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🇺🇸 Macro Catalyst: Oct 02 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Preview
Today’s 8:30 AM EDT NFP report is the primary volatility trigger for crypto liquidity. Consensus targets 90K–95K job additions vs 162K prior, unemployment holding at 4.1%, and wage growth at 0.3%.
🟢 Soft/In-Line <95K: Cools Fed rate expectations, lowers yields, and supplies the momentum for BTC to break $87,360 toward $90k.
🔴 Hot Print >150K: Drives yields higher, strengthening DXY and risking a leverage flush toward $80,800 support. $ETH｜Bullish bias, pullback not yet in place
4h RSI 56.6, slightly high; 1h RSI 60.9, also slightly high, MACD trending upward.
Observation: Waiting for pullback to 2693–2701 (1h pullback zone), current price still above the zone.
Timing: Slightly high above the zone, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 4h candles); ends once the top is reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Upside target 2749; break below 2675 is considered invalid.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to retake EMA55 before considering.
In short: Bullish bias, wait for pullback, not recommended to chase.
$SUI｜Bullish bias, pullback not yet in place
4h RSI 54.3, slightly high; 1h RSI 55.5, also slightly high, MACD trending downward.
Observation: Waiting for pullback to 1.16–1.17 (1h pullback zone), current price still above the zone.
Timing: Slightly high above the zone, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 4h candles); ends once the top is reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Upside target 1.21; break below 1.11 is considered invalid.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to retake EMA55 before considering.
In short: Bullish bias, wait for pullback, not recommended to chase.
For analysis only, not advice or trading instructions.$SOL｜Slightly bullish, but the position is relatively high, not recommended to chase
4h RSI 59.3, relatively high; 1h RSI 69.5, also high, MACD is moving upward.
Observation: Wait for a pullback to 118.15–118.67 (1h pullback zone), current price is still above the zone.
Timing: Position is relatively high above the zone, wait for the pullback to be in place before comparing.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends once the target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target 122.79; breaking below 117.5 is considered invalid.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to stand back above EMA55 before considering.
In short: Direction is slightly bullish, but only wait for pullbacks, not recommended to chase.
For analysis only, not advice or order instruction.Nonfarm payroll eve alarm sounds, the market collectively lies flat awaiting judgment
The nonfarm drama has not yet started, the market has already entered a lying-flat state, with capital in full wait-and-see mode, and negative factors quietly beginning to ferment.
$BTC currently at 83962, slightly down 0.20%. The drop looks small, but the market pressure is overwhelming. US Treasury yields have touched 5.3% and continue to rise, completely consuming the previous bullish momentum brought by the PCE. Spot ETF inflows have ended after 9 consecutive days, with a net outflow of 148.7 million USD this round. The 85000 level is piled with sell orders, making upward breakthroughs heavily resisted, while the support at 77200 seems distant and unattainable.
$ETH quoted at 2679, slightly down 0.15%. ADX is only 12, indicating the market has completely lost trend momentum. There is a large amount of capital defending at 2683, accounting for 54%. Once 2650 is broken, the correction space will open; to regain strength, it must firmly break through 2738.
$ZEC at 1375, sharply down 4.72%. Long positions liquidated amount to 1.81 million, not from active long exits but forced liquidations by the market, severely damaging long power.
$SOL at 117, down 1.76%, sell orders are twice the buy orders, with short crowding exceeding 65%. 116 is a key defense line; once broken, it will trigger chain liquidations; 121.84 above is the first short-term resistance.
Overall crypto total market cap has been stuck at 2.86 trillion for 8 full days, consolidating and accumulating long and short forces. Tonight’s nonfarm is like a blind box opening, the whole market quietly awaits this judgment.
Market volatility is huge, avoid impulsive positions.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $SOL$BTC｜Bias is bullish, but the position is relatively high, not recommended to chase
4h RSI 65.3, already at the upper edge; 1h RSI 70.8, also relatively high, MACD is rising.
Observation: Wait for a pullback to 84312–84524 (1h pullback zone), current price is still above the zone.
Timing: Position is relatively high above the zone, wait for the pullback to be in place before comparing.
Window: About 4 to 12 hours (1 to 3 bars of 4h); ends once the upper target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target 86787; breaking below 83522 is considered invalidation.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to stand back above EMA55 before considering.
In short: Direction is biased bullish, but only wait for pullbacks, not recommended to chase. On the eve before the non-farm payroll release, the market collectively enters a freeze mode
The main event hasn't started yet, and the entire crypto circle is directly in a wait-and-see state, with all funds choosing to watch; no one is willing to make a move early to speculate.
$BTC is currently at 84194, slightly up 1.36%. After hitting a high of 85632, it quickly pulled back. The 85000 level is repeatedly tested but can't hold steadily, like knocking on a door that just won't open. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and large funds are all holding back; the market is all about existing positions battling back and forth.
$ETH is quoted at 2717, appearing resilient. It briefly touched 2738 but was pushed down. A large amount of trapped chips accumulate in the 2750-2800 range, with heavy selling pressure to absorb every upward step. Overall volume continues to shrink, and many traders have short positions at 2671, holding losing positions and waiting for the non-farm data to crash the market.
The previous non-farm value was 162,000; tonight's data is the short-term market switch.
If employment data significantly exceeds expectations and rate hike expectations rise again, BTC could target 82000, and ETH could dip to 2600;
Even if the data disappoints but causes a spike, 85000 remains a strong resistance overhead, unlikely to break out into a strong bullish candle.
Tonight's practical approach is straightforward: firmly do not add positions before the data release, and do not subjectively bet on long or short. Wait for the data to come out and the market to show the real direction, then follow the trend.
On non-farm night, betting right leads to instant glory, betting wrong leads to immediate exit; leverage positions must be tightened, do not stubbornly hold on.
$BTC $ETH $ZECI divide existing altcoins into four categories:
1. Yesterday's News
Appeared earlier, topics are outdated, and expansion potential is limited, mostly mining coins. Expected not to surpass the 2021 peak by 2028. Coins in this category include: ATOM, FIL, BSV, ICP, DOT, etc.
2. Conventional
Appeared before 2021, with a certain market share, projects are still actively operating and developing. Prices of these coins are expected to move in sync with the overall market, with total market cap increasing 1-2 times. Coins in this category include: LINK, CRV, DOGE, XRP, XLM, HBAR, etc.
3. Advanced Productivity
Appeared in 2021 and later, representing (widely recognized) advanced productivity and future development directions. These coins have a higher ceiling than conventional coins and are very likely to grow strong in a bull market. Coins in this category include: SOL, SEI, SUI, LIT, PUMP, ONDO, PENDLE, ENA, HYPE, NEAR, UNI, AAVE, etc.
4. Dark Horse Princes
Appeared between 2024-2026, not part of mainstream narratives but gradually entering mainstream view, with significant future development potential but also a risk of failure, depending on whether they can become mainstream narratives and maintain hotspot status.
Coins in this category include: PONS, AERO, VVV, TAO, ZAMA, ETHFI, Niulai, RE, BIO, etc.
As a prudent leveraged long, my main positions are in categories 2 and 3, while trying to balance $BTC $BTC is done, bad luck, how did Bitcoin surge today, and so fiercely
It’s been unstoppable all the way, 85000 was broken instantly
Should we cut losses and run, brothers, bad luck for us
I have a short at 84300, can it still return to the other side?
Today is Friday, is it really breaking out of the trend? Bitcoin has already reached 85500, barely holding on
Feeling like reversing position, it’s too painful
$ETH Ethereum’s rebound today is still weak, only around 2720, consistent with consolidation
Ethereum is weaker compared to Bitcoin now, still no clear direction
Now it depends on Bitcoin, if Bitcoin falls, Ethereum definitely won’t hold
The weaker the rebound now, the more it might drop later Aave supports tokenized US stock collateral to borrow USDC, and the acceleration of real asset on-chain is a positive sentiment for leading DeFi governance assets like UNI. I judge the short term to be bullish but still within a consolidation range. The one-hour and four-hour trends are both upward; 9.044 has risen 5.91% from the 24-hour low of 8.719. The funding rate of 0.01% shows mild payment from the bulls, and the open interest of 5.778 million coins does not indicate crowding; the top 10 order book levels show 17,000 bids versus 7,913 asks, a ratio of 2.15, with noticeably stronger buy-side support. The resistance above at 9.244 is short-term and requires volume to break through. In terms of operation, lightly buy on a pullback to 8.93, stop loss at 8.79, target 9.23; if volume supports a stable break above 9.26, then add positions targeting 9.41, with a position size not exceeding 20%, exit immediately if broken below.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$UNI#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $UNI It is said that mastering 30% of this series is enough to beat 99% of people in the market. $ETH
Al Brooks' price action system boils down to one core idea: abandon lagging indicators and return to naked candlestick trading. In his system, every candlestick is a "vote" cast by institutions with real money. He emphasizes "analyzing each candlestick individually," focusing on the closing price position—closing within the top 20% of the range indicates very strong buying pressure. His most hardcore risk control logic is: risking 3 points to gain 1 point requires a 90% win rate to survive; otherwise, it’s a slow death.
Looking at the ETH chart, the current price hovers around 2700 with repeated friction, and bullish momentum is nearly stalled. Although the price still firmly stands above SMA7 (2691), SMA20 (2620), and SMA200 (2113), maintaining a sound macro structure; the MACD histogram has converged to zero, and RSI has fallen to 64.55, showing clear hesitation among buyers.
The most dangerous aspect is the chip structure: retail bulls account for as high as 71.3%, while smart money bulls hold only 57.1% and are hedging. This "retail crowding and institutional defense" pattern has historically been a precursor to intense shakeouts. Around 2565 USD below, there is a buildup of $1.238 billion in long liquidation pressure, which could trigger a stampede if broken.
In Brooks’ words, this is called "range compression," where the price is squeezed into a narrow space. Until the direction is clear, the best strategy is to wait and watch for that decisive trend candle to appear.Today I must give myself a lesson in risk control! I made money, but almost got knocked back to square one by a single trade.
Although the overall account is still profitable, the polarization of the three positions BTC, SOL, and ZEC gave me a harsh lesson.
$BTC｜The Stabilizer
Opened at 84044, current price 84610, full position 20x leverage, unrealized profit 335.64U, ROI +13.37%. BTC is steadily climbing and is currently the most important profit support for the account.
$SOL｜Tactical Warrior
Opened at 117.41, current price 118.70, isolated margin 20x leverage, unrealized profit 47.03U, ROI +21.74%. This trade made me realize again how important isolated margin risk is.
$ZEC｜The Most Painful Lesson
Opened at 1403.02, current price 1329.54, full position 20x leverage, unrealized loss 54.37U, ROI -110.53%.
One trade directly swallowed the hard-earned profits from other positions. The thing to reflect on most is not the directional judgment, but the risk loss of control under high leverage.
Today I truly learned three things:
Correct direction does not mean the position is safe.
20x leverage leaves extremely limited room for error.
Profitable and losing positions must have proper risk isolation.
The biggest fear in trading is not loss, but forgetting risk after making a few profits.
BTC can make money, SOL can make money, but as long as uncontrolled positions like ZEC remain, the account cannot be truly safe.
Next, control risk first, then consider profit! Whale Activity Analysis: The Market Hasn't Turned Bearish, But the Cost-Effectiveness of Chasing High Positions Has Dropped Significantly
While the market continues to rise, the Majhi Big Brother account has been frequently adjusting short-term positions. BTC and ETH prices have been climbing steadily, but the account has been continuously reducing long positions. ETH moved from 2720 to the 2725 range, with tens of thousands of dollars worth of position reductions repeatedly occurring. BTC above 85000 is also consistently realizing floating profits.
This is not a direct shift to bearish sentiment; rather, whales are choosing to take partial profits at resistance levels, signaling caution at high positions. The next two key ranges will directly determine the short-term trend: BTC 85500-86000, ETH 2730-2750.
If there is a volume breakout in this range, off-exchange funds will re-enter to support the market, absorbing selling pressure above, and the rebound could continue.
Conversely, if the price spikes but fails to reach key resistance levels and whales continue to reduce holdings, be highly alert for a quick pullback, as a rapid retracement could happen at any time.
The overall trend hasn't turned directly bearish, but with the current heat at this level, blindly chasing longs is no longer cost-effective. With many uncertainties on the eve of the non-farm payrolls, large players are starting to reduce leverage, and retail investors should avoid impulsive rushes. It's best to patiently wait for a confirmed breakout or a pullback to support before making decisions.
$BTC $ETH Non-farm payrolls haven't been released yet,
first a rise,
then a drop tonight
BTC 84194, slightly up 1.36%.
Rushed to 85632,
seems like trying to knock on the ex's heart,
US bonds high, funds watching.
ETH 2717, stubbornly resisting the drop.
Touched 2738,
2750-2800 is all trapped losers.
Volume? None.
Someone holds a short at 2671, floating loss as faith,
waiting for non-farm to crash the market.
Previous value 162,000.
Beat expectations? BTC 82000, ETH 2600.
Below expectations? Might spike,
but 85000 still caps the top.
Strategy:
No adding positions before data,
follow the trend after data,
don't bet on direction, wait for confirmation.
Non-farm night,
either become a legend,
or close positions.
Just venting, don't get carried away.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5.29% has already tightened market sentiment.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.29%, hitting a new high since 2007. For highly volatile assets like BTC and ETH, continued rises in long-term interest rates mean that risk-free yields and the attractiveness of dollar assets are increasing, making valuation space more likely to be compressed. For traders, this is not just news about a single coin but reflects overall risk appetite being under pressure.
There are two points to watch next: first, whether BTC can hold its key support; second, whether the U.S. stock market and crypto market will simultaneously see increased volume and decline. If yields continue to surge, rebound levels usually face selling pressure more quickly. Source: BlockBeats
Are you more focused on BTC holding support, or on watching U.S. stock market sentiment first? The first NEAR spot ETF has been listed in the United States, leading to a revaluation of capital towards the public chain narrative. BSB, as an ecosystem-related target, has seen a short-term boost in sentiment. However, I judge this to be more of a pulse-like positive effect, unlikely to change the current correction structure.
Down 2.1% in 24 hours, priced at 0.09997, it slightly stabilized after hitting a low of 0.09909. The trading volume was only 642,000, indicating thin liquidity. Although the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, they are respectively 4.25% and 12.27% below their highs, showing diminishing rebound strength. The order book's top 10 buy-sell ratio is 2.89, with buy orders at 2,579 clearly outweighing sell orders at 892. The funding rate is 0.005%, relatively neutral, and open interest is 11.647 million coin-based contracts, indicating longs are not overly crowded.
Strategically, lightly buy on a pullback to 0.09785 with a stop loss at 0.09563 and a target of 0.10389; if volume breaks through 0.10419, add to the position and move the stop loss up to 0.10153. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total capital; tighten stop losses under thin liquidity.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. —
$BSB #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling capital heat
#首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市 $BSB The first NEAR spot ETF has been listed in the United States, and attention to the public chain narrative has rebounded. CL, as a liquidity target within the ecosystem, benefits indirectly. However, the ETF bullishness has not yet been reflected in CL's market performance, and I remain cautious about its short-term trend.
The current quote is 92.55, up 3.7% in 24 hours, after surging to 93.66 and then retreating. The turnover is 18.875 million, with weak buy-side support. The order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.83, favoring sellers; the funding rate is -0.0032%, meaning shorts pay fees. Open interest is 416,000; shorts are crowded but the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are still downward, 8.12% below the 4-hour high, indicating insufficient rebound momentum.
Strategy-wise, lightly short near 93.15 with a stop loss at 94.68 and a target of 89.42; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 88.73, consider reversing to a short-term long with a stop loss at 87.35 and a target of 91.86. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total capital; exit decisively if stop loss is hit.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$CL #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling down capital enthusiasm
#首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市 $CL The smoother the protocol upgrade, the easier it is to forget that coordination itself is a risk.
$ETH upgrades require researchers, client teams, validators, applications, and infrastructure to complete compatibility within the same time window. Passing code tests is only the first step; the real launch must face different configurations, operational rhythms, and edge cases. Long-term smooth upgrades do not mean coordination costs have disappeared.
If a few clients or service providers control the vast majority of user entry points, upgrades will be faster but may create new dependencies; if participants are too dispersed and lack clear processes, the risk of forks increases. Mature upgrade capability comes from public testing, multiple implementations, and sufficiently conservative rollback plans.
The observation period after the upgrade is equally important. Some issues will not be exposed immediately at the activation block but will appear after load increases, node restarts, or rare transactions occur. Retaining monitoring, communication, and rapid patching capabilities is what completes the entire upgrade cycle.
The true end of an upgrade is not when the activation block appears but when major participants run stably and the anomaly window passes safely.
A successful upgrade proves team cooperation; repeated successful upgrades prove the network has institutionalized cooperation.The treasury company built around $XRP is about to ring the bell. The merger plan has been approved by the shareholders' meeting, with the deal expected to close on October 7, and the ticker XRPN set to debut on Nasdaq on October 8. Supporting fundraising exceeds 1 billion USD, and after closing, the company is expected to hold about 473 million $XRP on its books, aiming to become the world's largest publicly traded pure $XRP treasury company. The play is not new: tying the stock price to a single asset curve, amplifying both ups and downs. The company’s risk warning is very straightforward — performance follows the coin price. Current price is around 1.5 USD, the story is just beginning. $XRPMarket Overview: The Three Brothers Slowly Climb, a Rebound Does Not Equal a Trend Reversal
The market quietly lifted in the early session, with the three major coins collectively posting slight gains. Technically, the outlook looks positive, but the heavy resistance zone above is right in front of us. Until a breakout is confirmed, this can only be classified as a corrective rebound.
$BTC is currently at 84550, up 0.49%. The 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross, the SAR indicator at 83206 provides support below, and the price firmly stands above the moving averages. Short-term bullish momentum has somewhat warmed up. However, the 24-hour highs at 85236 and previous high at 85639 act as two solid ceilings, and without volume to support a breakout, it is easy to be pressured down again. The rebound pattern has not broken the box range constraint.
$ETH is quoted at 2699, up 0.69%, fully following Bitcoin's rhythm. The MACD has just started showing red bars, with the upper SAR at 2717 forming reverse resistance. Even the 2720 level is difficult to effectively touch. Without independent upward momentum, Ethereum is unlikely to develop a standalone rally if Bitcoin remains flat.
$SOL is at 118.74, up 1.21%, the strongest among the three. However, the MACD still runs below the zero line, and the SAR resistance at 121.5 is clear. The psychological 120 level is the first hurdle. Although the sector is relatively resilient internally, it cannot be considered a strong reversal.
The current market is most likely to confuse people; small continuous lifts can easily mislead one into thinking a major bull market has returned.
Spot traders should avoid chasing highs impulsively and wait for pullbacks to position: BTC looks at the 83000‑83500 range, ETH focuses on 2650 support, and SOL should be considered for accumulation after a pullback to 115.
Contract traders must control their hands even more. In a range-bound upward trend, frequent fakeouts and spikes occur, with risks of being shaken out on both long and short sides. Do not rush into heavy positions; keep control in your own hands.
$BTC $ETH $SOL#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
The nonfarm payrolls data will be released tonight, with interest rate hike expectations becoming the focus. The impact of nonfarm data on BTC mainly transmits through interest rate expectations. Currently, the market expects an increase of 84,000 to 85,000 jobs in September, a significant slowdown compared to the previous 162,000. After Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson recently expressed dovish views, the market has lowered its bets on a rate hike in October. Driven by this optimistic sentiment, BTC is currently up 1.69%. If tonight's nonfarm data is weaker than expected, the rising expectations of a rate cut will directly boost BTC; if the data is unexpectedly strong, renewed concerns about rate hikes may pressure BTC to fall below $75,000; if it meets expectations, it will most likely remain range-bound. Historical data shows that on nonfarm days, BTC's average volatility is about 2.1%, with bullish and bearish directions almost evenly split, but volatility often doubles within half an hour after the data release. Therefore, high-leverage investors need to be especially cautious of spike movements before and after the data release. Overall, nonfarm payrolls act as a catalyst for short-term volatility, while subsequent CPI data is the key to determining trend sustainability. Investors are advised to make decisions cautiously. @OKX星球 🔥 $ZEC short squad, are we finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel?
I’ve been holding this short from 800 for more than a month. It’s been a long wait, but this latest drop is finally bringing that break-even point within reach. 😮💨
The market can test your patience, but one thing I’ve learned: as long as the position is still alive, there’s still a chance.
Short brothers, stay patient. 🫡
The dawn may finally be getting closer. 🌅📉
#DailyOrbit U.S. Treasury yields frequently hitting new highs suppress risk appetite, and MMT is under pressure following the crypto market. I judge that the short-term rebound structure is intact but the upside space is limited. The price is currently at 0.1862, down 1.3% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 793,000, showing weak momentum. Both the 4-hour and 1-hour trends are upward, but they are only -2.72% and -2.77% from their respective highs, indicating the rebound is near a resistance zone; 0.1825 is today's low support, and 0.1921 is resistance. The order book buy/sell ratio is 1.10, with buyers slightly dominant. The funding rate of 0.0050% indicates mild bullish sentiment, and the open interest of 8,771,000 shows no obvious reduction. Strategically, a light long position can be taken on a pullback to 0.1837, with a stop loss at 0.1793 and a target of 0.1913; if volume breaks above 0.1923, then chase longs with a stop loss at 0.1887 and a target of 0.1987. Position control should be within 20%, and exit decisively if stop loss is hit.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$MMT#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $MMT $SOL
$SOL has slightly outperformed the market, but it's not yet time to blindly chase. OKX spot's 24-hour increase is about 1.8%, with the price close to the upper range boundary. The strength is real, but the breakout hasn't been confirmed by trading volume yet.
I prefer to wait for a pullback: if it holds the previous high and spot volume continues to increase, then we can expect continuation; if it spikes up and quickly falls back into the range, this move is just a high chase that others will have to absorb.US Treasury yields frequently hitting new highs suppress risk appetite, yet SNDK slightly rises against the trend. The funding rate turning negative suggests shorts are testing the waters. I lean slightly bullish in the short term but remain cautious of macro shocks. On the one-hour chart, the trend is still upward, just 0.33 points below the high, but on the four-hour chart, it has fallen 5.79 points from the high, showing a clear divergence of short-term strength versus long-term weakness; buy orders stand at 309 against 201 sell orders, with a strength ratio of 1.53. The turnover is relatively thin at 565,000, with open interest at 44,000. With a negative funding rate, shorts are paying fees. If the price holds above 1710.3, a short squeeze is likely. It is recommended to lightly buy on a pullback to 1742.6, set a stop loss at 1698.4, and target 1832.7; if it breaks through 1800.9 directly, you may add positions, but total holdings should not exceed 20%. Under thin liquidity, be sure to tighten leverage.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$SNDK#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $SNDK The short position planned for this morning has just been entered. The price may continue to break through the previous high.
From the previous consolidation range, 【85,200 has already been broken through】, according to this structure, one would normally choose to go long.
But 【there is the non-farm payroll data at 20:30 tonight】, and since today is Friday, I am more worried that the price might actually pull back after the data is released.
If I go long today, I will pay more attention to 【Ethereum and altcoins】, which might have more potential over the weekend.
The above content is only my personal market analysis and trading ideas record, and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own situation. Filecoin$FIL: Around $1, Big Event on October 15
FIL is currently quoted at about $1.02, showing weak momentum, but a major catalyst is approaching.
On October 15, 2026, the six-year linear token release by Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation will come to a complete end. After this point, the daily new selling pressure across the network will be cut by about 75%, and the annual inflation rate will drop sharply from around 18% to 7%. The market is already positioning ahead of this event, but low trading volume raises doubts about the sustainability of any rebound.
In the short term, $1.08 is a key resistance level; if it can be effectively broken, it may open the way toward $1.15. If it falls below $1, it could further test the $0.92 to $0.98 range. $BTC $ZEC
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #Anthropic披露845亿美元SpaceX算力协议 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市，若科技股情绪升温，或间接提振SOL等风险资产，但我不认为这能改变短期承压格局。盘面看，SOL现价121.39，24小时涨2.3%，成交额858.8万，持仓288.2万，资金费率微正0.0051%，说明多头情绪谨慎。1小时线走弱，距高仅-0.39%；4小时虽升但距低已25.39%，追高风险大。订单簿前10档买卖比0.66，卖压明显，上方阻力122.15，下方支撑117.43。操作上，若回踩117.43附近企稳可轻仓试多，止损设115.87，目标看122.15；若直接冲高至122.15受阻，则反手短空，止损123.68，目标117.43。仓位勿超两成，严格止损，切忌扛单。
——仅为个人看法，不构成投资建议，祝交易顺利。——
$SOL#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 $SOL $XCH hard drive (selling for about $35 on Amazon).
Database SSD
To store the blockchain database, an SSD with at least 520 MB/s read/write speed is required (it doesn't have to be a high-speed NVMe SSD, but unfortunately HDDs are not fast enough). As of mid-2023, the database size is about 130 GB; a 256 GB SSD may be sufficient by 2025. Both external and internal SSDs are acceptable.
Information
Assuming you have a computer without much available space. If you add a 1024GB external SSD, it will be enough to create and store plots as well as store the blockchain database. This is not an ideal setup. Create a larger farm. But if you already have these devices, you can set up a small farm without spending any money.
Once you have the required hardware, it's time to install Chia.
Install Chia
Go to the official download page; download and run the installer for your operating system. The default settings are acceptable for most setups.
After installation, the last screen will show two checkboxes. It is a good idea to check both boxes. Doing so will allow you to run chia in the terminal window without needing the full path, and it will automatically launch the application.
Check both boxes
Run and configure Chia
When you start Chia for the first time, you will be given the option to run in wallet mode or farming mode. You will be setting up a Chia farm,Brothers, $SOL at this position right now is really testing patience.
The price has been stuck around 118, neither going up nor down, which is really frustrating to watch.
But don’t panic just because of one bearish candle, especially near 116, where stop-loss orders are quite dense. If it really breaks below, there might be a quick sharp dip in the short term.
I’m actually more focused on the 113.68 level.
If 116 is broken but it holds steady around 113.68, it would feel more like an emotional purge; but if this level is also smashed through, the market pressure will likely increase significantly.
So the most important thing now isn’t guessing whether the next candle will go up or down, but watching the key levels closely.
Before the data fully settles, short-term volatility tends to amplify.
Brothers, do you think SOL will continue to dip sharply this time, or will it start to stop falling around 116? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $CT I've been watching this coin for a long time. It has been consolidating after a rally for quite a while. If the upward momentum continues to weaken, it will be my next target for shorting.
Concrete provides institutional-grade on-chain yield infrastructure, backed by institutions like Polychain, VanEck, and BitGo. The platform has real deposits and trading volume. Compared to peers, Morpho focuses more on underlying lending, Ondo and Maple work on the asset side, Pendle deals with yield derivatives, while CT aims to be the total service desk for institutions entering DeFi, with a longer chain and higher risk.
The CT token itself has many issues. It is a governance token, and the team clearly states it has no ownership, no dividends, and no profit-sharing rights. When cooperating with Binance Wallet before, users found unusually high slippage on stablecoin swaps, causing significant community backlash. On-chain data has also been inconsistent; the team claims a supply of one billion, but on-chain tracking shows a maximum supply of only a few million with just two holders.
On the chart, the upper resistance has been repeatedly tested. If volume doesn't keep up and it rallies then falls back, I'll look for an entry point for a short-term trade. For the long term, I'll wait until its circulation is transparent and governance truly creates value.
This sector also shares a common risk: protocols like Ondo, Maple, and Pendle have growing asset sizes, but their token prices have dropped more than 70-80% from historical highs. Protocol profits don't equal profits for token holders. CT currently has extremely low circulation and chaotic on-chain data, which contrasts sharply with its institutional-grade positioning. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 @OKX星球 The risk of escalation between the US and Iran rises again, Brent crude returns to $100, and the risk-off sentiment intensifies, putting pressure on the crypto market, but ETH shows resilience. I judge the short-term trend to still be bullish.
24-hour increase of 0.9%, price fluctuates between 2672 and 2727, with a trading volume of only 24.48 million, indicating weak momentum. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends both point upward, the top 10 order book buy-sell ratio is 1.84, clearly favoring buyers; the funding rate is low at 0.0031%, with 590,000 coins held, sentiment is cautious but not overheated. Resistance above is at 2729.5, support below at 2693.2.
Strategy: lightly buy on a pullback to 2694.7, stop loss at 2678.3, target at 2731.6; if volume breaks through 2733.2, increase position, move stop loss up to 2712.5, target 2758.4. Keep position size within 20%, exit immediately if the position breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$ETH#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 $ETH The minimum configuration for $XCH is a Raspberry Pi 4 with 4 GB of RAM for a CLI farm, or 8 GB for a GUI farm. (This guide will show how to set up a GUI farm.) Many farmers choose the Pi because it consumes very little power.
Plotting, on the other hand, is resource-intensive. Fortunately, once a plot is created, it can be farmed for years. A Pi can be used for plotting, but the speed will be quite slow. The same goes for laptops. In the long run, these are not very good choices.
However, for creating your first plot, it’s a good idea to use the device you already have. Once you get a feel for Chia farming, you’ll have a better idea of what to buy later.
Plot storage
For this guide, we will create a single plot. This will require:
4 GB of available memory
If you don’t have that much, Linux swap space can be used, but it will be slow
275 GB of temporary storage space
Hard drives can work, but will be slow
Solid-state drives are much faster; a good choice for this tutorial
RAM is the fastest option (the minimum for RAM plotting is 256 GB; if you don’t have that much, don’t worry for now)
108.8 GB of free space for the plot to reside
Solid-state drives can work, but that’s overkill
The vast majority of plots are stored on HDDs
A laptop or desktop with 400 GB of available space will meet these requirements. Another option is a 512 GB external solid-state drive This is not a "bottom" now; it's a mid-rebound, and a rebound against the wind.
First, look at the position: BTC is around 85,000, down 33% from the 126,000 high, but it has already rebounded from 78,000. The Fear and Greed Index is 72–74 (greed zone)—buying in the greed zone is not a bottom, it's catching the falling knife.
The macro environment is truly against the wind: The Fed just raised rates by 25bp in September to 3.75–4.00%, officials are talking about another hike in December, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.29%, a 22-year high, with real rates near 3%. In a high real interest rate environment, the valuation center of no-yield assets is suppressed.
Structurally, rotation hasn't been completed: BTC dominance is 58%, altcoin season index is only 51–54 (75 counts as altcoin season), this is a "BTC leads, altcoins follow" recovery, not a broad rally.
What to do: BTC/ETH can be bought in small batches; altcoins should only be touched if they have real fees and buybacks (like AERO). Pure narrative tokens like CORE and ORDI are only suitable for small speculative plays. Avoid leverage—the funding rate is already annualized at 10%, longs are crowded, and a single spike can wash them out.$ZEC Negative News
1. Regulatory Risk (Biggest Risk): Privacy coins are naturally a key regulatory target. Once restrictive policies are introduced, a rapid price crash may occur.
2. Chip Realization: This round of price increase mainly comes from institutional treasury allocations. When institutions take profits and exit in batches, and there are not enough retail investors to take over, a deep correction is likely; the historical risk of the Orchard vulnerability has not been completely eliminated and could be brought up by the market at any time as negative pricing news.
3. Contract Squeeze Risk: With high open interest, once a key support level is broken, it will trigger a chain reaction of long position liquidations, accelerating the decline.
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 BTC is trending so high, why is ETH so weak! Should I exit this position first? I'm really conflicted.
---
Brothers, look at the screenshot.
I bottomed bought ETH long at 2685, now it has risen to 2718, with an unrealized profit of +23.37%. Making money is a good thing, but I can't feel happy at all. Watching BTC surge wildly while ETH drags like a sickly patient, I really feel uncertain.
On the 1-hour chart, ETH broke through 2718, reaching a high near 2748. But look at the moving averages, although MA5 and MA10 have started to turn up, the overall trend is clearly weaker than BTC.
2750 above is a strong resistance level, which is also my take-profit line. Once BTC pulls back slightly, ETH’s "follows the drop but not the rise" temperament can instantly wipe out all profits.
Ethereum’s recent news is weak, plus negative disturbances like the staking reward burn proposal, funds have all fled to BTC and SOL. Without independent positive catalysts, ETH is unlikely to have a strong independent rally.
In this market, don’t be too greedy when making money. BTC eats meat, ETH drinks soup; being able to get the soup to your mouth is a victory. Exit part of the position first, pocket the profits, and leave the rest to the market!
$ETH
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 【On-Chain Trading Update｜SOL】
Monitored address 0x9c06 opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: 121 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 199,916.37 USD
▪ Leverage: 20x#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling down capital heat, and WLD is hard to remain unaffected. Although there is a short-term rebound, I judge the overall trend to still be weak and oscillating.
However, the market contradictions are obvious: both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are rising, yet they are respectively 6.99% and 11.43% below their highs. The current price of 0.5122 has pulled back but has not broken 0.4801. Buy orders are 281,000, suppressing sell orders of 202,000; funding rate is -0.0006%, open interest is 67,568,000. Shorts have some covering, but long chasing is cautious.
Strategy-wise, lightly go long on a pullback to 0.4968, stop loss at 0.4793, target 0.5386; if it rallies to 0.5412 and faces resistance, short briefly with stop loss at 0.5527. Position size should not exceed 20%, exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. —
$WLD#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling down capital heat
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling down capital heat $WLD