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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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美、伊、俄罗斯动作频繁,积极推动局势利好! 1,伊朗首次披露临时航线的具体结构,新的临时通道7英里宽,其中进入波斯湾方向是途径伊朗海域,驶出部分航线同样途径伊朗海域,新航线基本是被伊朗占据主要掌控权。 2,美国开始恢复中东外交人员的派遣,中东各国的外交大使以及其家人均可返回中东,算是在军事上降级 3,俄罗斯消息人士称美伊就停火协议已经达成共识,单看此条消息可信度不高,但是结合另一则消息,据媒体报道,美国CIA局长昨日秘密前往俄罗斯访问,期间乌克兰暂时停止对俄罗斯袭击。 两个消息结合起来看,那么俄罗斯方面的消息可信度大大提高,接下啦就要看美伊的具体动态如何。 阶段总结: 能源市场已经对目前的积极动态加速定价了,国际原油与美油进一步跌至关键节点,后续看美伊双方是否有官方公告来证实俄罗斯方面的言论 值得一提的是,根据数据网站来看,虽然局势好转,但是霍尔木兹海峡昨日的通航数据依旧不够理想,而伊朗与阿曼的临时海峡,基本也属于伊朗占据主要控制权,这可能会增加美国认可的难度,同时也可能会让双方对海峡继续存在矛盾。#美扩大对伊制裁,海峡复航谈判推进
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Omani Foreign Minister's visit to Iran yields preliminary results, Iran and Oman jointly declare — plan to establish a temporary maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz
Oman's Foreign Minister's Visit to Iran Yields Preliminary Results; Iran-Oman Joint Statement — Plans to Establish a Temporary Maritime Passage in the Strait of Hormuz. There are several key points to note in this news. The "proposed establishment" and "temporary" passages do not mean the strait is fully open at this stage, but rather downgrade treatment under the conditions of the Strait of Hormuz for crude oil being open. #美启动对伊经济孤立, why have oil prices fallen? Simply put, Iran and Oman first establish a passage to try navigation, and be aware of the mines. During this process, it depends on the U.S. attitude. If the U.S. seeks peace and the route operates normally, the new route will gradually mature and become the main future route for the final Iran-Oman Strait agreement. All prerequisites are the U.S. facing the route and Iran's stance. If the U.S. continues economic sanctions and military pressure on Iran, Iran can continue to cancel the route, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. Additionally, It is basically foreseeable that before the U.S.-Iran fully reaches an agreement, cargo ships from Israel and Iran considered hostile countries will likely not be allowed to operate. Iran will definitely target this. In contrast, large oil tankers from Iraq and Qatar are likely to be the first to operate and complete loading operations. Iran's purpose is to ease the international diplomatic and political pressure caused by the long-term closed strait, and on the other hand, to pass the negotiation easing ball to the U.S. If the U.S. does not respond and continues hostility with Iran, international pressure will once again shift toward the U.S. Overall, Iran has repeatedly sent optimistic signals. Next, let's see how the U.S. and Trump responds to him

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