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#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
Amazon's earnings report is a textbook example of "all bad news priced in," and the market logic has completely changed.
Although the Q3 guidance of $197 billion to $202 billion was below expectations, the stock price surged 9%, indicating that everyone simply doesn't care about short-term revenue fluctuations.
The core logic lies in AWS cloud business's record 37% growth and operating profit soaring 64% to $16.6 billion.
This proves that as long as AI-driven cloud demand continues to accelerate, Wall Street is willing to pay for the current massive cash burn.
I see this as a typical "burn and earn" model, which is more attractive than XMSFT's pure cash realization and Meta's pure hype.
Data doesn't lie; the profit margin directly hit 39.4%, and the full-year capital expenditure increase to $220 billion didn't scare away investors.
This contrast shows the market is extremely hungry now; as long as AI can be converted into solid cloud service revenue, it will be wildly chased.
My strategy is, since the market recognizes this "high investment = high growth" logic, to go with the flow.
If you hold shares, I would continue to hold, focusing on whether AWS's growth shows signs of slowing.
If you don't hold shares, consider entering after a stable pullback, since the $220 billion expenditure is the moat for the future.
Don't be scared off by the seemingly disappointing guidance; in the AI era, companies that dare to spend big and can make money are the true kings. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% $SNDK 12-hour highlights
SNDK latest market analysis | 7.31
1. Market Conditions
The current price is $1,279.96, and yesterday it surged nearly 26% in a single day. After hitting a low of $998 the previous day, it experienced a strong oversold recovery.
1. In the past month, the price has pulled back more than 47% from the $2,354 high, which is a bubble withdrawal following the previous surge; This round of rally was driven by a collective recovery in the storage sector, with Micron and SK Hynix both rising more than 16% simultaneously. This is a resonant sector trend rather than an isolated positive driver.
2. On-chain leveraged liquidations have basically been cleared out, panic selling pressure has been phased out, but trading volume remains high, and the divergence between bulls and bears remains significant.
3. The tokenized version trades 24/7 without interruption, with volatility even more intense than the US stock itself. Short-term speculative funds come and go quickly, with frequent shakeouts.
2. The core reasons behind the surge
1. Deeply oversold + technical bottom rebound
Several consecutive days of sharp declines pushed the indicator into an extremely oversold range. After holding the psychological level of $1,000, bottom-fishing funds concentrated in the market, triggering a retaliatory rebound. Short-term panic trading has ended, and the market is entering a window of recovery.
2. The AI storage cycle logic is being picked up by capital again
The market is repricing the rigid demand for AI data centers, with long-term rigid demand for enterprise-grade SSDs and NAND flash memory; Many investment banks remain bullish, with Goldman Sachs even setting a $2,200 target price, indicating that the long-term fundamental logic has not completely failed.
3. Negative news is fully absorbed in the short term
The market previously worried about major manufacturers' capacity expansions and panic over flash memory price drops has been fully priced in after a round of sharp declines. Short-term negative news is now positive.
3. Hard negative factors suppressing the market going forward
1. The August 5th financial report was the biggest ticking time
With only a few days left until the quarterly earnings report, if revenue and performance fall short of expectations, this rebound could easily stall and start a pullback again. Right now, funds are playing on expectations in advance.
2. Heavy selling pressure from massive trapped stocks at high levels
The highest increase this year exceeded 700%, with large amounts of standing chips accumulating in the 1450–1600 and 2350 ranges above. As soon as the price slightly recovers, people will keep breaking even, selling off the market.
3. The Fed's high interest rate environment remains unchanged
Powell's hawkish stance remains, and high-valuation growth stocks have always been suppressed by liquidity, making it difficult for them to sustain a one-sided rally.
4. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support (from near to far)
1. Short-term lifeline: $1000, the lowest point of this round's testing. If it falls below it again, the rebound will be void;
2. Medium-term strong support: $880–$950, the trend divide.
Pressure (from near to far)
1. Short-term primary resistance: $1350;
2. Medium-term trapped zone: $1450–1600;
3. Trend reversal pressure: Historical high above $1900.
5. Simple market forecasting
1. Range-bound oscillation grinding disc (high probability)
Holding the 1000 support level, the price is fluctuating sideways between 1000 and 1450. Everyone is waiting for the August earnings to set the direction, and it's unlikely the rebound will turn into a reversal in one go.
2. Second Bottoming (Bearish Scenario)
Earnings report below expectations + market weakness, falling below the 1000 mark again, continuing to test the 880 support.
3. Restarting the rally (low probability)
Only when earnings data far exceed expectations will funds challenge the heavy trapped zone above. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
PCE turns negative month-on-month, up 3.7% year-on-year: Is this the starting point for cooling inflation, or is it a financial illusion caused by oil prices?
When PCE data came out this evening, many trading groups instantly erupted, filled with cheers of "good news," "rate cuts are solid," and "$BTC is about to fly." Overall, PCE fell 0.1% month-on-month, turning negative, and year-on-year fell to 3.7%. It seems inflation is indeed being tightly suppressed.
But at that moment, staring at the screen, I felt cold sweat break out. These friends shouting good news probably didn't even look up the core data.
This is definitely not the starting point of a cooling inflation trend, but rather a monthly financial illusion forcibly painted by a plunge in crude oil prices.
A brief breakdown of the data reveals the trump cards. In June, WTI crude oil prices experienced a sharp drop, falling from near $90 per barrel at the beginning of the month to around $70 per barrel by the end of the month, losing more than $20. It was precisely this bottom-up in the energy sector that pushed the overall PCE month-on-month into negative territory.
What about the core PCE, which excludes food and energy? In June, core PCE was still up 0.1% month-on-month, holding steadily at a high of 3.3% year-on-year. In other words, behind the oil price crash, underlying inflation—which truly represents wages and real services—shows no sign of compromise.
If inflation really recedes as the data suggests, how could the Fed possibly take such an unwavering stance at yesterday's FOMC decision? Don't forget, yesterday three committee members unexpectedly voted to raise rates, and Wash even publicly emphasized, "This is not a pause." The most data-savvy central bank policymakers are using concrete actions to dampen the market's blind enthusiasm for rate cuts.
From my trading logic, oil prices can't keep plunging endlessly. Currently, the US-Saudi airstrikes and the Strait of Hormuz negotiations are still fiercely engaged, and WTI has strong fundamental support near $70. As long as oil prices stop falling and rebound at $70, the effect of energy on inflation will instantly disappear. By next month, overall PCE will most likely show its true form and turn upward again.
So in terms of positioning, I choose to keep 35% of my cash defense and absolutely won't blindly chase gains at this level. This kind of 'inflation cooling' driven by a single cyclical commodity is highly deceptive. Once you treat it as the starting point of a rate-cutting cycle, you are likely to be swept away by the market when inflation rises again.
Next, I will focus on two specific indicators:
First, whether the 10-year Treasury yield can fall below 4.5%. If capital truly believes inflation is cooling, the bond market will vote on falling yields;
Second, WTI crude oil is fighting around $70. As long as oil prices hold at this level, a rebound in overall inflation is only a matter of time. Data source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
---#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
PCE turning negative + GDP falling short of expectations—how should the market be priced?
⚠️ Personal views exchanged and do not constitute investment advice
In June, PCE turned negative month-on-month, falling to 3.7% year-on-year; The preliminary GDP for the second quarter was 1.5%, missing expectations, but private consumption remained strong.
My judgment: This inflation decline is more of a short-term dividend from falling oil prices, and not a true inflation turning point.
Risks in the Middle East have yet to be resolved; if conflict breaks out again, it will push crude oil prices higher, making it easy for inflation to rebound again. Whether a downward trend can be confirmed depends on the upcoming CPI and wage data.
The entire set of data is fragmented: GDP is weakening, but domestic demand remains resilient.
Inflation has temporarily eased, but strong consumption still gives hawks room to raise rates, and expectations for a rate hike in September will continue to fluctuate.
My trading strategy remains unchanged: take advantage of positive news to push prices higher, and continue to focus on rebounds and shorts.
Only when continuous inflation data continues to decline and domestic demand weakens simultaneously will I readjust my holdings for the second half of the year.
Do you think this PCE decline is the real turning point for inflation, or just a short-term illusion caused by oil price fluctuations? Will this set of data change your trading plans? $BTC
"Don't just criticize HYPE as a platform token; it has turned 'exchange dividends' into an on-chain central bank" $HYPE
Many people still look at it with outdated standards, $HYPE: "It's just a token from an on-chain contract platform, what's the difference from those meme tokens?" ”
The difference is huge.
Traditional exchange tokens: buyback depends on the boss's mood, destruction depends on announcements and performances, income comes from local dogs collecting coin fees.
HYPE: 97%–99% perpetual fees are paid into the Assistance Fund → to buy HYPE at market price →and burn it. It is verifiable on-chain, with cumulative buybacks exceeding $1.1 billion as of July, and a single-year record of $283 million this year; With TVL of 5.8 billion and annual fees of $1.07 billion, HIP-4 has brought in both prediction markets and RWAs, and the spot ETFs 21Shares THYP and Bitwise BHYP have seen daily net inflows into US stocks.
This structure is called "automatic buyback + cancellation" hard currency in US stocks, and in crypto circles it's called a "reflexive monster":
Trading volume ↑ → fees ↑ → buybacks ↑ → price ↑ → trading volume rises again. The positive cycle continued, yet even VC unlocks (9.92 million tokens in May) couldn't break through.
But the seasoned veterans have to pour cold water on this:
Repurchases are not money printing machines, but shadows of trading volume. In a bear market, when contract volume halves, buying stalls;
Spot ETF inflows cooled after June, and institutions are not without unlimited bullets;
$535 for FDV is not cheap; a further break to the previous high of 63 requires a new narrative to take over (Pre-IPO perpetual?) RWA settlement? ）。
So I see HYPE as a hybrid of "on-chain brokerage stocks + buyback ETFs":
If the bottom position does not exceed 10%, when the probe observing liquidity trends—it is relative to the Bitcoin market—it indicates agitated leverage on the chain; If it dies suddenly, it means contract workers are all competing for fees and have no surplus pay.
Don't idolize it, but don't look down on it. If it can stay above 50 this round and connect the Q4 second repo mechanism (USDC reserve interest to buy coins), that would be a true transformation.
Leave room for your position and discretion in judgment. Don't treat HYPE as a savior, and don't treat it as a joke. 🚬
$HYPE 📊 $SNDK contract liquidation express (July 31)
According to liquidation data, be careful not to short, or you'll be pinned down by the dealers...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was about $98,400
Long orders have zero liquidation
Short liquidations amounted to about $98,400
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $6.6821 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $1.1825 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $5.4997 million
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $14.9854 million
The long position liquidation was about $2.1653 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $12.8201 million
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $23.5275 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $3.5054 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $20.0221 million
From $SNDK liquidation data, short liquidations crush the bulls, with shorts facing continuous large-scale liquidations. The market shows a unilateral extreme short squeeze, with 24-hour short liquidations 5.7 times longer than bulls, and the scale of liquidations expanding step by step. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being liquidated.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 31st
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market rewards are no longer just "money-burning narratives," but "efficiency in spending money"—from internal divisions within the Federal Reserve to the fierce battles between Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing and new pricing power is taking shape.
🏛️ The Fed's three votes advocate for rate hikes: internal divisions not seen in a decade
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with 9 votes in favor and 3 against. Cleveland Fed's Hamack, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan all advocate for a 25 basis point rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three votes have been voted in unison. The Dow immediately plunged more than 1,100 points. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to determining whether to act in September.
📈 Microsoft bucks the trend by cutting capital expenditures: rose 8.5% after hours
Microsoft delivered results that exceeded expectations: revenue of $90 billion, up 18% year-on-year; Azure revenue grew 43% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth rate in four years; For the first time, Azure's full-year revenue surpassed $100 billion.
What truly ignited the market was the capital expenditure guidance—a downward revision from the previously expected roughly $190 billion to $175 billion. The stock price surged 8.5% after hours. Against the backdrop of Google's stock price plunging due to Google's increased spending guidance, Microsoft's "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta's revenue hit record but plummeted: the price of AI's money-burning model
Meta released its earnings report the same day: revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly exceeding expectations. However, net profit fell 14% year-on-year to $15.85 billion; the lower limit for capital expenditure was raised from $125 billion to $130 billion; free cash flow was reduced to $784 million, hitting a nearly four-year low. After hours, the stock price once plunged more than 10%.
That same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," while Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market rewards are no longer "money-burning narratives" but "spending efficiency." Rare internal divisions within the Fed signal that the policy path is no longer certain; Microsoft has sparked a surge in stock price by cutting capital expenditures, signaling that "cost reduction" in AI investment is more sought after than "increased investment"; Meta's revenue hit a record high but plummeted because the market is punishing every narrative that only invests without returns. Old logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is taking shape. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
#微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for the US stock market 卧槽，闪迪这一波绝对不是普通反弹，是想直接把空头连人带仓一起抬走啊
$SNDK 单日暴涨约26%，核心不是单一利好，而是AI需求、存储涨价和空头回补同时爆发
首先，微软云业务继续高速增长，资本开支大幅增加，说明科技巨头对AI数据中心的投入没有减速。服务器除了需要GPU，也需要大量高速SSD和NAND闪存，闪迪作为存储龙头，直接吃到资金预期
其次，三星财报释放出明确信号：服务器存储需求强劲、产能依然偏紧，存储价格仍有上涨空间。这证明AI带来的存储缺口正在从题材变成真实订单，市场重新给整个板块估值
最后是技术面的逼空。闪迪此前从高位连续暴跌，悲观情绪已经释放得非常彻底。板块一旦转强，抄底资金进场叠加空单止损，才把反弹放大成昨晚这种暴力拉升
接下来先看1380—1400压力区。放量站稳，后面有机会继续挑战1450—1500；若冲高后跌回1320下方，短线资金大概率开始兑现，价格可能回踩1280—1300重新换手
我的判断是，中期逻辑已经转强，但昨晚涨得太急，追高风险明显，等回踩确认比情绪上头更稳
$MU $SKHYNIX
#美股加密标的承压，币价波动影响财报 #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌 #微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录
Sharing my personal unique perspective on why this round of surge holds strong benchmark significance:
Many retail investors at first glance: AI bull market returns again, boldly enter and layout the computing power track. But digging into the financial report details, I believe this is only a structural repair, not the start of a new comprehensive bull market.
1. Two core drivers of this surge
Azure cloud AI commercialization has truly generated revenue; AI is no longer an empty concept. At the same time, capital investment is optimized, controlling ineffective cash burn, and cash flow data has greatly improved. Currently, capital stock-picking logic is straightforward: leaders who can convert AI into revenue enjoy valuation premiums, while companies that only burn money without seeing returns continue to be abandoned by funds. Compared to the previous weakening of Meta, the track polarization is visible to the naked eye.
2. Two hidden potential risks
First, Microsoft's outstanding performance is an individual advantage and cannot represent the entire AI industry's prosperity; many small and medium downstream enterprises still face profitability challenges.
Second, the macro environment has not changed; PCE data still leaves inflation risks, the tail risk of Federal Reserve rate hikes has not been fully cleared, and the liquidity tightening shackles remain.
My practical summary:
Short-term positive news raises overall market risk sentiment and will bring positive support to the crypto market in the short term. But beware of blindly chasing the rally due to the US stock market heat; individual stock celebrations are unlikely to translate into a broad market rise. The upcoming layout strategy is simplified: discard junk themes and focus closely on sectors with actual industry implementation. 摩根大通一刀把coinbase目标价砍了三成，从283砍到196，瑞穗证券更是直接把circle评级打到跑输大盘，目标价从85砍到50，你可能想不到这家一向最听话，最合规，被当成稳定币模范生的公司现在成了华尔街最看衰的对象，那么cirele的生意是怎么被人从两头堵死的。
这个事情得从hypeeliquid说起，这是现在最大的去中心化合约交易所之一，平台上有几十亿美元的usdc，这些钱躺在那儿不是白躺的，circle和coinbase会拿去买美债吃利息，这笔利息以前基本是他两对半分，跟hypeeliquid一毛钱关系没有，那hypeeliquid心里肯定不平衡啊，凭什么我这个平台聚的钱，利息全让你们赚了，它先自己憋了个稳定币想截流，没搞成，最后干脆跟circle，coinbase从新谈了个协议，coinbase拿这些usdc去投资赚的利息90%得返还给hypeeliquid，现在在hypeeliquid里面的60亿usdc这笔钱一年能产生大概1.6亿美元的储备收益，说白了这1.6亿以前是他两口袋里的钱，新协议一签游戏规则全变了，这笔利息的90%现在得返还给hypeeliquid，circle和coinbase两家只能留一成，那算下来他两一年合计要少赚6千到8千万美元的利润，反过来hypeeliquid靠这一笔就能多赚一亿三千万到一亿六，规模再涨长期能摸到三五亿，这不是小数目，相当于被人从兜里掏走一大笔现金流，也难怪hype明显上涨，所谓的龙二aster跟空气币一样。
你可能觉得这是circle，coinbase，hypeeliquid几个大机构之间的事，跟我们没有什么关系，其实还真不是这样，这些平台赚利息靠的是什么，靠的就是咱们手里的usdc,那些放在交易所里的稳定币余额，说白了这些机构抢的这块蛋糕，本来就是拿咱们得钱生出来的，现在他们分成分的越来越乱，利润被越挤越薄，最后大概率不会自己硬抗，要么是稳定币相关的理财收益变少，要么是手续费提现门槛这些地方悄悄涨一涨，羊毛出在羊身上，买单的最后还是普通散户，所以这个事情看着是机构在打架，其实跟我们手里的钱都有关系，如果只是hypeeliquid这一单生意，circle咬咬牙也就忍了，真正让华尔街慌的是这个事情开了一个坏头，因为手里有大量稳定币的也不只是hypeeliquid这一家，像polymarket这些平台都是有的，那hypeeliquid能压榨出90%的分成，凭什么我不能提同样的要求，circle和coinbase以后是不是逢人就得让利谁都惹不起。这几个月usdc的流通量已经从将近800亿掉到了730亿，短短几个月缩水70亿，钱是实实在在流出去了，坏消息还没完，6月底又冒出来一个狠角色ousd稳定币联盟，visa，万事达，stripe，贝莱德加上coinbase自己，140多家巨头联合搞的，这个名单份量太重了，半个华尔街和半个硅谷联手下场，联盟的玩法跟circle完全反着来。Circle自己要留大概38%的利息当利润，这是主要的赚钱方式，ousd呢几乎把100%的利息都让给推广它的这些巨头，自己只赚点辛苦费，说白了就是拿自己不赚钱让你们赚这张牌，硬生生去抢circle碗里的肉，最扎心的是circle的朋友coinbase也是ousd的创始成员之一，它跟circle那份分销协议今年8月就要从新谈了，过去这份协议一年能给coinbase带来9亿多元，占了circle总收入的一半还多，是它最大的一块肉，现在coinbase手里同时握着hypeeliquid那90%分成的先例，又有ousd这张现成的备胎牌，你说他8月谈判的时候会不会往死里压circle的价，circle估计头都大了。
瑞穗证券那份报告把这笔帐算的挺扎心，预计circle到2027年花在渠道分成上的钱占收入的比例会从64%上升到73%，利润直接比市场原本预期低了2成多，哪怕circle到时候把规模做得再大，估值倍数也比同类公司低了一截，说明市场对它这套赚钱方式的信心已经动摇了，还好circle手里也不是没牌，7月份它拿到了美国监管机构的最终批文，能开一家全国性的数字货币银行，这是实打实的联邦牌照，往后管自己的储备资产更硬气了，别人想动他这块地盘也没那么容易。他还在自己搭分销渠道，不再事事求着coinbase带流量，自营比例已从6%涨到17%左右，然后更大的动作是它自己条叫arc的公链，思路很清楚，不能光靠吃利差这一条路走到底，得靠链上转账，手续费这些新法子多条腿赚钱。当然那边泼冷水说的也直接，这些动作短期救不了业绩，usdc市值这几个月照样缩水，牌照和新公链都是慢药。说实话稳定币这个东西，以前在大家心里就是个安全岛天塌了它也不会跌，可你看今天，连circle这种正规军都得跟你抢饭吃，被华尔街集体唱衰，这个行业远没有表面那么风平浪静，各种反转，越是看起来稳如泰山的大生意背后往往博弈的越凶，你手里拿着的稳定币，未来的收益甚至安全性都可能因为这些巨头之间的较量悄悄发生变化，要多注意这些事情多留个心眼，总归没坏处。#aistorydiverges
When I deeply embedded the Luoyang shovel into the Shang and Zhou ruins from three thousand years ago, the humus I brought out carried the exact same bloody smell as today's Silicon Valley financial reports—the alternation of bulls and bears has its historical rhythm, and the rise and fall of empires have always echoed the same rhythm.
Throughout the long history of historical research, vast civilizations often present only two scenes on the eve of the Dynastic Revolution: one is cultivating thousands of acres of fertile fields with sturdy vessels, and the other is the entire nation's wealth piled up into grand yet cold tombs. Last night's performance showdown between the two giants was nothing more than a rehearsal for the digital ruins, replaying this age-old divergence of fate.
Microsoft delivered a quarterly harvest of $90 billion, up 18% year-on-year. Its cloud infrastructure is like a heavy bronze vessel—steady and highly practical, having already harvested the first quarter's heavy wheat in the fertile ground of commerce. It does not need to promise the future to the tribe through ethereal myths, because the inscriptions on bronze ritual vessels have long been filled with the present gold and silver.
In contrast, Meta Zuckerberg resembles a sixteenth-century expedition captain obsessed with searching for the Golden City. While $60.8 billion in revenue is huge, free cash flow has plummeted to a four-year low, and with frenzied capital expenditures ranging from $130 billion to $145 billion, it's tantamount to throwing years of accumulated grain into an incinerator as a sacrifice. Is he building an altar to the divine realm, or constructing a grand burial pit for the algorithmic gods who have yet to descend? Deep within the undercurrents of capital, those sharp-eyed 'Tomb Raiding Officers' on Wall Street had long sensed danger in the foggy guidance, pressing their mechanisms and retreating back to the secret passage.
The same narrative of the intelligent revolution leads to completely different archaeological tombs. One fulfills the oracle on site, while the other uses endless cash flow to forge future antiques. The upcoming earnings reports from Amazon and Apple, released today, will provide more accurate carbon-14 dating data for this grand collapse and reconstruction of civilization.
As cracks in traditional tech empires appear, the secret passage connecting the old order and the on-chain world has been opened. The $XDELL of US stock tokens reflects profound market interactions in the ongoing game — in this never-sleeping archaeological excavation site, tomb raiders and expeditionary forces await the same answer: who is truly mining civilization's iron ore, and who is merely selling mirages in the yellow sand?Yesterday, because the $GRVT Creator Award was announced next door, I chatted with two friends who are also writing content and happened to talk about the latest Babylon project $BABY
I've noticed that some friends may have really been brainwashed by certain KOLs or AI watermarks:
1. I said Babylon's interest rate is too low, and with the partner's lending agreement, the interest rate is less than 1%, so very few people are playing it. He said, "You even picked on the money I gave for free."
But the problem is, it's not free: first, participating in events requires gas fees, and Bitcoin gas round-trip costs tens of U, requiring a lot of money to earn back interest; Second, if I mortgage money to it, there's a risk. If their agreement has a loophole, I'll lose my principal......
2. He believes that DeFi with $BTC will definitely develop: BTC currently has a market cap of 1.3 trillion and could rise to 10 trillion in the future. Even with bank interest, this money would still generate over 100 billion yuan, so there would definitely be projects that could be produced. The project that can make it out of reach is most likely the current leading company, Babylon.
But I think it's a bit of a given. Gold has been coming for 200 years without interest, so we can't assume BTC should have interest. We still need to look deeper to see what kind of infrastructure is mature before BTC DeFi can be developed.
3. Also, Babylon's clients are B2B project teams, and they have to be public chain projects built on a PoS mechanism. This client base is a bit narrow, which limits BABY's development prospects. There aren't many project teams in a bear market; even if there are, there aren't many wealthy ones. Even those with money aren't necessarily those making PoS public chains. It feels like it's hard to make money.The US military just bombed Iran, and then Iran turned around to attack US military bases. Oil prices soared 35% within the month—Old Mo tells you why the big cake is still holding
Just as I sat down to watch the market, the Middle East exploded again.
On the evening of the 29th, the U.S. military launched a large-scale airstrike on Iran's Revolutionary Guard command center, missile and drone facilities. On the night of the 30th, Iran retaliated directly, using drones to attack the US military at Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, destroying generators and navigation systems. A few hours earlier, Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed to have attacked a US military base in Jordan, blowing up three F-35s.
The two sides completely tore off the relationship.
In an interview with Fox, Trump bluntly said—he would "strike Iran hard." Iran is even more aggressive, declaring that it has "full control" over the Strait of Hormuz and continues to blockade it. Iran directly rejected Oman's proposed plan to manage the strait.
The fighting is spreading outward—a gas carrier at an Egyptian port was bombed, and Saudi Arabia, together with the U.S., launched airstrikes against pro-Iranian militants inside Iraq. Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan—all are included.
Oil prices soared.
On July 2nd, Brent was still fluctuating around $70, and on the 23rd, it plunged straight to $102 during trading. Since July, the cumulative increase has been 35.65%. On the 29th, it rose more than 8% in a single day. I checked the data, and the cumulative increase over the past two weeks has exceeded 20%. Goldman Sachs said in extreme cases it could reach $120; Wood Mackenzie put it even more bluntly: if the strait doesn't connect, go for 100+, and in extreme cases, it can reach $120-150. Some institutions believe that a fluctuation in the $80-100 range is highly likely.
With oil prices rising like this, I don't need to elaborate on the impact on inflation expectations.
Old Mo returns to the chart.
According to CoinMarketCap data, BTC's latest price is 64,809, up 1.87% in 24 hours. ETH was quoted at 1919, up 1.22%. Some data sources also report BTC 64,806 and ETH 1,924. A price difference of several dozen dollars across different platforms is normal; I usually choose the comprehensive range.
BTC is currently fluctuating between 64,500 and 65,000, having risen for three consecutive days. Yesterday, the low was 63,269, but it was forcibly pulled back again. Resistance above is 65,500-66,000; a breakout is at 67,000; Support below is 64,000-63,500; if broken, target 62,500.
ETH supports at 1880-1900, with resistance above at 1950-1960.
Coinbase fell 5.5%, Circle dropped 6.9%—US crypto concept stocks are falling, but Bitcoin and Ethereum are rising. What does this mean? Geopolitical risks are driving up inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are driving the logic of "depreciation trading"—capital is pouring into hard assets.
Old Mo said a few honest words.
Oil prices rose 35% in the month, which is a major event at any time in history. But the current situation is — geopolitical risks are driving up oil prices→ inflation expectations are rising→ and funds are seeking inflation-resistant assets. This round, Bitcoin didn't crash along with risk assets; instead, it followed the same logic as gold.
But one thing must be considered: if oil prices remain above $100, can the Federal Reserve still hold its position? The July interest rate decision is coming soon, and that's the biggest variable.
Operationally: Bitcoin waits for a pullback to 64,000-64,300 to stabilize before buying; Ethereum waits for 1880-1900 for signals. Wear stop-loss and don't carry the order. Chasing at the 65,000 level isn't cost-effective; it's safer to confirm on a pullback before acting.
How far do you think the US-Iran conflict will go? Let's talk in the comments
If you think Lao Mo makes sense, give a like and follow. When the key position arrives, I'll call you immediately. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美伊报复循环加速, oil prices have risen 20% this month. 📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Update (July 31)
Based on liquidation data, shorts be careful, the dog whales are grinding you down...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $901,300
Long liquidations about $809,500
Short liquidations about $91,900
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $9,095,000
Long liquidations about $5,300,300
Short liquidations about $3,794,700
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $15,845,000
Long liquidations about $6,078,200
Short liquidations about $9,766,900
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $25,796,300
Long liquidations about $8,976,600
Short liquidations about $16,819,700
From $ETH liquidation data, long liquidations dominate in the 1-4 hour window, triggering a fierce short squeeze; from 12 hours onward, short liquidations overwhelm longs, reversing the trend and escalating the short squeeze, with 24-hour short liquidations 1.87 times that of longs. Everyone manage your positions well, don’t get liquidated.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative" but rather the "efficiency of spending"—from the Fed's internal split to the contrasting fortunes of Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing and new pricing power is emerging.
🏛️ Fed's three votes for rate hike: a split unseen in a decade
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Fed voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Cleveland Fed's Harker, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan voted for a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned. The Dow plunged over 1100 points immediately. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to judging whether action will be taken in September.
📈 Microsoft cuts capital expenditure against the trend: after-hours up 8.5%
Microsoft delivered better-than-expected results: revenue $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure revenue up 43% year-over-year, the fastest growth in four years; annual Azure revenue surpasses $100 billion for the first time.
What really ignited the market was the capex guidance—revised down from about $190 billion to $175 billion. After-hours stock surged 8.5%. Against the backdrop of Google's stock plummeting due to increased spending guidance, Microsoft's "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta's record revenue but plummeting stock: the cost of AI money burning
Meta reported on the same day: revenue $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. But net profit fell 14% year-over-year to $15.85 billion; capex floor raised from $12.5 billion to $13 billion; free cash flow only $784 million, a nearly four-year low. After-hours stock once plunged over 10%.
On the same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative" but the "efficiency of spending." The rare Fed internal split signals policy path uncertainty; Microsoft’s capex cut triggered a stock surge, signaling that "cost reduction" in AI investment is more favored than "increasing spending"; Meta’s record revenue but stock plunge shows the market punishes narratives with input but no return. The old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming. #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
#微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录 $BTC 短期宏观压力边际缓解，核心PCE环比转负为2020年以来首次，同比3.2%-3.3%符合预期，通胀拐点信号初现。GDP放缓至1.5%但国内私人最终销售增长3.9%，内需未失速，美联储加息紧迫性下降、降息也缺乏急迫理由，9月约63%加息定价面临重新校准。之前油价破百与地缘冲击压制的风险偏好，现在拿到一个像样的缓和窗口，盘面已在定价。失效条件：若美债收益率快速回升或下周非农大超预期，这个窗口随时关闭。
#PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5% #美股加密标的承压，币价波动影响财报 #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%Why did SK Hynix suddenly surge? My 908.37 long order is planned to be handled like this
I'm Ci Ge.
I've been holding long positions at 908.37 ever since, and this wave has finally seen a decent rally, with the floating profit getting thicker. Many people ask why the sudden surge today is mainly due to several positive factors coordinating simultaneously.
First, the chairman personally steps in to buy stocks.
SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won personally bought SK Hynix for the first time, purchasing a total of 3,620 shares for about 4.8 billion KRW.
This is also his first direct holding of SK Hynix stock; previously, he had always held shares indirectly through SK Square.
After the stock price adjusted steadily from a high point, the actual controller personally bought in, which significantly boosted market sentiment. After the news broke, the stock price quickly reversed from a decline to a rise.
Second, the entire storage sector rebounded collectively.
The Philadelphia semiconductor index surged, with Micron, Western Digital, SanDisk, Seagate, and other storage industry chains strengthening collectively, and capital flowing back into AI hardware.
When sectors resonate, leaders often benefit first.
Third, Microsoft's earnings report reignited the AI logic.
Microsoft's latest earnings report exceeded market expectations, and Azure's cloud business continues to grow rapidly.
Although the capital expenditure guidance has been adjusted, the market interprets it as "higher investment efficiency, not weaker demand."
AI demand has not cooled, and HBM and storage, as core beneficiaries, have naturally regained capital attention.
Fourth, institutions continue to raise expectations.
Multiple institutions have raised their target prices, and Goldman Sachs recently emphasized again that traditional DRAM prices are expected to maintain double-digit growth this year, while HBM will remain in short supply in the future.
The market has resumed trading AI long-term logic, rather than short-term sentiment.
⸻
How should I handle my long order preparation?
I won't sell the entire 908.37 order at once.
My plan is still to take profits in batches:
* Tier 1: Cashing out 20% near 1100-1150, locking in part of the profit first.
* Second tier: Reduce position by another 25% near 1200-1250.
* Third tier: Continue cashing out 25% near 1350-1400.
* Leave 30%. If the market can continue, leave it for above 1500.
At the same time, I will continue to raise my stop-loss points.
Every time the price rises, raise the stop-loss upward, trying to keep profits moving with the market, rather than just taking the elevator and giving it all back.
If a normal pullback occurs later but the key support is not broken, I will consider continuing to hold rather than selling trend orders early just because of one or two bearish candles.
Often, the real profits from major market events aren't opening positions, but holding onto them.
This order is no exception.
The above is only my trading record and personal approach, and does not constitute any investment advice.
$SKHYNIX $BTC $ETH I finally understand what lit the fire under SK hynix today.
I opened the chart expecting just another relief bounce, then that monster green candle showed up. No cap, one headline alone doesn’t create a move like that. This rally looked more like several bullish catalysts lining up at the same time.
The first trigger was hard to ignore. Chey Tae-won, chairman of SK Group, personally bought 3,620 shares of SK hynix on July 30, worth roughly 4.8 billion KRW. That’s a pretty meaningful signal because he’d never held the stock directly before, only through SK Square. After the stock had fallen from around 2.18 million KRW to 1.32 million KRW, seeing the chairman step in gave the market a fresh dose of confidence.
Then the entire memory sector squeezed higher together. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped more than 7%, while names like SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, Micron, and SK hynix all rallied sharply. That’s the kind of sector rotation I pay attention to because it’s usually driven by more than retail excitement.
Btw, Microsoft’s earnings added another boost. Azure kept growing at an impressive pace, annual cloud revenue crossed the $100 billion mark, and stronger profitability helped calm fears that AI infrastructure spending was rolling over. On top of that, bullish research from major institutions and expectations for stronger DRAM pricing and HBM demand next year gave investors even more reasons to stay constructive.
As for my position, my average entry is around 908.37, and I’m sitting on a solid unrealized gain. I’m not trying to guess the exact top. My plan is to scale out gradually into strength instead of closing everything at once, while continuing to trail my stop higher to protect what the market has already given me. If price pulls back without breaking my risk level, I’ll reassess instead of reacting emotionally.
One lesson this trade keeps teaching me: catching a big trend is only half the job. Managing the exit without giving back months of profit is where the real game begins.
$SKHYNIX $ETH $BTC
#PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5% ETH at $1,916, a zone where selling pressure and whale accumulation overlap
If the $1,892 support level is broken, it could fall to $1,880, so why are there both oversold signals and whale buying at the same time?
The key data confirmed in the original text are as follows. ETH is down 0.09% from 24 hours to $1,916.34, with a high of $1,936.33 and a low of $1,892.65. Technical indicators maintain a bearish structure. The price is below the EMA5 (1,919.81), EMA10 (1,921.63), and EMA20 (1,922.11), with SAR resistance at $1,934.75. The MACD widened its negative range at -2.00, and the RSI 6 is at 31.67, approaching oversold conditions. KDJ confirmed weakness as K (24.92) fell below D (35.98). Trading volume was substantial at 2.46 million ETH and 4.72 billion USDT. On the other hand, there are also observations that whales have built positions in WBTC and ETH worth $184 million during the same period.
What this structure means is that the market is simultaneously reflecting two different signals in the price. First, technical supply and demand favor selling. Prices traded below the EMA and SAR indicate no short-term buying forces, and declines accompanied by volume increase the likelihood of actual selling rather than liquidation or stop-losses. Second, whale accumulation signals suggest that mid- to long-term funds are viewing the current price range as a buying zone. These two signals operate on different time axes. Short-term positions follow declines, while long-term positions are bought in installments.
The path this flow takes to BTC and altcoins is clear. If ETH holds above $1,892, the altcoin can maintain expectations of a bottom, but if this support breaks, the flow of funds into BTC could accelerate. In fact, the distinction between the 8 stocks of interest mentioned in the original text (SOL, KAITO, ZAMA, SOON, ALLO, ZEC, XAU) and 92 delayed stocks means that funds are selectively allocated to specific themes. This is a typical pattern where funds concentrate on defensive assets and a few momentum stocks during periods of reduced market liquidity.
There are two conditions for an upward scenario. First, ETH needs to recover to $1,934.75 (SAR). In this case, the short-term bearish structure could be broken, and it could test between $1,950 and $1,960. Second, for whale accumulation to lead to a real price rebound, the $1,892 support level must be held. As long as this support holds,It's been a long time since I wrote a daily report. The market data is so bad I can't even save up a whole issue. Today, I'm saving up and writing about it, divided into secondary levels, on-chain issues, and stocks
Level 2
$bank: The net has already closed. I started from 0.06 and was screaming, the high was about 0.6, then dropped to 0.13 and felt it didn't finish moving, then went back to 0.29, last night it dropped to 0.05, now it's 0.07, trading volume is much lower, and now it's net outflow. This round should be over.
$koma: The channel posted the day before yesterday. Every time I shout 'Dealer,' they start selling. This time I didn't shout on Twitter, so I really stuck with it a bit longer. Also, last night I noticed the borrowing interest rate at Xiao Suo is especially high, which is a bit abnormal. It must be that the Major Seller got involved. Let's see if they can hold on longer this time. The current rate is still positive, and there have been some short positions so far, but not many.
$grvt: Just as I guessed, there were few retail investors, and all the opening was just selling goods. Today it pulled up a bit, but it feels like the window has passed. If you want to play now, the cost is even higher.
On-chain
$Marcoin: High-tech stock meme, maybe this sector is opening. Of course, we only guess when it hits Alpha. Others might already know—yesterday's high was 40m, and at this rate, it definitely won't fall. There's a prediction that CZ will buy, but if CZ doesn't buy for days, it probably won't hold out either
$mame: Meme, which no positive news can reach, is slowly rising; the community is still too strong
Stocks
Yesterday I saw that Unitree is going to go up in August, and I figured Changxin might fall, but today Changxin surged, so I still don't know how to play stocks...
Micron SanDisk has seen single-day gains of 2-30%, with price changes catching up with knockoffs, while only $spcx is still holding up.
#美光暴跌后: Is it at the bottom or halfway up the mountain? 📊 $DOGE Contract Liquidation Express (July 31)
According to liquidation data, short sellers be careful, the DOGE whales are grinding you down...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $148,500
Long position liquidations about $148,500
Short position liquidations are 0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $420,500
Long position liquidations about $413,100
Short position liquidations about $7,446.30
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $451,700
Long position liquidations about $422,000
Short position liquidations about $29,800
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $596,900
Long position liquidations about $484,300
Short position liquidations about $112,600
From the $DOGE liquidation data, long position liquidations overwhelmingly surpass short position liquidations, with shorts showing almost zero resistance throughout, indicating an extremely one-sided long liquidation market. The 24-hour long liquidations are 4.3 times that of shorts. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid liquidation.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative" but rather the "efficiency of spending" — from the Fed's internal split to the contrasting fortunes of Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing and new pricing power is emerging.
🏛️ Fed's three votes for rate hike: a division unseen in a decade
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Fed voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Cleveland Fed's Harker, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan voted for a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned. The Dow immediately plunged over 1100 points. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to judging whether action will be taken in September.
📈 Microsoft cuts capital expenditure against the trend: after-hours up 8.5%
Microsoft delivered better-than-expected results: revenue of $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure revenue up 43% year-over-year, the fastest growth in four years; annual Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time.
What really ignited the market was the capital expenditure guidance — lowered from the previous estimate of about $190 billion to $175 billion. After-hours stock price surged 8.5%. Against the backdrop of Google's stock plummeting due to increased spending guidance, Microsoft's "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta's record revenue but plummeting stock: the cost of AI money burn
Meta reported on the same day: revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. But net profit fell 14% year-over-year to $15.85 billion; capital expenditure floor raised from $125 billion to $130 billion; free cash flow only $784 million, a nearly four-year low. After-hours stock price once plunged over 10%.
On the same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," while Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative" but the "efficiency of spending." The rare internal split at the Fed signals policy path uncertainty; Microsoft’s capital expenditure cut leading to a stock surge signals that "cost reduction" in AI investment is more favored than "increasing investment"; Meta’s record revenue but stock plunge shows the market punishing narratives with input but no return. The old logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is forming. #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌 兄弟，昨晚美股和加密集体暴拉，是不是觉得“牛回速归”了？别急，先看看这根阳线背后藏了多少“笑里藏刀”的戏码。
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1. 沃什又在“嘴炮抗通胀”，市场直接掀桌
昨晚美联储按兵不动，沃什发布会一通操作猛如虎——暗示“长端利率已经替我们加了息”。市场直接听懂了潜台词：你怂了是吧？
于是30年期美债收益率直接飙到5.24%，创2007年以来新高。华尔街大行直接开喷：摩根大通标题《空谈无益》，美国银行说“被鸽派立场搞得一头雾水”，摩根士丹利直接点“信誉受损”。
沃什的逻辑翻译成人话就是：“我觉得市场已经替我紧了，我就不加了。” 市场回答：“行，那我紧给你看。”——越不动→长端越飙→金融条件越紧→越不敢动，完美闭环，直接走进死胡同。
更骚的是，摩根大通已经把首次加息预期提前到12月，美国银行说“重建信誉需要9月加息”。目前CME FedWatch显示9月加息概率约57%。
2. 行情：科技股狂欢，BTC搭了趟顺风车
昨晚美股AI板块大爆发——微软暴涨15%创18年来最大单日涨幅，费城半导体指数暴涨8%，纳指100涨3.4%创年内第三大涨幅。BTC也跟着沾光，一度突破65000美元，日内涨约2%。
但这波反弹有多少是“真买盘”，有多少是“空头被逼平仓”？自己品。
数据面两个关键位置盯好了：
· 61,524美元：如果BTC跌破这里，主流CEX累计多单清算强度将达13.25亿美元，也就是——瀑布起来，尸体能铺满整个OKX。
· 67,712美元：如果突破这里，空单清算强度达10.71亿美元，空头直接原地升天。
现在BTC在64400附近晃荡，上下各3000刀就是两场“清算盛宴”的开关——两边都是雷，就看你站哪边。
3. 沃什时代的新常态：猜猜猜
富达国际说得很直白：在沃什“无指引”政策下，市场对政策路径的预期会频繁调整，利率和资产价格更容易随数据波动——这将成为沃什时代的新常态。
翻译成人话：以后你别指望美联储给你画饼了，自己猜吧，猜错了别怪我没提醒。
🎯 今日开单建议（仅供娱乐，亏了别找我）
· 多单玩家：回踩63800-64000不破，轻仓试多，止损放63200下方，目标先看65000，突破再看65500-66000。记住——63k以下是多头坟场，跌破61.5k就是13亿清算瀑布，别跟清算盘对着干。
· 空单玩家：反弹到65000-65200区域承压，可以轻仓试空，止损放65600上方，目标看64000-63800。如果哪天真的突破67.7k——认怂止损，别跟10亿空单清算盘硬刚。
· 佛系玩家：这行情上下都是雷，空仓看戏不丢人。等方向明确了再进场，比在震荡里被来回收割强一百倍。
一句话总结：美股狂欢是“别人家的牛市”，BTC只是顺风搭车。沃什的“信誉赤字”没解决，9月加息的刀还悬着。仓位控制好，别FOMO追高，也别恐慌割肉——活着比啥都重要。
💬 互动话题：今晚BTC是先冲65k还是先回踩63k？评论区留下你的方向，明天回来看谁被打脸。👇
#PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌 Newly released data: Core PCE turned negative month-on-month, year-on-year 3.2% in line with expectations, but the month-on-month reading showed a turning point. Combined with GDP growth slowing to 1.5%, lower than before, this is a very risk-friendly portfolio. Inflationary pressures are marginally easing, the economy is still growing, just not as hot as before. This data is stuck at the Fed's most difficult position. Those wanting to raise rates can't find enough reasons, and those wanting to cut rates are hesitant to act. For crypto, this is the clearest signal in recent weeks: macro uncertainty is starting to swing in a favorable direction Previously, oil prices breaking 100 and the US-Iran conflict scared the market considerably. Now, there is finally a decent signal of easing. The market is already pricing in. Watch how US Treasury yields and the US dollar index will follow up. This data gives the market a breathing room. As for how long it can breathe, let's see how the non-farm payrolls will buy $BTC next week. $ETH #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance missed expectations, but the stock price reversed to rise 9% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期, with a sharp drop in after-hours trading BTC, ETH, and SOL all recorded slight to moderate rebounds today, with BTC returning near $65,000. However, what is more noteworthy is that the 24-hour trading volumes of all three have simultaneously declined compared to the previous day: prices are recovering, but participation intensity has not kept pace. This combination usually should not be directly translated as a "trend reversal"; it is more like a technical rebound after a pause in macro pressure. The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range unchanged this week, but the decision saw three dissenting votes advocating for a rate hike. A pause does not equal a shift to easing; the market still needs to price in risk premiums for inflation, energy, and interest rate trajectories. For crypto assets, what truly matters is not a single day closing green, but whether subsequent capital can continue to flow in, whether trading volume can expand, and whether BTC's stability can drive broader risk appetite. Discussions in the X community have also gradually shifted from "whether there will be a rebound" to whether ETF capital flows and volume can be sustained. This is a healthier question: don't just focus on the price endpoint; first see if the capital driving the price remains. Key points: 1) BTC rose about 2.1% in 24 hours, with ETH and SOL also up, but these are real-time snapshots. 2) The 24-hour trading volumes of BTC, ETH, and SOL decreased by approximately 4.4%, 29.6%, and 20.2% respectively compared to the previous day. 3) The Federal Reserve maintained the 3.50%–3.75% interest rate range, with a 9:3 vote, three members favoring a rate hike. Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile; macro, liquidity, and policy expectations can change rapidly; this article#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
Major US macroeconomic data released simultaneously: the June PCE price index turned negative month-on-month, and the annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter fell to 1.5%, significantly below market expectations.
As the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, overall PCE declined month-on-month, easing short-term inflationary pressures, but core PCE remains elevated, still far from the 2% inflation target. This inflation pullback has largely benefited from a phased drop in oil prices, which is driven by external factors and its sustainability is questionable.
Economic signals are also subtle: GDP growth is cooling and growth momentum is weakening, but household consumption and corporate investment remain resilient and have not entered a recession.
This combination of "slight cooling inflation + economic slowdown" has put the Fed in a dilemma:
On one hand, the data weakens the urgency of an immediate rate hike in September; On the other hand, core inflation remains stubborn, making it difficult for the Fed to switch to rate cuts, and expectations that high interest rates will persist longer cannot be completely dispelled. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Asset Differentiation: US Treasury yields are under short-term pressure, while growth assets are entering a window of sentiment recovery; But one should not be overly optimistic. If the Middle East situation stirs up oil prices again, inflation is likely to rebound again, and policy expectations will fluctuate rapidly.
Short-term markets tend to fluctuate repeatedly; avoid one-sided bets and continuously track subsequent employment and price data to confirm trends.The Fed won't raise rates, but remains hawkish throughout.
July FOMC meeting to be held: interest rates remain unchanged
It seems positive, but in reality, it hides significant risks!
This vote saw a rare 9:3 split, with three members insisting on raising interest rates
This is the most hawkish non-interest ⚠️ rate hike in recent years
Plain translation:
✅ Short-term: No black swan rate hikes, BTC is entering a window for recovery and rebound
❌ Medium to long-term: The high interest rate cycle continues, and rate cut expectations keep being delayed
In a high interest rate environment, BTC, as a non-interest-bearing risk asset, finds it difficult to exit a major bull market, with upward pressure firmly suppressing $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
$XMETA $XAMZN $XMSFT
三家同属巨头，微软起家于操作系统（OS）后向办公软件，服务器等现任核心业务云服务，更多的是对企业端的服务（B2B）
meta,由扎克伯格创立，前身为facebook,21年更名，旗下拥有Facebook、Instagram、WhatsApp、Threads等社交应用家族，以及Reality Labs（VR/AR元宇宙业务）主要是向广告主收费的B2C广告平台，AI目前主要用于提升广告推荐效率
而amzn,从原本网上卖书的网上商店，发展到如今的横跨电子商务、云计算、数字广告、流媒体的一家巨头
再看这三家公司，首先个人认为都是好公司，不如先看这些公司的历史股价表现
在长期维度（10-20）年
亚马逊约等于微软>meta
亚马逊 微软 (MSFT) Meta(META)
20年总回报
12,562% 2,537% 上市晚于2006年
10年总回报
555% 811% 上市时间较短
中期维度（3-5年）
Meta的弹性最大，波动也是最大
亚马逊 微软 (MSFT) Meta (META)
5年总回报
33%-41% 56%-78% 68%-95%
3年总回报
79%-88% 20%-32% 100%-144%
短期（今年以来）
亚马逊 微软 (MSFT) Meta (META)
年初至今
+0.85% -11%至-19% -3.7%至-14.4%
亚马逊相对抗跌，meta，微软相对承压
首先这三家公司经营现金流都在创新高，处于历史高位
但自由现金流有所不同
从微软上看自由现金流虽有下降，但仍保持每年约$700亿+的正现金流，是最稳健的。
对于亚马逊来说经营现金流创历史新高1,614亿美元，但资本开支（1,690亿美金）超过了经营现金流，导致自由现金流转负。
对于Meta来说Q2自由现金流仅7.84亿美元，同比暴跌91%，创近四年新低。Q2资本开支310.8亿美元，消耗了97.5% 的经营现金流。
这三家，微软最为稳健，适合在回撤时投资，（如突发事件地缘局势影响等）
而亚马逊属于比较激进的边烧钱边赚钱，经营现金流达到高值，个人认为存在一定风险，并非说亚马逊不好，只是在资本开支不断扩大，收入上升，但当烧钱速度慢慢的大于赚钱速度，或许难以为继
对于Meta来说，尽管市场下跌，但meta旗下有大量的社交类平台，相对估值较低，在风险与泡沫充分释放后
还是值得买入的，就类似于crypto里的SOL，从未来可能存在成长性来看
微软相对稳健，meta风险投资，亚马逊，可以适度在风险释放后布局还是比较妥当
@OKX中文 @OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX @可乐Cola_OKX @妍妍Eleven_OKX 📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (July 31)
According to liquidation data, be careful not to short, or you'll be pinned down by the dealers...
The amount liquidated in the past hour was approximately $3.349 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $3.3248 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $24,100
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $23.7547 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $8.304 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $15.45 million
The amount of liquidation in the past 12 hours was approximately $27.1384 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $8.933 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $18.2053 million
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $45.4761 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $11.5065 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $33.9696 million
According to $BTC liquidation data, within 4-24 hours, short liquidations crush the longs, with shorts facing continuous large-scale liquidations. The market shows a unilateral extreme short squeeze, with 24-hour short liquidations at 2.95 times the number of long positions. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being liquidated.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | July 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market rewards are no longer just "money-burning narratives," but "efficiency in spending money"—from internal divisions within the Federal Reserve to the fierce battles between Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing and new pricing power is taking shape.
🏛️ The Fed's three votes advocate for rate hikes: internal divisions not seen in a decade
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with 9 votes in favor and 3 against. Hamack of the Cleveland Fed, Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed, and Logan of the Dallas Fed advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. This was the first time since 2016 that three votes in the same direction had appeared. The Dow immediately plunged more than 1,100 points. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to determining whether to act in September.
📈 Microsoft bucks the trend by cutting capital expenditures: rose 8.5% after hours
Microsoft delivered a performance that exceeded expectations: revenue reached $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure revenue grew 43% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in four years; For the first time, Azure revenue for the year surpassed $100 billion.
What truly ignited the market was the capital expenditure guidance—lowered from the previously expected roughly $190 billion to $175 billion. After-hours stock price surged 8.5%. Against the backdrop of Google's stock price plunging due to the increased spending guidance, Microsoft's "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta's revenue hit record but plummeted: the price of AI's money-burning model
Meta released its earnings report the same day: revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. However, net profit fell 14% year-on-year to $15.85 billion; the lower limit for capital expenditure was raised from $125 billion to $130 billion; free cash flow was reduced to $784 million, hitting a nearly four-year low. In after-hours trading, the stock price once plunged more than 10%.
That same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," while Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market's reward is no longer the "money-burning narrative," but the "efficiency of spending money." Rare internal divisions within the Federal Reserve signal that the policy path is no longer certain; Microsoft traded capital spending cuts for a stock price surge, announcing that AI investment "cost reduction" is more sought after than "increased investment"; Meta's revenue hit a record high but plummeted because the market is punishing all narratives that only invest without returns. The old logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is taking shape. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5%
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours Last night, both Apple and Amazon released their earnings reports, so I'll talk about the key points I was most focused on before.
Let's start with apples.
Apple's revenue this quarter was $109.4 billion, up 16% year-over-year; Net profit was $29.8 billion, up 27% year-on-year, with both revenue and profit exceeding market expectations.
Both iPhone and Mac performed well, with service businesses continuing to hit new highs, but revenue in Greater China was still slightly below market expectations.
But that's not what I really care about.
First, the AI strategy hasn't changed much.
Second, Apple Intelligence has already begun to roll out, but Apple still hasn't released the data the market most wants to see, such as user usage rates, whether it drives phone upgrades, or how it will commercialize in the future.
Third, there have been no clear signals of AI mergers, partnerships, or further increased AI investment.
So my view hasn't changed.
Apple has proven its core remains strong, but AI has not yet become the next growth curve.
Now, let's talk about Amazon.
Amazon's revenue this quarter was $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year.
AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth rate in nearly 18 quarters.
Operating profit reached $27.5 billion, continuing to set new all-time highs.
Net profit is $62.6 billion, but you must look at this clearly.
A net profit of $62.6 billion does not mean the main business suddenly made so much profit.
Most of this comes from investment gains from the fair value appreciation of Amazon's Anthropic stake.
What truly demonstrates the profitability of its main business is its $27.5 billion operating profit and AWS's 37% growth.
Another point worth noting is capital expenditure.
Management continues to increase investment in AI infrastructure, while clearly stating that the biggest current constraint is still not demand, but production capacity.
This is also why free cash flow remains under pressure—not because business is worsening, but because companies are choosing to keep investing in data centers, GPUs, and AI infrastructure.
So I believe Amazon's earnings report is not really positive about $62.6 billion in net profit, but about three other factors:
First, AWS continues to accelerate, indicating that demand for AI computing power remains strong.
Second, operating profit continues to grow, indicating that AI investment has begun to deliver operating results.
Third, management has not only failed to cut capital expenditures, but has instead continued to ramp up investment in AI infrastructure.
This shows that, at least from Amazon's own perspective, AI demand is far from peaking.Through the scope, the $1.65 billion figure crossed the crosshair, like a calibrated armor-piercing round. The target is not a single server cluster, but the most critical ballistic correction rights on the AI training battlefield.
I crouched on a high vantage point, observing the wind bias. The direction is clear—the scope of cloud computing giants' firepower is rapidly shrinking from pure computing warehouses to software scheduling layers. Anyscale gripped the Ray frame in his hand. That thing was no ordinary scope—it was a distributed fire control system that could calculate the trajectory of a hundred thousand rounds and automatically correct wind deviation. With it, GPU clusters are no longer a stagnant iron battleground, but intelligent bullet screens that cover the entire battlefield.
Nscale played this hand poorly. They used to be just arms dealers selling GPUs, but now they plan to weld the fire control software and gun barrels shut. Soft and hard integration, self-repairing trajectory—what does this mean? This means the aiming cycle has shortened from milliseconds to microseconds, and the heavy armor of AWS and Azure will be torn open by a crack that once didn't exist before AI workloads.
My rangefinder is locked onto those engineers—two hundred, not numbers, but two hundred precision guidance modules. They carry the Ray framework's source code, like carrying a complete battlefield mapping database. After the acquisition, Nscale's impact point distribution becomes exceptionally concentrated, with every computational power shot landing where neural network training is most needed, without wasting a single joule.
The wind has shifted. Crypto VCs put away their night vision devices, moving funds from the blockchain watchtower into the bunker of AI computing. This is not betrayal; snipers are never loyal to any particular position, only to the value of their targets. XLITE, this collaborative target, is faintly appearing on the same trajectory—the degree of infrastructure integration determines the probability distribution of its future headshots.
I reset it to zero. The 1.65 billion round has already been loaded, with a Ray frame head, two hundred engineers for propellant, and a Nscale GPU cloud rifling. It isn't targeting today, but the firepower gap three quarters from now.
The timing to pull the trigger is never at the moment of the news release. A true hunter only completes locking on the day the bounce point appears.
But the intelligence was already confirmed. This bullet will break through the old defenses of AI infrastructure.
#影响周期·Third Grade #行业趋势· AI Infrastructure · Cloud Computing #Nscale· Anyscale·$1.65 billion· Ray frameReviewing the three global financial crises, the patterns are strikingly consistent:
📉 1997 Asian financial crisis
The Korean won was the first to collapse, the Korean stock market plunged 76%, and foreign exchange reserves were completely depleted. Just 12 trading days later, US stocks officially broke through and the global bear market fully began.
📉 2000: The dot-com bubble burst
Before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, the Korean semiconductor market was the first to plunge in February.
One month later, the Nasdaq index peaked and then plunged 78%. The global tech bubble has completely burst.
📉 The 2008 subprime crisis
In July of that year, South Korea's stock indices began to plummet, dropping 36% in a month, with both stocks and currency hitting the market. Just a month and a half later, Lehman Brothers collapsed with a bang, triggering the global financial crisis, with the S&P dropping as much as 50%.
As the world's most leveraged, most dependent on foreign trade, and most capital-sensitive economy, South Korea serves as the front radar of global capital markets.
All three historic financial crises began with the crash of the Korean stock market, because South Korea had no foreign exchange controls and American capital moved in and out freely.
This time, with the deleveraging collapse of the Korean stock market, we must be cautious and warn in advance — could this be a signal that the AI bubble is bursting?
#金融干货 #股市认知 #经济周期 #投资理财 #全球市场 #AI巨头债券利差飙升: Investment risks are still good opportunities to buy at the bottom PCE cooling is positive for BTC, but equating it directly with a new rally is still a bit early. BEA data shows that in June, PCE fell 0.1% month-on-month and year-on-year to 3.7%, while core PCE was 3.3% year-on-year; In the second quarter, GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.5%, but private domestic final sales grew by 3.9%. This set of data resembles "inflation cooling and domestic demand remaining resilient," not a one-way easing signal. As of the release date, BTC was around $64,300. On the downside, let's first see if support can continue near 64,000, while the resistance range between 64,800 and 65,400 remains a pullback zone. If it were just a momentary surge without volume continuously expanding, it would be more like a rebound stimulated by news; If the low rises during pullbacks, spot buying can also be supported, increasing the probability of the market continuing. So the key issue in this round isn't "whether the data is good," but whether the market is willing to keep buying after the positive news emerges. If it falls below 63,900 again, the above bullish observation will need to be reassessed. This is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% $BTC BSC has Binance Exchange, RH Chain has Robin Hood, Base has Coinbase, and even Xlayer has OKX Exchange. Because of the expectation of listing, these meme users will see high listings.
I don't understand why Solana doesn't cooperate with exchanges. After FTX fell, Backpack was also a good choice. Is it because there are too many factions among Solana ecosystem projects and their relationships aren't good?📊 $RE Contract Liquidation Express (July 31)
According to liquidation data, short sellers be careful, the dog whales are grinding you down...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $2,977.34
Long position liquidations about $2,972.79
Short position liquidations about $4.55
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $22,600
Long position liquidations about $5,127.31
Short position liquidations about $17,500
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $159,000
Long position liquidations about $85,600
Short position liquidations about $73,300
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $425,200
Long position liquidations about $296,200
Short position liquidations about $129,000
From the $RE liquidation data, recent long position liquidations dominate, indicating a continued long squeeze; 24-hour long liquidations crush shorts, with long liquidations 2.3 times that of shorts, showing a one-sided long kill pattern. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get liquidated.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | July 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative," but rather the "efficiency of spending"—from the Fed's internal split to the contrasting fortunes of Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is forming.
🏛️ Fed's three votes for rate hike: an internal split unseen in a decade
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Fed voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Cleveland Fed's Harker, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan voted for a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned. The Dow immediately plunged over 1100 points. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to judging whether action will be taken in September.
📈 Microsoft cuts capital expenditure against the trend: after-hours up 8.5%
Microsoft delivered better-than-expected results: revenue $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure revenue up 43% year-over-year, the fastest growth in four years; annual Azure revenue surpasses $100 billion for the first time.
What truly ignited the market was the capex guidance—revised down from about $190 billion to $175 billion. After-hours stock price surged 8.5%. Against the backdrop of Google's stock plummeting due to increased spending guidance, Microsoft's "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta's record revenue but plummeting stock: the cost of AI money burning
Meta reported on the same day: revenue $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly beating expectations. But net profit fell 14% year-over-year to $15.85 billion; capex floor raised from $125 billion to $130 billion; free cash flow only $784 million, a nearly four-year low. After-hours stock price once plunged over 10%.
On the same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative," but the "efficiency of spending." The rare internal split at the Fed signals policy path uncertainty; Microsoft’s capex cut triggered a stock surge, signaling that "cost reduction" in AI investment is more favored than "increasing investment"; Meta’s record revenue but stock plunge shows the market punishes narratives with input but no return. The old logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is forming. #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌 ##美伊报复循环加速，油价月内累涨20%
一、上涨核心逻辑
1. 关键航道风险（最大利多）
霍尔木兹海峡承担全球20%~30%海运原油。美伊互相发起打击，市场持续定价航道封锁预期；叠加红海持续袭船，原油海运两条关键通道同时存在扰动，地缘风险溢价快速上行。
2. 报复循环形成负向预期
双方进入「袭击—报复」闭环：伊朗打击中东美军据点、美方威胁报复，冲突很难短期快速平息。市场不再博弈短期停火，愿意持续支付风险溢价。
3. 基本面共振托底
全球原油商业库存处在低位、OPEC+维持减产政策；三季度进入传统燃油需求旺季，没有充足库存缓冲潜在供应冲击。
二、行情特征：典型消息驱动行情
本月布伦特原油最大涨幅接近20%，特点十分鲜明：
- 冲突升级消息 → 短线暴力拉升（单日涨幅5%~8%常态化）
- 释放谈判缓和信号 → 多头集中止盈、快速回吐溢价
三、后市两大关键观察信号（判断拐点）
利多延续信号（油价继续走强）
1. 美伊实施大规模打击，不再局限于小规模导弹袭击；
2. 霍尔木兹海峡油轮通行量明显下滑，航运保险价格暴涨；
3. 胡塞武装扩大袭击范围，红海运输进一步受阻。
行情反转信号（地缘溢价快速回落）
1. 双方宣布重启实质性谈判，约定短暂停火；
2. 美国主动释放战略石油储备打压油价（油价过高会推升美国通胀，存在政策干预动机）；
3. 海湾产油国表态释放闲置产能，对冲供应风险。#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
表面看空： Q3营收指引不及预期，自由现金流转负，资本开支飙升。
实则利好： 股价盘后大涨，市场看到的不是风险，而是AI变现的“确定性”。
🔹 AWS王者归来： 增速创18个季度新高（+37%），利润率飙升至39.4%，彻底打消增长疑虑。
🔹 AI需求爆发： AI业务年化收入超$250亿，积压订单近$5000亿，需求已排至2028年。
🔹 烧钱有回报： 资本开支虽大，但正高效转化为真金白银的收入。
市场不怕AI烧钱，只怕烧钱没增长。亚马逊用AWS的强劲业绩，交出了一份满分答卷。#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 RWA shifts from narrative to asset in the account: when stocks, funds, and commodities all start moving into the same OKX account
OKX Chinese recently released a set of data: as of July 21, RWA growth mainly came from funds +$15.6 billion, commodities +$5.3 billion, and stocks +$2.2 billion. In short—real assets are truly being integrated into the digital asset market.
This is not just a slogan. BUIDL (BlackRock Tokenized Treasury Fund) continues to expand on the institutional side, while OKX is advancing its use cases as collateral; On the stock side, there are Unified Tokenized Stocks; Commodities and funds also appear across different product lines. An OKX account theoretically allows you to hold crypto assets, tokenized US stocks, tokenized Treasury yields, and even more future exposure to real assets.
This changes the boundaries of assets.
In the past, crypto accounts and traditional financial accounts were two different worlds. If you want to allocate to US stocks, you need to open a separate brokerage; If you want government bond returns, you need to buy money market funds or government bond ETFs. Now, at least in eligible regions, these things are beginning to share the same entry point, the same capital system, and the same risk control and trading tools. 7×24, USDT settlement, and the ability to combine crypto assets—once users get used to these features, they're hard to revert.
Of course, reality is not so ideal. Regulatory fragmentation still exists (US and European users cannot access some products), liquidity stratification is obvious, and legal rights (voting rights, dividend processing, bankruptcy segregation) vary by issuer. In the overall active market capitalization of RWAs, stocks still account for a small proportion; government bonds and funds are the main players. But the direction has changed: from inventing assets in the crypto world itself to bringing in real-world assets and trading and settling them in crypto.
The most direct impact for ordinary users is that the granularity of asset allocation has become more refined. In the same account, you can use USDT to simultaneously express your views on AI chip stocks, your demand for US Treasury yields, and your exposure to crypto volatility. There are more possibilities for combinations, but the complexity of decision-making also increases.
In the next six months, what really matters is not how many US stocks have been added, but whether the capital flows among these assets are truly active. How many funds have shifted from pure crypto positions to tokenized stocks and funds, and how many institutions have started using BUIDL assets as collateral? If these numbers start to rise significantly, RWA is no longer just a PPT narrative, but a real change in the account balance.
OKX's choice in this round was clear: first focus on the entry point and unified experience, then discuss deeper institutional integration. This may be the most pragmatic path at present.
#新手必看: Everything you need is here Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to your seats. You’re staring at the numbers on the screen like you’re staring at the empty top hat in my hand—but the real trick is never inside the hat.
Amazon’s earnings report is a perfect feast of “optical illusion.” Revenue of 200 billion? Profit soaring? These are just the confetti I toss into the air to catch your eye, cheap fireworks. The real card hidden up the sleeve is the casually mentioned “Q3 guidance below expectations.” Normally, that card would be enough to crash the stock price, just like Meta’s Waterloo the day before. But look, the stock didn’t fall; it jumped nine percentage points instead. Why? Because the house wants exactly that effect—when you think it’s about to pull a dove out, it instead pulls a rabbit from the hat.
Let’s break down this scene as the magician’s desk work. Act one is called “shuffling.” AWS, the flagship, reappears with a 37% growth rate, and profit margins close to 40%—this is the open card shown to the entire audience, meaning “watch closely, my core trick is still solid.” Act two is “hiding the card.” Annual capital expenditure quietly increased to 220 billion, real money to be burned in the future. But on tonight’s stage, this sum is packaged as “a necessary cost of growth,” like hiding the ace of spades in one palm while pointing to the sky with the other hand.
You ask, is AWS a money-printing machine in the cloud, or a 220 billion bill? A silly question. The magician never cares about the bill; he only cares where the audience’s eyes are. As long as the cloud business keeps accelerating, the market is willing to pay the ticket price for this show. This is the illusion logic of today’s capital markets: the allure of the story always outweighs the honesty of the numbers on the books. The same AI script, Microsoft delivered the answer, Meta botched the story. And Amazon, it uses AWS’s profits as bait while hiding massive capital expenditures in its cloak—this is called a “dual-line technique,” letting you see a real performance while making you blind to the huge backstage spending.
As for that so-called “XTSM” linkage? That’s just the audience whispering in the stands, a minor side act on the periphery. The real bet is always placed at the moment the house flips the card. Remember, when everyone is staring and shouting at the revenue numbers, you should be watching the thick stack of new cards in the magician’s other hand—that’s the ammo for his next performance and what he least wants you to see right now.
Ninety-nine percent of the audience is focused on the disappearing dove, while the seasoned gambler only pays attention to whether the magician’s pants pocket is bulging. #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
Amazon revealed its "trump card":
Its cloud business (AWS) is like a money printing machine, earning much more this quarter than everyone expected, with growth hitting a nearly 5-year high.
Even more astonishing, it already holds $500 billion worth of orders for the next 3 years—meaning the money for the coming years is already secured, no worries about sales.
So why does its stock price rise instead of fall despite the aggressive spending (capital expenditure)?
Apple’s chip shortage is a bottleneck causing forced production cuts, which scares the market.
Amazon’s spending on building data centers is because orders are too many and capacity is insufficient;
It is proactively expanding production. The boss directly said: "I’m spending 220 billion now, and even by 2028 capacity won’t be enough."
The market hears this and thinks: Oh, spending is because business is booming, so let’s rally!
Amazon’s "guidance miss" is only slightly off and has solid reasons; meanwhile, its cloud business is booming and orders are piling up, so the market sees a better future, causing the stock price to rise instead of fall. This is completely different from Apple’s "real slowdown."Operating profit and investment income need to be separated in columns: Why can't the EPS of Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta be compared horizontally?
The official results of this round show that even with the same GAAP EPS, the underlying non-operating items can be completely different. In Q2, Amazon diluted EPS by $5.75 and net profit of $62.647 billion, but its income statement included $53.415 billion in other income, mainly from pre-tax gains related to Anthropic investments; Microsoft FY2026 Q4 diluted EPS of $4.81 and net profit of $35.766 billion, also influenced by investments in Anthropic and OpenAI; Meta's Q2 EPS was $6.18 and net profit was $15.848 billion, with the main pressures for the quarter coming from operating expenses and higher effective tax rates.
First, look at operating profit to establish a baseline for comparison. Amazon's consolidated operating profit was $27.461 billion, up 43% year-over-year; Microsoft's consolidated operating profit was $40.603 billion, up 18%; Meta's consolidated operating profit was $18.775 billion, down 8%. Operating profit is still affected by the definitions of each company segment and cost classification, but at least interest, investment revaluation, and income tax are placed at the back, making it closer to the core business direction this quarter.
Amazon's gap is the most obvious. After $27.461 billion in operating profit plus substantial other income, pre-tax profit reached $80.857 billion, and after deducting $18.199 billion in taxes, net profit was formed. Investment income is a true GAAP item, but it does not equate to AWS customer payments or retail transaction cash. The cash flow statement has made a negative adjustment of related non-operating income to $53.381 billion, further proving that net profit and operating cash flow should be viewed separately.
Microsoft's core business and investments simultaneously contribute positively. Q4 revenue: $90.007 billion, operating profit $40.603 billion; The company disclosed approximately $3.2 billion in Anthropic investment income, with OpenAI's investment contributing $480 million positively to GAAP net income, and non-GAAP net income of $35.286 billion and EPS of $474 excluding OpenAI investment impact. Company adjustments in caliber help with comparisons, but they should not be treated as the only "true" figures, nor should they assume all other discrete items have been excluded.
Meta is heading in a different direction. Q2 revenue was $60.801 billion, with costs and expenses of $42.026 billion, and operating profit margin dropping from 43% to 31%; This included $2.4 billion in legal proceedings and $1.18 billion in severance pays. Pre-tax profit was $18.756 billion, income tax expense was $2.908 billion, and the effective tax rate increased from 11% to 16%. These incurred expenses must be retained in the GAAP results and cannot be deleted simply because they may not continue.
The three companies cannot be ranked solely by their EPS numbers, as the number of outstanding shares and the denominator per share are different. Amazon's diluted weighted average shares are about 10.898 billion shares, Microsoft's is about 7.442 billion, and Meta's is about 2.566 billion. EPS is the per-share result within each company, not a common unit for comparing size or valuation across companies.
A more reliable horizontal reading order is: first compare income and operating profit directions, then list interest, investment income, and other non-operating items, then look at tax rates and net profit, and finally read EPS. If net profit growth far exceeds operating profit, then check the investment revaluation; If revenue increases but operating profit declines, check costs, legal issues, severance, and depreciation.
Current official data supports the conclusion that both Amazon and Microsoft's core operating profits are growing, but GAAP net profit is further amplified by investment income; Meta's advertising revenue continues to grow, but quarterly operating profit and EPS are under pressure from expenses and tax rates. This is not about excluding GAAP, but about breaking down GAAP results into traceable sources to avoid misrepresenting a single investment valuation change as sustainable earnings for all product lines.Apple's financial report "flopped": Why did EPS plunge after beating expectations?
In the early morning, Apple's earnings report staged a dramatic turn of positive news into negative news: Q3 earnings per share at $2.02 clearly exceeded expectations, but the stock plunged due to weak revenue guidance for next quarter (+9% to +11%) and supply constraint warnings. Behind this lie three heartbreaking truths:
1. Wall Street buys the "future," not the "past"
EPS exceeding expectations is just "sunk cost," with institutions placing more emphasis on future guidance. Apple's revenue growth next quarter falling short of expectations shatters the market's illusion of an "AI replacement boom"—when reality can't beat expectations, capital naturally votes with its feet.
2. Supply chain "ghost stories" are scarier than AI
The warning of "significantly increased supply constraints" exposed Apple's declining control over the upstream chain. The vulnerability of the global supply chain is backlashing at giants: wanting to sell goods but unable to manufacture, or producing at too high cost. This is not a short-term disturbance, but a Damocles sword hanging overhead.
3. "Unexpected rebound" is an emotional trap for retail investors
Chasers are misled by "EPS beating expectations," but overlook that the "earnings day" of tech stocks is essentially a "forecast correction day." Institutions have long filled AI narratives with expectations, and when the reality in financial reports (supply constraints, slow AI monetization) cracks with expectations, "all the good news is gone" becomes a classic scenario for harvesting retail investors.
This volatility is more like a mirror: are you believing in Apple's long-term value holdings, or are you swept up by the "AI concept"? If it's the latter, maybe it's time to reconsider your holding logic. 📌 Live trading statement: BTC spot long-term holding + index fund regular investment, no contract leverage. This batch of news does not change the portfolio plan. 1. Fear and Greed Index of 24, $BTC Holding on to $65K — Who's Lying? The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 24, and the market trembled in fear. But BTC remained rock solid at $65K, rising nearly 2% in 24 hours. Deribit's put/call ratio is 0.44—traders are buying calls like crazy. OKX's is 1.49—the same group is frantically buying puts. The same asset, the same price, two exchanges made completely opposite bets. The market is not fearful; it is divided. Half of the people are bottom-fishing, half are fleeing, and the price is stuck in the middle, unmoving. The Fear Index measures sentiment, while price measures real money. When the two are at odds, always trust the price. Trading judgment: When emotions are extreme, trade against the others, but only if the price does not crash. The current stability of BTC prices indicates that real money is taking over. Regular investment continues, neither increasing nor decreasing positions. #BTC #市场分析 #恐惧贪婪指数 2. US listed companies hoard 510,000 BTC in one year—miners' output is tripled and consumed U.S. listed companies now hold 1.24 million BTC, accounting for 92.7% of the global publicly listed company. In the past year, 510,000 coins were purchased—three times the output of miners during the same period. The Fear and Greed Index is 24, meaning "extreme fear." But companies with SEC disclosure obligations are eating at three times the mining speed📊 $WLD Contract Liquidation Update (July 31)
According to liquidation data, be careful with short positions; the dog whales are grinding them down...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $8,594.46
Long position liquidations about $8,412.21
Short position liquidations about $182.25
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $157,200
Long position liquidations about $147,900
Short position liquidations about $9,277.34
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $197,100
Long position liquidations about $163,000
Short position liquidations about $34,100
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $278,700
Long position liquidations about $213,400
Short position liquidations about $65,400
From the $WLD liquidation data, long position liquidations overwhelmingly surpass short positions, with shorts showing almost zero resistance throughout, indicating an extremely one-sided long liquidation market. The 24-hour long liquidation is 3.3 times that of shorts. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid liquidation.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative" but rather the "efficiency of spending"—from the Fed's internal split to the contrasting fortunes of Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing and new pricing power is emerging.
🏛️ Fed's Three Votes for Rate Hike: A Split Not Seen in a Decade
In early July 30 Beijing time, the Fed voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Cleveland Fed's Harker, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan voted for a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned. The Dow promptly plunged over 1100 points. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to judging whether action will be taken in September.
📈 Microsoft Cuts Capital Expenditure Against the Trend: After-hours Up 8.5%
Microsoft delivered better-than-expected results: revenue of $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure revenue up 43% year-over-year, the fastest growth in four years; annual Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time.
What truly ignited the market was the capital expenditure guidance—revised down from about $190 billion to $175 billion. After-hours stock price surged 8.5%. Against the backdrop of Google's stock plunge due to increased spending guidance, Microsoft's "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta's Record Revenue Yet Plummeting Stock: The Cost of AI's Money Burn Model
Meta reported on the same day: revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. But net profit fell 14% year-over-year to $15.85 billion; capital expenditure floor raised from $125 billion to $130 billion; free cash flow only $784 million, a nearly four-year low. After-hours stock price once plunged over 10%.
On the same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," while Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative" but the "efficiency of spending." The rare internal split at the Fed signals policy path uncertainty; Microsoft’s capital expenditure cut leading to a stock surge declares that "cost reduction" in AI investment is more favored than "increasing investment"; Meta’s record revenue but stock plunge shows the market punishes narratives with input but no return. The old logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is forming. #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌 🔥
Many people think of cryptocurrencies
The ultimate question is "who rises the highest."
In fact, they were mistaken.
The wars of the next decade will not be about whose price is highest.
It's about who can become the infrastructure of the global digital economy.
@热门话题 #BTC #ETH #SOL #SUI #OKB #加密货币
Bitcoin's greatest value:
Not payment.
Instead, it became the first truly digital scarce asset in human history.
It addresses:
"How to preserve wealth long-term without a central institution."
Ethereum's biggest ambitions:
Not issuing tokens.
Instead, it aims to become a global open finance and application platform.
In the future, finance, assets, identity, and protocols may all be built upon it.
Solana is proving that:
Blockchain doesn't have to develop slowly.
It can pursue speeds close to internet level.
If a large number of users enter the on-chain world in the future,
Speed and experience will become increasingly important.
SUI represents another kind of vision:
The next generation of blockchain may not fully replicate the past.
New architecture, new development methods, new user experience,
It may create new markets.
OKB represents a different direction:
Entrance.
Many people overlook one point:
In the internet era,
The most profitable people are not the server makers.
It's about the person who controls the user entry point.
If ordinary users enter Web3 in the future:
The first step is the transaction,
The second step is the wallet,
The third step is application.
then platforms with huge user entry points,
Value may be redefined.
So the real future competition:
It's not BTC or ETH who wins.
Nor is it about who wins between SOL and SUI.
Instead:
Who can continuously acquire users?
Who can attract developers?
Who can form a true ecological closed loop?
Ten years ago,
Many people don't understand why internet giants are valued so highly.
Because they only see the product,
No network effects are visible.
Today's crypto market is no different.
A truly great opportunity,
often hidden in value revaluations that have not yet been fully understood.
Looking Back at 2030:
Many of the things being debated now,
Perhaps all of them will become history.
Who do you think will be the biggest winner in the future?
BTC？
ETH？
SOL？
SUI？
Or OKB?
Leave your answers in the comments section.
🔥 Save it and come back years later to verify it.I'm Ci Ge. The daily data is out: BTC stands above 65,118, up 2.14%, while ETH is at 1,928. The Nasdaq surged 2.8%, the storage sector rebounded violently, SanDisk rose over 17%, and SK Hynix surged 24% to 25%. The market is verifying all previous judgments.
BTC is approaching the short liquidation zone, and the direction is about to be decided
BTC is currently at 65,118, with a large number of 50x and 100x short liquidation orders gathering in the 65,400 to 66,000 range above. If it breaks above 65,500, short closing will amplify upward momentum. Short liquidations above are about $400 million, while long positions below are about $420 million, with both sides nearly even. Long and short positions are in the same direction, but short positions have higher leverage, so once a breakout occurs, the stamping speed will be faster.
The tech stock market has reached a turning point, and delivering on earnings is the real deal
Microsoft rose over 15%, Azure cloud revenue grew 43%, surpassing $100 billion for the first time this fiscal year. Amazon rose about 9%, AWS grew 37%, and capital expenditures were raised to $220 billion. The two giants have proven their solid results to the market that AI is not a bottomless pit that burns money. Meta fell about 8.6%, with future spending commitments approaching $700 billion. The market is using prices to tell you that those who keep dreaming will be abandoned.
The storage sector's short squeeze confirmed previous judgments
SanDisk rose over 17%, and SK Hynix surged 24% to 25%. Choi Tae-won's first personal purchase, expectations of a storage supply shortage, and Microsoft's earnings report as catalysts combine to drive three factors. The 1046.62 long position was pulled out from the deepest panic, with a single-day floating profit exceeding 1500 points. The storage sector is not a rebound, but a short squeeze.
Operationally
Continue holding long positions below 63,000, with stop-loss moved up to 63,500. The above range between 65,400 and 66,000 is the short liquidation zone. If volume breaks through, BTC is expected to test 67,000. If this range is blocked, there may be a short-term pullback, but the medium-term upward direction remains unchanged.
The short squeeze in the storage sector proves that the fundamentals of AI hardware have not collapsed; the AI narrative has reached a watershed moment, not the end. Hold onto your positions, don't let fluctuations scare you away.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but its stock price reversed by 9% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期, with post-hours shares plunging $BTC $ETH #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5%. The US June PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first monthly negative since 2020, dropping from 4.1% year-on-year to 3.7%. Core PCE year-on-year was 3.3%, in line with expectations; The preliminary Q2 GDP announced on the same day saw an annualized growth of 1.5%, lower than the expected 2.1%, but after excluding net exports, inventories, and government spending, domestic private final sales grew by 3.9%, the highest since early 2023. Cooling inflation weakens the urgency for immediate rate hikes, while strong domestic demand provides support for tightening supporters. About 63% of rate hikes in September are facing recalibration. Whether this turnaround is the start of a trend or a single-month phenomenon due to oil price disturbances remains to be judged by July data $ETH $BTC $ETH #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slows to 1.5%. Scenario 1: Explicitly indicating an autumn rate hike (hawkish, October hike hints / emphasizes upside inflation risks / hints at a weak yen). Probability: about 35–40% (the market priced a rate hike in October at 68–78%, but Ueda himself called it a "confirmation" rather than an "accident") Mechanism: Yen carry unwinds and the → dollar falls, yen rebounds→ a weak dollar is favorable for BTC, but arbitrage sellers sell highly liquid assets to cover the selling pressure on the yen BTC/ETH fell first, then watched the US stock market. • BTC: Instantly test 64,200 → 63,800 (50-day moving average); → break at 63,275; if US stocks weaken in tandem, insert pins at 62,750–62,000 • ETH: Instantly test 1,910 → 1,880 → break 1,848 to target 1,800; ETH is highly beta, with drops usually 1.3–1.5 times BTC • JPY: USD/JPY breaks 158, tests around 157 Scenario 2: Vague neutrality (most baseline scenario, maintaining "data dependence") , do not deny or promise in October) Probability: about 45–50% (Morgan Stanley benchmark scenario means "no clear foresight", add in December) Mechanism: Decision already priced + no new wording → Yen pullback intervention partially pulled back gains, risk assets followed a "sell fact" trend with slight fluctuations, B[Today's main theme is clear: funds returning to AI hardware]
The most obvious signal in the Asia-Pacific market today is a renewed flow of capital into semiconductors and AI hardware.
Korean stocks performed the strongest.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both rose together, directly driving a rebound in KOSPI, indicating that the market has resumed trading demand for memory chips, HBM, and AI computing power.
The Japanese market is also recovering simultaneously, with the technology and semiconductor sectors showing a clear rebound.
In contrast, the pace of A-shares is somewhat weaker.
Tech stocks fell too much yesterday, and short-term sentiment has not fully recovered. For now, we need to wait for confirmation signals of a stabilization and capital flows back.
The overnight rebound in US stocks was mainly driven by Microsoft's earnings report and the recovery in the chip and storage sectors.
However, it is not yet time to hastily label this round of rally as a reversal.
From a market structure perspective, it looks more like an oversold recovery after consecutive declines; whether the real trend has reversed still needs further confirmation.
Next, focus on three directions:
Semiconductors, HBM, CPO.
Whether these core AI hardware sectors can stabilize is more important than how much the index rose in a single day.
Core sectors stabilize for the rebound to continue; If it's just the index rising and the tech theme continuing to weaken, then we can only view it as a recovery trend.
The above is solely a personal market observation and does not constitute any investment advice.#苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours
Stocks look at the "future," so when people hear 60 points, they get scared off.
To put it simply, the reasons can be summarized in three points:
The biggest warning: the next quarter is too pessimistic (main reason).
Apple itself forecasts growth next quarter to be only 9%-11%, while Wall Street expects at least 12% or more.
This shows that even Apple itself feels its business ahead is not as good as it imagined.
It doesn't sell well enough in China.
Although revenue in Greater China increased, it did not meet analysts' high expectations. With domestic phones (foldables, etc.) competing for business, many worry that Apple is no longer as "attractive" in China.
Costs have risen, and profits have thinned. Chip shortages and outrageous memory (storage) prices have skyrocketed; Cook called this a "once-in-a-century" price increase.
Apple itself can't even afford to raise the price of its computers and tablets, which will lead to shrinking profits next quarter.
Apple scored 100 points in this "final exam" (performance exceeded expectations), but immediately announced that "next month's exam will only allow 60 points" (next quarter's guidance is very poor)
In short: No matter how much money you made in the past, it was already in the stock price. The market's biggest fear is that future performance will slow down, so even if this performance is impressive, the stock price will still plummet. $AAPL 2014: Mt. Gox collapses, BTC at $200, bottoming out after 3 weeks.
2018: BitGrail collapsed, BTC at $3,200, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2022: FTX collapsed, BTC at $16,000, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2026: BitMEX collapses, BTC $63,000, bottoming out in 2-3 weeks?
Every time, the market says, "This time is different."
Every time, the market is wrong.
The difference is: the market caps of BTC in the first three rounds were $2B, $20B, and $300B respectively. Now it's $1.3T.
Same rules, but on a larger scale. $BTC $ETH $SOL $TSLA $NVDA $SPCX#美伊报复循环加速, oil prices have risen 20% this month
Crude oil and related risk assets are handled with high volatility and a cautious approach. Oil prices have risen sharply this month, but every time conflict news shifts from escalation to easing, prices quickly retreat, indicating the market is willing to give a geopolitical risk premium but is reluctant to treat supply disruptions as a certainty.
Brent briefly climbed back near $90, and after WTI surged, it fell below $81. The price swing is not due to the loss of supply and demand logic, but rather the trading market repeatedly quoting war risks. Escalating conflicts can push up risk premiums, and pausing mutual attacks will quickly loosen this premium, with the side chasing gains bearing the risk of event reversals.
The real bet is whether the situation will shift from military retaliation to ongoing disruptions in transportation or supply. If the oil production side is not subject to real limitations, a 20% monthly increase is likely to be profit-taking; If the conflict escalates further, rising energy prices will be linked to weaker inflation data, making it harder to assess interest rate expectations and risk appetite. It will depend on whether the situation continues to escalate and whether oil prices can maintain sustained support at high levels.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.#美股加密标的承压, coin price fluctuations affect financial reports
I am cautious about US crypto stocks; in the short term, the weakest are not necessarily the companies holding the most coins, but those most dependent on trading activity. Strategy's massive losses are glaring but mainly due to accounting write-downs; Coinbase's revenue fell short of expectations, reflecting a real contraction in trading volume and profitability.
Strategy holds a large amount of BTC, so changes in average cost and current price directly amplify quarterly report volatility, but not selling coins does not immediately deteriorate operating cash flow. Coinbase's problem is even more direct: the price drop combined with declining spot trading volume means the platform's fee engine slows down first, naturally causing the market to push down its valuation.
Both companies are influenced by coin prices, but their pricing logic is completely different. Strategy is more like a highly volatile BTC balance sheet, with book pressure reversible when prices recover; Coinbase needs to recover transactions to demonstrate revenue elasticity. If BTC only rebounds and trading volume does not recover, the pressure on COIN will not automatically disappear just because the price stabilizes; Conversely, a rebound in activity is the turning point that carries more weight.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.