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"PCE Data + Waller's Debut, 5 Quick Takes"
1/ First, the data: July PCE year-over-year at 3.7%, expected 3.6%.
Up by 0.1 percentage points.
Core PCE year-over-year at 3.3%, exactly the same as June.
Economists originally expected it to come down. It didn’t.
In the current Fed atmosphere, “no improvement” means “worsening.”
Once the data came out, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 36% to over 40%.
A blunt truth: inflation isn’t improving, it’s just standing still. And what the market fears most isn’t bad news, but “good news that falls short of expectations.”
2/ But the real problem isn’t the 3.7%.
It’s zero real growth in consumption.
Personal income rose 0.4% in July, consumption expenditure rose 0.2%, looks okay, right?
After adjusting for inflation, real consumption spending didn’t increase at all.
Even worse: compared to a year ago, inflation-adjusted income only rose 0.2% — it had been negative for several months before this.
Five years of cumulative price increases have completely eroded income.
In consumer confidence surveys, most Americans remain pessimistic about the economy and their personal finances.
In plain terms: Americans have no money left, and prices keep rising. This is the worst combination for risk assets — no new funds, only existing funds being squeezed.
3/ Tomorrow night at 10 PM Beijing time, Waller’s Jackson Hole debut.
This is his first time speaking on this globally watched stage since taking office in May this year.
Since taking office, he has played a “talk less” strategy — at the July FOMC meeting, three officials already voted against and advocated a 25 basis point hike.
The market is voting with its feet.
Tomorrow night he must speak. Otherwise, the market will speak for him.
Regarding Waller, the market consensus is: whether he speaks is more important than what he says.
4/ What does the market really think?
A recent survey shows:
80% want Waller to clarify his economic views
But on whether “he should talk about rates” — 48% yes, 48% no, completely split
The Fed itself is similarly divided. Those advocating waiting say “inflation hasn’t worsened”; those advocating hikes say “inflation has been above target for over five years.”
Both sides can find ammunition in the data.
The Fed now is like a car stuck at a crossroads — going forward means hikes, standing still means inflation, whichever way it goes, someone will criticize.
5/ CME FedWatch latest probabilities: 44% chance of a September hike, December hike probability has soared above 67%.
But that’s not the main point.
The key is: if Waller tomorrow night characterizes inflation as a “supply shock” — this whole pricing is wrong.
The hike probabilities will be recalculated overnight.
See you at 10 PM tomorrow night for the verdict.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 1/ First, look at the surface numbers.
On August 26, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the second estimate of Q2 GDP: 1.5%.
Much slower than Q1's 2.1%. Sounds weak, right? Inflation stubbornly high, zero growth in consumption.
The market panicked. Bitcoin plunged below $78,000. The probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 36% to 44%.
But underneath lies a completely different story.
2/ Breaking down GDP, you find a "structural illusion."
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in Q2, revised up from the initial estimate of 3.2%. In Q1, this figure was only 0.5%.
Excluding residential, business investment grew 8.5%—the heat of AI investment.
A measure that specifically gauges the economy's intrinsic strength—final sales to private domestic purchasers—excluding volatile government spending and trade, grew 4.2%, the strongest in over three years. This was revised up from the initial 3.9%.
1.5% versus 4.2%, nearly a threefold difference.
3/ So what dragged the 1.5% down?
Imports.
Imports surged at an annualized rate of 12.5% in Q2. A large portion of this was computer chips and related products supporting AI investment.
GDP only counts domestic production; imports are subtracted—this item alone cut 1.64 percentage points.
Ironically?
The chips imported to build AI infrastructure lowered the U.S.'s own growth figures.
4/ This creates an absurd picture—
The AI investment boom is real. In Q2, companies frantically bought chips and built computing power, consumption grew strongly at 3.4%, domestic demand momentum is the strongest in over three years.
But reflected in GDP, it's only 1.5%.
The U.S. economy is like a 4.2% wolf disguised in 1.5% sheep's clothing—strong, but hidden by import figures.
5/ More troubling is inflation.
July's PCE price index year-over-year was 3.7%, exactly the same as June. Core PCE year-over-year was 3.3%, also unchanged.
Economists originally expected it to drop to 3.6%. It didn't.
"No improvement" itself is the answer.
Once the data came out, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 36% to 42%-44%. Traders have fully priced in one rate hike before year-end.
6/ And this is where the crypto market should really be anxious.
Inflation has been above the 2% target for over five years. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh promised to end inflation but has given no indication so far—does he believe inflation can fall on its own without rate hikes?
Wednesday's data showed it cannot.
On Friday, Warsh will deliver his first major speech since taking office at Jackson Hole.
Bank of America warns: if he doesn't signal rate hikes, the 30-year Treasury yield could surge to 5.5%.
7/ What does this mean for the crypto market?
If Warsh signals rate hikes—risk assets come under pressure, and Bitcoin's "easy money expectation" narrative breaks.
If he doesn't signal—long-term bond yields soar, the dollar weakens, which is also not good.
It's a "lose-lose" situation for risk assets.
8/ But the deeper issue is here—
The market has been trading on "1.5% weak economy + inflation peak = rate cut expectations."
But the real economy is 4.2% strong domestic demand + AI investment boom + real momentum hidden by imports.
What if Warsh sees the latter?
What if he judges "the economy isn't that weak, and inflation won't fall easily"?
Then the "easy money trade" the crypto market has bet on for the past month could be completely wrong.
9/ The painful truth is—
Bitcoin just approached $80,000 last week, and the market was euphoric.
But once the PCE data came out, BTC promptly fell below $78,000.
The $2,000 gap between $78,000 and $80,000 doesn't depend on technicals or ETF fund flows.
It depends on one person's words at the podium in Wyoming on Friday.
$ETH $ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $SOL The overall market shows a hint of red amidst the green, with the total crypto market cap down 2.35%, and Bitcoin slightly retracing by 0.54%, but the funds within this line haven't withdrawn. Top 3 daily gainers: Binance's staked Ethereum surged directly to 1.95%, ranking first, $Lido followed with a 1.62% increase, and $AAVE, the lending leader, rose 1.39% simultaneously. The staking trio and lending leader moving in sync indicates that off-exchange funds haven't fled, just repositioning within the ecosystem. What’s truly noteworthy is the 7-day line: Binance CEX's weekly gain is 18.40%, dominating the market and attracting significant capital inflow over the week. This contrasts with the purely on-chain narrative, as funds are flowing back into centralized platforms over the week, while on-chain leaders rely on spot hedging. The 1-day and 7-day trends are taking two different paths: 1-day is gathering on-chain, 7-day is accumulating on exchanges. This divergence is most likely to be amplified at the start of a major market move. $ETH The current picture is essentially “strong fundamentals, but increasingly demanding valuations.”
Before the earnings announcement, NVDA briefly traded around $210.55, down approximately 3.2% from the previous close, noticeably underperforming $QQQ, which was down about 0.9%. This suggests investors had already taken some risk off the table in major AI names ahead of the report#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest What scent did the whales catch? 😂 I was about to go to sleep, but then I saw the on-chain activity and suddenly became wide awake. According to the data I’m watching, Bitkub’s co-founder reportedly moved out of his entire 34,000 ZEC position, worth more than $26 million, and rotated the funds into roughly 238 BTC. That’s a pretty interesting switch. A few details caught my attention: 1️⃣ He didn’t use OTC. Instead, around 24,000 ZEC was reportedly sold directly through Hyperliquid within 24 hoThe 0x20c...4f5 address on Hyperliquid has shorted 30,000 ETH at 50x leverage (approximately $110 million), which should be @ResolvLabs' delta-neutral strategy short hedge position, rather than a whale.
The 0x20c...4f5 address and Resolv's 0xacB...b8e contract address have multiple transfers between them and share the same Binance deposit address.
Additionally, according to Resolv's documentation, they short ETH via perpetual contracts to hedge and achieve a delta-neutral strategy.
Therefore, the 0x20c...4f5 address is likely the address Resolv uses to execute the short hedge, not a whale.
Short short short, living in the palace📉$OKB quietly rises, the most stable among platform tokens
OKB is currently priced around $112, down slightly by 0.1% in 24 hours, but up 11% weekly and 31% monthly, quietly gaining strength among platform tokens. Honestly, OKB's trend is more stable than I expected.
On-chain is bullish: funding rate +0.007%, longs are paying shorts interest, a typical bullish bet; technically, RSI is 72 entering overbought but the golden cross remains, the 50-day moving average just crossed above the 200-day moving average, the mid-term structure is intact. OKX continues buyback and burn to support the price, with 21 million tokens locked in circulation.
Whale activity: 91% of OKX perpetual positions are concentrated on its own order book, indicating the platform and core whales haven't fled, chips are stable. But I noticed on August 21 it was just above $100, pulsing to $115 within a week, showing considerable volatility.
My judgment: OKB's logic is "exchange performance + buyback + catch-up rally," BTC is oscillating around 80,000, platform tokens are just along for the ride. $112 is neither cheap nor expensive; those wanting to get in would feel more comfortable waiting for a pullback to $105–108. Don't all in, platform tokens' black swan events are always irrational. The stronger Nvidia’s earnings are, the more the AI trade moves into a “nitpicking” phase.
Earlier, the market only needed one narrative: explosive demand. Now, that story is already priced in. Revenue beats, strong orders, and continued data-center growth are no longer enough to surprise investors.
The real valuation drivers are shifting toward the finer details—gross margins, rising memory costs, customer concentration.
#PCEToJacksonHole
#AIMonetizationBroadens
#BTCOptionsExpiryTest 1/ Last night, the PCE data was released.
July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, unchanged from June, 0.1 percentage points higher than the expected 3.6%.
Once the data came out, the probability of a September rate hike jumped directly from 36% to 44%.
The market panicked. Bitcoin fell from $81,237 directly below $78,000. Gold plunged. Everyone is asking the same question: Will Walsh announce a rate hike on Friday?
But no one is asking the real question—
Does a rate hike actually help with the current inflation?
2/ First, let's clarify one thing: there are two types of inflation.
The first is demand-driven inflation.
The economy is overheated, everyone has too much money, companies can raise prices at will, and consumers have no choice but to pay.
This kind of inflation responds to rate hikes. Taking money out reduces demand, and prices naturally stabilize.
The second is supply shock inflation.
War cuts off oil routes, tariffs break supply chains, chips are in short supply—not too much money, but too few goods.
This kind of inflation is unaffected by rate hikes.
Raising interest rates to 10% won’t make Iranian oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Raising rates to 15% won’t make the $20 billion tariffs from the US-Canada trade dispute disappear.
3/ Let's look at what we are facing now.
Iran war—Strait of Hormuz remains closed, global oil market daily shortfall of 1.8 million barrels in Q3. London Brent crude once broke $90 per barrel.
US-Canada trade war—On August 22 early morning, the US imposed a 50% tariff on $20 billion of Canadian goods. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said, "Being attacked means being at war." Reciprocal countermeasures take effect on September 8.
AI chip shortage—NVIDIA AI server prices rose over 15%, median retail price of RTX 50 series graphics cards increased 39% from June to August.
Diesel price surge—On August 26, the US average diesel price was $5.62 per gallon, approaching the June 2022 record high of $5.82.
4/ Tell me, which of these can a rate hike solve?
Can a rate hike open the Strait of Hormuz?
Can a rate hike make Trump cancel tariffs?
Can a rate hike double chip production overnight?
No.
A rate hike only does one thing: kills demand.
Demand dies, companies stop hiring, wages stop rising, people stop spending.
But supply still won’t come back.
5/ The Fed is already in turmoil internally.
At the July FOMC meeting, 3 officials voted against a rate hike—the highest opposition in ten years.
Cleveland Fed President Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan voted no, advocating an immediate 25 basis point hike.
And Walsh? He has not yet expressed a position.
"Fed mouthpiece" Timiraos bluntly said: The core question Walsh must answer on Friday is—Is inflation a one-time shock caused by tariffs and war, or is the economy still overheated?
6/ The answer to this question determines whether a rate hike is effective.
If Walsh believes inflation is a "supply shock"—he won’t hike rates.
Because rate hikes don’t work on supply shocks and will wreck the economy.
But the market’s current 44% probability bets that "Walsh is hawkish."
7/ The harsh truth is?
The market may be completely betting in the wrong direction.
There is a detail in the July PCE data that most people overlook: inflation-adjusted consumer spending was zero growth in July.
It was growing strongly in the previous two months, but dropped to zero in July.
Inflation-adjusted personal income rose only 0.2% year-on-year. It had been negative for several months before.
Ordinary people have been hollowed out by five years of cumulative price increases.
Raising rates now? How are ordinary people supposed to survive?
8/ Walsh is not Powell.
Powell is gradualist, likes to give guidance so the market can slowly digest it.
Walsh’s style is "say less"—he removed forward guidance from the FOMC statement right after taking office.
He doesn’t feed the market a pacifier.
But because of this, no one knows what he will say on Friday.
He might drop a bombshell at Jackson Hole—like admitting this is a supply shock and no rate hike is needed.
9/ What does this mean for the crypto market?
If Walsh classifies it as a "supply shock" → no rate hike → weaker dollar → bullish for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has already risen 28% in August, once breaking $81,000. If rate hike expectations are dispelled, what do you think will happen?
The 44% rate hike probability bets that "Walsh is hawkish."
But what if he’s not?
10/ One last thing.
The market always prices in "what everyone thinks will happen."
But the real money is made by those who realize "everyone might be completely wrong."
Before Friday, everyone is anxious about rate hikes.
Maybe the ones who should really be anxious are those betting on rate hikes.
/ Conclusion
Inflation has been above 2% for 65 consecutive months.
3 officials voted for a rate hike, the most in ten years.
44% of the market bets on a September rate hike.
But no one asks: Does a rate hike actually work?
If inflation is driven by war and tariffs—rate hikes are just an overreaction in the wrong direction.
On Friday, Walsh will give us the answer.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 71.
This is the reading of the Crypto Fear and Greed Index on August 27. The market is in the "Greed" zone, up 6 points from yesterday's 65.
But if you only look at today's number, you miss the most exciting part of this story.
First, two weeks ago, this number was 27.
On August 12, the Fear and Greed Index was only 27 — "Fear".
On August 6, it even dropped to 25 — "Extreme Fear".
From late July to August 19, the index stayed in the "Fear" zone for nearly a month straight.
Then, in two weeks, everything changed dramatically.
On August 25, the index surged to 81 — "Extreme Greed", the first time in 616 days. The market jumped directly from "Extreme Fear" to "Extreme Greed", the only time since CoinMarketCap started tracking this index.
From 25 on August 6 to 81 on August 25 — a 56-point surge in 19 days. From 27 on August 12 to 81 on August 25 — a 54-point surge in 13 days. A month ago, the index was 36 (Fear), and a week ago it was 41 (Neutral).
A 45-point swing in 30 days almost wiped out all the cautious sentiment accumulated in the first half of 2026.
Then, it fell back to 71.
The market is like a stretched rubber band, wildly oscillating. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Fundamental Research Report $REDSTONE / RedStone (Oracle/Middleware) $3.20
Conclusion first: RedStone ($REDSTONE) overall score 62/100, rating Narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Fundamental breakdown: RedStone (token $REDSTONE), oracle/middleware sector. Focuses on modular oracles. Competitors include LINK, PYTH. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Customer price per user $50-500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as a niche single-point tool. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing seen on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales seen in whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration seen via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: RedStone $3.00B, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. FDV: RedStone $4.20B, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. Annual revenue: RedStone $2.00M, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: RedStone undisclosed, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Summary: fundamentals solid (score 62/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Risk warnings: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information from public sources, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
Fundamentals covered here, the rest is up to the market.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit🔥 Sanctions are tightening. Oil is falling. What are we missing? 👀
The US keeps ramping up pressure on Iran, targeting oil flows, shipping, digital assets, and gold—with “zero leakage” as the goal.
So you’d expect $CL and $BZ to surge.
Instead, both dropped more than 4%. 📉
Here’s the catch: oil doesn’t rally just because sanctions sound aggressive. The real question is whether those sanctions actually remove enough supply from the global market.
#DailyOrbit #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
NVIDIA $NVDA's latest earnings report showed a 106% year-over-year revenue increase and a 113% year-over-year gross profit increase.
After-hours price initially dropped,
but quickly reversed to a rise after the earnings call began.
Attributing this retrospectively based on the sequence of information disclosure,
the two price movements roughly correspond to two different sets of data received by the market.
1. The after-hours drop may have come from NVIDIA's guidance for next quarter's gross margin being slightly below market expectations.
(NVIDIA expects next quarter's gross margin to be about 74%, slightly below the market expectation of 74.77%)
For a company whose valuation heavily depends on growth quality,
future revenue exceeding expectations but with a decline in gross margin is the most obvious negative information for the market after the earnings release.
Additionally, during the earnings call, management stated that due to rising memory prices, gross margin may further decline in Q4.
However, this data indicates that gross margin pressure may persist longer, but since it was disclosed only during the call, it cannot explain the initial drop right after the earnings release.
2. The subsequent price rise is easier to understand.
NVIDIA expects fiscal year 2028 revenue growth of about 70%, while the market's average expectation before the earnings was only around 44%.
This significantly exceeds market expectations.
Combined with the factors affecting gross margin, this is still a forecast constrained by supply limitations NVIDIA's earnings report is out, continuing to greatly exceed expectations, indicating that the capital expenditure logic for AI hasn't broken down for now.
The stock price also reacted after hours. But the biggest issue with AI right now isn't whether the performance is good, but how much valuation the market is still willing to give for such good performance.
For the storage + AI sector, I think the long-term logic still holds, but in the short term, too many people have already crowded in. It feels invincible when rising, but a pullback of several tens of percentage points is completely normal.
So ordinary people really don't need to study individual stocks every day. Just slowly invest regularly in QQQ or the S&P. If you truly understand the hot sectors, buy a little on dips; if you don't understand, don't force it. Stocks aren't a place to get rich overnight, and neither is the crypto world.The SEC is redefining crypto custody
🇺🇸 Just now, a regulatory signal worth long-term attention:
The SEC has submitted a proposal to modernize crypto asset custody rules to the White House OMB for review.
On the surface, this is about "custody rules," but essentially it could affect how Wall Street funds enter Crypto.
The traditional securities custody framework in the past may not fully fit native digital assets like BTC.
If future rules develop towards being more technology-neutral, risk-oriented, and adapted to crypto-native infrastructure, then custody solutions like MPC, multi-signature, as well as banks, broker-dealers, and investment advisors participating in crypto asset custody, could all gain greater regulatory space.
More importantly:
ETFs solve "how institutions buy BTC."
Custody rules solve "how institutions compliantly hold BTC after buying it."
This is actually another piece of the puzzle for the maturation of Crypto financial infrastructure.
Of course, this is currently only at the OMB review stage; the specific final rules still need to be observed, and no specific policy details should be taken as established facts yet.
But the direction is worth noting:
The U.S. is moving from "allowing institutions to buy Crypto" to gradually "how to make the entire institutional Crypto financial system operate normally."
For BTCfi, what’s truly worth watching may be right here.₿Crypto has actually been undergoing a very obvious change in recent years: institutions are no longer just betting on "the entire market going up". Viktor Fischer and Austin Barack from RockawayX recently mentioned that they believe Crypto has shown some bottoming signals. But what I find more worth watching is not whether they are bullish or not, but that the way institutions make money is changing. Previously, many Crypto funds mainly earned Beta, which is the money from the overall market rising. Simply put, when $BTC goes up, altcoins go up together, and it’s easy to make money buying anything. But now, more and more institutions are starting to go long on good projects, short on poor projects, trade Crypto-related stocks, and even do Pair Trades, which means buying strong ones and selling weak ones to profit from the price difference between projects. This is actually very similar to the early maturation process of the internet industry. As the number of projects increases, not all can succeed. There will be those that can truly deliver products, users, and cash flow, and there will definitely be those that rely only on stories and eventually get eliminated. So if Crypto continues to institutionalize, in the future it may increasingly resemble the US stock market: it’s not that everything goes up in a bull market, but the differentiation between projects becomes more severe. I actually think this is a sign of industry maturity. People are no longer blindly viewing "cryptocurrency" as a whole, but seriously distinguishing what is worth buying, what should be avoided, and even what is worth shorting. The true mainstream acceptance of Crypto may not be when everyone starts toPCE delivered numbers, not direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY and rose 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP stayed at 1.5% annualized. Sticky inflation, resilient underlying demand, and no clean signal for the Fed.
Rate pricing moved, then came back. September hike odds jumped from about 36% to 44% after the release before easing to 36-37%. Odds of at least one hike by year-end remain near 73%. The broader path barely changed.
That shifts attention to Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Friday at 10AM. The symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." A $300B stablecoin market and the GENIUS Act sit in the backdrop, though the keynote's contents are not yet public.
Treasury's decision to at least double the cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks coincided with renewed demand for inflation and dollar-risk hedges. Through Aug 26, BTC was on track for its best August since 2017.
The hedge trade is broadening:
· August BTC ETF inflows have topped $3B, on track for the strongest month since October 2025
· Cumulative net inflows are near $54.4B, with net assets around $99B
· GLD took in $3.4B in the week ended Aug 21, while GLD and IBIT re-entered the top 10 US ETFs by value traded
This is not gold versus bitcoin. Both perceived hedges are being bid as investors reassess inflation, the fiscal outlook and dollar risk.
Friday also brings a major BTC options expiry:
· About 81,700 BTC options worth $6.44B expire at 08:00 UTC
· 44,639 calls versus 37,061 puts; put/call ratio 0.83
· Max pain is near $68K
· $75K holds about $236M in call OI, with another $157M at $80K
Max pain is not a forecast. It misses hedging, entry costs, off-exchange positions and spot demand. But the expiry and Warsh's speech land six hours apart, with BTC near $79K after being rejected around its 50-week average near $81.1K.
PCE is done. Friday is the real test. Which matters more for BTC: Warsh's policy tone or the options expiry?
#PCEToJacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #GoldVsBTCETFFlows #BTC surge and pullback, options expiry amplifies key level battle
BTC surged to 80000 then pulled back, with options concentrated expiry amplifying the key level battle. On August 28, about $6.44 billion worth of BTC options expire, with some positions distributed between 75000 and 80000, and both bulls and bears will take action in the last two days.
K33 research shows this round of rally includes the largest single-day short squeeze on record, with futures open interest subsequently declining, indicating short covering was a major driver of the earlier gains. ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, with incremental funds entering the market, but the rapid price surge also increased holders' willingness to realize profits. The short squeeze effect is weakening; whether ETFs and spot buying can continue to absorb high-level selling will determine if this rally is a trend recovery or a temporary rebound. Currently, I am bullish on $UNI. This time, it's not just trend support; Uniswap's product progress, protocol revenue, and UNI token burning mechanism over the past few months are gradually connecting to the same narrative. Technically, we've reached a critical point that needs confirmation. Protocol usage can finally be converted into UNI supply reduction. After UNIfication passed, Uniswap has enabled protocol fees in the v2 and v3 pools of 11 chains. Revenue is converted into UNI through TokenJar and Firepit mechanisms, which are then burned. According to data released in July, after the mechanism launched, about 7.5 million UNI and $25.6 million were burned, with a single-day peak burning of 186,000 UNI. This means UNI is no longer just about governance; protocol trading volume is beginning to connect with token supply. The next step is the v4 protocol fee. Currently, the v4 fee controller is still in the governance process and should not be prematurely implemented; However, if it is approved later, v4 static pools, CCA pools, and aggregator hooks may all add sources for coin burning. Uniswap is positioning itself as a liquidity gateway for RWA and institutional assets This year, Uniswap will integrate tokenized stocks, bonds, and yield-generating assets into Web apps, wallets, and APIs. Official statistics show that cumulative RWA pool transactions have exceeded $9.1 billion, covering 2.6 billion USD2375.94 long $ETH, 100x leverage, currently 2491.24. Review of entry: Around 2375 is the lower edge of a densely traded zone tested multiple times previously, providing natural support. The reason for entering 100x leverage was the obvious thickness of buy orders on the order book and dense support orders below at that time.
Currently at 2491.24, just a step away from the 2500 whole number level. Historical data shows that near 2500, there is often a "false breakout + rapid pullback" shakeout. Such a shakeout is extremely damaging for 100x leverage positions (a 2% pullback would wipe out all unrealized profits).
Improvement point: For 100x positions, actively reduce position size before the whole number level. For this trade, the first tier of reduction was executed near 2491, with the remaining stop loss moved up to the 2375 cost basis. Do not gamble on breakouts, only profit from confirmed ranges. Next time with 100x leverage, reducing position size before key levels will be a strict rule. $BTC $SOL 📊 BTC cycle debate: After surging back to $80k from ~$60k within just over one month, does the classic "find cycle bottom in Sep‑Oct" thesis still hold?
This rapid rebound is partly fueled by short‑squeeze and improving US treasury‑liquidity sentiment, not definitive proof that the bear phase is fully over.
Four‑year‑halving seasonal patterns are only statistical probabilities, not fixed rules. Institutional capital via spot ETFs has the power to reshape cycle timing.GDP SLOWS, MONTHLY INFLATION IS SOFTER: BTC BENEFITS OR IS IT AT RISK? US GDP in the second quarter grew by 1.5%, slowing down from 2.1% in the first quarter. PCE and core PCE in July both increased by 0.2%, while personal income grew faster than spending. This is a combination of two-sided data. Monthly inflation not rising sharply may ease pressure on interest rates, but slowing growth also makes cash flows cautious of risk assets. BTC is around 78.9K. There is no new RSI yet, so I don't assign a LONG or SHORT signal. Tonight we need to keep an eye on the number of orders$BTC $ETH BTC is now around 79,000. It's up about 23% in the past 7 days, but many people overlook a crucial math problem: a 50% drop doesn't mean you can recover—it's about a 100% increase. BTC previously fell from a high of 126,000 and has dropped all the way down. Although it's still about 37% away from the previous high, it only needs to rise about 59% more. That's the most interesting part of the rally. Every step up earlier is the harder it is to recover later. This wave is 23%. The rise isn't just about the price rising 23%. It's more like BTC quietly repaying a large debt from its decline. Of course, bulls can't celebrate too soon. On one hand, spot ETF funds keep flowing in, and real buying is starting to pick up. On the other hand, this rally is also fueled by a large number of short liquidations. Short squeezes can instantly push the price up, but whether it can hold still depends on whether there is sustained capital relay going forward. Next, the market will need to focus on macro data, especially the performance of PCE. My current view is simple: short liquidations are responsible for pushing BTC upward Spot funds determine whether it can stay. This rally has gradually shifted from how to recover to another question: is it the end point of the rebound or the starting point for a return to the previous high? The difficulty of breaking even is decreasing, but whether it can hold depends on the funds. Don't bet on direction when emotions are at their peak. #US core PCE flat last month, how will Walsh-Jackson Hall's speech set the tone? #财报观察员: Nvidia beats expectations, software revenue begins to pay #BTC冲高回落, options arriveSisters, I'm stunned!
Seeing the live trading account, I'm completely shocked!
I actually made this much profit 😯
With nothing to do at work, I opened my live trading account and was surprised to find I had profited over 400U!
Wow, I'm really amazing, right?
Of course, I have to thank all the sisters for their help and the big players for sharing, which allowed me to profit step by step.
Although the big player told me to short ZEC yesterday, and the floating profit turned back to break-even, I think I can still hold on a bit longer.
Looking at the K-line, although ZEC rose a bit today, the SAR is still pressing at 796, and the MACD death cross hasn't converged; the bearish structure hasn't broken yet.
The short-term rebound looks more like a breather in a correction, not a reversal.
The big player said before that it would only start pumping again if it fell below 700; the price is still around 780, so there's room to go.
Moreover, the open interest of ZEC perpetual contracts surged from 960 million on August 19 to 1.8 billion, nearly doubling.
The 24-hour contract trading volume hit 9.5 billion, while spot is only 1 billion; 95% of the volume is leverage-driven, not real buying.
Once the price can't hold, the longs become fuel for a stampede.
The key is that big money is also running!
In the past 24 hours, a wallet cluster suspected to be from the co-founder of the Thai exchange Bitkub transferred 34,100 ZEC to Hyperliquid, worth about 26.1 million USD.
Of these, 24,100 ZEC have already been sold and converted to BTC. Whales are selling, retail investors are taking the risk.
Making over 400U profit is good, but I know this is not the end.
I used to be eager to cash out quickly, but now I've learned to hold a bit longer.
I'm continuing to hold this ZEC short position to see how far it can go.
If it really falls to 700, then that would be a real profit. 😁
$BTC
$ETH
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Market divergence snapshot: $OKTA surges +19.85% while $WEN drops ‑11% in one session, a massive spread of 30.85 percentage points.
Not a broad‑based rally. Capital is aggressively stock‑picking amid earnings season. Strong results get heavy premium; weak prints get sharp discount. Stock‑selection risk is elevated.
For discussion only, not investment advice.Niulai Many position increases are happening on alpha, is someone hiding something? Let's take a look at the data! August 27, 2026 #Niulai Top 40 token holding addresses data changes 1: pancake address: outflow 10.6% alpha address: inflow 3.86% 2: Top 10 individual addresses: 3 increased positions, 1 decreased, 1 new entry Top 20 individual addresses: 3 decreased positions, 2 increased Top 40 individual addresses: 2 decreased positions, 5 new entries, 1 increased $Niulai Daily key summary: Three days have passed, today some brothers want to check Niulai, so I arranged a solo analysis immediately. Now let's look at the overall data. First, alpha addresses had an inflow of 3.86%, only this much inflow in 3 days, proving the overall inflow has stabilized. Among the top 40 addresses, 6 increased positions; of these 6, 4 were transfers in, 2 were real on-chain buy-ins. Among the top 40, 6 decreased positions; 5 were real decreases, 1 transferred tokens out. The solo analysis compared the number of increases and decreases, with a large difference—many more increases. Among the top 40, 6 addresses are new entries; 2 were transfers in, 2 increased positions, and 2 rose in ranking to enter. Corresponding to the 6 addresses that dropped out, 4 fully exited, 1 transferred tokens to KuCoin exchange, and 1 decreased half of their holdings. That's the overall data. Next, a brief analysis: last time solo analysis said to watch on-chain.BTC 79,000, ETH 2,507, the familiar script again—pushed back just at the 80,000 threshold.
In 24 hours, BTC slightly rose 0.45%, ETH rose 2.84%, after breaking through 81,000 on August 25, it fell back for two consecutive days. The Fear and Greed Index is 71, indicating a "greedy state." After a weekly increase of 13.97%, the market is waiting for the next catalyst.
Institutional money hasn't stopped. Fidelity's FBTC saw a single-day inflow of $25.6 million, and last week the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $1.9 billion. The SEC is also active. On August 27, it submitted a crypto custody reform proposal aimed at investment firms to the White House; the regulatory framework is moving forward.
But the technical side is a bit tangled. BTC's bullish structure above EMA50 remains intact, RSI is neutral to slightly weak, MACD death cross momentum is weakening, and the price is testing the upper Bollinger Band resistance at 80,328—short-term pullback probability is considerable.
I judge 80,000 as a psychological barrier, not a technical top. The real direction will be decided by the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15. If it passes, 80,000 becomes a floor; if not, this wave is the emotional peak driven by policy expectations.
Hold spot positions steady, wait before chasing highs.
$BTC $ETH NVIDIA's earnings report compared to history under three scenarios
1. Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations, but guidance only meets market expectations
👉 Reference history: In the last 4 quarters, after-hours briefly surged, then fell the next day.
2. Scenario 2: Both revenue and Q3 guidance greatly exceed expectations, Rubin chip progress surpasses expectations
👉 Reference 2025-05 quarter, stock rose after earnings, boosting the AI sector and risk appetite, favorable for cryptocurrencies.
3. Scenario 3: Revenue/guidance below expectations
👉 Reference 2025-02, after-hours dropped more than 5% directly, risk appetite collapsed, US stocks and cryptocurrencies pressured simultaneously. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC failed to break through 80,000 in the past two days. On August 25th, it peaked at $81,238, then quickly fell back to around 79,000 and fluctuated. 78K is support, while 80K-81K is strong resistance.
There are two reasons for the pullback:
First, the short squeeze fuel has run out. This rally from 63,000 to 81,000 saw about $3 billion in short positions liquidated within two days. Once the forced liquidation-driven violent surge ends, mechanical buying stops, and profit-taking follows.
Second, the PCE data dampened the bulls' enthusiasm. July's PCE year-over-year was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The market priced in a 38% chance of a rate hike in September. The dollar surged to an eight-day high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield returned to 4.667%, hitting risk assets first.
💡 For the shorts, now is the best window to escape.
The logic is straightforward: 80K-81K is a dense trading resistance zone, so every rebound near this level is a golden opportunity to reduce positions; the fear and greed index is still at 71 in the greed zone, meaning sentiment hasn't been fully cleansed, and a rebound could happen anytime. Don't expect it to drop straight to 50,000.
If 78K is truly broken on the daily chart, concentrated long leverage liquidations below will trigger a chain of forced liquidations, causing panic selling, and then you might be reluctant to close your positions.
Quietly closing short positions in the 79,000-81,000 resistance zone and locking in profits is much more reliable than betting on a one-sided move. This round's bottom was ground out, not smashed down—the best outcome for shorts is to exit during consolidation, not to get stuck halfway up the mountain when a one-sided move arrives.$KO has significantly outperformed M7 tech stocks this year, representing a typical risk-off trading scenario. The current valuation is relatively high, and further gains heavily depend on market sentiment.
▪️Short term: A short-term rebound will only occur if the US tech sector experiences a clear pullback and risk-off sentiment intensifies; this is a pulse-type market and chasing highs is not advisable.
▪️Mid term (Q4 earnings season): Upside potential depends on whether Q3 revenue and earnings guidance exceed expectations; a trend of sustained growth requires fundamental-driven momentum.
▪️Bearish scenario: If market risk appetite recovers and capital flows back into the AI growth sector, $KO will likely consolidate to digest its valuation.$KO Coca-Cola's 31% rise this year comes from market risk rotation, with funds switching from volatile AI growth stocks to essential consumer defensive assets.
Currently, the stock price is near its historical high, and the valuation is already in a premium range, making it difficult to sustain an independent upward trend.
✅ Potential upside windows:
1. Short term: Tech giants undergo another significant pullback, risk-off sentiment heats up, leading to a pulse rebound (1-4 weeks)
2. Q4: Q3 earnings and guidance exceed expectations, or the market experiences long-term volatility, prompting institutions to allocate to defensive assets
📌 Key point: The sustainability of the rise driven purely by risk aversion is limited. To initiate a new trend, earnings fundamentals need to exceed expectations as support. Once market risk appetite recovers and funds flow back into tech stocks, KO will likely enter a sideways consolidation to digest valuation. Blockstream evaluates three Bitcoin lattice signature schemes: Hawk was withdrawn, Dilithium is too large to fit into Bitcoin, Falcon-1024 is the most balanced overall.
Key signal: "If a choice must be made" — core developers remain extremely cautious about hard fork upgrades.
Two paths emerge: StarkWare's "second-layer insurance" (leaving the base layer unchanged) vs Blockstream's "base layer upgrade plan." They are complementary and not conflicting. Global Market Brief｜Aug. 27
Overnight main theme: Inflation remains hot, suppressing rate cut expectations, but Nvidia's earnings continue to support AI trading.
US stocks basically flat. US July PCE year-on-year at 3.7%, slightly above expectations, US Treasury yields and the dollar both strengthened, gold retreated to around $4600.
Nvidia Q2 revenue $96.22 billion, next quarter guidance about $108 billion, after-hours rose about 4% at one point, indicating AI demand remains strong for now.
BTC relatively resilient, crude oil continues to fall, WTI around $82. Lower oil prices help ease inflation pressure, but the market is currently more focused on whether Treasury yields can continue to rise.
Today focus on US initial jobless claims, followed by Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speeches.
My judgment: The market is currently trading "strong growth vs high inflation." If yields continue to rise, tech stocks, gold, and BTC will all face greater pressure. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
$NVDA Nvidia's earnings report is out.
96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year. Data center revenue 89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. Q3 guidance 108 billion, market expectation 105.1 billion.
All data exceeded expectations. No flaws to point out.
After hours, it first dropped 4%, then reversed to rise, now up about 4%.
When the earnings first came out, the market's initial reaction was "Oh, another beat"—then it sold off. Not because the earnings were bad, but because the market is numb. For the past four quarters, Nvidia's stock has dropped after every earnings report. The market has gotten used to "Nvidia always beats expectations," so an "outperforming" earnings report no longer excites the market.
What really turned the after-hours trading positive was the statement on the call: fiscal year 2028 revenue growth of about 70%.
For AXTI, the logic hasn't changed.
Nvidia's 96.2 billion revenue and 89 billion data center revenue show AI hardware demand is still growing rapidly. AXTI, as an upstream optical interconnect supplier in Nvidia's supply chain, still has fundamental support. Orders on hand exceed 100 million USD, production scheduled through 2027, none of this has changed.
I entered AXTI grid at 78, it peaked at 97 without selling, now the grid is paused at the pullback, with unrealized losses still present. Nvidia's earnings didn't make AXTI take off immediately, but it also didn't cause the semiconductor equipment chain to collapse.
Nvidia delivered a strong report, the market didn't crash, and fundamentals didn't collapse. The recovery of $AXTI is just a matter of time.✅ Chip Design IC-Design "Clear Internal Differentiation"
Representative stock: NVDA Nvidia
Design sector shows uneven performance: AI computing chip manufacturers led by Nvidia directly benefit from global AI infrastructure investment, with high growth in results; traditional consumer chips are constrained by weak end-user demand, resulting in a sluggish market. Many design companies without barriers lack stable orders, making their valuation more susceptible to large fluctuations driven by thematic sentiment, with long-term certainty weaker than equipment and leading high-end memory companies.
📌 Market Outlook: The relative strength rotation among the three major sectors will continue to be driven by three core variables: equipment capital expenditure rhythm, memory price cycles, and the actual progress of AI order fulfillment. Sector rotation will run through this semiconductor market cycle.📊 Breakdown of the US Semiconductor Sector｜Three Major Sub-sectors' Revenue and Risk Divergence Amid the AI Capital Expenditure Wave
✅ Semiconductor Equipment (Shovel Seller Logic)
Representative Stocks: KLAC KLA, AMAT Applied Materials, LRCX Lam Research
Wafer fabs continue purchasing equipment to match HBM high-end memory capacity expansion and advanced packaging upgrades. As upstream tool suppliers, their performance is less affected by downstream chip cycles, with stronger order stability. The expansion of the wafer manufacturing equipment market brings long-term benefits.
Risk: After the storage cycle peaks, original manufacturers reduce capital expenditures, leading to weaker equipment orders.
✅ Memory Chips (Highly Cyclical Product)
Representative Stocks: MU Micron, SKHYSK SK Hynix
AI servers significantly increase HBM capacity per GPU, initiating a cycle of rising storage volume and price. Storage's share in cloud providers' AI capital expenditure continues to rise, bringing strong profit elasticity.
Downside: The industry is highly cyclical; new capacity releases later will suppress profits, and prices fluctuate sharply.
✅ Chip Design (Internal Differentiation, Stronger Thematic Attributes)
Representative Stock: NVDA Nvidia (Leader in AI Computing Design)
There is huge internal disparity within the design sector: AI computing chips led by Nvidia directly benefit from global AI infrastructure investment, showing impressive revenue growth; meanwhile, consumer chip design is constrained by weak end-user demand. Most fabless companies without barriers lack stable order support, making valuations more prone to sharp fluctuations driven by thematic sentiment, with weaker long-term certainty compared to equipment and high-end memory leaders. $SUI has been making dip buyers increasingly uncomfortable, but instead of trying to guess the exact bottom, it may be more useful to look at who holds the cost advantage. Based on publicly discussed primary-market financing data, early institutional investors reportedly entered SUI at extremely low prices — around $0.18 in Series A and roughly $0.25 in Series B. With SUI trading around $0.70, those early investors still have a substantial unrealized profit cushion. That matters because whenever今晚的盘面，像一场精心排练过的折子戏。 你有没有觉得，最近几天的行情，其实是同一个剧本在反复上演？ 我之前一直在盯合约清算数据，坦白讲，像 $CORE 这种全天清算量才 1.4 万美元的品种，多空换手四回，最后双方都只是挠了个痒痒。这种级别的池子，已经不能叫市场，更像一潭倒映着情绪的浅水洼。它的意义不在于方向，而在于对比——当小众币连被清算的资格都快没了，资金到底去了哪儿？ 答案显而易见。 主线其实非常清晰，今天全球市场就卡在两个关键变量上：美国的通胀黏性，和 AI 算力的赚钱效应。 先看美国那边。7 月核心 PCE 同比继续卡在 3.3%，没降，而个人消费支出环比几乎原地踏步。这组数据放在一起，传递的信号很微妙——通胀没走，但消费者已经累了。这种"滞胀感"让美联储很拧巴，市场对 9 月加息的押注甚至悄悄回到了四成。更关键的是，新任美联储主席沃什要在杰克逊霍尔发表首秀。他到底是延续"通胀猛于虎"的鹰派叙事，还是给市场一颗定心丸，这直接决定未来一个月的风险偏好底色。 再看比特币。BTC 这几天从 7 万下方冲到 8.1 万，单周涨了 20%。但你要看清楚，这波上涨的引擎是"空头回补"，不$BTC IS UP 23% THIS WEEK
BUT THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A LEVERAGE CASINO PUMP 👇
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED:
THE SQUEEZE
Shorts got obliterated.
$1.37B liquidated on the 19th
$739M liquidated on the 21st
Cautious sentiment = fuel for a violent move up
THE DIFFERENCE THIS TIME
After the squeeze, we DIDN'T see degenerate leverage come back.
Perp OI: Dropped to 284,000 BTC
Funding Rate: Back to neutral
Translation: This rally wasn't just contracts pushing each other up.
#PCEToJacksonHole $BTC $ETH $XRP📈A-share Market｜Precious-metal sector shows repeated intraday strength, gold concept attracts concentrated capital competition
On August 27, the gold sector experienced multiple abnormal rises, with profit-making effects spreading within the sector.
Market trigger catalyst: International spot-gold rose over 0.7% intraday, spot silver surged about 2%, and commodity price increases boosted risk-on sentiment in the A-share gold sector.
Macro underlying logic: U.S. long-term Treasury yields fluctuate at high levels, the U.S. dollar index weakens, combined with global risk-hedging demand, the hedge attribute of gold gains capital attention.
⚠️Market detail reminder: During this round of sector rise, short-term thematic speculation is strong; some stocks show limited profit elasticity from gold price increases to earnings, with the market driven more by market sentiment.
Precious metals belong to a high-cyclical sector, with price trends influenced by multiple variables including international gold prices, exchange rates, and U.S. dollar liquidity. Short-term trading speculation is very strong; pay attention to position management, as chasing highs carries significant risk. $SNDK surged more than 3 points again after hours because $NVDA released its earnings report. It’s following Nvidia, nothing else.
This company is really not the same as the old USB flash drive maker anymore. Data center revenue has increased more than tenfold, gross margin has reached over 84%, and it has signed long-term contracts with cloud providers locking in nearly $100 billion. Two-thirds of its capacity through 2028 has guaranteed minimum prices. Institutions have a low target of 2200 and some are calling for 3000.
But honestly, the recent trend is driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. The contract market is too crowded, with open interest at 1.7 billion, the highest in the market. Long positions with 75x leverage are clustered, so a 1% price shake can trigger liquidations. The chain liquidation event at the end of July is still fresh in memory.
I still hold my position but dare not add more. The after-hours looks strong, but how it moves during the day depends on the US stock market open. If Nvidia reverses its recent downtrend, SanDisk will likely follow Nvidia with a small upward rally. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $BTC IS UP 23% THIS WEEK BUT THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A LEVERAGE CASINO PUMP 👇 WHAT REALLY HAPPENED: THE SQUEEZE Shorts got obliterated. $1.37B liquidated on the 19th $739M liquidated on the 21st Cautious sentiment = fuel for a violent move up THE DIFFERENCE THIS TIME After the squeeze, we DIDN'T see degenerate leverage come back. Perp OI: Dropped to 284,000 BTC Funding Rate: Back to neutral Translation: This rally wasn't just contracts pushing each other up. THE REAL MONEY Spot + Perp volume: +1$CL $BZ The crude oil bulls are playing with fire! Bears are sharpening their knives above 88, who will take the last baton?
When the war gunfire sounds, retail investors rush in, but the whales are counting chips.
Simply put, Russia is about to escalate against Ukraine, and oil prices got scared down to 88. But don’t get carried away—88 is a strong ceiling, RSI momentum is already fading, chasing longs now is like being a live lightning rod.
Even scarier, the long whale positions in BZ crude oil are as high as 413%, but their average cost is 87.62, so they’re basically not making money. If the oil price trembles even a bit, these leveraged longs will stampede to escape, racing to see who can run fastest. On the CL side, there are big players chasing longs with 20x leverage, and new addresses are pouring in 5 million—history repeatedly proves this kind of “extreme greed” is often a top signal.
My blunt truth: The geopolitical price surge has already been played once; if 88 doesn’t break, expect a pullback.
Trading strategy: BZ conservative traders enter longs near 84, shorts near 89; aggressive traders enter shorts now.
CL conservative traders enter longs near 81, shorts near 83; aggressive traders enter shorts now.
Remember, on the eve of a big battle, chasing highs is the original sin, lying low and waiting is the king’s move. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Once Nvidia's earnings report came out, I immediately exclaimed that the classic script of "good news turning into bad news upon realization" has played out again.
Revenue doubled to 96.2 billion, data center revenue surged 117% to 89 billion, and Jensen Huang declared AI has reached an inflection point. Next quarter's guidance is 108 billion, exceeding market expectations. But after-hours trading still dipped slightly, following the same pattern as SKHYNIX and SNDK — explosive earnings are standard, the 12% rise this year has priced in too much, and it's normal for funds to sell on good news.
The market is now focused on the substance: can the 75% gross margin hold? Will storage price hikes squeeze profits? And that 500 billion computing power financing platform with Wall Street, using chips as collateral for loans — Morgan Stanley said "the logic makes sense but the risks are hard to quantify," sounds wild but the waters are deep.
Turning back to BTC and crypto markets, Nvidia's NVDA earnings report is a reassurance for AI hardware, upstream demand remains intact. But if AI stocks plateau or pull back from highs, the overflow money could indeed flow into crypto. BTC is still hovering around 80,000, macro and options catalysts haven't materialized, altcoins and Meme coins rotate quickly, funds are looking for an outlet but no consensus yet. Let's watch first, wait for confirmation of AI stock fund overflow before following, don't rush in early. #EarningsObserver #NVDA #BTC #AI $ETH $BTC This surge in BICO is really baffling. Is it going back to its peak? Keep in mind its all-time high was $8, and now it’s not even close to a fraction of that. This looks more like a "dead coin revival" hype rather than a fundamental turnaround.
The sudden rise without any warning—is it going to break new highs again? Honestly, BICO is fully circulating now, with no large unlocking pressure. The top 100 wallets control the vast majority of the supply—so a pump only needs a few big holders working together, and a dump just requires them to click a mouse. Once the bulls take profits, the price will plummet like free fall—previously it crashed 41% from the high in a single day, leaving those chasing the top stranded.
This time, the shorts are on the brink of liquidation risk. Funding rates remain deeply negative, down to -0.2658%, meaning shorts pay daily to hold positions, betting on a price drop, but the price doesn’t fall and instead rises—the shorts are losing more and more but holding on. Futures volume exceeds $1.1 billion, 10 times the spot volume, and the highly leveraged shorts could be wiped out at any moment.
There is no support, only extreme wicks. All moving averages are pressing from above, with price below EMA5≈0.0224, EMA10≈0.0222, and EMA20≈0.0244, indicating a weak trend. 0.0174 is the last line of defense; breaking it would target the previous low at 0.0112.
This market is not for the faint-hearted. Shorts are watching 0.0174—if it breaks, they add more; bulls watch 0.022—if it can’t hold, it’s just a weak rebound. Get the direction right and you feast; get it wrong and you get liquidated instantly. $KO 🥤KO｜A textbook-level defensive staple target
Beverage demand is strongly sticky, with minimal impact from technological iteration and innovation. Coca-Cola relies on its deeply ingrained brand moat, stable and robust free cash flow, and decades-long continuous dividend shareholder-return record, making it a preferred safe-haven choice for capital in volatile markets.
Comparing year-to-date (YTD) returns as of 8/23, KO has risen +31.0% this year, significantly outperforming most M7 tech giants.
Behind this market trend is a typical sector-rotation: as volatility rises and valuation competition intensifies among high-growth AI stocks, capital begins to flee the high-volatility growth track and reallocates to consumer defensive assets with more certain cash flow, hedging portfolio volatility.
⚠️Additional reminder: Defensive stocks do not mean they will always rise. In a bull market environment with broadly improved risk appetite, consumer sectors often underperform the tech growth mainline. There is no absolute superiority in style; it depends on the current macro liquidity and market sentiment cycle. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ The semis are telling two very different stories heading into $NVDA earnings. 👀
Memory is quietly repairing: $SNDK +1%, $MU +1%, $WDC +3%.
Meanwhile, $NVDA is down 1% and $AVGO is down 2%.
That’s the key signal.
The morning PCE print kept rates tight, but we’re not seeing another storage-led unwind. Instead, the market looks like it’s separating the NAND scare from the bigger question.
#DailyOrbit Gold quietly rose again before Powell's speech; don't just see it as a safe haven. The real main theme behind this is the dollar depreciation trade—the U.S. Treasury expanded the repurchase scale of long-term bonds, directly triggering concerns about depreciation, causing gold prices to rise more than 5% last week. This theme actually spans both gold and $BTC: in the long run, both serve as hedges against the purchasing power erosion of fiat currency. But there's a distinction to clarify—short-term Bitcoin daily charts are extremely overbought and stuck just below previous highs, repeatedly grinding, whereas gold is a purer, less leveraged expression of depreciation. So you'll see that I prefer holding spot and hard assets rather than chasing long BTC contracts at this kind of level. Depreciation is a slow variable; there's no need to go all in to chase one or two days of gains. Talking about the next round of altcoin definite hotspots, I'll also review the current main tracks.
In the RWA direction, ONDO still stands out, with track expansion and institutional narratives giving it an edge in both recognition and fundamentals. The core of DeFi remains UNI; MORPHO is more flexible but less certain than UNI and AAVE, so position allocation needs careful consideration. Regarding retail sentiment, in big market moves DOGE is still the easiest to form a nationwide consensus, as Musk can ignite it with just a shout; PEPE is dragging, and some think PENGU is a better watch.
As for dark horses, Algorand has long been overlooked with a low position, but rotation could exceed expectations; TON is like ZEC in its early days—high in buzz but very emotional in price action, with extreme rallies and pullbacks.
Looking at the top 100 list by 90-day performance, LIT and PUMP have surged wildly, with SPX, ENA, AAVE, UNI, and HYPE also near the top. Indeed, different altcoin tracks are gradually reestablishing main lines, and capital is searching for footholds.
But let's be realistic: BTC is still struggling around 80,000, with options expiry and macro factors unresolved. Chasing altcoin hotspots now risks being shaken out. Capital rotation needs BTC to stabilize and ETH to confirm risk appetite; only then will mainstream altcoins take over as a true signal. Single-coin pulses hitting highs have low reference value; collective volume increase across multiple coins is the real inflow. Don't let FOMO push you into all-in altcoin bets; defend and wait for clear direction before scaling in at low multiples—don't catch the last baton.#BTC surge and pullback, options expiration amplifies the key level battle
The earlier surge was because K33 provided data indicating that this rally included the largest single-day short squeeze on record. Simply put, shorts were flushed out in one wave, and futures open interest dropped significantly. Much of the previous price increase was driven by short covering rather than natural buying demand.
On the other hand, ETFs have indeed seen continuous inflows, with a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, showing incremental capital entering the market. After the price was pushed up, more holders wanted to exit. The sell and buy orders clashed head-on around the 80,000 level.
The real test comes tomorrow. On August 28, about $6.44 billion worth of BTC options will expire, with most positions concentrated between 75,000 and 80,000. Both bulls and bears have incentives to push the price in their favor at this key level, so volatility will significantly increase near expiration.
What happens next depends on two key factors. The short squeeze effect is already weakening, and the gains driven by short covering have mostly been absorbed. Next, it depends on whether ETF and spot buying can continue to absorb the selling pressure at high levels.
The direction of the options battle is also crucial. If the price holds around 80,000, many put options will expire worthless, forcing buyers and market makers to buy to hedge, which could create upward momentum. If it breaks below 80,000 and puts start to be exercised, market makers may be forced to sell, which would push the price down.
Overall, be patient at this juncture. Wait for the direction to become clear before making a move; don’t rush.
$BTC $ETH