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#US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
The US has sanctioned again, and oil prices have dropped again. How many times has this script played out now?
The US announced an "unprecedented" economic blockade on Iran. Treasury Secretary Yellen said they aim to completely isolate Iran's economy, including crypto assets, technology, and gold in secondary sanctions. They are showing a posture to cut off all financial channels to Iran.
But what about oil prices? They have fallen for three consecutive days. Brent has already dropped below $89, and WTI is close to $81.
Why do oil prices fall after sanctions are implemented?
Simply put, the market doesn't believe this move can last. The key variable is that the Strait of Hormuz is loosening.
Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on a "temporary maritime corridor," starting with a temporary route, with talks on a permanent solution in 30 to 60 days. Trump has also softened his stance, saying the naval mines in the strait have been cleared, and the US is sending diplomats back to the Middle East. Both sides are looking for a way out.
Traders have named this trend "the peace that dares not be public is fermenting." Lots of thunder, little rain.
This script is really familiar—the last time, oil prices initially fell out of respect when sanctions were announced, then dropped further once the strait loosened, with a very similar pattern. This time the script is exactly the same: sanctions, oil price drop, strait talks, oil price continues to fall. How long did the last round of decline last? Anyway, it has started again this time.
Let's see how long this can last this time.🔍
$CL $BZ Solana's recent state can be described as a "shakeout," which is already considered mild. On-chain data is bustling, but the actual funds that remain at the table are becoming increasingly scarce. The market is quietly telling us: the scales of the narrative may be quietly tipping toward Ethereum. Let's start with a set of intriguing comparisons. Applications like Pump.fun and Fomo are going viral, and the community is almost once again obsessed with "copying wallets" and "chasing orders." But at the same time, the vast majority of newly issued meme coins haven't even reached the $50 million market cap threshold. This contrast itself speaks volumes: the traffic remains, but the depth and willingness to take on it are far from what they used to be. The specific case is even more straightforward. $CASHCAT is on Robinhood, barely holding a market cap around $200 million; $BASECAT listed on Coinbase but failed to break $50 million; $ANSEM had top industry KOLs calling for orders every day, but ultimately couldn't hold onto $400 million. A few months ago, projects backed by these resources could have pushed for a $1 billion market cap not a pipe dream. Now, it's become a tough game of "winning if you can make over $50 million." Why suddenly so hard? The popularity of copy trading tools is hard to blame. When everyone gets the same entry point and rushes toward the same exit, liquidity becomes a zero-sum game. Those who run fast earn money, those who run slowly,Now to explain, the meaning of Sesame↓Gate is: while we paid 100000 USDT and 800,000 ALD to the "scammer" wallet according to the contract, Gate's alpha coincidentally automatically captured the ALD tokens, then it cannot be disclosed who connected to the coin listing process, and finally the scammer's wallet transferred the tokens into Gate alpha for an airdrop, is that right?
The hash is here, the answer is here
When a project has paid, listed the coin, and then is told "the person communicating with you is not our staff, and the project is listed on Gate" — this is already a credibility issue for Gate.After reviewing the stablecoin market cap, I realize this cycle is a zero-sum game.
I checked the total on-chain stablecoin market cap, which remains around $319 billion with no significant new expansion. This indicates that large off-exchange funds have not flooded in.
Although BTC‑ETF saw an inflow of 2.6 billion last week, the inflow in the past 24 hours has dropped to 210 million; SOL‑ETF had a daily inflow of over 30 million, which looks good but is far smaller than BTC; $XRP‑ETF only had an inflow of just over 10 million, showing very restrained institutional allocation.
HYPE, BEAT, and $BICO rotate back and forth, with funds just selling one token to buy another. Without new stablecoins entering the market, a broad bull market rally is hard to achieve.
In the past, when the market rose, I fantasized about a big bull market starting, but now, looking at stablecoin data, I’m much more sober. A zero-sum market suits swing trading, not holding for easy wins. Don’t expect all tokens to take off together. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $ETH $SOL Kimchi premium, South Korean retail investors are quietly rewriting the altcoin rhythm
Recently, I have been continuously monitoring Upbit's trading volume. After the South Korean market opens, ZEC, HYPE, and ASTER often experience pulse surges, with the kimchi premium quickly rising to 2-3 points, attracting external funds to chase the highs.
Many times during the Asian session, South Korean funds push ASTER up by 8%, but when European and American funds enter, without buy-side follow-through, the price slowly falls back to the original level. The kimchi premium fluctuations for BTC and ETH are relatively small; it is mostly altcoins driven by sentiment.
I previously chased $ASTER when the premium surged, thinking a big market move was starting, but ended up trapped that same day. Now my approach is: treat the kimchi premium only as a sentiment indicator, do not chase when the premium rises, and observe after it falls back. South Korean retail investors are good at creating short-term hype but find it difficult to lead sustained trends. The weekend flash crash taught me never to hold heavy positions!!
Last weekend, XRP flash crashed 37% in minutes, with a total of $1.35 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours. Over $5 million in long positions were directly liquidated. I witnessed firsthand the disaster caused by liquidity shortage. At that time, BTC only dropped 2.5%, ETH fell 5%, and SOL plunged 11.5%, dragging down the major coins.
I originally held a small position in $XRP spot over the weekend, no leverage, and my account drawdown was 16%. Luckily, I didn’t enter contracts. Reviewing the data, weekend open contracts remained high, but market depth shrank by 40%, and a small amount of sell orders could trigger extreme spikes.
I used to think weekend market fluctuations were small and I could hold positions safely, but reality harshly woke me up. Now on weekends, I actively reduce positions and close all small coin contracts. During low liquidity periods, no matter how good the narrative is, it can’t withstand a dump. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $SOL $ETH $BTC in this round, the truly strong aspects are beginning to show
This time, the feeling Bitcoin gives me is no longer just "rising sharply," but that after rising, it can actually hold steady.
Previously, it surged from over 60,000 all the way to around 80,000 USD, which is already a very considerable increase. What’s really worth noting is that $BTC once surged to about 81,200 USD yesterday. Although it then pulled back, it did not experience a typical sharp drop after a spike, but instead oscillated repeatedly and maintained turnover in the 78,000–80,000 USD range.
Don’t underestimate this detail.
80,000 USD itself is a very strong psychological barrier, and also a position where a large amount of trapped and profit-taking positions are concentrated in the earlier phase. Normally, after a short-term increase of over 20%, a clear round of profit-taking is very likely.
But what the market is showing now is:
When it spikes, some sell; when it pulls back, others immediately buy.
This indicates that the bulls are not just holding on by emotion, but there is still underlying capital supporting the market.
Looking at the capital side, ETFs are also providing continuous support. The US spot BTC ETF has recently seen continuous net inflows, with about 338 million USD net inflow on August 24 alone, and nearly 1.9 billion USD accumulated in the previous week.
What does this mean?
Simply put, after the price rises, the market has not fully entered a "sell-only, no-buy" phase; instead, incremental funds are continuously absorbing the supply. As long as this capital absorption does not weaken significantly, 80,000 USD will not only be a resistance level but may gradually transform from a "barrier" into a new price center.
However, there is also a risk to note here:
The faster the rise, the more you cannot trade with a chasing-the-rally mindset.
What’s truly worth observing now is not whether BTC can continue to surge, but whether effective turnover can be completed above 80,000 USD.
If subsequent volume expands and it stabilizes between 81,000–82,000 USD, and a quick recovery occurs after a pullback near 80,000 USD, then the effectiveness of this breakout will be significantly enhanced, and the market’s next focus may be on higher round-number levels.
Conversely, if volume fails to expand above 80,000 USD for a long time, ETF inflows start to cool down, and high-level trading volume shrinks, then beware of concentrated short-term profit-taking.
So the most important signal now is not "how much the candlestick has risen again," but:
Can 80,000 USD truly transform from a resistance into support for the bulls?
Once this step is completed, the nature of the market trend may truly change.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC Many people are still trying to short right now, but I can only say that if this round continues to use the same shorting approach as the previous two rebounds, it could really end very badly. Because this time, the rise is clearly different from the previous ones.
The first two times were more like leverage-driven short squeezes; once the shorts exploded, the price quickly surged, but then it was easy to crash back down.
This time, however, real spot funds are continuously entering the market.
From the capital structure, market data, to the overall trend, this looks like a very healthy rally. At least it can no longer be simply defined as a "rebound"; calling it a small bull run is not an exaggeration.
More importantly, the frenzy to go long is mainly driven by large holders, while retail investors have not fully FOMOed. In fact, many are still trying to short.
What does this mean?
It means there is still a lot of potential buying power in the market.
When everyone is bullish, the market tends to top out.
But the current situation is that big money is buying, retail is hesitating, and some are even shorting.
This kind of structure often means there is still room for the market to move upward.
As for the current pullback, I personally lean towards seeing it as a normal correction after daily overbought conditions.
Through 4-hour to 12-hour level oscillations and divergences, the market is digesting the short-term overheated sentiment. On a larger scale, it is still in a very strong uptrend. Of course, short-term risks do exist.
Before August 28, market makers may try to keep the price below 80K, as mentioned earlier.
What really deserves attention is after September 15.
After this date, the market will give a clearer answer: whether it continues the bull run or returns to a bear market structure.
But for now, with such a large amount of capital already in the market, sustaining a major prolonged drop is actually not easy.
Unless the main players deliberately kill longs to trigger a rapid crash.
Even if that happens, I tend to believe that as long as the major trend does not change, such a crash will ultimately be quickly absorbed by capital.
So now, I am not only focusing on the crypto market.
When everyone's attention is concentrated on crypto and gold, the previously hottest AI hardware, as well as some long-term depressed big tech and consumer stocks, may be slowly presenting opportunities.
The market is always like this.
What everyone is frantically discussing is often no longer cheap.
And what really deserves attention is often those places no one cares about or is willing to glance at.
Yesterday, I already started building a position in McDonald's, while also continuously watching Nike, Meta, Oracle, Intel, and Google.
Most of these targets do not require retail investors to chase the rally crazily.
Because once capital flows back in the future, it will be hard to lift others up; the real short squeeze usually comes fast and fierce.
What needs to be done now is to find the right positions in advance.
Enter slowly on the left side.
If key levels are broken, cut losses.
If the logic is intact, there is no need to be scared off by short-term fluctuations.
Holding truly high-quality assets is often much more reassuring than chasing hot topics every day.
The market never lacks opportunities.
What is lacking is whether you dare to get in early when opportunities are still unnoticed.
$BTC $ETH $BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Strategy issues more shares to hoard cash, BTC buying rhythm becomes the focus
Strategy recently sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR, net raising $2.007 billion USD, and did not buy BTC that week, maintaining holdings at 840,447 coins unchanged.
Capital allocation:
- USD Reserve increased to 5.1 billion USD, used for dividends, debt interest, to avoid forced coin sales risk during a bear market;
- Newly established 1.59 billion USD Cash, can be used to buy BTC, repurchase securities, or repay debt.
Previously, financing prioritized increasing Bitcoin holdings; this time priority is strengthening cash flow.
Positive: Holding base is safer;
Negative: Share issuance causes equity dilution, cash may not all be invested in BTC.
Core market observation: the final flow of 1.59 billion USD.
If large-scale coin buying occurs, BTC will gain institutional buying; if focus is on repurchases and debt repayment, incremental buying weakens, also affecting MSTR valuation premium.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $BTC $BTC pushed above $80K and $ETH reclaimed $2.5K, but both are cooling after a powerful rally. So far, this looks more like profit-taking than a trend change. After such a strong move, some consolidation is healthy. The key question is whether new buyers step in and absorb the selling pressure. ETF demand remains a major pillar of support, with Bitcoin ETFs attracting roughly $1.92B in inflows and Ethereum ETFs seeing around $697M last week. For now, the bullish structure remains intact. Watch thETF data deceived me, institutions also do short-term trades
I used to think ETF institutions held long-term, but recent data changed my view.
$BTC‑ETF had a net inflow of 2.6 billion in a single week, which looks extremely optimistic, but when broken down by day, the inflow is very uneven, dropping from 600 million to 210 million in a single day. BlackRock IBIT accounts for 80% of the purchases, while other ETFs even showed small outflows.
$ETH‑ETF frequently has intermittent outflows; institutions are not blindly holding, they also reduce positions at highs.
During $BTC's big rally phase, ETFs act as boosters; but after inflows decline, institutions stop increasing their positions.
Looking only at weekly data can be misleading; you must watch 24-hour real-time changes. Don't assume institutions entering the market means a permanent rise #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ $BTC $ETH $SOL will keep rising; institutions also sell high and buy low.The important shift is not simply from pressure to diplomacy, but toward a contest over timing. Wider US sanctions could constrain Iran's oil and payment flows before Qatar-backed talks or the Iran-Oman proposals for a temporary Hormuz corridor, joint mine-clearing and management can reduce uncertainty.
That sequencing matters across markets. Oil's risk premium has already eased with lower tensions, yet renewed energy inflation and tighter dollar liquidity remain plausible if sanctions bite first. If talks lead, oil and gold premiums may fade, while BTC faces a mixed setup: less haven demand but potentially better liquidity. Not advice, just analysis.
#IranSanctionsAndTalksDJT is now listed.
Trump's Truth Social stock can now be traded on Bybit with 25x leverage, long or short.
On the same day: Bybit launched TradFi perpetual contracts for INTU (Intuit) and RAM → Binance rolled out a batch of US stock derivatives → OKX added SKDD, GRASS, and PYTH equity perpetuals. The three major exchanges are expanding intensively on the same day.
This is no coincidence. Traditional stock investors are just one app login away from crypto leverage.
What will this wave of capital rotate into? ETH. Not because it’s performing well, but because USDT-ETH is the shortest path for traditional players to enter. The position logic is just this straightforward.
$ETHUSDC The market is now at a very delicate point. External macroeconomic positives have already been fully priced in. For BTC and ETH to climb to the next level, completely different triggers are needed.
For $BTC to continue rising, ETFs need to maintain large net inflows, and corporate treasuries must keep buying to support the price; for $ETH to break out, relying solely on the overall market rally is far from enough. It requires a revival in on-chain DeFi and Layer 2 network activity to drive a revaluation of network value.
If there are only macroeconomic positives but the on-chain ecosystem remains cold, then most likely BTC will maintain a high-level consolidation, and ETH will repeatedly underperform the market during its grinding phase. Don’t confuse the two; understand the specific conditions each needs to rise to avoid the embarrassment of being right about the macro environment but holding the wrong coin.Moderna has entered a period of intense digestion after a sharp surge, with the core conflict being the valuation premium game caused by the strong revaluation demand for non-AI technological breakthroughs versus the time lag in commercialization realization.
A single-day rise to $174 forced $5.5 billion of short positions to retreat, breaking the previous market expectation of a zeroing out after the pandemic dividend faded. The next day, a pullback of over 20% cleansed short-term profit-taking chips, then rebounded to close at $158 driven by Barclays raising its target price, confirming a secondary repricing willingness after a market cap increase on the order of tens of billions.
In terms of driving factors priority, capital reallocating to real technological breakthroughs outside the crowded AI track ranks first, followed by the fact established by phase III clinical data of reduced relapse risk, while the time lag from clinical implementation to actual revenue constitutes the greatest risk suppression.
The bullish scenario requires buyers to complete a central pivot construction above $158, with a significant volume contraction near the low point of the next day’s pullback. If institutions continue to follow up with target price upgrades, a price break above the previous high of $174 will prove valuation revaluation is dominating the market; the invalidation signal for this scenario is a break below the key turnover support at $140.
The bearish scenario triggers if high-level profit-taking continues to flow out and the wait for commercialization realization outweighs short-term sentiment. If the price falls below $140, it will confirm capital retreating to the range before clinical results, triggering a secondary correction; the invalidation sign for this scenario is a volume breakout and stabilization above $174.
The consolidation scenario requires $MRNA to maintain a wide-range tug-of-war between $140 and $170. Both bulls and bears reach a temporary balance between non-AI concept premiums and the lack of continuous performance handover. Variables to watch include turnover rate and institutional accumulation distribution within this range.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on the strength of chip absorption at the $158 level and whether trading volume can remain high after institutional rating adjustments.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视Strategy's recent cash increase indicates it is no longer just a "BTC buying machine".
Previously, the market saw it simply: raise money, buy coins, and continue to amplify BTC exposure. Now it starts to hold cash, repurchase preferred shares, and maintain the financing structure, signaling a change in approach. It resembles more a financial engineering company with BTC as its core asset.
This step isn't necessarily bad; it might even be more mature. But for shareholders, the issue becomes more complex. Are you buying BTC leverage, or a progressively sophisticated capital structure? Holding more cash reduces explosive potential; holding less cash makes it vulnerable to market pressure during volatility.
Faith is responsible for storytelling, cash is responsible for survival. What’s most worth watching about Strategy now is how these two aspects are balanced.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 The US and Iran are very unlikely to truly ease tensions in the short term.
The US continues to expand sanctions on Iran.
On the other hand, negotiations to resume navigation through the Strait of Hormuz are still progressing.
These two seemingly contradictory actions actually indicate one thing: the US will not easily give up sanctions as leverage, and Iran is unlikely to fully concede after just a few rounds of talks.
In the short term, it’s unlikely that the two sides will achieve real détente; it’s more like they are seeking a balance that no one is satisfied with but can temporarily accept while "applying pressure and negotiating."
So next, it’s not necessarily a sudden handshake or an immediate full escalation.
A more realistic scenario might be: relations remain tense, but efforts are made to avoid pushing the Strait of Hormuz into long-term chaos.
If we assume the Strait of Hormuz eventually returns to stable navigation, the impact on assets could be more direct than many expect.
First, I believe oil prices will react first.
Previously, part of the oil price increase was a premium caused by the risk associated with the Strait of Hormuz.
The market’s real concern is not whether US-Iran relations improve, but whether oil can be transported smoothly. As long as navigation stabilizes, the probability of the worst-case scenario decreases, and this risk premium could be squeezed out first. Even if sanctions remain and relations stay tense, as long as transportation returns to normal, oil prices are still the most likely to respond first.
Second, gold will also be affected, but the logic is not as direct as with oil prices.
With the risk in the Strait of Hormuz reduced, risk aversion naturally cools down, and some of gold’s geopolitical support may fade.
However, gold is also influenced by the US dollar, interest rates, and global capital sentiment, so resuming navigation does not necessarily mean gold will immediately fall; it’s more like losing one short-term reason to keep rising.
Third, BTC may not react the most immediately, but its potential later on is worth watching.
Stable navigation means the crude oil risk premium may decline, and after oil price pressure eases, market concerns about inflation may also cool, giving risk appetite and liquidity expectations a chance to gradually improve.
Therefore, I don’t quite agree with the simple logic of "Strait of Hormuz resumption = BTC immediately takes off." What BTC might truly benefit from is not the resumption of navigation itself, but the macro pressure relief that follows.
If stable navigation is ultimately restored, I will first look at whether the oil price risk premium has noticeably retreated, then see if gold’s safe-haven funds cool down, and finally check if BTC starts trading with better liquidity expectations.
The US and Iran are very unlikely to truly ease tensions in the short term, but for assets, sometimes it’s not necessary to wait for the two sides to really reconcile. As long as the worst expectations start to be gradually removed from prices, the trading direction may have already changed.
$CL #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC $BZ Fundamental Research Report $RDNT / Radiant (DeFi) $3.20
Conclusion first: Radiant ($RDNT) overall score 53/100, rating Narrative over Execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Project overview: Radiant (token $RDNT), in the DeFi sector. Focuses on cross-chain lending. Competitors include AAVE and COMP. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, and user data is not controlled by users. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User metrics: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem grants are B-level and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token details: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Radiant $3.00B, AAVE undisclosed, COMP undisclosed. FDV: Radiant $4.20B, AAVE undisclosed, COMP undisclosed. Annual revenue: Radiant $2.00M, AAVE undisclosed, COMP undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Radiant undisclosed, AAVE undisclosed, COMP undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV to revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario with revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final qualitative assessment: fundamentals solid (score 53/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol revenue long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Tracking metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. If core financial indicators deviate more than 30%, conclusions need reassessment.
That's all, judge for yourself.
#FundamentalResearch #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitIn this "market correction and capital clustering" scenario, making profits is indeed quite difficult, representing a typical structural opportunity. Capital has not left the market but has withdrawn from most altcoins, concentrating into a few sectors and leading coins with clear positive catalysts.
1. The most resilient sector: Layer 2 (second-layer networks)
During the general market pullback, the Layer 2 sector is the only one that maintained an overall rise, increasing 1.13% against the trend in 24 hours.
· Strong performers: Stacks ($STX) stood out the most, rising 16.73% in 24 hours; Polygon ($POL) also rose 6.29%. Capital has formed a synergy in this sector.
2. Select strong leading coins
Although most mainstream coins are declining, some coins have shown independent rallies due to unique positive news:
· Hyperliquid (HYPE): Very resilient, rising against the trend with a 24-hour increase between 1.89% and 5.15%, making it one of today's notable movers. However, note that its network has recently experienced congestion and high Gas fees due to the booming Meme market, posing technical bottlenecks for sustained growth.
· Solana ($SOL): Relatively resistant to decline and attracting capital attention. Although it fell slightly by about 1.3% today, the community is advancing two governance proposals (SGP-0002 and SGP-0003) that could significantly reduce SOL supply. If passed, these would be major long-term positives. Meanwhile, its single-day ETF inflow exceeded $XRP, reaching $33.49 million.
3. The safest capital choice: Bitcoin ($BTC)
In unstable markets, capital's top priority remains Bitcoin.
· Capital flow: The US Bitcoin spot $ETF has seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, with $337 million inflow yesterday alone; institutional funds continue to buy.
· Market share: Bitcoin's market dominance has risen to around 59.68%, near this year's high, indicating accelerating capital concentration into $BTC.
· Market trend: $BTC is oscillating between 78,700 and 79,000. For stability, Bitcoin $BTC remains the first choice.
4. Niche counter-trend opportunities
In an overall weak market, some small-cap coins have surged due to capital rotation, such as MDT (up 199.44%) and AGI (up 63.16%), possibly driven by short-term funds in AI or data sectors. However, these coins are highly volatile and risky to chase, suitable only for short-term traders with very high risk tolerance.
Summary and trading suggestions
Today's profit opportunities summary:
· Short-term strength: Layer 2 sector's STX, POL; independently strong HYPE.
· Long-term capital inflow: $BTC (most stable), $SOL (with supply reduction expectations and $ETF inflows).
Risks to avoid:
· Weak altcoins: Zcash ($ZEC) (-6.44%), Ethena ($ENA) (-7.78%), Dash ($DASH) (-10.10%), etc., with declines far exceeding Bitcoin, and heavy liquidation of longs in clearing data.
· Meme sector: Overall down 3.42%, with clear capital outflows.
Trading advice:
The current market is a typical "Bitcoin bloodsucking" scenario, where most altcoins struggle to make profits. If you must trade, it is recommended to:
1. Control position size: Avoid heavy total positions, especially leverage.
2. Focus on leaders: Prioritize $BTC or the strong coins mentioned above with clear capital inflows.
3. Be cautious bottom-fishing: Do not easily "buy the dip" on weak altcoins that have broken down; the strong get stronger, the weak get weaker is the main theme of the current market.
(The above analysis is based on market data as of August 26, 2026, and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your risks accordingly.) #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Brothers, $SNDK is still continuing to probe downward.
Just checked the data, on Tuesday SNDK closed at $1,480.77, with an intraday low of $1,467.01, and after-hours around $1,485. Since the big bullish candle on August 17th surged to $1,827.99, it has retraced over 20% in less than two weeks; this correction is indeed significant.
📊 What happened on the market? The storage sector collectively "crashed"
This plunge is not due to SNDK alone blowing up, but the entire storage chip sector being pressed down hard.
On August 24th, the US stock storage sector collectively plunged. SNDK fell over 11% intraday, finally closing down about 9%; Micron, Seagate, and Western Digital also dropped over 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 2%—this is an industry-level synchronized adjustment, not an isolated event for SNDK.
Underlying reason: a profit-taking wave after over 500% gains this year.
SNDK rose from a low of $46 in August 2025 to $2,354 in June 2026, a 50-fold increase in less than a year. Any slight disturbance could trigger large-scale profit-taking. Also, the "Nvidia curse" is suppressing sentiment—Q2 earnings are imminent, and the market fears collective profit-taking after AI tech sector earnings release, making it hard for the storage sector to buck the trend independently.
Technically, SNDK has completed a full five-wave correction structure, and the current price is testing a key support zone. Analysts view $1,400 as the core positioning range, a previous dense support level; $1,370 is the lifeline—if it breaks effectively, the downside space will further open.
💎 Has the fundamental changed? Not only no, it’s actually stronger
SNDK’s fundamentals have not collapsed; on the contrary, they are quite solid:
· Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, gross margin soared to 84.6%, Q1 revenue guidance $10.3-$10.8 billion, continuing high growth
· Data center business grew 437% year-over-year, AI inference demand is reshaping the storage market landscape
· Signed multi-year long-term agreements with 8 customers, covering about 50% of FY27 shipments and about two-thirds of FY28, locking in at least $93.9 billion in revenue expectations
· Quant giant Jane Street significantly increased its SNDK holdings on August 25th by 540%, now holding about 5.47% of shares, valued at approximately $9 billion, becoming its second-largest single stock position
From the analyst side, among 24 covering analysts, 20 maintain a "buy" rating, with an average target price of $2,126, about 42% upside from current levels.
💰 View: Wait for stabilization, don’t rush to catch the falling knife
SNDK is currently in a torn state of historically strongest fundamentals + technically weakest short-term. The $1,400-$1,500 range is the current core battleground, with bulls betting on AI storage demand + long-term contracts + $15.5 billion buyback, and bears focusing on NAND price slowdown + deteriorating chip positions + Chinese production capacity threats.
Monday’s intraday view was straightforward: "I won’t blindly bottom-fish after the first plunge. The key is whether the price can stabilize near support and if buyers enter. If the rebound is weak and breaks further, it means the market hasn’t finished selling yet."
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
· Long: Consider after confirming stabilization at $1,400-$1,420, stop loss at $1,370, target $1,550-$1,600
· Short: Light position trial if rebound to $1,550-$1,600 is weak, tight stop loss, target $1,450-$1,480
· Risk warning: Sector sentiment is weak; if $1,370 support fails, downside space may further open
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视 Please note: The capital market is rapidly shifting to "US midterm election trading"!
In the next two months, I believe there are two real opportunities worth ordinary people's attention: buying crude oil on dips, while shorting the historically high US stocks.
I boldly predict: after the midterm elections, once political price suppression ends and international tensions heat up again, Brent crude oil $BZ has the chance to hit $100; under extreme geopolitical conflicts, even $120–150 cannot be ruled out.
1. Why have I been focusing on crude oil?
In peacetime, crude oil is a commodity; but in times of war and intensified geopolitical conflicts, crude oil transforms into a strategic resource. The real bottom demand comes not only from businesses and consumers but also from national governments' strategic reserves and military needs—this is a rigid demand at the state level.
2. Yesterday, the three major US stock indices closed slightly higher, with tech stocks leading gains again. The core reason was the continuous decline in US Treasury yields and a sharp drop in international oil prices.
The day before, the market was still trading on the escalation of US-Iran conflict; in the blink of an eye, it started trading on "peace expectations." Pakistan and Qatar consecutively sent positive signals, and the US is also preparing to redeploy some diplomatic personnel back to the Middle East.
For the capital market, the key is not whether the US and Iran can ultimately reach an agreement, but that the market's pricing of the worst-case scenario is declining.
3. In May this year, I called for buying gold at 900, after which gold entered a bull market; in June, I suggested following PetroChina and Sinopec to start buying crude oil, and within a month, oil prices once rapidly surged near $95.
These two months are the second excellent opportunity to position in crude oil this year. Trump will suppress crude oil prices for votes, especially US crude oil $CL, while also needing to stabilize the stock market to prevent a crash,
so this is a good opportunity for ordinary people to leverage.#Bitcoin ETF data for Monday is out, showing a single-day net inflow of $337.6 million. Counting the five trading days last Friday, this marks six consecutive days of net inflows.
More importantly, the single-day net inflow has remained within the $300-500 million range, indicating that ETF net inflows have not weakened this week and continue to maintain stable net inflows.
Among them, IBIT's net inflow proportion dropped from 77.8% last Friday to 61.9%, while FBTC's net inflow share increased by 31%. This means ETF net inflows are no longer relying on a single source, and market buying sentiment is spreading.
Crypto market data: compared to Monday
1. The BTC pullback led to a synchronous decrease in ETH's share, but altcoin share did not see a significant drop, clearly showing that the current pullback has not put the market into a panic phase.
2. Trading volume increased again compared to Monday, with no significant difference in BTC and ETH trading volumes, while altcoin trading volume slightly increased.
3. Total funds increased by $200 million, with USDT net inflow only $14 million, while USDC net inflow reached $166 million. Funds from the US region have returned to a net inflow phase.
Summary of today's data:
ETF data and crypto market fund net inflows still maintain a healthy state, further confirming that BTC's rebound trend has not ended. However, ETF T+1 has a lag, so we need to wait until tomorrow to see Tuesday's net inflow. After all, $BTC experienced a pullback on Tuesday, and we need to see if the pullback causes ETF net inflow data to weaken.
Regarding crypto market funds, whether in terms of share, trading volume, or fund flow, the situation remains healthy, which is a pretty good data point!Subsequent altcoin market trends
In this wave of rise, projects with the ability to make money have performed well, most outperforming the market. Such a scenario where altcoins soar together hasn't appeared for a long time.
On the capital side, the strong inflow is mainly in ETFs. BTC has seen an inflow of 2.1 billion USD in the past week, and ETH's inflow volume has also hit a new high.
Altcoins can't absorb much of this capital, as verified in the previous round. This round of altcoin market sentiment is related to ICO compliance.
Compliant ICOs have raised expectations for the altcoin market. This logic bets on the future explosion of application layers, new asset issuance, incremental funds from outside the circle, and so on.
Therefore, the previous logic of no altcoin season still holds: it is impossible to rely solely on the spillover funds from BTC and ETH to drive the altcoin market's rise.
The new possibility is regulatory certainty, improving the environment where bad coins drive out good coins, increasing the cost of misconduct. This change is a rebalancing of the industry's scales.
A recent example is the withdrawal movement driven by DeFi summer, which prevents bad CEXs from operating behind the scenes without restraint because the industry landscape has changed. This is the first correction against bad coins driving out good coins.
Now, it is very likely the second time.According to on-chain monitoring, Maji Big Brother (Huang Licheng) currently holds a total nominal position of approximately $129 million, with an overall leverage of 12x, all primarily long positions. The position distribution includes BTC, ETH, HYPE, and PUMP, representing a typical floating profit rolling position trading model. Position data by coin: 1. ETH: Core heavy position, 25x leveraged long, position value $56 million, average entry price $2357, liquidation price $2189. After slight profit-taking and position reduction, it remains the largest position and is the decisive factor for the account's profit and loss. 2. BTC: 40x leveraged long, position size between 30-50 coins, rolling adjustments following the market trend, with short-term small open and close trades for swing trading. 3. HYPE: 10x leveraged long, hot altcoin allocation, position about $6.2 million, speculative narrative-driven market, highly volatile, profits rely on trend movements. 4. PUMP: Small position MEME long, speculative sector sentiment, low position ratio, considered a short-term speculative position. Trading behavior analysis: This round of the market started with the account having only over $100,000 margin left. Through floating profit rolling positions, short-term profits reached about $11 million, narrowing the past 10 months' loss of $35 million down to $24 million. The rolling position model's advantage is explosive profits in trending markets; the disadvantage is rapid chain liquidations once the market reverses. Historically, there have been multiple high-level liquidations, and blue-chip NFT positions were cut to supplement contract margin, reflecting an extremely aggressive trading style. Market reference significance: His positions can only serve as a sentiment indicator and should not be directly copied in reverse. Focus on monitoring ETH Many people didn't understand the mismatch between this round of oil prices and $BTC.
Oil prices crashed over 5% in a single day, breaking below 80, while BTC surged to a new high of 81000 before quickly pulling back. Anyone watching the market recently can feel the tension in this situation.
This is not the old pattern of "good news priced in means bad news follows." Essentially, the funds in different markets are completely out of sync.
Oil funds have long been used to front-running. As soon as they caught wind of the Strait of Hormuz reopening talks, they immediately wiped out the geopolitical risk premium that had been hanging for two months, fully pricing in the inflation decline without waiting for the final agreement to be reached.
But the big money in BTC doesn't buy into this. Russian media just hinted at a ceasefire deal, and Iran immediately publicly denied it; Trump said the mines were cleared, and the US officials quickly denied any substantive negotiations.
The news keeps contradicting itself with no solid proof. The so-called accelerated rate cuts are just castles in the air; no one dares to push the market to a new high directly.
The biggest trap now is that too many people treat market rumors as settled facts, chasing longs and shorts back and forth, getting slapped around in the volatility, quietly losing their principal.
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly amount since October last year. Institutions are putting real money in; the core mid-to-long-term logic remains intact.
Funds only need to wait for two clear signals: either BTC breaks and holds above 82000 with volume confirming the right-side trend to add positions accordingly; or if negotiations fail and the market drops to the strong support zone of 57000-58000, accumulate chips in batches.
In a phase full of true and false news flying around, controlling impulsive orders and maintaining your trading rhythm is far more important than blindly guessing whether the next news is bullish or bearish.
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
$ETH $CL Bitcoin has risen, so why did MicroStrategy sell $2.01 billion worth of MSTR stock?
MicroStrategy has quietly completed a strategic shift from aggressively leveraged crypto buying to building a large macro capital pool.
Shocking?
The first awkward point: they are tied down by high dividends on preferred stock. As a publicly listed company, they have to pay interest in actual US dollars; Bitcoin, no matter how valuable, cannot be directly used to pay dividends.
The second awkward point: to protect their own liabilities and avoid being forced into the desperate situation of having to sell Bitcoin at low prices to repay debt.
The third awkward point: Bitcoin has risen, but MSTR stock price is still cut in half compared to the May peak. Saylor himself said the coming years might be tough.
His approach is to avoid moving Bitcoin as much as possible,
relying on issuing more shares or selling stock to accumulate US dollar cash, to withstand rigid financial pressure.
It's essentially defusing a financial bomb and resolving Ponzi risk.
Going forward, MicroStrategy’s cash and liabilities balance sheet needs to be closely watched.In 2022, $BTC crashed in June, rallied through the summer, and then made one final move lower before bottoming near $16K. $ETH followed a similar path. Fast-forward to 2026: $BTC is back above $80K and $ETH is approaching $2.5K. The setup looks familiar, but one key factor has changed—institutional demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted nearly $2B in recent inflows, creating a level of support that didn't exist in the last cycle. While history often rhymes, it rarely repeats exactly. The questBTC surged then pulled back, so why did crypto stocks collectively rally instead?
Yesterday, BTC briefly surged to $81,200, then retreated to around $79,000, but Strategy rose about 33% over the past 5 trading days, Coinbase rose about 23%, and many crypto-related stocks continued to strengthen.
This indicates that Wall Street trading is no longer just about BTC price fluctuations, but about valuation recovery across the entire crypto industry.
There are three main underlying logics:
First, ETF capital inflow. On August 24, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $338 million, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of inflows.
Second, US Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened, easing macro pressure on risk assets.
Third, rising expectations for the CLARITY Act. Once the regulatory framework becomes clearer, Coinbase, trading platforms, and crypto infrastructure all have room for revaluation.
However, crypto stocks remain a high-beta version of crypto: when BTC rises, they may rise even more; if BTC truly falls, they won’t hold back.
The key going forward is: if BTC consolidates around $80,000 and crypto stocks continue to rise, it means capital has spread from "buying BTC" to the entire crypto industry chain.
This signal might be more worth watching than BTC rising a few points in a day.
Do you think this is a bull market diffusion or the last catch-up rally of high-beta assets?
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH If 57,800 is really the bottom of this cycle, then my previous judgment on the cycle was indeed a bit slow. The bottom came faster, and the market started earlier than traditional cycles. The biggest change is the ETF. In the past, BTC was mainly focused on halving, on-chain chips, and retail sentiment. Now institutional funds have become stable marginal buyers. The bear market duration may be compressed, and the cycle bottom may also be raised. The old indicators have not completely failed; it's just that relying solely on the four-year cycle and extreme signals can no longer explain the current market. ETF subscriptions, US Treasury yields, the dollar, and policy expectations are all increasing in weight. Honestly, if this cycle has already bottomed, I did miss the most comfortable segment. I was always waiting for the last dip, but the market kept forcing shorts out and took off directly. Missing out is naturally frustrating, but chasing FOMO to buy around 80,000 carries greater risk. The weekly breakout indicates the structure has strengthened, but it doesn't mean BTC will keep rising. Historically, after similar long-term sideways consolidation, weekly gains over 20% have a high mid-term continuation rate, but the median maximum pullback afterward is about 14.5%. Calculated from this cycle's high, the normal pullback area is roughly between 68,000 and 72,000. My long-term plan is simple: try small positions to test the trendline pullback between 72,000 and 74,000; if ETF inflows continue and the weekly chart shows a stop in decline between 68,000 and 70,000, then add positions in batches. If the weekly candle closes below 65,000, treat it as a false breakout and stop bottom fishing. If the market doesn't pull back and stabilizes above 82,000, I won't chase large positions. I'll wait for 80,000 to 82,000 to turn from resistance into support before considering.Today's market experienced volatile pullbacks, with capital clustering around a few mainstream assets while most coins remain weak. This is a typical "differentiated pullback" scenario in the current cryptocurrency market. Based on this market condition, I will analyze from three dimensions: capital flow, market logic, and operational strategy:
1. Direction of capital "clustering" (Who is rising?)
· Leading $BTC (Bitcoin): smallest pullback and strongest rebound. On-chain data shows large addresses (whales) continuously net buying during the decline. $BTC dominance once rose above 52%, indicating institutional funds regard it as a "digital gold" safe-haven asset, refusing to concede deeply.
· AI and Meme sector leaders: capital has not fully exited but shifted from second- and third-tier altcoins back to AI sector leaders like $FET, $WLD, and Meme coins with strong narratives such as $PEPE, $WIF. These coins show "resilience + sharp rebounds," representing the main battlefield for speculative funds.
· $RWA (Real World Asset) sector: such as $ONDO, $MKR, benefiting from ongoing deployments by traditional finance (BlackRock, etc.), showing relatively independent trends and becoming choices for some defensive capital.
2. Deep reasons for most coins' weakness
· Liquidity siphoning effect: US stocks (S&P, Nasdaq) are oscillating at high levels, and the crypto market lacks incremental external funds. The existing funds in the market can only support "a few star assets," causing small coins with low liquidity to experience "spiraling" amplified declines whenever the market stirs.
· Lack of new narratives: the previous "L2 (Layer 2) scaling" and "GameFi" narratives are exhausted. New project token unlocks are massive, creating heavy selling pressure. Without new stories to stimulate, capital is reluctant to enter high market cap, low circulation VC coins.
· Macroeconomic suppression: the market is awaiting this week's Fed officials' speeches and PCE data release, reducing risk appetite. Investors prioritize closing high-risk altcoin positions and hold cash or $BTC to wait and see.
3. Today's and short-term operational suggestions (for reference only)
· For holders:
· If holding $BTC/$ETH: recommended to continue holding the base position. If key support levels (e.g., around $BTC 63,000 USD) hold, the pullback is considered a shakeout.
· If holding weak altcoins: strictly review positions. If prices break previous lows without volume rebound, reduce holdings during rebounds (to moving average resistance) to avoid deeper losses in weak coins.
· For those with no or light positions:
· Bottom-fishing direction: prioritize mainstream coins or sector leaders where capital clusters, abandoning the "bargain hunting" mindset (coins that fell more usually fall further).
· Bottom-fishing timing: watch around US stock market open (21:30-23:00 Beijing time). If $BTC sharply dips to support and quickly recovers, try small long positions; if volume shrinks and price moves sideways, wait patiently and do not rush in.
· Risk warning: the market is at the end of "volatility contraction," with direction imminent. Avoid chasing intraday rebounds of weak coins, which often spike in the afternoon session but fall back after US market opens at night, trapping traders.
Summary: Today's market essentially reflects "survival of the fittest under stock competition." It is recommended to reduce trading frequency, strictly control altcoin position ratio (suggested no more than 30% of total holdings), and focus on $BTC and strong narrative leaders. If you hold specific coins (e.g., $SOL, $BNB, or a particular altcoin), you can tell me, and I can further analyze their support/resistance levels for you.
(Note: The above analysis is based on current market data and does not constitute investment advice. Please manage your risks accordingly.) #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #JaneStreet holds 5% of SanDisk, AI storage valuation under renewed scrutiny This time, JaneStreet added 7.41 million shares of SanDisk $SNDK, with a market value of about 9 billion, making it their second largest single position. Over the past year, SanDisk has surged over 3000%, then pulled back more than 30% from its peak, showing significant volatility. The quant giant still dares to hold a heavy position now, indicating they at least don't think the AI storage logic has run its course.
The short-term room for further large gains is indeed narrowing, but the mid-to-long-term logic remains intact. AI's demand for storage is not a passing trend; both training and inference will continuously consume large amounts of enterprise-grade NAND.
What truly matters to watch are long-term orders and profit margins, not just pure demand figures. The storage industry fears strong demand but prices being crushed by new capacity. Now that major clients are willing to sign multi-year contracts locking prices and volumes, profit visibility is significantly improved. Only by locking in high gross margins for several years can valuations stand firm.
In terms of positioning, I would prioritize SanDisk and Micron. SanDisk focuses purely on NAND, deeply tied to several US cloud providers, and is pushing high-bandwidth flash for AI inference; Micron is more balanced, with both HBM and NAND, offering stronger risk resistance. SK Hynix leads technologically but has higher geopolitical and client concentration risks, so I would rank it a bit lower. Whether AI storage can truly deliver depends on whether major clients' capital expenditures can continue and whether vendors can lock in high prosperity through contracts. Relying solely on shortage-driven price speculation will eventually fall back; if order locking plus technological iteration can form, this cycle may be longer than previous ones. I won't blindly chase highs and will wait for a comfortable pullback position Recently, I studied FIP-101, and actually, what it does is not hard to understand — it turns "index running" into a form of mining.
The token balances, holding addresses, and transaction records we see in wallets are not organized and delivered by Bitcoin itself; behind the scenes, there are always indexers running, recalculating the data on the chain.
Previously, these tasks were basically paid for and done by platforms like UniSat themselves. Now FIP-101 wants to try a different approach: nodes are responsible for organizing data and submitting proofs, holders of $FB stake their tokens to the nodes, and after the nodes receive rewards, they share them with the stakers.
With this setup, $FB gains another use case.
I think this direction is promising because a coin relying solely on narrative and hype won't go far; it's best if someone is willing to put it to work and if there are places willing to use it.
Currently, it's still a single-node test by UniSat, and staking has limits. Later, they say multiple index nodes will be opened, but whether third parties are willing to join and whether the data calculated by several nodes will match remains to be seen.
If in the end, it's always UniSat running it, then it's just adding a staking and profit-sharing mechanism to their own indexing service.
If a batch of independent nodes can really run, and wallets, browsers, and trading markets are willing to integrate, then FIP-101 might truly create some real demand for $FB.
For now, don't rush to look at how impressive the yield is; first, see if anyone is willing to do the work. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC fell below 7800 and is now around 78900
We need to understand why? What’s the next move? 80000!
A large part of this rally was originally caused by US Treasury bonds
Now the US stock market is starting to rebound, liquidity is flowing into the stock market
From 63,000 to 80,000 has already reached the profit level in many people's minds
So they started to exit gradually. Today's Nvidia earnings report also had an impact
Everyone wants to put money into markets with high liquidity and make quick profits
If this round of overall US stock market rebound is strong
Then Bitcoin reaching 80000 this round would be the top
It will fluctuate back and forth around the 70,000 range for a long time
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $QQQ $xQQQ #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
Currently continuing to invest 100u monthly hoping to reach the target of 10 shares😉
Pre-market and recent dynamics: The US stock market is currently in the pre-market trading session. Recently, QQQ has been fluctuating narrowly between $705 and $714. As the performance of tech stocks and large-cap weighted stocks (such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, etc.) influences the overall market, the Nasdaq 100 index, after experiencing volatility in the past few weeks, is now attempting to establish a more solid support and defense above the $700 level.
📈 Key factors affecting recent market trends
1. Rotation between large tech stocks and AI themes:
As the core ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, QQQ's movement heavily depends on the tech giants in its components. Recently, market funds have been seeking balance between AI concept stocks and the semiconductor sector, with related companies' earnings reports and outlooks continuously influencing market sentiment.
2. Overall economy and interest rate expectations:
Investors are closely watching the upcoming interest rate moves by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), inflation data, and forthcoming economic indicators, which will directly impact the valuation of high-growth tech stocks.
💡 Pre-market observation highlights
Key support and resistance: In the short term, it is necessary to continuously monitor whether the $700 level (a strong psychological and structural support) can hold steadily; on the upside, a breakthrough and stable hold above $715 - $720 would signal a bullish return to the offensive.On August 19, Moderna surged 177% in a single day.
It jumped directly from $63 to $174. Market cap increased by nearly $45 billion in just one day. Shorts lost $5.5 billion on paper that day.
A vaccine stock. Not AI, not chips, but a cancer vaccine.
——
Moderna and Merck's personalized skin cancer vaccine succeeded in Phase 3 clinical trials.
In plain language: after tumor removal, this vaccine significantly reduces the chances of cancer recurrence and metastasis.
In the past two to three years, the market thought the mRNA pandemic dividend was over, and Moderna was almost treated like a forgotten corpse.
But a set of cancer data directly slapped that notion in the face.
····
The next day it retraced over 20%, profit-taking occurred.
But on August 25, Barclays raised the target price, pushing it up 14% again, closing around 158.
It’s not dead just because it dropped; some are seriously repricing it.
——
My judgment:
The AI narrative is too crowded. The market is extremely hungry for "real breakthroughs outside AI."
Anything that can prove "technology can truly save lives" will be wildly priced.
I won’t chase it just because of a one-day surge, nor will I dismiss it because of a pullback the next day. Scientific progress is real, but pricing may be ahead of commercialization. $MRNA Sometimes, you really have to trust the trendline!
This weekly "super Optimus Prime" has directly broken out of the descending channel that suppressed it for more than half a year.
If $57,800 is truly the bottom of this cycle, then my previous judgment on the cycle was indeed a bit slow; the bottom came faster, and the market started earlier than the traditional cycle.
I was always waiting for the "last dip," but the market kept squeezing shorts consecutively and just took off. Missing out is definitely frustrating, but chasing FOMO to buy around $80,000 carries even greater risk.
The weekly breakout indicates the structure has strengthened, but it doesn't mean BTC will keep rising indefinitely. Historically, after a "long consolidation followed by a single week rise of over 20%" scenario, the mid-term continuation rate is relatively high, but the subsequent maximum drawdown median is about 14.5%.
Based on this cycle's high, the normal pullback zone is roughly between $68,000 and $72,000.
My plan is simple:
- Pull back to the trendline around $72,000–$74,000, try small positions to test
- If ETF inflows continue and the weekly chart shows a stop in the decline around $68,000–$70,000, add positions in batches
- If the weekly candle closes below $65,000, treat it as a false breakout and stop bottom-fishing
- If the market doesn't pull back and holds above $82,000, I won't chase with large positions.
Wait for $80,000 to $82,000 to turn from resistance into support before considering following.
Missing the lowest point doesn't mean the whole cycle is lost. This time, I'd rather earn less than feel regret from missing out and lose discipline when emotions run hottest.$BTC # US Expands Sanctions on Iran, Strait Resumption Negotiations Progress, Personal View
The US has implemented a new round of expanded sanctions on Iran, covering shipping, gold, digital assets, aviation, and technology sectors, attempting to force Iran to concede through economic isolation. At the same time, under Oman's mediation, negotiations to resume navigation through the Strait of Hormuz are advancing. This model of imposing sanctions while negotiating is the most accurate reflection of the current Middle East power play.
On one hand, sanctions are intensified to apply pressure; on the other, diplomatic channels are tacitly allowed to continue communication. The US strategy is clear: it does not choose immediate large-scale military conflict but opts for extreme economic pressure to secure more favorable terms at the negotiating table. However, the increased sanctions themselves raise Iran's negotiation bottom line. Iran has repeatedly stated that full restoration of navigation through the strait requires sanctions relief and cessation of military threats, making it difficult to achieve compromise through pressure alone. China Economic Net...
Oman has taken the lead in proposing practical solutions such as temporary channels and joint mine clearance, indicating that resumption has moved from verbal demands to a technical framework. However, temporary channels do not equal full reopening; significant disagreements remain regarding warship passage, channel management, and security risks. There is still a considerable distance from the strait fully returning to its previous shipping status.
For the bulk commodity market, the market has already begun trading on the expectation of "improved strait navigation," with crude oil experiencing a phased decline, but the expectation is very fragile. If the negotiation process stalls or sanctions trigger Iranian countermeasures, the risk of the strait will be rapidly repriced, and oil prices could rebound at any time. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be fulfilled?
I believe Anthropic's core purpose in disclosing a $30 trillion TAM is not to forecast revenue but to build a narrative framework for the IPO valuation, yet this figure still raises doubts about actual profitability support.
According to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal: Anthropic expects revenue of only $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028, accounting for 0.6% of the TAM, indicating that it also acknowledges the current market penetration is very low. Meanwhile, SpaceX's TAM was $28.5 trillion at its IPO, slightly lower than Anthropic's, but the two have vastly different business models—SpaceX has clear launch orders and quantifiable deliveries, whereas AI enterprise software's knowledge work demand is highly abstract and difficult to measure with traditional TAM models.
TAM calculations assume capturing all potential demand, but the enterprise software market faces intense competition, high customer switching costs, and model homogenization issues. Although Anthropic's Claude leads in safety and alignment, it has yet to establish irreplaceable pricing power. If revenue truly reaches $200 billion by 2028, it requires a compound annual growth rate exceeding 100%, meaning it must capture over 15% of global enterprise AI spending in the next three years, while Microsoft, Google, and Amazon already hold over 60% combined market share.
TAM ≠ addressable market; high valuations require a real business closed loop to support them, otherwise it's just a numbers game
@OKX星球 ETF attracted 500 million in one day, but the market turned red—where did the money go?
The US spot ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $500 million yesterday—$BTC 314 million, Ethereum 180 million. Institutions are buying with real money, yet the market is all red: Bitcoin dropped below 79,000, altcoins collectively stagnated, generally falling by three to four percent.
So where is the money? There's a detail on-chain: the Bitcoin shorts that were just 2% away from liquidation the day before yesterday gave up and closed their shorts yesterday, then flipped to open $34 million in long positions at an average price just above 80,000, and now they're at a floating loss again. Shorts being wiped out and flipping to longs—is this a signal of surrender or a signal of taking the baton?
In the whole market, only $HYPE stands out, reversing to green at $81.8 against the trend. The most popular saying in the community: the entire market is still in a bear market, only HYPE is in a bull market and is expected to continue making new all-time highs.
Institutions are buying, prices are falling, whales are flipping to longs, and HYPE is running solo—this divergence will eventually have to choose a direction. $SKHYNIX Hynix 1241, pulled up from 1182 to 1252, a 6% increase in one day. The news says "Taobao flagship store removed all products, plans to cease operations" — translating this means: Hynix is withdrawing from the Chinese retail market. But the stock price didn’t fall; instead, it rose, indicating the market might think this isn’t a big deal — after all, Hynix’s core business is B2B, not retail. 😂
SAR=1151 below, EMA21=1222, EMA55=1206 underneath, price stands above all moving averages, trend turning stronger. RSI6=61.85, neutral to slightly strong. But KDJ’s J value has surged to 108.6, K=82.24, D=69.06 — J breaking 100 means short-term momentum is very strong, but it could also mean the short term has entered an extremely overbought zone. If 1250 holds, Hynix may continue to push higher; if it pulls back after the rally, support might be around 1200.
Hynix’s performance in the memory sector is stronger than SanDisk and Micron. SanDisk is still struggling below 1500, while Hynix has already returned to 1240. The HBM narrative is sexier than typical memory chips, so the market gives Hynix a higher premium. But the question is — if the memory sector as a whole is correcting, how long can Hynix remain independently strong?
Comment below, do you think Hynix can reach 1300? Or is 1250 the peak for this wave? My account is still empty, but I’m curious about your views. 🫡
Removing the Taobao flagship store, withdrawing from the Chinese retail market — if this were a consumer goods company, it might be a major negative. But for Hynix, B2B business is the core. The contraction of retail channels might actually indicate it’s focusing resources on more profitable businesses. If you disagree, come argue, show your trades. 😅It's completely messed up!
#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold?
I'm Dao Ge. BTC has broken through $80,000 again. This round of rally is accompanied by short covering and spot buying inflows. Last week, ETF net inflows reached $1.92 billion, the largest single-week inflow in nearly 10 months. After the price enters a high level, the proportion of short-term holders in profit rises, increasing profit-taking pressure. This week, PCE inflation, Jackson Hole speech, and employment benchmark revisions are key events. Breaking through $80,000 is just the first step; holding steady requires continued support from ETF funds, spot trading, and macro risk appetite.
Currently, the $78,000 to $79,000 range is a critical zone for bulls and bears to contest. If the price continues to find support near $78,000, the $80,000 level will be repeatedly tested; if it falls below $77,000, the strength of this rebound needs to be reassessed. Nvidia's earnings report and core PCE data are the main upcoming variables, and their results will directly determine the direction. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Dao Ge has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · Q3 · Issue 103 · Aspirin · Cyclical Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective ETH has rebounded from about $1,500 to around $2,547, an increase of over 60%. Such a market move is enough to change position profits and losses, and it’s easy for people to directly interpret "rising" as "a new trend has been established." But these two judgments are not the same: ETH/USD answers how much valuation has recovered from the low, while ETH/BTC answers whether capital has started to consistently prefer ETH. Separating these two lines is necessary to clearly see what really needs to be verified in the next two months. 1. What has this rally confirmed? This rally first changed the trend structure. BTC has crossed back above the 200-day moving average and the weekly bull market support zone, pushing the 50-week moving average right in front, indicating that the rebound since July can no longer be lightly dismissed as a typical bear market bounce. Historically, after truly crossing the 50-week moving average, the mid-term bear market often gradually exits the stage; however, in 2015 and 2018, there were also false breakouts where the price surged past the bull market support zone but was pushed back near the 50-week moving average. Therefore, what can be confirmed at this stage is that the trend is repairing, but it cannot yet be confirmed that the repair is complete. The rise is not only due to short covering. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that the single transaction limit for long-term Treasury liquidity repos would be raised from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and the market immediately traded with eased pressure on long-term interest rates. It is necessary to state the facts accurately: the expansion amountThe most important thing in this BTC cycle is to watch which surrenders first: price surrender or time surrender.
Classic bear market indicators like MVRV, Z-Score, and Realized Price have not yet fully entered the extreme ranges seen in the past. In other words, BTC still has room for a deeper price purge.
But another possibility is that it won't crash further and will instead complete the bear market through time.
If BTC can consistently hold above 57K and doesn't hit new lows by the end of 2026, then the logic of the "last dip" itself should become invalid. $BTC surged to $81.2K before pulling back below $78K, while $ETH slipped toward $2.46K. High-flyers like $ZEC and $HYPE also gave back part of their gains as traders locked in profits. The move looks less like a change in fundamentals and more like caution ahead of Nvidia's earnings report. After a massive week that saw $BTC gain over 24% and billions in shorts liquidated, sentiment has reached extreme levels. Now the focus shifts to Nvidia. A strong report could reignite risk appetite across cr1. Institutional ETFs (Incremental Capital Indicator) Last week (8.17-8.23), the total net inflow of US spot ETFs reached $2.6 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow since October 2025. BTC-ETF net inflow was $1.92 billion, and ETH-ETF net inflow was $697 million. However, the inflow intensity significantly weakened in the past 24 hours, with daily net inflow dropping from a peak of $606 million to $210 million, showing divergence at the high level. Structurally, funds are highly concentrated, with BlackRock IBIT accounting for over 80% of BTC ETF purchases, while other small and medium ETFs saw sporadic small outflows; ETH-ETF experienced intermittent small outflows, indicating institutional allocation focus clearly favors BTC. Continuous ETF volume expansion is a necessary condition for a breakout market. 2. On-Chain Whales (Large Chip Movements) On-chain data shows differentiated behavior among whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC. Near the 81,000 level, some whales transferred out 7,700 BTC (about $576 million) to exchanges over three days, representing profit-taking at high levels. Another group of long-term whales continued placing orders below 77,000 to absorb supply, maintaining a total holding of 3.06 million BTC without collective sell-off. ETH whales rebalanced positions, with some addresses swapping ETH for WBTC, tilting funds toward BTC; altcoin whales engaged in swing trading without long-term hoarding. 3. Smart Money Addresses (Altcoin Rotation Drivers) Tracking the smart money address database shows that the current stablecoin position ratio of smart money has increased to 27% #US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
These two pieces of news together are quite interesting: the US is intensifying sanctions, yet oil prices are actually falling.
The latest round of US sanctions targets about 60 individuals, entities, and vessels, continuing to increase economic pressure on Iran; meanwhile, Iran and Oman are resuming negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz, discussing temporary shipping corridors and mine clearance plans.
So the market is clearly more concerned about the second matter now.
Brent $BZ once dropped to about $86.8, WTI fell to about $80.9, with a single-day drop close to 2%. Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas transportation, so as long as the probability of resuming navigation rises, the previously highest "geopolitical risk premium" will be quickly squeezed out.
Sanctions are a slow variable, Strait navigation is a fast variable.
Sanctions will suppress Iran's economy and exports in the long term, but for short-term oil prices, whether an oil tanker can safely pass through Hormuz is more direct than dozens of additional sanctions lists. This is actually a relatively comfortable combination for BTC and tech stocks. Falling oil prices mean reduced energy inflation pressure, and the risk of the Federal Reserve being forced to turn hawkish again will also be slightly lower.
So a few days ago, the market was still trading on "US-Iran escalation → oil price breaking $100," but now the storyline has changed to "sanctions continue, but shipping may resume."
The most troublesome part of geopolitical trading is here: the news looks increasingly severe, but prices may have already started trading peace.BTC slipping below $80,000 looks more like a test of market structure than a clean breakdown. The key signal is relative performance: BTC and ETH are down around 2%, while SOL is off more than 4%, which points to risk being cut first at the higher-beta end.
My stance is cautious, not bearish. With Iran sanctions and policy expectations still in focus, I would treat an $80,000 recovery as confirmation rather than assume buyers will defend the level immediately. Until then, capital preservation is likely to outweigh aggressive dip buying.
Just my read, not advice.BTC contract trading volume is about $86.4 billion, up 75% in 24 hours; open interest is about $45.8 billion, with basically no growth, and the funding rate is about +0.0047%.
Trading volume surged, but open interest did not increase correspondingly, indicating that today’s activity is more like intense turnover and two-way liquidation, rather than a large number of new one-sided positions entering the market.
The market is very hot, but the trend is not as clean as imagined. Recently, amid the wave of U.S. Treasury bond sell-offs, the U.S. Treasury Department stepped in to "rescue the market" but failed to reverse the rising trend in yields. As of August 25, the 30-year Treasury yield was still trading above 5.2%. The dollar fell, while the renminbi, gold, and Bitcoin rose, causing the stock market to pull back. Will the U.S. debt storm trigger a financial crisis? 1. Five Major Reasons for the U.S. Debt Storm 1. The recurring U.S.-Iran situation has driven up inflation expectations and the term premium of long-term U.S. Treasuries. Coupled with previous market concerns about Fed rate hikes, this has become the trigger for the U.S. Treasury storm. 2. U.S. currency oversupply, fiscal discipline has lost control, and U.S. Treasury credit has been damaged. U.S. Treasury debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with debt at its peak. The budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 is expected to be about $1.9 trillion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP, and interest payments for debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion, accounting for about 19% of fiscal revenue. The market fears that debt financing will not circulate and can only be sustained by excessive money issuance, diluting the credit of dollar assets. 3. Tech giants' wave of debt issuance squeezes demand for government bonds. Since 2026, tech giants such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle have issued about $223 billion in AI-related corporate bonds, twice the total issuance in 2025. Corporate bonds yield higher rates than U.S. Treasuries, crowding out some bond buyers and causing U.S. Treasury yields to steeper further. 4. Global de-dollarization accelerates, overseas buyers withdraw. The U.S. is waging a tariff war against the world, disrupting the global free trade order, weaponizing the dollar, and triggering de-dollarization efforts worldwide. As of March 2026, the US dollar accounts for a share of global central bank reservesBTC fluctuated around $79,500 today, touching 80,000 intraday before pulling back, with a weekly gain of about 22%, the strongest in two years. ETFs have seen net inflows for 6 consecutive days, with a record $2.7 billion accumulated in August, led continuously by IBIT. Tonight, the PCE inflation data will be released, marking the most critical battle before the September rate cut. The resistance above is the 80,000 round number, with support between 76,000-77,000. Next to watch: the Jackson Hole Symposium on 8/28. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC #ETF #每日复盘