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Crude oil and long-term US Treasury yields falling have driven a recovery rebound in US stocks and $QQQ, with the current structure classified as a position adjustment on the eve of macro events. Overall market volume has shrunk by 12.7% compared to the 20-day average, the S&P 500 rose 0.32% but the equal-weight index fell 0.09%, with only 207 constituent stocks rising, and gains concentrated among the leaders. Under the triple pressure of PCE data, Nvidia earnings, and the central bank annual meeting, US stocks and rate assets currently lack the foundation for a trend breakout. If heavyweight earnings reports and data far exceed expectations, a volume breakout in US stocks and a simultaneous strengthening of the equal-weight index would confirm the continuation of the trend.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Tonight at 8:30 PM, the July PCE will be released. For BTC and ETH, what really matters tonight is not the data itself, but whether it will change the market's expectations for the Fed's subsequent policies.
I simply divide the outcomes into three scenarios: If the core PCE basically meets expectations, BTC and ETH will most likely continue to fluctuate, with funds waiting for Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday; if it is significantly below expectations, inflation cools down, US Treasury yields fall, BTC has a chance to challenge 82,000, and ETH looks at 2550-2600; conversely, if the PCE exceeds expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, BTC will focus on support at 75,500-76,300, and ETH will also be under pressure.
So even if the data is positive, don't rush to chase; you can take profits in the short term. Spot markets don't need to be scared by one data point; the real show is still Powell's statement on Friday. PCE is just a prelude; policy expectations are the direction.
$BTC $SOL $ZEC #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold?
Key points to know about Bitcoin's subsequent trend!!! @OKX中文 @OKX星球
1. July PCE is the short-term key: If PCE inflation exceeds expectations, the September rate hike expectations will heat up, strengthening the USD and US Treasuries, which is bearish for Bitcoin; if data meets or falls below expectations, it will only provide limited support, and the high interest rate environment is unlikely to change. AI costs, stock market management fees, and Middle East energy are potential inflation risk factors. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
2. Jackson Hole Symposium: The Fed Chair's speech will determine mid-term volatility; a hawkish stance will suppress Bitcoin, while a neutral stance will maintain consolidation. Institutional baseline judgment is that a rate hike in September is unlikely but the possibility remains. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
3. End of September PCE statistical revision: Historical inflation data will be revised retrospectively, disturbing monetary policy expectations and causing additional Bitcoin volatility.
4. Medium to long-term pressure: AI-driven price increases and geopolitical energy cost hikes will extend the Fed's high interest rate cycle, suppressing Bitcoin's upward potential.
5. Baseline scenario: If data is moderate, Bitcoin will mainly consolidate, but risks of decline from inflation exceeding expectations and hawkish central bank remarks remain. $OKB's trend—I’ve been watching it all day, and my heart has been on a bit of a roller coaster. The 24-hour low hit 107, now it’s pulled back up to 114.8, with a trading volume of only 13.7 million. Honestly, that volume is not enough to be convincing.
Let me break down what I see in the market. The 107 level is exactly the lower boundary of the consolidation range from a few days ago. It dropped to this point today but didn’t break through, then slowly bought back up, indicating some capital is quietly accumulating at the bottom, but the buying isn’t aggressive—more like a stealthy entry. Now at 114.85, it’s right at the mid-level resistance of the recent downtrend. The first hurdle above is 115-116, and beyond that, 120 is a clear strong resistance. Without volume expansion, it’s hard to push through these levels.
I checked the OKB order book on OKX; the order depth is a bit thicker than yesterday, but large orders are still sparse. A 13.7 million trading volume for $OKB is just enough for a few big players to flip some hands back and forth. To drive a decent rebound, the volume needs to at least double. So my current stance is: a rebound is possible, but don’t expect to get rich overnight.
I previously added a small base position around 105, and I don’t plan to move that. The logic remains the same: the OKX ecosystem supports it, with buybacks and burns, Launchpad, and fee discounts—these are solid fundamentals that give confidence to hold long-term despite short-term fluctuations. For short-term, I’ve added some positions and will be more flexible. If it pushes up to 115-116 without volume expansion, I’ll reduce a bit first and consider buying back near 110 on a pullback. If it breaks and holds above 116 with volume, I’ll add more and decide whether to exit near 120.
Conversely, if it can’t get past 115 and falls below 110, I won’t panic. I’ll keep the base position and cut losses on short-term trades as needed, not stubbornly holding. The advantage of OKB is that you can hold through dips, unlike air coins where the bottom is unknown.
At this point, I don’t recommend chasing if you’re empty-handed because the upside space isn’t open and the risk-reward is average. If you really want to participate, try a light position on a low-volume dip near 110-111, set stop loss below 108, and target 116-118—that’s more cost-effective.
Lastly, a side note: every time OKB drops, the community starts complaining; when it rises, people shout “take off.” I’ve held OKB for many years and am used to this. Platform tokens don’t surge like altcoins; they’re more like a marathon. Short-term speed doesn’t say much.Bitcoin surged to $81,270 intraday yesterday, soaring 24% in a week, marking the best performance since 2023. The market greed index hit 80, indicating extreme greed. But at this moment, DeepSeek's data is even more explosive — revenue for the first 7 months reached 475 million, 10 times last year's total; API business gross margin is 82.9%, overall gross margin 44.6%. The most impressive is that their V4-Pro peak output price jumped from $0.87 directly to $3.96. Where does this confidence come from? AI infrastructure investment skyrocketed from 1.2 billion last year to 11 billion in the first 7 months.
Qihang's view is simple: the AI computing power track is replicating the logic of the 2021 DeFi Summer. DeepSeek is valued at 500 billion, with an IPO planned in Shanghai next year. This is not just an AI circle matter — computing power equals power, power equals narrative, narrative equals liquidity. Bitcoin's breakthrough past 80,000 is backed by the US Treasury's bond repurchase easing + Trump's push for the Clarity Act, but the next narrative to take over is likely the AI x Crypto track.
What should retail investors do? Don't chase the high Bitcoin price; watch for support at 78,000 on pullbacks. Focus on foundational infrastructure projects combining AI + blockchain, such as computing power leasing and decentralized inference — these directions could be the engine for the next major upward wave.
Which track do you think this AI narrative will propel? Let's discuss in the comments. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #AnthroZEC at $790, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: ETF launched, surged then pulled back, retail investors panicked.
In the past week, ZEC surged from 570 all the way to 883-888, hitting an eight-year high, the whole network celebrating "the spring of privacy coins has arrived." Then on August 25, Grayscale ZCSH officially debuted on NYSE Arca, and that day it immediately dropped sharply, hitting a low of 754, now struggling at 790.
A typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario.
First thing: The ETF is here, but the 2.5% fee rate tells you institutions aren’t that enthusiastic.
The world’s first ZEC spot ETF, with about $310 million AUM, holding 390,000 ZEC. Sounds like great news?
But look closely at the fee: 2.5%. BTC ETFs usually charge 0.2-0.4%, this is 5-10 times more expensive. Even Grayscale itself lacks confidence to attract large-scale institutional funds, so they rely on high fees to make money first. The first-year management fee flows back to the ecosystem for marketing—translated: afraid no one will buy, so they use money for advertising.
Classic pattern: rush to accumulate before ETF launch, surge then pull back after launch.
Second thing: NU7 voting is triggering an even bigger bomb.
The token holder vote started around August 25, topics include: whether to adjust the issuance mechanism, whether to weaken or cancel the traditional halving, and switch to a smoother issuance curve.
Only shielded ZEC spendable in the Ironwood privacy pool has voting rights, rumored threshold is around one million coins.
If passed: miner security budget improves, but breaks the "BTC halving benchmark" narrative.
If not passed: status quo maintained, but miner revenue pressure continues.
Third thing: derivatives overheating to a dangerous level.
Perpetual/futures open interest soared from 960 million to 1.8 billion in one week, nearly doubling. Positive funding rates indicate longs are crowded to suffocation.
If BTC retraces or macro news turns negative, ZEC’s damage will far exceed spot price drops. The more crowded the longs, the more brutal the stampede.
Long vs short, you decide.
On one side:
- The world’s first ZEC spot ETF is listed, institutional channel opened
- Ironwood upgrade launched, supply verifiable, trust restored
- Shielded supply 25%-31%, actual circulating supply compressed
- From 570 to 888, main uptrend volume exploded
On the other side:
- ETF launched then dumped, 2.5% fee exposes limited institutional enthusiasm
- NU7 vote may rewrite halving narrative, huge uncertainty
- Open interest doubled to 1.8 billion in a week, longs crowded
- Daily RSI still above 70 overbought, moving averages too far apart
Resistance above: 810-830 → 850-870 → 883-888 (eight-year high)
Support below: 780-790 (weak) → 750-765 (first lifeline) → 720-730 → 650-680
Daily close below 730 ends main uptrend. Weekly close below 700 signals mid-term weakness.
Trading strategy
For existing longs (cost below 720):
Reduce 1/3 to 1/2 above 830, lowering cost to below 750.
For existing longs (cost 780-820):
Reduce half at 790-810, keep a base position targeting 850, stop loss at 748.
For empty positions wanting to go long:
Do not chase at 790. Wait for a pullback to 750-765 with hammer/volume spike, stop loss 738, target 810-850. Or wait for daily to stabilize above 830 before chasing on the right side.
For those wanting to short:
Watch for long upper shadows with volume contraction at 808-828, light short with stop loss 848, target 765-730. If 888 is reclaimed with volume, exit immediately.
Position rules:
Single-side position no more than 20% of principal, leverage within 3x. High volatility assets + crowded contracts + macro window, default to reduce leverage.
ZEC now is like Coinbase on its IPO day—
Everyone thinks "ETF listing = immediate surge," but it surged then pulled back, retail chasing at the peak, smart money waiting at the bottom.
Those chasing at 880 and those entering at 570 see the same ZEC, but completely different worlds.
This market never lacks opportunities, it lacks patience.
What is your ZEC cost?
At 790, are you chasing or waiting?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 BTC retreated after hitting 81270, testing the strength of the pullback
📊 Market Analysis:
BTC surged to 81270 before falling back to 78762. Last week's 23% rally was mainly driven by the US Treasury Secretary's debt repurchase doubling + short squeeze. The daily RSI is at 82, indicating overbought conditions, making a short-term pullback almost inevitable.
📈 Trading Insights:
The rally driven by forced liquidations is unlikely to sustain; the key is whether spot buying can take over. The ETF weekly net inflow of 1.92 billion is a positive signal, but if the pullback shows increased volume without recovery, caution is warranted.
⛏️ On-Chain Data:
BTC balances on exchanges continue to decline, with whales withdrawing coins. Short-term holders' MVRV has risen to 1.15, approaching the 1.2 profit-taking threshold. Stablecoin inflows have not significantly increased, indicating slow new money entering.
📝 Market Commentary:
Currently, the market is driven by "news flow + short squeeze," not a full return of new liquidity. It's advisable to watch more and act less before PCE and Jackson Hole events.
📈 Key Levels:
🟢 Support: 77800-78500
🔴 Resistance: 80000-81270
⚠️ Risk Level: 77000
🧠 My Approach: Hold the base position; add more if 77800 stabilizes or there is a volume breakout above 80000. September is usually the weakest month, so position management is more important than directional calls. BTC Breaks 80,000: Is the Bull Market Truly Starting, or Is It Another "Wolf is Coming"?
This rally is indeed stronger than expected.
A few days ago, the market was still debating whether 76,000 could hold, but the price stopped falling and rebounded directly at 77,800, climbing all the way back above 78,000 without even a decent pullback.
On August 25, BTC peaked at 81,237, returning above 80,000 after three months, with a weekly gain of over 20%, showing very strong momentum.
But this rise is not just a short-term short squeeze.
On one hand, shorts were heavily liquidated, with over a billion dollars in short positions cleared in a short time;
On the other hand, and most importantly: spot institutions are genuinely entering the market.
The US stock BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, the strongest in nearly ten months, with BlackRock continuously accumulating, indicating a very solid capital base.
Combined with weakening US Treasury yields, a retreating dollar, and gold hitting new highs, the macro environment is fully supporting risk assets.
However, to be honest: breaking through does not mean fully holding the ground.
80,000 is a long-term strong resistance level, with multiple historical rejections after rallies. Whether the bull market continues depends on two points:
1. Whether ETF funds can keep flowing in steadily, rather than in pulses
2. The Federal Reserve’s stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will determine short-term monetary policy expectations
The market also clearly shows capital divergence:
BTC is holding new highs steadily, but second-tier coins like ETC are pulling back more noticeably.
This is a typical early bull market characteristic: capital clusters around the leaders, not a broad, chaotic rally.
Three clear scenarios going forward:
- Strong continuation: holding above 80,000, fully opening the upside space
- Most likely consolidation: range-bound between 76,000–82,000, digesting profits
- Weak pullback: capital outflow plus macro headwinds, falling back below 75,000, just a rebound, not a reversal
Various on-chain indicators and institutional sentiment all point to the early stage of a bull market.
But I remain rational: bull markets don’t rise straight up, rallies never mean stability, and true trends are confirmed by pullback support.
Short-term key support: 79,000–80,000
Holding this range looks toward 83,000 resistance; breaking below means continuing to watch for consolidation.
At the 80,000 mark, the real battle between bulls and bears is just beginning.
Don’t get greedy or speculative; follow the trend and wait for certainty.
$BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
Damn! The US thinks that adding more sanctions can strangle Iran, but Iran counterattacks by holding the Strait of Hormuz hostage to the world!
Washington just hit hard, blacklisting Iran's digital currency, gold, shipping, aircraft, and technology all at once, naming over 60 entities, not even sparing the biggest exchange bosses. Bassent is shouting "economic isolation," aiming to completely choke Iran's finances.
Iranian advisors and the deputy foreign minister directly stated: Want the strait to reopen? First settle the debts and blockades in Lebanon and Yemen, otherwise no deal.
But the market isn't buying it. Oil prices are falling instead of rising, and risk premiums have been wiped out. Oman and Iran have already set up a temporary joint shipping channel, mine clearance is on the table, and Qatar is shuttling to push negotiations.
Everyone is betting that diplomacy will land first; sanctions are just background noise. Once the strait is open, the energy panic will immediately calm down, inflation expectations will ease, and stocks and crypto can have a short-term boost.
Conversely, if sanctions really choke off Iran's oil exports and cross-border payments, energy prices and dollar liquidity will have to be re-evaluated together. Bitcoin faces pressure from both sides: safe-haven funds might flow in, but if liquidity tightens, it could be hammered—it's a matter of which side moves first.
In the medium term, it still depends on whether the strait can truly reopen; that will be the real strong positive. Right now, the market is all betting on negotiations landing first; no matter how harsh the sanctions, oil prices just aren't buying it, and risk assets are still holding up.🧭 Uncle 24h Radar｜8.26: BTC failed twice to break 81K, retail investors are going long at the most dangerous position
BTC pulled up to 80,742 during the Asian session today then fell back to 78,981 (-2.15%), touching 81K twice in two days and failing both times.
⚠️ Retail long-short ratio rose from 0.937 to 1.0133, retail investors kept adding longs in the 79K-81K range, but the price dropped instead of rising—a typical distribution pattern of strong hands selling off.
🔥 $TMX +186% (King of Alpha), but the ecosystem is bleeding, $牛来 -9.54%, siphoning effect worsens.
SOL lost 100 again (currently 96.94), $STX fell back to 0.28.
🎯 Tonight at 20:30 PCE sets the direction. Below expectations → break through 81K; above expectations → 77.8K in danger.
Control all positions with stop losses before 20:30. Wait for the data to land before making moves. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 A record headline can still disappoint when the mechanism is unclear. Samsung's KRW90T-KRW110T 2026 shareholder-return plan was followed by an 8.7% share decline, while the KOSPI fell 3.12%, suggesting investors are assigning more value to execution than to the aggregate commitment.
Only about KRW30T in Q3 cash dividends is clear. Without firm buyback and cancellation details, the market cannot yet judge the impact on share count or per-share value. My read: confidence may depend on whether Samsung can define a credible balance between distributions, cancellations and AI expansion, especially beside SK Hynix's explicit approach.
Not advice, just analysis.
#SamsungPayoutSelloffThe current market is a typical "early bull market consolidation shakeout" pattern, with several details worth noting:
1. Mainstream coins outperform the broader market, capital begins to overflow
ETH has been continuously strengthening against BTC for a week, and the leading coins in the DeFi and Layer2 sectors have averaged gains of over 15% in the past 3 days, indicating that capital has spilled over from Bitcoin's one-sided trend and started to spread to mainstream sectors. Sector rotation has already begun. However, it should be noted that small coins are mostly experiencing "one-day tour" trading without sustained profit effects, indicating that capital is still in a cautious trial-and-error phase and it’s not yet a widespread rally.
2. Bullish momentum is weakening, highs are gradually moving lower
Bitcoin's highs over the past three days were $81,023, $79,970, and $78,982 respectively, with each high lower than the previous one. However, the lows have not effectively broken the $78,000 support level, indicating heavy selling pressure above and strong support below—a typical high-level consolidation digesting profit-taking. Open interest (OI) in the futures market remains at a historical high of $17.8 billion, showing both bulls and bears are leveraging to bet on direction. Subsequent spikes to trigger stop losses will become common, so don’t set stop losses too tight or you risk precise liquidation by market makers.
3. Whales and retail investors operate in opposite directions
On-chain data shows that in the past 7 days, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 12,000 BTC, while retail addresses holding less than 0.1 BTC have cumulatively reduced holdings by 37,000 BTC. This is a typical "retail can’t hold chips, whales accumulate against the trend" scenario. This also explains why every dip has support and every rise has selling pressure—whales are rotating positions during consolidation, shaking out retail chips.
📰 Key news impacting the market
The core driving logic of this rebound still exists but has been partially priced in:
1. Regulatory optimism cools down
The previously expected US CLARITY Act implementation may be delayed until mid-September. The positive impact has already been reflected in this 14% rebound, and without further unexpected policies in the short term, the market naturally struggles to rise.
2. ETF inflow slows down
Bitcoin spot ETFs have had a net inflow of $1.27 billion in the past 3 days, slower than last week's daily average inflow of $800 million, but still positive, indicating institutional long-term positioning logic remains unchanged, though short-term eagerness to chase highs is weak.
3. Macroeconomic uncertainty persists
The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has dropped from 68% last week to 42%, and the US dollar index has rebounded for 3 consecutive days, suppressing risk asset valuations. This is a key reason why Bitcoin has struggled to break through $80,000.
⚠️ Key points for subsequent operations
At this position, avoid blindly chasing highs or shorting easily. Focus on two core levels:
● Support: $78,000 is the lifeline of Bitcoin’s current rebound. If it breaks effectively (4-hour close below $77,500), it indicates the start of a short-term correction. The next support is at $75,000, possibly even retesting the previous platform at $72,000.
● Resistance: $80,000 is a strong short-term resistance. If it breaks out with volume and holds, it means the shakeout is over, and the next target is $85,000.
● Sector opportunities: Focus on opportunities in ETH and the Layer2 sector. The ETH/BTC rate has already broken out of a nearly 3-month consolidation range, showing strength relative to the broader market. The Ethereum Cancun upgrade expectations will gradually ferment, likely outperforming Bitcoin in the upcoming market.
Finally, a reminder: This article is only an objective market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; be sure to manage your positions well, avoid excessive leverage, don’t get shaken out by short-term volatility, and don’t chase highs impulsively. $BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 The US, Iran, and Russia are taking frequent actions, actively promoting positive developments in the situation!
1. Iran has disclosed for the first time the specific structure of the temporary route. The new temporary channel is 7 miles wide, with the section entering the Persian Gulf passing through Iranian waters, and the exit part of the route also passing through Iranian waters. The new route is basically under Iran's main control.
2. The US has begun to restore the dispatch of diplomatic personnel to the Middle East. Diplomats from Middle Eastern countries and their families can return to the region, which can be seen as a military de-escalation.
3. Russian sources say that the US and Iran have reached a consensus on a ceasefire agreement. This news alone is not highly credible, but combined with another report that the CIA director secretly visited Russia yesterday, during which Ukraine temporarily stopped attacks on Russia.
Combining these two pieces of news greatly increases the credibility of the Russian information. Next, it depends on the specific dynamics between the US and Iran.
Stage summary:
The energy market has already accelerated pricing based on the current positive developments. International crude oil and US oil have further fallen to critical points. Going forward, it remains to be seen whether the US and Iran will issue official announcements to confirm Russia's statements.
It is worth mentioning that, according to data websites, although the situation has improved, the navigation data for the Strait of Hormuz yesterday is still not ideal. The temporary strait between Iran and Oman is basically under Iran's main control, which may increase the difficulty of US recognition and may also cause continued disputes over the strait between the two sides. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC has already fallen back below 80000 USD, with the spot price fluctuating around 79000 USD, indicating that this upward breakout has not yet held.
This is actually more worth paying attention to than a simple rise.
Because BTC's rapid rise from a low level is driven by two forces: on one side, spot ETF funds warming up, with continuous net inflows earlier; on August 24, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a single-day net inflow of about 338 million USD; on the other side, after the price broke through a key level, short covering further pushed the market upward.
The problem lies here.
ETF fund inflows mean someone is genuinely buying, but the rise caused by short covering may not be sustainable. When BTC surged above 80000 USD, short-term profit-taking began, and 80000 USD immediately turned from a breakout point into a resistance level.
Moreover, the latest ETF fund data is also worth noting: inflows are not continuously increasing; recent statistics have shown single-day net outflows.
So personally, I think we can no longer simply say "BTC breaks through 80000 USD and immediately starts a new round of rally."
A more accurate statement would be: BTC attempted to break through 80000 USD, but the first time it did not hold.
The most critical thing next is not to keep guessing whether it will rise or fall today, but to watch the strength of this pullback.
If BTC only falls back to fluctuate around 79000 USD, then quickly stands back above 80000 USD, and ETF funds resume inflows, this would look more like a normal consolidation after a breakout. After all, a rapid price rise in a short time naturally leads to profit-taking.
But if 80000 USD clearly becomes resistance again, with each rebound being suppressed, plus continuous ETF fund outflows, then this rally needs to be reassessed. By then, the previous rapid rise might have been more driven by funds and short covering rather than a genuine new trend opening.
I've always thought the biggest fear in trading BTC is getting excited at a breakout and panicking at a drop.
The 80000 USD level is now very clear: the first breakout failed, which doesn't mean the market is over, but it does indicate that selling pressure above is heavier than expected.
What’s truly worth watching next is whether funds continue to buy after the price falls.
Prices are more honest than words.
If the price falls but funds keep flowing in, and BTC can reclaim 80000 USD, then this pullback might not be a bad thing. But if the price continues down and funds start to withdraw, don’t rush to treat a spike as a trend reversal.
BTC’s real test this time is not whether it can surge above 80000 USD.
It’s whether it can stand back up after falling.
$ETH $ZEC
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 U.S. stocks rebounded after crude oil and long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell simultaneously, with Nasdaq and SOX leading the gains, but this is more akin to a pre-event tech stock position repair rather than a new trend breakout.
The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, while the equal-weight index fell 0.09%, and only 207 constituent stocks advanced, indicating the index outperformed the average stock and gains remained highly concentrated.
Total market volume was only 14.32 billion shares, about 12.7% below the 20-day average volume, which does not support the judgment of "institutional large-scale chasing of gains."
The market condition defines that the long-term bull structure remains intact, with a short-term rebound but insufficient breadth, entering a triple event window of PCE, Nvidia earnings, and Jackson Hole. $QQQ Bitcoin's 24-hour level shows the first sign of momentum decay! Opportunity is coming!
On August 22, $BTC at 78,000 had a realized profit 24-hour peak of $100 million; on August 22, BTC at 80,600 had a peak of $181 million.
The price is higher, but the realized profit is not higher, which now indicates momentum decay.
Normally, when the price surges, market trading should also be more active. Profit-taking emerges, funds are absorbed, and the price is pulled up; this is a sign of strong demand.
Conversely, if there is an upward divergence, it means the driving force is starting to weaken.
But weakening does not mean an immediate drop!
It can also be broken by the next wave of demand or show a secondary divergence. Until the price holds but momentum severely shrinks.
At least what I can see now is that there was a slight problem before 81,000.
It needs to be emphasized that this is not a signal to short!
Rather, if the small problem gradually grows bigger, then those who missed the previous opportunity should pay attention and hurry to find a chance to get on board.The most absurd scene tonight is not that the US keeps expanding the sanctions list, but that with each additional page on the list, oil prices actually drop further.
Digital assets, gold, and shipping are all included in the secondary sanctions against Iran, with claims of "zero leakage." $CL and $BZ should have surged, but both fell over 4%.
Then it became clear: crude oil trading is about how many barrels are missing at sea#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM "Is the violent bull run over? Don't rush, the bear market hasn't received the script yet"
$BTC from 60,000 to 80,000, what’s truly worth watching is not the increase, but its performance facing the "historical ghost gate" at 80,000 — previously every time it reached here it got slapped back, but this time it held steady between 78,000 and 80,000.
Last week it rose over 20% in a single week; logically, profit-taking and leveraged liquidations should have crashed the price, but the pullback was surprisingly restrained, with funds catching every dip to 78,000, and panic selling never emerged.
What’s supporting the market isn’t retail sentiment, but real money: US BTC ETFs have had continuous net inflows, with a single-day high of $338 million, and nearly $1.9 billion accumulated the previous week; exchange Bitcoin balances keep declining, with buying driving withdrawals and locking, not contract wash trading. Big money has no plans to exit at 80,000.
The past strong resistance at 80,000 is turning into new support through high-level turnover. Those waiting to "buy the dip on a deep drop" might be waiting in vain. As long as volume-backed stability above 80,000 holds, the next target is 84,000. There will be pullbacks along the way, but as long as 78,000 doesn’t break, the trend remains.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 BTC is indeed strong this time, but the more it is like this, the less willing I am to chase in the middle range.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is about $78,971, up about 2.1% in 24 hours, with a high of $80,715 and a low of $77,955.
It has risen about 22.9% in the past seven days.
Normally, such a rise should have triggered deeper profit-taking by now, but every time BTC returns near 78,000, there are buyers.
Funds have not withdrawn either.
On August 25, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $314.3 million again, marking seven consecutive trading days of inflows, totaling about $2.57 billion.
But I also see a problem:
The 24-hour trading volume dropped to about $34.5 billion, down about 39.5% from the previous day.
The price is holding, but the volume has shrunk.
This means it looks more like high-level rotation rather than a new round of acceleration.
True strength is not about never falling, but about holding firm during low volume and surging during high volume.
From now on, I only watch two levels:
A breakthrough and hold above 80,700 is needed to continue targeting 81,200—84,000; if it repeatedly fails to break 80,700, the price will most likely retest 78,000.
If 78,000 breaks down with volume, the next stop to watch is around 76,500.
Do you think BTC will reach 84,000 first, or retest 78,000 first? Over the past week, the news has been overwhelmingly intense.
Besent announced an expansion of long-term debt repurchases and launched an "economic D-Day" against Iran, judging that the U.S. does not need to take large-scale military action again. Meanwhile, Trump announced raising tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, and parts to 50%; a Pakistani delegation went to Iran to mediate, and this morning news emerged that the U.S. and Iran have reached a consensus on ceasefire terms.
Six events, three completely different policy areas, all squeezed into the same week. The directions conflict with each other, yet the pace is highly consistent, all accelerating.
Most people handle this by breaking the news apart and looking at each piece individually. Each can lead to a reasonable conclusion: tariffs may push inflation up, U.S.-Iran détente may lower inflation; long-term debt repurchases ease valuation pressure, trade frictions erode corporate profits.
But combined, it’s a tangled mess, full of contradictions.
Most of the time, when a bunch of seemingly conflicting policies crowd into the same window, the problem isn’t "these policies contradict each other," but rather "they share the same calendar."
Finding this calendar reveals why someone managing $40 trillion in national debt suddenly becomes a key player in the Iran issue, and why a government that just took action against Canada is simultaneously eager to pull back in the Middle East. $ETH $XAU $CL #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场, can the IPO narrative be realized? The $30 trillion TAM will never be realized—it was never a prediction, just a tool to "rationalize" the $2 trillion valuation. The IPO itself (ringing the bell in September-October and raising 100 billion+ yuan) is very likely to succeed; But a $2 trillion valuation and long-term value after listing are two different things, questionable. How did this figure come about? On August 25, The Wall Street Journal quoted insiders: Anthropic is preparing to tell investors during its IPO roadshow that its potential market (TAM) exceeds $30 trillion, surpassing SpaceX's record of $28.5 trillion set in June. Caliber: Package all future human jobs that AI can take on—programming, law, healthcare, financial analysis, customer service, research, education. Essentially, it is "an overall price tag for the cognitive labor that humanity can deliver," not industry estimates. Comparison anchor: The U.S. annual GDP is about 32.4 trillion; The 191 tech companies in the S&P 1500 had combined revenue of only $2.4 trillion last year, more than twelve times that amount. Even if the most optimistic revenue reaches $200 billion by 2028, it will only account for 0.67% of $30 trillion. Historically, Uber spent $6 trillion in 2019, WeWork reached $3 trillion, both of which were mocked back then. New York University's Dean of ValuationXinhua News Agency cites Pakistani military and Iranian security sources: the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire agreement, including free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with an official announcement expected within a few days.
The market transmission chain for this matter is very clear:
Hormuz reopens → crude oil supply resumes → Brent prices come under pressure and fall → inflation expectations cool down → Federal Reserve rate cut space opens → non-interest assets benefit across the board → BTC and gold rise simultaneously.
During the last ceasefire in April, Brent fell about 16% in a single day from $120 to $92, and BTC also showed a significant improvement in risk appetite during the same period.
Today BTC is around $79,000, with the 50-week moving average at $82,470 as the next key confirmation level—if the ceasefire official announcement drives oil prices down and the dollar weakens, the $82,470 level could face a real challenge this week.
The source of the news is currently Pakistani and Iranian channels cited by RIA Novosti; the US side has not yet officially confirmed. Maintain observation before the official announcement is released. $BTC #US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
"US expands sanctions on Iran colliding with Strait navigation talks, why did oil prices plunge below $86?"
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just blacklisted 60 entities and vessels, threatening comprehensive economic isolation, yet international crude oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days. After Brent crude dropped 3.89% in a single day, it further fell below the $86 mark during trading on the 26th, retreating nearly 7% from the previous high of $92.
Market funds are rapidly clearing risk premiums because Tehran has turned to reach a framework agreement with Oman to establish a joint temporary shipping corridor limited to civilian commercial vessels, directly breaking the long-standing unilateral bet on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The White House fears uncontrolled oil prices will backfire on domestic inflation, while nearly 90% of Iran's crude oil has long circulated through non-dollar channels. Paper sanctions cannot physically cut off supply, and with 30 to 60 days of navigation talks underway, crude oil bulls are concentrating on closing positions and exiting the market. $BTC The $30 trillion AI super narrative—will it retrace SpaceX's old path?
Recently, Anthropic's IPO expectations have been all over the news.
The most shocking statement: AI's potential market size (TAM) exceeds $30 trillion.
What does that mean?
The entire US annual GDP is about $32 trillion.
In other words, the capital market is pricing AI—almost creating another US economy.
The story is grand and sexy enough, but when you strip away the hype and look at the real data, the gap is glaring.
Anthropic's own forecast:
Target revenue in 2028 is only $190–200 billion.
A simple calculation:
The so-called $30 trillion super track, the revenue realized in the next three years, is less than 1% of the total market.
$30 trillion is the ultimate imagination; $200 billion is the short-term reality.
The biggest risk in the capital market always comes from "expectations being too high, but execution falling short."
This immediately reminds me of SpaceX.
Before going public, it had an epic narrative: space economy, interstellar ecosystem, hundreds of trillions in market space.
At IPO, it was wildly chased by capital, soaring to over 200.
But as everyone saw:
No matter how top-tier the story, the secondary market ultimately recognizes only performance and fulfillment.
Once the overvaluation bubble recedes, even the brightest track falls back to reality.
Now Anthropic's script is almost a replica:
Using "ten, twenty years of ultimate future" to support "today's trillion-dollar valuation."
Many are following the hype bullishly, but I prefer to calmly break down three real valuation logics:
1. Revenue growth is fast but falls short of market ambition
Anthropic's revenue growth is indeed impressive, jumping from 9 billion to 65 billion in 7 months.
But the capital market's expectations are even higher; failing to meet consensus expectations is an implicit negative.
In high-growth industries, the deadliest thing is not no growth, but "growth slowdown."
2. Newly positive profits are actually fragile
Currently, adjusted profits have just turned positive.
But combined with large equity incentives and heavy R&D investment, the real net profit that can be realized is not optimistic.
The AI industry is still burning cash; profit stability is far from sufficient.
3. Industry dividends are becoming competitive; high premiums are hard to maintain long-term
More players are entering the large model track, and enterprise clients are starting to rationally diversify.
People no longer blindly chase top-tier models but prioritize cost-effective models.
Future high valuation premiums will definitely be slowly diluted by fierce competition.
To be honest:
The $30 trillion TAM essentially prices the ultimate vision of "full automation of human labor."
But this level of realization requires more than a decade of technological iteration and industrial penetration.
The stock market is a quarterly voting machine, not a century-long dream harvester.
Grand narratives can support long-term faith but are absolutely unsuitable for short-term blind heavy positions.
History always repeats:
There are always people who believe "this time is different," and always people who treat distant stories as reasons to buy now.
Those who stood guard at SpaceX's peak are still here; now it's AI super IPO mania's turn.
In the hot potato game, the most dangerous moment is when everyone is immersed in a beautiful story.
My current stance is clear:
Respect the track, not the bubble.
AI is definitely the future, no doubt about that.
But future money cannot be earned by overdrawing valuations and blindly rushing now.
Investment ultimately competes not on imagination but on execution ability, cash flow, and real moats.
Stories can be seasoning, but as staple food, the market will teach a lesson.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ BTC is up 41% from the June low
In the last two midterm years that bounce was +49% and +43%
BUT, if you think the LOW IS IN, watch the "Fed meeting" on September 16
Odds of a hike dropped to 30% after they announced the $1T bond buyback, but they're back at 40% now
That's enough for it to happen
If it does: liquidity tightens, stocks have historically dropped ~20%, AND crypto follows in Q4
The low could be in, but if they hike, I #BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM To be honest, **I'm not sure, but I can analyze the probabilities.**
**Bearish signals:**
- Nvidia has fallen for 7 consecutive days, the longest streak since 2022 — institutions are reducing positions in advance, indicating low market expectations for this quarter's earnings
- The US continues to tighten AI chip export restrictions to China, which will impact this revenue segment
- There are market doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures
**Bullish signals:**
- AI demand is real, cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) are still accelerating capital expenditures
- The 7-day decline may have already priced in the negative expectations — the stock price has absorbed some pessimism
- Nvidia historically has a high probability of "beat and raise" (exceeding expectations + raising guidance)
**My judgment: small probability of a significant beat, high probability of meeting expectations, small probability of missing expectations.**
Why I say this:
- The 7-day decline shows Wall Street has already priced in "not so good" results
- Nvidia's execution has always been strong, so actual data will likely beat expectations
- But the beat margin may not be large enough to reverse the 7-day downtrend
**Impact on you:**
- **If earnings are good (40% probability):** BTC may directly surge above $83K, and your holdings will continue to rise
- **If earnings meet expectations (40% probability):** price may drop first then rise or trade sideways, with little impact
- **If earnings are poor (20% probability):** BTC will pull back short-term to $75K-$77K, which is exactly our first batch buy-in price
No matter which scenario, your position structure is correct — have a base holding to enjoy the rise, and cash ready to buy the dip. This is why I say "wait for news" rather than "guess the news." Bitcoin finally reached the $80,000 mark, but many people's accounts didn't feel any lighter. Market sentiment quickly shifted from floating gains two days ago to floating losses—a shift more intense than expected. At first, I thought the short position around 78,600 was safe enough, but looking back now, the risk was always there—just inertia at the time masked it. The entire account's stop-loss line has been forced downward, now hanging at 94,000. The biggest dilemma is whether to give up and exit first, or take a chance to rebound and find a new position to short. Ethereum still holds a few dozen dollars in floating gains for now, but by the time I write this, it may have already turned from green to red. The overall market is climbing, and the interlocking effect has pushed Ethereum's liquidation price higher, now passively adjusted to around 2,700. If the market continues to rise, the liquidation prices of the two positions will be pushed up even further. At that point, the only remaining options are to keep adding margin, using funds to buy time, and wait for the market to give a clear direction. Looking back, the root cause of this round of losses isn't a misjudgment at a certain level, but rather a mindset developed too deeply in a long-term bear market. If you have been short for too long, people will instinctively think every rebound is a fake, and every bullish candlestick should be suppressed. But when ZEC and HYPE hit new highs one after another, the market has already given the answer through action: the trend has long changed, and they are still searching for new territories with the old map. If there is another decent pullback next, what should be done is decisively let go of the obsession with bears and adjustHormuz Route Resumption Realized: It's Not a Positive Event, But a Market-wide Sentiment Repricing
Recently, many people have been talking about the resumption of the Hormuz route, with most staying on the surface: geopolitical easing, risk cooling, positive for risk assets.
But the real market logic is far more complex than the news headlines.
My intuitive judgment: crude oil quickly returns to reality, gold faces short-term pressure, BTC enters the most difficult phase of volatile long-short oscillation.
The market never trades facts, only expectation gaps.
In the past few months, the pricing across commodities, macro, and crypto markets has been heavily loaded with a "Middle East risk premium." Now that the route is restored and tensions have cooled, this is essentially not a positive factor but a collective clearing of the previous risk-hedging premium.
1. Crude Oil: Sentiment Recedes, Returns Fastest
A large part of the recent high oil prices came from geopolitical risk premiums, not real supply and demand.
With the route restored and circulation smooth, this excess premium will quickly fade.
Don't expect a slow decline; the futures market always settles sentiment recovery in one go.
Previously accumulated long positions will exit en masse, and oil prices will rapidly return to the real supply-demand range.
Simply put: what supports oil prices is sentiment, not demand; once sentiment is gone, prices naturally fall quickly.
2. Gold: Short-term Pressure, Long-term Logic Intact
With easing tensions, safe-haven funds flow out immediately, so gold will be drained and adjusted in the short term, which is the most normal market reaction.
But what truly determines gold's trend has never been geopolitical conflict, but inflation and interest rate expectations.
Oil prices continue to fall → inflation expectations cool further → Fed rate cut space reopens.
Therefore, this round of gold correction looks more like a "shakeout" rather than a peak.
After short-term sentiment exits, macro easing expectations will dominate again, and gold still has room for recovery later.
3. BTC: The Most Agonizing Phase Now—Long and Short Logic Both Valid
Many are puzzled: with easing tensions, will crypto rise or fall?
Actually, there is no one-sided trend now, only macro two-way tug-of-war:
Short-term bearish logic:
Geopolitical risk settles and fades, market risk aversion sentiment recedes, combined with short-term swings in rate cut expectations, risk assets will follow the broader market under pressure, with intensified oscillation and divergence, altcoins face obvious correction pressure.
Mid-term bullish logic:
If oil prices continue to weaken and economic recovery expectations weaken, the market will reprice "recession + easing."
After commodity funds flow out, excess liquidity will eventually flow back to equities and digital assets as growth targets.
This is why BTC is extremely frustrating at this stage:
Short-term selling pressure, mid-term support, both long and short can make money but are also easily stopped out.
4. The Most Reliable Trading Approach Now
Don't trade based on news; focus only on core macro anchors—the long end of US Treasury yields.
- Long-end yields falling: market trades recession expectations, declines are opportunities, key levels can be used to scale in.
- Long-end yields rising: market trades soft landing recovery, rallies are chances to reduce positions, patiently wait for a second low.
At this point, I am increasingly certain of one thing:
All surface news ultimately serves macro liquidity.
Making decisions based on news-driven moves is always one step behind the market.
Real trading is about anticipating expectation shifts in advance, not being led by market sentiment.
Currently, do not chase longs or shorts; maintain a neutral position, keep patience and ammunition.
In a choppy market, survival is more important than short-term windfalls.
Let's talk about your positions: are you currently watching, lightly testing longs, or leaning bearish and defensive?
$BTC $CL $XAU #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Did you notice the US crypto stock index surged 5.04% in this rally?
Robinhood $HOOD rose over 7%, MicroStrategy $MSTR rose over 6%, Coinbase $COIN and Circle $CRCL also rose over 4%. This big surge seems to be a catch-up rally following $BTC breaking 80,000, but the capital flow behind it is quite worth analyzing.
First, US stock institutions are buying compliant substitutes.
Many traditional institutional funds have compliance restrictions and cannot directly buy tokens, but they can compete for shares through the US stock channel. The capital is not betting on token price fluctuations but on the commercialization dividends of the entire crypto infrastructure under the US stock framework.
Second, valuation reshaping from computing power transformation.
Many mining companies are converting excess data centers into AI infrastructure. The market has found that these companies have ready power and server rooms, directly benefiting from the AI computing power wave, enjoying the dual premium of cryptocurrency and AI.
Next, there will be intense differentiation within the sector. Targets relying purely on existing holdings to support valuation will have high volatility. Companies with real business settlements, able to leverage stablecoin interest or enter AI computing power leasing, will see strong US stock buying support during pullbacks.
Are you now more inclined to favor US-listed crypto stocks, or do you prefer pure token assets?
DYOR Looking back at the 1011 event last year, the largest single-day liquidation in history, it seems like it was destined to happen
Why do I say that? Look at the image below, at that time Bitcoin was around 120,000, Ethereum around 4,700
The number of open contracts for liquidation in crypto reached an unprecedented high at that time (mostly long positions)
Looking back, historically, whenever the number of open contracts accumulated excessively, there was a sharp crash
So it can be predicted that if the number of open contracts again becomes excessive or reaches historical extremes in the future, caution is needed, as a major crash may occur, and there will be new reasons for it
Last year, big exchanges pulled the plug and rushed ahead, so what about next time?
$BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC cooling down — what’s next?
$BTC dropped to the $78.8K–$79K range after failing to hold $80K, while $ETH slid close to $2.45K. For now, this looks more like a cooldown rather than a confirmed reversal.
Going forward, pay close attention to ETF fund flows + trading volume! #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 8.26 Gold Afternoon Analysis
In the morning, the price retraced to 4630 and stabilized before rebounding above 4670. The short-term bulls have fully released momentum, entering a high-level consolidation. The daily bullish structure remains intact, but RSI is overbought and momentum is weakening. The 4700 level faces resistance, and the hourly chart shows a divergence correction is needed.
In the afternoon, the market mainly digests profit-taking with consolidation. Buy on dips around 4620-4630, with a stop loss below 4600. The target is 4670-4680, and a breakout could reach 4700.
Note:
The above analysis is the personal view of Mu Yao. The market changes rapidly, and the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice! $XAU Strong inflows into spot $BTC ETFs continue, according to SoSoValue.8.26 Midday BTC Market Analysis
After a surge and subsequent pullback, BTC is currently in a consolidation phase. Yesterday, bulls pushed the price up, reaching a high near 81270 during the session, then faced resistance and pulled back. In the early hours today, the price repeatedly tested support in the 78000‑79000 range effectively.
Key Levels
Upper resistance: The 80000 round number is the core resistance level. A strong volume-backed close above this level is needed to open up a new upward move; once broken, attention can shift to the 81500‑82500 range.
Trading Strategy Reference
Bullish bias: If the price stabilizes after pulling back to the 78100‑78500 range, consider light long positions with targets at 80000‑81000, and place stop-loss below 77500. Orders with 30x leverage may look like a big gamble on the surface, but in reality, it's just betting on the margin of error for direction. Profits are amplified, losses are amplified too, and a slight misstep can easily get you harshly punished by the market.
Key data here: the coin is xyz:XYZ100, leverage 30x, long position, entry price 29,197.73, position size $249,988.
Don't be fooled by the large position size; the biggest risk with high leverage isn't momentary volatility, but your own emotional overreaction. If you stick stubbornly to the wrong direction, hoping the market will turn around on its own, small losses can snowball into big ones, or you might even get liquidated and taught a harsh lesson.
Experienced traders say bluntly: going long with 30x leverage isn't bravery, it's trading discipline for thrill. If you're right, you feast; if you're wrong, the market will teach you a lesson in minutes.
Cut losses when you should; don't mistake stubbornly holding on for skill. Preserve your capital, so you have the chance to turn things around next time. Recent key focuses in the crypto circle‼️
1. The US expands crypto sanctions on Iran, increasing compliance risks; Middle East conflicts push inflation higher, reviving Fed hawkish concerns
2. BTC spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, but the market is in an extreme greed zone with crowded high leverage, increasing liquidation risks
3. Overall news is neutral to volatile, bulls have funds supporting the bottom, short-term pullback selling pressure is heavy, beware of sharp drops from the highs
$BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $HYPE is consolidating with reduced volume below its historical highs, as long-term interest-bearing buyback expectations meet the imminent release of internal tokens head-on.
After the price touched $83.3, it retraced to the $80 level for consolidation, with spot trading volume contracting as high-level holders take profits.
The official launch of AQAv2 brings a $5 billion reserve interest-bearing buyback mechanism, expected to inject over $100 million in buying annually, while on August 29, a $1.2 billion token unlock will occur.
The buying commitment is spread evenly over time on an annual basis, but the incremental supply shock from circulating tokens will be realized in concentrated bursts at specific points, making short-term positions more defensive.
If bulls can absorb the initial liquidity supply above $78 and rebuild risk appetite through buyback cash flows, the price is likely to open space above $84.
If heavy selling pressure breaks through the $77 support line directly, a liquidity gap may force the valuation to seek more solid support around $72.7.
If the unlocked tokens do not enter secondary market circulation, the current pressure logic will be overturned.
The most important variable to watch in the coming week is the actual scale and flow rate of unlocked tokens transferred on-chain to trading platforms on August 29.
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期$5 billion of IBIT options expire on September 18.
Most of that is calls: $3B vs $2B in puts.
Max pain sits at $40, which corresponds to a #BTC price of approximately $71k.Tonight is all about betting on Nvidia $xNVDA! Revenue expectation of 92 billion, the ultimate validation of AI computing power
$NVDA will release its Q2 earnings after the market closes today, the biggest event in the global capital markets this week.
Wall Street expects revenue of 92 billion, EPS of $2.09, and data center revenue is expected to be 85.4 billion, up 107% year-over-year. But Jefferies has raised the "bullish threshold" to 95 billion, and next quarter's guidance needs to be 108 billion to be considered above expectations.
Nvidia has fallen for seven consecutive days, the longest losing streak since 2022. The storage sector plunged more than 6% the day before yesterday and then launched a full-scale rebound before the market opened yesterday. Funds are frantically speculating ahead of the earnings report.
Three key points: whether the customer structure is diversified, the relay timetable from Blackwell to Vera-Rubin, and whether the 500 billion financing pool will become a new risk. Market cap is 5.25 trillion; a 14% increase would reach 6 trillion. If the earnings report is good, the entire AI industry chain will experience a major upward wave; if mediocre, it will oscillate at a high level. No sleep tonight. #NvidiaEarnings $NVDA Has the sentiment indicator reached a short-term peak?
CryptoQuant Research tweeted that $BTC has entered the early stage of a new bull market, but some short-term indicators are starting to overheat.
The intention is clear: to warn leveraged traders to be cautious, as the early bull market is a directional cycle, which doesn’t mean it will rise every time.
Short-term overheating indicates the price is rising too fast, and profit-taking and leveraged funds need to be digested.
Market sentiment also confirms this.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to its highest level since the crash in October 2025.
Funds that were hesitant a few weeks ago are now starting to worry about missing out, with a clear increase in FOMO.
On the other hand, institutional moves are more subtle.
Wintermute has reduced its short exposure on Hyperliquid to $80.48 million, indicating that professional funds are unwilling to continue heavy bets on a decline but still maintain some short positions, not fully switching to a one-sided bullish stance.
The current market feels more like "direction biased bullish, positions overheated."
It is important to watch if the rise is mainly driven by spot and ETF funds, in which case a pullback might just be a rotation.
If funds continue to flow into futures, with open interest and funding rates rising rapidly, a single pullback could turn into a chain liquidation.
So whether it’s a bull market and whether to chase the highs are two different things.
The biggest risk is trading with maximum leverage when sentiment is at its peak, unable to withstand a sharp drop during the bull market. $SUI's introduction of tZERO's compliant infrastructure is favorable for mid- to long-term institutional capital entry, but there is a timing conflict between the lag in U.S. stock securities clearing cycles and the short-term speculative demands of the crypto derivatives market.
tZERO's issuance, custody, and trade settlement support has connected the U.S. regulatory compliance channel, and pricing in the spot market is beginning to tilt toward institutional compliant capital absorption. The derivatives market's short-term reaction to such long-cycle compliant infrastructure benefits tends to show liquidity withdrawal after the benefits are realized.
From the capital flow perspective, the integration of compliant custody and transfer agency facilities enhances the expectation of locking spot tokens. The implementation cycle for U.S. stock market infrastructure access is usually long, making it difficult to immediately convert into explosive growth in on-chain liquidity or order book depth in the short term.
The bullish scenario requires observing the persistence of spot buying at support levels. If subsequent $SUI on-chain compliant asset issuance volume and derivatives open interest both show stepwise growth, and funding rates remain in a healthy positive range, it indicates that institutional compliant incremental capital is substantively entering the market.
In this case, every 10% increase in spot depth will reduce the slippage impact of large sell pressure on price, confirming the effectiveness of the bullish structure. If there is a sharp rise in high-level holdings while spot trading volume decouples, it indicates short-term capital is prematurely exhausting expectations, weakening the validity of the uptrend.
The bearish scenario stems from short-term liquidity withdrawal during the compliance implementation cycle. If the time cost of U.S. stock facility integration exhausts the patience of on-chain active capital, the combination of derivatives market short covering and spot profit-taking will push prices to retest lower liquidity concentration zones.
Once derivative funding rates quickly turn negative and spot net outflows continue to expand, it means short-term long stop-loss orders have been triggered, and downside risk will further transmit to spot buy order support zones. If spot order book depth does not increase correspondingly, the market will face a phase of clearing tests.
The overall scenario fails if there is a sharp contraction in the macro liquidity environment. When risk-off sentiment dominates overall market capital outflows, the progress of compliant pipeline construction will temporarily lose marginal pricing power over the price.
In the next 7 days, key monitoring points include $SUI spot large capital flows, changes in derivatives open interest position structure, and the performance of the first batch of compliant asset on-chain clearing data.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 After PUMP surged to 0.0050 in this round, I've been waiting for a piece of data.
Will the competition pressure stop?
The latest day:
Another 3.15B volume traded.
It has been a heavy focus for consecutive days.
I find this more interesting than a sudden spike on a single day.
One day could be just sentiment.
Consistent activity at least shows this wave isn't just shorts being forced to liquidate.
The day it first stabilizes, I will be especially eager to see.
$PUMPBTC is testing the 50-week MA
In November, we broke below this moving average, confirming the bear market.
Now we’re testing it again—which is exactly what usually happens at the start of a 3-year bull market.
I expect a bounce from this zone and a 10–15% correction.
The bears still have plenty of time to fight back👊#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视
Quant giant Jane Street has significantly increased its stake in SanDisk, holding 5%, making it its second-largest stock position, with a major bet on the AI storage sector. SanDisk's stock price has surged over 3000% in the past year, transforming from a traditional flash memory manufacturer into a core AI inference storage target. Revenue expectations for AI data center business have soared, and long-term locked-price orders have solidified the performance base, greatly enhancing market recognition of its growth logic.
From an optimistic perspective, the AI industry focus is shifting from training to inference, with storage becoming the core bottleneck beyond computing power. HBF high-speed flash technology opens up incremental space, and institutional accumulation represents smart money's confidence in the industry's long-term dividends. The AI storage sector's valuation still has room for recovery.
Personal view: Short-term gains have overextended expectations, and valuation is already in a high-level competitive range. Jane Street's accumulation is a mid-term allocation move and does not imply the stock price will continue to rise unilaterally. Once cloud providers slow capital expenditures and storage price cycles fluctuate, high valuations will face sharp corrections. Differentiation in the AI storage sector will intensify; only companies with solid technical barriers and strong order certainty can realize value.
Mapping to the crypto market, AI computing power and storage narrative tokens will experience sentiment catalysts, but most are thematic pulses, so avoid chasing highs blindly. Future focus should track SanDisk's order fulfillment, NAND flash price trends, and changes in institutional holdings.#TOTAL MARKET CAP ANALYSIS
Total market cap has broken out of the ascending triangle pattern with significant volume, signaling strong bullish momentum.
Currently, it is trading below the horizontal supply zone, which is acting as a key resistance level.
A solid breakout above the supply zone could trigger further upside, while rejection from this level may lead to a pullback.The whole market is waiting for Waller's Jackson Hole debut, but I'll be straightforward—most likely, we won't hear much.
Honestly, this is increasingly looking like a big self-celebration event. Bank of America says 69% of fund managers expect him to speak "neutral," so what's the point? It's already priced in, so it's pointless to say anything.
But don't be fooled by the market betting on neutrality; Waller is truly a hawk at heart. At the July meeting, the vote was 9 to 3 to hold steady, and the 3 dissenters all wanted a 25bp hike. Have you read the minutes? "Many members feel that if inflation doesn't come down, tightening is necessary." The June dot plot was even more direct: out of 18 people, 9 expect another hike this year. The Senate says zero tolerance for high inflation—think about that.
The problem is the data is quite puzzling. July's nonfarm payrolls came in at -23,000, while expectations were +80,000; employment just cooled off suddenly. But CPI is still at 3.4%, far from 2%. What do you want him to say at this point? If he talks about hiking, employment data contradicts him; if he talks about cutting rates, he loses credibility.
And that's not all—Waller's style is to say less and do more. Since taking office, he cut the policy statement from 400 words to 150 and removed forward guidance. Do you expect him to clearly say whether there will be a hike in September? Think again.
For the crypto space, this will just be a volatility amplifier, not a directional signal. We still need to watch the September nonfarm payroll and CPI data.
Personal view for sharing only: $BTC has fallen from 80,000 to 79,000, support is seen at 76,000-74,000; $ETH is hovering around 2450, if it can't hold, look for 2350-2200; $SOL is near 96, if it really breaks, look for a bottom at 88-83. #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be fulfilled?
A $30 trillion market—when this number came out for Anthropic, it was indeed quite intimidating.
What does a $30 trillion market mean?
It's even larger than the $28.5 trillion market space given when SpaceX went public.
Sounds like good news, but what does this $30 trillion have to do with Anthropic?
Because TAM, simply put, means "If I capture all potential future demand, theoretically I can earn this much."
But in reality, Anthropic expects revenue around $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028. Compared to the $30 trillion market space, it actually accounts for only a small portion.
What really determines how much this company is worth is never how big the market is, but how much it can capture. Will customers keep paying? Does the model truly have differentiation? Can pricing power be maintained? Most importantly, can the money earned cover the rapidly growing computing power and R&D costs?
This logic is actually very similar to the crypto space.
A project tells you:
"This is a trillion-dollar market."
"Future penetration rate is only 1%, which is $10 billion."
Sounds very tempting.
But in the end, the market only asks one question: Why should your 1% be yours?
Just like a trillion-dollar track doesn’t mean a certain coin is worth a trillion dollars.
A high ceiling doesn’t mean you can really climb there.
$ANTHROPIC 🔥 This might be the signal Bitcoin has been waiting for. Let's temporarily set aside the market noise and look at these two signals that have appeared simultaneously before major crypto market expansions: 📈 The ISM Manufacturing Index just rose to 55.6 🚀 The Russell 2000 Index just broke through 3,000 points, hitting a record high In 2016, we saw a similar combination, which was followed by the first major crypto bull market. In 2020, this signal appeared again, and the total crypto market caOKX's update to the rules for Simple Earn Flexible may seem like a minor adjustment to the earning product, but it actually has a significant impact on many people who habitually put idle coins into their current accounts. The official announcement is very straightforward: starting August 26, 2026, some Simple Earn Flexible products will adopt a new APR calculation method. Simply put, in the past, people would focus on just one display yield when looking at demand deposit earnings; Now, you need to pay more attention to the interest calculation logic, reward sources, caps, and real-time explanations on the product page. Demand deposits are not fixed, nor are they locked for mining; their core value is liquidity. Being able to subscribe and redeem anytime means returns won't always be fixed at a nice number. For these rule changes, I usually don't ask "Has the return decreased?" but look at three points first. First, look at where the APR actually comes from. Is it base earnings, event rewards, or a comprehensive display after layering? If there are extra rewards on the page, you need to clarify whether they are long-term rules. The most common misunderstanding in the crypto world is treating the event period numbers as regular earnings. When the event ends and returns to normal levels, then the platform changes its attitude, often because you didn't see clearly at first. Second, check the limit. Money earned through demand often involves personal limits, total limits, tiered returns, or differences in coin types. The returns seen by large and small funds may be completely different. Especially for $USDT and $USDC casesThe entire market is declining, with CORE and BICO rising against the trend, while BTC, $ETH, and a host of mainstream coins collectively dip, painting the market green overall, with the vast majority of coins falling along with the market. But a strange scene has appeared: CORE and BICO did not follow the market plunge; instead, they independently rose against the trend, making the red-green contrast particularly striking. The community instantly exploded with two kinds of voices. Some on the OKX Planet got excited, saying: This is a strong whale's independent rally! Being resistant to the drop means they are leaders; the more the market falls, the more it proves their strength, signaling the official start of a bull market. Many observers, seeing the counter-trend resilience, had their long-suppressed greed resurface, thinking that with the market weakening, funds are clustering around these two coins, eager to rush in and seize the safe-haven opportunity, yet feeling no joy, only a strong sense of unease. There are two completely different scripts for counter-trend rises: $BICO has real business support in its sector, with verifiable on-chain business flows and almost no large team unlock sell pressure, representing sector funds clustering for risk aversion. Even so, under the market's systemic sell-off, the counter-trend rise is still a short-term pump by speculative whales, not a guaranteed profit. In contrast, $CORE does not have large-scale realized business revenue. When the market crashes, its counter-trend rise is more easily manipulated by small amounts of funds due to its small market cap. Market panic causes mainstream coin funds to flee, while a small amount of short-term hot money comes to speculate on the BTCFi narrative and the whales create a false image of resistance strength, attracting panicked retail investors to enter and take the risk. The most dangerous trap lies precisely here. The market plunges, and the counter-trend rise continues