching $29.79 billion
Is this a bad grade? Not bad at all
But management projected revenue growth for next quarter at only 9%–11%, and the stock price fell about 4% after hours
It's like scoring 90 on this exam, but telling parents at home that next time they'll only get 80. The market is buying the future; no matter how good the data is, as long as growth starts to decline, it still refuses to accept 📉 it
Amazon is even more extreme
Over the past 12 months, free cash flow has turned negative by $7.6 billion, and this year it plans to raise capital expenditures from $200 billion to $220 billion, yet the stock price actually rose more than 9% in after-hours trading
The reason lies with AWS
AWS quarterly revenue grew 37%, the fastest growth in 18 quarters. The money Amazon pours in quickly turns into servers, chips, and computing power, which are then rented out to customers by the hour, making the payment process visible
Meta is also burning cash, with capital expenditures of $31.08 billion in Q2 and another $130 billion to $145 billion for the full year. The advertising business is indeed growing, but costs have increased 55% year-on-year, and quarterly free cash flow is down to $784 million. Naturally, the market is asking when these AI investments will truly turn into profit
So the market is not afraid of companies spending money at all now
What it fears is that when the money runs out, all that's left is "the future is very imaginative."
Apple is paying the current report card, while Amazon is selling AWS bills for the coming years
Currently, the market is more willing to pay for the latter
Which side are you on? 👀
$AAPL $AMZN $META血洗前夜？油价月涨20%撞上PCE转负，美联储正在失去“降息借口”！
7月31日盘中，WTI原油期货一度跌超3%至80.12美元，布伦特跌近3%报84.4美元。
但全月算下来——WTI累计涨了约20%，布伦特一度突破90美元。
整个7月，美伊在约旦互炸。7月中旬伊朗袭击美军基地，2名美军死亡；7月29日伊朗弹道导弹再袭约旦，美军报复空袭。油价跟着导弹一起飞。
一个月内，缓和与升级切换了两次。
就在油价飞天的同一天，美国公布了6月PCE数据——环比下降0.1%，四年来首次月度转负。
年化PCE 3.7%，核心PCE 3.3%。
一边是油价月涨20%，一边是通胀指标四年来首次转负。
这叫什么？叫滞胀幽灵。
拆开看，这条逻辑链有多致命：
第一环：油价是通胀的发动机。布伦特从71美元冲到90美元上方，能源成本沿产业链逐级传导。霍尔木兹海峡通航量降至零，这不是短期脉冲，是供应端的结构性冲击。
第二环：通胀预期逆转，直接改写利率路径。7月初市场认为9月加息的概率只有18%，到7月20日已飙到61.4%。CME FedWatch最新数据显示，9月加息概率仍高达65.2%。
第三环：7月30日美联储刚宣布维持利率在3.5%-3.75%不变——但内部已经炸了。3名票委投出加息反对票，2016年以来首次。
第四环：加息预期推高美元实际利率，而实际利率是风险资产定价的锚。利率上升=未来现金流折现率提高=估值倍数收缩。
这套组合拳打下来——美股、AI股、加密货币，谁也跑不掉。
说人话：
市场过去半年一直在交易一个故事—— “通胀回落→美联储降息→流动性释放→BTC起飞” 。
油价站上90美元，这个故事的基础没了。
市场现在交易的是另一个故事—— “油价涨→通胀反弹→加息→流动性收紧→风险资产承压” 。
你手里拿的BTC，定价逻辑已经变了。
最近BTC在6.4万美元附近震荡。美股却在深V反弹，道指涨1.19%，纳指大涨2.78%。
为什么？
美股在交易“GDP增速放缓→美联储不敢加息”的软着陆叙事。
但加密市场在交易什么？流动性收紧的预期。
同一个宏观数据，两个市场，两种解读。谁对谁错？
看油价。
WTI如果守不住81美元（7月31日盘中已跌破80），市场在交易“需求崩塌”的衰退逻辑。
站不稳81，大盘有系统性回调风险。
站稳了，才是利空出尽。
说句难听的：
不要问打仗对币圈有什么影响。
你只需记住——
每次中东起飞，都是大户对冲做空大盘的信号枪。
$BTC $BZ $CL #美伊报复循环加速，油价月内累涨20% Latest U.S. economic data sends important signals:
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
The market is repricing a core logic:
Inflation is cooling, but the economy is also slowing down.
Over the past two years, the Fed has been addressing one issue:
How to curb inflation while avoiding a recession.
At present, the data is moving toward a "soft landing."
PCE turning negative means:
Inflationary pressures continue to ease, and the Fed is opening up room for further rate cuts.
Market logic may be as follows:
High inflation → rate hikes → tightening liquidity
Gradually shifting to:
Inflation is falling → rate cut expectations → liquidity has improved
And a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.5% does not mean an economic collapse.
Currently, it seems more like a normal cooling in a high interest rate environment.
Consumption remains resilient, corporate investment has not significantly stagnated, especially AI infrastructure investment remains strong.
For the market, the key issue is not a decline in GDP, but whether the economy will continue to deteriorate in the future.
If:
PCE continued to decline
Employment remains stable
The Federal Reserve has signaled a rate cut
Then the market may enter a new liquidity cycle.
Benefit Sources:
US tech stocks
Growth assets
Crypto market
Especially for BTC, liquidity relaxation has often been a key driver of gains throughout historical cycles.
Next, focus on:
Changes in U.S. employment data
Core PCE trends
Federal Reserve rate cut expectations
In short:
The U.S. economy is transitioning from the "high inflation + high interest rates" phase to "low growth + low inflation."
The real market isn't about how much the economy can grow, but when the liquidity turning point arrives.🔥 #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for the US stock market
One day it rises to become "96% of the companies in the S&P 500"! Microsoft's move shattered the record
Brothers, last night the US stock market staged a drama worthy of going down in history—
Microsoft's stock price surged 15.5%, marking its largest single-day gain since October 2008. Market value increased by $450 billion in a single day. During the session, it even surged by $490 billion.
What does this number mean? This exceeds the total market capitalization of about 96% of the companies in the S&P 500 index. The combined market capitalization of the four countries—South Africa, Turkey, Finland, and Vietnam—hasn't even surged as much as Microsoft did in a single day. The 450 billion yuan directly crushed Nvidia's record of 440 billion set in April last year, making it the largest single-day market cap increase in global stock market history.
There are only two triggers for the price surge:
First, Azure exploded. Q4 revenue grew 43% year-on-year, marking the fastest growth since early 2022. For the first time, Azure's full-year revenue surpassed $100 billion. Microsoft CEO Nadella once said, "This year is the strongest year in our history."
Second, capital expenditures stabilized. Previously, the market feared the endless AI-burning costs, but Microsoft has clearly stated that its 2026 capital expenditure plan remains unchanged. Azure's growth exceeded expectations + no capital expenditure increases, and the double positive factor directly drove the stock price upward.
Even more interesting is Meta, which was released on the same day. Q3 guidance was weak, free cash flow plummeted, and the stock price plunged 8%, marking 11 consecutive trading days of decline and the longest losing streak since listing.
Overnight, the market voted with real money—who was seriously making money and who was burning it was clear. Microsoft holds $19.6 billion in free cash flow, while Meta has less than $800 million left in its books.
This is the gap.
The $450 billion daily increase is not just a string of numbers—it's the market telling everyone with its feet: some have already mastered the AI story, while others are still holding on. Bitcoin's true bottom may not appear when everyone is desperate, but rather when the market begins to anticipate a rebound in advance.
Recently, discussions about the bottom of the BTC cycle have been increasing, with one frequently mentioned time window being October this year.
Looking at Bitcoin's past halving cycles, there are indeed clear timing patterns in the market. After the bull market peaked in 2017, BTC bottomed out about a year later; After the cycle peak in 2021, a major adjustment was completed at the end of 2022. In recent cycles, the time from top to bottom has mostly been concentrated around 12 months. According to this logic, if the previous peak occurred in 2025, then Q4 2026 could become an important window to watch. Some cyclical studies suggest that the current bottom may fall near October 2026.
But I believe the idea of bottoming out in October needs to be viewed in two parts.
First, the time cycle is indeed valuable for reference.
Although Bitcoin is increasingly influenced by ETFs, institutional capital, and macro liquidity, it still inherently has strong cyclical attributes. The supply changes brought by the halving, combined with the cycle of market sentiment shifting from greed to fear, have not completely disappeared. In recent market cycles, after the top, there has always been a repricing process, but as the market matures, the volatility has gradually decreased.
Second, cycles cannot be simply replicated.
The biggest difference now and before is that Bitcoin has now entered the institutional asset system. ETFs, corporate asset allocation, and macro funds all influence the pace of declines. If liquidity conditions improve in the future or institutions continue to absorb selling pressure, BTC may not experience extreme panic bottoms like in past cycles.
So whether October is the lowest point or not, I won't jump to conclusions.
I lean more toward the view that October may be an important bottom area rather than a precise day.
There are several signals that truly deserve attention:
First, whether the market is experiencing extreme panic. Historical bottoms often come with a large number of investors losing confidence, rather than everyone discussing "Is it time to buy?"
Second, whether long-term holders have stopped selling. When a large amount of chips shift from short-term speculators to long-term funds, it usually means the market is completing reallocation.
Third, whether macro liquidity is shifting. If the Fed begins to release easing expectations, risk assets usually react early.
The biggest risk in the market right now is that many people already know the "four-year cycle" and that "the bottom may be in October." When too many people trade an expectation early, it may not actually follow the script.
The real bottom is often not a date, but a section.
If we follow historical cycles, the second half of 2026 is indeed worth focusing on, with October possibly being one of the key milestones. But rather than guessing the lowest price, it's more important to observe whether the market has completed the chip swap.
Many who make big money in a bull market don't buy at the lowest point, but set up their positions in advance before others still doubt the cycle. $BTC #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% 📊 $SOL Contract Liquidation Express (July 31)
According to liquidation data, be careful not to short, or you'll be pinned down by the dealers...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was approximately $2,903.70
The long liquidation was about $2,862.15
Short liquidation is about $41.55
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $328,600
Long positions were liquidated by about $318,400
Short positions were liquidated by about $10,300
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $1.4982 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $901,200
Short positions were liquidated by about $597,000
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $2.33 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $1.5857 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $744,400
From $SOL liquidation data, short liquidations dominate across all cycles, with bears facing continuous large-scale liquidations. The market shows a one-sided short squeeze, with 24-hour short liquidations at 2.13 times the rate of long positions. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being liquidated.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 31st
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the coexistence of cooling inflation and slowing growth, and the AI narrative is undergoing intense divergence—the market rewards are no longer just "money-burning narratives," but "efficiency in spending money" and "real cloud revenue."
📉 PCE turned negative month-on-month, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%: inflation cooled but growth was worrying
The US June PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first monthly negative increase since 2020. Core PCE slightly declined year-on-year from 3.4% to 3.3%. The cooling of inflation was mainly due to a drop in oil prices following the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.
On the same day, Q2 GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth was only 1.5%, lower than Q1's 2.1%. However, the growth rate of private consumption + investment, which reflects domestic demand, rebounded to 3.9%, the fastest since the beginning of 2023. Imports, inventories, and government spending dragged down GDP, while consumption clearly rebounded, and AI-driven corporate investment continued to grow rapidly. The "substance" of the economy is more solid than the "face."
📈 Amazon Web Services business explodes, rising nearly 10% after hours: AI spending has paid off
Amazon's Q2 revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20% year-on-year. AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth since 2021. CEO Jassi stated that the annualized revenue from AWS's AI business has exceeded $25 billion. Net profit was $62.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 245%. The stock price surged nearly 10% in after-hours trading.
The market ignored the upward revision of capital expenditure to $220 billion, free cash flow turning negative by $7.6 billion, and Q3 guidance slightly below expectations. AWS's explosive growth proves that AI investment is paying off, sharply contrasting with Google's plunge after raising spending, and Microsoft's spike after maintaining spending—the market rewards not the spending itself, but the efficiency of the spending.
📊 Microsoft's market value increased by 450 billion in a single day, setting a new record for US stocks
Microsoft surged 15.5% on Thursday, marking its largest single-day gain since October 2008, with its market value increasing by $450 billion in a single day and setting a new record for the largest single-day market capitalization growth in U.S. stock market history. Microsoft's stock price rose 15.51% in a single day, with a market capitalization of approximately $3.35 trillion. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also surged over 8%, ending a five-day losing streak. A consensus is forming in the capital markets: the winners in AI are companies that can turn computing power investment into real cloud revenue.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the same turning point: PCE turning negative and GDP slowing coexist, with contradictions within economic data; Amazon proved with AWS's explosive growth that AI investments can pay off, soaring nearly 10% in after-hours trading; Microsoft's single-day market value increased by 450 billion, setting a new US stock market record—the market's rewards were no longer just "money-burning narratives," but "efficiency in spending" and "real cloud revenue." The old AI valuation logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is taking shape. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
#微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for the US stock market Microsoft (MSFT) has recently become a focal point in the U.S. stock market. For fiscal year 2026 Q4 (ending June), revenue was approximately $90 billion (up 18% year-over-year), with adjusted EPS exceeding expectations; Azure and other cloud services grew 43% (accelerated), and annual Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time. Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats exceeded 30 million, and AI-related backlog saw significant growth.
After the earnings report, the stock price surged about 15% in a single day, marking one of the largest single-day market cap increases in U.S. stock market history (around $450 billion).
Core drivers: The market had previously worried that AI capital expenditures would cause cash flow pressure, but Microsoft demonstrated through accounting adjustments and strong demand that investments are converting into revenue, and provided guidance for about 45% Azure growth next quarter while maintaining positive free cash flow expectations.
This contrasts with the performance of some tech giants during the same period (such as Meta), reinforcing the differentiation of "AI winners."
Technical and valuation perspective: After the surge, the stock is short-term overbought, and it is necessary to observe whether it will pull back to support and consolidate. In the long term, the cloud + AI moat is deep, and analysts generally have raised their expectations.
OKX has launched some tokenized U.S. stock-related perpetuals (such as some X-Perps), providing crypto users with U.S. stock exposure references, but compliance and premium risks should be noted.
Outlook and risks: If the positive guidance is realized, it is expected to support sentiment in the tech sector; risks include macro interest rates, intensified competition, or capital expenditures exceeding expectations again.
Suitable for investors focused on AI infrastructure themes, but U.S. stock volatility is significantly influenced by macro factors and earnings seasons. The recent decline in Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq is a phenomenon far more interesting than the price movement itself. This decoupling is an important event worthy of in-depth analysis. When the correlation between major cryptocurrencies and tech stock indices begins to weaken significantly, it usually signals one of two things. The first possibility is that the crypto market is driven by its own structural capital flows, independent of the broader risk appetite and risk-aversion sentiment in the stock market. The second possibility is that broader stock buying has rotated elsewhere, leaving digital assets behind. Given Morgan Stanley's recent launch of spot ETH and SOL ETPs, the former scenario currently seems more plausible. Institutions are adopting the current buffer that acts as a buffer in the crypto market, shielding it from fluctuations in the tech sector. However, it's important to pay attention to the nuances. With ETH still unable to reclaim $2,000, $64,000 BTC represents a split market. Institutional appetite is clearly expanding its asset allocation—we've seen this in ETFs and new products—but it hasn't lifted all the ships. Funds are still being cautiously deployed. Solana's relative resilience is noteworthy, indicating strong buying interest in high-performance Layer 1s. For the market, the more interesting question is not whether BTC has decoupled from the stock market, but whether ETH has quietly decoupled from BTC. The divergence in their price actions suggests that funds are flowing out of ETH, into BTC, or possibly into SOL, creating a new dynamic at the crypto layer. The coming weeks are approachingApple's Q3 FY2026 financial report: outwardly exceeding expectations, but the core only met expectations, stock price fell 6.3% in after-hours After Apple released its Q2 2026 financial report, both revenue and EPS exceeded market expectations, but the stock price still plunged in after-hours trading. The reason is not a sudden weakening in demand, but rather that the market has found that the core quality of this financial report is not as strong as the numbers suggest, and next quarter it will face pressures such as chip supply, rising memory prices, and declining gross margins. 1. Overview of Core Data: Apple's revenue this quarter was $109.42 billion, up 16.4% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of $108.8 billion. Net profit was $29.79 billion, up 27.1% year-on-year. EPS was $2.02, above the market expectation of $1.88. However, this unexpected result includes the impact of tariff refunds. Refunds contributed about $0.11 to EPS, and after exclusion, EPS was about $1.91, basically in line with market expectations. The gross margin was similar: 1. The gross margin of the report was 50.1%. About 2 percentage points come from tariff refunds. Adjusted gross margin of approximately 48.1% 4. Basically in line with market expectations. In other words, Apple is not lacking in growth, but the portion that truly exceeded market expectations this quarter is limited. 2. iPhone and Mac remain strong. Apple's hardware revenue performed well this quarter, especially the iPThe market is sending out a lot of mixed signals, which confuses the vast majority of retail traders and causes significant cognitive dissonance. Global liquidity has been expanding, and in past cycles, this situation has brought significant tailwinds to scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold. However, in the current cycle, neither $BTC nor $XAU has reacted as fully as many had expected. This disconnect is perceptible and highlights the complexity of modern markets. In the past, more liquidity often directly translated into higher asset prices. But the market does not move in a straight line; history rarely repeats itself on time. Today, two powerful and opposing forces are pulling asset prices in opposite directions. On one hand, there is the expansion of the global money supply and the promise of long-term monetary easing. On the other hand, there are higher interest rates, tighter financial conditions, and high macroeconomic uncertainty. That's why price action is far less explosive than many bulls expect. The market is waiting for one force to overwhelm the other. From here, one of two things may happen: either liquidity slows down, and the gap between money supply and asset prices naturally closes; Either as financial conditions become more supportive, Bitcoin and gold will eventually catch up. No one knows which will happen first, which is why chasing narratives is so dangerous. You need to observe the data, respect the charts, and let price action validate the story. Scarcity creates value, but timing creates profit. The assets are there, but you have to wait for the right moment to strike.#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
Amazon's Q2 revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20%; AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37%, marking the fastest growth rate since the end of 2021. Operating profit was $16.6 billion, up 64%, with a profit margin rising to 39.4%. Full-year capital expenditure was raised to $220 billion, with Q3 revenue guidance of $197–$202 billion, below market expectations. According to the previous day's script, it should have fallen. As a result, after hours, the stock surged over 9% at one point.
The market is saying the same thing: as long as the cloud continues to accelerate, the story of AI burning money can continue.
(1) Data
AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest quarterly growth since the end of 2021, with an operating margin of 39.4%, continuing to improve from 37.2% in the previous quarter. Full-year capital expenditure was raised to $220 billion, with the vast majority invested in AWS and AI infrastructure. Q3 revenue guidance is $197-202 billion, slightly below market expectations. After hours, the stock rose over 9%, then narrowed to about 6%.
(2) Why did Meta fall while Amazon rose?
Meta and Amazon's earnings report points in the same direction, but the market pricing is completely different.
Meta's Q2 revenue was 60.8 billion, up 28% and exceeded expectations, but net profit was 15.8 billion, down 14% year-on-year, and capital expenditures were raised. What the market sees is: earning less, spending more, and costs spiraling out of control.
Amazon revenue increased by 20%, AWS by 37%, and operating profit by 64%. What the market sees is: earning more, spending money is paying off, and cloud business is accelerating.
The core difference is: AWS's accelerated growth provides direct evidence of capital expenditure—this money is invested, cloud business is accelerating, profits are growing. Meanwhile, Meta's AI investment has yet to translate into sufficiently clear revenue growth. It's not that AI investment itself is problematic, but that the market is asking, "Can this money generate verifiable returns?"
Microsoft is "spending less, getting more"—cutting capital expenditures, Azure accelerating growth, with annual cloud revenue surpassing 100 billion yuan for the first time, and post-hours gains of 8.5%. Amazon is "spending more, earning more"—raising expenses, accelerating AWS growth, improving profits, and post-hours gains of 9%. Meta is "spending more but not profiting"—raising expenses, profits falling, and dropping 7% in after-hours trading.
The same AI story, three pricing options.
(3) Transmission to the crypto market
AWS has reached a nearly four-year high, proving that enterprise AI demand is still accelerating. This is fundamental support for memory chips that rely on AI hardware demand, and the explosive rebound in storage stocks is validating this logic. The post-report sentiment recovery in tech stocks is now spreading to the crypto market, with risk appetite marginally improving, and BTC rebounding from around 63,000 to 65,000.
(4) My judgment
Amazon has proven that AI investment and cloud business returns can form a positive cycle. Meta's decline shows the market does not forgive all cash-burning behaviors, and the market is distinguishing between "AI that can make money" and "AI that is still burning money." For the crypto market, as long as the foundation of AI infrastructure is solid, demand for memory chips will not be interrupted. But as long as sentiment in tech stocks recovers, it will be difficult for the crypto market to break out of the downtrend on its own.
Amazon said, "I spend more, but I also earn more," and the market gave it a 9% increase. Microsoft said, "I spend less, but I earn quite a bit," and the market gave it an 8.5% increase. Meta said, "I spend more, but earn less," and the market gave it a 7% drop. The pricing power of earnings season is shifting from "revenue exceeding expectations" to "whether profits can outperform expenses."
$XAMZN $XMSFT $XMETA In a move highlighting its insatiable demand for AI infrastructure, Amazon has raised its 2026 capital expenditure plan to around $220 billion. This is an upward revision from the previous estimate of $200 billion, representing a significant upward revision. According to Reuters, this news follows Amazon's impressive Q2 earnings report, with AWS (Amazon Web Services) revenue soaring by 37% to $42.2 billion. AWS's revenue reached $16.6 billion, demonstrating the tremendous profitability of its cloud and AI divisions. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy partly attributed the increase in capital expenditure to rising memory prices, highlighting the soaring cost of building AI data centers. The market reacted positively, $AMZN rose 9.1% in after-hours trading. Although Amazon's free cash flow over the past twelve months remains negative $7.6 billion, the market is more focused on strong AWS demand data rather than the short-term negative impact of cash conversion. Jassy further emphasized that Amazon still lacks sufficient capacity to meet all the demand it sees in 2026 and has already seen strong demand continuing into 2028. This is a huge macro signal for the semiconductor and AI hardware industries. The implication is clear: higher spending on memory and AI infrastructure supports the current demand channels for $MU, $SNDK, $WDC, $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, and $MRVL. Even with the capital expenditure threshold remaining high, the basic demand for computing and memory remains strong and accelerating. For crypto tradersThe Federal Reserve hasn't raised rates, but the market has acted as if it has. This may be the biggest news today, highlighting the complex and delicate relationship between macroeconomic policy and asset prices. The FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged, which is favorable for risk assets in a vacuum. However, the tone of the accompanying statement is clearly hawkish. The central bank hinted that, to combat stubborn persistent inflation, it intends to maintain high interest rates for a longer period. This information is enough to cause shockwaves within the financial system. This hawkish stance has driven long-term Treasury yields soaring as the market repricing the path for future rate cuts. This had an immediate impact on the stock market, crushing semiconductor stocks and pushing $BTC down near $64,000. This is a classic reverse case of "bad news is good news," where the accompanying rhetoric is interpreted as not raising interest rates negatively. Let's break down the truly important points. In the stock market, chip stocks have been hit the hardest. The semiconductor sector trades based on forward earnings potential and is highly sensitive to interest rates. Higher yields have depressed the present value of future cash flows, leading to valuation revaluation. The SOX index fell more than 5%, with stocks like $MU and $SNDK experiencing heavy sell-offs. In crypto, $BTC continues to hover around $64,000, with the biggest option pain points and long-short balanced positions trapping prices within a very narrow range. This is the result of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. $ETH shows the strongest relative strength relative to BTC, which is an interesting development, while $SOL continues to lag, reflecting thisThese are my insights and reflections from reading and studying Abu's "Price Behavior," recorded for my review and reflections in crypto trading. The writing is lively and colloquial, suitable for friends with some background in price behavior studies to discuss and learn together. Please do not repost. To start with the conclusion: As a retail investor who has studied wave theory, Dow Theory, Turtle, and Chan theory for many years, I believe Abu's Price Action is the most reasonable and logical basis for explaining market behavior for retail investors like me. What is my understanding of price behavior? I patiently finished reading his three books and videos in about four months. My biggest impression was that I didn't really learn any specific patterns or entry methods, but I was starting to get closer to the essence of the market. He seriously taught me how to analyze the market from the perspectives of science and mathematical expectations, what traders are thinking, why prices fluctuate, and the classification, evolution, and patterns of price movements. Most of the time, I am very clear about the current market situation, such as within channels and trading ranges. Due to market inertia, most reversals and breakouts will fail. What retail investors need to do is follow the market and add positions within the channel, manage your hands within the trading range, and dare to chase in during breakouts. Learning how to truly view market behavior can improve your chances of trading successfully. Is it easy to learn? Not easy to learn, really hard to learn. First, Abu coined some jargon and his writing was obscure. On top of that, the three domestic books were extremely cumbersome, filled with case studies analyzing candlestick lines one by one, making them very unreadable. The second is AbuHere is what Strategy is actually doing, and why it makes sense even if $BTC looks cheap right now.
Strategy is changing how it plays the game. Before, the playbook was simple: raise capital, buy $BTC, repeat. Now they are saying two things. One, they will keep selling some $BTC. Two, they will not put 100 percent of new capital into $BTC anymore.
Why sell when prices are low? Because companies are not just traders. They have bills, debt payments, and shareholders to answer to. Selling a portion locks in liquidity. It gives them cash to run operations, pay down debt, or buy back stock without having to raise new money in a bad market. Think of it as taking chips off the table so the company stays alive through any cycle.
Why stop putting all new capital into $BTC? Because concentration is risky. If everything is in one asset, one drawdown hits the whole balance sheet. By diversifying where new money goes, Strategy reduces risk and keeps optionality. That could mean other treasury assets, buying back their own stock, investing in the business, or waiting for even better entries later.
This is not a call that $BTC is dead. It is risk management at scale. Buy aggressively on the way up, trim and diversify when volatility gets wild, and do not bet the entire treasury on every dip.
So low prices do not automatically mean buy everything. For a public company, survival and flexibility come first. They are choosing to stay in the game long term instead of going all-in on every swing.
That is the shift.
#MSFT450BInADay #AMZNMissesButRallies #SoftPCEStrongDemand After a long period of outflows, the latest data shows that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have turned positive, marking a significant shift in market sentiment. According to CoinMarketCap data, spot BTC ETFs recorded a net inflow of $32.1 million on Wednesday. Previously, the market had seen outflows for four consecutive trading days, indicating that some investors are beginning to view the current price level as a buying opportunity. Although $32.1 million may seem insignificant in the grand narrative of global finance, it holds symbolic meaning within the crypto ecosystem. It suggests that the ongoing selling pressure that once plagued the market may be easing. In contrast, Ethereum funds remain in negative territory, with several major funds reporting ongoing outflows. This divergence has brought Bitcoin a relatively small tailwind, allowing it to outperform Ethereum in the short term. The divergence between the two major assets indicates that capital rotation is underway. Investors are pulling out of Ethereum and turning to Bitcoin, perhaps seeking the relative security and simplicity of the largest digital asset during times of macroeconomic uncertainty. The chart clearly shows this divergence in performance, with BTC tending toward stability while ETH continues to struggle. This dynamic is a key indicator that traders need to pay attention to. If BTC can maintain this positive momentum and sustained capital inflows, it may signal a broader bottoming process in the cryptocurrency market. However, if outflows recover or the rebound fails to break through key resistance levels, this positive turn may only be a temporary fluctuation. The next few days will be crucial and will determine what is truly a trend turn📊 $BNB Contract Liquidation Express (July 31)
According to liquidation data, be careful not to short, or you'll be pinned down by the dealers...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was about $1,024.69
Long orders have zero liquidation
Short liquidation is about $1,024.69
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was about $27,200
Long positions were liquidated by about $26,000
Short liquidation was about $1,165.94
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $201,400
Long positions were liquidated at about $39,800
Short positions were liquidated by about $161,600
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $1.3292 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $49,600
Short positions were liquidated by about $1.2796 million
According to $BNB liquidation data, 100% of the shorts were liquidated within 1 hour, with short squeezes at the open; Within 4-24 hours, short liquidations crushed the bulls, leading to continuous large-scale liquidations. The market showed a unilateral extreme short squeeze, with 24-hour short liquidations 25.8 times those of bulls, and the scale of liquidations rapidly expanded within the 12-24 hour range. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being liquidated.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 31st
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the coexistence of cooling inflation and slowing growth, and the AI narrative is undergoing intense divergence—the market rewards are no longer just "money-burning narratives," but "efficiency in spending money" and "real cloud revenue."
📉 PCE turned negative month-on-month, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%: inflation cooled but growth was worrying
The US June PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first monthly negative increase since 2020. Core PCE slightly declined year-on-year from 3.4% to 3.3%. The cooling of inflation was mainly due to a drop in oil prices following the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.
On the same day, Q2 GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth was only 1.5%, lower than Q1's 2.1%. However, the growth rate of private consumption + investment, which reflects domestic demand, rebounded to 3.9%, the fastest since the beginning of 2023. Imports, inventories, and government spending dragged down GDP, while consumption clearly rebounded, and AI-driven corporate investment continued to grow rapidly. The "substance" of the economy is more solid than the "face."
📈 Amazon Web Services business explodes, rising nearly 10% after hours: AI spending has paid off
Amazon's Q2 revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20% year-on-year. AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth since 2021. CEO Jassi stated that the annualized revenue from AWS's AI business has exceeded $25 billion. Net profit was $62.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 245%. The stock price surged nearly 10% in after-hours trading.
The market ignored the upward revision of capital expenditure to $220 billion, free cash flow turning negative by $7.6 billion, and Q3 guidance slightly below expectations. AWS's explosive growth proves that AI investment is paying off, sharply contrasting with Google's plunge after raising spending, and Microsoft's spike after maintaining spending—the market rewards not the spending itself, but the efficiency of the spending.
📊 Microsoft's market value increased by 450 billion in a single day, setting a new record for US stocks
Microsoft surged 15.5% on Thursday, marking its largest single-day gain since October 2008, with its market value increasing by $450 billion in a single day and setting a new record for the largest single-day market capitalization growth in U.S. stock market history. Microsoft's stock price rose 15.51% in a single day, with a market capitalization of approximately $3.35 trillion. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also surged over 8%, ending a five-day losing streak. A consensus is forming in the capital markets: the winners in AI are companies that can turn computing power investment into real cloud revenue.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the same turning point: PCE turning negative and GDP slowing coexist, with contradictions within economic data; Amazon proved with AWS's explosive growth that AI investments can pay off, soaring nearly 10% in after-hours trading; Microsoft's single-day market value increased by 450 billion, setting a new US stock market record—the market's rewards were no longer just "money-burning narratives," but "efficiency in spending" and "real cloud revenue." The old AI valuation logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is taking shape. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
#微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for the US stock market A single bullish candle on BTC does not confirm demand; directional validity only exists when volume and open interest move together. Are coins that appear to be rising actually receiving capital inflows, or is this a temporary beta play in a low risk appetite environment? The $BEAT case provides a key clue. Although the price has risen, volume is weak and open interest is decreasing. This combination likely indicates price distortion caused by the liquidation of existing positions rather than new position entries. It means market participants are selectively approaching specific assets rather than broadly joining FOMO. The current market is closer to a liquidity rotation phase than an alt season. The assets driving price increases—$JELLYJELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP, $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS—are reasonably seen as movements created by short-term speculative capital flows rather than real demand. On the other hand, $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMPCurrently, $BULLA is in a very strong bullish trend, with increased volume breaking through the previous range and approaching previous highs. The moving averages are in a standard bullish alignment, with bullish positions as the main tone; However, due to excessive short-term gains and high deviation rates, aggressive chasing is not advisable. It is better to wait for a pullback to the moving average or support level to stabilize before entering, and strictly set stop-losses to prevent profit-taking selling pressure and trigger sharp volatility.Guys, UNI rose 3.99% today, currently priced at $4.502, up directly from $3.96. On July 29, Uniswap launched its "Launches" aggregation page, bringing together new tokens from Robinhood Chain platforms like Bankr and Pons into one interface—over 340,000 new tokens were listed in July alone, with monthly trading volume reaching $3.6 billion. Robinhood Chain's token issuance platform saw a weekly trading volume of $1.23 billion, with TVL tripling from mid-July to $312 million. The V4 protocol fee activation proposal is currently in the Snapshot voting phase, planning to launch protocol fees on 11 chains including Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Base. After entering TokenJar, it will be burned across chains. UNI will shift from a "pure governance token" to a "deflationary asset supported by protocol revenue"—the expectation window combined with product data, and the market is repricing. UNI is currently at 4.502, currently testing the key resistance at 4.58; a breakout is worth looking for between 4.80 and 5.00. The first support below is 4.17, with core support at 4.05-4.10. RSI is near the 74 overbought zone. If V4 passes the vote, UNI's valuation logic will be completely changed. Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $UNI #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, but stock prices rebounded by 9% #微☀️ "Bitcoin Market Morning Train: Core Data and Information Overview"
Friends, now is the time! Currently, $BTC is above 65,000, with a July increase of over 10%, but volume still can't keep up. Whether 65K can hold remains to be seen.
Three opposing votes at the FOMC + PCE inflation cooling—the macro card is already played.
However, the market was as quiet as before a storm: $9.6 billion in options was settled today, the US-Iran war reignited, and the discount on Korean kimchi widened—three things were laid out one by one.
1⃣Quick overview of the BTC market
BTC is currently quoted around 65,200, having briefly surged above 65,000 overnight before slightly pulling back. The intraday low reached 63, rebounded after 199, and the 63K support held continuously. The Fear and Greed Index is 29, still in the fear range.
On the four-hour chart, both bulls and bears remain in a stalemate, with clear boundaries between resistance above and support below, volatility continuing to narrow, and a window of market reversal approaching.
2⃣ Core data from the past 24 hours
In 24 hours, 243 million USD was liquidated, long positions 143 million yuan, short positions less than 100 million yuan, and short-term funds chasing highs were washed out again. The US dollar index fell below 101 to 100.84, while gold broke above $4,100. WTI crude oil is around $84-85, with a geopolitical premium still in place.
3⃣ Market Entity Behavior
(1) ETF Institutional Capital Flows:
Yesterday (July 30), Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $50 million, ending a four-day streak of net outflows.
BlackRock IBIT contributed $89.8281 million and remains the absolute main player. Fidelity's FBTC outflowed by 43.0832 million, and ARKB by 14.6421 million. After ending four days of outflows, it has been two consecutive days of net inflows, but it is all supported by BlackRock alone.
(2) BTC inflows and outflows from exchanges:
Net flow on exchanges is close to zero, with inflows and outflows basically balanced, no large-scale selling orders, and no signs of liquidity tightening.
(3) Whales and Miners:
On-chain data shows that there is currently no capitulation selling, and whales are still continuously buying BTC on dips. Miners' MPI is negative, with selling pressure at multi-year lows.
(4) Retail Investors' BTC Trading Situation:
The premium on Korean kimchi has expanded to -2.05%, with the discount expansion related to the government's confirmation that the crypto tax will be launched as scheduled in January 2027, with profits over 2.5 million won subject to a 22% tax rate.
This is essentially telling South Korean retail investors: if you don't sell now, you'll have to pay taxes if you sell next year. The discount has widened from -1.46% a day ago to -2.05%, with Koreans throwing their chips out the door.
(5) Order book pending data:
There is active support below 64K, and above 64.5-65K, fixed orders form a selling pressure wall. Long/short orders are balanced, with no obvious one-sided advantage.
4⃣ Special attention today
First, $9.6 billion in Bitcoin options expire today.
This is the largest option expiry event in 2026, with a nominal value of about $9.6 billion, including $7.5 billion in call options and $2.1 billion in put options.
The $70,000-$72,000 range is concentrated with about $3.3 billion in bullish spread positions, which are highly likely to be zero at the current 65K price.
Only 5.46% of call options are in the money, while put options are in the money at 18.29%. The total gamma value of 43.6% will be reset at this expiration, and after market makers unhedge their positions, suppressed volatility may be released.
Second, the US-Iran war reignited, and the ceasefire ended after 48 hours.
On July 26, the U.S. and Iran briefly paused, causing oil prices to plunge 16% over three days. However, on July 29, Iran launched ballistic missiles at U.S. military bases in Jordan, breaking the informal ceasefire after 48 hours. WTI oil prices rebounded by more than 5%.
The geopolitical premium on oil prices will not easily fade; inflation expectations are closely tied to oil prices, and the logic behind Fed rate cut expectations is being reverse-priced by energy shocks.
Third, large-denomination stablecoin movements: about 500 million USDT was transferred from Binance hot wallets to Tether Treasury addresses.
The market interpreted this as a technical network switch (ERC-20 → other low-fee networks) rather than a liquidity withdrawal, so BTC did not experience significant volatility.
Fourth, liquidation risk: If BTC falls below $61,524, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CECs will reach $1.325 billion; if it breaks $67,712, the strength of short liquidation will reach $1.071 billion.
5⃣ Core judgment
$9.6 billion in options delivery took place today; if a large number of call options are wiped out, bull confidence could be shaken.
However, a 43.6% gamma reset can also lift short-term price suppression from market makers. The direction may become clear after the delivery.
The renewed conflict between the US and Iran means that geopolitical risk premiums are being re-priced into asset prices. This logic is clear and rigid: the ceasefire is broken→ the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists→ oil prices remain high→ inflation expectations are rising→ Fed rate cut expectations are suppressed→ and risk assets are under pressure.
65K is the exam hall, not the finish line. Let option delivery land first, let the high-volume candlestick confirm the direction first. 🎯As RWA tokenization continues to expand and compliant tokenized products in the US stock market fully enter the eyes of ordinary investors, traditional air-conditioned projects in the crypto world—relying on narrative packaging, VC chip harvesting, and malicious manipulation by manipulation—are being systematically abandoned by the market. Whether it's VC Dogou coins packaged by capital or purely sentiment-driven meme coins, both have lost the soil for long-term existence, and elimination is only a matter of time. Simply put: when high-quality assets are readily available, who would still gamble on an air VC coin that could run away at any time or VCs unlock large sums to crash the market (the same goes for MEME coins). 1. Compliant tokenization in US stocks is widespread, quality assets can be accessed with low barriers, and junk tokens have completely lost their value as substitutes. Previously, retail investors flooded into altcoins and VC project coins largely because of high-quality US stock targets, high investment thresholds for overseas quality assets, complicated exchange and account opening processes, and many had to settle for the next best option. Look for speculative targets in the crypto market as alternatives. Now that the SEC has released tokenization rules for US stocks, platforms like Binance have launched tokenized perpetual and spot US products. Ordinary users can trade Apple, energy sectors, indices, and other underlying assets with real revenue, real business, and compliance regulations 24/7 using only crypto accounts. 1. Vast Differences in Value: Behind US stock tokens are listed companies' net profits, quarterly dividends, and real operating cash flows, with price fluctuations relying on corporate fundamentals; The vast majority of junk VC coins have no revenue, no product launches, and no real users; their only value lies in the unlocking pressure expectations of primary market VCs and teams. 2The current volatility in US stocks is even more stimulating than in the crypto world.
In just two days, SanDisk surged 42.4%, and SK Hynix surged 40.7%.
Market sentiment shifts faster than flipping a page.
I have two perspectives
1⃣ I've always said: this AI revolution isn't a bubble, but a redistribution of wealth.
U.S. stocks have surged dramatically in recent years, especially in the AI industry chain. Many companies have already increased several times or even more than ten times. When valuations outpace earnings, a correction is inevitable.
I prefer to understand this round of decline as a wash of profit-taking, deleveraging, and repricing, rather than a change in industry logic.
Recent financial reports confirm this: Microsoft continues to increase AI revenue, SK hynix keeps expanding capital expenditures, and long-term HBM orders are rising, indicating that AI infrastructure construction has not stopped.
Extending the timeline to five or even ten years, every major pullback triggered by sentiment is often an opportunity to reposition in quality assets. The key is to control your position size, not go all-in all at once.
2⃣ These past two days, I think it's been a rebound, not a reversal.
In just two days, the storage sector increased its market value by several hundred billion dollars, mostly due to valuation recovery after previous overselling.
Whether this round of market can truly surge, two conditions will still be considered.
First: When will the Fed truly enter a rate-cutting cycle?
Second: Can AI investment continue to turn into profits, not just capital expenditures?
Currently, macro variables such as high interest rates, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts have not improved, and the liquidity environment does not support a unilateral rise in U.S. stocks.
So I lean toward this round as a recovery, not a new main upward wave.
The hardest part of investing isn't finding the right direction, but maintaining your own rhythm even when emotions are at its peak.Crypto Daily · Friday, July 31, 2026
1. Today's summary in one sentence
With hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve weighing down BTC below $64K, bulls had a tough time today.
2. Market thermometer
Panic
The Fed remains unchanged but remains hawkish; inflation hasn't come down to 4.2%, ETF funds are flowing out, and sentiment can't hold up.
3. Today's core market highlights
BTC：~$64,200 | 24h: About -1.5% | Breaking below the $64K integer level, short-term support is being tested, which is not a good sign
ETH：~$1,925 | 24h: approximately +0.9% | Relatively resistant to decline, but average volume, don't be too optimistic
Today's strongest sector: AI/tech stock tokens | Representative: SKHYNIX (SK Hynix on-chain token)| 24h +26.7% [2] (Market speculating on semiconductor + AI narrative)
Today's weakest sector: Meme/Small Cap | Representative: KORU | A rapid pullback from the +35% high to -9% OI, a typical case of a rally followed by a crash
4. The most important news of the day
[Fed July Meeting: Hold Steady, Hawkish Wording]
[Title] Fed Keeps Interest Rates Steady, Inflation Remains High at 4.2%, Forward Guidance Leans Toward Tightening
[Impact] Short-term direct suppression of risk assets, BTC ETFs see $82.2 million outflow in a single day, market pricing in "delayed rate cuts"
[My Judgment] I think the market reaction is still insufficient. The 4.2% inflation figure is more stubborn than expected. If August CPI does not fall, expectations for a rate cut in September will be completely shattered, and that will be the real stress test. Honestly, this drop is a bit light.
[Tesla considers selling its China business, paving the way for merger with SpaceX]
[Title] WSJ: Tesla executives discuss divesting China business, options including spin-off, sale, or factory closure
[Impact] On-chain SPCX (SpaceX token) showed significant movement today, and this news directly triggered it; In the medium term, uncertainty in TSLA's China business is increasing
[My Judgment] This is the most interesting news of the day. If the Tesla + SpaceX merger really progresses, it would be structurally beneficial for SPCX tokens, but how the Chinese business is handled is the real variable—factory closures are the worst outcome. The market is currently pricing in an "optimistic script," which I think is moving a bit too fast.
[Robinhood Chain Meme Craze Continues, RWA Narrative Follows]
[Title] Gate Research: Robinhood On-Chain Meme Remains Hot, RWA Infrastructure Still Under Construction
[Impact] Short-term sentiment in the meme sector remains, but KORU's sharp drop in OI today indicates that smart money is withdrawing, and retail investors are at high risk of taking over
[My Judgment] I didn't participate in this meme wave, watching KORU jump from +35% to OI plunge by -9%. This is the standard dealer selling rhythm. If you're still chasing now, you're in for the best.
5. Signals to Watch Today
Signal (1)
Signal: SK Hynix token (SKHYNIX) single-day +26.7%, OI sharply declined by -18.8%
Why it's worth watching: The price is rising but OI is falling, indicating that the rise is driven by short sellers being forced out, not by new bulls, so sustainability is questionable
Tracking cycle: Short-term
Signal (2)
Signal: BTC ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $82.2 million
Why it's worth watching: Institutional funds are withdrawing, which is not retail investor behavior and is directly linked to the Fed's hawkish stance. Watch next week's ETF data
Tracking cycle: Short-term
Signal (3)
Signal: ETH performed relatively strongly against BTC today, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate slightly recovering
Why it's worth noting: The last time this divergence occurred was often when funds briefly rotated into ETH when BTC was under pressure, but that doesn't mean ETH is truly strong—it's more likely that BTC is weak
Tracking cycle: Short-term
6. Preview of tomorrow's key events
🗓 [Tonight Eastern Time] Follow-up analysis from Federal Reserve Chair Powell's press conference
→ Expected impact: Bearish, if hawkish rhetoric continues to be amplified by the media, BTC may test the $63K support again
🗓 [Next Monday] US July ISM Manufacturing PMI
→ Expected impact: Neutral to bearish; if data is weak, recession fears combined with high interest rates create double pressure
🗓 [Ongoing Tracking] Progress of Tesla's China business divestiture
→ Expected impact: Long (SPCX) / Short (TSLA short-term), news-driven, possible reversal at any time
7. Maobidao's views today
Honestly, I watched this market for quite a while today, and BTC was hovering around $64K, which was tough to watch. I had long expected the Fed not to cut rates this time, but the 4.2% inflation figure is really a bit hot — the window for rate cuts is getting narrower, and the market hasn't fully priced in yet. ETH is relatively strong today, but I won't chase it because of this. When the market is good, make more money; when the market is bad, lose less. At this level, I choose to wait.#PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
昨晚PCE数据一出来，刷到好多人直接喊“加息周期彻底结束”
我反倒觉得市场乐观得有点早。这更像单月数据扰动，远没到通胀趋势性降温的地步。
说两个我最在意的点：
一是这次环比转负，基本靠能源、耐用品降价撑着，核心服务通胀的粘性压根没消。核心PCE同比还是3.3%，刚好踩在预期线上，一点超预期下行的信号都没有，根本撑不起“9月不加息甚至要降息”的定价。
二是GDP增速1.5%看着不及预期，但拆开看国内私人最终销售增速3.9%，是2023年初以来的新高。说白了内需其实还很强，经济没那么弱，美联储没理由突然转鸽。
现在CME显示9月加息概率直接掉到30%附近，我觉得这个定价太偏乐观了。后面只要再来一次通胀数据反弹，预期马上又得来回摇摆。
我自己的操作很实在：合约已经把杠杆压到很低，多空都没重仓赌，等9月决议前信号明朗再说；现货仓位没动，既不追高也不瞎抄底，震荡行情管住手比啥都强。
真别看到一个月数据就喊“通胀见顶”，去年这种假摔都演过好几回了。
你们觉得这次是真的降温拐点，还是单月扰动？#PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
PCE环比转负，六年来第一次！
美国6月PCE物价指数环比下降0.1%，是2020年疫情以来首次月度负增长。同比从4.1%回落至3.7%，核心PCE同比3.3%、符合预期。
同一时间公布的Q2 GDP年化增速1.5%，低于预期的2.1%。但剔除净出口、库存与政府支出后的国内私人最终销售增长3.9%，创2023年初以来新高。
一组看起来矛盾的数据，实际上指向同一个方向。
① 为什么PCE环比转负了？
能源价格下行是核心原因。6月美伊达成临时停火协议，油价阶段性回落，直接拖累了整体PCE。汽油价格下降带动能源成本缓和，才是这次转负的真实推动力。
但核心PCE同比仍在3.3%，已连续第六年高于美联储2%的目标。通胀的结构性问题没有解决，只是暂时被油价压住了。
② GDP只有1.5%，但内需很强
Q2 GDP增速从Q1的2.1%放缓到1.5%。但细看结构——消费者支出增长3.2%，远高于Q1的0.5%；企业非住宅投资增长8.4%。AI投资热潮是核心驱动力。
净出口下降拖累了整体数据，因为美国进口了大量AI服务器和半导体设备。这不是经济不行，是美国正在拼命建AI基础设施。
消费强+AI投资热+通胀降——这是美联储最想要的“软着陆”剧本。
③ 对加密市场意味着什么？
PCE转负之前，FOMC刚以9:3维持利率不变，三票反对主张加息。市场对9月加息的定价一度冲到57%。但PCE转负之后，这个定价面临重新校准。
市场交易的从来不是幅度，是方向。六年来第一次转负——“第一次”本身就是信号。名义利率的顶基本确认了。市场不再恐慌“还要加多少”，开始博弈“什么时候降”。
数据公布后，BTC一度突破65,000美元，日内涨约2%。美元指数跌超0.9%，创1月以来最大单日跌幅。金价也重回4,100美元上方。
④ 但需要留意两个风险
第一，油价的扰动还能持续多久？ 美伊临时停火协议的稳定性存疑。一旦协议破裂，油价反弹，通胀预期会重新升温。核心PCE同比3.3%意味着通胀的结构性问题没解决。
第二，PCE转负是趋势起点还是单月扰动？ 6月的数据很可能是一次性因素驱动的——油价下跌。市场需要7月的数据来裁决。
市场已经把PCE转负解读为“加息周期尾声”的信号。但这个判断建立在油价不反弹的前提上。油价一涨，叙事就会重新切换。 今晚的数据让加密市场短暂喘了口气，9月的方向取决于7月的通胀数据和中东的导弹什么时候停下来。#微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录
This bullish candlestick from Microsoft is worth a closer look for people in the crypto circle.
The market value increased by nearly 450 billion in a single day, setting a new record in the US stock market. In two days, it rose from 2.8 trillion to 3.3 trillion. This is not an ordinary earnings rebound; the market is repricing the entire AI sector's valuation anchor.
Previously, the market's attitude toward AI was— the more you spend, the higher valuation I give you; the bigger the pie, the better. Meta raised its spending guidance this week but dropped nearly 8% after hours, indicating that this logic no longer works. Spending more is not the problem; the problem is that the money spent must show returns.
This time, Microsoft provided a reference point—AI investment can indeed turn into revenue, and the growth rate can exceed expectations. The significance for the crypto circle is: when the valuation logic of tech stocks stabilizes, the crypto market, as part of risk assets, will not be too low overall.
But it should also be clear that this bullish candlestick from Microsoft does not mean that Bitcoin is about to take off. Tech stocks are rising due to "performance fulfillment," and the crypto circle has not yet reached that stage. However, Microsoft's stabilization of tech stock sentiment at least provides a relatively friendly macro environment for the crypto market.
This bullish candlestick tells the market one truth—the real support for valuation is never the story itself, but the process of turning the story into profit.
$ETH $GRVT $SNDK What really caught my attention was that high-level detail starting to change. $VIRTUAL Several consecutive rally attempts failed to sustain it; the price appears strong, but actual support is weakening.
I chose to short near 0.6345. At that time, I didn't rush to broaden my judgment, just following my habits and waiting for the rebound to confirm it was weak before executing. After short positions entered, the market rhythm gradually weakened, and the trend responded.
Currently, the price has returned to 0.5674, showing a return of +211.18%. This isn't just guessing, but waiting for the pressure to be confirmed before putting the plan into action. After making a profit, what you need to do is control drawdowns and stay clear-headed.
Understanding changes is more important than chasing market trends. When opportunity comes, execution is more important than hesitation. If you haven't kept up, don't worry—trading isn't about a one-time result, but about long-term rhythm.
$BTC $ETH 《本周收官日美股与币圈全天走势研判》
今晚是美股本周最后一个交易日，叠加PCE通胀数据公布，盘面避险兑现氛围会贯穿全程。
机构资金普遍存在周末降仓惯例，不愿带着高位风险仓位度过两日休市空窗期。
叠加美联储三名委员坚持加息的鹰派信号尚未消化，多头做多意愿大幅收敛。
隔夜纳指大幅反弹之后，短线获利盘集中了结是当下主流资金动作。
美股科技板块内部依旧维持极致分化格局。
微软凭借超预期业绩守住高位，算力硬件、存储芯片进入震荡消化阶段。
闪迪这类高波动周期品种上行空间受限，上方套牢抛压会持续压制涨幅。
消费电子、社交平台类个股走势偏弱，很难迎来补涨行情。
今晚PCE数据将直接决定收盘最终形态。
通胀数据偏高，美债收益率上行，美股大概率冲高回落收周线阴线。
倘若通胀回落，降息预期回暖，盘面会小幅收涨，但依旧难有大幅拉升行情。
整体收官基调以震荡拉锯、兑现周内收益为主，单边行情很难出现。
币圈整体弱势格局会进一步凸显，依旧摆脱不了跟跌不跟涨的特性。
美股休市期间机构ETF暂停交易，场内流动性大幅缩水，盘面波动会被持续放大。
只要宏观紧缩预期没有消解，加密资产反弹力度永远滞后于美股科技股。
周末地缘、政策突发风险较多，杠杆资金大多会选择节前平仓避险。
短期二者都以观望防守为宜，不宜新开重仓头寸博弈行情。
本周行情收官过后，下周开盘又会迎来怎样的开局节奏？
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5% #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 🚨 $MSFT May Have Shifted the AI Narrative
Microsoft is up strongly in the pre-market after its latest earnings report, with investors reacting positively to management's outlook.
The biggest takeaway wasn't just AI growth—it was the message around profitability.
According to management, Microsoft expects to become free cash flow (FCF) positive next year, easing concerns that AI spending would continue to overwhelm cash generation.
That matters because one of the market's biggest questions has been:
Can AI investment eventually translate into sustainable returns?
Another notable point:
🤖 Copilot now has around 30 million paid seats, showing that adoption continues to grow even as the product evolves.
Microsoft's strategy has often been less about having the most advanced product and more about delivering something that's reliable, widely adopted, and integrated into its existing ecosystem.
Whether other hyperscalers can follow the same path remains an open question.
For now, the focus may begin shifting from:
📈 "How much are companies spending on AI?"
to
💰 "How efficiently can they turn that spending into profits and free cash flow?"
If that narrative continues, it could have broader implications for AI infrastructure, cloud providers, and the wider tech sector.
$MSFT $NVDA $AMZN $GOOGL
#SoftPCEStrongDemand #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay $BTC "Overall Future Trend Analysis of US Stocks and the Crypto Sector"
The gap in strength between the two has now solidified, and the pace will continue to diverge. $BTC
The Fed has three internal votes supporting rate hikes, and tightening concerns have consistently suppressed the upside of these two risk assets. $ETH
Tonight's PCE inflation data is the core watershed for the short-term market direction. $DOGE
If inflation figures remain elevated, hawkish expectations will heat up again, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher.
US tech stocks will collectively come under pressure and retreat, with storage and computing hardware pullbacks leading the way.
The crypto sector's decline will far exceed that of US stocks, and risk-averse selling pressure on crypto assets without cash flow support will concentrate.
Once inflation steadily declines and expectations for rate cuts warm, both markets will simultaneously enter a recovery rally.
US stocks are more resilient in realizing profits from AI, with the computing power sector leading the rebound.
The crypto sector can only passively follow small gains and finds it difficult to achieve an independent strong rally.
From a medium-term perspective, structural rallies in the US stock market will continue over the coming months.
Funds will only cluster around leading companies like Microsoft and Nvidia that deliver stable results.
Memory chips rely on cyclical price increases and fluctuate in waves, with high volatility but still trading opportunities.
Weak earnings stocks like Apple and Meta will continue to weaken, and sector fragmentation will not disappear.
The crypto sector as a whole remains weak, with the tendency to follow declines but not rises and is hard to reverse.
Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net capital outflows, and institutional funds are generally withdrawn.
Altcoins lack incremental capital support, resulting in a prolonged sluggish profit-making effect.
Only after the Federal Reserve clearly initiates a rate-cutting cycle and liquidity is fully relaxed.
Only then will the crypto world experience a sustained bull market; for now, it can only maintain a range-bound grinding range.
Overall summary: In the short term, wait for inflation to decide the direction; in the medium term, the established pattern is strong US stocks and weak crypto sectors.
Before the signal of liquidity easing arrives, it will be difficult for the crypto market to completely reverse the weak situation.
After inflation is implemented, what holding strategies are suitable for each market segment? #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks 🚀 $XMU /USDT Update 🚀
The price jumped from $723 up to $908 after a big drop! 📈
Key levels to watch:
📉 Support: $855 and $723
📈 Resistance: $904 and $1,012
Current view:
Price is staying around the $904 line. RSI is balanced at 55 ⚖️
If price stays above $904, it can go up toward $1,012 📈
If price drops below $855, it might go back down toward $723 📉
Not financial advice. Always do your own research! 🧠💡
#SoftPCEStrongDemand
#OKXTraderVoices 📊 $SUI Contract Liquidation Express (July 31)
According to liquidation data, short sellers be careful, the dog whales are grinding you down...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $126.06
Long position liquidations: 0
Short position liquidations: about $126.06
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $26,700
Long position liquidations: about $26,500
Short position liquidations: about $126.06
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $115,000
Long position liquidations: about $111,400
Short position liquidations: about $3,512.06
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $259,200
Long position liquidations: about $119,500
Short position liquidations: about $139,700
From the $SUI liquidation data, short liquidations in the 1-hour window account for 100%, indicating a brief short squeeze disturbance at market open but with a very small scale; from 4 to 12 hours, long liquidations overwhelm shorts, triggering a fierce long squeeze; in 24 hours, short liquidations surpass longs, reversing direction, with longs and shorts nearly balanced, shorts winning by a slight margin. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get liquidated.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | July 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: coexistence of cooling inflation and slowing growth, with AI narratives undergoing intense divergence—the market no longer rewards "burning money narratives" but rather "spending efficiency" and "real cloud revenue."
📉 PCE turns negative month-over-month, GDP growth slows to 1.5%: Inflation cools but growth worries remain
The US June PCE price index fell 0.1% month-over-month, the first monthly decline since 2020. Core PCE year-over-year slightly dropped from 3.4% to 3.3%. Inflation cooling mainly benefited from oil price declines after the US and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement.
The Q2 GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter growth released the same day was only 1.5%, lower than Q1's 2.1%. However, private consumption plus investment, reflecting domestic demand, rebounded to 3.9%, the fastest since early 2023. Imports, inventories, and government spending dragged GDP down, while consumption clearly warmed, and AI-driven corporate investment maintained high growth. The economy's "substance" is more solid than its "appearance."
📈 Amazon cloud business explodes, after-hours up nearly 10%: AI spending pays off
Amazon Q2 revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year. AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37%, the fastest growth since 2021. CEO Jassy stated AWS AI business annualized revenue has exceeded $25 billion. Net profit was $62.6 billion, up 245% year-over-year. After-hours stock price surged nearly 10%.
The market ignored the capital expenditure increase to $220 billion, free cash flow turning negative $7.6 billion, and Q3 guidance slightly below expectations. AWS's explosive growth proves AI investment is paying off, contrasting sharply with Google's plunge after raising spending and Microsoft's surge after maintaining spending—the market rewards not spending itself but spending efficiency.
📊 Microsoft market value increases by $450 billion in one day, setting a US stock market record
Microsoft surged 15.5% on Thursday, the largest single-day gain since October 2008, with market value increasing by $450 billion in one day, setting the largest single-day market value increase record in US stock market history. Microsoft's stock price rose 15.51% in one day, with market value reaching about $3.35 trillion. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also surged over 8%, ending a five-day losing streak. Consensus is forming in the capital market: AI winners are those who can convert computing power investment into real cloud revenue.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the same turning point: PCE turning negative and GDP slowing coexist, economic data is internally contradictory; Amazon proves AI investment can pay off with AWS's explosive growth and after-hours surge of nearly 10%; Microsoft’s market value increased by $450 billion in one day, setting a US stock market record—the market no longer rewards "burning money narratives" but "spending efficiency" and "real cloud revenue." The old AI valuation logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is forming. #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
#微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 BTC's surge from last night to today was triggered by the PCE data unexpectedly cooling down, opening up dovish space. The main logic at this stage should be low expectations. This kind of localized volatility tests rhythm more than a one-sided move; if not handled well, it’s easy to get hit from both sides, full of traps.
Although there has been some recovery in the past two days, I have consistently emphasized the big picture: Coinbase spot trading volume has not increased correspondingly; compared to the 30-day average, it has declined. The index is in the fear zone, with no new funds bottom-fishing. The only outcome is a crash;
To achieve a reversal, volume must rise in sync with price (OI increasing) + a volume breakout above 67k with daily close above it, or strengthened rate cut expectations, or regulatory benefits boosting risk sentiment... Currently, all of these are quite difficult, very difficult.
Today, I continue to hold the view of watching above 65k. The recovery should end here. Next, watch 63k then 61k. Good luck to everyone! In this round, US tech stocks have rebounded strongly from the bottom, but the crypto market has struggled to keep up with the rally throughout, with the gap between strength and weakness continuing to widen.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The Nasdaq closed sharply higher yesterday, with storage and computing hardware across the board showing a rebound recovery.
Bitcoin and Ethereum only traded slightly sideways, while altcoins were generally under pressure and weakened, with their profit-making effect nearly exhausted.
The core driving force is the complete disconnect of the underlying logic behind the rise in the two major markets.
This round of US stock rebounds is supported by solid AI revenue realized by Microsoft and Nvidia, with solid cash flow providing solid support.
Capital is willing to continuously flow into tech leaders with certain profits, and even in a high interest rate environment, they have the ability to withstand it.
Crypto assets have no revenue or financial endorsements, and their pricing relies entirely on liquidity and speculative sentiment, resulting in extremely poor risk resistance.
Three members within the Federal Reserve advocate for rate hikes, tightening expectations repeatedly surface, and the continued suppression of interest-free speculative asset valuations.
U.S. stock funds can hold their positions based on fundamentals, and crypto funds have maintained a high willingness to exit as a safe-haven player.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue their phased net outflows, with institutional funds gradually withdrawing from the crypto sector.
Existing funds are continuously being unlocked by tokens and consumed by project selling pressure, resulting in a severe lack of self-sustaining capacity on the market.
The market has long shown a tendency to follow the decline but not the rise: during US pullbacks, the crypto sector drops even deeper, and the gains during the rebound phase lag far behind.
Right now, the capital priorities are clear: US Treasuries, US US hash rate assets> gold> mainstream cryptocurrencies> various altcoins.
Tonight's PCE inflation data marks a short-term turning point, and the elevated data will further reinforce hawkish expectations.
U.S. stocks are likely to rally and then retreat, facing even greater selling pressure in the crypto sector; Only when inflation cools significantly will both rebound simultaneously.
At this stage, the crypto sector currently lacks conditions for independent strength and can only passively rely on the liquidity fluctuations of US stocks.
Before macroeconomic easing signals are realized, it will be difficult for the crypto market to reverse its weak running pattern.
With PCE data coming out, should the crypto community mainly wait and see, or will small-position players rebound? #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, yet its stock price rebounded by 9% #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for US stocks The Federal Reserve didn't hike interest rates, yet the market traded as if they had. This is perhaps the biggest story of the day, highlighting the complex and nuanced relationship between macroeconomic policy and asset prices. The FOMC held rates steady, which, in a vacuum, should have been a positive signal for risk assets. However, the tone of the commentary was notably hawkish. The central bank signaled that it intends to keep rates higher for longer to combat stubbornly persistent inflatio#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
Internal hawkish divisions within the Federal Reserve are intensifying; tonight's PCE will determine the short-term direction of the US stock market $BTC
This round of the FOMC meeting ended with a 9:3 vote to keep rates unchanged, but three members collectively advocated a 25BP rate hike, marking the highest internal policy disagreement in nearly a decade.
Three hawkish officials insist on tightening monetary policy, with the core concern being the strong stickiness of inflation and the rebound in oil prices further raising the risk of upward price pressure.
The Fed is currently in a dilemma: raising rates too quickly will suppress the economy, while cutting rates rashly could cause inflation to rebound again.
The market's previously warming expectations for rate cuts have quickly cooled, and the probability of another rate hike in September remains oscillating above 60%.
The core PCE price index to be released tonight is the Fed's primary reference for anchoring inflation and will directly determine the subsequent monetary policy direction.
The data presents three distinctly different market scenarios.
If the PCE year-over-year and month-over-month figures exceed expectations, hawkish views will completely dominate, pushing US Treasury yields higher.
Growth tech stocks and high-valuation assets like memory chips will come under pressure and decline, likely erasing yesterday's rebound.
If inflation data significantly declines, tightening concerns will ease, liquidity easing expectations will return, and the computing hardware sector will continue its recovery trend.
The most challenging scenario is a relatively strong economy combined with a slight decline in inflation, which will lead to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, resulting in wide-ranging volatility throughout the day.
Given the current market status, US tech stocks have long entered a wait-and-see mode.
The Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors have fully retraced gains, cyclical stocks like SanDisk are struggling to rally, and capital is waiting for the data release to choose a direction.
Profit-taking at high levels continues to rise, and no incremental funds are willing to bet on a one-sided market in advance.
In the short term, the initiative in the market is entirely in the hands of the inflation data; waiting for the outcome amid volatility is the optimal strategy now.
After the inflation data is released, should the computing power sector prioritize reducing positions or continue holding the base positions?
#PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5% #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% $BTC $ETH Over the past two hours, BTC has continued to hover around 64,300, with the open price around 64,330 and ETH around 1,906. Yekoi/Fengxun believes BTC's rebound is weaker than the Nasdaq, with a localized breakdown after a 4-hour volume doji, supply remains, so the trend continues to fluctuate downward; BTC short positions continue to hold, small ETH positions have stopped losses, and BNB long positions are pushed to cost protection.
Coinkaso's view below 66,000 is also defined as a bearish rebound, planning a short break at 65,300–65,800, stop loss at 66,300, and targets at 64,800–63,200; but also pre-recorded above 62,600–62,100, with 61,600 failing, indicating the core is not a one-sided short chase, but waiting for the upper and lower boundaries. Another trader has already taken a short-term long position and exited with profit, keeping only a short position, with a weak short-term consensus.
The most prominent risk is when the Sanma Brother contract offers a 100x short position at ETH around 1902; Even with only a small amount of margin, this structure may still be liquidated by ordinary volatility and is not considered an opportunity in this round. TraderGauls' INJ long position open price is about 4.92, up about 4% in 24 hours. It has taken profits in batches and pushed the remaining positions into breakeven protection, making it a point for cashing out rather than chasing gains.
No new opportunities were included in this round: although Coinkaso's BANK rose from around 0.067 to about 0.071, it still fell about 57% in 24 hours; CFX switches quickly between bulls and bears and lacks reliable catalysts, making it unsuitable for packaging as a definite opportunity. Next, watch BTC 64200 to see if it can break below it; if it falls, then look at 63200 and the 62k demand zone. #BTC #ETH #INJ Opinions and information are only compiled and do not constitute investment advice