Orbit Post Sitemap
The core conclusion of today's global market is: **Risk appetite is relatively strong, but it is not an unconditional shift to bullish.** Nvidia's earnings report and guidance once again significantly exceeded market expectations, leading Asian tech stocks to rise early this morning; however, the US July PCE year-on-year remains as high as 3.7%, the dollar stays near recent highs, and the risk of a Fed rate hike in September has not disappeared. Meanwhile, oil prices have fallen consecutively, temporarily easing energy inflation pressure. The most important market observation today is whether the AI-driven risk appetite brought by Nvidia can outweigh the pressure from interest rates, and whether BTC can launch a renewed attack above $80,000. 1. What happened overnight? 1. Nvidia once again delivered earnings that exceeded expectations, providing the most important validation for the AI rally. Facts: Nvidia's Q2 revenue reached $96.22 billion, higher than the market expectation of $92.17 billion; adjusted EPS was $2.22, exceeding the market expectation of $2.10. Data center revenue reached $89 billion, more than doubling year-on-year. More importantly, the company expects Q3 revenue to reach $108 billion ±2%, significantly above the previous market expectation of about $104.2 billion. Nvidia also rarely provided a longer-term forecast, expecting revenue growth of about 70% for the next fiscal year ending January 2028, while the previous market average expectation was only about 44%. Market reaction: Nvidia initially weakened after hours but then quickly turned positive, with after-hours gains close to 5%. This morning, the Asian tech supply chain was simultaneously boosted: MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index rose about 0.7%; South KoreaVenture capital firm Hack VC's associated address is suspected of selling $3 million $ENA through market maker Wintermute
4 hours ago, address 0x2a5…590CF transferred 21.85 million ENA into Wintermute's deposit address through multiple intermediaries; ENA has surged 58.09% in the past week
Wallet address 0x2a500f79c651759F12e67FeDb7748eF2449590CF
Hack VC has invested in many projects and has a sharp eye; previous projects like myx and grass had investment institutions behind them including Hack VC, and its sales are basically always at peak prices #伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码
The boss has something to say
Ethereum long position at 2450+, take profit at 2500, locking in 50 points of profit. This entry was positioned at the lower boundary of the consolidation range; the bears failed to break through three times in a row, and the 15-minute chart shows consecutive bullish candles confirming support. The target is set at 2500, then exit. No greed on short-term trades, keep the rhythm right.
There is new progress on the Hormuz front. Iran and Oman have agreed on a temporary joint corridor and a framework for joint mine clearance, but Iran emphasizes this does not mean a full resumption of navigation. The US will not lift the maritime blockade, so the corridor will not fully open. The US simultaneously expanded sanctions, listing nearly 60 entities covering oil, shipping, finance, and cross-border payments.
Oil prices continue to fall; the market has priced in negotiations on the corridor. But the problem is whether money can be settled once ships can pass. Sanctions block financial and payment channels, so oil trade still cannot proceed smoothly. The corridor may open, but transactions cannot be completed, so the risk premiums on oil and gold will not fully dissipate.
On the macro side, PCE data met expectations, with core inflation at 3.3% showing no cooling. Before Powell's speech on Friday, the market will lack clear direction. Bitcoin is oscillating near 80000; all long positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback. The focus ahead is on Powell's tone and whether Nvidia's earnings can beat expectations. With intense events approaching, reduce positions; risk control is more important than direction. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on trades. Good luck.$NVDA Nvidia's earnings impact on energy storage and semiconductors. $SNDK
📊 Key earnings data
· Revenue: $96.2 billion, +106% year-over-year, exceeding expectations.
· Data Center: $89 billion, +117% year-over-year.
· EPS: $2.22-2.46, exceeding expectations.
· Gross margin: 75.0%.
· Q3 guidance: expected $108 billion, exceeding expectations.
· Next fiscal year: expected revenue growth of about 70%.
⚡ Impact on energy storage and semiconductors
· Semiconductors (memory) short-term positive: Nvidia acknowledged that high prices of HBM and other memory chips are the main cost pressure and predicted prices will continue to rise next year. This directly confirms the strong seller position of memory chips (such as Micron) in the AI industry chain.
· Energy storage (power) long-term logic: computing power expansion is clearly identified as bottlenecked by power shortages. Energy storage, as a key infrastructure ensuring stable power supply to data centers, has its demand expectations boosted by the earnings guidance.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 SanDisk latest price 1544.6, up 3.06%, intraday low 1443, high 1566. Rebounded from yesterday's low near 1443 to 1544, a rebound of over 100 points. Yesterday's lowest touched 1450, today directly recovered to 1544. Four things are pushing simultaneously. First, Nvidia's earnings blew up, the entire storage sector took off accordingly. Nvidia Q2 revenue 96.2 billion USD, up 106% year-on-year, exceeding expectations by nearly 4 billion USD. Data center revenue 89 billion USD, exceeding expectations by over 3 billion USD. Q3 guidance 105.8-110.1 billion USD. Nvidia rose over 4% after hours, directly driving strength across storage, optical communications, and AI cloud services — SanDisk and Micron up over 3%, Western Digital up over 2%. Nvidia is the absolute leader in AI computing power; its earnings validate the strong demand across the entire AI industry chain. Second, Kioxia-SanDisk plans to invest 1 trillion yen to build a new factory. According to Nikkei Asia and Bloomberg reports, the Kioxia-SanDisk alliance plans to build a third wafer fab in Kitakami City, Iwate Prefecture, Japan, with a total investment expected to exceed 1 trillion yen (about 42.2 billion RMB). The two CEOs will visit the Japanese Prime Minister's residence today to officially announce. Expansion is a long-term vote of confidence — putting real money down shows management's confidence in sustained AI storage demand. Third, Moody's upgraded the rating, delivering credit endorsement. Moody's upgraded SanDisk's corporate family rating and senior secured rating to Ba1, outlook stable. The rating agency upgrading ratings at a low stock price signals improved credit quality. Fourth, Jane BlackRock's affiliated wallet increased holdings overnight by 3620 BTC + 12,530 ETH! Are institutions quietly bottom-fishing, or is this the "automatic replenishment" from ETF subscriptions and redemptions? Just saw on-chain monitoring: BlackRock's ETF-related custody wallet showed large movements——
Increased holdings by 3620 BTC, increased holdings by 12,530 ETH
Many people got excited at first glance: "Wall Street giant buying on two fronts, is the bull market back?" Hold on. This move is most likely not BlackRock's trading desk actively buying, but rather IBIT/ETHA shares being subscribed → authorized participants sending tokens to the custody wallet to replenish the underlying assets.
In plain terms: Retail or institutional investors buy ETF shares, BlackRock passively receives orders and stocks up, it doesn't mean they are bullish on a pump tomorrow.
But the signal itself is not weak:
From 8.17 to 8.21 that week, IBIT had a net inflow of $1.33 billion, ETHA had a net inflow of $536.8 million, BlackRock took about 70% of the total BTC ETF inflows in the market
ETH/BTC has rebounded over 5% since July, institutions are clearly shifting exposure towards ETH
The affiliated wallet moving thousands of BTC at a time indicates real chips are flowing from exchanges to custody layers
My judgment:
In the short term, before BTC breaks out, 61.8k–64k remains a consolidation range; ETH is relatively strong, but don't get overconfident if 1900 doesn't hold. This news proves "institutions haven't withdrawn," not a "button for a surge tomorrow." Good morning, teachers. After Nvidia's earnings greatly exceeded expectations, how do I rank AI infrastructure stocks?
Let me clarify: This is my investment priority, not a ranking of company strength.
1st place: $xNVDA ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Fundamentals remain the strongest, with quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%. But market expectations are already very high, so it must continue to "beat expectations" to support its valuation.
2nd place: $VRT ⭐⭐⭐⭐
AI cabinet power consumption is increasing, so demand for power supplies, liquid cooling, and thermal management will continue to grow. I think this is currently a highly certain area but not yet crowded in research interest.
3rd place: $AVGO ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Benefiting from ASICs and AI networking, but the market has already priced in a lot of growth.
4th place: $MU ⭐⭐⭐
HBM logic is fine, but price increase expectations are already well traded; at this stage, I prefer to wait for a pullback.
Pick 3: AVGO, NVDA, VRT. One bets on networking, one on computing power, and one on cooling.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视
#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键 Bitcoin is now trading around $78.4K–$79K after briefly breaking above $80K and reaching roughly $81.2K, its highest level since May. But the move has several catalysts behind it — and that's what matters. 1️⃣ U.S. Treasury = major macro catalyst The Treasury announced plans to increase buybacks of longer-dated U.S. debt, helping push yields lower and putting pressure on the dollar. That has strengthened the broader “debasement trade”, benefiting both gold and Bitcoin. 2️⃣ The short squeeze ampl$BTC — THE MONEY FLOW IS GETTING HARDER TO IGNORE
Bitcoin's latest move has another important force behind it: institutional demand.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in nearly $2B across five trading sessions, marking one of the strongest weekly inflow periods since October 2025.
That's more than just a headline.
It shows that large pools of capital are still willing to gain Bitcoin exposure even after the market has already moved significantly higher.
🏦 BUT DON'T CONFUSE FLOWS WITH A GUARANTEED PUMP
Strong ETF inflows don't mean BTC can't correct.
Markets can still experience profit-taking, leverage flushes and macro-driven volatility.
What makes the current situation interesting is the persistence of the buying.
If institutions continue accumulating while BTC consolidates near major resistance, the market could be quietly building the demand needed for another expansion.
That's much healthier than a move driven purely by leveraged traders chasing green candles.
👀 WHAT I'M WATCHING NEXT
The next test is simple:
Does the money keep coming when Bitcoin stops going straight up?
If BTC pulls back but ETF demand remains positive, that could show buyers are using weakness to build positions.
If BTC breaks higher while inflows accelerate, the bullish momentum becomes even more convincing.
But if ETF flows suddenly weaken alongside a rejection at resistance, I'd become more cautious.
For now, the message is clear:
Institutional interest is back.
The question isn't whether Wall Street is buying.
The question is how long they keep buying.
Because if this accumulation continues, today's resistance could eventually become tomorrow's support. BlackRock backs with $312 million! $ETH one-hour chart hides danger, is this the last chance for bulls to get on board?
"Smart money is buying, institutions are buying, what are you hesitating about?"
BlackRock-related ETF wallets have increased holdings by 3,620 BTC and 12,530 ETH on Coinbase Prime over the past 10 hours, totaling about $312 million. The giant whales continue accumulating, with the ETH spot ETF seeing a net inflow of 75,150 ETH yesterday, signaling clear institutional support.
From a technical perspective, ETH's one-hour RSI(6) is 66.78, in a strong zone but not yet overbought, leaving room for further upside. The current price is around 2499, facing strong resistance between 2550-2650 USD. The long-short ratio is extremely skewed at 406%; if bulls stampede, the risk of a pullback cannot be ignored.
Trading strategy: Conservative followers enter long positions near 2423 and 2517; aggressive followers can enter long positions now. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Hard Asset Market: Bitcoin...
Putting the overall ranking panorama and Bitcoin's rise together, two conclusions can be drawn.
Judgment One: Global hard assets are about to increase in price
The common feature of this round of global asset price increases is that "things that cannot be printed" are all rising—Bitcoin, gold, silver rank top three, and the driving factor behind this is that the market no longer trusts the US dollar.
This is not simply a cryptocurrency market trend, but a macro-level global asset repricing.
Judgment Two: Bitcoin is entering a turning point window
In this round of Bitcoin price increase, externally there is a decline in the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds and a weakening US dollar; internally, 83% of Bitcoin is held long-term and not circulating, with few people trapped, gathering the right timing, conditions, and people.
The combination of these factors means this round of Bitcoin price increase is not just technical; it is very likely a turning point window.
However, a turning point does not mean it is unaffected; there are three key nodes worth attention:
1. The actual implementation effect of the new US Treasury repurchase regulations—if the repurchase scale is larger than expected, Bitcoin will continue to rise; otherwise, it will fall
2. The voting progress of the "CLARITY Act"—if the cryptocurrency regulatory bill is passed, Bitcoin will definitely surge
3. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in late September—if the Fed cuts rates, Bitcoin as a risk asset will rise in price.
At each key node, the market trend for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be tested again. $BTC This week, it returned to the $80,000 mark, with weekly gains of over 20%. Bears were stunned, and social media started shouting "mad bull" again. But this round of rally is fundamentally different from previous rallies — not just emotional FOMO, but the result of institutional capital, macro expectations, and on-chain structure resonating together. First, ETF funds are rewriting the market's underlying tone. This is not a short-term pulse but a sustained wave of institutional buying. Data shows that US spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated a net inflow of about $2.26 billion over six trading days, with total inflows since August reaching $3.03 billion, surpassing the record set for all of April. On August 25 alone, ETFs attracted $338 million. BlackRock IBIT alone contributed about 68% of the inflow. What does this mean? Institutions are not "bottom-fishing" but "systematic accumulation." Unlike retail investors chasing gains and cutting losses, ETF buying rhythms often represent a longer-term allocation logic—they look at quarterly or even annual directions rather than daily fluctuations. Second, the macro environment is loosening restrictions on risk assets. The direct macro trigger for this round of rally is the U.S. Treasury's announcement to expand the long-term Treasury repurchase scale to no less than $4 billion per session. The market interprets this as a positive signal for improved liquidity. Meanwhile, the July core PCE data was released, showing inflationary pressures have not worsened more than expected. Of course, risks remain—Federal Reserve Chairman Wash is scheduled to deliver his first major speech after taking office at Jackson Hole on August 28. If he makes a statement,2. White House Summit: Trump's "Triple Boost" and a Fatal Flaw
On August 19, Trump convened crypto giants including Coinbase, Ripple, and Gemini in the Roosevelt Room of the White House. He dropped three major bombs:
First, "to completely end the war on cryptocurrency."
Second, the U.S. government has discussed accumulating a "substantial amount" of Bitcoin — upgrading from "just hoarding without selling" to "possibly buying."
Third, urging the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act by September 15. This act would permanently exclude Bitcoin and Ethereum from the securities category.
Once the news broke, Bitcoin surged past $71,700. Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, directly stated: "Investors should now position for a rise to $100,000 by the end of 2026."
But there is a fatal flaw.
Traders at prediction market Kalshi believe the probability of the CLARITY Act passing before the end of the year is less than 25%, and the chance of implementation before April 2027 is also under 50%. The bill has been stalled in the Senate for months, with Democrats demanding the addition of clauses prohibiting officials like Trump from profiting from their own crypto businesses.
The bullish calls are loud, but whether the bill will pass is another matter. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $BTC $ETH $SOL When supply chain costs rise, ordinary companies choose to absorb them. But Nvidia is not an ordinary company—it holds a 75% gross margin and 70%–90% of the global AI chip market share. So, when memory manufacturers raised prices, Nvidia directly passed the bill to customers: server prices increased by over 15%.
Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI—some of the most capital-rich tech giants in history—still pay the price. But this time, the price hike exposed a truth Silicon Valley is reluctant to face: their past approach of burning money to stack chips has reached a dead end.
5% utilization rate, 96% compression rate
Silicon Valley AI companies are burning the world’s most expensive chips in an astonishingly inefficient way. A founder of an AI chip startup revealed that the industry’s theoretical utilization rate of Nvidia GPUs is below 15%, with some estimates as low as 5%.
The problem isn’t the chips themselves—these GPUs have millions of parallel computing capabilities—but the software’s inability to efficiently allocate data when thousands of chips operate simultaneously in data centers, causing severe “traffic jams” and a large number of chips idling and waiting.
Meanwhile, Reuters pointed out that across the ocean, after US export controls blocked China’s DeepSeek from accessing the most powerful chips, they used a mathematical shorthand called “multi-head latent attention” to compress AI model memory requirements by about 96%, creating world-class products at extremely low hardware costs.
Nvidia’s own panic
Ironically, even Nvidia itself fears this trend. Efficient, low-power AI models are becoming popular in Western markets, posing a direct threat to Nvidia’s business model. To address this, Nvidia recently spent $6 billion to acquire a license from San Francisco startup Poolside AI—whose software acts like a “traffic cop” in data centers, reorganizing data flow among thousands of GPUs to keep them truly busy.
Poolside co-CEO Eiso Kant bluntly stated: “People see those multi-billion-dollar financings and think training top models must be like that, but that’s not the case.” Poolside trained the encoding model Laguna in about eight weeks at very low cost, outperforming many larger models that cost hundreds of millions of dollars.
Physical limits reached, money is no longer the answer
“We are now in a world that demands unprecedented performance, but physics has been exhausted,” described an AI semiconductor entrepreneur.
Google’s parent company Alphabet just issued a 3.9 billion AUD bond this month to finance its data centers—even tech giants are hitting the ceiling on cash expenditures.
The first phase of the AI race was won by brute force: whoever could afford more computing power led the way. But China’s rise has proven that capital alone no longer guarantees dominance. Nvidia’s price hike is just the final death knell for this old era.
Silicon Valley can no longer rely on throwing money to stay ahead. It must pick up China’s “frugal software” playbook and start writing smarter code Global Assets: Bitcoin +27%
August isn't over yet, but the global capital markets have already shown a magical performance.
Top Tier: Hard Assets Explode Collectively
The top three "hard assets"—Bitcoin, silver, and gold—share one common trait: they cannot be printed by the dollar.
Bitcoin surged 27% in a single month, approaching $80,000; the world's largest gold ETF attracted $1.3 billion in a single day; silver's gains outpaced gold.
This is likely driven by a triple boost of safe-haven demand, physical supply shortages, and a surge in industrial demand.
Middle Tier: Stock Market Performance is Mediocre
Compared to the top hard assets, global stock markets in August can only be described as "not falling is winning."
Typically, when risk aversion rises, the dollar should strengthen, but this time the dollar index fell 1.11% within the month, while the euro, pound, and yen all appreciated against the dollar.
This indicates the market is worried not about "risk" itself, but about "the dollar's credit."
Bottom Tier: A-shares, Hong Kong Stocks, and Brazil
Brazil's stock index is at the bottom, followed closely by the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index. The RMB slightly depreciated by 0.46%, but remained more stable than the stock indices.
Why are these assets falling?
Because global capital is buying gold and Bitcoin to hedge against the dollar's monetary credit risk, which means that between safe-haven assets and future growth, capital is choosing the former. Stocks are deeply tied to growth, so naturally, they decline.
This is easy to understand: since August, even U.S. Treasuries—the world's safest asset—have been wildly sold off by the market, let alone riskier assets like stocks!
$BTC $CORE Core Ecosystem: Is BTCFi a real demand or just a big DApp migration?
EVM compatible + low Gas, DeFi / gaming / NFT all intact on Core, BTC is staked to become lstBTC and then goes into the lending pool. The process is smooth, but ask yourself: are users here for BTC yields, or for early airdrops/APY? When TVL rises, it's called the revival of BTCFi; when APY crashes, it's the next abandoned EVM chain.
👇 How long can you stay in the Core ecosystem? Will you run after earning profits, or truly build a long-term position in $CORE? 8.27 SOL early morning analysis
Short near 103
Entry: 105.5
Target: 98.5-98.1
SOL early morning trend is bearish, short at rebound to resistance or short on breakout, stop loss above resistance zone, target previous low, stop loss if it breaks above #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $SOL $CORE 2.1B total supply + 81 years release: Is Core a mini BTC or an inflation trap?
CORE total supply is 2.1 billion (100 times that of BTC), fully released over 81 years, with an annual reduction of 3.61%, plus Gas burning. The narrative replicates BTC scarcity, but in reality, the early block rewards are all circulating selling pressure. Dual staking (BTC+CORE) pulls yield tiers, essentially forcing you to lock $CORE to earn a bit more BTC yield. Before the coin price rises, this is just a pie promised to early stakers.
👇 Do you believe Core can become the foundation of BTCFi, or do you think it’s just another EVM clone chain? #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Although Trump has been bullish on $BTC
The US government, like Bhutan, sells $BTC every now and then,
The US sold 24 bitcoins again early this morning1. Main subject of the surge and pullback: Nvidia NVDA (US stock)
1. At the moment the earnings report was released:
Revenue 96.2 billion, far exceeding the expected 92.2 billion, after-hours immediately surged +4%
2. Then the market looked at the next quarter's guidance and found that the guidance did not meet Wall Street's very high expectations
Funds began to take profits, falling back from +4%, with gains shrinking significantly.
2. Related stocks that surged and then pulled back
US storage sector: SanDisk SNDK, Micron, Seagate, initially driven up by Nvidia, then fell back in sync
Bitcoin BTC: Brief small rebound right after the earnings report, then unable to rise further, returning to a weak consolidation without a strong bullish candle
Altcoins in the crypto space: STX, PENGU all showed weak rebounds and then continued to pull back
3. Explaining the whole situation clearly
This earnings report itself is very good (positive)
But the market had previously set very high expectations, everyone was hoping for a significant upward revision in next quarter's guidance, which was not delivered.
Fund logic:
Positive news lands → short-term surge → seeing future expectations are not explosive enough, immediately take profits and collectively exit, causing the market to surge and then pull back.
The blogger's screenshot only showed the initial after-hours surge of over 4%, omitting the later plunge and pullback, so it looks contradictory.
⚠️ Market interpretation, not investment advice. $STX 1. Main subject of the surge and pullback: Nvidia NVDA (US stock)
1. At the moment the earnings report was released:
Revenue was 96.2 billion, far exceeding the expected 92.2 billion, after-hours immediately surged +4%
2. Then the market looked at the next quarter's earnings guidance and found that the guidance did not meet Wall Street's very high expectations
Funds began to take profits, falling back from +4%, with gains shrinking significantly.
2. Related assets that surged and then pulled back
US stock memory sector: SanDisk SNDK, Micron, Seagate, initially driven up by Nvidia, then fell back in sync
Bitcoin BTC: Brief small rebound right after the earnings report, then unable to rise further, returning to a weak consolidation without a strong bullish candle
Altcoins in the crypto space: STX, PENGU all showed weak rebounds and then continued to pull back
3. Explaining the whole situation clearly
This earnings report itself is very good (positive)
But the market had previously set expectations very high, everyone was hoping for a significant upward revision in next quarter's guidance, which was not delivered.
Fund logic:
Positive news lands → short-term surge → seeing future expectations are not explosive enough, immediately take profits and exit collectively, causing the market to surge and then pull back.
The blogger's screenshot only showed the initial after-hours surge of over 4%, omitting the later plunge and pullback, so it looks contradictory.
⚠️ Market analysis, not investment advice. $ETH 1. Main subject of the surge and pullback: Nvidia NVDA (US stock)
1. At the moment the earnings report was released:
Revenue 96.2 billion, far exceeding the expected 92.2 billion, after-hours immediately surged +4%
2. Then the market looked at the next quarter's earnings guidance and found that the guidance did not meet Wall Street's very high expectations
Funds began to take profits, falling back from +4%, with gains shrinking significantly.
2. Related stocks that surged and then pulled back
US storage sector: SanDisk SNDK, Micron, Seagate, initially lifted by Nvidia, then fell back in sync
Bitcoin BTC: Brief small rebound right after the earnings report, then unable to rise further, returning to a weak consolidation without a strong bullish candle
Altcoins in the crypto space: STX, PENGU all showed weak rebounds, then continued to pull back
3. Explaining the whole situation clearly
This earnings report itself is very good (positive)
But the market had previously set expectations very high, everyone was hoping for a significant upward revision in next quarter's guidance, which was not delivered.
Fund logic:
Positive news lands → short-term surge → seeing future expectations are not explosive enough, immediately take profits and collectively exit, causing the market to surge and then pull back.
The blogger's screenshot only showed the initial after-hours surge of over 4%, omitting the later plunge and pullback, so it looks contradictory.
⚠️ Market interpretation, not investment advice. $BTC 🟠$BTC recent strength isn't happening in isolation.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly attracted nearly $2B in just five trading sessions, marking one of the strongest weekly inflow periods since October 2025.
That's a meaningful development.
The important part isn't simply the size of the inflow.
It's the fact that institutional demand is showing up consistently while BTC is already trading at elevated levels.
🏦 WHY THIS MATTERS
ETF flows give us a different view of the market.
Price can move because of leverage, short covering or speculative positioning.
But persistent spot ETF inflows indicate that capital is being allocated through regulated investment vehicles.
That doesn't guarantee Bitcoin goes straight up.
Institutions can accumulate while expecting volatility.
They can also have a much longer time horizon than retail traders.
But it does tell us that demand hasn't disappeared.
👀 THE NEXT TEST
Now I want to see what happens if BTC stops moving vertically.
If $BTC consolidates or pulls back modestly while ETF inflows remain strong, that would be even more constructive.
It would suggest larger players are willing to absorb weakness rather than only chase breakouts.
On the other hand, if inflows suddenly slow while BTC struggles at resistance, that would be a signal to become more cautious.
So I'm not interested in blindly chasing the headline.
I'm watching the trend in capital flows.
Nearly $2B in five sessions is significant.
The bigger question is whether that demand continues.
Because one strong week can create excitement.
Persistent institutional accumulation can create a much stronger foundation for the next phase of the Bitcoin market. $BTC UNDER PRESSURE NEAR $79K — LIQUIDITY MATTERS
$BTC faces selling pressure near $79K after failing to hold $80K, reflecting profit-taking rather than a confirmed reversal. The bigger story remains liquidity: easing yields, a softer dollar and resilient ETF demand could support risk assets if financial conditions improve.
$ETH is holding near $2.4K–$2.5K, showing relative strength despite the pullback. Traders should watch liquidity, ETF flows and macro data before assuming the next major move#财报观察员：NVIDIA Exceeds Expectations, Software Revenue Begins to Materialize
NVIDIA's earnings report is rock solid.
So the question is, with data this good, why did the stock still fall after hours?
When the earnings were released, the stock dropped 1.3% to 2.7% in after-hours trading. It's not that the performance was bad; the market's expectations were just ridiculously high. After nine consecutive quarters of beating expectations, this 106% growth rate is actually the slowest recently. The market doesn't want "good," it wants "perfect."
But what’s truly worth noting is another change—AI is starting to make money, and it's on the software side.
For the crypto community, there are two signals.
First, capital expenditure on AI infrastructure is still climbing. NVIDIA itself says the market space is 3 to 4 trillion, AWS added 2 million GPUs, and backlog orders exceed 2 trillion. Computing power costs have no room to decrease in the short term; miners and AI projects will have to continue bearing hardware costs. But this also means the demand side's foundation is extremely solid.
Second, the market is starting to nitpick. Even NVIDIA at this level of exceeding expectations can't push the stock higher, indicating that tolerance for storytelling is decreasing and there is a growing demand for real profit realization. For the crypto AI track and DePIN projects, pure hype will become increasingly difficult to sustain; only those with real business support will remain.
NVIDIA's earnings report has no direct short-term impact on the market, but its direction is very clear—AI infrastructure is still sprinting ahead, computing power costs won't drop soon, but the certainty of the track is getting stronger and stronger.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Grayscale's application for a ZEC ETF: the core conflict over approval lies in improving external conditions versus the inherent clash between privacy and regulatory transparency.
✅ Reasons for approval: The SEC has concluded its investigation of the Zcash Foundation; there are precedents of Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs being approved; the CLARITY Act provides a clearer regulatory framework; the use of a cash redemption structure reduces compliance risks; institutional funds provide backing (DCG plans to inject about 200,000 ZEC).
❌ Reasons for rejection: Zcash’s shielded transactions can hide sender, amount, and other information, directly conflicting with the audit transparency required by ETFs; the 2.5% management fee is more than 10 times that of Bitcoin ETFs; DCG’s holdings are highly concentrated (about 44%), raising concerns over conflicts of interest; historical trust premium and discount volatility has been severe, reaching ±55%.
Summary: External conditions are improving, but the “inherent flaw” of privacy coin ETFs remains unchanged. Whether the SEC approves depends on whether it is willing to set this precedent for “privacy.” BTC rose 23% this week. Previously, the market was suppressed by cautious sentiment, with short positions piling up more and more. As a result, two large-scale liquidations directly shattered expectations: $1.37 billion was liquidated on the 19th, and another $739 million on the 21st. Notably, after squeezing out high leverage, the market did not immediately enter a crazier leverage-adding phase. Perpetual open interest fell back to 284,000 BTC, and the funding rate returned to neutral, indicating this rally was not purely driven by contracts propping each other up.
Spot and perpetual trading volume expanded by 188% over the week, CME grew by 152%, and net inflows of 31,740 BTC came from ETFs and other products, showing institutional funds have at least started to re-enter and observe. Coupled with expectations around US long bond operations, the market brought liquidity stories back into play, naturally making BTC the most sensitive direction. However, a strong rebound does not mean the trend has reversed. If volume quickly shrinks, ETFs turn to outflows, or there is insufficient support during pullbacks, sentiment can flip rapidly. The biggest mistake at such times is to treat a week's breakout as a risk-free reason to chase the rally.
I prefer to see this as a market structure repair: shorts were flushed out, capital warmed up, and risk appetite rose. Going forward, don’t just focus on daily price changes; pay attention to volume, funding rates, and spot buying after pullbacks. Only if the market can withstand corrections can the trend be considered truly stable for $BTC
(This is personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 The LIT position was taken long by two people together, indicating it wasn't a random guess, but don't mistake a large position for a high win rate; the crypto world loves to punish that kind of confidence.
Key data here: Coin LIT, direction long, 5x leverage, entry price 3.37, position size $77,117, largest position $47,085, another $30,032.
5x leverage doesn't seem outrageous, but in practice it can still teach you a lesson, especially with split entries like this. On the surface, it looks like controlling the pace, but in reality, it might be due to uncoordinated emotions, buying more as it falls, and getting more anxious the more you add.
If you really want to be bullish, first figure out whether you're profiting from the correct directional move or just gambling on short-term volatility. The former relies on logic, the latter on luck, and luck is the least valuable thing.
A veteran trader's advice: don't treat position size as faith. If the direction is wrong and you stubbornly hold on, you won't just break even—you'll get crushed by the market.
Cut losses when you should, preserve your capital, and don't wait for forced liquidation to make decisions for you. $ENA has been doing pretty well these past couple of days, with a nearly 58.09% increase over the past week, currently priced at $0.14+
But the sharper the rise, the more you need to watch the moves of the big holders.
The venture capital firm Hack VC's linked address, that tricky guy, is suspected of offloading $3 million worth of $ENA through Wintermute.
4 hours ago, address 0x2a5…590CF transferred 21.85 million ENA into Wintermute's deposit address through multiple hops.
As ENA just started to rise, the chips are already moving to the market maker's address. Whether this is selling or just portfolio reshuffling is a bit hard to guess 😁🚀 Earnings report explodes! Nvidia's revenue doubles, and AI revenue on the software side finally starts to "cash in"! Nvidia's Q2 revenue doubled year-over-year (+106% to $96.2 billion), with data center revenue soaring to $89 billion (+117%), completely smashing market expectations! Even more explosive: the company rarely provides a clear guidance of about 70% revenue growth for FY2028 — and this is a "conservative figure after supply constraints," with actual demand potentially doubling! The only bottleneck is production capacity. But what’s truly exciting is that AI returns are starting to extend from compute hardware officially to the software side: • Salesforce AI-related product ARR is approaching $4 billion (Agentforce + Data 360 nearly $390 million, up over 210% year-over-year) • CrowdStrike and other AI security software's new recurring revenue continues to explode. With compute investment pouring in, the software side is finally bearing fruit! This is not just a simple "beat expectations," but the AI commercialization loop is forming: Hardware racing → Software landing → Real ARR realization. The next-generation Vera Rubin is in full mass production, with enterprise, sovereign, and industrial clients all flourishing. AI is officially moving from "storytelling" to "monetization." Related stocks are already stirring: xNVDA, xCRWD, xCRM... Do you think this is truly the first year of software monetization, or just another case of overhyped expectations? Share your thoughts in the comments below 👇 #EarningsObserver #NvidiaBeatExpectations #SoftwareRevenueCashingIn #AIClosedLoop #NVDAThis morning, I saw $ONT directly topping the gainers list, surging nearly 30% in one day, currently priced around 0.068.
In simple terms, it's an old coin suddenly spiking. A couple of days ago, the mainnet upgraded to EVM, improving compatibility a bit, then OKX launched contracts for it, leverage traders flooded in, and the spot price took off. The privacy identity narrative also heated up, and funds poured into these low market cap old projects.
But honestly, this kind of rise is all driven by news and leverage; volume has increased, but there's nothing new fundamentally. After the surge, it's easy to retrace, so brothers chasing highs be careful about catching the falling knife. If playing short-term, just ride the sentiment, don't go all in.NVIDIA's earnings report once again exceeded expectations. My core conclusion remains: the demand for AI computing power shows no signs of peaking for now, but the market will increasingly focus on the quality of growth.
Specifically, on the financial side, Q2 revenue was $96.22 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 18%; data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, already accounting for more than 90% of total revenue.
On the product side, there is also no shortage: Blackwell is still shipping at high speed, and the new generation Vera Rubin has already entered the volume ramp-up stage.
At the same time, management even expects FY2028 revenue to grow by about 70%, significantly higher than the previous market expectation of about 44%.
However, the earnings report is not without concerns: the current gross margin is about 75%, with Q3 guidance down to about 74%, and management expects Q4 may further decline to 71%–72%, mainly due to rising costs of memory and other components.
In summary, this earnings report shows: demand remains ridiculously strong, Rubin's succession is very smooth, and there is no obvious short-term inflection point in fundamentals; but $NVDA's next core challenge is gradually shifting from "whether GPUs can be sold" to "whether such massive AI CapEx can ultimately generate enough revenue and cash flow."
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
@OKX星球 $BTC is about to break above 80,000 again.
The bears are confused.
The weekly chart rose 22%, directly reclaiming the previous high.
Three solid reasons:
· ETF: Net inflow exceeded $2.2 billion in a single week, institutions haven't stopped.
· Macro: PCE is flat, Wash's speech is steady, rate hike expectations are cooling down.
· On-chain: Long-term holding addresses continue to increase, selling pressure is slowing.
From a technical perspective, 78,000 has become the new support.
Holding above 80,000, the next target is 85,000.
A pullback is a buying opportunity.
Smart money is already positioning.
Don't wait until BTC hits 85,000 to ask if you can still chase.Many Crypto Degens still believe: Cryptocurrency will disrupt banks, Wall Street, and traditional power structures. But one thing is becoming increasingly clear: The traditional system has not been replaced by cryptocurrency; it is gradually entering, controlling, and reshaping the crypto market. And the most ironic part is— many people are still cheering for this process. Look at the capital structure of BTC, ETH, and SOL, and you will find that the narrative of the crypto market has undergone a huge change. --- 🟠 $BTC — not "anti-system," but the system is heavily buying Bitcoin. The original story was decentralization, censorship resistance, and personal sovereignty. But today, the largest identifiable pools of capital are increasingly concentrated in: 🏦 ETFs 🏢 Public companies 💼 Large custodial institutions 🏛️ Government wallets BlackRock's IBIT currently holds over 700,000 BTC, with fund assets exceeding $60 billion. Meanwhile, recent U.S. spot BTC ETFs have again seen strong capital inflows, and institutional demand in the market has clearly rebounded. Strategy remains one of the largest enterprise-level BTC holders, with public data showing its holdings approaching 840,000 BTC. In other words: More and more BTC is entering traditional financial structures through ETFs, corporate treasuries, and large custodial systems. This does not mean Bitcoin has failed. But it does mean Today's main theme in the crypto world is BTC repeatedly crashing against the $79K wall, with the entire market holding its breath waiting for tomorrow's Jackson Hole. 1. BTC surges and then pulls back into consolidation, $79K remains unbroken after a probable breakdown - currently around $78,757 (-0.1%), still up 20% since 8/17+ - After peaking at 81,255 on 8/24, it has fluctuated for the third consecutive day in the 77K-$79K range, with each pullback lows moving downward step by step, with upward momentum slowing - ETH is relatively strong (+1.6%); XRP rose 29% for the week but then took profits -2.6% 2. ETFs saw net inflows for 7 consecutive days, total assets of $99.05 billion approaching 100 billion - 8/26 single-day +314 million (BlackRock IBIT alone holds 284 million, accounting for 90%+); August cumulative $2.72 billion hits a new monthly high for the year - ETH ETF has seen positive inflows for 7 consecutive days (single-day +$180 million) - More importantly: **Gold + Bitcoin ETFs attracted a total of 7 billion ∗∗ over 5 days (GLD 3.4 billion + IBIT $1.5 billion), "depreciation trading" makes a comeback 3. PCE exceeded expectations of a rate cut, macro variables regain dominance - July PCE year-on-year rose +3.7%, higher than expected → USD strengthened → risk assets under pressure, which is the direct reason BTC failed to break above $80K - tomorrow ($BTC whale completely liquidated!
In the latest sell-off down to $77,800, a large number of “BTC whales” were completely wiped out.
Now, there is an incredible amount of buy orders placed by whales in the $74,500 - $78,000 range, which could be the next target.
Meanwhile, there are massive sell orders from whales in the $79,000 - $83,000 range above, indicating Bitcoin will continue downward.
$ETH is showing strong momentum again.
ETH has risen about 29% in the past 7 days, reaching the $2460 area, outperforming Bitcoin.
Now, all eyes are on the critical $2500 level.
If it can sustain a break above $2500, this momentum could turn into a stronger trending rally.
Meanwhile, BitMine has increased its holdings by 32,447 ETH, showing institutional demand remains strong. The direction of the crypto market may no longer be determined solely by ETFs, on-chain funds, or industry news. Inflation, the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy expectations are once again becoming core variables in the market. The latest data shows that US July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, core PCE was 3.3%, and inflation remains significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. After the data release, market concerns about further tightening policy in the future have intensified. Meanwhile, market attention has quickly shifted to the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting. 🔥 What truly needs attention is not just the content of the speeches, but how funds will reprice "future liquidity." 🟠 $BTC — $77K–$78K becomes a key defense zone BTC failed to hold steady after breaking through $80K and is currently entering a high-level consolidation phase. I'm more focused on new ranges: 📍 $76.5K–$77.5K: Key short-term support 📍; $79.5K–$80.5K: Main resistance above. As long as BTC can hold mid-to-high support, the current trend still looks more like profit-taking after a rally, rather than a complete trend reversal. Previously, BTC briefly stood above $77K and remained strong before the Jackson Hole, with the market waiting for new policy signals from the Federal Reserve. If macro sentiment improves, challenging $80K again is not impossible. But if Jackson HIn the early morning, the three major U.S. stock indexes dipped slightly as the market awaited two events: inflation data and Nvidia's earnings report.
The good news came first.
After hours, Nvidia delivered explosive results: revenue of $96.2 billion, more than doubling, with its stock price surging over 4% after hours, simultaneously boosting the storage and optical communication sectors—names like Seagate, Micron, and Coherent all turned green.
But even more noteworthy is Apple, which officially announced a September 10 event, unveiling its first foldable iPhone, with media calling it "the biggest design change in iPhone's 20-year history."
Putting these two events together presents an interesting logic.
Over the past two years, the AI narrative has been "selling shovels"—Nvidia has made a fortune, and storage and optical communication sectors have benefited, but now Barclays raises a real issue: AI data centers are expanding wildly, electricity costs are rising, water supply is tight, voters are starting to push back, midterm elections are approaching, and policy risks are accumulating.
In other words, the "infrastructure dividend" of AI may be peaking, or at least volatility will increase.
Apple's foldable screen represents another path—a transformation in application form, not just stronger computing power, but a change in interaction. No matter how fast the chip is, users can't feel it; but a foldable screen, held in the hand, is immediately recognizable as different.
Therefore, the focus may shift from "who is building AI" to "who is using AI to create new things." The computing power arms race won't stop, but the market will always prefer tangible, visible innovation.
September is going to be lively; the early morning good news may just be the prelude.
$NVDA Woke up to everyone thanking Nvidia, the Q2 earnings report is out, everyone stands up:
Revenue: 96.22 billion (expected 92.17 billion), +106% year-over-year
Adjusted EPS: $2.22 (expected $2.09), +120% year-over-year
Data Center: 89 billion (expected 85.86 billion), +117% year-over-year
Hyperscaler: 48.71 billion (expected 43.55 billion)
The most outrageous is the net profit margin, 62%. Nvidia keeps 62 cents net profit for every 1 dollar sold, even drug dealers are speechless...
This is a comprehensive earnings report that beats expectations across the board, you can't find any flaws, yet the stock price still fell 3% after the news.
Then the turning point.
Next year's revenue guidance, CFO Colette Kress clearly gave a year-over-year growth of +70%. The market generally expects only about 40%, she raised it significantly.
Jensen Huang added fuel to the fire, saying actual demand growth has already exceeded 70%, even close to 100%. The 70% guidance is based on current supply capacity.
He also concluded: AI development has reached an inflection point, no longer experimental technology, but productivity and revenue-generating. Now, computing power is money.
Computing power is money.
Computing power is money.
Computing power is money.
...
The 3% drop was rescued by their better-than-expected outlook, the stock price is now up 4%... an unprecedented first.
The problem going forward is simple, the market will focus closely on this better-than-expected outlook and ignore everything else.
$BTC This year, the 2400 level is firmly held without breaking down, not because the support is unbreakably strong, but because the whales simply don’t give the market a chance to break it: the proportion of liquidity staking locked up has surged to 42%, spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, and the floating circulating chips in the market are one-third less than last year.106.88 more $OKB, 20x. Entry logic is clear: 4-hour demand zone + volume confirmation. But the focus of this review is not on the entry, but on the "time dimension".
After holding for 6 hours, the price only reached 109, with a floating profit of about 60%, far below expectations. According to system rules, if there is no acceleration 4-6 hours after entry, it should be considered a "weak confirmation," and one should actively reduce the position instead of holding stubbornly. I did not follow this rule this time and waited 2 more hours before catching the subsequent surge.
Lesson: time stop-loss and price stop-loss are equally important. Next time when encountering a "correct entry but slow movement" situation, reduce half the position first to relieve psychological pressure, then gamble with the rest. The final doubling of floating profit in this trade involved some luck; luck should not be mistaken for skill. Current price is 112.47, and according to the rules, the position should have been reduced already. Subsequent trailing take profit is set at 115. $BTC $ETH Recent International Gold Price Trend Analysis (As of 2026-08-27)
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
In August, international gold experienced a strong rebound. London spot gold quickly rose from around $4100 to above $4600/oz, with a monthly increase of over 13%, a rare large monthly gain in recent years. Currently, it is fluctuating near the high level of $4630.
Key Drivers of the Rise
1. Changes in Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Weaker US employment and consumption data have significantly lowered the market's probability of further rate hikes, with speculation beginning on rate cuts in Q4. US Treasury real yields have fallen, reducing the cost of holding gold and benefiting gold prices. However, the latest PCE inflation data remains resilient, and there is still significant market disagreement on whether there will be a rate hike in September, causing volatility.
2. Concerns over the US Dollar and Treasury Fiscal Issues: The US is expanding long-term Treasury repurchases, raising market concerns about huge fiscal deficits. The US dollar index is under pressure, and funds are using gold to hedge against dollar credit risk.
3. Central Banks' Continued Gold Purchases: Many central banks are continuously increasing gold holdings to diversify foreign exchange reserves, providing medium- to long-term support.
4. Geopolitical Risk Premium: The volatile situation in the Middle East can trigger risk-averse buying at any time, amplifying short-term fluctuations.
Outlook
• Short term: After continuous gains, gold has accumulated substantial profit-taking positions, and high-level volatility will significantly increase. Key events to watch include the Jackson Hole Symposium, US CPI, and non-farm payroll data. If inflation rebounds and Treasury yields rise, gold prices may pull back; if the economy weakens further and rate cut expectations strengthen, gold could challenge the $4700–$5000 range.
• Medium term: Institutional baseline scenarios expect gold to likely maintain a wide range of $4000–$4600 with an upward shift in the center. If the Fed officially starts cutting rates combined with accelerated central bank gold purchases, gold could break above $5000; if inflation rebounds and geopolitical conflicts push oil prices higher, there is a risk of decline.
Risk Warning
Gold is highly volatile and strongly influenced by overseas data, geopolitics, and exchange rates. Avoid chasing highs. Physical gold is suited for long-term allocation; futures and leveraged gold carry high risks.
If you need, I can help compress this into a brief 200-word version. Many people are still using "ultrasound money" to explain this wave of $ETH, but I think the explanation is reversed.
Currently, the mainnet Gas is only 0.1 Gwei, the burn is very weak, and ETH is not really rising due to deflation.
On the other hand, 34% of ETH has already gone into staking, and BlackRock's ETHB with staking has reached a scale of $830 million.
Old buyers focus on the burn, new buyers focus on yield and circulating supply.
ETHB's current staking yield is only 1.84%, which by itself cannot support the market. What’s really interesting is that traditional capital finally has an entry point to hold ETH long-term and receive monthly distributions.
So I prefer to understand this wave as ETH changing buyers, not just a typical altcoin catch-up rally.
Keep holding long positions.
Having touched 2660, this batch of new buyers will make the next pullback shallower. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 PENGU Observation on August 27｜A Brand Can Go Far, but the Token May Not Benefit in Sync
PENGU is back in the market spotlight today. What truly deserves a closer look is not how lively the penguin image is, but the fact that brand expansion does not automatically translate into token value. The official Pudgy Penguins July review shows that plush toys have entered Target stores in the U.S., the first comic debuted at the San Diego Comic-Con, and the team is conducting regular live shopping streams on TikTok and Whatnot; these actions expand IP reach, retail channels, and story content. On the other hand, the official claim terms clearly state that PENGU is for entertainment purposes, with no promise of commercial value, and the related company holds a significant amount of tokens. In other words, toy sales, content exposure, and community enthusiasm can validate brand management but cannot alone prove that the token has cash flow, dividends, or redemption rights. Going forward, retail repurchase, game activity, community participation, and token supply changes should be observed separately, with particular attention to whether brand revenue has a clear, verifiable value return mechanism. A rise in popularity does not mean risks disappear; liquidity, concentration of holdings, and sentiment volatility remain boundaries. $PENGU #PENGU
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 NVIDIA delivers another explosive earnings report, but the AI market has truly entered the "return verification period"
If you only look at the numbers, this NVIDIA earnings report is almost flawless.
The latest quarter's revenue reached $96.2 billion, a 106% year-over-year increase; data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, with a gross margin still maintained at 75%. The next quarter's revenue guidance even reaches $108 billion. (NVIDIA Newsroom)
This indicates that at least at the infrastructure level, the AI investment cycle is far from over.
Even more astonishing, NVIDIA expects next fiscal year's revenue to still grow by about 70%. (Reuters)
But I believe the truly important aspect of this earnings report is no longer "whether NVIDIA can sell more GPUs."
The answer is obviously: yes.
The market is now starting to ask the second-level question:
Will the buyers of these GPUs ultimately make enough money?
The logic of AI trading over the past two years has been very simple:
Insufficient computing power → Cloud providers expand CapEx → NVIDIA sells GPUs → Data center revenue explodes → The market continues to give the entire AI industry chain higher valuations.
But as capital expenditure scales up, this logic chain must start to close the loop.
NVIDIA management expects that by 2026, the top five global hyperscale cloud providers' capital expenditures may approach $800 billion, and by 2027 may even reach $1.3 trillion. (MarketBeat)
At this scale, Wall Street will no longer only ask "how much is invested," but will start asking:
How much new revenue, profit, and cash flow have these investments actually created?
This is why I believe AI investment has entered a new phase.
Previously, the market was validating computing power demand;
Now it is starting to validate computing power returns.
If in the coming quarters Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google, and AI application companies can prove that AI investments truly bring productivity improvements and profit expansion, then the currently enormous CapEx may instead become the foundation for the next growth cycle.
But if capital expenditures continue to expand exponentially while AI commercial revenue lags behind, the market will sooner or later recalculate the valuation of the entire industry chain.
So the biggest insight from this earnings report for me is not "how much more NVIDIA can rise."
But rather:
NVIDIA has proven that AI infrastructure demand remains strong, and now it is up to the entire AI industry to prove—whether this computing power is really worth so much money.
The AI bull market is not over.
But from now on, the market may no longer only reward companies that "tell AI stories," but will increasingly reward those that can truly convert AI into revenue, profit, and free cash flow.
The truly scarce resource in the next phase is not GPUs, but the return on AI investment. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
The latest US data is out, and the market reaction is a bit subtle.
Core PCE in July rose 3.3% year-over-year, exactly the same as the previous value and expectations, with a month-over-month increase of 0.2%. The Q2 real GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 1.5%, unchanged. Core inflation did not surge further, but it is still quite far from the Fed's 2% target; economic growth has slowed but not to the extent of "an immediate pivot being necessary."
After the data release, market expectations for a September rate hike slightly increased. The focus now is no longer on "whether the data exceeded expectations," but on "whether this level of stickiness is enough for the Fed to continue tightening."
The real highlight is Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole this Friday. How he prioritizes inflation, employment, and growth, as well as his criteria for whether to raise rates or hold steady, will basically determine market sentiment in the coming days. If the speech remains ambiguous, the policy divergence for September will likely continue dragging on, causing fluctuations in the dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and $BTC.
In short, the current macro environment is "neither hot nor cold, direction unclear." Inflation is not falling fast enough, growth hasn't collapsed severely, leaving the Fed in a dilemma. Crypto is even more sensitive; with limited funds, any policy ripple easily amplifies volatility. ETH's rebound in this round is stronger than BTC's, but $2500 is becoming the real dividing line between bulls and bears
Compared to BTC, which is still fluctuating around $79,000, ETH's performance today is clearly stronger.
From the chart, ETH quickly rose from a low around $2431, reaching a high of $2514, and is currently holding near $2495, with a 24-hour increase close to 2%.
I think there is a very important change in this market:
ETH is starting to show relatively stronger capital support compared to BTC.
Technically, on the 15-minute level, it has retaken MA5, MA10, and MA20, with short- and mid-term moving averages beginning to converge upwards. After forming a low at $2413, ETH is no longer just moving sideways but gradually raising its lows.
But the real test is right ahead—between $2500 and $2515.
This range has seen continuous selling pressure and is close to the upper Bollinger Band. After just hitting $2514, it quickly pulled back, indicating that there is still selling above $2500.
So I won’t conclude that ETH has completed a breakout just because it rose 2% today.
I’m more focused on two conditions:
First, can the $2480–$2490 support hold on a pullback;
Second, can the next attack on $2515 break out with volume.
If both conditions are met, this rally could upgrade from an "oversold rebound" to a trend continuation, and we can watch for $2530 or even higher levels.
Conversely, if $2500 cannot hold and $2480 breaks, then today’s rally is likely just another bounce within the range.
But there is a fundamental signal worth noting.
US ETH spot ETFs have seen clear capital inflows recently: about $184 million net inflow on August 21, around $116 million on the 24th, and about $180 million again on the 25th. (farside.co.uk)
This means ETH’s recent strength is not solely driven by the futures market; there is indeed continuous spot capital support behind it.
The problem is that the macro environment has not fully cooperated yet.
The latest US PCE year-over-year reached 3.7%, higher than market expectations; the probability of a rate hike in September has risen back to about 40%, and the dollar has climbed to an 8-day high. (reuters.com) Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday may further change the market’s expectations for the interest rate path. (dailycoin.com)
So now ETH is in a very interesting situation:
Internal capital structure is strengthening, but external macro pressure still exists.
That’s why I think $2500 is very critical.
If ETH can truly hold $2500–$2515 under such a macro environment, it means the market is telling us through price that the risk appetite for ETH may have changed.
Instead of guessing how high ETH can go, it’s better to see if the market can prove this first.
$2500 is not a target but a test.
If it holds, the nature of the market may change; if it doesn’t, this remains just a rebound.
Do you think this time ETH can really turn $2500 into support? $ETH BTC rebounded to 79,000, but here I actually don't want to rush to chase
BTC quickly pulled back from around 77,554 and has now returned to 78,790 USD. Looking only at the 15-minute level, the price has already climbed back above MA5, MA10, and MA20, and the short-term structure is clearly more repaired than yesterday.
But what I think is most worth noting here is not the "1% rise," but that this rebound is entering a relatively critical verification zone.
From the chart, BTC first faces short-term selling pressure near 79,000 above, with greater structural resistance still around 80,000–80,400. Previously, BTC broke above 80,000 but failed to hold, indicating that there are still obvious trapped positions and profit-taking at this level.
In other words:
Support around 77,500 only proves there are buyers below; it does not mean 80,000 has become support again.
Moreover, the macro environment is not fully supportive of risk assets right now.
The latest US PCE data shows that overall PCE year-over-year rose to 3.7% in July, indicating inflation stickiness remains. The market has raised bets on further Fed rate hikes, and the US dollar index has risen to an 8-day high. (Reuters)
This creates an interesting contradiction for BTC:
On one side, macro liquidity expectations are tightening again;
On the other, spot funds are still continuously flowing in.
In recent days, US spot BTC ETF funds have clearly warmed up, with net inflows of about $338 million on August 24 and about $314 million on the 25th; even on the 26th, when funds cooled down significantly, there was no large-scale net outflow. (Farside Investors) Previously, BTC and ETH spot ETFs recorded the strongest weekly inflows since last October. (The Block)
So I am now more inclined to interpret this market as:
Short-term macro pressure is battling against mid-term spot buying.
Next, I will focus on two levels.
If BTC can break through 79,200–79,500 again with volume support, then 80,000 will be tested once more; only by truly holding above 80,400 can this rebound from 77,500 have a chance to evolve into a trend continuation.
But if it rallies near 79,000 and then falls back again, the first support to watch below is 78,300. If this level breaks, the low at 77,500 will very likely be tested again.
Therefore, I don't think this is a particularly comfortable position to chase longs.
77,500 is the bulls' defensive line, 80,000 is the bears' defensive line, and BTC is currently stuck right in the middle.
The truly valuable signal is not whether the price is at 78,000 or 79,000, but who breaks through the other's defense line first.
What do you think? Will the next test of 80,000 break through directly, or will it shake out again? $BTC I believe the expectation of a rate cut in September has decreased, which actually represents the last "golden dip" before the big surge of BTC and ETH. Don't be scared by the 3.3% PCE data; my bullish core logic on Crypto is that the real pain point for the Fed is when GDP growth slows to 1.5%. The article mentions "economic slowdown is not yet a sufficient condition for a policy shift," but this should be interpreted inversely. In other words: although inflation is still sticky, the economy is barely holding up, and the Fed dares not tighten further to crash the economy. Recall last month's nonfarm payroll data surprise, BTC immediately spiked $, showing the market's high sensitivity to "bad news is good news." So my current judgment is: if Wash's speech on Friday is hawkish, it will be the last shakeout by the main force. Once he hints "a bit of inflation is tolerable to preserve employment," or signals easing on rate hikes, liquidity expectations will instantly reverse. Especially Ethereum, as a high-beta asset, tends to rebound more strongly than BTC under liquidity easing expectations. My specific strategy is: do not chase highs now; place orders at support levels to catch the dip. For example, if BTC dips to a key support level (like near previous lows) after the speech, I will decisively build positions in batches. Even if there are short-term fluctuations, as long as the overall direction of rate cuts remains unchanged, every pullback now is a chance to buy on the dip. After all, the cost of shorting US dollar credit at this level is far greater than enduring short-term volatility. The global stock market decline, along with rising gold and virtual assets, is the best proof! #USCorePCEFlatMonthOnMonth #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Core PCE remained flat from last month; how will Waller's Jackson Hole speech set the tone?
Core PCE hasn't come down; the real question has shifted from "when will rates be cut" to "will rates be raised again?"
After the US July PCE data was released, I think the market needs to reassess a previously overly optimistic logic: inflation has not smoothly returned to 2%, but is proving to be stickier than expected.
July core PCE year-over-year stayed at 3.3%, month-over-month rose 0.2%; more notably, overall PCE year-over-year reached 3.7%, slightly above market expectations. (FXStreet)
The most troublesome aspect of this data is not "inflation suddenly out of control," but that it leaves the Federal Reserve without a reason to pivot dovish.
Previously, the market was waiting for inflation to continue falling, then gradually shift policy focus toward the economy and employment. But now, US Q2 GDP still maintains 1.5% annualized growth, personal income grew 0.4% in July, and the economy is not weak enough to force the Fed to ease immediately. (Reuters)
So the realistic choice facing Waller now is:
The economy can still hold up, but inflation remains above 3%, so why rush to cut rates?
The market has actually started repricing. After the PCE release, the policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield briefly rose to about 4.21%, and the dollar climbed to an eight-day high; the probability of a September rate hike has been repriced back up to about 40%. (Reuters)
Therefore, I believe what really matters next is not this PCE itself, but how Waller defines this data at Jackson Hole.
If he emphasizes "inflation is still too high and restrictive policy must be maintained," the market may further price in higher rates, putting pressure on high-valuation US equities, gold, and BTC due to liquidity repricing.
But if he believes current inflation is more due to energy and supply-side shocks and opts to continue observing, market concerns about a September hike may quickly cool down.
Macro trading now is no longer simply "rate cut or no rate cut."
The real watershed is: does the Fed believe core inflation above 3% is just a temporary pause, or the start of a new round of sticky inflation?
Waller's Jackson Hole speech this time is likely the key to the market's next directional choice.
What do you think is more likely next: to continue holding steady, or will the market ultimately have to accept "rate hikes" again?