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Any of our trading decisions must include a time limit to be considered valid.
Recently, I came across a viewpoint expressing that: most likely in the next Bitcoin bull cycle, due to MicroStrategy's strategic shift, $MSTR will no longer soar spirally with both feet stepping in sync. The conclusion is that buying $MSTR is no longer viable, and one should honestly buy Bitcoin; no one can confirm or refute this viewpoint until it plays out over the next few years, but I raise two points:
1. Look at the volatility of the coin and stock themselves. Bitcoin's current price doubling means 130,000, breaking the previous high, while MSTR's current price doubling means 200.
2. Consider time and inertia. Maybe the above viewpoint will eventually be confirmed, but perhaps $MSTR will only be proven unable to soar spirally in the mid to late stages of the next Bitcoin cycle;
However, by then Bitcoin might already be at 130,000, and MSTR might have returned to its previous high. Bitcoin could continue to rise, but MSTR might not follow; just like in early 2023, we still speculated on L2, modular solutions, and other things that were ultimately proven unviable.Analysis of the Impact of CPI Data Release on BTC Market🔥
Core underlying logic:
CPI determines the Fed's rate cut expectations → drives US Treasury yields and the US dollar index → changes overall market liquidity and risk appetite. BTC is currently highly correlated with US stock risk assets, so CPI data will directly rewrite the short-term direction of the market.
Key timing: US July CPI, released on August 13 at 20:30 Beijing time, is the biggest catalyst in the current market.
Three data scenarios and their impact on BTC
Scenario ①: CPI < market expectations (inflation cooling, bullish)
- Macro changes: rate cut expectations rise, US Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens, risk asset preference increases.
- BTC chart: priority challenge at resistance level 66000; if volume breaks through, it opens upward space.
- Spillover effect: altcoins have much greater elasticity than BTC; AA, AI-Agent hot small-cap coins will have stronger gains.
- Hidden risk: bullish news often leads to "buy the rumor, sell the fact"; after a surge, a quick pullback may occur, so avoid blindly chasing the rally.
Scenario ②: CPI > market expectations (inflation rebound, bearish)
- Macro changes: rate cut expectations significantly delayed, US Treasury yields rebound, dollar strengthens, market tightens liquidity expectations.
- BTC chart: directly tests key watershed support at 64500; once effectively broken, the rebound driven by non-farm payrolls ends, retesting the 63800-64000 range.
- Spillover effect: broad market decline, altcoins fall much more than BTC, concentrated liquidations in futures market, spike and slippage risks increase sharply.
Scenario ③: CPI fully meets market expectations (neutral)
- Macro: no change to the overall rate cut direction, market sentiment fluctuates limitedly, returns to original technical trend after a few minutes of pulse.
- BTC chart: continues to oscillate in the 64500-65200 range.
- Capital behavior: funds shift focus from macro data to ETF fund flows, on-chain data, sector narratives; market shows sector differentiation and rotating hotspots.
Two additional key points easily overlooked
1. Focus on core CPI, not just overall CPI
If overall CPI looks good but core CPI exceeds expectations, the market still interprets inflation as stubborn, and the market will move in the opposite direction. Many people misjudge the market by only looking at surface data.
2. Short-term illusions after data release
Volatility is extremely intense in the first 15-30 minutes after data release, often showing "false breakouts and false dumps." Do not chase the first wave of the market; the effective signal is whether the close can hold key price levels.
After CPI release, closely watch two core signals
1. Whether BTC support at 64500 and resistance at 66000 can be effectively broken or held; this is the boundary between bulls and bears.
2. ETH/BTC exchange rate: if the rate strengthens, funds flow out to altcoins; if the rate weakens, altcoin market cools down. (Personal analysis only) $BTC
Steady progress everyone Wishing you great wealth Getting better and better Early this morning, I kept an eye on the market, and $BTC volatility suddenly picked up, hovering back and forth around the 65000 level. Positions were increased by 2.66%, and the ETF also saw a net inflow of over 100 million USD on Friday.
Both mainstream and altcoins are actually stirring beneath the surface. The altcoin season indicator on CoinMarketCap has climbed to 54, and trading volume on South Korea's Upbit has surged dramatically these past two days. It feels like funds are pulling out from Kospi and moving into the crypto space.
The Friday non-farm payroll data of -23,000 was really wild, directly pushing down rate hike expectations and bringing back rate cut trades. Liquidity has taken a short-term breather.
Now it depends on whether this momentum can ride the macro tailwind to extend the range further.
That said, there have been too many fake breakouts in this space. When it surges, don’t sleep too hard on leverage.Why is the US stock market hitting new highs while ordinary stocks don't seem to rise?
Recently, many people have had this question.
Why does the index keep rising, but the stocks they hold don't show obvious gains?
I think the reason lies in the very high concentration of the current US stock market.
This round of gains is mainly driven by a few large tech companies.
For example, giants like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon contribute very significantly to the index.
These companies share common characteristics:
Large market scale.
Strong profitability.
High relevance to AI.
So a large amount of capital flows in concentratedly.
But this also leads to a problem.
Index gains do not mean all stocks are rising.
Many traditional industry stocks have not performed in sync.
This indicates the market is not a broad bull market now, but a structural trend.
Capital is seeking the positions with the highest certainty.
I believe opportunities in the US stock market still exist in the future.
But the investment logic has changed.
Previously, one might buy the entire market.
Now, it is more necessary to find companies that truly benefit from industry trends.
Market rises are not scary.
What’s scary is not knowing why the capital is rising. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ 我对$TRIA 这个币还是蛮关心的，因为它下跌的时候时间很凑巧。 我记得，$LAB 是在七月初暴跌的，而$TRIA 几天后也暴跌了。 如果仅仅只是暴跌的时间凑巧，我可能还没有那么关注$TRIA 。 但是，$TRIA 在暴跌之后居然进入了长时间的横盘，这就让我有点敏感了。 我记得，在$RAVE 暴跌之后，$LAB 也是在进入一段时间的横盘之后暴涨的。 我个人觉得，$TRIA 有成为妖币的潜质啊！ —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 可以发现，它的持仓量在中间是有一个突然的暴涨的，对应的合约多功比是上涨的。 但是，合约持仓量上涨之后，很快又跌了下去，它的合约多空比对应的也是下跌的。 我个人认为，可能确实也有资金想要去抄底，但是忍受不了这种长期横盘的煎熬，就离场了。 这说明，现在盘面上外来的资金还是比较少的。 我们再看一下它的走势。 可以发现，它上下震荡的幅度是越来越小的，这种情况一般意味着横盘的结果将要出来了。 —————————————————— 现在这种情况，盘面应该是洗的非常干净了。 七月初一波大暴跌，可以说把多数的高杠杆多头都清理掉了。 之后一个月漫长的TRC20-USDT issuance surpassed 91.2 billion, officially surpassing Ethereum to become the network with the largest USDT issuance in the world. This year, TRON alone issued 10 billion new USDT, with 75.47 million holding accounts, over 3.5 billion transfers, and total cross-chain transactions reaching 15 billion. Combined with Moonpay integration, users don't need to hold TRX to pay fees. This series of data is straightforward: stablecoins are the biggest lifeblood for public chains, and TRX has already gained the most important trump card in a bull market. Many people used to look down on TRON, always thinking the ecosystem was just a bunch of farmers, lacking high-end DeFi and lacking Ethereum's technology. But stablecoin data doesn't lie. A large amount of USDT reaching TRC20 isn't just about promotion—it's real users voting with their feet. Fast transfers and extremely low fees, fully supported by all major exchanges. Whether it's retail deposits and withdrawals, cross-platform brick transfers, or capital transfers, TRC20 has become the core channel for capital flow within the industry. The scale of stablecoins represents the real amount of capital accumulated on-chain. The more stablecoins there are on a chain, the larger the pool of funds available for mobilization on the chain. Funds won't vanish into thin air. A huge amount of USDT will remain on the TRON network and will eventually find an outlet. It will flow on-chain DEXs, Touchou, and various protocols, directly driving on-chain fees and gas consumption, ultimately benefiting TRX burn and deflation. Moonpay's integration this time should not be underestimated either. You can pay fees without TRX, greatly lowering the barrier for new users.0.66 $KAITO, is the negative fee rate a trap or a bargain?
The easiest pitfall right now is seeing a 2900% annualized long funding rate and thinking "here's a chance to make money lying down," rushing in to go long. But an extreme negative fee rate precisely indicates that shorts are subsidizing longs, yet the price keeps falling. What does this mean? Existing longs would rather pay high daily funding fees than give up, but the whales are already cutting losses and exiting.
News:
Big players opened positions at an average price of $1.055, today sold off 2.08 million tokens at $0.669, losing $800,000 and leaving. This is not new shorts dumping the market, but the last longs giving up. Negative fee rate is a result, not a reversal signal.
Objective view: I tend to remain bearish. Although the negative fee rate is extreme, as long as there is no volume breakout candle closing above 0.674, any rebound is a bull trap. The invalidation point is an hourly close above 0.696 with volume—that would indicate shorts loosening their grip.
Trading strategy:
Conservative: wait for a rebound near 0.674 to short; aggressive: short near the current price.
Can this negative fee rate attract new longs to enter and catch the falling knife? #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 First, let's talk about the most important macro time bomb this week.
Inflation data will be released this Wednesday and Thursday. There is a crucial background to pay attention to — crude oil prices surged about 37% in July. Oil prices are a core driver of inflation, and such a magnitude of increase will very likely directly push inflation readings higher. If the data exceeds expectations, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again will sharply increase, putting pressure on Bitcoin and risk assets. This is the biggest macro black swan window this week.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently showing an extremely rare low volatility signal.
Volatility has dropped to the lowest point in a year and a half, Bollinger Bands are tightly constricted, and trading volume is extremely exhausted. However, at the same time, open interest continues to climb, and funding rates remain relatively high during this bear market bottom phase — this indicates the market bottom has not yet been fully established, and the momentum to flush out long leverage downward has not been completely released.
According to the 90-day liquidation heatmap, a massive amount of long liquidation orders are stacked between 50,000 and 47,000 below.
These positions are right there; the main players will very likely first push down to trigger stop losses and clear this liquidity, snatching chips from panicked holders, and only then will a parabolic violent rally begin. This is the classic harvesting logic before every major Bitcoin bottom, without exception.
My core accumulation range remains below and unchanged — as long as the market dares to crash down, I will double down there.
Finally, let's talk about a signal seriously underestimated by the market — Ethereum is creating a historic divergence.
Ethereum’s price is falling, but the total number of transactions on the network is wildly surging against the trend. This is a phenomenon never seen before in history — price is dropping, but actual network usage is exploding. Such an extreme divergence between fundamentals and price historically always appears during phases when major funds quietly start accumulating again.
This week’s PPI and CPI data are the biggest short-term variables; stay alert before the data is released. The heaviest bullets are reserved below; do not chase the rally, wait for the dump. Can Nvidia continue to rise? What is the market really worried about?
Recently, Nvidia remains the focus of attention in the US stock market.
Many people see the stock price continuously rising and have a question:
Is it too late to jump in now?
I think this question cannot be answered by looking only at the price increase.
The core reason for Nvidia's past rise is not because the market likes to speculate, but because it has captured the core demand of the AI industry boom.
Currently, companies worldwide are increasing their AI investments, and these investments first require computing power support.
This is also why Nvidia's data center business continues to grow.
However, the market's expectations for Nvidia have now changed.
Previously, investors focused on:
Is there an opportunity for AI?
Now investors focus on:
How long can AI growth continue?
Can future profits still exceed expectations?
This is the characteristic of large-cap companies.
The stronger they are, the higher the market expectations.
Any information below expectations can cause stock price fluctuations.
I believe Nvidia still has industrial advantages in the future.
But the logic for the rise has shifted from "discovering opportunities" to "validating growth."
Capital will not continue to buy just because of the two letters AI.
It needs to see orders, revenue, and profits continuously realized.
So what really determines Nvidia's potential now is not market hype, but the real demand of the AI industry in the coming years. Why does the US stock market get stronger as it rises? What exactly is the capital trading?
Recently, the US stock market has clearly outperformed many people's expectations.
Many investors were previously worried about high valuations and economic slowdown, but the market did not experience a significant correction; instead, it continued to strengthen, led by tech stocks.
I believe the core reason for the current rise in the US stock market is not simply driven by sentiment, but that capital has reconfirmed the growth logic.
Over the past year, AI has become the most important theme in the US stock market.
But now the market is no longer just speculating on the AI concept; it is looking for companies that can truly generate profits.
Take Nvidia as an example: the company's latest quarterly revenue reached $68.1 billion, with data center business accounting for $62.3 billion, indicating that AI demand is gradually shifting from concept to actual commercial growth.
This is also why capital is willing to continue allocating to tech stocks.
The market is not buying a story, but an industrial chain that has already begun to realize value.
Besides AI, expectations of interest rate cuts are also an important factor driving the US stock market.
When the market believes that future interest rates may decline, valuations of growth companies are supported because the cost of capital decreases and future earnings value is reassessed.
However, I think the biggest risk now is also obvious.
The faster the rise, the higher the market expectations.
If AI investment slows down in the future or corporate earnings fall short of expectations, the US stock market may experience significant volatility.
So when looking at the US stock market now, you can't just look at index fluctuations.
What really needs attention is:
Whether capital continues to flow to leading tech companies. Why is the US stock market becoming more volatile while the crypto market is getting calmer?
Recently, many people have noticed a strange phenomenon.
In the past, everyone thought the crypto market was the most volatile, but now the daily price swings of US tech stocks are sometimes no smaller than those in the crypto market.
Why has this change occurred?
I believe the main reason is the difference in capital structure.
Currently, the US stock market, especially the tech sector, has highly concentrated capital.
A large amount of institutional funds are concentrated in a few leading companies, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, etc.
When the market is optimistic about AI, a large amount of capital flows in quickly.
But when there is some concern in the market, such as interest rate changes, valuation pressure, or declining profit expectations, the capital also adjusts rapidly.
So naturally, volatility expands.
Meanwhile, after multiple cycles, the crypto market's structure is changing.
With the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs, more and more long-term capital is entering.
This capital does not chase daily price fluctuations but operates according to asset allocation logic.
At the same time, many retail investors have exited after several bear markets, so market sentiment is not as frenzied as before.
Therefore, the decline in BTC volatility is actually a sign of market maturity.
Of course, low volatility also means a lack of short-term explosive momentum.
Real big moves often require new capital inflows and new narratives.
Currently, the US stock market is trading on AI growth.
The crypto market is waiting for the next round of capital consensus.Why BTC Can't Outperform AI Stocks: What Is the Market Really Focusing On?
Recently, many investors have had a feeling.
Although Bitcoin's price remains strong, its rate of increase is clearly slower than that of US AI stocks.
Especially some companies in the AI industry chain, whose short-term gains have even surpassed many crypto assets.
I believe the reason is not that BTC has lost value, but that the market is at a different stage.
The biggest story in the US stock market right now is the realization of the AI industry.
In recent years, the market has been debating whether artificial intelligence has commercial value, and now the funds have seen the answer.
NVIDIA's data center business growth is the most obvious proof.
AI model training requires massive computing power, and behind that computing power are servers, storage, and power support.
So funds are starting to spread from core chips to the entire industry chain.
In contrast, Bitcoin's biggest advantage currently is its asset attribute.
It has global recognition and ETF fund support.
But the problem is, it lacks short-term validation indicators like corporate profits.
The market cannot judge future growth through financial reports, only through capital cycles and market sentiment.
Therefore, BTC's rise requires a stronger liquidity environment.
When interest rates fall, funding costs decrease, and investors are willing to take on more risk, the crypto space usually gains greater elasticity.
The current market is not about who is better, but who better fits the current capital preference.
AI stocks meet institutions' demand for certainty.
BTC is waiting for the next round of increased risk appetite. 美国7月非农意外减少2.3万人，今年2月以来首次负增长。5月、6月数据合计遭大幅下修，就业市场的韧性正在减弱，使美联储在通胀与就业之间的取舍更加复杂。近期官员加息分歧扩大，货币政策的风险溢价仍将反映在美债收益率与美元资产估值中。 与此同时，日本央行7月会议意见摘要释放出更强烈的加息信号，部分委员认为应采取更灵活、甚至更积极的政策正常化方式。日元疲弱促使日美两国罕见进行联合汇市干预，若日本后续加息预期进一步升温，日元套利资金成本上升也可能加剧高估值、高杠杆资产的波动。 美债处于另一个关键位置。贝森特近期支持日元干预、讨论FIMA流动性工具并调整长期国债发行表述，本质上指向降低长端美债市场的压力。但财政部能够提供的支撑有限，真正决定长端收益率的仍是通胀路径、美联储政策以及市场对美国财政可持续性的定价。 产业端呈现截然不同的景象。SpaceX、AI服务器、HBM与NAND需求仍处于高景气，企业资本支出持续扩张，但闪迪、西部数据财报后股价大跌，反映问题已不再只是“业绩是否增长”，而是企业能否持续超越已经极高的市场预期。AI产业的核心矛盾正持续转向资本效率与估值承受能力。 因此，本周市场真正需要Should you average down on a coin like $BICO that has dropped 1000 times?
These days, many people in the community are discussing whether to average down and lower the cost basis when their coins have dropped by thousands of times.
Coins like $CORE, $LAB, $XCH, $CFX are frequently asked about in the group.
To be honest, this can't be generalized; it depends on the economic model.
First type: Inflation model
The coin price has dropped 1000 times, but the total supply has also increased 1000 times, so the total market cap hasn't shrunk much.
This is a typical "buy the dip more and more" trap—you think you're bottom-fishing, but you're actually taking over a continuously diluted pool.
Never average down in this case.
Second type: Fixed total supply
The total supply is locked; the price has dropped 1000 times, but the project team is still actively working.
In this case, you can consider averaging down a bit since you can significantly lower your cost basis.
In short, first check if the total supply has changed, then see if the team is still active.
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ "Speak only when you have something to say; don't speak just for the sake of it"
🏗 Current Market Situation
The wall cracks have not yet been fully repaired, but funds have already massively flowed back in. Last week, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $865 million in a single week, hitting a fifteen-week peak; BlackRock's IBIT is the core main force, absorbing $694 million alone. ETH spot ETFs have had net inflows for five consecutive weeks, slowly supporting the market.
❌ Retail Investor Misconceptions
Most people see huge capital inflows and immediately conclude the market will surge unilaterally.
In reality, capital inflows are just stocking up funds, equivalent to materials arriving at a construction site, which does not mean the fundamentals have passed inspection. No matter how beautiful a project's whitepaper vision is, the long-term market height is always determined by the macro foundation. If the foundation is weak, no amount of capital can sustain a continuous rise.
📌 Three Core Fundamentals (Market Foundation Indicators)
1️⃣ Federal Reserve rate cut expectations: controlling overall market funding costs, the most fundamental support
2️⃣ Market panic sentiment: rising risk aversion puts direct pressure on risk assets like crypto
3️⃣ Spot trading volume: sufficient buy-side transactions are needed to solidify an upward structure
This round of capital inflow only fills previous outflow gaps and does not represent new incremental reinforcement of the market.
🛡 Hedging Asset · XAUT Gold Token
Like a high-rise building's damping and shock absorption device, it fluctuates mildly on normal days but absorbs risk-averse funds to hedge risks during market crashes or severe volatility. No matter how many tricks the market shows, ultimately it depends on whether market volatility is controllable.
💡 Summary
No matter how lively the market looks, a bright market does not mean solid fundamentals. Without a stable main foundation, short-term rebounds are just a flash in the pan.
Even if capital floods in massively, without meeting macro conditions, a long-term bull market is still very difficult to start. US stocks in AI are skyrocketing, but why are BTC and ETH lagging behind?
Recently, many people have noticed a problem.
NVIDIA, SanDisk, Micron, and other AI-related stocks are performing strongly, but BTC and ETH have not experienced the same level of increase.
I believe the reason is not that the crypto space has lost its appeal, but that the order of capital allocation has changed.
The biggest theme in the market right now is AI.
Capital sees increased corporate investment, growing orders, and rising profits.
In contrast, the crypto space currently lacks a new story that can form a global consensus among investors.
Although BTC has ETF support, it is more like a long-term asset allocation.
ETH has a strong ecosystem, but the market is still waiting for new growth catalysts.
Therefore, in the short term, capital prefers to buy assets that have already proven themselves. Wednesday's CPI, to be honest, this data is quite critical.
The current expectation is that the overall CPI year-on-year will drop from 3.5% to 3.4%, and the core CPI from 2.6% to 2.5%. The power of capital is indeed strong, easily pushing it down.
But the question is, how much of a drop is enough?
This is the real dilemma for the market. Whether to raise interest rates in September or not, the non-farm payrolls have already shifted expectations towards a rate cut, but CPI is the true judge.
If CPI continues to fall, the probability of a rate hike will decrease further, and risk assets might rally again. If CPI rebounds, the rate cut expectations will reverse, and the market will have to reprice.
$BTC is still hovering around 65000 without moving. ETFs have been seeing net inflows, BlackRock put in nearly 700 million this week, money keeps coming in. But the price just can't push higher; 65000 feels like a wall. If CPI cools down, there might be a catch-up rally, possibly breaking through 66000 or even 67000. If CPI rebounds, it might retest 64000 or even lower.
$BICO has really been giving me a hard time lately. The two short positions I opened a few days ago both got squeezed out. I opened one at 0.0314, it got pushed up. I wasn't convinced and added another, but it still got pushed up. However, last night I finally got a correct bet, and this wave basically recovered the losses, but honestly, closing the position was a bit early, I didn't maximize the gains.
$BEAT fell from 3.4 back to 2.6, down nearly 30%. For coins that rise fast and fall fast, once the volume shrinks, it's hard to chase. I suggest just watching from the sidelines.
SanDisk is still stuck at 1200, not moving up. The storage sector's expectation correction is ongoing. Is storage really hopeless? All the funds have fled now. Can't anyone save SanDisk?
Before the CPI data comes out, no major position adjustments. Instead of betting on direction, better to wait for the direction. We'll decide after the data lands.
Now it's just a waiting game. Wednesday is the moment to decide the outcome.
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Whether this round of SOL has heated up can be answered with speed; Whether the market is biased or not depends on another set of figures. OKX Onchain OS recorded 19 mentions of SOL in one hour at 17:00 on August 10, including 19 mentions of X and 0 news articles; The total number of 24-hour sessions was 447. The latest hour is 1.02 times the hourly average for the long window, which is nearly the 24-hour average and can be classified as 'roughly close to the long window average.' This speed describes new discussions and is not necessarily related to market fluctuations. The tone of the text is 21% bullish, 21% bearish, and about 58% neutral, currently indicating a 'close bullish or bearish approach.' 52% bullish and 9% bearish within 24 hours; If there is a gap between the two windows, it should first be understood as a change in the discussion structure, rather than directly deriving a price target. I will draw these two lines separately. If the tone is too heavy but the speed of mention is slower, it means the current discussion is more positive, but the new attention hasn't accelerated; If mentions are rising and bearish are dominant, it may be risk or fault news attracting people. Even if the hype and tone are in the same direction, it still cannot be directly equated with genuine buying. Source is another limitation. Currently, SOL is "almost entirely driven by X." Social channels respond fastest, and the same topic can be reposted repeatedly; The more concentrated the source, the more the next window needs confirmation. News mentions that an increase does not automatically mean the event is true; the original announcement remains the final verifying standard. 2Why BTC and ETH don't rise as much as SanDisk and Micron: Where exactly is the strength in the US stock AI storage market?
Recently, an interesting phenomenon has appeared in the market.
Bitcoin and Ethereum, as core assets in the crypto space, have relatively stable trends, but US stocks like SanDisk and Micron, which are AI storage concept stocks, have shown stronger gains.
Many investors are puzzled:
Why, despite both benefiting from the tech cycle, are US stocks soaring while the crypto market hasn't simultaneously exploded?
I believe the core reason is that the trading logic of the two markets is completely different.
US stocks are currently trading on "realized growth."
Take SanDisk and Micron as examples: the underlying logic is the increased demand for AI data centers. As AI models grow larger, servers require faster storage, and the storage industry is seeing new growth expectations.
Micron's latest quarterly revenue reached $9.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 50%, with data center business becoming a key growth driver. The market is buying not just the AI concept but real orders and profit growth.
But BTC and ETH are currently trading on a different logic.
Bitcoin has no corporate profits or quarterly financial reports; the market focuses more on capital inflows, interest rate changes, ETF demand, and risk appetite.
Ethereum is similar; although it has a large ecosystem, the market is still waiting for more application growth and value capture.
In simple terms:
US stock capital sees the present.
Crypto capital is waiting for the future.
This is also why recent divergence has appeared. Target $200, can $LINK really increase 25 times in four years?
The Block reported that Standard Chartered Bank released its first Chainlink research report, making a rather bold prediction: LINK could rise to $200 by the end of 2030.
Based on the current price of about $8, the potential increase is nearly 25 times.
Standard Chartered's bullish core is not the short-term coin price, but asset tokenization.
In the future, if assets like stocks, funds, bonds, and real estate are massively put on-chain, smart contracts will need stable access to external data such as prices, proof of reserves, and net asset values, and different blockchains will also need to transmit information and assets.
Chainlink's oracles and the CCIP cross-chain protocol are right on this infrastructure path.
A careful analysis shows that "business importance" does not necessarily mean LINK will definitely rise. The $200 target requires many factors:
- Rapid expansion of the RWA market
- Continued adoption of Chainlink by financial institutions
- Increase in protocol fees
- Protocol revenue being converted into demand for LINK purchases or staking.
If institutional usage grows but the token value cannot be captured by protocol value, the price performance may be far below expectations.
$200 is more like a long-term bet on the future scale of asset tokenization, and the premise for the logic to hold also requires observing CCIP transaction volume, protocol revenue, staking scale, and real paying customers. Wednesday at 8:30 PM, the answer will be revealed🕗
On Wednesday at 8:30 PM, the US July CPI will be announced. The market expects the overall CPI year-over-year to be 3.4%, and the core CPI year-over-year to be 2.5%, both lower than the previous values.
This stone is finally about to drop.
But honestly, the real importance is not the numbers themselves, but the market's "re-pricing" of the numbers. Over the past few months, the market has been "predicting" that inflation will come down. BTC has been hovering around 65000 for almost two weeks, waiting for this confirmation signal.
If it meets expectations or is lower: inflation cooling is confirmed, the probability of a rate hike in September is further reduced, and BTC is expected to break through the 65000-65500 resistance zone and push toward 67000-68000. After the past few CPI releases that were lower than expected, BTC rebounded 5%-8%.
If unexpectedly hawkish: BTC may retest 63500-64000, but the pullback is also a buying opportunity. Non-farm payrolls have already turned negative, credit is tightening, the economy is marginally weakening, and Powell does not have much confidence to raise rates further.
CPI is the fuse, but the direction has already been set. On Wednesday at 8:30 PM, BTC will tell you where it wants to go.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ The data no longer matters; what matters is the direction of the game 🧭
Wednesday at 8:30 PM, the July CPI is coming. The market expects the overall CPI year-over-year to drop from 3.5% to 3.4%, and the core CPI to fall from 2.6% to 2.5%. The non-farm payrolls have already set the tone, employment is weakening, inflation is cooling down, and this path has been running for some time.
The expected direction is already quite consistent. The data and expectations don’t differ much; what the market is really playing for is not the number itself, but how the funds interpret it after the data release—whether as a "confirmation signal" or "good news realized."
Two directions, two scenarios:
If the data meets or is below expectations—confirmation of cooling inflation, further weakening of rate hike expectations, a weaker dollar, and declining US Treasury yields. After the past few CPI releases that were below expectations, BTC rose 5%-8% on the same day. BTC is very likely to break through the 65000-65500 resistance zone, Ethereum has even greater elasticity, should break 1,920-1,930, with the next target at 2,000.
If the data unexpectedly comes in higher—the market will panic short-term, BTC may retest 63,500-64,000, and Ethereum’s leveraged positions are heavier, so the drop could be much sharper than BTC. But it’s not a big problem because non-farm payrolls have already turned negative, credit is tightening, and the economy is marginally weakening; Powell lacks the confidence to raise rates. A pullback is an opportunity.
BTC has been consolidating around 65000 for two weeks, not because it’s weak, but because it’s waiting for a signal.
The 65000-65500 resistance zone is indeed tough—multiple tests since June have been rejected. But this time there is a difference from previous attempts: the background has changed. Inflation has declined for four consecutive months, employment is turning negative, and institutions have already bought $854 million via ETFs a week before the CPI release.
CPI is not the end point; it’s the fuse.
Wednesday at 8:30 PM, the market will give you the answer. You don’t need to bet in advance; just follow once the direction is confirmed.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Data speaks, but the direction has already been set📝
Wednesday at 8:30 PM, July CPI will be released.
The expected values are already on the table: overall CPI year-on-year at 3.4%, core CPI year-on-year at 2.5%, both lower than previous values. Non-farm payrolls have already declined as a precaution—July employment decreased by 23,000, with the previous two months revised down by a total of 103,000.
Data speaks, but the trend has already said it all.
Inflation dropped from 4.2% → 3.5% → 3.4%, employment shifted from "strong" to "negative," credit is tightening, and the economy is weakening at the margin. These lines converge, pointing in the same direction. CPI is just a reconfirmation of this direction, not a redraw of the path.
The market has already reacted in advance. In the past week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April. BlackRock alone absorbed $694 million. Institutions don’t heavily bet on uncertain directions; what they read is more complete than the CPI itself—it’s the trend.
BTC has been hovering around 65,000 for two weeks, not because it’s weak, but because it’s waiting for a signal.
The 65,000 level has been repeatedly tested multiple times since June. Every time it falls, it’s caught; every time it surges, it’s pushed back. It’s not that it can’t break through, the time just hasn’t come.
CryptoQuant analysts suggest an August range of 57,700–67,000. Holding above 67,000, the next stop is 71,000–74,000. As long as BTC holds 65,000, ETH at 2,000 is not a dream.
CPI is the fuse, not the direction itself. The direction has already been written in the trend.
Wednesday at 8:30 PM, the answer will be revealed. You don’t need to bet in advance, just follow once the direction is confirmed.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ On the eve of the CPI release, the real answer is not in the data itself, but in how the Federal Reserve interprets the data 📋
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the July CPI will be released.
Expectations are already quite unified: overall CPI year-on-year drops from 3.5% to 3.4%, core CPI falls from 2.6% to 2.5%. These numbers have been repeatedly chewed over, digested, and priced by the market in recent weeks—if they just meet expectations, it would at most be considered "the script going as planned," neither a surprise nor a shock.
But the real question to consider is not "what will the data be," but "how will the Federal Reserve interpret this data."
The nonfarm payrolls have already set a precedent—July employment unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the previous values were revised down by a total of 103,000. Employment is weakening, credit is tightening, inflation is cooling. These three trends converging together are more convincing than any single data point.
There are already divisions within the Federal Reserve. At the July meeting, three voting members advocated for an immediate rate hike. But the division itself precisely indicates one thing: consensus is loosening, direction is wavering. And once direction starts to waver, it is positive for risk assets.
The market has already voted with money in advance.
In the past week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April. Institutions entered the market before the data release. They are not betting on the CPI; they have understood the trend—the inflation rate dropping from 4.2% to 3.5% and then to 3.4%, the direction is set.
What happens next?
BTC has been consolidating around 65,000 for almost two weeks; the 60,000-65,500 resistance zone is indeed tough, with multiple tests being pushed back. But the longer the consolidation, the stronger the momentum once the direction is chosen. CryptoQuant analysts suggest an August range of $57,700 to $67,000. Holding above $67,000, the next target is $71,000-$74,000. As long as BTC holds 65,000, $2,000 for ETH is not a dream.
CPI is just the fuse. The real direction is the turning point of the interest rate cycle.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ On the eve of the CPI release, the market has actually already shown its hand 🃏
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the US July CPI will be announced.
The market expects the overall CPI year-on-year to drop from 3.5% to 3.4%, and the core CPI to fall from 2.6% to 2.5%. The non-farm payrolls have already set the tone — July employment unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 103,000. Employment is weakening, inflation is cooling, and the direction is consistent.
But what’s really interesting is not the expectation itself, but that the market has already priced it in.
In the past week, BTC has been steadily sideways around 65,000, neither surging nor crashing. Both bulls and bears are waiting, neither willing to make the first move. The 65,000 level has been sideways for almost half a month, volume expands then contracts, then sideways again, with the center of gravity slowly moving upward. The lows are gradually rising, indicating selling pressure is weakening and someone is quietly accumulating.
The market has already given the answer in advance: in the past week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April. Institutions are putting their money where their mouth is — their bet is very clear.
CPI is just the final confirmation signal.
If the data meets or even falls below expectations: inflation cooling is confirmed, rate hike expectations weaken further, and BTC is very likely to break through the 65,000-65,500 resistance zone. After previous CPI releases below expectations, BTC rose 5%-8% on the same day, ETH showed even greater elasticity, with the next target at 2,000.
If the data unexpectedly comes in high: short-term shocks are inevitable, but the pullback is actually an opportunity. Non-farm payrolls have already turned negative, credit is tightening, the economy is marginally weakening, and Powell lacks the confidence to raise rates.
There are only two possible outcomes for the CPI result, but only one direction.
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the answer will be revealed. The market’s direction will emerge on its own; you just need to see where it’s headed and then follow it.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ On the eve of the CPI, BTC has been sideways at 65,000 for a week, which actually makes me feel more secure 📦
BTC is steadily holding above $65,000, with a weekly gain of about 3%. The candlesticks look calm, but the undercurrents beneath the surface are more interesting than the price itself.
In the past week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best performance since mid-April. BlackRock alone absorbed $694 million. It's not retail investors rushing in, but institutions voting early—they are betting that inflation will continue to decline and that rate hike expectations will be further weakened.
On the other hand, the Fear and Greed Index remains in the panic zone at 31-32, and Coinbase's Bitcoin negative premium has persisted for 82 days. Funds are flowing in, but sentiment is fearful—a typical characteristic of the night before a market shift.
There are only two possible outcomes for the CPI, but only one direction.
This CPI is the last core macro indicator before the September FOMC. Expectations are consistent: overall CPI year-over-year dropping from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI falling from 2.6% to 2.5%.
If the data meets or even falls below expectations: inflation cooling is confirmed, the probability of a September rate hike is further reduced, and BTC is very likely to break through the 65,000-65,500 resistance zone. After the last few CPI releases that were below expectations, BTC gained 5%-8% on the same day. ETH is even more elastic, with the next target at 2000.
If the data unexpectedly comes in higher: a short-term sentiment shock is inevitable, and BTC may retest 63,500-64,000. But even if it's hawkish, the chance of a September rate hike is still low—nonfarm payrolls have already set the tone, with July employment unexpectedly decreasing by 23,000, credit tightening, and marginal economic weakening, three factors weighing down.
CPI is not the end, it is the fuse.
The longer BTC stays sideways at 65,000, the stronger the momentum will be once the direction is chosen. It will either go up or down; there is no third way.
The answer will be revealed at 8:30 PM on Wednesday. You don't need to bet in advance, just follow once the direction is confirmed.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #Nonfarm $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ On the eve of the CPI release, the market has already entered a "contradictory market"—capital is rushing ahead, but sentiment remains fearful🧩
BTC is firmly above $65,000, with a weekly gain of about 3%. It seems calm, but the undercurrents beneath the surface are more worth pondering than the candlesticks.
Two forces are pulling against each other.
The first force is money. In the first week of August, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best single-week performance since mid-April. BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed $694 million. This is not retail investors rushing in; institutions are putting real money on the line—they are betting that inflation will continue to decline and that rate hike expectations will be further weakened.
The second force is sentiment. The fear and greed index is still hovering in the fear zone at 31-32, and Coinbase's Bitcoin negative premium has persisted for 82 days. Capital is flowing in, but sentiment is fearful—a typical characteristic of the night before a market turning point. While most people's sentiment remains stuck in fear, smart money is quietly adjusting positions.
There are only two possible outcomes for the CPI, but the market's reaction is the key.
This CPI is the last core macro indicator before the September 16 FOMC meeting. Market expectations are consistent: overall CPI year-over-year dropping from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI falling from 2.6% to 2.5%. If the data meets or even beats expectations, confirming cooling inflation, the probability of a September rate hike will be further reduced, and BTC is expected to break through the $65,000-$67,000 range. After the past few CPI releases that were below expectations, BTC gained 5%-8% on the same day.
If the data unexpectedly exceeds expectations, inflation stickiness is higher than expected, and rate hike expectations may resurface. However, even if the tone is hawkish, the probability of a September rate hike is still low—the nonfarm payrolls have already set a precedent, with July employment unexpectedly decreasing by 23,000.
CPI is not the end point; it is the fuse.
BTC has hovered around the $65,000 mark for a week, unable to break up or down. The $65,000-$65,500 resistance zone is indeed tough—multiple tests since June have been rejected. But this time there is a difference from previous attempts: the background has changed. From the 4.2% inflation peak in May, to 3.5% in June, and the expected 3.4% in July, inflation has declined for four consecutive months. The data is on a trajectory, and the direction has not changed.
Now is not the time to guess the direction; it is time to wait for confirmation.
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the answer will be revealed. You don't need to bet in advance; just follow once the direction is confirmed. Let the data tell you the answer, and let the candlesticks show you the direction.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ This week's coverage of CLARITY Act's stalled timeline has repeatedly pointed to an unresolved ethics provision as the core obstacle. Understanding that dispute requires understanding the story it's actually about and this month brought two developments that put real detail behind it. $TRUMP, the memecoin launched under President Trump's name, reached a peak market capitalization near $9 billion and a price of $73.43 on January 19, 2025, the day before his second inauguration. Trump OrganizationOn the eve of the CPI release, the market has already "voted" in advance 🗳️
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the July CPI will be released.
Actually, the market has already given the answer—not through some analyst's opinion, but through the actual flow of funds.
In the past week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $854 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April. BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed $694 million. This is not retail investors rushing in; institutions are putting real money on the line. Their bet is clear—the inflation continues to decline, and expectations for rate hikes are further weakening.
Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index is still hovering in the panic zone at 31-32, and Coinbase's Bitcoin negative premium has lasted for 82 days, setting a new record for the longest duration. Funds are flowing in, but sentiment is fearful—a typical characteristic of the eve of a market turning point. While most people's emotions remain in panic, smart money is quietly adjusting positions.
There are only two possible outcomes for the CPI, but the market's reaction is the key.
If the data meets expectations (or is even dovish): inflation cooling is confirmed, the probability of a September rate hike is further reduced, and BTC will likely attempt to break through the 65,000-65,500 resistance zone. After the last few CPI releases that were below expectations, BTC rose 5%-8% on the same day. ETH is even more elastic, likely breaking 1,920-1,930, with the next target at 2,000.
If the data unexpectedly leans hawkish: inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, the dollar strengthens, risk assets face short-term pressure, and BTC may retest 63,500-64,000. But even if hawkish, the probability of a September rate hike is still low—marginal weakening in employment, tightening credit, and the overall inflation trend downward give Powell no reason to hike aggressively. So a pullback is actually a buying opportunity.
Now is not the time to guess the direction; it is the time to wait for confirmation.
BTC has been hovering around 65,000 for a week, unable to go up or down. The 65,000-65,500 resistance zone is indeed tough, having been tested multiple times since June and pushed back. But this time there is a difference from previous attempts: the background has changed. The nonfarm payrolls have already set the tone—July employment unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the previous two months' data were revised down by a total of 103,000. Inflation peaked at 4.2% in May, dropped to 3.5% in June, and is expected to be 3.4% in July, declining for four consecutive months. The data is on a consistent trajectory; the direction has never changed.
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the data will be released. Regardless of the result, the market will give its answer. You don't need to bet in advance; just follow once the direction is confirmed.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #非农$BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $XSNDK $SNDK
SanDisk Corporation (stock code: SNDK) is currently trading at a high turnover near $1,197.00 – $1,212.00 USD.
Since its spin-off and independent listing from Western Digital (WDC), SanDisk (SNDK) has benefited from the explosive demand for high-capacity NAND Flash and Enterprise SSDs driven by AI servers. The stock price has experienced a significant rise and is now in the phase of "profit-taking at high levels and consolidation of holdings" following the earnings release.
Three key driving factors and fundamental analysis
1. Earnings exceeded expectations but high guidance standards caused pullback
SanDisk's latest earnings report shows that, benefiting from strong AI data center storage demand, quarterly revenue and profits have surged multiple times, and the board has approved an additional $14 billion stock repurchase plan. However, due to extremely high market growth expectations, the next quarter's guidance failed to meet some of Wall Street's most aggressive forecasts, triggering short-term profit-taking selling pressure.
2. AI data centers driving NAND supply tightness
Similar to Micron (MU) in the DRAM/HBM sector, SNDK holds a very high market share in the high-end Enterprise SSD field. Large cloud service providers (CSP) and the AI server build-out wave continue to consume massive NAND Flash capacity, driving contract prices and gross margins sharply higher.
3. Business model transformation (long-term contract NBM)
The company is actively promoting "New Business Models (NBMs)," signing multi-year supply agreements with several leading data centers and collecting prepayments. This long-term capacity and price locking model significantly reduces the risk of severe cyclical fluctuations typical in the traditional memory industry.
Operational advice: As a core heavyweight stock in the AI storage supply chain, SNDK's fundamentals remain very strong. The short-term correction due to earnings-related expectation gaps presents opportunities for investors bullish on the AI memory supercycle in the mid-to-long term to build positions gradually in the $1,050 – $1,180 range for long-term dollar-cost averaging or buying on dips; short-term traders should watch whether the price can hold the $1,180 support level and rebound above $1,300. On the eve of the CPI release, BTC hovered around the 65,000 mark for a week, and everyone held their breath🤫
At 8:30 PM on Wednesday, the US July CPI will be released.
Market expectations are clear: overall CPI year-over-year drops from 3.5% to 3.4%, month-over-month rises 0.1%; core CPI falls from 2.6% to 2.5%, month-over-month rises 0.2%. The Cleveland Fed's real-time forecast model basically aligns — overall CPI month-over-month up 0.09%, year-over-year 3.42%, core CPI month-over-month up 0.21%, year-over-year 2.52%.
The decline is slight, but the direction is downward.
And this trend is more important than the numbers themselves. The nonfarm payrolls have already set the tone — July employment unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the previous two months' data were revised down by a total of 103,000. Inflation peaked at 4.2% in May, dropped to 3.5% in June, and is expected to be 3.4% in July, declining for four consecutive months. The data follow a consistent trajectory; the direction hasn't changed.
With weak employment and falling inflation, how much confidence is left for a September rate hike?
After the nonfarm data, the market has lowered the probability of a September rate hike from over 60% to around 40%. Bank of America still insists on a "September rate hike," stating "the Fed places far more importance on CPI than on the employment report." However, Wells Fargo's chief economist expects no rate changes throughout 2026. The Fed itself is divided — three voting members advocated an immediate rate hike at the July meeting, the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes appeared.
The boot is hanging in midair; the market is more conflicted than the Fed.
Now looking at BTC's position: $65,093, with a weekly gain close to 3%. ETH at $1,919. In recent weeks, BTC has been stuck in the $64,000-$65,000 range, unable to break up or down. It's not that the bulls are weak; the $65,000-$65,500 resistance zone is just too strong — multiple tests since June have been rejected.
CPI is the key.
Scenario 1: Meets expectations or is dovish (core CPI ≤ 2.5%)
Confirmed cooling inflation → further reduced probability of September rate hike → weaker dollar → lower US Treasury yields → BTC likely to break through the $65,000-$67,000 range. After previous CPI releases below expectations, BTC rose 5%-8% on the same day. Ethereum is even more elastic; $1,920-$1,930 should be broken, next target $2,000. On the gold side, spot gold standing above $4,350 is not a problem.
Scenario 2: Unexpectedly hawkish (core CPI jumps above 2.6%)
Inflation stickier than expected → September rate hike expectations surge again → stronger dollar → risk assets under pressure → BTC may retest $63,500-$64,000. Ethereum leveraged longs will be hit harder than BTC. But even if hawkish, the probability of a September hike is still low — weakening employment margins, tightening credit, and the overall downward inflation trend are three factors suppressing it.
Smart money is already moving.
In the first week of August, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $854 million, the best weekly performance since mid-April. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $694 million. But paradoxically, the Fear and Greed Index still hovers in the 31-32 fear zone, and Coinbase's Bitcoin negative premium has lasted 82 days, setting a new record for the longest duration.
Funds are flowing in, but sentiment is fearful — a typical pre-turning point characteristic.
My judgment is simple: as long as there isn't an absurd spike, the September rate hike can be put behind us.
The longer BTC grinds at the $65,000 level, the stronger the momentum once the direction is chosen. CryptoQuant analysts give an August range of $57,700-$67,000. If it holds above $67,000, the next stop is $71,000-$74,000.
As long as BTC holds $65,000, $2,000 for ETH is not a dream.
Bitcoin is waiting for the certainty signal of a rate cut, not the CPI itself. But CPI might be the fuse.
Let's wait and see. The answer will be revealed at 8:30 PM on Wednesday.
#CPI #BTC #ETH #Nonfarm #SeptemberRateHike $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, the agreement was about to be signed, so why did oil prices surge again? Pharaoh directly says, the agreement is almost signed, but it's still a long way from "implementation." Iran's move has directly kicked the ball back to the U.S., so the risk premium on oil prices naturally can't come down.
Let's first see what happened.
Iran and Oman have indeed nearly finalized a new temporary route through Iranian territorial waters. Iranian Foreign Minister Alaghezi also confirmed, "It has entered the final stage."
But what really tightened oil prices was Iran's follow-up move.
The Iranian Foreign Minister clearly stated that the agreement with Oman does not mean the Strait will immediately reopen; whether it reopens depends on whether the U.S. can meet a series of conditions. These conditions include stopping military actions, lifting the maritime blockade, removing all sanctions, compensating for war damages, etc. These are not just conditions; this is clearly kicking the ball back to the U.S., which is unlikely to fully accept them in the short term.
The oil price trend has already said it all.
Brent crude oil has rebounded more than 5% cumulatively over three consecutive days, approaching $85 again. And it's not just about the Strait; the Houthi forces have also claimed attacks on Saudi refineries, and ships of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked while passing through the Strait.
What does Pharaoh think?
The market has long digested the positive news of the agreement, but Iran's move is basically telling the market: the agreement is not implemented yet, don't celebrate too early. Oil prices are very likely to continue fluctuating under the geopolitical pressure cooker in the short term.
Follow Pharaoh, and wealth won't get lost! $BTC $ETH $BICO #霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？ #伯克希尔结束净卖出，重启大额配置
Damn! Abel finally pulled that pile of cash out of the safe.
With Berkshire Hathaway's latest quarterly report out, those in the market still stuck on Buffett's old playbook are probably collectively speechless.
The old trick of selling only for fourteen consecutive quarters has been completely torn up. In Q2, net stock purchases were nearly $20 billion—$23.5 billion bought, $3.7 billion sold, netting almost $20 billion more.
Cash dropped from a peak near $400 billion to about $365 billion. The new boss, Greg Abel, in his second full quarter, has started spending the pile of idle cash Buffett accumulated over decades.
Net profit doubled to over $25.6 billion, which looks great, but that's mostly investment unrealized gains propping up the numbers. Real operating profit rose by 16%. Manufacturing, services, retail, railroads, and energy did well, but insurance underwriting declined, especially GEICO, which looked particularly bad. The cooling of core businesses is the real pit to watch.
Three big capital moves were made: first, $10 billion was poured into private equity to force into Google's parent company Alphabet, pushing it from the fringes into the top five holdings; then $4.5 billion was spent aggressively buying back its own stock, hitting near recent peak quarterly buyback levels; finally, $6.8 billion in cash was used to fully acquire homebuilder Taylor Morrison.
This is not a full-scale sweep but selective strikes. The top five holdings are now Google, American Express, Apple, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola, with tech weight clearly increasing while traditional moat stocks are giving way.
A well-known analyst on X believes this should not be seen as a full bullish signal—there's still over $360 billion in cash. This is selective deployment, not a sudden belief that the market is cheap.
Some think Abel is just branding himself, pushing three lines simultaneously: buying stocks, buybacks, and acquisitions, turning the Buffett-era "only wait, no buy" giant into an active player.
Historically, Berkshire has always acted aggressively when extremely undervalued, but this time the moves come near the S&P's high levels. Money is moving out of U.S. Treasuries and cash into stocks and its own shares, plus a physical acquisition.
The signal is clear: Abel no longer wants to be just a cash custodian. But with insurance shrinking and cash still absurdly high, whether the next big move continues to deploy capital depends on whether he truly has Buffett's vision.
It's too early to draw conclusions, but the direction has changed. The Berkshire that once tightly guarded its treasury without spending a penny is now forcibly transformed by the new boss into a machine that spends money.
As for whether the spending is worthwhile, the market will answer with real money in due time.August 10, 2026 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Deep Review and Outlook
Market Status: Volume Contraction and Convergence, Imminent Breakout
This week, the cryptocurrency market has entered a typical "calm before the storm" phase. Bitcoin's price has been confined within a very narrow range of $64,000 to $65,500 over the past seven trading days, with volatility hitting a nearly three-month low. This extreme convergence pattern usually indicates that the market is accumulating energy, waiting for an external force to break the balance.
1. Macro Game: Nonfarm Payroll Failure, CPI Takes Over Pricing Power
Last Friday's nonfarm payroll data unexpectedly fell far short of expectations, causing the market's probability of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September to surge above 70%. However, risk assets (including U.S. stocks and BTC) did not show the expected rally; instead, they exhibited signs of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." This indicates that the core market conflict has shifted from "liquidity expectations" to a battle between "recession risk" and "inflation stickiness."
2. On-Chain and Capital Flows: Divergence Signals Appear
· ETF Capital Movements: Despite stagnant prices, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $850 million on Monday (August 9), marking a near one-month single-day high. This data forms a clear positive divergence with the sluggish price, suggesting that traditional institutional funds are executing a left-side accumulation strategy below $65,000.
· Demand Indicators Turn Positive: On-chain data shows that the number of new active addresses and the change rate of long-term holders' positions have turned from negative to positive, and short-term holders (STH) are nearly exhausted in selling. However, this "bottom support" is more defensive than an active push upward.
3. Upper Barrier: Massive Unrealized Loss Positions Suppress Rebound Expectations
The current rebound struggles mainly because over 3 million BTC worth of unrealized loss positions are stacked in the $67,000-$72,000 range above. This means that unless there is an extremely unexpected positive catalyst, every price increase will face heavy selling pressure from holders trying to break even. Additionally, the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East limit the willingness of safe-haven funds to flood into high-risk assets.
4. Microstructure: Low Volatility Dominated by Quantitative Trading
The market is currently in a "grid oscillation" mode dominated by quantitative bots as subjective traders exit. Reduced liquidity depth causes prices to be temporarily spiked by large orders but quickly revert to the midpoint. In this environment, trend-following strategies fail, and both bulls and bears await clear breakout signals.
5. Key Variable: Three CPI Scenario Simulations for Wednesday
The market's fate hinges entirely on the U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) released at 20:30 on Wednesday (August 12). We simulate three scenarios based on the data:
· Scenario One (Below Expectations, Higher Probability): If core CPI month-over-month is below 0.15%, the market will reprice the "soft landing + rate cut" narrative. BTC is highly likely to break through the $65,500-$66,000 resistance band and quickly rally to test the strength of the unrealized loss positions at $68,000. This is a bullish scenario.
· Scenario Two (In Line with Expectations, Medium Probability): If data matches expectations, the market will be stuck in "data dependency" indecision. BTC may briefly spike to induce buying then fall back, continuing to oscillate within the range, possibly dipping to test $62,000 support before recovering due to liquidity hunting.
· Scenario Three (Above Expectations Rebound, Lower Probability): If core CPI month-over-month exceeds 0.3%, it will completely shatter rate cut expectations and trigger stagflation concerns. In this case, BTC must beware of a sharp drop risk, with the $64,000 support likely to break, and the first correction targets at $62,000 or even $60,800.
6. Ethereum’s Struggle: Falling with BTC but Not Rising
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s performance is weaker. The ETH/BTC ratio has broken below the key support of 0.048, and on-chain gas fees have dropped to historic lows, reflecting low mainnet activity after Layer 2 scaling. Short-term resistance for ETH is at $3,200, with support at the $3,000 psychological level. If BTC breaks upward, ETH has a chance to catch up, but the momentum is expected to be weaker than Bitcoin.
Operational Strategy Suggestions
· Trend Investors: It is recommended to stay out or hold light positions and wait for volume-expanding candlesticks after Wednesday’s CPI release as an entry signal. A right-side breakout above $66,000 can be cautiously bought, while a drop below $64,000 requires decisive risk avoidance.
· Spot Holders: Consider gradually reducing positions in the $66,000-$67,000 range to hedge potential downside; if CPI is below expectations, patiently hold and wait to take profits above $68,000.
Summary: The current volume-contracted sideways movement is the calm before the storm. Wednesday’s CPI data is not only a guiding light for macro policy but also the only breaker of BTC’s current deadlock. Before the data release, any directional bets carry high gambling risk; waiting for guidance is the best approach.
---
(Note: The dates in the text have been unified logically to August 10, 2026, with the CPI release date on August 12.)The first round of unlocking didn't crash, but that doesn't mean the following rounds will hold up 📦
On August 6, SPCX faced its first large-scale post-listing unlock—911.5 million shares, valued at about $114 billion at the then stock price, equivalent to 1.4 times the circulating shares at that time. The market originally expected a massive sell-off, but instead, the stock price rose, closing up 6.14% at $114.92 on the unlock day.
But this is only the first step of the nine-stage unlocking mechanism.
There are several tough rounds ahead. According to the timeline disclosed in the prospectus:
· August 20: about 319 million shares unlocked
· September: two batches (around September 9/10 and September 24/25), each about 7%
· October: two batches (around October 9/10 and October 24/25), each about 7%
· December 8: 180-day lock-up period expires, the largest batch—circulating shares will surge to 5.33 billion
· June 2027: about 6.4 billion Class A common shares held by Musk unlocked
September and October combined will unlock nearly 1.4 billion shares, more than the first round of 911.5 million shares. The real supply shock is still ahead.
Short sellers haven't fully exited either.
As of August 6, about 36% of SPCX's circulating shares were sold short. Short sellers rapidly increased their bets before the earnings report, with short positions reaching 219.3 million shares by July 29, accounting for 34% of publicly tradable shares. Other data shows short positions around 300 million shares.
But shorts have two sides—the stock price rise on unlock day was partly due to short covering. If insiders dump shares massively after subsequent unlocks, shorts will have more ammunition; if selling pressure is less than expected, shorts may continue to be squeezed out.
My view: just because the first round of unlocking held up doesn't mean the following rounds will.
The first round didn't crash because the 13.6% plunge after the earnings report had already priced in some negative factors, making the unlock day a "negative event landing." Strong buying support appeared around $105–$110. But each batch of unlocking is a new supply shock—700 million shares in September and 700 million in October, more than the first round combined, with chips continuously being released.
Institutional opinions are also clearly divided. Morgan Stanley sees the unlock as a buying opportunity, maintaining an overweight rating with a $300 target price. But Piper Sandler warns that the overhang pressure will last until summer 2027. Argus also points out that future unlock rounds may bring more selling pressure.
SPCX at this level can be seen as cheap (down 50% from the $225 high) or expensive (depending on your calculation). With several rounds of unlocking ahead, I won't heavily bet at this level. I'll observe how the subsequent unlocks are absorbed and wait for the chip structure to stabilize. No rush to jump in, no rush to run.
#SPCX #SpaceX #Unlocking #Shorts $BTC $#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ The last shrinkage crack on the load-bearing wall hasn't been wax-sealed yet, but the concrete pump trucks are already roaring back to life—last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF skyscraper poured $865 million worth of concrete in a single week, setting a 15-week record for the highest pumping volume. BlackRock's IBIT main tower crane alone hoisted $694 million worth of steel bundles; the Ethereum spot ETF, with its fifth consecutive week of net inflows, is like the roof truss, welding each lever arm section into the main structure.
Outsiders hearing these numbers might think the skyscraper is about to be topped out. But to me, this is just the morning report of materials arriving on site. The white paper is the rendering from the design institute, with floor plans, bird’s-eye views, and glass curtain wall reflection parameters so beautiful they could win awards; but what really determines whether this building survives is never the curves on the drawings, but the foundation raft slab on the bearing layer. ETF net inflows represent the general contractor starting to deliver materials, indicating the capital department is willing to transport concrete to the site—but that’s all. The site supervisor’s record can’t cross out the words “materials warehoused” in red pen, because that’s just delivery, not acceptance. The pace of material arrivals can be intense, with pump trucks filling the entire red line area, but if the pile foundation hasn’t penetrated the silty soil layer, no matter how much concrete is poured, it only forms a frictionless pier underground.
What determines whether this building can continue to rise are three hard geological indicators. First, the thickness of the bearing layer as expected by interest rates—the Fed’s geological boreholes show whether the rate cut cycle has truly reached the dense sand layer, which determines subsequent capital costs. Second, the lateral earth pressure coefficient reflecting risk sentiment—when the panic index rises, the retaining structure must withstand the market’s active earth pressure against collapse. Third, the pile spacing bearing the spot market trading volume—only when the pile tips reach the medium-dense gravel layer can tensile forces convert into anchoring forces. Last week’s capital inflows provided ample materials for the site, but the pumping volume unseen in 15 weeks might just be refilling the original foundation pit, not reinforcing it.
Another hidden project worth noting is the US stock gold token XAUT. It acts like a viscous damper in a supertall building, usually not bearing vertical loads but absorbing energy during vortex-induced vibrations and seismic displacements. The linkage between ETF capital inflows and safe-haven assets is changing the building’s dynamic characteristics—you can change the facade to any style, add parametric curtain walls, double-skin ventilation, or even sky gardens, but structural engineers care about only one variable: whether the peak acceleration after damping can keep the inter-story drift angle within the elastic range of the main frame.
I close the blueprint, pick up the laser rangefinder, and head to the site. The tower’s facade reflects dazzling light, but any licensed architect knows that lights on don’t mean power is on. Contractors often tune the night lighting strips to be colorful before the main structure reaches the zero elevation—those are for drones to see, not for geological survey reports.
A hundred pump trucks roaring simultaneously on site doesn’t mean the geological report agrees you can build 200 floors here. #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $MU short position floating profit 135%, I just ask if the brothers who followed are feeling good?
A few days ago, the clear call was to short, saying the rally and then pullback was a bull trap, the old story of long-term storage bull market to fool newbies, and some stubbornly wanted to rush in to bottom fish and take the risk. Now the market directly slaps the face, bulls are crushed so hard they can't even lift their heads, and our short position steadily holds a 135% floating profit.
Don't think the drop is over, the crash is just beginning. Let me show you some data to understand: Looking at the market, from the high of 928.98, in 10 trading days, 6 days closed down, cumulative retracement nearly 5%; yesterday's rally to 891.24 was directly smashed with a long upper shadow, decline with volume, rebound with shrinking volume, the main force is unloading without hesitation. The capital flow is even clearer, main funds net outflow of $450 million in the first three days, rebound single day only inflow of $158 million, then net outflow again of $145 million, clearly a pump and dump; insiders cashed out $169.4 million in the past three months, they themselves don't believe in any long bull myth.
Institutions have quietly turned, Citibank directly cut the target price from $1400 to $1150, slashing 18% in one cut. The industry is even more brutal: storage price increase momentum narrows quarter by quarter, price peak most likely in Q2 next year; SK Hynix is aggressively investing $38.15 billion to expand production, domestic storage capacity is also accelerating, supply-demand reversal is just a matter of timing, the red light for cycle peak has long been on.
The market never lacks opportunities, what it lacks is the courage to reverse when the crowd is loud. Hold the short position firmly, the rebound is a chance to add positions.
The above is only personal operation sharing, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ $SPCX
Recently, it has been a typical short squeeze trend. After all, before the unlock on August 6th, the bearish sentiment was too strong, and the stock price had been steadily declining for a month, accumulating an enormous short interest. It's like a powder keg just waiting for a match to ignite it.
Recent continuous positive developments:
1. The Terafab chip factory, which looks very futuristic and well-designed
2. Argus upgraded to Buy on Thursday with a target price of 160 (not guaranteed to reach)
3. Cursor's 60 billion transaction reportedly to settle this week
4. Cathie Wood increased her position by $13.2 million
All these factors are continuously heating things up and igniting step by step.
Since another batch of unlocks is coming on August 20th, it’s actually hard to be bullish on the rise, although this unlock scale is smaller than that of August 6th, so the panic level might be significantly lower. But I think the limit is around 145 for this wave, because I’m personally stuck around 160, so I plan to open the same amount of short positions first to lock in the floating loss near 140. After a pullback and stabilization, I’ll close the shorts and wait for the next rebound to break even.
However, this is just an ideal plan; who knows if this asset will continue to surge and cause a crazy short squeeze. We have to watch as it unfolds.
Also, note that after the market closes on Monday, August 10th,
$RKLB
will release its earnings report. This is a good opportunity to verify whether the space sector is driven by fundamentals or just rotation. SPCX is very likely to be correlated. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ US stocks rise, crypto market fluctuates, why is capital choosing the other side?
Recently, the market has shown a clear divergence.
US tech stocks continue to attract capital, but the crypto market has not risen in sync.
I think the core reason is that capital is seeking certainty.
The AI industry has now entered the realization phase.
Nvidia's data center business growth has shown the market that AI demand is not just a simple concept, but real commercial growth.
However, many projects in the crypto market are still in the expectation phase.
BTC needs to wait for liquidity improvement.
Altcoins need to wait for new market narratives.
So capital naturally prioritizes directions that have already proven themselves.
This does not mean there are no opportunities in the crypto market.
It means the order of capital allocation has changed. Why is BTC's rise weak? Has the capital really left the crypto space?
The biggest feeling in the crypto space recently can be summed up in one word:
cold.
Many have noticed that while U.S. tech stocks continue to strengthen, BTC and most altcoins have not shown any significant breakout.
I think many people misunderstand the current market.
It's not that capital has left the crypto space, but that capital has chosen to become more cautious.
In previous bull markets, capital would spread from BTC to ETH, then flow into many altcoins.
But now the market structure has changed.
Bitcoin ETFs have brought in more institutional capital, which tends to favor long-term allocation rather than short-term speculation.
At the same time, the U.S. stock AI rally has attracted a lot of risk capital.
The earnings growth of companies like Nvidia has shown capital more certain opportunities.
So now the market shows:
certainty in stock trading.
crypto space waiting for catalysts.
What will truly determine BTC's direction going forward is not just the price, but whether capital raises its risk appetite again. USDC's end-of-quarter circulating supply dropped to $73.3 billion, down 4.8% quarter-over-quarter, highlighting the pressure of capital withdrawal from existing funds. Whether the Arc mainnet launch on September 16 can accommodate institutional incremental inflows will be key to a liquidity turning point.
USDC's end-of-quarter circulating supply fell back to $73.3 billion, with a 4.8% quarter-over-quarter reduction directly suppressing the short-term on-chain spot capital absorption capacity. Although the average circulating supply maintained a 25% year-over-year growth, the contraction in end-of-quarter data indicates a net outflow of liquidity during this phase.
The primary and secondary logics driving capital flow lie in the interplay between redemption pressure on existing funds and expectations for new settlement channels. BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, and Mastercard joining the Arc founding validator lineup determines the depth of traditional capital access channels in the medium to long term, while short-term capital flight is directly reflected in the stagnation of active settlement volume.
The bullish scenario is based on the assumption of smooth entry of incremental funds. If, after the Arc public mainnet launch on September 16, traditional institutions quickly convert tokenized assets and RWA settlement demands into on-chain liquidity, the $73.3 billion circulating supply bottom will be confirmed, and capital flow will shift from net outflow to continuous replenishment. The variable to watch is the actual amount of settlement funds deposited on-chain after Arc goes live; if this data fails to rebound as scheduled, the incremental logic will be invalidated.
The bearish scenario reflects the risk of incremental realization being blocked. If the Arc mainnet launch fails to drive large-scale institutional fund transfers, the 4.8% quarter-over-quarter bleeding trend may continue, further squeezing the overall stablecoin deposit scale. The trigger condition is that no actual capital flow occurs through institutional settlement channels after the mainnet launch; the invalidation signal is the circulating supply breaking above the annual high again at the end of the quarter.
The 25% year-over-year growth in average circulating supply sets a mid-term defense line. As long as this data maintains positive growth, overall liquidity will not experience a structural break. If the quarter-over-quarter decline further expands and erodes the year-over-year growth, the market liquidity premium will face a comprehensive downward revision.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on tracking capital flow and deposits before the Arc public mainnet launch, as well as changes in circulating supply near the $73.3 billion baseline.
#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温Brothers, the strangest thing about BTC and $ETH ETH these days is not that they can't fall or rise.
It's that the volatility is getting narrower and narrower, like someone is holding their breath.
My own judgment is simple: this is very likely already at the late stage of a trend change. At times like this, don't get carried away; stay clear-headed and wait for it to choose its own direction.
ETH is even more interesting.
In 5 days, ETF inflows reached 243.7 million dollars, with 92.1 million on Thursday alone. The data looks pretty solid.
Yet the price is still grinding around 1909, unable to break through 1935.
I don't take continuous inflows as a direct reversal signal, which is different from many people.
If 1900 holds, the bulls still have face; if 1935 can't be taken, there are still sellers pressing above.
If 1885 breaks, those chasing the ETF inflows will get hit first, and 1850 is very likely to be seen again.
I'm not watching for the table to turn green.
I'm watching for how long it takes to give me a clear entry signal. #EarningsObserver: Short Covering Becomes the Focus, What's Next for SpaceX?
I'm Brother Ci. The rebound of SpaceX after the lock-up expiration becomes clear when broken down.
On August 6, the first batch of restricted shares unlocked, about 911.5 million shares became available for sale. The stock price not only didn't fall but continued to rebound. Latest data shows shorts are still active, with over 250 million shares shorted, accounting for about 16% of tradable shares. Options trading volume also expanded, with capital betting on both sides, clearly intensifying the game.
Two forces are simultaneously at play behind the rebound on the unlock day. The selling pressure wasn't as fierce as expected; the founder's shares are locked until 2027, and early investors are unwilling to cut losses around the $100 to $110 range. The selling pressure released by the unlock was absorbed by the market. Buyers are actively entering, with some willing to take shares at this level. Shorts haven't retreated; the 16% short ratio indicates bearish strength remains significant, but this also means if the stock price continues to rise, short covering will become additional buying fuel.
The earnings report itself isn't bad, with revenue up significantly year-over-year and losses narrowing, but high AI capital expenditure is a double-edged sword. The Terafab project has started, and Musk is building chip production capacity, laying out for long-term computing power demand. Neither the unlock nor the earnings crushed the stock price; short covering has become the biggest short-term narrative. With a 16% short ratio, a 10% stock price rise is enough to force shorts to cover heavily. However, the unlock isn't a one-time event; there are subsequent batch windows, and how much the market can absorb remains to be seen.
Regarding the crypto market transmission, SpaceX's rebound and Palantir's better-than-expected earnings both reinforce the same signal: the market is willing to pay for a narrative of future growth in exchange for high capital expenditure. SanDisk's plunge after earnings was due to guidance not being impressive enough, resulting in a discount from the market. SpaceX's rebound on unlock day is because the market is looking at the long-term AI aerospace infrastructure potential. The short-term pressure on the storage sector is a guidance issue, not a disappearance of AI storage demand.
Next, watch two things: whether short covering can continue to drive the stock price and how the selling pressure from subsequent unlock windows will unfold. In this round of SpaceX's rise, short covering is the obvious factor, and options game is the hidden line. The direction is clear; whether to follow is up to you.
Brother Ci has finished. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK "Speak only when you have something to say; don't force words when you don't"
📌CPI Major Data Preview: May Rewrite September Fed Rate Hike Expectations
Macro Big Picture
July CPI inflation data will be released Wednesday evening, and this indicator will directly influence the Fed's September rate hike decision. Previously, weaker nonfarm payroll data reduced the likelihood of a rate hike; now CPI is the key variable determining the final direction.
Currently, the market estimates a 44% chance of a September rate hike. Official Walsh clearly stated that if inflation data warms again, he will vote to support a rate hike. This CPI data is far more important than previous same-period data.
Market Expected Reference Values
Overall CPI year-over-year expected at 3.4%, previous value 3.5%;
Core CPI year-over-year expected at 2.5%, core month-over-month expected at 0.2%.
Three Data Outcome Scenarios and Corresponding Market Reactions
🔺Scenario 1: Inflation Data Exceeds Expectations
If core CPI month-over-month increase surpasses 0.2% and year-over-year value rebounds, the probability of a September rate hike will sharply rise above 60%. Expectations of tightening liquidity will suppress the cryptocurrency market, and BTC will likely pull back to the 62000-63000 range.
⚪Scenario 2: Inflation Data Meets Market Expectations
Data fully matches expectations; the market will only experience short-term minor fluctuations, and rate hike expectations will not change significantly. BTC will continue to oscillate between 64000 and 66000, making it difficult to break out into a clear uptrend or downtrend.
🟢Scenario 3: Inflation Data Below Expectations
If core CPI year-over-year falls below 2.5%, even approaching 2.3%, the probability of a September rate hike will drop below 30%, and expectations of looser liquidity will boost the crypto market. BTC is expected to break through the 66000 resistance with volume and further challenge the 68000 level.
Trading Risk Control Strategy
Maintain a wait-and-see stance before CPI release; do not add positions or heavily bet on direction.
If data is favorable, follow up with long positions based on market volume;
If data is unfavorable and prices fall, patiently wait for a full pullback and stabilization before buying the dip.
Entering the market a day or two later after trend confirmation will not affect returns, but if the direction is wrong, heavy positions can cause significant losses. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解 💰 $1B Into BTC, Yet One Market Signal Looks Strange
This is what I think. What You See about it? Tell me in comments.
Something interesting is happening in Bitcoin.
Spot BTC ETFs reportedly recorded around $1 billion in weekly net inflows, one of the strongest weekly performances in recent months.
At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for an extended period.
That creates an interesting divergence:
🏦 Institutional demand appears strong.
🇺🇸 US spot-market buying doesn't appear equally aggressive.
So where is the supply coming from?
Possible sources include:
• Long-term holders taking profits
• Miners managing treasury reserves
• Existing investors reallocating capital
• Other market participants reducing exposure
We shouldn't assume any one group is responsible without on-chain or market-flow confirmation.
But the bigger picture is worth watching.
If large buyers continue absorbing available supply while price remains relatively stable, the market could be going through a meaningful ownership transition.
The important question isn't simply:
“Who is bullish?”
It's:
“Who is accumulating, and who is distributing?”
That's the data I want to follow.
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #CryptoTrading $BTC $ETH #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn South Korea's KOSPI opened high but fell back; the storage chip "duo" both opened high and then declined, with $SKHYNIX Hynix closing slightly down 0.14% and $SAMSUNG Samsung Electronics down 0.43%. The aftereffects of leveraged financing in South Korea still exist, posing certain obstacles to the recovery of storage chips. SK Hynix plans to launch a shareholder return plan totaling about 100 trillion KRW, including a share buyback of about 40 trillion KRW, with the buyback scale accounting for just over 2% of the total shares. Benefiting from this positive news, the stock rose during the session but fell back at the close. So how will US storage stocks perform tonight? * Micron's HBM logic bottomed out and steadily followed the rise, but next month's earnings DRAM pricing guidance is a sword hanging overhead, limiting gains with relatively high certainty. Expected to open up 1-2%. * SanDisk NAND spot prices are still rising (MLC 64Gb weekly up 5.58%), showing the greatest pre-market elasticity, but post-earnings "selling the fact" plus concerns about the cycle top have not fully released selling pressure. Highest risk of falling back after a high open, pre-market broke below 1200, opening fell about -2%, then sideways during the session. Most likely to oscillate again in the 1150-1230 range. Other news * Citi expects DRAM and NAND prices to peak in Q2 2027, then start to decline. * Jefferies warns "price peak may come earlier than expected," OPPO and vivo have rejected Samsung's Q3 quotes, and SanDisk's Q4 consumer revenue fell 32% quarter-on-quarter. #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解 The most dangerous misconception about 20x contracts: it's not the high leverage, but deciding the position size first and thinking about stop loss last.
Contract trading should be calculated in reverse: not "how many U am I ready to open," but "how much U am I willing to lose at most on this trade."
Here's a simple example with $SOL. Suppose the account has 10,000U, planning to go long SOL near a key structure, with a technical stop loss distance of 4%. If you set the maximum loss per trade at 1% of the account, then the risk budget is 100U, corresponding to a spot-equivalent position size of about 2,500U.
At this point, whether you use 5x or 10x leverage mainly changes how much margin is occupied; the core factor determining account risk remains position size × stop loss distance. Many people reverse the order: first choose 20x → then decide how much margin to put in → finally pick a stop loss arbitrarily. This is why even if the market direction is ultimately correct, the account may exit prematurely.
What deserves more attention are macro events. A 2026 study found that changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations have predictive information for $BTC realized volatility, while CPI expectation changes also have statistical significance for the volatility of altcoins like $ETH and SOL. Therefore, during CPI releases, Fed decisions, and similar time windows, I don't simply ask "go long or short tonight," but first ask: can this position withstand a sudden doubling of volatility?
My execution rules are simple: normal market single-trade risk is 1%-2%; proactively reduce position size before major data releases; stop loss must be placed where the trading logic fails, not at a random point of "I can only accept this much loss"; after 2-3 consecutive stop losses, reduce the risk budget for the next trade instead of increasing leverage to rush to recover.
Risk reminder: **The #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn 听到 Opening the liquidity monitoring table for the six Solana spot ETFs listed across the US, I saw the number “0” written in the net subscription column for five consecutive trading days. Rubbing my tired eyes, I couldn’t help but complain in the traders’ group chat: The promised main force to take over and kick off the altcoin season celebration—why has it turned into a silent stagnation at the secondary subscription level?
Just a few days ago, on August 7, Bitwise’s BSOL Trust Fund, the largest Solana ETF in the US, released its Q2 financial report. The data told a harsh story: although the fund successfully raised $267 million in net subscriptions in the first half of the year, the sharp depreciation of the underlying public chain token prices caused extremely severe losses on its operating books.
Is this disdain from traditional capital towards alt assets, or just normal drainage under regulatory pressure? At noon today, I had a half-hour video chat with an investment advisor director who specializes in digital asset trust allocations for overseas family offices. His answer revealed the long-suppressed truth in my heart.
I asked him, since Solana spot ETFs have successfully listed compliantly on US stock markets, and even giants like BlackRock have started submitting applications for tokenized funds settled on its chain, why has the secondary ETF buying suddenly fallen into this lifeless “flow stagnation”?
He shrugged helplessly and said many crypto bulls habitually try to apply the Ethereum ETF playbook to Solana. But you must understand, Wall Street’s buy side is not monolithic. For long-term trust funds and pension accounts with extremely strict compliance requirements, Solana’s current regulatory and legal positioning flaws are simply impossible to ignore. Regulators still classify Solana as a suspected unregistered security. This lingering regulatory shadow deters most compliant buyers who must bear legal responsibility for the underlying asset’s safety. Without the irrigation from these hundred-billion-level reservoirs, relying solely on a few retail-driven ETFs to speculate cannot sustain such high valuations.
I then asked, does the over $200 million subscription disclosed by Bitwise BSOL, along with the huge book losses, mean institutions got trapped right after entering?
He sighed and said, that’s exactly the case. Large funds were attracted by grand narratives at the bull market’s end, thinking they were buying the future of a high-performance chain, only to be hit by token hyperinflation and secondary liquidity shortages. This painful bleeding on the books quickly creates a severe negative feedback loop, scaring off all traditional allocation funds still on the sidelines.
This five-day streak of zero inflows is actually institutions voting with their feet to express their stance.
Looking at those rows of zero with no fluctuation, I felt a deep sense of relief. In the narrative-driven crypto world, we often overestimate the magic power of the phrase “compliant listing” and overlook the real chasm created by sovereign systems, regulatory positioning, and the underlying asset’s self-sustaining ability. When the hype fades and the bubble bursts, what remains are cold P&L statements and an undeniable liquidity desert.
Institutional money is not here to selflessly catch your digital dreams; they want certainty through compliant channels and long-term safe returns.
How do you view this awkward situation of Solana ETFs having zero inflows for five consecutive days? Facing hundreds of millions in book losses and stubborn security classifications, do you think funds like BSOL will stage a comeback with the upcoming rate cut cycle, or are they destined to be the end station of this round of altcoin institutional narratives? Feel free to leave your observations in the comments.SanDisk $SNDK Weekend (8.8–8.10) News Summary
1. Biggest Contradiction: Explosive Earnings Report but Weak Guidance (Root Cause of This Week's Decline)
- Q4 earnings report historically top and exceeded expectations
Revenue 8.97 billion (YoY +372%), EPS beat expectations by 14%, data center business QoQ +233%
- Fatal negative: FY2027 Q1 guidance conservative (10.3–10.8 billion), falling short of Wall Street's extremely optimistic expectations
- Market logic: positive news realized + high expectations unmet → three consecutive days of capital outflow killing valuation
2. Biggest New Positive Over the Weekend (Key Catalyst for Monday)
Evening of 8.8 major technical positive (industry-level breakthrough)
SanDisk + Hynix jointly released a new high-bandwidth AI flash memory standard
- Customized for AI servers and high-speed computing storage
- Further consolidates the leading position in enterprise AI SSDs
- Institutional interpretation: long-term bottom support orders, alleviating cycle anxiety
3. Fundamental Hard Logic Unchanged (Supports No Deep Drop)
1. Holding $42 billion in long-term data center backlog orders
2. Contract with Kioxia extended to 2034, capacity locked, supply assured
3. $14 billion large-scale buyback plan ongoing
4. No expected price decline for consumer and enterprise flash memory in the next 12–18 months
4. Divergent Institutional Views Over the Weekend (Current Market Sentiment)
- Bulls (Bernstein): maintain super bullish, target price $3000
- Bears (Citi, Wells Fargo): lower short-term expectations, believe short-term gains are overextended and need time to digest valuation
5. Overall Conclusion
1. Fundamentals are completely sound, still one of the strongest AI storage names
2. This week's decline is not a crash, but a valuation kill due to high expectations and profit-taking
3. New industry technical positive over the weekend provides short-term repair and rebound momentum
4. Big trend: oscillating repair, no longer a one-sided big drop, and no continuous big rise for now
6. Monday
- No further deep decline
- High probability of technical rebound repair
- Resistance: 1280–1350
- Support: 1180–1200 $KAITO has dropped a lot recently. When it was around $1.2, I kept posting articles saying the position was too high and not advising to go long at $1.2. Because I think $KAITO was indeed quite expensive at that time. And what about at this very moment? Now $KAITO has dropped to $0.66. Can you go long? I believe now is not a good time to bottom-fish $KAITO. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract long-short ratio is indeed rising, and it has now returned to the level of early July. As for open interest, it has actually increased, which clearly shows that many people are bottom-fishing. On-chain data shows that many people are currently bottom-fishing it. Let's take another look at its trend. It can be seen that even though it dropped to $0.66, it is still more than 150% higher than its February low. This shows that there are still many profitable positions, and even at this level, these profitable stocks are still generating considerable returns. Moreover, I really don't see any signs of slowing down in its trend, so I'm not optimistic about bottom-fishing now. —————————————————— For coins in this situation, I personally recommend trading on the right side. I've always liked bottom-fishing with these coins, and then I often got stuck in them. If you catch the cycle, you might break even; But if you can't catch up,