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$BTC $ETH The focus this time is not on guessing "insider information," but on whether large capital behavior has formed resonance.
If on-chain data shows large accounts continuously increasing BTC and ETH shorts at high levels, it at least indicates that some funds are hedging against the risk of a rally. But this position itself cannot prove there is definitely negative news, nor can it be directly assumed that they have insider information just because past judgments were accurate.
The biggest problem for BTC currently is the repeated pressure around 80,000; after consecutive rallies, the divergence between bulls and bears has clearly widened; ETH is also oscillating at high levels with stronger elasticity, and if BTC falls back, ETH often amplifies the volatility.
What is truly worth watching tonight is not some "insider account," but the spot trading, ETF funds, and price reaction to the 80,000 threshold after the U.S. stock market opens. If negative news appears but BTC does not fall, it actually indicates strong support; if there is a volume breakout below key support, then beware of bulls deleveraging.
So don't rush to short now, nor blindly go long. News is just a catalyst; price and volume are the final answers.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ PCE data basically meets expectations and actually has little impact, while the market is focusing on current oil prices and Powell's speech on Friday #Bitcoin #WTI
Powell's speech will indicate whether inflation is hawkish or dovish, and inflation depends on oil prices.
Currently, Iran says it has reached an agreement with Oman on the distribution of Strait revenues, and there is an expectation of navigation through the Strait, but the market is waiting for the US stance. If unclear, the market will worry, just like now, so the main focus is on Trump's attitude.
In the evening, oil prices began to rebound, now around 82.5. Before this post, CME's expectation for a September rate hike is above 40%, having increased. US stock indices opened lower, and #Bitcoin briefly fell below $785; the $785 level is very critical.
Before Friday, oil prices must not continue to decline below the 80-82 range. Powell's speech will definitely not be positive; it will be hawkish, and rate hike expectations will further increase. Under this background, both US stocks and Bitcoin cannot remain unaffected. Let alone expect Bitcoin to reverse into a bull run.
If oil prices continue to decline around 80, it can dispel the September rate hike expectations; Powell may not be very hawkish, but the possibility of dovishness is low. The market impact should be manageable. Then we look at August inflation data (released in September).
In summary, it still depends on Trump's attitude, which is the trend of oil prices.
In any case, personally, I think it is a bit difficult for Bitcoin to have a good bull rebound now. The best scenario is oscillation between 77-81.
Once rate hike expectations rise, market sentiment will start to seek safety again.
DYOROn August 27, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference officially opened, with the keynote speech by the new Federal Reserve Chairman Rush entering its countdown, and the crypto market entering a volatility-sensitive period. BTC fluctuated narrowly between $79,000 and $81,000, ETH traded between $2,430 and $2,530. While spot prices appeared calm, the derivatives market was already stirring beneath the surface. The pricing differences in the options market more clearly reflect capital's expectations for the two major leaders than spot market trends: BTC options are buying insurance, ETH options are betting on direction. Between stability and risk, the most genuine capital attitude during the policy window period is hidden. BTC's options market exhibits a typical "defensive allocation" characteristic, with funds buying insurance against uncertainty. Data shows that BTC options open interest has steadily climbed to a yearly high over the past week, with put options holding increasing from 38% at the start of the month to 44%, while the bull-put ratio fell from 1.7 to 1.3, indicating that after the price surged to $80,000, funds began actively increasing downside protection. Regarding implied volatility, BTC's 1-period implied volatility rose from 45% to 58%, but the 3-month implied volatility only increased from 52% to 56%, showing an inverted term structure of "high near and low long" — capital only priced in the short-term event of the Jackson Hole annual meeting, with no fundamental changes in expectations for medium- to long-term trends. More noteworthy is the volatility smile pattern. BTC options have a relatively mild volatility smile, with the 25delta put option and call option implied volatility difference only 3What truly deserves concern about tonight's US data is not that a single figure exceeded expectations, but that **'sticky inflation + resilience in demand' are both present. ** July PCE rose +0.2% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, both above the market expectation of 3.6%; Core PCE rose +0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, showing no further decline. Meanwhile, U.S. Q2 GDP held steady at 1.5%, consumption performance was revised upward, and durable goods orders in July grew by 1.1%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of about 0.5%. What does this data mean? It's not that the US economy is overheated, but that the economy is not weak enough to force the Fed to pivot rapidly. Inflation remains significantly above the 2% target, and consumer and manufacturing demand have not collapsed significantly, so the cost of maintaining high interest rates for the Fed is not as high as the market previously imagined. After the data was released, the market priced in a 25BP rate hike in September rose to about 40%, the dollar strengthened, and US Treasury yields also rose. Gold was the first to come under pressure, with spot gold once falling about 1%. The logic is straightforward: rising real interest rate expectations → a stronger dollar→ higher opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing assets→ putting short-term pressure on gold. But this does not mean gold's long-term logic is reversing. Geopolitical risks, fiscal deficits, and central bank allocation demand still exist; it's just that short-term "rate cut trades" need to cool down. Now, chasing gold is clearly less favorable than before. BTC and ETH are no exception. BTC previously quickly broke through $80,000 from over $60,000, driven by ETF buying, a weaker dollar, and large-scale short covering, but# US $40 Trillion Debt: Why BTC Surges and ETH Looks Promising?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The US federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion. The market is not truly trading on "US bankruptcy," but rather on fiscal deficits, the purchasing power of the dollar, and global liquidity.
### Why is BTC rising?
US debt increases → fiscal pressure intensifies → market worries about long-term dollar purchasing power → capital seeks scarce assets
Gold and BTC have therefore attracted attention.
Additionally, BTC spot ETFs continue to draw institutional funds, transforming BTC from a retail speculative asset into an institutional allocation asset.
BTC core logic: digital gold + scarce asset + institutional allocation.
### Why is ETH promising?
ETH's main logic has shifted from simply "public chain upgrades" to:
Stablecoins → RWA → DeFi → on-chain finance
More and more traditional financial assets will enter the blockchain in the future, and Ethereum is expected to become an important financial settlement infrastructure.
At the same time, ETH ETF funds continue to increase. If BTC leads the rise and enters a stable phase, capital may further flow from:
BTC → ETH → SOL → altcoins
forming a catch-up rally.
### The three most important future themes
BTC: US debt, dollar credit, institutional allocation
ETH: stablecoins, RWA, on-chain finance
SOL: high Beta public chain, ecosystem growth
### Core judgment
> BTC trades "monetary credit," while ETH bets on "financial on-chain."
If the future sees a weaker dollar + improved liquidity + continuous ETF inflows + rapid growth of stablecoins/RWA, then BTC is expected to maintain its core asset status, while ETH may become an important catch-up asset in the latter half of this market cycle.Reviewing the recent sharp rise in Bitcoin, the following are just my personal views: From August 17 to August 21, during these five trading days, spot ETFs saw some considerable inflows: BTC ETF: increased by $1.92 billion; ETH ETF: increased by $692.6 million; total: increased by $2.61 billion. The largest inflow was on August 20th, Valentine's Day night! At that time, BTC spot ETFs alone brought in about $606 million in inflows. And these spot ETFs continued to flow into the market. This is usually more appealing than moves driven mainly by leverage! Obviously, spot ETF inflows alone do not guarantee sustained price increases. But if this spot demand continues, it would be a very positive signal for the market! On August 24, the first trading day, Bitcoin broke through to 80,000, but was still just a bit short. By August 25, the second trading day, Bitcoin broke through 81,000. This is obviously major news, but I think what happens after the breakout is more interesting than the breakout itself! Last week's trading day, the inflow of large spot ETFs drove Bitcoin's sustained surge! But this week's rapid rise, I personally believe, was largely driven by the squeeze of bears. Since then, Bitcoin has actually been rising continuously rather than pulling back immediately. This has allowed us to see a market different from a week ago. A recent market report from MEXCNVIDIA NVDA Earnings Preview
The Q2 FY2027 earnings report will be released after the market closes tonight Beijing time.
Market consensus expectations: revenue of $92 billion, EPS of $2.09, data center business over $8.54 billion.
Three key highlights
1. Blackwell chip shipments and gross margin
Watch the delivery progress of the new chip and whether the gross margin can hold near 75%, which is a hard indicator of AI computing power market health.
2. Next quarter revenue guidance (most important)
Market private expectations have already risen above $103 billion. Merely meeting the public expectations could easily lead to "buy the rumor, sell the fact," repeating the historical curse of post-earnings declines.
3. Customer capital expenditure signals
Observe cloud providers' purchasing willingness to judge whether the AI capital expansion cycle can continue to accelerate.
Impact on major asset classes
1. Exceeding expectations: US tech stocks strengthen, risk appetite rises, indirectly benefiting crypto;
2. Meeting expectations: likely leads to profit-taking and pullback;
3. Below expectations: could drag down the entire AI chain, putting risk assets under collective pressure. $NVDA $BTC has rebounded from the low point to around 79,000, and the market has started to show some positive changes, but it cannot yet be simply understood as a full return of funds. On-chain data shows that the realized market cap relative change has turned positive again, and the 30-day apparent demand has exceeded new issuance for several consecutive days, indicating that the market has at least shifted from "continuous withdrawal" to "beginning to absorb chips."
However, the problem is that demand intensity is still not high. The cessation of fund outflows and large-scale fund inflows are two completely different stages, so this rebound currently looks more like structural repair and still requires subsequent trading volume and spot funds to continue confirming.
Additionally, ETH whales transferring long-term positions into exchanges also indicates that some large funds are beginning to actively reduce risk. The behavior of a single address cannot represent the entire market, but during a high-level consolidation phase, such actions are indeed worth paying attention to.
More importantly, about $6.4 billion in BTC options expire on Friday. Around large-scale option expirations, market makers' hedging may amplify short-term volatility, causing prices to repeatedly tug around key strike prices, even resulting in upper and lower wicks.
If on-chain demand continues to expand and ETF and spot trading improve simultaneously, BTC will have a chance to challenge above 80,000 again; otherwise, if demand weakens again, the current rebound is likely to turn into a high-level consolidation.
In short: this wave wins because the direction has begun to repair, but loses because the capital strength is still insufficient. The real test will be after Friday.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ At 4 a.m., global markets will once again focus on the AI core asset—NVIDIA's earnings report.
This time, investors are concerned not just about whether the "performance can continue to explode," but about how long the AI supercycle can actually last.
The market expects NVIDIA's revenue this quarter to reach about $92 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year, with the data center business remaining the largest growth engine. But for a company with such a huge market cap, simply delivering a strong earnings report may no longer be enough to push the stock price higher.
Because what the market is trading on now is not just past profits, but AI expectations for the coming years.
There are several key points that truly determine the market direction:
First, whether AI demand can maintain high-speed growth.
Over the past two years, cloud providers and tech giants have continuously increased investment in AI infrastructure, with NVIDIA GPUs becoming the core of computing power competition. But the market is starting to focus on one question: when will these huge investments truly convert into commercial returns? If AI capital expenditure growth slows, even if NVIDIA's short-term performance is excellent, it may face valuation pressure.
Second, the next phase growth story.
Whether Blackwell and subsequent AI architectures can scale smoothly will determine if NVIDIA can continue to maintain its leading edge. Investors want to hear not just "orders are good," but whether capacity, supply chain, and customer demand will remain strong in the coming quarters.
Third, attention to hidden market risks.
Recently, discussions about "internal cycle investment in the AI industry chain" have heated up, with some funds worried whether financing and procurement models in the AI ecosystem might amplify demand expectations. Additionally, power supply, data center construction speed, and chip competition landscape are becoming issues that must be resolved in the next phase of the AI boom.
Therefore, the biggest highlight of this earnings report is not whether NVIDIA can exceed expectations again, but whether management can give the market a stronger signal:
The AI wave is still accelerating, not nearing its peak.
If NVIDIA's future guidance continues to exceed market expectations, it could reignite sentiment across the entire AI sector; but if it only meets expectations, in the current high valuation environment, it might instead lead to "good news being priced in."
Simply put:
In the past, the market bought NVIDIA's performance growth;
Now, the market is buying how long the AI era can last.
This earnings report is not just a report card for NVIDIA, but an important stress test as the AI bull market enters its next phase
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #After Yushu's listing, continuous decline, how to price the valuation?
As the spotlight shifts, funds flow back to mainstream coins seeking certainty. XRP fell 6.7% yesterday, now at 1.3727. The 1-hour chart approaches a short-term low, but the 4-hour level remains in an upward channel, down -12.20% from the high, the mid-term bullish pattern remains intact. Order book buy orders 5327 significantly exceed sell orders 3279, buyers dominate, short-term downward momentum may be limited.
Key support at 1.3500, resistance at 1.4100.
Trading ideas:
1. Aggressive traders try long at 1.3550, stop loss at 1.3400, target 1.4050.
2. Conservative traders wait to hold above 1.3850 before chasing, enter if pullback to 1.3700 does not break.
Risk points: funding rate 0.0100% slightly positive, open interest 78.21 million, crowded longs, if 1.3500 breaks easily accelerates downward.
—For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading.—
#After Yushu's listing, continuous decline, how to price the valuation?
$XRP Tonight's PCE report does the best job of letting both bulls and bears each take half the data to celebrate. Core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, month-over-month 0.2%, exactly as expected. Bulls see that inflation hasn't continued to accelerate, while bears focus on the fact that 3.3% is still far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target; the Q2 GDP revision is only 1.5%, indicating the economy isn't strong enough to allow for easy rate hikes, nor weak enough to require an immediate pivot. So after theIs the much-anticipated altcoin season really arriving just because $BTC touched the 80,000 mark?
If we only look at the technical charts, there is indeed a kind of "all-around bull rebound" euphoria:
In the past month, among the top 100 tokens by market cap, as many as 80% have climbed back above the 50-day moving average; within a few days, the total market cap of altcoins increased by more than 200 billion USD.
But unlike the previous altcoin season driven by capital overflow, this time it feels more like a vampiric recovery triggered by BTC.
Although altcoins are broadly rising, the real dominance has not changed hands at all. Coinmarket Cap's altcoin season index shows that BTC's market share remains high, around 60%.
Looking at a 90-day period, the vast majority of altcoins still underperform Bitcoin.
So in this bull rebound, which altcoins are outperforming? Observing closely, capital is extremely selective, creating "localized structural bulls."
The bull market still has a long way to go; everyone, hold on tight to your wallets $BTC $ETH A prior disclaimer is necessary: Bitcoin belongs to virtual currency. Our country clearly states that virtual currency trading is an illegal financial activity. Prices are unregulated and extremely volatile. All losses incurred from participation in trading are borne by the individual. The following is only an objective logical deduction of the market situation and does not constitute any trading advice.
BTC (Big Cake) Evening Market Analysis (about 490 words)
Whether it can stand above $82,000 tonight depends on the momentum of funds and the effectiveness of breaking through resistance levels. The current market is in a high-level oscillation range after a rebound. 82,000 is a strong resistance point, with a large accumulation of previous trapped positions and option exercise chips above. It is not easy to break through directly in one go.
From a technical perspective, the bullish force has been somewhat exhausted after the recent rebound. Short-term indicators show dullness, and there is a need for a pullback after the surge to digest. If incremental buying continues to enter tonight, spot ETF funds maintain inflows, and leveraged bulls push, there is a chance to test the area near 82,000. However, the first touch will most likely encounter selling pressure, making a false breakout with a surge followed by a fall likely. Conversely, if buying power fades and bears start to exert strength, the price will first fall back to test key support below. Once support is lost, a deep correction will begin.
From a macro sentiment perspective, the market is highly focused on overseas liquidity expectations. Any related news will amplify price fluctuations. The risk of liquidation in the leveraged market is extremely high. Sharp rises and falls in a short time are normal. From a probability standpoint, the chance of standing firmly above 82,000 tonight is low, mostly oscillating and testing; even if the price briefly breaks through this level, it does not mean a stable hold, requiring continuous volume confirmation.
Overall, the evening market will mainly be a battle of oscillation, with 82,000 as an important watershed. Virtual currencies have no price limits and are greatly influenced by contract leverage, news, and large capital manipulation. No prediction can guarantee accuracy. Leveraged trading is prone to large liquidations. Extreme caution is necessary, and speculation is not recommended.
The above is only a logical deduction and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Virtual currency trading and speculation are prohibited domestically, and all risks are borne by the individual.Altcoin Season Suspense
After Bitcoin broke through $80,000, the market's most pressing question naturally is: Will altcoin season come?
The market narrative for the first half of 2026 has already provided clues. AI, RWA (Real-World Asset tokenization), and DePIN are the three most discussed sectors on CT. Interestingly, the discussion heat does not match the trading volume—RWA accounts for about 5% of spot trading volume, AI accounts for 3%-4%, and DePIN has not exceeded 1% throughout the first half of the year.
New Fire Research Institute believes the market may be driven by three forces: the reallocation demand after funds withdraw from the crowded AI investment theme, compliant institutional funds entering after regulatory clarity, and cross-asset trading connections brought by the tokenization of traditional financial assets.
Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade is also worth attention. As the largest hard fork since the 2022 Merge, Glamsterdam is scheduled to launch on the mainnet in Q4 2026. The upgrade will significantly reduce Gas costs and improve throughput. The testnet fork was conducted on August 20. If the upgrade goes smoothly, Layer 2 and the entire Ethereum ecosystem may usher in a new round of narrative catalysts.
However, it is important to be cautious that the market logic in 2026 is completely different from the previous two cycles. The infrastructure super cycle will shift institutional focus to utility-driven sectors—this means tokens relying purely on narrative hype may no longer enjoy the premiums they once did. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ $ETH $BTC $SOL After Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000 and Ethereum returned above $2,500, the market did not choose to act all at once, but quickly entered a round of profit-taking tugs. Prices retreated from recent highs, and short-term sentiment shifted from frenzy to caution. However, a closer look at the performance of funds reveals that this pullback feels more like a healthy high-level turnover rather than a signal 🍃 of the end of the trend. Over the past week, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted about $1.92 billion in net inflows, while Ethereum spot ETFs recorded about $697 million in inflows, both setting the strongest weekly records so far this year. This set of data has remained resilient even after price spikes and pullbacks, indicating that institutional funds have not rushed out due to short-term volatility; instead, they have shown willingness to take on the correction during the correction, serving as an important window to gauge whether the market is truly weakening. From the perspective of rhythm, this round of rally itself is strongly driven by sentiment. After the price quickly breaks through the key round number, some early holders choose to cash in, marking a typical profit-taking phase in a strong market. The core market suspense right now is whether ETF funds can maintain the current inflow pace when Bitcoin pushes back to the $79,000 to $80,000 range. If the support continues, this round of consolidation is very likely to build momentum for the next phase; Conversely, if capital inflows clearly slow, one should be wary of the risk 📊 of prolonged pullback periods. For ordinary participants, rather than fixating on short-term price fluctuations, it is better to focus more on the sustainability and stability of capital flows. Number of ETF inflows$ETH $SOL $DOGE
Short-term oscillation and pullback.
Updated 15-minute key price levels (USDT)
‑ Short-term resistance: 2470‑2490
‑ First support: 2390‑2410
‑ Strong support: 2345‑2360
🟢 Long (do not bottom-fish at current price, wait for confirmation)
1. Entry conditions: Retrace to 2390‑2410 support, 15-minute candle closes with a stop in the decline and no new lows, MACD low-level golden cross, light position test long; after volume confirms holding above 2490, retrace and go long again.
2. Stop loss
- Retracement long: stop loss below 2380
- Breakout long: stop loss below 2450
3. Take profit: first target 2470‑2490; if breakout, target around 2530, reduce position in batches.
🔴 Short
1. Entry conditions: rebound to 2470‑2490 resistance zone, 15-minute long upper shadow, bearish divergence, if it can’t break higher, open short.
2. Stop loss: above 2505
3. Take profit: first target 2410‑2390; if broken, target around 2360, close position in parts.
⚪ Current price range 2410‑2470
No new positions, prioritize observation, follow BTC fluctuations, frequent small cycle spikes, wait for clear breakout/breakdown of the range before acting.
📜 Trading discipline
1. Leverage recommended 2‑4x, avoid high leverage.
2. When BTC fluctuates violently, abandon 15-minute trading directly.
3. Always set stop loss when opening a position, do not hold losing positions or add to losing positions.
4. Stop trading for the day after 2 consecutive losses. Impact of Nvidia's Earnings Report on the Crypto Market
1. Major Mainstream Coins (Indirectly Linked, Moderate Volatility)
1. $BTC Big Coin
Driven by overall risk appetite. Nvidia exceeding expectations causes a short-term slight surge; if below expectations, it will test the 75000 support level. However, BTC has a strong institutional spot base and relatively restrained volatility, so the earnings report will not change BTC's mid-term major trend.
2. $ETH Second Coin
More sensitive than BTC. When tech stocks plunge, ETH retraces deeper; when risk appetite recovers, the rebound is stronger, and contract market volatility amplifies.
2. AI Computing Power Narrative Coins (Most Affected, Strongest Volatility) [Key Focus on Earnings Night]
• $RNDR (Render Token): Decentralized GPU computing power rental, deeply tied to Nvidia hardware narrative. Earnings results often cause ±10-20% swings within 24 hours.
• $TAO (Bittensor): Decentralized AI training network, leader in AI sector, high beta, with sharp volatility upon news release.
• $FET: ASI alliance AI agent sector, AI hotspot sentiment token, showing clear pulse-like rises and falls.
• $VIRTUAL: AI agent sector, smaller cap with greater elasticity.
3. $SOL
A high beta public chain with many AI and MEME tokens on-chain. It rises with increased market risk appetite; heavy selling pressure during US stock market drops, with volatility greater than BTC and close to AI concept coins.
4. Platform Token $OKB and Stablecoin USDT
Almost unaffected by Nvidia's earnings report; platform tokens follow their own buyback and exchange business logic; stablecoin prices remain pegged.
Performance of Various Coins Under Three Scenarios
1) Strongly Exceeding Expectations: AI computing power coins > SOL > ETH > BTC; AI altcoins collectively active.
2) Just Meeting Expectations (Most Likely): Buy the rumor, sell the fact. US stocks surge then fall; AI concept coins drop first, ETH and SOL follow with corrections, BTC relatively resilient.
3) Below Expectations: AI computing power coins crash, SOL and ETH deeply correct, BTC tests key support, contract longs face cascading liquidations.
Key Market Reminders
1. All are short-term sentiment pulses that do not change the coins' mid-term trends; most revert to original trends after the pulse.
2. AI small-cap coins have poor liquidity and large slippage; high leverage trading is not suitable on earnings night.
3. How to judge real vs fake rallies: AI coin price rises need spot volume to increase simultaneously; if only contract volume rises, it is usually a short-term spike that quickly falls back.
Summary in One Sentence: AI computing power tokens are hit the hardest, followed by SOL and ETH, BTC is relatively resilient; platform tokens are basically immune to this earnings report disturbance.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $SOL has gained about 40% over eight days, but profit-taking occurred after breaking above the 100-dollar mark. ETF funds and on-chain activity still support the trend. The new inflation proposal aims to gradually reduce staking yields, with supply contraction expectations leaning bullish; in the short term, focus on whether the pullback after the breakout can stabilize with reduced volume. If volume-price divergence widens, chasing the rally is not advisable.
$DOGE clearly benefits from the market's increased risk appetite, but this round of momentum is still mainly driven by capital rotation and sentiment. After consecutive sharp rallies, volatility rises. If BTC consolidates at high levels, DOGE is prone to enter a highly elastic consolidation; waiting for a pullback to find support or a volume breakout is safer than chasing long bullish candles.
$XRP has risen about 45% in the past week, with significant warming of XRPL on-chain activity and rapid recovery of capital attention. However, the increase in network activity has not been accompanied by new user growth, indicating the current rise still has a strong trading attribute; in the short term, observe whether volume contracts during pullbacks, as a stable structure is conducive to continued catch-up gains.
$HYPE is relatively resistant when mainstream coins fall. AQAv2 uses part of its USDC reserve yields for buybacks, strengthening fundamental support; $BOME remains a highly volatile Meme asset, mainly driven by sentiment rotation when lacking sustained catalysts; $TRUMP continues to be driven by the CLARITY Act and political news, with high event sensitivity. All three should control positions and avoid chasing highs.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 Tonight, the macro data has just been released, which is overall slightly bearish for crypto assets rather than a trend bearish: US July PCE month-on-month +0.2%, year-on-year 3.7%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.6%; core PCE month-on-month +0.2%, year-on-year 3.3%, basically in line with expectations, Q2 GDP annualized growth 1.5%. This means inflation remains quite sticky, which is unfavorable for the market to further bet on easing in the short term. Therefore, tonight BTC/ETH is more likely to first consolidate and digest rather than immediately start a second round of vertical surge. Crude oil prices have rebounded in the short term, mainly because the current situation between the US and Iran has entered a "delicate" phase, and the market is beginning to worry that the US-Iran situation is shifting from optimism back to tension.
Currently, the US demands are simple: resume negotiations + reopen the Strait of Hormuz, simultaneously.
As for Iran, from establishing a new strait agreement, to determining the route map, to today's preliminary route confirmation, and then starting discussions with Oman on how to divide the benefits, step by step, pressing forward. From Trump's perspective, this is like adding insult to injury.
Once Iran and Oman complete the entire strait agreement, confirm the new route, and start charging fees and dividing benefits, the sovereignty of the strait will basically be taken over by Iran and Oman. Iran will no longer just have political significance over the strait but will have actual control and regulation over it.
Faced with these conditions, the market does not believe that the US or Trump can accept them, so Iran's step-by-step pressure is causing market panic, as this challenges the nerves of Trump and the US.
Although Munir has reopened a 60-day negotiation window between the US and Iran, Iran's nominal conditions are becoming increasingly stringent, and it is accelerating control over the strait. This clearly increases US-Iran tensions rather than moving toward an optimistic situation.
Surprisingly, Trump's reaction was simply to say that negotiations are not urgent, which can be seen as cooling down Munir's 60-day negotiation window. The absence of an angry Trump is indeed unexpected.
Currently, the market's concern remains about Iran's step-by-step pressure and the US's yet-to-be-stated position. It is only worry, not a return to panic! #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Market is expected to pull back; bottom-fishing can be observed cautiously.
According to OKX market data, $BTC is quoted at $78,049, down 1.71% in 24H.
$ETH is quoted at $2,449, down 1.17%.
$SOL is quoted at $96.06, down 2.06%.
$HYPE is quoted at $80.75, down 0.31%.
$OKB is quoted at $110.79, down 3.21%.
Total market cap has dropped to $2.63 trillion, with 485 up and 706 down;
PayFi down 5.79%, NFT down 4.54%, SocialFi down 4.15%, the pullback has spread to high-volatility sectors.
However, net inflows into spot ETFs for BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE are $314 million, $180 million, $32.25 million, and $7.51 million respectively, with IBIT contributing $284 million, indicating that long-term funds have not withdrawn, only short-term traders are reducing risk.
On the news front, the SEC has submitted new digital asset custody regulations to the White House OMB for review; if implemented, the compliance path will be clearer, which is a substantial positive.
But there is also a hidden negative: MSCI plans to exclude companies mainly relying on asset accumulation rather than operations.
If Strategy is removed from the index, passive fund demand and the financing flywheel of bond issuance to buy coins could be pressured.
The market is indeed expected to pull back; this is a chip revaluation after deleveraging, so bottom-fishing can be observed further.
If $77,500 is breached, short-term selling pressure will continue to intensify. $NVDA Nvidia Earnings Analysis
1. Market Expectation Baseline (Passing Line, Surprise Line, Negative Line)
1. Revenue: Consensus expectation is $92.2 billion; institutional whispers optimistic at $94-95 billion, only above $94 billion counts as a true beat.
2. EPS: Expected $2.09 per share.
3. Gross Margin: Market expects to hold 74.5-75%; if gross margin falls below 74%, it will be seen as a major negative, with HBM memory price hikes as the main threat.
4. Most important: Q3 guidance
• Passing expectation: $103-104 billion
• Surprise beat: ≥$105 billion, which will stimulate a collective rally in the AI sector
• Negative signal: Guidance below $102 billion, AI sector under pressure and correction
2. Four Core Observation Points
1. Data Center Business (accounts for 94% of total revenue)
Almost all growth comes from AI computing power; gaming business is a small portion. Focus on orders from cloud providers + enterprise sovereign AI customers; if enterprise demand continues high growth, it means AI demand is not just from big companies, indicating industry prosperity continues.
2. Gross Margin Changes
HBM memory price hikes squeeze costs; if gross margin holds at 75%, it proves Nvidia’s strong ability to pass costs downstream; margin decline means cost pressure starts eroding profits, compressing valuation.
3. Rubin Next-Gen Chip Progress (key focus of the call)
Blackwell chip capacity is currently saturated; Rubin is the next growth engine, market watches ramp-up timing and customer orders. If management gives an optimistic Rubin timeline, it will open up long-term valuation; conservative statements will raise concerns about AI growth peaking.
4. Buyback and Capital Expenditure Guidance
Whether stock buybacks increase; whether capital expenditure continues to rise significantly, indicating confidence in future demand.
3. Three Scenario Simulations
Scenario 1: Strong Beat (Revenue ≥ $94 billion, Q3 guidance ≥ $105 billion, Gross Margin 75%+)
✅ Post-market volume surge. US AI and storage stocks (Hynix, SanDisk) strengthen; risk appetite rises, driving BTC, ETH short-term spike.
But beware: short-term pulse, if no follow-up funds, spike likely to retreat.
Scenario 2: Just Meets Consensus $92 billion (most probable)
⚠️ Neutral to slightly negative. Although results look good, below institutional whispers, triggering profit-taking. Post-market spike then fall or direct drop, AI sector correction, crypto market under pressure, BTC tests 75000 support.
Scenario 3: Misses Expectations (Revenue < $91 billion, Q3 guidance < $102 billion, Gross Margin decline)
❌ Clear negative. US AI stocks cut valuation collectively, storage sector plunges; global risk assets sold off, crypto sees concentrated long liquidations, BTC and ETH volatility increases.
4. Volume and Market Signal
1. After earnings, if volume surges but price oscillates, it means intense battle with no trend;
2. Volume-driven one-sided rise with AI and storage sectors strengthening simultaneously is a valid positive;
3. Good data but volume-driven decline is typical profit-taking.
5. Transmission Logic to Storage Sector (Hynix, SanDisk)
Nvidia’s high prosperity directly drives HBM and NAND flash demand.
• Earnings beat: Hynix and SanDisk sentiment boosted;
• Earnings miss: market worries about AI computing capital expenditure contraction, storage stocks directly pressured.
6. Transmission to Crypto Market
Nvidia has no business dealings with crypto, only linked through global risk appetite. $ETH and AI-related altcoins are far more sensitive than $BTC. Earnings only cause short-term volatility, won’t change BTC and ETH mid-term trends.
Summary: This earnings report is not about looking good or bad, but whether it can break through higher institutional whispers; just meeting expectations easily leads to profit-taking and decline.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 The third layer: the real inflow of ETF funds.
This is not purely a leverage game. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.92 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow since October 2025. On August 24, there was another net inflow of about $129 million. Meanwhile, the exchange's Bitcoin balance decreased by about 17,300 coins — indicating that real spot buying has appeared in the later stage of the rebound.
Forced liquidations did amplify the gains, but unlike a pure short squeeze, this rise was accompanied by genuine spot capital inflows. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $ZRO is one of the few alts ignoring the red market, up ~50% this week and holding near highs. 👀
The market may be repricing LayerZero’s ATLAS thesis: infrastructure for exchanges to run spot, perps, stocks, bonds & prediction markets.
ATLAS launches later this year, so this is still a bet on future volume. If adoption hits, $ZRO could become a toll booth on global trading. 🚀
#PCEToJacksonHole #BTC80KHoldOrFold #AIEarningsWatch 1. ETFs are still buying, old chips are also selling. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for the sixth consecutive trading day, with a six-day total exceeding $2.5 billion. But after BTC surged to $81,000, it returned to around $78,000, indicating institutional buying is real, though there is also considerable profit-taking above. ETF inflows don't mean the price can only rise; it's more like buyers continuously buying stocks. 2. Sudden $4.3 billion "bullet" on-chain In the past week, USDT supply increased by about $2.2 billion, USDC by $1.8 billion, and RLUSD by $300 million. Funds have returned to the chain, but not all coins may be bought for now. Stablecoin issuance is more like money entering an account; when orders will be placed remains to be seen. 3. MicroStrategy hasn't been buying BTC aggressively recently, but is stacking cash first. Strategy currently holds about $6.69 billion in USD assets, which is very close to the $6.75 billion convertible bond scale. The company has also prepared a $1.59 billion cash pool, which can be used to buy BTC, pay dividends, buy back stocks, or repay debt. It may look like a pause in attack, but it's more like preparing defenses first. 4. X is preparing to add a cryptocurrency trading button. X's Cashtags can already display SOL and ETH prices in posts and identify some token contract addresses. A former product lead revealed that the trading button is currently being prepared. Note: So far, only the product direction has been confirmed; the specific launch date, partner platforms, fees, and custody methods have not been announced. Don't assume "coming soon" means it is already tradable$SNDK is currently priced around 1500, with storage chips collectively moving pre-market; Hynix, SanDisk, and Western Digital all rose over 3%.
Jane Street's holdings surged 540% in Q2, jumping from 1.16 million shares directly to 7.41 million shares. SanDisk is now their second-largest holding, only behind SPY. When a market maker of this caliber pushes a single stock position to this level, the signal is worth considering.
The performance is indeed explosive: fiscal year 2026 revenue is 20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company is 11.433 billion, up 796%. Data center business revenue grew 437% year-over-year to 5.15 billion. They have already signed 8 long-term supply agreements guaranteeing a minimum revenue of 93.9 billion. JPMorgan's target price is 2250, Bank of America’s is 2500, and the current stock price still has about 36% room to the historical high.
There’s also something new on-chain: Ondo Perps just added SanDisk tokenized stock as eligible collateral for perpetual contracts today, so holding tokenized stock can be directly used as leveraged collateral.
But honestly, this stock has risen over 3000% in the past 12 months, with volatility at 141%, so play with a light position.
I personally placed a small observation order near 1500 with a stop loss at 1440 and a first target of 1550-1580. Storage chip sentiment is still there, Jane Street’s position remains, and new on-chain mechanics have just unlocked, so it should still have some short-term upside. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ A true BTC bull market needs rising demand + falling supply. 2021 had both. In 2024, ETF/institutional demand was absorbed by heavy OG whale selling and >100K $BTC in Mt. Gox distributions, creating Wyckoff-like distribution above $100K. When demand weakened amid AI competition and the Iran/commodity shock, BTC had to reset quickly. Now, renewed institutional demand + monetary easing could make this mid-cycle correction rocket fuel. 📈 Weak hands get shaken out, BTC concentrates in stronger hanEarly morning
Today, BTC and ETH surged but met resistance, with selling pressure concentrated above leading to a pullback. BTC peaked at 79563 before steadily declining to a low of 77632; ETH surged to 2485 then fell under pressure to a low of 2432. Both major coins weakened simultaneously, bulls lacked momentum to push higher, short-term sentiment shifted, prioritizing short-term rebound short positions. The long-term bullish structure has not collapsed directly, but the short-term has entered a correction phase.
Looking first at the 4-hour level: BTC and ETH prices have fallen below the MA7 and MA25 short-term moving averages, which now act as resistance above. Although the strong support at MA99 still holds, the overall trend has not fully reversed yet, but the short-term upward momentum has broken, and the market is in a correction phase. As long as rebounds fail to break through short-term moving average resistance, bears will continue to dominate.
Next, at the 1-hour level: the downtrend is very clear, with lower highs continuously forming, and each small rebound is weak. Short-term moving averages tightly press above the price, making rebounds opportunities to short. Currently, there is no sign of a bottom or stabilization, so do not blindly try to catch the bottom; prioritize waiting for price to rebound into resistance zones before entering short positions.
Early morning trading advice: focus on shorting rebounds
$BTC: watch the 78300-78700 area targeting the 77300-77600 area
$ETH: watch the 2460-2470 area targeting the 2420-2430 area
$SOL The market sentiment these days is really quite obvious: although the US stock market overall closed higher, it was quite restrained, with the three major indices rising slightly—Dow up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.32%, Nasdaq up 0.66%. Most are waiting for tonight's Nvidia earnings report and the Fed Chair's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. The long-term US Treasury yields have actually fallen, with the 10-year dropping to 4.625%, giving tech stocks some breathing room. Nvidia ended its seven-day losing streak with a 2% gain, but the market overall is still in a "waiting for news" mode.
On the other hand, the crypto market is bustling. Bitcoin surged past $81,000 yesterday, hitting a new high since May, climbing from around $64,000 at the beginning of the month—a rise of over 27% in just two weeks. Ethereum's performance is even more dramatic, jumping from just over $1,900 on August 18 to above $2,500 in a few days, an increase of over 30%, completely dominating the scene.
Why the sudden frenzy? On one hand, the Treasury suddenly announced an expansion of the long-term bond repurchase program, significantly improving market liquidity expectations, and the decline in long-term rates directly benefits risk assets. On the other hand, the SEC released new regulatory proposals for crypto assets, opening the door for compliant financing and reducing regulatory uncertainty. Additionally, the Bitcoin spot ETF attracted about $1.6 billion in funds in just four days, and a large number of short positions in the derivatives market were forcibly liquidated, creating a short squeeze effect that pushed prices even higher. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ The biggest gambler in crypto is back in the field, but this time he's betting in a direction you might not think you imagine. While the whole internet is shouting "Don't touch the leverage," why do the most contract-savvy people push their positions to the edge of the liquidation line? I stared at the legendary actor's holding address for half an hour, and honestly, I felt a bit uneasy. A $1.29 million pure long position, 40x BTC leverage, 25x ETH, and even high-volatility knockoffs like HYPE and PUMP dared to go all-in. Such an operation would be suicidal in any trading textbook. But from another perspective, this actually exposes the most genuine underlying sentiment in the current market. On the surface, everyone is waiting for a pullback and shouting for risk control. But what is the real smart money doing? They are betting with real money, betting that this round of the market isn't over yet. This signal is more worth pondering than any candlestick pattern. - The leverage structure reveals a key message: funds are willing to take extreme risks, indicating market sentiment is far from panic distribution — if even the most cautious players start to leverage, it often means there is a second wave, not a top—but on the flip side, when leverage generally hits the red warning line, any slight movement could trigger a chain liquidation. I noticed a detail most people overlooked: in this actor's position structure, altcoins have a significantly higher proportion than mainstream coins. What does this indicate? It indicates that funds are spreading from BTC and ETH toward high-beta assets, and risk appetite is on an upward channel. Cross-market linkage logicBitcoin's strong performance over the past two days has caused many friends to start swinging 😌 their holding mindset again. There are indeed cautious voices in the market, and some technical indicators have turned yellow, but what I want to remind more at this moment is: don't rush to short the market. From a technical perspective, the RSI (14) has entered the overbought zone, and the MACD has shown signs of a high death cross. These signals usually indicate short-term pullback pressure in textbooks. But technical indicators are never isolated; overbought often lasts a long time in a strong trend and even becomes the norm. The current overall environment is clearly still in the embrace of the trend. More noteworthy is the warm wind 🌤️ at the macro level. The U.S. Treasury doubled its long-term Treasury repurchase scale directly from $2 billion to $4 billion, sending a clear liquidity signal. Meanwhile, Trump met with crypto industry leaders at the White House and is pushing forward the legislative process for the Clarity Act. With policy and capital efforts working simultaneously, the market's excitement is clearly far from over. Against this backdrop, recklessly shorting against the trend is like trying to jump off a train while it is speeding—the risk-reward ratio is not cost-effective. Even if there is a technical correction in the short term, it does not mean a trend has reversed. For ordinary investors, rather than guessing at the top, it's better to respect the momentum of the trend and let the bullets fly a little longer. Of course, the market is always full of uncertainty, and any judgment must be based on one's own risk tolerance. A pullback may be delayed, but it will never be absent; it's just that the position and manner of its appearance often exceed what most people thinkThe market on August 25 was not simply rising or falling, but rather:
BTC pulled back after breaking through $80,000;
ETFs continued to see inflows;
Long and short liquidations exceeded $500 million;
Mainstream altcoins generally cooled down;
A few coins like INJ, POL, and XMR strengthened against the trend.
The Fear and Greed Index has reached 74, and this week there are US PCE, GDP, and employment data releases.
The trend is still bullish, but sentiment and leverage are already high. Spot can wait for a pullback, and contracts should not bet all principal on a single market move. Can the $ETH 2414 support level really hold? 🤔
After dropping from 2475, the price has been hovering around 2450 for almost a whole day.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, MA5 has crossed below MA10, indicating a short-term bearish trend.
The MA20 to MA120 on the upside are all pressing within the narrow range of 2454–2460, so the price has to break through layer by layer, which is quite challenging.
However, the intraday low at 2414 has been tested twice without breaking, indicating buying support at this level.
The current situation is delicate: bears have the trend advantage, but bulls have support to catch the fall.
The key is whether the 2414–2440 support zone can hold.
If it breaks below 2414, the downside space opens up, possibly going to 2400 or even lower.
If it holds, the rebound will first target 2460, and if it stabilizes there, then 2475.
Don't rush to take sides in the short term; wait for a clear direction before acting. Entering now is just a gamble.🔥 $BTC PULLS BACK — BUT INSTITUTIONS AREN’T LEAVING
$BTC is cooling around $78K after failing to hold $80K, while $ETH remains above $2.4K.
The bigger signal is the flow data.
On Aug. 25, spot BTC ETFs saw ~$314.3M in net inflows, while ETH ETFs added ~$179.8M.
The prior week brought another ~$1.92B into BTC ETFs and ~$697M into ETH ETFs.
A pullback can shake out leverage. Persistent institutional buying suggests the bigger trend may still have support.
Watch price. Watch flows
$BTC $ETHOn Friday, $6.4 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire! The most "gambling" day on the entire network is coming
81,700 Bitcoin options contracts expire on Deribit, with a notional value of $6.4 billion, accounting for nearly 20% of the exchange's open interest in Bitcoin options.
All year round, it's hard to find a bigger single-day gambling liquidation scene than this.
First, let's look at the bullish and bearish forces: 44,639 call options, 37,061 put options, put/call ratio 0.83 — bulls clearly outnumber bears.
Last week, Bitcoin surged from 62,000 to 81,000, rising $18,000 in one week, the second largest weekly gain in recent years, turning a large number of call options from worthless into in-the-money.
Next, look at the concentration of firepower: $75,000 strike price piled up $236 million, $80,000 piled up $157 million, and more than $500 million in notional value is squeezed within 5% of the current price range.
What does this mean?
Market makers' hedging positions are all concentrated at these price levels.
Before expiration, the price will either be pinned near a key level and fluctuate back and forth, or once it breaks through, the hedging positions will accelerate the market in one direction like stepping on the gas — speeding up the rise or accelerating the fall.
The most ominous indicator is the maximum pain point: $68,000 $BTC Before $NVDA earnings, options are increasingly leaning bullish.
On 8/28, 230C single-day OI increased by 13,071 contracts, 220C increased by 14,279 contracts.
Call premium is $575M, nearly double that of puts.
IV Rank is only 40, indicating that although volatility has risen before earnings, it is far from entering uncontrolled pricing.
What’s more noteworthy is the structure.
NVDA is currently in a very interesting state: existing positions are Long Gamma, but the new flow on the day shows characteristics of Short Gamma.
Normally, Long Gamma helps suppress volatility, but once the earnings truly provide direction, the new Short Gamma could quickly amplify price movements.
210 is the current support, acceleration begins around 217, Gamma Flip is near 223, and 230 is the first real wall.
At the same time, 3DTE Charm already shows obvious mechanical selling pressure above 220.
As 8/28 expiration approaches, dealers will continuously adjust hedges due to time decay.
There is also obvious supply at 240C, so above 220 is not an easy path.
This earnings report will be about whether it can hold 210, surpass 217, break through 223, and finally stabilize above 230.
If it can, the position structure that originally suppressed volatility could very likely become an accelerator for the rally after earnings. BTC not holding above 83K actually makes me think it's more worth watching now.
Yesterday BTC briefly surged above 81K but didn’t continue directly, and now it has returned to the 78K to 79K range.
Many people’s first reaction might be that the breakout failed, but I think it’s too early to conclude that.
Because this rally from 62K to 80K was largely driven by short covering in the first half. The clearest sign is that while BTC price rose, the BTC-denominated futures OI actually dropped to a nearly five-month low, and funding rates didn’t show any overheating.
So now the market is truly entering the second phase: after short covering ends, is there real buying coming in?
This is why I’ve always said 83K is very important. Now I’m focusing on three things:
1️⃣ Whether the 78K–80K range can form a new support, rather than quickly falling back to the previous breakout zone.
2️⃣ If the price pushes back up to 80K–82K, whether OI recovers healthily or if there’s a sudden surge in long leverage. If it’s just leverage piling back on without spot volume increasing, that’s a warning sign.
3️⃣ The most important now, whether ETF and spot capital can sustain. On 8/24, BTC ETF still had a net inflow of $337 million, but the data released on 8/25 clearly shrank. Although the data isn’t fully updated yet, it at least tells us we can’t rely solely on the previous short covering to push prices higher.
If the market can hold and challenge 81K–83K again, with spot and ETF flows returning in sync, that breakout will be more meaningful than yesterday’s direct spike.
Conversely, if ETF inflows continue to cool, prices fall back to the previous breakout zone, and OI quickly rises again, then we need to be cautious that this rally was just a large short squeeze.
After a failed breakout, whether the market can turn resistance back into support is also a way to judge if a trend can continue.Invisible On-Chain Fundamental Divergence: BTC Wins as Value Store, ETH Busy but Struggling to Capture Value
Behind the price divergence in the crypto market in August lies a more easily overlooked main theme: the divergence of on-chain fundamentals is accelerating. BTC’s on-chain transaction activity remains sluggish, yet large transfers and institutional address movements are hitting new records, following a "low circulation, high accumulation" value storage path; ETH’s on-chain Gas consumption, L2 transaction volume, and DeFi locked value are all rising, with a thriving ecosystem, but the native token’s ability to capture value consistently lags behind the pace of ecosystem expansion. Between stillness and movement, the fundamental logic of these two leading coins has long diverged, which is the underlying root of the price trend divergence.
BTC’s on-chain fundamentals show typical "value storage" characteristics: low circulation, high accumulation, and large amounts. On-chain data shows that in the past 30 days, BTC’s daily average on-chain transfer count dropped about 12% compared to the same period last year, with small and medium transactions steadily declining and ordinary users’ transfer demand clearly shrinking. Meanwhile, large transfers and institutional address activity are accelerating: transfers exceeding 1000 BTC per transaction increased over 18% from last month, exchanges had a net outflow exceeding 13,000 BTC, and whales and institutions continue moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking. This indicates BTC’s on-chain circulation is shifting from "retail high-frequency trading" to "institutional large-scale allocation," with active circulating supply decreasing and the proportion of coins held by long-term holders reaching a new high since December 2023.
This fundamental feature directly solidifies the price floor support. BTC does not need on-chain activity to support its value; its core narrative is "digital gold"—limited supply, strong scarcity, censorship resistance, and inflation resistance. Less on-chain circulation actually means more thorough accumulation and lighter selling pressure. Since August, the cumulative net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs has exceeded $2.07 billion, with institutional funds entering and largely accumulating as base holdings, further reinforcing the "low circulation, high accumulation" characteristic. This is reflected in the market as "resistant to drops, steady gains," with every pullback supported and every breakout accompanied by volume, resulting in a steady and solid market.
ETH’s on-chain fundamentals show typical "ecosystem prosperity" characteristics: high circulation, diverse applications, and fragmentation. By late August, Ethereum’s total staked amount surpassed 41.9 million ETH, accounting for 34.7% of total supply, a new all-time high, with over one-third of circulating supply locked long-term, effectively sealing off deep downside from the supply side. The L2 ecosystem continues to expand, with combined daily transaction volume on Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, and other Layer 2 networks surpassing Ethereum mainnet. DeFi total locked value has risen over 15% since the start of the year, and on-chain interactions in the AI+Crypto sector are growing exponentially. The ecosystem’s prosperity is undeniable, and Ethereum’s network effect as a smart contract platform continues to strengthen.
However, the problem is that the ecosystem’s prosperity value has not fully translated to the ETH token itself. Gas fee revenue from L2 networks largely flows to Sequencer operators rather than ETH holders; DeFi protocol fee income is mostly captured by protocol treasuries and governance tokens; although AI+Crypto applications consume Gas, the per-transaction Gas fees are very low, limiting demand pull for ETH. More critically, ETH’s burn mechanism (EIP-1559) sees its deflationary effect significantly weakened under low Gas price conditions, with net ETH burn in the past 30 days down over 40% compared to last year, clearly weakening the deflation narrative. The more prosperous the ecosystem, the more dispersed the value, making ETH tokens "infrastructure just passing through," busy but not making big money.
This fundamental divergence is directly reflected in the funding gap. Since August, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs are only about one-third of BTC’s, with over 70% of the increase coming from a single BlackRock product, lacking systemic industry-wide accumulation support. Institutional funds do not fail to see ETH’s ecosystem prosperity but cannot clearly see how that prosperity translates into sustained ETH token appreciation. More short-term funds gather in derivatives markets for speculation; during this rebound, ETH perpetual contract open interest fluctuated wildly, funding rates once surged to 0.08%, with a high proportion of speculative capital, making the market’s sustainability and stability weaker than BTC’s.
The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium will be a key window to test the quality of both. Under the baseline scenario, the Fed maintains a neutral stance, BTC continues to oscillate between $77,000 and $81,000 digesting locked positions, and ETH fluctuates widely between $2,400 and $2,550. Under an optimistic scenario with dovish policy, BTC is expected to steadily break through $82,000 resistance, while ETH may spike impulsively driven by sentiment. Under a pessimistic scenario with unexpectedly hawkish moves triggering a pullback, BTC has institutional base support limiting the decline, while ETH may face dual pressure from forced deleveraging and questioned value capture logic, resulting in a larger correction.
Overall, BTC’s value storage logic is simple, clear, and verifiable, suitable for mid-term allocation and holding; ETH’s ecosystem prosperity logic is complex with unclear value capture paths, better suited for swing trading with strict position control. On-chain fundamentals don’t lie; understanding where value comes from and where it goes is key to choosing the right direction in a divergent market. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $HYPE HYPE
Defying the trend to hit a new all-time high!
The most direct catalyst comes from expectations of U.S. compliance.
The market is pricing in that Hyperliquid is likely to gain access to the U.S. market.
Once realized, it will open up a huge incremental user base.
Institutional attention is rapidly increasing.
The platform allocates up to 97% of trading fees to token buybacks.
The higher the trading volume, the stronger the buyback support.
This creates a positive feedback loop between business and token price.
The platform's business is also continuously expanding; besides crypto contracts,
trading of real-world assets like gold and silver is rapidly increasing in proportion.
Overall trading volume remains high, and protocol revenue is considerable,
providing fundamental support for the token price.
At the same time, ETF-related narratives continue to ferment.
There are already related ETF products overseas.
The imagination space for institutional compliant allocation channels
further boosts market sentiment.
While BTC is consolidating and most altcoins are weak,
capital is flocking into HYPE, with whales continuously accumulating,
creating this independent bull market rally.
However, risks must be acknowledged: U.S. compliance is currently only market expectation and has not been officially implemented; regulatory uncertainty remains.
Buyback strength heavily depends on platform trading volume; once market heat fades, support will weaken.
Combined with a huge short-term price increase and a large amount of profit-taking accumulated, a significant correction could come at any time, so blind chasing is not advisable.
Taking a small break for a correction～
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Are there really many diamond hands bottom-fishing $CORE?
Other altcoins are mostly being shorted.
But on the planet, when searching for topics related to CORE,
you see many posts talking about bottom-fishing and buying in.
From 2024's drop until now, people have been bottom-fishing continuously.
This hype is even livelier than the former $FIL.
The trading heat ranking on OKB often stays around 30.
Sometimes when it rises, it can even rank as high as 10.
This isn't even a Chinese project.
Why is user stickiness so strong?
Such a long-term declining project,
the official Twitter surprisingly still has 2.31 million followers.
I always feel the dog whales won’t abandon the position.
This bull market looks like it has a great opportunity.
$SOL $CORE Brothers, the market has started to pull back. The Nasdaq in the US stock market has slightly retreated, risk assets are generally under pressure, and crypto is being dragged down along with it. This is due to external factors, not because crypto itself has problems.
ETF inflows have clearly slowed compared to a few days ago, and incremental funds have temporarily paused. The market lacks upward momentum, so even a little selling pressure easily pushes prices down. However, there hasn't been a large-scale net outflow; institutions are not running away.
On the Sol side, the hype around AI Agents has cooled down, and the previously hyped altcoins are collectively pulling back, dragging down short-term sentiment for SOL. But the ecosystem infrastructure is still progressing; it's just a cooling of themes, not a fundamental problem.
After this wave of decline, many high-position long orders have been liquidated. Platforms like Hyperliquid have returned to a relatively balanced long-short ratio, and some overheated leverage has been washed out. This is also why I prefer to buy on the pullback; with the leverage bubble squeezed out, as long as funds come in later, there is room for a rebound.
There are no sudden regulatory negative news or new laws implemented. This is a pullback caused by a combination of external stock market drag + ETF incremental rest + theme cooling + leverage cleaning, not a trend reversal.
BTC buy at 77650-77800, stop loss below 77300, targets 78700, 79400-79600
ETH buy at 2432-2440, stop loss below 2410, targets 2470, 2495
SOL buy at 94.9-95.3, stop loss below 94.4, targets 97.5, 98.7
If the US stock market continues to plunge and the support level is decisively broken, then stop and wait and see JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, and Wells Fargo are all planning to enter the stablecoin market. For a long time, this market has basically been dominated by Tether and Circle. Now, these Wall Street giants plan to build their own payment systems, launch a bank-style digital dollar, and plan to create a tokenized money market fund that can settle interest daily. Currently, the daily trading volume of stablecoins is about $7 billion, a size enough to spark the desires of traditional financial giants. Many people first think this is definitely great news for the crypto industry, but upon closer inspection, there are both benefits and pitfalls. The positive side is very clear: large Wall Street institutions entering the market effectively provide strong endorsement for the stablecoin sector. A large amount of regulated funds now has a brand-new channel to gradually penetrate the crypto space. In the long run, this will bring more incremental capital to the entire market. However, don't assume that traditional institutions entering the market will cause USDT and USDC to skyrocket. Bank-issued stablecoins will be subject to a very strict regulatory framework. Their goal is not to group with existing cryptocurrencies but to compete for digital currency influence. In the future, some funds will likely be diverted. Moreover, tokenized money market funds come with daily interest calculation, which is very attractive. Many institutional funds may move from existing stablecoins to bank products. In the long run, this means the boundary between traditional finance and crypto is gradually dissolving. However, short-term rallies may not trigger an immediate explosion; more often, the industry landscape will reshuffleBTC surged to 81,000 but failed three times and fell back to 78,000. This is not a bearish reversal, but a profit-taking liquidation after the short squeeze fuel burned out: This round started from 65,000, driven by short covering + seven consecutive ETF inflows (on 8/24 alone +$337 million), but futures open interest dropped to a 5-month low, indicating it’s not genuine new money pushing the price up, but a "fake bull" forced by short squeeze. Now longs and shorts are stuck in a battle between Just looking at “core PCE still at 3.3%,” it’s easy to read this data as unchanged. Neutral?
Private domestic final sales for Q2 were revised up from 3.9% to 4.2%, and the core PCE annualized was also revised up from 3.4% to 3.6%. Demand is stronger, inflation is revised upward, and the interest rate side can’t be relaxed.
BTC on the 4-hour chart has already been pushed below EMA20 at 78139; I treat this as bearish, with 75979 as the next support. Only a reclaim above 78139 can be considered a stop to the decline; to overturn this judgment, 81266 must be taken back.
$BTC $ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
For information organization and personal opinion only, not investment advice. Since the crypto market rebounded in August, BTC has broken through $81,000 intraday, hitting a new May high. ETH surged to $2,530 before retreating to around $2,450, with the divergence between the two continues to widen. On the surface, this seems like a difference in gains and volatility, but the deeper reason is that regulatory certainty is being repriced by the market: BTC's regulatory path is becoming clearer, its commodity attributes and ETF framework are fully implemented, and compliance barriers for institutional entry have been basically cleared; ETH's regulatory status remains unresolved, with disputes over its securities status repeatedly escalating, and institutional funds remain hesitant to hold large positions. Between clarity and certainty, regulatory premiums are becoming the core driver of market differentiation between the two. BTC's regulatory certainty is a solid support that has been implemented after multiple rounds of competition. On the commodity side, the U.S. CFTC had already defined BTC as a commodity as early as 2015. After a decade of judicial and regulatory practice, this positioning has never wavered, and the market has formed a strong consensus. At the ETF level, in January 2024, the U.S. spot BTC ETF was officially approved for listing. After nearly two years of operation, the product system, custody mechanism, and subscription and redemption processes are fully mature. Leading institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity have deeply participated, making BTC the most well-established crypto asset with compliance channels. At the regulatory framework level, the SEC has recently promoted customized regulatory rules for crypto assets. As the most mature target, BTC has the clearest path to inclusion in the compliance framework, and policy uncertainty continues to decrease. This regulatory certainty directly translates into real capital inflows. Since August, in the U.S$BTC remains in a short-term range-bound oscillation between $78,000 and $80,000. The core PCE year-over-year at 3.3% in July highlights inflation stickiness, with high interest rates maintaining expectations that transmit to liquidity and suppress risk appetite. The key variable is Friday's speech by Walsh; if hawkish signals are released pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, the defense line will shift down to $76,000. The observation criterion for the breakdown of the oscillation structure is $BTC breaking through $80,000 with volume and completing confirmation.
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期The fear index rising often marks the most dangerous yet most promising times in the market. On August 16, the index was reported at 34 to 35, still within the fear zone but having climbed out of the previous extreme fear. The key point is that this "early recovery" phase means very different things for BTC and ETH.
For $BTC, the fear zone is often a period of "institutions buying while retail selling." Although there was a single-day outflow from ETFs on August 14-15, the weekly net inflow remained positive, and long-term holders' selling was limited. Wall Street complains about volatility while increasing ETF positions, indicating that smart money sees fear as a buying opportunity. If the index dips again, contrarian funds are very likely to continue entering.
The situation for $ETH is much more delicate. Its holders include a higher proportion of DeFi protocols and staking pools, so fear is not just a psychological reading but directly translates into reduced on-chain locked assets, staking withdrawals, and declining Gas fees—worsening sentiment itself forms a negative feedback on fundamentals. In other words, BTC's fear is about chip exchange, while ETH's fear is about ecosystem bleeding.
Therefore, tactics should differ: BTC can be accumulated in batches on index dips, betting on smart money support; ETH requires first observing whether on-chain locked assets and staking flows stabilize, confirming the interruption of negative feedback before following up. The same fear index is a buy signal for one and a warning signal for the other.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $BTC 1-hour chart shows an overall downward trend for Bitcoin's price during the day. In the evening, the price broke below the 78000 level, potentially opening further downside space. Currently, the price is in a rebound state, with resistance near the midline at around 78500, where short positions can be considered. The current short-term trend favors bears, so avoid heavy bottom-fishing. Support is seen at 77000; if this support holds, the bullish rebound may continue. If broken, a deep correction phase may ensue. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Late Night Trading Record: Total Assets 528K, Another Day of Big Swings... This Round I'm on the Bearish Side 🎢
It's late, the light from my phone screen shines on my face, and tonight Xiao Ai is once again staring at the K-line, unable to sleep 😮💨.
A quick look at the total asset valuation: 528,581.63 CNY, then today's profit and loss: -¥12,989.41 (-2.42%), that pink 1-day trend line is heading straight down, a visible shrinkage of assets. I was hoping for a rebound during the day, but the market accelerated downward at the close, grinding the bulls into the ground.
Switching to the 4-hour chart of BTCUSDT perpetual contracts, the screen is full of dense red S's and green B's, all marks of my recent back-and-forth trades and repeated stop losses. The price is hovering around 78,098, with KDJ and RSI indicators weakening across the board, and volume shrinking as well. This kind of slow decline with occasional spikes means stubbornly holding long positions is just warming the market; today's 13K tuition fee hurts.
After reflecting on the pain, this consolidation isn't over, and the main force's intention to sell off is clear. My thinking is very clear now: I'm officially siding with the bears this round 🎢! From now on, any technical rebound will be treated as an opportunity to reduce positions or reverse test, strictly setting defensive lines—I won't give up without profiting from the bearish move.
I've already set up plan orders and am waiting to trigger them. Let's see if I can post a "recovery" report tomorrow! Did everyone hold on tonight? Let's huddle together in the comments 👇Currently trending, discussion volume continues to rise. BTC current price 79,083 (24h -2.00%). Conclusion first: In this market, surviving is more important than making a lot of profit. Position sizing and mindset are more important than predictions.
My three judgments:
1. Sentiment: Hype is a double-edged sword: it accelerates the rise but also speeds up the peak. When the noise is loud, it’s often close to a short-term high.
2. Capital: From the capital perspective, net inflows of spot ETFs and exchange balances are key for sustainability—volume must keep up for the trend to hold.
3. Position: Looking at levels, 83,038 above is the next hurdle, and 75,129 below is critical support—breaking support will cause sentiment to fade faster than expected.
Conclusion: In this market, surviving is more important than making a lot of profit. Position sizing and mindset are more important than predictions.
What do you think? Let’s discuss rationally in the comments.
(Original opinion, not investment advice, DYOR)
$BTC