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BTC surged to 81,000 but failed three times and fell back to 78,000. This is not a bearish reversal, but a profit-taking liquidation after the short squeeze fuel burned out: This round started from 65,000, driven by short covering + seven consecutive ETF inflows (on 8/24 alone +$337 million), but futures open interest dropped to a 5-month low, indicating it’s not genuine new money pushing the price up, but a "fake bull" forced by short squeeze. Now longs and shorts are stuck in a battle between Just looking at “core PCE still at 3.3%,” it’s easy to read this data as unchanged. Neutral?
Private domestic final sales for Q2 were revised up from 3.9% to 4.2%, and the core PCE annualized was also revised up from 3.4% to 3.6%. Demand is stronger, inflation is revised upward, and the interest rate side can’t be relaxed.
BTC on the 4-hour chart has already been pushed below EMA20 at 78139; I treat this as bearish, with 75979 as the next support. Only a reclaim above 78139 can be considered a stop to the decline; to overturn this judgment, 81266 must be taken back.
$BTC $ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
For information organization and personal opinion only, not investment advice. Since the crypto market rebounded in August, BTC has broken through $81,000 intraday, hitting a new May high. ETH surged to $2,530 before retreating to around $2,450, with the divergence between the two continues to widen. On the surface, this seems like a difference in gains and volatility, but the deeper reason is that regulatory certainty is being repriced by the market: BTC's regulatory path is becoming clearer, its commodity attributes and ETF framework are fully implemented, and compliance barriers for institutional entry have been basically cleared; ETH's regulatory status remains unresolved, with disputes over its securities status repeatedly escalating, and institutional funds remain hesitant to hold large positions. Between clarity and certainty, regulatory premiums are becoming the core driver of market differentiation between the two. BTC's regulatory certainty is a solid support that has been implemented after multiple rounds of competition. On the commodity side, the U.S. CFTC had already defined BTC as a commodity as early as 2015. After a decade of judicial and regulatory practice, this positioning has never wavered, and the market has formed a strong consensus. At the ETF level, in January 2024, the U.S. spot BTC ETF was officially approved for listing. After nearly two years of operation, the product system, custody mechanism, and subscription and redemption processes are fully mature. Leading institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity have deeply participated, making BTC the most well-established crypto asset with compliance channels. At the regulatory framework level, the SEC has recently promoted customized regulatory rules for crypto assets. As the most mature target, BTC has the clearest path to inclusion in the compliance framework, and policy uncertainty continues to decrease. This regulatory certainty directly translates into real capital inflows. Since August, in the U.S$BTC remains in a short-term range-bound oscillation between $78,000 and $80,000. The core PCE year-over-year at 3.3% in July highlights inflation stickiness, with high interest rates maintaining expectations that transmit to liquidity and suppress risk appetite. The key variable is Friday's speech by Walsh; if hawkish signals are released pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, the defense line will shift down to $76,000. The observation criterion for the breakdown of the oscillation structure is $BTC breaking through $80,000 with volume and completing confirmation.
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期The fear index rising often marks the most dangerous yet most promising times in the market. On August 16, the index was reported at 34 to 35, still within the fear zone but having climbed out of the previous extreme fear. The key point is that this "early recovery" phase means very different things for BTC and ETH.
For $BTC, the fear zone is often a period of "institutions buying while retail selling." Although there was a single-day outflow from ETFs on August 14-15, the weekly net inflow remained positive, and long-term holders' selling was limited. Wall Street complains about volatility while increasing ETF positions, indicating that smart money sees fear as a buying opportunity. If the index dips again, contrarian funds are very likely to continue entering.
The situation for $ETH is much more delicate. Its holders include a higher proportion of DeFi protocols and staking pools, so fear is not just a psychological reading but directly translates into reduced on-chain locked assets, staking withdrawals, and declining Gas fees—worsening sentiment itself forms a negative feedback on fundamentals. In other words, BTC's fear is about chip exchange, while ETH's fear is about ecosystem bleeding.
Therefore, tactics should differ: BTC can be accumulated in batches on index dips, betting on smart money support; ETH requires first observing whether on-chain locked assets and staking flows stabilize, confirming the interruption of negative feedback before following up. The same fear index is a buy signal for one and a warning signal for the other.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $BTC 1-hour chart shows an overall downward trend for Bitcoin's price during the day. In the evening, the price broke below the 78000 level, potentially opening further downside space. Currently, the price is in a rebound state, with resistance near the midline at around 78500, where short positions can be considered. The current short-term trend favors bears, so avoid heavy bottom-fishing. Support is seen at 77000; if this support holds, the bullish rebound may continue. If broken, a deep correction phase may ensue. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Late Night Trading Record: Total Assets 528K, Another Day of Big Swings... This Round I'm on the Bearish Side 🎢
It's late, the light from my phone screen shines on my face, and tonight Xiao Ai is once again staring at the K-line, unable to sleep 😮💨.
A quick look at the total asset valuation: 528,581.63 CNY, then today's profit and loss: -¥12,989.41 (-2.42%), that pink 1-day trend line is heading straight down, a visible shrinkage of assets. I was hoping for a rebound during the day, but the market accelerated downward at the close, grinding the bulls into the ground.
Switching to the 4-hour chart of BTCUSDT perpetual contracts, the screen is full of dense red S's and green B's, all marks of my recent back-and-forth trades and repeated stop losses. The price is hovering around 78,098, with KDJ and RSI indicators weakening across the board, and volume shrinking as well. This kind of slow decline with occasional spikes means stubbornly holding long positions is just warming the market; today's 13K tuition fee hurts.
After reflecting on the pain, this consolidation isn't over, and the main force's intention to sell off is clear. My thinking is very clear now: I'm officially siding with the bears this round 🎢! From now on, any technical rebound will be treated as an opportunity to reduce positions or reverse test, strictly setting defensive lines—I won't give up without profiting from the bearish move.
I've already set up plan orders and am waiting to trigger them. Let's see if I can post a "recovery" report tomorrow! Did everyone hold on tonight? Let's huddle together in the comments 👇Currently trending, discussion volume continues to rise. BTC current price 79,083 (24h -2.00%). Conclusion first: In this market, surviving is more important than making a lot of profit. Position sizing and mindset are more important than predictions.
My three judgments:
1. Sentiment: Hype is a double-edged sword: it accelerates the rise but also speeds up the peak. When the noise is loud, it’s often close to a short-term high.
2. Capital: From the capital perspective, net inflows of spot ETFs and exchange balances are key for sustainability—volume must keep up for the trend to hold.
3. Position: Looking at levels, 83,038 above is the next hurdle, and 75,129 below is critical support—breaking support will cause sentiment to fade faster than expected.
Conclusion: In this market, surviving is more important than making a lot of profit. Position sizing and mindset are more important than predictions.
What do you think? Let’s discuss rationally in the comments.
(Original opinion, not investment advice, DYOR)
$BTC Bitcoin these past two days is a bit like an ex who suddenly replied after a three-month cold war. On Tuesday, it surged to 81,000 and hit 81,235, marking the first time in over three months that it has climbed above 80,000. Today, August 26, I took a brief breather. It opened at 78,528, now hovering around 78,585. It's a case of catching a breath after a strong rally, no need to panic. Ethereum hasn't been idle either. It opened at 2442, now at 2469. This week it's up 27%, even stronger than Bitcoin. It's the type that usually doesn't speak but scares you when it makes a move If you ask who started this round of fire, it's actually not the Fed, but the US Treasury. It quietly doubled the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, reaching $4 billion per session. This is equivalent to when the market is facing a water shortage, someone quietly brings in a few barrels of purified water. Once the money is high, risk assets immediately smile. Crypto ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.6 billion this week, the fastest week since October last year. This shows that not only retail investors' enthusiasm but also real funds from institutions are entering the market. In the coming days, two weather forecasts are to watch: Friday, the Fed Chair will speak at Jackson Hole The market is now betting on about a 60% chance of holding steady in September, with rates stuck between 3.5 and 3.75. There's also PCE inflation data tonight. Those planning short-term trades should be cautious. Some analysts are calling for Bitcoin to reach 150,000 by mid-2027 and 300,000 by the end of 2029. These targets are just for reference. Don't treat it as an imperial decree. When the market rises, everyone is a prophet who truly decides your outcome#US Core PCE Holds Steady from Last Month, How Will the Jackson Hole Speech Set the Tone?
When the PCE data came out, my ETH long position was still open.
Tonight, when the PCE data was released, I was watching the market on my phone.
Overall PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. Core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, in line with expectations.
As soon as the data was released, $BTC dropped, falling from 79,000 to below 78,000. $ETH fell even harder—BTC dropped 1.3%, ETH dropped 2.8%. When it rises, ETH surges aggressively; when it falls, it retreats quickly.
The probability of a rate hike jumped from 36% to 42%. The market isn’t afraid of the data itself, but rather Jackson Hole speech the day after tomorrow. If it leans hawkish, this rebound might really be over. If it leans dovish, BTC and ETH might still surge.
By the way, a quick update on my own situation.
I have 5 ETH longs at 1882, currently marked at 2447, with an unrealized profit of 2899U, a return of 3081%. When it peaked at 2530, the unrealized profit was over 3200U but I didn’t exit; now it’s dropped back to 2451, losing over 400U in potential gains, but I’m still holding.
The liquidation price is 1847, which still leaves a safety margin of over 600 points from the current price. This PCE data didn’t hurt me.
If the Jackson Hole speech is hawkish, there might be a further pullback. But if it signals support for financial innovation and digital assets, ETH’s rally might not just stop at 2600.
Setting a flag: I won’t exit unless ETH drops below 2600. $BTC sincerely thanks OKX Orbit!
A month ago, I thought a "trading platform" was just a place to place orders.
Later, a friend told me: "Go post something on OKX Orbit."
I had no expectations.
The first time I posted, someone commented: "Same liquidation, but you’re clearer-headed than me now."
That comment is why I stayed.
After spending a month on OKX Orbit, what it gave me wasn’t a "wealth freedom myth," but three very real things:
First, it made creation visible.
No need for tens of thousands of followers, no need to write research reports. Reviewing a wrong trade, breaking down a coin, or noting a sentiment discipline—someone would respond. When my phone popped up with creator earnings, that feeling of "someone actually pays for serious output" was even better than taking profit on a trade.
Second, it welded "viewing opinions" and "trading" together.
In the Orbit, experts post trading cards; click to open with pre-filled parameters, one click jumps back to OKX to place orders, stop loss and take profit without manual input. Real account binding and transparent historical P&L help avoid most of the traps of random group chats with fake charts and shout trades.
Third, and most importantly—it teaches respect.
In a bull market, everyone seems to win; in a bear market, everyone seems silent.
But the old residents in the Orbit don’t show off "multiplying gains again," but rather "I’m empty-handed today as planned."
I slowly replaced the obsession with "overnight recovery" with "being able to sit in front of the screen tomorrow."
This isn’t sexy, but it helps you live longer.
So this is not an advertorial.
It’s the truth:
Thank you, OKX Orbit, for not treating me as just traffic, but as an ordinary person "who makes mistakes but is willing to review them";
Thank you for that small funding from OKX, and thanks to the comrades who liked and commented on the Orbit;
Thank you for making me realize—content, trading, and community should grow together, not be three isolated islands.
I will continue to write about real trades, pitfalls, and self-doubt at 3 a.m. on the Orbit.
I can’t guarantee every post will go viral, but I guarantee every sentence is true.
If you’re also looking for a crypto community where you can talk, comment, and slowly become professional,
then come to OKX Orbit, or just browse casually—
maybe the first post you see is the one I once experienced.🌎My current $BTC view comes down to two key confirmations:
1️⃣ after the September pMH close, if BTC makes another push toward $80K–$82K and shows a 3-drive structure, I’ll start watching for a short setup.
2️⃣ after the weekly close, if the FVG + BPR confirms together, I’ll look for potential longs around the 0.5% levels.
#BTC80KHoldOrFold Q2 GDP annualized growth of 1.5% is exactly as the market expected—no surprises, no shocks. The economy didn't suddenly stall or rebound beyond expectations. Looking at GDP alone, this data is relatively neutral. For US Treasuries, the dollar, and risk assets, it's unlikely to create a new unilateral catalyst for $BTC $ETH. But tonight's PCE was already above expectations. Sticky inflation is the more sensitive variable for the market. GDP is stable, but inflation is hot. This actually made Warsh's statements at Jackson Hole on Friday even more crucial. GDP didn't crash, so the market breathed a sigh of relief for now But what really determines BTC's next cut direction is how the Fed interprets this inflation—whether to keep holding on or to start softening up. It all depends on how Wash speaks. GDP is fine, inflation is the real issue. Wait for Jackson Hole, don't rush to conclusions. #US core PCE remained flat last month, how will Wash's Jackson Hole tone his speech? #BTC突破80000美元, can it hold a new threshold? #财报观察员: Nvidia leads, AI returns enter a validation phase 🤔Three real-world issues, explaining the current market ❓ all at once. Question 1: ETF has seen seven consecutive days of crazy net inflows—why is the market still grinding? ✅ Truth: Buying ≠ rising on one side. BTC ETF saw 314 million in inflows in a single day, ETH ETF saw 179 million in inflows. BlackRock IBIT privately converted over $5 billion in physical conversion, with major players directly converting BTC into ETF shares instead of dumping shares on exchanges. On the other hand, whales realized $614 million in daily profits, with unrealized profit margins reaching 20.5%, the highest level since June 2025. Large amounts of shares were transferred to exchanges, with veteran players taking advantage of the high price to cash in. 👉 The result: institutions were buying, whales were selling, and two forces were hedging, causing the market to fluctuate at high levels. ❓ Question 2: On-chain indicators have entered the Early Bull bull market. Can you now blindly buy more? ✅ Truth: Mid-term bullish ≠ Close the short term for a blind buy. The CryptoQuant bull-bear indicator benchmarks the January 2023 structure, with the bull score rising from 30 to 80 in one week. This means the big cycle has warmed up, but the biggest short-term risk is the accumulation of unrealized gains. Once a pullback occurs, a large number of profit-taking positions will concentrate and flee, and the shaking effect should not be underestimated. ❓ Question 3: If PCE inflation data exceeds expectations, will it directly crush the market? ✅ Truth: It won't crash outright, but it will shut down consecutive surges. Core PCE at 3.3% met expectations, overall PCE at 3.7% was above expectations. Inflation is relatively strong, and the market is expecting Fed easingWorried about missing the bull market? Why is MSTR underperforming Bitcoin? Short-term and long-term bottom-fishing strategies!
Short-term cycle adjustment: The main cycles of 40 days and 80 days are expected to form a bottom in September. This downward pull, combined with the resistance zone of 78,000-80,000, will cause Bitcoin to start adjusting in the short term.
Medium-term cycle bullish outlook: The 20-week cycle may have already formed a bottom in mid-August, as indicated by the question mark area in the chart below. If the bottom is confirmed, a new upward cycle will begin in the medium term. However, this bottom is not yet confirmed; confirmation requires the price to break below the fld and then cross back above and hold above the fld. If the bottom was not formed in mid-August, then the 20-week cycle bottom is still ahead, likely in September-October, implying another significant correction ahead.
So why do I personally lean towards a medium-term bullish view? Because Ethereum’s 20-week, 40-week, and even 18-month super cycles have all confirmed bottoms in June. When uncertain, looking at the cycle charts of other investment targets can open up new perspectives.
Short-term trading: Generally, the major and medium cycles determine the upward direction, while the short cycle can be used as an entry timing. You can look for short-term long opportunities around the short cycle bottom in September. The next daily-level support is roughly around 75,500; if it reaches this level, it could be a good long entry.
Regarding whether the bull market has started, an important observation window is MSTR. MSTR is like Bitcoin with emotional leverage and is favored by large institutions. If a big bull market starts, institutions will prioritize MSTR, and its gains will definitely outperform Bitcoin. There is a market indicator mNAV = MSTR market cap ÷ company-held Bitcoin market value. Generally, mNAV above 1.5 indicates a thorough improvement in market risk appetite. Unfortunately, recently MSTR’s gains relative to Bitcoin have not been impressive; currently, mNAV is about 1, so it is still too early to talk about a full bull market here.
More caution is needed because at the end of this year or early next year, there is also a 40-week super cycle bottom.
Whether Bitcoin or MSTR, there are currently no signs of a full bull market. The current market is either a bear market rebound or the start of a slow bull.
But whichever scenario plays out, it will provide us with enough opportunities to get in.
Trading insight: For traders, there is no need to be overly obsessed with predicting the trend. If a big drop happens later, it’s an opportunity to keep buying spot in batches with a better risk-reward ratio. Especially if the price falls into a very cheap range, that’s an excellent bottom-fishing price;
If an upward trend is confirmed later, we keep buying on dips with higher certainty.
Trading is like math: if it’s A, then take plan B; if it’s B, then take plan A, and manage risk well.
This does not constitute trading advice. What scent have the whales caught? I was about to sleep, but just saw the on-chain data and got energized.
The co-founder of Bitkub apparently cleared out all his $ZEC holdings, a total of 34,000 coins, worth over 26 million USD! What did he swap them for? $BTC, 238 coins.
A few details are worth noting:
First, this guy didn’t go OTC; he directly dumped into Hyperliquid, forcibly selling 24,000 ZEC within 24 hours. Keep in mind, ZEC’s liquidity was pretty poor to begin with. This kind of sell-off six months ago would have crashed the market, but today it was absorbed. The old-timers have been saying for a long time that liquidity has indeed improved.
Second, this wasn’t a panic sell-off; he still holds 10,000 coins firmly at 780, selling very methodically. It looks more like he thinks this wave is about done and is exiting in batches.
Third, the most intriguing part is the direction: switching from a privacy coin to Bitcoin. Whale money is always smart, so this move is very interesting. Does it mean ZEC’s rally is over, or simply that Bitcoin is about to take off?
Anyway, this operation gives me the feeling that as the market progresses, liquidity is concentrating more at the top. Money is contracting, and positions are shrinking. Nvidia's 4 AM earnings report impact on the crypto circle
Personally, I don't think it will change the major trends of $BTC and $ETH, but it will bring short-term intense volatility; the impact is emotional transmission, not fundamentally driven; ETH's volatility amplitude is significantly greater than BTC's. Historically, there have been many instances where earnings data looked good, but after-hours trading in US stocks opened high and then fell, and the crypto market followed with a "pulse then reversal".
Three scenarios
1. Strongly exceeds expectations (revenue, guidance, gross margin all higher than optimistic whispers)
US stock $NVDA surges with high volume after hours, global risk appetite rises, BTC and ETH spike briefly, AI-themed altcoins see the biggest gains. But this is only short-term emotional momentum; if spot trading volume doesn't keep up, the spike is likely to fall back.
2. Only meets market consensus (most likely)
This is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" situation. Even if earnings data is good, because market expectations were already maxed out, US stocks tend to fall or spike then retreat after hours, and the crypto market faces pressure simultaneously, with BTC testing 75000 support and ETH pulling back accordingly.
3. Below expectations (revenue/guidance lower than expected)
US tech stocks plunge, risk assets are collectively sold off, crypto market pressure intensifies, contract longs are prone to cascading liquidations, and BTC may break below the 75000 level.
Transmission logic
Nvidia's core business has no direct relation to cryptocurrency; the linkage is through market risk appetite: institutions allocate both US tech stocks and BTC-ETF; if US stocks panic, institutions will simultaneously reduce crypto risk assets; ETH and AI-related altcoins are far more sensitive to this sentiment than BTC.
Trading volume and market signals
1. After the earnings release, crypto contract trading volume instantly surges while spot changes little, indicating it's just leveraged funds speculating, making sustained one-sided trends unlikely.
2. If there is a spike accompanied by spot volume increase, the rise has continuity; relying only on contract volume surge likely results in a spike and fall.
Key reminder
Nvidia's earnings report is only a short-term disturbance; the real determinants of the crypto market's major direction remain ETF funds, US Treasury yields, and US crypto regulatory news. Earnings reports are unlikely to reverse the existing mid-term trend. Contract stop-losses tonight are easily triggered back and forth, with high leverage risks.
In summary: Earnings bring volatility but do not determine the major direction; meeting expectations often leads to profit-taking declines; only a significant beat can temporarily boost coin prices.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键 $BTC The Strait of Hormuz is "likely to reopen," lowering oil prices, but why should the crypto market still be cautious?
Oil prices have plummeted, with Brent briefly falling below $85 and WTI dropping under $80 — inflation cooling and rising expectations of rate cuts have reignited risk-on sentiment, giving Bitcoin phased support in response. ETF funds continue to pour in; last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs collectively attracted $2.6 billion, signaling clear institutional "buying at low levels."
But don’t rush to go all in.
This round of oil price decline is driven by "expectations," not "realized events." Although Iran has reached a temporary navigation agreement with Oman, the conditions are extremely strict: a complete ceasefire, lifting of blockades, U.S. compliance, and only commercial vessels are allowed passage—military ships are prohibited. The deputy foreign minister publicly warned that if conditions are not met, the strait could be closed again at any time. When it will open, for how long, and whether it can be sustained are all unknown.
The market has been repeatedly disappointed by "ceasefire expectations," and geopolitical risk premiums have not been cleared. The current tug-of-war around $80,000 shows weakening short-covering momentum; if subsequent spot buying does not follow through, the rebound could fail at any time. Conversely, if the news becomes clearer, BTC could leverage the momentum to break through; but if expectations are dashed, oil prices could rebound and suppress risk appetite again.
Strategically, hold your spot base positions and patiently wait for official statements from Iran and actual navigation progress. With direction unclear, cash is king—do not chase rallies or bet on expectations. Certainty is the only reason to take heavy positions. ETH bullish trend established, this round of market movement is more than just a short-term rebound
⚠️ Market review only, does not constitute investment advice
1. Market signals: Price stabilizes above the medium- and long-term moving averages, an ascending channel forms, previously solid accumulation at the consolidation bottom, rally accompanied by volume increase, shorts continuously forced to cover, strong capital willingness to attack.
2. Core drivers of the rise
✅ Macro: US policy expectations lean towards easing, risk capital flows back into the crypto market
✅ Institutional funds: Spot ETFs continue net inflows, major players keep accumulating
✅ Fundamentals: Ethereum upgrade progressing, staking lock-up continues to increase, circulating supply tightens
✅ Policy expectations: Related crypto legislation expected to be favorable, market sentiment warms up
3. Key price levels
Strong support: Recent consolidation upper boundary, as long as the pullback does not break it, the bullish structure remains intact
Short-term resistance: Previous trapped zone above, breaking through will open new upward space
4. Market outlook
A bottom reversal trend has already formed, pullbacks are buying opportunities, trend trading should prioritize following the momentum, focus on defending the core support level #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #不要被短期震荡洗出去！AI存储大逻辑没变，行情迟早会兑现🚨
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
Many people see the sector fluctuating back and forth and individual stocks repeatedly bottoming out, and their mindset has started to waver, unable to help but doubt whether the AI storage story has already ended. But looking past the short-term market fluctuations, the underlying industry logic remains very solid.
In the past, the storage chip boom cycle was highly tied to consumer electronics, and market performance was entirely dependent on the shipment volumes of phones and PCs, with a very limited demand ceiling.
Now, the entire industry logic has been completely rewritten: global tech companies are frantically ramping up AI server construction, and the memory and flash capacity consumed by a single AI server is several times higher than that of ordinary servers. The expansion of AI computing power directly drives explosive growth in storage demand, opening up a whole new growth space.
Faced with the rich profits of AI high-end storage, major chip manufacturers are adjusting capacity allocation. They prioritize capacity supply to the high-end chips needed for AI servers, squeezing the capacity supply for consumer-grade and ordinary server storage.
On one side is the massive new demand brought by AI, and on the other side, spot supply is being actively compressed. The supply-demand mismatch directly pushes up spot prices for storage chips, and corporate profits are entering a recovery inflection point.
Having experienced the previous long industry loss cycle, major manufacturers have learned their lessons and will no longer blindly expand production on a large scale, avoiding the old script of overcapacity and price collapse.
Additionally, leading overseas cloud providers have already locked in long-term storage chip contracts for the coming years, further tightening spot market supply and providing strong price support for chips.
With product price increases and long-term contracts landing, corporate financial reports will continue to improve, institutional funds will also continue to enter the market following earnings certainty, and the foundation for the sector's long-term upward trend is already in place.
However, risks cannot be ignored. This round of strength in the storage sector is entirely built on the sustained high prosperity of AI computing demand.
If subsequent AI capital expenditures fall short of market expectations, or if leading manufacturers break consensus and start aggressive capacity expansion, oversupply will return, and the entire sector's market will quickly reverse.
Short-term fluctuations and grinding are normal; do not let intraday volatility disrupt your judgment, and always keep track of marginal changes on the demand and capacity sides.The critical moment for $BTC has arrived: Can 78K really hold?
BTC surged to 81,280 then pulled back, currently oscillating around 78,400. Many panic seeing the continuous pullbacks, but from the market perspective, there is no real panic selling yet.
This rally has climbed from 63,000, with a 7-day gain still exceeding 14%. Short-term profit-taking is very normal.
Next, don’t guess, watch the levels:
79,600 is the signal for bulls to regain control. After a volume breakout, the 81,280 high could be challenged again.
Below, 77,850 is the true short-term dividing line.
Holding here means BTC may continue to consolidate and build momentum; if it breaks down with volume, the 76,500 or even 75,500 zones will come into view.
Now is not the best time for emotional chasing or panic selling.
BTC is gathering strength to choose a direction; the real opportunity often comes at the moment of breakout. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 BTC just surged above $81,000, then quickly returned to around $79,000—a move that really felt like "riding a roller coaster without buying tickets." On August 25, BTC briefly touched about $81,200, then quickly fell back to around $79,000, indicating that selling pressure above $80,000 is indeed significant.
However, I believe the $79,000 pullback cannot be simply understood as the end of the rally.
The reason is simple: the previous rally was too fast. BTC had surged over 20% in the previous week, breaking through $70,000, $75,000, and $80,000 in quick succession, with short liquidations, ETF capital flows back, and macro liquidity expectations all accelerating the rally. Last week, US spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $1.92 billion, marking the strongest weekly performance so far this year.
So it's actually not surprising that profit-taking orders are being realized now.
What really needs to be watched is: whether there is support near $79,000.
If BTC fluctuates between $78,000 and $80,000 and then recovers $80,000, then this pullback looks more like normal turnover after a rally. The original resistance level gradually turns into support, which actually helps the market continue to gain momentum.
$BTC
#美国核心PCE持平上月, how should Wash-Jackson Hole set the tone for his speech?
#BTC突破80000美元, can they hold onto new challenges? I'm continuing to short BTC, not even Trump can stop me! I say, I don't believe it will drop below 72,000!
💰 Short position held
· Pair: BTCUSDT
· Direction: Short
· Entry price: 78,100
· Leverage: 20x
· Stop loss: 79,500
· Target: 72,000
📉 Market signals
BTC can't break above 79,500 on the rebound, the highs are getting lower. MSCI plans to exclude asset-accumulating companies like Strategy, big funds are retreating. $120 million mining investment wiped out overnight, negative news keeps coming. Japan's interest rates return to 1996 levels, global liquidity tightening expectations rise. All moving averages start to turn down, short-term bearish trend confirmed.
📌 Trading strategy
· Stop loss: 79,500, accept if broken
· Target: 72,000
Not even Trump's calls work anymore, the big trend has turned. I don't believe it will drop below 72,000.
Target 72,000! Strong short!
$BTC
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #JaneStreet holds 5% of SanDisk, AI storage valuation under renewed scrutiny
The boss has something to say
JaneStreet's 13F has been released. As of July 30, it held about 7.41 million shares of SanDisk, an increase of 6.25 million shares from before, a 540% increase. SanDisk has directly become JaneStreet's second largest single stock holding, second only to SPY.
This signal is worth noting, but don't overinterpret it.
JaneStreet is not a retail investor or a fund; it is a quantitative market maker. Its holding logic is different from Cathie Wood's. JaneStreet's holdings are more from a market-making and hedging perspective and do not necessarily indicate a bullish view. But the fact that it is willing to pile SanDisk up to the second largest holding at least shows that at this price level, it considers the risk-reward ratio acceptable.
The timing is right after a pullback. The July 30 date is very particular; SanDisk just started to pull back after a big rally on Investor Day. JaneStreet increased its position from over 1 million shares to 7.41 million shares during the decline, buying more as the price fell.
However, there are structural issues with the fundamentals. SanDisk rose from 1190 to 1820, a significant increase. The Investor Day presentation was indeed solid, with a 93.9 billion long-term contract and an 80% gross margin target. But the pullback in storage stocks indicates the market is still struggling, and whether AI storage demand can support the high valuation requires longer-term verification.
JaneStreet's position data is lagging; it's been almost a month since July 30, during which SanDisk has gone through another round of ups and downs. Tracking large funds' positions is useful as a reference but should not be taken as trading instructions.
My own pace: I bottomed SanDisk at 1190 and sold at 1368, then shorted at 1380 and got stopped out, so I've experienced both sides. No rush now; I'll wait for a proper pullback. JaneStreet's holdings are a medium- to long-term signal, not a reason to chase short-term highs. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Bitcoin is oscillating around 80000, all longs have been closed waiting for a pullback. The PCE data did not provide a clear direction, so no heavy directional bets before Friday's speech by Powell.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Currently, OKB is hovering around $111, having risen nearly 10% in the past week and almost 30% in the past month, showing very strong performance.
This surge mainly relies on two factors: first, the supply has decreased; second, the exchange itself is expanding, tokenizing US stocks, obtaining licenses in Dubai and Europe, and the platform is growing bigger, so people believe holding OKB will bring benefits. Technically, the price has risen above most moving averages, indicating a medium-term bullish trend, but the RSI is already near 70, so it's a bit overheated in the short term and likely to pull back before moving up again. Support is roughly between 108 and 110, with resistance around 118 to 120.
In simple terms, the logic is straightforward: the exchange business is doing well, and the coin supply is decreasing, so long-term optimistic investors are willing to hold; but don’t expect it to rise every day—if the overall market dips, it will fall along with it. Don’t chase highs in the short term; wait for a pullback to reassess. For the long term, it depends on whether OKX can successfully develop the X Layer and continue to grow its user base.
Investment carries risks; don’t bet your entire fortune on it
$OKB #OKX预言家：豪门联赛与LCK预测开启 BTC and ETH Volatility Forecast Tonight
There is a high probability of significant volatility tonight, making it difficult for a one-sided move; ETH's volatility will be noticeably greater than BTC's; the source of the volatility mainly comes from the after-hours sentiment spillover of Nvidia's earnings report and contract leverage position battles.
Two Main Drivers of Volatility
1. Nvidia $NVDA After-Hours Earnings:
• If the earnings exceed expectations, US stock risk appetite will rise, causing BTC and ETH to spike briefly;
• If earnings only meet expectations or fall short of whispers, US tech stocks will plunge, dragging crypto down simultaneously; historically, on Nvidia earnings nights, BTC and ETH often experience sharp spikes that trigger stop-losses back and forth, but do not necessarily lead to sustained one-sided big rises or falls.
2. Current Contract Market Situation: The current contract open interest (OI) is high, with long and short positions piled up; many stop-loss orders are placed between 75000-79000 (BTC) and 2200-2450 (ETH). News can easily trigger short-term liquidations, amplifying volatility.
Volatility Differences Between the Two
• $BTC: Amplitude is relatively restrained, most likely range-bound with spikes;
• $ETH: Higher beta, with price swings about 30% larger than BTC under the same conditions, and more intense spikes up and down.
How to Interpret Trading Volume Signals
1) If after-hours volume suddenly surges but price fluctuates back and forth repeatedly, this is typical intense volatility without a real direction;
2) Only a volume surge with one-sided rise or fall will form a trend;
3) If volume quickly shrinks after news release, the price will oscillate and return to the original range.
Two Scenarios
✅ Scenario One (High Probability): After earnings release, price first spikes then falls back, or first drops then recovers, wide-range volatility without breaking the major range.
❌ Scenario Two (Low Probability): Earnings severely miss expectations, US stocks plunge, BTC volume surges to test 75000 support, ETH synchronously undergoes deep correction.
Practical Focus: Tonight is not suitable for high leverage positions; the risk of stop-loss hunting spikes is very high. Focus on whether the 75000 BTC support can hold.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 Crypto market mixed with bulls and bears, Bitcoin nears $80,000 resistance
1. Institutional inflows continue, strong ETF capital flow: The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded over $2.26 billion net inflow for seven consecutive days, with a single-day inflow of $314 million on August 25. After lowering the minimum threshold, BlackRock IBIT has processed over $5 billion in physical BTC-to-ETF conversions, with institutional allocation demand still strong.
2. Thailand takes first regulatory step: The Thai SEC released a draft for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, requiring at least 80% direct holding of underlying assets. Public consultation ends on September 20, potentially making it another key Asian market to approve virtual asset ETFs.
3. Macro narrative shifts to "devaluation trade": Alongside US debt expansion and dollar depreciation expectations, Bitcoin and gold ETFs have returned to the top ten in trading volume. Bloomberg analysts point out that the "devaluation trade" is replacing AI frenzy as the main theme, with Bernstein predicting BTC to reach $150,000 by mid-2027.
4. Selling pressure near $80,000 emerges: On-chain data shows long-term holder supply shifted from a monthly average increase of 286,000 BTC to a decrease of 21,000 BTC, with 6-18 month holders sending over 297,000 BTC to exchanges. Technical RSI is overbought (93.3), Coinbase premium turned negative, and the $80K-$83K range has been repeatedly resisted.$BTC At 8:30 PM, a piece of data popped up, lifting the market's head from the repeated tug-of-war over whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates or not.
The US July core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. Exactly in line with market expectations, not a penny more, not a penny less.
Inflation hasn't worsened, nor has it improved; it's stuck there.
This data is not a cure for the market, but a placebo. It temporarily blocks the panic of inflation spiraling out of control and the Fed being forced to hike rates immediately, but it also kills the hope of a rapid inflation decline and imminent rate cuts. Core inflation stuck at 3.3%, far above the 2% target, means the Fed can only remain hawkish and endure.
For high-valuation tech growth stocks, especially AI hardware valued on future cash flows, this is not good news, but it's not new bad news either.
What’s more worth pondering is that this data meeting expectations precisely indicates the market has already priced it in. Previously, US Treasury yields surged, Nvidia adjusted seven times, and capital had already played out the scenario of sustained high interest rates. Now that the data is out, there’s neither surprise nor shock; the market just follows the previous momentum to make a correction. Last night’s US stock rebound and tonight’s stable pre-market sentiment follow this logic.
But correction does not mean reversal. What truly determines the quality of tech stocks has never been a single month’s inflation data, but the choices of industrial capital itself and the real money on the financial statements. SK Hynix dares to buy back shares amid adjustments, ZJX dares to say orders will still grow in 2027, MiniMax dares to disclose ARR exceeding $800 million—these are signals harder than PCE. Macro tides rise and fall, but demand locked in contracts, capacity scheduled for next year, and AI revenue growing triple digits for twelve consecutive quarters won’t vanish just because of one inflation figure.
This is the logic we keep emphasizing. The market’s short-term pricing power lies in sentiment and interest rates, but long-term pricing power always lies in performance and cash flow. Core PCE meeting expectations only gives everyone a breathing room; don’t mistake it for a signal of reversal. $BTC Friday, $6.4 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire! The most "gambling" day on the entire network is coming
81,700 Bitcoin options contracts expire on Deribit, with a notional value of $6.4 billion, accounting for nearly 20% of the exchange's open interest in Bitcoin options.
All year round, it's hard to find a bigger single-day gambling liquidation scene than this.
First, let's look at the bullish and bearish forces: 44,639 call options, 37,061 put options, put/call ratio 0.83 — bulls clearly outnumber bears.
Last week, Bitcoin surged from 62,000 to 81,000, rising $18,000 in one week, the second largest weekly gain in recent years, turning a large number of call options from worthless into in-the-money.
Next, look at the concentration of firepower: $236 million stacked at the $75,000 strike price, $157 million at $80,000, and over $500 million notional value squeezed within 5% of the current price.
What does this mean?
Market makers' hedging positions are all concentrated at these price levels.
Before expiration, the price will either be pinned near a key level, fluctuating back and forth, or once it breaks through, the hedging positions will accelerate the market sharply in one direction — speeding up the rise or the fall.
The most ominous indicator is the maximum pain point: $68,000.
This is the price level that would render the most options worthless. It is $11,000 below the current price — meaning, for the bears to win in the end, Bitcoin would have to crash 14% within two days.
By the way, expiration is on Friday morning, and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium is also happening these days, with Powell scheduled to speak.
Options expiration plus central bank big shots speaking together — you can imagine the volatility.
Options expiration doesn't decide the direction, but it determines who gets liquidated firstPCE did not provide an answer; the real direction of BTC depends on Wash's statement
The latest core PCE year-on-year is 3.3%, unchanged from the previous value, and month-on-month is 0.2%; economic growth remains around 1.5%. The data neither clearly intensifies inflation out of control nor signals a rapid economic cooldown.
This means the market's most uncomfortable situation continues:
The data is neither hawkish enough nor dovish enough.
Now the trading logic has shifted from "whether the data exceeded expectations" to "whether inflation stickiness is sufficient to support a longer period of high interest rates or even further tightening."
Therefore, September policy expectations have begun to diverge again, and BTC is being suppressed in the $78,000-$80,000 range, oscillating repeatedly.
What might truly break the deadlock is Wash's speech on Friday.
What the market wants to hear is not just "focus on inflation" or "rely on data," but a clear policy framework:
What level of inflation requires continued tightening?
What employment and growth data can trigger a shift?
If Wash sets a hawkish standard, U.S. Treasury yields may rise again, and BTC needs to guard against a pullback from high levels;
If the framework is dovish, only above $80,000 will there be a real chance to open up space.
So the most important thing now is not to rush the direction but to wait for policy expectations to be repriced.
$BTC looks for support at 78,000 and a breakthrough at 80,000. The direction hasn't changed; what really changes is the pace. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ The data has just been reconciled, and the market logic is clearer than my morning forecast — this is not a bear market turn, but a "short squeeze fuel burned out + macro bomb countdown" dual cooldown.
BTC surged to 81237 then fell back to 77924, a retracement of over 2000 dollars, with about 620 million liquidated and 91,000 accounts wiped out in the past 24 hours. This morning I said "Don't chase if 80K isn't firmly held, wait for a pullback confirmation" — now it looks like that spike was a fake breakout shakeout.
The real divergence is here:
Short liquidation is nearing the end: futures open interest dropped sharply from 353,500 to 312,600 (-11%) within a week, indicating this rally was a "fake bull" forced by short squeezes, not driven by new leverage.
But spot is taking over: ETFs have seen inflows for 6 consecutive days totaling 2.26 billion USD, with IBIT accounting for 68%. Last week’s single-week inflow of 1.92 billion set a new high since October 2025 — price is sideways but institutions are accumulating, which is much healthier than pure short squeezes.
Key price levels: 78K is the lifeline; if broken, look for 75.5K-77K; 81.2K-82K is the 50-week moving average plus heavy trapped positions resistance.
Tonight is a turning point: At 20:30 Beijing time, July core PCE will be released (expected 3.2%-3.3%, far above the Fed’s 2% target), followed by the first Jackson Hole speech by Powell on Friday 8/28. Inflation exceeding expectations = rising rate hike expectations = pressure on risk assets. BTC surged to 81,000 but failed three times and fell back to 78,000. This is not a bearish reversal, but a profit-taking liquidation after the short squeeze fuel burned out: This round started from 65,000, driven by short covering + seven consecutive ETF inflows (on 8/24 alone +$337 million), but futures open interest dropped to a 5-month low, indicating it’s not genuine new money pushing the price up, but a "fake bull" forced by short squeeze.
Now longs and shorts are stuck in a battle between 78K and 81K: if 78K breaks, look for support at the previous high of 75.5K; 81K–82K is heavy resistance from the 50-week moving average plus trapped positions; tonight’s core PCE and Friday’s Jackson Hole will set the direction, with macro rate hike expectations returning as a hidden bomb.
Conclusion: This is a high-level shakeout, not a top, but definitely not a linear bull run. The morning session advised waiting for a pullback confirmation, which avoided this spike—no death on the right side, but 80,000 must close with volume to count, otherwise all attempts to reach higher are bull traps. 🩸A token moving 3% in a few hours doesn't necessarily mean something fundamental changed
$PYTH is a good example
CMC is highlighting a trading tournament with 5M PYTH in rewards as one of the catalysts behind its recent volatility
That immediately makes me question the quality of the volume
Trading competitions can generate huge activity without necessarily representing long-term user demand.
Traders have an incentive to generate volume, chase rewards and take short-term positionsDon't simply assume that loose liquidity will cause BTC and ETH to surge simultaneously.
Everyone held on, cried😭 It's so tough. How can you play to win?
A loose macro environment is the foundation, but capital allocation choices are also needed. When the market only has a "mild risk appetite," capital prioritizes allocating BTC as the digital asset base; only when risk appetite heats up significantly and speculative funds flood in will ETH start a strong catch-up rally.
Currently, the situation leans more toward the first state, with institutional funds seeking stability. So you often see BTC holding its range while ETH repeatedly oscillates back and forth, wearing people down. To get ETH to generate excess returns, either macro conditions must become unexpectedly looser, or the on-chain ecosystem narrative must explode. Without one of these conditions, it's hard for ETH to sustain a major upward move 8.26 Midnight Gold Market Analysis:
During the midnight session, gold continued the bearish trend from the evening. After the previous rebound was resisted at the 4633‑4640 pressure zone, the bulls lacked strength to push higher, and the price kept weakening with fluctuations. The intraday high reached 4673.74, then steadily fell back, hitting a low of 4583.13. The current quote is 4591.66, with a daily decline of 1.44%. Bearish momentum continues to release, and bears dominate the market.
The upper resistance levels are gradually moving lower. The previous resistance at 4633‑4640 has turned into strong suppression, making rebounds opportunities to face pressure. Overall, the market is dominated by bears. Avoid blindly bottom-fishing or going long; prioritize following the main trend.
Dehua Midnight Analysis:
1. Watch the upper resistance zone at 4600‑4611 during rebounds. If pressure appears there, you can continue to set up short positions with stop-loss above 4615;
2. On the downside, first look for support around 4583. If broken further, target near 4575;
Market opportunities are endless; there is no need to force participation in every move. Stick to your trading system, follow the trend, and prioritize risk control to achieve long-term success.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #$BTC $SNDK $OKB
Complete Interpretation of US PCE Data for July 2026
1. Official Core Data Released
The Fed's most watched inflation indicator — July PCE Price Index:
Overall PCE YoY: 3.7%, unchanged from June, higher than the market's mild decline expectation
Core PCE (excluding food and energy, Fed's policy anchor) YoY: 3.3%, in line with expectations, unchanged from previous value
Overall PCE MoM: +0.2%, higher than expected; Core PCE MoM: +0.2%, in line with expectations
Conclusion: Inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, no cooling down, overall hawkish bias, still a significant gap from the Fed's 2% target.
2. Macro Market Reaction
1. USD index surged briefly, US Treasury yields rose, market pricing: Fed's high interest rates will last longer, rate cut timing further delayed
2. US stock risk assets under pressure, gold pulled back, overall risk appetite in crypto market weakened
3. This data coincides with the eve of the Jackson Hole Fed annual meeting, directly locking in a hawkish tone for the Fed Chair's speech, no easing signals will be released Live trading is on @Playing is just real trading. Jiuzong
After a V-shaped rebound from the 62,000 low above 81,000, Bitcoin encountered resistance and pulled back. Currently, there are many shares trapped at yearly highs above, causing heavy selling pressure. The subsequent trend depends on capital and chip battles.
On the bullish side, spot ETF funds remain hot, with net inflows reaching $2.72 billion in August, a new yearly high, and a weekly net inflow of $1.92 billion. BlackRock's weekly net buying scale hit its highest since October last year; prices have held above all moving averages, and MACD maintains bullish momentum.
Risk points are also prominent: MicroStrategy has paused its holdings this round, holding $6.69 billion in cash and waiting; whales around 80,000 yuan concentrated profit-taking, with selling pressure exceeding previous highs; rising volume expands while pullbacks shrink, with poor volume coordination; RSI spikes and pullbacks indicate short-term overheating, and market expectations for a rise to the 82,500 level have cooled significantly.
Key support and resistance levels are clear: above 81,200 and 82,000 are important resistances; holding firm is necessary to start a new upward cycle; Support below is 78,000, 74,700, and 7,200-73,000, with 69,000 serving as the dividing line between the 200-day moving average and the middle Bollinger band.
The medium-term moving average bullish pattern remains intact; as long as ETF funds continue to flow in, this pullback is highly likely to be a shakeout; However, short-term sentiment is overheated, large players selling off, and perpetual bulls crowded, making a pullback to 74,000 or even 69,000 highly likely📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Bulls controlled the market throughout but leverage kept declining, with a 24-hour total liquidation exceeding $89.64 million, concentration only 35.8%, and short squeeze momentum significantly weakened...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $11.1707 million $10.7548 million $0.416 million
4 hours $24.4273 million $21.5196 million $2.9077 million
12 hours $32.0884 million $27.2385 million $4.8500 million
24 hours $89.6437 million $77.4064 million $12.2373 million
In 1 hour, bulls dominated with 25.8x leverage controlling the market, volume $10.75 million; in 4 hours, leverage dropped sharply to 7.4x, volume surged to $21.52 million; in 12 hours, leverage further declined to 5.6x, volume rose to $27.23 million; in 24 hours, bulls slightly increased to 6.3x leverage, liquidation $77.4 million vs. shorts $12.2 million, totaling $89.64 million. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for only 35.8% of the 24-hour total, indicating moderate to low concentration. Bull leverage collapsed from 25.8x to 6.3x, significantly weakening short squeeze momentum. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction is bullish, the strength has greatly diminished, so avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: The Fed's favored inflation indicator remains flat, Bitcoin consolidates after testing $80,000 in a "devaluation trade," and the US economic "war" on Iran continues.
📊 Core PCE Flat Month-on-Month: Inflation Stickiness Unresolved, Watch for the Jackson Hole Speech
On August 26, the US Commerce Department released July's core PCE price index year-on-year at 3.3%, unchanged from last month, meeting market expectations; month-on-month rose 0.2%, accelerating from June's 0.1%. The PCE price index year-on-year was 3.7%, also unchanged. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted consumer spending in July was flat month-on-month, failing to continue the strong growth momentum from May and June.
Inflation stickiness persists while consumer momentum weakens—this data puts the Fed's September rate decision in a dilemma.
The bigger focus is this week: Fed Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium at 10 PM Beijing time on August 28. Wall Street views this as the critical window for Wash to rebuild Fed credibility. The market expects Wash to possibly reiterate inflation risks and keep rate hike options open to restore trust. Against the backdrop of three dissenting votes at the July FOMC and public internal divisions, Wash's speech will be the key indicator for September's rate hike decision.
₿ BTC Consolidates After Breaking $80,000: The Test Begins After the Short Squeeze
Bitcoin surged to $81,237 on Monday, a three-month high, rising over 20% in the past week. However, it failed to hold above and retreated to around $79,000 for consolidation.
This rally was driven by three forces: the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchase scale weakening the dollar and reigniting the "devaluation trade"; continuous net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs; and large-scale short liquidations.
Analysts point out this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes. Whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 depends on spot buying replacing short covering. A successful break above $83,000 resistance could open the way to $90,000; failure to hold may lead to a deep correction.
🚢 US Expands Sanctions on Iran: From Military Strikes to "Economic War"
On August 24, US Treasury Secretary Bassett announced expanding economic sanctions on Iran to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology. Bassett called this move the "Economic D-Day."
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz situation shows subtle changes. Iran and Oman issued a joint statement proposing a mutually agreed safe maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the strait remains closed, and the temporary agreement does not mean full reopening. Iran has clearly stated that if the US continues the economic war, no oil will be exported through the Strait of Hormuz.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Core PCE holding at 3.3% proves inflation stickiness unresolved; Wash's Jackson Hole speech will be the key indicator for September's rate hike decision; Bitcoin retreated after briefly testing $80,000, and whether the short squeeze-driven rally can turn into sustained buying remains uncertain; the US shifts from military strikes to "economic war" on Iran, with progress in Strait of Hormuz reopening talks but far from finalized. BTC contract bull leverage collapsed from 25.8x to 6.3x, total liquidation $89.64 million, concentration only 35.8%, and short squeeze momentum significantly weakened. As inflation data, central bank speeches, and geopolitical games converge in the same time window—the market awaits Wash's direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 PCE slightly beats expectations, rate cut trading cools down first: tonight's risk assets really need to be watched by "how big the negative news is"
The July PCE data released tonight was generally bullish but did not lose control.
PCE recorded +0.2% month-on-month, exceeding the market expectation of +0.1%, and rose year-on-year to 3.7%, also slightly above expectations; Core PCE rose +0.2% month-on-month and +3.3% year-on-year, basically in line with market expectations
The signal from this set of data is clear:
Inflation remains, but it hasn't spiraled out of control again; Expectations for rate cuts won't disappear, but the market may need to lower the "quick easing" scenario again.
For liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC, US stocks, and gold, short-term pressure mainly comes from nominal PCE exceeding expectations, as this pushes up market pricing for "higher interest rates to last longer."
However, the core PCE did not significantly exceed expectations, which also means this is not a malicious data that could completely reverse the policy path.
So tonight, what is more likely to happen is:
Trade hawkish expectations first, then observe capital support.
If BTC can hold key support despite bearish data, it indicates strong spot buying resilience; If risk assets weaken with increased volume, it is necessary to be alert to profit-taking that was concentrated during previous gains
The real issue isn't that PCE rose by 0.1 percentage points, but whether the market will reprice the Fed's next move because of it. $BTC #美国核心PCE持平上月, how did Wash-Jackson Hole set the tone in his speech? An interesting phenomenon is now appearing in the crypto market: a divergence between spot funds and futures funds expectations.
Spot ETF funds continue to flow into BTC, with long-term capital still buying on dips; however, the futures market's long positions have reached a high level, with a large amount of short-term leverage competing to push prices higher.
In this divergent scenario, $BTC has spot funds as a safety cushion, so even if there is a pullback, the downside is limited; $ETH lacks sustained spot buying support, so once futures longs are liquidated en masse, the decline will be very sharp.
Long-term capital entering the market does not mean the price will only rise without falling; when short-term leverage is crowded, a shakeout can happen at any time Damn, a huge whale dumped 300,000 $HYPE today, cashing out $24.4 million, netting over $5.3 million in profit! That move was really ruthless.
This guy was accumulating steadily from May to July at an average price of $63. Back then, HYPE was fluctuating above $60, and many people got shaken out, but he instead bought more against the trend. Then he cleared out at $80.8, making over $5.3 million in profit in three months. The key is that the average clearing price of $80.8 is very close to the current price, indicating that this level really has substantial selling pressure, not just simple technical resistance.
Also, recently HYPE whales have been very active — in mid-August, a whale sold 1.95 million tokens in two transactions, cashing out $110 million; another whale sold nearly 2 million tokens within two weeks and still holds over 960,000 tokens; some whales even placed sell orders between $92 and $95. This collective sell-off, to put it nicely, is profit-taking; to put it bluntly, the big players are running.The data is out
July PCE year-over-year 3.7%, month-over-month 0.2%; Core PCE year-over-year 3.3%, month-over-month 0.2%.
Overall inflation is somewhat hot, but the core PCE, which truly determines the Fed's stance, basically meets market expectations, with no re-acceleration above 0.3%.
There is pressure, but it cannot be called "out-of-control inflation."
Let's look at consumption again
July nominal consumer spending grew 0.2%, and after adjusting for prices, real PCE barely grew.
In other words, prices are still rising, but consumers are starting to slow down.
Meanwhile, the US Q2 GDP second estimate remains only 1.5%, basically consistent with the initial estimate.
Putting these data sets together, we find: inflation remains sticky, but the economy has not strengthened accordingly.
This will continue to trouble the Fed and Waller.
Inflation is not low enough, so interest rates are hard to come down quickly; growth is not strong enough, so the cost of maintaining high rates becomes increasingly apparent.
Therefore, tonight's PCE is slightly bearish for US stocks, but the impact is limited.
The second key factor deciding tonight's direction has now been handed over to the early morning $NVDA Tonight's PCE report does the best job of letting both bulls and bears each take half the data to celebrate.
Core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, month-over-month 0.2%, exactly as expected.
Bulls see that inflation hasn't continued to accelerate, while bears focus on the fact that 3.3% is still far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target; the Q2 GDP revision is only 1.5%, indicating the economy isn't strong enough to allow for easy rate hikes, nor weak enough to require an immediate pivot.
So after the data release, the market didn't get a one-way ticket; instead, expectations for a September rate hike slightly increased.
$BTC is still tugging at the $80,000 threshold, $ETH shows more volatility but also has more crowded leverage.
As long as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields push higher, the first to be cleared out are usually the high-leverage positions.
$SNDK is no exception to this logic.
SanDisk trades on AI storage demand and long-term orders, but how high the valuation can go ultimately depends on funding costs. The longer interest rates stay elevated, the harsher the market discounts future profits;
If Powell leans dovish, tech and crypto will have a chance to catch their breath together.
The real drama has now shifted from the PCE to Friday's Jackson Hole. The market isn't waiting for a generic "data watch" comment, but to see how Powell prioritizes inflation, employment, and growth.
Tonight's data didn't decide the bulls or bears; the speech will likely be the hammer. I'd rather guess less than automatically translate "in line with expectations" into good news again.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $ETH wallet position has been in floating loss for the third day: I'm waiting for an answer!
At 21:12 today, checking the market, $ETH dropped again to $2,443, floating loss has lasted for three days.
Yesterday when the PCE data came out, I saw someone in the group say "Core PCE 3.3% as expected, bad news fully priced in." So what happened?
The overall year-on-year was 3.7%, exceeding expectations, the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 36% to 42%, BTC directly broke below $78K, ETH slid along.
The so-called "bad news fully priced in" is just self-deception.
My position is not large, 5x leverage, stop loss at $2,360. The problem is: ETH leveraged longs hit a new yearly high, RSI over 90, I know I should reduce my position, but I just can't give up. It rose 27.4% in 7 days, I keep thinking I can wait for the $2,550 resistance to break.
An old trader in the group said he added position at $2,500 yesterday, now floating loss is 8%, already cursing. I'm a bit better than him, at least I didn't chase the top.
Decision: no adding or reducing before Friday's Jackson Hole. If Warsh's speech is dovish, I will add position if $2,485 breaks; if hawkish, stop loss at $2,360 and exit. Not going against macro is a lesson learned from years of tuition.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
I am Mid-term Intelligence Bro. For this Nvidia earnings report, the market has already priced in the 92 billion revenue and data center doubling, so whether it beats or not is not the main point. The key points are next quarter's guidance, Rubin taking over the baton, and whether the gross margin can withstand the HBM price increase.
Simply put, AI trading has shifted from "scrambling for GPUs" to "calculating returns." Big companies are throwing over 700 billion USD in capex annually, and old issues like cyclical financing and customer concentration are now under a magnifying glass.
From a mid-term perspective, hardware chain performance is still there but not cheap; valuation sensitivity lies in the 2027 slope. Money will next choose players—applications that can successfully convert tokens into revenue, domestic computing power segments with pricing power, are more comfortable bets than pure server speculation.
My stance: keep some base computing power, shift the main line towards applications and real cash flow. If the earnings report only beats without strong guidance, don't chase, wait for a pullback.
$NVDA
$SNDK $BTC BTC falls back to 77700: Why did the CPI boost fail? The CPI year-on-year at 3.4% met expectations, but BTC surged to 81200 before falling back to 77700 and fluctuating. The old relationship has broken — in the past three CPI releases, BTC volatility did not exceed 1%, and ETF buying is driven more by momentum than data. Brief commentary: 83K is resistance; only a breakthrough can lead to a bull run; if 77K doesn't hold, look to 75K. ETFs have had net inflows exceeding 3 billion for 7 conse🔥 $BICO /USDT — SHORT SETUP 🚨
Price just ripped +38.51% to 0.02726, testing 0.02762 resistance.
🎯 EP: 0.02740–0.02760
💰 TP1: 0.02620
💰 TP2: 0.02550
💰 TP3: 0.02450
🛑 SL: 0.02830
⚠️ Counter-trend scalp — manage risk!
If 0.02762 breaks and holds, cancel the short.
Let’s catch the pullback. 🐻🔥
#PCEToJacksonHole #BTC80KHoldOrFold #AIEarningsWatch After more than a month pulling back from over 60,000 to 80,000, why do I still feel this bear market isn't over, or that this isn't really a bull market?
Yesterday during a live broadcast at Binance Square, a friend asked me this question.
My judgment hasn't changed: I think there's a high probability of another deeper pullback ahead, possibly even seeing 60,000 again; but this time it might not drop back to 50,000, and instead could form a true Higher Low in this cycle.
Recently, BTC has indeed been very strong in this round.
In the previous 30 years, US Treasury yields dropped from above 5.3%, the dollar also eased a bit, plus ETFs started flowing back in, and with short positions piled up heavily before, this rally directly blew out many shorts.
The market's suppressed sentiment finally found an outlet, pulling from around 60K all the way to 80K, which I think makes perfect sense.
But here is a problem: this rally has now reached what I consider the toughest segment to break through.
I now regard 82K–85K as a very important resistance zone in this cycle. $SNOW
-Truist raises Snowflake target to $375 from $300
Buy
-Cowen raises target to $370 from $300
Buy
-Deutsche Bank raises target to $350 from $230
Buy
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$SNDX
-UBS lowers Syndax Pharmaceuticals target to $33 from $37
BuyReceived 100U, I don't understand any technical stuff, just keep refreshing the exchange's announcement board.
Because I heard that every time a new coin is announced, that coin will likely pump first and then dump.
The first time, Binance announced the listing of $ARKM, I rushed in at the opening, but ended up buying at the peak.
It dropped more than ten points that day, I held on for three days but couldn't take it, cut losses and ended up with only 80U.
After losing, I got smarter, no longer chasing at the opening, but waiting an hour after the announcement to enter.
Because by then, the first wave of buyers chasing the high got stuck, and the price usually falls back a bit.
The second time, a major exchange announced the listing of $PEPE, I held back and waited until it pulled back eight points before placing an order.
This time I was lucky, after buying, it suddenly pumped two hours later, I made 15 points and ran.
The account went back to over 90, but still not breakeven.
Later I found that the day after the new listing announcement, there is often another wave of momentum.
So the third time, I specifically waited for the low point the day after the announcement, bought in and held for one or two days.
That time after the $WIF listing announcement, it rose 20 points the first day then dropped back, I bought in the next morning.
Held less than a day, the price pumped again, I sold at the high and made 25U.
The account reached 120, finally started making money.
Since then, I fixed this pattern, only trading announcement coins, but only mid-market-cap new coins.
Because large caps don't pump much, and small caps are prone to zero out.
Every time an announcement comes out, I add the coin to my watchlist first, wait for it to drop at least 10 points from the high before acting.
After buying, set a 10-point take profit and 5-point stop loss, then just ignore it.
In the following month, I made five announcement coin trades, succeeded in three, failed in two.
The two failures were stopped out, each losing 5 points, but the three successes averaged over ten points profit.
The account slowly climbed to over 200, slow but steady.
Once, after a coin announcement, it pumped for two days straight, I didn't wait for a pullback.
But I resisted chasing because I knew chasing usually gets stuck.
Sure enough, on the third day it dumped 20 points, I bought at the low and profited from the rebound.
That was my biggest gain, 30 points in a single trade, account surged to 400.
In the next two months, I kept using this simple method repeatedly, when announcements were frequent, I could do two trades a week.
When announcements were few, I stayed out of the market, holding U calmly.
I also encountered fake announcements, a small exchange announced a listing but no one cared.
I lost 6 points stopped out that time, but overall this strategy has a decent win rate.
By the fifth month, with account plus withdrawn profits, I finally saved up 10,000U.
Actually, I never studied candlesticks or looked at MACD.
I just treated announcements as alarms, pullbacks as opportunities, and take profit/stop loss as iron rules.
The deepest insight is that the emotional swings after new coin announcements are certain, more reliable than blindly guessing price moves.
Also, don't be greedy for the first wave,
the second wave pullback is what small funds can catch.
If I had to sum it up in one sentence, watching the exchange's announcement board is more useful than watching the charts.