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The data is out: core PCE for July year-on-year is 3.3%, basically in line with expectations.
The economy hasn't suddenly collapsed, but the market's expectation for a rate cut in September has actually dropped, with the probability of a rate hike rising from 36% to 42%.
In plain terms: inflation hasn't completely come down yet, so the Federal Reserve has to think twice before loosening.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 4.63%, so funding costs remain high for now.
So I think the market is a bit awkward right now: the economy isn't bad enough to warrant a crazy rate cut, and inflation isn't low enough to confidently ease monetary policy.
For the crypto market, it's probably not that easy to take off in the short term; we still have to see if upcoming inflation and employment data cooperate.
$ETH #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ Opinion Observation: Will the holdings of whales and the U.S. government force $BTC to rise in price?
In an interview with Bao Er Ye, this logic is very realistic: a large number of institutions, whales, and the U.S. government hold Bitcoin. If the market remains sluggish for a long time, it is difficult for huge chips to be sold off on a large scale. But the real market is not as simple as "the price must be pulled up to sell off."
According to public information, most of the Bitcoin held by the U.S. government comes from confiscated and forfeited assets. Past operations mostly involved staged public auctions, not a one-time full sale. Auctions are conducted at market prices and do not actively spend money to push the price up; they only observe market absorption capacity. If the market is sluggish, auctions will only depress the market, not force prices to rise.
Major crypto whales and listed companies also hold large amounts of $BTC. To sell at a high price, ideally, they need retail investors and incremental funds to take over in a bull market, but they do not have the ability to forcibly manipulate a long-term upward cycle. The market scale is no longer what it used to be; spot ETFs and macro dollar liquidity are the core factors influencing the market. Whales can create short-term sentiment but cannot counteract macro variables like Federal Reserve interest rates, inflation, and regulation.
For whales to sell, the premise is that there must be new buyers outside willing to buy. Without incremental funds, no matter how large the holdings, a sustained bull market cannot be pulled up; forcibly pushing the price with no buyers will only result in being trapped themselves.
What do you think? Do whale holdings mostly affect short-term sentiment, or can they really influence Bitcoin's long-term cycle? #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Where did the director go?
Tonight's US July PCE was disappointing; the director showed up but didn't contribute, with all figures flat compared to last month, breaking a two-month consecutive decline.
Core PCE annualized at 3.34%, with core goods at 2.3%, housing at 3.2%, and other services at 3.8%. Overall, it's still declining, but other services are dragging it down, mainly due to stock market-related service fees and AI-related prices.
After today's data release, the September rate decision meeting has become even more uncertain. The probability of a rate hike rose from 36% to 40%, then dropped to 38%, and the US stock market also fluctuated wildly.
Tonight's PCE will give hawkish members more reasons to raise rates, and Wash is very likely to join the hawkish camp on Friday.
Therefore, it is recommended to partially take profits on gold now and re-enter at the 4500 level.
Be cautious with tech stocks in both US and A-shares; consider reducing positions or waiting for the opportunity on Friday.
Tonight's Nvidia earnings report: the data itself is not important; what matters is the management's outlook for the entire industry during the presentation, which will affect expectations for tech stocks in the next phase.
I believe what matters more for the AI sector is Antropic's upcoming pre-IPO financial data, especially the outlook on data center construction costs vs. computing power leasing vs. Antropic's monetization revenue. This is the core of the entire industry chain in the next phase.
The data I have seen shows construction costs of $10-20 million per megawatt vs. computing power leasing fees of $30-40 million per megawatt vs. self-operated power generation of $50 million to $100 million per megawatt.
If this can be substantiated and market expectations unified, the next wave of AI can continue to rise, but I am skeptical about the last self-operated monetization estimate.
Overall, be cautious of risks before Friday; inflation hasn't eased the US debt crisis, so all eyes are on Wash on Friday.
But can we really count on the son-in-law?
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks. July PCE data released shows that overall inflation is slightly more hawkish, with growth leaning dovish, but not to the extent of moving towards stagflation deterioration.
Previously, the cooling signals from CPI and PPI inflation were not reconfirmed by the PCE data. Meanwhile, consumption data clearly cooled down, but income and savings improvements remain stable, not signaling an economic recession.
This week's macro framework mentioned that four dimensions of PCE should be monitored: core PCE monthly rate, annual rate, real personal consumption, and personal income.
In this data release, the core monthly rate remains somewhat sticky with minor impact; the core PCE annual rate remains stable at 3.3%, meaning there is still a large gap from the Fed's 2% target. Real consumption growth is 0%, significantly lower than June's 0.4%, indicating a clear weakening in consumption. Personal income is 0.4%, much higher than June's 0.2%.
The overall data combination shows that under inflation stickiness, income increases but consumption willingness decreases, with residents increasing savings capacity and reducing consumption. This data combination means the Fed has continued justification to maintain the current high interest rate environment.
Additionally, as mentioned earlier, although inflation remains sticky, the drop in crude oil prices has brought some optimistic expectations for inflation.
Going forward, weakening the impact of PCE, continue to focus on crude oil prices. If international crude oil prices cannot fall below 80 before the Fed's speech on Friday, another relatively hawkish speech may be expected! #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ I am Cige, and the AI industry chain is entering a period of intensive earnings reports. In the early hours of August 27 Beijing time, Nvidia, Synopsys, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta will release their results in close succession, with Marvell taking over in the early hours of August 28. Nvidia's statements on next-generation products and customer capital expenditures may impact the global semiconductor supply chain. On the software side, the focus is on whether AI capabilities can bring new orders and revenue, rather than just driving up R&D and computing power costs.
The key to this round of earnings reports is not just whether performance exceeds expectations, but whether the returns on AI investments can spread from chip orders to enterprise software. If hardware demand is strong but software monetization remains weak, AI prosperity will continue to concentrate on infrastructure. If both sides improve simultaneously, the market's assessment of AI commercialization breadth and tech stock valuations will be revised upward.
There is a clear correlation between BTC and Nvidia; Nvidia's earnings report is a key variable determining the market's valuation of AI hardware and capital flows. Whether to be bullish on AI computing power demand or cautious about valuation overextension, the earnings data will provide the answer. The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is shifting. Cige has finished speaking; you can savor it. #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX $SPCX is moderately bullish in the short to medium term
But 145-150 is the real tough battle
Capital is continuously flowing in, the put-call ratio has dropped to 0.51, the overall options structure is relatively stable, and market sentiment leans optimistic.
Call option open interest changes:
Call option open interest at strike prices 145, 148, and 150 has increased significantly.
But please note:
Most of these increments are from sellers, meaning the market does not believe SPCX will break above $145 before the September 4 expiration.
Key support is at 135
On the other hand, call options at 135 continue to increase, indicating bulls are entering positions at this level.
At present, $135 is the short-term bottom.
Short-term trading range:
$135 is the short-term bottom and the bulls' defense level.
$137-139 is a dark pool chip concentration area, forming the short-term consolidation center.
$145-150 is the upper resistance zone, where selling pressure is concentrated.
Key points going forward:
Support below is getting stronger, but to truly move upward, it depends on whether spot buying can absorb the selling pressure at 145-150.
If absorbed → opens up upward space.
If not absorbed → continues to grind within the range.
Short-term direction is bullish, but 145-150 is a tough barrier; wait for the market to give an answer before taking action.Gold's drop tonight was simply because the PCE data rekindled the small spark of "rate hike expectations," and gold, the "honest man without interest," was immediately disliked. 📉 Why the drop? Three heartbreaking truths 1. The data is "bad" to a level: tonight's overall PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the expected 3.6%. After the data came out, the market expects the probability of a rate hike in September to jump from 36% to 42%. Gold doesn't yield, and a rate hike means the opportunity cost of holding it increases, so it's normal to be disliked. 2. Too much to go up, you need to catch your breath: Previously, driven by the US Treasury's expanded bond repurchase program, gold prices once approached $4,700, hitting a new high in over three months. Analysts have said that the rally has "already seemed a bit excessive" from a technical perspective. You can't just go all the way to the moon in one go, right? 3. Geopolitical Calm Down: Iran and Oman renegotiated management of the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to fall. With the drop in oil prices, inflation concerns eased, and gold's safe-haven aura temporarily dimmed. 🔗 What does this mean for other assets? · US dollar & US Treasury yields: Both rose, the US dollar index rose 0.21%. Good data → rate hike expectations heat up→ both the dollar and US Treasuries are soaring—an old story. US stocks: All three major indices opened lower, most of the tech sisters declined. But tonight, everyone was waiting for Nvidia's earnings report, so the drop wasn't too steep. Bitcoin: At one point fell below $78,000 intraday. The recently strong cryptocurrency market has collectively pulled back, with over 83,000 people experiencing a surge in the past 24 hours"ZEC Spot ETF First Day Trading Volume Hits $14.8 Million_393,000 Old Trust Chips Conversion and the 780 Retracement Game Breakdown"
The world's first privacy coin spot ETF, Grayscale ZCSH, was listed on the NYSE, with a first-day US stock trading volume reaching $14.8 million.
After the spot price surged over 50% to a new high of $880, it quickly retreated to around $780 on the listing day.
This fund was migrated from the 2017 old trust, holding 393,000 spot coins, with underlying assets exceeding $260 million.
The long-term discounted locked old chips finally gained a channel to exit at net asset value, while market makers simultaneously hedged parity sell orders in the spot market.
Coupled with a high 2.5% management fee, early profit-taking accelerated turnover at the US market open, facilitating sufficient high-level turnover. $ZEC XRP rose about 44% over the past week, with its price once surpassing $1.50, making it the most outstanding performer among mainstream crypto assets recently.
This round of gains was mainly driven by three factors: first, continued liquidity easing, with the US spot XRP ETF seeing net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, including a single-day inflow of $23.87 million on August 25, accumulating a total net inflow of $1.59 billion, indicating sustained institutional capital entry; second, fundamental positive developments, as Ripple advances institutional credit fund RLUSD and expands business relying on XRPL, with Jeonbuk Bank in South Korea implementing its cross-border payment solution, significantly boosting market expectations for XRPL's real-world application; third, support from the broader market environment, with Bitcoin rising 23% over the week, overall crypto market risk appetite increasing, and XRP's inherently high volatility further amplifying its gains.
The current biggest risk lies in overheated leveraged trading, with Binance's estimated XRP leverage ratio rising to 0.21, the highest since January this year; its futures 24-hour trading volume exceeds spot volume by more than five times, with open interest around $3.45 billion, and long positions dominating absolutely. Therefore, a 5% intraday pullback in XRP is a reasonable capital realization behavior, the overall upward structure remains intact, but the market has shifted from the trend initiation phase to a high-level competitive phase.
$BTC $ETH $XRP #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The market feels pretty dull again. Right now, the key things to watch are the 4-hour chart correction and whether the current support level can hold. The CB premium still isn’t showing much strength, while the next wave of capital inflows remains a major concern.
Later tonight, after the U.S. market closes, Nvidia is also set to release its earnings report, which could bring some fresh volatility.
#PCEToJacksonHole
#BTC80KHoldOrFold
#AIEarningsWatch #OpenAI's self-developed chip debuts, inference cost becomes key Family, OpenAI has made a big move this time, the test data of the self-developed inference chip Jalapeno is out.
The performance is indeed impressive. On the GPT-OSS 120B model, Jalapeno outputs 1459 Tokens per second, 2.7 times that of GB200; end-to-end latency is reduced by 1.7 to 3.6 times; throughput per watt is 1.5 to 1.9 times that of the comparison system. This chip was jointly developed with Broadcom, uses TSMC's 3nm process, equipped with 6 HBM4 memory chips, total capacity 216 GB.
But there are a few details to look at carefully. First, this is an inference-only chip, not for training, different from Nvidia's general-purpose GPU. Second, the 50% cost reduction is currently only an early test estimate from Broadcom's CEO, not verified by a third party. Third, mass production schedule is small batch deployment at the end of 2026, large-scale volume in 2027—still some distance from true large-scale implementation.
For OpenAI itself, this chip can reduce inference costs, which is good for IPO valuation. Q2 revenue was $6.7 billion but operating loss expanded to $12.3 billion, with computing power costs being the major expense. Every bit saved counts.
For Nvidia, the short-term threat is limited. Jalapeno is for OpenAI's own use, not sold externally. But the signal is clear—major customers are starting to build their own chips. In the long run, if more AI companies take this path, Nvidia's pricing power will be challenged $BTC $BTC $ETH PCE annual rate at 3.7%, exceeding expectations. The probability of a rate hike in September soared to 42%. Negative data has materialized. The market hasn't crashed. All funds are waiting for Nvidia's earnings report. It's no exaggeration to say this is the life-or-death test of the current AI bull market. The market expects revenue to double and EPS to nearly double. But the capital market has never looked at the past—it's about future guidance. If guidance falls short of expectations, funds will rush out first. The tension in crypto is also at its peak: 81,700 BTC options expire, nominal value $6.44 billion, long-short ratio 0.83 Bullish positions are dominant. Whales have placed large buy orders at key levels of 75,000 and 80,000. Whether to aggressively push up through AI or to sell at high levels to harvest depends entirely on how the main players strategize. Retail investors focus solely on Nvidia's revenue and guidance, acting as the sole indicator. But the real core logic is that the global AI computing power arms race has begun. MiniMax's token consumption in July surged 20 times that of January, Alibaba completed an 80 billion HKD placement, fully investing in global AI deployment Samsung SK hynix increases HBM memory supply. AI hardware demand continues to surge. The current wave of AI-driven FOMO is far from over, but the risk on options delivery dates is extremely high. Don't go all-in. Either place low-level orders and wait for pullbacks to catch the needle, or wait for the market to truly break out before following the trend. Don't become the fuel for the market in these ups and downs. The market is always walking a tightrope of greed and fear. Tonight, either a new rally will start or the gamblers will finish it off. Which side are you on? Comment sectionPCE Data Released
The highly anticipated U.S. July PCE Price Index has just been released.
The overall PCE is 3.7, the same as last month. The core PCE, the most critical one that the Federal Reserve focuses on, remains at 3.3, also unchanged from last month.
This is a bit disappointing because the market expected the PCE to continue the downward trend seen in the previous two months, but this month the decline abruptly stopped, with the PCE stuck at this level.
Just yesterday, a Federal Reserve member, Collins, said that if he sees inflation data continue to decline, he could maintain the current interest rate. But if there are any signs that the PCE remains stuck at this high level, he would consider raising rates. Today's data fits his statement perfectly, representing the sentiment of most Fed members.
Unfortunately, this data is the last PCE release before the September FOMC meeting. This not-so-good, stuck PCE data will give many hawkish members an excuse to argue for a rate hike in September.
Moreover, U.S. Treasury yields are currently at a high level around 4.7%, and the entire bond market is focused on the upcoming speech by the new Fed Chair, Waller, at the global central bank annual meeting this Friday. His previous speech was seen as too soft, unwilling to give a clear rate hike signal, and he shifted all responsibility to the U.S. bond market and the five working groups he introduced, which the market viewed as weak.
This inflation data today has cornered Waller. The day after tomorrow, he must deliver a strong hawkish decision to the market, and he might even personally express support for a rate hike.
After tonight's data release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped directly from 4.623% to about 4.645%, moving toward 4.7%. This will put pressure on global stock markets, risk-free assets like Bitcoin, gold, and others. We can say that the previously expected bottoming action brewing in tech stocks has now been broken, and with the Fed continuing to tighten, the market may continue to decline.
Currently, whether it's U.S. or Chinese tech stocks, they have reached critical support levels. Once these supports break, with the upcoming massive financing of over 100 billion by Anthropic in September and October, and the hawkish September Fed meeting, market risks will increase significantly. Everyone must be aware of this risk.
At the same time, in a rate hike environment, there is no bull market. Any rate hike environment puts pressure on all assets, including Bitcoin and gold, so everyone should be mindful of pullback pressure.
The key highlight is the speech by new Fed Chair Waller at the global central bank annual meeting this Friday—there is only one path. If he can cleverly package this rate hike like the brilliant 1995 hike by the financial emperor Greenspan—whose rate hike was justified by the then impending internet boom to curb excessive economic overheating—then the market might first fall and then rise, ushering in a bull market.
If Waller can demonstrate sincerity in this rate hike through a strong performance, it could lay the foundation for the next AI-driven bull market.
The flower of hope blooms in the cracks of despair. Everyone must stand firm and steady; the future is promising.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.To be honest, no one can predict precisely. But based on your current position and discipline, I can calculate a reasonable range for you.
**Current base: ¥127,000**
Assuming BTC reaches $126K (up about 60% from $78.7K), SOL as a strong coin usually outperforms BTC:
| Position | Current Value | Conservative Estimate | Optimistic Estimate |
|------|------|---------|---------|
| SOL | ¥55,000 | ¥99,000 (+80%) | ¥137,500 (+150%) |
| BTC | ¥24,000 | ¥38,400 (+60%) | ¥45,600 (+90%) |
| ETH | ¥2,100 | ¥3,400 | ¥4,200 |
| USDT ¥40K built in batches | ¥40,000 | ¥56,000 | ¥68,000 |
| HYPE/PENGU | ¥1,080 | ¥1,500 | ¥3,000 |
| Contracts (500U separate) | - | ¥3,000 | ¥10,000 |
| **Total** | **¥127K** | **Around ¥200K** | **Around ¥270K** |
If BTC really reaches $150K, add another 30-40%, roughly **¥260K-350K**.
**But there are three prerequisites; missing any will greatly reduce the outcome:**
1. **The ¥40K USDT must actually be bought during pullbacks**, not hesitating to buy as it rises and ending up FOMO chasing highs
2. **You must hold your profits**, your biggest historical problem is selling as soon as you make a little. BTC had at least three 15-20% pullbacks from $78K to $126K, each time scaring you out
3. **Strictly execute stop-loss on contracts**, don’t let one trade wipe you out
**The biggest variable isn’t how high BTC goes, but whether you can hold on.**
The same SOL position bought at $97 and held to $200 might have dropped to $80 twice in between. Only those who can hold without selling can capture that doubling. Those who can’t hold sell at $110 and then watch it rise, regretting it.
So instead of asking how much you can earn, focus on one thing: **Don’t sell easily before reaching the target price.** Now BTC has climbed from around $63K all the way to $81K, then back to **around $79K**, still up more than 23% in 7 days. More importantly, in August, cumulative net inflows into US spot BTC ETFs have exceeded $3 billion, indicating that this round of rally is at least supported by spot funds rather than just leveraged pushing. So I'm actually less worried about whether BTC will soon hit new highs. What I'm more concerned about is: $BTC sideways trading → ETH continuing to rise → SOL/HYPE/XRP remaining strong → The altcoin market is beginning to spread across the board. Because only then can it be proven that funds are truly spreading from BTC to the entire crypto market. There are already signs starting to appear. In the past 7 days, BTC has risen about 23%, ETH nearly 29%, and XRP has even surged over 40%. This is what I've been waiting for: BTC is responsible for pulling the market up, ETH is responsible for the relay, and altcoins are responsible for amplifying the profit-making effect. But there is also a warning sign here—the market is starting to heat up. Especially since ETH's leverage has increased significantly. If BTC suddenly pulls back quickly, ETH and high-beta counterfeit assets will definitely be much more volatile than BTC. So I won't start crazily increasing positions just because I see a full rally. My rhythm is actually this: BTC holds $78K–80K → continue to monitor capital flows→ ETH remains stronger than BTC → mainstream altcoins spread→ then consider increasing counterfeit positions. If BThe US July PCE data is out. Simply put: inflation is still a bit high, and expectations for rate cuts have been dashed.
For Bitcoin, this is somewhat bearish.
High inflation means the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates, US Treasury yields are likely to rise, and market liquidity cannot be released, so $BTC faces short-term pressure.
For storage, it is also somewhat bearish in the short term.
High interest rates suppress tech stock valuations, and highly volatile tech stocks like $SNDK are easily affected.
But SanDisk still has its own fundamental logic; AI storage demand and storage prices are the core for the medium to long term.
Gold, on the other hand, is not significantly affected.
In short: PCE is more directly bearish for BTC and mainly short-term valuation pressure for SanDisk. Tonight I will focus on the trend and watch how US Treasury yields and the US tech stock sector move. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ The Crown Prince's mindset is good ——The earliest insider in the crypto circle
This Friday, $6.4 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire! The most "gambling" day on the entire network is coming
On Deribit, 81,700 Bitcoin options contracts expire, with a notional value of $6.4 billion, accounting for nearly 20% of the exchange's open interest in Bitcoin options.
Throughout the year, it's hard to find a bigger single-day gambling liquidation scene than this.
First, let's look at the bullish and bearish forces: 44,639 call options, 37,061 put options, put/call ratio 0.83 — bulls clearly outnumber bears.
Last week, Bitcoin surged from 62,000 to 81,000, rising $18,000 in a week, the second largest weekly gain in recent years, turning a large number of call options from worthless paper into in-the-money.
Now look at the concentration of firepower: $75,000 strike price piled up $236 million, $80,000 piled up $157 million, and more than $500 million in notional value is squeezed within 5% of the current price.
What does this mean?
Market makers' hedging positions are all concentrated at these price points.
Before expiration, the price will either be pinned near a key level and fluctuate back and forth, or once it breaks through, the hedging positions will accelerate the market sharply in one direction — speeding up the rise or the fall.
The most ominous indicator is the maximum pain point: $68,000.
This is the price that will turn the most options into worthless paper. It is $11,000 below the current price — meaning, for the bears to have the last laugh, Bitcoin must crash 14% within two days.
By the way, expiration is on Friday morning, and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium is also these days, with Powell scheduled to speak.
Options expiration + central bank big shots speaking together, you can imagine the volatility.
Options expiration doesn't decide the direction, but it decides who gets liquidated first#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？
Anthropic is telling the capital markets what might be the most aggressive growth story in the AI industry to date: a future addressable market size exceeding $30 trillion.
But first, let's clarify a potentially confusing concept—the $30 trillion is not Anthropic's valuation, but the potential market size (TAM) it describes to IPO investors. The current market discussion about the IPO target valuation is around $2 trillion, with the final figure still undecided. (qz.com)
What really catches my attention is not this exaggerated TAM, but that Anthropic's growth rate has become so fast that traditional valuation methods are starting to fail.
The company just completed a $65 billion financing round at the end of May, with a post-money valuation of $965 billion, and disclosed annualized revenue already exceeding $47 billion at that time; the latest reports show that by the end of July, annualized revenue had reached about $65 billion. (anthropic.com)
Even more aggressive are the future expectations.
According to Reuters, Anthropic expects revenue in 2028 to reach $190 billion to $200 billion. This means that if the market is really willing to give it a $2 trillion valuation, essentially it is pricing the AI productivity revolution about two years in advance at roughly 10 times the expected 2028 revenue. (reuters.com)
So I believe the real questions Anthropic's IPO needs to validate are not "Is Claude easy to use?" but three issues:
First, can AI truly transform from an auxiliary tool into the foundational infrastructure of enterprises;
Second, after rapid revenue growth, can computing power costs be diluted by economies of scale;
Third, and most crucially—will model capabilities ultimately form a long-term moat, or will they gradually become commoditized as competition intensifies?
If the first two hold true, and the third also holds, then the valuations that seem crazy today may not be crazy in a few years.
But if model prices continue to fall while capital spending on computing power keeps rising, then no matter how large the $30 trillion TAM is, it does not mean Anthropic can convert enough of that value into free cash flow.
This is also the most interesting aspect of this IPO:
Anthropic's listing is not simply about pricing an AI company, but forcing the entire market to answer for the first time—how much is "intelligence" itself worth in the AI era?
If it ultimately goes public at a valuation close to $2 trillion, will you see it as the starting point of the next super platform, or as a sign that the AI bubble has reached its peak?July PCE data is out, and this data is not particularly friendly to the market.
US July PCE year-on-year is 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%.
Core PCE year-on-year is 3.3%, in line with expectations.
It looks like just a 0.1 percentage point difference, but what the market really cares about is not this 0.1%, but:
Inflation has not fully declined in the direction the market hoped for.
The most direct impact is:
The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut may be suppressed again.
If inflation continues to stay relatively high, the Fed will find it difficult to easily shift to easing.
And once interest rate expectations tilt back toward higher levels, US Treasury yields, the dollar, and valuations of global risk assets will all be affected.
This is especially true for the crypto market.
Because this recent rally has just reignited market sentiment, and funds have started to spread into sectors like Meme, DeFi, AI, and the BTC ecosystem.
At this time, the appearance of inflation data higher than expected instead reminds us:
The market is heating up, but macro liquidity has not simultaneously become more accommodative. $BTC #US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
There is an interesting divergence in the current Middle East situation: the US continues to increase economic pressure, but diplomatic signals are showing signs of easing.
The US has recently expanded sanctions on Iran, targeting about 60 individuals, entities, and vessels, but it has not pushed the pressure to the extreme levels the market previously feared; meanwhile, Iran and Oman are advancing negotiations on a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, including temporary routes, mine clearance, and future strait management mechanisms. (Reuters)
This is also why crude oil has recently seen a noticeable decline. The market is no longer just trading on "sanctions escalation" but is beginning to reprice the probability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Brent crude has fallen back to around $86, indicating that some of the previously accumulated geopolitical risk premium is being squeezed out. (The Wall Street Journal)
However, I believe it is still too early to directly trade on a "Middle East resolution."
Latest data shows that actual vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below normal levels, with only about 5 bulk commodity ships passing on Tuesday, compared to an average of about 15 over the past 10 days. In other words, diplomatic expectations have moved ahead, but real logistics recovery has not fully caught up. (Reuters)
So what really matters next is not whose rhetoric is tougher, but three practical variables: whether the temporary corridor can truly be implemented, whether the US further relaxes blockades and sanctions, and whether tanker traffic can continue to recover.
If these three variables improve simultaneously, there is room for the war premium in oil prices to continue to decline; conversely, if negotiations break down again, the risk premium that the market has already sold off in advance could quickly return.
The market never truly trades the news itself, but whether the news changes future cash flows and supply-demand structures.
Do you think this round of talks is a genuine starting point for easing, or are both sides trying to gain leverage before the next round of bargaining? $BTC On the surface, this round of the market seems ridiculously lively, with bears repeatedly proven wrong, while bulls seem to be able to buy whatever they want. But those who really pay attention to the details of the market will find that the underlying structure is not so uniform; there is a wide river separating the strong and weak. Have you ever wondered why, despite the same bull market signals, some coins have already flown so far that they disappear, while others remain stuck in circles? Let's look at the numbers first. On October 10, 2025, the market ended the bear market with $246 million in short liquidations, and then opened the bull market with $1.678 billion in long liquidations. By August 19, 2026, short liquidations totaled $273.9 million, while long liquidations were only $24.8 million. This ratio change speaks volumes—bears are accelerating their exit, while bulls haven't yet developed a reckless frenzy. The most obvious thing I've seen in my recent market sentiment is that after multiple bottoms, open interest has started to rise continuously. This pattern isn't supported by a single big bullish candle, but rather by funds quietly turning, accumulating, and increasing holdings. Combined with BTC's 200-day moving average, which is firmly above 69,118, the underlying trend is indeed warm. But I don't want to stop at the conclusion that "the bull market is coming"—that's too lazy. What cares more about the strength differences between sectors is the difference. - The strongest players in this round are still BTC and ETH, serving as "safe havens for funds," with shallow pullbacks and rapid rebounds, clearly indicating institutions are continuously accumulating. - There is serious differentiation among altcoins; only those with authentic narratives and on-chain data can keep up; most others are passively followingUsing 20x leverage to brutally tear open a 200% profit on $UB is definitely not just luck, but a textbook-level volume-price game. The UB market has been extremely dramatic these days, perfectly illustrating what "peak and decline" means.
Carefully dissecting your opening logic, the entry point at 0.135 just hits the critical point where the bullish force is exhausted and the trend is about to reverse. UB previously experienced an almost vertical short squeeze rally, attracting a large amount of follow-up capital. But extremes reverse; when the price deviates too far from the moving average and volume starts to lag, a divergence signal at the top appears. You keenly captured this selling pressure, using high leverage to short with the trend, fully profiting from this technical correction.
Although the current paper profit looks impressive, facing such a highly volatile AI concept coin, you must stay alert at all times. The upcoming market will most likely enter a wide-range consolidation and shakeout phase, where the main funds may repeatedly pull to clean out chips. In terms of operation, it is recommended to withdraw the principal first, let the remaining profit "snowball" inside, and also set stop losses to prevent the bulls from suddenly launching a second short squeeze. Protecting the victory fruit is the key. $BTC $ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ The Crypto Market Fear and Greed Index has risen to 74, officially entering the greed zone, reflecting a significant recovery in current market risk appetite.
In the short term, the improved sentiment supports BTC and major altcoins, favoring a strong market; however, this value is already high, increasing the risk of blindly chasing highs. If the index continues to surge into the 80–90 range, the market is likely to show signs of overheating.
From the market perspective, Bitcoin maintains high-level oscillation combined with continuous net inflows into ETFs, indicating that this rally is not purely sentiment-driven and the upward trend has a foundation for continuation. Risk signals to watch include: new highs in coin prices but slowing ETF inflows, high funding rates, and rapidly rising open interest in contracts. Such divergences often signal an increased probability of a short-term pullback.
Overall, the short-term bias remains bullish, but the strategy has shifted from bottom-fishing to strictly controlling the risk of chasing highs. Once the index breaks above 80 into the extreme greed zone, it is crucial to guard against profit-taking and leveraged fund liquidations. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 The early session's two-coin short strategy was another textbook-level prediction
$ETH short in the 2470-2490 range, stop loss at 2520, target at 2430-2400
The market peaked at 2474, precisely hitting our entry range, not even touching the stop loss boundary, then immediately dropped all the way to 2431, exactly hitting the first target level, securing a 40-point profit in one trade
From entry point to defense position, from the direction of the pullback to the target range, every step was calculated precisely. It was clearly indicated that a small-scale pullback adjustment was established, the price deviated from the moving average and needed correction, so the decline was entirely expected; the market was just following our script
Unity of knowledge and action, self-discipline and caution. The strategy is set, execution is in place, and no matter how challenging the market is, it won't stop the path to profit
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 8.26 Gold Midday Review
Gold has fallen from a high of 4673 to around 4598, with a single-day pullback of over $50, significantly giving back previous gains.
Driven by profit-taking and hawkish Federal Reserve officials, short-term bears dominate, with hourly charts showing consecutive declines.
Currently, avoid blindly bottom-fishing; a rebound between 4625-4645 is a good range to set up short positions, targeting 4595-4575.
Note:
The above analysis is the personal view of Mu Yao. The market changes rapidly, and the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
$XAU 📊 $NEAR Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Long positions went from extreme crushing to sustained control, with leverage dropping from 1935x in an avalanche to a moderate recovery. The 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeded $890,000, with a concentration of only 60%, showing a V-shaped reversal...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $200,400 $200,300 $103.49
4 hours $264,700 $264,400 $376.40
12 hours $352,700 $338,700 $13,900
24 hours $899,900 $877,000 $22,900
In 1 hour, longs crushed with an extreme 1935x leverage, amounting to $200,300, showing extreme control; at 4 hours, leverage slightly dropped to 702x, amount rising to $264,400; at 12 hours, it sharply fell to 24x, amount rising to $338,700; at 24 hours, it rebounded to 38x, with liquidation of $877,000 for longs versus $22,900 for shorts, totaling $899,900. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 60% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. Long leverage dropped from 702x to 24x then rebounded to 38x, forming a V-shaped reversal. Although the short squeeze momentum has significantly retreated from extreme values, it remains in a strong range overall. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; do not blindly chase longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: The Fed's favored inflation indicator remains steady, Bitcoin oscillates after knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," and the U.S. economic "war" on Iran continues.
📊 Core PCE Steady Month-on-Month: Inflation Stickiness Unresolved, Watch for Waller's Jackson Hole Speech
On August 26, the U.S. Commerce Department announced July's core PCE price index year-on-year at 3.3%, unchanged from last month, meeting market expectations; month-on-month rose 0.2%, accelerating from June's 0.1%. The PCE price index year-on-year was 3.7%, also steady. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted consumer spending in July was flat month-on-month, failing to continue the strong growth momentum from May and June.
Inflation stickiness persists while consumption momentum weakens—this data puts the Fed's September rate decision in a dilemma.
The bigger focus is this week: Fed Chair Waller will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium at 10 PM Beijing time on August 28. Wall Street views this as the most critical window for Waller to restore Fed credibility. The market expects Waller may reiterate inflation risks and keep rate hike options open to rebuild trust. Against the backdrop of three dissenting votes at the July FOMC and public internal divisions, Waller's speech will be a key indicator for September's rate hike decision.
₿ BTC Oscillates After Breaking $80,000: After Short Squeeze, the Real Test Begins
Bitcoin surged to $81,237 on Monday, a three-month high, rising over 20% in the past week. However, it failed to hold above that level and retreated to around $79,000 for consolidation.
This rally was driven by three forces: the U.S. Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchase scale causing dollar weakness and reigniting the "devaluation trade"; continuous net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs; and large-scale short liquidations.
Analysts point out this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes. Whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 depends on whether spot buying can take over short covering. A successful break above the $83,000 resistance could open the way to $90,000; failure to hold may lead to a deep correction.
🚢 U.S. Expands Sanctions on Iran: From Military Strikes to "Economic War"
On August 24, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an expansion of economic sanctions on Iran to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology. Yellen called this move the "economic D-Day."
Meanwhile, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz shows subtle changes. Iran and Oman issued a joint statement proposing to establish a mutually agreed safe maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the strait remains closed, and the temporary agreement does not mean full resumption of navigation. Iran has previously stated that if the U.S. continues its economic war, no oil will be exported through the Strait of Hormuz.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Core PCE steady at 3.3% proves inflation stickiness remains unresolved; Waller's Jackson Hole speech will be the key indicator for September's rate hike decision; Bitcoin retreated after briefly knocking on $80,000, and whether the short squeeze-driven rally can turn into sustained buying remains uncertain; the U.S. shifts from military strikes to "economic war" on Iran, with progress in Strait of Hormuz navigation talks but far from finalized. $NEAR contract longs rebounded from a 702x avalanche to 38x, with cumulative liquidation of $899,900 and 60% concentration. Although short squeeze momentum has significantly retreated from extreme values, it remains in a strong range. As inflation data, central bank speeches, and geopolitical games converge in the same time window—the market awaits Waller's direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 Aave V4 in the last two weeks:
Weekly users: Up ~50x, now averaging 52K
User deposits: Up by $395M (2x)
Active loans: Up by $75M (~70%)
What's driving it?
@Aave is now powering EtherFi Cash, the fastest growing neobank onchain.
The integration is extremely valuable for both sides.
@ether_fi inherits audited, battle-tested infrastructure and governance machinery while preserving the Cash product surface above it (User Safes, Credit/Debit modes, settlement).
#DailyOrbit One question:
If a coin later rises by 100% to 200%,
did the market leave any signals before it truly took off?
Recently, I pulled records from the past week to create a leaderboard.
The results are quite interesting:
The highest single instance showed a +205.9% increase after the first abnormal movement.
All of the TOP 7 have already exceeded +120% in their historical highest gains.
Of course, it's easy to see the gains in hindsight.
The truly valuable question is:
Could these data have been detected in advance at that time?
So now I don't focus much on "predicting the next 100x coin," but instead continuously record:
Price anomalies
Volume changes
OI changes
Time of first abnormal movement
Subsequent performance after the abnormal movement
The more data accumulated, the more interesting this becomes.
I will continue updating this leaderboard.
No predictions, just recording the traces left by the market.
$ONG $TRUMP $HEMI $ENA After SOL broke $103, it retraced to $96: Liquid Staking surges +32%, price vs TVL starts to diverge
$SOL retraced from the $103 high to $97, down 4.4% in 24h, failing to retake $100 on the second attempt. Still up 13.6% over the week, and 18% over 90 days. Today's story is not about the price.
1. Liquid Staking surges. TVL at $5.74B, with Liquid Staking segment up over 30% in 7 days, Sanctum LST up 32.1% in a week. This is not retail chasing prices; institutions are deploying interest-bearing SOL exposure via LST — both AI infrastructure narratives and RWA entry require it.
2. Spot market is also active but shows divergence. SOL ETF has net inflows for 5 consecutive days, the largest this month; however, JTO is down 4.2% today — the governance token of the largest LST protocol is being sold while underlying TVL is soaring. Smart money is locking in yields, not speculating.
3. Price perspective. The $100-104 resistance band was not broken twice, RSI at 79 close to overbought, still 62% below the yearly high of $253. Overall, the underlying capital conditions are improving, but the price has already priced in gains prematurely; waiting for a pullback to $90-92 for a more stable reassessment.$BTC
This wave of BTC has already left behind a large group of people waiting for a pullback.
In the past few days, BTC has surged from over 60,000 to nearly 80,000, with the market seeing tens of billions of dollars worth of short liquidations; meanwhile, ETF funds have continued to flow back in.
But I actually feel it’s getting harder to trade now.
Because the previous rise had two strong fuels:
Short squeeze + ETF buying.
Now that the shorts have been largely wiped out, whether it can continue to rise depends on whether new spot funds are willing to take over.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Understand the problems and solutions:
Tokenizing real world assets and stocks does NOT make them censorship resistant it does NOT place them above legal systems or protect against nation state attacks and it does NOT solve for issuer trust.
This is not what tokenizing solves for.
What it DOES do is enable fast movement of assets in a much more frictionless manner than the traditional system. It DOES solve for the ledger.
#DailyOrbit $DOGE/USDT: 264M USDT in 24 hours, 6% swing with -5% net result. Only 21% are green, but the median position is -1.65%. Shorts are open but not aggressive.
Which force will break the game first — money or inertia? $BTC +37% from the lows
$ETH +60%
The rally has delivered, but the structure is starting to look stretched.
What fueled it? • US Treasury buybacks
• Progress on crypto legislation
• Softer SEC positioning
But there’s a key difference: most of these are sentiment/catalyst drivers not fresh liquidity
That makes the current move harder to sustain
I’m not calling the top — saying the risk/reward is changing.
At these levels, confirmation matters more than chasing momentum.
#DailyOrbit $BTC BTC Pulls Back to 77,700: Sell the Fact?
CPI data landed, in line with expectations. But BTC rallied to 81,200 then reversed to 77,700 – classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
The market structure has shifted. CPI-BTC correlation is fading – money flow now follows price momentum more than macro prints. ETFs posted 7 straight days of net inflows ($2.57B), which is solid support, but short-term profit-taking is weighing.
Takeaway:
77K is the bull's last standBitcoin cleared leverage at the 74,600 level. Now, at this position, consider gradually selling spot. In the next 3 to 4 months, it is highly likely to remain a wide-range oscillation market. The liquidity released by the US is similar to China's structural interest rate cuts in previous years. Gold and Bitcoin, which are sensitive to liquidity, have rebounded, but other tech assets are performing poorly. The final phase of structural rate cuts often results in a complete suppression, hurting businesses and individual residents, while government departments remain comfortable.$80K–$83K = Critical HTF Supply Zone. Rejection Here Risks A Deviation + Distribution Phase, With Bullish Structure Losing Confirmation.
HTF Close > $83K = Structural Breakout. Until Then, Upside Remains Vulnerable To A Liquidity Sweep And Deeper Retracement.
$BTC A model that scammed a bunch of people five years ago has doubled again after just changing its name
This afternoon while watching the market, I saw a number: on Robinhood chain, a protocol called NetNet Capital, its token NET briefly surged past $70 million in market cap, hitting a new all-time high, doubling in 24 hours with just over 100% gain. It has slightly pulled back now, reporting $66.48 million.
Looking at this gain alone, it’s not really surprising in today’s meme-fueled market frenzy. What really made me stop was one line in its mechanism introduction: the architecture is inspired by OlympusDAO v1.
Those words OlympusDAO should be familiar to anyone who played the DeFi wave in 2021. Back then, it went viral with the 3,3 game theory narrative and annual yields often in the thousands, with token price peaking over a thousand dollars and market cap reaching tens of billions. But we all know how it ended: the token price dropped over 90%, DeFi 2.0 went from buzzword to cautionary tale, and many who kept reinvesting with rebase and buying more as prices rose ended up losing even their principal.
Now this model is back. NET’s approach is that the treasury backs the token’s value with USDG stablecoins, and the smart contract hardcodes a rule that each NET must correspond to at least 1 USDG of risk-free value. If minting exceeds the treasury’s actual holdings, the transaction will be rolled back immediately.
This rule is indeed more rigorous than the barebones version back then. OHM’s treasury backing was more of a narrative trust, relying on the community’s belief that the treasury could hold up; this time it’s a hard constraint written into the contract, preventing over-minting on-chain. It sounds like the biggest pitfall of the old model has been plugged.
But I’m not sure this changes much. 1 USDG is the floor price, but NET’s current price is still far above that floor. What supports that gap? The answer is still new money coming in, the logic is essentially the same as five years ago. The contract can guarantee you won’t lose below zero, but it can’t guarantee you won’t catch the falling knife.
What’s more worth pondering is that this isn’t a coincidence for a single project. DTF, another OHM concept token, has a market cap of only $6 million but rose 107% in one day, also following the upward trend. A concept once sentenced to death now has several shells rising simultaneously on the same day, indicating someone is consciously flipping this old ledger.
I’ve always thought the most interesting thing about this space is right here. The same model, the first time it appears it’s called innovation; after it crashes it’s called a Ponzi; a few years later it reappears on a different chain with a new name, and some call it innovation again. That painful memory in between seems to have been collectively erased.
What do you think? Are the people chasing this round the same ones who chased OHM five years ago? Or is it precisely because they’re not the same people that this keeps happening over and over again? $BTC BTC falls back to 77700: Why did the CPI boost fail?
The CPI year-on-year at 3.4% met expectations, but BTC surged to 81200 before falling back to 77700 and fluctuating. The old relationship has broken — in the past three CPI releases, BTC volatility did not exceed 1%, and ETF buying is driven more by momentum than data.
Brief commentary:
83K is resistance; only a breakthrough can lead to a bull run; if 77K doesn't hold, look to 75K. ETFs have had net inflows exceeding 3 billion for 7 consecutive days to support the price, but profit-taking pressure remains. Wait for direction, don't guess.比特币在突破八万美元之后，市场情绪确实热闹了一阵，但冷静下来看，这轮上涨的根基并不像价格曲线那样平滑。一个容易被忽略的事实是，真正来自外部的增量资金并没有大规模涌入，眼下更多是场内既有资金在不同板块之间腾挪。换句话说，这不是一场普惠的牛市，而是存量资金在有限池子里的激烈攻防，板块之间的竞争只会越来越残酷。不少同时参与美股与加密市场的朋友反馈，跨市场操作的难度在明显上升，资金被套在美股里动弹不得，这也在侧面印证了当前流动性并没有想象中充裕。 比特币之所以能守住这个新台阶，很大程度上依赖机构资金持续通过现货渠道分批布局，相当于用真金白银托住了底部区域。但问题在于，向上突破的后续动力并不源自币市本身，而是要看外部宏观数据以及美元流动性的脸色。一旦外部环境没有给出更积极的信号，比特币自身主动上攻的意愿和能量其实是在减弱的，价格更可能在当前位置反复震荡、消化筹码。 与比特币形成鲜明对比的是以太坊。很多人习惯性地认为，只要比特币站稳了，以太坊迟早会跟上，但真实的市场逻辑远没有这么简单。在存量资金博弈的环境里，总量是固定的，当避险情绪升温、资金习惯性向比特币集中时，以太坊反而会直接承受资金被抽走的压Bernstein Bullish on Bitcoin at $300,000 but Cuts Target Price for Coin-Hoarding Stock
This afternoon, a research report from Bernstein stunned many. The firm painted a very long-term blueprint for Bitcoin, predicting it could surge to a historic high of $150,000 by mid-2027 and peak around $300,000 in this cycle by 2029. Their reasoning is that what they see as a currency devaluation trade is emerging, with money flowing into assets that can resist devaluation.
The so-called currency devaluation trade refers to the gradual dilution of fiat purchasing power due to fiscal and monetary easing worldwide, prompting capital to seek hard assets that can preserve value. Bernstein believes this trend is just beginning.
However, in the same report, Bernstein cut the target price for their favorite coin-hoarding concept stock, Strategy. They maintained an outperform rating but slashed the target price from $450 to $350, a $100 cut in one go. The reason was straightforward: Strategy is accelerating stock issuance to raise funds, causing rapid equity dilution that dilutes future gains.
Interestingly, Bernstein is not the only institution bullish on crypto these days. Jiang Zhuoer said the probability of Bitcoin falling below its starting point is very low, and Mizuho also said this rebound is of higher quality than previous ones. But no one else has put both bullish and bearish views in the same report like Bernstein did.
This is quite intriguing. On one hand, they see Bitcoin reaching $300,000; on the other, they cut the target price for the most aggressive coin-hoarding company. Those bullish on Bitcoin are not necessarily bullish on the company that issues stock to buy Bitcoin.
Simply put, Bernstein is betting on Bitcoin itself, not Strategy’s stock. Strategy’s logic is to exchange stock for coins and use coins to boost stock price—the faster the flywheel spins, the more new shares are issued. When Bitcoin’s rise slows, the dilution effect starts to outweigh asset appreciation. This time, the institution accounted for this at the equity level.
For ordinary people, there is a pitfall easily overlooked here. You might think buying coin-hoarding stocks is an indirect way to hold coins, but in reality, you are buying a company that must keep issuing shares. When the coin price rises, the total shares also increase, so the coins per share may not rise as much. Bernstein’s cut in target price essentially clears this accounting for the market.
What’s more subtle is the timing. This report was released just as Bitcoin had just climbed back above $80,000 and market sentiment was dropping from the year’s high on the Fear & Greed Index. The institution dares to give a 30-year outlook but discounts the stock returns for the next few years.
So what we should think about is not whether $300,000 will come, but whether the asset in our hands is Bitcoin itself or a diluted proxy. Even though both are called crypto assets, the underlying cash flow and structure can be vastly different. The most important distinction to make in this market is probably this.People often say Bitcoin will replace gold, but now they have combined.
Today, a new ETF quietly launched in Hong Kong, named MicroBit Bitcoin and Gold Value ETF. Its uniqueness lies in being Hong Kong's first fund that provides investors exposure to both Bitcoin and gold simultaneously; buying one share includes both.
This is quite interesting. In recent years, there has been ongoing debate in the community about whether Bitcoin is truly digital gold and if it can replace gold as a new safe-haven asset. Supporters on both sides have argued for years, but Hong Kong has directly packaged these two rivals into one product. Previously, you had to choose between gold and Bitcoin, but now someone has combined them for you.
What’s even more intriguing is the timing. Bitcoin has just bounced from over $60,000 back up to around $80,000, and market sentiment, measured by the fear and greed index, has climbed to a new high this year. Launching a product that ties Bitcoin and gold together at this moment clearly isn’t about short-term price swings, but about productizing a long-term demand for people who want to hold both crypto and gold but are too lazy to open and manage separate accounts.
For ordinary investors, the significance of this ETF isn’t about multiples but accessibility. Hong Kong’s regulatory pathway allows those unfamiliar with on-chain operations but wanting to allocate to these assets to do so through familiar brokerage accounts, without managing wallets, private keys, or cold and hot storage themselves. The trade-off is accepting fund-level management fees, and it doesn’t actually move the coins into your own wallet.
What’s truly worth pondering is the signal. Hong Kong’s moves in crypto over the past two years have been bigger than many expected—from spot ETFs to stablecoin regulations, and now this composite product—the path is becoming clearer. When Bitcoin and gold are placed into the same regulated basket, it shows that traditional finance’s acceptance of these assets has reached the stage of portfolio allocation, not just testing the waters.
So the question arises: when holding crypto and storing gold become two options within the same fund, will you still insist on choosing just one?MetaMask quietly earns millions monthly on others' turf
Many still think of MetaMask as just that old wallet used for storing coins and signing, believing it doesn't touch your money. But a newly released set of data has torn this notion apart.
According to HyperTracker monitoring, in the past 30 days, the top three earners in the Hyperliquid ecosystem's Builder income rankings are all familiar wallet brands. MetaMask ranks first with about $1.32 million, Phantom follows closely with about $1.26 million, and Trust Wallet is third with about $900,000. Further down the list, Invo earned about $660,000, fomo about $430,000, and Rabby about $230,000, all making the list. Just the top two wallets alone took over $1.2 million in fees from Hyperliquid's transaction flow in one month.
The so-called Builder Code is basically the wallet, trading front-end, or other entry points that can tag a source when a user places an order, then take a proportional cut of the transaction fee. Previously, this money was mostly earned by centralized exchanges, but now the chain has reversed, and wallets themselves have become rent collectors.
In the past, people thought wallets and exchanges were two separate paths. Wallets manage assets, exchanges handle trades, each earning their own. But with on-chain perpetuals moving trading onto the chain, wallets just need to connect an interface to run brokerage business at home. Users don’t switch apps, but the money flows through the wallet’s channel.
What’s even more intriguing is the user experience. When you click swap in MetaMask or make a perpetual trade in Phantom, you might not even realize that the fee for your trade is quietly flowing back into the wallet company’s pocket. The wallet is no longer the bystander that doesn’t touch your money; it has become the invisible broker for every one of your trades.
Behind this is a new narrative taking shape. When on-chain perpetual trading volume catches up to or even partially surpasses some secondary exchanges, the value of wallets as traffic entry points is being revalued. MetaMask and Phantom’s trading volumes in the past 30 days reached $1.4 billion and $2.29 billion respectively, which is no small matter. Whoever controls the user’s first app open holds the key to profit sharing.
But problems arise as well. As wallets increasingly resemble exchanges, can they still tell the story of pure decentralization and non-custodial service? Users entrust assets to wallets, but wallets start making money by guiding trades. The balance of motivation is quietly tipping.
Which wallet will be the next to be fed by the Builder mechanism? And every time we click the trade button, who exactly are we paying taxes to?Australia's second-largest pension fund is quietly cutting U.S. Treasury holdings
Australia's second-largest pension fund has made some interesting moves recently. This fund, managing about 370 billion AUD, equivalent to over 260 billion USD in assets, has quietly been increasing its position in the Japanese yen over the past six months, specifically when the yen approached 160 against the U.S. dollar. At the same time, it reduced its exposure to U.S. Treasuries by about 0.5 percentage points. This fund is called the Australian Retirement Trust, abbreviated as ART, and it is the second-largest pension fund in Australia by size.
A pension fund that should be the most conservative is actually moving against the trend when U.S. dollar assets are most sought after. The manager's logic sounds straightforward: the market may have overestimated the suppressive effect of energy prices on the yen while underestimating the possibility of a Bank of Japan rate hike. Currently, interest rate swaps show about an 80% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September, and a Reuters survey indicates that 57% of economists expect rates to rise to 1.25% in September. Buying the yen when everyone thinks it’s doomed is itself a signal.
More striking is its view on U.S. Treasuries. The fund is currently underweight U.S. Treasuries, listing several reasons: U.S. inflation remains above target, the economy still shows resilience, and the AI investment boom is competing with the government for capital. It even expects the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to possibly surge to 5.5%. In other words, it not only wants to avoid increasing exposure to U.S. Treasuries but is also betting that long-term yields will continue to rise.
This has a closer relationship to the crypto space than it appears on the surface. The cheap yen that has supported risk assets over the past year was largely sustained by carry trades. Once the Bank of Japan actually hikes rates, the unwinding of yen short positions will be like last August, dismantling the most crowded leveraged positions globally, with the crypto market often taking the first hit. A player managing over 200 billion USD starting to position ahead of this scenario is very telling.
We often say there’s nowhere to go for U.S. dollar assets, but the largest pool of real money is quietly preparing an alternative. When consensus is strongest, that’s often when prices are most expensive in hindsight. Where the money flows matters more than who shouts the loudest. By the time everyone realizes it, the price levels will have already changed.The whale who lost tens of millions by buying high and selling low is back after half a year
That mysterious trader who lost about $12 million by buying high and selling low on Ethereum half a year ago made a move again last night, and this time it was a heavy position with no hesitation.
On-chain data monitoring shows that address 0xD81a re-entered the market after nearly six months of silence, dumping over $5.3 million in one go to buy back 2,165 Ethereum at an average cost of around $2,463. The most ironic part is this: the last time he cut losses was by selling Ethereum at around $2,452, just $11 less, meaning he bought back the same batch at a higher price, effectively paying the market tuition twice.
In the community, this kind of operation is called getting slapped on both sides, but clearly, this is not the first time he’s done this. Some dug up earlier records showing that in several rounds, he almost always bought at relatively high points and sold at relatively low points, turning swing trading into a counterproductive contribution to the market. Ordinary people would hide and lick their wounds after a loss, but he, after six months of silence, didn’t test the waters with a small position; instead, he directly increased his position to an even heavier one, as if challenging himself.
So why did he choose to come back now? An unavoidable background is that Bitcoin has recently climbed back above $80,000, and spot ETFs have seen net inflows for seven consecutive days, with over $300 million flowing in just yesterday, clearly igniting market sentiment. Although the Fear and Greed Index fell from 74 to 65, it still remains in the greed zone, an atmosphere that easily tempts those who have suffered losses before to get back in, thinking this time they will get it right.
There is also a more subtle explanation. He might not care about that $10 price difference at all but is convinced of the mid-to-long-term direction and is willing to replenish his position at a higher cost. After all, as Ethereum climbed from $62,000 to $80,000, many institutions and whales who had exited quietly started to buy back, and he may not be the last one to sober up.
But let’s be clear. Everything on-chain is transparent; who is doing what is obvious, but understanding it doesn’t mean you can copy it correctly. An address that lost tens of millions buying again is neither bullish nor bearish; it’s just another vivid example reminding you not to follow others blindly. The real question is, when you see an address building a large position, are you buying along with it, or are you asking why it’s buying? The answers to these two questions are worlds apart.$6.4 Billion Options Expiry: Bitcoin at 80K Hanging by a Thread
This Friday at 4 PM Beijing time, about 81,700 Bitcoin options will expire on Deribit, with a notional value close to $6.44 billion. This figure represents one of the largest single-week expiries in recent times, and the most critical strike prices are right at the $75,000 and $80,000 levels.
It's a bit ironic. Just last week, Bitcoin was hovering around $62,000, then surged to $80,000 within a week, rising nearly 30%. This surge pushed a large number of previously out-of-the-money call options directly into the money. Market makers suddenly found themselves holding a large amount of positions that needed hedging, and the pressure quickly mounted.
The current market structure is very delicate. There are about 44,600 call options and 37,100 put options, with a Put/Call ratio of only 0.83, indicating an overall bullish bias. But bullish doesn't mean stable. What really keeps traders awake at night is the invisible pull as expiration approaches.
This expiry is closely watched because Deribit alone accounts for the majority of global Bitcoin options trading. Every large expiry is a covert battle between market makers and institutions. Retail investors only see the candlestick movements, but behind the scenes, it's a repricing of contracts worth tens of billions of dollars.
Options within 5% of the current price have a notional value exceeding $500 million. Once these contracts enter the expiry window, market makers hedge their risks by repeatedly buying and selling spot near key strike prices, resulting in the price being pinned around integer levels like 80,000. This is known in the industry as the Gamma pinning effect.
The problem is, once the pin breaks, the reaction can be just as dramatic. If the 80,000 level is effectively breached, the suppressed gamma will accelerate in that direction, causing volatility to spike instantly. Bitcoin is currently hovering around 78,800, down about 2% in 24 hours, having just touched 80,000 before retreating.
Retail investors are often most prone to getting caught up at this time. The Fear and Greed Index just dropped from 74 to 65, still in the greed zone, indicating sentiment hasn't truly cooled. On one side is a record options expiry, on the other is ongoing frenzy—this combination is prone to sharp, spike-like moves.
So what should we be thinking? After this $6.4 billion expiry, will the market remain pinned at 80,000, or will it tear open a gap? The hedging actions of big money are invisible to ordinary people, but the price will speak for them.
At 4 PM this Friday, the market is unlikely to be calm. Even if you don't trade options, spot volatility cannot avoid this expiry.What Wall Street fears is not who wins, but that period when no one admits defeat.
The countdown is exactly ten weeks. In the general congressional vote, the Democrats lead by about six percentage points. Once this number is out, the first to get nervous is not Washington, but the trading desks on Wall Street.
What everyone is really calculating is not who wins, but whether Congress will become a place that blocks everything after the win. If the Democrats take back Congress, with the White House and legislature divided, major bills will enter a long tug-of-war and nothing will move forward. It sounds like political news, but for those of us who live by liquidity, this is price.
Raymond James analyst Ed Mills said something quite key. Most of the market volatility in the past two years was not caused by legislation, but by executive actions. In other words, a legislative deadlock does not mean calm. The real possibility is the opposite: once the White House is blocked by Congress, it tends to push things through executive orders, especially tariffs. The more indirect the means, the harder the pace is to predict, and uncertainty actually increases.
Then there is the more troublesome issue, the debt ceiling. The market generally expects the U.S. government to hit the approximately $41.1 trillion limit around mid-2027. TD Securities puts it bluntly: if the Democrats control Congress, the debt ceiling becomes a card to force Republicans to concede on other policies. If it comes to a deadlock, U.S. Treasury yields will be pushed up, volatility will increase, and as the so-called default trigger date approaches, short-term Treasuries will be more easily sold off.
The assets we hold, frankly, are on the end driven by risk-free rates and liquidity. When yields rise, risky assets have never had an independent rally.
Finally, there is the most difficult scenario to handle. The election result is not that someone loses, but that no one admits defeat. Counting drags on, lawsuits continue, and the result is delayed. The analysis describes a scene of election chaos replayed, risk aversion rising, and volatility increasing. What Wall Street wants most now is not a win by a particular party, but a clear, predictable result that can be modeled.
Our days here continue as usual, with Bitcoin grinding around 78,000, sentiment indicators hanging high, and debates on-chain about who is adding positions and who is exiting. But these short-term games must be viewed on this longer timeline.
So the question is left to you. Do you think the real impact on the market ten weeks from now will be the election result itself, or that period when no one admits defeat?A rebound kicked off, and market sentiment quickly warmed up. Many people saw BTC surge again and were convinced the bear market was over and the supercycle officially began. But in his latest public sharing, CZ poured cold water on the market: the supercycle has not yet arrived, and the market is still operating in the bear phase of the four-year halving cycle. Many remember his expectations for the supercycle at the beginning of the year. At that time, the market was full of hope, hoping that U.S. policy dividends and ETF funds would break Bitcoin's long-standing four-year cycle and create a new market that broke away from the old cycle. But as things moved on, he revised his judgment: the policy environment is indeed the best phase in his twelve years in the industry, regulatory direction is clear, institutional funds remain present, and the long-term industry fundamentals have not collapsed. However, macroeconomic benefits do not mean the short-term bear market is directly over. This is also the most contradictory aspect of the current market. On one hand, the market occasionally saw large bullish candlesticks, BTC rebounded sharply, altcoins took turns catching up, forced liquidations repeatedly played, the profit-making effect briefly returned, and public opinion loudly called for the bull market to resume; On the other hand, the historical trajectory of the four-year cycle still holds true: the AI sector continues to divert hot money from the market, incremental retail investors have not entered large-scale markets, and the volume of each round of gains gradually diminishes, with rebounds mostly being a recovery phase of existing capital competition. CZ's judgment is worth careful reading: a bear market does not mean a continuous downward trend; within a bear market, there can also be astonishing rebounds. In every major bear market in history, there have been more than one such surge that made people mistakenly believe the bull market was returning. Many traders are precisely like thisHere is what is currently happening behind the $BTC candlestick chart……
The price is oscillating near the weekly VWAP, with most of the selling pressure coming from the perpetual contracts side, while the spot market has yet to confirm this weakness!
The initial downward move was mainly driven by long liquidations/profit-taking. When the price hit the lows, newly opened shorts started aggressively building positions but were quickly absorbed and trapped, which helped fuel a rapid rebound.
So far, sellers are clearly fighting for control, but the pressure they exert is disproportionate to actual downward continuation, with very limited downside space gained.
Conclusion: As long as the spot market remains resilient and the price stabilizes near the weekly VWAP, the selling pressure dominated by perpetual contracts is vulnerable to further short squeezes. For the bearish scenario to strengthen, I would like to see the spot market join the selling, with the price gaining genuine acceptance below the VWAP.
Until then, this looks more like a battle for positioning rather than clear bearish control.
It's currently hard to get a clear read! So for me, the position remains unchanged: do nothing. Short sellers have withdrawn for nine consecutive days, so why are Bitcoin bulls standing still?
On-chain data presents a somewhat counterintuitive picture. Since August 17, Bitcoin's short positions have been continuously decreasing, and as of today, they have been reduced for nearly ten consecutive days. On the other hand, long positions have barely moved since August 23, remaining flat. The market appears lukewarm on the surface, but beneath it, some are quietly stepping back. This divergence itself is worth paying close attention to.
Looking over a longer timeframe, the short sellers' retreat began on August 17, about a week earlier than the bulls' stagnation. In other words, those exiting the market are more eager than those wanting to enter. The continuous closing of short positions means those betting on a decline are gradually admitting their mistake and leaving. This retreat is not just noise for a day or two; it is a directional move lasting ten consecutive days.
Meanwhile, the bulls remain inactive, indicating that although spot demand is supporting the market, leveraged funds are not yet ready to charge. This tug-of-war—one side retreating, the other waiting—is actually more interesting than a straight rally. On-chain participants interpret this as the market waiting for a clear signal rather than blindly chasing a rally. Spot support without leveraged movement often signals a transition from hesitation to confirmation in the market.
According to the framework analysts previously provided, for Bitcoin to truly start a full-fledged rally, three conditions must be met: first, a whale on Hyperliquid turns bullish; second, a whale on Bitfinex completes building their BTC long position; third, the negative premiums on the Korean premium (kimchi premium) and Coinbase premium completely disappear. Looking back now, the second and third conditions have quietly been fulfilled. This framework has been repeatedly reviewed within the community, and the premium turning positive indicates that selling pressure from retail investors in Korea and the U.S. has been cleared.
The large Bitfinex whale, closely watched by the community for a long time, has already finished building their long position, and the negative kimchi and Coinbase premiums have vanished. In other words, the only missing piece now is the Hyperliquid whale turning bullish. Hyperliquid has been the main battlefield for perpetual contracts in recent years, and whale flows there serve as a sentiment thermometer. Once this signal lights up, many believe it will catalyze the next Bitcoin rally. If this whale does not turn bullish, the market will likely continue to grind sideways, with no one fooling anyone. But once it moves, leveraged funds usually follow faster than anyone else.
Interestingly, this structure makes the current market appear restrained. Bulls are not blindly adding positions, shorts are retreating, and the price is moving in a neutral range rather than a straight surge. Compared to the leveraged-driven rallies from a few months ago, this time the framework looks more stable. Volume has not expanded, indicating no new money is rushing in.
So the real question lies with the Hyperliquid whale. Whether they continue to watch or turn bullish at any moment, the market is watching closely. What retail investors can probably do is clearly observe who is moving and who is waiting in this tug-of-war, rather than rushing to take sides. Whether the next big green candle will be ignited by this whale remains to be seen in the coming days. The true direction is never decided by retail noise but by the next move of these whales.$XRP The selling pressure at 1.3725 in this wave seems a bit deliberate, the market volume hasn't kept up, it's purely the main force manipulating the K-line. The signs of large on-chain orders retreating are quite obvious, short-term sentiment looks hot, but funds are actually sneaking away. I won't chase longs at this position; instead, I'll pay attention to the risk of a pullback. Whether it can hold around 1.35 is the key. Don't be misled by the surface gains, this is a common shakeout script. Do you think this wave is a bull trap or a real correction? Share your order positions in the comments below.👇👇👇