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💥【Contract Data】Long positions got buried again
🔥 24h total liquidations $434 million, 74% are long positions
📊 OI (Open Interest) as high as $67.9 billion, leverage still heavy
⚠️ This is the second time 87,000 has been rejected at the door
📍Latest data
BTC: Around 84,600, consolidating in the 84,000-85,000 range
24h total liquidations: $433.57M, longs account for 74%
Interest rate hike expectations cooling: October hike probability dropped from 66% to 22%
📊Analysis
① Long liquidations dominate, indicating longs chasing 87,000 were hit back hard
② OI remains high, leverage not truly cleared, future volatility likely to be amplified
③ Cooling rate hike expectations are bullish but failed to offset profit-taking pressure at highs
🎯Key levels
Hold 83,898 → maintain range consolidation
Break below 83,898 → may accelerate towards 80,000
💬 This wave of "longs buried," do you think it's a shakeout or a real drop?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 When looking up at the moon, you also need to look down to pick up pennies.
This is the logic behind my simultaneous allocation to SPCX and Kweichow Moutai.
SPCX is the moon: ideals, growth, and a more distant future.
Kweichow Moutai is the sixpence at your feet: cash flow, dividends, and life itself. It frees you from worrying about your next meal, giving you the confidence and peace of mind to keep looking up at that bright moon.
Ideals stretch your vision far ahead, reality ensures your life is secure. Having both means you can walk steadily and see far.I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Data focus: $BTC options expiration at 30,500 contracts, Put Call Ratio 1.07, max pain point 82,000, notional value 2.63 billion; $ETH expiration at 116,000 contracts, PCR 1.17, max pain point 2,660, notional 320 million. In the first week after quarterly settlement, BTC oscillated around 85,000 for over a week, rebounded on settlement day, with bullish large volume activity. Volatility-wise, the main term implied volatility has dropped compared to last week a$SAND
The blockchain gaming sector suddenly lit up today.
SAND current price 0.0752, up 19.6% in 24 hours, contract funding rate turned negative, shorts are still piling in.
Directionally, I'm bullish; if it holds above 0.07 on the pullback, I'll keep holding, if it drops below 0.065, then we'll reconsider.
$SAND 【Crypto Circle Script】
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在
Before last night's nonfarm payrolls release, many brothers thought that with such poor employment, the Federal Reserve would finally ease up.
But U.S. Treasuries first fell then rose, and long-term yields were pulled back.
This shows that nonfarm payrolls can only affect short-term rate hike expectations, but cannot suppress long-term interest rates.
Because long-term U.S. Treasuries consider not only employment but also inflation, energy prices, fiscal deficits, and how much more debt the U.S. will issue.
Simply put, the short end listens to the Fed's speeches, while the long end calculates America's own accounts.
Employment is cooling down, which should theoretically be good for easing.
But long-term interest rates refuse to come down, and risk assets still can't catch a break.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $SAND 两天涨 92%：一次漏洞、一次解禁、一场挤空 SAND 两天从 0.043180 涨到 0.082990，+92.2%。我把原因按时间排了一遍，结论有点反直觉： 它不是利好推动的，是"风险被解除"推动的。 这波怎么走出来的 10 月 2 日收 0.062200（+41.30%）：4 小时上 +17.14% 之后又回吐 −9.62%。 10 月 3 日摸到 0.082990、收 0.077320（+24.33%），节奏是 04:00 +10.82% → 08:00 +14.72% → 12:00 见高点 → 16:00 −6.39% → 20:00 +6.78%。 现价 0.0758。两天 +92.2%，中间没有一天是平的：这不是慢牛，是事件。 起因：5 亿枚 $SAND 被"无背书增发" | 时间 | 发生了什么 | |---|---| | 事件发生 | 有人在 Base 与 BSC 上用跨链桥漏洞铸造了 5 亿枚无背书 SAND | | 项目方回应 | The Sandbox 称已控制住漏洞；实际损失约 70 万美元 | | 交易所反应 | Upbit、Bithumb、CFollow-up Attention
Date Event Potential Impact
Ongoing Attention Iran Strait of Hormuz Situation Geopolitical risk escalation will suppress risk appetite, rising oil prices strengthen inflation expectations
October 14 US CPI Data If inflation exceeds expectations, December rate hike expectations may intensify
October 27-28 FOMC Meeting October rate hike probability only 15%-17%, but "wait and see in December" becomes the mainstream logic $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 【5000 U Challenge 10000 U｜Dual-Coin Profit Real Trading Diary】
Day 18
Starting Capital: 5000U
Current Capital: 4976.76U
Cumulative Profit: -23.24U (-0.46%)
Today's Profit: -66.84U (-1.32%)
Market Review 📝
The probing during data week continues, with the non-farm payroll and PCE expectations repeatedly tugging the market. ZEC has started to pull back, with neither bulls nor bears establishing a clear direction, and macro bearish sentiment continues to ferment.
Tokenized assets are under simultaneous pressure; ZEC and XSOXS are the main sources of today's account drawdown. Both coins experienced significant declines, directly causing the account net value to fall below the initial starting capital for the first time.
Today's Operations & Thoughts 💡
No aggressive position increases or panic selling today.
Objectively, the overall position size is not heavy, but the drawdown still exceeded my previous expectations.
Seeing the net value curve turn downward inevitably brings some disappointment, which is an unavoidable lesson in real trading. Reviewing the situation, the core pressure of this drawdown comes from the simultaneous weakening of $ZEC and $xSOXS, with the largest current spot holding being ZEC, 900U at a cost of 1480, currently priced at 1300. The pullback of this coin directly drags down the overall account value.
Although I mainly trade spot, honestly, how far can this $ZEC correction go? At worst, it drops to 500, allowing me to slowly accumulate at low prices and sell high to earn interest back. Although following Warren Buffett's principle of not selling means no real loss, the time cost does exist.
This also reminds me that even if the total position is not high, the correlation risk within sectors must be taken seriously.
The market will never fully follow your predictions.
Here, I also want to remind fellow real traders: investing is a marathon; temporary unrealized losses are feedback from the market, not a denial of personal ability. Always manage risk well, keep a steady mindset, and avoid rushing to recover losses quickly, as haste leads to impulsive decisions.
I still hold sufficient stablecoin ammunition, no panic, no frustration, continuing to patiently observe according to the original plan, waiting for more certain signals before taking action.
⚠️ Risk Warning: This is only a personal real trading record and does not constitute any investment advice.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 最後來從消息面，還有後續要觀察哪些，來跟大家做個結尾。 傍晚 6 點之後陸續出來的東西，幫大家濃縮一下（台灣時間）。 ▌盤面數據 Coinglass：24 小時全網爆倉 3.49 億美元，多單就佔 3.07 億。 Coinglass：BTC 全網合約持倉 24 小時減少 6.05%，約 540.91 億美元。 恐慌貪婪指數（alternative.me）67，前一天 72。 OKX 晚上 10 點帳戶多空比：BTC 從傍晚 1.34 降到 1.26。 ▌ETF Farside 到 22:57，貝萊德 IBIT 跟 ETHA 週五那格還是「-」。 BTC 現貨 ETF 本週已公布的部分合計約淨流入 8,290 萬美元（不含週五 IBIT）。 以太幣現貨 ETF 週二到週四連三天淨流出，合計約 1.18 億美元。 ▌產業 Glassnode：高位進場的短期持有者在賣，成本 9.7 萬、8.9 萬的兩批買家目前套著。 以太坊 L2 Blast 宣布關閉，10/26 前可經官方介面提回主網。 Fiserv 數位資產平台上線，北達科他州銀行的 Roughrider Coin 在 Solana 上I’m the mid-term intelligence guy!
Latest news: the SEC approved 3x leveraged ETPs tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas.
This expands the leverage toolkit and could amplify short-term volatility in $BTC and $ETH. But leverage cuts both ways—pullbacks can also accelerate.
Mid: this is less about a pure bullish signal and more about traditional capital markets expanding their leveraged exposure to crypto and commodities.
#DailyOrbit $ZEC
The leader in the privacy sector is struggling a bit today.
ZEC briefly fell below 1300, currently priced at 1297, down 4.8% in 24 hours.
There is still $160 million in contract positions pressing above, and I am bearish on the direction; if the rebound can't hold above 1330, it will remain weak.
$ZEC My sister just walked by, pointed at the screen and asked, "What is this circle? It looks nice." I said this is $ONDO. She asked, "Looks nice, so what?"
I honestly didn’t know how to explain it right away. I couldn’t just say BlackRock created three tokenized portfolios and put institutional investment strategies on-chain—she would just ask if that’s basically buying a fund.
But thinking about it carefully, that’s exactly what makes this interesting. The fact that someone like BlackRock is willing to step in and build portfolios for others shows they never intended "U.S. Treasuries on-chain" to be a small-time game. I hold $ONDO, and even if it drops 9%, I accept it—not chasing quick money, but betting on a bigger direction. Today it dropped to around 0.49, volume shrank, no one’s rushing to buy or sell, just holding steady.
I lost track of how many days I’ve been dollar-cost averaging, but anyway, I’m in the car. $ONDO 我們來看一下瑞波幣的部分。 講結論：看法依舊不變，點位也是同一組。 晚上這篇，把最新的盤面跟數據補給大家。 【操作建議】 方向：做多 進場：1.5 附近 止盈：先看 1.57，再看 1.63 加碼：1.45，或是 1.4 停損：跌破 1.3 22:55 價格 1.49 左右，跟 1.5 只差一點點。 1.45、1.4 都還沒到，1.57 也還在上面。 照價位來就好，不用因為晚上小漲就跑去追，也不用因為白天那段磨盤就提早放棄。 【技術面｜1H】 幣安現貨 1 小時線，截圖時間 22:55 左右。 傍晚那時價格還被 1.4859 的綠線蓋著，現在 1.4895 已經站到它上面，這是今晚圖上最明顯的變化。 不過離第一塊紅色區的下緣還有一小段，站上綠線不等於突破。 截圖那根開 1.4867、高 1.4916、低 1.4830、收 1.4895，是一根小陽線。 上方紅色區有三層：1.527～1.555（1.5501 標記在裡面）、1.563～1.58（Strong High）、1.607～1.637。 先前的高點那邊還有一個紅色 P 標記，落在 1.56 附近。 往下看，Weak Low 在 1$ZEC The most worth watching in this wave might not be how much the price has dropped, but what the funds are actually doing after the drop.
The price has clearly pulled back, but from this set of position data, the shorts have not significantly exited.
What’s even more interesting is:
The number of short participants decreased by about 75,
but the corresponding short position size actually increased by over 22 million U.
Normally, after a price drop, the nominal value of existing short positions would shrink; now the opposite is happening.
This means that at least from the data perspective, new short funds have recently entered the market at the current level.
Looking at the average short cost, it has reached around 1299, very close to the current price.
Currently, about 77% of shorts are in profit, but overall the short positions still show a slight unrealized loss of about 410,000 U.
So what’s really worth observing is not just "whether it’s still possible to short after such a drop," but:
Are these newly entered shorts positioning for the next leg down, or are they forcing themselves into a potential short squeeze?
The market never stops fluctuating just because it "looks like it has dropped a lot."
Next, focus closely on the fund changes around 1299 and whether the price can reclaim this key level.
Data can be referenced, but the direction still needs to be verified by the market itself.
#ZEC #Crypto #加密货币 #交易Let's take a look at Dogecoin. As usual, my view hasn't changed, and all the price levels are the same. In this post tonight, I'll add the new data for everyone. [Trading Suggestions] Direction: Short. Entry: 0.1 Increase: 0.11 Stop loss: 0.12 22:55. The price is around 0.0933, with a gap of about 7% between the price and 0.1. If the price hasn't reached it, just don't move—this is exactly the same as in the evening. [Technical Perspective | 1H] Binance Perpetual 1-Hour Moving Average, screenshot taken around 22:55. The candlestick in the screenshot opened at 0.09285, High 0.09345, Low 0.09263, Closed at 0.09330, up 0.48%, making it the strongest in the past few hours. However, the price is still holding below the green line at 0.09357 and has not broken above it. The first red area above is roughly between 0.0963 and 0.0980, with the red mark 0.09773 inside, and the upper edge is the Strong High; Further up is 0.1024 to 0.1043, and there is another area. Below 0.0901 is the Weak Low, further down is the blue zone from 0.0861 to 0.0884, and near 0.0812, there is another blue band. [Chip Side] OKX Around 10:57 PM: The funding rate for this session is about 0.0071%, and the 4 PM settlement was 0.01%, all positive throughout. $BTC current price is 84782, and the external variables in the current market have become complex.
Federal Reserve's Harker stated that the non-farm payroll data aligns with employment trends, the Fed retains policy options, and no clear easing signals were given; meanwhile, the Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to ferment, with explosions and high-level secret meetings repeatedly disturbing global risk sentiment. Geopolitics is an unpredictable black swan that can cause volatility at any time.
BTC is oscillating near the middle Bollinger Band, with the upper range at 86095 and the lower range at 82929.
Around 82900 is the lower Bollinger Band plus EMA100, an important four-hour bullish defense line. Holding this level means the large oscillation pattern continues; a decisive break below opens room for a pullback.
Currently, it is very typical: macro news is mixed. The Fed's speech is neutral, neither dovish nor hawkish; Middle East geopolitical news switches between risk-off and risk-on, causing frequent false breakouts and back-and-forth washouts.
The characteristic of geopolitical news: bullish and bearish impacts come quickly and disappear quickly. Do not blindly trade on news; everything depends on price breaking the range.
Do not prematurely bet on a one-sided move before the range is broken.
BTC itself is oscillating and wearing traders down, but altcoins still experience violent rises and falls. Minimize opening contracts.
Spot trading still mainly uses BTC as the base position!
DYOR, uncertainty has greatly increased under the geopolitical environment, so be sure to manage your positions well #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Actually, when it comes to buying gold, if you believe that the future will return to a rate cut cycle, that future government debt will be difficult to digest, that future international situations will become more sensitive and diversified, and that future geopolitical frictions will increase,
then actually breaking below 4100 is a good opportunity to build positions in batches! #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 我們來看一下Solana的部分。 看法依舊不變、點位也全部照舊，這句先放最前面。 晚上這篇，把新的數字幫大家補進來。 【操作建議】 方向：做空 進場：120 附近 加碼：125 停損：140 22:55 的價格在 119.7 上下，已經貼到 120 的邊邊。 到了就是原本那套計畫，沒到就繼續等。 125 跟 140 都還離很遠，沒有要動的意思。 【技術面｜1H】 幣安永續 1 小時線，截圖時間 22:55 左右。 截圖那根開 119.37、高 119.71、低 119.08、收 119.68，下影線探了一段又收回來。 最近幾根 K 的頭上多了一個紅色 P 標記，大概落在 120.4。 再往上是 121.8～123.4 的紅色區，122.42 標記在裡面；125 那條線標著 Weak High 字樣。 下面有 117.93 的綠線，116 到 118.4 的藍色區也還在，Strong Low（約 116.2）就在區的下緣。 更下方 112.4～114.2、110.6～112 這兩塊藍色區，跟傍晚比沒有變化。 拿 OKX 對照，晚上 10 點那根最高 119.82，比白天的 119.77 Gold surged to 4226 then retreated on low volume, next week's market forecast
Non-farm payrolls are positive, gold surged above 4200 but then sharply retreated on low volume, many are puzzled why the data seems ineffective.
Positive data does not mean an immediate one-sided rise; the short-term market has already priced in some expectations in advance. There is a possibility of further decline early next week, with a risk of breaking the 4110 low. Whether the benefits from improved employment data can continue depends mainly on upcoming CPI inflation data.
Before major data thresholds, it is not advisable to act rashly. For medium to long-term trends, wait for next week's monthly close to analyze further. $XAU #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT was submitted by Republican senators on September 30 and is currently just a Senate proposal, not yet voted into law. The core idea is to standardize tax rules for crypto assets, addressing long-standing ambiguous tax issues. It is a certainty bill long awaited by the industry, overall neutral to slightly friendly, but with pros and cons.
✅ Positive aspects
Under current rules, crypto assets are taxed as property, so even using stablecoins to buy things or pay small Gas fees triggers taxable events, making tax reporting extremely complicated.
1. Ordinary users using compliant stablecoins for daily consumption will no longer incur capital gains tax (traders and institutions are not exempt).
2. On-chain Gas fees under $10 per transaction are exempt from taxable recognition, solving the tedious tax reporting problem caused by frequent retail interactions.
3. Taxes do not have to be calculated immediately upon receiving rewards; income is recognized only when sold for cash, avoiding the issue of "paper gains without cash to pay taxes."
4. Crypto lending will directly follow traditional securities lending tax rules; traders can choose mark-to-market accounting, and foreign investors have a safe harbor rule, facilitating institutional entry.
⚠️ Negative constraints
The bill extends the US stock wash sale rule to crypto assets. If you sell crypto at a loss and buy back the same asset within 30 days before or after, that loss cannot be used to offset taxes, effectively eliminating the tax loss harvesting strategy commonly used by traders, which significantly impacts short-term high-frequency traders. $BTC $ETH $BTC $ETH market feels frustrating.
PCE cooled and September NFP came in at just 29K, but U.S. stocks rallied while crypto faded after the initial pump.
BTC rejected $87.2K and sits near $84.6K.
$85.5K–$86K → reclaim for another $87.2K test.
Above $87.2K → $88K+ possible.
Below $83.8K → watch $82K, then $80K.
ETF inflows remain positive but are cooling. ETH looks weaker than BTC, so $83.8K remains the key level to watch.
#DailyOrbit 我們來看一下以太幣的部分。 先把結論擺出來：看法依舊不變，點位一樣沒改。 晚上這篇，一樣只是把資料補新。 【操作建議】 空單：2,780 附近布局 空單停損：當初沒有給，風控請大家自己拿捏 多單：2,650 附近輕倉 多單加碼：2,600 多單停損：跌破 2,400 22:55 價格在 2,681 上下，跟傍晚幾乎是同一個位置。 往上到 2,780 還有一百點左右，往下到 2,650 大概三十點，兩頭都還沒碰到。 哪一邊先到，就做哪一邊的計畫；中間這段價格，不需要硬找理由出手。 【技術面｜1H】 幣安永續合約，1 小時週期，截圖在 22:55 前後。 晚上 6 點到 11 點這段，OKX 最高 2,686.39、最低 2,676.2，就在十塊錢左右的空間裡磨。 截圖那根開 2,680.46、高 2,683.59、低 2,677.53、收 2,681.20，一根小紅 K。 頭上 2,691.47 的綠線還壓著，價格一直沒站上去，整晚都在它底下打轉。 紅色區仍落在 2,740 到 2,785 一帶，2,769.00 標記跟 Weak High 都待在原處。 底下兩層藍色，2,650 到 2🔥"The three major coins go on a blind date, and sitting across the table is my principal"
$BTC: The quiet rich guy with over 84,000, steady indeed, but makes me "wait for fate" every day.
$ETH: The tired artistic guy at $2,670, with a big ecosystem, but the candlestick chart looks a bit bittersweet.
$SOL: The $119 esports chatterbox, constantly talking TPS and memes, but a fake breakout will leave you stunned.
Summary:
BTC is the quiet rich guy, ETH is the tired artistic guy, SOL is the flashy roller coaster.
None of the three guarantee profits, only one thing—heartbeat.
Falling in love with candlestick charts, in the end, it's always their cold indifference, and I write little essays.Today's reasons for being bullish on $ETH should not be limited to the price rising from 2691 to 2750
A nearly $60 increase in one day can improve sentiment but is insufficient to support a long-term judgment. My core basis remains that Ethereum provides open settlement, programmable accounts, and independent verification, while continuously reducing usage costs; at the same time, oracles, bridges, RPC, authorization, and frontend risks indicate that network adoption does not equal user security. If future transactions increase but users can only rely on a few entry points, cross-chain assets frequently lose redemption, and node thresholds continue to rise, then no matter how strong the price is, quality assessments must be downgraded. Conversely, short-term pullbacks do not automatically negate protocol capabilities, as long as security boundaries, exit rights, and real demand continue to improve. $ETH deserves long-term study, not because every rise can be linked to news, but because it can make complex systems more verifiable. Today's price increase is a market result; long-term value still needs to be proven by years of execution.
I will continue to track three types of evidence: whether the mainnet and scaling layers allow more users to exit independently, whether wallets clearly explain signatures and permissions, and whether nodes and data services remain diverse. If activity growth only comes from subsidies, and fee reductions are accompanied by data and entry point concentration, long-term judgments must be penalized; if costs decrease, security boundaries become transparent, and real settlement demand expands simultaneously, short-term price fluctuations are just noise. Being bullish does not mean rejecting counter-evidence, but rather explicitly stating in advance which facts would make me change my judgment. $NIGHT is biased towards the long side, with positions increasing by 28% in one day and moving in the same direction as the price. The new leveraged entries are chasing the price as longs, not pressing it down as shorts. Liquidations are also on the same side: the amount of liquidated shorts exceeds that of longs, indicating this rise is driven by short stop-losses being triggered, with contrarians fueling the market. The fee rate has remained stable for three periods, which is just background information and not a valid reason. The chart shows a bullish moving average alignment, volume-increasing bullish candlesticks, and a breakout above the previous high, consistent with the conclusions drawn from the positions. However, the 15.9% volatility means the new longs have dispersed costs, making higher positions more fragile. Next, let's look at two key levels. The upper level at 0.0531 is the 24-hour high; breaking above it will continue to trigger stop-losses of remaining shorts, pushing the market further up. The lower level at 0.04581 is where new longs have the most concentrated stop-losses; a pullback that does not break this level means the position is stable. The condition for a bearish reversal: breaking below 0.04581 while positions do not decrease indicates new longs are trapped and new shorts are taking over, signaling a directional reversal.Today's $NIGHT almost gave me a taste of what it means to have "fast hands but a slow heart."
I originally just planned to cautiously add a bit to my position, but due to an operational mistake, my position instantly ballooned.
At that moment, I didn't even have time to think:
This isn't adding to my position; this is directly throwing myself into a high volatility zone.
Once altcoin prices fluctuate rapidly, the time you have to correct mistakes is really very short.
I quickly started managing my position, placing orders first, then breaking them into multiple small orders to slowly exit.
The most dramatic part came next—
The price stopped right at a critical point, actually giving me a chance to catch my breath.
Reducing my position bit by bit, I finally got all out.
Then I checked my account:
No loss, actually made a profit.
Just moments ago it was "I'm doomed,"
A few minutes later it turned into "Haha, still alive."
Today's biggest profit isn't how much I made,
But a reminder to myself:
In a high volatility market, the thing you must not lose control over is not the market,
But your own hands.
$NIGHT, today you really cut me some slack.
The position has been fully managed; I won't participate in the market going forward.
I really learned a lesson this time.
#NIGHT #Crypto #Altcoins #TradingDiary我們來看一下比特幣的部分。 我的看法依舊不變，點位那些也全都一樣，今天講第三次，意思還是同一個。 晚上這篇只做一件事：把最新的資料補上來。 【操作建議】 方向：做多（原本的計畫，現在只當參考） 進場區間：83,000～83,500 加碼點：81,000 停損點：78,000 止盈點：86,000 現在的態度：能止盈就一定要跑，不另外喊新的進場 先前衝上高點、又被拉回來的那一段，大家應該都還記得。 所以晚上這點反彈，不是叫大家回頭去追的理由。 手上還有單、價格又給得到止盈的，照計畫走人就好。 這組數字留著給大家對照，新的進場這篇一樣不給。 【技術面｜1H】 這張圖一樣是幣安永續合約、1 小時週期，大約 22:55 截的。 凌晨那一波殺到 84,000 底下，OKX 記到的低點是 83,826.4，之後價格就慢慢墊高。 白天幾乎都卡在 84,4xx～84,6xx，到了晚上 8 點那根才開始往上走，9 點最高碰到 84,947.7（OKX）。 截圖當下 84,813.9，那根 K 開 84,824.6、高 84,824.7、低 84,708.8，收得比開盤低一點，算是小十字。 價格正下方多出The $85,000 sell wall that has capped Bitcoin for nearly three months has finally been cleared. Glassnode data shows that the heavy sell liquidity around $85K has either been absorbed or pulled from the market. Above $87K, the order book looks noticeably thinner, leaving more room for a potential upside move. Shorts are backing off while bullish positioning is building. CryptoQuant’s Accumulation Trend data is also flashing an unusual signal: a sharp compression in the volatility range. Similar The most misleading thing about this wave of $BTC might be — it’s actually still going up.
But I’m getting more and more hesitant to chase longs.
The market currently feels very “comfortable”:
Price is slowly rising, dips aren’t deep, and sentiment is gradually warming up.
But the problem is —
A truly strong trend requires sustained active buying, not just pushing the price up bit by bit by grinding time.
My short position on $ETH is still open, with an average entry price of 2701.99.
There has been some profit retracement, but I haven’t changed my original view just because of a few rebound candles.
Same with $AAVE, the trend is more resilient than expected, and the bears haven’t seen a real acceleration yet.
So here comes the most interesting part:
Did the bears misjudge, and is the market ready to break upwards?
Or is this slow rise continuously attracting long capital, leading to a rapid directional choice at the end?
Adding recent employment data, ETF fund flows, and geopolitical tensions causing market disturbances, short-term volatility could amplify at any time.
The biggest danger now isn’t necessarily a rise or a fall, but mistaking “not falling” for “must rise.”
I will keep watching key levels and capital flows, not stubbornly holding based on guesses.
If the direction really plays out, the market will naturally provide the answer.
High leverage carries extreme risk; position management is more important than predicting direction. The above is just my personal market record and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #ETH #AAVE #CryptoGuys, this strategy of only going long, holding tight, and not adding to positions is on the right track. No shorting, no adding to positions, light positions—these are all good habits for survival. Mi Ge has said it a hundred times: retail investors shorting is going against the trend, and hoping to add to losing positions only leads to zero or countless losses.
But the problem lies in coin selection. You need to pick coins with high trading volume, high popularity, and where retail investors cluster. Sounds reasonable, but when popularity peaks, that's often when the pump-and-dump operators are ready to unload. If you rush in and hold 1x, coins with real value can recover if you hold on. Purely speculative trash coins lose popularity, the pumpers run off, exchanges delist them, and they end up worthless.
You say you only look at sentiment, not news, which can work for short-term trading. But completely ignoring news risks hitting hard traps like delisting, scams, or regulatory crackdowns. You can avoid trading on news, but you must understand what dangers the news hides.
This strategy is essentially venture investing: you invest in 50 projects, most lose money, a few big winners cover the losses. The premise is you must have the ability to screen projects. Without that ability, just chasing hot coins means those 50 investments are 50 total losses. Holding junk coins is like slow suicide. Don’t be fooled by survivors that multiply tens of times; the 99% that didn’t make it are lying on the floor.
Which do you think is harder: coin selection or position management? $BTC $ZEC $CT BTC breaking $86K doesn't mean chase $BTC at any price.
The better question:
Can buyers defend the reclaimed levels?
Breakout → retest → hold → continuation.
That's the structure worth watching.
NFA. DYOR.$BTC $ETH market feels frustrating.
PCE cooled and September NFP came in at just 29K, but U.S. stocks rallied while crypto faded after the initial pump.
BTC rejected $87.2K and sits near $84.6K.
$85.5K–$86K → reclaim for another $87.2K test.
Above $87.2K → $88K+ possible.
Below $83.8K → watch $82K, then $80K.
ETF inflows remain positive but are cooling. ETH looks weaker than BTC, so $83.8K remains the key level to watch.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%$PLTR The Pentagon is establishing an "Autonomous Combat Command," aiming to complete it by October 1, 2027. It will be a four-star joint service command coordinating drones, unmanned vehicles, unmanned boats, military AI, and autonomous decision-making systems. Autonomous combat spending will triple, with a drone/anti-drone budget reaching $74 billion. Warfare is shifting toward "software-defined," with the core being the integration of multi-domain unmanned platforms into a unified kill chain. Palantir's Foundry/Gotham/AIP handles data fusion, intelligence decision-making, and execution closed loops; Maven has become an official U.S. military project, TITAN is its main contractor, and NGC2 also relies on its data grid. The company's U.S. government revenue and contract backlog are strong, but its valuation is very high. In the long term, PLTR is a scarce target in defense AI decision-making layers and deserves focused attention. $SUI Tonight's recovery is more promising than this afternoon. Around dusk, it was near 1.154, and by evening it returned to 1.182, close to last night's 1.185 level. Previously, I was worried about missing the rebound, but now the price has indeed pulled back a bit, so the judgment needs to be adjusted accordingly.
However, don't rush to look further ahead just yet. After approaching last night's level, whether it continues upward or gets pushed back is the next thing to watch. I'll be a bit more optimistic than this afternoon, but it's still not time to chase confidently. If the pullback can hold this gain, it's more meaningful than briefly touching 1.2.
$AAVE This evening it hovered around 180, slightly lower than at dusk but still above noon's 177.6, maintaining about a 17% gain over the past week. I think it's okay to keep observing for now; there's no need to turn bearish just because it retreated a bit. But it needs to push upward again. If it can't recover to around last night's 182 and instead gradually falls back to noon's level, the recovery strength will be discounted.
$BICO The rebound this afternoon had already partially retreated by dusk. It was around 0.0223 in the afternoon and dropped back to about 0.0217 by evening, indicating that the gains after the bounce are hard to hold. Here, I'll be more patient and wait to see if the next rebound can recover the afternoon's level. If rebounds consistently fail to hold, don't just focus on how much it once rose. Control your position first and wait for buying pressure to show more sustained strength.The rotation is starting to speak.
$BTC → setting the direction
$ETH → gaining strength
$SOL → higher beta
$XRP → joining the move
Once $BTC stabilizes, liquidity can start moving toward stronger relative performers.
Don’t chase the candles. Follow the flow.
NFA. DYOR.$SAND just sent a major signal! Upbit lifts the investment warning on SAND, this is the real trigger behind today's explosive surge
Many thought it was just a simple oversold rebound, but now the source is found: South Korea's leading exchange Upbit officially announced the removal of all trading notes and investment warnings for Sandbox SAND.
Once the news broke, it directly ignited buying pressure, and the price responded by surging, reaching a peak increase of +22.01%; the Korean market has always been highly sensitive to metaverse legacy coins, and this announcement is not an ordinary notice but a clear signal of regional liquidity reopening.
Breaking down several key points:
- Previously, the long-standing investment warning meant many Korean institutions, whales, and compliant funds were restricted from participating; lifting the warning means local trading permissions and capital access in Korea are reopened, giving incremental funds a reason to enter.
- It coincides with a low-level rotation window: the long-dormant GameFi-metaverse sector already had funds quietly positioning, and this announcement directly became an emotional catalyst, combined with a significant volume increase leading to a large bullish candle.
- A very realistic downside must be stated clearly: the positive news is already out in the open, and part of the price increase has been realized; the market can easily follow the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" script, with years of trapped positions piled up above. The probability of wide-range volatility and intense shakeouts ahead is very high, so this is not the time to blindly chase in. 今日被涮 $NIGHT +1.52% | 吐槽定调 偏多 $NIGHT 今天被请上吐槽席，定调偏多回调做。现价 $0.0498，推荐回调到 $0.0460 挂多，止损 $0.0420，目标先看 $0.0531 的 7 日高点，再看 $0.0580，5 倍杠杆。理由一句话：7 连阳从 $0.025 拉到 $0.053 价格翻倍，趋势在多头手里，可 $0.0531 两天冲了两次都没站稳，庄家在午夜场派发的嫌疑太大，追多容易被插针，回调到支撑接更划算。Cardano 老大 Hoskinson 自掏 2 亿美元给这条隐私链撑腰，项目方有钱有背景，可韭菜最怕的就是有钱的项目方——人家派发起货来比穷项目利索多了。5 倍下扛到止损也就亏一成保证金，比起 8 倍追高的哥们儿踏实多了。 $NIGHT 这 7 天的 K 线是一部午夜档连续剧，专挑半夜放量给你看。9/26 开盘 $0.0263 最低 $0.0252，全天就在一分钱里晃，量才 182 万 U，没人拿它当回事；9/27 涨 3.96% 收 $0.0278，量也才 302 万，依然没人在意；9/28 突然涨 13.96% 收 $0.0Approaching 11:30, I shifted my focus to privacy coins in the evening session—$ZEC spot is around 1301, down about five points from the 24-hour open at 1372, with a daily high touching 1379 and a daily low dipping to 1271, and a trading volume of roughly 45 million U.
The contract open interest is about 160 million dollars nominally, with a slightly positive fee rate of about 0.01%. This week, the Grayscale ZCSH fund reportedly saw a net outflow of about 90 million dollars, compounded by privacy regulation noise, the market sentiment is relatively tight. The big coin $BTC is hovering around 84,800, and $ETH is about 2681. In the short term, watch the 1270 area carefully—don’t break it lightly, and don’t rush to bottom fish.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #ZEC #Zcash #PrivacyCoin #ETFOutflow #USSeptemberNonfarmOnlyIncreasedBy29KUnemploymentRateRoseTo4.2% #BTCETHSpotETFsSimultaneousOutflowFundsCoolingDown #USIRelationsRemainTenseG7ToReleaseUpTo100MillionBarrelsReserve #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; the market has risks, please be cautious when entering #USSeptemberNonfarmOnlyIncreasedBy29KUnemploymentRateRoseTo4.2% #BTCETHSpotETFsSimultaneousOutflowFundsCoolingDown #USIRelationsRemainTenseG7ToReleaseUpTo100MillionBarrelsReserve markets.This rally came very suddenly, but what really matters now is not how high SAND can rise, but whether this breakout can truly hold its ground. This rally was driven by factors such as some Korean exchanges lifting previous trading warnings, while volume and open interest also increased significantly, rapidly intensifying market attention. 📌 Current key focus: $0.068–$0.080 ➤ If SAND breaks through with increased volume and stabilizes above $0.080, the market may continue to test around $0.10. ➤ If it only surges quickly and then falls back to the $0.068–$0.080 range, this rally could turn into a false breakout and short-term volatility may intensify. So now's not rushing to chase highs; first see if the price can hold the breakout area. True strength is not just about pulling a large bullish candle, but about holding the price after a breakout. 👀 $SAND $BTC $ETH #SAND #TheSandbox #Crypto #Altcoins #Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoMarket #DailyOrbit"In the same market cycle, why do some people double their money while others lose everything?"
When the market is up, everyone makes money; when the market goes down, that's when you find out who's swimming naked. The difference between those who profit and those who lose is never luck, but two completely different information habits.
Those who make money focus on "slow information": logic, cycles, fundamentals. Decisions form slowly and execution is disciplined—buying because the logic holds; selling because the logic has changed, regardless of price.
Those who lose money focus on "fast information": price, emotions, hype calls. Chasing the rally is driven by emotion, holding onto positions is due to luck, cutting losses is forced by panic; no action along the chain is well thought out.
So don't rush to figure out "how to break even"—breaking even is a result, not a method. First, change three things: switch your information source from group chats to official channels; reduce the number of times you check prices from a dozen times a day to two or three; replace "what others think" with "whether the logic has changed."
One more thing for those who make money: holding on is harder than making money. I've seen too many people make money based on logic, only to lose it all due to overconfidence. The market rewards those with logic and punishes those who don't respect it; always leave room in your position.
The crypto world has never been a game of "picking the right asset," but a game of "managing yourself." The former determines how much you earn, the latter determines how much you keep.
Investment involves risks; decisions should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute investment advice.I finally understand why every time I feel like "it's about time to stop," the market teaches me a lesson...
A few days ago, when $ZEC dropped to around 1400, I was thinking:
"It has fallen so much, it should be time for a rebound, right?"
So I decisively entered the market.
But as soon as I got in, the market showed me what it means to "catch a falling knife"...
1400 → 1316.
During this drop, my position took a big hit.
The most painful part isn’t the loss,
but that just when you think you’ve finally caught an opportunity, the market immediately tells you:
you see support, but others might see liquidity.
Looking back at the capital flow, the enthusiasm for BTC and ETH spot ETFs has also cooled down, and macro data has added uncertainty to the market.
So now, what I fear most isn’t the drop,
but the illusion the market creates that "it has already fallen a lot, it won’t fall further."
Is $ZEC really brewing a rebound,
or is 1316 just a pit stop before the next round of decline?
This time, I’ve decided not to bet on the market’s mood.
I’d rather miss the rebound than become the last one holding the bag trying to "catch the bottom."
#ZEC #BTC #ETH #Cryptocurrency #CryptoZEC retreated from around $1412 to $1318, and my short position at $1385.52 also entered a clear floating profit. From a technical structure perspective, EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 are still trending downward, and the short-term trend remains weak for now. Meanwhile, $BTC is weak, macro uncertainty is increasing, and market volatility may further amplify. However, the most important thing now is not to continue chasing short sellers, but to protect the profits already taken. The faster the market falls, the less risk control should be relaxed just because short-term tailwinds are ahead. Key positions, trading volume, and BTC's subsequent performance are all worth watching. Trading opportunities are important, but position management always comes first $ZEC $BTC #ZEC #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagementIt's not that complicated
The market is currently in a rather awkward phase, with weekend fluctuations controlled around 300 points, which is more uncomfortable than drawing an ECG. At this time, it's essential to maintain patience, but trading crypto is all about trading expectations. After the non-farm payroll data was released on Friday, the market fluctuations did not meet the expected upward movement ⬆️. Overseas stock markets, on the other hand, hit new highs, with most funds flowing into US stocks and US bonds. There are still many risks outside, and the Middle East issue remains unresolved. Personally, I lean towards a greater opportunity to move south and suggest trying a short position at the 85500 level.$NEAR's positive news is genuinely positive, but unfortunately, the timing is off. NEAR Intents' fee revenue in September hit a new high for the year.
Hyperliquid's perpetual contracts have privacy mode enabled by default, and on the first day of launch, confidential balances exceeded $70 million.
Is this data solid? Extremely solid. Privacy combined with a high-performance public chain, along with Hyperliquid's hype, makes the fundamentals practically a perfect narrative.
But glancing at the market, it’s disheartening. From 1.8 it surged all the way to 5.58, tripling in value.
Now the daily MACD shows a high-level death cross, STICK momentum has turned green, and the price has fallen back to 4.63.
This is a typical phase where the main players use good news to sell off and distribute at high levels.
Honestly, at this point, who wouldn’t be confused? If you chase the highs, the 5.0 to 5.5 range above is full of trapped positions, ready to be smashed at any time.
If you try to bottom-fish, it just started the first wave of decline from the peak, and the profit-taking below is still very abundant. It really is a "pity it’s not the bottom."
This round of good news came at a high of 4.6, which is just a bull trap.
The real bottom will only appear after these profit-taking positions are trampled and cleared out, and the price falls to a point where no one dares to call a bottom.
I absolutely won’t FOMO now; I’m sitting on the sidelines watching the show.
Good projects need good prices too. If I miss this wave, so be it—consider it experience gained.
I’ll wait for it to drop thoroughly or for the overall market to truly stabilize before I come back to pick up the bloodied chips.
Going in now is just throwing money to the manipulative whales; I refuse to be cannon fodder!These past two days, I finally experienced the “speed” of altcoin contracts again.
During the $PENGU wave the day before yesterday, I directly followed the short direction and took a position. After getting the direction right, the whole process was indeed comfortable, felt like I could even add a chicken leg to dinner.
On the other hand, $PONS gave me a harsh lesson.
A while ago, I heavily held it in spot, enduring for a long time. I kept averaging down the cost, and when the rebound finally returned near the cost, I directly exited.
No profit, no loss.
But shortly after, this guy plunged today...
All I can say is: some coins really shouldn’t be emotionally attached to.
But I still want to try once more.
$PONS’s buyback and automated burn mechanism have been implemented, which at least makes me willing to reobserve its rebound capability.
So today I tried a small 5x long position, with risk boundaries set in advance, not gambling on unlimited moves.
My idea is simple:
If the rebound gives an opportunity, take a bite and leave;
If it doesn’t move out, admit the mistake and exit.
As for the $XDP I bought yesterday, I’ve already sold it.
Not that it’s bad, but the volatility is just too low—the worst thing in contracts is not losing, but the market not moving for a long time.
Lately, I increasingly feel:
Altcoins can be studied, but don’t get emotional.
If you see the right direction, execute;
If you see the wrong direction, retreat.
We come to the market to trade, not to “support” any project for the long term.Many people go through this cycle: the price rises and I didn't buy, so I switch to the next one; just after switching, the original one takes off again; the newly bought one stagnates or falls, breaking my mindset, so I switch again. It looks like constantly "chasing hot spots," but in reality, it's continuously raising your own cost and exhausting your patience. The tens of times price surge is essentially the result of "a few people holding on," not the product of "many people frequently trading."
When the coin price hits a historical high, the community cheers, but when you look back at your account, you find you haven't really earned much, or are even losing. This is not just your problem.
The market truly rewards those who are prepared before the rise and who are not cleared out during the fluctuations, not those who only see the price going up.Altcoin markets can rise by dozens of times, but most people still lose money. The reason is not the market itself, but how people participate in these multiples.
First, you profit from "the segment you hold," not "the segment it has passed through."
A single candlestick may rise 50 times from bottom to peak, but you usually don't buy at 1x; you dare to enter at 5x, 10x, or 20x. It can still rise afterward, but once it retraces 30% or 40%, your cost becomes a resistance level. The main players build positions where "no one dares to buy," while you take over where "everyone confirms the trend." Essentially, you and the main players are not participating in the same segment of the market.
Second, you can't withstand retracements, but the main players use retracements to shake out chips.
A true main upward wave almost always comes with intense volatility. It may rise 3 times then retrace 40%, then rise 5 times and shake out half again; this is normal in altcoins. But most people start doubting themselves once their unrealized profits shrink: Is it the top? Is it going to zero? So they sell during the shakeout and buy during acceleration, repeatedly. The trend hasn't ended, but their positions are gone first.
Third, you hold an "emotional position," not a "cycle position."
An emotional position is characterized by wanting to add when it rises and wanting to run when it falls; watching the market every day, every bearish candle feels like an alarm. A cycle position is the opposite: it is built when your emotions are lowest and the market is cold; retracements are just part of the process, not a threat. Most people lose not because they chose the wrong direction, but because they use a short-term mindset for mid- to long-term trading.
Fourth, frequent switching is more fatal than missing out. SOL过去24小时回落约 1.9%，从117.05美元附近反弹后，价格逐渐陷入横盘，目前主要运行在 119.17–119.57美元 的狭窄区间内，短线波动明显收缩。 更值得注意的是，当前成交量不足平时的一半，同时未平仓合约较昨日下降约 4.7%。这意味着市场新增资金并不明显，更多还是存量仓位在等待方向。 上方仍然存在一定卖压，但多头没有明显放量突破，空头也暂时没有形成持续下杀。市场就像被“按下暂停键”，真正的方向还没有出现。 🔥 短线重点关注两个位置： ➤ 向上突破 119.57：观察是否出现放量延续 ➤ 向下跌破 119.17：留意是否进一步测试117美元附近 与此同时，美国9月非农新增就业仅 2.9万人，失业率升至 4.2%；BTC、ETH现货ETF资金也出现分化，市场风险偏好仍需观察。 因此目前没必要急着猜方向。 SOL越是压缩，后面的突破就越值得关注。先等区间真正被打破，再观察成交量和资金是否同步跟上。 $SOL $BTC $ETH #Solana #SOL #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #加密市场 #非农 #现货ETF #资金流向Finally finished a busy day, took a shower and lay in bed intending to sleep early, but my fingers slipped and I checked the market again. After the last glance, my heart felt colder than an unheated blanket——money, the more you look, the less you have.
$BTC
Down 1.6% in 24 hours, currently at 84,586. It surged to 87,219 during the session but was pushed back down, wiping out all the gains. The long positions hanging above lose a bit every time I look, and my heart sinks along with the K-line.
$ETH
Down 1.76% in 24 hours, currently at 2,682. It stubbornly can't hold above 2,700, with support barely shifting to around 2,670. The long positions in hand feel like they've been immobilized, slowly bleeding downward.
$ZEC
Down 4.87% in 24 hours, currently around 1,333. The ETF saw $93.6 million outflow in a week, with $21.83 million liquidated in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions. It has dropped 21% from the high of 1,690, and those who chased the highs are all buried. I didn't chase, but just watching it sends chills down my spine.
Summary: One last look before sleep, lose a bit; another look, heart turns cold. Numb from the drops, stuck in losses, scalp tingling. Personal vent, not investment advice. Brothers, I really can't hold on anymore
Yesterday $BTC Bitcoin suddenly surged over 2000 points, and my short position was almost liquidated. My hands were shaking at that moment, and I was trembling, feeling like I was just a little away from liquidation.
I put my entire year's salary into this, and last night I really almost couldn't hold on.
Fortunately, Bitcoin suddenly plummeted afterward, giving me a second chance.
But I still can't be happy yet; the unrealized loss remains, and the danger is not over.
Currently, this BTC short position:
-150.36%
Opening average price: 83,546.6
Latest transaction price: 84,803.0
Honestly, this wave really broke my mentality.
Now I have only one wish:
Big Bitcoin, please drop below 80,000!
Let this short seller get some profit, give me a way out 🥹
Brothers, do you think BTC can drop below 80,000 this time?
Let's chat in the comments, are you bullish or bearish now?
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在