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PCE is out, and honestly, I don’t think it made the Fed’s job any easier.
Headline PCE is still running at 3.7% year over year, while core PCE is holding around 3.3%. Inflation isn’t suddenly accelerating, but it’s also clearly not back where the Fed wants it.
For me, that means the attention now shifts almost completely to Jackson Hole.
The data gave both sides of the debate something to work with. The more cautious camp can point to inflation still sitting well above target, while others can point to relatively contained monthly inflation and argue there’s no need to rush into another policy move.
Personally, I’m less interested in hearing another “data dependent” message. I want to know how the Fed is thinking about the next few months and whether it sees sticky inflation as something that requires more tightening or simply more patience.
#PCEToJacksonHole $BTC I originally thought today's ZRO surge was just another ordinary pump.
But after checking the news, there really is something.
LayerZero has launched a new ATLAS.
The most direct point:
A portion of the fees generated by ATLAS will be used to buy back and burn ZRO.
So this time it's not just a vague "ecosystem upgrade."
At least the rules clearly state how the token participates.
However, ATLAS hasn't officially launched yet.
The current rise is based on expectations.
How much real trading volume there will be in the future is another matter.
$ZRO #200 Yuan Challenge to 1 Million Day 10 📉 EDEN: The interest on on-chain US debt goes to others, I short it
Everyone knows the story of Eden: the serpent deceived Eve to eat the apple. The story of EDEN is similar: the interest on US debt is distributed to TBILL holders, while 1 billion tokens are left for the secondary market to slowly absorb.
I was out of position overnight yesterday, today’s first trade: shorted 5,279 EDEN at 2x leverage, opening average price 0.0647, currently floating profit +13.14 USDT.
Background first, this coin is not a random dog token, OpenEden is doing real business: putting US Treasury bonds on-chain (TBILL). Recently, the news of $2.36 billion bond fund from BNY Mellon going on-chain ignited the entire RWA narrative. EDEN, as the on-chain US debt leader, was chased by funds, once surged +90% on Upbit, and on August 14 surged 74% in one day again. Reports say turnover was 2.3 times the market cap.
The more hype, the more I get itchy hands. Three hard logics:
1. The interest on US debt goes to TBILL holders, EDEN holders get nothing. The token only has governance attributes; how much the protocol earns has no relation to the token price. This is the "value trap": the pump is only narrative, no fundamentals.
2. Total supply is 1 billion, but circulating is only a small portion; airdrop only released 15 million. The old trick of high FDV and low circulation, unlocking queues are waiting behind, each batch is selling pressure.
3. Turnover at 2.3 times market cap is not institutional accumulation, but retail fast flipping. Each positive news is smaller than the last; the day sentiment fades will be a spike day. After +90%, no new highs, relying on BNY news for a second ignition, a last gasp, not a reversal.
If wrong, admit it and stop loss out. 2x leverage is for survival. The mountaintop wind is strong, keep warm.
I only short, always 2x, all position funds are public. If you think I get liquidated, keep posting evidence in the comments.
Comment section stand: press 1 if you think RWA can continue, press 2 if you think it’s over. Check back next week, losers post apologies.
Contracts carry risks, for reference only, not investment advice. After BTC broke through $80,000, institutional funds continue to enter the market
After BTC surged past $80,000, the market began to focus on one question: Is this rally supported by real capital?
According to the latest ETF data, the answer is temporarily positive. The US spot BTC ETF has maintained net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding $3 billion in August. On August 25 alone, the net inflow was about $314 million, and the ETH spot ETF also maintained capital inflows.
This means that although the recent BTC rise was driven by short covering, it is not only short-term funds participating. ETFs continuously absorbing spot chips indicate that traditional capital channels are still increasing BTC allocations.
However, 7 consecutive days of inflows are not enough to directly confirm a new trend. What really matters is whether ETF funds can continue to hold after BTC stands above $80,000. If the funds persist and the price remains stable, then the logic of this rally will be more solid than just a short squeeze.BTC is about $78.7k, touched $81.3k, but hasn't stabilized at 80k on the daily chart. Two things will happen tomorrow: Deribit options expiring at about $6.4B, and Fed Chair Warsh's debut speech at Jackson Hole — I won't add to my position before Friday to chase the rally. First, conclusion: a bullish correction is established, but 80k hasn't held steady yet; More importantly, Friday is a swing window, not a directional window. Current price is about $78.7k, 7-day +8%, 30-day +31%. Nearly 60-day daily chart stabilized at 80k: 0 times. Touching and stabilizing are two trades. Yesterday, many people were still arguing about "whether we can hold a new level." Let me put it another way: before you hold firm, can you survive Friday first? First checkpoint—Options: Deribit about 81,700 contracts, nominal value about $6.4B, expiring at 16:00 Beijing time Friday. More calls than puts (P/C 0.83), with the densest calls at $75k (about $236M) and $80k (about $157M). Market makers need to hedge; when prices are near these strike prices, the market is more likely to be "pinned down" or "accelerated." Don't blindly believe in Max Pain $68k—too far from the current price, just listen to the story. Second hurdle — macro: Later that day, Warsh made his Fed Chairman's debut at Jackson Hole, with the theme revolvedENA's protocol TVL reached $4.2 billion in Q2, up 160% year-over-year, with a surge in stablecoin minting.
Then the night session plummeted over 9%, wiping out more than $3 billion in market value.
Data exploded, price exploded, both happening simultaneously.
The reason is straightforward: 180 million ENA tokens unlocked this week, with early teams and VCs dumping heavily.
There are still doubts in the industry about the de-pegging risk of the synthetic dollar mechanism under extreme market conditions; the official statement claims it has been reinforced, but the market is skeptical.
This is the harsh reality of the secondary market: once all the good news is out, it turns into bad news. After the unlock sell-off, will you get on board or wait and see? #Ethena $ENA $SNDK token price broke through $1533.73 and held the MA25 support, but the 2.29% premium rate combined with the daily MACD death cross and expanding green bars presents a structural contradiction, indicating that the bullish trend is facing a liquidity test after the U.S. stock market opens.
The token surged 3.70% overnight to $1533.73, creating a divergence where the token leads with a breakout but falls below the MA7 short-term moving average. Due to the U.S. stock market holiday keeping the underlying stock at $1499.37, the 2.29% spot premium reflects the market's short-term enthusiasm driven by buyback benefits and the launch of DeFi collateral.
In terms of driver priority, the capital retention effect brought by the DeFi collateral function takes precedence over the softer negative guidance. The Nasdaq 100 token's 1.24% gain further amplifies sector risk appetite. RSI14 at a neutral 50.1 indicates that the chips have not entered an overheated zone, supporting the market to oscillate above MA25.
The bullish scenario triggers if the underlying stock opens with a catch-up rally and erases the 2.29% token premium, while the MACD momentum bars begin to converge. If the token can stabilize above $1533.73, buying pressure will push further toward the upper resistance level. A key variable to watch is the speed at which the token premium narrows in the 30 minutes before the U.S. market opens.
The bearish scenario triggers if the underlying stock opens with a catch-down or moving average defense fails, causing sentiment to retreat and clearing the premium. Once the MACD death cross green bars continue to expand and the price closes below MA25, the market will shift from a bullish structure directly into a daily-level correction. The variable to watch is the volume expansion after the underlying stock opens.
Confirmation of trading logic failure occurs if the token ignores the underlying stock trend and breaks below MA25 support. If this key support fails, the sentiment premium previously driven by DeFi collateral and buybacks will be quickly squeezed, and the price will seek a new bottom.
In the next 24 hours, focus on observing the normalization path of the 2.29% premium after the underlying stock opens and the capital battle results at the key MA25 moving average level.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键Bitwise recently launched tokenized stock portfolios that can be stored in personal wallets. Assets can be transferred on-chain and holdings can be adjusted by automated strategies, but this does not mean the underlying stocks have become intermediary-free assets.
Tokenized stocks are usually issued by specialized entities, with the underlying securities held in segregated custodial accounts. Wallet holders control on-chain tokens representing the related rights, while stock registration, asset custody, compliance review, and redemption are still handled off-chain by institutions.
Therefore, private key control addresses the issue of token transfer rights. It can prevent unauthorized wallet transfers but cannot eliminate risks posed by issuers, custodians, and legal structures.
Some products also distinguish between "verified holders" and "unverified holders." Addresses that obtain tokens through DeFi but have not completed compliance verification may only hold or transfer tokens, cannot redeem stocks or cash, and cannot exercise certain holder rights.
This indicates that on-chain transferability and legal ownership are two separate layers. Tokens can circulate 24/7, be self-custodied, and access DeFi, but their ultimate value still depends on whether the underlying assets truly exist, whether the custody structure is effective, and whether holders have clear redemption and claim rights.
Self-custody guarantees on-chain control but does not automatically equal ownership of the underlying assets.
#RWA#wallet technology#tokenized stocks$BTC
From the K-line perspective, last week's breakout is no different from the early stages of previous bull markets, but the emotional background is very different.
1. Last week's historically highest short liquidation volume and the greed-fear index rising to 74 indicate that market sentiment has been ignited, whereas the true early bull market phase is usually hesitant and silent.
2. The US stock index is at a historical high, while previous bull market starts coincided with the US stock index beginning from a low point.
If BTC cannot break through 83,000 within the next 1-2 weeks, the probability of a false breakout is very high, meaning this is not the start of a bull market. Instead, it would be the death knell for the bulls; after the shorts are wiped out, the slaughter will turn towards the bulls. Every time the market bottom is full of negative news. Previously, when BTC was at 50k, there were constant rumors about a dump in Mentougou. Then BTC broke through its all-time high, and the price nearly doubled.
At the high points of 110k and 120k BTC, all kinds of positive news appeared: ETF capital inflows, strategic reserves, spot ETFs. The market was thriving, but then it crashed back down to 60k.
The joke comes again. After consolidating at a key level for a while, suddenly a positive news about a meeting was released, and then BTC and ETH quickly rose. In the past couple of days, positive news has been flying everywhere again, with various institutions claiming the bottom has appeared and that the four-year cycle is invalid.
So, what kind of market is this round?Honestly, Nvidia's financial report is a bit exaggerated. Revenue was $96.2 billion, a year-on-year surge of 106%. Data center revenue was even stronger, reaching $89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 117%. More importantly, next quarter's revenue guidance is set at $108 billion. The market was originally speculating whether AI was cooling down, but Nvidia used the numbers to tell you: AI computing power demand hasn't cooled off yet. And this time, the most noteworthy thing isn't just Blackwell. The next-generation Rubin has already begun to take over, and Nvidia is turning AI chips into a "continuous upgrade" business. This is the scariest part. In the past, buying GPUs meant buying a whole set of equipment. Now, AI giants seem to be constantly iterating. After Blackwell comes Rubin, and after Rubin comes the next generation. As long as AI models grow larger and inference demands rise, computing power will be hard to stop. So now ask again: "Is there still demand for AI?" The answer is already very clear. What should really be asked is: "How much longer can this crazy growth last?" Because Nvidia's biggest problem now is no longer performance. It's expectations. When a company's annual revenue grows by more than 100%, the market is naturally willing to give it a high valuation. But if future growth drops from 100% to 50%, then from 50% to 30%, even if the company remains very profitable, the stock price may react early. There's another detail worth noting. Behind NvidiaNo sensational news of sharp rises or falls, but this continuous 9 trading days of "uninterrupted buying" on-chain and data monetization often reflects the true underlying attitude of capital better than a single-day surge. "Buy only, no sell" for 9 days: Traditional settled funds are playing "dollar-cost averaging". Maintaining net buying for 9 consecutive trading days, accumulating purchases of $413.1 million, this is definitely not short-term hedge fund arbitrage behavior, but typical incremental capital accumulation from retail/investment clients. The daily dollar-cost averaging style buying amid price fluctuations forms a very strong spot bottom support. The $10 billion milestone: Chips are being "irreversibly" locked. Since the approval of spot ETFs, just Fidelity's institutional clients alone have purchased over $10 billion. Exchange liquidity continues to be drained: Withdrawals from CEX (centralized exchanges) to ETF custody mean that the "liquid" chips available for trading in the market are being permanently locked into TradFi balance sheets. A binary pattern has formed: BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC have completely secured the "dual monopoly" position in spot ETFs. The cumulative net inflows of these two giants account for the absolute majority of the entire ETF market, while other small and medium issuers are gradually becoming runners-up. Follow-up highlights and potential risks: Buying power sustainability: It is necessary to monitor whether this continuous net buying can be maintained during market pullbacks. If prices are adjusted downward but Fidelity's buying remains strong, it will accelerate the formation of a "supply shock." True demand after basis arbitrage clearance: Recently partAltcoins are surging, but don’t rush to chase.
This rally has followed a clear rotation: BTC → major coins → DeFi → Meme → small/mid-caps. Bitcoin’s move above $80K, ETF inflows, regulatory catalysts, Trump’s policy signals, and short squeezes have all fueled the rebound.
But the “everything goes up” phase may be ending. Going forward, capital is likely to favor projects with real revenue, strong narratives, and clear catalysts.
Keep an eye on $BICO and $ONT.NVIDIA reported earnings last night, following the usual script of "everything beats expectations but the stock price barely moves."
Revenue hit 96.2 billion, more than doubling. The data center segment was the strongest, at 89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. Jensen Huang said AI has reached an inflection point, with computing power genuinely turning into revenue. This is backed by data—the hyperscale customer segment grew 102%, and AI cloud and industrial customers grew 138%. The guidance for next quarter is around 108 billion, slightly above the market expectation of 104.8 billion.
But the stock still dipped slightly after hours. This script is similar to SK Hynix $SKHYNIX and SanDisk $SNDK—good earnings are basic operations, nothing to get excited about. NVIDIA has already risen 12% this year, with valuation and expectations priced in.
What the market is really watching now are a few other things: can the 75% gross margin hold? Will storage price hikes squeeze profits? And that 500 billion computing power financing platform in cooperation with several Wall Street institutions, which basically uses chips as collateral for loans. It sounds wild; Morgan Stanley said "the logic holds but the risks are hard to quantify."
Back to Bitcoin $BTC, NVIDIA $NVDA's earnings report is a reassurance for the AI hardware supply chain, with upstream demand intact. But if AI stocks start to plateau or pull back from high levels, the overflow money might flow into crypto. Let's wait and see. #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold?
The Fear and Greed Index surged from 27 to 74 in two weeks,
reaching a new high since October 2025, then fell back to 65 today;
BTC surged from 68,000 to 80,000 before retreating to 78,500.
74 does not mean a peak; after the last 74, although new highs were made, severe deleveraging occurred a few days later.
This round of rise is mostly due to short squeeze, with about $2.74 billion liquidated on August 20, but Coinbase premium remains below zero, and spot demand is not confirmed.
If BTC holds steady between 80,000–82,000 and ETF/spot funds follow, it indicates a warming trend; if stuck below 80,000 with sentiment and Meme continuing to run wild, it looks more like an overheating warning.
The key is to watch if price and real capital can keep up with sentiment.
$BTC • BTC intraday high reached approximately $81,000–$81,300 (a new high since mid-May), then retreated to consolidate around $78,000–$79,000.
• Core driver: The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchase operations (single operation cap at least doubled to $4 billion), interpreted by the market as a "quasi-easing" to improve liquidity and suppress long-end yields, with funds flowing into Bitcoin and other hedging assets (the "dollar depreciation trade" narrative intensifies).
• Coupled with continuous large net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs over several days (about $2 billion+ accumulated in the past week, led by BlackRock IBIT), institutional buying is evident.
• Indicators like CryptoQuant show the bull market index soaring to high levels, but short-term profit-taking pressure exists; attention is needed on whether it can hold above 80k and confirm the trend.
Ethereum is also strong, with a weekly gain of nearly 30%, trading in the $2,400–$2,500 range, and the ETH/BTC ratio recovering. Some altcoins like XRP performed even stronger (weekly gain over 40%). $BTC The market rhythm of 2026 reminds many veteran players of the summer of 2022. At that time, Bitcoin went through a deep decline and then rebounded in the summer, but the true cycle bottom was only confirmed after another dip. Ethereum also showed a similar structural trend at that time. Now, Bitcoin has regained the $80,000 mark, while Ethereum hovers around $2,500. The price seems to be repeating that familiar script 🌀. But in this cycle, there is one variable that 2022 was completely absent—deep institutional involvement. This change could lead to a completely different outcome for the same price pattern. Let's look at the data first. Bitcoin returning above $80,000 indicates that after previous volatility and pressure, buyers' forces have regained the initiative. Ethereum's trend was relatively mild. The $2,500 level was both a psychological barrier and a previously dense trading zone. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears here seemed more like waiting for clearer macro signals. What truly deserves consideration is the structural differences. The 2022 rebound was mostly a self-rescue move by on-market funds, lacking external growth, so after the rebound, it often faced a second bottoming out. In this round, institutional fund allocation logic has been deeply embedded in the market. Whether it's the maturity of compliance channels or the long-term holding of crypto assets on large enterprises' balance sheets, the market's bottom support is stronger than ever 🏗️. Of course, institutional participation is also a double-edged sword. It brings liquidity and pricing efficiency, while also making the market more accommodatingAgainst the backdrop of recent pressure on mainstream coins, OKB's performance has indeed been somewhat unconventional. From a technical perspective, its relative strength index is around 76, which is relatively high but has not yet touched the overheating warning line of 80. This means upward momentum remains, but attention should be paid to potential natural short-term corrections at any time. This round of strength is not without support. The core variable comes from capital backing—ICE made a strategic investment in OKX at a valuation of $250 billion, effectively providing institutional credit endorsement for the platform's assets. This level of entry is often interpreted by the market as establishing a long-term value anchor, giving OKB an extra layer of confidence in its narrative. Looking at the supply structure, the total supply is 21 million tokens, all locked, combined with ongoing burn and repo mechanisms, essentially a deflationary model. In an overall liquidity tight environment, this design is more likely to attract existing funds to cluster together. The X Layer mainnet locking exceeded $100 million, indicating the ecosystem is not just at the whitepaper stage; real on-chain applications are already operating, providing fundamental support for token valuations. However, the most intriguing point is that trading volume shrinks when prices hit new highs, with daily turnover only $19.3 million. This volume-price divergence usually has two interpretations: first, highly concentrated chips with limited selling pressure, allowing major players to drive prices with relatively small capital; second, insufficient liquidity, and once the wind shifts, there may be a lack of support during downturns. At this stage, capital concentration is indeed highBlockchain security: the real vulnerabilities are no longer just in the code
In recent days, security incidents have occurred consecutively with Coldcard wallet, Term Finance, and The Sandbox, involving three different aspects: private keys, governance, and cross-chain.
On the surface, these are three different types of attacks, but they reveal the same underlying issue:
The security boundary of blockchain is continuously expanding.
The Coldcard incident shows that even hardware wallets can face risks if there are issues in the seed generation process.
The governance attack on Term Finance is even more alarming. The attacker is not simply looking for code vulnerabilities but is controlling funds through governance permissions. If the cost to attack governance is lower than the value of the treasury assets, then governance itself can become the largest attack surface.
The cross-chain incident with The Sandbox is similar. Problems with the SAND cross-chain mechanism on Base and BSC once again demonstrate that cross-chain bridges have become high-value, high-risk infrastructure in the blockchain ecosystem.
In the past, we used to ask: "Does the smart contract have vulnerabilities?"
But now we should ask:
Who controls the private keys? Who controls governance? Who controls cross-chain permissions?
The future competition in blockchain security is not just about code auditing capabilities but about the security of the entire asset lifecycle.
A truly secure protocol should not only have secure code but must also have a secure power structure. Fundamental Research Report $GMT / STEPN (GameFi) $3.20
Conclusion first: STEPN ($GMT) overall score 47/100, rating Early-stage project, insufficient validation. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Fundamental breakdown: STEPN (token $GMT), GameFi sector. Focused on Move-to-Earn. Comparable to AXS, GALA. Traditional centralized platforms take 15-40% commission, users don’t control their data. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average spend per user $50-500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: STEPN $3.00B, AXS undisclosed, GALA undisclosed. FDV: STEPN $4.20B, AXS undisclosed, GALA undisclosed. Annual revenue: STEPN $2.00M, AXS undisclosed, GALA undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: STEPN undisclosed, AXS undisclosed, GALA undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, missing parts supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Final qualitative rating: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 47/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlock dumps, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key future metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
That’s all for fundamentals, the rest is up to the market.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit US PCE data is out and the overall reading came in stronger than expected.
Core PCE stayed flat while personal spending and durable goods orders beat forecasts.
The US economy remains resilient, but inflation isn’t cooling fast enough weakening hopes for rapid rate cuts.
For gold this is short-term bearish favoring choppy pressure.
For $BTC and $ETH there’s no major bullish catalyst. Delayed rate cut expectations could keep the market volatile and range bound
$BTC $ETH
#PCEToJacksonHole Exclusive Analysis｜Stop Waiting for the “Altcoin Season,” Now It’s Only Mainstream Coins and the Doomsday Chariots
The strongest performers currently remain ETH, followed by BTC and SOL—these are the true top-tier assets.
Other coins, especially altcoins, surged sharply earlier but have now fallen back even more sharply. Many seemingly impressive short-term gains, when viewed on a monthly scale, have cumulative returns that lag far behind ETH.
The reason is simple:
A 20% rise followed by a 40% drop doesn’t bring you back to the starting point; it results in a loss.
This is why I have consistently emphasized: over the next 2–3 years, the core holdings should be ETH. Two weeks ago, I suggested a 10% allocation to SOL because after a prolonged decline, the odds have become favorable—not because I’m starting to allocate to altcoins.
The underlying structure of the crypto market has changed.
Seven or eight years ago, retail investors could drive broad rallies; now, the market is truly determined by institutions, ETFs, and large capital. These funds concentrate on a few core assets like ETH, BTC, and SOL, and won’t sell ETH only to prop up hundreds of altcoins with no real demand.
So I’m even reluctant to call them “altcoins” now:
There are only mainstream assets and doomsday chariots.
Looking at ETH again.
The current trend resembles the previous cycle: a sudden sharp rally mid-month, followed by sustained correction.
Around 2500, there is clearly a bull trap structure, with volume exhausted on the 8-hour and 12-hour charts.
From the perspective of the main players, it’s clear:
If the price continues to rise without volume, savvy spot investors won’t chase. The main players are trying to lure back those who sold at 2400 or 2500 but can’t resist re-entering because the price hasn’t dropped.
So even if the price holds up stubbornly until the end of the month, I still expect a correction in early September.
If it rises again on low volume?
My move won’t be to chase but to:
Keep selling high.
Because one must remember:
A rebound in a bear market is not a bottom; the higher it goes, the closer it is to the cash-out zone.
The main Q3 uptrend has completed about 60%–70%, with one final surge left.
Whether that final surge reaches 2600 or 2800–3000 depends on one question:
How far ETH will actually retrace this time.When will VELO's value return to the opening high price of 2.36U??
1. First, confirm the historical facts
The historical highest price of VELO did indeed approach 2.36U (ATH across platforms ranged between 2.13–2.36U during the 2021 bull market peak). The current price is about 0.0038U, a drop of over 99.8% compared to the peak.
But many overlook a core premise: the peak back then was a product of an early-stage circulating supply that was extremely small, incremental capital speculation, and the emerging narrative of cross-border payments during an emotional bull market, which is completely different from the current fundamental environment.
2. Market capitalization calculation needed to return to 2.36U
VELO's maximum total supply is 24 billion tokens:
- Fully diluted market cap: 2.36 × 24 billion = 56.64 billion U
- Circulating market cap: 2.36 × 17.564 billion = 41.451 billion U
3. The practical contradiction of "value return is just a matter of time"
1. Fundamentally vastly different
The 2021 peak was a conceptual speculation phase; now the project has been established for years, cross-border payments and RWA business remain in pilot stages, with no large-scale commercial revenue. The protocol lacks stable cash flow to support a trillion-level market cap.
2. Huge token sell pressure
With a total supply of 24 billion tokens, early institutional and ecosystem fund holdings have been released over years, greatly expanding the circulating supply. The capital required for the same market cap is much larger than in 2021.
3. Regulatory and competitive suppression
Regulations on the cross-border payment sector have tightened, and many similar RWA and cross-border clearing projects have emerged. VELO has not formed an irreplaceable moat.
4. Historical bull market ≠ guaranteed repeat
Most old coins in the crypto market have never returned to their ATH after breaking below it. Many projects trade sideways or decline slowly long-term. After the emotional premium disappears, only real cash flow can support high prices.
4. Rational perspective
- Optimistic scenario: a super bull market + Southeast Asia payment license implementation + large-scale institutional business growth could repair the coin price to the 0.05–0.1U range;
- Returning to 2.36U is an extremely optimistic low-probability event, requiring deep cooperation with global payment giants, explosive growth in the RWA sector, combined with a super bull market in crypto. It is not a case of "it will naturally return when the time comes" Hype is seriously overestimated. The value unlocked on the 29th is over $1.2 billion, while the annual revenue burn is only $800 million. The annual revenue can't even cover one month's unlock, and such unlocks happen every month. It's terrifying. The reasonable value of hype is around $40. #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level?
BTC's weekly gain reached 23%, but a short squeeze rebound does not equal a complete trend reversal.
This week, BTC surged 23%. Before this, the market was filled with caution, with short positions continuously accumulating. Then two rounds of massive liquidations directly shattered the original market expectations: $1.37 billion liquidated on the 19th, and another $739 million on the 21st.
However, a crucial detail is that after high-leverage shorts were cleared, the market did not frantically open new leveraged long positions. BTC perpetual contract open interest fell back to 284,000 contracts, and the funding rate returned to a neutral level. This indicates that this rally is not merely a game of contract funds pushing the price up.
Data also shows changes on the spot side: combined spot and perpetual contract weekly volume expanded by 188%, CME futures volume rose by 152%, and ETFs saw a net inflow of 31,740 BTC. Institutional funds have returned to market positioning. Coupled with expectations of liquidity easing due to adjustments in US long-term bonds, BTC, as a liquidity-sensitive asset, naturally experienced this strong rebound.
However, it is important to distinguish that a strong rebound does not mean the trend has fully reversed.
If volume quickly shrinks, ETF funds turn from inflows to outflows, or buying power weakens during pullbacks, market sentiment can instantly reverse. Many traders easily fall into the trap of treating a one-week explosive rally as a signal to chase prices blindly, which is a major risk in a high-level market.
In my view, this round of market action essentially represents a market structure repair: short positions cleared, incremental funds returning, and overall risk appetite rising.
Going forward, don’t just focus on candlestick price changes; pay more attention to volume during pullbacks, changes in funding rates, and the strength of real spot buying. Only if the market can hold steady after a pullback can we confirm the trend has truly stabilized.
$BTC
(Personal market analysis only, not investment advice)It still has to be the leather jacket big brother
NVIDIA $NVDA Q2 revenue reached $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year and up 18% quarter-over-quarter; data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117%. Nearly $100 billion in quarterly scale and still growing like this.
CFO disclosed: supply and capacity commitments jumped from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion, mainly used to lock in storage and manufacturing.
Management later indicated Q4 gross margin may further drop to 71%–72%. But I don't see this as negative; on the contrary, it's because 👇
Demand side: extremely strong.
Revenue side: extremely strong.
Rubin: starting to scale up.
Supply side: insufficient. As Bitcoin rebounds above $80,000, Strategy's stock price has risen 37% in a week, with nearly $6.7 billion in cash on hand, yet they haven't bought a single Bitcoin in the past two weeks. Last week, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR common stock through a market issuance plan, raising about $2 billion net. Of that, $136.4 million was used to repurchase 1.43 million STRC preferred shares, $300 million was transferred to the USD reserve account, and the remaining $1.57 billion was placed into the liquidity pool. Currently, Strategy holds about 840,000 BTC at an average cost of $75,300 per coin. With the current Bitcoin price factored in, the unrealized gain on the books exceeds $3 billion. The USD reserves plus the cash pool total $6.69 billion in liquidity, and the company also claims a net leverage ratio close to zero. In recent years, the market has been accustomed to Saylor's strategy of buying on dips, but this week's operation is the opposite: they sold $2 billion in stock but did not allocate any funds to Bitcoin. $BTC STRC is Strategy's flagship floating-rate preferred stock, designed to trade near a $100 par value. In June, during the market's worst period, STRC fell to as low as $71.25, directly shaking the company's ability to finance Bitcoin purchases through preferred stock. To support the price, Strategy established two $1 billion repurchase authorizations in July, respectively for repurchasing STRC and MSTR common stock. Currently, the STRC repurchase authorization has $516.6 million remaining, while the $1 billion limit for MSTR common stock repurchase is still$CORE ⚠️Important Statement: All prices are based on bull market scenario simulations and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly dependent on the overall market and project implementation. Historical gains do not guarantee future performance. CORE is a high-risk, small-cap token.
First, clarify the basic data:
Total supply of CORE is 2.1 billion tokens, with about 1.24 billion currently circulating. Current price ≈ $0.025, all-time high $6.14, current fully diluted market cap approximately $54 million.
The default premise for the next bull market: Bitcoin enters a super bull market (BTC reaches $100,000–$200,000), BTCFi sector experiences comprehensive explosion, CORE realizes real income buybacks, and TVL continues to grow.
Three tiers of bull market target prices (next full bull market cycle, 2027–2028):
1. Conservative Qualified Bull Market (BTC stabilizes at $100,000, BTCFi sector broadly rises, projects steadily implemented)
• Target price: $0.3–$0.8
• Logic: Market cap corresponds to $500 million–$1.5 billion, a second-tier leading token in BTCFi, representing a 12–30x increase from current price, only recovering part of the decline, far from previous highs.
• Trigger conditions: TVL maintains above $500 million, continuous real on-chain fees generated, buyback and burn normalized.
2. Neutral Optimistic Bull Market (BTC challenges $150,000, CORE becomes one of the BTCFi leaders, ecosystem experiences large-scale explosion)
• Target price: $1.2–$2.5
• Logic: Market cap $2.5–$5 billion, close to historical high range, 50–100x increase; requires BTC staking scale to exceed 20,000 tokens, large-scale commercial use of products like SatPay, institutional capital entry.
• Difficulty: Requires project to fully deliver narrative, anonymous team transparency improvement, selling pressure absorbed by ecosystem.
3. Extreme Super Bull Market (BTC surpasses $200,000, Bitcoin ecosystem becomes mainstream narrative, CORE monopolizes most BTCFi traffic)
• Extreme target: $3–$4.5
• Logic: Market cap $6–$9 billion, surpassing previous high of $6.14 is extremely difficult; to reach new all-time highs requires BTC above $200,000 and CORE TVL exceeding $10 billion, an extremely low probability scenario.
• Reality: To return to all-time high above $6 requires market cap growth of over 300x, nearly impossible in the next bull market.
Core limiting factors (why reaching previous highs is very difficult):
1. Very long token release cycle: mining rewards released over 81 years, continuous new token selling pressure for decades, long-term valuation ceiling suppression;
2. Anonymous team risks: team not public, major decisions and large chip movements not transparent, institutional long-term funds reluctant to heavily invest;
3. Sector competition: competitors like STX, Babylon, MERL continuously divert BTCFi funds, making it hard for CORE to dominate alone;
4. Buyback realization risk: current buybacks remain on roadmap without large-scale on-chain proof; if expectations are not met, valuation will quickly decline.
Summary in one sentence:
In the next regular bull market, CORE will most likely fluctuate between **$0.3–$2.5; only if Bitcoin enters an epic bull market + project fundamentals are fully realized, could it approach previous highs, with $6+ being an extremely low probability event**.
Risk warning: If BTC bull market strength is insufficient, project buybacks fail, or ecosystem activity declines, CORE may only see a slight rebound or even continue to underperform the market.
Would you like me to prepare a concise comparison table of bull market target prices for CORE, MERL, and BICO?Fidelity clients have net bought $413 million worth of Bitcoin over the past 9 days, buying every trading day.
Since the ETF launch, cumulative purchases have exceeded $10 billion.
A few observations:
1. Institutional buying is very steady—not a pulse-style entry, but continuous dollar-cost averaging buying
2. $10 billion is a milestone, indicating that traditional financial clients are truly allocating BTC, not just experimenting
3. Net buying for 9 consecutive days shows they are buying on dips, not chasing highs
This kind of buying structure provides solid support for the market. $BTC
The full set of US July PCE data was officially released in the evening
Overall performance exceeded expectations, inflation resilience is relatively strong!
Overall PCE month-on-month and year-on-year both exceeded market expectations,
#核心PCE同比持平3.3% has not cooled down, personal consumption and durable goods orders data all beat expectations, confirming that the fundamentals of the US economy remain strong.
The market's previous expectation of a rapid Fed rate cut was directly dampened, the logic of maintaining high interest rates for longer was repriced, and the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened in the short term.
👉For gold: the data is bearish, it is difficult to see a unilateral big rally in the short term, most likely under pressure and oscillating, do not blindly chase the upside.
👉For the crypto market ($BTC $ETH): without the support of easing benefits, rate cut expectations are delayed, BTC and ETH are unlikely to start a unilateral explosive rally, previous profit-taking combined with macro pressure, the market still mainly shows high-level repeated shakeouts and range-bound oscillations.
The focus now completely shifts to this Friday's Jackson Hole meeting, the tone of Fed official Wash's speech will directly determine the subsequent interest rate path and the direction of risk assets.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Written at the end
Trump's changing attitude toward Bitcoin is the result of a combination of interests, politics, geopolitics, and financial pressure.
Seven years ago, he called Bitcoin a "scam"—at that time, he did not hold any Bitcoin.
Seven years later, he claims to be a "crypto super fan"—by then, he held nearly $1 billion in Bitcoin, and his family had earned over $1.4 billion from the crypto industry.
He is not a believer; he is a stakeholder.
What does this mean for the crypto community? The good news is: one of the most powerful people in the world has a strong motivation to push Bitcoin's price up. The bad news is: once the reasons for the rise disappear—after the election, after making enough money, after the US debt issue eases—how long will his "love" last?
Trump said another sentence that might be closer to the truth: "I became a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency for only one reason—if we don't seize it, China will."
This is not faith; this is a race. And in a race, the identities of allies and opponents can switch at any time.
$ETH $SOL $BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 BTC surged to 81,000 but then retreated to 78,000; this is not a bearish reversal, but a profit-taking liquidation after the short squeeze fuel has burned out: this rally from 65,000 was driven by short covering plus seven consecutive days of ETF inflows (on 8/24 alone, +$337 million), but futures open interest dropped to a 5-month low, indicating this was not a genuine influx of fresh capital driving the rally, but a "fake bull" scenario caused by forced short liquidations.
Currently, bulls and bears are battling between 78K and 81K: if 78K breaks, look for support at the previous high of 75.5K; 81K–82K is pressured by the 50-week moving average and heavy trapped positions; tonight's core PCE and Friday's Jackson Hole event will set the direction, with a resurgence in macro rate hike expectations acting as a hidden bomb.
Assessment: this is a high-level shakeout, not a market top, but definitely not a linear bull run. The early session advised waiting for a pullback confirmation, which helped avoid this spike—on the right side, the market is not dead, but 80,000 must close with volume to count, otherwise any attempt to push higher is a bull trap. **Two major events have results, but the market reaction is muted:**
**① Nvidia earnings report — fully exceeded expectations**
- Revenue $96.2 billion (expected $92.2 billion) +4.3%
- Q4 guidance $108 billion (expected $104.2 billion) +3.7%
- Data center $89 billion, AI demand is genuinely strong
- After-hours stock price rose 4% to $217
**② SOL governance proposal — voting results uncertain**
- SGP-0002/0003 voter support rate >87%, looks very high
- **But participation rate only 25.9%, below the 33% threshold**, even if passed, technical implementation is still needed
- DeFi application parties (Raydium, etc.) publicly oppose SGP-0003
**③ PCE inflation data hotter than expected (3.7% vs expected 3.6%)**
- Fed rate cut expectations delayed
- Risk assets under pressure
**Current prices:**
- BTC ~$78,000 (almost unchanged)
- ETH ~$2,460
- SOL ~$97 (slightly down)
**Strategy judgment: unchanged.**
Nvidia’s beat should have boosted risk appetite, but the PCE inflation data offset this positive, so BTC is sideways. Even if the SOL proposal passes, it is a long-term positive and won’t be realized in the short term.
Continue to wait for a pullback; the first target level has not been reached yet. Tomorrow’s Jackson Hole meeting with Fed Chair Powell’s speech is the next key variable.ZEC has a maximum supply of 21 million, with about 16.8 million in circulation; BNB and SOL have even larger circulating supplies. In rankings, Zcash has surged into the top 11-12, indicating it has been revalued among similar assets. Why has it outperformed for a period? Major coins are already large, and growth depends on ecosystem expansion. Privacy coins have a smaller base, so once narrative and capital align, they have greater elasticity. Demand for BNB and SOL comes from usage, while demand for Zcash comes from "not wanting to be fully tracked." The two are not direct substitutes but different tracks. The privacy track has long been suppressed by regulation, with many delistings on exchanges and few survivors. Zcash ranking high indicates the market is reassessing its scarcity.
From big data: Over the past year, Zcash's gains have far exceeded most major coins; its trading volume at peak times accounts for a high proportion of its market cap, approaching or surpassing the relative activity of some large coins. This is not an illusion of low liquidity but capital rotation.
$ZEC
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ UNI stabilized on the fundamental bullish backdrop of V4 weekly fees hitting a record high, but the upward movement still faces key resistance from chip suppression and leverage liquidation risks.
After releasing positive signals in the past two days, the price is testing the key resistance above. The current structural driving forces are ranked as follows: cash flow binding brought by V4 weekly fees hitting new highs, growth in on-chain trading volume of RWA and tokenized stocks, and V4 Hooks' expansion proposals in AI and new public chain ecosystems.
The trigger condition for a bullish scenario is a volume breakout above the key resistance. When tokenized stock trading volume continues to expand and the ETH ecosystem remains strong, the upper space opens, and the structure shifts to being dominated by bulls. The signal that this scenario fails is a lack of volume support during the breakout, resulting in a false high breakout.
The trigger condition for a defensive scenario is an overall market pullback or severe volatility caused by high leverage. At this time, profit-taking concentrates at high levels, and $UNI will probe lower to find support. The signal that this scenario fails is the inability of short volume to release during the decline, causing the price to quickly stop falling at the support level.
The price structure failure point is set at the recent consolidation bottom. If it breaks below this level and real trading volume shrinks, it indicates an interruption in the capital inflow trend, and the overall analysis needs to be reassessed.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the volume changes when $UNI breaks through the key resistance and the sustainability of on-chain RWA trading volume.
#英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元Nvidia's financial report really makes it hard to point out any "poor performance." Q2 revenue was $96.2 billion, up 106% year-on-year; Data center revenue reached $89 billion, a year-on-year surge of 117%. Even more impressive, the company expects next quarter revenue to reach around $108 billion. Seeing these numbers, many might think: the AI rally isn't over yet, keep pushing. But I think we've actually reached a more critical stage now. Because the market no longer needs NVIDIA to prove: "Is there demand for AI?" The answer is already very clear. What really needs to be verified is: can these massive AI investments ultimately translate into sustained profits and cash flow? Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon are all frantically building data centers. Nvidia stands at the very core of this industry chain. The question is, if AI companies' capital expenditures continue to grow rapidly in the future but revenue growth on the AI application side cannot keep up, will a question arise: everyone is spending money on computing power, but in the end, who actually makes the money? This is why I paid special attention to one detail in this financial report: although Nvidia continues to maintain very strong growth, the company has also begun to face rising memory costs, supply constraints, and declining gross margins. The company expects gross margin to be around 74% next quarter, and may decline further afterward. So the current AI story has entered the second tier#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Core PCE stuck at 3.3%, GDP fixed at 1.5%: Not a positive sign, but a "hawkish sticky" situation
US report tonight:
Core PCE year-on-year 3.3%, month-on-month 0.2%, previous values and expectations all aligned
Q2 GDP revision 1.5% unchanged, economy slowing but not collapsing
September rate hike probability jumped from 36% to 42%, rate pricing shifted from "expecting overshoot" to "watching if stickiness allows further tightening"
Interpretation:
Inflation is not accelerating but still 1.3 points away from the 2% target; the economy is not in recession but not soft enough for the Fed to ease. This is the most frustrating "neither up nor down" scenario—no chance for rate cuts, but rate hikes are just out of reach.
The dollar and US Treasury yields rose on the news, gold plunged $60, BTC is caught between risk appetite and liquidity squeeze.
The real bombshell is Friday's Jackson Hole: How Waller will prioritize "inflation/employment/growth" in his debut, and whether he sets a clear threshold for "further rate hikes," will determine if September sees continued divergence or a unilateral repricing.
In short: The data itself is neutral, but "neutral" in an era of sticky inflation = hawkish bias. For the rest of this week, all assets are waiting for Waller to speak. BTC Price Analysis at 8:00 on August 27: $78,802 "Calm Before the Storm," Three Major Catalysts Set to Ignite the Market
As of 8:00 this morning, Bitcoin is priced at $78,802, down slightly by 0.24% over 24 hours, with an intraday trading range of $77,554 to $79,234. Yesterday during the Asian session, BTC briefly surged to $81,266, marking the highest level since mid-May, but then quickly retreated and is currently consolidating around $78,800.
The PCE data exceeding expectations was the direct trigger for yesterday’s spike and subsequent pullback. The US July PCE Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%; core PCE was 3.3% year-over-year, in line with expectations. The inflation data surpassing forecasts strengthened the Federal Reserve’s rationale for maintaining high interest rates—the market’s probability expectation for a September rate hike rose from 36% to 42%. Within hours after the data release, BTC fell from above $81,000 to below $78,000, erasing about $3,000 of gains. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index dropped 9 points to 65; although still in the “Greed” zone, market caution has clearly increased.
Technically, BTC is at a critical point of "moving average convergence." The EMA5 (78,842), EMA10 (78,804), and EMA20 (78,702) are almost perfectly overlapped—this is a textbook sign of an imminent directional decision, indicating a near-perfect balance between bulls and bears. Any breakout in either direction could trigger a trending move. RSI6 is 50.98, RSI12 is 56.35, and RSI24 is 54.87, all in neutral territory, leaving room for a breakout; KDJ values are K=56.4, D=63.7, J=41.7, with J slightly low. Multiple analysts identify $83,000 as the next key level—if BTC can hold above this, it may further test $100,000. The first support lies between $77,500 and $78,000; a break below could lead to a retest near $75,000.
On-chain data also shows the market is in a delicate balance. The SOPR, which measures the flow of profitable coins, once rose to 1.48, indicating long-term holders are taking profits at relatively higher levels. The Coinbase premium index remains negative (around -0.015), suggesting that spot buying from US investors has not yet clearly warmed up. Whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 depends critically on whether new spot demand can effectively absorb the selling pressure from profit-taking. The good news is that Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to a nearly five-month low, and funding rates remain neutral or occasionally negative, indicating this rally is driven by short covering and spot buying rather than new leveraged long positions.
Bigger catalysts are on the way. Within the next 48 hours, multiple events will converge: $6.4 billion in Bitcoin options will expire this Friday, with the maximum pain point near $78,000, meaning hedging flows could independently sway market direction; Nvidia’s earnings report has been released, with Wall Street expecting revenue around $92.3 billion—serving as a barometer for AI infrastructure spending, its performance will directly impact overall risk asset sentiment; the Jackson Hole central bank symposium will be held from August 27 to 29, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office.
Summary: BTC is consolidating with low volume near $78,802, with $78,000 as the core support line for bulls and $83,000 as the "touchstone" for trend reversal. The short-term pullback triggered by the PCE data exceeding expectations is not yet over, while the $6.4 billion options expiry and Powell’s speech will determine direction within 48 hours—if the options’ maximum pain point at $78,000 is decisively broken, it could trigger a chain liquidation; if BTC holds this level and ETF inflows continue, there remains a possibility of an assault on $83,000. Investors are advised to strictly control positions and wait for comprehensive macro signals before making trend-based decisions. 3. Trump's Crypto Chessboard: Three Pivots, One Goal
Trump's crypto policy is not a series of scattered benefits but a carefully designed game.
Pivot One: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—Hodl Only, No Sell.
On March 6, 2025, Trump signed an executive order establishing the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" and the "U.S. Digital Asset Reserve." The core rule is simple: the government-held Bitcoin will no longer be sold.
But note one detail: the executive order only requires "no selling," not "buying." Sixteen months later, the structure of the strategic Bitcoin reserve is still under debate—the Treasury and Commerce Departments are competing for control. The White House digital asset advisor's promised "detailed announcement" has yet to materialize.
The slogans are loud, but implementation is still in dispute.
However, on August 19, Trump softened his stance: when asked if he would purchase additional Bitcoin, he said the matter "has already been discussed." Moving from "no selling" to "possible buying" is a qualitative leap.
Pivot Two: Regulatory Framework—From "Crackdown" to "Embrace."
The Trump administration is pushing two initiatives:
First, the CLARITY Act—to legally distinguish between "crypto securities" and "crypto commodities." The Senate is expected to start the review process in mid-September. Coinbase's CEO revealed the vote is scheduled for September 15.
Second, new SEC regulations—to exempt certain token issuances from securities law registration requirements. Legitimate ICOs might be making a comeback.
The CFTC is also active: in May, it approved the first compliant Bitcoin perpetual contract and is advancing Hyperliquid's legal entry into the U.S. market.
Pivot Three: Stablecoins—Trump's Deepest Hidden Move.
This might be the most underestimated part.
The GENIUS Act, signed by Trump a year ago, requires all USD stablecoin issuers to hold cash or short-term Treasury bonds as reserves. The more stablecoins issued, the more money is used to buy U.S. Treasuries.
Currently, the stablecoin market size is about $300 billion. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen predicts it could reach $3.7 trillion by 2030. Citibank forecasts that if it hits $4 trillion, stablecoins will absorb about a quarter of the U.S. Treasury supply.
More critical data: banks hold about 8 cents of short-term Treasuries per $1 of assets, while stablecoins invest about 80 cents per $1 in government bonds. The same amount of money, when converted from bank deposits to stablecoins, results in a tenfold increase in U.S. Treasury purchases.
Trump's real purpose in promoting crypto may not be "to pump Bitcoin"—but to "ensure there are buyers for U.S. Treasuries." $ETH $BTC $SOL The current approach in the United States is very clear — integrating Crypto into its own financial system. This direction carries more weight than just slogans.
This time, the SEC has sent the crypto custody rules to the White House for review, which is actually quite significant. The new regulations propose to clarify how investment advisors and investment companies should compliantly custody $BTC and other crypto assets, while removing some restrictions considered outdated. The official regulatory agenda even labels this as "de-regulation," with the formal proposal expected to enter the stage in October.
The biggest significance for Crypto is the reduction of institutional frictions for traditional capital entry. If institutions can more clearly resolve the issue of "who legally custodies the purchased coins," the first beneficiaries will be BTC, $ETH, as well as compliant financial platforms and custody infrastructures like Coinbase and Robinhood. Previously, when Trump pushed the CLARITY Act, Coinbase's stock price rose about 6% in a single day, and related assets like Robinhood and Strategy also strengthened simultaneously, indicating the market is indeed sensitive to regulatory clarity.
My view: This is not news that will immediately pump prices, but it could be infrastructure positive for the next round of institutional capital expansion. In the short term, BTC has already experienced a big rise, so it is not recommended to chase highs based on a regulatory announcement; in the medium term, continue to watch BTC ETF funds, the final text of custody rules, and the progress of the CLARITY Act.After BTC broke through $80,000, the real big market rally has just begun
Many people think that BTC breaking through $80,000 is the end of the bull market, but I believe this is just the beginning of capital revaluation
The biggest difference between this rally and the past is not retail investors rushing in, but continuous inflow of institutional funds. After BTC stabilizes in the key range, mainstream altcoins like ETH, SOL, SUI, and UNI start rotating, and market risk appetite clearly rises
But the more it is this moment, the easier it is to make two mistakes: first chasing the rally, second going all-in with leverage. The real winners in a bull market are never those who buy at the lowest point, but those who know how to build positions and take profits in batches
I am now focusing on three signals: whether BTC can break the previous high with volume, whether ETH can continue to drive DeFi and Layer2, and whether SUI, SOL, and UNI can take over as the main altcoin themes
My view is very clear: the bull market is not over yet, but the rhythm has changed. What matters next is not courage, but position management and patience
#BTC #ETH #SUI #UNI #SOL #欧意星球 @热门话题$BTC Funds stall, options pressure: Bitcoin rebound quality awaits verification!
Bitcoin has climbed from the August low to $79,100, which looks promising, but on-chain data reveals that funds have merely stopped fleeing and are far from rushing in. The relative change in realized market cap has just turned positive at +0.21%, the first time since the end of May. However, this positive value is historically near the bottom, ranking only in the lowest 3%-4% range, indicating at best a "stop bleeding," not "blood transfusion."
A more concrete indicator is the 30-day apparent demand, which, although surpassing newly mined coins for six consecutive days, still ranks near the lowest 10% historically in demand strength. This means the market is indeed re-accumulating chips, but very hesitantly, like a person hungry for days daring only to sip porridge but not pick up the chopsticks.
What worries people is the movement of on-chain whales. Lookonchain revealed that an Ethereum giant whale dumped a position held for nearly two years entirely into Binance, with a paper loss exceeding $10 million. Such a liquidation-style transfer likely means they really can't hold on anymore, strongly smelling like a stop-loss exit, which is not a good sign.
Not to mention, this Friday, $6.4 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire. With such a large volume, market makers must desperately adjust hedging positions before expiration, making prices easily pulled back and forth, jumping around several key strike prices.
Overall, this rebound direction exists but the confidence is clearly insufficient. The market has shifted from panic selling to "standing by and watching," but it is far from a time to charge ahead confidently. Friday's massive options expiration is a touchstone; whether the spot market can hold and whether buying follows will directly determine if this breath is a recovery or just a short gasp. In the short term, don't rush to bet. $BTC $ETH
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 From "Scam" to "Bitcoin Superpower," What’s Behind Trump’s 180-Degree Turn?
In 2019, Trump tweeted from the White House: "I'm not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies; they are not money, their value is extremely unstable, and baseless."
In August 2026, the same Trump, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, told the CEOs of Coinbase, Ripple, and Gemini: "We have completely ended the war on cryptocurrencies."
Seven years, from "scam" to "Bitcoin superpower"—this is not just a personal awakening, it’s a carefully calculated strategic shift.
1. Three numbers that show how much Trump "loves" Bitcoin now
Don’t rush to be moved. Trump’s "love" comes at a price.
The first number: $905,000,000. As of July 31, 2026, Trump Media & Technology Group holds 14,139 bitcoins, worth about $905 million. Trump personally owns about 41.5% of Trump Media, with an estimated personal Bitcoin holding between 1,000 and 1,600 coins, valued at over $100 million. Forbes estimates Trump’s indirect Bitcoin holdings total about $870 million.
The second number: $1.4 billion. Income Trump has received from the family crypto business World Liberty Financial—including equity sales and token sale shares—exceeds $1.4 billion.
The third number: 328,000 coins. This is the amount of Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government, all seized through law enforcement—including Silk Road shutdown and Bitfinex hacker case recoveries. In March 2025, Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, pledging not to sell these bitcoins.
One person, simultaneously setting national crypto policy while holding nearly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin.
This is not "faith," it’s "alignment of interests." #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $ETH $BTC $SOL I've said twice that you can't short $BTC right now, but you got stuck and asked me what use that is 😂 I can only suggest cutting losses!
1. Don't think that BTC rising from 66,000 to 79,000 means it's at a high and that shorting is a sure win. Last year BTC was still at 120,000, and not many dared to short then.
2. Of course, if your stop-loss price is above 90,000, that's relatively safe and has a higher chance of success. Because I also think BTC will surge to 86,000 before dropping.
3. The net inflow of ETFs has already plummeted sharply, from 310 million down to 5.8 million. This shows the main engine driving the rally (institutional spot) has cooled off, and without new inflows, it's hard to break through resistance.
My view is still to focus on spot holdings and take profits on rallies. The short squeeze trend is still ongoing, so you can't open shorts; there's always a risk of sudden spikes causing liquidations. 昨天一天都没有看到一个像样的交易机会， 所以也只是在小规模试探， 但是晚上的时候各个消息面都预示着，英伟达的财报可能是一个潜在的交易机会。 个人比较偏多，但是并没有第一时间去做多， 因为往往好的财报出来之前，都是下跌的，而且下跌得非常难看，比如上次SKHYNIX, 觉得最大的消息面应该是英伟达财报。 早上5点左右的时候刚好醒了， 然后就拿着手机看了一下英伟达财报发布， 那个时候刚好是黄仁勋电话会议的过程中， 于是看到金十数据里面各种利好， 在看了一眼股价，直接一根穿针大阳线， 我果断先做多了，然后设置了一个前期低点的止损。 然后再回过头去好好看看财报细节， 看完后，我个人认为： 这次的英伟达财报的发布及市场反应逻辑与上一次美光财报(北京时间 2026 年 6 月 25 日 04:00)发布的市场反应很像： 财报前暴跌 → 财报超预期 → 盘后暴涨 → 次日继续涨。 但是有一点区别是，英伟达的财报的毛利率稍微偏空了一个百分点， 但是无奈电话会议里面黄老板说了：“ AI需求依然非常强 FY2028仍可能保持约70%增长”， 出现这个超级预期之后，资金重新买入，一根大阳线拔地而起。 现在操作Many people see the Korean stock market rise by 2% and assume that Asian risk appetite has warmed up. However, the Korean stock market is an independent market, and its rise does not equate to a strengthening of sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market or Asia as a whole. The true risk appetite must be judged by the actual market performance after the Hong Kong stock market opens.
2) Alibaba released the Qwen3.8-Flash model, which represents progress in AI technology but does not involve revenue or market application implementation, so its impact on Hong Kong stock valuations is limited. The rise in the Korean stock market is a localized phenomenon, and its correlation with the Hong Kong stock market remains to be verified. The SFC report emphasizes smooth connectivity between the Mainland and Hong Kong, which is a long-term structural positive rather than a short-term sentiment driver.
The bullish side: Southbound capital inflows show that Mainland investors' confidence in the Hong Kong stock market remains intact, and core stocks like Tencent and Meituan continue to attract attention, possibly reflecting a rebalancing of funds among Asian assets.
The bearish side: The Hang Seng Tech Index fell slightly, combined with no fundamental events supporting it, indicating that the market still has doubts about the short-term prospects of tech stocks and sentiment has not clearly warmed.
Continue to monitor the flow of southbound funds and changes in trading volume of Hong Kong tech stocks. Only if there is a clear improvement in earnings or policy implementation later could risk appetite potentially rise.
This is for informational and market scenario analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
Latest Data
Core PCE year-on-year is 3.3%, the same as last month, indicating inflation stickiness has not disappeared. $BTC 80583, ETH 2500, SOL $101, funds are all waiting and watching for the annual meeting speech, with increased market volatility.
Market Consensus
The data is neither hot nor cold, giving Powell enough room. Everyone is just waiting for a clear statement: how long will high interest rates be sustained, and when will rate cuts be considered.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Simply put, inflation has not worsened but also hasn't dropped quickly. If the speech is too hawkish, saying inflation is unstable and rates won't be cut, the crypto market may come under pressure; if the speech is more moderate, hinting at possible future rate cuts, risk assets are likely to rebound. Most likely, no clear timetable will be given, preferring to keep options open.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, just personal opinion, not investment advice)
Don't bet on direction prematurely; there will be more volatility during the annual meeting. Hold your current positions, minimize trading, and wait for the speech to land before making plans. 90-day earnings list reference | 08:30 · 08/27/26 Closing Overview - Nasdaq Composite Index: -0.08%, quoted at 26,130.20 - S&P 500: -0.02%, quoted at 7,675.70 - Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.21%, closed at 53,463.88 Market Review Overnight, U.S. stocks generally maintained narrow fluctuations, with bulls and bears entering a highly wait-and-see mode. July PCE inflation data was released, core PCE met market expectations, but overall inflation remained highly sticky, with the market slightly raising the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained high, directly suppressing valuation space for long-term stocks. Market funds are generally cautious, with all eyes focused on the speech by the Jackson Hole Central Bank Chairman. Before the major speech, institutions were reluctant to bet heavily on one-sided sectors, causing trading volume to shrink. Sector Differentiation Further Amplified: Industrial Sector Showed Relative Resilience; Healthcare and some tech stocks weakened. Fragmentation within the memory chip sector intensified, with previously accumulated profit-taking continued to be realized, and intraday sector volatility significantly amplified. Internal splits appeared in the AI main theme, with some high-valuation stocks cashing out, while computing hardware stocks still received capital support. Major Assets - US Treasuries: The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.649%, with long-term yields fluctuating high, and rate expectations repeatedly disturbed global risk asset sentiment. - Commodities: Crude oil prices fell sharply, with expectations of easing regional conflicts rising; Gold was smallThe number of $FIL short positions is about one-third more than the number of long positions again. From my understanding, most of these short positions should belong to miners, because if the price goes up, they can sell the spot they hold, and if it goes down, their short positions also profit, so it's a no-lose situation for them. Therefore, my advice is to stay away from this junk coin that unlocks 365,000 daily. What can you compare with the miners? When the price rises, miners sell their holdings; when it falls, their short positions profit. It's a no-lose trade.#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
PCE data is out, core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, unchanged from last month, with expectations also at 3.3%, no surprises or shocks.
Overall PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, slightly higher than the expected 3.6%. In summary: inflation is stuck and not coming down, remaining above the Fed's 2% target for 65 consecutive months.
Once the data was released, market expectations for a September rate hike rose from 36% to about 40%, and Bitcoin dropped directly from above 80,000 to below 78,000.
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The real highlight is Wash's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
The current situation is quite awkward:
· Bessent expanded long-term bond repos last week, trying to suppress long-end yields, but US Treasury yields barely moved, instead sparking a "currency devaluation trade" in gold and Bitcoin
· Since Wash took office in May, he has hardly given clear guidance; his last post-FOMC speech triggered a sharp sell-off in the bond market
· The 30-year Treasury yield at 5% is a critical threshold; if it can't hold, bigger problems will arise
What the market most wants to know now is: facing stubborn inflation and worsening fiscal conditions, what is the Fed's real stance?
If Wash signals dovishness—confirming the current rate level is appropriate and that Bitcoin's structural support under a weak dollar will continue—Bitcoin could surge to 82,000-90,000.
If he emphasizes inflation risks driven by oil prices (Brent has already broken $90) or defends the need for further tightening to meet the 2% inflation target, this rally could reverse immediately.
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Honestly, this Bitcoin rally from 64,000 to 81,000, a 17,000-point gain, has already priced in a lot of good news. A 23% increase, the best August performance since 2017. But much of this gain was driven by short squeeze liquidations, not genuine long-term capital inflows.
At this level, there is room to go up, but also significant downside risk. If Wash is ambiguous or leans hawkish, profit-taking could trigger a severe sell-off.
$BTC