Orbit Post Sitemap

The US stock earnings season is volatile, and the crypto market is now solely driven by ETF redemption data. Tonight's highlight in the US stock market is SanDisk's after-hours earnings report, with everyone closely watching the gross margin and the flash memory price guidance for the second half of the year. Recently, the US stock market has been prone to sharp fluctuations due to earnings data; AMD fell 7% pre-market due to disappointing results, while Nvidia rose against the trend supported by positive news. However, such positive or negative news about chip stocks no longer significantly influences Bitcoin price fluctuations. Now, the correlation between stocks and crypto has dropped to its lowest level in years, and the driving factors for these two asset classes have completely separated. US stock trends are tied to corporate performance, AI industry supply and demand, and US Treasury yield fluctuations. Cryptocurrency price movements depend solely on spot ETF capital flows, contract long-short battles, and overseas regulatory developments. Going forward, is it still necessary to closely monitor US stock chip earnings reports every day when trading Bitcoin? $ETH $BTC The three major U.S. stock indexes all hit record highs, but the cryptocurrency market did not follow suit, showing a clear divergence in trends. #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 1. Market Status: A Tale of Two Extremes As of August 5, the S&P 500 rose 1.79% to close at 7736.52 points, and the Dow Jones rose 1.71% to close at 54085.88 points, both setting record closing highs. The Nasdaq surged 2.59%, with AI concept stocks being favored. However, Bitcoin only hovered around $64,000 with a daily increase of less than 1%, basically flat over the past week. Ethereum fell to $1,864, down about 2% for the week, making it the weakest performer among major coins. The crypto market has failed to follow the risk assets higher for the third consecutive trading day. 2. Why Are U.S. Stocks Rising While Crypto Is Not? 1. Funds Are Being Siphoned Off by AI Tech Stocks The current market theme is AI trading, with funds concentrated in AI concept stocks like Nvidia and SK Hynix. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive months, with redemptions exceeding $4 billion in June alone. The crypto community has even witnessed the liquidation of the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. 2. Macro Tailwinds Are Failing Falling oil prices have eased inflation concerns and weakened rate hike expectations, theoretically benefiting all risk assets. But market participants note that these factors have failed to lift Bitcoin for three consecutive trading days. The market weakness is no longer due to macro factors but rather insufficient internal demand within the crypto market. 3. Internal Capital Rotation Rather Than Overall Inflows BNB rose 5% over the week, performing best, while ETH, XRP, and DOGE all declined. This mixed performance indicates that funds are rotating within crypto assets rather than flowing in overall. 3. A Variable Worth Watching On August 4, the Bitcoin spot ETF recorded net inflows for the second consecutive day, with BlackRock and Fidelity leading a $211.5 million return. This reversed the multi-day net outflow trend in July. Whether this signals a trend reversal remains to be seen; short-term inflows do not necessarily establish a long-term trend. Summary The rise in U.S. stocks is not directly bearish for the crypto market, but current funds favor AI tech stocks more. The crypto market lacks independent catalysts and is unlikely to attract new capital in the short term. If Bitcoin fails to rebound after the Hormuz Strait agreement is implemented, it will further prove that the buying focus has shifted away from cryptocurrencies. The storage sector's single-day trading volume surpassed 20.6 billion, with institutional funds completely unwilling to flow into the crypto space Yesterday, SanDisk's single-day trading volume reached 20.64 billion USD, with a large number of hedge funds and asset management institutions positioning themselves for tonight's quarterly earnings report. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6.5% recently, and the average gain of optical communication stocks exceeded 12%, fully igniting the profit-making effect in the AI hardware sector. However, the crypto market shows no sign of fresh capital inflow; the Ethereum ETF saw a single-day outflow of 12.3 million USD, and long-term capital is gradually withdrawing from crypto assets. In a high-interest-rate environment, holding interest-free Bitcoin entails a very high opportunity cost. Institutions prefer storage chip stocks supported by revenue, earnings reports, and spot price increases, rather than betting on digital currencies with unclear policy directions. As long as the regulatory framework is not officially implemented, the crypto space will find it difficult to capture the main funds from the US stock hardware sector.This week's earnings season has sent a very clear signal: beating expectations is just passing, only raising guidance carries a premium. AMD's results were good, yet its stock price still fell; PLTR, Arista, and Shopify all delivered strong earnings and strong guidance, which earned investor confidence. The index is strong, but individual stocks have started to diverge. The real factors affecting the Nasdaq next are mainly three things. Tonight, watch SanDisk. The market expects SanDisk's EPS to be about $33 to $34, already above the company's previous guidance of $30 to $33. NAND price increases, AI data center demand, and enterprise SSD growth have basically been priced in. The focus tonight is not whether earnings beat expectations, but whether next quarter's guidance can continue to be raised. If both earnings and guidance are strong, capital may continue to flow to Micron MU and the entire storage chain; if just meeting expectations, SanDisk might replicate AMD's trend—fundamentals are fine, but the stock price will first realize profits. Thursday, watch Cloudflare. Cloudflare is an important sample for observing AI software sentiment. The market expects its quarterly revenue to be about $664 million to $665 million. NET has risen significantly recently, and its valuation is not cheap. Simply beating expectations may not be enough; full-year guidance must keep pace. If Cloudflare also shows "good earnings, average guidance," high-valuation software stocks will continue to be under pressure. Friday, watch employment data. The market expects about 80,000 new jobs in the US in July, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Moderate cooling in employment is most favorable for the Nasdaq. Overheated data will raise interest rate expectations and suppress tech stock valuations; a sudden sharp weakening could trigger recession fears. My judgment is that the Nasdaq is more likely to maintain high-level volatility this week, overall leaning strong, but individual stock divergence will continue to widen. The current US stock market is no longer a broad rally; those who can raise guidance will continue to rise, while those who only meet expectations will start to fall behind. These are the major events this week that will affect the Nasdaq's trend. In short, it will sprint at a high level, with risks outweighing rewards, mainly favoring shorting at highs, got it!! #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $ETH $SNDK $BTC The Nasdaq keeps hitting new highs, so why is $BTC stuck oscillating around $64,000? Currently, the US stock market is very hot, with the Nasdaq continuously surging, holding steady at 26,690 points during the session, maintaining a daily gain of 0.4%. The storage sector is especially heated, with SanDisk awaiting its evening earnings report. The market estimates its quarterly revenue will exceed $8.395 billion. In contrast, Bitcoin's daily volatility is only 0.4%. Despite the tech stocks in the US market surging and pulling back repeatedly, Bitcoin stubbornly refuses to break out of its range. The core reason is the diversion of institutional funds. Wall Street capital is betting on the price hike dividends of AI storage hardware. Flash memory spot prices have risen 10% month-over-month, and orders are already booked through 2027. However, the crypto sector has been weighed down by the unresolved US crypto regulatory bills, with Ethereum ETFs continuously seeing capital outflows. When all risk capital is concentrated in the more certain US stock market sector, when will the crypto space be able to welcome incremental off-exchange buying?US July ADP employment increased by only 44,000, below the market expectation of 70,000; but Kashkari later said that small rate hikes should start now. On one hand, employment is cooling down, while on the other, Fed officials continue to suppress inflation. The market finds it difficult to trade solely based on "poor data = rate cuts." I am cautiously bearish on BTC in the short term. Weak employment can support risk assets, but as long as US Treasury yields and the dollar do not fall back, the rebound potential is easily suppressed. The US stock market has been experiencing large fluctuations and rallies back and forth, so why can't the crypto market keep up with the trend anymore? Recently, many people have noticed some very unusual market phenomena. The Nasdaq keeps hitting new all-time highs, with storage and AI computing power stocks experiencing daily price swings of around 10%, making US stock trading extremely active. However, Bitcoin only oscillates within a narrow range daily, with 24-hour volatility often less than 1%. Regardless of whether the US stock market surges or plunges, it remains unaffected. The primary reason is a severe diversion of funds. Currently, Wall Street institutional funds are confident in the AI hardware dividend, with stocks like SanDisk and Nvidia supported solidly by flash memory price increases, server orders, and quarterly earnings. In contrast, Bitcoin spot ETFs have long been in a net outflow of funds; institutions redeem and exit at every small rebound, and incremental external liquidity basically does not flow into the crypto market. The second point is the huge gap in their underlying fundamentals. US tech stocks generate revenue and profits, with their market driven by industry cycles. Cryptocurrencies have no cash flow income; their price fluctuations are only influenced by US crypto regulatory developments and contract fund speculation, with many independent influencing factors. The third point is that the risk attributes of the two asset types have been completely separated. In earlier years, Bitcoin was a highly volatile risk asset that followed the Nasdaq up and down. Now, the 30-day correlation coefficient has dropped to its lowest point in years, and the stock-crypto linkage structure has broken down. As long as regulatory uncertainties remain unresolved, institutions will prioritize the more certain US stock market track. 360 million USD versus negative 11 million USD. This is the stark contrast between the performance of the Ethereum spot ETF throughout July and the single-day flow on August 3rd. Yesterday in the group chat, a member who recently started trading Ethereum asked me: Boss, Ethereum ETF net inflow was 360 million in July, with such strong buying pressure that it even surpassed the neighboring Bitcoin ETF at one point. So why did the price remain sluggish around 1870 USD? And why did the fund flow suddenly reverse to outflows in August? Are institutions deliberately cooperating with the main players to shake out weak hands? Looking at the string of question marks he sent, I replied directly: Institutions are not shaking out weak hands; they are arbitraging and distributing dividends, and you just happened to be on the opposite side of their trades. The July data looks prosperous, but if you break it down carefully, BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH are indeed buying, but most of the incremental buying is just hedging the continuous outflows from Grayscale’s ETHE. By August 3rd, when this dynamic balance of inflows and outflows was broken, net outflows naturally appeared. More importantly, Grayscale is recently planning an operation that almost no retail investors have noticed. According to their latest disclosed announcement, Grayscale’s Ethereum Staking Trust plans to distribute the net staking income cash dividends generated by the trust to shareholders around August 7th. Many retail investors think, isn’t staking dividend payout good news? I find this logic laughable and frustrating. For Grayscale to distribute cash dividends, the premise is that they must sell all the accumulated Ethereum staking interest in the trust account on the spot market for USD cash before distributing it to shareholders. On-chain, this means real Ethereum spot must be converted into USD and sold off. The August 7th delivery date happens to fall at the most fragile point of market sentiment. When I saw the ETF record a net inflow of over 300 million USD in July, I also got caught up in the hype and went long Ethereum at 1930 USD, thinking the institutional era had arrived and ETH would surely replicate Bitcoin’s early trajectory. But just after August began, ETHE outflows continued daily, and combined with the pressure from dividend sell-offs, my long position was forcibly liquidated at 1870 USD, losing 2000 USD. This loss completely woke me up: don’t use retail investors’ “buy in a bull market” mindset to judge institutional derivatives actions. In the eyes of institutions, Ethereum is just an interest-bearing asset arbitrage tool. They channel funds through ETFs, then convert spot into USD during arbitrage and dividend distribution to exit. This mechanism creates sustained pressure on the secondary market spot that cannot be absorbed by daily inflows of just tens of millions. Here’s a question for you: facing Grayscale’s first staking dividend payout on August 7th, do you think BlackRock’s net inflow of 53 million USD on August 4th can perfectly absorb this wave of cash selling pressure, or is this just another carefully prepared on-chain liquidation gift for all the bulls by Grayscale? #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 U.S. stocks are all rising, but BTC still hasn't caught up — that's the most awkward part. Yesterday, U.S. stocks clearly entered a risk-on mode, with small-cap stocks rising nearly 2%, and tech stocks also rebounding. But BTC only rose less than 1%, still hovering around $64,000; ETH performed even weaker. Traditional risk assets have already started to run ahead, while the crypto market seems like it hasn't woken up. I'm increasingly feeling that what BTC really lacks is no longer a "better environment." It's a lack of funds willing to actively chase the highs. Macro sentiment is improving, ETFs and institutional demand exist, but retail interest remains very weak. The current funds seem more like they're supporting the price from below rather than driving the market upward. This is also my biggest concern: When bad news appears, BTC falls along; when U.S. stocks rise, BTC can't keep up. If even a warming risk appetite can't move it, then $64,000 might not be a consolidation zone, but just a temporary stalemate between buyers and sellers. I might be too pessimistic, but if you ask me to chase now, I wouldn't. If U.S. stocks continue to rise, do you think BTC will catch up or keep falling behind? $BTC #Bitcoin #USStocks #CryptoMarket Gold surges 3.17%, oil prices recover, why are US stocks and cryptocurrencies diverging after the open? Pre-market commodity trading is lively, spot gold surged 3.17% breaking through $4206, Brent crude oil rose 1.4% stabilizing above the $80 mark. Usually, when precious metals and crude oil fluctuate sharply, Bitcoin would also experience significant volatility. But recently, the market has completely changed; BTC only rose slightly by 0.4%, with almost no volatility. US stocks benefit from rate cut expectations, tech heavyweight stocks strengthened pre-market, with capital betting on AI hardware's long-term profit dividends. The crypto market is stuck due to unresolved US crypto regulations, and institutional funds are reluctant to take risks in digital currencies. As risk assets, why can the positive sentiment in commodities only be transmitted to US stocks?The storage sector collectively pulled back before the market opened. Will SanDisk initiate a bull trap and shakeout after the opening? Yesterday, SanDisk surged 10.84% in a single day, with total trading volume exceeding $20.6 billion. A large amount of short-term profit-taking chips have already been accumulated. This morning before the market opened, Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk all declined simultaneously, as funds began to perform shakeout actions ahead of earnings releases. According to historical data, after SanDisk's earnings release, the stock price has a 70% chance to rise and 30% chance to fall, but after a big rally, it is easy to see profit-taking sell-offs. Currently, the NAND flash supply-demand gap is expected to continue until 2027, and the industry's fundamentals have no issues; it's just that short-term chips need to be cleared. US stock funds are repeatedly trading storage chip chips, while the crypto market still only has existing players competing with each other, and ETF redemption pressure has yet to ease. If the storage sector experiences a deep shakeout at the opening, could it indirectly weaken sentiment in the crypto space? $SPCX plunged 11% pre-market, and today's $SNDK opening signals a divergence in tech stock trends. On the eve of the U.S. East Coast market open, SpaceX dropped over 11%, with a hefty $18.4 billion capital expenditure in Q2 scaring off many short-term traders. $AMD's earnings missed expectations, falling more than 7% pre-market, causing a clear split within the chip sector. Fortunately, Nvidia and Apple steadily rose pre-market, with the AI computing leader holding firm against the sector's negative sentiment. ADP reported only 44,000 new jobs, below the expected 65,000, but rate cut expectations still support the U.S. stock market's baseline. Now, market funds are selectively positioning in quality stocks, abandoning companies with high losses and massive investments. Bitcoin's price action remains completely unaffected by individual U.S. stock negatives, with narrow fluctuations becoming the recent norm; the decoupling of stocks and crypto has become a settled fact. Market sentiment is quite sensitive, with $BTC fluctuating repeatedly around $63,000. ETF fund flows over the past week have been mixed, and legislative momentum is cooling down. The CLARITY Act has no scheduled floor vote today, and it is basically unlikely to pass before the Senate recess. This delay keeps institutional trading desks cautious, and liquidity is thinner than what is typical for this stage of the cycle. Hardware wallet security issues have come back into focus, with another withdrawal incident related to Coldcard. The network itself remains stable, but large BTC movements under pressure make it difficult to boost market risk appetite. On the other hand, DEX spot trading volume in July just hit a record high, which is a quiet but important signal: funds are circulating on-chain rather than passively waiting in traditional channels. My view is that the current phase resembles a typical mid-cycle digestion period. $ETH, $SOL, and $BNB remain relatively strong, while $XRP and $ADA continue to show selective buying in response to regulatory news. $DOGE, $AVAX, and $LINK closely follow overall risk sentiment. Looking further ahead, $DOT, $UNI, $ATOM, $LTC, and $NEAR remain highly sensitive to changes in liquidity conditions and interest rate expectations. Until the legislative situation becomes clearer or ETF fund flows turn decisively positive, the market is expected to remain range-bound, with sharp short-term reactions likely around data releases or token unlocks. Stay clear-headed. The next catalyst is already marked on the calendar, and when the market truly decides to act, it usually doesn’t give much advance warning. Let's talk about Big Brother Maji's trading, faith and cost under the bull and bear markets in the crypto world Many people in the crypto space always study various indicators and short-term trading techniques. After seeing Big Brother Maji's operations, one will have a deep impression. His most distinctive feature is his stubborn endurance. Once he determines the big direction and builds his position, even if the market plunges, panic spreads, and all kinds of negative news fly around, he won't be shaken out by short-term volatility. Facing huge unrealized losses, he doesn't cut losses easily, doesn't let intraday price swings affect his emotions, and patiently waits for a full bull and bear cycle to realize profits. To be honest, this kind of composure is something most traders lack. Ordinary traders collapse mentally with just a slight pullback, panic sell, and hand over chips at the bottom. The willpower to endure long-term unrealized losses, ignore market noise, and hold positions is admirable. But admiration aside, never simply copy this model directly. Stubborn endurance does not mean blindly holding on. For this strategy to work, several hard conditions must be met. First, you need sufficient capital to withstand prolonged bear market unrealized losses and not be forced to exit at low prices due to real financial pressure. Second, the underlying asset must have a survival logic; if the asset itself has problems, stubbornly holding on is not perseverance but sinking deeper into losses. Third, an extraordinary mindset is required; the bear market is endless, with bearish voices everywhere, and you must resist the market's emotional contagion. The crypto market itself is a cycle of alternating bull and bear markets. Bull markets bring euphoria, bear markets wear you down. Big Brother Maji is actually trading by leveraging cycles: positioning during bear markets, enduring the trough, and waiting for the bull market wave to lift the value of holdings. He earns the money of large-cycle beta, not frequent short-term price differences. At the same time, we must see the other side: this model has a huge cost. The time cost is extremely high; most of the time the account is in unrealized loss, and profits are concentrated in a very short period during the bull market. Once extreme market conditions occur, even if the big direction is correct, the drawdowns during the process can still cause devastating damage. Faith is precious, but faith cannot replace risk control. He can do this because he has his own conditions to support it. We can learn from whale operations, mindset, and cycle thinking, but we must not ignore the risks behind it Where does the US cryptocurrency bill (CLARITY Act) stand? 1. What is the bill? The CLARITY Act (full name: Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) aims to establish the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for the US crypto industry. The core contents include: · Three-category regulation: sufficiently decentralized assets like BTC, ETH, SOL are classified as commodities under CFTC jurisdiction; tokens issued early as investment contracts are classified as securities under SEC regulation; stablecoins are jointly regulated by the SEC, CFTC, and banking authorities · Ethics clause: prohibits the President, Vice President, and certain members of Congress from issuing or promoting digital assets before January 2029 · Stablecoin rules: prohibits paying rewards similar to bank deposits on idle stablecoin balances 2. What is the legislative progress? ✅ Completed: · July 2025: Passed the House of Representatives with 294 votes in favor and 134 against · May 14, 2026: Passed the Senate Banking Committee with 15 votes in favor and 9 against ⏳ Currently stuck at: Full Senate vote Since being added to the Senate legislative agenda on June 1, the bill has not entered the full voting process. It was not included in the Senate agenda announced on August 3. The Senate will recess on August 10 and reconvene on September 14. 3. Probability of passage: plummeted from 75% to 13% · Mid-May: about 75% · August 3: Polymarket dropped to 31% · August 4: Galaxy Research lowered to 30% · August 5: Polymarket hit a historic low of 13% 4. What is blocking it? 1. Ethics clause — Trump's $1.4 billion controversy More than a year into Trump's second term, he has earned $1.4 billion from crypto business (TRUMP coin contributed $635 million). The ethics clause in the bill directly restricts the President from issuing or promoting digital assets, turning Trump from the "strongest promoter" into the "biggest obstacle." The White House has not yet formally responded to the revised ethics proposal. 2. Banking industry opposes stablecoin yield clause Banks worry that crypto companies offering stablecoin yields to customers will compete with bank deposits. 3. Bipartisan struggle Republicans accuse Democrats of delaying review for political reasons; Democrats demand further amendments to some clauses. The bill needs at least 60 votes out of 100 senators to overcome filibuster. 5. Three possible follow-ups ① Miracle passage this week: extremely low probability. The Senate must complete voting before recess on August 10, with almost no time left. ② Delay until September or year-end: Bitwise CIO believes the bill may enter a "zombie" state or be bundled into a "comprehensive bill" passed after the September session or even in December. ③ Complete failure, regulatory path: if the bill fails, the SEC and CFTC will launch "Project Crypto," accelerating rulemaking to advance token classification, DeFi regulatory framework, etc. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce clearly stated, "Whether the bill passes or not, the SEC will strive to move forward." 6. Summary The CLARITY Act once had bipartisan support in the House and Senate committees but is stuck before the full Senate vote. The ethics clause controversy, banking opposition, and bipartisan struggle are three major obstacles, causing the passage probability to plummet from 75% to 13%. If procedural voting can start before the August 10 recess, it will at least leave room for action after the September session; if there is no progress this week, the 2026 legislative window will basically close, and the industry can only turn to administrative regulation by the SEC and CFTC. Consumer flash memory demand is sluggish; tonight's earnings report proves $SNDK only benefits from the AI computing power dividend Currently, the flash memory consumer market for phones and PCs remains weak, and terminal manufacturers are not increasing their inventory. SanDisk's recent performance surge is entirely driven by the rigid demand for data center and AI inference cache. The enterprise SSD business has now become the company's core revenue pillar, with its market share rapidly expanding. In tonight's management conference call, pay close attention to the follow-up plans for the AI storage business. Storage chips are entering an independent AI super cycle, no longer constrained by traditional consumer electronics cycles. When the hardware sector only serves the AI industry dividend, what advantages does the crypto space still have to compete for risk capital? $SNDK Past Earnings Reports Show a 75% Chance of Closing Higher; Can the Earnings Momentum Continue Tonight? According to earnings data from the past four fiscal years, SanDisk's stock price has a 75% chance of rising after earnings release, with an average volatility of ±8.75% and a maximum surge of 15.3%. In the last trading session, SanDisk already surged 10.84% in advance, with many short-term profit-taking shares waiting for positive news to sell. The Q4 non-GAAP earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $30–33, compared to only $0.29 in the same period last year, marking an epic profit surge. Long-term supply agreements with major AI companies have locked in flash memory capacity for years to come, leaving almost no fundamental risks. US storage stocks are rising based on solid order data, while the crypto market can only rely on ETF fund flows to determine price movements. SanDisk throws down two trump cards on the eve of its earnings report: HBF standard implementation + storage shortage until 2027 — Lao Mo tells you which numbers to watch tonight Brothers, SanDisk will release its earnings report after the market closes tonight, but before the report, the company has already played two cards. First card: The HBF standard is officially implemented. On August 4, SanDisk and SK Hynix released the world's first HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) standard specification through OCP (Open Compute Project). What is HBF? Simply put, it’s a new species stuck between HBM and SSD. HBM is fast but expensive with small capacity, SSD is cheap but slow, and HBF combines the advantages of both — using stacked NAND flash, supporting up to 512GB capacity, with bandwidth divided into three levels from 0.4TB/s to 3.0TB/s. It adopts the industry-standard UCIe interconnect, allowing easy pairing with GPUs and CPUs. Google and Tenstorrent have already joined the HBF alliance. Professor Kim Jung-ho, known as the "father of HBM," predicts that by 2038, HBF demand may surpass HBM. A market potentially bigger than HBM, and SanDisk has already secured a good position. SanDisk’s own timeline: provide the first batch of HBF samples to customers by the end of this year, and launch the first batch of AI inference devices equipped with HBF samples in early 2027. Second card: Storage shortage until 2027, production capacity already fully booked. Industry news says the three major manufacturers have completed capacity allocation negotiations for the entire year of 2027 — DRAM and HBM capacities are fully sold out. NAND Flash is not as tight as DRAM, but capacity before the end of August 2026 is basically fully booked. Regardless of whether long-term contracts are signed, buyers have accepted the prepayment deposit model. CICC has raised its global NAND demand forecast for 2026 and 2027 to 1381EB and 1703EB, higher than the supply forecasts of 1317EB and 1633EB for the same periods. 2027 may be "the year of the greatest storage shortage." SanDisk has already signed 5 long-term supply agreements, 3 of which total $42 billion in value. Some agreements extend beyond 2030. Future revenues for the next few years are locked in — this is why Goldman Sachs dared to raise the target price directly from $1200 to $2200. Bernstein’s target price is $3000, and Bank of America’s is $2500. Back to the earnings report itself. After the market closes tonight, SanDisk will release its Q4 fiscal 2026 results. The company’s official guidance is revenue between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion. But Wall Street expectations have already reached $8.39 billion or even $8.71 billion. Q3 gross margin was 78.4%, and the market expects Q4 to hit 80% or even 81%. Goldman Sachs judges that the Stargate high-capacity enterprise SSD product line will recognize revenue for the first time in Q4 — zero in Q3, from zero to some in Q4. This is pure incremental revenue. But Lao Mo has to remind you: expectations are already very full. Revenue up 341% year-over-year, net profit up 229 times — the market has known these numbers for a long time. If the earnings report only "meets expectations" instead of "significantly exceeding expectations," the stock price may move in the opposite direction. The options market’s expected earnings day volatility is ±14.9%. Implied volatility is 136.59%, at the 93rd percentile. After tonight, SanDisk will either soar or crash. Lao Mo’s trading advice. For those with positions: reduce half your holdings around 1430-1460, keep half to bet on the earnings. When expectations are so full, taking profits is never wrong. Or move your stop loss up to 1380-1400, and exit if it breaks below. For those wanting to chase: wait for a pullback to 1400-1420 to stabilize before acting, with a stop loss below 1370. Or just wait for the earnings report to land — if it beats expectations and gaps up, you can still chase; if it misses and crashes, you avoid a disaster. Don’t bet on the earnings, just bet on the trend. Lao Mo’s final words: HBF standard implementation + storage shortage until 2027, the mid-to-long-term logic is intact. But tonight’s earnings report is the biggest short-term variable. Control your hands, manage your positions, set stop losses — more important than betting on direction. Are you betting long or short on SanDisk’s earnings? Let’s discuss in the comments. If you think Lao Mo’s analysis is clear, give a like and follow. I’ll alert you as soon as the earnings results come out. #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 $BTC $ETH $SNDK BTC acts like a magnet, drawing all the remaining attention from the market. Have you noticed that when you open the market software recently, many knockoffs don't even want to look at them anymore? My real feeling these past few days is that the market is quietly layering, and it's even more thorough than I imagined. It's not the usual "mixed price movements," but rather money flowing only in a few places, with the remaining coins as if they've been muted. Let me start with the signals I observed. BTC continues to serve as a liquidity anchor, ETH is used by institutional funds as a base for allocation, and SOL maintains the most vibrant growth line among L1s. Familiar faces like BNB, XRP, TRX, and DOGE have shown resilience amid volatility. On the other hand, projects like SUI, TON, CORE, AI, and GRASS have high volatility and great potential, making them suitable for those who can hold positions. But what deserves more attention are those still declining — LIT, PROVE, BLUR, PENGU, AR, FIL — they have no stories, but capital temporarily does not want to hear them. What is the market trading? I think it's a 'certainty premium.' When overall risk appetite contracts, funds are more willing to pay for understandable narratives, deep market orders, and liquidity that can carry large capital. Those coins still struggling at the bottom are not necessarily fundamentally weak, but rather that they do not belong to them at this stage. Stocks like HYPE, ZEC, ONDO, ORDI, PI, and AEVO—which have been repeatedly discussed—can become a burden if sentiment weakens. Me The market has long been institutionalized; stop being led by breaking news! The real secrets of price rises and falls lie in position data. Nowadays, the crypto market is flourishing with ETFs, corporate holdings, bank custody, and RWA tokenization, with deep institutional capital entry, seemingly becoming more regulated. However, the vast majority of retail investors still focus on various sudden news to chase gains or cut losses. Foreign media sharply point out: news only temporarily disturbs the market; the underlying capital position structure always determines the medium- to long-term trend. 1. Current situation: Institutions entering, yet the market is still easily misled by short-term news The industry has accelerated integration with traditional finance in recent years: spot ETFs operate routinely, listed companies allocate BTC treasury, compliant custody, stablecoin ecosystems, and full implementation of physical asset tokenization, with institutional participants continuously increasing. Logically, as market maturity improves, the market should be more stable and rational, but the reality is the opposite: a policy rumor, institutional sell-off announcement, or security vulnerability news can still quickly cause sharp short-term fluctuations. The fundamental reason: 24/7 continuous trading has strong reflexivity; news quickly triggers leveraged funds to follow buy or sell; with institutions, quant funds, and retail investors overlapping, rumors can easily set short-term prices, but news only affects impulse moves, while capital positions determine the major trend. 2. Two classic cases to understand the illusion of news and the divergence from real capital Case 1: Large outflows from BTC ETFs, but long-term whales buy against the trend BTC spot ETFs once recorded the largest net outflow in a single month, with news everywhere painting "institutions collectively fleeing, bearish outlook," spreading panic. But on-chain data clearly showed long-term holders continuously accumulating at low prices during the price drop. Retail investors saw endless selling pressure in the news; digging into position data reveals short-term redemptions were just institutional capital reallocations, while smart long-term capital quietly accumulated chips during the decline. Two perspectives lead to completely opposite judgments. Case 2: Strategy’s BTC sell-off overinterpreted by the market Early on, Strategy’s first small sale of 32 BTC was directly interpreted by the market as a bearish signal and market top, triggering panic selling. Only after the company’s larger-scale sell-offs did the market rationally realize the essence: sales were routine treasury operations for cash flow management and dividend share buybacks, not a full bearish exit from Bitcoin. Most people panicked focusing only on the announcement headline, ignoring the company’s core long-term large-scale investment logic, misled by fragmented news. 3. Derivatives leading signals: funding rates often reflect sentiment ahead of coin prices Perpetual contract funding rates are highly valuable leading indicators: Previously, BTC’s overall funding rate stayed negative for a long time, with market news portraying strong bears and a bearish market. But detailed data shows that among the top 50 mainstream contracts, more than half of the coins’ funding rates quietly shifted from negative to positive. This means on-exchange short positions are quietly exiting, risk appetite is slowly recovering, and market sentiment repair precedes price rallies. While the whole network is still immersed in bearish panic, underlying leveraged funds’ attitudes have quietly changed. Simple logic to understand funding rates - Negative rate: shorts pay longs interest, indicating heavy short positions; - Positive rate: longs pay premium, showing increased willingness to go long; Price changes alone lag; funding rate changes can sense shifts in long-short power earlier. 4. Future core trading ideas: abandon chasing hot breaking news, focus on four core data types 1. ETF capital flows Distinguish short-term arbitrage in/out from sustained net inflows/outflows; single-day capital fluctuations have little reference value, focus on medium- to long-term trends; 2. On-chain position data Changes in long-term holder chips, whale address position increases/decreases, spot withdrawals to wallets (hoarding), deposits to exchanges (preparing to sell); 3. Derivatives dimension Perpetual funding rates, open interest, long-short position ratios, option call and put distributions; 4. Fundamental capital Top enterprise treasury position changes, protocol fee income, scale of RWA and compliant capital inflows. 5. Summary After market institutionalization, information will become increasingly complex, with various positive and negative news bombarding. Short-term betting on price moves based on news is ultimately a game of luck; only by understanding whether real capital behind the news is entering to build positions or exiting to cash out can one avoid emotional chasing and panic selling. Reduce anxiety from fragmented breaking news, calmly track chip movements; this is the more stable trading logic in today’s market. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This article is only market logic popularization and data analysis interpretation, not any spot or contract trading advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; manage positions rationally. $SNDK $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 $BTC continues to prove why it remains the market's undisputed leader. Beneath the surface, capital keeps flowing toward strength instead of speculation. For years, nearly every altcoin tier has declined against Bitcoin. This spring, that prolonged selloff finally formed the strongest structural floor of the entire downtrend. Now the rotation is quietly resuming. As the market moves higher, smaller-cap altcoins are once again losing ground to Bitcoin. That's exactly what a healthy recovery looks like. Strong bull markets begin with capital concentrating in the asset with the deepest liquidity and highest conviction. That leadership belongs to Bitcoin. Only after Bitcoin establishes dominance does liquidity expand across the broader altcoin market. Early altcoin rallies create hype. Bitcoin leadership creates lasting trends. The foundation is holding. The rotation is unfolding. History suggests this is where the next major expansion begins.$AMD and $SPCX both exceeded expectations, so why were they sold off after hours? Let's start with the conclusion AMD fell about 7% after hours, and SpaceX dropped about 6%. It’s not because the earnings reports were bad, but because the market never priced these two companies based on “normal outperformance” to begin with. The issue with AMD is overly high expectations, while SpaceX’s problem is spending too fast. AMD: The surprise was already priced in before the earnings AMD’s Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year; adjusted EPS was $1.66. The Q3 revenue guidance was also around $13 billion. Data center revenue reached $6.718 billion, up 107% year-over-year. Both EPYC and Instinct are scaling up. This earnings report, if applied to most chip companies, would have no major issues to pick on. Yet AMD was still sold off after hours. The first reason is simple: the stock had already risen about 7% on the day before the earnings. Investors bought in early, betting not just on AMD slightly beating expectations, but on MI450 and Helios delivering a real earnings explosion ahead of time. The result was revenue about 2% above expectations, EPS about 2.5% higher, and Q3 guidance about 4% above. The numbers are good but not surprising enough to justify the pre-earnings run-up. The second issue is gross margin. AMD’s adjusted gross margin remains around 56%, and free cash flow dropped from $2.566 billion last quarter to $1.558 billion. AI chips are selling more and more, but profit margins haven’t clearly improved. Naturally, the market questions whether AMD is making money through product competitiveness or by undercutting Nvidia’s orders with lower prices. So this drop looks more like a typical “buy the rumor, sell the fact.” The market hasn’t suddenly turned bearish on AMD; it’s realizing that MI450 and Helios won’t contribute significant revenue at scale until Q4 or even 2027. The expectations priced in early now have to be given back. This also serves as a reminder for optical modules and storage. AMD confirmed that AI infrastructure demand hasn’t disappeared, but the market no longer rewards “having orders.” Orders must quickly convert to revenue, and revenue must continue to turn into profit; otherwise, even a good earnings report can be sold off. SpaceX: The more revenue beats, the more the market worries about cash burn SpaceX’s Q2 revenue was about $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, significantly beating market expectations, and losses narrowed substantially. Starlink remains strong. Connectivity business revenue was about $4.29 billion, operating profit nearly $1.66 billion, with a margin close to 39%, and paying users increased to about 12 million. Starlink is no longer just a money-burning user acquisition project; it’s currently SpaceX’s most stable cash source. But the problem is this cash cow can’t support the company’s current expansion pace. SpaceX’s quarterly capital expenditure was nearly $18.4 billion, more than twice the quarter’s revenue, with about $15.8 billion invested in AI infrastructure. The market originally expected AI capex around $13 billion, but the actual figure burned nearly $3 billion more. This is the core reason for the after-hours sell-off. Investors don’t see “SpaceX adding another AI business,” but rather a company building data centers at a pace far exceeding its revenue. The money Starlink earns hasn’t even warmed up before being consumed by AI and Starship together. Worse, although the AI business’s adjusted EBITDA has turned positive, it still operates at a loss on the operating level. SpaceX’s rocket business also continues to lose money due to ongoing Starship R&D. In other words, the only truly stable profit source for SpaceX right now is Starlink; the other two businesses still require ongoing investment. If AI contracts grow rapidly and Starship progresses as planned, this spending could lead to a bigger market. But with quarterly capex at $18.4 billion, any delays will be very costly. Before the earnings, SpaceX had already seen a clear run-up, with some shorts covering early. After the report, short-term funds saw capex far exceeding expectations and naturally locked in profits. Also, about 912 million shares will enter the first lockup expiration on August 6. The market’s biggest fear now isn’t bad earnings but an oversupply of new shares. No matter how strong the earnings, it’s hard to immediately offset nearly a billion shares of potential selling pressure. Why might aerospace stocks also be sold off? SpaceX is the valuation benchmark for the entire commercial aerospace sector. Its revenue grew 92%, Starlink’s margin is close to 39%, yet it was still sold off due to rapid cash burn. Investors will easily ask: if even SpaceX needs constant financing, when will other aerospace companies without stable revenue truly generate cash flow? So if $RKLB , ASTS, LUNR, and RDW come under pressure in the short term, it doesn’t mean they suddenly lost orders, but that the market is recalculating how much money the entire aerospace industry needs. RKLB’s logic is relatively better. SpaceX is reserving more Falcon 9 capacity for Starlink, so external customers do need a second reliable launch provider. But until Neutron succeeds, RKLB’s trades are still based on expectations. ASTS’s problem is more direct. Starlink proved satellite communication demand is real and that SpaceX is becoming a stronger competitor. ASTS ultimately must prove differentiation through its own satellite deployment and operator partnerships. LUNR and RDW mainly depend on NASA, defense contracts, and specific project progress. They shouldn’t be chased just because SpaceX’s earnings are strong, nor should they be written off just because SpaceX fell after hours. My view on the aerospace sector hasn’t turned bearish, but this is definitely not the time to chase highs. Watch SpaceX after the August 6 lockup expiration to see if it can absorb selling pressure; RKLB should wait for Neutron progress; ASTS should be monitored for satellite deployment. Companies with real orders, technology, and the ability to reach positive cash flow can be held, but positions purely riding SpaceX sentiment should be cautious. This round of sell-off isn’t the market rejecting AI and aerospace, but the market asking a more realistic question: After investing so much money, when will it actually be earned back? It bought nearly 80,000 ETH in a month and you're still waiting for a lower price One address has been buying continuously for over a month, and today it made another move. On-chain monitoring shows that 3 hours ago it scooped up 3,960 ETH, spending about $7.4 million. Looking back at the account, since June 30, this address has accumulated 79,216 ETH, spending a total of $140.77 million, with an average cost of 1777. During the same period, it also casually bought 1,400 WBTC, spending $89.44 million, at an average price of 63,887. The status of these two transactions is quite interesting now. The ETH cost is 1777, and the current price is over 1800, so it’s in profit. The BTC cost is 63,887, but BTC has been fluctuating between 63,000 and 64,000 these past two days, so it’s basically a wasted effort, even slightly at a loss. Same person, same period, same bullish logic, one makes money and the other loses, the only difference is the different extent of the previous price drops for these two assets. I stared at this ledger for a while and found the interesting part isn’t how much it bought, but how it bought. Over a month, it added in batches, never all at once. So even if the BTC position isn’t profitable yet, it doesn’t have to worry about liquidation and still has ammo to keep buying. If you look back at those accounts that blew up this past month, the problem was basically not the wrong direction, but that they used up all their ammo on day one, so it was useless to adjust later. Back to the market. BTC is now pressing near the 200-week moving average at 63,657. You can think of this line as the average cost line of all buyers over the past four years; standing above it means most people aren’t losing, falling below means most are trapped. Right now it’s hovering around this line, with no one gaining an advantage. The ETH structure is clearer: Coinglass data shows that if it drops to around 1780, there are $786 million in long positions waiting to be liquidated; if it surges to around 1956, there are $767 million in short positions waiting to be liquidated. The two walls are almost equally thick, with the price stuck in the middle—whichever side breaks first will feel the pain. This setup is really tough for swing traders; standing on either side risks being swept out. A relatively safer approach is to avoid making moves in the middle of the walls, wait until the price really touches a wall and breaks out with volume, then decide the direction. As for whether this whale will keep buying, no one knows, and it owes us no explanation. In the short term, this continuous buying over more than a month can’t support the price. $140 million sounds scary, but spread over more than thirty days, it’s less than $5 million a day, which can be overshadowed by a single large transfer on an exchange. So don’t expect that because it buys, you have to follow. But looking at a longer cycle, this kind of quiet, batch-building capital without announcements or tweets is a different species from the money chasing news. The former’s cost is earned through endurance, the latter’s cost is grabbed quickly. Once the market really moves, whose hands are steadier is basically written in the cost price. By the way, many people get overwhelmed when they see the word "moving average." Actually, it’s not that mysterious; it’s just the average price everyone bought over a period. If the price is above the moving average, most people are making money; if below, most are trapped. BTC’s current position is exactly at the breakeven point for everyone, with no one yielding. I’m more curious about one thing. It’s making money on ETH and losing on BTC. If it could only keep one now, which one do you think it would cut?$SOL The two Solana (SOL) unlocks in August have limited direct selling pressure on the market in terms of scale, but the psychological impact could be greater. Especially given the already fragile market sentiment, caution is needed regarding the potential cumulative effect with other negative factors. #临时通航协议待落地，油价风险尚未反转 🔑 Unlock details: small scale, special nature · August 7 unlock: about 472,600 SOL involved, valued at approximately $34.86 million, accounting for only 0.07% of the total supply. Notably, this portion is related to the bankruptcy asset distribution of Alameda and FTX, representing a legal and administrative release. · August 11 unlock: about 164,400 SOL involved, valued at approximately $12.12 million, accounting for 0.03% of the total supply. · Total proportion: the two unlocks total about 637,000 SOL, valued at approximately $47 million, together accounting for only about 0.1% of the total supply, a very small ratio. 📉 Potential impact: limited selling pressure, but psychological shock should not be ignored · Limited direct selling pressure: the total unlock amount is less than 640,000 SOL, which can be directly absorbed by the market compared to SOL’s daily trading volume of billions of dollars. · Psychological game of “expectation”: the market often preemptively factors in known unlock news. The real risk lies in some investors possibly selling early out of panic. · Warning from historical data: data shows that after the past four major SOL unlock events, prices dropped within 7 days; looking at the 1-month performance, 3 out of 4 times closed lower. · Current fragile market environment: SOL is currently hovering around $74, with the market fear and greed index at only 27 (panic zone). The total unlock scale in August exceeds $1.28 billion, and SOL’s linear unlock may "continue to drag down the overall market trend." 💎 Summary The two SOL unlocks in August impose little substantial selling pressure but may exacerbate short-term market volatility and panic sentiment. Their impact will be more psychological and will combine with the overall market environment in August. It is recommended to closely monitor SOL’s trading volume and price trends before and after the unlocks, as well as whale address activity.On the 838th day of the 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle, the $BTC price is roughly the same as the price on the halving day, which has never happened before in history. In previous halving cycles, it was about 23 times in 2012, about 10 times in 2016, about 3 times in 2020, and only 1 time in 2024.According to monitoring by The Data Nerd, mining company MARA Holdings transferred 6,000 Bitcoins to TwoPrime in the past 12 hours, worth approximately $384.6 million. This transfer is part of MARA's current holdings of approximately 36,303 Bitcoin vaults, valued at approximately $2.34 billion. Market speculation is that the shift to custody accounts is due to asset security and compliant custody considerations, rather than direct selling. MARA is transitioning from a "pure miner" to an "energy and AI infrastructure company," holding large amounts of Bitcoin and viewing it as an activated asset. TwoPrime is an SEC-registered investment advisor and CFTC-registered commodity trading advisor, providing Bitcoin investment and lending services to institutional clients. It has provided Bitcoin-backed loans to several listed mining companies and managed over $3 billion in loan capacity. Entrusting such a large amount of Bitcoin to professional third-party custody is an important step for MARA to promote asset transparency, compliance, and unlock asset value. Moving mining company vaults from their own wallets to custodians did not change supply and demand, but it shifted market expectations that this batch of Bitcoin could be sold at any time. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed: #财报观察员: Mixed Results, Lifting Restrictions Imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved The S&P 500 hits new highs, but BTC can't hold above 65000; the real problem has been exposed In the past two days, the S&P 500 index has continuously refreshed its historical highs, and market risk appetite has clearly rebounded. Under normal circumstances, if the US stock market keeps rising, BTC, as a high-risk asset, should theoretically strengthen in sync, or even have a greater increase. But now, what we see is a different situation. BTC has never been able to effectively hold above $65,000. Every time it rebounds near $65,000, it encounters obvious selling pressure and is quickly pushed down by capital. What does this indicate? It indicates that BTC's current trend is clearly weaker than the US stock market. When risk assets overall rise, BTC does not follow; if the US stock market pulls back tonight, BTC is likely to face greater downward pressure than the S&P 500. This trend actually reflects the attitude of market capital. Currently, more capital is flowing into traditional risk assets, while incremental funds entering the crypto market remain insufficient. Now let's look at ETH. Although ETH has also rebounded, the strength is obviously weaker, and it still hasn't firmly held above key resistance areas. This shows that the market's risk appetite for crypto assets has not rebounded in sync with the US stock market's new highs. This is why I have been consistently holding one view recently: A rebound is an opportunity, and a surge is an opportunity to position short. Currently, BTC's biggest resistance remains near $65,000. As long as there is no real volume breakout above $65,000 and a firm hold above it, I will prioritize viewing every rebound as a pullback rather than a trend reversal. The most important thing to watch tonight is the performance after the US stock market opens. If the S&P 500 continues to rise strongly while BTC still can't hold above $65,000, it means BTC's weak structure remains unchanged. If the S&P 500 experiences profit-taking with a high open and low close tonight, BTC is very likely to amplify its decline and retest lower support. My overall thinking remains unchanged. BTC's highs keep lowering, ETH's rebound strength is limited, and the market still lacks real incremental funds. Until the trend changes, I will continue to short on rallies and trade with the trend. PUA anonymous exclusive original!!!The market is currently in a typical PvP state of "main token sideways drainage, rapid differentiation of altcoins, and emotional turmoil." --- 1. Today's Market Sentiment and Market Review 1. Market Volume Shrinks and Fluctuates, Mainstream Coins Lack Direction: BTC ($64,317 / +0.71%): Held in a narrow range around $64,000 throughout the day. Both bulls and bears were cautious before the US stock market opened, with a large liquidation chart piling up at $65,000 above and insufficient willingness to dip downward, typical of a no-volume long/short accumulation phase. ETH ($1,876 / +0.11%): Extremely weak trend, ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline. Without new Layer 2 or restaking narrative stimulation, funds continue to flow out, resulting in a weak sideways movement. 2. Hedging and Linkage with Traditional Assets: XAU/XAUT (Gold Perpetual/Spot +2.80%): Climbed to a high of $4,190, showing strong macro risk aversion and inflation resistance. Funds diverted between cryptocurrencies and gold, with safe-haven funds prioritizing gold over BTC. SPY (+1.87%) vs. Tech Stocks: US stocks strengthened but failed to effectively pass on to crypto main currencies. Internal funds in the crypto market are concentrated in some altcoins and derivatives sectors, without forming a comprehensive risk-on. --- 2. Analysis of Trending Chart Changes Today's movement list showed an extremely one-sided rally followed by a cliff-like plunge Family, global stock markets have hit new highs again. The S&P 500 has surpassed 7700 points for the first time, with Asian markets like Japan and South Korea rebounding simultaneously. The AI rally, corporate earnings beating expectations, and easing US-Iran tensions—these three forces have pushed funds back into risk assets. But the hottest market moments are also when risks are easiest to overlook. Many indicators are already flashing yellow. The Shiller P/E ratio has exceeded the level before the 2008 financial crisis, and the Buffett indicator has reached historically high ranges. Valuations are at extreme levels, which means long-term returns are likely to decline. Citigroup analysts said a couple of days ago that no major US stock index remains within a "reasonable valuation" range in this rally. Simply put, no matter which direction you take, you have to deal with high valuations. Currently, funds are trading on AI growth and liquidity expectations. As long as earnings can be realized, high valuations can be maintained. But once growth fails to keep up with prices, volatility will quickly amplify. Whether this bull market can hold depends not on sentiment but on earnings. If there is any crack in AI's earnings realization, valuation contraction will come swiftly. My stance has always been: don’t feel safe just because prices have risen, and don’t assume a crash is inevitable just because valuations are high. It’s more reliable to proceed cautiously at this stage than to draw conclusions prematurely. How long do you think these valuations can hold? Let’s discuss in the comments. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH $SPCX #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 The S&P 500 officially surpassed 7700 points, setting a new historical record. Strong corporate earnings, continuous performance fulfillment in the AI industry chain, and a rebound in market risk appetite collectively drove this round of gains. Many attribute this rally to AI, but I believe the true driver behind the index's continuous new highs is not a single hotspot, but the market's revaluation of future profitability. In recent years, the U.S. stock market has faced a series of challenges including high interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts. Yet after each pullback, capital ultimately flows to companies that can consistently generate cash flow and improve production efficiency. AI is merely the most representative vehicle currently, essentially reflecting the market's expectations for future productivity improvements. Reaching 7700 points is certainly noteworthy, but historical experience tells us that round number milestones mostly affect sentiment rather than the trend. What truly determines whether the market can continue to rise is whether corporate earnings in the coming quarters can continue to exceed expectations and whether the market is willing to assign higher valuations. For the crypto market, the sustained improvement in U.S. stock risk appetite is also a meaningful reference. When global capital is willing to take on more risk, tech stocks and crypto assets often resonate to some extent. However, caution is needed: the higher the index climbs, the greater the market's performance expectations become. If earnings fall short of expectations, volatility in high-valuation assets may also increase. Trading is not about predicting the peak but following the money. As long as capital has not exited, the trend remains worthy of respect; once capital starts to withdraw, even the best stories struggle to support prices. Calm on the surface, with funds quietly flowing underneath—but this time, it comes with clear selectivity. This is not a broad rally. The market is diverging, and capital is being cautiously reallocated. BTC and ETH remain liquidity hubs, absorbing most of the incremental funds, while most altcoins remain trapped in a liquidity vacuum. The core logic of this cycle has shifted from "speculating on expectations" to "verifying reality." Capital is systematically concentrating on projects with the following characteristics: real fundamentals, sustainable on-chain activity, clear revenue models, and long-term necessity. The core sectors and representative assets currently gathering liquidity are: Underlying infrastructure: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, BNB Oracles and middleware: $LINK DeFi protocol layer: $AAVE RWA and compliant assets: $ONDO Application layer hotspots: $HYPE The next phase of rotation I am focusing on targets projects with clear expansion logic or whose core narratives are entering the realization phase: SUI, TAO, WLD, PENDLE, ENA, SEI, KAITO, HUMA The most enduring narrative remains: AI Agent infrastructure, RWA asset tokenization, next-generation DeFi paradigms, and the still-expanding high-performance L1s. However, the market’s tolerance for "stories" has significantly decreased—no users, no revenue, no on-chain data means no valuation premium. Meme assets (such as SHIB, PE, BONK, WIF, TRUMP, VIRTUAL, BEAT, LAB) are not without opportunity, but they require new catalysts and incremental liquidity resonance. Under the current risk-reward ratio, they lack sufficient appeal. Unless the macro environment significantly improves, this structural divergence is very likely to continue—capital will keep concentrating in quality assets, while other varieties gradually bleed out. The rules have never been clearer: don’t guess where liquidity is going, follow it. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Anomalous signals in the US stock earnings season: Why do strong numbers lead to sell-offs? How should Web3 players leverage this As of August 5, an interesting phenomenon has appeared in the US Q2 earnings season: many companies delivered impressive results, yet the market reaction was direct sell-offs. High-profile stocks like $SPCX, $AAPL, $MSFT, $META, $TSLA, and $AMD showed good earnings numbers but fell about 9% in after-hours trading. Earnings season is essentially a large-scale event trade. The numbers themselves are not the focus; how the market reprices these numbers is. For beginners reading earnings reports, focus on these 5 areas: 1. Revenue — Where is the money coming from? What is the quality? Don’t be fooled by big numbers like “92% year-over-year growth.” Take SpaceX as an example: Starlink: $4.29 billion, +66% YoY, the main profit contributor. AI business: $2.56 billion, +247% YoY, fastest growth but with $15.83 billion CapEx in a single quarter. X (advertising): $367 million, -14% YoY, still declining over six months. The fastest growth isn’t necessarily the best; the truly profitable segment is more important. Revenue growth ≠ high-quality growth. 2. Profit — Has growth turned into real profitability? Focus on gross margin and operating margin. Capital-intensive companies fear "growth at the cost of huge investments." While AI business expands rapidly, future equipment depreciation will gradually eat into profits. Revenue may rise, but profits may not keep pace. 3. Cash Flow — Is the money really staying? Operating cash flow, CapEx, and free cash flow are key. SpaceX’s six-month operating cash flow is about $3.466 billion, but capital expenditures reached $28.48 billion. The market worries not about "whether there is growth," but "how much money this growth burns." Revenue growth ≠ healthy cash flow. 4. Future Guidance — Can growth continue? Earnings reports reflect the past; stock prices trade the future. No matter how good the headline numbers are, the market ultimately looks at whether promises can be fulfilled and when investments will convert into real profits. Many Web3 projects are the same: whitepapers, roadmaps, and fundraising stories all talk about the future, but the market will reprice based on actual execution. 5. Valuation — Has the future been overdrawn? Investors buy not just today’s business but bet on whether it can become a super growth engine. If growth falls short of expectations, even if the company is still growing, the stock price may fall. Stock prices trade on expectation gaps, not absolute growth. The same applies to crypto: strong technology, many users, good ecosystem, but if FDV already prices in the entire future, repricing will happen. The most interesting part about SpaceX this time: Before earnings: it had already risen in advance. After earnings: initial reaction was buying (92% revenue growth, EBITDA beat), with after-hours gains. After deeper analysis: seeing $18.37 billion CapEx in a single quarter and $15.8 billion AI-related investment, the market started to fall. After repricing: it gradually recovered. Typical earnings trade rhythm: first glance at growth, second at cash flow, finally at expectation gaps. Insights for Web3 traders: Entering the on-chain finance era, the advantage is no longer just trading tokens. More importantly, learn to observe why global capital flows in, how it trades, and then capture a share through market funding spreads. Current earnings season trading strategies: Earnings direction trade: go long/short based on actual market reaction after release. Industry hedging: Long on strong cash flow and solid business models, short on high investment with low returns. Derivatives tools: trade funding rates, yield opportunities, etc. Web3 and traditional markets are increasingly interconnected. Understanding these capital logics has more long-term value than simply chasing hot topics. $XSPCX 🚨 Altcoin season pressure is rapidly building BTC remains range-bound, while these coins continue to show real strength: $SOL $84–365 $HYPE $64–188 $TAO $199–966 $DEXE $4.4–33 $ONDO $0.39–3.8 $RENDER $1.56–17.5 $EUL $1.63–14.4 $AAVE $91.6–377 $NEAR $1.85–16.3 $SUI $0.72–5.99 $LINK $8.44–48.8 $INJ closely watched 🔥 The quiet accumulation of quality coins is already visible When broader rotation arrives, these will be the first and strongest gainers Don’t rush. Just stay ready I. Kashkari's stance on the Fed's rate hike pace 1. Rate hike pace position: Confirms that the current rate hike cycle should begin, but firmly opposes large single rate hikes, favoring a gradual, small-step rate hike approach. 2. Inflation cause assessment: The core cause of this inflation round is supply chain supply shocks; overheated consumer demand is only a secondary contributing factor. 3. Core policy goal: The sole purpose of rate hikes is to suppress inflation, not to deliberately suppress the economy or forcibly cool it down, striving to avoid a hard economic landing. 4. Monetary policy principles: Rejects preset fixed number of rate hikes or fixed meeting rate hike plans; monetary policy is entirely data-driven and flexible; meanwhile, continuously communicates market expectations, releasing policy logic in advance to reduce severe market volatility. II. Internal Fed attitude 1. Faction positioning: Moderately hawkish, rejecting aggressive hawkishness The market previously speculated on extreme tightening expectations such as large single rate hikes or consecutive intensive hikes; Kashkari's statements cooled down overheated aggressive rate hike expectations. He acknowledges inflation pressure requires rate hikes (a hawkish underlying stance) but rejects violent rate hikes, indicating clear internal Fed divisions: some officials advocate rapid hikes to extinguish inflation, while others, represented by Kashkari, choose moderate tightening balancing inflation and economic resilience. 2. Inflation logic determines rate hike method If inflation is purely caused by rampant consumer and corporate investment demand, aggressive rate hikes tightening credit would quickly cool demand with rapid effect; But inflation caused by supply-side issues (raw material shortages, geopolitical costs, logistics bottlenecks) cannot be fixed by rate hikes; large hikes would severely damage corporate revenue and reduce employment, triggering recession. Therefore, gradual hikes moderately constrain excess demand, allowing supply side time to recover, a compromise balancing both ends. III. Impact on major markets 1. US Dollar Market - Negative for short-term strong dollar: expectations for large rate hikes fall, the dollar loses the strongest driver for unilateral surge, the pace of rise slows, likely entering a high-level range-bound phase; - Medium to long-term dollar still has bottom support: the start of the rate hike cycle is a set direction, just slower pace, rate cut expectations will be further delayed, making deep dollar declines unlikely. 2. Gold and precious metals Gold prices are highly negatively correlated with US Treasury real yields: slower rate hike pace compresses upward space for Treasury yields, weakens the rise in real rates, marginally reducing the core force suppressing gold prices, narrowing gold's downside space and increasing chances of volatile rebounds. 3. US Stock Market - Positive for high-valuation growth stocks and tech sector: aggressive hikes continuously raise corporate financing costs, compressing valuations of high-valuation sectors; gradual hikes mean slower liquidity contraction pace, significantly easing valuation pressure on growth stocks; - Market volatility converges: policy no longer tightens in a one-size-fits-all manner, the market avoids panic selling, and the market will more closely follow fundamentals like corporate earnings and inflation data; defensive attributes of value stocks remain intact. 4. Cryptocurrency Crypto assets are highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity: Cooling of aggressive rate hike expectations weakens liquidity drain in the crypto space, exhausts negative sentiment, warms sentiment, and reduces crash risk; However, the rate hike cycle has already started, overall liquidity is still marginally tightening, making a full-scale bull market unlikely, with the market mainly showing range-bound and structural trends. $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 I see many KOLs advertising, so they deliberately avoid mentioning this issue: $WLFI promises protocol buybacks for the community... meaning the WLFI portion of the LP trading fees on the chain and a part of U In reality, the most profitable USD1 is the US Treasury bonds bought with dollars This part is completely consumed Then the exchange subsidizes the USD1 activity And issues costless WLFI This causes the $wlfi price to keep falling, hurting buyers and holders I am optimistic about USD1 and WLFI Maybe at the right time WLFI will rise. They definitely have ways. But for early buyers It's too painful #wlfi #usd1 📈 Gold Blasts Through Its Long-Term Trendline To $4,200 The line finally broke. After months of getting rejected at the descending trendline, gold ripped 3.03% to $4,201, tagging $4,219 intraday. This is the diagonal that capped every rally since the January record, and it just gave way. 📈 Where it stands: Price: ~$4,201 (up 3.03%) Broke: the long-term descending trendline from the $5,595 top RSI: stretched into overbought Session high: $4,219 On the 1D, this is a genuine structural break. The Wyckoff bottoming sequence played out, selling climax, automatic rally, secondary test, then price cleared the diagonal and printed a change of character. Breaking a trendline this old is the first real argument the downtrend is ending. But $4,200 is the pivotal line, and analysts flag it clearly: below it, this is a wedge breakout still consolidating; a decisive close above confirms real strength. RSI overbought means a pullback wouldn't surprise. Here's the honest driver, and it's not what you'd expect. This rally came from a weak dollar dropping below 100, not safe-haven buying. Even more telling, gold rose while news broke that Qatar drafted a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil tumbling below $75. Falling oil cut September Fed hike odds from 67% to 57%, and softer rate expectations lifted gold. This is a rate-and-dollar trade, not a fear trade. The same easing pressure quietly helps Bitcoin, both freed by a softer dollar. What to watch: Close above $4,200 with volume, and $4,360 then higher open up. Reject here and lose $4,086, and this fades back into the range. Breaking a long trendline is a milestone, holding above $4,200 is the proof. No chasing an overbought spike. Let $4,200 confirm on a close, then act. Real trend change, or a wedge breakout that fades? Not financial advice. $XAU $XAUT $PAXG $BTC Market Update $BTC has rebounded sharply from the $60K region and is now consolidating near local highs. The market is still being driven by U.S. economic data, Fed rate-cut expectations, and institutional capital flows. While the longer-term outlook remains constructive, short-term volatility is likely to continue. Today's game plan: ✅ Hold spot positions and avoid getting shaken out by short-term price swings. ✅ If you're looking to add, scale in gradually instead of buying all at once. ✅ For short-term trades, wait for confirmed breakouts with strong volume rather than chasing every move. The current structure still favors a bullish consolidation, supported by ETF inflows, institutional demand, and improving liquidity expectations. As long as key support levels hold, pullbacks are more likely to be healthy trend resets than signs of a reversal. Remember, Bitcoin's biggest moves are usually driven by liquidity shifts, not day-to-day price fluctuations. Stay patient, manage risk, and let the trend confirm before becoming more aggressive. For those following a DCA strategy, today still favors small, consistent purchases over emotional FOMO buying. #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates Today the ADP data was released, showing only 44,000 new jobs added, significantly below the market expectation of 70,000. Many people's first reaction to the employment decline is negative. But the market logic has actually changed now. Because the biggest variable currently is not the economy, but interest rates. The cooler the employment, the less wage pressure there is, and the less reason the Federal Reserve has to maintain high interest rates. So now, often bad data is interpreted by the market as an increased expectation of rate cuts. Of course, one ADP report cannot determine the trend; the real key is Friday's nonfarm payrolls. If the nonfarm payrolls are also weak, the market's expectation for rate cuts within the year is likely to continue to rise, which is why recently both the US stock market and $BTC have been paying special attention to employment data. $BTC Brothers, $SPCX played out a classic script today: first rising then falling, leaving the bulls caught off guard. During regular trading hours, it surged steadily, closing up 9%, as the market anticipated positive earnings, and many chased in betting on explosive performance. But after-hours earnings came out showing revenue nearly doubled and losses continued to narrow, the data looked great, yet funds reversed and slammed the stock down, dropping over 8% at one point. Many don’t understand why it fell despite beating expectations. Let me break it down for you: First, AI capital expenditure scared off funds. Over 18 billion spent in one quarter on computing power construction, and management clearly stated high investment will continue in the second half. The long-term story is attractive, but the short-term continuous cash burn makes funds worry about the payback period. Second, buy the rumor, sell the news. The stock price ran up ahead of earnings, and once the good news landed, short-term profit takers rushed to exit. Third, the biggest risk is looming: on August 6, a massive lock-up expiration will release chips worth hundreds of billions into the market, and everyone is wary of original shareholders cashing out. Talking key price levels, straight up: • Short-term resistance above at 128–132; to regain strength, it must hold above this range; • First support at 114–118; if this breaks, the correction space widens; • Key watch at the 100 level below, which was my previous plan for phased entry; the golden zone to wait for is around 80. Objectively, SpaceX’s long-term track is undeniable, with Starlink continuously generating cash flow, AI computing power, and aerospace infrastructure all hitting future growth themes. But long-term logic is long-term; short-term price depends on funds and chips. With the lock-up looming overhead, funds dare not enter aggressively, and the shakeout is far from over. Don’t blindly rush in just because earnings look good; chasing highs is the biggest taboo now. My approach remains unchanged: patiently wait for further pullbacks, no rush to reach out. If you want to position, wait for risks to be fully released and build positions slowly when the price offers good value.PAXG (PAX Gold) Real-Time Market Analysis (August 5, 2026) 1. Real-Time Price Overview As of August 5, 2026, the latest transaction price of PAXG/USDT on the OKX platform is $4,186.8, with a 24-hour increase of 2.56%, and a mark price of $4,187.5. The price fluctuated between $4,059.1 and $4,203.5 during the day. The 24-hour trading volume is approximately 1,458.54 PAXG, with a turnover of about 6.047 million USDT. PAXG is a 1:1 physical gold-backed token issued by PAX Gold, with each PAXG representing one troy ounce of London Good Delivery gold. 2. Technical Analysis Bollinger Bands Signal: The price of $4,186.8 is close to the upper Bollinger Band at $4,207.9, with the middle band at $4,124.6 and the lower band at $4,041.2. After breaking above the upper band, the price slightly retreated, indicating short-term overbought correction pressure. RSI Overbought Signal: RSI(6) at 80.52, RSI(15) at 76.65, RSI(24) at 73.59—all three periods are in the overbought zone (RSI(6) is especially significant, exceeding 80), indicating a high risk of short-term correction. MACD Bullish Alignment: DIF at 28.8 > DEA at 23.8, MACD histogram at 9.9 positive, showing sustained bullish momentum but with a slowing expansion of the histogram. KDJ: K value at 80.8, D value at 83.2, with a high-level death cross risk accumulating, corroborating the RSI signals. Overall, PAXG is in a strong bullish trend, but short-term overbought signals are evident, suggesting possible high-level volatility or technical correction. 3. Driving Factors: Gold Breaks Through $4,200, Risk-Off Sentiment Explodes 1. Spot Gold Surpasses $4,200/oz (Direct Catalyst) Spot gold surged 3.02% intraday, breaking above $4,200/oz to a record high. Ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions, uncertain US-Iran negotiations, and global stock market turmoil have driven gold as the ultimate safe-haven asset to attract significant capital inflows. As a gold-backed token directly tradable on-chain, PAXG has become one of the preferred tools for crypto investors to gain gold exposure. 2. Coldcard Hacker Incident Adds Fuel The $120 million Coldcard hardware wallet hacking incident is still unfolding, severely damaging self-custody confidence. Some funds are flowing from self-custodied BTC wallets to on-chain gold (PAXG) and Bitcoin spot ETFs, further boosting PAXG buying pressure. 3. Weakening Dollar + Declining Real Interest Rates The US 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to around 4.69%, the dollar index is about 99.6, and declining real interest rates have increased gold's appeal. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have reignited, providing macro support for gold. 4. Key Levels Resistance: $4,203–4,208 (Bollinger upper band and today's high) → $4,250 (round number) → $4,300–4,350 (next target range) Support: $4,140–4,150 (Bollinger middle band) → $4,100–4,120 (short-term support) → $4,059 (today's low, trend lifeline) 5. Summary PAXG surged 2.56% today following spot gold breaking above $4,200. Technically, it shows a strong bullish trend but with clear short-term overbought conditions—RSI(6) at 80.52—warranting caution for high-level correction risk. The $4,203–4,208 range is the first resistance—if volume breaks through and holds above $4,250, it could open space toward $4,300–4,350; if rejected and falls below $4,140, a retest of $4,100 or even $4,059 is possible. The core drivers of the current gold rally are geopolitical risk-off sentiment, the Coldcard incident triggering a self-custody trust crisis, and a weakening dollar. The short-term uptrend in gold remains intact, but the severe RSI overbought warns of high risk in chasing prices; buying on dips after a correction may be a better strategy. $PAXG Recently, an interesting change has appeared in the market: Many people are still focused on when Bitcoin will break through or hit new highs, but the attention of funds seems to be quietly shifting. The Federal Reserve is temporarily holding steady, macro uncertainty still exists, but new signals have emerged on-chain, in derivatives, and in capital flows. One of my observations is: In the short term, the capital elasticity and market attention of ETH may be surpassing BTC. Of course, this does not mean BTC is losing value, but the market may be entering a new phase of capital rotation. Here are three signals. ⸻ 📊 Signal One: ETH bullish sentiment is clearly stronger than BTC In the past period, the funding rates for ETH perpetual contracts have remained positive and relatively higher than BTC. This indicates a market change: 👉 More traders are willing to pay funding costs to continue holding long ETH positions. Simply put: Previously, when the market rose, the first choice for capital was usually BTC. But now some funds are starting to seek assets with higher elasticity, and ETH has become an important target. At the same time, on-chain data shows some ETH is flowing out of exchanges. A decrease in exchange balances usually means: * Short-term selling pressure is reduced; * Some funds choose to hold long-term; * Market chips are being redistributed. ⸻ 🔥 Signal Two: The Ethereum ecosystem is regaining capital attention One of the biggest narratives in the past year was: "Does ETH still have room to grow?" The reason is simple: L2 traffic diversion, fee reductions, and the rise of competing chains have made many question ETH's value capture ability. But recently, the market has shown some changes. Activity in Layer2 ecosystems like Arbitrum and Base has rebounded, DeFi protocol TVL has begun to stabilize, and some on-chain application transaction volumes are growing again. This means: The market is focusing not just on ETH's price, but on the entire economic system behind ETH. Because ETH's true value is not just as an asset. It connects: * The DeFi financial system; * Stablecoin settlements; * RWA asset issuance; * Layer2 scaling ecosystems. If on-chain activity grows again, ETH may regain valuation logic as "on-chain economic infrastructure." ⸻ ⚠️ Signal Three: BTC market dominance may be changing For a long time, BTC has absorbed a large amount of market liquidity. Whether ETF funds, institutional allocations, or hedging demand, BTC has been the first choice. But the market has a pattern: When BTC rises into a relatively stable phase, capital often seeks higher-yield opportunities. Historically, multiple cycles have seen similar situations: BTC dominance peaks and then declines, with funds starting to spread to ETH and quality ecosystem assets. This does not mean BTC will necessarily fall. More likely it represents: The market is moving from a "single BTC narrative" to a "multi-asset rotation phase." ⸻ My personal view (not investment advice) Currently, my observation is: BTC remains the core asset of the crypto market, and its long-term value has not changed. But short-term capital preferences are shifting: Previously: BTC → ETH → Altcoins Now it may be evolving to: BTC steadily absorbs capital → ETH gains attention → Ecosystem assets seek opportunities So compared to earlier focus solely on BTC price, I believe ETH's performance deserves close attention. Of course, risks cannot be ignored: If there is: * A more hawkish-than-expected Fed policy; * Sudden global liquidity tightening; * A black swan event in the crypto market; Then both BTC and ETH will be affected. The market never has certainty, only probabilities. Do you think the next phase of capital will continue to revolve around BTC, or will ETH become the new capital center? Feel free to discuss in the comments below👇 (The above is only personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR) $ETH $BTC $SOL Many people interpret the recent sale of $BTC by the Trump family as bearish, but there might be another possibility. A reasonable explanation is that their reduction in Bitcoin holdings could be to comply with ethical requirements related to the Clarity Act, avoiding potential conflicts of interest and creating conditions for the smooth progress of the bill. After all, if they truly believe Bitcoin is about to enter a long-term downtrend, selling now might make sense; but if they still have a positive long-term outlook on Bitcoin, temporarily reducing holdings for regulatory or political reasons seems more like a strategic choice rather than a loss of confidence. If the Clarity Act ultimately passes smoothly, the market will gain a clearer regulatory framework, which could further enhance institutional participation and act as a significant catalyst for the entire crypto market. Often, what appears bearish on the surface does not necessarily represent true bearishness; some seemingly negative moves might actually be preparations for greater opportunities. $BTC #Crypto #CLARITYActVoteWatch #DailyOrbit #EarningsRealityCheck Samsung unveils next-generation 3D memory with "HBM5 8 times the performance"... "Breaking through AI chip barriers" Samsung Electronics unveiled the next-generation 3D memory 'zHBM', which directly stacks HBM on AI accelerators. zHBM can boost GPU performance up to 8 times that of HBM5 by shortening data travel distances, and power efficiency up to 3 times. HBM5 introduces GAA transistors and Foundry 2nm process for the first time, with heat control performance improved by more than 20% compared to the previous generation. The AI'z NAND-O' used for devices approaches existing DRAM servers in terms of performance, but costs are reduced to one-sixth. Samsung Electronics also unveiled the 10th generation 'V10 BV-NAND' stacked over 400 layers, aiming to reclaim leadership in the next-generation AI memory market. #存储服务器推荐 #存储芯片#存储 $SAMSUNG $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU ADP data suggests two points: first, labor demand is indeed weakening; second, the increase in job-switching premiums indicates that competition for existing positions remains intense. For the Federal Reserve, single-month data is insufficient to drive a rate cut in September. Wages are the biggest variable, with a focus on average hourly earnings in Friday's nonfarm payrolls. $BTC $ETH After BTC broke through 64,000, it surged and then pulled back. What catalysts are needed for further upward movement? After Bitcoin broke through $64,000, there was a short-term surge followed by a pullback. Many people are starting to focus on: What other positive factors can continue to drive the market upward? But it is important to note that most of the positive factors in the market are essentially expectation-driven, not events that have already been confirmed. Currently, the key factors affecting BTC's subsequent trend mainly include the following: 1. Progress in US-Iran negotiations: reducing geopolitical risks If US-Iran negotiations can proceed smoothly and geopolitical conflicts ease, market concerns about energy supply risks may decrease. After oil prices fall, inflationary pressure may further ease. And a decline in inflation expectations will enhance the market's imagination space for future policy shifts. For risk assets, this is a potential positive. But the key is: The market needs to see real progress in the agreement, not just one-sided signals. 2. Changes in policy expectations in September Another recent market focus is the future policy path of the Federal Reserve. If economic data gradually supports easing expectations, market risk appetite may rebound. A weaker dollar and US Treasury yields are favorable for the performance of risk assets like BTC and ETH. But if subsequent data remains strong, the market may reprice "high rates staying longer," putting pressure on risk assets again. 3. Whether ETF funds continue to flow back ETF funds are currently an important variable affecting BTC. If the short-term rise is accompanied by continuous net inflows into spot ETFs, it indicates real capital support behind the rise. If it is only driven by sentiment with insufficient trading volume, the sustainability of the rise may be limited. So the key observation going forward is: Whether funds continue to flow in. Not just daily price changes. 4. Changes in on-chain holdings Current on-chain data shows that some BTC holdings are shifting from short-term traders to long-term holders. If long-term holders continue to absorb supply, it indicates that market selling pressure is gradually decreasing. This is a positive signal for the medium- to long-term structure. But the market still faces two main risks: First, changes again in US-Iran negotiations If negotiations break down, geopolitical risks will heat up again, oil prices may rebound, and market risk aversion will increase. Second, August 7 nonfarm payroll data stronger than expected If employment data overheats, it may reduce market expectations for rate cuts, putting pressure on risk assets. BTC is not lacking stories now, but it needs positive factors to be realized. The US-Iran agreement, ETF fund inflows, and changes in rate cut expectations are key to driving the next phase of the market. If expectations gradually materialize, the market has a chance to continue upward; if it is just news-driven, the sustainability of the rebound still needs to be observed. $BTC #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ The S&P 500 surpasses 7700 points for the first time, but Bitcoin hasn't joined the US stock market's new high feast yet Overnight, the US stock market witnessed history again. The S&P 500 surged 1.79% to close at 7736.52 points, the first time ever closing above 7700; the Dow Jones soared 907 points to break 54,000, and the Nasdaq rose 2.59%. Leading the charge were chip stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soaring 6.55% in a single day, marking four consecutive days of gains. The optical communication and storage sectors collectively exploded, with Coherent and Marvell rising over 12%, Intel and SanDisk up more than 10%, and German and French stock indices also hitting new records. The confidence behind the new highs comes from two fronts. In July, semiconductors plunged over 20%, creating valuation space that quickly attracted capital back to AI hardware. Coupled with earnings season generally beating expectations, the market is once again betting on AI to deliver on this main theme. On the other hand, expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire and a temporary aviation agreement have suppressed geopolitical risks, causing oil prices to plunge over 5% in a single day and easing inflation concerns, effectively loosening constraints on risk assets. By contrast, the crypto market remains stagnant. Bitcoin hovers around $64,000 with less than 1% gain in 24 hours. However, there is some warmth in capital flows: on August 4, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows exceeding $170 million, with BlackRock's IBIT attracting $111 million, nearly matching the entire inflow for July. Yet the awkward truth cannot be hidden: $BTC has dropped more than 40% from $114,000 a year ago, nearly halving from the $126,000 peak on October 2025, and $ETH remains around $1870. The ratio of the S&P to Bitcoin has just broken through the long-term average, signaling a reversal in a 14-year trend. The core contradiction is straightforward: both benefiting from rate cut expectations and risk appetite, US stocks have already taken off while crypto remains grounded. Institutions are indeed slowly accumulating through ETFs, but hot money in the market clearly believes more in the AI stock story. For Bitcoin to outperform again, relying solely on ETF support is not enough; either liquidity must truly shift, or the profit effect from US stocks must spill over. In this new high feast, crypto is just sipping the soup. #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 #意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH Italy's largest bank recently made a big move: it cut its holding of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) by 94% and tripled its position in the Ethereum staking ETF (ETHB). The core logic behind this is simple: rather than holding Bitcoin that generates no interest and just waiting, it's better to buy Ethereum that automatically "lays eggs" every day. Let me share my own experience, and you'll understand. When I used to trade crypto, I was a pure "spot trader," fully invested in Bitcoin, thinking I just needed to hold and wait for appreciation. But after more than half a year of sideways or even declining markets, watching my account shrink daily made me very anxious because this asset didn't generate a penny of interest. Later, I realized and switched part of my position to Ethereum. Although its price might not surge wildly, staking offers an annualized yield! It's like buying a stock that doesn't move much in price but pays you dividends every month. Holding such an asset with a "safety net" feels much more reassuring. Now seeing this traditional Italian bank doing exactly the same thing shows that even financial giants find holding Bitcoin "dry" and boring. So how exactly are they operating? Actually, they haven't completely abandoned Bitcoin; they just cut the IBIT product but still hold other Bitcoin ETFs. This indicates they think IBIT's cost-effectiveness is no longer attractive. But on the Ethereum side, they are buying the "staking version." Ethereum now acts like a landlord collecting rent: you stake your coins, and it automatically generates income for you. For banks seeking stability, spending the same money on a product that can both appreciate and pay interest is definitely much more cost-effective than buying pure spot. With big banks entering, the game has changed. Going forward, whoever can provide institutions with stable, predictable "interest" will take their real money. Just telling stories and waiting for appreciation no longer works. It's not just about making money from price gains but also earning continuous interest. [Pharaoh's Market Watch] The agreement is about to be signed, yet oil prices keep falling. Is this good news or bad news? Pharaoh says directly: the agreement is indeed in sight, but the final step before official implementation is still missing. This drop in oil prices reflects expectations, not reality. The US and Iran are close to reaching a 60-day temporary navigation agreement, reportedly approved by Iranian leadership, including northern route entry, southern route exit, 30 days of mine clearance, and 60 days of toll exemption. Once the news broke, Brent fell below $80, WTI dropped below $76, and oil prices plunged over 5% for two consecutive days. But the agreement hasn't been signed yet, and the disagreements are bigger than expected. Iran denies direct talks with the US, emphasizing negotiations are only with Oman. The US and Iran are still wrestling over who will concede first, whether fees apply, and control of the strait. Moreover, the US military loudly declared the southern route "remains open," and Bassett claimed "it could be signed today or tomorrow," but as of today, nothing has been finalized. Pharaoh is familiar with this script: once the good news is fully priced in, it turns into bad news. If the deal falls through, the rebound will be even stronger. For Bitcoin, this is an indirect impact. Oil price drop → inflation expectations cool → easing rate hike pressure → risk assets catch a breather. Bitcoin bounced from 63,000 back to around 65,000, following this logic. But since the agreement hasn't been signed, the geopolitical premium on oil remains, and the market could reverse sharply at any harsh statement. Remember, good trades are waited for, not chased. Only the agreement's implementation counts. Before it lands, the news will fluctuate wildly, so watching more and acting less is always best! Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't get lost! $BTC $ETH $SPCX #临时通航协议待落地，油价风险尚未反转 Latest news, Bitcoin has a tried-and-true old rule that might be signaling a buy again. This strategy closely follows Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, and historically, following it has yielded returns as high as 34 times. The specific approach is: buy about 500 days before the halving, then sell around 500 days after the halving. But now the situation is a bit different. The influx of spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional funds is quietly rewriting the market script, and the magic of this old strategy may be significantly diminished. $BTC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到一、行情复盘：7月深度回调，财报前置资金抢跑修复闪迪SNDK自6月高点一路回撤，单月最大跌幅接近47%，市场集体担忧AI存储景气周期见顶、NAND闪存价格松动，叠加高位获利盘集中兑现，股价从1694美元高位最低砸至971美元区间，泡沫充分消化。进入8月，随着Q4财报预期升温，资金提前进场博弈业绩超预期，走出连续V型修复：美股正股连续两日大涨，8月4日单日涨幅10.84%，收盘1427.62美元，换手率突破10%，成交金额超200亿，短线做多情绪全面回暖。对应链上映射代币xSNDK同步联动，现价1334.42，24小时上涨6.34%，从低点971.51快速拉升，短期站稳5日、10日均线，但MACD仍处于零轴下方，仅属于大跌后的技术性修复，并未彻底扭转中期空头结构。二、财报核心前瞻：市场一致预期业绩爆炸，三大核心观测指标美东时间8月5日美股收盘后，闪迪将发布2026财年第四季度完整财报，同步召开业绩电话会，这是本轮存储板块情绪修复的核心催化剂。 1. 营收与利润预期公司官方指引区间营收77.5-82.5亿美元，市场分析师一致预期83.95亿美元，同比暴涨341%；调整后每股收益

Orbit Topic Sitemap