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Iran Sanctions, Talks & Crypto
Iran–Oman talks are reviving hopes of a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, sending oil lower and easing immediate inflation fears. At the same time, Washington has expanded sanctions targeting Iran-linked networks, keeping geopolitical risk elevated
$BTC is holding near $79K, while $ETH remains around $2.5K. If diplomacy advances,falling oil and softer risk premiums could support crypto. But renewed escalation or tighter sanctions could quickly reverse sentimentHYPE at $83, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: from $50 soaring all the way to $83, retail investors FOMO shouting "100 is not a dream."
In the past month, it surged over 60%, and after Trump named it, it pulsed 11%-25% in a single day. There is no historical trapped position in the price discovery zone, and the candlestick chart looks textbook perfect. Weekly/daily bullish alignment, MA5/10/20/50/100/200 all below the price, the trend is intact, but the short-term position is extremely poor.
First thing: Trump named it, opening the CFTC compliance gateway.
Around August 19, Trump publicly stated that the CFTC is introducing Hyperliquid into the US in a "fully compliant, legal" manner. Once the news broke, HYPE jumped from 50-60 directly to 80+, with a single-day pulse of 11%-25%.
Hyperliquid is transforming from a "crypto wild card" into a "US compliant perpetual gateway." The market is not buying a license that has already landed but an option for "US institutional funds about to flood in."
Trump’s shout can push it up 30%, but you can’t expect him to shout every day.
Second thing: AQAv2 buyback has started, but the unlocking bomb is also coming.
Starting August 26, AQAv2 officially began accruing interest and directing towards buyback and burn, expected to convert a large portion of USDC reserves’ earnings into HYPE buybacks. Plus, the protocol itself has daily transactions worth billions, fee income crushing top-tier public chains, and 99% of fees going back to buyback and burn—triple buying pressure channels stacked, the fundamentals are indeed strong.
But on August 29, 14.18 million HYPE will unlock, about $1.2 billion in volume.
Historical post-unlock performance: -7%, +1%, -14%, mixed ups and downs but never "ignoring unlock and surging."
Third thing: Today there’s PCE + GDP, Friday Jackson Hole.
Today (August 26) US July PCE (Fed’s most watched inflation indicator) + Q2 GDP revision, Friday new Fed Chair Warsh’s first keynote speech. The macro backdrop is: BTC just rebounded from weekly and gave back profits at 78K-81K, USD, US bonds, tariffs all making noise.
HYPE outperformed the market this week, but its Beta is not low. Cooler PCE + dovish Warsh → surge to 84-87; hotter PCE + hawkish Warsh → first drop to 80, deep to 77-78.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Trump named CFTC compliance entry to US, institutional channel expected to open
AQAv2 buyback started + protocol fee buyback, triple buying pressure
Weekly/daily bullish alignment, trend intact
No historical trapped positions above after breaking previous high 75-77
On the other side:
83 is already the historical high, short-term overbought + crowded chase
$1.2 billion unlocking bomb on August 29, countdown 3 days
Today PCE + GDP, Friday Jackson Hole, huge macro uncertainty
Funding rate not extreme but OI not low, dual sell-off near 83 is normal
Resistance above: 83.5-84 (breakout confirmation) → 85-87.5 → 90 → 97-100
Support below: 81-82 (ultra-short defense) → 78.5-80 (first pullback zone) → 75-77 (last trend long defense) → 73
Trading strategy
Conservative players (recommended):
Wait for pullback to 78.8-80.2 to stabilize (4H volume stop drop), light position long test
Daily close above 83.8 chase breakout, stop loss 81.5
Targets in batches: 85.5/87.5/90. Cut position below 77, exit below 75.
Short-term players:
Only do high sell low buy small swings at 83, range 80-83.8. Reduce position and take profit at 83.3-83.8, buy again at 79.8-80.5.
How to handle existing positions:
Cost below 70: reduce 30%-50% near 83, take back principal
Cost 78-81: prioritize break-even, move stop loss to 77.5-78
Cost 82.5+: either strict stop loss at 80.8 or reduce to minimal position and wait for unlock to reassess
Short positions not recommended to blindly short; if shorting, only as overbought correction: light short if rebound fails at 83.5-84, targets 81/79.5, stop loss 84.3.
Next 72 hours trading script
Cooler PCE + BTC holds above 79K: HYPE first surges to 84-86, may still pull back before unlock
Hotter PCE / hawkish Warsh: first drop to 80, deep to 77-78—that’s a better mid-term buy point, not a liquidation point
Flat data + unlock panic brewing: sweep back and forth 80-83, whoever chases gets hit
I remain bullish on HYPE mid-term—the protocol income and regulatory options are still there.
But 83+ unlock + PCE/Jackson Hole stacked together is a typical "good asset, bad position."
It’s not that HYPE is bad, it’s that you always chase at the highest point and cut at the lowest.
What is your HYPE cost?
At 83, do you dare to chase?
$BTC $ETH $HYPE NVIDIA Earnings Report: Cheap, but Not Necessarily Going Up
After the market closes tonight, NVIDIA will release its Q2 results for fiscal year 2027. Revenue is expected to be about $92 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share around $2.09.
In the past eight quarters, NVIDIA has beaten expectations every time, but the stock price fell after six of those earnings reports. In the last four quarters, it has without exception closed lower.
Beating expectations is just the baseline; the market has long moved beyond focusing solely on the numbers.
Valuation isn’t expensive, but that itself is a signal
NVIDIA’s current forward P/E ratio is about 24x, only slightly higher than the S&P 500’s 21x. The forward P/E once dropped to around 18x, which is historically rare for a company whose revenue is still doubling.
Among 82 Wall Street analysts, 78 have buy ratings, with an average target price implying about 50% upside. Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Bank of America have all recently reiterated buy ratings.
But the problem is: since August, the stock price has already rebounded over 12%, so the positive news may have been priced in. Goldman Sachs also clearly stated that excellent earnings alone are not enough to drive the stock price higher; additional catalysts are needed.
Cheap doesn’t mean it will rise; the past four quarters’ performance has already proven this.
What the market is really waiting for are Jensen Huang’s answers to four questions
1. Customer concentration: Five or six ultra-large customers contribute nearly half of revenue. In Q1, ultra-large sales were 37.9 billion, while other enterprise customers (ACIE) were 37.5 billion, but ACIE grew 31% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding the ultra-large customers’ 12%. The market wants to hear evidence that AI demand is spreading to a broader range of industries.
2. $500 billion financing plan: NVIDIA has partnered with six major financial institutions to leverage third-party capital to provide financing for customers to purchase GPUs. Details are limited, and the market worries whether this truly expands real demand or is "circular financing" to maintain growth. The earnings call must provide a clear explanation.
3. Rubin supply bottleneck: The next-generation Rubin is seen as the next growth engine, but HBM memory shortages may limit deployment scale. Demand is not the problem; supply is.
4. Competitive landscape: AMD launched the MI450X, and ultra-large customers are also expanding self-developed chip deployments. Whether NVIDIA can hold its market share is a core variable for long-term valuation.
Any one of these four points falling short of expectations could trigger a 5% to 7% downward move — which is exactly what the options market is currently pricing in.
Short-term vs. long-term distinction
In the short term, post-earnings movement heavily depends on the confidence conveyed during the earnings call. Historical patterns suggest the post-earnings period may be a better buying opportunity than before earnings.
In the long term, AI infrastructure construction is still in its early stages, and NVIDIA’s narrative remains intact. The current valuation already incorporates a considerable degree of cautious expectations. If Jensen Huang can clearly address the four questions above, any short-term fluctuations may just be noise.
The core message is this: If you believe AI is only halfway through its journey, valuation is secondary; if you only want to play short-term numbers, history tells you it might be more prudent to wait until after the earnings report.
Tonight, the numbers are just the appetizer; the earnings call is the main course.
$NVDA #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 #Strategy increasing issuance to expand cash, BTC allocation rhythm under attention #BTC breaks through 80000 USD, can it hold the new threshold? Good evening everyone! Have you eaten?
$BTC BTC
Limited real utility, transfer and store of value are the only practical functions, no support for any application operation. Most of its price comes from psychological premium: global participants collectively believe it is a digitally scarce asset.
This premium comes from a simple narrative: fixed total supply, tamper-proof. Ordinary investors and institutions don’t need to understand complex technology, just accept the concept of “digital gold” to participate. The weakness of the premium is that it is not directly verified by real-world productive activities, no business can prove how much it should be worth. As long as the social collective belief remains unchanged, the premium will be maintained; once belief weakens, the premium shrinks rapidly. It doesn’t make money through functionality, it makes money through collective faith.
$ETH ETH
Has both real utility and psychological premium. Real utility is carrying all on-chain economic activities like DeFi, NFT, RWA, with many contracts running genuinely, producing real transactions daily, visible utility. Psychological premium comes from the imagination of a future “global decentralized infrastructure.”
The contradiction is that utility and token revenue are decoupled. Many transactions move to L2, ecological utility keeps expanding, but value captured by the mainnet is diverted, tokens cannot fully benefit from ecological growth. The market pays for current on-chain business and also for the grand long-term story. Once the long-term story is disproved, psychological premium will fade, but underlying real utility remains, so it won’t lose all value. Therefore, when ETH falls, it loses the fantasy part but still has real business as a bottom support.
$SOL SOL
Real utility focuses on high-frequency, low-cost transactions, with excellent on-chain interaction experience, but currently most utility serves Meme and short-term speculation. Its psychological premium comes from the imagination of a “new generation high-performance public chain.”
A large part of real utility is pseudo-demand created by speculation; as long as hype exists, transaction volume is high; when hype disappears, on-chain activity cools rapidly. Its premium heavily depends on the market’s imagination of a “new public chain disruptor.” Once the new narrative fades and no solid essential business remains, psychological premium will clear quickly. Compared to ETH, its real essential demand base is thinner, and price relies more on imagined premium.
The essential differences among the three: BTC is almost entirely consensus premium; ETH is a dual premium of real business plus future narrative; SOL mainly relies on new technology imagination premium, with a weak real essential demand base.
Currently rising, all three contain a large amount of psychological premium. The key to future differentiation: BTC depends on whether consensus can continue; ETH depends on whether ecological value can be transmitted to the token; SOL depends on whether speculative traffic can be converted into long-term real essential demand. If driven only by premium, once sentiment recedes, valuation contraction will follow. Seeing that about 1.33 million UNI have net flowed out from exchanges in the past 7 days, the simplest conclusion is "whales are buying." But if we continue to track the addresses, this conclusion doesn't hold.
In the same monitoring set, over 30 days there is a net inflow of about 1.81 million UNI, which is the opposite direction of the 7-day flow. Among the 7-day outflow, about 460,000 UNI follow a path of "external address receiving funds, then approximately equal amounts consolidated back to known exchanges within 24 hours," which looks more like pending recharge transfers and should not be double-counted as buying.
Looking at the large outflows over 90 days: 7 receiving addresses have collectively received about 48.53 million UNI, but the verified entity resolution rate is 0%. Two high-frequency Binance receiving addresses accounted for about 86% of the outflow, then dispersed most of the funds to over 1,200 downstream addresses each. They may be untagged internal wallets, consolidation, routing, or market-making infrastructure; currently, there is no evidence proving they are independent whales.
Another OKX receiving address has been observed to directly return about 3.03 million UNI back to known exchanges. This also shows that "withdrawal from exchanges" is only the starting point of the path, not a conclusion about holding positions. 🚨💥 "Jackson" Bomb: Treasury Dominance and the Financial Repression Game!
Sharp anticipation for "Wash" speech amid expected covert coordination with "Bicent"! Treasury's move to buy long-term debt to reduce financing costs, alongside the Fed backing off strict tightening, officially means falling into the trap of Financial Repression! 📈📉
📌 The Plan
Interest Siege: Inability to bear 5%–6% interest drives manipulation of bond yields and control over real interest rates.
Inflation Scenario: Allowing inflation to rise to erode massive government debts at the expense of purchasing power!$BTC & $ETH :IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN?
In 2022, $BTC fell sharply in June, rallied through summer, then made a final move toward $16K before the cycle bottomed. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC has surged back above $80K, while $ETH has recovered toward $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2B in weekly inflows, while ETF activity has also strengthened around Ethereum.
Is this a genuine cycle bottom—or another powerful relief rally? $BTC & $ETH :IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN?
In 2022, $BTC fell sharply in June, rallied through summer, then made a final move toward $16K before the cycle bottomed. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC has surged back above $80K, while $ETH has recovered toward $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2B in weekly inflows, while ETF activity has also strengthened around Ethereum.
Is this a genuine cycle bottom—or another powerful relief rally? 📰 【CZ: If Hyperliquid enters the US, it could open market space for more decentralized products and become a major positive for the entire crypto industry】
According to BlockBeats, on August 26, at the 2026 Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, CZ stated that Trump mentioned Hyperliquid and said that Mike Selig, Chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will look for ways to allow the platform to enter the US market. CZ believes that if this progress is realized, it will be a major positive for the entire crypto industry. CZ noted that because he holds Binance shares, people tend to see him as a supporter of centralized exchanges, but his fundamental reason for entering the crypto industry is his belief in decentralization. He pointed out that some users choose Hyperliquid because the platform does not require traditional accounts or KYC.
CZ talking about Hyperliquid is quite interesting this time. Previously, he was always seen as a spokesperson for CEX, but now he openly supports DEX, completely reversing the narrative. The key point is that both Trump and the CFTC have named it, which shows that decentralized derivatives are not just hype within the circle but have entered the policy arena.
For us, the most direct expectation is that once the compliance window opens, more similar products may follow, expanding the imagination space for ecosystem interaction and airdrop expectations. But a reminder: after the topic heats up, the emotional premium often exceeds the actual landing speed, so before chasing the hype, first clarify whether you are betting on the narrative or the fundamentals.
Who do you think will benefit the most if Hyperliquid really enters the US? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $LINK Breaking news yesterday: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen officially announced the launch of the "Economic Abandonment Operation" against Iran, with sanctions covering five major sectors: digital assets, gold, shipping, aviation, and technology. A total of 60 Iranian entities have been added to the sanctions list.
Yellen used very strong language, calling it an "Economic D-Day," aiming to completely cut off Iran's economic lifeline. Any institution assisting Iran's fund flows will be removed from the dollar system.
However, the market's initial reaction was subtle: oil prices fell 2.3% that day, with Brent at $92 and WTI at $85, ending a six-day rally. The market interpreted this more as verbal deterrence without actual impactful implementation.
Iran's local currency, the rial, has already dropped to a historic low, at 2,020,000 rials per 1 USD; meanwhile, Iran controls 3%-7% of global BTC hash power, and its leading exchange Nobitex was sanctioned by the U.S. as early as June.
Today's new development — a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement has been reached, ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices continue to decline, with U.S. crude falling below $80, and BTC simultaneously retreating below 79,000.
In just one week, expectations have completely reversed:
One week ago, the market was betting on "sanctions escalation and risk hedging," with BTC at 64,000 and ETH at 1,800;
Now, with sanctions materializing and the situation easing, BTC has fallen back to 78,000, and ETH has risen to 2,420.
This is a typical case where good news turns into bad news upon realization. Current market expectations have become blurred, and capital games are complex, making it impossible to judge market trends simply by good or bad news.
$BTC $ETH $CL
#US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level
Trader DogZong BTC surged to 81,000 and then pulled back: This is not the end of the trend, but the first real test of chip pressure
This round of BTC's rise was very fast, but I actually think the real point to watch is not whether it can immediately continue to hit new highs, but whether it can hold the breakthrough gains after the surge.
From the 15-minute chart, BTC peaked at $81,266 and then quickly pulled back, currently hovering around $78,500. The short-term cycle has already shown a clear cooling down:
The BOLL middle band is about 78,720, the upper band 79,138, and the price has fallen back below the middle band; MA5, MA10, and MA20 are converging again, indicating that the previous one-sided rally momentum is fading. The first support to watch below is $78,300–78,000, and further down is the previous low near $77,700.
But there is a very important distinction here:
This pullback cannot simply be understood as a "failed $80,000 breakout" for now.
Because the capital structure behind this round of rise is more solid than just a pure short squeeze.
In the past week, the US spot BTC ETF saw nearly $2 billion in capital inflows again, and on August 24 alone, there was about $338 million in net inflows. This means the initial rise was indeed driven by short covering and liquidations, but real spot capital has started to take over afterward. (CoinDesk)
At the same time, this BTC breakthrough of $80,000 also has a macro logic that was not obvious in recent months — the "dollar depreciation trade" is being repriced by the market.
US long-term Treasury repos, suppressed long-end yields, and a weakening dollar have attracted capital attention to both gold and BTC. In this environment, BTC is once again seen by some funds as a high-beta asset to hedge against fiat purchasing power decline. (Reuters)
So I won’t immediately turn bearish just because it fell back from 81,000 to 78,500.
What really needs to be observed are two levels:
First, whether around 78,000 can hold.
If there is repeated support here, or even higher lows form, then this pullback looks more like a chip rotation after a rapid rise, and the market still has a chance to retest 79,500–80,000, and then the previous high at 81,200.
Second, if 77,700 is effectively broken down, the nature changes.
Because this means the price has fallen back into the pre-breakout trading range, and then it can no longer be simply explained as a "healthy pullback"; instead, we must be cautious that the previous breakout above $80,000 has turned into a liquidity release.
What I care about more is not whether BTC rises or falls today, but a deeper question:
When a rally is driven simultaneously by short squeezes, ETF capital, and macro liquidity, the first wave up is often the fastest; what really determines how far the trend can go is whether, after the short squeeze ends, there are still buyers willing to continue taking spot positions.
What BTC is experiencing now is exactly this verification phase.
If 78,000 holds, I still see it as a strong consolidation;
If 77,700 breaks, I will significantly downgrade my assessment of this breakout.
$80,000 has been broken once; the next time it stands above it, what matters is not the price itself, but whether the market can truly turn it into support.
Do you think the area around 78,000 this time is washing out the chasing high positions, or is 81,266 already the phase top of this rebound? $BTC BlackRock just lowered the physical subscription threshold for $IBIT.ETF from $25M directly down to $1M. This is not a simple price cut; it can be considered an upgrade to market infrastructure because it lowers the barrier for institutions to participate in ETF physical subscriptions and redemptions, making market making, taxation, and asset settlement more flexible. Of course, lowering the threshold facilitates both capital inflow and outflow, so it can't be simply explained as a positive development. Ultimately, it depends on whether the product structure becomes more institutionalized and whether liquidity deepens. $RE $R is currently priced at $0.535, down 4.4% in 24 hours, but the trading volume has reached $318 million. Let's do the math: with 2.18 million trades spread out, each trade averages only $146, typical retail investors chattering and washing out. Large genuine orders are almost invisible among this pile. The top five on the same list all took hits tonight, with declines ranging from 3% to 7% lined up; this kind of drop is not a single-point explosion but a full market cash-out. $RE's top position is not due to buying strength but turnover density. Above 0.57, volume needs to increase to talk further; breaking below 0.54 directly targets 0.51. $BTC & $ETH ETF GROWTH PRICE DID MOST OF THE HEAVY LIFTING
U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs added roughly $23B in net assets last week.
At first glance, that number looks enormous.
But there's an important detail underneath it:
Only around $2.6B was actual new money.
The rest came from the assets inside the ETFs appreciating as crypto prices rallied.
Bitcoin moved roughly from $69K → $79K, while Ethereum climbed from around $2K → $2.42K.
That means net creations represented only about 11% of the total increase in ETF assets.
And I think that's the more interesting part of the data.
🟠 THIS WASN'T JUST A MASSIVE NEW CAPITAL WAVE
The ETF wrappers became significantly larger because the underlying assets became more valuable.
That's different from saying $23B of fresh institutional money suddenly entered the market.
The $2.6B of genuine net inflows is still meaningful.
But the market shouldn't confuse asset appreciation with new demand.
The next phase will tell us much more.
If BTC and ETH consolidate or pull back while ETF inflows remain positive, that would demonstrate that investors are still willing to allocate fresh capital even when prices aren't moving vertically.
That's a stronger signal of conviction.
🔎 WHAT I'M WATCHING NEXT
Price: Can BTC hold the recent breakout?
ETF flows: Does new money continue entering during consolidation?
ETH: Can its relative strength continue?
AUM: Does growth increasingly come from new creations rather than simply rising prices?
The rally has already made existing ETF holders significantly wealthier.
Now the question is whether new buyers are willing to keep paying these higher prices.
That's where the next real test of institutional demand begins.
$23B of additional ETF assets is impressive.
But the $2.6B of new money is the number I'm watching most closely. 📊The U.S. Treasury is repurchasing $4 billion of U.S. debt, starting from September 9 until November 4. The SEC has issued a regulatory framework. · The Treasury is effectively releasing QE on behalf of the Federal Reserve by repurchasing government bonds, which causes bond prices to rise. Whether the price is 100 or 110, the interest rate is 5%. People will be willing to take on risk investments. The yield on 30-year government bonds is too high, making corporate loans and tech company financing costs too expensive. Short-term positive impact for 2-3 months. What really determines whether BTC can continue to rise next is not this repurchase, but: 1. When the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates; 2. Whether CPI (inflation) will continue to decline; 3. Whether ETF funds will continue to flow in; 4. Whether the long-term U.S. Treasury yield can truly stabilize. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields ↓ → BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold usually tend to rise. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields ↑ → BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold usually tend to fall. · No action taken · No plans, never thought it would take off, not always prepared
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ Is there still room for growth in the storage sector? Yes, but the logic has changed—from broad gains to differentiation.
NVIDIA's earnings report tonight is the first key milestone. More than revenue, the gross margin guidance is worth watching: if NVIDIA absorbs the HBM cost itself and lowers the gross margin, it means storage manufacturers' bargaining power has increased; if it maintains 75%, the cost is passed downstream. Either way, HBM suppliers are in a favorable position. NVIDIA has locked in HBM supply for 2026–2027, and AI servers will see price increases of over 15% next year, which is a substantial positive for $SKHYNIX, Samsung, and $MU.
However, the market has already priced this in. After rumors that Rubin Ultra reduced HBM layers from 12 to 8, SK Hynix plummeted 19% in a single day, with Micron and $SNDK following—what's causing panic is not current profits but the possibility that high-end demand may fall short of expectations.
Apple's engagement with ChangXin Memory is a variable, but ChangXin's capacity is booked through 2027, making it difficult to impact the big three in the short term; long-term effects remain to be seen.
The probability of a price war is extremely low, as capacity is squeezed by HBM, and DRAM and NAND supply continues to tighten. The real risk is an excessively high "AI storage tax," forcing customers to cut configurations or switch to ASIC solutions, which would signal a cycle turning point.
Conclusion: Continue to be bullish on high-end HBM lines, but be cautious about marginal changes in mid- to low-end segments. NVIDIA's gross margin guidance tonight will be the short-term directional gauge.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
#英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 A $30T TAM makes an incredible IPO headline. Capturing it is another story. Anthropic's projected $190B-$200B revenue in 2028 would equal only about 0.6% of that opportunity. That's why I'd ignore the giant TAM and watch retention, pricing power and compute costs instead. AI can transform knowledge work and still produce disappointing returns if economics don't scale. The IPO shouldn't be valued on how big AI could become, but how much value Anthropic can actually keep. #Anthropic30TTAM BTC is once again hovering around 79,000.
There are about $6.4 billion in options expiring on Friday, so 80,000 is now a key level watched by both bulls and bears.
But I’m actually not worried right now.
ETFs have seen continuous inflows for several days, with another $314 million net inflow today. The funding gap for the year has already been mostly recovered. This shows that this level isn’t just being propped up by sentiment; spot funds are still coming in.
$BTC
#BTC80KHoldOrFold Iran Sanctions, Talks & Crypto
Iran–Oman talks are reviving hopes of a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, sending oil lower and easing immediate inflation fears. At the same time, Washington has expanded sanctions targeting Iran-linked networks, keeping geopolitical risk elevated
$BTC is holding near $79K, while $ETH remains around $2.5K. If diplomacy advances,falling oil and softer risk premiums could support crypto. But renewed escalation or tighter sanctions could quickly reverse sentimentThe market is quietly shifting gears, but many people are still fixated on Bitcoin's absolute price, overlooking the finer details of capital flows. Bitcoin firmly stands above $80,000, a position not supported by sentiment alone but backed by real money from ETF buying. Last week, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw a combined inflow of about $2.6 billion, a significant amount in any cycle, indicating that institutional funds have not exited but are reallocating their positions. The more interesting observation now is whether capital is starting to spread from Bitcoin to the periphery. Whether Ethereum can catch this overflow is the first signal to judge if the market can sustain its momentum. Following that, tokens with higher elasticity like BNB, OKB, and BICO will also become directions for capital testing. If this rotation holds, it often means market risk appetite is heating up, rather than simply betting on a single track. ETF flows remain the most direct thermometer, telling us where money is coming from and where it intends to go. Changes in Bitcoin's dominance are also worth noting; if this indicator loosens, it often signals that capital is willing to take on more risk to seek excess returns. Ethereum's relative strength is the fuse that can ignite the entire altcoin market. Looking at these three together paints a relatively complete market picture. Of course, rotation won't happen overnight and may involve repeated tests and false moves. Capital flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins is never a straight line but a process full of probing and adjustments. It's too early to conclude that the altcoin season has already started Nvidia (NVDA. O) will release its Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings after the U.S. market closed on Wednesday. Wall Street generally expects the company to maintain strong growth, but investors are no longer focused solely on how much revenue can grow, but on whether AI capital spending can be sustained and whether Nvidia can reduce its reliance on a handful of hyperscale clients. The options market has already priced in significant volatility after the earnings report. Based on current option prices, traders expect Nvidia's stock price to fluctuate about 6% in either direction by the end of this week. Based on Tuesday's closing price, a 6% increase could push the stock price to around $225, approaching the record set in May at $236; A 6% drop could push the stock price back below $202. So far this year, Nvidia's stock price has still risen 14%, but has already fallen more than 10% from its May high. What's even more noteworthy is that Nvidia's stock price fell the day after the last four quarterly earnings reports. Morgan Stanley analysts recently stated that they are not optimistic about this trend reversing. How many GPUs can hyperscale customers still buy? In recent years, hyperscale cloud service providers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have been Nvidia's most important customers, purchasing large amounts of GPUs to train and run AI models. Meta and SpaceX also continue to build their own AI infrastructure. But as Nvidia's market value reaches about $5 trillion, customer concentration has gradually become a concern for investors. The market is not only concerned about whether these large customers will continue to purchase, but also how quickly they can increase capital expenditures. In May this year,A long player known for high leverage on the chain has recently pushed his position to the limit, this time with a total holdings of $129 million, unified the direction of going long, maxing leverage to 12 times, and clearly not shorting. The entire operation is transparent and open on-chain; onlookers watch the liquidation price from morning till night, and whenever the market pulls back, the comment section is worried for him; Once the market strengthens, it is filled with cheers and applause. This player is known in the circle as a bull warrior, with a clear position structure: main bets are ETH, followed by BTC, paired with recently popular tokens like HYPE and PUMP, following a strategy of large coins seeking stability and smaller coins seeking flexibility. His previous performance was quite impressive; in the previous rally, he used $150,000 in principal to reach $11.15 million, nearly a 75-fold return, which greatly offset the losses from the past ten months. From the perspective of the capital curve, this is a typical all-or-nothing strategy to return profit, rather than stable compound interest. This style is highly attractive in a bull market atmosphere and can easily lead to the illusion that "heavy positions can guarantee success." But veteran players who have experienced multiple leverage cycles know that the biggest fear with high-leverage positions is not misreading the direction, but a sudden intraday spike. Even if the direction is ultimately correct, as long as the price first touches the liquidation line, the outcome of everything reversing to zero will not change due to subsequent rebounds. A classic script circulates among this player's fan base: when the market is good, he is the on-chain war god; when the market suddenly drops, he sells his NFTs to supplement the margin. This tactic has been countered in the past$ZEC price calls up to $8000, Grayscale really treats retail investors like fools!
Doesn't this old coin have any sense of its market cap? Blowing up such exaggerated numbers is nothing but a sign they're about to dump, quickly releasing big positive news to trick retail investors into taking the bags.
Go check the real smart money positions, the long-short ratio has already soared to 402%! 709 retail investors are holding $164 million in long positions up there. How could the main players possibly spend real money to prop up these $160 million longs to $8000? Such overzealous price calls are the biggest contrarian signal. Combined with the current slow downtrend, it's clearly a trap to hunt long liquidity downward. Going short is the right move!As of 17:00 on August 26, after a surge the previous trading day, international gold prices slightly retreated. London spot gold was quoted at about $4,625/ounce, and COMEX gold futures at $4,682/ounce; The main SHFE gold contract closed at 1,000.68 yuan per gram. Bitcoin briefly touched $81,237 on August 25, breaking through the $80,000 mark for the first time since mid-May. On August 26, Bitcoin fell back to around $79,000. Over the past week, Bitcoin has risen more than 21% cumulatively. One is a well-known "safe-haven asset," the other a typical representative of "risk assets." Two assets with very different attributes that should be "complementary" have strengthened simultaneously. What is the reason? Who is igniting it? A trading logic around $40 trillion in US Treasuries, US dollar credit, and "fiat credit hedge trading" is heating up again. Global gold ETFs saw $6.4 billion in weekly inflows. Since August, gold prices have experienced a sharp rally. On August 19, London spot gold briefly broke through the $4,500 per ounce threshold during trading, with a single-day gain of 4.36%. The upward trend did not stop. On August 21, spot gold broke above $4,600 per ounce, marking the first time since May 15. On August 24, international gold prices broke through again, with spot gold surging above $4,650 per ounce and New York gold futures surging intraday to break through $4,700 per ounce. On August 26, spot gold fluctuated around $4,630 per ounce. According to institutional forecasts, gold, which has risen nearly 15% this month, is heading toward "the first level since 1999."Bitcoin rose 20% this week, returning to $80,000. Don't rush to call it a bull market; first, look at three signals:
1. Long-term holders are taking profits, with veteran holders exiting faster than new ones.
2. The probability of a clear bill passing this year is less than 25%, regulatory benefits have not yet materialized.
3. $80,000 is a key resistance level since May, with bulls and bears battling here.
This rally looks more like a bear market rebound, not the start of a bull market. A true bull market requires regulatory implementation + large-scale institutional entry + breaking the previous high of $120,000, and none of these three conditions are met yet.
Don't chase the highs; wait for a pullback to 75,000 before considering. It's not too late to buy after breaking through 85,000.$ETH vs $BTC : Same Market, Different Structure
$BTC broke above $80K before pulling back, while $ETH rallied but remains vulnerable near $2.5K. The key difference is capital structure: Bitcoin benefits from stronger institutional and ETF demand, while Ethereum faces more leverage-driven volatility and selling.
Don’t assume ETH will react like BTC. Watch the ETH/BTC ratio: continued weakness signals relative underperformance and suggests ETH may need more time to absorb selling pressure. BTC returns to 79,000: $6.4 billion options settlement on Friday, $80,000 is becoming a real battleground between bulls and bears
BTC has once again hovered around $79,000, but this time the consolidation at the high level carries significant weight
About $6.4 billion worth of BTC options expire on Friday, with a large number of contract exposures concentrated near $80,000. As the settlement approaches, market makers' hedging and position adjustments may further amplify volatility.
More importantly, spot funds have not withdrawn. On August 25, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $314 million, marking seven consecutive trading days of net inflows; since August, cumulative inflows have exceeded $3 billion.
So what really matters now is not whether $80,000 can be reached, but whether $80,000 can turn from resistance into support
Holding at 79,000 indicates continued support at the high level; if there is a volume breakout and a stable hold above 80,000, short covering and position adjustments before settlement may continue to provide upward momentum.
Conversely, if 79,000 fails to hold and ETF inflows noticeably cool down, beware of a rapid pullback after a failed breakout
Watch 79,000 for support, 80,000 for confirmation. What truly determines the next phase of the market is whether spot funds can defend the 80,000 level. $BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC & $ETH :IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN?
In 2022, $BTC fell sharply in June, rallied through summer, then made a final move toward $16K before the cycle bottomed. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC has surged back above $80K, while $ETH has recovered toward $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2B in weekly inflows, while ETF activity has also strengthened around Ethereum.
Is this a genuine cycle bottom—or another powerful relief rally? $DOGE family, Bitcoin surged and then pulled back, with overall market sentiment swinging uncertainly. Dogecoin in this round showed a pattern of first a dump, then stabilization and recovery.
Let's first review the core data on the 1-hour timeframe:
Current price 0.08700
24h high 0.09074, low 0.08475
Bollinger Bands BOLL20: middle band 0.08685, upper band 0.08877, lower band 0.08494
Short-term moving averages: MA3: 0.08656, MA8: 0.08653
1-hour MACD: DIF -0.00078, DEA -0.00095, MACD value 0.00034, green bars disappeared, just turned into slight red bars, bearish momentum exhausted, short-term bulls begin to attempt a counterattack.
Market structure analysis
1. Sharp drop from high, bottoming then low-level consolidation to build a base
The hourly chart shows the highest point in the early session reached 0.09074, hitting resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, followed by a rapid sell-off down to a low of 0.08475.
After the decline, no new lows were made; the price stabilized above 0.08475 and gradually oscillated upward. Now the price has just firmly stood above the Bollinger middle band at 0.08685.
The Bollinger middle band at 0.08685 is the short-term dividing line between strength and weakness. Holding above it means the recovery trend continues; falling back below it means a weak consolidation pattern dominates again.Reviewing BTC's historical price trends, every time it breaks through a whole number threshold, there is a pullback. After breaking 60,000 in 2021, it pulled back to 50,000; after breaking 70,000 in 2024, it pulled back to 65,000. This time, after breaking 80,000, it pulled back to around 78,000, which aligns with historical patterns. Support and resistance levels: resistance at 81,266/82,000, support at 78,000/77,810. I am still holding my long position at 78,516, with a stop loss at 78,000 and a target of 82,000. Opened position with 5,000U, 10x leverage, risk-reward ratio 4:1. Currently recovering from a 200,000U loss, always use stop loss to avoid holding losing positions. Current price 78,706. $BTC#BTC breaking through $80,000, can it hold the new level The domestic crypto regulatory logic is changing, shifting from a simple one-size-fits-all approach to a combined approach of easing and tightening with classified governance.
Boundaries must be clear: For domestic transactions, exchanges, and intermediary promotions involving native virtual currencies like BTC and ETH, strict regulation remains unchanged, and the classification of related businesses has not relaxed.
The so-called "easing" mainly applies to blockchain technology and the compliant tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), reserving space for industrial innovation within a compliance framework, rather than loosening speculative trading of ordinary tokens.
Many traders easily misunderstand this industrial easing as a relaxation of coin speculation. This must be clarified: technology and industry can explore, but the risks of individual participation in virtual currency speculation have not disappeared.
Looking at the market, overseas BTC and altcoins mostly follow Federal Reserve policies, U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical events. The adjustment of domestic regulatory logic has limited direct impact on secondary market coin prices but more so changes the industry's long-term survival environment.
Do not be misled by headlines like "regulatory shift"; distinguishing between industrial policy and personal speculation is key.#三星巨额回报遭抛售，市场为何不买账？
A 110 trillion KRW plan, big numbers but lacking sincerity. No buybacks, no increase, decisions postponed until next year—the market votes with its feet, dropping 8.7%, because you offered the biggest pie in history but only let people lick it once.
Breaking down the plan, where is the problem? On August 21, Samsung approved a 2026 shareholder return of 90-110 trillion KRW (about $65-79 billion), five times the 2020 record. But only 30 trillion KRW in cash dividends were confirmed for Q3; the remaining 60-80 trillion KRW will be decided at the board meeting in January next year. The 15 trillion KRW buyback is only for employee compensation, not cancellation. The return ratio remains at 50% of cumulative free cash flow, unchanged, with no increase or plans mentioned beyond 2027.
Where is the market disappointment? JPMorgan listed three points: the Q3 committed amount is low, no buyback announced, and the return ratio unchanged. The market had previously expected far more than 110 trillion KRW; KB Securities even estimated 200 trillion KRW. Eugene Securities bluntly said: "Unlike SK Hynix, Samsung did not mention raising the existing policy nor announce a cancellation plan that could directly boost the stock price, which is disappointing."
Compared to SK Hynix: the difference lies in "execution certainty." Hynix announced a 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation, executed immediately, and raised the return ratio from "up to 50%" to "at least 50%." Samsung only confirmed 30 trillion KRW now, with the rest postponed until next year—the market wants "buybacks now," not "talk next year." $BTC Bitcoin Quarterly Return Review
Historical Pattern Observations
1. Quarterly volatility is extreme; single-quarter drawdowns can exceed -50%, and single-quarter gains can double or even multiply several times. High volatility is the norm.
2. Bull market phase: multiple years show two to three consecutive quarters of positive returns; bear market phase shows multiple consecutive quarters of negative returns.
3. Three quarters of 2026 have passed: Q1 and Q2 declined consecutively, Q3 rebounded sharply by +34.20%, and Q4 data is not yet available.
4. There is no fixed "which quarter must rise/fall"; history is for reference only and cannot be used to predict future market trends.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $BTC
Today's Market Overview
There’s quite a bit to cover today, so I’ll go step by step... First, let's talk about on-chain data..
1) Over the past few days, there has been a large volume of both old and new coins being sold to realize profits. Yesterday alone saw 1 billion in realized theoretical profits.. The daily profit-taking pressure remains relatively high but is gradually declining day by day.
2) In the past 7 days, long-term holders (LTH) have reduced their holdings by over 50,000 coins, while short-term holders have increased theirs by the same amount. In other words, old holders are selling while new participants are taking over.
So essentially, the old money is taking profits, and ETF funds are stepping in. These transactions are mostly OTC, so they are not very visible on exchanges.
3) The on-chain bull and bear models show that two indicators are still in the bull market zone.. overall, the structure remains intact (see Chart 1).
4) Currently, several important on-chain bull and bear lines remain above the price (see Chart 2).
The most recent is the True Mean Market price (TMM - the cycle bull/bear dividing line) at 76k.
The short-term trader average cost (short-term bull/bear dividing line) is now at 69k.
5) From the URPD chip distribution perspective.. from last Friday through the weekend, there was intense on-chain turnover above 77k.. URPD shows a peak turnover of over 100,000 BTC here.. (see Chart 4)
This area will become a fiercely contested zone between bulls and bears during any downward moves... (This is also near the aforementioned TMM True Mean Market price). Analysis of U.S. PCE and Q2 GDP Data and Impact on Bitcoin Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the revised U.S. Q2 GDP and July PCE price index will be released simultaneously. This is a key macro window ahead of the September Fed meeting, directly rewriting rate cut expectations and acting as a strong catalyst for Bitcoin, which is currently fluctuating at high levels. The preliminary Q2 GDP annualized 1.5%, below the market expectation of 2.1%. On the surface, the economy appears weak, but after excluding inventory and net export disturbances, the private domestic demand index soared to 3.9%. Strong consumer spending indicates the U.S. economy is "weak on the surface but strong on the inside," with no substantial recession. Consumer resilience will limit the Fed's room for rapid rate cuts. The market expectation for this GDP revision remains at 1.5%. If the data is revised upward, it means economic heat exceeds expectations and will suppress rate cut expectations; If it is revised downward, it is favorable for risk assets. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The market expects core PCE in July to be 3.2-3.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, still far from the 2% inflation target. Scenario 1: PCE exceeds expectations (hot inflation): Rate cut expectations are further delayed, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, Bitcoin is under short-term pressure, and pullbacks are likely to occur at the $80,000 level. The bullish short squeeze is likely to end temporarily. Scenario 2: PCE below expectations (cooling inflation): Rising rate cut expectations and improved liquidity expectations will help Bitcoin break through resistance above. However, the market is currently in an overbought zone, and even if positive news materializes, there is a risk of a "buy expectation and sell facts" leading to a sharp pullback. Scenario 3: Data meets expectations🔥Storage Triumvirate SNDK, SKHYNIX, MU, Brief Analysis of RWA Track Logic
The AI storage sector is heating up, with SNDK, SKHYNIX, and MU relying on the physical semiconductor industry, representing RWA-themed speculation, which differs from typical altcoin logic.
$MU Micron: Core AI computing power storage asset, tied to the NVIDIA supply chain, with solid fundamentals. Its price trend follows the US semiconductor sector, and contract volatility is heavily influenced by US stock market fluctuations. During sector pullbacks, retracements tend to amplify simultaneously.
$SKHYNIX Hynix: Global leader in memory chips, with a clear advantage in HBM production capacity. It leads sector sentiment, has the strongest elasticity, experiences sharp volatility triggered by news, frequent spike-and-dip washouts, making it more suitable for short-term trading.
$SNDK SanDisk: Deeply involved in the NAND flash memory sector, benefiting from the storage chip price upcycle. Its trend is relatively stable with stronger resistance to declines but less explosive compared to the other two, suitable for more conservative capital.
The price movements of these three are anchored to the US semiconductor industry dynamics and should not be traded with typical altcoin strategies. The sector's heat is just beginning, so blind chasing of highs is not recommended. Strict position control and stop-loss measures are essential when trading contracts.
Have you positioned yourself in storage sector tokens? Share your thoughts in the comments! #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 If global central banks abandon rate hikes and maintain easing within the year, risk assets whose valuations have been continuously suppressed by rate hike expectations are likely to see a valuation recovery window.
Overseas tech leaders NVDA, MSFT, storage sector MU, SKHY, as well as liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC and ETH, will all benefit from the sentiment boost brought by improved liquidity expectations.
Of course, this is only a forward-looking judgment by institutions; subsequent PCE inflation data and official statements at the Jackson Hole symposium are the key evidence to verify whether this logic holds.Neuberger Berman CIO throws a heavy-hitting view: global central banks may not raise interest rates at all this year, and the current market consensus might be proven wrong?
Maya Bhandari, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Multi-Asset Strategy at Neuberger Berman, recently expressed a view that directly contradicts the mainstream market pricing expectations.
Currently, the market generally prices in another round of rate hikes by major economies within the year, but her research team remains highly skeptical of this consensus logic.
The core logic is divided into three points:
First, since 2026, various macro data have continuously marginally validated that major central banks do not need to tighten aggressively at the pace the market expects; the real monetary policy environment will be more accommodative than trading expectations.
Second, reviewing the Fed's eight historical policy shifts, the underlying goals were always to stabilize growth and prevent systemic risks. Referring to the 2016 and 2019 market conditions, the market also priced in rate hikes in advance, but global central banks ultimately chose to remain accommodative, leading to a recovery in stocks and bonds. The current trajectory of U.S. Treasury yields may be forcing monetary policy to shift again.
Third, Neuberger Berman has already pushed the timing of major central banks' rate cuts back to 2027 but still does not agree with the market consensus of rate hikes within the year. From an asset allocation perspective, they are optimistic about risk asset recovery opportunities, focusing on U.S. equities, Asian and Japanese equity markets, as well as long-duration bonds in Europe and the U.S. $BTC continues to fluctuate below the 80,000 USD whole number level, with a large amount of options expiring soon making spot turnover here extremely sensitive.
The price oscillates repeatedly between 77,955 USD and 80,194 USD, with the more than 20% surge during the week temporarily slowing down before the 80,000 USD level.
Options with a notional value of about 6.44 billion USD are set to expire on Friday, with over 500 million USD positions densely concentrated within a narrow range of 5% around the current price.
The dense distribution of strike prices forces market makers to constantly adjust positions as spot prices fluctuate, and this hedging trading directly intensifies friction between 75,000 USD and 80,000 USD.
If spot volume breaks through and holds above 80,000 USD, market makers’ short hedging closeouts will turn into passive buying, pushing the price to open new upward space.
If the price falls below the intraday support around 77,800 USD, some profit-taking positions exiting combined with market makers switching to sell hedges may cause a short-term pullback quickly converging toward the 75,000 USD concentrated exercise zone.
As long as spot volatility is not released prematurely before options settlement, the passive game between bulls and bears below 80,000 USD will continue to suppress the choice of trend direction.
During the upcoming delivery window, the key observation is whether the pace of market makers releasing hedge positions near 80,000 USD will trigger a liquidity vacuum.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进$BTC US escalates sanctions on Iran, geopolitical logic requires re-evaluating the crypto market
The US has upgraded its economic blockade on Iran, with sanctions covering shipping, gold, and digital assets, restricting nearly 60 entities, primarily using economic pressure.
The Strait of Hormuz currently only allows temporary commercial vessel passage; permanent navigation will require 30-60 days of negotiations. The risk of maritime friction remains, and full navigation recovery is premature.
Do not blindly trust crypto's safe-haven narrative; Iran once had crypto assets worth billions of dollars frozen, and BTC cannot serve as a safe escape channel.
During tense situations, $BTC and $ETH are viewed as high-volatility risk assets and are sold off. Previous geopolitical disturbances caused over 100,000 people to be liquidated simultaneously.
Conversely, if the strait situation eases and oil prices decline, with reduced capital outflow from the tech sector, the crypto market may see capital inflows.
Mid-term summary: The more sanctions are implemented, the more crypto ties to market risk appetite. Do not blindly go long driven by war panic.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 The market is still shouting "The bull market is back," but the behavior of long-term holders (LTH) is undergoing a significant change. What was the situation before? Long-term holders have been continuously accumulating; in early June, the monthly average net increase in LTH supply reached 286,000 BTC. What about now? It has directly turned into a net decrease of about 21,000 BTC. And this is the first time this year that: BTC sold/transferred > BTC newly entering long-term holding status. Even more intense, the amount of BTC transferred by long-term holders to exchanges has risen to the highest level since 2026. Among them, the group holding for 6–18 months is the most active, transferring over 297,000 BTC to exchanges. In plain language, it means: Previously, everyone said: "I won’t sell when BTC drops, I’ll hold for years." Now that BTC is close to 80,000: "Brothers, I suddenly want to cash out. 😂" This is the place to watch most closely right now. Because market demand is indeed recovering, BTC has returned to a strong zone and even recently broke through $80,000 at one point. But the problem is: buying is increasing, and old coins are starting to flow out. If demand continues to strengthen, these coins might be smoothly absorbed by the market, and the market will continue to surge. But if the buying can’t hold... then it’s not just a "bull market correction." It could become: BTC rises → old holders sell → market pressure → bulls panic → profit-taking continues to dump → leveraged positions liquidate. So what is most taboo now#OKX Million Planner
If I were really given 1 million U, I wouldn’t just guess whether BTC will be 70k or 100k by the end of the month; I’d place orders in advance for all three scenarios.
200k for the ticket: 150k BTC spot + 50k out-of-the-money long-term Calls. If it really takes off, at least I’m on the train.
500k to "hold the belly": layered buying at 77k/74k/70k, half in spot, half selling Cash-Secured Puts. If it doesn’t drop, I collect premiums; if it really drops, I get BTC, which I wanted to buy anyway.
300k reserved as ammo: bottom-fishing after extreme panic stops, or chasing after a confirmed breakout above 90k.
After receiving BTC from Puts, I don’t just lie flat; I turn around to sell Covered Calls to keep collecting rent.
My logic is simple:
If it rises, I have the tickets; if it falls, I catch the goods; if it’s sideways, time pays me rent.
The direction can be wrong, but 1 million U can’t have only one way to live.
#OKX Million Planner Strategy raising $2B without buying BTC looks unusual, but the $5.1B reserve may matter more than another purchase. More cash means greater flexibility to service obligations, buy BTC during weakness or support its securities without becoming a forced seller. The trade-off is dilution today for optionality tomorrow. Strategy's next move will reveal the real plan. If that cash goes into BTC, the corporate bid returns. If it goes to buybacks, the playbook has changed. #StrategyBuildsCash SKHY current price is 1241, rising intraday from 1182 to 1252, a single-day increase of 6%. Market rumors say that all products in related stores on the Taobao platform have been removed and operations are planned to be terminated.
Essentially, this store is a third-party authorized dealer whose contract has expired and will not be renewed, not SKHY headquarters withdrawing from the Chinese retail market. The stock price has not only resisted pressure and declined but has strengthened, also confirming that the market does not view changes in consumer retail channels as a core negative: SKHY's revenue focus is on B2B industrial, server storage, and HBM supply businesses, with consumer retail accounting for a very low proportion of total revenue.
From a technical indicator perspective:
SAR=1151 forms support below; EMA21=1222, EMA55=1206, price stands firmly above all moving averages, short-term trend turns stronger.
RSI6=61.85, in a neutral to slightly strong range; KDJ indicator J value surged to 108.6, K=82.24, D=69.06. J value breaking through 100 indicates strong short-term upward momentum, while also signaling the market has entered a short-term extremely overbought zone.
If the price holds above 1250, it is expected to continue testing higher; if it pulls back after a surge, around 1200 will be a key support level.
Comparing the internal trend of the storage sector horizontally, SKHY's trend is significantly stronger than Micron and SanDisk, the latter still oscillating below 1500. Benefiting from the high prosperity narrative of HBM, capital is willing to give a higher valuation premium.
However, doubts remain: if the overall storage sector enters a correction cycle later, relying solely on the sentiment boost from the HBM theme,#BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level? Bitcoin $BTC surged past 80,000 these days, reaching an intraday high near 81,200 for the first time since mid-May. But it didn't hold, now it has fallen back to fluctuate around 78,000 to 79,000.
This rally was rapid, gaining more than 20% in a week. The reasons are basically a few things: The US Treasury said it will increase repurchases of long-term bonds, the market sees this as a form of easing, and money is flowing into assets like Bitcoin; the spot ETF attracted nearly $2 billion last week; shorts were squeezed out, and the more it rose, the more people bought.
80,000 is a round number, good for appearances, but it hasn't truly become support yet. There are still trapped positions near the May high, the rise was too fast and overbought, so some taking profits is normal. These days, attention is also on the US PCE inflation data and the Jackson Hole meeting; once news comes out, the price may fluctuate again.
Whether it can hold, don't just look at the round number. First see if it can hold around 79,000, then see if ETF money continues to flow in. If it holds, there’s a chance to look at 82,000 and 88,000; if it doesn't, a pullback to 75,000 to 76,000 is very likely.
It's still far from last year's high of 126,000, so it's a bit early to call a new bull market. Short-term volatility will be large, don't chase the highs, watch volume and capital flow, which is more reliable than focusing on round numbers. Top influencer's Meme coin promotion post deleted at lightning speed: The harvesting pipeline behind controlling 40% and rapidly cashing out 2425 SOL
According to moonsollx on-chain monitoring, after Kylie Jenner, a top influencer from the Kardashian family, posted a promotion for the Meme coin KYLIE on Twitter, the behind-the-scenes manipulation team used a set of precisely coordinated related wallets to instantly withdraw about 2425 SOL at the peak of retail investors' follow-up buying liquidity. Even more shocking, the project team had secretly controlled nearly 40% of the token supply before posting, and the promotional post was quickly deleted afterward.
This celebrity endorsement combined with lightning-fast pump-and-dump and post deletion once again exposes the harsh exploitation tactics behind celebrity Meme coins.
In this mature assembly-line operation, retail investors are not facing a fair community launch celebration but a liquidity trap designed from the code deployment stage. The manipulators use automated tools to disperse massive chips into dozens of unrelated shadow wallets in advance, waiting for the moment when social media traffic reaches tens of millions to trigger a coordinated cluster sell-off, directly exchanging retail investors' real money for SOL and withdrawing it.
Deleting posts afterward, feigning ignorance, or blaming account hacks have long become standard disclaimers for the manipulators. In this brutal jungle lacking fundamental support and transparent lock-up constraints, celebrity influence is wielded as the sharpest tool to stab fans.
Not blindly buying celebrity-endorsed tokens is the iron rule for survival on-chain. Before rushing into any hot token, checking chip concentration and position overlap is far more effective at preserving principal than blindly following the crowd. Jane Street holds 5% of SanDisk, and the most interesting part of this news is not "the quant giant is bullish on storage".
The 13G filing seems more like a passive disclosure and does not mean they are stepping in to transform the company. But the market will interpret it together with the AI storage narrative, which is quite subtle. Because a stock like SanDisk is no longer just a traditional storage cycle trade; it has been incorporated into a combination of AI data, inference demand, SSD price increases, and high valuations.
I would be more cautious. Jane Street's move could be a directional bet, a trade structure, or related to hedging. External investors find it hard to read the full intent from a single holdings disclosure.
But it does remind the market that AI storage has shifted from an industry chain topic to an asset that Wall Street capital is willing to repeatedly price. Going forward, volatility will only increase, not become gentler.
#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视 Today's market in one word: waiting.
The crypto market is undergoing a broad pullback and consolidation. $BTC is hovering around 78,000, $ETH is gathering momentum at 2,450, and $SOL has retreated from 100 to 97. The US stock AI sector continues to face pressure, with NVDA down seven consecutive days; tonight's earnings report will be decisive, and storage chips have been hammered for three days straight.
Two major variables are intensively unfolding this week:
1. Nvidia's earnings report tonight (early morning August 27 Beijing time): revenue expected at 92 billion USD, guidance will determine global AI chain pricing.
2. Jackson Hole meeting tomorrow (August 27-29): Kevin Warsh's speech, interest rate signals will decide the direction of risk assets.
These two events will set the tone for the market in the coming week:
- NVDA beats expectations + dovish Jackson Hole = crypto and US stocks soar together
- NVDA misses expectations + hawkish stance = crypto and US stocks get hammered together
- One good, one bad = continued divergence and volatility
ETFs are still seeing continuous inflows (BTC has had positive inflows for 7 consecutive days, ETH has seen 1.23 billion inflows over 30 days), institutions have not exited. The short-term pullback is due to deleveraging and profit-taking, not a deterioration of fundamentals.
Trading advice: control your position before major events, don't bet on direction. Wait for data before deciding; staying alive is more important than being right.For over a decade, one idea has stood out to me: Combine Bitcoin’s strength as digital capital with Ethereum’s programmable rails. BTC has won as the premier digital asset. Ethereum pioneered on-chain capital markets. Instead of forcing competition, why not integrate the best of both? Think of it like HTTP built on top of TCP/IP. The internet scaled when powerful applications were layered on top of a secure base. Crypto may follow a similar path. If Bitcoin gains modern rails, native yield, and 24-hour level, first time potential energy decay!
On August 22, BTC at $78,000 had a realized profit 24-hour peak of $100 million; on August 22, BTC at $80,600 had a peak of $181 million.
The price is higher, but the realized profit is not higher. Those who have been following my tweets should know what this means, right? Come on, tell me loudly....
Right! — It represents potential energy decay.
Normally, when the price soars, market trading should also be more active. Profit-taking emerges, funds are absorbed, and the price is pulled up; this is a sign of strong demand.
Conversely, if there is an "upward divergence," it means the driving momentum is starting to weaken.
But "weakening" does not mean an immediate "drop"!
It can also be broken by the next wave of demand or a secondary divergence. Until the price holds but the potential energy seriously shrinks.
At least what I can see now is that there was a little problem before $81,000.
It needs to be emphasized that this is not telling you to short!
Rather, if the "small problem" gradually grows bigger, then those who missed the previous opportunity should pay attention and hurry to find a chance to get on board.