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In the past 24 hours, the crypto market continues to show a very clear characteristic: $BTC is still a variable that drives the general sentiment, but the level of reaction of each altcoin group is completely different. Market data on August 27 showed that $BTC is rising slightly, while $ETH, $BNB and especially $SOL have more pronounced gains; $XRP is going in the opposite direction. This shows an important thing: the rise of BTC does not mean that all altcoins are rising, but the flow of money is diverging according to each ecosystem, narrative, and level of risk. Below#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
US July Core PCE rose 3.3% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, with Q2 real GDP revision holding at 1.5%. Although inflation has not worsened, it remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target, and the urgency for rate cuts is once again suppressed by stubborn inflation stickiness.
Tonight, all eyes in the market are on Kevin Warsh's heavyweight debut at Jackson Hole:
Policy weight reshuffle: Between slowing employment and sticky inflation, how highly does the new chair prioritize price stability? This is the key gauge to assess whether September will unexpectedly lean hawkish.
Clear signaling or Tai Chi on rate path: The market urgently needs a clear framework—what conditions will trigger further tightening, and what conditions will open the door for rate cuts.
Global asset pricing reset: If the speech fails to ease divergences, long-term US Treasury yields and the dollar index will continue to tug at high levels, while valuation recovery for gold, US tech stocks, and BTC will still face volatile tests.
Do you think Warsh will send a hawkish tightening signal at this annual meeting, or maintain neutrality to stabilize the market?
$BTC $SPX #FederalReserve #PCE #JacksonHole #Warsh #Macroeconomics
Generate an illustration for this tweet Marvell Earnings Preview: Testing the Quality of the AI "Water Seller"
NVIDIA's better-than-expected earnings have ignited market enthusiasm, and now the pressure shifts to Marvell. As a key player in AI network connectivity chips, its performance will verify whether the AI market can expand from the "compute core" to the "peripheral infrastructure."
Ordinary investors only need to focus on three core indicators:
Data Center Revenue Growth: This is Marvell's lifeline. If custom AI chips and optical interconnect chips maintain over 50% sequential growth, it indicates that major companies are aggressively buying "network cables" and "switches," and AI infrastructure is still in an acceleration phase; otherwise, it may signal inventory reduction or cautious sentiment.
Enterprise Networking and Carrier Business: This traditional segment has been a drag in recent quarters. This time, signs of halting the decline and rebounding must be seen; otherwise, even if data center revenue surges, poor overall revenue will cause the stock price to "die in the light." As long as there is no significant negative growth, combined with a data center boom, it is a solid positive.
Gross Margin and Guidance: AI chips have higher gross margins, so an overall margin increase indicates a higher proportion of high-priced AI products. Also, pay attention to management's guidance for the next quarter and whether they dare to give optimistic forecasts.
Strategy: If all three indicators are strong, consider opportunities for catch-up in the optical module and switch supply chains; if only data center is good, a wait-and-see approach is advised; if guidance is conservative, be cautious of a pullback. NVIDIA has proven there is gold in the "mine," Marvell needs to prove that "shovels" and "transport vehicles" can also sell at good prices. Tonight's/early morning's data is the moment of truth!Today's crypto market is in a pretty clear state: many coin groups are adjusting at the same time, from large-cap, Layer-1, DeFi to meme coins. It's worth noting that this is not just a story of a few tokens. When many assets fall together in a short period of time, the market is often reflecting a general change in risk appetite. And the first variable to look at is still $BTC. 🔴 1 - $BTC declined, but the deeper cause lies in the macro Bitcoin is currently under pressure after failing to maintainLast night, Nvidia's earnings report had only one idea:
AI acceleration + storage shortage + price hikes = storage stocks continue to rise.
Nvidia's "cost" is the "profit" of storage manufacturers.
1. Storage prices are about to rise
NVIDIA has notified major clients that AI server prices will increase by more than 15% next year, mainly because storage prices have gone up again, and NVIDIA can only follow suit.
2. Severe storage shortage
Supply bottlenecks will persist at least until fiscal year 2028.
Next-generation rack storage costs soared from 370,000 to 2 million, up 435%, with market share rising to 25%-30%.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will have already sold out their HBM capacity by 2026.
3. AI is accelerating
Q2 revenue was 96.2 billion, doubling year-on-year, with next quarter's guidance at 108 billion.
Revenue growth guidance for fiscal year 2028 is 70% (analysts expected only 44%) #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配
Gold and Bitcoin are simultaneously attracting capital. Over the past five trading days, ETFs for both have collectively absorbed more than $7 billion, setting a historical record for the same period. BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $1.5 billion, and GLD had a net inflow of $3.4 billion. Both sides are buying—not an either-or choice, but both are needed.
These two assets are telling the same story—the US dollar credit is loosening. Ray Dalio directly advised reducing bond holdings, allocating 10% to 15% to gold, and holding a small amount of Bitcoin. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to its highest since the pandemic, with capital treating both as aligned tools to hedge fiat credit risk.
Here’s my view. The simultaneous strengthening of gold and Bitcoin is more important than how much each individual asset has risen. Capital flowing simultaneously into non-sovereign assets from both sides indicates the market is pricing in the same thing—the loosening of US dollar credit, and US Treasuries are no longer considered "risk-free assets."
Gold is driven by real interest rates, safe-haven demand, and central bank allocations, while Bitcoin is driven by liquidity, ETF buying, and leverage changes. The driving logics are not exactly the same, but both ultimately point in the same direction—the systemic increase in allocation weight to non-sovereign assets.
Continued synchronized inflows on both sides indicate capital is systemically increasing allocations to non-sovereign assets. If divergence occurs one day, that will be the time to reassess. For now, the direction is very clear.
$BTC $BTC #TGABuybacksVsFiscalRisk
This is not a liquidity injection, but an invisible game between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve.
As the U.S. Treasury accelerates its long-term bond buyback program, as the TGA (Treasury General Account) balance drops from 800 billion to 650 billion, and as the market debates whether this is QE or Treasury-led — what we are witnessing is not a simple liquidity operation, but a struggle for fiscal dominance by the Treasury "secretly easing" during the Fed's rate hike cycle.
The Treasury's buyback program is essentially a "reverse bond issuance" — using cash to repurchase issued long-term government bonds. This lowers long-term yields, effectively amounting to implicit easing. The market is underpricing this because traditional analysis frameworks still view monetary policy as the sole variable.
Implications for the crypto market: If the buyback program maintains a scale of $20-30 billion per month, it equates to injecting about $300 billion liquidity into the market annually — enough to offset part of the Fed's QT impact. This is a structural positive for risk assets, but the market has not fully priced it in yet.
TGA buybacks vs fiscal risk, your judgment —
A. Optimistic about liquidity improvement, increase BTC holdings
B. Wait and see, until buyback scale is clear
C. Go long on long-term government bonds, betting on yield decline
👇 Type the letter in the comments!#GoldVsBTCETFFlows
This is not a safe-haven showdown, but a war of asset allocation between "old money" and "new money."
When the gold ETF (GLD) sees a weekly outflow of $1.2 billion, and the Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) sees a weekly inflow of $1.8 billion, and both experience a rare simultaneous price increase but diverging capital flows — what we are witnessing is not a zero-sum asset choice, but a structural shift where "old money" continues buying gold futures, while "new money" begins allocating to Bitcoin through ETFs.
The outflow from GLD does not indicate a bearish view on gold, but rather some investors taking profits at the historical high of $4600. Meanwhile, the inflow into IBIT shows institutions are reallocating part of their "alternative value storage" from gold to Bitcoin — Bitcoin’s liquidity and transparency advantages are gaining recognition from traditional asset allocators.
Implications for the crypto market: If this "gold outflow → BTC inflow" trend continues, it will be the strongest empirical evidence supporting Bitcoin’s "digital gold" narrative. But the key prerequisite is: BTC needs to break above 80K and hold, otherwise the narrative will be temporarily shelved.
Gold vs BTC ETF flows, your call —
A. Follow the capital flow, buy BTC
B. Allocate to both sides to hedge risk
C. Bet on gold’s pullback, short GLD
👇 Type your letter in the comments!#HormuzFlowsVsSanctions
It's not oil price volatility, but the tug-of-war between the “Hormuz Premium” and “Iran Sanctions.”
When Iran conducts live-fire military drills in the Strait of Hormuz, when the U.S. announces a new round of sanctions on Iranian individuals and entities, and when the market repeatedly prices between “sanctions driving up oil prices” and “strait blockade threat premium” — what we are witnessing is not just geopolitical news, but the implied volatility of crude oil options approaching 100%.
The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world's oil shipments. Iran's military drills are seen as an “escalation of bargaining chips” in negotiation strategies, but the market is more concerned about an “accidental misfire” during the drills. Brent crude oil fluctuates between $105-$110, and the “tail risk” priced by the options market is rising.
Transmission path to the crypto market: rising oil prices suppress risk assets through inflation expectations, but crypto’s “safe-haven narrative” may temporarily outperform traditional risk assets during geopolitical risk escalations. Watch whether the short-term negative correlation between BTC and oil prices will break.
Hormuz vs Iran sanctions, your judgment —
A. Buy crude oil futures to hedge inflation risk
B. Hold BTC as a geopolitical safe-haven asset
C. Wait and see, do not bet on geopolitics
👇 Type the letter in the comments!🤖 SoftBank Isn’t Just Buying a Robot Company — It’s Betting on Physical AI. SoftBank is reportedly in talks to acquire a majority stake in 1X Technologies at a valuation of around $6B. What makes this interesting? 1X reportedly received 10,000+ NEO orders, yet hasn’t delivered a single robot to customers yet. That tells you the market is already pricing in the future of humanoid robotics, not current revenue. The bigger signal is SoftBank itself. After its $5.4B ABB robotics deal, this move wouTonight's US core PCE data was fully released, showing overall resilience beyond market expectations and prompting a reassessment of the upcoming rate cut pace. Core inflation did not continue to fall as some hoped, but remained flat compared to last month, while personal consumption expenditures and durable goods orders both slightly beat expectations. Putting these numbers together sends a very clear signal: the intrinsic momentum of the US economy remains, inflation cooling has temporarily paused, and market optimism about rapid rate cuts has naturally been dashed with cold water. For risk assets, this is not exactly good news. The delay in rate cut expectations means the timing of liquidity easing has been extended, making it difficult to expect a one-sided market rally in the short term. In such a macro environment, Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to maintain range-bound fluctuations, repeatedly testing the upper and lower levels rather than finding a clear direction. For ordinary investors, this stage tests patience the most, and it is also the biggest taboo to chase gains and sell losses. The situation facing gold is even more direct. As a product highly sensitive to real interest rates, a decline in rate cut expectations usually means higher holding costs, making it difficult for gold to gain strong upward momentum in the short term. A more likely scenario is pressure consolidation, accompanied by increased volatility. If you blindly enter the market at this time, you may face considerable psychological pressure; it's better to wait and see for clearer macro signals. Of course, data from a single month may not change the long-term trend, but it does remind the market: the last mile of inflation is often more winding than imagined. Next, market attention will turn to the Jackson Hole meeting and Federal Reserve officials$SUI direct conclusion: $SUI continues to decline steadily; it's not a problem with the chain itself. The core issue is the token unlocking selling pressure combined with tightening macro liquidity. No matter how good the technology is, it can't stop the continuous supply of tokens.
The primary long-term weakness of $SUI is the monthly linear unlocking, with early investors and team tokens continuously released every month. The selling pressure is constant, and the buying side struggles to keep up, so the selling pressure will persist for a long time. There is another unlocking window in September.
Secondly, PCE inflation exceeded expectations, delaying rate cut expectations, and the overall altcoin environment is relatively cold. A large amount of capital in the public chain sector is flowing to the SOL ecosystem. Although $SUI has a solid Move technology foundation, its ecosystem lacks blockbuster applications, and on-chain funds continue to shrink, with narrative heat fading.
From a technical perspective, there is a buildup of trapped positions above. Every small rebound triggers selling pressure from those unlocking tokens, resulting in poor rebound sustainability. Until Bitcoin breaks out of its range, mid-sized public chains will find it difficult to have independent rallies.
In terms of trading, don't blindly bottom-fish just because the price has dropped a lot. Focus on whether there is a volume breakout above key resistance. Without a breakout, the risk of steady decline remains.#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Nvidia's earnings blow up the scene! But don't just get excited, this is the "real signal" ordinary people should watch
Folks, Nvidia's Q2 revenue doubled directly, and it rarely forecasted a 70% increase again in fiscal 2028! The data center business is soaring wildly, and AI computing power demand simply can't stop. But note, it even said "delivery is limited by supply capacity" — it's not that no one is buying, it's that they can't produce enough!
The more critical signal is hidden on the software side: Salesforce's AI product annual revenue is approaching $4 billion, CrowdStrike and Synopsys have both raised their expectations. What does this mean? AI is no longer "burning money telling stories," but turning into real cash! The market evaluation logic has changed: no longer looking at who shouts the loudest, but who can turn AI into orders, renewals, and cash flow.
For us ordinary investors, don't just watch whether Nvidia's stock price surges or not, watch whether the "AI monetization chain" is complete. Chips are the starting point, but software, security, and design tools are the key links where profits settle. Marvell is about to release earnings, can the network connection link take over? This will be the touchstone to test whether AI growth can run through the entire industry chain.
Risk warning:
High growth comes with high volatility, do not chase highs or panic sell. Current valuations already reflect optimistic expectations, it is recommended to build positions in batches, control position size, and add more only after continuous performance verification.$SOL spot market is currently caught between the valuation premium from long-term consensus upgrades and the yield decline caused by short-term capital shifting to stablecoin payments.
U.S. stock spot ETF funds have surpassed the $1 billion mark, establishing a risk-hedging baseline for institutional positions, while on-chain RWA market capitalization has reached $2.01 billion, demonstrating a reduced reliance of real settled funds on high-risk appetite.
The core variables driving valuation are prioritized as follows: Alpenglow mainnet deployment progress, high-frequency DeFi liquidity depth, and the transmission of short-term capital risk appetite.
The bullish scenario triggers during the deployment of the Alpenglow consensus upgrade in Q3 to Q4 2026. If transaction confirmation time shortens from 12.8 seconds to 100-150 milliseconds, and block delay remains within the 200 milliseconds required by the Firedancer client, the price will re-anchor upward to the institutionally estimated range of 210 to 250.
The invalidation signal for this upward scenario is that before the consensus upgrade lands, if the mainnet experiences technical failures or high-frequency ecosystem funds redeem early, the long position cluster will be rapidly squeezed out.
The bearish scenario triggers under tightened macro risk appetite and a delayed announcement of the Alpenglow upgrade. At this time, the low-yield mode of stablecoin transfers cannot support the current risk premium, and long positions may be liquidated down to the 60 range.
The invalidation signal for the bearish scenario is that even if macro inflation expectations fluctuate, if on-chain high-frequency DeFi trading volume breaks through against the trend, it will directly erase the valuation discount caused by technical delays.
In the next 7 days, close attention should be paid to the net inflow scale of U.S. stock spot ETFs and the hedging changes in the daily settlement volume of on-chain stablecoins.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估 #JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视Hello everyone, I am Ruyi
Anthropic has thrown out a $30 trillion story. What does $30 trillion mean? It's close to the entire annual GDP of the United States, equivalent to a quarter of the global GDP. It's even larger than the $28.5 trillion TAM when SpaceX went public, and the combined revenue of 191 tech companies in the S&P 1500 index last year was only $2.4 trillion.
But whether this $30 trillion pie can actually be eaten depends on three calculations by the market:
First, can computing power costs be reduced? The capital expenditure for large model training, chip procurement, and computing infrastructure is huge. Wall Street's bet is that as model training and inference efficiency improve, the proportion of computing power and labor costs in total revenue will gradually decrease. But this assumption requires continuous technological breakthroughs to be validated.
Second, can customers continue to pay? The $30 trillion TAM is based on the assumption that AI will replace human work. However, as more companies adopt industry-specific models built on cheap open-source systems, there is great uncertainty about how much market share Anthropic can capture.
The impact on BTC is indirect but cannot be ignored. The market is already discussing the risk of funds flowing from Bitcoin to AI IPOs. Bitwise advisor Jeff Park bluntly stated that Bitcoin is being used as a source of funds to support popular deals like SpaceX and Anthropic that "everyone suddenly must have." #美国核心PCE持平上月, how did Wash-Jackson Hole set the tone of his speech? @币圈超短王马大帅 Volatility and Sharpe Ratio
$BTC volatility is 21.5%, Sharpe ratio 1.92, comfortably profitable on a risk-adjusted basis. $ETH volatility is 44.5%, Sharpe -1.10, meaning it's a losing effort with negative risk premium. July core PCE at 3.3% met expectations, Fed rate hike expectations cooled, liquidity environment favors high-volatility assets, but $ETH has not converted fundamentals into returns. $BTC's low volatility plus positive returns indicate institutional investors holding steady; $BTC ETF net inflows exceeded 2 billion U in August as evidence. $ETH's high volatility shows retail investors are speculating but no trend consensus formed yet.
Capital Attraction Comparison
$ETH cumulative net inflows 729 million U, $BTC only 485 million U, $ETH attracted 50% more capital. $ETH ETF recorded the largest single-day inflow since October. In terms of open interest (OI), $ETH rose from 5.4 billion U to 6.1 billion U, up 13%, while $BTC rose from 7.9 billion U to 8.3 billion U, only up 5%. Smart money is betting on $ETH's recovery rally. However, $BTC's OI has been net outflow in the past two days, $ETH outflow yesterday but inflow of 284 million U today, frequent capital turnover indicates large long-short divergence. Fee-wise, $BTC dropped to 0.0046% with bulls retreating, $ETH returned to 0.01% standard level, more neutral. Today's market main theme: Nvidia's earnings significantly exceeded expectations, with AI and semiconductors once again becoming the main risk appetite drivers; however, US PCE remains relatively hot, and Fed policy risks have not been lifted. BTC/ETH maintain high-level consolidation, gold rebounds again, and crude oil continues to be suppressed by expectations of Middle East negotiations. Asian stock markets have risen for the third consecutive day today, with Nvidia's post-earnings after-hours gains reaching about 4.7%; meanwhile, the US dollar index is around 99.12, and the market is awaiting policy signals from Jackson Hole. ① BTC/ETH: High-level consolidation, capital inflows still provide support Confirmed facts: BTC is fluctuating around $79,000 today. The latest market data is near $78,950; recently, BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows again, with the past round of continuous inflows totaling nearly $2 billion, providing important capital support for this BTC rebound from the lows. ETH also maintains a high-level structure after the recent sharp rise. From a relative strength perspective, ETH still shows some catch-up characteristics during BTC's sideways phase. Analysis and judgment: BTC 🟠 is oscillating with a bullish bias; ETH 🟢 is relatively strong. BTC's first support remains at 77,600–78,000, strong support at 76,500–77,000; on the upside, watch 79,500–80,000 first, with the real breakout confirmation zone still at 80,000–81,200. ETH BTC surged and then retreated, and option expirations further disrupted the market
In the past couple of days, the Bitcoin market has surged and then fallen. Besides profit-taking at high levels, another factor has amplified volatility—the concentrated expiration of options. Right now, bulls and bears are fiercely squeezing at key levels, and the market is being pulled back and forth.
Simply put, options themselves can't directly push or dump the market, but they act like an amplifier. A large number of contracts are settled immediately, with huge strike chips piled up at the 75,000 and 80,000 levels. Market makers have to keep adjusting positions to hedge, and as soon as the price approaches these levels, there are many spikes and back-and-forth sweeps. Right now, the coin price is stuck in the middle, pushing up 80,000 is tightly pressed down, and 77,500 is the key #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest The recent gains have been pretty good, up 58.09% in the past week, with the current price at $0.14+
However, the fiercer the rise, the more you need to watch the moves of the big players.
The venture capital firm Hack VC, this shameless associated address, is suspected of selling $3 million $ENA through Wintermute
4 hours ago Address 0x2a5... 590CF transferred 21.85 million ENA to the Wintermute deposit address through multiple transfers
#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Nvidia truly remains the strict father of AI stocks, leading a group of smaller players in a collective rebound after the market closed
But if you look closely, the initial drop after the earnings came out was the first to turn around, until CFO Kress said during the call that FY2028 revenue is expected to grow by 70%.
Comparing the financial data with previous expectations, it did exceed, but there was no extreme positive news:
Revenue was $96.2 billion, compared to market expectations of about $92.2 billion;
Adjusted EPS of $2.22, expected to be around $2.10;
Data center revenue was $89 billion, compared to an expected $85.1 billion;
Next quarter's revenue guidance is $108 billion, exceeding the publicly available consensus estimate of about $104.2 billion, and does not include any Chinese data center computational revenue #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 earnings once again exceeded expectations: revenue reached $96.2 billion, more than doubling year-over-year; adjusted EPS was $2.22, also beating Wall Street.
Data center revenue hit $89 billion, accounting for over 90% of total revenue. The key point is not just that chips are still selling, but that the software layer is starting to convert installed base into revenue.
Jensen Huang's exact words nailed the logic: AI has reached an inflection point, tokens are already profitable, and computing power equals revenue. The market's past concern was the "shovel-selling cycle peaking"; this earnings report provides counter-evidence that after the shovels are sold, the platform continues to take commissions.
ACIE generated $40.3 billion in a single quarter, soaring 138% year-over-year and up 25% quarter-over-quarter, with growth clearly outpacing hyperscale customers. This is the entry point for software monetization—enterprise deployment, sovereign cloud, NeoCloud; customers are buying not just GPUs, but the entire stack including continuous CUDA optimization, Nemotron models, and the Agent toolchain.
A stronger signal from the earnings call is the opening of distribution channels: AWS is deploying an additional 2 million GPUs and integrating Nemotron into Bedrock and SageMaker; Amazon's warehouse robots will run the full suite of physical AI software including Omniverse, Cosmos, Isaac, and Jetson. Software is no longer just a chip bundling bonus; it is starting to follow cloud and production lines through subscriptions and API calls.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Just glancing at the market, BTC is hovering around $79,000. The August 27 batch of coins performed quite impressively, with several lines worth paying close attention to. $HYPE the real center today, breaking through $83.6 to set a new all-time high, up about 3% in 24 hours. On-chain trading is quite interesting—the suspected a16z institution dumped another 36 million USDC in the past 24 hours to buy HYPE, with a total holding of 4.679 million tokens (about $381 million), an average cost of $65.6, and an unrealized profit of about $74.4 million. On the other side, a whale sold 301,900 HYPE today, cashing out $24.4 million and making over $5.3 million in profit before exiting. Bulls and bears are facing off at the $80 level, with resistance at $82.46 on the upper band and support at $77.37 on the 4-hour chart. Additionally, Hyperliquid just launched AQAv2 on August 26, with about 90% of its revenue going to buy back and burn HYPE, expected to generate $135–$200 million in buying funds annually. The first buyback will only be confirmed on October 3. $TRUMP dropped about 4.5% today, currently around $2.28. On-chain data is not looking good. The largest investor Zhou was recently reported to have six dishonest cases in China involving tens of millions of RMB, and there is also a money laundering case under trial in the UK. Although he spent $100 million on WLFI tokens, this negative news definitely suppresses short-term sentiment. $SNDK closed at $1,499.37, up 1.26%. YearCHIPUSDT: Review of USD.AI narrative, actual business, and meme coin potential.
USD.AI is not about "issuing an AI coin," but about building a computing power asset credit market:
1. Users mint USDai with stablecoins, then enter sUSDai to earn yields;
2. AI cloud providers and GPU operators apply for loans using installed, revenue-generating GPU equipment;
3. The CALIBER framework maps hardware ownership and disposal rights into on-chain certificates, configuring liens, insurance, custody, and default handling;
4. Loan interest, issuance fees, and reserve asset income flow into the protocol and sUSDai yield system;
5. CHIP governs loan admission, interest rates, risk parameters, fee routing, and insurance collateral modules.
Officially, loans typically use a maximum LTV of about 75%-80%, amortized over roughly three years, prioritizing GPUs that are already installed and capable of generating income; CALIBER attempts to make on-chain certificates correspond to enforceable physical property rights. This design addresses the mismatch between traditional bank approval cycles and rapid GPU depreciation, rather than simply betting on GPU price appreciation. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
I find today's market movement even more interesting.
After Nvidia's earnings report was released, the market's feedback was very direct: AI demand is still strong, and storage has clearly become a bottleneck. Nvidia's supply chain commitment jumped from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion, more than doubling, mainly to secure key capacities including memory.
So it's not surprising that Micron, SanDisk, and Hynix all saw varying degrees of gains today. Especially since Nvidia itself emphasized tight memory supply, this serves as a strong fundamental confirmation for the storage sector.
I now feel that the previous round of adjustments was more about valuation cuts rather than logic cuts. The stock price will definitely fluctuate in the short term, but as AI computing power continues to expand, demand for HBM and DRAM is unlikely to suddenly fade.
So regarding the storage sector, I still say: don't be scared off by short-term volatility; the real story may just be beginning. Brothers, I'm bearish on this wave and shorting as well! $BTC can't hold the C80 level, a downtrend has already formed.
Yesterday, Bitcoin hit a high of $81,237 intraday, breaking the 80k mark for the first time in three months. But it was immediately slammed back down, dropping to around $78,000 at one point.
80k is like an iron wall; even if it breaks through, it might not hold! Today, BTC spot/perpetual contract prices are fluctuating between $78,500 and $79,000, with an early dip to $78,296.
The market data says it all.
In the past ten days, Bitcoin rose from $62,800 to $78,900, a 25% increase, marking the best ten-day gain this year. But within 24 hours, about $324 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with over $300 million in long positions wiped out.
More importantly—the market sentiment has turned cold. Santiment data shows the weighted sentiment score dropped to -0.023 on August 26, the first negative value since this rally began. Prices are rising, but sentiment is falling; this divergence often signals that upward momentum is fading.
Why do I insist on being bearish?
First, 80k is a strong ceiling. The $80,000-$82,000 range is a key daily supply zone, with the 50-week moving average around $81,000 forming strong resistance. Bitcoin was rejected at $81,000 and pulled back, testing whether the 24% gain is supported by real buying power.
Liquidity is relatively thin between $80,000 and $82,000, so large orders can trigger very volatile moves.
Second, this rally is driven by short squeezes and lacks sustainability.
Glassnode reports that Bitcoin's roughly 26% rebound since mid-August was mainly driven by record short liquidations, with August 19 marking the largest single-day short liquidation since 2019.
During the same period, BTC futures open interest denominated in coin terms dropped 11%, and perpetual contract funding rates remained neutral overall, indicating no significant new leveraged long positions.
Forced buying can quickly push prices up, but every liquidation-driven buy order closes an existing position rather than creating sustained demand. Once shorts are cleared, the market needs new buyers to keep prices rising.
Third, overbought signals are obvious. The Fear & Greed Index has risen to 83 (extreme greed). The daily RSI is in the 78-81 overbought zone. Prices are far above all short-term moving averages, indicating strong demand for a short-term pullback.
If 80k is rejected again, there is room for another correction. Analysts even warn this could be a trap or lead to a crash down to $45,000.
I'm still holding my short position, opened near 78,340, waiting for it to slowly retrace. If 80k can't hold, the end of the party will be a quiet exit.
Brothers, this short is solid!
$ETH
$SOL
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Institutions have already shown their cards, are you following?
First, let's see to what extent the cards have been revealed. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has had a net inflow of $2.26 billion over six consecutive days, $2.72 billion in August alone, the strongest in 2026. Total assets surged from 76.6 billion in mid-August to 98.56 billion, just $1.44 billion shy of 100 billion. On August 25 alone, 4,284 BTC were bought, with a seven-day total of 26,499 BTC.
And the positions of allocation funds will eventually settle into long-term holders, so today let's see where this batch of long-term capital stands.
Addresses holding coins for over 155 days are considered long-term holders (LTH), the toughest batch of chips in the entire market who have endured the full downturn and haven't sold. Their average cost is now about 50,000, current price is 78,700, with an overall unrealized profit of over 50%.
MVRV rising to 1.25 to 1.5 standard deviations marks historical tops; it reached 2.2 in December 2017 and 1.5 in April 2021. Falling below -1 marks historical bottoms, seen near the green line in 2015, March 2020, and November 2022. This June, this line broke below -1 touching the green line, then reversed upward in the past two weeks, now back to -0.85.
The toughest chips still have a cost basis at 50,000, while the price is already 78,700. Do you understand now? monetization is starting to look less like a single-layer chip story and more like a widening enterprise stack. NVIDIA doubled Q2 revenue year over year and projected about 70% growth for FY2028, even as supply constrained deliveries. Meanwhile, Salesforce AI ARR neared $4B, CrowdStrike delivered record net new ARR, and Synopsys raised its outlook, while slower Okta orders show the trend is not universal.
My read: the strongest signal is not headline growth alone, but AIAfter watching the last candlestick during the night session, I quietly deleted the screenshot of my TRUMP position. This lesson is worth keeping in my notebook. Have you ever had moments where, even though you clearly understood what the market was trading, you still couldn't help but feel the urge to get started? Today, instead of talking about grand narratives, I'll write it as a risk management diary. I spent the whole weekend reviewing the coins I was following and the US stock storage sector, and discovered a subtle pattern: the market's money is always making choices between sectors, rather than blindly throwing money around. First, a conclusive observation: the ranking of strength and weakness this round is very clear: - Risk from low to high is probably the most stable for OKB, followed by SOL; ZEC was pushed high due to ETF rumors but is due to emotional exhaustion; BICO is average; HYPE follows the AI Agent's breath completely; TRUMP is purely an emotional chip with no connection to fundamentals. - If Nvidia's earnings report is tonight's storm eye, the ones most affected are actually HYPE and SOL, because their AI narrative and risk appetite tags carry the heaviest weight. ZEC and BICO will be swept by emotion, but the core of the story will not change. TRUMP and OKB are almost isolated entities, each living in an independent universe. What I really want to say is the strength of the sector; it reveals the smart money's attitude earlier than price fluctuations. Look at the three storage brothers in the US market—SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix—their combined daily trading volume is shocking, but their performance is extremeTether Gold (XAUT/USDT) trades on OKX at $XAUT $4,607.4 (-0.06%), slipping below key moving average levels as it tests support just above local low levels: MA5 ($4,611.9), MA20 ($4,611.9), and MA10 ($XAUT $4,615.1).
Reclaiming $4,611.9 is required to halt immediate downside momentum and launch a recovery toward upper resistance at $4,615.1 and local peak resistance at $4,628.4.
#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #OKX.ai $ETH current market analysis. Overall, $ETH is currently in a strong rebound driven jointly by a "short squeeze" and institutional capital inflows. The short-term technical outlook is bullish but approaching a key resistance zone.
📊 Market status: A battle between short-term strength and resistance
After fluctuating around 2,498-$2,507, the short-term technical signals are as follows:
· Short-term trend is bullish: Daily moving averages show a bullish alignment, ADX trend indicator is about 46.7, indicating a strong upward trend. Technical indicators show prices at 2,536 and $2,553**.
· ⚠️ Overheat and resistance signals: RSI has reached 77.4 (>70 is overbought), indicating a risk of short-term pullback or high-level consolidation. Additionally, the 2,550 range forms a strong resistance band, with a "sell wall" from whales around the 2,650 area.
· Key support: The first support zone below is at 2,400, with stronger support near $2,370 (a break below may trigger massive long liquidations).
🔍 Driving forces behind: More than just a technical rebound
There is deeper logic behind this rally:
· Short squeeze: The market was extremely bearish before, with crowded short positions. As the price rose, shorts were forced to cover (buy back), with $1.13 billion worth of $ETH-related short liquidations in just one day, intensifying the rally.
· Institutional capital inflows: Spot ETFs are the main engine of the rise. On August 26 alone, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of 75,150 ETH (about $184 million), providing sustained buying support to the market.
· Fundamental narrative shift: Network activity has not died down; about $165 billion stablecoins circulate on Ethereum, and L2 network fees have dropped below 2 cents. The ecosystem development logic is shifting from "low fees mean failure" to "low fees promote growth."
📈 Mid-to-long-term perspective: hurdles still to overcome
Although short-term sentiment is hot, analysts' warnings are worth noting: macroeconomic headwinds (such as US stock pullbacks and PCE inflation data) remain a looming threat that could trigger market corrections.
In short, $ETH is at a critical crossroads now: if it can break out with volume beyond 2,823, there is room to advance; if it is resisted and falls back, it may retest support near $2,400. US July core PCE year-on-year 3.3%, month-on-month 0.2%, unchanged for two consecutive months, fully in line with expectations; overall PCE year-on-year 3.7%, unchanged, slightly above expectations.
Inflation has neither continued to decline nor suddenly worsened — this is a "neutral to sticky" report card.
Core PCE has been above the Fed's 2% target for 65 consecutive months. The services side still contributes stickiness, and the decline in goods prices has not fully offset this. Real consumer spending is almost stagnant, yet income continues to grow; neither supply nor demand sides provide evidence that "inflation is dead."
This data comes right on the eve of Jackson Hole. New Chair Kevin Walsh will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday. The nominal theme is "The Impact of Financial Innovation on Payments and Policy," but the market is really focused on the interest rate guidance.
Walsh has deliberately given little forward guidance so far, emphasizing "framing big issues, feeding fewer answers." After the July rate decision, three dissenting votes called for a rate hike, and long-term US Treasury yields rose; the market is growing somewhat impatient with his communication.
The most likely path for this speech is: reaffirming the 2% target has no flexibility, policy remains restrictive, and the option to raise rates is not closed — rebuilding credibility with principled statements rather than directly previewing a rate hike or cut in September.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Do you know how much money $UNI has made since its launch?
UNI has been the top-ranked DEX in the industry for many years, accumulating fees totaling $5.79 billion. Among them:
1. $ETH contributed $4.48 billion
2. BASE chain contributed $591 million
3. $ARB contributed $316 million
4. Robin Hood contributed $107 million
So why has the UNI price been continuously declining, from a high of $44 to around $4 now?
The total supply of UNI tokens is 1 billion, with 109 million tokens burned so far, leaving a total supply of 890 million; the DAO treasury holds 267 million tokens, and the actual circulating market supply is 623 million.
Of the above $5.79 billion revenue, over 90% has been distributed to LPs. Currently, only about 2% of the revenue is used for buyback and burn.
Compared to HYPE and pump projects, UNI is considered a good company, but the current buyback for shareholders is still too low. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
Once again touching the $80,000 mark, I wasn’t simply exhilarated while watching the market.
A large part of this rally’s momentum came from short covering, combined with a rush of spot buying. Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of 1.92 billion, marking the highest single-week inflow in nearly ten months. Big money entering the market definitely gave the price a strong push.
But the higher it goes, the more hidden risks start to show. Many short-term holders have already accumulated substantial profits, and the inflow of funds to platform addresses clearly shows an increasing willingness to take profits. Surpassing 80,000 is just a price milestone; whether it can hold steady is the real key.
This week is packed with macro events: July’s PCE inflation data, the Jackson Hole Fed speech, and employment data revisions—all of which could stir market sentiment.
In my view, whether the rebound can evolve into a new main uptrend isn’t just about breaking through 80,000. The continuation of ETF fund inflows, the strength of spot trading, and the overall market risk appetite—all three must follow through.
What do you all think? Do you believe the $80,000 level can be firmly held this time? Nvidia's earnings report exploded, but $BTC may not follow the rise! Why?
Q2 revenue was $96.22 billion, exceeding expectations;
Adjusted EPS was $2.22, also above expectations;
Data center revenue was $89 billion, a 117% year-over-year increase!
Q3 revenue guidance is directly set at $108 billion, also higher than expected.
The data is indeed impressive, so why didn't the stock take off with such a report? Because the market is no longer satisfied with just beating expectations.
In the past few quarters, Nvidia's performance has been increasingly impressive, but the stock price has still been under pressure afterward. Because for Nvidia now, beating expectations has become the baseline.
There are three key points here:
First, can Rubin smoothly take over;
Second, how long can the huge capital expenditure on AI continue;
Third, will rising storage costs like HBM and DRAM continue to squeeze gross margins.
These are the answers this earnings report provides.
As for BTC, there's no need to try to fit logic based on Nvidia's stock movements.
Because now the correlation between BTC and NVDA is not as strong as before; BTC has its own ETF funds, liquidity, and capital logic.
Moreover, last night the PCE indicated a pessimistic outlook on rate cuts, while today Nvidia stated AI demand is still strong. One is slightly bullish, the other slightly bearish. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
3.3%, as expected.
After the US core PCE data release, the Fed is in a more awkward position.
Inflation hasn't worsened, economic growth is slowing, and core PCE hasn't accelerated,
but 3.3% is still clearly far from the Fed's 2% target.
It's still hard to predict how September will go.
Friday's Jackson Hole speech has become more closely watched
because the market lacks data now, but lacks the Fed's stance even more.
Is the Fed more worried about inflation?
Or are they starting to worry more about employment and economic growth?
If Waller signals a dovish tone, the market might reprice rate cut expectations:
USD and US Treasury yields down
Risk appetite and $BTC up
But if he continues to emphasize inflation stickiness, or even hints that rates need to stay high longer, the market might reprice "higher rates for longer."
Right now for BTC, don't just go bullish because PCE met expectations.
Wait for Friday.
And I'm increasingly feeling:
The market's biggest fear isn't bad data, but ambiguous data with the Fed not clarifying.
That will keep September expectations swinging, causing USD, US Treasuries, and BTC to tug back and forth.
So watch what the Fed says these two days, then see how BTC moves.
Macro news is just a catalyst.
Ultimately, price is decided by how capital prices it. @OKX星球 Regarding the future trend of $SOL, there is currently an interesting "split" in the market: the long-term technical outlook is highly optimistic, but short-term price forecasts are relatively calm, even slightly downgraded. This reflects the tug-of-war between the grand narrative of technical upgrades and the market fundamentals.
📈 Core bullish logic: the shift from "hype" to "utility"
Institutional long-term confidence is mainly based on Solana moving away from a speculation-driven phase toward real applications:
· Nuclear-level technical upgrade: The Alpenglow consensus upgrade is expected to be deployed in Q3-Q4 2026, which can reduce the final transaction confirmation time from 12.8 seconds to 100-150 milliseconds. Combined with the Firedancer client, which already reduced block time from 400ms to 200ms in Q3, this will clear obstacles for high-frequency DeFi and payments.
· Fundamentals have been "reborn": The narrative core is shifting from a "meme chain" to an "institutional chain." For example, the total assets of the US spot Solana ETF have exceeded $1 billion, the market value of real-world assets (RWA) on Solana has reached $2.01 billion, and real economic activities such as stablecoin transfers are becoming increasingly active.
🎯 How do institutions view the price? — Cautious short-term, aggressive long-term
Despite strong long-term logic, institutions are more conservative than expected about this year's price forecasts:
· Standard Chartered Bank: Just lowered the year-end 2026 target price from 250**. The reason is that the network is transitioning from highly volatile meme coin trading to more stable but "slow-earning" stablecoin payments, and this process takes time.
· Meta AI and ChatGPT: Based on recent AI forecasts, the year-end target price is around 210, mainly betting on the value re-evaluation brought by the successful landing of Alpenglow.
· Headwinds: Institutions like Binance expect the overall market progress in 2026 to be "uneven," and if the Alpenglow upgrade fails or on-chain activity shrinks, the price may fall back to the 60 range.
In summary, the future of $SOL is more like a "call option": if key technologies like Alpenglow are delivered on schedule and institutional adoption continues, the long-term value is huge; but in the short term, constrained by market volatility and narrative shifts, it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough all at once. July PCE slightly exceeded expectations, $BTC fell from 81K to 78K. Inflation stickiness hasn't disappeared, and rate hike expectations have risen again.
The data itself isn't explosive, but exceeding expectations is exceeding expectations. The market is repricing the rate hike path, and risk assets fall first as a sign of respect. This rally from 60K to 81K was driven by ETF inflows and short squeezes, not rate cut expectations. The macro headwinds remain, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal.
In the short term, watch if 78K holds; in the long term, wait for Powell's speech to set the direction. At this level, watch more and act less, wait for the wind to come.#BTC surges then falls back, options expiry amplifies key level battle
After BTC briefly broke through the $80,000 mark, the market quickly pulled back and has now returned near the critical battle zone.
Looking back at this rally, data from K33 Research provides a crucial clue: this round of surge saw the largest single-day short squeeze in recorded history. Subsequently, futures open interest dropped significantly, clearly indicating short covering was a major driving force behind the earlier price surge.
At the same time, incremental market signals cannot be ignored. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.92 billion last week, indicating that off-exchange incremental funds have entered the spot market. However, after the price surged sharply in a short time, profit-taking at high levels began to stir, with many holders cashing out gains, adding selling pressure to the upward trend.
An important upcoming date to watch is August 28, when BTC options worth approximately $6.44 billion will expire. A large number of positions are concentrated in the $75,000–$80,000 range, and this massive options expiry is very likely to amplify short-term market volatility.
As the gains from the short squeeze gradually fade, the future market direction hinges on the strength of spot buying support. Whether ETF funds and spot buyers can steadily absorb the selling pressure emerging at high levels will be the watershed in determining if this rally is a new trend recovery or merely a temporary rebound. AI monetization is starting to look less like a single-layer chip story and more like a widening enterprise stack. NVIDIA doubled Q2 revenue year over year and projected about 70% growth for FY2028, even as supply constrained deliveries. Meanwhile, Salesforce AI ARR neared $4B, CrowdStrike delivered record net new ARR, and Synopsys raised its outlook, while slower Okta orders show the trend is not universal.
My read: the strongest signal is not headline growth alone, but AI spending appearing across infrastructure, design tools, and recurring software demand. Marvell now offers a useful test of whether networking can extend that breadth into orders and cash flow. Not advice, just analysis.
#AIMonetizationBroadensThe latest data has not given the market a clear direction, making it harder to predict the Fed's next move. Core PCE was about 3.2% year-on-year, up 0.3% month-on-month; Overall PCE rose year-on-year to 3.6%. Meanwhile, the annualized GDP growth rate for the US in the second quarter remained at 1.6%. Inflation remains sticky, and economic demand has not significantly cooled, making it difficult for the Fed to receive a signal of "trustworthy rate cuts" for now. Market interest rate expectations also experienced brief fluctuations. After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from about 34% to 41%, then fell back to 34%–35%. The market is still pricing in at about a 70% chance of at least one rate hike this year. Therefore, the real focus is on Friday. 👀 Warsh will make his debut as Federal Reserve Chair at Jackson Hole and deliver a key speech at 10 a.m. on Friday. The conference theme is: "Financial Innovation: The Impact of Payments and Monetary Policy." With the advancement of the GENIUS Act and the stablecoin market approaching $320B, the market will closely watch his statements on inflation, financial innovation, dollar liquidity, and future monetary policy. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury plans to expand the scale of long-term liquidity-supported repos, further strengthening market attention on inflation, fiscal deficits, and dollar risk hedging. 📊 Safe-haven funds are flowing into both BTC and gold • August BTC spot ETF net inflows have surpassed $3.2B • Cumulative net inflows have approached $5#黄金ETF大额吸金, how can safe-haven funds reallocate $XAUT In the past couple of days, when I opened the market trading software, gold prices surged again. As of noon on August 27, London gold spot prices were about $4,686 per ounce, COMEX gold futures were $4,684.7, a new high since May; domestically, Shanghai gold Au99.99 was quoted at 999.5 yuan/gram, just one step away from the 1,000-yuan mark. Since August, international gold prices have risen about 14%, heading toward the strongest single month since 1999. But to be clear: although this round of rally is fierce, it is still about 17% short of the historical high of $5,626 at the end of January this year, which counts as a "strong recovery" but not a "new legend." Voices of "hoarding gold" have started rising again in social circles—is it to catch the fast train now or to buy at the top? Why this wave of gains? First, the Federal Reserve's expectations have reversed. The US nonfarm payroll unexpectedly grew by 23,000 in July, while the "small nonfarm" ADP rose only 44,000. Market expectations for further rate hikes cooled rapidly, and the US dollar index fell from 101 to around 99. Gold is the opposite of the dollar; when the dollar loosens, gold prices rise. Second, global central banks are buying real money. According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2026, global central banks net purchased 289 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 62%, setting a new record for the same period; China's central bank has increased holdings for 21 consecutive months. Central banks' gold purchases are "major shareholder buybacks," continuously moving physical gold out of circulation, a very solid bottom. Third, dollar credit revaluation. The U.S. Treasury balance has exceeded $39 trillion, "de-dollar."#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
A first-day trading volume of $14.8 million is not bad for an altcoin ETF, but this number is heavily inflated—ZCSH was directly transferred from a 2017 private trust, managing over $300 million in assets before listing. This is not "new money entering the market," but "old wine in a new bottle."
ZCSH's predecessor was the Grayscale Zcash Trust, established in October 2017, holding about $155 million worth of ZEC by the end of June. On the first day of listing, it held 387,849 coins valued at around $300 million. The $14.8 million trading volume represents only about 0.5% of the existing holdings being traded.
Intraday, it rose over 3.5% at one point but closed down 1.54%. This is a typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario—ZEC had already surged 70% in the past week, reaching an eight-year high of $867, and the ETF launch triggered profit-taking. After listing, ZEC dropped about 8%.
Arthur Hayes called for a $1000 target price last October, but he had already exited after the Orchard vulnerability in June. The 2.5% management fee is ten times that of Bitcoin ETFs; Grayscale itself calls this a "high-risk satellite position."
The ETF is just moving the old trust onto the US stock market, not new funds chasing the rally. Whether ZEC can hold above $800 depends not on the ETF listing as a one-time catalyst, but on whether the privacy narrative can sustain trading volume into the next quarter.$6.4 billion options expiry + nonfarm revision + Walsh speech, this week's volatility won't be small
Three events are converging. On August 28, $6.44 billion worth of BTC options expire, with the largest open interest between 75,000 and 80,000. Both bulls and bears will make their final plays within this range. The closer the price gets to this range, the more intense the volatility caused by gamma hedging and settlement actions will be.
At the same time, the initial benchmark revision for nonfarm employment is released — the previous value was -862,000, and the market expects it might be revised down further. Last year's nonfarm data was repeatedly revised, and the market has been shaken. If this benchmark revision continues downward, the weakness in the labor market will become clearer, which could actually increase rate cut expectations, a positive for crypto.
But the real highlight is Walsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. The PCE just came out, core inflation is still 3.3% with no decline, GDP growth is only 1.5%, and employment data is weakening. How he prioritizes these data points will anchor the September rate decision. If he clearly leans dovish, BTC has a chance to surge to 80,000 again; if he continues to be evasive, the market will keep trading sideways or even pull back.
I haven't changed my position during this period; my bias is bullish but I won't rush in before these three events unfold. Volatility is an opportunity, but the premise is not to get shaken out during the swings.📊
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配
Latest Data
SPDR Gold ETF has recently seen continuous large net inflows, with gold prices holding steady near $4640; $BTC 80572, ETH 2494, SOL 100.6. Some of the risk-averse funds are allocated to physical gold, while some use BTC as digital gold for hedging.
Market Consensus
In the past, risk-averse funds only bought gold, but now institutions are starting a dual-track layout. Scarce inflation-resistant assets are more favored, though it is uncertain whether this enthusiasm will extend to the crypto market.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Essentially, concerns about US dollar debt and inflation are rising, and funds are engaging in "currency depreciation trades." Gold is the traditional safe haven, $BTC is a highly elastic alternative; gold seeks stability, while the crypto space chases returns. However, macro uncertainties remain, and if the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance, both asset types are prone to short-term sell-offs.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally inclined to a gradual bull market return, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
Gold strengthening is a positive sentiment for crypto but cannot be directly taken as a guarantee of price increases. Do not blindly increase positions based on this news; hold existing positions well and continue to closely monitor volatility from the Jackson Hole speech.#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
NVIDIA's earnings far exceed expectations! The AI dividend officially spreads from hardware to software
With the release of the Q2 earnings report, NVIDIA once again delivered a market-shaking performance.
The earnings data shows NVIDIA's Q2 revenue doubled year-over-year, with the data center business maintaining rapid growth, and it rarely provided a forward-looking guidance of about 70% revenue growth for FY2028. Behind these impressive results, production capacity bottlenecks remain an unavoidable constraint, as strong market demand is currently limited by the available delivery and supply capacity.
The market trend is also undergoing a critical shift. In the past, capital chased the AI track simply based on whether companies had AI business layouts; now the evaluation standard has switched: the core measure of value is whether AI technology can truly be converted into real orders, user renewals, and positive cash flow.
This story of profit realization no longer belongs only to chip hardware manufacturers.
Salesforce's AI products approach $4 billion in annual recurring revenue; CrowdStrike's new annual recurring revenue hits a historic high; Synopsys raises its full-year performance forecast; a host of software companies are entering the AI revenue realization phase. The AI return dividend is successfully extending from the GPU hardware side to the enterprise software side comprehensively.The Asia Bitcoin Conference is in full swing
"Consumption has stopped, inflation hasn't come down," will Warsh support a rate hike on Friday?
On the evening of August 26, the US July PCE data was released — year-on-year 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Fed's 2% target. Core PCE year-on-year was 3.3%, also stubbornly not falling.
After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from 36% to 42%-44%. The dollar posted its largest gain in nearly four weeks. The three major US stock indexes all plunged.
Just one day before the PCE announcement, BTC had just touched $81,237, breaking $80,000 for the first time since May. It rose from $62,800 to $78,900 in ten days, a 25% increase, marking the best ten-day gain since 2026.
Then what? An inflation report wiped out about $2,000 of Bitcoin's gains within hours.
Currently, BTC is struggling around $78,000.
Breaking down the "two extremes" of the data truth
🔥 The hot side (inflation):
PCE year-on-year 3.7%, 65 consecutive months above 2%
Core PCE year-on-year 3.3%, also stubbornly not falling
Excluding housing service prices, prices rose faster than in June
🧊 The cold side (economy):
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending — zero growth
Real personal consumption expenditure flat month-on-month
Real income year-on-year rose only 0.2%, after several months of negative growth [data]
In plain language:
Five years of cumulative price increases have completely eaten away Americans' purchasing power. They have no money left, but prices keep rising.
The New York Times gave a restrained comment: "The stubborn US inflation problem neither worsened nor improved in July."
But "not improving" itself is the worst news.
💊 This is what the crypto market fears most — the embryo of stagflation
Don't tell me "Bitcoin is an inflation hedge."
In a stagflation environment, Bitcoin is neither gold nor a tech stock.
Why?
The Fed cannot cut rates — inflation at 3.7%, far from the 2% target. At the July meeting, three officials voted against holding rates steady and advocated for a hike. Traders have fully priced in a rate hike before year-end.
The economy can't hold up — zero growth in consumption, income barely rising. Q2 GDP at 1.5% looks okay, but it's all propped up by AI chip imports, which alone cut 1.64 percentage points from imports.
Bitcoin is caught in the middle:
Tell the "inflation hedge" story? Rate hike expectations weigh on you
Tell the "risk appetite" story? The economy is cooling
Tell the "digital gold" story? In the past two years, it has followed the Nasdaq, which follows liquidity
The Fed won't cut rates, liquidity won't loosen, Bitcoin is a sandwich cookie — inflation pressure on valuation from above, economic collapse unsupported from below.
Bitcoin's rise from $62,800 to $81,000 was driven by liquidity expectations from the Treasury's expanded bond repurchase.
But once the inflation data came out, everyone's attention immediately returned to whether the Fed would hike rates.
Your rise depends on others' liquidity operations, but your pricing power is in the Fed's hands.
This is not a bull market, it's a borrowed celebration.
Bitcoin rose 25% in ten days, but market sentiment turned negative on the day prices peaked. Even those pushing the price up felt uneasy.
🎯 Now everyone is waiting for one person — Kevin Warsh
On Friday, Fed Chair Warsh will deliver his first major speech since taking office at Jackson Hole.
This is his first Jackson Hole appearance since his May appointment.
What does the market want? One answer:Brothers, BTC hit $81,272 today, hitting a three-month high, then quickly pulled back to consolidate near 78,872. First surge, then pull back—a classic resistance level game scenario. Regarding the 81K pullback The early morning rally was logical: a weaker dollar, the US Treasury expanding long-term Treasury buybacks, and policy signals from the White House crypto summit pushed the price above $80,000. But it quickly pulled back—the 4-hour RSI surged above 71, indicating severe short-term overbought and profit-taking began to be realized. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the seventh consecutive day, with BlackRock IBIT attracting $284 million in a single day, accounting for over 90% of total inflows. ETF net assets are approaching $100 billion, with $3.03 billion flowing in since August. But a more subtle signal comes from on-chain. SOPR once rose to 1.48, and long-term holders are cashing in gains at higher profitability. Coinbase's premium remains negative (-0.015), and US investors' buying interest has yet to recover significantly. ETFs are buying, on-chain selling is — two forces are facing off near 80,000. ETFs represent continuous institutional inflows, while on-chain chips are cashing out at high levels. Whose strength is greater will determine whether 80,000 is support or a ceiling. Where is the technical situation? The daily chart still maintains a bullish structure, but recently several candlesticks have narrowed and upper and lower shadows have lengthened, indicating divergence between bulls and bears near 80,000. The 4-hour chart is fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000比特币重新站上八万美元关口，市场情绪肉眼可见地回暖，但若把这轮反弹简单归结为“美联储要降息”，恐怕会错过更关键的线索 🧐 利率决议当然重要，但它只是流动性拼图里的一块。真正决定比特币走向的，是整体流动性的松紧，而非某一次议息会议的靴子落地。换句话说，市场交易的不是“降息”这个事件，而是资金环境是否真的在转向宽松。 眼下更值得盯住的两个指标，一是美债收益率，二是美元指数 💵 收益率下行意味着持有无风险资产的吸引力下降，资金才有动力向外寻找更高弹性的去处；美元走弱则相当于给以美元计价的加密资产提供了顺风。两者叠加，才是比特币能否站稳八万、甚至继续上探的真正土壤。 从盘面看，比特币突破八万带有一定情绪驱动成分，但若后续收益率与美元没有配合，这轮上涨的持续性就要打上问号。反过来，如果流动性预期持续改善，那么当前的价位或许只是中场，而非终点。 对于普通投资者而言，与其盯着单日涨跌或某条宏观新闻做决策，不如把视野拉长，观察收益率曲线、美元走势以及央行资产负债表的边际变化。这些慢变量，往往比快消息更能说明问题 🌊 需要提醒的是，宏观逻辑只能提供背景板，不能替代风险管理。市场永远存在预期差，任何🌅 8/27 Early Morning Market Report | NVIDIA Earnings Are Out NVIDIA’s latest earnings gave the market a mixed signal. 📊 Revenue guidance: $108B ±2%
📊 Analysts’ average expectation: $105.2B
📊 Gross margin: around 74% The guidance beat the average forecast, but it fell short of the more aggressive $110B+ expectations some traders were looking for. The initial after-hours reaction told the story: NVIDIA shares dropped roughly 3% before recovering. My takeaway? Good numbers, but not explosive en