Orbit Post Sitemap
$BTC UNDER PRESSURE NEAR $79K — LIQUIDITY MATTERS
$BTC faces selling pressure near $79K after failing to hold $80K, reflecting profit-taking rather than a confirmed reversal. The bigger story remains liquidity: easing yields, a softer dollar and resilient ETF demand could support risk assets if financial conditions improve.
$ETH is holding near $2.4K–$2.5K, showing relative strength despite the pullback. Traders should watch liquidity, ETF flows and macro data before assuming the next major move#财报观察员：NVIDIA Exceeds Expectations, Software Revenue Begins to Materialize
NVIDIA's earnings report is rock solid.
So the question is, with data this good, why did the stock still fall after hours?
When the earnings were released, the stock dropped 1.3% to 2.7% in after-hours trading. It's not that the performance was bad; the market's expectations were just ridiculously high. After nine consecutive quarters of beating expectations, this 106% growth rate is actually the slowest recently. The market doesn't want "good," it wants "perfect."
But what’s truly worth noting is another change—AI is starting to make money, and it's on the software side.
For the crypto community, there are two signals.
First, capital expenditure on AI infrastructure is still climbing. NVIDIA itself says the market space is 3 to 4 trillion, AWS added 2 million GPUs, and backlog orders exceed 2 trillion. Computing power costs have no room to decrease in the short term; miners and AI projects will have to continue bearing hardware costs. But this also means the demand side's foundation is extremely solid.
Second, the market is starting to nitpick. Even NVIDIA at this level of exceeding expectations can't push the stock higher, indicating that tolerance for storytelling is decreasing and there is a growing demand for real profit realization. For the crypto AI track and DePIN projects, pure hype will become increasingly difficult to sustain; only those with real business support will remain.
NVIDIA's earnings report has no direct short-term impact on the market, but its direction is very clear—AI infrastructure is still sprinting ahead, computing power costs won't drop soon, but the certainty of the track is getting stronger and stronger.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Grayscale's application for a ZEC ETF: the core conflict over approval lies in improving external conditions versus the inherent clash between privacy and regulatory transparency.
✅ Reasons for approval: The SEC has concluded its investigation of the Zcash Foundation; there are precedents of Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs being approved; the CLARITY Act provides a clearer regulatory framework; the use of a cash redemption structure reduces compliance risks; institutional funds provide backing (DCG plans to inject about 200,000 ZEC).
❌ Reasons for rejection: Zcash’s shielded transactions can hide sender, amount, and other information, directly conflicting with the audit transparency required by ETFs; the 2.5% management fee is more than 10 times that of Bitcoin ETFs; DCG’s holdings are highly concentrated (about 44%), raising concerns over conflicts of interest; historical trust premium and discount volatility has been severe, reaching ±55%.
Summary: External conditions are improving, but the “inherent flaw” of privacy coin ETFs remains unchanged. Whether the SEC approves depends on whether it is willing to set this precedent for “privacy.” BTC rose 23% this week. Previously, the market was suppressed by cautious sentiment, with short positions piling up more and more. As a result, two large-scale liquidations directly shattered expectations: $1.37 billion was liquidated on the 19th, and another $739 million on the 21st. Notably, after squeezing out high leverage, the market did not immediately enter a crazier leverage-adding phase. Perpetual open interest fell back to 284,000 BTC, and the funding rate returned to neutral, indicating this rally was not purely driven by contracts propping each other up.
Spot and perpetual trading volume expanded by 188% over the week, CME grew by 152%, and net inflows of 31,740 BTC came from ETFs and other products, showing institutional funds have at least started to re-enter and observe. Coupled with expectations around US long bond operations, the market brought liquidity stories back into play, naturally making BTC the most sensitive direction. However, a strong rebound does not mean the trend has reversed. If volume quickly shrinks, ETFs turn to outflows, or there is insufficient support during pullbacks, sentiment can flip rapidly. The biggest mistake at such times is to treat a week's breakout as a risk-free reason to chase the rally.
I prefer to see this as a market structure repair: shorts were flushed out, capital warmed up, and risk appetite rose. Going forward, don’t just focus on daily price changes; pay attention to volume, funding rates, and spot buying after pullbacks. Only if the market can withstand corrections can the trend be considered truly stable for $BTC
(This is personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 The LIT position was taken long by two people together, indicating it wasn't a random guess, but don't mistake a large position for a high win rate; the crypto world loves to punish that kind of confidence.
Key data here: Coin LIT, direction long, 5x leverage, entry price 3.37, position size $77,117, largest position $47,085, another $30,032.
5x leverage doesn't seem outrageous, but in practice it can still teach you a lesson, especially with split entries like this. On the surface, it looks like controlling the pace, but in reality, it might be due to uncoordinated emotions, buying more as it falls, and getting more anxious the more you add.
If you really want to be bullish, first figure out whether you're profiting from the correct directional move or just gambling on short-term volatility. The former relies on logic, the latter on luck, and luck is the least valuable thing.
A veteran trader's advice: don't treat position size as faith. If the direction is wrong and you stubbornly hold on, you won't just break even—you'll get crushed by the market.
Cut losses when you should, preserve your capital, and don't wait for forced liquidation to make decisions for you. $ENA has been doing pretty well these past couple of days, with a nearly 58.09% increase over the past week, currently priced at $0.14+
But the sharper the rise, the more you need to watch the moves of the big holders.
The venture capital firm Hack VC's linked address, that tricky guy, is suspected of offloading $3 million worth of $ENA through Wintermute.
4 hours ago, address 0x2a5…590CF transferred 21.85 million ENA into Wintermute's deposit address through multiple hops.
As ENA just started to rise, the chips are already moving to the market maker's address. Whether this is selling or just portfolio reshuffling is a bit hard to guess 😁🚀 Earnings report explodes! Nvidia's revenue doubles, and AI revenue on the software side finally starts to "cash in"! Nvidia's Q2 revenue doubled year-over-year (+106% to $96.2 billion), with data center revenue soaring to $89 billion (+117%), completely smashing market expectations! Even more explosive: the company rarely provides a clear guidance of about 70% revenue growth for FY2028 — and this is a "conservative figure after supply constraints," with actual demand potentially doubling! The only bottleneck is production capacity. But what’s truly exciting is that AI returns are starting to extend from compute hardware officially to the software side: • Salesforce AI-related product ARR is approaching $4 billion (Agentforce + Data 360 nearly $390 million, up over 210% year-over-year) • CrowdStrike and other AI security software's new recurring revenue continues to explode. With compute investment pouring in, the software side is finally bearing fruit! This is not just a simple "beat expectations," but the AI commercialization loop is forming: Hardware racing → Software landing → Real ARR realization. The next-generation Vera Rubin is in full mass production, with enterprise, sovereign, and industrial clients all flourishing. AI is officially moving from "storytelling" to "monetization." Related stocks are already stirring: xNVDA, xCRWD, xCRM... Do you think this is truly the first year of software monetization, or just another case of overhyped expectations? Share your thoughts in the comments below 👇 #EarningsObserver #NvidiaBeatExpectations #SoftwareRevenueCashingIn #AIClosedLoop #NVDAThis morning, I saw $ONT directly topping the gainers list, surging nearly 30% in one day, currently priced around 0.068.
In simple terms, it's an old coin suddenly spiking. A couple of days ago, the mainnet upgraded to EVM, improving compatibility a bit, then OKX launched contracts for it, leverage traders flooded in, and the spot price took off. The privacy identity narrative also heated up, and funds poured into these low market cap old projects.
But honestly, this kind of rise is all driven by news and leverage; volume has increased, but there's nothing new fundamentally. After the surge, it's easy to retrace, so brothers chasing highs be careful about catching the falling knife. If playing short-term, just ride the sentiment, don't go all in.NVIDIA's earnings report once again exceeded expectations. My core conclusion remains: the demand for AI computing power shows no signs of peaking for now, but the market will increasingly focus on the quality of growth.
Specifically, on the financial side, Q2 revenue was $96.22 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 18%; data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, already accounting for more than 90% of total revenue.
On the product side, there is also no shortage: Blackwell is still shipping at high speed, and the new generation Vera Rubin has already entered the volume ramp-up stage.
At the same time, management even expects FY2028 revenue to grow by about 70%, significantly higher than the previous market expectation of about 44%.
However, the earnings report is not without concerns: the current gross margin is about 75%, with Q3 guidance down to about 74%, and management expects Q4 may further decline to 71%–72%, mainly due to rising costs of memory and other components.
In summary, this earnings report shows: demand remains ridiculously strong, Rubin's succession is very smooth, and there is no obvious short-term inflection point in fundamentals; but $NVDA's next core challenge is gradually shifting from "whether GPUs can be sold" to "whether such massive AI CapEx can ultimately generate enough revenue and cash flow."
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
@OKX星球 $BTC is about to break above 80,000 again.
The bears are confused.
The weekly chart rose 22%, directly reclaiming the previous high.
Three solid reasons:
· ETF: Net inflow exceeded $2.2 billion in a single week, institutions haven't stopped.
· Macro: PCE is flat, Wash's speech is steady, rate hike expectations are cooling down.
· On-chain: Long-term holding addresses continue to increase, selling pressure is slowing.
From a technical perspective, 78,000 has become the new support.
Holding above 80,000, the next target is 85,000.
A pullback is a buying opportunity.
Smart money is already positioning.
Don't wait until BTC hits 85,000 to ask if you can still chase.Many crypto degenists still believe that cryptocurrencies will disrupt banks, Wall Street, and traditional power structures. But one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the traditional system has not been replaced by cryptocurrency; it is gradually entering, controlling, and reshaping the crypto market. And ironically—many people are still cheering for this process. Look at the funding structures of BTC, ETH, and SOL, and you'll see that the crypto market narrative has changed dramatically. --- 🟠 $BTC — not "anti-system," but systems buying Bitcoin in large quantities The original story was decentralization, resistance to censorship, and personal sovereignty. But today, the largest identifiable pools are increasingly concentrated: 🏦 ETF-listed 🏢 💼 companies, large custodians 🏛️, government wallets like BlackRock's IBIT, which currently hold over 700,000 BTC and have fund assets exceeding $60 billion. Meanwhile, recent strong inflows into US spot BTC ETFs have renewed, with institutional demand clearly rebounding. Strategy remains one of the largest enterprise-level BTC holders, with public data showing its holdings approaching 840,000 BTC. In other words: more and more BTC is entering traditional financial structures through ETFs, corporate treasuries, and large custody systems. This does not mean Bitcoin has failed. But it does meanToday's main theme in the crypto world is BTC repeatedly crashing against the $79K wall, with the entire market holding its breath waiting for tomorrow's Jackson Hole. 1. BTC surges and then pulls back into consolidation, $79K remains unbroken after a probable breakdown - currently around $78,757 (-0.1%), still up 20% since 8/17+ - After peaking at 81,255 on 8/24, it has fluctuated for the third consecutive day in the 77K-$79K range, with each pullback lows moving downward step by step, with upward momentum slowing - ETH is relatively strong (+1.6%); XRP rose 29% for the week but then took profits -2.6% 2. ETFs saw net inflows for 7 consecutive days, total assets of $99.05 billion approaching 100 billion - 8/26 single-day +314 million (BlackRock IBIT alone holds 284 million, accounting for 90%+); August cumulative $2.72 billion hits a new monthly high for the year - ETH ETF has seen positive inflows for 7 consecutive days (single-day +$180 million) - More importantly: **Gold + Bitcoin ETFs attracted a total of 7 billion ∗∗ over 5 days (GLD 3.4 billion + IBIT $1.5 billion), "depreciation trading" makes a comeback 3. PCE exceeded expectations of a rate cut, macro variables regain dominance - July PCE year-on-year rose +3.7%, higher than expected → USD strengthened → risk assets under pressure, which is the direct reason BTC failed to break above $80K - tomorrow ($BTC whale completely liquidated!
In the latest sell-off down to $77,800, a large number of “BTC whales” were completely wiped out.
Now, there is an incredible amount of buy orders placed by whales in the $74,500 - $78,000 range, which could be the next target.
Meanwhile, there are massive sell orders from whales in the $79,000 - $83,000 range above, indicating Bitcoin will continue downward.
$ETH is showing strong momentum again.
ETH has risen about 29% in the past 7 days, reaching the $2460 area, outperforming Bitcoin.
Now, all eyes are on the critical $2500 level.
If it can sustain a break above $2500, this momentum could turn into a stronger trending rally.
Meanwhile, BitMine has increased its holdings by 32,447 ETH, showing institutional demand remains strong. The direction of the crypto market may no longer be determined solely by ETFs, on-chain funds, or industry news. Inflation, the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy expectations are once again becoming core variables in the market. The latest data shows that US July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, core PCE was 3.3%, and inflation remains significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. After the data release, market concerns about further tightening policy in the future have intensified. Meanwhile, market attention has quickly shifted to the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting. 🔥 What truly needs attention is not just the content of the speeches, but how funds will reprice "future liquidity." 🟠 $BTC — $77K–$78K becomes a key defense zone BTC failed to hold steady after breaking through $80K and is currently entering a high-level consolidation phase. I'm more focused on new ranges: 📍 $76.5K–$77.5K: Key short-term support 📍; $79.5K–$80.5K: Main resistance above. As long as BTC can hold mid-to-high support, the current trend still looks more like profit-taking after a rally, rather than a complete trend reversal. Previously, BTC briefly stood above $77K and remained strong before the Jackson Hole, with the market waiting for new policy signals from the Federal Reserve. If macro sentiment improves, challenging $80K again is not impossible. But if Jackson HIn the early morning, the three major U.S. stock indexes dipped slightly as the market awaited two events: inflation data and Nvidia's earnings report.
The good news came first.
After hours, Nvidia delivered explosive results: revenue of $96.2 billion, more than doubling, with its stock price surging over 4% after hours, simultaneously boosting the storage and optical communication sectors—names like Seagate, Micron, and Coherent all turned green.
But even more noteworthy is Apple, which officially announced a September 10 event, unveiling its first foldable iPhone, with media calling it "the biggest design change in iPhone's 20-year history."
Putting these two events together presents an interesting logic.
Over the past two years, the AI narrative has been "selling shovels"—Nvidia has made a fortune, and storage and optical communication sectors have benefited, but now Barclays raises a real issue: AI data centers are expanding wildly, electricity costs are rising, water supply is tight, voters are starting to push back, midterm elections are approaching, and policy risks are accumulating.
In other words, the "infrastructure dividend" of AI may be peaking, or at least volatility will increase.
Apple's foldable screen represents another path—a transformation in application form, not just stronger computing power, but a change in interaction. No matter how fast the chip is, users can't feel it; but a foldable screen, held in the hand, is immediately recognizable as different.
Therefore, the focus may shift from "who is building AI" to "who is using AI to create new things." The computing power arms race won't stop, but the market will always prefer tangible, visible innovation.
September is going to be lively; the early morning good news may just be the prelude.
$NVDA Woke up to everyone thanking Nvidia, the Q2 earnings report is out, everyone stands up:
Revenue: 96.22 billion (expected 92.17 billion), +106% year-over-year
Adjusted EPS: $2.22 (expected $2.09), +120% year-over-year
Data Center: 89 billion (expected 85.86 billion), +117% year-over-year
Hyperscaler: 48.71 billion (expected 43.55 billion)
The most outrageous is the net profit margin, 62%. Nvidia keeps 62 cents net profit for every 1 dollar sold, even drug dealers are speechless...
This is a comprehensive earnings report that beats expectations across the board, you can't find any flaws, yet the stock price still fell 3% after the news.
Then the turning point.
Next year's revenue guidance, CFO Colette Kress clearly gave a year-over-year growth of +70%. The market generally expects only about 40%, she raised it significantly.
Jensen Huang added fuel to the fire, saying actual demand growth has already exceeded 70%, even close to 100%. The 70% guidance is based on current supply capacity.
He also concluded: AI development has reached an inflection point, no longer experimental technology, but productivity and revenue-generating. Now, computing power is money.
Computing power is money.
Computing power is money.
Computing power is money.
...
The 3% drop was rescued by their better-than-expected outlook, the stock price is now up 4%... an unprecedented first.
The problem going forward is simple, the market will focus closely on this better-than-expected outlook and ignore everything else.
$BTC This year, the 2400 level is firmly held without breaking down, not because the support is unbreakably strong, but because the whales simply don’t give the market a chance to break it: the proportion of liquidity staking locked up has surged to 42%, spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, and the floating circulating chips in the market are one-third less than last year.106.88 more $OKB, 20x. Entry logic is clear: 4-hour demand zone + volume confirmation. But the focus of this review is not on the entry, but on the "time dimension".
After holding for 6 hours, the price only reached 109, with a floating profit of about 60%, far below expectations. According to system rules, if there is no acceleration 4-6 hours after entry, it should be considered a "weak confirmation," and one should actively reduce the position instead of holding stubbornly. I did not follow this rule this time and waited 2 more hours before catching the subsequent surge.
Lesson: time stop-loss and price stop-loss are equally important. Next time when encountering a "correct entry but slow movement" situation, reduce half the position first to relieve psychological pressure, then gamble with the rest. The final doubling of floating profit in this trade involved some luck; luck should not be mistaken for skill. Current price is 112.47, and according to the rules, the position should have been reduced already. Subsequent trailing take profit is set at 115. $BTC $ETH Recent International Gold Price Trend Analysis (As of 2026-08-27)
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
In August, international gold experienced a strong rebound. London spot gold quickly rose from around $4100 to above $4600/oz, with a monthly increase of over 13%, a rare large monthly gain in recent years. Currently, it is fluctuating near the high level of $4630.
Key Drivers of the Rise
1. Changes in Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Weaker US employment and consumption data have significantly lowered the market's probability of further rate hikes, with speculation beginning on rate cuts in Q4. US Treasury real yields have fallen, reducing the cost of holding gold and benefiting gold prices. However, the latest PCE inflation data remains resilient, and there is still significant market disagreement on whether there will be a rate hike in September, causing volatility.
2. Concerns over the US Dollar and Treasury Fiscal Issues: The US is expanding long-term Treasury repurchases, raising market concerns about huge fiscal deficits. The US dollar index is under pressure, and funds are using gold to hedge against dollar credit risk.
3. Central Banks' Continued Gold Purchases: Many central banks are continuously increasing gold holdings to diversify foreign exchange reserves, providing medium- to long-term support.
4. Geopolitical Risk Premium: The volatile situation in the Middle East can trigger risk-averse buying at any time, amplifying short-term fluctuations.
Outlook
• Short term: After continuous gains, gold has accumulated substantial profit-taking positions, and high-level volatility will significantly increase. Key events to watch include the Jackson Hole Symposium, US CPI, and non-farm payroll data. If inflation rebounds and Treasury yields rise, gold prices may pull back; if the economy weakens further and rate cut expectations strengthen, gold could challenge the $4700–$5000 range.
• Medium term: Institutional baseline scenarios expect gold to likely maintain a wide range of $4000–$4600 with an upward shift in the center. If the Fed officially starts cutting rates combined with accelerated central bank gold purchases, gold could break above $5000; if inflation rebounds and geopolitical conflicts push oil prices higher, there is a risk of decline.
Risk Warning
Gold is highly volatile and strongly influenced by overseas data, geopolitics, and exchange rates. Avoid chasing highs. Physical gold is suited for long-term allocation; futures and leveraged gold carry high risks.
If you need, I can help compress this into a brief 200-word version. Many people are still using "ultrasound money" to explain this wave of $ETH, but I think the explanation is reversed.
Currently, the mainnet Gas is only 0.1 Gwei, the burn is very weak, and ETH is not really rising due to deflation.
On the other hand, 34% of ETH has already gone into staking, and BlackRock's ETHB with staking has reached a scale of $830 million.
Old buyers focus on the burn, new buyers focus on yield and circulating supply.
ETHB's current staking yield is only 1.84%, which by itself cannot support the market. What’s really interesting is that traditional capital finally has an entry point to hold ETH long-term and receive monthly distributions.
So I prefer to understand this wave as ETH changing buyers, not just a typical altcoin catch-up rally.
Keep holding long positions.
Having touched 2660, this batch of new buyers will make the next pullback shallower. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 PENGU Observation on August 27｜A Brand Can Go Far, but the Token May Not Benefit in Sync
PENGU is back in the market spotlight today. What truly deserves a closer look is not how lively the penguin image is, but the fact that brand expansion does not automatically translate into token value. The official Pudgy Penguins July review shows that plush toys have entered Target stores in the U.S., the first comic debuted at the San Diego Comic-Con, and the team is conducting regular live shopping streams on TikTok and Whatnot; these actions expand IP reach, retail channels, and story content. On the other hand, the official claim terms clearly state that PENGU is for entertainment purposes, with no promise of commercial value, and the related company holds a significant amount of tokens. In other words, toy sales, content exposure, and community enthusiasm can validate brand management but cannot alone prove that the token has cash flow, dividends, or redemption rights. Going forward, retail repurchase, game activity, community participation, and token supply changes should be observed separately, with particular attention to whether brand revenue has a clear, verifiable value return mechanism. A rise in popularity does not mean risks disappear; liquidity, concentration of holdings, and sentiment volatility remain boundaries. $PENGU #PENGU
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 NVIDIA delivers another explosive earnings report, but the AI market has truly entered the "return verification period"
If you only look at the numbers, this NVIDIA earnings report is almost flawless.
The latest quarter's revenue reached $96.2 billion, a 106% year-over-year increase; data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, with a gross margin still maintained at 75%. The next quarter's revenue guidance even reaches $108 billion. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
This indicates that at least at the infrastructure level, the AI investment cycle is far from over.
Even more astonishing, NVIDIA expects next fiscal year's revenue to still grow by about 70%. (Reuters)
But I believe the truly important aspect of this earnings report is no longer "whether NVIDIA can sell more GPUs."
The answer is obviously: yes.
The market is now starting to ask the second-level question:
Will the buyers of these GPUs ultimately make enough money?
The logic of AI trading over the past two years has been very simple:
Insufficient computing power → Cloud providers expand CapEx → NVIDIA sells GPUs → Data center revenue explodes → The market continues to give the entire AI industry chain higher valuations.
But as capital expenditure scales up, this logic chain must start to close the loop.
NVIDIA management expects that by 2026, the top five global hyperscale cloud providers' capital expenditures may approach $800 billion, and by 2027 may even reach $1.3 trillion. (MarketBeat)
At this scale, Wall Street will no longer only ask "how much is invested," but will start asking:
How much new revenue, profit, and cash flow have these investments actually created?
This is why I believe AI investment has entered a new phase.
Previously, the market was validating computing power demand;
Now it is starting to validate computing power returns.
If in the coming quarters Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google, and AI application companies can prove that AI investments truly bring productivity improvements and profit expansion, then the currently enormous CapEx may instead become the foundation for the next growth cycle.
But if capital expenditures continue to expand exponentially while AI commercial revenue lags behind, the market will sooner or later recalculate the valuation of the entire industry chain.
So the biggest insight from this earnings report for me is not "how much more NVIDIA can rise."
But rather:
NVIDIA has proven that AI infrastructure demand remains strong, and now it is up to the entire AI industry to prove—whether this computing power is really worth so much money.
The AI bull market is not over.
But from now on, the market may no longer only reward companies that "tell AI stories," but will increasingly reward those that can truly convert AI into revenue, profit, and free cash flow.
The truly scarce resource in the next phase is not GPUs, but the return on AI investment. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
The latest US data is out, and the market reaction is a bit subtle.
Core PCE in July rose 3.3% year-over-year, exactly the same as the previous value and expectations, with a month-over-month increase of 0.2%. The Q2 real GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 1.5%, unchanged. Core inflation did not surge further, but it is still quite far from the Fed's 2% target; economic growth has slowed but not to the extent of "an immediate pivot being necessary."
After the data release, market expectations for a September rate hike slightly increased. The focus now is no longer on "whether the data exceeded expectations," but on "whether this level of stickiness is enough for the Fed to continue tightening."
The real highlight is Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole this Friday. How he prioritizes inflation, employment, and growth, as well as his criteria for whether to raise rates or hold steady, will basically determine market sentiment in the coming days. If the speech remains ambiguous, the policy divergence for September will likely continue dragging on, causing fluctuations in the dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and $BTC.
In short, the current macro environment is "neither hot nor cold, direction unclear." Inflation is not falling fast enough, growth hasn't collapsed severely, leaving the Fed in a dilemma. Crypto is even more sensitive; with limited funds, any policy ripple easily amplifies volatility. ETH's rebound in this round is stronger than BTC's, but $2500 is becoming the real dividing line between bulls and bears
Compared to BTC, which is still fluctuating around $79,000, ETH's performance today is clearly stronger.
From the chart, ETH quickly rose from a low around $2431, reaching a high of $2514, and is currently holding near $2495, with a 24-hour increase close to 2%.
I think there is a very important change in this market:
ETH is starting to show relatively stronger capital support compared to BTC.
Technically, on the 15-minute level, it has retaken MA5, MA10, and MA20, with short- and mid-term moving averages beginning to converge upwards. After forming a low at $2413, ETH is no longer just moving sideways but gradually raising its lows.
But the real test is right ahead—between $2500 and $2515.
This range has seen continuous selling pressure and is close to the upper Bollinger Band. After just hitting $2514, it quickly pulled back, indicating that there is still selling above $2500.
So I won’t conclude that ETH has completed a breakout just because it rose 2% today.
I’m more focused on two conditions:
First, can the $2480–$2490 support hold on a pullback;
Second, can the next attack on $2515 break out with volume.
If both conditions are met, this rally could upgrade from an "oversold rebound" to a trend continuation, and we can watch for $2530 or even higher levels.
Conversely, if $2500 cannot hold and $2480 breaks, then today’s rally is likely just another bounce within the range.
But there is a fundamental signal worth noting.
US ETH spot ETFs have seen clear capital inflows recently: about $184 million net inflow on August 21, around $116 million on the 24th, and about $180 million again on the 25th. (farside.co.uk)
This means ETH’s recent strength is not solely driven by the futures market; there is indeed continuous spot capital support behind it.
The problem is that the macro environment has not fully cooperated yet.
The latest US PCE year-over-year reached 3.7%, higher than market expectations; the probability of a rate hike in September has risen back to about 40%, and the dollar has climbed to an 8-day high. (reuters.com) Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday may further change the market’s expectations for the interest rate path. (dailycoin.com)
So now ETH is in a very interesting situation:
Internal capital structure is strengthening, but external macro pressure still exists.
That’s why I think $2500 is very critical.
If ETH can truly hold $2500–$2515 under such a macro environment, it means the market is telling us through price that the risk appetite for ETH may have changed.
Instead of guessing how high ETH can go, it’s better to see if the market can prove this first.
$2500 is not a target but a test.
If it holds, the nature of the market may change; if it doesn’t, this remains just a rebound.
Do you think this time ETH can really turn $2500 into support? $ETH BTC rebounded to 79,000, but here I actually don't want to rush to chase
BTC quickly pulled back from around 77,554 and has now returned to 78,790 USD. Looking only at the 15-minute level, the price has already climbed back above MA5, MA10, and MA20, and the short-term structure is clearly more repaired than yesterday.
But what I think is most worth noting here is not the "1% rise," but that this rebound is entering a relatively critical verification zone.
From the chart, BTC first faces short-term selling pressure near 79,000 above, with greater structural resistance still around 80,000–80,400. Previously, BTC broke above 80,000 but failed to hold, indicating that there are still obvious trapped positions and profit-taking at this level.
In other words:
Support around 77,500 only proves there are buyers below; it does not mean 80,000 has become support again.
Moreover, the macro environment is not fully supportive of risk assets right now.
The latest US PCE data shows that overall PCE year-over-year rose to 3.7% in July, indicating inflation stickiness remains. The market has raised bets on further Fed rate hikes, and the US dollar index has risen to an 8-day high. (Reuters)
This creates an interesting contradiction for BTC:
On one side, macro liquidity expectations are tightening again;
On the other, spot funds are still continuously flowing in.
In recent days, US spot BTC ETF funds have clearly warmed up, with net inflows of about $338 million on August 24 and about $314 million on the 25th; even on the 26th, when funds cooled down significantly, there was no large-scale net outflow. (Farside Investors) Previously, BTC and ETH spot ETFs recorded the strongest weekly inflows since last October. (The Block)
So I am now more inclined to interpret this market as:
Short-term macro pressure is battling against mid-term spot buying.
Next, I will focus on two levels.
If BTC can break through 79,200–79,500 again with volume support, then 80,000 will be tested once more; only by truly holding above 80,400 can this rebound from 77,500 have a chance to evolve into a trend continuation.
But if it rallies near 79,000 and then falls back again, the first support to watch below is 78,300. If this level breaks, the low at 77,500 will very likely be tested again.
Therefore, I don't think this is a particularly comfortable position to chase longs.
77,500 is the bulls' defensive line, 80,000 is the bears' defensive line, and BTC is currently stuck right in the middle.
The truly valuable signal is not whether the price is at 78,000 or 79,000, but who breaks through the other's defense line first.
What do you think? Will the next test of 80,000 break through directly, or will it shake out again? $BTC I believe the expectation of a rate cut in September has decreased, which actually represents the last "golden dip" before the big surge of BTC and ETH. Don't be scared by the 3.3% PCE data; my bullish core logic on Crypto is that the real pain point for the Fed is when GDP growth slows to 1.5%. The article mentions "economic slowdown is not yet a sufficient condition for a policy shift," but this should be interpreted inversely. In other words: although inflation is still sticky, the economy is barely holding up, and the Fed dares not tighten further to crash the economy. Recall last month's nonfarm payroll data surprise, BTC immediately spiked $, showing the market's high sensitivity to "bad news is good news." So my current judgment is: if Wash's speech on Friday is hawkish, it will be the last shakeout by the main force. Once he hints "a bit of inflation is tolerable to preserve employment," or signals easing on rate hikes, liquidity expectations will instantly reverse. Especially Ethereum, as a high-beta asset, tends to rebound more strongly than BTC under liquidity easing expectations. My specific strategy is: do not chase highs now; place orders at support levels to catch the dip. For example, if BTC dips to a key support level (like near previous lows) after the speech, I will decisively build positions in batches. Even if there are short-term fluctuations, as long as the overall direction of rate cuts remains unchanged, every pullback now is a chance to buy on the dip. After all, the cost of shorting US dollar credit at this level is far greater than enduring short-term volatility. The global stock market decline, along with rising gold and virtual assets, is the best proof! #USCorePCEFlatMonthOnMonth #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Core PCE remained flat from last month; how will Waller's Jackson Hole speech set the tone?
Core PCE hasn't come down; the real question has shifted from "when will rates be cut" to "will rates be raised again?"
After the US July PCE data was released, I think the market needs to reassess a previously overly optimistic logic: inflation has not smoothly returned to 2%, but is proving to be stickier than expected.
July core PCE year-over-year stayed at 3.3%, month-over-month rose 0.2%; more notably, overall PCE year-over-year reached 3.7%, slightly above market expectations. (FXStreet)
The most troublesome aspect of this data is not "inflation suddenly out of control," but that it leaves the Federal Reserve without a reason to pivot dovish.
Previously, the market was waiting for inflation to continue falling, then gradually shift policy focus toward the economy and employment. But now, US Q2 GDP still maintains 1.5% annualized growth, personal income grew 0.4% in July, and the economy is not weak enough to force the Fed to ease immediately. (Reuters)
So the realistic choice facing Waller now is:
The economy can still hold up, but inflation remains above 3%, so why rush to cut rates?
The market has actually started repricing. After the PCE release, the policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield briefly rose to about 4.21%, and the dollar climbed to an eight-day high; the probability of a September rate hike has been repriced back up to about 40%. (Reuters)
Therefore, I believe what really matters next is not this PCE itself, but how Waller defines this data at Jackson Hole.
If he emphasizes "inflation is still too high and restrictive policy must be maintained," the market may further price in higher rates, putting pressure on high-valuation US equities, gold, and BTC due to liquidity repricing.
But if he believes current inflation is more due to energy and supply-side shocks and opts to continue observing, market concerns about a September hike may quickly cool down.
Macro trading now is no longer simply "rate cut or no rate cut."
The real watershed is: does the Fed believe core inflation above 3% is just a temporary pause, or the start of a new round of sticky inflation?
Waller's Jackson Hole speech this time is likely the key to the market's next directional choice.
What do you think is more likely next: to continue holding steady, or will the market ultimately have to accept "rate hikes" again?Recently, a rather sentimental saying has been circulating in overseas communities, roughly saying, "If you don't stock up now, will you only realize when prices rise to 3U?" This statement hits the softest spot in many hearts—fear of missing the big waves ahead, and worry that the current price will never return. But at such moments, it's even more important to separate sentiment from reality. Let's break this view down into two layers of logic. On the optimistic side, if the BTC-Fi track continues to heat up, with lstBTC, SatPay, Core Alpha, and decentralized stablecoin products launching and market narratives widely accepted, then in the long run, prices will indeed have room for imagination. 3U is a distant future worth dreaming of. But there are two realities here that must be acknowledged. First, 3U is just a target price level shouted by bloggers, not the inevitable end point for the project. Going from current price to $3 means a huge surge, which requires Bitcoin to be in a major bull market, achieve large-scale ecosystem deployment, continuously influx of new capital, and avoid overtaking competitors on curves—all conditions must be met. None of these factors are 100% certain. Conversely, there is also the possibility of projects falling short of expectations, cooling of the track, and prolonged price stagnation at low levels. Second, "If you don't buy now, you won't have opportunities later" is a typical FOMO rhetoric. There has never been a rule in the crypto market that "if you miss this train, you'll never get on board." Truly high-quality projects will signal a start when on-chain data and important launch announcements gradually materialize, and then it's still possible#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Important news at 10 PM tonight
Jackson Hole Wash speech pre-reminder + three scenario forecasts
Speech time: Beijing time August 28, 22:00
This year's conference theme: Financial innovation: the impact of payments and policies. For the first time in history, stablecoins and blockchain payments are included in the conference theme. Besides interest rates, crypto regulatory wording will also disturb coin prices.
⚠️Risk reminder: scenario simulation only, not investment advice
Current market status
1. Significant internal division in FOMC: July meeting 9 votes to maintain rates, 3 members voted directly for a 25bp hike, internal hawkish pressure is considerable.
2. Long-term US Treasury yields are high, 30-year yield approaching above 5.3%, bond market volatility intense.
3. CME interest rate futures: September rate hike probability currently 33%; if speech is hawkish, it will directly rise to 55-60%, BTC under obvious pressure.
4. Wash's personal style: dislikes giving clear forward guidance, most likely will not directly say "September rate hike/cut", focuses on wording keywords rather than conclusions
Three scenarios (compare directly after speech)
Scenario ①【Hawkish · Negative for BTC】⭐
Keywords: inflation risk still high, keep option for further hikes, tighten if inflation target not met
Market reaction: US Treasury yields rise, dollar index strengthens; BTC short-term pullback, altcoins fall more
Follow-up: September meeting rate hike expectations rise again, high leverage contract risks increase
Scenario ②【Neutral (most likely)】⭐⭐⭐
Keywords: acknowledge stubborn inflation but no clear hike signal; large portion on stablecoins, payment financial innovation, avoids interest rate path
Market: slight initial fluctuation, volatility focused on stablecoin-related sectors; BTC overall no big direction, market leaves suspense for 9.11 CPI data + 9.16 meeting.
This is the mainstream institutional expectation: mainly about financial innovation, vague stance on rates.
Scenario ③【Dovish · Positive for BTC】⭐⭐
Keywords: inflation has made progress, no need for further tightening, emphasize side effects of high rates
Market: US Treasury yields decline, dollar weakens, BTC rebounds upward.
Additional crypto highlights (unique this time)
Speech will discuss stablecoins, tokenized deposits:
If wording is inclusive: positive for crypto sector;
If emphasizing strong regulatory risks: will cause short-term sell-off.
After the speech, I will quickly output:
1) Core quotes extracted (only sentences impacting the market)
2) Judgment: hawkish/neutral/dovish
3) Brief conclusions on BTC, dollar, US Treasury
4) Next key data to watch (9.11 CPI) According to the IMF, in Q1/2026:
🇺🇸 USD: 57.13% of global foreign exchange reserves
🇨🇳 CNY: 1.99%
Therefore, China cannot "replace the USD" just by buying gold.
But let's think further:
If one day the CNY is widely used in international trade...
If China continues to accumulate gold...
If countries want to reduce the risk of dependence on the USD...
then gold could become the asset layer that builds trust for a new monetary system — without the CNY officially becoming a "gold-backed currency." #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
US Core PCE Holds Steady from Last Month, How Will Waller's Jackson Hole Speech Set the Tone?
US July Core PCE year-on-year remained at 3.3%, exactly the same as last month, neither continuing to decline nor rebounding further, an awkward data point stuck in the middle.
This data is neither a positive surprise nor a disaster. Inflation remains stuck in place, still far from the Fed's 2% target, proving inflation stickiness persists, making a quick rate cut basically a fantasy. The market is now fully betting on the upcoming Jackson Hole event, watching closely what Waller will say.
The current market is interesting: crypto and gold are still rallying based on previous optimistic expectations. Many have already priced in rate cuts early, thinking that if inflation stabilizes, they can go all in on the long side. But the reality is, PCE has not cooled down, giving the Fed enough reason to maintain high rates, and even not ruling out raising rate hike expectations again.
Waller's speech this time is the most important public statement before the September FOMC meeting; his tone will directly rewrite liquidity expectations for the next month or two.
If the speech is hawkish, emphasizing unresolved inflation and not ruling out another rate hike, the dollar and US Treasury yields will surge, and gold and BTC will face a correction, shaking the foundation of the current rally around the 80,000 level.
If the speech is evasive, avoiding a tough stance, the market will interpret it as dovish, allowing the current rally to continue.
But don't have too high hopes; Waller's style is naturally not to give clear guidance.The market structure is different from two weeks ago. Two weeks ago, the price was pushed up from 64,000 in a short squeeze, with shorts being liquidated creating buying pressure; the driving force came from "shorts exiting the market."
Now, the shorts that needed to be liquidated have already been cleared out, the passive buying driving the rise has disappeared, and the price is starting to find its own direction. Yesterday, 93 out of 100 major coins fell, the total market volume shrank from 171.5 billion to 114 billion, and one-third of participants have simply stopped playing. When prices rise, everything goes up; when prices fall, only BTC holds up. This is not how a bull market should look.
The biggest variable is tomorrow. On Friday, $6.4 billion worth of BTC options expire, with the maximum pain point at 78,000. Positions worth 6.4 billion need to be settled, and market makers need to adjust their hedging positions before expiration. The greater the gap between the spot price and the maximum pain point, the more directly the hedging capital flow will impact the market. If BTC is pushed toward the maximum pain point before Friday, the recent slow decline may just be making room for options settlement.
Additionally, tomorrow at Jackson Hole, there will be a speech by Waller, marking his first appearance at the global central bank annual meeting since taking office in May. The high interest rate expectations have suppressed risk assets for a whole year; this is his first chance to directly address the market's expectations for rate cuts.
BTC is currently around 78,600, down 4% in three days, while the fear and greed index remains at 71—the market is still greedy, but the price has already fallen first. Optimists think this is a "normal correction after a sharp rise," while pessimists believe this rally is over. The answer lies in tomorrow: how options move and what Waller says.The data puzzle points to one conclusion: the economy has "resilience," and inflation has "shackles."
1. Core PCE year-over-year at 3.3% (unchanged from previous): This is not "stagnation," it is "stickiness." Service inflation is like psoriasis, it won't go away. The market-expected "inflation cliff" did not appear.
2. Personal consumption expenditures month-over-month +0.8% (expected +0.5%): Americans are still spending, and spending more aggressively than expected.
3. Durable goods orders (excluding transportation) exceeded expectations: corporate capital expenditure willingness has not collapsed.
For risk assets, this is the most uncomfortable "asymmetric" pattern:
Not bad enough to require rate cuts (recession expectations disproved, September rate hike probability slightly increased);
Not good enough to break through (no new stories on the numerator side of earnings expectations, denominator side interest rate decline is blocked).
BTC/ETH: Lack of macro narrative catalysts. Liquidity premium has disappeared, the market returns to a stock game. In the current pattern, "consolidation" has a higher probability advantage than "breakthrough." Do not try to predict direction, but use volatility—look for opportunities during extreme panic, and watch for risks during FOMO.
$BTC $ETH Last night the data came out: July PCE year-over-year 3.7%, month-over-month 0.2%; core PCE year-over-year 3.3%, month-over-month 0.2%. I believe many beginners just starting to trade, like me, don’t really understand what these numbers represent, so after studying, I plan to write an article now to discuss my views on macro data reactions and their impact on the market.
There are many official US economic data points, but those that truly affect the US stock market, I divide into five levels. Today, let's first understand some of the most important data.
T0 level (the data we will learn today): CPI, core CPI, PCE, core PCE, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate.
What do these data represent?
CPI (Consumer Price Index): This is what we commonly call the consumer price index. It reflects the average change over time in the prices of a basket of goods and services purchased by consumers, which is the consumer-side inflation we usually talk about.
CPI includes food, energy, etc. Core CPI excludes food and energy. The market especially focuses on: core CPI year-over-year, month-over-month, as well as housing and service inflation.
What issues does it reflect?
I understand it as whether the price pressure in the US has actually eased. If CPI data is high, it means inflation is intensifying, people’s spending on consumption and services increases, which impacts the market by making the Fed reluctant to cut rates easily, keeping interest rates high, US Treasury yields high, the market more willing to hold Treasuries, stock valuations suppressed, especially obvious for BTC/Nasdaq/AI/high-valuation tech stocks, which is unfavorable for stock price increases.
Conversely, if CPI data is low, it indicates deflation, people’s spending on consumption and services decreases, which impacts the market by making the Fed likely to cut rates, causing interest rates to fall to low levels, US Treasury yields to drop, the market more willing to hold high-risk assets to seek profits, stock valuations may rise, especially obvious for BTC/Nasdaq/AI/high-valuation tech stocks, which is favorable for stock price increases.
Having talked about CPI, now let's talk about what core PCE/PCE is.
PCE is the price indicator of goods and services purchased by US residents. The BEA defines PCE as the value of goods and services purchased by or on behalf of US residents. Core PCE excludes food and energy prices.
What issues does it reflect?
It reflects whether the inflation that the Fed cares most about has truly returned near the target.
Therefore, for trading, the importance of core PCE is greater than ordinary economic data. Once it exceeds expectations, it means inflation stickiness rises, possibly reducing the Fed’s rate cut space, leading to higher US Treasury yields and lower stock valuations. The market performance reflects pressure on the Nasdaq. If it continuously exceeds expectations, the market may reprice the entire rate cut cycle, which is a relatively dangerous situation. Conversely, if it is below expectations, it usually means inflation is cooling, Fed rate cut expectations rise, US Treasury yields fall, Nasdaq and risk asset valuations rise. If the economy remains strong at the same time, inflation falls + economy does not collapse, this is the so-called "soft landing," one of the stock market’s favorite combinations, leading to an optimistic attitude toward future market development.
Next, let's talk about nonfarm payrolls (NFP).
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP): It is one of the core data points in the monthly US employment report.
We mainly focus on the following points:
1. Nonfarm payroll additions
2. Unemployment rate
3. Average hourly earnings
4. Labor force participation rate
5. Employment structure
The core issue it reflects is whether the US economy is still strong, and it also affects whether the Fed needs to keep interest rates high. So NFP actually affects economic growth + inflation + Fed policy, which is why it has very high weight.
If NFP exceeds expectations, for example: expected +150K, actual +250K.
On the surface, the economy looks good, but it may not be good news for US stocks. Because the market may interpret it as employment too strong → economy overheating → inflation pressure continues → Fed rate cuts delayed. The possible result is US Treasury yields rise, Nasdaq falls.
If NFP is below expectations, for example: expected +150K, actual +80K.
The first reaction is usually economic cooling, Fed rate cut probability rises, US Treasury yields fall, tech stock valuations rise. Logically, this is good for stock assets. But if 80K → 30K → negative growth, worsening continuously, the market will start to worry about recession.
Then the logic reverses: employment collapse → leads to corporate profit decline → stock market falls.
So the ideal situation is moderate employment cooling, not employment collapse, after all, extremes backfire.
Now let's talk about the unemployment rate, which is one of the core indicators to judge the health of the employment market.
It answers whether many people have jobs. If the unemployment rate is below expectations, for example expected 4.3%, actual 4.1%, it means the employment market is stronger than expected. In the short term, the dollar may rise, US Treasury yields rise, rate cut expectations fall, tech stocks face pressure and decline. If the unemployment rate is above expectations, for example expected 4.2%, actual 4.5%, it means the employment market is deteriorating. In the short term, rate cut expectations rise, US Treasury yields fall, tech stock valuations rise.
But everything has a limit. If deterioration continues and the unemployment rate rises very fast, the market may start to think the economy is in recession, then the logic becomes corporate profit expectations decline, and stocks fall accordingly.
That’s all for today’s sharing. These are my own insights. I hope they can help everyone. If you have different opinions or views, feel free to discuss in the comments!!#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 Nvidia $NVDA Q2 beat again. Revenue reached $96.2 billion, more than doubling year-over-year by 106%; data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, accounting for 90% of the total. Adjusted EPS was $2.22, while the market expected about $2.10. Gross margin was 75%. The Q3 guidance is around $108 billion ±2%, not including China data center compute revenue, whereas the market had only expected just over $104 billion.
What really moved the market wasn’t the quarterly numbers, but the CFO’s statement on the spot: revenue is expected to grow about 70% more by fiscal year 2028. Wall Street had only dared to forecast a bit over 40%. Jensen Huang’s original words were even more aggressive — demand is even greater, constrained by the supply chain. After-hours trading first dropped, then rallied, ending up more than 4% higher.
My view: this is not a “barely beating expectations” scenario; it’s solid proof that demand hasn’t peaked yet. Cloud providers are still buying, and enterprise growth is even stronger than hyperscale, indicating AI hasn’t stopped at just the training phase. Q3 will very likely officially cross the $100 billion single-quarter revenue mark.
I also have to be blunt. The gross margin guidance dropped to 74%, memory price increases have already started to bite; China revenue this time was directly counted as zero, which isn’t a fully priced-in negative but a lingering risk. The easiest mistake after beating expectations is to treat the 70% growth as a reason to chase recklessly right now.
Short-term sentiment will be supported by this earnings report, but mid-term it still depends on two things: whether Rubin ramps up smoothly and whether gross margin can hold. The numbers won, but the valuation battle has just begun. bitcoin isn’t replacing gold — it’s capturing gold’s “growth” side
$XAUT remains around $4,644,quietly fulfilling its role as a safe haven.But $BTC at $78.9K tells a different story: over the past 7 and 30 days,Bitcoin has risen noticeably faster
It’s not that gold is weakening.It’s simply that when liquidity risk-on sentiment return,BTC reacts more strongly.
Gold is like a safe.Bitcoin is like a growth engine built on the same“scarce asset” narrative
Greater upside — but also greater volatilityOn August 24, Strategy submitted its latest 8-K to the U.S. SEC, disclosing that it sold about $2 billion of MSTR common stock through the ATM program between August 17 and 23, but did not buy or sell Bitcoin that week. The Block completed an independent verification based on the documents on the same day. First, clarify the timing: the transaction covers the previous week, and August 24 is the disclosure date; "Raising cash" does not mean you have placed an order in the spot market. The direction of funds is more important than the headline. Of the approximately $2 billion net fundraising, $136.4 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares, $300 million to supplement existing USD Reserve, raising the balance to $5.1 billion; The remaining approximately $1.59 billion went into the newly established "USD Cash." Although the names are similar, their functions differ: USD Reserve is mainly used by company policy for preferred stock dividends and debt interest, while USD Cash is a more flexible general Bitcoin treasury liquidity that can be used for future purchases of BTC or other capital allocations. As of August 23, Strategy held 840,447 BTC, with no change in the weekly amount. Keeping more dollars on account could have three impacts. First, if BTC reaches a price and market conditions the company deems appropriate, the cash pool allows it to act without temporary financing. Second, the $5.1 billion dedicated reserve reduces the pressure on short-term selling of dividends and interest payments. Third, cash and repurchase tools increase capital management flexibility but do not automatically convert into equal BTI am the mid-term intelligence guy.
$SNDK presents both opportunities and risks on the table.
Let's start with the positives. When Nvidia $NVDA released its $108 billion revenue guidance, AI, memory, and storage all soared. SNDK and $MU Micron are beneficiaries of AI infrastructure. Sandisk itself is the preferred choice for AI data center NAND and enterprise-grade SSDs, supported by contracts and buybacks. Kioxia is investing ¥6.3 billion in Japan to build a NAND factory, with Sandisk as a joint development partner, receiving Japanese subsidies, and production starting after 2029. The long-term logic is solid. Derivatives activity on Hyperliquid is also heating up.
But don't get carried away. YMTC and Samsung's NAND supply issues are weighing on the industry, and investors are closely watching discipline and pricing risks for fiscal year 2027.
From a technical perspective, false breakouts are common, highs are lowering, volume is weak, and if resistance doesn't hold, a deep pullback is necessary. U.S. Treasury yields are rising, macro uncertainty persists, and AI and storage stocks are targets for selling. Short-term sentiment is still tied to Nvidia's earnings report and AI data center guidance.
I am optimistic mid-term, but timing is key—don't chase the highs.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $BTC $ETH $LAB
Bitcoin battles the 80,000 mark: What is the market waiting for?
Since August 17, Bitcoin has surged over 24% in a week, reaching a high of $81,272; Ethereum rose 29% to $2,463, with the market once showing "extreme greed." It then retreated to oscillate between $78,000 and $79,000.
Three drivers behind the surge: ① The U.S. Treasury expanded its Treasury repo operations, suppressing long-term bond yields and weakening the dollar, activating "devaluation trades"; ② Massive short positions were forced to cover, triggering a short squeeze stampede; ③ ETFs saw nearly $2 billion in net inflows in a single week, signaling substantial institutional participation.
Reasons for the pullback: Short-term gains were too large (Bitcoin up 26%), leading to concentrated profit-taking; technical indicators were overbought (RSI peaked); retail investors have not realized profits at new highs, and increased exchange inflows suggest selling pressure; the Fed minutes were hawkish, reigniting rate hike concerns.
Key points to watch going forward:
- $83,000 lifeline: Bitcoin's 365-day moving average is here; holding above this confirms the true start of a bull market cycle.
- Jackson Hole Symposium (August 27-29): The Fed Chair's speech may determine the short-term direction.
- Medium-term logic: Improved liquidity, accelerated institutional allocation, and clearer regulation continue to provide support.
- Risks: Some analysts warn of a pullback to $45,000-$48,000; the short squeeze rally is not genuine buying, so sustainability is questionable.
This round of gains is a confluence of policy, short squeeze, and ETFs, but the short squeeze will eventually end; the follow-up depends on spot market support. Regulation has shifted from "talking about it later" to "really taking action," and the market has first breathed a sigh of relief—but don't rush to count your money.
This week, the SEC submitted a new proposal to the White House to amend the investment advisor digital asset custody rules, officially entering the administrative review process. The original rules required investment advisors to hand over clients' crypto assets to qualified custodians. The proposed changes directly relate to three things: institutional custody costs, asset segregation standards, and the scope of qualified institutions that can participate in custody.
This is somewhat positive. Moving from regulatory ambiguity to clarity inherently reduces compliance uncertainty; if the amendments add more custody options or lower thresholds, the pace of institutional capital entering the market and the custody landscape will both ease up.
However, submission to the White House does not mean implementation—the review period may still bring changes, and the final stance and timeline must be followed. In the short term, there is no single token directly corresponding to this; narratively, it benefits custody and allocation of institutionally favored assets like BTC, ETH, and projects related to custody infrastructure.
Key points to watch: White House review results, SEC's final rule stance, and whether institutional custody funds accelerate inflows once compliance paths are clarified.
Source: The Block
#BTC #ETH #Crypto100W Bitcoin is now trading around $78,800, up about 0.6% in 24 hours, clearly pulling back from yesterday's low of $76,000. Ethereum is around $2,470, up about 1.4% in 24 hours. In the past 24 hours, net liquidations across the network totaled about $230 million, with Ethereum liquidations accounting for about $70 million, and long positions making up 74%, indicating that the leverage for chasing the high is still being cleared. The market has returned from $76,000 back to $78,800, and behind this recovery are the same few factors supporting the bottom. The US Treasury's expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases has led to a decline in Treasury yields, but the logic of Bitcoin being re-allocated as a scarce asset remains unchanged. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows close to $2 billion for five consecutive trading days, which is genuine institutional buying, not just short covering. On the regulatory side, expectations of Trump's push for the CLARITY Act have also eased institutional concerns about entering the market. On Monday, Bitcoin reached a high of $81,272, indicating the market is interested in surpassing $80,000. How to move this morning? The core focus is still on whether $80,000 can be pushed through. Last week, Bitcoin climbed from $64,000 all the way to nearly $80,000, up 25% in a week, with significant short-term profit-taking pressure. Currently, the technical side is fluctuating in the $77,000-$80,000 range. If volume can surpass $80,000, the upside potential may open further; But if it hits resistance again, it may pull back in the short term The full set of US PCE data was released in the evening, showing overall strength and slightly exceeding expectations.
Core inflation did not continue to decline, remaining stable, while personal consumption and durable goods orders all exceeded market expectations.
In simple terms: The US economy's resilience exceeded expectations, and the pace of inflation cooling has stalled.
This directly contradicts the market's earlier speculation of rapid rate cuts, pouring cold water on the easing market.
The market logic is now clear:
Gold is clearly negatively impacted by the data, basically ending the short-term unilateral rally. It is likely to remain under pressure and fluctuate, so blindly chasing highs is not advisable.
Looking at the crypto market with $BTC and $ETH, there is also no positive support.
The rate cut expectations have been postponed, the market lacks incremental easing momentum, and it is difficult for the market to experience a unilateral explosive trend. The coming period will still be a torturous market of repeated shakeouts and back-and-forth fluctuations. Patience is needed to wait for a breakthrough in a new direction.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 全球央行都在防通胀，但一个很有意思的现象是。全球央行一直在努力控制通胀，却很少真正解决债务问题，也就促成了今天的比特币、黄金、自然资源的重新定价周期 因为在今天的金融体系里，债务已经大到很难通过传统方式彻底清算。 如果用极高利率去真正消灭通胀，可能会同时击穿政府、企业和居民的债务承受能力，但如果长期维持宽松的货币环境，又必然面临货币购买力下降的问题。 所以最终可能形成一种现实，通胀不能失控，但债务也不能真正被清算。 而在这种长期环境下，有限供给、无法被随意增发的资产，就会进入一个非常值得关注的大周期。 黄金是几千年来的稀缺资产，比特币是数字时代的稀缺资产。 而土地、能源、铜、铀等有限自然资源，则是现实经济无法凭空创造的生产资料。 所以未来十年真正值得关注的，可能不只是某一个资产的牛熊，而是一次更大的资产重新定价： 从无限信用扩张的资产体系，向有限供给资产重新定价。 这也是为什么我长期看好比特币、黄金，以及部分真正稀缺的自然资源。 它们未必每天上涨，也一定会经历周期和泡沫On August 24, Ethereum researchers submitted a draft for the validator deposit contract, reserving an entry point for future adoption of quantum-resistant signatures. To be clear: this is still an early proposal that has not been merged or adopted by any network upgrade, and no testnet or mainnet launch date has been announced. It will not immediately give Ethereum quantum resistance. The current validator deposit format fixes the length of BLS public keys and signatures. The advantage of BLS is that it can aggregate signatures from many validators, reducing consensus overhead; the problem is that it relies on elliptic curve cryptography, which may be vulnerable to quantum computing attacks in the future. Even if researchers select a new signature algorithm tomorrow, the old contract cannot directly accept keys of different sizes. The new draft addresses this "fixed entry" problem. It allows deposits to carry variable-length public keys, signatures, and credential metadata, and uses a scheme number to indicate which cryptographic system is used. The existing BLS is labeled as scheme 0 and can still be used during the initial migration; if consensus is reached in the future, new BLS deposits can be permanently disabled. However, already running BLS validators will not automatically migrate because of this; the network still needs to design rules for replacing, exiting, and verifying old keys. This is also the most easily underestimated aspect of quantum-resistant upgrades: secure algorithms are only the first step; the real challenge is enabling a large number of users and nodes to safely change keys while preserving original account relationships, permissions, and asset availability. Ordinary accounts face the same problem. The Ethereum roadmap tends to provide "signature agility" through account abstraction, allowing accounts to change verification很多人把 Crypto 看成一场对传统金融的革命，但现实可能更加复杂。 随着现货 ETF、机构托管、上市公司资产负债表以及质押协议不断扩大，越来越多 BTC、ETH 和 SOL 的流动性正在集中到少数大型机构、交易平台和资金池手中。 🟠 $BTC：机构化正在加速 比特币已经不再只是早期 Cypherpunk 的实验。 从公开披露、链上地址和托管数据来看，最大的 BTC 持有群体已经包括长期休眠地址、大型交易所、Strategy、BlackRock 等 ETF 体系、Fidelity 以及美国政府扣押资产。 目前美国现货 BTC ETF 整体持仓已经达到 约110万 BTC 的量级，而上市公司及其他机构的比特币储备也在持续扩大。 这意味着一个重要变化： 资本正在购买 BTC，而不是 BTC 正在消灭资本。 🟣 $ETH：集中度甚至更加值得关注 ETH 的结构与 BTC 不完全一样。 大型机构、交易所、ETF、质押协议和长期资金池控制着大量 ETH。部分大型持仓实体拥有数百万枚 ETH，而 Coinbase、Binance 等交易平台则承担着巨大的托管规模。 与此同时，Lido 等流动8.27 Gold Morning Analysis
Last night, gold was rising but suddenly plunged, breaking below 4600 directly, hitting a low of 4588, then slightly pulled back at the close to 4597. The previous upward momentum has been interrupted, and now it has entered a high-level correction phase.
Technically: The daily chart shows a large bearish candle ending the consecutive rise, the 4-hour chart broke support, upward momentum is gone, and the hourly rebound is just a correction after being oversold. Do not chase longs.
Trading idea: Short near 4625-4645, stop loss at 4660, targets at 4585, 4560, 4530.
Reminder: High volatility, use light positions with stop loss, avoid heavy bottom-fishing, and don't hold stubbornly. #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 #WarshAtJacksonHole risk may be giving markets too much clarity. Once Warsh lays out what inflation, jobs or growth would trigger a hike, every data release becomes easier to trade against that framework. That could mean sharper moves in yields, the dollar and BTC whenever numbers surprise. Markets say they want predictability, but a clear Fed reaction function can also make macro data more powerful. Jackson Hole may reduce policy uncertainty while increasing event volatility$BTC
Technically, it is indeed in a transition zone.
But what makes me different is that I don't think breaking through the 50-week moving average necessarily means everything is fine.
In 2015, 2019, and 2023, it did lead to a bull run after breaking through, but the macro environment was different each time.
The current liquidity environment is much worse compared to back then.
So I will wait to see a pullback confirmation after the breakout, rather than chasing immediately after the breakout.
At this position, being bullish is fine, but I will be more conservative in execution.How did NVIDIA's earnings report go this time? It's that kind of feeling where "the data shows no flaws, but the market reaction is lukewarm."
Revenue was 96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year, with market expectations at 92.2 billion, beating by 4 billion. Data center revenue was 89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, a number that would be explosive in any sector. Jensen Huang said AI has reached a turning point; this is not just empty talk. Hyperscale customers contributed 48.7 billion, up 102% year-over-year, and the AI cloud segment also grew 138%.
Next quarter guidance is 108 billion, analysts previously estimated 104.8 billion, marking the first time quarterly revenue is expected to hit the 100 billion mark, which should be a cause for celebration.
But after-hours trading initially went down. The market is focused on gross margin — this quarter it was 75%, next quarter guidance is 73.5%-74.5%, slightly below the 75% analysts wanted. Storage price increases and tight HBM supply are indeed pushing costs up.
Another thing: NVIDIA $NVDA partnered with six Wall Street firms to create a 500 billion computing power financing platform, using chips as collateral for loans. It looks like financial innovation; Morgan Stanley also said the logic is sound but the risks are hard to quantify — in other words, no one has tried this path yet.
Back to the crypto side with $BTC, NVIDIA has stabilized, and the upstream AI logic hasn't collapsed, which supports sentiment for the entire tech asset space. But if the market starts focusing on gross margin issues, AI stocks may pull back, and short-term risk appetite could be dragged down as well. Let's wait and see. #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 This Friday BTC options expire, don't be stunned by the "$6.4 billion" figure. The real killer isn't the total size, but the $80,000 level.
Let's talk data first: Put/Call ratio is 0.83, the market is clearly bullish. Pain point? Don't bother looking, this surge from 62,000 to 80,000 has made many call options already in the money, so the pain point is no longer effective. What you really need to watch are the huge positions at $75,000 and $80,000. Currently, BTC is hovering around $78,500, and the options market acts like an invisible cage, tightly confining the price between 78,000 and 80,000.
There are only two scenarios:
1) Stabilize below 80,000: Choppy and exhausting, market makers keep selling high and buying low.
2) Strong breakout above 80,000: Gamma hedging goes full throttle, shorts are forced to cover, accelerating a violent upward move. Conversely, if 77,500 breaks down, there’s a vacuum below.
On Friday, ignore the total volume, focus on the 80,000 level. If it holds, keep flying; if not, expect a big pullback.
$BTC $ETH
Do you think this move is a breakout or a fakeout? 👇
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口