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#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Family, Nvidia's earnings report numbers themselves are explosive, but what truly excites the market is the incremental information from the earnings call.
Q2 revenue was $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year and exceeding the expected $92.3 billion. Data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. GAAP net profit was $59.688 billion, with a gross margin of 75%. Q3 guidance is $108 billion, market expectation is $105.1 billion.
What really pushed the after-hours stock price up more than 4% was the CFO's statement on the call — fiscal year 2028 revenue is expected to grow about 70%, far exceeding the market's previous expectation of 45%. Jensen Huang's exact words were even more aggressive: the 70% is still limited by capacity, and the real demand growth rate far exceeds 100%. $NVDA
Several key incremental pieces of information: supply bottlenecks will last at least until the end of fiscal year 2028, with shortages in wafers, HBM, and power across the board. Amazon is deploying an additional 2 million GPUs, and major customers continue to increase their investments. Vera Rubin is now fully operational. Gross margin is under short-term pressure due to rising storage chip prices, about 74% in Q3 and bottoming at 71%-72% in Q4. Nvidia has partnered with six major asset managers to leverage $500 billion in third-party capital, upgrading from just selling hardware to a "hardware + rental revenue sharing" model.
Previously, the market asked if there were enough GPUs; now the question is whether customers have the money to keep building. Nvidia answered this with the 70% guidance and the $500 billion financing platform — money will be found for you, and demand is guaranteed. This earnings report further solidifies the logic of AI infrastructure.#美国核心PCE持平上月, how did Wash's Jackson Hole speech set the tone? $BTC BTC holds on to 78,000 $ETH ETH not chasing 2,500 US July core PCE year-on-year held at 3.3%, on the surface flat compared to the previous month, but month-on-month it has risen from 0.1% to 0.2%; Overall PCE year-on-year remains as high as 3.7%. What's even more noteworthy is that real consumer spending in July showed almost no month-over-month growth. This data does not simply convey negative or positive news, but rather a trickier combination: inflation has not significantly declined, but consumption has begun to lose momentum. Therefore, "core PCE flat" does not mean inflationary pressures have disappeared. It simply is not worse than market expectations, but it does not give Wash enough reason to turn dovish. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data Wash will deliver the Jackson Hole keynote speech at 22:00 Beijing time on August 28. As of the time of writing, the speech had not yet begun. Federal Reserve Official Schedule My judgment on this speech is: Walsh is most likely to adopt a "hawkish tone, no promise of immediate rate hikes." He will reemphasize the 2% inflation target, acknowledge that current prices remain too high, and keep the possibility of rate hikes in September and within the year, but will not lock himself in at any single meeting. Because at the press conference after the July meeting, Wash had already made it clear that the US is doing decent in employment but "clearly not doing enough" in price stability; At the same time, he said he does not want the Jackson Hole speech to be turned entirely into a short-term preview of about 25 basis points. Wash published in July$TRUMP: Enter short!
📊 Key reference points
· Entry zone (short): 2.26 - 2.28 (dense moving average resistance zone)
· Take profit: 2.11 (previous low) / 2.00
· Stop loss: 2.37 (breakthrough of 24-hour high)
💡 Convincing basis (4 core points)
1. Descending channel: After the sharp drop from the 3.679 high, the rebound highs keep decreasing, overall in a downtrend.
2. Moving average resistance: Current price is below the dense MA5/MA10/MA20 zone (2.24-2.28), rebound lacks strength.
3. Volume exhaustion: Trading volume has drastically shrunk, lacking incremental funds, passively following the market trend.
4. Theme fading: Meme hype has passed, heavy overhead resistance above, main force lacks motivation to push up again.
⚠️ Risk warning
Beware of sudden news spikes; if volume breaks above 2.37, short positions must be stopped out unconditionally.
$SOL $DOGE
#财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ The stronger Nvidia's earnings report, the more AI trading enters a "nitpicking stage"
In the past, the market only needed one phrase: demand explosion. Now that's no longer enough. Revenue beating expectations, strong orders, and continued growth in data centers—these have all been anticipated. What truly affects valuation are the less glamorous details like gross margin, memory costs, customer concentration, and
#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest BlackRock is buying up, ancient whales are moving coins: Is a rebound coming?
According to OKX market data, $BTC is at $78,736, down 0.47% in 24H.
$ETH is at $2,494, up 1.19%.
$SOL is at $101.15, up 3.97%.
$HYPE is at $81, down 1.03%.
$OKB is at $111.54, down 2.11%.
Total market cap is $2.67 trillion, with 670 up and 521 down.
In sector performance, Solana ecosystem is up 3.57%, Layer2 down 3.61%, SocialFi down 2.71%, funds are still clustered around SOL.
As of now, net inflows for spot ETFs of BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE are $314 million, $180 million, $9.14 million, and $14.71 million respectively; spot buying has not withdrawn.
BlackRock-related wallets withdrew 3,620 BTC and 12,500 ETH in 10 hours.
In contrast, six wallets dormant for over a decade transferred out a total of 553.59 BTC, showing clear old coin movement sentiment.
Leverage side is more aggressive: one whale just flipped from a BTC short to a 12x long, another address holds a 20x long on SOL with unrealized profits of $11.63 million and has not taken profits yet; the bulls are strong and crowding is beginning.
Currently, the market is forming a structural rebound supported by ETFs and led by SOL.
Watch if BTC can hold above $80,000; only then will there be new room to grow. If leverage loosens, the pullback will be quick.Account Position Divergence Radar
The number of longs and shorts is one layer, and the top position weight is another layer; the real misalignment is often hidden between these two layers.
$DOGE account direction is biased long, while the top holdings direction is biased short; the side with more people is temporarily not the side with heavier top positions. Price and positions move up in the same direction, indicating new positions are involved in this fluctuation, not just pure position reduction driving it. Going forward, stop counting accounts and directly monitor whether the top position weight is repairing towards the long side.
$SUI's three long-short ratios do not give a unified direction; account sentiment and top positions are still pulling against each other. The 15-minute price and positions move up together, risk exposure is expanding, and the next step is to see if the price can continue to realize gains. For now, only disagreement can be confirmed; trading direction still needs a second layer of evidence from positions and price.
$XRP all accounts and top accounts are biased long, but the top position size is biased short; the number of accounts and position weight are not on the same side. Price and positions rise synchronously, confirming that risk exposure expands with the rise. To resolve the divergence, the top position ratio needs to rise, not just rely on the continued increase in the number of accounts.#伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码 The US-Iran drama has a new plot twist: negotiating while fighting, both sides not missing a beat. The impact on the crypto space is twofold. Short-term sentiment has basically been digested; sanctions didn't trigger a surge in oil prices, and Bitcoin actually fell from 81,000 to around 79,000, giving the market a breather. But digital assets have now been included in the secondary sanctions scope, with on-chain settlements and transactions coming under scrutiny. In the medium$BTC surged to 80,000 but was pushed back down, tomorrow afternoon could be even more exciting
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
This candlestick looks quite scary, but the real disruptor right now might not be spot selling, but the options about to expire.
On August 28, about 81,700 BTC options will expire, with a notional value of around $6.4 billion, and 80,000 is again a key level where funds are concentrated. The closer the price gets here, the more market makers will adjust risk, and their buying and selling actions tend to amplify volatility.
So chasing the rally these days is easy to get hit, and shorting isn’t necessarily comfortable either.
The really interesting part is after settlement. If BTC can quickly reclaim 80,000, it means this surge and pullback was more like position shuffling; if it can’t hold above continuously, the support around 77,500 needs serious attention.
Options expiry can mess with the candlesticks, but whether the market is truly strong or not depends on if real money continues to step in after the excitement dies down.Yesterday everyone was shouting about breaking 80,000, but today it's just hovering at 78,700. Many are panicking, but I actually think this is a good thing.
$BTC has fallen back from 80,000 to 78,737, down 0.35%, with a 24-hour range narrowed to 78,602-79,022.
In a strong bull market, the noisiest moves are often not the best moves. The best moves are quiet, with shrinking volume, narrowing ranges, and both bulls and bears reluctant to act. Today is exactly that state.
Think about how this wave rose: Treasury buybacks doubled, ETF weekly inflows of 1.9 billion, short liquidations of 3.1 billion, CLARITY Act. The positive news has been priced in, and the price retraced from 80,906 to 78,737, a pullback of less than 3%. This is called a "breath after positive news realization," not a "trend reversal."
What are the real danger signals? Large volume sell-offs, breaking below 74,000, and bull stampedes. None of these are present now.
78,000-78,600 is short-term support, corresponding to the previous breakout platform. As long as the weekly close holds above 78,000, the next target remains 82,000-85,000. Only if it breaks below 74,000 will the short squeeze narrative be completely over.
I'd rather hold and let the market prove me wrong than try to guess the top for a 3% pullback.
In a bull market, the most costly mistake is perfectionism—trying to catch the entire run while avoiding every pullback, often ending up getting hit from both sides. Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower. Although the market appears calm, funds are cautiously watching and waiting for three key events: the PCE inflation data, Nvidia's earnings report, and officials' speeches.
July's PCE year-over-year rose 3.7%, slightly exceeding market expectations. The probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 42%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high. The current environment will not directly trigger a large-scale valuation cut, but the upward attack space for the indexes has been blocked. There is a clear rotation within the market; after Nvidia's eight consecutive days of decline, its after-hours earnings report initially fell then rose. Memory and AI architecture stocks are strengthening against the trend. Funds have not exited the AI sector but are reallocating before the leader's earnings verification. The U.S. stock market is currently in an event-driven box range in the short term, and the subsequent direction depends on officials' statements. If signals of continued rate hikes are released, defensive sectors will dominate; if the tone shifts toward easing, the Nasdaq will have a chance to rebound.
In the crypto market, $BTC surged to a three-month high of 81,000 before retreating to around 78,000, showing a brief decoupling from U.S. stocks, with characteristics leaning toward gold plus liquidity options. However, stablecoin supply has not expanded in sync, and altcoin performance is weak, indicating this rally is a risk-averse allocation of existing funds rather than a new bull market driven by incremental leverage.
78,000 is an important battleground for $BTC. Positive Nvidia earnings will boost risk appetite and benefit the coin price; if inflation stickiness becomes evident and rate hike expectations intensify, a pullback to 75,000 support is possible.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #英伟达加码Perplexity#US Core PCE Holds Steady from Last Month, How Will the Jackson Hole Speech Set the Tone?
I'm Cige. Core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, matching expectations and previous value, month-over-month 0.2%, GDP revised to 1.5%. Inflation hasn't accelerated, but it hasn't cooled either; the economy hasn't collapsed, nor does it justify a policy shift. September rate hike expectations have slightly increased, and the market has started shifting from "whether data beats expectations" to "whether inflation stickiness can support further tightening."
Friday's speech by Wash at Jackson Hole is currently the only thing that can break the deadlock. The market wants a set of criteria that can connect economic data with policy actions. If he can't provide that, policy divisions in September will continue to tear apart, and BTC will keep oscillating between 78000 and 80000. The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is shifting. Cige is done speaking; savor it. Bitcoin to reach $300,000? The institutional logic is actually not that simple
Bernstein has given the latest forecast: BTC may surge to $125,000 by the end of 2026, further aiming for $150,000 in 2027, with the peak of this cycle possibly around 2029, targeting $300,000.
In a more aggressive scenario, if institutional funds accelerate their entry, combined with the continuous rise of global debt pressure, $200,000 could be seen in 2027, and a surge to $500,000 by 2029 is not ruled out.
There are mainly two underlying logics.
On one side, supply is becoming increasingly tight. About 59% of BTC has not moved in the past year, and the truly willing circulating and selling chips are decreasing.
On the other side, institutional access is becoming more complete. Spot ETFs represented by BlackRock's IBIT allow more traditional funds to allocate BTC more conveniently.
Of course, long-term targets do not necessarily mean short-term price increases. The price ultimately depends on capital inflows, macro environment, and market sentiment.
But what the market should really pay attention to may not be a specific number, but the fact that more and more funds are beginning to re-understand the value of "scarce assets."
Investing has never been about believing in a single price target, but about understanding the long-term trend when others hesitate; and maintaining your own pace when the market goes crazy. $BTC $BICO $WEN #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 NVIDIA really is still the strict father of AI stocks, leading a collective rebound with its smaller peers after hours.
But if you look closely, the stock initially dropped right after the earnings release, only turning positive when CFO Kress mentioned in the conference call that FY2028 revenue is expected to grow by 70%.
Comparing the earnings data to previous expectations, they indeed exceeded forecasts but without extreme positive surprises:
Revenue of $96.2 billion, market expectation around $92.2 billion;
Adjusted EPS of $2.22, expected about $2.10;
Data center revenue of $89 billion, expected about $85.1 billion;
Next quarter revenue guidance of $108 billion, higher than the consensus expectation of about $104.2 billion, and this does not include any revenue from Chinese data centers.
The most important positive point for the "storage three musketeers" was confirmed in the call: due to soaring prices of memory and other components, gross margin may drop to 71%–72% in Q4. This essentially confirms that NVIDIA is transferring part of its profits to upstream suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron.
From the results, the 70% growth guidance did ensure the stock price rise, but it also overextended expectations. Because performance cannot keep surprising with growth forever, but who can predict the future? Trading time for space and supporting the stock price with various means that cannot be immediately falsified is understandable. First, get through the current difficulties, then find new breakthroughs later.
$NVDA #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 What does Jackson Hole mean for U Card users? Let's get practical.
This year's Jackson Hole theme focuses on financial innovation and payments. It seems like a macro event, but it's directly related to U Card users.
The reason is simple: when central banks start discussing stablecoin payment infrastructure, the next step is clearer regulatory frameworks and more standardized settlement channels.
For users, this means:
Compliant platforms will be safer (clearer regulations benefit legitimate players)
Withdrawal paths and settlement networks will be more important than cashback rates
Cards supporting local currency settlement will have stronger long-term adaptability
Recently, when I look at cards on aggregation platforms, I pay special attention to the "settlement network" dimension. Cards that use stablecoin direct settlement channels usually have faster arrival speeds and better fee structures than traditional banking channels.
Macro events may sound distant, but they affect the infrastructure behind the card in your hand. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
I believe the evaluation logic for the AI market has completely shifted. The market no longer pays just for capital expenditure but starts to rigorously scrutinize AI monetization capabilities. Only companies that can produce real orders and cash flow can continue to rise.
NVIDIA's Q2 revenue doubled with a FY2028 growth guidance of 70%, which seems strong, but actual delivery is still limited by supply bottlenecks, indicating that the marginal effect of simply stacking hardware is diminishing. On the software side, Salesforce AI ARR is approaching $4 billion, CrowdStrike's new ARR hit a record, and Synopsys raised its outlook. These signals show AI returns are extending from chips to design and application layers. Okta's moderate growth further confirms market differentiation: only truly converted orders are recognized.
Hardware side: NVIDIA's data center business continues high growth but is constrained by packaging capacity like CoWoS; having orders but no stock is the current situation.
Software side: Salesforce's AI product annual recurring revenue is close to $4 billion, a very concrete monetization milestone; CrowdStrike's new annual recurring revenue also set a record.
Verification point: Marvell's upcoming performance is key. As a representative of network connectivity, its performance will test whether AI growth can extend from computing chips through data transmission to enterprise software.
The AI market has entered the verification phase. Hardware looks at delivery bottlenecks, software looks at ARR conversion.
@OKX星球 $ETH second coin is grinding between 2465 and 2505 today, with a small 24-hour increase of 1% to 2.5%, and a weekly gain of over 25%, clearly outperforming the main coin.
The most eye-catching data is the spot ETF, which had a net inflow of $307 million on August 27, setting a recent single-day record and marking seven consecutive days of net inflows. BlackRock's ETHA alone absorbed $263 million. The total size of ETH ETFs has surpassed $30.1 billion, showing that institutions are truly treating the second coin as a core asset this time.
The technical side is also overheated, with the daily RSI exceeding 90, the kind of rise that makes your palms sweat. 2500 is a psychological resistance at a round number, 2415 to 2430 is short-term support, and breaking below 2325 would look bad structurally. This wave has surged steeply from around 1573 to 2547, so profit-taking is definitely expected.
The good news is that on-chain staking rates are high, exchange balances are low, supply is tightening, and with the Grammsterdam upgrade on the way, the fundamentals are solid.
The bad news is that regulation is a bit cold; Galaxy cut the probability of the CLARITY Act passing from 75% to 10%, and the SEC still hasn't given a clear answer on whether ETH counts as a security.
My stance: continue to be bullish long-term, but don't blindly chase above 2500 in the short term. It's safer to wait for a pullback to 2460-2475 and buy in batches, with a stop loss below 2435. The greed index is already at 80, and it's precisely at times like this that you need to control your impulses and not be led by FOMO.I was about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked my balance and decided against it. The market is always right. $RE When others are running away, I saw a pullback hold steady, with support below, so I said it was a good time to go long. The chart looked scary at that time, but the logic was very clear.
Entry price was 0.42740. Many people were shaken out, but I held on. Now $RE has reached 0.53230, with a floating profit of +490.45%. This gain feels good; the patience paid off. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly rewarding.
The money you make reflects your understanding; the money you lose reflects your shortcomings. Experts die trying to catch the bottom, amateurs perish chasing highs, and smart people live in the moment.
Position management: first take profit on 75%, securing the bulk of gains, then move the stop loss for the remaining 25% above the cost price to let profits run. Take profits when you should; don’t let gains turn into discomfort.
Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Patiently wait for the next signal, and I will notify you immediately. Awaiting good news.
$XRP $ETH Core PCE year-on-year was 3.3%, flat from last month, and many people breathed a sigh of relief; But month-on-month it accelerated from 0.1% to 0.2%. BTC at $78.8k, touched $81.3k but still failed to hold 80k. How will Wash set the tone on Friday? I won't add the final blow before setting the tone. BTC is now at $78.8k. It's up about 9% over the past 7 days, and fear and greed have pushed it from 27 to 74, but spot volume is only 0.56x. My first reaction wasn't 'macro news has taken effect,' but rather: money has flowed in, sentiment is hot, but trading volume has cooled—this combination is the worst thing when you hit the setting day. So I held back my chasing hand. The topic was 'Core PCE unchanged last month.' The price was steady year-on-year: 3.3%, same as in June. But the month-on-month growth has risen from 0.1% to 0.2%, and overall PCE year-on-year is still at 3.7%. Falling short of the Fed's 2% target isn't 'almost there,' but still a long way off. The market likes to read 'flat on the left'; 'Stickiness is hidden on acceleration on the right.' Flat gives space, not a green light. Wash's Jackson Hole debuts, and the theme can revolve around financial innovation, but the market only listens to three sentences: Does he recognize sticky inflation? Is liquidity loose or tight? Is September a wait-and-see or pressure-driven approach? Loose—risk assets can breathe a sigh of relief, BTC has a better chance to test 80k. Neutral—volatility amplifies first, 78–80k is worn out sideways. Hawkish lean—first look at 78k, if you lose it, just revalue it as a multi-level revaluation. I don't bet on whether he'll call for crypto. What I bet is: with just one tone, you can win📊 $NVDA this time is more like "fundamentals remain strong, but valuation demands are rising".
In the effective snapshot before the earnings report, NVDA was once around $210.55, down about 3.2% from the previous close, significantly weaker than $QQQ's approximately -0.9% during the same period, indicating that capital had proactively reduced some risk exposure to core AI assets before the earnings.
The earnings themselves are actually very strong: Q2 revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year; meanwhile, the company’s guidance for next quarter revenue is about $108 billion, continuing to confirm that AI computing demand shows no obvious cooling.
But the market is no longer simply trading on "whether AI demand is strong or not," but on whether growth can continue to exceed already very high expectations. The stock price fell first then rallied after the earnings release, also indicating significant capital divergence: performance is strong enough, but gross margin pressure, rising costs, and uncertainty in the China business are starting to become new valuation constraints.
👀 In the short term, NVDA is currently more worth watching for "whether the positive momentum can be sustained after the good news," rather than just looking at the earnings numbers. If the stock price can subsequently regain the weak range before the earnings, it means capital is still willing to pay for AI’s high growth; if even strong earnings cannot push the price to continue rising, it means the market is gradually shifting from "chasing growth" to "picking valuations."
Overall, fundamentals have not obviously weakened; what’s truly becoming difficult is the ever-higher expectations.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Large Inflows into Gold ETFs, Risk-Aversion Assets Are Being Reallocated
In this round of gold price increase, what truly deserves attention is not just the new highs in gold prices, but that capital is beginning to reprice gold with real money.
The latest data shows a significant recent capital inflow into global gold ETFs. In just one round of capital statistics, gold ETFs attracted about 46.7 tons, approximately $6.4 billion, marking the largest single inflow in nearly 10 months. Meanwhile, gold and BTC combined have attracted about $7 billion over the past five trading days. 
This indicates a very interesting change:
Capital is not simply fleeing from risky assets to cash, but is instead searching anew for assets that can hedge against currency, fiscal, and geopolitical risks.
Why is capital now concentrating on buying gold?
There are three core reasons.
First, U.S. dollar credit and fiscal risks.
The long-term U.S. debt, fiscal deficit, and dollar purchasing power issues are re-entering capital pricing.
Therefore, this gold rally does not rely entirely on "interest rate cut expectations."
There is even a noteworthy combination:
Gold up + BTC up + Dollar weakening.
Market trading is increasingly approaching what is called a "currency depreciation trade." 
Second, the safe-haven function of U.S. Treasuries is being reassessed.
After the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, long-end yields and the dollar have temporarily declined, which has become an important catalyst for gold's breakout. 
The previous logic was:
Rising risk → Buy dollars → Buy U.S. Treasuries.
Now some capital is shifting to:
Rising fiscal risk → Gold.
This does not mean U.S. Treasuries have lost their safe-haven status, but safe-haven capital is beginning to divert.
Third, institutional allocation is strengthening.
Data from the World Gold Council shows that in July, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of about $3 billion, with global gold ETF holdings increasing by about 23 tons to 4,068 tons. 
So this time it is not retail investors suddenly chasing gold, but institutional allocation demand returning.
Will risk-averse assets further expand beyond "buying gold"?
I believe signs of this are already appearing.
The market can now roughly be divided into three categories:
First layer: Traditional safe haven — Gold
Core issues addressed:
Inflation, currency credit, geopolitical risk.
Second layer: Liquidity safe haven — Cash/short-term bonds
Core issues addressed:
Waiting for opportunities, reducing portfolio volatility.
Third layer: High-beta hard asset — BTC
BTC’s nature is somewhat special.
It is not yet a traditional safe-haven asset, but in the current market, more capital is beginning to treat it as a scarce asset and a tool for allocation outside the dollar system.
This also explains the recent rare synchronous rise of gold and BTC. 
But there is a very important risk here.
Large inflows into gold ETFs do not inherently mean gold prices can rise indefinitely.
Because gold has already experienced a rapid surge, short-term capital is becoming crowded.
Moreover, PCE, Jackson Hole, and Federal Reserve policy expectations will still directly affect the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
If the Fed turns clearly hawkish:
Dollar ↑ → U.S. Treasury yields ↑ → Gold under short-term pressure.
So what should be observed now is:
Whether ETF capital inflows can be sustained, not just the size of single-day inflows.
If gold ETFs continue to have net inflows in the coming weeks, while the dollar weakens and long-end yields decline, then this is not a short-term risk trade but possibly a readjustment of institutional asset allocation proportions.
This is actually a positive signal for BTC.
This point is especially worth noting.
If gold ETFs continue to attract capital and BTC ETFs also continue to receive funds, it means capital is not simply "fleeing risky assets."
Instead, it is seeking:
Scarce assets + assets resistant to currency depreciation + assets outside the traditional financial system.
Therefore, I will focus on one combination going forward:
Sustained inflows into gold ETFs + sustained inflows into BTC ETFs + weakening dollar + long-end U.S. Treasury yields peaking.
If all four conditions are met simultaneously, gold and BTC may continue to form a "dual hard asset driver."
In short: Large inflows into gold ETFs do not truly indicate how fearful the market is, but rather that institutions are reconsidering "where money should be placed." In the past, risk aversion mainly relied on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries; now gold is reclaiming part of the allocation, while BTC is competing for another portion of "non-sovereign scarce asset" capital. $BTC #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 A few days ago, I kept asking a question:
After the shorts get liquidated, who will continue to push?
Now, it seems the next in line is starting to appear.
In the past 10 hours, the BlackRock-related ETF wallet withdrew from Coinbase Prime:
3,620 BTC, about $282 million
12,530 ETH, about $30.6 million
A total of $312 million.
A single withdrawal doesn't say much, but looking at the past week is interesting:
1. BTC: Institutional money is still flowing in
The US spot BTC ETF has had net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.57 billion.
Coincidentally, IBIT recently had a single-day net inflow of about $284.4 million, and this time the BTC value transferred into the ETF wallet is about $282 million.
The two figures almost match.
So this batch of BTC looks more like delivery and storage after ETF subscriptions, rather than a simple wallet reshuffle.
2. ETH: Someone is starting to take over as well
ETH ETFs have also maintained continuous net inflows in recent trading days.
This time, the BlackRock-related wallet again withdrew 12,530 ETH from Coinbase Prime.
At least this shows one thing:
Institutions are not only focused on BTC.
3. What we really need to watch next is not the shorts anymore
The first push came from short liquidations.
But the short squeeze can't last forever.
If ETFs can continue to maintain net inflows, then the market will shift from:
"Shorts forced to buy"
Slowly to:
"Institutions actively taking over."
These two types of rallies are completely different in nature.
So from now on, I will only watch one signal:
As long as ETFs don't ease off the gas, this rally can't be easily said to be over.
But chasing the market now is obviously not as comfortable as a week ago.
$BTC $ETH $NVDA Nvidia introduces a revenue-sharing mechanism (including "take-it-or-leave-it" and minimum revenue guarantees), marking its business model shift from selling hardware to charging service fees, aiming to redistribute industry chain risks and rewards.
For Nvidia itself, this is a proactive strategic upgrade. Locking in long-term revenue can smooth performance fluctuations and reduce reliance on chip sales alone; meanwhile, by sharing the downstream cloud providers' idle computing power risk, it can further bind customers and consolidate AI ecosystem dominance. However, this move also indirectly acknowledges that AI demand is not unlimited, requiring Nvidia to absorb some future uncertainties and customer credit risks, taking on more complex financial and operational challenges.
For upstream suppliers like SanDisk, the impact is an indirect "dimensionality reduction strike." As Nvidia's core HBM supplier, SanDisk's product barrier lies in manufacturing processes, while Nvidia's barrier is in the CUDA ecosystem and platform services. The gap in their business models is amplified, highlighting SanDisk's cyclical vulnerability as a "commodity" storage chip supplier. Additionally, Nvidia's "charging water fees" will squeeze the survival space of downstream pure computing power resellers, transmitting operational pressure back and putting SanDisk under a harsher price-cutting environment. Previous concerns about AI computing power oversupply have already caused significant stock price volatility. Although SanDisk has tried to sign long-term agreements to stabilize expectations, whether it can build its own ecosystem barrier remains unknown.
Overall, Nvidia deepens its moat through model innovation, while SanDisk's commoditized nature appears passive in the face of platform strategies. Market concerns about its future bargaining power and profit margins may persist. $SNDK If a sudden macro shock occurs, the market will quickly price inflation and interest rate risks, causing BTC to plunge rapidly overnight to $30,000. At this moment, your account holds 5 BTC, resulting in a large unrealized loss. The two most direct choices before you are: panic and sell your losses to avoid further downside risk; or judge the price as a missell and use reserve funds to buy the dip against the trend and dilute your holdings. In the recently concluded super data week, the market fully played out this macro-driven market scenario. July U.S. PCE Price Data Release showed overall PCE year-on-year 3.7%, core PCE 3.3% year-on-year. Inflationary stickiness has not significantly eased, the market quickly raised expectations for Fed rate hikes this year, US Treasury yields rose simultaneously, and global risk assets collectively came under pressure. Shortly after, Nvidia released its Q2 earnings report, with revenue and profit exceeding market expectations, but after-hours the stock price first plunged and then rebounded, further amplifying market disagreements over AI valuations, and sentiment fluctuations in tech stocks were transmitted outward to the crypto market. Any macro-level movement could trigger sharp spikes in BTC and ETH without needing large on-chain transfers. In every round of rapid declines, the market naturally splits into two types of traders: some sell chips in panic; others treat the decline as a rare window to position their positions. But most people overlook a core fact: your choices are not determined by which price drop, but by your position structure, holding costs, whether to leverage or not, and the duration of your funds. IfWhy has $80,000 repeatedly failed to break through? ① Concentrated profit-taking by long-term holders (the biggest suppression) On-chain data shows that after BTC surged more than 25% last week, a large number of long-term holders began transferring their positions to exchanges. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) rose to 1.48 on August 22, the highest since July 25, indicating that long-term investors are realizing profits at a faster pace. CryptoQuant pointed out: "The key issue is not whether BTGenius Trader - Little Soybean (Day13)
$BTC
Daily chart: Last night at 20:30, the PCE changed the script. July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. Core PCE year-on-year was steady at 3.3%, but the month-on-month 0.2% is the highest since April — solid proof of sticky inflation. The probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 36% to 40%, the US Dollar Index rose above 99, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged back to 4.65%. Bitcoin promptly dropped below 78,000, currently consolidating narrowly around 78,700. After surging to 81,200 this week, it has fallen for three consecutive days. It has been emphasized multiple times before that above 80,000 is a dense trap zone; without incremental funds, it cannot be eaten in one bite.
The good news is that spot ETFs have had net inflows for 7 consecutive days, with +314 million on 8/26 alone, totaling 3.03 billion in August, and AUM is approaching 99 billion;
The bad news is that Strategy hasn't bought coins for two weeks, long-term holders are cashing out in batches at high levels, and the 8/22 correction cleared 547 million in leveraged positions.
The real master switch is Friday's debut of Waller at Jackson Hole — with the PCE number out, it's hard for him to be dovish. If he turns hawkish, the QE Lite depreciation trade narrative will be directly hit;
Technically, the daily chart is still bullish, but the 4-hour MACD red bars are continuously contracting, indicating a short-term digestion phase after overbought conditions. Judgment: 78,000-77,000 is the first line of defense, direction depends on Waller's answer. Intraday movement range: 78,000-79,600. 73.929 $HYPE long, 50x, now 81.016. The core of this trade is not the technical aspect, but the sector rhythm — the sector to which HYPE belongs started ahead of the broader market that day, and 73.929 was exactly the follow-up entry point when the sector leader pulled back. Reviewing the trade shows: the pattern of the sector leader moving first and the followers moving later is fully confirmed in this trade.
After holding for about an hour, it reached 81.016 with substantial unrealized gains. However, the follow-up stocks' upward momentum is weaker than the leader's; usually, when the leader pauses, they drop. This is a common issue with sector rotation trades.
Subsequent handling: do not hold out with them; reduce position directly in the 81-82 range, and move the stop loss for the remaining position up to cost. The money made in sector rotation trades is from "being first," not from "late momentum." Next time with similar opportunities, only trade the leader, not the followers, or get on board after the leader is confirmed. $BTC $ETH South Korea's central bank raises interest rates for the second consecutive time! Global liquidity divergence, the market's hidden variable has arrived
$BTC South Korea's central bank has acted again! The benchmark interest rate has risen to 3.00%, tightening for the second time in two months, marking the first consecutive rate hikes in over three years.
Once the decision was made, the Korean won continued to strengthen, rising as much as 0.56% on the day. Since June, the won has surged over 12% in total.
Why is South Korea in such a hurry? Growth (GDP growth expected at 3.3% in 2026) is decent, but inflation remains above the 2% target, and exchange rate pressure is huge—three major burdens pressing down, so they have to hit the brakes.
But what’s really worth watching today is not South Korea, but the "divergence"
The market is still waiting for the U.S. to ease, while South Korea has already hit the brakes twice in a row.
On one side, global funds are trading on expectations of U.S. easing; on the other, Asian central banks, due to growth, exchange rate, and inflation pressures, are pushing funding costs in the opposite direction.
Global liquidity is not a broad easing but a severe split.
What does this mean for BTC?
1. Don’t expect a "global easing" resonance in the short term
One of the core logics behind BTC’s rise from 64,000 to 80,000 was the "easing expectation." Now South Korea’s rate hike proves: not all central banks are easing, liquidity stories have cracks, and U.S. expectations alone can’t support a full bull market.
2. The strength or weakness of the dollar is the real game changer
South Korea’s rate hike → stronger won → Asia-Pacific capital inflows/volatility, which may disturb risk appetite in the short term. But BTC’s pricing anchor remains the dollar + U.S. Treasury real yields. Whether the Fed eases or not is still the biggest variable; South Korea is a side story, not the main line.
3. Who turns first next is the big variable
The market is currently betting on U.S. easing, but if inflation fluctuates, the Fed holds steady, and Asia tightens, global liquidity will be tighter than anyone expects. This expectation gap is the powder keg for the next big risk asset volatility.
In summary
South Korea’s rate hike itself is not fatal, but it is the latest evidence that "global easing is not universal."
BTC’s real opponent has never been the South Korean central bank, but the shift in global liquidity expectations.
Next to watch closely: U.S. CPI, Fed speeches, dollar index—who eases first, who tightens first, that’s the hand that will decide the next wave’s direction. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Recently, the market has been discussing a question: Will AI Agents directly eliminate traditional SaaS? Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff has come forward this time to say: There is no such thing as a so-called "SaaS end." Let's put it simply. SaaS is the software that companies pay for every month or year, such as Salesforce helping companies manage customers, sales, and after-sales. AI Agents are more like "AI employees who can do their own work"—if you tell them the goal, they can search for information, access software, handle customers, or even complete entire tasks. So the market worries: since AI can handle things on its own, will companies still need to buy so many traditional software accounts in the future? But Salesforce's latest financial report offers a different answer. Q2 revenue was $11.3 billion, up 11% year-on-year; More importantly, Agentforce and Data 360's annualized recurring revenue has approached $3.9 billion, up more than 210% year-on-year, and the company has also raised its full-year revenue forecast. In other words, AI has at least not swallowed Salesforce yet; instead, it is becoming its new source of growth. This is also Benioff's confidence in refuting the "SaaS end." AI agents may change the way we use software, but enterprise data, customer relationships, and workflows will not disappear into thin air. The future may just be "people pointing software"Reviewing historical data, BTC's volatility around the Jackson Hole Symposium is always significant. In 2023, Powell's speech was hawkish, and BTC dropped 5% that day; in 2024, the speech was dovish, and BTC rose 8% over the week. This time, with Wash's speech and PCE data holding steady, market expectations lean dovish. BTC current price is 78099, 24h amplitude 1742 points, rebounded 299 points from the low of 77800. Support and resistance levels verified by three methods: previous high 79542, round number resistance 80000, moving average resistance 79200; support at 78500/78000. Retail investors often heavily bet on direction before major events, which is a big taboo. I previously lost 200,000 U betting this way. Now opening a position with 5000 U, 5x leverage, stop loss at 77800, target 80000, risk-reward ratio 3:1, never hold a position without a stop loss. History won't simply repeat, but retail investors' mistakes always do. Don't let this speech become your liquidation anniversary. $BTC #USCorePCEStableMonthOverMonth, how will Wash's Jackson Hole speech set the tone?NVIDIA's earnings report exploded, but $BTC may not follow the rise! Why?
Q2 revenue was $96.22 billion, exceeding expectations;
Adjusted EPS was $2.22, also above expectations;
Data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year!
Q3 revenue guidance is directly set at $108 billion, also higher than expected.
The data is indeed impressive, so why didn't the stock take off with such a report? Because the market is no longer satisfied with just beating expectations.
NVIDIA's performance in recent quarters has been increasingly impressive, yet the stock price remains under pressure. For NVIDIA now, beating expectations has become the baseline.
There are three key points here:
First, can Rubin smoothly take over;
Second, how long can the massive AI capital expenditure continue;
Third, will rising storage costs like HBM and DRAM continue to squeeze gross margins.
These are the real answers behind this earnings report.
As for BTC, there's no need to try to rationalize its movement based on NVIDIA's stock price.
Because the correlation between BTC and NVDA is not as strong as before; BTC has its own ETF funds, liquidity, and capital logic.
Moreover, last night the PCE indicated a pessimistic outlook on rate cuts, while today NVIDIA stated AI demand is still strong. One is bullish, the other bearish. Next, let's watch for Wash's statement tomorrow.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 X Layer (OKX L2) Current Situation and Outlook
X Layer is currently in a phase of accelerated expansion, positioned as the "new infrastructure for on-chain finance." Technically, it has migrated from zkEVM to an enhanced version of OP Stack, with OKB as the sole Gas token (supply capped at about 21 million), and transaction fees are extremely low (approximately $0.0001–0.0005).
Key Data (August 2026)
• DeFi TVL surpassed $100 million (about 10x growth in half a year), with Aave + Uniswap as the main contributors
• Stablecoin supply exceeds $2 billion, with USDG accounting for a very high proportion
• Cumulative active addresses exceed 4.2 million, with over 400 million transactions
Core Narrative
Focus on pushing RWA (xStocks trading is active, often accounting for over 80% of trading volume) and Exchange OS (staking OKB allows deployment of spot/perpetual/prediction markets). Recently launched a $5 million RWA liquidity incentive, with the first round already implemented.
Advantages and Risks
Advantages include OKX traffic diversion + extremely low costs + deep integration with CeFi. Risks lie in the ecosystem still being early-stage, with growth highly dependent on incentives and parent company resources; real user retention and independent application deployment are key tests.
Personal View
Short-term (second half of this year) optimistic about continued momentum in RWA and trading scenarios. Medium to long-term cautiously optimistic—if incentive-driven traffic can be converted into long-term liquidity, there is a chance to become a distinctive on-chain financial infrastructure; otherwise, it may fall into the competitive dilemma of being an "exchange-affiliated chain."
Not investment advice; data changes rapidly, recommend continuous tracking of L2BEAT, DeFiLlama, and official updates. $SNDK Third scenario realization?
Yesterday's drop before the US stock market opened was actually a bear trap, making everyone think the market would continue to fall today. But after the US market opened, SanDisk perfectly matched Kai Ge's third scenario, blasting the shorts, breaking through 1500 with high volume at the open, and holding above 1500. Then, Nvidia's earnings report came out at midnight, pushing the price even higher.
The information Nvidia provided last night is very critical — fiscal year 2028 revenue is expected to grow about 70%, far exceeding the previous analyst expectation of 44%. The company also stated that actual demand growth has already exceeded 70%, even approaching 100%.
This means AI demand is not over; it is actually accelerating. As AI computing power increases, the demand for servers, storage, and data centers grows accordingly. This is why funds have returned to the semiconductor and storage sectors today.
As one of the leaders in the storage sector, SanDisk has directly wiped away the downturn and completely reversed sentiment. Today, the key focus is whether 1500 can hold. If it holds, I continue to expect strength to persist; if it doesn't, be cautious of a pullback after a rally.
Nvidia has reignited the AI sector, so can SanDisk leverage this momentum to break through previous highs? The real highlight is yet to come! 👇👇👇
This is my personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice! #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Coinbase teams up with Better to launch BTC mortgage down payment program
Coinbase and Better have opened a BTC mortgage down payment program to eligible homebuyers in the United States. It does not involve buying a house directly with BTC: borrowers do not need to sell their coins but must collateralize BTC worth at least 250% of the down payment loan.
A BTC price drop itself will not trigger a margin call; however, if repayment is overdue by 60 days, Better can liquidate the collateral.
This provides long-term holders with a financing option without selling their coins, but it is not a risk-free way to maintain upside exposure. The price risk of BTC does not disappear; it coexists with monthly repayment obligations. If cash flow issues arise, the collateralized BTC may be sold.
What changes is the financing method for holders, not BTC's payment attributes.
#Bitcoin #BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 这一轮 BTC 从 6 万多一路冲上 81,235 美元（8/25，三个多月来首次站上 8 万）， 很多人把它归结为"空头被清算+追涨资金"，但我想说一个更底层的逻辑—— 8 月 19 日美国财政部宣布**加倍购买长期国债**，这才是点燃行情的那根火柴。 当财政端释放"宽松"信号、美元走弱，"贬值交易（debasement trade）"就回来了： 资金重新涌入黄金和 BTC 这类"稀缺、非主权"资产对冲法币稀释。 这就是为什么这一波 BTC 和黄金是同步走强的——它不是单纯的币圈内卷， 而是一次跨资产的"法币信用重新定价"。 看几个值得记住的数据： ① 8/17-8/21，美国现货 BTC+ETH ETF 单周净流入 26 亿美元，是 2026 年年内最强， BTC 产品独揽约 19.2 亿，IBIT 一家就贡献近 78%（8/21 单日 2.39 亿）； 更关键的是，8/24、8/25 继续分别流入 3.38 亿、3.14 亿，已连续 8 个交易日为正—— 轧空之后 ETF 仍在真金白银接盘，说明spot需求在替代杠杆驱After the previous violent short squeeze, BTC has now entered a high-level turnover phase. After surging to touch 81,000, it has pulled back and is currently consolidating between 78,000 and 79,000. Many people are debating whether it can firmly hold above 80,000. My view is: do not blindly go long now, nor casually take heavy short positions.
Current Market Situation
This round of rally was driven by liquidity expectations from US Treasury repurchase operations, continuous ETF inflows, and short covering. However, short-term indicators have already entered a greedy zone. There is a large amount of selling pressure from positions being freed above 80,000-81,000. The bullish momentum from continuous rallies is clearly weakening, and every surge triggers profit-taking and selling pressure.
Two Scenario Analyses
Scenario One: Breakthrough Upward Again
Conditions: ETF maintains large net inflows, US Treasury yields do not rebound, and the pullback does not effectively break below 77,500. After holding above 80,000, the next target resistance is 82,000-83,000.
Scenario Two: Surge and Pullback
If ETF inflows rapidly shrink and macro expectations reverse, and 80,000 repeatedly fails to break, a round of correction will begin. The first support is 77,500-78,000. Once volume-driven break below 76,000 occurs, the short-term rebound structure will be damaged.
Do not chase highs.
If you want to go long, wait for a pullback to key support to stabilize before entering with a light position; if you want to short, do not top pick too early—consider it only if the 80,000 level fails to break.
Focus on two signals: ETF capital flow and 10-year US Treasury yield. These two are the core factors driving this market move. Do not simply watch the candlesticks to bet on direction.The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $2.61 trillion to $2.67 trillion, with a 24-hour change of about -2.15%. The total market 24-hour trading volume sharply dropped from $171.56 billion the previous day to $114.01 billion, a decline of about one-third.
Bitcoin $BTC is fluctuating narrowly in the $78,000-$79,000 range, failing to effectively break through the $80,000 mark. Ethereum $ETH is relatively strong, breaking through $2,500.
Short term: The market is in a "post-surge digestion phase" — Bitcoin holds above $78,000, but market breadth has sharply deteriorated, trading volume has halved, and many longs have been liquidated, indicating increased risk in chasing gains.
Medium term: Bitcoin's weekly gain still reaches 18%, ETFs continue to see inflows, institutional interest returns, and fundamental support remains intact. The market is digesting rather than reversing. Tomorrow (August 28), Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole will be a key catalyst.📊BTC Market Data Review｜23% Weekly Surge, This Rally Not Purely Driven by Contract Short Squeeze
This week BTC recorded a 23% weekly gain. Previously, the market was long shrouded in cautious sentiment, with short positions continuously accumulating. Then two rounds of large-scale liquidations directly shattered market expectations: $1.37B liquidated across the network on the 19th, and another $739M on the 21st, with short squeezes driving prices rapidly upward.
A noteworthy signal: after the high-leverage positions were cleaned out, the market did not immediately enter an aggressive re-leveraging phase.
Perpetual open interest fell back to 284,000 BTC, and the funding rate returned to a neutral range.
The contract leverage did not expand in sync, indicating that this rally is not solely driven by derivatives competing to push prices up; incremental spot buying provided the underlying support.
For the continuation of the trend, focus on the sustainability of spot capital inflows and changes in overall market leverage levels.$ZEC surged from 760 to 818 early this morning, retail investors must clearly understand this logic
The day before yesterday it dropped to 760. On the surface, the ETF's first-day trading volume was only 14.8 million, below expectations, short-term funds rushed out, and leveraged long positions were liquidated one after another, dropping 111 USD in one day.
But this kind of thing is too common in the crypto world—positive news turns into negative, just an emotional release.
The rebound to 818 last night happened because the market calmed down and realized that none of the fundamental logic supporting ZEC's bull run has been broken. This privacy coin ETF by Grayscale is the first of its kind in the US, with Coinbase custody and Jane Street as market maker; the compliant institutional entry channel has been opened. Grayscale's parent company DCG is also rumored to inject 200,000 ZEC, and the ETF approval won't be overturned just because the first-day trading volume was modest.
Looking at the technical side, the NU7 upgrade voting has started, smoothing issuance and reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, all substantial improvements. More importantly, the Ironwood upgrade completely fixed the May vulnerability, with old pools frozen and new pools mathematically verified line by line—this is the hardcore trump card institutions dare to heavily invest in.
My personal judgment:
The rebound from 760 to 818 means the market is saying "The ETF has landed, but the story is far from over." However, the current long positions are crowded, so a short-term pullback to shake out weak hands is highly likely. Retail investors should not rush to chase; consider waiting for a pullback near 780 for a safer entry.
Just like some previous altcoin ETFs that fell first then rose after approval, the script often repeats. #XRP leads crypto market down nearly 7% #Dollar hits largest gain in nearly four weeks $AAOI's post-market surge to $118 indicates buyers are attempting to repair the structure, but the $600 million ATM offering has suppressed the momentum to break through the 52-week high of $233. The core conflict centers on the pace of Q3 revenue guidance between $255 million and $290 million landing versus the valuation pressure from equity dilution.
The current stock price closes at $113.8, having risen from the 52-week low of $18.5, with a YTD gain exceeding 220%, but it remains in a wide consolidation phase digesting the May high of $233. The post-market price rising above $118 triggers a short-term reshuffling of chips within the pullback range.
In terms of driving factors, the doubling of 800G shipments and Q2 revenue of $192 million (up 86% YoY) establish a performance baseline. Texas capacity expansion locks in the delivery capability of 650,000 units per month by year-end, while the dilution expectation caused by the $600 million ATM offering is the main factor suppressing the slope.
If the upward scenario initiates, the price needs to solidify chips around $118 and test higher resistance. The premise is that Q3 revenue reaches the upper guidance of $290 million, and the 1.6T capacity ramp-up progress eliminates the valuation discount caused by the offering. The signal of this scenario failing is intraday turnover expanding without volume and failure to close above $118.
If the downward scenario triggers, selling pressure from the ATM offering will dominate the trend, and the price may test and break the $113.8 support zone. Trigger conditions include production ramp-up delays or bottlenecks in 800G delivery, causing deviation from the $1.1 billion full-year revenue target. Once $113.8 is broken with sustained volume contraction, the downward structure will be confirmed.
Peers $LITE trade near $939 with YTD gains over 150%, $COHR is at $294, and the sector overall remains buoyant but with increased volatility. The failure point of the overall bullish structure is set at the key support of $113.8; daily closes consistently below this level would indicate a phase reversal of the prior 220% uptrend.
The most critical observation variables over the next 7 days are the strength of the $118 post-market gains during regular trading hours and the actual execution pace of the $600 million ATM offering.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码 Hyperliquid activated a new mechanism yesterday: 90% of the earnings from approximately $5 billion in reserves will be automatically used to buy back HYPE, with the first execution on October 3; the platform's daily fees are about $6.5 million, which is the buyback fund.
However, on August 29, about 14.18 million HYPE tokens were unlocked, worth approximately $1.2 billion at the current price, nearly half of which went to early investors. The buyback funds will arrive in October, but the unlocked tokens will circulate by the end of the month, meaning the directions are opposite and the timing is staggered.
The real test comes after the unlock: how many tokens will enter exchanges.
On the same day, Uniswap confirmed the activation of the v4 fee switch, where about one-sixth of the trading fees are used to buy and burn UNI. The daily protocol revenue increased from $114,000 to about $325,000. Two leading DeFi platforms implemented "revenue → buyback" on the same day.
The headwind is macroeconomic: US July PCE year-over-year rose 3.7%, slightly above expectations, and the market's pricing for a September rate hike rose to 42%. Bitcoin fell from above 81,000 to around 78,000. Before the Fed Chair's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, interest rate expectations remain a variable.
Next, watch three things: exchange inflows of HYPE within 48 hours after unlocking, the actual daily UNI burn amount, and whether the Jackson Hole speech provides a policy path.$XPL listened to advice and shorted down to 0.02. Do you still dare to bottom-fish this coin? The project team looks down on you. This is not a dump at all, you know? The project team’s support rate for this token is almost zero. It’s not a real cash buyback but a release of reward xpl, endless and infinite selling pressure. Which market maker dares to move? This is also why the peak was right at the opening. I bottom-fished from 0.6 to 0.4, then after communicating with a group of big shots on TG for a long time, I directly cut losses and switched to shorting. Now everything has long since come back.NVIDIA's earnings report is out, and Hynix is really frustrating right now 😭
Stayed up until dawn last night to finish watching NVIDIA $NVDA's earnings report, feeling quite conflicted after.
Objectively, the earnings data looks great, with revenue and next quarter guidance all exceeding market expectations. The after-hours trading followed the usual script: a plunge at first, then a strong rebound.
At least one thing is confirmed: the overall demand for AI computing power hasn't collapsed, the big foundation is stable.
But there's a very key point many people overlook.
Throughout the entire call, they never clearly confirmed the HBM memory specs for the next-generation GPU.
There have been rumors about possible downgrades, which is the biggest hidden risk hanging over Hynix, like a stone suspended in midair, not fully settled yet.
Back to Hynix $SKHY itself.
The fundamentals are indeed strong, profits have surged significantly, and HBM orders are basically fully booked, with Hynix taking the largest share of this pie.
But the awkward part is, these good news have already been largely priced into the stock.
Those who have traded Hynix recently should deeply feel this stock is especially torturous right now.
Often it strengthens before the market opens, then plunges sharply right at the open; if it weakens pre-market, it tends to bottom out and pull up.
Stop losses on both long and short sides get triggered repeatedly, whether you hold long or short, the experience is very poor.
Now that the shoe has dropped, the reality is:
The mid-to-long-term logic hasn't been disproven by the earnings report, so no need to be completely pessimistic.
But don't expect a single earnings report to trigger a huge, spectacular rally.
There are a lot of profit-taking positions piled up at high levels, and many trapped positions waiting to be freed above, so any slight rebound will see funds cashing out and running.
Most likely, the stock will either:
- Keep oscillating within a range, churning shares back and forth;
- Or see funds fleeing after good news is realized, retesting support again.
Honestly, a reminder: don't get overheated and rush in just because the earnings beat expectations.
The uncertainty around HBM specs remains, and future volatility will only increase.
Especially when trading contracts, be sure to manage your position size carefully; in this kind of high-frequency spike market, stop losses can easily be triggered unfairly.
👉 Just want to ask everyone, are you currently long or short? Do you think storage can still start a new major uptrend? Brothers and sisters, the big coin $BTC is hovering around $78,000 today, with a slight drop of less than 1% in 24 hours, which is a normal breather after last week's sharp surge from $63,800 to $81,200.
It has risen more than 22% this week, so it's normal for short-term traders to take profits; don't panic at every pullback. The key point is that spot ETFs have had net inflows for 7 consecutive days, with $314 million absorbed just on Tuesday, and over $3 billion accumulated in August. BlackRock's IBIT alone took the lion's share. What does this mean? Institutions are not just talking bullish; they are buying with real money, which is completely different from pure leveraged rallies.
The technical side is a bit stretched, with the daily RSI above 84, indicating severe overbought conditions, so high-level oscillation is not surprising. The strong resistance is between $80,000 and $82,500, with short-term support at $76,900 and further down at $75,700. This round of rally from $63,800 to over $80,000 in 21 days was driven by $4 billion worth of short positions being squeezed out, combined with continuous ETF buying—a combination of macro liquidity adding positions and short squeeze.
Whether it can hold above $80,000 next depends on real buying power, not just short sellers being squeezed out. My personal view is that the structure is intact, but chasing highs has average cost-effectiveness; it's more comfortable to consider adding positions after a pullback to key support. Don't forget the August options expiration and Jackson Hole are just around the corner, so volatility will only get more intense. Control your hands and save some bullets; that's better than anything else.$BICO: Short it, wait for the waterfall!
Core reasoning logic is as follows:
1. Token valuation ceiling: 100% full circulation means complete transparency on the supply side, with no expectation gap from future unlocks. Lacking new narratives to bring in external incremental funds, relying solely on speculative trading within the market naturally limits its explosive potential. A 20%-30% rise easily hits resistance levels where major players cash out.
2. Bottom-tier chip structure: According to the "smart money" data in the screenshot, short positions held by major players reach 2.14 million U, while longs are only 1.32 million U. The nominal long-short ratio is as high as 61.41%, and shorts are heavily underwater (-185,000 U), indicating shorts are aggressively holding against the trend; although longs have a high profit ratio (66%), their position size is small, typical of "false strength."
3. Negative fee "trap" mechanism: The current extreme negative fee rate of -1.898% is a "tool" used by major players to lure retail investors into going long. The major players use this high fee subsidy as bait to create a false appearance of market strength, forcing retail investors to chase highs despite high long costs, making them liquidity takers at the peak.
4. Waterfall expectation: The long margin of only 1.32 million U cannot withstand the selling pressure of 100% circulating supply. Once the negative fee harvesting cycle ends (countdown over 5 hours), long funds will be exhausted, and major players will close shorts and aggressively dump, causing the market to quickly reveal its true form and return to its real value range.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 过去一周，比特币的叙事重心正在悄然从价格图表转向资金流向。美国现货比特币ETF在短短五个交易日内净流入超过20亿美元，这是近十个月来少见的密集增持节奏。值得注意的并不是这个数字本身，而是它发生的位置——比特币并非处于深跌后的低点，而是在一轮强劲反弹之后，正逼近关键阻力区域。这种“高位承接”的形态，让市场不得不重新审视机构资金的真实意图。 我们无法知晓每一家基金的具体策略，但资金行为本身已经传递出清晰信号：在价格已经不再便宜的前提下，大型资本依然愿意在此区间加大敞口。这至少说明，当前价位对部分机构而言仍处于可接受的价值区间，或者他们正在为更长周期的仓位布局。相比单日涨跌，这种持续性的流入趋势，往往更能反映专业资金的真实态度。 如果只看K线，市场情绪容易被红绿蜡烛牵引。但ETF流量的意义在于，它提供了一层更冷静的观察维度。假如未来比特币出现回调，而机构流入依然保持韧性，那很可能意味着大资金正利用波动完成吸筹，而非恐慌离场。反过来，如果价格在阻力位反复挣扎，而流入数据同步萎缩，那才是需求动能减弱的真正警示。因此，比起某一天的流入峰值，我更关注的是流量曲线的斜率与持续性。 眼下，8万美元上方区The market these past few days has actually been quite interesting. On the surface, it seems calm, but beneath the surface, the breathing rhythms of different sectors are completely different. Today, I want to share some of my observations on the current market structure, focusing on two easily overlooked dimensions: liquidity and volatility. Let's start with Bitcoin. As the stabilizing anchor of the entire market, its 24-hour total turnover across the entire network has remained stable between 70 billion and 110 billion USD, which speaks volumes. Daily volatility is roughly between 1.5% and 3.5%, and even in extreme news, single-day fluctuations rarely exceed 8%. The advantage of this scale is that when panic selling occurs in the market, Bitcoin tends to absorb the strongest bottom-fishing funds. Its current trend is mostly driven by macro variables such as inflows and outflows from US ETFs, US Treasury yields, and regulatory policies. Events like Nvidia's earnings report, though occasionally causing brief emotional turmoil, basically cannot change the medium-term trend. Ethereum presents a different picture. Its total network turnover is about $35 billion to $50 billion, but intraday volatility is significantly wider, typically between 2% and 5%, and in extreme market conditions, it can even reach 8% to 12%. This high Beta attribute means that when risk appetite rebounds, ETH is more resilient than Bitcoin; But once US tech stocks weaken, the impact is even more direct. Currently, the $2550 area is a key resistance level; if it enters a liquidation-intensive zone, it could further amplify the downward amplitude. Looking further into the middle tier, SOL and ZEC are among those with independent value$AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics): Closed around $113.8 (+0.5%), rising to over $118 in after-hours trading. YTD up more than 220%, 52-week low at $18.5, with a high reaching $233 (in May). Recently pulled back due to a $600 million ATM issuance plan, but Q2 revenue was $192 million (+86% YoY), 800G shipments doubled, Q3 guidance $255-290 million, with a full-year target of about $1.1 billion. Accelerating expansion in Texas, targeting AI data center 1.6T demand, with a year-end capacity goal of 650,000 units per month.
Peer performance:
$LITE (Lumentum) around $939, recently strongly rebounded, clearly benefiting from AI lasers/optical chips, YTD up over 150%.
$COHR (Coherent) around $294, data center business growing rapidly, supported by Nvidia, but with high volatility.
The overall sector is driven by AI computing power optical interconnects (800G→1.6T, CPO), with demand far exceeding capacity, and both Chinese and US supply chains are prosperous. In the short term, watch for dilution from issuance and valuation digestion; mid-to-long term logic remains strong. Focus on expansion implementation! #Lumentum营收翻倍，AI光通信需求延续 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Overnight, the full US July PCE data was released, overall stronger than expected!
PCE year-on-year at 3.7% exceeded market expectations, core PCE year-on-year remained flat at 3.3%, showing no signs of inflation stickiness fading.
Once the data came out, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields both strengthened simultaneously. The market immediately raised the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 42%, bringing back concerns about tightening liquidity. But note, the Fear and Greed Index has already surged to 80, an extreme greed zone, making the risk-reward ratio for chasing $BTC $ETH very poor.
For gold, the data is bearish. London gold briefly fell below $4590 overnight and is now barely stabilizing around $4610. It is difficult for it to rally strongly in the short term; it is more likely to face pressure and fluctuate. Do not blindly chase longs.
Focus on tonight’s official opening of the Jackson Hole annual meeting and tomorrow night’s Powell keynote speech. This is the most important policy guidance window before the September FOMC.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Recently, discussions about Trump-related tokens have become lively again, but behind the hype, there are many signals worth pondering. Some people have shared their short-selling record, speaking with great conviction. Let's break down the information and take a look. The price movement of this token is indeed dramatic. On the day it was listed on exchanges, it surged above $80, then declined steadily over the next year, hitting a low of over $1.3. Recently, due to a piece of false news, the price rebounded from the bottom to nearly $3, making many people think the market had stabilized. But right around $2.9, some traders decisively increased their short positions, even emphasizing their "insight" and believing that coins propped up by sentiment and news have no upper limit to harvesting. At first glance, this sounds reasonable, but on closer inspection, this certainty actually comes with risks. Fake news can instantly drive prices up, indicating market sentiment remains sensitive and funds can exploit the situation at any time. The biggest fear in short selling isn't high prices, but sudden price reversals after all negative news has been released. That trader listed the average price at $2.52, which is indeed much lower than the current price, but only if the price continues to fall as he wishes; otherwise, the floating losses will grow with each rebound. He also posted another short trade, shorting Big Zero Coin, with an average price set at $777. Yesterday, the price dropped from $850, and he breathed a sigh of relief, setting his sights on $650 first, planning to take it step by step. This approach is closer to traditional short selling logic, since Big Zero is an established coin with limited market heat and limited liquidity. But the problem is, the volatility of these coins often depends more on market sentiment, if...$CVX $OKTA
CVX: Current price 2.416, 24h +18.08%, pulled up from 2.28 to 2.491 then retreated, range in the last two hours 2.384—2.457. After a 15-minute spike, volume contracted, fee rate +0.0011%, OI $442,400; more like a pull-up followed by profit-taking, cannot conclude if new longs or short covering. Convex aggregates Curve/Frax liquidity and governance, CVX can be staked for dividends and voting participation. No confirmed recent catalysts, watching 2.384 support and 2.491 volume breakout. Risks include weakening ecosystem fees and thin liquidity spikes.
OKTA: Current price 157.81, 24h +20.86%, intraday 127.35—162.79, after a spike retreated to 153.20—158.64. Fee rate -1.00%, OI $397,900, price rise with extreme negative fee rate looks more like short covering, this is an inference. It tracks Okta Inc. OKX stock perpetual, not a crypto token; the company provides employee, customer, and AI identity security. The company confirmed FY2027 Q2 earnings release on August 26, watch performance, guidance, and US stock spot, cannot attribute this rally to that. Losing 153.20 risks pullback; low OI can amplify slippage. ⚠️
#CVX #OKTA #DeFi #StockPerpetual