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$2450 ETH, are you chasing it? First, look at the surface: a violent rebound, retail investors shouting "back to the peak." Up 30% in a week, surging from 1900 straight to 2530, the strongest weekly gain since May 2025. But the candlestick tells you: the daily RSI has reached 75 in the overbought zone, funding rate turned positive to an annualized 11%, and the long-short ratio is heavily skewed—this is not the start of a main upward wave, but a high-level digestion phase. First thing: weak dollar + short squeeze, not a sudden fundamental bull shift. On August 19, US Treasury repo expectations weakened the dollar, shorts got swept away. Weekly short liquidations jumped, single-day short liquidations exceeded 100 million—the price was "squeezed up" by derivatives, on-chain fees followed later. Glamsterdam upgrade is scheduled for Q4 2026, Fusaka scaling story has long been realized. The protocol has no "immediate bullish bomb," the price rise reason is already priced in. Second thing: institutions are buying, but you have to see how they buy. BlackRock bought nearly $700 million ETH in one week, BitMine bought another 32,400 coins last week (about $81 million), holdings close to 5% of circulating supply, most already staked. Institutions are "allocating," retail investors are "gambling." Third thing: technically, it has reached a "long-short equilibrium point." Above 2500-2550 is a dense area of weekly moving averages + this round's high, below 2415-2380 is the first support. Daily RSI at 75 overbought, funding rate annualized 11%—longs are paying shorts. This is not the early stage of a trend, but a late-stage characteristic. Only above 2550 can we talk about 2700-3000; breaking below 2380 means looking at 2300 or even 2220. Long-short showdown, you decide. On one side: ETF net inflow nearly $700 million in one week, BlackRock main buyer BitMine holdings close to 5% of circulating supply, real money accumulation Staking rate 32%, circulating supply continuously locked Weak dollar + rate cut expectations still fermenting mid-term On the other side: 30% weekly rise, RSI 75 overbought, funding rate turned positive Failed three times to break 2500-2550 New catalysts not until Q4, news vacuum period Macro uncertainty before September FOMC Resistance above: 2470-2485 → 2500-2550 (strong resistance) → 2700 → 2820 → 3000 Support below: 2415-2380 → 2300-2220 → 2000-2085 (major defense level) Trading strategy (no nonsense) Plan A: Buy the dip Wait for 2380-2410 to show lower wick and volume bottoming before entering, stop loss if daily close breaks 2300, target 2470-2500 → 2530-2550. Reduce position at 2530, don’t be greedy. Plan B: Breakout chase Close above 2550 on 4H or higher timeframe, pullback not breaking 2500 before chasing, target 2700 → 2820 → 3000. Plan C: Short at high levels Small short positions on rejection between 2470-2530, stop loss above 2560, target 2450 → 2415 → 2380. Position risk control: Single trade risk no more than 1%-2% of total capital Chasing longs at current price no more than 30% of normal position Funding rate annualized 11%, overnight longs have cost Deleverage before FOMC on September 15-16 What is ETH like now? Like BTC in September 2021— After a 30% weekly rise, everyone shouted "100k," but it consolidated sideways for two months before truly breaking out. 2450 is not a place to go all-in, it’s a test. The test is whether you can control your impulse. Wait for the dip, wait for the breakout, wait for certainty—this is ten thousand times more important than gambling on direction at this level. Are you long or short at 2450? How are you planning to trade this ETH wave? $BTC $ETH $SOL