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2026.8.27 Xingran Morning Gold Market Analysis
After hitting resistance at the previous high of 4696, the price pulled back and tested the low at 4596.50, where it found support. Currently, it has slightly stopped falling and is rebounding. The large bullish structure on the 4-hour chart remains intact, but multiple attempts to break the previous high have failed. There is heavy selling pressure above, weakening the short-term upward momentum. The market has entered a high-level consolidation and recovery phase. This is a minor recovery after a decline, not a direct reversal to strength. After the rebound, attention still needs to be paid to the resistance above. If the rebound cannot overcome the pressure, it will fall back again to test the support below.
Short-term strategy: mainly short on rebounds
Resistance: 4635‑4650
Support: 4596; if broken, the pullback will deepen again
Entry: short at rebound 4633‑4642
Stop loss: 4662
Target: 4610 → 4598 $XAU #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Nvidia fell 1.6%, so why did Bitcoin hold steady at 78,000? Veterans can tell something's off. On August 27, 2026, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower: the Dow fell 0.21%, the Nasdaq fell 0.08%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.02%, and Nvidia, which is about to release its earnings, fell 1.59%. But chip stocks rose more than fell, and the optical communications sector Lumentum rose over 6%—on what seemed like a "calm" night, the crypto veterans didn't sleep all night. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't be fooled by the Nasdaq's 0.08% drop. What crypto players really need to dig into is the internal differentiation of "Nvidia falls, chips rise, optical communications surges." What does this mean? This means the market isn't pessimistic about AI, it's simply that they hesitated to bet before Nvidia's earnings report. Sure enough, after hours, Nvidia's Q2 revenue was $96.2 billion, and data center revenue was $89 billion—both exceeding expectations—the earnings report was a light hit. But what about the crypto market? BTC hovered around $78,600, ETH hovered around $2,465, and SOL was at $96.92. No crash, but not crazy either. Coinglass data shows that on August 25, BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of about 3.98K BTC, GBTC had zero flow, and IBIT inflowed about 3.6K BTC—traditional funds haven't withdrawn, they're waiting for a signal. What signal are waiting for? Waiting for Nvidia's earnings to keep AI narrative alive, or to draw blood? That's what old age is#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
PCE stubbornly flat, Waller's Jackson Hole speech may set the tone for "higher for longer"
US July core PCE year-on-year at 3.3%, unchanged from last month and above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months. Although the month-on-month figure met expectations, the stickiness far exceeds market hopes. This data is extremely awkward for new Chair Waller's Jackson Hole debut.
There are currently two core contradictions:
1. Pressure from the Treasury market: long-term yields have surged, and Treasury Secretary Yellen has intervened in long-term bonds to try to suppress yields. But Waller has always believed the market should price itself, and this "Treasury vs. Fed" tug-of-war increases the difficulty of setting the tone.
2. Waller's hawkish nature: He has repeatedly emphasized "there is no soft inflation target, only 2%." Given his dislike of "forward guidance," Friday's speech is unlikely to provide a clear path and is more likely to express a tough stance on data dependence.
Market consensus is forming: the inflation midpoint has risen, and rates need to be "higher for longer."
This is the background we see: hard assets (gold up about 15% this month, Bitcoin breaking 80,000) are favored, and the dollar is weakening. If Waller acknowledges "considering rate hikes in the coming months," it will confirm this logic; if he continues to be vague, market volatility will increase. There's some data about this BTC wave that's quite counterintuitive.
The price surged from over 60,000 all the way up to around 80,000.
Yet, the futures open interest actually decreased.
The normal intuition would be:
With such a strong rise, everyone should be wildly adding leverage.
But in reality, many positions are being liquidated.
So this wave looks more like the price rising while simultaneously clearing out those previous shorts.
Price goes up,
but contract positions decrease.
I honestly didn't know how to interpret this combination before.
$BTCI know everyone is currently focused on $NVDA's earnings……
But did you know Landmark signed a 4-year CW agreement with a U.S. customer to ensure "adequate supply"?
So now you have:
- $LITE (capacity fully booked)
- $COHR (capacity fully booked)
- Landmark (committed capacity)
- $AAOI (transceiver capacity)
- $MTSI (not online)
- $SMTC (limited)
I remember earlier this year I said continuous wave lasers would be the next optical revolution but would be severely bottlenecked by Nvidia?
It's really interesting to watch all this unfold, with players signing long-term contracts through 2030 (which means fewer contract opportunities for other players).
This is very significant for $SIVE / Win Semi, as it is one of the few CW commercial suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers).
Let's see how they execute.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 Solana ETF pulls in $33.5 million in a single day: Institutional funds are redefining SOL's value anchor
In late August 2026, the US spot Solana ETF set the strongest capital inflow record of the year—net inflow of $33.5 million in a single day, maintaining positive inflows for five consecutive trading days, with cumulative net inflows surpassing a historic high of $1.22 billion. Bitwise's BSOL dominated 75% of the share with a single-day inflow of $25 million, while trading volume simultaneously surged to $166.8 million. Based on the latest data from platforms such as Farside Investors, SoSoValue, and Yahoo Finance, this article analyzes this "institutional buying flood" from four dimensions: ETF capital structure, price technical levels, on-chain fundamentals, and institutional adoption, to determine whether it signals a trend reversal or a short-term burst of concentrated sentiment. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
The Federal Reserve's key inflation indicator, core PCE, was released, showing data basically flat compared to last month, highlighting persistent inflation without a clear decline. Expectations for a rate hike in September have slightly increased, and the market's full focus has shifted to the Jackson Hole speech by Waller.
The data is not extremely overheated but also does not provide conclusive evidence of inflation improvement, effectively leaving the challenge to the central bank's annual meeting.
Optimistic expectations hope the speech will signal a dovish tone, confirming that high interest rates are nearing an end; the risk is that if the speech emphasizes stubborn inflation, it will reactivate the rate hike narrative, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise and directly suppress risk assets.
Personal view: PCE is just a prelude; the real short-term market direction will be decided by the wording of Friday's speech.
Currently, the crypto market is in an extreme greed zone with high leveraged positions. Whether the tone is hawkish or dovish, it tends to amplify volatility. Even if no rate hike is announced, as long as the option to tighten further is retained, it will trigger a market pullback; conversely, signaling a slowdown in tightening will help BTC and ETH continue to rally.
In practice, do not heavily bet on the speech outcome in advance; it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Holding spot base positions is fine, but leverage in contracts must be reduced, with close attention to the synchronized reaction of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. Before the speech, avoid chasing high-risk news-driven moves.$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Many investors focus only on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
But one of the most important trends to watch may be an asset that isn’t designed to rise in price at all: stablecoins.
The global stablecoin market has grown to roughly $300 billion, while banks and traditional financial institutions are increasingly exploring stablecoin-based infrastructure. 
This signals a potentially important shift:
Stablecoins are moving from being merely a crypto trading tool toward becoming part of global digital-dollar and payment infrastructure. 
Why does this matter?
Bitcoin is primarily about:
Digital scarcity and long-term value storage.
Stablecoins are about:
Moving dollar-denominated value on blockchain networks, 24/7 and across borders.
The deeper opportunity may therefore be one level below the token itself:
Stablecoin growth → more on-chain dollars → more blockchain transactions → greater demand for financial infrastructure.
There is another important connection.
Major stablecoin issuers hold large amounts of high-quality liquid assets, including U.S. Treasury bills. Continued stablecoin growth could therefore create additional demand for short-term U.S. government debt. 
Meanwhile, regulators are increasingly building formal frameworks around stablecoins. The U.S. has established a federal framework through the GENIUS Act, while the UK and Hong Kong are also developing regulatory structures for digital money and stablecoins. 
So I believe the next major crypto trend may look like this:
BTC = Digital Gold
Stablecoins = Digital Dollars
Ethereum / Solana and other networks = Financial Infrastructure
This is more important to me than simply searching for the next “100x token.”
The real questions are:
How much traditional money will eventually move on-chain?
Which networks will handle that activity?
Which protocols will capture value from real economic activity?
Don’t just study token prices.
Study where the capital is going.Look at these two data charts, the contrast immediately stands out. $BTC $ETH
Nvidia's earnings report has ignited the AI semiconductor and storage sectors, with global hot money rushing into US stocks. In contrast, the inflow of funds into the crypto space via ETFs has directly contracted.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
GBTC continues to see outflows, while altcoin ETFs like ETH and XRP are experiencing net inflows. The main coin's ability to attract capital has clearly weakened.
There is only so much capital; when one market's profit effect explodes, it naturally draws incremental funds away from the other.
It's not that the crypto space has no incoming funds, but a large portion of new incremental capital is being diverted to the US stock AI sector.
If the main coin wants to keep surging upward, without external large capital support, it can only rely on internal stock game.
In this environment, it's hard to see a one-sided violent rally; more oscillation and tug-of-war will occur.
⚠️ On-chain data observation, not investment advice# US Core PCE Holds Steady from Last Month, How Does Waller's Jackson Hole Speech Set the Tone? Core PCE Steady and Waller's Ambiguous Tone: Why Is Bitcoin Still Struggling Below $80,000?
On August 27 Beijing time, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the core PCE price index for July was flat month-over-month (0.0%), below the market expectation of 0.1%. This marks the first zero monthly growth in core PCE since early 2025. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Waller's speech at last Friday's Jackson Hole global central bank conference maintained a "principled dovishness with operational ambiguity" tone, refusing to provide a clear timeline for rate cuts. With these two major events combined, the $BTC market reaction was muted: the price briefly surged to around $80,500 before quickly retreating, and as of writing remains weakly consolidating near $79,000, with the key psychological level of $80,000 lost for the third time.
The further cooling of core inflation data, combined with the cautious stance of the central bank leader, should have been a "sweet spot" for risk assets. However, Bitcoin's actual performance reveals deeper concerns: expectations are being overdrawn, while real liquidity improvements have yet to arrive. This article analyzes why Bitcoin has recently struggled to hold above $80,000 from four dimensions: inflation data, policy signals, funding conditions, and technical structure.
1. Core PCE Steady: Why Is the "Good News" of Cooling Inflation Not Enough?
The core PCE price index is the Fed's most closely watched inflation gauge. July's flat month-over-month reading means that core prices excluding food and energy did not rise at all in one month, significantly easing market worries about "second-round inflation." The year-over-year growth rate also further declined to around 2.5%, close to the Fed's 2% target.
By component, core goods prices continued to fall, housing price increases narrowed month-over-month, and service inflation, though still sticky, showed marginal easing. Overall data supports the Fed starting a rate cut cycle in September, consistent with prior market baseline expectations. After the data release, interest rate futures showed the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rose above 90%, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut remained around 10%.
However, the Bitcoin market's reaction to this "positive" was extremely restrained. Within the first hour after the data release, BTC did experience a rapid rally, rising from around $78,600 to $80,700, an increase of about 2.7%. But the rally lasted less than two hours before the price quickly gave back all gains and fell below $79,500 again. This "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern indicates the market had already fully priced in the expectation of cooling inflation, and the actual data triggered profit-taking.
A deeper issue is that while core PCE holding steady reduces rate hike risks, it does not change the Fed's balance sheet reduction process nor lead to substantial dollar liquidity expansion. Bitcoin, as an asset highly sensitive to liquidity, cannot sustain price gains based solely on expectations of "inflation easing."
2. Waller's Jackson Hole Speech: Ambiguous Tone, Uncertain Path
If the core PCE data gave the market a direction, Waller's Jackson Hole speech intentionally or unintentionally blurred that direction.
Waller's speech can be summarized in three points: first, acknowledging significant progress on inflation and that the labor market is no longer overheated; second, emphasizing that future policy decisions will be "meeting by meeting," data-dependent rather than pre-set; third, remaining silent on the specific timing and pace of rate cuts, only stating that "if data continues to meet expectations, policy adjustments will be appropriate."
This "principled clarity but operational ambiguity" statement puts the market in an awkward position: everyone knows rate cuts are coming, but no one knows exactly when, how much, or for how long. For traditional financial markets, this ambiguity is tolerable because bonds and stocks can be priced by duration and earnings expectations. But for Bitcoin, which has no cash flow and relies almost entirely on liquidity premium and risk appetite, policy path ambiguity means a lack of valuation anchors.
More intriguingly, Waller specifically mentioned changes in "financial conditions." He pointed out that recent easing in financial conditions may "precede actual policy adjustments" and hinted that if the market overtrades easing expectations, it could delay the real rate cut timing. This was interpreted by some market participants as a "verbal clampdown" on risk asset rebounds. If the Fed intends to use expectation management to suppress asset price bubbles, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin will be the first to be hit.
Market reaction shows that in the two trading days after the Jackson Hole meeting, the dollar index stabilized and rebounded near 101, the 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly, and both gold and Bitcoin came under pressure. This indicates the market began reassessing previously overly optimistic rate cut pricing. For Bitcoin, policy path ambiguity means it cannot obtain sustained upward momentum from the macro level in the short term, and the repeated battles around the $80,000 level directly reflect this uncertainty.
3. Bitcoin Technicals: One-Hour MACD and 20-Day Moving Average Bearish Resonance
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's recent price action shows a typical "fast rise, slow fall" pattern, contrary to a healthy bull market rhythm.
Taking the last three trading days as an example: each time Bitcoin approached $80,000, the price surged rapidly in a very short time but then entered hours-long sideways and downward drift. The one-hour MACD indicator showed clear bearish divergence during these three rallies—price highs slightly increased each time, but the MACD histogram bars shortened progressively, and the DIF line repeatedly converged above zero before forming a death cross. This indicates short-term upward momentum is continuously weakening, and each breakout lacks genuine buying support. The 20-day moving average situation is even less optimistic. As of August 27, BTC's 20-day MA is around $79,900 and still sloping downward. Although the price has briefly risen above this MA multiple times, it has never closed above it effectively. Against the backdrop of a downward sloping MA, every rebound near the MA triggers both stop-loss and short-term profit-taking selling pressure. This "rebound fails to surpass the 20-day MA" structure is an important signal of a medium-term weak trend. $ETH The stablecoin market has stabilized around the $300 billion mark, with traditional financial institutions entering the space and driving up demand for short-term Treasury reserves. The current core issue lies in the bidirectional transmission of changes in the US dollar interest rate path to on-chain real yields and the liquidation system.
The UK's introduction of competitive stablecoin policies and the US banking sector's push for proprietary stablecoin issuance mark a shift in stablecoin attributes from a medium of exchange accelerating toward digital dollar infrastructure. This transformation is directly linked to the US Treasury market and dollar liquidity, with stablecoin issuers' demand for short-term Treasuries altering the traditional monetary policy transmission efficiency in the crypto market.
The factors driving this round of asset revaluation are ranked as follows: changes in the Fed's short-term interest rates, the expansion speed of traditional banks accessing blockchain settlement, and the narrowing premium of US stocks and high-yield assets. In a traditional low-interest income environment, the real yield carried by stablecoin vehicles directly determines the scale of on-chain capital accumulation.
The upward scenario is triggered when the Fed initiates sustained rate cuts. When Treasury yields decline, leading on-chain DeFi and RWA protocols to offer higher risk-adjusted returns, the $300 billion capital pool will accelerate flowing into public chain settlement networks and lending protocols, directly boosting the fee capture ability of settlement public chains.
The downward scenario is triggered when Treasury yields remain high or when safe-haven assets like gold divert funds. If the Fed prolongs the high-interest-rate cycle, institutions will continue to lock stablecoin reserves in short-term Treasuries. The lack of relative yield attraction for on-chain applications will cause a contraction in public chain settlement volume and suppress infrastructure valuations.
A sign of failure in this judgment would be regulatory policies imposing strict limits on the reserve asset categories of non-bank issuers or the traditional banking system establishing a closed liquidation system isolated from existing public chain networks.
In the next 7 days, key observations should focus on the short end of the Treasury yield curve, changes in the correlation between the US tech sector and crypto infrastructure assets, and the latest regulatory statements regarding compliance requirements for stablecoin reserve assets.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键US core PCE in July rose 3.3% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value and fully in line with market expectations. However, after the data release, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September still warmed up, with the probability jumping from 36% to about 42%. The US dollar index rose in the short term, putting pressure on gold and US stocks. However, the three major US indices only closed slightly lower—the S&P 500 fell 0.02%, the Dow fell 0.21%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.08%. Why is a seemingly complete chain of shocks running smoothly, so why is the impact so limited? Transmission logic: PCE → rate hike expectations → USD/US Treasuries → Risk Assets Core PCE year-on-year at 3.3% met expectations but was still well above the Fed's 2% inflation target, indicating persistent inflation. This has led to increased market bets on a Fed rate hike in September, a stronger dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and increased pressure on capital outflows from risk assets. This chain is the core path for PCE data to impact US stocks. The path of impact on US stocks Layer One: Valuation compression, tech growth stocks under the greatest pressure Tech growth stocks heavily rely on discounted forward cash flows. When US Treasury yields rise and discount increases, the present value of forward profits shrinks. Therefore, high-valuation sectors like AI, software, and semiconductors feel the pressure first. Second layer: Significant sector differentiation and pressureNassim Taleb raised a disturbing question in "Antifragile": What is the opposite of fragility? Most people would say: strength. But Taleb said otherwise. The opposite of fragility is not strength—strength is simply "holding on without breaking." The opposite of fragility is "antifragility": the more you are tormented, the more chaotic and stressful it becomes, the stronger it becomes. The glass is fragile; once broken, it's gone. Steel is strong; it can withstand it but does not become stronger. But your muscles are antifragile—you tear it apart, and after repairing, it becomes thicker than before. On June 17, 2016, Ethereum was cut for the first time. 2016: The first wound, The DAO, Ethereum's first star smart contract, was stolen by hackers using a recursive call vulnerability to extract 3.6 million ETH—worth $60 million at the time. The entire crypto world was waiting to see Ethereum make a fool of itself. A platform launched less than a year ago, and its largest application was hollowed out. Users were angry, developers anxious, and investors panicked. If this were a company, the CEO would come out to apologize, the board would reorganize, and then slowly decline. But Ethereum is not a company. No one came forward to apologize, and no one had the authority to make decisions unilaterally. The community reached a tough decision through on-chain voting, forum debates, and developer consensus: a hard fork rollback. This fork tore the community apart and split Ethereum Classic (ETC). Many said, "Ethereum is finished; chains that arbitrarily change rules have no credibility." But the opposite is true—Ethereum has not become weaker because of this wound; it has grown strongerMany people study the crypto market focusing only on BTC and ETH.
But the asset truly worth long-term attention might be one that seems to "not increase":
Stablecoins.
Currently, the global stablecoin market size has reached about $300 billion, and traditional financial institutions are accelerating their entry into this field. Recently, the UK has even further adjusted stablecoin policies to enhance the competitiveness of digital assets and payment infrastructure; meanwhile, the US banking industry has begun re-examining issuing its own stablecoins. 
Behind this is a very important change:
Stablecoins are evolving from being a "medium of exchange" within crypto to becoming the "digital dollar infrastructure" that traditional finance might use.
Why is this important?
Because BTC solves:
Store of value and digital scarcity.
While stablecoins solve:
How the dollar can flow on the blockchain 24/7, at low cost, globally.
What’s truly worth studying is the secondary impact:
If stablecoin scale continues to expand, it means more dollar assets enter on-chain.
And stablecoin issuers usually need highly liquid reserve assets, which may further increase demand for short-term US Treasury assets and others. Recent US fiscal policy and stablecoin regulatory discussions have already begun to show this linkage between financial markets. 
So I believe the future crypto market may see a very important structure:
BTC = Digital Gold
Stablecoins = Digital Dollar
Public chains like Ethereum / Solana = Financial Infrastructure
This is more worthy of study than searching for the next "100x coin."
The real question is not:
"Which coin will skyrocket?"
But rather:
How many dollars will enter the blockchain in the next 10 years?
Which public chains will handle settlement?
Which protocols can capture value from real capital flows?
If this trend holds, then the next wave of crypto opportunities may come not just from token price increases, but from:
Stablecoin growth → On-chain transaction growth → Public chain demand growth → DeFi and RWA expansion → Infrastructure value revaluation.
This is the structural signal I believe is worth tracking long-term.
Don’t just study coin prices.
Study where the capital ultimately goes. #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold?
After the recent on-chain data release, many were shocked. On one side, ordinary retail investors are continuously selling Bitcoin, cutting losses and exiting; on the other side, large whale addresses with significant holdings are quietly accumulating, and institutional funds are silently buying at low levels. This polarization is influencing Bitcoin's upcoming trend. Many retail investors don't understand why big money is entering the market when they are cutting losses and leaving. Today, let's break down the truth behind this chip battle.
Looking at the on-chain data first, retail investors' holdings have recently dropped to the largest extent since the end of 2024. After the previous sharp decline and the recent surge followed by a pullback, most ordinary investors' sentiment has collapsed. They either cut losses at low prices or painfully sell after chasing highs and getting trapped. Retail selling has provided an opportunity for big money to collect chips at low prices. Santiment's data shows whale addresses have net increased Bitcoin holdings by over $1.2 billion, and spot ETFs have also seen phased capital inflows.
Miners' actions are also interesting. Some miners have reduced holdings in stages when prices surged to realize some profits, while long-term holding miners maintain their positions. Market chips are gradually transferring from short-term speculative retail investors to long-term institutional and whale hands. This chip turnover often signals a market turning point. But it’s important to distinguish that short-term accumulation does not mean a big rally will start immediately; bottom building and chip exchange require sufficient time.
On the macro level, uncertainty remains. The high interest rate environment in the U.S. has not eased significantly, and Treasury yields remain high, suppressing risk asset performance. The anticipated vote on crypto regulatory legislation has been postponed to September, leaving a lack of major short-term catalysts to ignite the market. This is the core reason prices struggle to break through at high levels. Without incremental positive support, relying solely on capital games makes sustained rallies difficult.
For ordinary investors, the biggest taboo now is being driven by emotions. Retail investors always chase rallies and sell in panic—greedy when prices rise and fearful when they fall—falling right into the hands of the main players. If you are a long-term holder, don’t be overly anxious about short-term volatility; Bitcoin’s long-term value logic remains unchanged. If you are a short-term trader, don’t blindly bottom-fish; wait for chip exchange to complete and for the market to show a clear direction before acting. The market is always a place where a minority makes money; those who can endure loneliness can hold onto profits. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $SOL $DOGE $TRUMP The U.S. Treasury has officially released the stablecoin licensing rules under the GENIUS Act!
This is not a tightening, but a complete opening of the compliance door.
Want to issue stablecoins? You must be licensed, and reserves, redemptions, and audits all have to meet standards. Foreign capital wanting to enter the U.S. market must follow the same process.
The legislation has finally been implemented into enforceable rules, officially bringing dollar stablecoins from a gray area into the federal regulatory system.
Market impact:
Short term — Compliance expectations are clear, issuers like Circle can expand more smoothly, and on-chain dollar liquidity is expected to increase. $BTC is still consolidating around 78,600, $ETH is reacting noticeably more positively. Volatility may not immediately increase, but the narrative is leaning bullish.
Medium term — Stablecoins are the gateway for fiat to enter; with the gateway compliant, institutional entry costs decrease. Regulatory certainty improves, which has historically been a catalyst for crypto valuation reappraisal.
My view is bullish, especially for $ETH. Most stablecoins run on Ethereum mainnet and L2s, so licensing directly benefits settlement demand. For BTC, first see if it can hold the current range; if it falls below 76K, then watch macro sentiment.
There is a time lag between rule implementation and actual capital inflow, so don’t expect an immediate surge, but it is clearly a positive factor in the medium term.
(Personal opinion, not investment advice!)
#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ After a year, looking back at this article, the initial predictions about the main forces grabbing chips were very accurate, and they have taken most of the chips over the past year.
1. Platform fees have increased from 26 million at that time to 46 million now, accounting for 4.8% of the total supply (16% circulating), steadily burning, valued at 3.8 billion with a cost of 1.2 billion. The market provides a 3x leverage on realized income for hyperliquid.
Platform fees are becoming more diversified, including traditional contract and spot trading fees, half of hip-3 income, auction fees for spot and hip-3 seats, HyperEVM gas fees, and priority burning fees. AQAv2 and stablecoins as quoting assets on hypercore must regularly allocate 90% of the invested national debt income to platform buybacks, currently mainly 7 billion USDC, expected to be 300 million USD annually.
2. Non-circulating
Each node needs to stake 10,000 hype, and no new ones are currently open.
Hip-3, although less than a year old, has already seen a major reshuffle of ecosystem projects. The threshold was 1 million hype at the time, now 500k. Some have left because they couldn't continue, while newcomers have joined. Currently, tradexyz holds the vast majority of shares, HyENA persists, Kinetiq has two delegated staking markets, Paragon and EntropyIO have just entered. Felix, Ventuals, and Dreamcash have left. ABCDEx is unknown, not researched.
Additionally, there is now hip-4, a diversified prediction market just starting, requiring 500k hype to stake. AQAv2's Circle is no exception, also requiring 500k hype. It is obvious that more prediction markets and stablecoins will join in the future.
Users have also staked a large amount of hype (about 43% of circulation) to reduce fees and earn POS rewards.
3. Small shorts
How much upward force do shorts contribute? Taking the current price of 82 USD as an example, a 5% rise would liquidate $27.0M of short positions, which fuels the upward momentum.
4. EVM ecosystem
Besides gas fees already counted in platform income, EVM can provide users of hyperliquid-related assets with higher spot leverage and options markets. Recently, meme trading also requires adding to the hype pool. The smooth transfer and composable market-making capabilities between EVM and core will also promote demand for ticker auctions.
Moreover, ecosystem projects like tradexyz, nest, and pvptrade are actively using income to buy back and accumulate hype, working together, in stark contrast to other public chains that scam subsidies and dump tokens.
5. Ticker buyers
Besides the crypto-native VC coin projects estimated a year ago, there are meme projects and RWA projects buying US stock spot and hip-3 contract tickers, each period requiring at least 500 hype. With 562 seats per year, at least 280,000 hype will be burned, overlapping with platform fees mentioned earlier.
6. CEX
Currently, except for Binance, most CEXs have launched hype spot trading, accumulating hype through trading fees.
7. Whales
Besides those mentioned earlier in the top chip analysis like smartestmoney.hl who still hold, unfortunately loraclexyz has turned short. Of course, there is a new whale, Techno, who staked 2.4 million hype (0x4eb8d907136189a34c9b087950211b6a566f7819), but more details are omitted.
Additionally, retail and large traditional finance investors are also allocating hype through ETF products.
8. Institutions
Paradigm is not mentioned here.
a16z (Andreessen Horowitz): Associated wallets have cumulatively bought about 9.18 million HYPE (data as of May 2026), valued at about 356 million USD at the time, most of which are staked. They have become one of the largest external holders.
Multicoin Capital: Since February 2026, has accumulated over 100 million USD in HYPE, one of the largest positions in its liquid fund. Recently, there have been moves to transfer to Coinbase Prime (possibly liquidity management or reducing positions). Grayscale: Associated addresses have bought and staked HYPE (once buying about 25 million USD in a single week), and also issued HYPE-related ETFs. Galaxy Digital: Has direct purchase records and participates in treasury companies.
And so on.
Not only crypto-native market makers and institutions, but many traditional institutions are also involved through ETFs and dat companies.
9. Dat companies
Paradigm was identified early as one of the top holders, once holding over 19.14 million HYPE. Participated in PURR treasury company, some used for staking.
PURR currently holds 29 million hype, accounting for 9.8% of circulation. As mentioned earlier, many family offices and institutions in traditional finance have allocated hype positions through PURR.
Duquesne Family Office: First disclosed holding PURR shares worth about 23 million USD.
Renaissance Technologies: Globally renowned quant giant, increased holdings of PURR stock worth about 18.7 million USD.
Slate Path Capital: Tiger background fundamental macro fund, holding about 21.4 million USD.
Discovery Capital Management: Global macro hedge fund founded by Robert Citrone, holding about 10.3 million USD.
Balyasny Asset Management: Top multi-strategy hedge fund, holding about 3 million USD.
Wealth High Governance Capital.After Nvidia's earnings report released a strong guidance, the computing power cloud sector's $NBIS surged unilaterally from around 210 to 230, with the market experiencing intense fluctuations amid the battle between computing power endorsement and profit-taking.
The visible change in the market is that bullish chips completed concentrated turnover in a very short time, rapidly pushing the price up to a phased resistance area.
The core driver of this change is Nvidia's confirmation during the earnings call that the Rubin rack is already running on Nebius, with its data center generating nearly $89 billion in revenue in a single quarter, directly strengthening the market's risk appetite for computing power supply shortages.
The giant's earnings exceeding expectations have raised growth expectations for the entire ecosystem, but the optimism priced in early has also amplified the volatility sensitivity of high-level positions.
If buying can continuously absorb and digest floating profit chips above 230, the valuation premium of computing power assets is expected to continue expanding upward along with the industry's prosperity.
If high-level chasing funds stall and profit-taking concentrates, once the price breaks below the launch platform of the rally, short-term positions will face rapid liquidity contraction and pullback pressure.
If the actual delivery pace of computing power and subsequent gross profit realization fall short of expectations, the preference-driven rise triggered by the event will be repriced by the market.
The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is whether NBIS can form a stable turnover platform at the 230 threshold to confirm the strength of absorption.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #三星巨额回报遭抛售，市场为何不买账？ #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期News that a U.S. Treasury Department agency was hacked by Chinese hackers has directly raised market concerns about the stability of the U.S. financial system. This could trigger a short-term decline in risk appetite, especially before the Federal Reserve clearly signals a policy shift.
1) First, looking at price reactions: BTC down 0.33% in 24h, ETH up 1.48%, SOL up 2.66%. Overall volatility in crypto assets has increased, but directions vary, showing a differentiated market response to systemic risk.
2) The weight of three pieces of news: The SEC's proposed new crypto asset custody regulations may provide a compliance path for investment institutions but have not yet been implemented and still need validation; Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows of $2.08 billion over the past 5 trading days, reflecting institutional capital's continued allocation to digital assets; the hacker attack on federal agency networks exposed critical infrastructure security vulnerabilities, potentially raising doubts about the resilience of the U.S. financial system.
3) My view: Supporting factors include the continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs indicating institutions remain optimistic about the long-term asset attributes, and if the SEC rules are eventually clarified, they may enhance institutional trust in digital asset frameworks. The pressure lies in that if the attack is widely interpreted as a systemic risk signal, it could trigger global concerns about the stability of the U.S. financial system, thereby suppressing risk asset performance.
This is for informational and market scenario analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.$NVDA
NVIDIA's earnings report directly contradicts the bearish camp.
Revenue year-over-year +106%, data center revenue year-over-year +117%, with such a large scale still achieving an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase. Next quarter guidance is for 12% quarter-over-quarter growth, not yet including overseas data center revenue. AI demand is genuinely not slowing down.
A slight dip in gross margin during the session triggered a brief sell-off, but funds immediately flowed back, lifting the entire AI chain. The market is truly buying in.
For those holding MU and AAOI at a loss, this earnings report is a reassurance. $SNDK $MU
Positive sectors:
Optical communication: AAOI, LITE
Network chips: MRVL, AVGO
Storage: MU, SK Hynix
In contrast, AMD's situation is passive; NVIDIA's moat remains solid. #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
For AMD to break out with a big move, it must prove strength in inference chips, software ecosystem, major client adoption, and real market share. Relying on hype alone won't work.
⚠️This is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice ₿ BITCOIN: DON'T LET THE SEARCH FOR THE NEXT 10X MAKE YOU MISS THE LESSON IN FRONT OF YOU The market is always looking for the next big thing. 🚀 The next 10x. 🔥 The next narrative. 💰 The next opportunity. And when everyone is chasing what's next, something important gets ignored: What can you learn from what's already happening? Bitcoin doesn't need a new headline every day to teach you something. Every market move can reveal something. 📈 A rally can teach you about momentum and emotion. 📉 ZEC has recently returned to the spotlight, but market sentiment is not as simple as it appears. Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF was officially listed and traded, seen by many as a bullish signal, with peripheral funds eager to enter and take over. But if we extend the timeline a bit, we find that the coin's situation is far more complex than it appears on the surface. Let's first look at a detail that's often overlooked: ZEC's price manipulation has always been obvious. The tactics of large funds are not new—when retail investors buy, they quietly distribute their shares; when panicked sellers sell, they reverse and push prices up. This back-and-forth cycle essentially means trading against retail investors, rather than growing alongside the market. In other words, the coin's short-term fluctuations are often not driven by fundamentals, but are the result of capital games. Now, let's look at the fundamentals. In May this year, a vulnerability was discovered in ZEC's privacy pool, and even more worrying was the possibility that the token could theoretically be forged. For a coin whose selling point is privacy, this is almost a fundamental blow. Although the team later made repairs, once the cracks in trust appear, rebuilding takes much longer than expected. Large funds clearly realized these risks earlier than ordinary investors, which is why they choose to exit when good news is realized. Now that Grayscale ETF is listed, the news is widely known, and the sense of good news is becoming stronger. Retail investors see signals of institutional entry, while big funds see a window of abundant liquidity. Using public good news to cover distributions has never been true in the crypto marketRigid Expenditure and Cost Price of the Top 30 CORE Validator Nodes
⚠️ Risk Reminder: For information exchange only, not investment advice.
Key points first: CORE does not have traditional mining electricity costs. The so-called super nodes (top 30 validator nodes) costs in the market are divided into rigid cash operational expenses + opportunity cost of staked funds.
Mandatory entry condition: Must stake 50,000 CORE as a deposit.
1. Main Costs of Super Nodes
1) Hardware and Network: Validator node + backup sentinel + BTC relay server, medium-sized leading nodes have monthly operational costs of 700–1200 USD; large institutions with multi-datacenter redundant deployment have monthly expenses of 1500–2200 USD.
2) Bandwidth, continuous system upgrades, 7×24 hour monitoring and operation; institutional nodes have additional labor costs.
3) Implicit cost: 50,000 CORE locked long-term, occupying funds with opportunity cost.
2. Reference Range for Break-even
Medium-sized leading node cash break-even line: 0.012–0.015 USDT
Large top-tier institutional node break-even line: 0.016–0.018 USDT
At the current price level, purely calculating server cash expenses, leading nodes are still profitable.
However, after including the opportunity cost of staked tokens, overall returns continue to shrink.
3. Key Reminders
1) The break-even range is only a cash flow reference and does not equal a market bottom. Faith-driven large holders can sustain nodes with short-term losses; bearish market sentiment can cause prices to temporarily break below cost lines.
2) Core observation signal: If the coin price stays below 0.015 for a long time, continuously monitor the validator list to see if there is mass node exit or if candidate nodes no longer fill vacancies.
3) Small candidate nodes do not need to build their own relay, costs are lower, and they cannot be directly compared to the top 30 super nodes.
#CORE #BTCFi SUI's recent price performance has made many friends eager to "bottom-fish" panic. Rather than focusing on the market anxiety, it's better to focus on the source of the chips and see what the token's "factory cost" really is, which might give a clearer understanding of the current price range. From primary market financing data, SUI's institutional costs are astonishingly low. Series A participants have costs around $0.18, and Series B only $0.25. What does this mean? Even though the price has now dropped to around $0.7, for these early-stage capitals, there is still a full three to four times the unrealized profit on paper. With such a huge profit cushion protection, institutions face no psychological pressure to reduce positions or cash out in the secondary market. This explains why, in every rebound, we always see continuous selling pressure from above—more like early chips retreating in an orderly manner rather than panic selling. Turning our attention to the derivatives futures market, the contrast between bulls and bears is equally intriguing. On-chain data reveals this picture: over 600 retail addresses hold long positions worth about $35 million, with their average holding cost stuck at a high of $0.81, and their cumulative floating losses now exceed $2.2 million. On the counterparty side, about 300 major addresses hold equivalent short positions, with a book unrealized profit approaching $1 million. On one side are retail investors burdened with heavy burdens; on the other, they hold control and cost poleThe script for 2022 seems to cast a long shadow over the market in 2026. At that time, Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop in June, then launched a corrective rebound throughout the summer, finally making a decisive dip toward the $16,000 area before the cycle truly bottomed. Ethereum followed almost closely behind, following a similar trajectory. Now, when we look back at the present, Bitcoin has regained the $80,000 mark, and Ethereum has returned to around $2,500, but the market sentiment is subtly different from four years ago. What truly changes the narrative logic is how institutional funds enter the market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2 billion in net inflows in the past week, a figure carrying a weight far deeper than the price level itself. The rebound four years ago relied more on retail investor sentiment and the self-reinforcement of leveraged funds, but this round of recovery clearly adds an undertone of "allocation demand." ETF activity around Ethereum is also heating up simultaneously. Although their scale is still not as large as Bitcoin, the sloping direction of the capital curve already shows that traditional financial channels are becoming more concrete in their acceptance of digital assets. History often gives people similar illusions, but variables in the details determine the final direction. The 2022 decline was essentially a chain reaction of liquidity contraction combined with multiple leveraged actors defaulting; Meanwhile, the current environment—repeated geopolitical negotiations, unclear macro interest rate paths, and the ever-expanding capital expenditure expectations in the AI infrastructure sector—are all shaping a more complex market environmentZEC 这两天的走势，像极了一场多空双方互不相让的拉锯战。昨天价格一度冲上 867，今天却急转直下，直接被打到 751，单日振幅超过 13 个点。虽然周线依然保有超过 50% 的涨幅，但仅这一天，就回吐了将近 9% 的利润。这种速度，很难不让人警觉。 真正值得玩味的，不是价格本身，而是现货与合约市场之间那套完全错位的逻辑。现货那边，主动卖单几乎是主动买单的三倍，连续十二个周期都呈现净流出，说明筹码确实在往外走，是实实在在的抛压。可合约这边却完全是另一番景象，主动买入占了六成以上，大户的持仓不降反升，链上借贷量在十二小时内猛增近三成。一边在跑，一边在接，这种背离本身就透着一种紧张感。 更微妙的是杠杆内部的裂痕。交易所里的合约持仓量一天之内缩水 6%，已经跌入空头投降的区域，可链上借贷却突然放量。这说明什么？一部分大资金在止损离场，而另一批新的杠杆资金正逆势进场。有意思的是，现在新开仓位的费率几乎为零，连杠杆成本都省了，纯粹靠情绪在扛单。这种接盘越多，反而越像是在为下一轮下跌储备燃料。 从我的角度看，ZEC 的短期趋势依然偏空。如果 751 这个位置守不住，继续下探的概率会更大。反弹到 7Next up is Marvell
Now I'm actually especially looking forward to MRVL's earnings report.
NVIDIA has already proven that Compute demand hasn't peaked
If Marvell delivers another explosive earnings report, confirming AI Networking, 800G/1.6T, Custom Silicon continue to grow rapidly, then CPO is like getting two consecutive adrenaline shots.
Next, I'll focus on $AAOI, $COHR, and $AXTI to see if this wave can really turn into a major CPO rally.$CORE Core DAO Phase Analysis as of 2026-08-27, divided into four parts: "Market → Fundamentals → Catalysts/Risks → Conclusion," minimizing unnecessary words.
1. Market and Chip Status (Current)
Current Price: $0.025–0.0265, touched a low of $0.01678 on July 28 (historical low), down over 99% from the 2023/2024 highs of $4–6.
Market Cap: Approximately $27–32 million, circulating supply 10.1–12.5B / total supply 21B, ranked around #369 on CoinMarketCap, a typical small-cap altcoin.
Recent Momentum: Rebounded with the broader market in August, +49% on the 30th, +30% over 7 days, but retraced about -1~5% in 24h following BTC, purely beta-driven with no independent catalyst.
Technical Levels (Short-term):
Support: $0.0234 (Fibonacci) → $0.0207 (30-day moving average) → $0.0168 (previous low)
Resistance: $0.0266 → $0.0289 → $0.0378
RSI is neutral to slightly bullish, MACD daily golden cross but near zero line, 200-day moving average far above, indicating an oversold rebound plus range-bound oscillation, not a reversal.
2. Project Fundamentals (On-chain Activity)
Core’s positioning remains unchanged: BTCFi execution layer + Satoshi Plus consensus (BTC hashrate + CORE staking + non-custodial BTC lockup), EVM compatible.
Ecosystem Data:
TVL up 25% in the last 30 days; historically claimed to exceed $1 billion (including sidechain metrics), but core TVL on its own chain is only in the millions to tens of millions USD range, so separate hype from actual metrics.
Non-custodial BTC staking, lstBTC (liquid BTC staking), Dual Staking (BTC+CORE dual lock to increase yield) are active, with custodians like BitGo/Copper integrated.
Application layer 30-day fees about $589,000, base gas only $274, indicating real DeFi/staking activity is on the application layer, not wash trading.
Key 2026 Shift (Most Important):
Abandon pure inflationary block rewards, switch to a "BTCFi ecosystem revenue → CORE buyback" model, with SatPay fees, lstBTC fees, lending spreads intended for buyback, burn, or redistribution.
SatPay (BTC staking debit card/new bank) beta in March 2026, public test in July, over 20,000 on the waiting list, but revenue scale is very small, far from enough to support selling pressure.
Technical iterations: v1.2.0 hard fork, quantum-resistant ML-DSA roadmap, Testnet migration, development ongoing.
3. Bullish Logic vs Fatal Weaknesses
Stories to Tell:
If BTCFi narrative returns, CORE is one of the few L1s "tied to BTC hashrate + non-custodial BTC staking," offering differentiation.
If the revenue buyback model scales with SatPay/lstBTC, it could shift from inflationary to partially deflationary.
Very small market cap, easy for capital overflow during BTC strength to trigger 2–3x pulses.
Reality Crushing the Market:
81 linear unlock schedule: node rewards continuously released, circulating rate only 48%, constant new selling pressure above.
Buyback is still theoretical: current ecosystem revenue is at the million-dollar per month level, compared to hundreds of millions of new tokens released daily, buy orders are a drop in the bucket, no sustained transparent buyback ledger to date.
Thin liquidity: 24h volume $4–5 million, poor depth, price swings rely on market makers and sentiment.
Competition squeezed: Stacks, Bitlayer, Merlin, Babylon, etc. split BTCFi attention, Core lacks absolute leadership.
July Colend liquidation chain reaction + breaking historical lows, confidence recovery will take a long time.
4. Phase Qualitative Conclusion
Short-term (weeks): Watch if BTC can hold $78k–80k. If CORE holds $0.0234, expect continued consolidation at $0.024–0.027; if it breaks, look to $0.0207, then $0.0168 previous low. Without independent positive catalysts, rebounds are more for reducing positions than bottom-fishing reversals.
Mid-term (second half of 2026): The only hard metrics worth watching are three numbers—
SatPay real loan/transaction revenue (not waitlist)
On-chain monthly CORE buyback volume vs new unlock volume
Whether the native chain TVL can steadily surpass $100 million
Only if two of these three are realized can valuation reconstruction be discussed; otherwise, it’s "ecosystem activity but token price slowly declining."
Long-term: If BTCFi becomes a mainstream sector, CORE has a survivor chance; but returning to $1+ requires a 100x market cap revaluation, very unlikely, don’t anchor expectations on historical highs.
Risk Warning: Virtual currency speculation is strictly prohibited domestically; the above is for project tracking only, not investment advice; CORE is a high-risk small-cap altcoin, both zeroing and new highs rely on narrative, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. PCE is out, the rate cut dream is delayed again, Friday is the real big test.
Many were waiting for a PCE-driven rally, but the data came out with basically no big movement.
The US July PCE data is out.
Core PCE month-over-month is 0.2%, year-over-year 3.3%, exactly as the market expected.
Overall PCE month-over-month is 0.2%, year-over-year 3.7%, slightly higher than expected.
This data can’t be considered positive; fortunately, core inflation didn’t spike, so the market is temporarily stable.
But honestly, 3.3% core inflation is still far from the Fed’s 2% target, so don’t have high hopes for rate cuts in the short term.
Next, focus on Powell’s speech on Friday.
The Fed has already raised the long-term Treasury single repo cap from 2 billion to at least 4 billion. Now everyone in the market is waiting to see how Powell will position himself.
This PCE is just a small test; whether Powell’s speech on Friday is hawkish or dovish will dominate the big market moves in the coming months.
In this volatile market, avoid unnecessary risks; preserving principal is most important.
I’m still holding my $BTC position. Let’s see if there will be a crash on Friday.
PS: This is my personal opinion, not investment advice, trade at your own risk.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $NBIS Why the sudden surge
NBIS tonight jumped directly from around 210 to 230, it's not some random spike.
NVIDIA's earnings report explicitly mentioned Nebius, Rubin racks are already running on Nebius
The conference call also confirmed that AI Cloud demand continues to explode, and computing power is still in short supply.
Nebius's core business is building AI clouds, buying the latest GPUs, and selling computing power
So this time NVIDIA basically personally endorsed its demand logic.What’s most noteworthy about Nvidia this time is actually Networking.
Rubin is already in full mass production, and Spectrum-6 clearly supports pluggable optical modules + CPO.
After stacking hundreds of thousands or even millions of GPUs, network bandwidth and optical interconnects will only become more and more constrained.
Tonight $AAOI, $COHR, $MRVL have already started to race ahead
I’m increasingly convinced that the next phase of AI’s high elasticity direction might lie in CPO. From "Digital Gold" to "Yield-Generating Asset": CORE Institutional Edition Launches, Comparing Bitcoin's Long-Term Value and Short-Term Limitations
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article is for industry information exchange only and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, and product rollout timelines are uncertain. Please make rational and independent judgments.
Recently, CORE launched an institutional solution targeting professional capital, focusing on compliant BTC staking and lstBTC liquidity services, specifically connecting with custodial institutions, asset management companies, and family offices. This objectively breaks down the long-term value and short-term expectations of this news.
Long-Term Positive Logic
1. Directly addresses core institutional pain points: Many institutions hold BTC long-term in cold wallets and lack compliant channels to generate yield. CORE collaborates with leading custodians like BitGo and Hex Trust, allowing assets to remain within the custody system without transfer, using time-locked staking to generate BTC yield without cross-chain wrapping into WBTC. This mature yield solution is expected to increase traditional capital's willingness to allocate to Bitcoin.
2. Completes the BTCFi narrative system. Bitcoin has long been viewed mainly as a digital store of value with limited financial application scenarios. After institutional tools are implemented, BTC can participate in staking, lending, and liquidity certificate issuance, further broadening Bitcoin's acceptance in traditional finance.
3. Optimizes chip structure. Institutional holders no longer rely solely on buying low and selling high for profit; stable staking yields will encourage long-term funds to reduce short-term selling, potentially easing spot selling pressure in the mid to long term.
Short-Term Constraints to View Rationally
1. Institutional business implementation involves a lengthy cycle. Risk control reviews, system integration, and capital strategy adjustments often take months, so large capital inflows will not occur immediately upon product launch, causing a noticeable lag in positive effects.
2. The core drivers of Bitcoin's market remain USD liquidity, Federal Reserve policies, ETF funds, and overseas regulatory policies. BTCFi is a derivative narrative that can boost the market but is unlikely to independently drive price strength against macro trends.
3. Competition in the sector continues; many BTC layer-2 and staking solutions exist, and institutional funds will diversify, making it difficult to concentrate all capital in a single ecosystem.
Impact on the $CORE Ecosystem
Relying on the ecosystem's dual staking mechanism, BTC holders seeking higher yields need to stake CORE alongside BTC, which is expected to continuously generate token demand long term.
Key signals to monitor going forward: official cooperation announcements from leading asset management and custody institutions; steady growth in on-chain native staked BTC. Without real on-chain growth, market gains are likely just short-term sentiment spikes.
Trading Thoughts
Without a clear easing inflection in macro liquidity, it is unwise to rely on a single ecosystem's positive news to bet on a unilateral surge.
Over a longer cycle, the continuously improving institutional BTCFi infrastructure is an important foundational buildup for the next bull market, representing a gradual and long-term logic. CORE's market performance is closely tied to BTCFi sector momentum; continue to watch official partnership announcements and on-chain data changes.
$BTC $CORE #CORE #Bitcoin #BTCFi The overall US PCE in July rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both 0.1 percentage points higher than market expectations; the core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, meeting expectations but far above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. After the data release, the market's probability of a Fed rate hike in September jumped from about 36% to 42%, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose about 4 basis points, and the US dollar index broke through the 99 mark. This "rising rate hike expectations → holding dollars/bond yields rise → funds flow out of high-risk assets" chain is the core path impacting Bitcoin and US stocks. Impact path on Bitcoin First layer: rising opportunity cost Bitcoin does not generate cash flow; when the risk-free rate (US Treasury yield) rises, the "opportunity cost" of holding Bitcoin increases accordingly, and funds tend to flow from the crypto market to interest-bearing assets. About 42 minutes after the data release, Bitcoin fell below $78,000, with over 84,000 liquidations within 24 hours. Second layer: stronger dollar suppresses valuation The rise in the US dollar index naturally puts pressure on Bitcoin priced in dollars. Third layer: leverage liquidation amplifies volatility Bitcoin had surged to $81,000 within the month earlier, with substantial profits. The rising rate hike expectations triggered long position liquidations, and the thin liquidity in the derivatives market further amplified the decline. But it should be noted: this pattern is not an ironclad rule. The PCE year-on-year in May this year once reached🚨 NVIDIA earnings are out — but AI demand remains strong 🤖🔥
NVIDIA just delivered huge results beating expectations:
💰 Revenue: $96.2 billion vs. expected around $92.3 billion
📈 Data center revenue: about $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year
🚀 Next quarter revenue guidance: about $108 billion vs. market expectations around $104–105 billion
The message is clear: demand for AI infrastructure has not slowed.
But here’s the interesting part 👀
Despite strong data, AI stocks remain volatile. This shows that when the market has already priced in the “perfect,” beating expectations isn’t always enough.
For holders of $NBIS, $SNDK, and $MU, $NVDA’s results are fundamentally positive for the AI & semiconductor ecosystem, but short-term stock price movements may still be unpredictable.
📊 Strong fundamentals ≠ immediate surge. $BTC $ETH $SOL
ETFs have risen for seven consecutive trading days, with 88% of capital inflows occurring after price increases.
From August 17 to 25, 2023:
🟠 BTC ETF: net inflow of $2.38 billion, price up 25.69%
🔵 ETH ETF: net inflow of $899 million, price up 32.43%
The cumulative net inflow over seven trading days was $3.28 billion, with daily positive inflows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. This performance ranks at the 91.7th percentile of rolling seven-day windows since January 2024.
However, capital flows are following prices rather than leading them.
Only $392.9 million flowed in from August 17 to 18. After the Treasury buyback announcement on August 19, ETF net inflows surged to $2.88 billion, accounting for 88% of total inflows. The price increase during this period accounted for 86%.
On August 19, liquidations totaled $2.99 billion, marking the 8th largest liquidation day in history, with $2.6 billion coming from short positions.
After the squeeze, open interest remained high, ranking at the 95.6th percentile over the past 90 days from August 17 to 23. The average funding rate was only at the 60th percentile, leverage levels stayed elevated, but long position costs did not significantly increase.BTC rose 23% this week. Previously, the market was suppressed by cautious sentiment, with short positions piling up more and more. As a result, two large-scale liquidations directly shattered expectations: $1.37 billion was liquidated on the 19th, and another $739 million on the 21st. Notably, after squeezing out high leverage, the market did not immediately enter a crazier leverage-adding phase. Perpetual open interest fell back to 284,000 BTC, and the funding rate returned to neutral, indicating this rally was not purely driven by contracts propping each other up.
Spot and perpetual trading volume expanded by 188% over the week, CME grew by 152%, and net inflows of 31,740 BTC into ETFs and other products show institutional funds have at least started to re-enter for observation. Coupled with expectations around US long bond operations, the market has brought liquidity stories back into play, naturally making BTC the most sensitive direction. However, a strong rebound does not mean the trend has reversed. If volume quickly shrinks, ETFs turn to outflows, or there is insufficient support during pullbacks, sentiment can flip rapidly. The biggest mistake at such times is to treat a week's breakout as a risk-free reason to chase the rally.
I prefer to see this as a market structure repair: shorts were flushed out, capital warmed up, and risk appetite lifted. Going forward, don’t just focus on daily price moves; pay attention to volume, funding rates, and spot buying on pullbacks. Only if the market can withstand corrections can we say the trend is truly stable for $BTC
(This is personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)Grayscale ZCSH's first day trading volume was only $14.8 million, and the ZEC pullback is not over yet
Grayscale Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) debuted with a 1.54% decline on its first day, with a trading volume of only $14.8 million. Grayscale founder Barry Silbert had just called for "ZEC bullish at $8,000," but the ETF's first-day performance was disappointingly cold.
$ZEC fell from 889 to 770, a pullback of over 13%. For a coin pumped by Grayscale ETF expectations and short squeeze, profit-taking after the positive news is inevitable. The script of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" is once again confirmed with ZEC.
Grayscale is pushing the ETF, and DCG subsidiaries are also buying, but the first-day trading volume of $14.8 million indicates one thing — institutions are waiting for a lower price, not chasing the highs.
ZEC support is seen at 760; if it breaks below, it may test 700. But it's too early to say ZEC's decline is over — once the premium from Grayscale Trust converting to ETF compresses, the signal of renewed inflows will be the real buying opportunity.
Before short-term profit-taking clears out, every rebound is an opportunity for shorts to add positions. Hot topic across the network: Does ETH really have a chance to overtake BTC? 🔥
Current price $BTC 78575｜$ETH 2495, recent capital battles show ETH making a comeback, objectively analyzed with data + news.
✅ Core bullish arguments for ETH:
ETH spot ETF capital absorption continues to improve, combined with the narrative of RWA asset tokenization, PoS staking + burn mechanism brings endogenous deflation, ETH/BTC ratio is at a historical low, contract capital share for ETH steadily rising in this cycle, and a loose liquidity cycle makes it easier to achieve relative excess returns.
❌ Difficult to surpass market cap in the short term:
BTC spot ETF total scale and global consensus lead by a wide margin, institutions prioritize BTC as the crypto base asset. BTC’s digital gold store-of-value attribute cannot be shaken by ETH in the short term. The so-called "overtake" is most likely a ratio correction and relative strengthening, not a direct short-term market cap surpass.
Mid-to-long term forecast:
BTC relies on halving + ETF inflows, maintaining a long-term upward trend, this bull market is expected to challenge 100,000+; ETH is a high Beta asset, if RWA and L2 continue to roll out, this cycle’s gains will likely outperform BTC, but a true market cap "flip" is a low-probability event across major cycles.
Question: Do you think ETH will only outperform BTC in this bull market, or is there a chance to complete a market cap overtake? Share your views in the comments!
⚠️ Market review is for technical and news analysis only, not investment advice, strictly control position size in contracts.Short-term gold prices have fallen below the 1-hour Bollinger middle band. After facing resistance at the previous high of 4696, a pullback occurred, with a low probing down to 4583. Currently, it is a slight rebound repair after the decline, and the overall hourly level has shifted to a weak consolidation pattern.
Short-term support: 4595, 4580
Short-term resistance: 4640, 4657
Geopolitical risk news has emerged; news related to the US-Iran situation will bring risk-off pulses, likely causing short-term rapid spikes. However, after the recent inflation data, the overall market lacks sustained strong bullish drivers. The risk-off is more of a temporary disturbance and is unlikely to directly reverse the ongoing pullback structure.
Going forward, focus remains on US-related economic data, which will continue to dominate the medium-term direction.
Short-term strategy:
Lightly short near resistance around 4635-4640,
Set stop loss above 4650, with targets first at 4600, then further down to 4595-4680.
If it stabilizes near 4580 and shows signs of stopping the decline, take a small position to bet on a rebound; if it breaks below 4580 directly, do not bottom-fish, as downside space will further open up. $XAU #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 A detail worth noting recently in ETF funds: BTC spot ETFs continue to see large sustained inflows, while ETH spot ETFs have had net inflows for several consecutive days, but the size of individual transactions is significantly smaller compared to BTC.
Holding a position is really tough 😣
Institutional capital allocation strategies are very pragmatic; at this stage, they prioritize allocating the bulk to $BTC for major asset allocation, while $ETH is more for incremental speculative positions. It's not that institutions are bearish on ETH, but during a window of macroeconomic uncertainty, funds actively reduce the proportion of highly volatile assets in their portfolios.
This leads to the market phenomenon where the overall market doesn't crash, BTC holds its range, but ETH repeatedly oscillates and grinds down. Don't assume that inflows into ETH ETFs will automatically lead to a strong catch-up rally; the difference in fund size reflects the true market sentiment.$CORE's shift to public chain business real revenue generation and fee buyback logic, the core market contradiction lies in whether the inflation slowdown can offset the selling pressure released during the July payment application testing period.
From the event transmission perspective, the driving factors ranked by priority are: July payment application testing and normalized buyback implementation, August mainnet fee model upgrade leading to inflation suppression, and the effectiveness of multi-asset collateral locking long positions at the end of Q3.
The block production inflation incentive model is being tightened, and full fee collection buybacks directly change the secondary market selling pressure structure and circulation speed. The introduction of a dual-asset staking lock-up mechanism raises the friction cost of short-term exits, and risk appetite transmission depends on actual cash flow return data.
The conditions triggering the bullish scenario are: the July payment application public test starts as scheduled and normalized buybacks begin, while fee income significantly expands after the August mainnet upgrade. If the monthly buyback burn volume covers the unlocked staking volume, increased position concentration will drive price breakthroughs in dense chip areas, with quarterly buyback data forming the basis for judging bullish effectiveness.
The signal for bullish logic failure is: if the buyback scale after the July public test is insufficient to cover inflation selling pressure, or the multi-asset collateral function is delayed at the end of Q3, funds tend to clear positions early during the unlocking window.
The conditions triggering the bearish scenario are: July lending and payment applications fall short of expectations, user staking scale growth slows, reducing fee retention. When external business cash flow cannot maintain token scarcity, the inflation slowdown logic collapses, triggering a stampede of dual-asset staking position unbinding.
The signal for bearish logic failure is: institutional channel staking volume experiences explosive growth before stable circulation token adoption in September, forcibly locking market floating supply.
In the next 7 days, focus on observing changes in staking data and the inflow rate of funds in custody channels, as this indicator directly determines the base for buyback model activation.
#三星巨额回报遭抛售，市场为何不买账？ #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% for five consecutive times. The July FOMC meeting saw 3 dissenting votes, indicating internal disagreements over inflation persistence.
The latest PCE inflation remains significantly above the 2% target, long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the Treasury has intervened in the bond market through repurchase operations to suppress yields.
The market has priced in some rate hikes within the year, but since taking office, Waller has deliberately reduced forward guidance, emphasizing data dependence, avoiding "short-sighted" communication, and has established multiple internal working groups to review Federal Reserve operations.
As usual, we do not speculate on direction, so what are the market’s main expectations for the "tone"? I believe the core task of this speech is to rebuild market trust in the Federal Reserve’s commitment to fighting inflation, while continuing its long-term stance of reducing direct intervention and lowering communication frequency.
Possible signals to be released: reaffirming the firmness of the 2% inflation target
Emphasizing "no soft target, only the 2% target," inflation risks have not been eliminated, and the policy rate remains the core tool. If data do not cooperate, the option to tighten further remains, but a clear timetable or path may not be provided.
The market is fragile enough now; neither the Fed nor we want any form of hard landing. Last week’s market rescue actions were validated, and we are very eager for a dovish speech. If the tone leans hawkish, it will help support the dollar and suppress further runaway long-term yields; if it is vague or focuses on long-term issues, current bond market anxiety may continue 🤔
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ STX (Stacks) Bull Market Potential Projection
⚠️ Historical review and projection, not investment advice, altcoins are highly volatile
Background: STX is Bitcoin's native L2, focusing on Bitcoin ecosystem smart contracts; historical high at 3.83U; circulating supply about 1.81 billion, very low inflation, almost fully circulating, selling pressure comes from chip turnover rather than unlocking; highly tied to BTCFi sector heat.
Three scenarios (based on current price)
1. Pessimistic scenario (BTCFi narrative underperforms expectations, competition squeezes)
Multiplier: 3-5x
Trigger conditions: Overall bull market, but BTC L2 sector funds diverted, sBTC and ecosystem TVL growth moderate; STX underperforms mainstream altcoins.
Corresponds to: Bull market exists, but the sector does not become the market main theme.
2. Neutral scenario (BTCFi becomes an important branch, Stacks gains a considerable share)
Multiplier: 8-15x
Trigger conditions: Nakamoto upgrade dividend released, sBTC scale expands, Genesis Bond staking mechanism creates real STX demand; institutional funds allocate to Bitcoin ecosystem, STX gains Beta dividend.
This is the mainstream market expectation range, aligned with STX's performance in the previous bull market.
3. Optimistic scenario (BTCFi explodes, Stacks becomes the absolute leader of BTC L2)
Multiplier: 20-30x
Trigger conditions: Large amounts of Bitcoin stock assets enter the Stacks ecosystem; STX becomes a must-have Gas + staking bond asset for BTC ecosystem; the entire market speculates heavily on Bitcoin Layer 2 narrative.
Note: 30x is a low-probability event, requiring resonance of sector, macro, and product implementation, should not be taken as baseline expectation.
✅ Core bullish logic
1. Sector narrative dividend: BTCFi is a major trend, Bitcoin needs a smart contract layer, Stacks is the native BTC L2 leader, PoX directly anchors Bitcoin security, sBTC and Genesis Bond generate real STX lock-up demand.
2. Tokenomics advantage: almost fully circulating, no large team unlock selling pressure; inflation decreases annually, stacking staking locks part of circulating chips.
3. Historical stock-like behavior: last bull market from bottom to peak had nearly 100x elasticity, a strong cyclical altcoin with high bull market beta.
⚠️ Key risks suppressing upside (very important)
1. Intense sector competition: Core, RSK, and other Bitcoin L2s continuously compete; BTCFi sector is not only Stacks, funds will be diverted.
2. Buying expectations, selling facts: Nakamoto upgrade, sBTC, Genesis Bond are all narratives fully priced in by the market, implementation easily leads to profit-taking.
3. Ecosystem highly dependent on single DEX ALEX, overall TVL still small, real user base limited, fundamentals not fully proven.
4. Strong BTC correlation: when Bitcoin drops sharply, STX often falls more; bear market rebounds tend to spike and then fall quickly.
5. Consensus trap: BTC-L2 is now a well-known story market-wide, many retail holders, continuous off-exchange incremental funds needed to support, echoing your previous article's view: strong consensus does not equal easy trading.
Practical observation indicators (to judge if STX can break into neutral/optimistic territory)
1. After sBTC and Genesis Bond launch, whether real STX lock-up volume continues to rise, not just speculation.
2. Whether Stacks ecosystem TVL continues to expand, not just supported by one DEX.
3. Whether overall BTCFi sector funds continue to flow in, not just short-term hype.
4. STX/BTC ratio, only sustained increase in ratio means outperforming Bitcoin.
Summary in one sentence: STX is a high-elasticity BTCFi asset, neutral 8-15x is a realistic bull market expectation; above 20x requires full sector explosion, low probability; if sector funds are diverted, only 3-5x space. Biggest risk: narrative fully priced in early, benefits realized after implementation.
$STX $BTC#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 NVIDIA reports 96.2 billion, and today the Chinese A-share market only recognizes one line: the computing power hardware chain
At midnight, NVDA reported revenue of 96.2 billion, data center revenue of 89 billion, and a Q3 guidance midpoint of 108 billion. After-hours saw a deep V reversal to a gain of over 4%—the AI boom continues, the event has landed.
For the Chinese A-share market, this is not a "market-wide positive," but a structural ignition:
Direct high open beneficiaries: optical modules/CPO (Zhongji Xuchuang, New Easom, Tianfu), high-end PCBs (Shenghong, Hudian), liquid cooling (InWin), HBM memory (Lanqu, Jiangbolong)—NVDA data center revenue up 117% year-over-year; these are the only "water sellers" validated by orders.
Rising but easily differentiated: server ODMs (Industrial Fulian), domestic computing power (Cambricon, Hygon)—driven by sentiment but squeezed by cost pass-through and substitution logic.
Unmoved or under pressure: new energy, consumer, real estate—NVDA is unrelated to these; the A50 night session fell slightly by 0.16%, indicating the overall market index will not take off because of this earnings report.
Rhythm reminder: the A-share computing power chain has already priced in "earnings beating expectations" in the past two weeks. Today will likely be a high open → differentiation → volume watch, not a mindless limit-up. What can really hold is the Q3 guidance continuing to beat expectations + the hard logic of Rubin mass production; those riding the concept will see high opens as profit-taking points.
In a word: NVIDIA has extended the AI narrative’s life. Today, the main character in the Chinese A-share market is only the "NVIDIA supply chain"—everything else is just background. $NVDA $XRP surged 44% in one week, leading all major coins 🚀
From August 18 to 26, XRP climbed from around $1 to above $1.50, a 44% increase over seven days. In the same period, Bitcoin rose 21%, Ethereum 28%, with XRP leading the top ten by market cap.
🔥 Three drivers ignited simultaneously: The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, easing macro liquidity; high-beta assets showed the greatest elasticity. The SEC and CFTC jointly classified 16 digital assets including XRP and SOL as commodities, clarifying regulatory status. At the White House summit, Trump publicly pressured to push the CLARITY Act. ETFs saw nearly $1.6 billion net inflow over nine consecutive days, the Korean market was aggressively buying, and shorts were collectively liquidated.
📊 On-chain data also exploded—XRP’s active on-chain addresses soared from 47,000 to 356,000 in one week, a 654% surge. Options trading volume jumped 299%.
⚠️ But correction risks are real—after hitting $1.50, XRP pulled back to around $1.44, down nearly 5% in 24 hours. Leveraged longs are extremely crowded; once the price reverses, a 3-5% correction could trigger a chain liquidation.
Macro easing, regulatory loosening, and three streams of capital flowing in simultaneously created a triple resonance. $1.50 is the watershed; if it holds, the story continues; if not, leveraged longs will face the consequences. 👇 BTC ETH Observing the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum, feeling deeply moved! 📜
ETH broke through 2,500 with a single bullish candle, the super trend turned green, MACD golden cross upward, rising over 11% in seven days, this is the momentum of accumulated strength ready to burst! 🚀 Yet my heart remains steady, not joyful because of the rise.
BTC fell from over 80,000 to 78,000, the super trend is still red, but WR is low, MACD bars are shrinking, this is a high-level consolidation, not a sign of a crash. 🏔️ Also, not saddened by the drop.
The way of the crypto circle values steadfastness. Bitcoin and Ethereum are pillars of the community; one should "worry first about retail investors' concerns, then rejoice after the surge," avoid altcoin bubbles, hold firmly, and only then can one stand undefeated! 💪👊
$BTC $ETH $ETH at 3 AM, Ethereum's "stealth tower" surge silenced the shorts 🚀
On the morning of August 27, the main player on the market wasn't Nvidia, it was $ETH.
Last night everyone was holding their breath for NVDA's earnings report. After-hours, Nvidia made a deep V turnaround, lighting up risk appetite. Ethereum quietly gained momentum in the early morning—bouncing directly from a low near 2425 up to around 2491, a single surge of +1.7%+, following the script of "quietly breaking consolidation with one bullish candle."
Why this morning's move?
1. ETH/BTC ratio continues to strengthen, capital is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum
BTC reclaimed the 80,000 level, boosting risk appetite, but ETH showed stronger resilience this morning—ETH/BTC didn't drop, indicating this is an active push, not just a follow-up rise.
2. Continuous net inflows into ETFs, institutions are accumulating
Spot ETH ETFs have seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days (single-day inflow once reached +$180 million, nearly $700 million last week). Compliant buyers like BlackRock and Fidelity are quietly accumulating. The early morning surge reflects a "spot accumulation + contract short covering" double effect.
3. On-chain supply is tightening: high staking rate + low exchange balances
The buying isn't just volume churning. Exchange balances remain low, staking locks are intact, floating supply is limited, so even small buying pressure can push prices sharply.
4. Nvidia earnings "AI narrative lifeline" spillover
Nvidia's data center revenue at 89 billion and Q3 guidance at 108 billion mid-range keep the AI capital expenditure story alive—market mapping of "AI computing power + on-chain settlement layer" currently favors ETH (RWA, stablecoins, DeFi settlements all rely on it). Once Nvidia's call ended, risk asset sentiment was supported, and Ethereum took the opportunity to ignite.
Market language translation
2425–2430 is the support level tested but not broken in the early morning, bulls held firm
2490–2500 is a psychological barrier, touched this morning and held sideways, no explosive breakout or crash back, indicating "accumulation before breakout" rather than "bull trap and sell-off"
Volume expanded but not crazily large, indicating turnover-driven advance rather than a spike
Experienced traders know: after a week of consolidation + early morning volume surge pushing to the upper band + Bitcoin not dragging down, this setup usually leads to two scenarios—either a pullback to 2440 for a washout before continuing to break 2500, or grinding between 2470–2490 until US market opens to leverage Nvidia's momentum for direction.
A bold statement
Nvidia nails down "AI is still alive," Ethereum re-prices "how much the on-chain AI settlement layer is worth."
This morning's move is not the tail end of a rebound but a style shift test—the season where Bitcoin sets the stage and Ethereum takes the lead may come earlier than many expect.
(Short-term: don't chase highs; 2440–2450 pullback support is the trend-following level; only a firm break above 2500 counts as a true breakout, otherwise treat it as a range. The above market analysis is not investment advice; leverage with caution.) $ETH The full set of US PCE data was released overnight, overall stronger than expected!
Core PCE inflation remained flat without declining, and both personal consumption and durable goods orders exceeded expectations.
In short, the US economy still shows resilience, inflation has not cooled further, and the market's expectation for a quick rate cut has been directly dampened.
This is negative news for gold; in the short term, it is difficult for gold to rally sharply in one direction, and it is likely to face pressure and fluctuate. Avoid blindly chasing longs.
There is no major positive news for $BTC and $ETH; the rate cut expectation has been postponed, making it difficult for the market to explode directly. It remains a volatile pattern with back-and-forth consolidation $ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
Damn! Damn! The latest US PCE data has once again slammed the market to the ground!
Core year-on-year stuck at 3.3%, month-on-month 0.2%, almost the same as last month; overall PCE reached 3.7%, slightly above expectations. Consumption hasn't collapsed, income is still rising, showing strong resilience in the US economy.
The rate cut fantasy is cooled again, the probability of a rate hike in September rises, bond yields increase, gold is under short-term pressure, Bitcoin and Ethereum struggle to take off, continuing to oscillate in the 70,000 to 80,000 range, neither bulls nor bears should act rashly.
Core PCE has been above 2% for 65 consecutive months. Kevin Warsh once vowed to fix it, but no action has been seen yet. The market's attention is fully on Friday's Jackson Hole; the new chair speaks little and has cut all guidance. At the last meeting, three members voted hard for a rate hike, a rare scene.
X's view: The data is nothing new, the key is what Warsh says. If vague or dovish, the crypto market might breathe easier; if hawkish and tough, the 70,000 to 80,000 level might be breached.
Inflation isn't cooling, the economy isn't collapsing, the Fed has no reason to rush to ease. All eyes on Friday's performance.