Jackson Hole countdown, the market has already gone crazy ahead of time
On Friday, Waller will make his first appearance at Jackson Hole.
But the market can't wait—gold surged to 4700, Bitcoin shot up to 81000, rising over 20% in a week.
What happened? Here are 5 quick takes to explain clearly.
Quick Take 1: Bassett messed up, passing the baton to Waller
Last week, Treasury Secretary Bassett announced doubling the scale of long-term bond buybacks to suppress soaring yields.
The effect lasted less than a day. Yields quickly reversed.
The market didn’t buy it. Where did the money go? Gold and Bitcoin.
Bassett said the market was "a bit overreacting." But the dollar fell, gold rose, and Bitcoin gained 25% in a week—this isn’t overreaction, it’s voting with their feet.
Now everyone is waiting for Friday. The 5% yield on 30-year Treasuries is a threshold; if Waller can’t explain things, 5.5% is coming.
Quick Take 2: Three officials hawkishly speak within three days—what’s the warning?
Collins said inflation has been above target "for over five years," and the Fed "can’t wait forever." Barkin said the $40 trillion national debt "will have a reckoning." Georgieva said central banks must be "laser-focused on price stability."
Three days, three people, the same script.
This isn’t casual talk—at the July meeting, three voting members already advocated rate hikes. They’re preparing the market psychologically: rate hikes aren’t a bluff, they’re very possible.
Quick Take 3: The rate hike hammer is hitting already cracked demand
Inflation was driven by three forces: tariffs, oil prices, and AI investment.
Rate hikes can only do one thing: suppress demand. But consumer confidence is already at 89.4—the lowest in seven months. Retail sales have collapsed, employment has stalled.
Demand is already cracked. Hitting it more will shatter it.
Rate hikes can’t break through the three walls on the supply side, only demand—and demand can’t take it anymore. This is the Fed’s dilemma.
Quick Take 4: Gold at 4660, the smartest money says "the rate hike story is ending soon"
Gold rose over 7% in a week, COMEX intraday hit 4755. Citi raised the 3-month target price directly to 4800.
The smartest money is already pricing in one thing: rate hikes are losing steam.
Bitcoin followed, hitting 81000, a three-month high. $1.9 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in five days.
This isn’t speculation, it’s hedging.
Quick Take 5: Only three possibilities on Friday
Hawkish → bond crash, 30-year yield rockets to 5.5%, dollar rises, gold and Bitcoin plunge.
Dovish → dollar crashes, gold and Bitcoin keep flying.
Ambiguous → market scares itself, volatility explodes.
Since Waller took office in May, he’s barely given forward guidance. After the last FOMC meeting, one sentence caused a big bond selloff.
If he doesn’t clarify things this time, the market will do it for him—with selling.
Manage your positions well. Don’t get blown out by news Friday night.
$BTC$XAU$XAUT#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
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