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#非农意外转负, CPI becomes key to rate hikes. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below the market expectation of about 80,000; May and June employment data were also revised down by a combined 103,000, indicating a deeper-than-expected labor market cooldown. However, the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%, mainly due to a decline in labor force participation, indicating that the labor market is not weakening in one direction. After the nonfarm payroll release, the market quickly lowered its September rate hike forecast: CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September dropped to about 44%, while Kalshi showed the probability of keeping rates unchanged next month to about 65%. However, the differences have not disappeared; Fed officials and some institutions still believe that sticky inflation is a core risk, and if CPI strengthens again next week, rate hike expectations may rebound. For the crypto market, the main trading theme has shifted from "whether employment can beat inflation" to "whether CPI will rewrite September policy pricing after the nonfarm reset."Recent US stock market trading insights: Overcoming human weaknesses is the key to stable profits
Lately, I've been trading US stocks in the storage, aerospace, and semiconductor sectors, where the market has been extremely polarized with sharp rises and falls and rapid shifts between bullish and bearish. Reviewing all my recent trades, the biggest realization isn't that I don't understand the market, but that I do understand it yet can't hold on, endure, or control my impulses. The technicals and news aren't difficult; the challenge is overcoming human nature.
The market has been extremely extreme recently, with two popular sectors showing completely opposite trends.
Storage sector (SanDisk, Hynix)
Earnings exploded, profits doubled, and a 10 billion buyback was implemented—fundamentals are flawless.
But the market always buys expectations and sells facts. The previous gains were too large, all the good news was priced in early, so when earnings were released, it became a selling point for major players.
Despite being super positive news, the sector experienced a sharp decline and correction.
Aerospace rocket sector:
Previously, there was heavy unlocking pressure, high cash burn, and strong bearish sentiment; no one dared to touch it.
But all the bad news was priced in, panic selling was wiped out, combined with military orders and AI collaboration benefits, it reversed against the trend and showed independent gains.
In short: Good news doesn’t always lead to gains, bad news doesn’t always lead to losses; sentiment always outweighs technicals, and expectations always outweigh facts!
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $SNDK $SPCX $BICO $BTC This mining company is increasing its BTC holdings against the trend, while peers continue to sell off
According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET data, the listed mining company CleanSpark slightly increased its holdings by 7 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 13,931 BTC, ranking 11th globally among corporate BTC holders.
Although this increase is small, it shows the company's treasury strategy of consistently accumulating coins. In contrast, recently MARA and Riot have been continuously transferring BTC to NYDIG for liquidation, indicating a clear split within mining companies: some sell on rallies to cover costs, while others choose to continue locking up and holding coins.
On the macro side, the non-farm payrolls report was unexpectedly weak, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts are supporting the market. Institutions like Morgan Stanley are also buying on dips. However, on the other hand, hacker-related BTC addresses continue to show unusual activity, and potential selling pressure cannot be ignored.
The divided stance among mining companies indicates that the market has not formed a unified bullish consensus. Institutions and some miners are accumulating chips, but selling pressure is also real. In the short term, the market remains range-bound and volatile; do not blindly rush in just because miners are increasing their positions.
Do you think more mining companies will choose to accumulate coins going forward? Uniswap has launched a Meme coin launchpad on Robinhood Chain called pools.trade.
The first token launched is called $FRONG, which is a frog. Even funnier, this token was minted 6 days before Uniswap publicly released the countdown video.
What was Hayden Adams' response? "wait whats this about?" — pretending not to know.
Then the platform went live 4.5 hours later than the countdown, and some parts of the page were still empty.
Just think about this series of actions. Uniswap, one of the most serious infrastructures in DeFi, once claimed it would "replace traditional exchanges." Now it has opened a Meme casino on a chain that does tokenized stocks, and the first coin was pre-arranged by insiders.
The idealistic era of DeFi is completely over. The surviving projects are all figuring out ways to make money, and the fastest way to make money is through Memes. A brief analysis of BTC short-term trends from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, volume-price relationship, order flow, and price action (Part 2)
$BTC #星球日报
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour level wave structure, the trend since the July 21 high of 66,914 is re-divided:
Wave A decline (completed):
Wave A: 66,914 → 62,210 (August 3), amplitude -4,704 (about -7.03%), a strong decline but did not create a new low (above the July 8 low of 61,470).
Wave B rebound (ongoing):
Wave B-a: 62,210 → 64,955 (August 5), amplitude +2,745 (about +4.41%), strong momentum.
Wave B-b: 64,955 → 64,091 (August 6, 13:30), amplitude -864 (about -1.33%), a pullback of only 31.5%, indicating strong consolidation.
Wave B-c (current): 64,091 → 65,348 (August 7, 12:00), amplitude +1,257 (about +1.96%), strong momentum but has not yet broken the amplitude ratio of the B-a high point 64,955. Currently, it has retraced from 65,348 to 64,872, possibly in a sub-wave correction of wave B-c.
Larger scale structure: If the range from 57,721 (July 1 low) to 66,914 (July 21 high) is considered wave 1 of a new upward wave, then the current adjustment from 66,914 to 62,210 is wave 2 correction. The wave 2 correction amplitude of 4,704 is about 51.2% of wave 1's rise of 9,193, which is a normal deep correction. If wave 2 ended at 62,210, then wave 3 is currently starting, with a target at least equal to wave 1, i.e., 62,210 + 9,193 = 71,403.
Wave conclusion: Currently possibly in the rising process of wave 3 (or wave B-c). The August 7 high of 65,348 has broken through the August 5 high of 64,955, confirming the continuation of the upward structure. If it can stop falling with reduced volume between 64,500-64,800 and then continue to break through 65,500, wave 3 is confirmed with a target of 66,500-67,500; if it falls below 64,000, the upward structure may fail again.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price characteristics: A significant volume surge appeared during the sharp drop on July 21. From July 21 to August 3, volume shrank overall during the decline, indicating a gradual exhaustion of selling pressure. At 09:45 on August 3, a low-volume stop-fall signal appeared near 62,210. From the afternoon of August 3 to August 5 during the rebound, volume moderately increased, showing positive volume-price coordination. On the evening of August 5, volume expansion with price stagnation appeared in the 64,800-64,900 range. On August 7, a strong volume breakout occurred, pushing from 64,112 up to 65,348, with significantly increased volume, showing active bullish capital inflow. During the late session on August 7, volume shrank as price retraced from 65,348 to 64,872, indicating limited selling pressure. Overall, it shows a positive volume-price combination of "volume contraction during decline + low volume stop-fall at bottom + volume expansion during rebound + volume contraction during consolidation."
Key volume-price nodes:
August 3, 09:45: Low volume stop-fall (volume about 50 million level), forming a stage bottom at 62,210.
August 3, 19:30: Volume surge with bullish candle (volume about 450 million level), pushing from 63,365 to 64,019, confirming the start of bullish counterattack.
August 5, 20:15: Extremely high volume bullish candle (volume about 520 million level), pushing from 64,750 to 64,955, confirming the B-a wave high.
August 6, 13:30: Low volume bearish candle (volume about 120 million level), pulling back from 64,800 to 64,091, confirming the B-b wave low.
August 7, 12:00: Volume surge bullish candle (volume about 1.3 billion level), pushing from 64,936 to 65,348, confirming the start of wave 3 (or wave B-c), the largest recent volume.
August 7, 22:00: Low volume consolidation (volume about 110 million level), price narrowly consolidating between 64,800-65,000.
Recent volume-price status: From late August 7 to early August 8, volume clearly shrank, price narrowly consolidating between 64,800-64,900, a normal digestion after breakout.
Volume-price conclusion: After the volume breakout above 65,000 on August 7, volume-price coordination is very positive. Key observation points: If it pulls back to 64,500-64,800 with low volume stop-fall, wave 3 may continue; if it breaks down below 64,000 with volume surge, the rebound ends. U.S. employment suddenly turns negative, next week's CPI is the real big test
U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly dropped by 23,000 jobs, while the market originally expected an increase of 83,000. Moreover, May and June data were collectively revised down by 103,000. The average monthly job growth over the past three months is only about 20,000, indicating a clear cooling in the labor market.
After the data release, the market immediately lowered bets on a September rate hike. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both fell, while gold and U.S. stocks surged.
However, it’s still too early to say the rate hikes are over because the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, and wages are still up 3.2% year-over-year. Therefore, next week's CPI will be very critical. If inflation also cools down, the Fed will have less reason to continue raising rates; conversely, if CPI exceeds expectations again, the market’s trading logic over the past few days might have to be reconsidered.
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 $SNDK $BICO $SPCX 📊 Core Contradiction: Nonfarm Payroll Upset—Why Is the Market Celebrating? Nonfarm payrolls in July were -23,000, far below the expected +80,000, marking the first monthly negative growth since February 2026; The combined employment data for May and June was sharply revised down by 103,000 people. This is a weak employment data, but the market is choosing to celebrate. Core logic: Cooling employment has further opened the Federal Reserve's rate cut window. After the data was released, Nasdaq futures surged 1.25%, the crypto market pulse rose overall, BTC surged above 65,000, and the market began pricing in a September rate cut. However, the unemployment rate fell back to 4.1%, not because of a sharp increase in jobs, but mainly due to a drop in labor force participation, indicating that the data is weak but flawed, not a one-sided recession signal; employment is simply cooling noticeably. Current interest rate futures show a 55%-60% probability of a 25bp rate cut in September, which is not a fixed conclusion but merely a rising expectation. Ultimately, it depends on next week's CPI verification. 🪙 Crypto | Amid expectations of interest rate cuts, the crypto market as a whole is experiencing a resilient recovery. As the core asset of the crypto market, BTC rebounded from around 62,500 to above 64,000 this week, with a weekly gain of about 3.1%, ending a three-week correction. ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of about $760 million this week, with BTC exchanges remaining at their lowest levels since 2018. With the implementation of non-farm payrolls, the entire crypto market has surged rapidly, once again confirming the transmission chain:#Nonfarm unexpectedly turns negative, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes
The nonfarm data just poured cold water on rate hike expectations, far from a policy shift. Don’t rush to go all in on long positions; next week’s CPI is the real make-or-break factor.
When the data came out last night, many on the planet freaked out. July nonfarm payrolls dropped by 23,000, while the market expected an increase of 80,000. The data for the previous two months was also revised down by a total of 103,000, meaning the cooling in the job market far exceeded everyone’s expectations. The market reacted with a surge, and many immediately shouted “rate hike ends, bull market begins.”
But after reviewing the full data, I stayed calm—the unemployment rate didn’t rise; it actually fell to 4.1%. The core reason is a decline in labor force participation, not a total collapse of the job market. Simply put, employment is weakening but not enough for the Fed to completely abandon inflation concerns.
This is the most interesting part: two weeks ago, the market was united in expecting a rate hike in September. One nonfarm report halved the probability of a hike, and market sentiment flipped faster than candlesticks. But crypto markets never move based on a single data point; the fuller the expectations, the more likely a “good news priced in” reversal after the fact.
I took profits on a short-term long position after a rebound last night, didn’t dare hold long-term, nor chase higher or add positions. At this point, the risk-reward ratio for betting on direction is too low; better to wait for next week’s CPI release before making a move. As long as inflation remains sticky, the Fed can pull back rate hike expectations anytime, and those chasing highs will get burned again.
The deepest lesson from trading so long: don’t swing with market sentiment. Make fewer predictions before data releases, wait for signals, and survival is always more important than quick profits.
Did you trade based on the data last night? Do you think there will still be a rate hike in September?
$BTC Google has borrowed another $25 billion, and the AI war is getting more and more expensive
Google's parent company Alphabet is preparing to raise money again in the bond market, planning to issue up to $25 billion in bonds with maturities ranging from 2 to 40 years.
I think this number only makes sense when viewed together. In the first seven months of this year, large tech companies including Amazon, Meta, and Oracle have issued about $194 billion in bonds, a 79% increase compared to the same period last year. The entire tech industry has truly entered a crazy spending phase for AI.
Google itself is no different; its capital expenditure in the second quarter has reached $44.9 billion, even causing the company to report negative free cash flow for a single quarter for the first time.
So now the AI competition is no longer just about whose model is stronger; it looks more like a capital war. Data centers, GPUs, electricity, and storage all require money. Whoever can keep investing has the chance to be the last one standing. $SNDK $GOOGL $META #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 #Nonfarm Payrolls Unexpectedly Turn Negative, CPI Becomes the Key to Rate Hikes
I'm Cige, the nonfarm data exploded. New jobs decreased by 23,000, while the market expected 80,000. The previous value was revised down from 57,000 to negative 76,000, with May and June combined revised down by 103,000. However, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1% because the labor force participation rate fell, not because employment strengthened.
Employment turning negative while unemployment rate declines indicates a structural issue. Large-scale layoffs in government sectors are the main drag, and the private sector isn't doing much better, with companies cutting back on hiring. The unemployment rate is still falling because fewer people are looking for jobs, not because the job market improved. This structure closely resembles the early stages of an economic recession, where total employment contracts but the unemployment rate hasn't started rising sharply yet.
After the nonfarm release, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from over 50% to 44%, and Kalshi shows the probability of holding rates steady rose to 65%. The interest rate market is moving toward a dovish stance, but the divergence isn't over. Fed officials and some institutions still see inflation stickiness as the core risk. If next week's CPI strengthens again, rate hike expectations could rebound at any time. The main trading theme has shifted; it's no longer about who can outlast whom, but whether CPI will rewrite September's policy pricing after the nonfarm surprise.
The direct impact on BTC's short-term trend is clear. Employment data fell far short of expectations, September rate hike probability declined, the dollar weakened, and risk assets benefited in the short term. BTC quickly rallied from around 64,750, reaching above 65,500, triggering short liquidations and a short squeeze is unfolding. After breaking 65,000, the next resistance zone is between 66,000 and 66,500. The positive effect of weak nonfarm data is still fermenting, and the short-term bullish trend is likely to continue.
Next week's CPI is the real test. If CPI data is strong, rate hike expectations will surge again, and BTC may retest 63,500 to 64,000. If CPI data is weak, rate cut expectations will heat up, and BTC could challenge 67,000 to 68,000. Nonfarm has already shaken the table; CPI will decide whether this rally is a rebound or a reversal. Before the data lands, don't hold heavy positions, set stop losses well, and wait for CPI to decide the next direction.
Cige has finished. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Note a valuable insight that's easy to overlook: BlackRock's latest disclosure shows it held 51 million Class A shares of $SPACE as of the end of June. Institutions are quietly accumulating pre-IPO assets in the secondary market; this signal is more concrete than any hype—smart money is positioning early on the "space + AI infrastructure" narrative. The real potential of $SPACE isn't just in the rockets themselves, but in Starlink's cash flow and its strategic positioning to power and network AI data centers. Retail investors have limited exposure, but to understand where the narrative is headed, you first need to know where the big money is going. Protect your ammo and watch closely. #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
Day 10 of reviewing losing trades every day
A little fanboy of Boss Ten!!
Please call me the national service trader, although today is another day of eating instant noodles
🔥 Earnings far exceeded expectations, yet the stock price reversed and plunged! The storage sector staged a magical scene 📉
Clearly, both revenue and profit exploded, with some leading companies' gross margins soaring above 80%, a performance worthy of a money-printing machine. However, after the earnings release, the sector collectively pulled back. Many investors are puzzled: Is the AI memory bull market over? 💥
📊 Behind the market phenomenon is not a fundamental reversal but the classic capital market behavior of "buying expectations, selling facts." In this storage rally, stock prices have long priced in optimistic market expectations. The capital game is not about how much is earned now but how fast growth can continue in the future.
Even if current data is impressive, if next quarter's guidance fails to continue the explosive growth and cannot meet the already high expectations, profit-taking at high levels will concentrate and trigger a stampede-like correction. After a huge rally, the sector's chips are extremely crowded, and even slight marginal signals can be amplified into a big drop.
✅ The bullish logic still exists: The real demand for HBM high-bandwidth memory from AI large models and AI servers has not disappeared, major manufacturers' capacity remains tight, the industry's supply-demand pattern has not been completely broken, and buyback policies provide some buffer for stock prices.
⚠️ But risks cannot be ignored: Storage is a strongly cyclical sector, and ultra-high gross margins are hard to maintain permanently; the price increase slope is gradually slowing, making it difficult to sustain the previous explosive growth. A bull market does not mean only one-way upward movement; deep oscillations and corrections after big rallies are normal for cyclical stocks.
In summary: The long-term logic of AI memory has not been completely disproven, but the short-term sweet spot is over. The market has shifted from mindless surges to a high-difficulty oscillation and game phase. It is no longer an era of winning by closing your eyes.$SLX surged today. Looking at the data now, there should be a lot of short positions inside. However, I am not very optimistic about these bears, because this coin may continue to rise. I checked the data for this coin, and right now it should be halfway up the mountain, not just halfway up the top. If you enter this position, you may suffer huge losses. This position really isn't very open to empty. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract long-short ratio only peaked at 4 a.m. today, while its contract open interest had already started rising yesterday afternoon. This indicates that many bulls had already entered yesterday afternoon to go long. This also indirectly shows that $SLX's recent rise was definitely not a whim—it was well prepared. Let's take a look at its funding rate. Its funding rate is surprisingly much higher, which is a rather strange phenomenon. Because this coin is listed in the spot market, if I go short the contract at this time and buy the spot at the same time, Then I can achieve a low-risk profit of 40 to 50 percent annually. This is a very strange thing because making this profit is very simple. Is there really such a good opportunity to make money in the market? I thought carefully and thought this might be a major shipment. Currently, very few retail investors are willing to buy this kind of spot trade, so they may need to rely on arbitrage to sell off. The more people shorting it now, the more people are actually buying its spot share. Then the dealer would not acceptTonight's nonfarm payrolls may be even more deceiving. When everyone is waiting for a number, what the market is truly betting on is something else. Have you noticed? First, let's talk about the most vulnerable link I saw: the betting structure in the derivatives market has already priced in tonight's "neutral" results. In other words, if the data really falls near 83,000, there may be little fluctuation, since expectations are already ahead of the data. The core variable tonight has never been the nonfarm payrolls themselves, but the "temperature difference" between them and the unemployment rate. If employment is strong but the unemployment rate rises above 4.3%, the market will not simply interpret it as "good economy" but will instead start worrying about stagflation logic, which is a more difficult situation for risk assets than simple employment. Looking at three paths in a breakdown, but more important than the path is the rhythm: - The data falls in the 60k-100k range: this is everyone's "safe card," but the derivatives market has already factored this outcome, so the real response might be — first insert small pins, then slowly recover, better to observe, not chase. - Data exceeds 130k: Stronger US dollar, tech stocks under pressure, but crypto should note that the correlation between BTC and US stocks is weakening recently. If US stocks fall while BTC holds sideways, it indicates that market funds are switching logic rather than simply avoiding risks. - Data below 40k: On the surface, it's favorable for risk assets, but if unemployment surges simultaneously, the market will shift directly from "easing trading" to "recession trading," which is when gold and ...a LUNA-style contagion discount on $HYPE has no backing in the Situational Awareness figures. the percentage return measures fund performance, while the asset estimate describes post-sale holdings, including private investments that remained. subtracting different-date asset estimates doesn't measure investor loss, so a $HYPE short built on that arithmetic is flimsy.Many people immediately cheered that the Asian crypto sector has won big when they saw the US CLARITY Act vote postponed, but I think there's no need to celebrate prematurely.
With US regulations still undecided, a large amount of institutional capital is temporarily flowing to Hong Kong and Singapore to find footholds, while Japan and India are also rushing to improve their crypto regulations. Asia has indeed gained a development window.
But this is merely a gap dividend, not an established pattern. When the August recess ends, the bill will be brought back to the table. Capital is always pragmatic; it migrates to where rules are stable and expectations are clear.
If Asia wants to retain funds and talent, it cannot simply rely on US policy stagnation. A continuously stable regulatory system is the trump card; short-term benefits cannot withstand excessive hype. A structural check on the crypto market after the non-farm payrolls. $BTC basically stayed flat around 64500 in the past 24 hours, with funding rates maintaining a mild positive value and open interest remaining low, indicating that this wave neither saw long positions adding leverage nor panic deleveraging, just low volume and cautious observation. Liquidations are still hitting shorts more, the short squeeze structure remains, but the volume can't support a trend. Coinbase is trading at a slight discount to Binance, showing that US funds are not aggressively accumulating. In short: the data tells you the market is waiting for the next macro variable, not choosing a direction. Watch the positions, don't be fooled by a single candlestick.Last night, the non-farm payrolls missed expectations, which under normal circumstances should be bearish, and the market did dip a bit right after opening.
But instead of continuing to fall, the market didn't drop further, and the reason is simple: everyone started to bet again on a higher probability of rate cuts.
At first, the group chat was quite anxious, especially since we had just experienced a replay of a big drop. Seeing the poor data, the first reaction was naturally, "Is it going to crash again?"
But the market's response wasn't that pessimistic.
Just looking at $AXTI and $AAOI, you can still see capital making selective moves here,
which is actually quite important.
Because a truly weak market is one where bad news comes out and no one steps in to buy;
The scenario I wrote about on August 4th is still unfolding as expected.
As retail investors, we just need to follow where the money is going to benefit, rather than constantly trying to predict the future.
So my stance remains: when it drops, look for opportunities but don't chase; add on support, if there is support, otherwise wait. Morning Review: Nonfarm Payroll Collapse Shakes Rate Hike Expectations, Can BTC Rally Today?
Woke up this morning to check the market. Last night’s nonfarm payroll reversal probably left many holders uneasy.
A few days ago, the Fed hawks were all out making tough statements, shouting that rate hikes should gradually resume, pushing the September hike probability up to 57%. BTC crashed down to 64000, ETH and SOL followed with steady declines. Yesterday morning, some in the group chat were already shouting that BTC would break 60k, and many were cutting losses.
But last night’s nonfarm data slapped that down: July employment actually declined by 23,000, while the market had expected an increase of 80,000. This is the first negative growth since February this year. Earlier ADP data also surprised on the downside, with only 44,000 new jobs, a six-month low. So much for all the talk about fighting inflation; the labor market is starting to buckle.
Once the data came out, the rate hike probability was slashed to 40%, and the market immediately bounced back. BTC reclaimed above 65200, up 1.3% in 24 hours; ETH touched 1940, up nearly 1.7%; SOL also crept up to around 74. But honestly, the volume was mediocre, it looks more like an oversold rebound rather than a reversal start, so I didn’t dare chase the highs.
About my own positions: I placed some short-term orders near 64000 yesterday afternoon, and this morning when it pulled back to around 65500, I took half profits to lock in gains. I didn’t touch my long-term base positions; these fluctuations aren’t worth frequent trading.
The most interesting thing now is the Fed itself is divided. Hawks insist inflation is still at 3.6%, far from the 2% target, and oil prices are still rising, so no easing; doves say employment is already shrinking, pushing further hikes could cause big problems. With both sides arguing, the market is swinging back and forth, and the crypto space is completely led by macro trends with no own rhythm.
Don’t think a nonfarm surprise means rate cuts are coming anytime soon. Not a chance. Without real inflation drops, the Fed won’t budge. We’re in an awkward observation period—too risky to hike, no face to cut rates, so they’ll maintain high rates and wait to see which side breaks first.
The real direction will be set by next week’s CPI data. If inflation surprises on the upside again, even with weak employment, the Fed will likely stay tough or even act; if inflation drops, rate hikes are basically off the table, and then BTC and ETH might finally see a decent rally.
My advice for today’s market: don’t chase blindly, don’t panic sell. Hold your positions if you have them, and if you don’t, don’t rush to go all in. In a choppy market, chasing highs and cutting lows is the worst strategy. Wait for next week’s CPI before making moves.
Purely my personal market thoughts, not investment advice. Everyone manages their own money.
$BTC, $ETH, $SOL
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 Reconciliation between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—once realized, the certainty transmission path to the crypto circle and US stocks is clear
The transmission chain is clear and direct: Strait open → geopolitical risk premium on crude oil completely dissipates, oil prices trend downward → inflation pressure substantially eases → market establishes rate cut expectations → global risk assets receive systemic boost.
---
I. US Stocks
1. Clear benefits: Nasdaq, AI tech growth stocks (NVIDIA, etc.). After oil price suppresses inflation, the Federal Reserve no longer needs to maintain high interest rates, removing valuation suppression factors for high-valuation growth stocks.
2. Sectors with certain benefits: aviation, logistics, chemicals; energy sector faces clear pressure, oil price decline will directly suppress oil stock performance.
3. Core risk: short-term sentiment-driven rather than fundamental reversal. If it is only a temporary 60-day agreement, the benefit can easily turn into "sell on the news"—pressure to decline after announcement.
II. Crypto Circle
Bitcoin currently belongs to risk assets, following the major trend of US tech stocks.
Bullish logic:
1. Falling oil prices directly reduce inflation, market shifts to trading rate cut expectations, liquidity expectations improve—clear benefit to BTC;
2. After the geopolitical panic subsides, safe-haven funds flow out of gold, some funds flow into risk assets, injecting incremental liquidity into the crypto market. Isn't the market hard to operate? The US stock storage sector is falling more and more fiercely, with Micron, Hynix, SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate all weakening collectively. Seagate even plunged 10 points, which is not a coincidence; the industry cycle has already declined.
Previously, AI was booming, and everyone was hoarding inventory crazily; but now, demand from consumer ends like phones and computers is weak, and inventory is piling up high. Manufacturers don't want to cut production and lose market share, so supply keeps increasing. DRAM and NAND chip prices keep dropping, naturally squeezing company profits.
De-stocking will take at least 2-3 quarters. Even if AI servers are still consuming chips, it can't make up for the huge demand gap in consumer electronics.
Especially Seagate and Western Digital, besides the industry downturn, solid-state drives are continuously taking over the mechanical hard drive market, putting double pressure on them.
In short, this is now a downtrend phase. As long as inventory isn't cleared and chip prices aren't stabilized, fundamentals won't improve. Rushing to bottom-fish now is easy to get trapped; the short-term market is very likely to remain weak. Although BTC and ETH volatility is becoming more limited, K-line analysis is pretty consistent. If you can analyze BTC and ETH well, other varieties won't be a big problem; just strictly control your position size.
$BTC $ETH #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 I'm revealing my position on $BICO
Last time with $LAB I was deeply involved, and in the end, I lost several thousand U, falling just before dawn. I really admire LAB's market makers.
But to pump a meme coin, certain conditions are required. If you want to pump it 10x or 100x, many conditions must be met. First, the circulating supply must be low,
second, there must be a tripartite agreement among the dealer, the platform, and the market maker. No one can sell chips recklessly.
It's not like we imagine that having money means you can be the dealer.
People are selfish. Suppose you bought $BICO at 0.01 with 10,000 U. Even without leverage, if it pumps to 0.1, that's a 10x gain. Wouldn't you sell?
At that time, many people with LAB airdrops had paper profits of millions of dollars. Those holding these positions were more anxious than the market makers. On the first day of unlocking, they wanted to sell everything because the less they sold, the more it depreciated. They also knew it was just air.
Back to $BICO, it's already fully circulating. You can check. The dealer still has a huge amount of coins unsold, so many that no matter how much you spend, you can't buy them all. They can sell anytime. Now the dealer's biggest worry is how to sell, not how to spend money to pump the price.
Brothers holding short positions, you must hold on.Yesterday, ETH was +2.03σ, and the entire internet was calling it a bullish pullback. I didn't chase after him. Today, ETH fell back to +0.41σ, and the entire network went quiet. I didn't move either. But I found an even more dangerous signal in the data—not ETH, but cross-exchange divergence. 📊 Let's look at the sentiment panorama. Today, all coins have 7-day deviations in the yellow zone (neutral): BTC +0.07σ, ETH +0.41σ, CRV +0.37σ, OP 0.00σ, H +0.03σ. Everyone is on the look. This is the first time in nearly seven days. ⚠️ But cross-agency data is fighting 💡: my operations are empty at 80%. If either of these two conditions is met, I'll act: ETH falls back below +0.5σ (normal range→ may open a long list, OKX big players rebound above 1.0, → cross-exchange divergence resolved, not moved by volatility, only acting as signals. 📋 Today's Data Overview: 7-day sentiment: +0.18σ (normal) 14-day sentiment: +0.04σ (normal) Cross-exchange divergence: 1.44 (●strong divergence, divergence widening sharply) Fear and greed: 40 (Neutral) Liquidation: $193.82M (+22%) Here's a question: OKX 0.25 (historical low) vs Binance 1.52 (stable with slightly bullish), which side will win in 3 days? A. OKX whales are right—bearish
B. Binance Big Players Are Right and Bullish
C. Mutual destruction, continuing sideways consolidationMicron Technology $MU SanDisk $SNDK Hynix $SKHYNIX
I have a bold hypothesis: the recent days were not a reversal but a self-protection move. If the Nasdaq index had dropped about 1% yesterday, it would have triggered systemic sell-offs. Considering the puzzling market behavior combined with the current global stock markets, especially the technical bear market in South Korea, once this sell-off is quantitatively triggered, it’s very likely that both feet will fall together—that is, a simultaneous drop, which institutions do not want to see. Institutions obviously know that the current index is fully supported by technology, particularly storage, so they are pulling it up to maintain a safety line.
Supporting evidence is the very strange situation now: storage technology is rebounding, gold is rising, and oil is also going up. This is quite odd. Moreover, the big CSP test is coming in a few days, the first of which is not so favored, and Gemini 3.5 Pro is delayed by Google. When no one can hold onto the current returns and capital expenditures, institutions usually prioritize risk aversion. Since CSP failed, and CSP and storage are linked, the risk is doubled, yet now they are strangely choosing to push it up???
Can any major player analyze what the current situation is? #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $XRP this time "has really gone far, Mr. Teacher".
After the decision not to bring the Clarity Act to a vote in the Senate before the 8/10 recess, the SEC also refused to settle "a special agreement" related to the lawsuit with #Ripple, making the previous court ruling (declaring XRP is not a security) more fragile than ever. $XRP will continue to "live in anxiety" at least until the Clarity Act is fully passed by the U.S. Congress (expected to be voted on after the Congressional recess).
A "cross-border payment" token with a market cap in the Top 10 largest coins in the world now has to rely "on the mercy granted by Clarity to survive." OMG.
There are still "supporting accounts" for this "Premium Memecoin" with news like: Mastercard has started integrating XRPL into payment operations??? WT... Since when did Mastercard announce this? XRP news at this time: Partnership/integration into... /low-cost payments... Just to be taken as fun info, it does not help rescue the price drop of $XRP .
The only thing #Riple can do now to save $XRP is a strong token burn mechanism; only reducing supply can lead to growth.
Will "they" be strong enough to "burn money from their own pockets"???
Let's wait and see!
#Rippe_Burned XRPU.S. retail investor funds are continuously flowing into DeFi through layer 2 networks, and the risk appetite fluctuations in traditional capital markets are directly impacting on-chain liquidity.
After Governance Proposal 100 passed, the protocol's daily revenue surged from $114,000 to over $325,000, and $UNI stabilized with a 7% rebound after a short-term bottom test.
Robinhood's layer 2 chain saw over 340,000 new tokens in a single month, with the fees contributed reaching three times that of the Ethereum mainnet, becoming the core capital pool for smart contract automatic token buyback and burn.
The user base of traditional U.S. stock brokers combined with the risk asset recovery driven by macro interest rate cut expectations has precisely converted spillover liquidity into deflationary momentum captured by on-chain tokens.
If U.S. retail funds continue to flow in and on-chain trading activity remains high, the expansion of daily burn scale will push the valuation midpoint upward, while cross-market risk aversion triggered by shifts in interest rate policy signals the failure of this path.
If hype around new tokens cools causing protocol revenue to decline, or if disputes over Pools.trade revenue sharing lead to creator attrition, prices will face downward pressure; only an Ethereum mainnet revenue rebound exceeding expectations can halt the decline.
Current divergence centers on whether high fee rate rules can retain liquidity during traditional stock market pullbacks; once weekly revenue scale shows continuous decline, the sustainability of the deflationary logic will be disproven.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether the fee contribution from layer 2 networks can remain stable at over half of the protocol's weekly revenue.
#Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温Bitcoin's short-term activity has already approached historical lows.
Many people think this is a bad thing.
But historically, it's often quite the opposite.
Because the real bottom is never formed when everyone is optimistic, but rather when everyone finds it boring and is unwilling to watch the market, it slowly emerges.
However, low short-term holder activity does not mean the price will immediately rise.
Historically, in 2015, 2019, and the end of 2022, such indicators remained low for extended periods.
The market can consolidate at the bottom area for several months or even longer.
For long-term investors, this is a very noteworthy signal.
Regarding this round of market adjustment, I strongly agree with one saying:
Truly cheap assets are often not believed to be cheap when bought; when truly expensive, everyone thinks they can still rise.This wave of $SOL is really weak, while $BTC and $ETH are both oscillating upwards, $SOL is oscillating downwards.
1. The 6 spot ETFs of SOL have had zero net inflow for 54 consecutive days from the 3rd to the 6th, it seems the institutional players are losing steam, with no new buying support.
2. Moreover, it has dropped 10.34% in the last 30 days, breaking technical levels, falling below several short-term moving averages, which can be considered entering a downtrend channel.
3. There haven't been any positive catalysts recently, so it seems hard for it to break out with volume and hold above. The burn vote on the 18th might be a hope, but it requires 15% staking support, which is uncertain.
4. Mainly, I don't see any improvement in the macro environment either, so it's still hard for it to strengthen. For friends wanting to bottom-fish, I suggest waiting a bit longer.Yesterday, ETH was +2.03σ, and the entire internet was calling it a bullish pullback. I didn't chase after him. Today, ETH fell back to +0.41σ, and the entire network went quiet. I didn't move either. But I found an even more dangerous signal in the data—not ETH, but cross-exchange divergence. Today, all coins have 7-day deviations in the yellow zone (neutral): BTC +0.07σ, ETH +0.41σ, CRV +0.37σ, OP 0.00σ, H +0.03σ. Everyone is watching. This is the first time in nearly seven days. ⚠️ But cross-exchange data is fighting. Deviation 1.44 = strong divergence. OKX whales are panic-selling, Binance whales are firmly long. In the same market, big players on both exchanges are trading each other's SB 💡. My operation: 80% short. If either of these two conditions is met, I'll act: ETH falls back below +0.5σ (normal range→ may open a long list, OKX big players rebound above 1.0, → cross-exchange divergence resolved, not moved by volatility, only acting as signals. 📋 Today's Data Overview: 7-day sentiment: +0.18σ (normal) 14-day sentiment: +0.04σ (normal) Cross-exchange divergence: 1.44 (●strong divergence, divergence widening sharply) Fear and greed: 40 (Neutral) Liquidation: $193.82M (+22%) Here's a question for you: OKX 0.25 (all-time low) vs Binance 1.52 (#Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes
The unexpected negative nonfarm payrolls provide short-term breathing room for risk assets like Bitcoin — the cooling of rate hike expectations directly drove the price rebound.
But the real directional choice depends on the CPI data on August 12:
If CPI is moderate → dovish expectations strengthen, Bitcoin is expected to challenge $70,000
If CPI is hot → rate hike expectations reignite, the rebound above $65,000 will face pressure
The current macro environment can be summarized as: employment data opened the door to "pause rate hikes," but inflation data determines how wide that door can open.
$BTC $ETH For cryptocurrencies, the short-term positive has already been realized, but sustained upward momentum still requires inflation confirmation and a broader liquidity environment.#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温
Alphabet's $25 billion bond issuance is essentially a snapshot of the AI arms race entering the "money-burning phase." For the stock price:
The willingness of capital to lend to Google (oversubscription) indicates that institutions are optimistic about the AI sector in the long term; however, the stock price pressure reflects trading disagreements:
Short-term massive capital expenditures suppress profits, and the AI commercialization return cycle is full of uncertainties.
In simple terms: computing power investment leads, profit realization lags.
Short-term pressure mainly comes from market panic over huge capital spending and concerns about AI talent loss;
Mid-term support comes from strong demand in the bond market ($115 billion subscription) showing that capital markets are still willing to provide ammunition for AI expansion;
Long-term key depends on whether these massive investments can be converted into considerable commercial returns within a reasonable timeframe.
As market observers have pointed out: "The first half of the AI race is about who has more money and computing power; the second half is about who can retain the people who truly understand AI." BlockInfinity Research Market Review · 8/7: Weak Nonfarm Payrolls Clearly Fail to Ignite Risk-On, Clear Trend Locked in Precious Metals Instead of Crypto
🌍 Macro Environment
US July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 (expected positive growth), the first negative since February; unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since June 2025. Interest rate futures show about 28bp rate hike priced in for December (32bp before nonfarm) — this cycle remains an inflation and rate hike paradigm, weak employment did not translate into rate cut bets. Gold continues to hit new highs at $4,342 (+2.4%), silver $63.4 (+3.5%), with both safe-haven and inflation-hedge attributes surging. Dow futures at 54,076 (+0.12%); European stocks closed broadly higher (DAX +0.63%, FTSE 100 +0.33%). Trump clearly stated AI is more important than oil, "Whoever wins AI wins everything."
🛢️ International Situation
Iran-Hormuz standoff continues (Tehran mayor: no sanctions lift + compensation, no passage through the strait); Russian military hit two cargo ships in the Black Sea. Huatai lowers Brent forecast: Q3 average $80, Q4 $70, 2027 $65; WTI $78.4 (+0.7%). China: Beijing relaxes property policies (non-local social security requirement down to 1 year); A-shares strengthen (SSE 3940 +1.0% / CSI 300 +0.9%), semiconductor chain strong (Montage +3.4%).
📊 Crypto Technicals (Multi-Timeframe)
$BTC $64,921 (+0.5%): Daily MACD histogram +78 continuing up, above Bollinger upper band, bullish bias; 4H multiple bullish RSI 61.8; 15m slightly bearish tangled pullback.
ETH $1,918 (+0.4%): 1H multiple bullish, 4H bullish RSI 62.6, daily MACD slightly negative but rising, tangled bullish.
SOL $73.9 (+0.9%): Daily bearish RSI 46.6, weakest leg.
📉 Derivatives
24h short liquidations BTC $30.3M vs long liquidations $7.8M (short squeeze about 4x), ETH short liquidations $23.3M — short squeeze structure continues. Funding rates mildly positive: BTC +0.0063%/8h, ETH +0.0036%, SOL +0.01% (no extremes). Open interest changes mild, volume extremely low (holiday-like quiet).
🎯 BTC Core
Spot discount −0.088% / −$56 (institutional slight sell bias). Fear & Greed Index 26 (Fear); DVOL 46. Max Pain: 8/8=65,000 (PCR 0.94), 8/9-8/10=64,500 — magnetic pull near spot price, premium induces both long and short traps.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📊 Intraday Update (California 12:10 PT)
BTC $64,780 (+0.56%) — magnetic oscillation around 64K. Daily MACD main line golden cross, above MA20/50 bullish, but 4H/1H Bollinger bands narrowing = imminent volatility. Range 62.2K↓ / 66.9K↑, no direction until breakout.
ETH $1,911 (+0.21%) — holding MA20/50, 4H bullish, 1H slight death cross. SOL remains weakest leg.
Spot discount −0.08% / −$52, no dip buyers in US session; crypto fails to follow US stocks new highs + gold surge, "follow down not up" divergence continues.
🇺🇸 US Stocks / Safe Haven (US session ongoing)
S&P 7,749 (+0.5%, record area) | Nasdaq 26,637 (+1.09%) | Dow 54,010 (+0.23%) | Semis SOX +2.48% strong. But storage sector is weakest: SNDK −4.2% / SK Hynix −4.3% / MU −2.1% (third consecutive day down, valuation kill-off). Gold hits new high $4,395 (+2.2%), silver $63.5 (+3.1%) — truly clear trend is in precious metals. WTI $78.2 (+1.2%) | VIX 14.87 (−1.9%, calm at low).
📰 Key News
US Senate passes Russia energy sanctions bill 86–11 (to House) + adds 13 Iran-related entities sanctions → oil price support. BLS new chief Matsumoto confirmed by Senate (51–47), replacing predecessor fired by Trump last year over weak employment data — combined with weak nonfarm, data credibility is focal point, but rate futures still price December hike. Musk: Starship 13th flight recovery not optimistic; Grok Build progressing.
🧭 Comprehensive Judgment
Weak nonfarm failed to ignite crypto risk-on: gold hits new highs, BTC only small gains, "follow down not up" divergence continues this week, risk-on and safe-haven both failing. Structurally oscillating between 63K–66K, Max Pain magnetic pull at 65K + short squeeze support, but no daily trend confirmation.
👉 No clean one-way crypto moves, no positions unless daily breakouts (above 65.4–66K → confirm longs / below 62.2–63K → turn short); avoid chasing trades near range midpoints or magnetic zones; if itchy, trade light and short-term with wide stops.
👉 Clear trend is in gold/silver, not crypto or storage; gold momentum strongest, scale in on pullbacks, avoid chasing tops.
👉 Storage/semis down third day (SNDK −4% / SK Hynix −5% / MU −2%), sector weakest in valuation kill-off — avoid chasing shorts mid-range or catching falling knives, tactical small positions on both sides only.
⚠️ Risk Events
Next week US CPI (key inflation paradigm); Hormuz geopolitical tail risk escalation; storage sector correction continuation vs A-share storage chain divergence; short squeeze rebound without volume follow-through prone to traps, avoid results-oriented trading.
BlockInfinity Research · Powered By Wesley
Data captured in real-time, not investment advice $SNDK $SPCX $BICO
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
Ridiculous! This week, stock trading was like jumping off a cliff and soaring at the same time; chip storage and aerospace stocks completely diverged.
For those trading US stocks, this week was a real test of heart endurance.
Let's start with the storage sector representative, SanDisk, which had a great hand but played it terribly.
The earnings report was overflowing with profits, and the company directly spent 14 billion on stock buybacks, clearly a strong move to support the stock.
But the old stock market saying proved true: good news priced in is bad news.
The stock soared earlier, and the big money makers took advantage of the good news to rush out and sell.
Meanwhile, South Korea's SK Hynix kept dragging down the sector daily, falling nonstop, plus rumors of Nvidia cutting video memory poured cold water on the storage sector.
SanDisk was forced down from highs, grinding at lows; bottom fishers got trapped, shorts profited, entering the market meant getting hit from both sides.
On the other hand, aerospace rocket stocks showed a completely opposite trend.
Previously weighed down by large unlocks and high cash burn costs, the stock kept sliding, and everyone thought it was doomed.
Unexpectedly, all the bad news was priced in, panic selling ended, and with AI factory collaborations and military orders boosting it, the stock rose sharply against the market trend.
While the overall market fell, it rose; while storage crashed, it stood out, perfectly carving out an independent trend.
We thought the pattern was set, but last night’s nonfarm payrolls were a sudden shock.
US employment data was disappointing, the dollar plummeted, and the market bet the Fed would ease and cut rates.
The wind direction changed instantly; storage stocks that had been crushed started to recover and rebound, and aerospace stocks continued to add fuel and surge.
Those heavily invested in storage: were so worried they couldn’t sleep a few days ago, but breathed a sigh of relief after the nonfarm data.
Those all-in on aerospace: just relaxed and watched the show, feeling great.
Those switching back and forth doing T trades: got slapped on both sides, made no money, and their blood pressure shot up.
A word of advice: don’t stubbornly stick to one-sided trades; sector divergence is too extreme. Don’t go all-in aggressively on the nonfarm big move. Manage your positions steadily, don’t guess the direction, and go with the flow. $BEAT's dog whale has very strong control over the market 👍
The spot price has been oscillating around 2 for a long time while unloading positions.
If it rebounds higher, for example above 3, many trapped holders will rush to sell and escape (so the dog whale won't act like the Liberation Army), but currently it is oscillating around 2 to unload, giving those trapped holders hope, so they won't compete with the dog whale to flee.
If there is a large volume dump, and the dog whale hasn't sold much of their own chips, they will trap themselves, which is not profitable.
Next, the script guess:
So the dog whale will continue to control the market around 2 for a long time, at least to unload most of their spot chips.
Finally, the dog whale will open short positions in contracts and heavily dump centralized spot positions, causing a sharp drop in contracts, where the dog whale will profit to offset losses in spot.
Ultimately, the token will head towards zero.
Waiting to verify the script.$GIGGLE It has been steadily growing upward since yesterday afternoon. This morning, $GIGGLE even touched my cost price. I bought the bottom relatively early, so now everyone isn't too late to enter—at least the cost price is lower than mine. Personally, I believe this coin can continue to rise in the short term. Because when I analyzed its data, I found that many people were going long these past two days, and the amount of capital was quite large. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that at 8 p.m. last night, its contract long-short ratio surged sharply, and the contract open interest was declining. However, immediately after, its contract open interest climbed again. Personally, I suspect that last night many bears took full profits, and at the same time, some bulls also started to enter the market. These bulls likely initially opened initial positions and then gradually increased their positions. Personally, I think they may have used time-weighted entrustment because the capital volume is relatively large. Let's take a look at its longer contract data. It can be seen that on July 27, its contract long-short ratio also saw a significant increase. Let's look at the corresponding candlesticks. It can be seen that three days later, on July 30, the coin experienced a major surge. Personally, I think buying more of this coin now isn't a bad thing. Moreover, this coin is relatively meaningfulElon Musk has too much money and wants to give out red envelopes, so why not accept them?
Honestly, the $SPCX trend made me laugh.
On August 6, 911.5 million shares will be unlocked, the largest restricted stock unlock in history, and everyone is waiting for a crash.
So what happened? The stock surged 23% two days after the unlock, with market value soaring over $320 billion.
On Friday, the stock price jumped nearly 16%, closing at $133.11, just a step away from the $135 IPO price.
The float increased from 639 million shares to 1.55 billion shares, more than doubling the supply, yet the price soared. Who could have written this script?
Looks like only Elon Musk could!
The essence of this surge is "bad news priced in + short covering."
Before the unlock, short positions accounted for over 36% of the float, with unrealized gains on shorts exceeding $9 billion at one point.
After the unlock, the float surged, and the short ratio dropped sharply to 16%.
More than 250 million shares of shorts were forced to cover, directly pushing the price up.
On Friday, options volume reached 2.24 million contracts, with 1.3 million call options hitting a record high.
This is not value discovery; this is a short squeeze.
Bigger risks lie ahead!
On August 20, about 319 million shares will unlock, another 319 million on September 9, and by December 8, about 40% of the float will be unlocked.
Elon Musk’s 60% stake won’t unlock until mid-2027.
SpaceX’s AI business still lost $1.257 billion in Q2, with Capex reaching $18.369 billion.
A company that keeps burning cash, with a $1.68 trillion market cap—how long can this price hold?
Trading plan: short at current price 132, first target 115, second target 100.
The rebound from short covering is ultimately a rebound, not a reversal.
$BTC
$ETH
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ "Speak only when you have something to say, don't force words when you don't"
What should be said is not said! Post-nonfarm crypto market structure check
After the nonfarm data release, the overall market tends to be cautious and consolidating, with BTC basically flat around 64500 in the past 24 hours. Contract funding rates remain mildly positive, open interest continues to hover at low levels, clearly showing that bulls have not taken the opportunity to increase leverage, and bears are not panicking to reduce positions; the whole process is dominated by low-volume oscillation.
Liquidation data still shows higher losses on the short side; the market inherently has a short squeeze potential but unfortunately lacks sufficient volume to support a one-sided upward trend. Additionally, Coinbase quotes are slightly discounted compared to Binance, indicating that domestic US funds have no intention to rush in and accumulate.
In summary: The macro nonfarm data provides bullish conditions, but the market has not chosen a direction accordingly; everyone is waiting quietly for the next round of macro news catalysts. Focus more on position sizes and volume logic, and don't be misled by short-term fluctuations of single candlesticks. #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解 Since the launch of Aave V4 on the Ethereum mainnet in March this year, it has been continuously attracting deposits.
As of early August, V4 deposits have exceeded $350 million, with $100 million added in the past 30 days alone.
The V3 deployment on Monad has also attracted over $500 million in deposits and $215 million in active loans.
The protocol's total value locked is close to $14.5 billion, accounting for about 60% of the DeFi lending market share.
Historically, cumulative deposits have reached $3.46 trillion, with cumulative borrowing surpassing $1 trillion.
On August 7, on-chain monitoring detected that an Amber Group-associated address withdrew assets worth $9.97 million from an exchange, including 28,262 AAVE tokens valued at $2.52 million. It was not a large order, but the direction was a withdrawal, not a deposit—withdrawals usually indicate no intention to sell in the short term.
On the same day, Aave DAO was also discussing a cleanup proposal—to shut down low-usage deployments on six chains: Sonic, Scroll, zkSync, Metis, Soneium, and Aptos, involving approximately $98 million in deposits. This reflects the protocol's maturity—not casting a wide net anymore but focusing on core markets and the V4 upgrade. $AAVE "Speak only when you have something to say; don't force words when you don't."
#Uniswap advances to the launchpad, can UNI open a new narrative?
1. Strategic Cooperation Value
The core advantage of this cooperation lies in user interoperability: Robinhood boasts 25 million monthly active users and is a leading retail investment platform in the US. Uniswap, as the default AMM on this platform's L2 chain, can bring a large number of traditional investors into the DeFi arena.
The data performance is impressive: in July 2026 alone, over 340,000 new tokens were launched on Robinhood Chain; the fees contributed by this chain account for nearly half of Uniswap's weekly protocol revenue, with its revenue scale being three times that of the Ethereum mainnet.
2. Community Fee Rate Controversy
Many users question the fee structure. For the same million-dollar trading volume, other platforms' creators earn about $6,000, while Pools.trade only pays $500. Founder Hayden Adams responded that the seemingly high fee rate does not exploit traders; combined with a 0.25% fee and an automatic reinvestment mechanism, it actually benefits the long-term stability of token liquidity.
3. Positive Impact on UNI
After the news broke, UNI rebounded 7% from its intraday low. The passing of Governance Proposal 100 is a long-term positive: part of the protocol's revenue is allocated to smart contracts that automatically repurchase and permanently burn UNI on the secondary market; the protocol's daily income surged from $114,000 to over $325,000.
Now, UNI is no longer just a governance token; with real cash flow plus deflationary burning, its value logic has been completely upgraded. $UNI #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 On August 8th, a large on-chain transfer occurred—a whale address transferred 33,000 ETH to an exchange, worth $63 million.
This address had received 33,000 ETH on July 25th at an average price of $1,860, losing about 3% to 4% over two weeks and chose to cut losses and exit.
At the same time, wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have net decreased by about 80,000 ETH in the past week. Retail and mid-sized wallets, however, have been accumulating, with wallets holding 100 to 1,000 ETH increasing by about 30,000 ETH. Previously, whales were buying and retail was selling; now part of that has reversed—some are cutting losses and exiting, while others are buying in.
What’s more intriguing is a whale on Hyperliquid who opened a 5x leveraged short position at $1,856, holding $11.5 million, with a liquidation price of $1,947. If ETH rises to around $1,950, this short will be liquidated. Above $1,950, there are about $528 million in short orders waiting to be liquidated. Both bulls and bears have heavily bet around $1,950; once the direction becomes clear, the winner takes all. Before the CPI on August 12th, it’s highly likely the price will continue to consolidate within this range. $BTC $ETH On August 8th, the EIP-8361 draft remains controversial.
Aave founder Stani Kulechov publicly opposed it, saying that if staking rewards drop to zero, Ethereum's "yield-bearing asset" narrative will collapse.
But EtherFi CEO Mike Silagadze also opposes it, for a different reason than Stani—he says the protocol itself should decide whether to burn, rather than it being mandatory. The Ethereum community has split into three camps: the burn camp, the freedom camp, and the cancel camp.
The proposal is still in the discussion phase and far from implementation.
Interestingly, the market hasn't started pricing this in yet. The second-largest coin near 1,900 hasn't shown any extra volatility due to EIP-8361. This indicates the market is still waiting to see who makes the first move.
Regarding the Glamsterdam upgrade, the Sepolia testnet was activated on August 3rd, with the mainnet target set for September 16th. The gas limit has been raised from 60 million to 200 million, and base layer fees are expected to drop by 78.6%. Technically, progress is being made, but market attention is fully focused on the CPI on August 12th. If the second-largest coin can't hold 1,950, it will keep waiting; if it breaks 1,850, it will exit to observe first. The direction will be decided after the CPI release. $ETH ETH is hovering around 1,917 today.
Basically no movement compared to last week.
When Bitcoin (big coin) rises, ETH doesn't follow much; when Bitcoin falls, ETH goes down together.
Bitcoin's market dominance has reached 59.01%. Altcoins' total market cap is 904.8 billion, but most of the money is concentrated in Bitcoin.
ETH's market dominance is 10.48%, almost unchanged. Derivatives trading volume is also declining, short-term funds are withdrawing, and no one is willing to place heavy bets around 1,900.
A signal worth watching is that stablecoin trading volume has increased by 4.52%. Money is moving out of volatile assets into stablecoins, waiting on the sidelines. ETH has been sideways around 1,900 for a week—not building momentum, but waiting for direction. Before the August 12 CPI, it will likely continue to fluctuate between 1,850 and 1,950. If it can't break above 1,950, keep waiting; if it breaks below 1,850, exit and reassess first. $ETH Nonfarm payrolls fell by 100,000, but BTC only rose 0.9%: The real limit on the market is not interest rates
Last night, the U.S. released a much weaker-than-expected employment report.
The market had originally expected nonfarm employment to increase by about 85,000 in July.
The final result was not an increase, but a decrease of 23,000.
The gap between expectations and reality exceeded 100,000.
More importantly, May and June employment data were revised down by a combined 103,000. What previously looked like a stable job market suddenly became fragile after the revisions.
According to the market script of recent years, this should be very strong positive news for risk assets.
Weaker employment means less pressure for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates; expectations for rate cuts rise, bond yields fall, funding costs decrease, and both tech stocks and crypto assets should rally.
U.S. stocks indeed moved that way.
The S&P 500 rose about 0.6%, the Nasdaq about 1.3%, both hitting or nearing record highs.
But BTC’s reaction was not as strong as expected.
This morning, BTC hovered around $64,800, up about 0.91% in 24 hours; ETH rose about 0.62%; SOL rose about 1.46%.
The total crypto market cap rose 0.64%, with volume up 9.17%.
The gains are real.
But compared to a data surprise of this magnitude—negative nonfarm employment growth—the reaction seems very restrained.
Why did such a huge data surprise only result in less than a 1% rise in BTC?
My judgment is:
Weak employment resolves the question of "will liquidity continue to tighten?" but does not solve "why would new funds want to buy Bitcoin now?"
These are two completely different issues.
Macro liquidity determines whether there is money outside the market.
Narratives determine where the money flows.
Chip structure determines how fast prices can rise once money flows in.
Last night’s employment data only improved the first point.
It made the market believe the probability of further Fed tightening is decreasing, and the possibility of future easing is rising.
But rate cut expectations only open the faucet; they don’t guarantee the water will flow into the crypto market.
Currently, U.S. stocks have AI, corporate earnings, and new index highs as reasons to attract funds; gold has economic slowdown and safe-haven logic; bonds can directly benefit from falling rates.
In contrast, BTC currently lacks a strong, fresh, crypto-native narrative that can immediately mobilize off-market funds.
ETFs still have inflows, but OKX data shows BTC ETF net inflows of about $4 million in the most recent trading day, and about $187 million over the past 30 days.
These funds can support the price but are not enough to trigger an uncontrolled rally.
Therefore, I believe the market is not trading on "an immediate restart of a bull market" but rather on "a temporary reduction in the worst liquidity risk."
This is more like lifting the price floor rather than opening the price ceiling.
Weak employment has another side.
If employment is only mildly cooling, it is good news for rate cuts.
But if employment continues to decline, affecting corporate hiring, household income, and consumption capacity, it will shift from a "rate cut signal" to a "recession warning."
The reason last night’s data didn’t excite all risk assets thoroughly is that the market cannot yet judge whether this is a short-term fluctuation or the economy crossing a critical threshold.
The unemployment rate remains only 4.1%, with no obvious deterioration.
But labor force participation dropped to 61.4%, financial sector employment has decreased by 121,000 since the recent peak in May 2025, and May and June data were significantly revised down.
This is a report with a weaker internal structure than the surface unemployment rate suggests.
So the market is in a very delicate position now:
The data is weak enough to increase easing expectations;
But it may be weak enough to make funds start worrying about the economy itself.
The most likely market behavior at this stage is not a one-sided surge but repeated swings.
At data release, trade rate cuts first, prices rise;
After rising, start discussing recession, funds take profits;
Next inflation data comes out, re-evaluate whether the Fed has room to ease.
From the market structure perspective, I would not yet define today as the start of an altcoin season.
BTC dominance still reaches 56.7%; although ETH and SOL rose, assets like XRP, ADA, and HYPE showed divergent performance. Funds have not broadly dispersed but are more focused on repricing rate expectations.
What’s really worth watching is not whether BTC can briefly stand above $65,000, but three follow-up signals:
First, can ETF net inflows expand from a few million dollars and sustain for several days;
Second, after BTC breaks out of the range, can volume expand synchronously rather than spike and fall back;
Third, can ETH and mainstream altcoins continue to outperform BTC, truly broadening the rally.
If these three conditions appear, weak employment could upgrade from a macro positive to fuel for a new rally.
If not, it’s more likely just raising the market bottom without changing the oscillation structure.
My current conclusion is:
A 23,000 decrease in employment does not mean BTC must surge.
It only indicates the interest rate ceiling pressing down on the market is loosening.
But to truly open up upside space, the crypto market still needs its own story, sustained incremental funds, and a healthier chip structure.
The macro environment can hand over the match.
But the market itself must be ready with fuel.
Do you think this negative nonfarm growth is a "rate cut signal" or has it already started turning into a "recession warning"? Whales are buying.
Wallet addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have net increased their holdings by 130,000 ETH over the past week.
Even more aggressive is one address, 0x2684, which has been continuously scooping up ETH since June 30 at an average price of $1,777, accumulating 79,216 ETH and spending $140 million.
Another OTC whale bought 37,000 ETH from Galaxy Digital in the past two weeks, worth $71.1 million.
But retail investors are selling. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH reduced by 230,000 ETH, and those holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH reduced by 130,000 ETH.
Together, these two groups sold 360,000 ETH, while whales only bought 130,000.
ETH's net outflow from exchanges continues but has shrunk from -34,000 ETH in mid-July to -4,000 ETH. Buying pressure is weakening.
The SOPR indicator fluctuates between 0.98 and 1.01; most people are exiting near their cost basis, unwilling to wait to break even. $ETH This might be one of the factors behind many small exchanges going bankrupt during the bear market.
At first glance, this chart shows "CEX futures trading volume dropping to a 31-month low, with only about $4 trillion in July."
But what I think is truly worth noting is not just that the market has cooled down, but that "trading volume is increasingly concentrating at the top."
In the past, small exchanges were mainly competing against big platforms like Binance, OKX, and Bybit for users.
Now the situation is even tougher because on the other side, perpetual DEXs like Hyperliquid are rapidly capturing the demand for contract trading.
To put it bluntly, small and medium CEXs are now being squeezed from both ends: the big CEXs above attract funds with depth, liquidity, and brand power, while the DEXs below lure high-frequency traders with on-chain transparency, self-custody, and new gameplay.
This is actually fatal for many small exchanges. Because for many platforms, the real profit doesn’t come from spot trading but from the fees generated by users continuously opening contracts, leveraging, and closing positions.
When the market is hot, everyone can get a share; once the entire futures trading volume drops from the peak level of $10 trillion to the current $4 trillion, the cake shrinks, and the first to be squeezed out are often those "small platforms lacking depth, users, and market makers."
BitMEX is a very interesting example. It used to be a representative exchange for perpetual contracts, but in the end, it couldn’t even hold onto its strongest market and even started promoting Hyperliquid-related products on its official website.
This scene actually shows that the industry is changing: "It used to be big exchanges eating small exchanges, but now it might be 'top CEX + top DEX' together eating up the middle platforms."
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 The Glamsterdam upgraded Sepolia testnet was activated on August 3rd.
The mainnet deployment target is around September 16th. The gas limit has been raised from 60 million to 200 million, and base layer fees are expected to drop by 78.6%.
MEV-related manipulation opportunities are expected to decrease by up to 70%.
This is the largest protocol change on Ethereum since The Merge.
ETH is currently around 1,917; the technicals are progressing, and fundamentals are improving. But the market's attention is currently focused on CPI and the Federal Reserve. Technical upgrades are hard to drive prices alone in a bear market; it will only get its turn when macro sentiment improves. If it can't hold above 1,950, keep waiting; if it breaks 1,850, consider exiting to observe. Don't hold heavy positions before the direction is clear; watch more and act less.
$ETH SNDK: Earnings beat, but the stock price finds the result not impressive enough $SNDK
SNDK's latest earnings report shows revenue of about $8.97 billion, a year-over-year increase of 372%. Both revenue and earnings per share exceeded expectations, but the stock fell 6.8% after the report. This is the toughest part about high-expectation stocks: good results are just passing; they must be good enough to make the market recalculate the valuation.
I simulated a long position before the earnings, and at the open I thought it would be a big win, but the final profit was just enough for a small bonus. HBF, AI servers, and NAND shortages remain long-term stories, but in the short term, let's see if the post-earnings low can hold. Only if the stock recovers above the top of the big bearish candle can we say the funds have truly returned. Do you think this is a shakeout after good news has been priced in, or has the high growth already been overextended?
#SNDK #SanDisk #AIStorage
This is not investment advice. 65000 touched and then came back, Bitcoin had a quiet week
On August 8th, Bitcoin hovered around 64,900, reaching a daytime high of 65,400 before being pushed back down.
The week is almost over, and it’s been grinding back and forth between 62,000 and 65,000 — it can’t break up or down.
The trigger is still the non-farm payrolls. In July, US non-farm employment decreased by 23,000, while the market expected an increase of 80,000 to 85,000. This is the third largest monthly employment drop since 2020, and June’s data was revised down by 37,000 jobs. The unemployment rate slightly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. After the data release, the probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from a high level to 66% and remained unchanged, and Bitcoin instantly surged to 65,200.
But the problem is, no one chased after the bounce. On Friday, the US stock market opened with a spike, then gradually slid down. The 65,000 level has been tested at least four times since early August, and each time it was pushed back down. The current pattern is a typical “rally and fall,” a data-driven pulse move without sustained buying.
Range-bound oscillation itself isn’t the problem; the issue is when the oscillation lasts more than a week, volatility will suddenly release at some point. The direction hasn’t emerged yet, but the longer it stays sideways, the stronger the breakout will be. Both bulls and bears are waiting for the August 12 CPI, which is the real determinant of direction. Before CPI, Bitcoin will most likely continue grinding between 63,000 and 65,500. $BTC BlackRock bought $470 million worth of BTC in one week, but the price just won't move
From August 3 to 6, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling $763.6 million.
On August 6 alone, net inflows were $137.6 million, and on Thursday, August 7, another $128.69 million came in.
Just BlackRock's IBIT withdrew 7,320 BTC from Coinbase Prime this week, worth about $478.5 million.
As of August 8, the total net asset value of Bitcoin ETFs has reached $78.77 billion.
$760 million inflow in four days should have sent the price soaring in any normal market. But Bitcoin barely moved this week, hovering around 64,000.
The problem lies with the Coinbase premium. The Coinbase premium index has been negative for about 80 consecutive days. Institutional buying in the US is persistently absent; ETFs are buying, but spot market demand isn't keeping up. Some are entering through ETFs, while others are selling in the spot market. These two forces collide in the same price range, causing the price to stall.
ETF buying is being offset by spot selling. BlackRock is buying, but someone is selling, so the price doesn't move. After Friday's nonfarm payroll data release, ETFs continued to buy, but Bitcoin slid from 65,200 back to 64,900. Marginal utility is diminishing; incremental funds can't push the price anymore. $BTC Institutions are buying, retail investors are watching, and whales are quietly accumulating
This week, there's a signal even more worth pondering than the price itself — whales are quietly accumulating.
Data from August 8 shows that Bitcoin whales have cumulatively increased their holdings by 38,000 BTC.
38,000 BTC, at 64,000 per coin, amounts to 2.4 billion USD.
This wasn't bought in one day; it's a continuous, dispersed accumulation.
Big money is slowly absorbing, retail investors are watching, both sides are doing different things at the same price.
Leverage is also being amplified on the derivatives side. As of the week ending August 7, the average daily trading volume of Bitcoin futures reached 57.82 billion USD, while spot was only 6.08 billion. Futures volume is 7.82 times that of spot, hitting a record high. Capital is concentrating on the leveraged side, indicating market participants are not building positions in the spot market but betting on direction in the contract market. Spot demand has been weakening since June, while futures demand continues to grow. Retail investors are hesitant to take delivery in the spot market but are willing to increase leverage in the contract market.
Before the direction is clear, the higher the leverage piled up in the contract market, the larger the liquidation scale will be once the direction is confirmed. If it breaks upward, shorts will be squeezed hard; if it breaks downward, long liquidations will be severe. Coinglass data shows that if BTC falls below 61,658, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major platforms will reach 1.403 billion USD. Conversely, if it breaks above 67,994, short liquidation intensity will reach 1.216 billion.
The data is all here. Before the CPI on August 12, Bitcoin will most likely continue to consolidate in the 63,000-65,500 range. If it can't hold above 65,000, just keep waiting; if it breaks below 63,500, exit and reassess. Before the direction emerges, keep positions light, watch more and act less. $BTC