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$SPCX's first earnings report after listing far exceeded expectations, but the lock-up period follows closely behind. So, should you chase the price higher now or hold and watch?
☝🏻 In the short term, watch for selling pressure from the lock-up expiration; in the mid to long term, focus on the monetization of Starlink and AI computing power. If you're investing real money, it's better to wait for the selling pressure to settle rather than gamble on a bullish surge.
From the just-released Q2 data, SpaceX's cash generation ability is astonishing. Quarterly revenue hit $7.814 billion, doubling year-over-year, and operating loss narrowed sharply to $143 million. Starlink alone brought in $4.291 billion in revenue and $1.656 billion in operating profit this quarter, already becoming a highly mature cash cow.
Space AI is even more imaginative. AI-related revenue in Q2 rose to $2.561 billion. The company also partnered with NVIDIA to develop the Starmind computing payload equipped with Rubin architecture chips. This effectively moves computing power into space, using endless solar energy and vacuum cooling to break through terrestrial power grid bottlenecks, creating huge narrative potential.
But why does the market remain cautious?
Because early VC and employee stock costs were extremely low, with a trillion-level valuation, cashing out after lock-up expiration is inevitable. Plus, quarterly AI capital expenditure reached $15.8 billion, so there is objective pressure on cash burn.
🪁 Here are three clear predictions for the upcoming trend:
First, sharp stock price fluctuations around the lock-up expiration are unavoidable. The greater the prior gains, the stronger the cash-out desire; the market needs time to test new capital's absorption capacity.
Second, the valuation logic will undergo a second reshaping.
Once the Starmind satellite with NVIDIA chips is successfully validated next year, the company will leap from a space satellite network to the world's first orbital AI computing center.
Third, in terms of strategy, patience is more proactive than rushing in early. Facing the collision of positive news and lock-up expiration, the safest approach is to stay on the sidelines. If selling pressure triggers an indiscriminate pullback, it will actually create a very attractive long-term buying opportunity.
Going forward, just watch two signals closely: one, turnover rate and absorption strength around the lock-up period; two, whether Starlink user growth slows. As long as the fundamentals remain unchanged, the pullback is a ticket for long-term capital to enter.BTC determines the overall risk premium for the market, while altcoins undergo extreme selection within that frame. Why is mistaking a short-term rally as a trend reversal the most costly mistake? The key facts presented in the original text are clear. Currently, the market is not a general rally, but rather a win-takes-all phase where liquidity is concentrated in a handful of assets. There is a stark contrast between asset classes with stable trading volumes, confirmed institutional demand, and sustainable catalysts, and those that relied on simple temporary momentum. From the perspective of price structure and supply-demand, BTC continues to serve as the overall market's risk appetite benchmark. ETH is relying on institutional capital inflows and recovery in on-chain activity, while SOL functions as an L1 option for funds seeking high beta. TAO and WLD in AI stories, and LINK and ONDO in RWA infrastructure, are each the axes absorbing new demand. On the other hand, SHIB, TRUMP, and VIRTUAL are in a period where speculative funds are clearly flowing out. What this structure means🚀 $PUMP Jumps 15% as a Short Squeeze Fuels Momentum
$PUMP rallied 15%, climbing to approximately $BTC 0.00245, with the move largely driven by a wave of short covering.
📈 What's Behind the Rally?
The catalyst appears to be a short squeeze.
Following the recent token unlock, only around 4% of the unlocked supply reportedly made its way to exchanges. The anticipated wave of selling never materialized, leaving many bearish traders on the wrong side of the trade and forcing them to buy back positions, accelerating the rally.
🔥 Ongoing Pump.fun token buybacks and burns continue to provide a deflationary narrative, helping support market sentiment.
⚠️ What to Watch Next
While the price action has been impressive, the move appears to be driven more by positioning and sentiment than by a major shift in fundamentals.
Keep an eye on:
• 📊 Changes in open interest and short positioning.
• 💰 Exchange inflows and liquidity.
• 🔥 The pace of future token buybacks and burns.
Momentum can extend during a squeeze—but chasing rapid moves always carries elevated risk.
$BTC $ETH
#PUMP #Crypto #MemeCoins #ShortSqueeze #EarningsRealityCheck #EarningsRealityCheck #AMDBeatsButDrops The cash flow generated by Starlink is simply not enough to cover the extravagant spending on AI and Starship. Even a 92% surge in SPCX revenue cannot hide the fact that $18.4 billion was burned in a single quarter. Positive earnings reports cannot offset concerns about the cash flow chain, and with the lock-up expiration approaching, a short-term adjustment for $SPCX is inevitable.
From a business model perspective, PCX consists of a closed loop of three segments: Starlink is responsible for stable profit generation and providing cash flow, AI drives growth acceleration and valuation potential, and Starship serves as the underlying infrastructure. Rockets launch satellites, Starlink earns money, which is then reinvested into AI and the next-generation Starship. If this cycle works, it will no longer be a traditional aerospace company but a platform combining transport capacity and computing power.
Why does the stock price fall despite earnings beating expectations? The core issue is that the profits earned by Starlink currently fall far short of covering the bottomless investments in AI and Starship. The $18.4 billion capital expenditure in the quarter directly shattered market confidence in free cash flow. The market acknowledges its growth but fears it will completely drain cash flow to maintain that growth. Coupled with the approaching lock-up selling pressure, the after-hours decline is very reasonable.
I remain bullish long-term but can wait for a better price. The next three key indicators to track are:
1. Whether Starlink can increase average revenue per user while doubling its user base
2. Whether AI revenue growth can outpace massive expenditures and losses
3. Whether Starship can increase launch frequency and reduce unit costs
Before the cash flow risks and lock-up selling pressure are digested, patiently waiting for a pullback is the safer strategy.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
@OKX星球 If you can't even "guess the top or the bottom," then no matter how accurate your market intuition, you'll only return profits to the market. Have you ever thought that what truly widens the gap isn't who sees things more accurately, but who controls their own hands during the same fluctuation? I browsed through a recent batch of fluctuating small-cap tokens and listed a long list of streaming data, and I couldn't help but laugh as I read. $LAB circulating 32%, $SOON 33.8%, $HOME even 42%, while the $UP on the other side is only 12.5%, $LIGHT 10.2%, and $GRVT 11.43%. On the same sheet, some coins have almost all their chips already unused, while others are still holding most of them untouched. This difference in the market is like two completely different games. A low circulating market means unlocking, selling, and pulling up the market are all easier to operate, and it also means that even the slightest movement in the news can create a curve that makes your heart race. Stocks like $HOME and $EDEN, which already have high circulation, seem more like competing for genuine buying volume; whether they can hold up depends entirely on whether the market is willing to take them. But what I want to say is not which coin will rise. What I care about more is which direction the money is testing in this market cycle. Look, $GIGGLE, $PIPPIN, $ORDI, $SATS, $MUBARAK, $ACT—these old faces are back in the spotlight. The meme popularity hasn't faded, just changed in style. The funds haven't left; they're waiting for a more comfortable entry point.The latest on-chain data shows that BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) made a single purchase yesterday worth approximately $170.3 million in BTC — equivalent to nearly 2,700 bitcoins, and the inflow of funds is still ongoing.
This is not an isolated case. Since late June, IBIT has recorded net positive inflows for multiple consecutive days, sharply contrasting with the panic sentiment among retail investors during the same period. On one side, the fear index hovers around 26, with retail investors shouting "too quiet to move"; on the other side, Wall Street whales quietly accumulate while liquidity dries up.
Although this $170 million buy order is not large enough to directly drive the price up, its signal significance cannot be ignored:
1. Institutions are quietly positioning during the "boring market" — while retail investors are stuck debating whether 64K will break, ETF funds continue to add positions amid divergence, often a buildup phase before a major market move.
2. The supply-demand balance is tipping — with stable daily inflows of tens of millions of dollars combined with reduced output after the halving, market sell pressure will gradually be absorbed. Once the upper liquidity cluster (64,800–65,000 USD) is broken, short squeeze could be much more intense than expected.
3. But this is not a signal for "immediate takeoff" — ETF purchases are mostly passive custody and do not directly affect market prices, and short-term movements are still influenced by macro sentiment and options expiry. Caution is advised when chasing highs.
Operationally, closely monitor subsequent ETF flow data. If continuous net inflows form a trend, the "golden pit" below 64K may be validated; otherwise, the consolidation pattern is unlikely to change.
The biggest risk in the current market is not a decline, but "you think no one wants it, but chips are actually being quietly accumulated." Don't wait until after a rally to ask "can I still chase?"
What do you think? Is the ETF's continuous accumulation a signal of a bottom, or just institutions hedging positions? See you in the comments.#TrumpMinerLossAddsBTC
Trump-backed crypto mining company American Bitcoin reported a quarterly net loss of approximately $19.2 million, yet the company continued increasing its Bitcoin reserves by adding more BTC to its balance sheet. Rather than slowing its accumulation strategy, management emphasized a long-term commitment to Bitcoin despite short-term financial pressure. The results highlight a growing trend among public mining companies that view Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset rather than simply inventory to be sold after mining. (CoinDesk)
For the Web3 ecosystem, this sends an interesting signal. Mining companies have traditionally been forced to sell Bitcoin regularly to cover electricity and operating costs. However, as access to institutional financing improves, some miners are choosing to hold a larger portion of their BTC, betting that long-term appreciation will outweigh near-term earnings volatility. If this strategy becomes more common, it could gradually reduce selling pressure from miners and strengthen Bitcoin’s supply dynamics over time.
My view is that investors shouldn’t judge crypto companies solely by quarterly earnings. Traditional businesses are often valued based on profits, but Bitcoin-focused companies operate under a different framework where treasury strategy, asset accumulation, and capital allocation can matter just as much. While persistent losses are never ideal, a disciplined approach to building Bitcoin reserves during periods of uncertainty could prove far more valuable if the next market cycle continues to reward long-term holders. S&P 500 Surpasses 7700 Points for the First Time, Behind the AI Frenzy, Can Risk Assets Continue to Rally?
The U.S. stock market has once again hit a new record.
The S&P 500 index has broken through 7700 points for the first time, setting a new historical high.
This rally differs clearly from previous bull markets:
The market is no longer simply trading on economic recovery but is trading a sector revaluation driven by AI.
From Nvidia to Microsoft, and then to tech giants like Google and Amazon, capital is continuously raising expectations for the AI era.
However, after reaching this all-time high, new questions arise:
Is this rally driven by real profit growth or by valuation expansion?
Over the past year, the biggest theme in the U.S. stock market has been AI.
Nvidia became the market’s core stock thanks to the explosion in GPU demand.
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and other tech giants have been increasing their investments in AI infrastructure.
Many companies have started deploying AI applications.
The market believes AI will reshape the entire industry structure just like the internet era did.
Therefore, capital is willing to assign higher valuations in advance.
But the S&P 500 breaking 7700 points also means the market is entering a new test phase.
A new index high does not mean all companies are rising.
The current market rally remains highly concentrated in large tech companies.
These companies have:
Stronger cash flow.
Higher profit margins.
Greater AI investment capacity.
But the problem is clear:
If future AI investments cannot quickly translate into profits, the market may reassess current valuations.
Because capital markets love the future, but ultimately must return to earnings reports.
This is somewhat similar to the development of the crypto market.
In recent years, the crypto market has also shifted from narrative-driven to value validation.
Bitcoin’s price currently hovers around the mid-$60,000 range.
With spot ETFs entering the market, BTC’s capital structure has changed.
Previously, the market relied more on retail sentiment.
Now institutional capital, macro environment, and dollar liquidity have become more important variables.
BTC’s future upside depends not only on market enthusiasm but also on whether capital continues to flow in.
Ethereum’s price currently fluctuates around $1800.
ETH faces issues somewhat similar to tech stocks.
The market recognizes its long-term value, but investors are beginning to demand clearer proof of growth.
Stablecoins.
RWA.
DeFi.
Layer 2.
Whether these ecosystem directions can truly generate network revenue will affect ETH’s future valuation.
SOL remains a highly watched, high-volatility asset in the crypto market.
Over the past year, Solana attracted significant capital through low fees, high transaction activity, and the Meme ecosystem.
But high-growth assets share common traits:
They easily attract capital during uptrends.
They are more prone to volatility when the market cools down.
The S&P 500 surpassing 7700 points indicates that current market risk appetite remains strong.
But new highs often mark a time for the market to reassess value.
Investors will focus not only on:
Whether prices can continue to rise.
But also on:
Whether profits can keep pace.
Whether capital continues to flow in.
Whether valuations are reasonable.
The same applies to the crypto market.
In the next phase, the market will not only reward hot assets.
Whether AI stocks or crypto projects, the ultimate determinant of long-term value is whether market expectations can be converted into real growth.
New highs are not the end.
The real test often begins after new highs. $BTC #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 From a book value of $25 million to zero, a brutal collapse of technological idealism in the crypto circle!
ai16z founder @shawmakesmagic's piece, which can be called a desperate farewell letter, is quite poignant.
Once a top AI+Crypto project, it ultimately ended with the foundation dissolving, the treasury emptied, and the token completely declared dead.
Here is a summary of the whole story:
1️⃣ Initial aspiration and explosive growth: Shaw's vision was to build a powerful open-source AI Agent underlying system, later renamed Eliza, empowering DAOs with AI.
Riding the wave, the associated token ai16z once soared in market value, and Shaw's personal book wealth reached as high as $25 million.
2️⃣ When the tide receded: token prices fell, and no one cared about the hardcore code they wrote.
The community was filled with endless online abuse, insults, and infantile complaints.
Shaw worked himself to illness but was called a fraud every day.
3️⃣ Team out of control:
To cater to the market and make money, the team internally collapsed first.
Some took salaries to write competing products and ran away, some got addicted to drugs, some fought internally.
4️⃣ The fatal blow: the big losing investor Burwick filed a lawsuit.
Because the team lacked legal funds to resist, they were forced to compromise, using all the remaining money and tokens in the treasury to settle, completely exhausting their resources.
5️⃣ Severance and break-up: Shaw announced he would completely abandon the token.
He proved his innocence, stating he only earned a regular programmer's salary and never cashed out; the $25 million book wealth went straight to zero.
Next, he will take Eliza's IP back to pure open-source AI development, never, ever letting Eliza touch tokens again.
Shaw said in a tweet that the community is full of infants and gamblers, but if we take a broader perspective, this is actually a tragedy caused by the complete erosion of trust in the entire crypto industry.
Because in recent years, there have been too many projects ruthlessly exploiting investors without bottom lines.
Big promises, insider trading, running away right after launch... have long exhausted the trust and confidence of token holders.
Now retail investors are scared of being scammed; everyone has completely lost the patience to accompany a project’s long-term growth.
As soon as the token price drops, everyone's first reaction is: "It's over, I'm trapped again, the project team is going to run away."
This extreme lack of security, a kind of PTSD, turns into insults and attacks on developers.
The cost is that truly good projects and earnest Builders now face even tougher situations.SpaceX Latest Earnings Report Analysis: Performance and Valuation Battle Amid High AI Investment
Overnight, the US stock market strengthened overall, with all three major indices closing higher, led by technology growth and AI storage sectors. After-hours tech stocks showed slight divergence with limited overall volatility, as capital continues to favor the medium- to long-term prosperity of the AI industry chain.
$SPCX closed up 9.43% in regular trading on Tuesday, with the market preemptively betting on earnings recovery. However, after releasing its first Q2 earnings report post-listing, concerns about capital realization intensified, causing the stock price to fall more than 6.8%. The core disagreement centers on the company's extremely high AI capital expenditures.
This earnings report shows overall performance improvement and narrowed losses, but the business investment structure is heavily skewed toward AI, which is the main reason for the after-hours weakness.
Current SPCX valuation logic:
- Starlink is responsible for stable cash generation as a safety net
- AI is responsible for high-risk expansion
Stock price movement entirely depends on whether cash generation can continuously cover the high AI investment and whether orders can be successfully realized.
▶️ Overall Performance and Capital Expenditure Structure
SpaceX's fundamentals significantly improved in Q2, with revenue nearly doubling and net loss substantially narrowing year-over-year, showing continuous profitability recovery.
The real core highlight is the extremely skewed capital expenditure allocation.
This quarter, 86% of SpaceX's capital expenditure was invested entirely in AI business, amounting to $15.828 billion, which is more than twice the company's total revenue for the quarter. This clearly shows Musk's current resource allocation priority, with AI becoming the company's primary strategic focus and traditional aerospace business investment priority significantly deprioritized.
▶️ Core Cash Flow Base: Starlink Business
Starlink is $SPCX's only core asset generating positive cash flow and the confidence behind the company's willingness to keep heavily investing in AI 💰
This quarter, Starlink achieved $1.656 billion in operating profit, with user scale doubling year-over-year, driven by continuous expansion of government and enterprise clients.
Monthly revenue per user slightly declined, but the overall model is scaling up profitably.
Currently, both aerospace and AI businesses are operating at a loss, fully relying on Starlink's profits to hedge and support.
In comparison, Starlink's business model is mature with solid cash flow;
Starship project burns cash but has business synergy value;
Only xAI purely relies on heavy computing power investment to scale, with contract cycles shorter than asset investment cycles, lacking independent cash generation ability, making it a high-risk asset backed by Starlink's cash flow.
▶️ AI Business Implementation Progress
Although AI business is in a large investment phase, order realization is orderly and not just burning cash.
Currently, $14.1 billion in cloud service contracts have been secured, but revenue will not be recognized all at once; it will be gradually realized through subsequent service delivery ✅
Meanwhile, the company has finalized a stock acquisition deal for Cursor, expected to close after Q3 approval, further improving the AI ecosystem layout with strong implementation potential.
▶️ Earnings Call Core Industry Insights
@elonmusk's views in this call precisely explain the underlying logic of the company's all-in AI computing power strategy and align with the current real industry prosperity.
First, there is a severe imbalance in AI memory supply and demand:
Industry memory annual capacity growth is only 20%, but AI-driven real demand growth exceeds 200%, continuously widening the supply-demand gap.
Data from the industry chain upstream and downstream also confirm that customer actual demand far exceeds the industry's long-term expansion plans. The current mismatch of low valuation and high prosperity in the storage sector will continue, with strong fundamental support.
Second, a long-term firm commitment to Nvidia computing power. The company has set clear computing power expansion targets, aiming to exceed 2 gigawatts within the year and sprint to 10 gigawatts next year, with long-term computing power demand continuously expanding.
At the same time, it officially announced a long-term priority to select Nvidia architecture products, directly locking in future large procurement demand, strongly supporting Nvidia's medium- to long-term performance.
▶️ Valuation Logic and Follow-up Core Tracking
Currently, $SPCX has sufficient cash reserves and can fully withstand the high-intensity AI cash burn in the short term, with no immediate cash flow risk.
The real issue lies in the medium to long term. The company is now a typical "stable cash flow supports high-risk expansion" model, with low overall fault tolerance, fully tied to Starlink's profitability resilience.
Simply put, as long as Starlink's profit growth remains stable, it can continuously fund the AI business, allowing large orders to gradually convert into real revenue, supporting valuation;
Once Starlink growth weakens, combined with rigid high AI spending, capital pressure will quickly emerge, leading to rapid valuation correction.
The current market disagreement on $SPCX essentially bets on whether Starlink's cash generation can outpace AI's cash burn.
At present, xAI business cannot yet contribute positive returns and remains a valuation drag. The real turning point in layout will appear after the market fully digests AI's high investment risks and the company actively controls capital expenditure pace.#USJapanYenIntervention
The coordinated intervention by the United States and Japan to support the Japanese yen has become one of the biggest macro stories in global markets. After the yen weakened to its lowest level in nearly four decades, both governments stepped into the foreign exchange market in a rare joint operation—the first coordinated intervention of its kind since the late 1990s. The move was aimed at reducing excessive volatility and restoring confidence, although many analysts believe long-term stability will still depend on future monetary policy rather than intervention alone.
For the Web3 market, currency intervention is more relevant than many crypto investors realize. A stronger yen can reduce the appeal of carry trades, influence global liquidity, and reshape capital flows across international markets. Since Bitcoin and other digital assets have become increasingly correlated with macroeconomic trends, changes in foreign exchange policy can indirectly affect crypto sentiment. As institutional investors allocate capital across multiple asset classes, developments in the currency market often ripple into both traditional finance and digital assets.
My view is that this event reinforces an important lesson for Web3 participants: crypto no longer exists in isolation. Exchange rates, central bank policies, and geopolitical decisions now have a meaningful impact on digital asset markets. Investors who only follow on-chain metrics may miss the bigger picture. Understanding how global macro events influence liquidity and risk appetite can provide a stronger edge than focusing solely on token-specific news. 微软和Meta的财报把市场劈成两半，一边是云收入超预期的欢呼，一边是资本开支无底洞的焦虑。过去只要 capex 往上走，股价就跟着飞，现在资金开始问一句：钱烧完，单子在哪？自由现金流又在哪？七月底这轮财报给出答案，AI 叙事没死，但产业链正在被重新分层定价。 最狠的一步棋来自 $NVDA。据华尔街日报，英伟达在讨论为 OpenAI 租用的俄亥俄州数据中心提供约2500亿美元融资担保，这个园区规划容量10GW，背后是软银旗下能源公司。这意味着AI竞赛的战场已经从单纯采购芯片，蔓延到信用背书和融资结构。谁承担风险，谁享受回报，边界开始模糊。$NVDA 表面是在帮客户落地，实际上把自身资产负债表也押上了牌桌，这比卖卡赚利润的含金量高得多，但风险的重量也完全不同。 苹果成了这场军备竞赛里的另类，资本开支轻、现金流厚，反而被部分资金当作反AI CapEx 的避风港。市场没有放弃 AI，只是开始挑剔谁在为远期增长买单，谁已经拿到真金白银的订单。微软和 Meta 的分化会持续，而在 $NVDA 的信用杠杆撬动下，AI基础设施的金融化才刚开场。我的判断是，算力需求长期看涨，但债务风险和回报兑现的博弈会#MSTRSells1638BTC
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has once again become the center of attention after disclosing the sale of 1,638 BTC for approximately $105 million. Unlike its previous “buy and hold” narrative, the company said the proceeds will be used to fund preferred stock dividends, repurchase STRC preferred shares, and strengthen its cash reserves. The move marks another shift in capital management rather than a complete change in its long-term Bitcoin strategy.
For the Web3 community, this news highlights an important reality: even the biggest Bitcoin believers must manage liquidity and balance sheet obligations. Many investors have viewed Strategy as the ultimate Bitcoin proxy, but today’s decision shows that corporate treasury management is far more complex than simply accumulating BTC. Companies need to balance shareholder returns, financing costs, and market conditions, even if that means selling part of their crypto holdings. This is a reminder that institutional adoption doesn’t eliminate financial discipline—it makes it even more important.
My view is that the market may be overreacting to the headline. Selling 1,638 BTC sounds significant, but it represents only a tiny fraction of Strategy’s total Bitcoin reserves, which still exceed 840,000 BTC. The more meaningful takeaway isn’t the sale itself—it’s the evolution of Strategy’s business model. As more public companies adopt Bitcoin treasury strategies, investors should expect capital allocation decisions to become increasingly sophisticated. Long-term conviction in Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily mean never selling; sometimes it means managing assets in a way that keeps the broader strategy sustainable. Just after 2 PM, I took a quick look at the market; BTC is still hovering around 64,000, up about 1% in the last 24 hours. This morning it surged to around 64,400 but then got pushed back down—same old story—someone sells as soon as it rises a bit.
The biggest news today is that there has finally been progress between the US and Iran.
Qatar and the US both confirmed that negotiations are advancing well, and the Strait of Hormuz might reopen. Oil prices crashed, dropping over 4%. With inflation worries easing, US stock futures and crypto assets all rallied. The Dow and S&P hit record highs last night. With the US stock market this strong, BTC can at least catch a bit of the upside.
However, two things are a bit unsettling.
One is that the Coldcard hardware wallet hack is still unfolding. Losses have exceeded $100 million. Hardware wallets have always been considered the "safest," but this belief is now shaken. Funds are starting to concentrate into BTC, with BTC’s market share rising to 58.76%. People still trust the big coin more.
The other is that the probability of a September rate hike has risen again. CME data shows a 67.2% chance of a 25 basis point hike, with only 32.8% chance of no change. The impact of the recent Powell press conference is still felt; the market basically expects a September hike as a done deal.
From a technical perspective, $BTC is currently at the end of a converging triangle between 63,000 and 64,200. 64,250 is a short-term key level—if it breaks out with volume and holds, we could see 65,500-66,000. Below, 63,000 is the first support; if broken, look to 62,200.
Honestly, this position is quite awkward. There’s pressure from rate hike expectations above and support from easing geopolitical tensions below—caught in a dilemma. I choose to wait and see, waiting for a clear direction. With ADP on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls on Friday, the market will likely consolidate in this range until the data is out.
This is my personal view and does not constitute any investment advice.
$BTC $BTC
The Fear and Greed Index today is 26, still curled up in the "Fear" zone. So some people start repeating the old saying: "Be greedy when others are fearful" — as if a drop in the number means you should blindly buy the dip.
But be clear: the fear index is never an automatic buy button.
It only measures the emotional temperature, but never tells you which way the water will flow. What truly determines the value of buying the dip is whether capital quietly enters during fear, not the emotion itself.
What we see now is:
· BTC price repeatedly bottoming, weak upward momentum, low volume on dips;
· Altcoins overall silent, no profit-making effect;
· Hard to find traces of incremental funds, stablecoin premiums remain depressed.
This atmosphere is better described as "quiet" rather than "panic" — like an empty street in the cold winter, not the wailing after a blizzard, but a stalemate where no one wants to reach out.
The former is numbness, the latter is despair, and their values for buying the dip are worlds apart.
The "bloodbath" bottom is marked by blood-stained chips everywhere; while the "ignored" quietness is often just a breeding ground for a downward continuation.
Don't mistake quietness for opportunity, and don't let the toxic chicken soup of "be greedy when others are fearful" intoxicate your risk control awareness.
The truly worthwhile moments to act are either after panic has been fully vented with a volume spike long wick, or when incremental funds significantly flow back and heat restarts. Before that, watching more and acting less is wiser than blindly entering on the left side.
Finally, a question: right now, are you fearful, or... bored?
Share your true feelings in the comments. $SPCX retail investors are still celebrating the violent surge in the market and chasing longs, unaware that the short sellers' sickle is already gleaming coldly—this is not alarmism, but the barefaced strategy of Wall Street shorts.
1. Short ammunition is fully loaded, chips are nearly exhausted
Data shows that over 95% of the market's borrowable shares have been swept up by shorts, with 34% of the circulating shares held as massive short positions pressing down hard. The nominal short positions reach $24.6 billion, a scale even exceeding Tesla. Such a crowded shorting field is not something retail investors can move, but a coordinated action by top capital.
2. The "bull trap" before earnings, a net already set
After-hours earnings were just released yesterday (August 4), but during regular trading hours there was a violent price surge—stock price soared over 9%, seemingly a positive pre-run, but in fact a carefully laid "false breakout" trap by the short sellers. Although revenue surged 92%, huge losses and capital expenditures exceeding expectations instantly triggered selling pressure. After-hours, the stock price plummeted over 8%, falling straight from $131 to $113, perfectly illustrating the classic "bait the bulls, then harvest" play.
3. A bigger "nuclear bomb" is yet to come: massive unlock on August 6
The earnings disappointment is just an appetizer; the real fatal blow comes this Thursday (August 6)—a massive 911.5 million restricted shares will be unlocked, instantly doubling the publicly tradable shares. At that time, industrial capital and early shareholders will rush to exit, combined with the existing massive short positions, resulting in an epic "waterfall" crash.
4. Don’t be the bag holder, follow the shorts’ main force and go with the flow
Capital is determined to exert extreme pressure using the double negative of earnings and unlock; any short-term rebound is an opportunity to add to short positions. Retail investors chasing longs now are like moths to a flame. Smart money has already positioned for shorts, what are you waiting for?
Risk warning: The 34% short ratio also means that if a short squeeze occurs, the rebound will be extremely intense. Please strictly control your position size and set stop losses. But given the current situation, shorting remains the highest probability direction. Eli Lilly——$LLY —— Pre-market report submitted, I opened the market screen and watched for ten minutes without movement
Originally wanted to check AMD and SpaceX earnings before the market, but after a round of browsing, I found Eli Lilly's data more explosive.
Revenue 21.37 billion, up 43% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by over 1 billion. Adjusted EPS $7.03, beating expectations by about $0.35. Mounjaro sold 9.25 billion, Zepbound sold 4.97 billion, totaling 14.2 billion, just the weight loss drugs alone are equivalent to a whole other company.
But what really made me stop was Foundayo, the oral weight loss drug, which sold about 320 million. Approved for market in April, it reached this number in less than a quarter, and the market response is indeed good.
Then I saw news saying Eli Lilly is developing a new generation triple agonist Retatrutide, clinical data is out, weight loss effect stronger than existing drugs, preparing to submit FDA application early next year.
Honestly, Q1 results were already announced once, the stock price barely moved, slightly down 0.5% after earnings, closing near 1120, and the current trend still hasn't given much positive feedback. Normally, this data would have launched another company, but Eli Lilly has only risen 7% this year, down about 10% from last year's high of 1249.
Maybe the market has really priced in too much expectation for GLP-1, instead waiting for new things. The preliminary data of oral drug Foundayo counts as one, Retatrutide counts as another, and the gene therapy acquisition of Kelonia also counts. The management's guidance call basically maintained the full-year guidance unchanged, meaning no raised expectations, with this year's revenue guidance still in the 80-83 billion range.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 ……$LLY —$XLLY When everyone thought large models had to be packed with computing power and burn graphics cards, DeepSeek trained top-tier models at extremely low cost. This is not just a technological show, but could fundamentally change the cost structure of the AI industry—and market pricing is only just beginning to react. Today, $SNDK saw a volume increase of $2.28 billion, and $MU volume increased by $460 million—this is exactly the logic behind it. Outline of this article – 💡 It's not a new model, it's a 'money-saving method' – 🔥 Why it can shake the foundation of a trillion-dollar market cap – 📊 Who is eating meat, who's getting hit – 🎯 Your watchlist and action signals 1. What 💡 exactly is DeepSeek? You can think of it as the 'pre-made dish' of the AI world—using fewer fresh ingredients (data) and shorter cooking time (computing power) to create dishes comparable to chefs (top models). DeepSeek is not a company, but a low-cost training methodology with the core idea of "maximizing the use of existing resources." By sparsing hybrid expert models (MoE), dynamic computational allocation, and efficient parallel strategies, it enables a model with 3 billion parameters to activate only a very small portion during training, greatly reducing training costs. Traditional large models require thousands of $NVDA A100/H100 tokens, while DeepSeek only needs a tiny cluster, with training costs only one-tenth or less than one-tenth of models with the same performance. This is not a lab toy; its DeepSeek-V2 model is currently in benchmark testingThe temperature under the camo suit has dropped to freezing point, and the observation lens shows no emotion, only the target distorted by the heatwave hundreds of meters away.
AMD has just pulled the trigger on Q2: quarterly revenue of $11.54 billion, a year-over-year surge of 50%, with data center business skyrocketing 107% to $6.7 billion, swallowing half of the total revenue. The pre-market crowd was still celebrating the adjusted EPS of $1.66, thinking it was a perfect armor-piercing bullet tearing through the night sky. However, the after-hours stock price instantly plunged over 8%, stunning all the blindly following retail investors.
In the view of a top sniper, there is no "better-than-expected" celebration on the battlefield, only the brutal calculation of whether the bullet's initial velocity can withstand wind resistance. The 56% gross margin seems solid, but as Helios enters mass production and delivery, capital hunters no longer care about how many prey you hit in the past, but whether your chambered spare ammo can support the next round of saturation attack. Under the high-magnification scope, AMD's overvaluation disguise is instantly stripped away, and even a Q3 revenue guidance as high as $13 billion cannot suppress the retreat horn of profit-taking bulls.
The wind direction reversed instantly. In the silent lurking period, the worst thing is to blindly pull the trigger when the wind speed suddenly changes.
Shifting the view from the main US stock battlefield back to US stock Token targets like $XCRCL, the killing power of on-chain undercurrents is even stronger than traditional markets. In the liquidity vacuum after US market close, $XCRCL's trading anomalies are the most sensitive barometer. Panic selling in traditional markets quickly transmits through tokenized channels, and those chips barely surviving behind on-chain high-leverage cover become direct targets of liquidation procedures.
This high-frequency oscillation of US stock-linked Token targets is essentially a sniper battle over the "chip center of gravity." When the US stock spot market contracts due to valuation doubts, the on-chain liquidity pool produces strong ballistic deflection. Those who die halfway up the mountain are always the rookies who shoot based on feeling without any wind correction plan.
I don't care about the noisy shouting in the market. At this moment, I am lying low on the cold ground, fine-tuning the micrometer screw on the spectroscope. Earnings beating expectations but suffering a bloodbath indicates the market's risk appetite is undergoing a bloody reshuffle. Only when high-level chips are completely cleared and turnover forms an indestructible defensive cover at the bottom will the real shooting window reappear.
The barrel's residual heat is still dissipating, but I will never press the trigger when the wind speed is unstable.
No perfect risk-reward ratio, so I continue to load and lurk in the shadows. #AMDBeatsButDrops If trading volume increases and prices stay, which way should $BTC go? To be honest, I was a bit hooked watching the market. In the past 24 hours, $BTC has been bouncing repeatedly within the 63,450 to 64,542 range, with a fluctuation of less than 2%, but trading volume has reached $375 million, a 20.82% increase over the previous 24 hours. Volume has clearly expanded, but prices remain stagnant like dead fish. Experienced players know what this means — chips are changing hands, and you have to choose your direction. 📊 The real intention behind the volume-price game: Don't rush to open an order yet; let's break down the market and look at it. $BTC is now at 64,363, with a 24-hour increase of +0.87%, appearing calm and uneventful. But when you pull out the volume data, it gets interesting: 375.34M USDT in trading volume is not something retail investors can afford to dump. Volume expands but prices remain sideways, indicating that at this level, some are buying large amounts while others are selling heavily. Long and short funds are locked in a life-or-death battle near the 64,000 threshold. From the moving average system, MA7 is at 64,218, MA30 is at 63,985, and the current price is firmly above both moving averages. Although the short-term moving averages are still in a bullish alignment, their advantage is extremely weak. Prices follow the moving averages and could change direction at any time. Looking at the MACD side, DIF has already fallen to 164.24, DEA is still above 175.11, and the histogram shows a green bar at -21.74. Although bearish momentum has mostly faded, it hasn't turned positive yet. In this state, the direction hasn't been clearedWestern Union has advanced stablecoins from "exchanging after transfer" to "direct spending after receipt."
The newly launched Stablecard initially covers 37 markets, with plans to expand to more than 60 markets by the end of 2026. Based on a minimum of 60 markets, the coverage area will need to expand by at least 62% within half a year.
This product integrates the USDPT digital wallet and Visa card into a single app. Users can receive Western Union remittances directly into the USDPT wallet, transfer between compatible wallets and exchanges; the balance can then be used for online shopping, in-store purchases, and ATM withdrawals, and can be linked to Apple Pay and Google Pay.
The underlying USDPT is issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, deployed on Solana, pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, with reserves composed of US dollar deposits, short-term US Treasury bonds, and similar cash equivalents.
Western Union brings significant distribution capability. Its business covers more than 200 countries and regions, nearly 130 currencies, and has hundreds of thousands of offline service points. Partner Rain is a major member of Visa and Mastercard, with card issuance infrastructure connecting 175 million merchant acceptance points across more than 200 countries and regions.
However, the on-chain scale is still very small.
The total stablecoin supply on Solana is about $15.81 billion, of which USDC is about $7.01 billion, accounting for 44.35%; in the past 7 days, the total stablecoin supply on the chain decreased by about $840 million, a drop of 5.04%. In contrast, the current USDPT supply is only about $7 million, accounting for about 0.044% of Solana's total stablecoin supply, less than five ten-thousandths.
This contrast shows that Stablecard has a large real-world entry point, but USDPT itself is still in the early expansion stage. Launching in 37 markets does not mean that funds have already entered the chain on a large scale; it remains to be seen whether remittance users are willing to keep the received funds as digital dollars rather than immediately converting them into local currency.
In actual consumption, merchants do not need to recognize USDPT. Users hold on-chain dollar balances, while merchants complete transactions through Visa's familiar acceptance system. This structure bypasses the challenge of educating each merchant to accept cryptocurrency, while placing Solana at the base layer of wallet transfers and stablecoin circulation.
The three most valuable upcoming data points are whether USDPT circulation can break through $100 million, whether active addresses and transfer volumes grow synchronously, and after expanding coverage from 37 to more than 60 markets, how much of Western Union remittance funds choose to remain as USDPT.
Currently, the $7 million supply looks more like a product starting point. Only when remittance, holding, and spending form a continuous cycle will Western Union's global network truly convert into stablecoin activity on Solana.
#西联推出稳定币卡，接入Solana生态 #OilDropsBelow80
Oil prices have fallen below the $80 mark as markets react to growing optimism that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could ease. Reports suggesting progress toward a potential U.S.-Iran agreement have reduced concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, leading traders to unwind part of the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed crude prices higher in recent weeks.
Although lower oil prices are generally viewed as positive for the global economy, they also reveal how quickly markets adjust to changing expectations. For the Web3 sector, cheaper energy could indirectly benefit Bitcoin mining operations by reducing operating costs in some regions, while easing inflation pressure may also strengthen expectations for a more supportive liquidity environment. When macro conditions become less restrictive, risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—often receive renewed investor attention.
My view is that this isn’t just an oil story—it’s another reminder that macro events continue to shape the crypto market. Too many investors focus only on on-chain data while overlooking global trends such as commodities, interest rates, and geopolitics. As Web3 becomes increasingly connected to traditional financial markets, understanding these broader economic signals may offer an edge that pure technical analysis cannot.
#DailyOrbit $SNDK #财报观察员: Mixed earnings, lock-up expiration approaching! What’s next for SpaceX? • Earnings are the core variable: SNDK will report FY2026 Q4 results after the US market closes tonight. The company’s own guidance is revenue of $7.75–8.25 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $30–33; Wall Street consensus is more aggressive (revenue about $8.7 billion, EPS about $35). The pre-market decline mainly reflects funds rebalancing between "yesterday’s 10% jump" and "waiting for earnings today."
• Position and chips: Yesterday’s close at 1427 is still below the 20-day moving average (about 1475) and the 52-week high of 2354, a pullback of about 39% from the June peak. At this level, earnings tend to cause volatile two-way swings—if results beat expectations, it could surge to 1450–1500; if results disappoint or guidance is conservative, it may retest support at 1300–1340.
• Sector environment is warm: Last night Micron +7.6%, SK Hynix +8%, ARM +17%. The storage supercycle plus data center NAND shortage logic remains, but valuations are no longer cheap (TTM PE ~49x), reducing earnings tolerance.
Scenario assessment (not investment advice)
• Base case: After digesting pre-market selling pressure, oscillate between 1360–1430, awaiting after-hours earnings;
• Earnings beat/guidance raise: Night session jump to 1460–1520;
• Earnings meet expectations but guidance is flat, or no surprise in gross margin/data center orders: Pull back to 1300–1340 or even test 1288, yesterday’s pre-close.The Debt Death Spiral of Ordinary Retail Investors
August 5, 2026.
Yesterday, I talked about the loan repayment cycle, and I have many reflections.
The vast majority of people may spend their entire lives caught in a death spiral between borrowing and repaying loans, with very few able to escape this cycle.
During a bull market boom, everyone keeps borrowing to buy coins.
During a bear market trough, everyone keeps selling coins at a discount "month after month" to repay debts.
Until most people have paid off their debts. (12 months)
Most loan cycles generally last about 12 months.
The loan repayment cycle is absolutely the most critical part of the overall cycle; this force has a profound impact on the cycle until leverage is cleared.
I have always advised everyone to wait for the bear market adjustment to last a full year.
This is mainly considering the "loan repayment cycle" factor.
By then, the bear market is almost over, but the long-lasting pain has left most people without the courage or funds to position themselves.
So at the beginning of the bull market, everyone is either out of the market or lightly invested.
After enduring long-term debt pressure and finally clearing their debts, everyone fears leverage and dares not take on debt again.
Major market bottoms precisely occur when no one has the courage.
Leverage will be completely cleared out by the late stage of the bear market.
For example, a major sell-off wipes out the last batch of leverage.
With chip restructuring, most people have neither money nor courage.
After the bull market cycle runs for another 1 to 2 years, the collective gradually emerges from the shadow of the bear market and dares to boldly borrow and enter the market again.
This leads to a new round of "loan repayment cycles."
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(08/04, 26) Reading Notes and Reflections:
The loan repayment cycle is still ongoing...
No one can deny that the vast majority of people in the market lose money.
Sell when everyone is borrowing, buy when everyone is paying off debts.
Reading history makes one wise; history is not only a record of past events but also the key to understanding the future.
Market prosperity and depression alternate cyclically.
When a group of people fantasizes that this time is different, that this bull or bear market will last forever, it means disaster is imminent.
Cycles are the inevitable result driven by human greed and fear.
History repeatedly proves that trees do not grow to the sky, valuations will eventually revert to the mean, and investors should learn to use mean reversion.
If the bull market buying relay fails, a crash will occur.
If the bear market selling relay fails, a surge will happen.The silicon grown from sand is now rewriting the load-bearing walls of the global data foundation! While you’re focused on the August 5th earnings blueprint, my eyes are on a different construction plan—the HBF standard jointly poured by Sandisk and SK Hynix, a prefabricated beam specially forged for AI inference engines!
Anyone in construction knows that how tall a tower can be built never depends on how flashy the glass curtain wall is, but on how deep the underground piles are driven. AI data centers are the hottest skyscraper projects right now, and storage flash is their raft foundation. In the past, everyone built walls with NAND and framed with DRAM, but HBF essentially integrates steel reinforcement and concrete into a single shear wall—to withstand the vertical load of several terabytes per second during AI inference!
Looking at the supply side, SK Hynix says the shortage peak will be in 2027. Isn’t this a classic case of a building materials market mismatch cycle? Like before copper prices surge, the cable inventory in your hands is like gold bars. DRAM, HBM, and NAND are all tight, equivalent to rebar, cement, and sand all running low simultaneously—the construction site hasn’t even started, but the material yard is already empty. Bulls say this is a golden window for a pro-cyclical upswing; bears say the price increases on the blueprint are already welded into the concrete.
But don’t forget the iron law of our industry: any scarcity of building materials is ultimately resolved by the next generation of structural technology. The HBF construction standard has just been established; whoever grabs the standard-setting rights will be the structural engineer of the next era. Sandisk’s earnings report is just the first stress test—let’s see if this construction team has enough materials to pour the core tube of the next phase AI skyscraper.
The foundation is shaking, the welds are trembling, but the shadow of the tower crane already reaches the 2027 skyline. #sandiskearningswatchDamn, $BTC rose another 0.9%. That's ruthless. My plan for trading $BTC rose 62,999.71% today, and there are more posts in the group chat. Long position cost is 63,000, 7x leverage, floating profit is 1,363.53U, and the strong break-even price is at 54,450. ⚡️ To speak from the heart: trading volume was 375.0MU, signaling both contraction and volume. As for the moving averages, the average is 64,218 and 63,985, so the trend is still good. Don't scare yourself before the moving average breaks down; the moving average is at 64,218. Let's break down the indicators. Personally, I have always believed that stop-losses are a lifeline, but 90% of people treat stop-losses as mere decoration. This is how you train your market intuition. Are you like this too? You can't hold onto profitable orders, and treat losing ones as family heirlooms. Don't be fooled by today's excitement; in the long run, it's just volatility. I fixed the stop-loss line at 8% below the cost. Once it hits, I exit—no negotiations. FTX Collapse (2022-11): Exchange misappropriation triggered a run, BTC fell to 15,000 but quickly rebounded. A truly big market always starts quietly. The weekly chart closed bullish, which is more convincing than the daily ten-day winning streak. VWAP is the institutional reference line; a price below VWAP indicates that those who bought that day are on average losing money. A big bullish candlestick that changes one's values often ends up losing to the next big bearish candlestick. The first thing this market taught me is reverence. 💀 A sharp drop isn't scary; it's a gloomy fall that torments you. One day is the most painful feeling. Just take screenshots of others' profits; your own account is the real deal. FOMO (FalseFor core assets like $HYPE, $WLD, $ENA, $ONDO, $INJ, $SEI, $TIA, $CORE, $PYTH, $TAO, $FET, $JUP, $EIGEN, $RENDER, $OKB.
The future competition focus will shift from market hype to real usage.
As for $SLX, $LAYER, $APR, $PIPPIN, $LIGHT, $GIGGL, $COMP, $GPS, $LAB, $CHIP, $BEAT, $BSB, $RAVE, $MRVL, $H, $DOGE, $ZEC, $ALLO, $PARTI, $HMSTR, $HOME, $OFC, whoever can continuously attract capital will be the one to achieve higher valuations $AMD plunged sharply after hours. The company released its earnings report today, both metrics exceeded expectations, but the guidance was slightly disappointing. I also went to the company's frontline for research.
Having worked on the front lines in Silicon Valley for many years, I have built connections across various companies. Today, I chatted for three hours with an old friend who does chip CoDesign with AMD. For stock investing, you really need to get firsthand information from Silicon Valley's frontline to gain insights that most of the market cannot get.
During the conversation, I noticed employees were leaving work around 3 or 4 PM, and the work atmosphere didn't seem particularly intense. Everyone had smiles on their faces. I still have quite a bit of faith in AMD, but I won't blindly bottom-fish at the moment.
Tonight, I will continue doing detailed research.
Following up on the detailed AMD article I posted last time, the scheduling between CPU and GPU has reached a 1:1 ratio. My computer runs over a dozen agents, and the CPU goes crazy.
A good CPU doesn't necessarily mean AMD's price is good; Nvidia's Vera CPU is also very good.
Many analyze the books after hours, but few come to the frontline to investigate. This is what my account is dedicated to providing you.
If you have any questions about these frontline Silicon Valley companies, feel free to collect them in the comments section. I chat a lot normally, and while I might not reply to every comment promptly, I do see them all and can later open a dedicated post to answer everyone's questions.🛢️ Hormuz is about to reopen, and the war premium is drained in one breath
· Besente: It is possible to reach an agreement with Iran tomorrow to open the Strait of Hormuz
Rubio: progress in the negotiations; Iran's position softens, considering letting Europe into the Strait for mine clearance
· WTI intraday -5%, falling back to $74.66; Stoxx600 hit a new high in July
Once the oil collapses, the logic of "war = inflation = interest rate hike" becomes loose. Half a month ago, the market was afraid of oil prices pushing up inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to not cut interest rates. Now this downward catalyst is being dismantled one by one, and risk assets collectively breathe a sigh of relief - half + 6%, Intel + 10%.
The only thing that's still pretending to sleep is encryption. $BTC is stuck at 64K, and risk assets do not follow when they rise, but they fall when they fall. This divergence of "following the decline and not following the rise" is the most important signal to focus on now - the narrative favors the bulls, but the price has not caught up.
Don't rush to translate macro positives into reasons to buy. We'll wait for BTC to get its own direction, then we'll talk about whether to follow. Walk to see 🧊$BTC $ETH $
#DailyOrbit #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
SpaceX's first earnings report after going public greatly exceeded expectations, but the lock-up period follows closely behind. So, should you chase the price higher now or hold your coins and wait?
☝🏻 In the short term, watch for selling pressure from the lock-up expiration; in the mid to long term, focus on the profitability realization of Starlink and AI computing power. If you are investing real money, it's better to wait for the selling pressure to fully materialize rather than betting on a bullish rally for $SPCX
From the just-released Q2 data, SpaceX's cash generation ability is astonishing. Quarterly revenue reached $7.814 billion, doubling year-over-year, and operating loss narrowed sharply to $143 million. Starlink alone brought in $4.291 billion in revenue and $1.656 billion in operating profit this quarter, already becoming a highly mature cash cow.
Space AI is even more imaginative. AI-related revenue in Q2 rose to $2.561 billion. The company also partnered with NVIDIA to develop the Starmind computing payload equipped with Rubin architecture chips. This directly brings computing power into space, using endless solar energy and vacuum cooling to break through the limitations of terrestrial power grids, creating huge narrative potential.
But why does the market remain cautious?
Because early VCs and employees have very low cost bases, and with valuations in the trillions, cashing out after lock-up expiration is inevitable. Additionally, quarterly AI capital expenditure reached $15.8 billion, so there is objective pressure on capital consumption.
🪁 The upcoming trajectory can be predicted with three clear points:
First, sharp stock price fluctuations around the lock-up expiration are unavoidable. The greater the prior gains, the stronger the desire to cash out, and the market needs time to test the absorption capacity of new funds.
Second, the valuation logic will undergo a second reshaping.
Once the Starmind satellites equipped with NVIDIA chips are successfully validated next year, the company will leap from a space satellite network to the world's first orbital AI computing power center.
Third, in terms of strategy, patient waiting is more proactive than rushing ahead. Facing the collision of positive news and lock-up expiration, the safest approach is to stay on the sidelines. If selling pressure triggers an indiscriminate pullback, it will actually create a very attractive long-term buying opportunity.
From now on, just watch two signals closely: one is the turnover rate and absorption strength around the lock-up period; the other is whether Starlink user growth slows down. As long as the fundamentals remain unchanged, the pullback is a ticket for long-term capital to enter.
Not investment advice DYOR While BTC anchors the overall market's risk appetite, the altcoin rise is proceeding as selective liquidity inflow rather than broad-based growth. Haven't we already witnessed multiple times that the moment short-term rallies are mistaken for long-term value, the market tries to shake positions exactly at that point? The recent days' upward movement has been summarized in the community as the return of alt season. However, looking at the actual capital flow, the story is different. Liquidity remains trapped in a very limited set of assets, and the rise is closer to a liquidity absorption game in specific asset groups rather than a general rally. The assets where funds are currently actually residing are BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, HYPE, LINK, AAVE, and KAITO. The common traits of these assets are steady trading volume, confirmed institutional demand, and sustainable catalysts rather than short-term events. This is a phenomenon reflected not in rumors but on-chain data and order books. The next candidates for capital rotation are TAO, WLD, SUI, ONDO, ENA, SEI, and HUMA Bitcoin's short-term activity has already approached historical lows.
Many people think this is a bad thing.
But historically, it's often quite the opposite.
Because the real bottom never forms when everyone is optimistic; it gradually emerges when everyone feels uninterested and unwilling to watch the market.
However, low short-term holder activity does not mean the price will immediately rise.
Historically, in 2015, 2019, and the end of 2022, such indicators remained low for extended periods.
The market can consolidate at the bottom area for several months or even longer.
For long-term investors, this is a very noteworthy signal.
Regarding this round of market adjustment, I strongly agree with one saying:
Truly cheap assets are often not believed to be cheap when bought; when they are truly expensive, everyone thinks they can still go higher Restaking is the second native asset of $ETH: turning 4 million staked ETH into the "trust supplier of the entire network"
If you only see ETH as Gas + collateral, you are underestimating its most aggressive expansion layer in 2026—Restaking.
EigenLayer (now EigenCloud) peaked at $1.5 billion locked in early 2026, accounting for about 94% of the restaking market, locking 4.36 million ETH; even after the Kelp bridge hack in April and the EIGEN token unlocking in June which caused TVL to drop back to $4.7 billion, it remains the only service in the ETH ecosystem that externalizes "mainnet consensus security" as a commodity.
Its strategy in one sentence: the ETH you have already staked originally only secured the ETH mainnet; now it can be "rented" out again to act as shared security collateral for EigenDA, ZK co-processors, RWA Oracles, AI inference verification, and other AVS (Active Validation Services)—the same capital earning double or multiple yields.
This directly elevates $ETH from a "single-purpose collateral" to the "base currency of the trust wholesale market." By August, over 20 AVS were running on EigenLayer, about 1,900 operators, and a16z had cumulatively staked $170 million in EIGEN—smart money is not chasing the EIGEN token price but betting that "verifiable computation/verifiable cloud" will long-term capture the compliance attestation demand of AI + RWA.
But this move is even riskier than RWA; don’t treat it as just a bonus:
Risk stacking is not multiplicative but exponential: ordinary staking only fears consensus slashing; restaking adds AVS slashing + LRT bridge risk + contract risk. The $292 million Kelp bridge vulnerability in April is a live case study, with the entire LRT TVL evaporating 80–95% at that time.
Real cash flow is still thin: most LRT real-world yields are 3.5%–5%, the so-called 10%+ mostly includes token emissions; if AVS annual fees to restakers don’t reach the $50 million level, restaking economically can’t compete with ordinary LST.
Concentration is a systemic risk: 94% market share + 4.36 million ETH locked under the same slashing logic means if one major operator fails, it triggers correlated slashing, not just a single-point failure.
RWA brings "Wall Street assets" onto ETH; restaking rents out the "existing 4 million security capital of ETH" to the world as a notary. The former turns ETH into financial infrastructure, the latter turns ETH into a trust wholesaler—together, these two are the real moat for $ETH relative to Solana/BNB Chain in 2026.## August Kickoff: Directional Choices Hidden in the Quiet
BTC is consolidating narrowly around $64K with light trading during the Asian session. Although the price has rebounded about 7% from the July low, it has yet to break through the key resistance at $65K. Polymarket forecast data shows traders' BTC price range expectations for August concentrate between $60K and $70K, with $65K as the critical battleground for bulls and bears.
CryptoSlate data indicates BTC dominance has risen to 58.4%, reaching a near six-month high. Capital continues to flow into BTC, reflecting that when market risk appetite contracts, funds prioritize the most certain asset, while altcoins generally face pressure.
## Historical Patterns in August: How Does BTC Perform?
Historically, BTC's performance in August is neutral. Between 2017 and 2025, the average return in August is about +2%, but volatility is significantly higher than in other months. In August 2024, BTC plunged to $49K due to yen carry trade unwinding, while in August 2025, it rebounded to $73K on ETF-related positive news.
The current $64K level sits roughly in the middle of the historical August range. If the $65K resistance is broken, BTC could test $68K-$70K; if rejected, support lies at the $60K round number and $58K (July low) zones.
## On-Exchange Capital Flow: BTC Dominates, Altcoins Under Pressure
BTC dominance has climbed to 58.4%, a six-month high, with capital flowing back from altcoins to BTC. The ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to 0.028, near the yearly low, indicating ETH continues to underperform BTC.
Although expectations for ETH ETF approval are rising, the market narrative for ETH is shifting from "currency" to "infrastructure," resulting in insufficient short-term price momentum. Major altcoins like SOL and LINK are also following BTC's consolidation, lacking independent rallies.
## Summary
BTC is consolidating near $64K, with $65K as the short-term key resistance. The rising BTC dominance reflects risk-off sentiment and capital concentration in top assets. Historical August patterns are neutral, with a high probability of oscillation between $60K and $65K. Breaking above $65K requires new macro catalysts (rate cut signals, ETF approval, regulatory progress); otherwise, the consolidation pattern is unlikely to change. $XAU $XAG 1. Current Market Conditions COMEX gold surged to around $4190, with an intraday gain of nearly 1.9%; COMEX-silver showed stronger resilience, rising 2.16%; Domestically, the main Shanghai silver index surged 5.35% in a single day, the precious metals sector surged across the board, and A-share gold concept stocks surged to the daily limit in bulk. 2. The Complete Driving Logic of This Round of Surge 1. Expectations for Strait of Hormuz to open are expected to lower oil prices and ease inflationary pressure. The US, Iran, and Oman are about to finalize a 60-day temporary navigation agreement, with the market predicting that the oil shipping crisis will resolve and crude oil prices will plunge rapidly. Energy inflation risks have eased, the market has lowered the probability of further Fed rate hikes, and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen. Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset. After bond yields decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, sparking a large influx of buyers. 2. Silver has dual attributes, outperforming gold in gains. Silver possesses both safe-haven precious metal + industrial metal attributes. Market risk sentiment is rebounding, and expectations for industrial metals have improved; Moreover, silver has relatively few circulating chips, so the market elasticity after capital enters is much greater than that of gold. 3. Long-term Support: Multiple Central Banks Continue Gold Purchases The Bank of Korea resumed gold procurement after 13 years, with domestic gold ETFs seeing net inflows for several consecutive days, with underlying buying supporting the bottom space for gold prices. 4. Capital Rotation and Adjustment: US AI earnings sentiment is under pressure. SPCXs are burning huge AI funds, AMD guidance is weaker, and some funds are withdrawing from high-risk tech sectors to allocate to low-value precious metals as safe-haven assets. 3. Risks and hidden dangers, do not blindly chase the price increase. 1. Sea📊 Tonychoo｜Crypto Institutional Daily Report (2026.08.05)
📰 Today's Highlights
1️⃣ CLARITY Act Updates
Senate leader Thune did not file a motion to end debate on the CLARITY Act tonight, mainly due to procedural delays from the continuing resolution (CR), insufficient votes, and unresolved key disagreements.
Trump has yet to respond to the ethics review results, and the White House says time is tight. To hold a vote on Friday, the voting plan must be submitted by tomorrow. #CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大
2️⃣ US-Iran Developments
According to Axios, the US and Iran are about to reach a temporary agreement mediated by Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the US planning to officially announce it on Wednesday (today). #美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元
📊 Institutional ETF Fund Flows (Trading Day 2026.08.04)
$BTC ETF
🟢 Single-day net inflow: +$211.5 million
Main inflows:
BlackRock (IBIT): +$170.3 million
Fidelity (FBTC): +$19.6 million
ARKB: +$9.2 million
Bitwise (BITB): +$8.7 million
MSBT: +$3.7 million
$ETH ETF
🟢 Single-day net inflow: +$53.1 million
Main inflows:
BlackRock (ETHA): +$42.5 million
Fidelity (FETH): +$9.3 million
Bitwise (ETHW): +$1.3 million
📈 Market Sentiment
Coinbase Premium: -0.08 (negative premium narrowing)
Korean Kimchi Premium: -0.4 (slight negative premium)
Fear & Greed Index: 28 (Fear)
Altcoin Season Index: 50 (Neutral)
Network-wide RSI: 54.91 (Neutral)
💰 Positions with Sharp Increases:
HEI (OI $36.95 million, +90.37%)
GRVT (OI $25.42 million, +55.00%)
HFT (OI $13.63 million, +51.11%)
🔍 In-depth Analysis
1️⃣ Spot and Futures Demand (CryptoQuant Data)
BTC spot demand negative value is rapidly narrowing, improving significantly from -91.4443k BTC the previous day to -75.1525k BTC, indicating spot selling pressure is being quickly absorbed.
Futures demand remains positive (+44.2829k BTC), pushing total demand close to neutral.
Assessment: A shift to positive total demand will trigger a trend rally; once spot demand turns positive, an explosive surge will be triggered.
2️⃣ Structural Patterns and Key Resistance
BTC
The 1-hour chart has broken the main resistance line and turned bullish.
Short-term consolidation above 64.1k is needed to confirm the trend reversal's validity. (See Chart 3)
ETH
Upper structural resistance is at $1,918.
It remains in a consolidation phase until this line is effectively broken, after which it will enter a bullish trend. (See Chart 4)
💬 Summary in One Sentence
Geopolitical easing expectations and legislative battles intertwine; BTC spot selling pressure is rapidly absorbed, coupled with strong single-day ETF inflows, focus short-term on whether BTC can hold above 64.1k and ETH can break the 1918 resistance.
💵 Understanding fund flows is more important than price predictions 💵 In the past 24 hours, discussions about [ $ETH deflationary issuance burn mechanism] have sparked heated debates on the English timeline
#以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议
But very few people are talking about it on the Chinese timeline
This concerns the entire DeFi system based on $ETH staking yields as the fundamental rate of return
Once implemented, most protocols will collapse
This post will discuss this matter
Summary: The core of this EIP proposal is that when the staking ratio of Ethereum approaches 50%, the staking yield will drop to 0 as shown in the picture
To facilitate understanding of the core discussion, the issuance burn curve of this proposal is shown as the orange curve in video 1
That is, the issuance peaks at around 20%, and beyond 20%, the issuance curve starts to decline
This does not directly reduce issuance but burns a portion originally fully given to validators
➠ For example, if originally 100 $ETH should be issued to validators, after this proposal is implemented and a certain threshold is passed, the calculation still says 100 should be issued, but now 50 (hypothetical ratio) are burned, so validators only receive 50
This is the meaning of "issuance burn," somewhat like a retroactive tax
Currently, from both Chinese and English timelines, there are more critics than supporters of this proposal
Because implementing this proposal will affect many parties, and most impacts appear negative so far
Especially staking ecosystems like Lido, because Ethereum's native staking yield acts like a "benchmark interest rate" of a central bank in the real world on-chain
In reality, when the benchmark interest rate drops, bank deposit rates fall; similarly in Web3, various derivative yields based on native $ETH will also decline
Protocols doing native staking and restaking will be affected, even to the point of devastating blows
Those involved in lending will also be impacted due to yield reductions or related news, affecting their fundamentals
➠ Just imagine when the staking rate reaches 50% and the benchmark rate drops to 0, what yield base will these protocols have?
Correspondingly, with no yield, there will be no demand to lock funds, and all derivative liquidity plays will collapse
Currently, the conservative market size is about 28 billion, with the top 5 staking service providers holding over 90% market share (see figure 2)
Excluding Binance's custodial staking service, the other four are on-chain protocols; without $ETH yield support, what remains?
Generally, less than 10% survives
And this is the most conservative estimate; I haven't even counted the scale of derivative sectors like restaking and lending based on staking certificates
So I noticed some in the community think this is a long-term positive but short-term negative event. While there is positive long-term momentum, the short- and long-term impact on the Ethereum ecosystem is almost devastating, and the cost is too high
If Ethereum were Bitcoin, without an ecosystem value, this might be appropriate, but Ethereum is not Bitcoin; it is not a reserve asset
An ecosystem larger than its market cap has been built around Ethereum; once the base yield changes, it affects not only ETH holders but the entire DeFi system
This is why this proposal has sparked such huge controversy
Because it changes not just a parameter but the very nature of $ETH itself
So I feel the impact of this proposal on the economic model is comparable to the impact of switching from POW to POS
From an ecological perspective, this proposal ultimately raises one question: To become a stronger monetary asset, should most of the DeFi ecosystem be sacrificed? 🥇🥈 Gold and silver both rising
Gold and silver rising together + DXY weakening + crude oil plummeting = textbook-level easing resonance, the most ideal macro environment for BTC. But right now, this "soil" only grows gold, silver, and US stocks, while BTC is still stuck in a pit, dazed.
>
This is not a macro issue—it's a problem within the crypto space itself. A gold-silver ratio of 68.7 indicates the market is not panicking, and funds are willing to move toward risk assets. BTC RSI at 39 shows overselling is deep, the spring is compressed tightly enough. Waiting for a catalyst (ETF inflow/policy benefits/Nasdaq breaking new highs and overflowing), this spring won't bounce gently.
>
For now, just watch the gold-silver ratio—if it suddenly jumps to 80, run quickly; if it continues to hover between 65-75, wait for BTC to catch up What did Iran get? How much did the US concede? Understanding the "Devil in the Details" behind the Hormuz Agreement
Brothers, if all you saw was "oil prices falling below $80" and "BTC returning to 64,000," then you're no different from casual retail spectators.
What truly deserves contemplation is the agreement itself.
On August 4, the US and Iran were "close to reaching" a temporary agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's leadership completing the approval process that day. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated the agreement "might be reached on the 4th or 5th." Brent crude promptly fell below $80 for the first time since mid-July, dropping 4.5% intraday. WTI dropped over 5.5% intraday to $75.86. Bitcoin broke through $64,000.
But prices are just the surface.
The devil is in the details.
The core terms of this leaked temporary agreement are as follows:
— All ships entering the Persian Gulf must take the northern route through Iranian waters, controlled by Iran.
— All ships exiting the Persian Gulf must take the southern route through Omani waters, coordinating passage with Iran.
— A 60-day temporary arrangement, extendable.
— No transit fees charged within 60 days.
— All parties will clear mines from the central channel of the strait within 30 days.
— Aimed at restoring the US-Iran ceasefire status and restarting Iran nuclear deal negotiations.
Understand now?
Iran obtained something it never had before the war — de facto control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ships entering the Gulf must use the Iran-controlled route. Ships exiting use Omani waters but "coordinate with Iran." Iran doesn’t want full control, just control of the "entrance" — who comes in, I decide.
What was Iran’s initial demand? Full control over ships entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Now it has stepped back: entrance is mine, exit is Oman’s approval, but I retain oversight.
Is this a concession? It’s a strategic retreat to advance.
What did the US get? A short-term ceasefire. Lower oil prices. The strait reopened.
On August 3, Trump publicly said he canceled planned strikes on Iran, calling it "Iran’s last chance," and threatened "either reach an agreement or surrender completely." He also said negotiations would be in two phases: first, opening the Strait of Hormuz; second, "denuclearization."
But the problem is — the US conceded on the first phase. What about the second?
Iran got real control. The US got a promise — Iran promises "future" talks on denuclearization.
This isn’t an agreement; it’s an option. Iran sold you a call option, with the strike price being "future negotiations," and it already pocketed the premium.
Trump said Iran wouldn’t charge fees for ships passing through the strait. But the agreement states "no transit fees within 60 days" — what about after 60 days?
The agreement says after mine clearance in the central channel, permanent arrangements will be implemented as negotiated later between Oman and Iran.
"Negotiated later." Again, "negotiated later."
How many times does 60 days appear?
This is not a peace treaty. It’s a halftime agreement.
The US exchanged de facto control of the strait for 60 days of ceasefire and lower oil prices. Iran exchanged a "promise of future talks" for strategic leverage it never had before the war.
What happens after 60 days?
Trump said the second phase is "denuclearization," with the US firm that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons.
Iran says if the US does not lift port blockades and resume implementation of the 14-point memorandum of understanding, the strait will remain closed.
One side demands the other give up nuclear weapons. The other demands lifting all blockades.
The distance between these two goals is called the Persian Gulf.
Today the market is trading on the "peace dividend." BTC rose, oil prices fell, and risk assets all returned.
But how long can the dividend last?
It depends on whether this 60-day temporary arrangement is a bridge to permanent peace or the starting line for a new round of games.
Don’t mistake halftime for the final whistle.
Let the bullets fly a while.
$BTC $BZ $CL #美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元 🐕 **$DOGE Price Analysis & Update!** 📊
$DOGE (DOGE/USDT) is consolidating in a tight range, trading at **$DOGE 0.07006** with a flat **-0.02%** daily change. The chart shows a prolonged downward trend over longer timeframes (-35.05% over 90 days), but the price action is currently stabilizing near key support levels.
Here are the details from the daily (1D) chart:
* **Current Price:** $0.07006
* **24h High:** $DOGE 0.07071
* **24h Low:** $0.06963
* **Key Resistance:** $0.07110 (MA20 line) / $DOGE 0.07558 (Recent swing high)
* **Key Support:** $0.06757 (Recent low)
### 🔮 Price Prediction:
1. **Bullish Scenario (Rebound):** If buyers step in and push $DOGE above the **$0.0711** level (MA20), it could trigger a recovery bounce toward **$0.0750 - $0.0760**.
2. **Bearish Scenario (Breakdown):** If $DOGE loses the **$0.0675** support floor, it could open the door for a drop down toward **$0.0620 - $0.0650**.
The token is currently moving sideways as moving averages flatten out, signaling a potential build-up for the next directional move.
Do you think $DOGE will hold support above $0.0675 and bounce back, or will it break lower this week? #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ Everyone, SpaceX's first financial report is out, and the data itself is not bad.
Revenue reached $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, significantly higher than the market expectation of $6.9 billion. The loss per share was $0.09, better than expected. Operating loss narrowed from $970 million in the same period last year to $143 million. Starlink is indeed holding the fort; revenue growth and loss narrowing both indicate the direction is correct. However, AI-related capital expenditures exceeded expectations, with high-intensity investment continuing, and the space business has yet to achieve stable profitability.
Despite this better-than-expected financial report, the stock price turned down after hours. The issue is not with the report itself, but with tomorrow. On August 6, the first batch of restricted shares will be unlocked—911.5 million shares, accounting for 20% of the total unlockable shares, with potential selling pressure exceeding $100 billion, larger than the current public float. No matter how good the financial report looks, it can't withstand this supply shock.
Mi Ge's view is simple: SpaceX's long-term direction is sound, Starlink is making money, AI spending is narrowing, and fundamentals are improving. But the short-term stock price movement mainly depends on whether the selling pressure from the unlock can be absorbed. This unlock wave is not retail-level selling; it's institutions and early employees cashing out. Who absorbs it, how much they absorb, and the chip structure after absorption are the key factors determining the short-term direction.
In terms of strategy, do not chase the stock despite the better-than-expected report, and do not go long before the unlock is settled. Wait until the selling pressure is fully released in the next couple of days and the absorption is clear. Good companies also need good prices, especially since this company is still incurring huge losses. What do you think—can this unlock wave be absorbed? Share your judgment in the comments. $SNDK $SPCX $SKHYNIX Ethereum EIP-8363 Sparks Controversy: Lowering the Barrier or Weakening Decentralization?
The Ethereum community has recently been discussing EIP-8363.
The controversy around this proposal is not because it changes a simple Ethereum parameter, but because it touches on a long-standing issue:
Should Ethereum pursue higher participation in the future, or prioritize network security and decentralization?
This is the core dilemma faced with every major Ethereum upgrade.
The core of the EIP-8363 controversy lies in adjustments to the validator mechanism.
Currently, Ethereum uses a Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism, where users need to stake ETH to become validators and participate in network consensus.
At present, becoming an independent validator requires staking 32 ETH.
This threshold has been controversial since Ethereum transitioned to the PoS era.
Supporters argue:
The 32 ETH threshold is too high.
Ordinary users find it difficult to participate.
A large amount of ETH ends up concentrated in exchanges and staking service providers.
Lowering the threshold can allow more individuals to participate in validation, increasing the network's decentralization.
But opponents have equally clear concerns.
If the validator threshold is lowered, will a large number of small nodes enter the network?
Will the increase in validators raise network coordination costs?
Will the decrease in individual validator rewards affect participation enthusiasm?
More importantly:
One of Ethereum's biggest current advantages is security.
Any proposal that changes the staking structure must consider long-term impacts.
This has always been Ethereum's dilemma.
It aims to become a global-level financial infrastructure.
But the two most important indicators for financial infrastructure are:
Security.
Stability.
At the same time, it hopes more ordinary users can participate in the network.
These two goals are not always aligned.
Lowering the participation barrier favors decentralization.
But if it affects validator quality, it may weaken network security.
From a market perspective, such upgrade controversies also affect ETH value expectations.
Currently, Ethereum's price remains fluctuating above $1800.
In the past, the market focused more on:
ETF funds.
Layer 2 growth.
RWA development.
Stablecoin ecosystem.
But as Ethereum enters a mature stage, investors are paying more attention to underlying governance and economic models.
Because these determine whether ETH can continue to capture value in the future.
For ETH, the biggest challenge now is not technical capability.
Ethereum still has the largest developer ecosystem, numerous DeFi applications, and stablecoin liquidity.
The real question is:
Can network growth translate into ETH demand?
If the ecosystem thrives but ETH value capture is insufficient, the market will reassess its investment logic.
This is similar to other public chains.
For example, SOL attracts users through high performance.
But long-term value requires proving that on-chain activity can form a sustainable economic loop.
Ethereum needs to prove:
A balance can be maintained between decentralization, security, and commercial demand.
The controversy over EIP-8363 is essentially not a simple technical issue.
Behind it is Ethereum's future path choice:
Should it become a more open network to allow more participation?
Or maintain higher security standards to become an institutional-grade financial infrastructure?
Currently, both directions have supporters.
But whichever path is chosen, Ethereum must answer one question:
How to scale without sacrificing the network's core value.
Because for blockchain, speed can be optimized.
Costs can be reduced.
But once trust declines, recovery costs are very high.$ETH #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 Digging down with a Luoyang shovel, five meters deep in the strata, yesterday's Bitcoin positions are like the rusted bronze swords in the Western Zhou dynasty burial pits—stained with rust. Italy's largest banking group Intesa Sanpaolo, with a Q2 holdings report, has inscribed a new "oracle bone script" in crypto history: IBIT spot ETF holdings plummeted from 646,809 shares to 40,723 shares, a drop of 93.7%. This is not a portfolio adjustment; this is a comprehensive backfill of a cultural site.
Tomb raiders see the strata most clearly. BTC holdings have been crushed to dust, while BlackRock's ETH spot ETF shares surged from 116,200 to 349,600, nearly tripling the stake, like a rare archaeologist suddenly flipping the excavation from the late Shang dynasty to the Erlitou culture layer in the same historical record. This is not a simple long-short game; this is capital writing different "epitaphs" for two dynasties.
I examined the details of the rubbings in my hand: IBIT's call option positions were slashed from 2.5 million shares equivalent exposure to 18,000 shares, almost zeroed out, while put option exposure counterintuitively increased to 500,000 shares equivalent. This operation style feels very familiar—like a seasoned antique dealer tearing off the authentication certificate of a Ming dynasty blue-and-white porcelain, then turning around to label a batch of high-quality Jun kiln replicas as "Northern Song official kiln." The pit is not empty; the goods have been swapped. Trend money is being moved out of BTC's grand tomb and pumped with dry ice into ETH's underground palace to prevent oxidation.
This series of structural reversals confirms a judgment I have repeatedly excavated: bull and bear alternations all have historical rhythms, sharing the same rhyme. In every cycle, a batch of species must complete the necessary burial "from sovereign idol to tool currency." Today's IBIT position is the epitaph of the old cycle's master, whose name has been chiseled away; the tripling of ETH holdings is like the first brick laid by a new dynasty on the ruins—using staking yields as rammed earth and ETF inflows as the city tower.
Digging deeper, this money is not stagnant but flowing along arteries to other modern relics. Market interpretations of this Big Money shift almost inevitably spill over to every emerging species resonating with the crypto ecosystem, such as the US stock $XIREN. It's like discovering an undisturbed Fu Hao tomb next to the Yin ruins; the adjacent artisan workshops naturally get revalued—when institutional capital flows from the dormant BTC square cauldron to the active ETH altar, those creatures walking the tightrope between mining rigs' roar and AI computing power are the contemporary "oracle bone diviners," recording every choice in code on bone fragments.
Some ask, are institutions crazy? No, they are just the most faithful scribes in history. Fifteen years ago, Wall Street stamped AAA on subprime products; five years ago, they gilded NFT auction houses; today, they move massive chips under ETH's altar—each generation divines the future with scorched turtle shells, but no one truly understands the cracks.
The strata tell me that the collapse of a system is rarely instantaneous; its "tomb collapse" often happens when everyone still thinks it is rock solid. When Italy's largest bank cuts Bitcoin ETF holdings by 90% while nearly tripling ETH stakes, a crack extending from bottom to top has already appeared on Wall Street's wall.
I have no shovel, only a magnifying glass—the option numbers written in the corners of documents are the true bone flutes of this era, sounding the elegy of one dynasty or the festival of another civilization.
#IntesaShiftsToETH US-Iran negotiations advance, oil prices fall below $80, market begins to reprice risk assets
A significant change has recently occurred in the international market:
With positive signals from US-Iran talks, concerns about further escalation in the Middle East have eased, leading to a notable drop in international oil prices, falling below the $80 mark.
While changes in crude oil prices seem to primarily affect the energy market, the underlying impact extends to global inflation expectations, the US dollar trend, and risk asset sentiment.
For the crypto market, oil price changes are also worth attention.
Energy prices have been a key focus for the market recently.
If geopolitical conflicts escalate, the market typically worries about:
Crude oil supply disruptions.
Rising energy prices.
Renewed inflationary pressures.
The pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts being affected.
This would cause capital to flow back into safe-haven assets, putting pressure on risk assets.
Now, with US-Iran negotiations progressing, the market is starting to reduce concerns about supply risks.
The oil price decline implies the market believes future inflationary pressure from the energy side may ease.
Oil prices falling below $80 sends a positive signal for the global economy.
Lower energy costs help reduce production pressure for businesses.
Reduced consumer energy spending may also boost other consumption demands.
More importantly, if energy prices continue to fall, it could provide the Federal Reserve with more room for future policy adjustments.
The market’s focus is shifting from:
"Will inflation heat up again?"
to:
"When will the rate cut window open?"
This macro shift has a clear impact on the crypto market.
Because past crypto rallies have always been tied to improved liquidity conditions.
When the market expects:
Inflation to decline.
Interest rates to fall.
Increased US dollar liquidity.
Capital often seeks high-yield assets again.
Bitcoin remains the core asset of market attention.
Currently, BTC price is oscillating in the mid-to-late $60,000 range.
In the short term, the market is waiting for new capital catalysts.
If the macro environment continues to improve and risk appetite rises, BTC may attract renewed capital interest.
But if the Fed maintains high interest rates, the market still needs to digest the pressure.
Ethereum is currently holding steady above $1800.
The oil price decline is a relatively positive factor for risk assets like ETH.
Because Ethereum’s ecosystem—including RWA, stablecoins, and DeFi applications—requires a more active capital environment.
However, the short-term market still focuses on:
On-chain demand.
Capital inflows.
Ecosystem revenue.
Whether these factors can generate new upward momentum.
SOL, as a highly elastic asset, is more sensitive to market sentiment changes.
Over the past year, Solana has gained significant attention through its Meme ecosystem and on-chain activity.
If global risk appetite improves and capital seeks high-volatility opportunities again, SOL could become a direction for capital rotation.
But if the market re-enters risk-off mode, high-volatility assets will be more heavily impacted.
The advancement of US-Iran talks and the oil price decline essentially reflect a drop in market risk premiums.
Previously, investors worried about:
War.
Energy.
Inflation.
High interest rates.
Now the market is starting to trade on:
Growth.
Liquidity.
Risk appetite.
For the crypto market, what truly matters is not the daily rise or fall of oil prices, but whether it changes the global capital environment.
If energy prices remain stable and Federal Reserve policy pressure eases, risk assets may gain new opportunities.
But ultimately, the market will return to a core question:
Is there sustained capital inflow?
Because whether stocks, commodities, or crypto assets, long-term gains require real liquidity support. $BTC Democratic Senators Warren and Blumenthal jointly sent a letter to the SEC requesting an investigation into whether the Trump-related Meme coin crosses the securities law red line. The letter cites data: since its launch in January 2025, nearly 1 million wallets have collectively suffered an unrealized loss of about $3.81 billion, and it questions whether there are fraudulent arrangements.
More critically is the timing—The White House is currently evaluating an ethical compromise plan regarding Trump's crypto business conflicts of interest, which is seen as a key variable for whether the Clarity Act market structure bill can continue to advance. Once the regulatory narrative rises, sentiment in the Meme sector is first suppressed, and risk appetite will contract in phases.
My view: This is not simply a story about a single coin, but a signal that "political traffic coins" are entering the regulatory microscope. In the short term, don't chase the hype; first watch the regulatory stance and the legislative battles; the overall market still depends on whether BTC can hold above the pivot point.
BTC current price 64345.7 (+0.871%), 24H high 64512.9 / low 63428.8; ETH 1871.7 (+0.438%). Funding rates: BTC 0.001207%, ETH 0.002993%.
Pivot BTC R1:64628.87 S1:63406.17 | ETH R1:1884.58 S1:1850.36
$BTC #BTC $ETH #ETH #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
After reviewing $SPCX's debut earnings report, my biggest impression is that this company's revenue structure is completely different from the rocket company everyone imagines. Total revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, but breaking it down, Starlink contributed $4.291 billion, the largest share; AI business contributed $2.561 billion with the fastest year-over-year growth of 247%; the rocket launch business everyone actually thinks of only contributed $9.62 million, accounting for 12%, the smallest among the three lines. In other words, buying SpaceX now is actually buying a satellite internet plus AI computing power company disguised in aerospace clothing.
The market's reaction was also very honest: all three business segments exceeded expectations, net loss narrowed from $1 billion in the same period last year to $541 million, but after-hours stock price still once fell more than 8%, narrowing to about 5%. The reason is one: capital expenditure of $18.37 billion increased more than sixfold year-over-year, of which $15.83 billion was invested in AI, with annualized capital expenditure of $73.5 billion far exceeding analysts' expected $48.7 billion. After several weeks of tech giants' earnings season, the market's tolerance for AI capital expenditure has clearly decreased, and $SPCX this time hit the same logic. My own view is that the $93.5 billion cash reserve plus the CFO's year-end target of $100 billion annualized recurring revenue show the company still has confidence, but how the stock price moves in the short term depends on whether the market is willing to continue giving time to this story of burning money to scale, rather than whether this quarter's numbers themselves are impressive enough. $SPCX #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 On the eve of SanDisk's earnings report, HBF and storage shortages heat up, AI infrastructure competition enters a new phase
Recently, market focus has shifted to the storage industry.
SanDisk is about to release its earnings report, and discussions around HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) and tight storage supply are intensifying.
In the past, the market focused on AI, mainly on GPUs and computing power chips.
But as AI model scales continue to expand, a new question arises:
With computing power increasing, can data storage and transmission keep up?
This has brought the storage industry back into the spotlight.
The biggest change in the AI era is the rapid growth of data volume.
Traditional computing mainly relied on CPUs and ordinary storage.
But now, training large AI models requires handling massive amounts of data.
From training datasets,
to model parameters,
to data calls during inference,
all impose higher demands on storage performance.
This is why the market is starting to pay attention to new storage technologies like HBF.
Future AI competition is not just about chips.
It is a competition of the entire infrastructure system.
As one of the world's key storage manufacturers, market attention on SanDisk's earnings report is increasing.
Investors want to see not only revenue growth but whether the storage industry cycle has truly reversed.
In recent years, the storage industry has experienced significant fluctuations.
Demand decline.
Inventory adjustments.
Price pressure.
These factors led the entire industry into a downturn.
But with the growth in AI server demand, high-performance storage demand is beginning to rebound.
The market is starting to reassess the value of storage companies.
However, the storage industry also faces a practical problem:
AI demand is strong, but supply chain expansion takes time.
Building advanced storage capacity is not something that can be completed in the short term.
Wafer fabs.
Equipment investment.
Technology upgrades.
All require massive capital investment.
If AI infrastructure construction continues to accelerate, storage supply may become a new bottleneck.
This is also why recent market discussions about HBF are important.
This logic is somewhat similar to the crypto market.
In recent years, the crypto market has also evolved from concept hype to infrastructure competition.
Bitcoin price currently remains fluctuating in the mid-to-high $60,000 range.
With institutional funds entering, market focus has shifted from pure price increases to:
Whether funds continue to flow in.
Whether institutional allocation increases.
Whether long-term demand is established.
Ethereum currently operates above the $1800 level.
ETH's development logic is increasingly approaching infrastructure competition.
Stablecoins.
RWA.
DeFi.
Layer2.
These directions ultimately compete not just on technical concepts but on real usage demand.
If on-chain finance continues to expand, Ethereum's value as infrastructure will be further realized.
SOL remains a high-performance public chain with high market attention.
Over the past year, Solana has attracted many users with low fees, high throughput, and an active ecosystem.
But like the AI storage industry, the market ultimately focuses on:
Whether short-term hype can convert into long-term demand.
On the eve of SanDisk's earnings report, market discussions about HBF and storage shortages essentially reflect a trend:
AI is moving from model competition to infrastructure competition.
In the past, the market competed over who had stronger models.
Future competition may be:
Who has more computing power.
Who has more efficient data processing capabilities.
Who can provide more stable infrastructure.
This is very similar to the development logic of the crypto market.
Truly valuable long-term projects ultimately need to answer one question:
Is there real demand supporting growth.
The market will not always reward concepts.
Those that remain are the infrastructures capable of supporting the next wave of industry demand. $ETH SpaceX's first financial report exceeds expectations, but unlocking remains a key variable. How will the market reprice?
SpaceX has recently become the focus of market attention.
The first financial report outperformed market expectations, and the company's commercialization capability has been validated once again. However, at the same time, the supply pressure caused by share unlocking has become a variable that investors cannot ignore.
For SpaceX, the market's current focus is no longer "whether there is growth," but:
Whether high-speed growth can support the current valuation.
And whether the market can maintain its original expectations after a large number of shares enter circulation.
From a business perspective, SpaceX's growth logic remains very clear.
In the past, the market's imagination of SpaceX mainly came from its rocket business.
But now, what truly drives valuation growth is Starlink.
Traditional aerospace companies rely more on government orders, while SpaceX reduces launch costs through reusable rockets and simultaneously builds sustainable commercial revenue with Starlink.
These two businesses form different growth curves:
Rocket business raises industry barriers.
Starlink provides long-term cash flow.
This is why the market is willing to give SpaceX a valuation far higher than traditional aerospace companies.
The financial report exceeding expectations indicates that the market's previous judgment of SpaceX's commercialization ability may have been conservative.
Especially with the development of the Starlink business, investors see that commercial aerospace is not solely dependent on government funding.
Satellite internet is becoming new infrastructure.
In the future, whether for network coverage in remote areas or enterprise communication needs, Starlink has room for further expansion.
But the problem is also very real:
In high-growth industries, valuations always require subsequent performance verification.
Why is unlocking a key variable?
Because SpaceX has long been in a private market.
The number of circulating shares was limited.
Many investors wanted to participate, but trading opportunities were scarce.
In this case, scarcity drives up valuation.
But when more shares enter the market, the supply-demand relationship may change.
The market will revisit several questions:
Is the current valuation reasonable?
Are early investors willing to continue holding?
Can the new sell-off be absorbed by capital?
This is actually very similar to the crypto market.
Many Crypto projects go through similar stages early on:
High valuation during fundraising.
Capital chasing after launch.
Then entering token unlocking cycles.
The real test is often not at project launch, but after a large amount of tokens are released.
If the project has real demand, the new supply can be absorbed by the market.
If demand is insufficient, unlocking may become price pressure.
Currently, the crypto market is also in a phase of capital reallocation.
Bitcoin is currently trading in the mid-to-high $60,000 range, with the market waiting for new capital directions.
Spot ETFs have changed the BTC market structure, with institutional capital becoming an important support.
But in the short term, BTC is still influenced by global liquidity, Federal Reserve policies, and risk appetite.
The market now focuses not just on whether Bitcoin can rise, but whether new capital is willing to continue entering.
Ethereum is currently oscillating above $1800.
ETH faces issues somewhat similar to SpaceX:
The market recognizes long-term value but needs to see value realization.
Stablecoins.
RWA.
DeFi.
Layer2.
Whether these directions can generate sustained demand will determine Ethereum's future competitiveness.
SOL is currently maintaining above $70.
Solana attracted a lot of capital over the past year through on-chain activity and Meme ecosystem.
But the biggest challenge for high-growth assets is how to prove that short-term hype can convert into long-term value.
This is similar to the problem SpaceX faces:
Growth stories are important.
But ultimately, commercial results need to support them.
SpaceX's first financial report exceeding expectations shows that the company's growth logic is temporarily recognized by the market.
But unlocking will become the real stress test in the next phase.
The market will gradually shift from "believing in the future" to "verifying the future."
Whether it is SpaceX or popular assets in the crypto market, what ultimately determines long-term value is not how high the valuation is.
But whether it can continuously create real demand.
In the future, the market will not only reward the fastest-growing companies.
It will reward those that can turn growth into cash flow. #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 $BTC #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
SanDisk's earnings report tonight, I think the risk of "all good news priced in" outweighs the surprise.
Although everyone is hyping the concepts of HBF and storage shortages, I am more worried that expectations are too high.
Look at the current flood of news about tight DRAM and HBM supply; even the CEO of SK Hynix says 2027 will be the tightest.
This kind of industry-wide frenzy often means the stock price has already priced in future good news in advance.
I've experienced this many times: before earnings, all kinds of hype blow things up, but when the report comes out slightly below expectations, the stock price plunges.
SanDisk is pushing to standardize HBF this time, trying to create a new solution between HBM and SSD, which sounds very attractive.
But from the release of new technology to actually contributing profits is a long, long way.
The market now is looking at whether current performance can support such a high valuation, not just promises.
Bulls think AI storage long-term contracts can support a revaluation, which makes sense, but it's too idealistic.
Bears worry that "good news being realized" is a more realistic scenario.
Especially with TrendForce predicting NAND supply constraints will continue until 2027, this actually makes me cautious.
If supply remains tight for the next two years, hasn't the current price already risen too much?
After hours tonight, if the performance is just "in line with expectations" without a big beat, I bet there will be a wave of selling.
After all, at high levels, capital is most sensitive and will rush out at the slightest sign of trouble.
So my advice is to stay out and watch for now, don't gamble on the earnings moment's ups and downs; the risk-reward ratio isn't worth it. Brent crude oil has fallen below $80.
WTI crude oil futures settlement price dropped 5.69%, closing at $75.77 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures settlement price dropped 5.26%, closing at $79.36 per barrel. WTI intraday once fell below $75, hitting a new low since January this year.
$80, the level where everyone was shouting "breaking $100 is just a matter of time" a month ago, has just been broken.
And then? The three major US stock indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq up 2.59%, and both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hitting record highs. Bitcoin remains steady above $64,000.
Oil prices fell, risk assets rose. This chain is connected.
Let me break down this transmission chain for you:
Strait of Hormuz reopens → Crude oil supply resumes → Oil prices plunge → Inflation pressure eases → Fed rate hike expectations cool down → Risk asset valuations recover
It's that simple. But this simple chain determines whether your account is in the red or green.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US and Iran "may reach an agreement today or tomorrow" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ agreed to increase production for the sixth consecutive month in September. The double supply-side benefits directly pushed this "war premium" to rock-bottom prices.
The oil price plunge eased inflation concerns and suppressed market expectations of more than one Fed rate hike this year. The 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen for two consecutive days. Funds are flowing from safe-haven assets to risk assets—
SK Hynix up 8%, Micron up 7.6%, SanDisk up 10.8%, Nvidia up over 2%.
Got it? Oil price is the "master switch" of this rebound.
But don’t celebrate too early.
What drives this round of oil price decline? It’s "expectations," not "facts."
The agreement hasn’t been signed yet. Iran denies direct talks with the US, insisting the only ongoing consultation is with Oman regarding strait passage arrangements. Rubio said talks "have made progress but are not complete." Qatar said a draft agreement is circulating but no final text has been formed.
Yellen said "it could be reached today"—but Iran said "I haven’t talked to you."
Who do you believe?
If the agreement is only a "temporary 60-day mechanism" rather than a permanent solution, and if the deal falls through in the next couple of days, oil prices may rebound after the sharp drop. Then this US stock rally and BTC rise would be a false breakout.
For the crypto world, the real make-or-break point is here:
If oil prices stay below $80, Q3 CPI data will significantly decline, and the probability of Fed rate hikes in 2026 will decrease—this is the biggest macro-level positive.
But if the oil price drop is just a flash in the pan, rate hike expectations will rise again, and risk assets will be crushed once more.
Don’t just watch BTC’s candlestick charts; keep a close eye on news flow about the Strait of Hormuz.
In the coming weeks, oil price will be the true "macro commander" for the crypto world.
If the agreement is signed, oil prices continue to fall, BTC keeps rising. If the agreement fails, oil prices violently rebound, and BTC gets smashed along with it.
It’s that simple. It’s that brutal.
$BTC $BZ $CL #美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元