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Ant Warehouse Test Long and Short Dual Opening Gain List Phase 1
You can see that the altcoin gain list basically goes straight up without looking back, a straight line that makes you question your life, chasing longs fears the peak, shorting fears liquidation, getting hit on both sides.
But the end point of altcoins is always zero, this is an iron rule.
Core idea: Mid-range historical price + large gains for dual long and short opening
The logic is very simple:
- Open long at mid-mountain to capture the last segment of the peak profit
- At the same time open short, betting on the inevitable sharp drop after a surge
- Close whichever side hits the target first, keep holding the other
This phase test targets:
🔴 BICO (Layer1&2 concept)
- Started around 0.016, surged to a high of 0.02929, gain over 80%
- Currently pulled back to around 0.027, 15-minute MACD has turned down
- Dual long and short opening range: 0.025-0.027
- Long target: 0.030-0.032 (near previous high)
- Short target: 0.020-0.022 (near launch platform)
🔴 UB
- Started at 0.065, surged to a high of 0.211, gain over 220%
- Has crashed from the high to 0.147, 4-hour MACD death cross obvious
- Dual long and short opening range: 0.13-0.15
- Long target: 0.18-0.20 (rebound near previous high)
- Short target: 0.08-0.10 (return to initial rise area)
Risk control rules:
1. Ant Warehouse trial, total position no more than 5%
2. Take profit on whichever side hits the target first, set breakeven stop loss on the other
3. If extreme one-sided market, control total loss within 1% stop loss
4. Only trade top 10 gainers, small market cap, new coins with stories
Why choose these two?
BICO just entered the gain list with heat still on, possibly one last surge; UB has started to collapse but rebound can come anytime, just right to verify the strategy on both sides.
Will continue to update the battle situation, to see if this "eat both ends" idea can survive in the altcoin casino. $BICO
$UB
$ETH
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #On the eve of SanDisk's earnings report, HBF and storage shortages spark heated discussion Earnings data is clearly good, yet $SNDK was still hammered after hours
The after-hours move of $SNDK has left many people confused.
It peaked at 1483.62, then was slammed down to 1236.23, a maximum drawdown of 16.7%.
Looking solely at the earnings report, revenue, profit, and gross margin all exceeded expectations, and they even announced a 10 billion buyback.
But in the US stock market, the hype is never about what has already happened, but about future growth.
My view:
This move is a valuation kill, not that the company is directly broken.
There is a 35% chance of a short-term recovery rebound, but a 65% chance it will continue to grind lower to digest the high-level trapped positions. Don't rush to bottom-fish now.
Let's clarify the reasons behind this:
1. There are two layers of expectations. The earnings just beat the analysts' publicly written numbers, but AI storage had surged sharply before, so institutions had even higher expectations. The next quarter guidance didn't keep up, so the high valuation naturally couldn't hold.
2. The good news had already been priced in. Before the earnings came out, the main rally was already over. The earnings release was an opportunity for old money to exit.
3. Sector sentiment combined with poor after-hours liquidity is a trap. Other companies in the same sector also reported earnings below expectations, leading to a collective valuation cut. After-hours trading depth is poor, so it doesn't take a large sell order to cause a slippage of over ten points.
Even if there is a small rebound later, with so many trapped chips above, the upside space won't be large. For major earnings reports, try to avoid trading during after-hours when liquidity is very poor.
My real trades:
All 10x manual short positions have been fully closed with profit, opened at 1456.82, closed at 1309.37, profit 136.10 USDT, return 100.45%.
The 5x short grid is still running, range 1138.84‑1708.28, cumulative return 23.38%, no new manual positions will be opened.
Is this pullback a golden opportunity, or is this the turning point for the AI storage rally? Fundamental Research Report $NOT / Notcoin (TeleFi/Memecoin) $0.00 (24h +0.16%)
Core Judgment: Notcoin ($NOT) comprehensive score 19/100, rating mainly relies on narrative. Breaking down into three layers, the company team resources are tight, protocol network usage evidence is weak, and token value transmission still needs observation.
Project Overview: Notcoin (token $NOT), TeleFi/Memecoin sector. Leading TON Tap-to-Earn. Competitors include DOGS, CATIZEN. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear market. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: main evidence from announcements, no verifiable usage yet. Latest version not found, 0 valid commits in last 90 days.
User level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $3.10M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income not disclosed, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 0 valid commits in 90 days, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing see PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales see whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration see API/SDK access evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo wall are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 102,452,755,868.5205, circulating 99,429,447,866.9074 (97.0%), FDV $35.57M, next unlock not disclosed (percentage of circulation not disclosed), no clear buyback and burn annualized. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap, Notcoin $34.52M, DOGS undisclosed, CATIZEN undisclosed. FDV, Notcoin $35.57M, DOGS undisclosed, CATIZEN undisclosed. Annualized revenue, Notcoin undisclosed, DOGS undisclosed, CATIZEN undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users, Notcoin undisclosed, DOGS undisclosed, CATIZEN undisclosed. Data based on public snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation, circulating market cap $34.52M, FDV $35.57M, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic view $34.52M at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final qualitative: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 19/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap relatively reasonable or low compared to fundamentals, FDV close to MC, no major unlock, sell pressure controllable. Risks to note: short-term large unlock dump, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next watch these numbers: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Public data inference, not investment advice. Core indicator changes over 30% invalidate conclusions.
This is the fundamental overview, the rest is up to the market.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitThe short position at 1331.77 was fully closed for profit as planned the moment SNDK fell below 1350. This trade was held from 1331 down to a low of 1236, nearly a $100 profit range, executed perfectly.
Now let's look at the new signals from the two charts:
1. SNDK (SanDisk) — Panic selling has occurred, but don't rush to reverse positions
· Current price 1249, down 11.11%, with a low of 1236.23. This drop exceeds the post-earnings expected "-8%" decline, representing a sentiment sell-off after the positive earnings were disproven.
· However, note that the short-term drop is too large (from 1468 down to 1236), the deviation rate has widened. EMA20 is at 1277, EMA10 at 1257, and the current price is firmly suppressed by the moving averages. After taking profit on shorts, it is not recommended to immediately chase shorts here, as an oversold rebound repair is likely.
· If there is a rebound tonight to the 1260-1280 range (near EMA10 or EMA20 resistance), a small short position can be tried, but the position size must be halved and stop loss tightened above 1300.
2. ETH — See-saw effect emerges
· ETH current price 1910, rising against the trend by +1.96%, with a low of 1855 not broken. This indicates that some funds withdrawn from the storage sector (AMD, SNDK) are moving into mainstream crypto assets for hedging.
· Short-term resistance is at 1928 (today's high), also an EMA dense area. If SNDK continues to make new lows tonight, ETH will find it difficult to independently break through 1930 and will likely retest support at 1880-1890.
Follow-up strategy:
Since all shorts are closed, cash is on hand now. After the US market opens tonight, if SNDK cannot reclaim 1260, Lao Gao will consider re-entering shorts with a small position on a weak rebound but will not go heavy. If volume pushes it back above 1300, the short structure is temporarily broken and will rest completely.
This wave of judgment and profit-taking was decisive. Don't bottom-fish just because it has dropped a lot; once the post-earnings direction is established, the trend will last at least several days.
Lao Gao has finished speaking. Think it over carefully.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Don't treat the entire crypto market as a machine that rises and falls in tandem. Over the past year, I tracked 45 tokens and ultimately found they actually live in six disconnected rooms: DeFi, Layer 1, RWA, Layer 2, AI, and Store of Value. Each room has its own flow of funds and narrative logic. $ETH returned to $1907 today, up 2.16%, $BTC hovered around $64,553, while $SOL was only $73.94. What do these numbers indicate? Funds are not evenly distributed across all assets; they flow more like tides toward the most imaginative docks of the moment. For example, in the RWA sector, institutional funds are moving traditional assets on-chain, and this incremental market is worth trillions; On the other hand, the AI narrative keeps heating up, and the volatility of tokens like $TAO and $RENDER often operates independently of the broader market. So don't wait for a "knockoff season" for a broad rally. In the past, scenes where all coins followed after the big pie rose may become increasingly rare. A more practical approach is to clearly understand what is happening on each track and which room your position is betting on. I've seen people hold their positions when $AVAX dropped to $6.64, and others seized the opportunity to rotate around $0.69 in $SUI, with completely different outcomes. My logic is simple: diversify the portfolio across different sectors to reduce the risk of concentration in a single sector, while adjusting the ratio based on capital rotation signals. #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #AMDBTC has risen reassuringly, but the altcoins have quietly changed their script? 🫧 Have you noticed that lately everyone is talking about Layer 1 and AI, but the ones who really dare to heavily invest in their accounts are still those familiar faces? I reviewed the recent market structure and felt a stronger feeling: this rally is not a broad bull market, but rather a continuous "event repricing." Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying a coin is about to skyrocket, but rather that the market's valuation anchor is shifting from "narrative hype" to "actual cash flow expectations." Looking at the surface, BTC is still the anchor, firmly lying in the storage value zone. But in the underlying structure, capital is actually doing three things: - First, repricing leading DeFi protocols like AAVE and UNI, so they're no longer "governance tokens" but are being traded as financial stocks with real income. - Second, attitudes toward the RWA sector have changed, shifting from concept speculation to seeing who can truly connect traditional assets on-chain. The divergence between ONDO and PENDLE is proof of this. - Third, Layer 2 platforms have been largely neglected. Except for a few with clear token issuance expectations, most are declining, indicating the market has become desensitized to the "scaling narrative." If you only focus on BTC's ups and downs, you'll feel like years are peaceful. But looking back, ETH is actually in a very delicate position: it is both the leader of Layer 1 and the value capture diverted by Layer 2I am Lao Gao. AMD's earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock fell 8% after hours. An old script is playing out again: good performance does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise.
AMD's earnings figures
Revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $1.66, both higher than market expectations. Data center business revenue was $6.7 billion, up 107% year-over-year, accounting for 58% of the company's total revenue, with a gross margin maintained at 56%. Q3 revenue guidance is about $13 billion, higher than the market average expectation but below some institutions' higher forecasts. After the earnings release, the stock fell more than 8% after hours.
Why did it fall despite exceeding expectations?
Market expectations had been pulled up too high in advance, and the guidance did not further surpass them, so the market had already priced in higher expectations. When the "beat" is not big enough, it is interpreted as "not good enough." AMD's problem is that high growth has already been priced in.
Impact on SanDisk
AMD's 8% drop after hours directly pressures SanDisk's earnings tonight. The storage sector has seen huge gains recently; SanDisk rose from 998 to 1468, with expectations fully priced in. AMD's movement is a signal that if earnings only meet expectations rather than significantly beat them, profit-taking will be very intense.
How to handle the 1331.77 short position
Set a stop loss above 1550. Do not heavily bet on direction before earnings. The options market implies post-earnings volatility of about 15% to 21%. If the directional judgment is wrong, the stop loss is the bottom line. Take profits in two batches: if after earnings the price falls back to the 1400 to 1420 range, close half; if it falls below 1350, exit completely. If after earnings there is a volume breakout above 1550, it means the short structure is broken, exit unconditionally. Earnings are the biggest variable; do not heavily bet on direction before earnings.
Lao Gao is done. Think it over. #AMD earnings beat, growth already priced in? $ETH $SNDK $BTC SpaceX's stock price fell below its $135 IPO price just over a month after listing, with its market value evaporating by more than $1 trillion from its peak!
The main reason is not a single black swan event, but rather:
The extremely high valuation at IPO + scarcity premium created by low float shares were quickly corrected by fundamentals—Starlink is profitable, but Starship and AI continue to burn cash heavily, resulting in overall losses.
Starship engine failures, bond issuance, and lock-up expiration expectations are just accelerators.
Is the classic super IPO script playing out again?
What do you think? Is the current price an opportunity or is there still room to fall?
#SpaceX #SPCX #USStocks #IPOunderperformance Gold has taken off
Tonight, the US small nonfarm payroll data was significantly below expectations. The market forecast dropped from 89,000 to 65,000, but the actual number was only 44,000. Gold immediately took off on the spot, breaking through the $4,300 mark, reaching the highest point in six weeks.
There are multiple positive factors behind this surge.
Previously, gold was firmly suppressed because three men jointly pushed the US dollar index high: Trump stirred up Middle East geopolitical tensions, Bassett was responsible for lowering US Treasury yields, and Walsh was in charge of the hawkish Federal Reserve. Now the situation has changed—Trump has finally eased on the Middle East issue, and a US-Iran peace agreement is likely; Bassett turned to firefighting the yen, lifting the yen and pushing the US dollar index down; Walsh stumbled at the July FOMC meeting, with verbal rate hike talk proving empty, damaging Wall Street’s trust in the Fed’s credibility.
Additionally, the US debt is about to surpass the $40 trillion mark, and in September there is the risk of a government shutdown. These are all blows to US national credit and dollar hegemony. Gold’s rise is very reasonable.
Whether gold will soar or slowly build a base and rebound mainly depends on whether the US dollar index can stay below 100 and the subsequent actions of the three men mentioned above. Trump should stop flip-flopping on the Middle East issue, what tricks Bassett has after firefighting the yen, and how Walsh will speak at the global central bank annual meeting on August 27 will all have important impacts on the next phase of the US dollar index.
I will personally continue to track these key variables. The gold window has opened, but new investors should not heavily invest; a family allocation of 5-10% is enough. AI remains the main theme at present.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks. If BTC falls back to 50,000,000 USD in the second half of the year, is it possible for CORE to drop to 0.01U?
Under the scenario where BTC drops to 50,000 USD, CORE dropping to 0.01U is a 【low-probability extreme scenario, but theoretically possible; under normal declines, it is very difficult to reach 0.01, with the most likely extreme support range being 0.014 to 0.017】.
1. Basic Data Anchors
1. CORE historical lowest price: 0.015U (created in July 2026), has not been effectively broken since;
2. Total supply 2.1 billion tokens, current circulation about 1.246 billion tokens;
- Price 0.015U: circulating market cap ≈ 20.93 million USD
- Price 0.01U: circulating market cap ≈ 12.46 million USD, fully diluted market cap 21 million USD
3. Current price range: around 0.020 to 0.022U.
2. Scenario Analysis: BTC drops to 50,000 USDT, CORE trend
Scenario 1: Mild correction (highest probability)
BTC gradually declines from the current range, slowly falling to 50,000, representing a deep mid-bull market correction without systemic panic selling.
- Historical pattern: second-tier public chain altcoins generally fall more than BTC; BTC retraces about 25%, mid-level altcoins usually retrace 45% to 60%
- Estimation: 0.021 → extreme dip 0.014 to 0.016U
👉Conclusion: It is difficult to break below the previous low of 0.015, 0.01U is out of reach.
Scenario 2: Systemic panic selling (low probability, necessary condition to trigger 0.01)
Multiple negative factors must resonate simultaneously; missing any makes 0.01 unlikely:
1. BTC rapidly crashes to 50,000, causing a chain reaction of leveraged liquidations, liquidity dries up across the altcoin market;
2. BTCFi sector collectively devalues, Stacks and Merlin both plunge, capital collectively exits the BTC ecosystem;
3. CORE faces negative catalysts: large team/foundation token unlocks, on-chain TVL continuously declines, buyback plans fall short of expectations;
4. Exchange order books thin out, buy orders sparse, a small amount of sell orders can cause extreme price spikes.
Only when all these resonate can there be a brief spike touching 0.01U, and it is difficult to stay below 0.01 for long; once panic eases, a quick rebound will occur.
Scenario 3: Deep bear market begins (extremely low probability)
50,000 is not a phase low, BTC continues downward, market enters a prolonged crypto winter.
At this time, all narrative-driven altcoins continue to decline, 0.01 will be effectively broken, possibly testing even lower prices.
3. Multiple supports restricting CORE from falling to 0.01 USD
1. Previous historical low of 0.015 forms a psychological chip bottom
A large amount of bottom-fishing capital entered around 0.017 during this decline, providing passive buy support;
2. Project narrative baseline: official continuous promotion of buyback plans, foundation potentially supporting the price in extreme low ranges (though not guaranteed to execute);
3. Sector value baseline: BTCFi remains the core narrative for the next bull market; a complete zeroing or market cap dropping below 12 million USD is overly pessimistic pricing;
4. Maximum downside risk factors (favoring breaking support and hitting 0.01)
1. Chip structure: whale holdings concentrated, panic selling by large holders disregarding price;
2. Continuous linear token unlocks, long-term inflationary selling pressure;
3. Sector competition worsening, Babylon and BTC Layer 2 Rollups continuously diverting funds, CORE ecosystem lacks blockbuster applications;
4. No stable cash flow, purely relying on market sentiment, no fundamental support in a bear market.
5. Practical objective references
1. Normal market expectation: BTC falls to 50,000, CORE extreme support 0.015 to 0.017 range;
2. Extreme panic spike expectation: very small probability of momentarily testing 0.01, but this is an extremely rare low point and should not be considered a guaranteed bottom target; do not pre-place orders to defend 0.01 waiting, most likely you will not get it;
3. Key observation watershed: 0.015 historical previous low
- If it breaks below 0.015 effectively and cannot recover, it indicates bearish strength far exceeds expectations, greatly increasing the probability of hitting 0.01;
- If 0.015 holds, it is very unlikely to see 0.01 in this round of correction.August 6 | Turbulence hides changes, the most stable approach now
The current core state of the market in one sentence: macro bottoming, lack of volume on the floor, very fast capital rotation.
BTC continues to oscillate within a box, washing back and forth between 62300–64500. The biggest feature of Bitcoin now is that it has no independent trend, completely tied to US tech stock sentiment and US Treasury yields.
The external environment is not bad, with slight ETF inflows, so it can’t fall much; but there is no incremental hot money entering, so it can’t rise much either, a typical grinding oscillation.
There is a very key hidden change in the current market:
Recent rises are more driven by contract leverage, spot buy orders are very restrained.
The biggest problem with leveraged markets is: poor sustainability, frequent shakeouts, and once sentiment loosens, the drop is very fast.
Simple practical strategy:
1. No operation in the middle of the box
No room up or down, opening positions is just working for fees.
2. Do not chase longs at upper resistance
If 64500–65000 is not broken, all rallies are bull traps and oscillations.
3. Do not short if key support holds
62300 is the short-term strength/weakness line; if it holds, the range-bound oscillation continues.
4. Prioritize position control at this stage
August is overall a choppy shakeout, very few one-sided trends, heavy positions are easily repeatedly harvested back and forth.
Logic:
1. RWA: Data keeps hitting new highs, but coin price doesn’t move; the core issue is severe token dilution, suitable only for long-term observation, not short-term speculation.
2. AI chains, AI Agents: hottest topics but least implementation, pure sentiment speculation, volatile spikes and crashes, beginners should avoid.
3. Layer 2 & new public chains: have real ecological progress but completely follow the market, no independent trend.
4. DEX and real yield tracks: currently the only "profitable logic" tracks, relatively resistant to downturns in choppy markets.
Summary:
The crypto market now is neither bear nor bull, it’s a transitional bottoming phase.
Opportunities are all structural and rotational, no broad rallies.
The most profitable approach in turbulence is not frequent trading,
but: waiting for breakouts, volume surges, and certainty.
Stay alive, control positions, don’t chase recklessly — this is the strongest trading strategy this month.
$BTC $ETH Added some margin
Hope I can survive tonight😭
What exactly caused the pump?
Hasn't it all been negative news recently?
I reviewed a bunch of data
This wave isn't because the negative news disappeared
But because the market suddenly started trading on "cooling rate hike expectations"
US July ADP employment increased by only 44,000
About 25,000 less than expected
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell accordingly
Market bets on a September rate hike
Dropped from 68% on Monday to 55%
Now it’s back to a familiar script
The worse the employment data
The better the liquidity expectations
Crypto pumps first, then talks.
There’s also some easing expectations in the US-Iran situation
Oil prices fell back
Energy inflation concerns have temporarily cooled
So although there’s been a lot of negative news recently
The two main things suppressing risk assets
Interest rates and oil prices
Have both eased a bit.
——
$ETH Ethereum is clearly stronger than Bitcoin this wave
Pulled from around 1820 all the way to 1927
Hourly chart has climbed back above multiple moving averages
1900 is now the short-term bull-bear dividing line
As long as it holds above 1900
It will continue to test 1928 to 1936
If it really holds 1936
It might continue to test around 1950
This is very unfriendly to my short positions😭
But this rally currently looks more like expectation repair
Not yet a confirmed trend reversal
Ethereum spot ETF had net inflows of $53.1 million on August 4
Continued net inflows of $5.6 million on August 5
Not particularly huge
But at least institutions haven’t fled with the bad news.
I’m only watching two levels now
If it falls below 1890
The rebound will be considered clearly weakening
If it breaks above 1936 and doesn’t come down
My forced liquidation level is around 1976
Really can’t keep being stubborn
——
$BTC short-term is still capped at $65,000
But every dip below is met with buying
Because ETFs are flowing back in
$170 million net inflow on August 3
$211.5 million net inflow on August 4
$47.6 million inflow on August 5
Money coming in for three consecutive days
Shorts naturally find it hard to smash through.
If Bitcoin breaks above $65,000
Ethereum will likely be dragged up for another run
If it falls back below $63,800
This rebound might start to cool off
——
$SNDK SanDisk’s earnings this time are actually very impressive
Quarterly revenue $8.97 billion
Up 51% quarter-over-quarter
Non-GAAP EPS $39.25
Full-year revenue growth 175%
Also added $14 billion buyback authorization
Fundamentals can’t be considered bad.
But the stock still fell
Because the market had already priced in AI storage price hikes
And data center demand hype
The company’s next quarter revenue guidance
Is only $10.3 to $10.8 billion
EPS guidance $44 to $46
The data is good
But not exaggerated enough to further raise market expectations
So it turned into a typical earnings beat sell-off.
SanDisk’s long-term logic remains
AI data centers and NAND price hikes aren’t over
But short-term valuation is too high
A post-earnings expectation reset is normal
——
This pump isn’t a big positive
More like weak employment data
Lower rate hike probability
ETF inflows
Plus short covering combined
The real direction will be decided by the August 7 nonfarm payrolls
If data is weak
The market may continue to trade liquidity easing
If data is too strong
Rate hike expectations will return
My 50 ETH short
Tonight I fear not a slow rise
But a sudden spike piercing 1936
Market makers, enough already
Let me survive until nonfarm first😭
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 Yesterday (8/5), the US stock market showed mixed trends. The Dow Jones hit a record closing at 54,349 with five consecutive gains, but the S&P 500 fell slightly by 0.17%, breaking its four-day winning streak, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.83%.
The main drag was Alphabet, which plunged more than 4% due to a major shakeup in Google's AI division, with Chief Scientist Jeff Dean leaving to start his own venture, coupled with lingering concerns from last week's earnings about negative free cash flow.
Nvidia, Amgen, and Disney bucked the trend and strengthened. SpaceX's first earnings report showed revenue up 92% year-over-year and AI revenue soaring 247%, but capital expenditures were heavy, causing the stock to plunge over 8% intraday, closing near 118. Today (8/6), it will face insider lockup expirations, so volatility is expected to be significant.
In crude oil, Brent has fallen for three consecutive days, breaking below the key support level of 80 that we've been discussing, closing in the high 70s. The main reason is market bets on a 60-day temporary agreement soon to be reached between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said more news would come within 48 hours. Short positions can be partially taken off the table with a stop loss at 82. It is recommended to wait and watch for the official agreement before catching any rebound.
Bitcoin and Ethereum showed little change, consolidating within the ranges of 64,000-64,500 and their original zones, respectively. Going forward, keep a close eye on: today's SpaceX lockup expiration along with earnings from ConocoPhillips and Airbnb; tomorrow's nonfarm payroll data, which is a major event—last month’s surprise miss means if this data again disappoints, it will directly affect Fed rate cut expectations; and possible clearer news on the Strait of Hormuz agreement in the next day or two, which will likely cause notable volatility.Bitcoin cycle bottom pattern:
Historical data:
2018: 19,800 → 3,200 (-84%)
2022: 69,000 → 15,500 (-78%)
2026: 126,000 → Target 40,000 (-68%)
Current status:
Has dropped about 50%
If the historical rhythm repeats, there may still be room to fall
Bottoms usually form when the market is at its most desperate
The 40,000 range is Galaxy's conservative estimate for the bottom of this bear market Before the SNDK earnings report, the options market has already scripted a bearish scenario: will breaking below 1400 accelerate the decline?
Conclusion first:
The $SNDK earnings report has not yet been released, but the options market has already set up a bearish structure in advance.
This does not necessarily mean the stock will fall after the earnings, but the current market situation is very clear: 1400 is the short-term boundary between bulls and bears. Once it is effectively broken, negative Gamma, bullish position withdrawals, and overly high expectations may simultaneously amplify selling pressure.
Breaking below 1400 could cause volatility to spiral out of control.
SNDK has already dropped near 1400, and between 1400 and 1500 there is a large accumulation of Call positions, forming a clear Call Wall.
What’s more troublesome is that below 1400, the market is gradually entering a negative Gamma zone.
In a negative Gamma environment, market makers need to maintain Delta neutrality by buying as the stock price rises and selling as it falls. In other words, hedging funds do not suppress volatility; they may actually trade in the direction of the price movement.
If the stock price cannot hold 1400 after the earnings, selling may not just be a one-time emotional reaction but could trigger continuous mechanical selling. The lower the price falls, the greater the hedging pressure.
Around 1370 could become a short-term magnet.
The Max Pain and Gamma Flip of near-term options are both concentrated near 1370.
Max Pain is not a guaranteed target price, and Gamma Flip alone cannot predict rises or falls, but the fact that both key points fall near 1370 indicates this is currently the most sensitive area in the options structure.
If the earnings merely "meet expectations" without strong new buying pushing the stock back above 1400, 1370 is likely to be the first level the market tests.
Conversely, if SNDK can rely on strong guidance to break through 1500, the Call Wall may be breached, and negative Gamma could also amplify the upside, creating a short squeeze after earnings.
The problem is, the current market is not betting on this outcome in advance.
A large number of Calls are being closed out; old bulls are reducing exposure.
A more noteworthy signal today is the large volume of bullish options being closed.
This is completely different from new bullish option purchases.
New Calls represent investors willing to continue paying premiums to bet on a rise; Call closures are closer to old bulls taking profits or proactively reducing risk exposure before earnings.
Looking at Call closures alone cannot directly prove that funds are shorting. But in the context of pre-earnings, the stock price breaking key levels, and high implied volatility, it at least indicates one thing:
Bulls are unwilling to continue betting on the earnings with the same positions.
Currently, the at-the-money Straddle implies post-earnings volatility of about 15% to 16%. The market knows this earnings report will bring big volatility, but from position changes, confidence in the upside is declining.
The real danger is not poor performance but overly high expectations.
Two cautious signals have also appeared on the fundamentals side.
First, partner Kioxia surged at open but quickly retreated. Kioxia’s movement cannot directly determine SNDK’s earnings result, but the two companies are highly correlated in NAND prices, capacity utilization, and joint venture profits. Kioxia’s failure to maintain strength at least indicates the market is not preemptively pricing in NAND prosperity.
Second, Wall Street expectations have clearly outpaced company guidance.
Currently, market EPS consensus is around 35, while the company’s previous guidance was about 30 to 33. In other words, investors are not really expecting SNDK to meet its own targets but that the company must significantly exceed them.
Under this expectation structure, meeting targets may equal falling short, and slight beats may not be enough to drive the stock price up.
This logic is exactly the same as when storage stocks collectively crashed in July: fundamentals did not suddenly deteriorate, but the market had already priced in the best outcomes.
What really matters after earnings is whether 1400 can hold.
The bearish logic before the SNDK earnings is already quite complete:
The negative Gamma zone is approaching, there is a Call Wall between 1400 and 1500, many bullish positions have been closed early, Kioxia surged then retreated, and Wall Street profit expectations are clearly higher than company guidance.
But this is still a trading structure, not the earnings result itself.
If SNDK can deliver significantly better-than-expected profits, continue to raise guidance, and prove that enterprise SSD and NAND prices are still accelerating, a short squeeze above 1500 may occur.
If the earnings only meet expectations or next quarter’s guidance does not continue to rise significantly, once 1400 is lost, 1370 may only be the first support.
For this earnings report, bulls need more than "not bad"; they need a report strong enough to break through the Call Wall.The $2.6 billion myth ends, ai16z falls, breaking the illusion of "AI token issuance equals value"
The ai16z project, which once ignited the crypto AI Agent craze, has officially come to an end.
Founder Shaw Walters announced the project termination and the closure of the Eliza OS Foundation, stating there will be no token buyback, and token holders must handle their holdings on their own.
This project, once highly anticipated by the market, ultimately ended with its token value nearly zero and the founder leaving disappointed.
ai16z launched crowdfunding in October 2024 with about $75,000, and in less than three months, its market cap surged to $2.6 billion, driving the AI Agent token sector to nearly $10 billion.
However, there had long been controversy over whether its core Agent truly operated autonomously. At the time, the market focused more on price and narrative, while product authenticity was relegated to a secondary position.
The most ironic part is that by 2026, AI Agents were truly deployed at scale, but the winners were not the projects that initially issued tokens the most.
OpenAI, Anthropic, and OpenRouter generate real revenue through subscriptions, APIs, and cloud services, without needing tokens or relying on DAOs; user payments and product usage are the most direct consensus.
What’s more noteworthy is that although the ai16z token failed, the Eliza open-source framework is still being updated, and companies are seeking cooperation. This indicates that the real value may lie in the code, developers, and service capabilities, rather than the financial assets attached to the project.
The end of ai16z does not mean "crypto + AI" has completely failed; what truly collapsed is the model of "wrapping AI concepts in tokens to achieve long-term appreciation."
Projects that survive in the future must coordinate tokens with real resources such as computing power, data, or network services. The AI narrative continues, but the market has moved from hype to validating revenue, users, and actual value.
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 Brothers, XSNDK dropped 11% today, currently priced at $1250. The underlying stock SanDisk delivered a stunning Q4 earnings report but plunged immediately after hours—the issue is not the performance, but the expectations.
Earnings: The numbers are indeed explosive
SanDisk's FY2026 Q4 data completely crushed expectations:
Revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, exceeding the expected $8.6 billion
Adjusted EPS $39.25, far surpassing the expected $34.37
Gross margin 84.6%, expanding from last quarter's 78.4%
Data center revenue $2.98 billion, up 103% quarter-over-quarter, soaring 1298% year-over-year
Full-year revenue $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year
Also added a $14 billion buyback plan. No flaws in the performance.
But the market always looks at "the next quarter"
The problem lies in the guidance:
Q1 revenue guidance $10.3–10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion, below market expectation of $11.16 billion
Adjusted EPS guidance $44–46, midpoint $45, also slightly below the expected $45.58
The market logic is harsh: the stock price has already surged 857% (from $40 at the February split to over $1,600), fully pricing in "earnings beat + guidance raise" expectations. When Q4 results meet expectations but Q1 guidance is "not good enough," the market chooses to exit first.
Referencing a similar case in the AI hardware sector in July 2026, when the stock price has severely priced in fundamentals, once the earnings report loses its surprise, valuation will quickly correct.
Key price levels
XSNDK, as SanDisk's tokenized stock (supported 1:1 by physical stock custody from xStocks), is highly correlated with the underlying stock:
Resistance: 1300–1350,
Core resistance: 1427–1445,
Mid-term strong resistance: 1515–1540;
Support below: 1240–1270,
Deeper support: 1160–1190,
Extreme support: 1000. The 1350–1450 range is a high-volume oscillation zone; a breakout above 1515 or a drop below 1280 will be a clear signal.
SanDisk remains one of the strongest AI storage plays—84.6% gross margin, data center revenue up 1298%, 8 long-term contracts securing supply for years, $15.5 billion buyback ammunition. But no matter how solid the fundamentals, when the stock price rises from $40 to $1,600, market expectations are maxed out, and any "imperfection" will be punished. Post-earnings price fluctuations are a correction of expectation gaps, not a refutation of logic.
Personal market analysis and information compilation, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $XSNDK
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
#特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 Short sellers face a "massacre"! $BTC heading straight for $68,000?
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the crypto market contracts was about $210 million, with short liquidations reaching as high as $142 million, while long liquidations were only $67.3778 million — short sellers lost more than twice as much as long holders.
This rally clearly has a "short squeeze" characteristic. When short positions are liquidated en masse, it triggers passive buy orders to close positions, further driving up the price and creating a short-term positive feedback loop of "price rise → liquidation → continued rise."
From a sentiment perspective, this is bullish for BTC's short-term trend but also reveals that the market had accumulated a significant amount of bearish positions previously.
However, it is important to remain cautious: a rally driven by liquidations does not mean that spot funds have fully returned. After a large number of shorts are cleared, the "fuel" for further price pushes on derivatives will also diminish. If subsequent spot trading volume, ETF net inflows, and institutional buying do not effectively take over, BTC may still return to consolidation or even retest lower support after the surge.
The key zone now is $64,000–$65,000:
· Holding above $65,000 with volume could lead to a short-term challenge of $67,000–$68,000;
· Failure to break through and a drop below $63,000 could lead to a retest of $62,000, and in extreme cases, down to $60,000.
Overall, the short-term trend has indeed shifted from bearish to bullish, but this looks more like a strong short squeeze rebound rather than a confirmed new bull market.
Whether BTC can sustain the upward momentum depends on whether real buying interest steps in after the liquidation wave to fuel the next leg up.
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard
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📌 Key Takeaways (Summary Version)
· Liquidation data: $210 million liquidated in 24 hours across the market, shorts $142 million vs longs $67 million, short losses more than twice longs.
· Nature of the rally: Typical "short squeeze" driven by passive short position liquidations, creating short-term positive feedback.
· Sentiment: Short-term bullish but beware of derivatives "fuel" running out without follow-through.
· Key price levels:
· Resistance above: $65,000 (holding could target $67,000–$68,000);
· Support below: $63,000 (break could test $62,000, extreme $60,000).
· Core judgment: Currently a strong short squeeze, not a new bull market start; sustainability depends on spot, ETF, and institutional buying follow-through.
· Trading advice: Watch for volume breakout signals, be cautious chasing highs, wait for confirmation of real buying interest. 📉 Uniswap's latest move feels like a strategic misstep.
Instead of simply earning fees from growing launchpad volume across the ecosystem, Uni is now competing directly with the very platforms that were generating activity.
By concentrating liquidity into a single launchpad, it risks reducing competition, weakening organic price discovery, and potentially hurting the meme coin ecosystem as a whole.
From a volume and fee-generation perspective, the higher-EV move may have been to stay neutral and let the ecosystem create its own winners while Uni captured value from the flow.
Sometimes doing less creates more value.
Game is game. 🎭
#Uniswap #DeFi #Crypto #Ethereum #UNI#KoreanStockRebound Foreign investors net bought 14 trillion KRW. On August 5, the Korean stock market saw a strong rebound, with the KOSPI index surging 3.76% to reclaim the 6500-point level, closing at 6598.26 points; foreign investors net bought about 14.5 trillion KRW in a single day, becoming the core force driving the market up. KOSPI200 futures initially soared 5.12%, triggering a programmatic buy halt mechanism 📈.
There are two main driving factors:
First, the US semiconductor rally. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6.55% overnight, with Micron up 7.62% and AMD up 7.00%, directly igniting bullish sentiment in Korean chip stocks. Foreign investors concentrated their buying on core HBM targets like Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS), the latter rising 5.77% in a single day.
Second, macro risk easing. Progress in US-Iran negotiations and rising expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to declines in international oil prices and US Treasury yields, boosting risk appetite and strengthening the Korean won.
Short term 📈: Foreign short covering + leverage reduction nearing completion + AI capital expenditure story still ongoing, KOSPI has momentum to continue recovery;
Medium to long term 📉 (volatile and cautious): This round looks more like an "oversold rebound + liquidity relief" rather than a trend reversal. Foreign investors have still net sold over 157 trillion KRW year-to-date, and although leveraged ETFs have shrunk 13% from their peak, the deleveraging process will take about three more months. Volatility risk in KOSPI200 futures remains.
Following foreign investors for the rebound is fine, but don’t mistake the spike for a reversal — the 5-day trend for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix remains negative, and bottom confirmation will take time.
$SKHYNIX Yesterday (8/5), the stock market trends were quite mixed, quite different from the simultaneous rally seen in previous days. The Dow Jones continued to hit records, rising 263 points or 0.49%, closing near 54,349, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains; However, the S&P 500 fell slightly by 0.17%, effectively ending its previous four-day winning streak; The Nasdaq fell more noticeably, closing down 0.83%. Basically, this means the market is starting to diverge—not everything is rising, and funds are starting to make structural adjustments. The main drag on the index was Alphabet, which dropped by about 4% to 4.5%. The reason was a major personnel change in Google's AI division, including chief scientist Jeff Dean resigning to start his own AI company, and CEO reshuffling DeepMind's head Demis Hassabis. The market is concerned that Alphabet will have a vacuum in the AI talent race. On top of that, the recent financial report sharply revised up capital expenditure, turning free cash flow negative. These two factors combined have put considerable pressure on Alphabet these past few days. Conversely, Nvidia and Amgen bucked the trend and strengthened, rising about 3.8% and 5.1% respectively; Disney's earnings report is strong, and its stock price has risen nearly 4%. Next, let's talk about SpaceX. This is its first financial report after going public, and the numbers are quite impressive: revenue grew 92% year-on-year, especially in AI-related revenue$SPCX Most people are still debating "whether the unlock will crash the market" and "how much it will crash," which is too superficial.
What really deserves attention is: high short positions encountering a sudden doubling of floating shares.
Previously, SpaceX's violent volatility was largely due to "extreme scarcity."
Only about 5% of the shares were truly tradable. Shorts couldn't borrow enough shares, so any positive news easily squeezed them out. Now, the unlock directly shatters this scarcity. Shorts finally have shares to cover, and early holders can cash out. This is not simply "more sell orders," but a shift in the market microstructure from "scarcity premium" to "supply testing."
Trading can be viewed simply in two layers:
If after today's unlock volume surges but the price holds around 105-108, or even quickly recovers above 110, it indicates support remains, offering a short-term rebound opportunity, with the next resistance around 115-118.
If volume surges and the price breaks below 105 without recovery, selling pressure dominates, opening downside space, with the next support near 100.
The earnings report has already proven growth, but the market is now repricing the "real supply and demand after scarcity disappears."
This is information more valuable than revenue figures.
There will be multiple subsequent staggered unlocks, extending the rhythm; it's not a one-day life-or-death event
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 Last week I analyzed with everyone that SpaceX's decline was not due to company problems but a supply issue. Today is the unlock day, and it has been confirmed.
The stock plunged 14% in early trading. Before the unlock, the company's floating shares were less than 280 million, but this time up to 911.5 million shares were released at once, causing the supply to surge more than threefold, with the market value of shares floating on the market reaching between $100 billion and $123 billion.
The financial report itself is actually fine. Revenue was $7.8 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, better than the market estimate of $6.81 billion; Starlink's internet service revenue grew 66% year-over-year and already accounts for more than half of total revenue. The stock price still fell 7% right after the earnings release because the market was more concerned about the high AI-related capital expenditures and the imminent unlock.
This is not a lie in the financial report; the $7.8 billion revenue and 92% growth are real. It's purely a supply issue, not a fundamental problem. Early shareholders' need to liquidate pledged shares coinciding with the unlock timing caused selling pressure to be reflected in the stock price in advance. The unlock day might actually mark the start of the bad news being fully priced in.
The earnings report is a bonus, but the supply issue is the main subject determining the score this week.
Next, watch the speed of selling pressure absorption—holding the previous support means the market has absorbed this unlock, so consider buying on dips in batches; continuous breakdown means selling pressure is fiercer than expected, and it is not recommended to chase higher to average down.
Which type of dip buying would you choose: a decline caused by supply issues or one caused by fundamental problems?
$SPCX #USStocks #IPO #SpaceStocks The impact of the US-Iran situation on the virtual currency trend primarily transmits through geopolitical conflicts to oil prices, inflation expectations, and global liquidity, ultimately affecting risk appetite in the crypto market. This can be broken down into the following dimensions:
1. Core Transmission Logic
The core impact path of the US-Iran conflict is the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz → surge in oil prices → rebound in inflation → rising expectations of central bank rate hikes → tightening of market liquidity. Virtual currencies, as risk assets highly sensitive to liquidity, are directly impacted by this chain.
- When the conflict escalates and oil prices spike, market risk aversion quickly intensifies, causing crypto assets to generally come under pressure and decline;
- When the situation shows signs of easing and oil prices fall, rate hike expectations cool down, risk appetite recovers, and virtual currencies experience a rebound.
2. Market Performance at Different Stages of the Situation
1. Conflict Escalation Stage
From late June to early July 2026, during mutual attacks between the US and Iran and Trump's announcement to terminate the ceasefire memorandum, the crypto market plunged rapidly: Bitcoin briefly fell below $59,000, then dropped under $62,000, Ethereum followed suit, and within 24 hours, the total market cap of virtual currencies evaporated by over 3%. The total market liquidation exceeded $180 million, with 80% from long positions, pushing the market into an "extreme fear" state.
During this phase, altcoins with shallower order books fell much more than mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, with funds quickly concentrating on top-tier assets.
2. Conflict Stalemate Stage
In mid to late July, as the US and Iran continued their standoff and Brent crude returned to $90/barrel, the market showed clear divergence: Bitcoin retreated from highs but did not break key support; Ethereum performed significantly better than the broader market, only pulling back about 5%, consistently holding above the $1800 mark, with a cumulative 30-day gain exceeding 9%, outperforming Bitcoin’s mere 1% rise, demonstrating a stronger bullish technical structure.
3. Situation Easing Stage
At the end of July, after the US and Iran confirmed the resumption of indirect talks and Trump announced a pause on strikes against Iran, oil prices dropped more than 6% in a single day, US Treasury yields fell simultaneously, and Bitcoin quickly rebounded to around $65,000. Market leverage risk was largely cleared after prior concentrated liquidations, significantly reducing selling pressure and entering a high-level consolidation phase with potential for a breakout.
3. Key Observations for Subsequent Trends
1. Core Support and Resistance Levels
Bitcoin’s current core support is at $62,900; if broken, it will trigger a new round of selling pressure. The key resistance zone is between $64,500 and $65,000; only a valid breakout above this can break the short-term bearish pattern and open upward space. Ethereum, after holding the $1800 support, is expected to challenge the $2000 level.
2. Situation Variables
If the US-Iran conflict escalates again and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, oil prices will surge again, and the crypto market will face renewed downward pressure. If peace talks continue to advance, inflation pressure eases, and the Federal Reserve maintains stable interest rates, mainstream virtual currencies will see a recovery rally.
3. Capital Flows
It is crucial to monitor net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs going forward, as this is a core indicator of institutional capital movement and directly determines the sustainability of the current rebound.
Friendly Reminder: The virtual currency market itself is highly volatile, compounded by geopolitical uncertainties, making the market extremely unpredictable. The above content is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance before participating in related transactions. $ETH $BTC USDC circulation and institutional adoption continue to grow, with licenses strengthening the regulatory moat; however, revenue remains highly dependent on interest from reserve assets. The average reserve yield in Q2 dropped by 66 basis points, indicating that rate cuts will directly compress earnings. The revised other income guidance partly comes from one-time or early-stage token pre-sales and cannot be fully valued as stable recurring income. The company has approximately $1.73 billion in cash and cash equivalents. $CRCL $SNDK SanDisk's earnings report this time is very strong, but the stock price fell, which is a typical case of "performance exceeding expectations, but the market expects even more."
SanDisk's latest quarterly revenue reached $8.97 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $39.25, both surpassing market expectations. The demand for storage from AI data centers remains the main driver of performance growth.
However, the problem is that SanDisk's stock price had already risen significantly before, and market expectations for the next quarter were also raised high. Although the company's revenue guidance continues to grow, it does not significantly exceed Wall Street's expectations, so funds have started to take profits.
So now, when looking at SanDisk, the focus is not on whether the earnings report is good or not, but on two questions:
Whether the post-earnings decline can find support
Whether the August 13 investor day can provide new growth expectations
The fundamentals remain strong, but the short term has already entered a high-expectation phase of "good news not being good enough."
Do you think SanDisk's recent decline is an opportunity, or is the high-level trend starting to cool down?
$SNDK #SanDisk #AIStorage #EarningsAnalysis #USStocksAfter more than a week, here is an update on the BTC MVRV progress.
Recent changes:
• 7 days:
1.2192 → 1.2254
+0.51%
• 14 days:
1.2682 → 1.2254
−3.37%
In simple terms:
The MVRV over the past 14 days is still in a downward trend, but there has been a slight rebound in the last 7 days, not a continuous one-way decline.
Comparison at the same halving position:
2016 cycle: 1.3014
2020 cycle: 1.0018
2024 current cycle: 1.2254
The current cycle's MVRV is between the corresponding positions of the two historical cycles.
Whether there will be a final drop is metaphysically dependent on the next important date:
Around August 24, 2026.
(About 856 days after halving)
Continue to observe whether the current cycle evolves along the historical halving cycle path.$BTC is forming a bottom in a "boring sideways" pattern, but there may still be a "final dip."
According to the latest Glassnode report, Bitcoin is slowly forming a bottom.
On July 31, the Coldcard incident resulted in the theft of about 594 BTC. In the following three days, the amount of Bitcoin that had not moved for over a year surged to about 119,000 BTC, but only about one-tenth flowed into exchanges, and the price did not show a significant panic reaction.
This indicates that long-term holders have started adjusting their assets but have not created concentrated selling pressure.
The current seller exhaustion indicator has entered a historical bottom area, but it is still about one-third away from the true final bottom of past bear markets, meaning chip cleansing is underway but may not be fully complete.
However, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about 65,800 BTC in June, marking the worst monthly performance in history; corporate reserve buying also cannot fully fill the funding gap.
Without new incremental funds, even if selling decreases, BTC will find it difficult to quickly start a trending rally.
The options market is also unusually calm. The implied volatility of call options has dropped to a historical low of about 23%, while put volatility remains normal, indicating traders are neither betting on a surge nor paying high protection costs for a crash.
Historically, similar volatility compressions mostly break upward eventually, but this round lacks the demand to drive a sustained rally.
Moreover, in terms of related indicator trends, BTC is currently still oscillating around $64,000.
If it breaks out with volume and holds above $65,000, it is expected to extend to $67,000 to $68,000; if it falls below the $62,000 to $63,000 cost-intensive zone, it may retest $60,000 again.
BTC bottom conditions are accumulating, but true reversal signals are still insufficient:
- ETF inflows
- Volume expansion
- Price breaking key levels
#CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 Circle's financial report is out. Looking at the pre-market price, it seemed optimistic, but now it has dropped again. I reviewed the data. I thought it would be worse, but overall the data is a bit more optimistic than I expected.
From the data, year-over-year growth is evident, indicating it’s definitely better than last year. However, a few month-over-month growth figures are negative. They are:
Adjusted EBITDA -5.2%
USDC end-of-period circulation -4.8%
USDC within the platform -9.5%
My personal thought is that the last two data points are still related to the crypto bear market. After all, the bear market not only causes mainstream asset prices to fall, but stablecoin minting is very likely to decrease. If next quarter the price of Bitcoin is even lower and on-chain activity is worse, then USDC issuance will be even less, and this data could worsen.
At the same time, from the data, USDC still won’t break free from the crypto asset cycle for now, since it originated from the crypto space.
Assuming next quarter’s data is worse and the price drops to a lower level, I personally lean toward the view that CRCL won’t see significant gains before BTC completes its bottoming process; it will only fluctuate.
Finally, back to position sizing: having a position size that you’re comfortable with whether the price goes up or down is the most important. Whether it rises to 150 or falls to 50, you can still live normally, sleep well, and maintain your mindset. That’s what matters most.
All data can only be used to assist investment decisions; only position management determines whether an investment is reasonable and whether you can maintain a healthy mindset.SNDK SanDisk Latest Analysis (August 5 Close + After Hours)
Closing Price: $1,350.5 (-5.40%) | After-hours Price: About $1,250 (down about 7.5% after hours)
Key Data
• Official Close: $1,350.5, down $77.12, a decline of 5.40%
• After-hours Trading: Continued sharp drop after earnings release, hitting a low of $1,242, latest after-hours price about $1,250, after-hours decline about 7.5%
• Full-day Range: From intraday high of $1,441.76 to after-hours low of $1,242, a range of 13.9%
• Volume: 16.37 million shares (regular trading), over 10 million shares traded after hours, turnover rate over 11%
• Market Cap: About $185 billion (after hours)
Market Analysis
SNDK shows a typical "good news fully priced" scenario:
1. Q4 results greatly exceeded expectations: Revenue $8.965 billion (up 372% YoY), adjusted EPS $39.25, both significantly beating estimates
2. Q1 guidance below expectations: Company expects Q1 revenue of $10.3-10.8 billion, market expected $10.8-11.16 billion, midpoint about 3-5% below expectations
3. Stock price priced in gains early: Price rose over 30% in 30 days before earnings, good news fully priced in
4. Industry concerns: Signs of NAND flash prices peaking, hyperscale vendor inventories normalizing, pricing power may weaken
5. Hedging positive: Company announced an additional $14 billion stock buyback authorization
Technically, the price has completely broken down: Regular trading fell below the key support of $1,364, after-hours gap down directly to the $1,250 range, forming a large bearish gap. From the $1,441 high, the maximum drawdown in one trading day is nearly $200, with bears fully in control.
Trading Strategy
Main Strategy: Short on rebounds
• If the next day opens with a rebound to the $1,300-1,320 range, consider heavy short positions
• Stop loss set at $1,350 (above official closing price)
• First target: $1,200, second target: $1,150
Secondary Strategy: Buy the dip on low open for a short-term rebound (only short-term)
• If it opens directly low at $1,220-1,240 range, consider light positions to catch oversold rebound
• Stop loss set at $1,200
• Target: $1,280-1,300 (quick in and out, no holding)
Current Recommendation: The trend has clearly turned bearish, focus on shorting at highs, bottom fishing is not recommended. The August 6 open will likely be in the $1,250-1,280 range; if it continues to drop after open, do not chase shorts, wait for a rebound to enter; if it opens sharply lower, a technical rebound may occur, but the rebound is a shorting opportunity. The $14 billion buyback may provide short-term support but is unlikely to reverse the trend, and rebound height is expected to be limited.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? The core contradiction in the crypto market on August 6 was: macroeconomic easing + ETF inflows providing support, but weakening Japanese and Korean stock markets + Fed hawkishness not quelled, forming a fluctuating pattern of pressure on the upper side and support below. · Key variables in international affairs US-Iran negotiations: Trump says results may be reached within 48 hours, Hormuz shipping expectations eased, oil prices fell to about $75 for WTI and $79 for Brent, inflation expectations cooled, easing pressure on risk assets. Japanese and Korean stocks: opened lower and fell today, KOSPI fell about 1.7%, The Nikkei 225 fell about 1.3%, chip stocks (SK Hynix down over 5%, Kioxia down nearly 10%) dragged on Asia-Pacific risk appetite. U.S. stocks diverged: overnight, the Nasdaq fell 0.83%, semiconductor stocks came under pressure, but the Dow edged up slightly, with no overall one-sided risk clearing · BTC/ETH Real-Time Market BTC: Asian session fluctuates between 63,800 and 65,000, currently around 64,600 to 64,700, up about 0.8% in 24 hours. ETF has seen net inflows for two consecutive days (cumulative exceeding $330 million) providing support, but selling pressure is significant around $65,250. ETH: Holds above $1,900 (around $1,910-1,915), slightly stronger gains than BTC, but volume has not expanded. The $1,920–$1,950 range remains a short-term resistance level · Today's market qualification is not a one-sided trend, but an event-driven volatility: On the positive side: oil prices fall + ETF inflowsShort position opened near 1100 on SK Hynix, targeting 1012 first, with a stop loss around 1132. $SKHYNIX
This short is not because I suddenly turned bearish on storage, but because most of the short-term positive catalysts have basically landed, yet the price hasn't shown the expected strength.
Six brokerages just collectively issued buy ratings, the company released expectations of increased shareholder returns; SanDisk's earnings and guidance both exceeded consensus, yet it still fell after hours.
Even good news can't push the price, indicating the market is no longer trading on "whether earnings are good or not," but on whether such high expectations can continue to rise.
At the same time, TrendForce's latest stance also shows marginal cooling: client SSD price increases have clearly slowed, and consumer-side purchasing is more cautious.
Technically, this rebound still hasn't broken above the downtrend channel; after facing resistance at the upper boundary, it fell back again, and the trend structure hasn't reversed.
✔ Short near 1100
✔ First look for support at 1070–1090
✔ If it breaks down effectively, target 1012
✔ Stop loss near 1132
If it climbs back above 1132 and recovers the upper channel boundary, this trade logic fails, and exit immediately.
I'm not shorting the entire AI storage cycle, but after the cluster of positive catalysts have landed, this rebound still fails.The reported development is potentially significant, but it should still be viewed as a step in negotiations rather than a completed agreement. Recent reporting indicates that Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a draft framework for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with final approval and implementation still subject to political decisions and unresolved conditions.
If such an agreement moves forward, the market implications could unfold along this chain:
Lower geopolitical risk → reduced supply disruption fears.
Potential easing in oil prices if traders remove part of the geopolitical risk premium.
Lower inflation expectations, assuming energy prices remain contained.
Improved backdrop for risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies, if investors also expect less pressure for tighter monetary policy.
However, there are important caveats:
This is a macro tailwind, not a guaranteed catalyst. Crypto prices are also driven by factors such as ETF flows, on-chain activity, leverage, and investor sentiment.
Even if oil falls, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may not rally immediately. Markets often price in news before it becomes official, or other factors can dominate price action.
The negotiations remain conditional, so the positive macro scenario depends on the agreement being approved and successfully implemented.
Overall, your conclusion is balanced: if the Hormuz agreement is finalized, it could improve the macro environment by reducing geopolitical and inflation concerns. But whether BTC or other crypto assets benefit will still depend on their own market dynamics and whether buyers step in to confirm the move. Watching price confirmation rather than assuming a rally remains a prudent approach.
#DailyOrbit Forecast: $SNDK 1️⃣ Current performance is impeccable
Fiscal 2026 Q4 revenue of $8.96 billion, significantly exceeding the expected $8.394 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, with a gross margin of 84.6%. Additionally, a new $14 billion buyback was announced, bringing the total remaining buyback authorization to $15.5 billion, fully maximizing the paper positives.
2️⃣ The core contradiction behind the market sell-off lies in the next quarter's guidance
Fiscal 2027 Q1 revenue guidance is $10.3–10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, below Wall Street's consensus expectation of $10.8 billion.
In cyclical sectors, capital has very low tolerance for "marginal growth slowdown," even if the absolute growth remains high, it will trigger valuation contraction.
3️⃣ A $10 billion buyback ≠ stock price insurance
Buybacks are just board-authorized limits; management can time or pause them and will not unconditionally support the stock price, so they cannot directly counteract cyclical pullbacks.
4️⃣ Previous gains have already fully priced in the AI storage supercycle
Before the earnings report, the stock price had already risen sharply, with many unrealized gains waiting for positive news to materialize and exit, a typical buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenario.
👉 Deduction: If capital continues to trade on the expectation that the cycle has peaked, $800 will be the next important test level, where most of the current valuation bubble will be digested.
The most dangerous moment for cyclical stocks is the quarter with the best performance.Within two weeks, build a position in $SPCX.
What I'm betting on is not the financial report.
I'm betting on the end of the lock-up period.
The first batch of lock-up expires tomorrow.
The second batch expires within two weeks.
After these two batches, the circulating supply will reach 15.2%.
Those who were going to sell have basically sold.
Those who haven't sold likely won't at this price.
So, my judgment is:
Within two weeks is the first major bottom phase for $SPCX.
I was not disappointed by yesterday's financial report.
What really caused the market to crash was not the performance, but the capital expenditure.
Wall Street is focused on this year's profits.
I'm focused on the next five years.
AI computing power rental is responsible for making money.
Starlink is responsible for opening up the imagination.
One is cash flow.
One is valuation.
This is also why I continue to be optimistic about SpaceX.
Updating my previous prediction:
The Rangers won't wait for the midterm elections in November.
The first target prey: $SPCX. 🚩Today's Market Guide｜2026-08-06
Recently, the market's demands for "good performance" have clearly increased. Indices remain high, but everyone has started to calculate company by company: Is business growth fast enough? Can profits be realized? Is there still room for valuation expansion?
1. High-expectation assets enter the "homework submission" phase
Overnight, the US blue-chip index rose about 0.49%, hitting a new closing high; the broad market index fell about 0.17%, and the tech stock index dropped about 0.83%, showing clear internal divergence.
$AMD's earnings and next quarter revenue guidance both exceeded general market expectations, and data center revenue doubled, yet the stock price still fell about 7.2%. The problem lies in expectations being stretched too far: the market wants to see faster growth, higher profit margins, and simultaneous improvement in supply capacity. Now, just delivering "decent" results is hard to support further high valuation rallies.
For traders, the next step in watching tech stocks is to look deeper: beating earnings expectations is only the first hurdle; whether guidance can be revised upward again determines if capital is willing to stay.
2. Capital begins seeking clearer cash flow
$DIS rose about 3.6% overnight, with earnings beating expectations, mainly supported by theme parks and film businesses. The market is willing to reward companies with clearer revenue sources and relatively limited valuation pressure.
This indicates that capital has not fully withdrawn from risk assets but is rotating baskets. High-valuation tech stocks face stricter scrutiny, while sectors like consumer, entertainment, and healthcare with higher earnings visibility may gain phase rotation opportunities.
3. Employment slows, interest rate expectations cool down again
The latest private employment report shows about 44,000 new jobs added in July, significantly lower than June's 95,000 and below market expectations. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.615%, and the market's probability of a September rate hike dropped from about 68% at the start of the week to 55%.
In the short term, reduced interest rate pressure benefits gold, bonds, and some growth assets; the risk is direct: if employment data continues to deteriorate rapidly, the market will start worrying about corporate profits and consumer demand. The employment report released on Friday may become the biggest volatility trigger for the rest of the week.
4. $BTC shows a "capital inflow, price sluggish" state
$BTC is currently near $64,600, with a daily increase of about 1.1%, overall still pressured to oscillate repeatedly around $65,000. Institutional capital demand remains resilient, but retail participation is weak, so the price lacks sustained acceleration power.
Today's key observation is the quality of the breakout near $65,000. If the price breakout is accompanied by a simultaneous increase in spot trading volume, the trend will have better continuity; if leverage sentiment heats up quickly but spot follow-through is insufficient, the probability of a spike and pullback increases.
5. After yen intervention, policy follow-up is still to be seen
The yen currently stabilizes around 157.7. The previous joint intervention temporarily stopped unilateral depreciation, but the impact of intervention is usually short-lived, and the follow-up depends on whether Japanese interest rate expectations continue to rise.
If the yen continues to strengthen, global carry trades may further contract, and Japanese export stocks and high-valuation growth assets are likely to be affected. The forex market line is worth observing together with tech stock trends today.
Today's trading rhythm
Before Friday's employment report release, one-sided positions should not be too heavy. Watch tech stocks for post-earnings support strength, BTC for the quality of the $65,000 breakout, and the yen for whether a new trading range forms between 157–158.
Related symbols:
$AMD: Pricing barometer for high-expectation tech assets, focus on capital support in the $470–500 range after earnings-driven decline.
$BTC: Clear divergence between institutional capital demand and price consolidation, $65,000 is the current core observation level.
$JPY: Policy intervention and rate hike expectations jointly affect carry trades, potentially further transmitting to Japanese stocks and global growth assets.
This article only provides a market observation framework and does not constitute investment advice.
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $SPCX SanDisk's financial report is out
$SNDK
This quarter's performance ✅ was impeccable, with revenue, EPS, and gross margin all exceeding expectations
✅ Full-year results: $20.25 billion in revenue, $11.4 billion in net profit, turning losses into profits
Q1 guidance ⚠️: median value slightly below expectations, market "nitpicking"
The buyback program ✅ of $14 billion demonstrates confidence
Stock price reaction 🔴 is "buy expectation, sell facts," and short-term profit-taking
The performance itself was not problematic; the decline was the result of disappointing expectations (the median guidance was slightly lower) and a chip game (a 40% surge before the earnings report).
For investors who have long been optimistic about the AI storage sector, the key remains whether the data center business can sustain high growth and whether gross margins can stay above 80%.
Personally, I think this deep pullback is a golden pit
$SNDK #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
SanDisk's earnings clearly exceeded expectations, so why did the stock price fall?
Many people's first reaction is:
Did the earnings report blow up?
Actually, quite the opposite.
📈 This quarter's revenue and EPS both surpassed market expectations, AI data center SSD business continues rapid growth, and the fundamentals have not deteriorated.
The real reasons for the stock price pullback are mainly three:
① Market expectations were too high.
This year, the AI storage concept has been continuously hot, and SanDisk's stock price has already priced in a lot of optimistic expectations. For such a high-valuation company, just beating expectations is not enough; it must far exceed expectations.
② Next quarter guidance lacked surprises.
The company's guidance for next quarter's revenue and profit continues to grow but did not meet the market's most optimistic forecasts.
For growth stocks:
Performance is about the future, not just the past.
③ Profit-taking by investors.
The stock price had already risen significantly earlier, and many investors chose to take profits and exit after the earnings release, which is a typical “Sell the News” scenario.
My view:
This pullback looks more like valuation digestion rather than fundamental deterioration.
Demand for high-performance storage from AI data centers is still growing, and the enterprise SSD and NAND markets have not seen significant changes.
In summary:
The earnings beat market expectations but did not beat the market's imagination.
For high-valuation AI companies, what truly determines the stock price is not how good the performance is, but whether it is good enough to exceed everyone's imagination. $SNDK If these figures are accurate, they point to a significant shift in who is holding Ethereum.
The main claims are:
Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies now collectively hold more ETH than U.S. spot ETH ETFs.
BitMine alone reportedly holds nearly 5% of Ethereum's circulating supply.
Spot ETH ETFs + DAT companies together reportedly control close to 11% of the total ETH supply.
Why this matters
Reduced liquid supply: If a large share of ETH is held by long-term treasury companies or ETFs, less ETH may be available for active trading, which can tighten supply.
Institutional adoption: Treasury companies are becoming another major source of institutional demand alongside ETFs.
Staking impact: If much of those holdings are staked, even more ETH is effectively removed from liquid circulation while earning staking rewards.
Risks to watch
Concentration: When a relatively small number of entities control a large percentage of ETH, concerns arise about validator concentration and governance influence.
Treasury strategy changes: Corporate treasuries can change their capital allocation over time. If large holders decide to reduce positions, that could increase market volatility.
Supply figures evolve: Ethereum's circulating supply and institutional holdings change over time, so percentages should be viewed as snapshots rather than fixed values.
Overall, if institutional treasuries continue accumulating ETH while ETF inflows remain positive, it strengthens the narrative that Ethereum is increasingly becoming an institutional asset. Whether that translates into higher prices will still depend on broader market conditions, network activity, and continued demand rather than ownership concentration alone.
#DailyOrbit Risk warning: The following are personal technical views and do not constitute investment advice. Position control is the priority. Today, the trend is driven by rally chasing, not panic or risk aversion. Driving the momentum is expectations of a restart in the Strait of Hormuz + oil price decline→ cooling inflation expectations → Fed rate hikes betting on pullback. Gold prices are following a "rate path repricing" logic, not purely geopolitical hard hedging. The signal has already been given: after a strong bullish breakout, follow the trend and be bullish. But yesterday's nearly 4% surge was too strong; today's core isn't blindly chasing the rally, but waiting for a pullback before getting back in. In short: In a bullish game, but don't stand naked on the waves. XAU Analysis 1. Trend Qualitative: Continuing to rise within an upward trend. Conclusion: After a strong breakout, the rebound quality is good, but it is overheated in the short term. From below 4100, the market has been short-selling all the way up to above 4250, with a weekly consecutive gains of nearly 6%. The structure is bullish, not a false breakout or a false conclusion. 2. Key Support Level (Concentrated Area in the Past 1–2 Days) • Main Support: 4220–4250 • Hold = Breakout is effective, pullback is a buy point, bullish continuation • Break below = rally and pullback, short-term fluctuation, reduce positions and wait • Secondary support: 4180–4185 • Hold = Strong recovery not broken, still possible to buy on dips • Break below = Bullish rhythm interrupted, look back at 4100–4120 resistance • Main resistance: 4290–4300 • Break and hold = Open upside potential, Next target is 4310–4320 (near the year's open)This is really quite strange, $SNDK's earnings report exceeded expectations, yet it plummeted because the future performance guidance was below expectations 🤔
It seems the market's demands for storage are getting higher and higher, and even the slightest ripple can cause drastic market fluctuations
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 $SNDK $SKHYNIX
Due to resting last night, no trades were made. Today, it is expected that SK Hynix might decline, leading to a drop in SanDisk during the early session.
Moreover, with the earnings report released, for the entire fiscal year 2026, SanDisk's revenue reached $20.25 billion, a 175% increase compared to the previous year, indicating that the current NAND upcycle and AI infrastructure-related demand have significantly driven the company's revenue scale. SanDisk's management stated that by the end of fiscal year 2026, SanDisk had established a "leading technology portfolio" and positioned its data center business as a key growth pillar.
At the same time, SanDisk's board approved a new $14 billion stock repurchase plan, with the current total remaining repurchase authorization reaching $15.5 billion. For SanDisk, which experienced a sharp drop in July and a rapid valuation decline, a large-scale buyback is undoubtedly an important signal of confidence from management and also provides potential support for the stock price.
However, after the earnings release, SanDisk's stock price fell 5.4% during regular trading on Wednesday and did not rebound; after-hours the decline widened to as much as 8%.
Analysts believe the key reason for the sharp stock price drop is not the Q4 performance itself, but that SanDisk's revenue guidance for the current fiscal quarter is below market expectations, with the adjusted EPS guidance range basically near market expectations. SanDisk is a major beneficiary of AI storage transactions, and the market holds very high growth expectations for the company. The stock price performance shows that the "better-than-expected past" could not fully offset the "slightly below expectations future."Six months ago, every Fed conversation centered on when rates would come down. Today, that conversation has quietly flipped. July's FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75%, but the vote was 9-3 dissenters Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan pushed for an immediate hike. Markets have repriced sharply since: from pricing cuts to now expecting one to two hikes by year-end, with JPMorgan's chief economist projecting the Fed holds through all of 2026 and hikes in 2027 rather than cutting at all. That Last month, $ETH was like someone trapped in a maze, looking up six times at the exit at 2000, and being pushed back six times. On July 15, 1946, it rushed and fell. On July 21, 1952, it rushed and collapsed again. On July 22, 1956, it collapsed. On July 23, 1955, it collapsed. On July 27, it was just 18 points short of 2000, surging to 1982, but still went down. On July 28, 1954, it fell again. Six times. Every time it approaches 2000, a relentless wave of selling occurs. 2000 is not a line, but a wall. It is piled high with trapped positions, take-profit orders, and short positions, with every touch triggering the release of chips. But early this morning, things were a bit different. What happened in the early hours: $ETH broke out of an independent market for the first time, spreading out the 1-hour moving average from early this morning, while $ETH and $BTC each went their separate ways. $BTC's scenario: at 04:00 AM it surges to 65026, touches it briefly and then turns around, drops back to 64704 at 05:00, and at 08:00 it slides straight to 64573. A typical "spike and retreat" was exactly the same outcome as every attempt to hit 65,000 in the past two months. $ETH's script is completely the opposite. At 01:00 AM, ETH started at 1894 and by 02:00 it climbed directly to 1927.76—this was the first time since July 27 when it broke through 1982 to return above 1920. Then the key came: at 05:00 AM, the price fell from 1927 to 1906, but did not fall below 19$BTC
The Last Drop of Bitcoin: Why I Believe Around $50,000 Could Be the Final Shakeout Before the Next Bull Market?
Many think BTC bottomed near $64,000, but based on the historical pattern of the Bull Market Support Band, this currently looks more like a bear market recovery phase rather than a cycle reversal.
Looking back at the 2022 bear market:
- The first bull-bear support band crossover made the market think the correction was over, but the rebound failed;
- The second crossover saw Bitcoin rebound from $33,000 to $48,000, reigniting market belief in a bull market, only to be followed by the LUNA crash and a drop to $15,400;
- The third crossover, accompanied by extreme panic after FTX, completed the final shakeout and started the new cycle in 2023.
History tells us:
The first two crossovers in a bear market often create false hope; the third confirmation is usually the true trend reversal.
The current 2026 trend is approaching the stage after the second crossover in 2022.
Although BTC has rebounded, it has not yet firmly held above the bull-bear support band. If it breaks above around $70,000 in the future, market sentiment may turn optimistic again, with large capital chasing the rally.
But the most dangerous point in the market is here:
When everyone starts believing "the bear market is over," it is often when the next shakeout begins.
If history repeats, we might see:
Rally breakout → Market euphoria → Breakout failure → Drop below support band → Final panic.
Why is the last drop necessary?
Because a true bottom usually requires:
① The market to completely lose confidence;
② Short-term holders to cut losses and chips to reconcentrate;
③ On-chain indicators like MVRV Z-Score and CVDD to enter extreme undervaluation zones.
Currently, these conditions do not seem fully met.
Therefore, I believe the $50,000 level or even lower could still be the final shakeout zone of this cycle.
The market does not end a bear market when everyone is in despair, nor does it start a bull market when everyone believes in it.
A true major bull market is often born when no one believes in it for the last time.Nearly 910 million shares held by SpaceX employees and early investors will officially become tradable tomorrow.
At the current stock price, this corresponds to a market value exceeding $100 billion.
This is one of the largest unlocks of the century.
The bearish aspects are also obvious:
• Early employees have extremely low cost bases, providing strong motivation to cash out for profit.
• Unrealized gains accumulated over years in the primary market now have their first real opportunity to be freely sold.
• A large influx of newly tradable shares will significantly increase selling pressure in the market.
• If the stock price comes under pressure after the unlock, it could easily trigger a panic sell-off and more profit-taking.
Of course, the real determinant of the trend is the buying support.
If the buying demand is strong enough, the unlock may just be a turnover; if the support is insufficient, even the best earnings report may not withstand the selling pressure.
Tomorrow, $SPCX will face its first real major test since listing. $SPCX #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #西联推出稳定币卡，接入Solana生态
This is not a trial; it's the real deal.
Western Union did something big yesterday—they directly moved their lifeline—the $107 billion cross-border payment network—onto Solana.
The product is called Stablecard. The concept is simple but powerful.
When users receive money from Western Union, the funds arrive directly in the form of USDPT. USDPT is Western Union's own US dollar stablecoin, issued on Solana by Anchorage Digital Bank, the first federally chartered crypto bank in the US. This card is a Visa card, accepted at 175 million merchants worldwide, and can be linked to Apple Pay and Google Pay.
Previously, after cross-border remittances arrived, you had to convert them into local currency or deposit them into a bank before spending. Now, you can spend immediately upon receipt, eliminating all intermediate steps.
The global average cost for sending $200 is 6.35%, while the UN target is 3%. Stablecoins can reduce costs to below 1%. Western Union processes 285 million cross-border transactions annually, covering over 100 million users. Even if only a portion is converted, the savings are substantial.
USDPT fully complies with the US GENIUS Act regulatory requirements, clearing compliance risks and removing the biggest barrier for traditional financial institutions to enter. It launched in 37 markets initially, aiming to expand to over 60 by year-end. The selected regions are those with unstable local currencies and existing demand for stablecoins.
What's interesting is that Western Union, after spending over a century building 360,000 offline outlets, is now proactively migrating to Solana—not just moving settlement on-chain but also creating consumer-end products.
The trillion-dollar cross-border remittance market is transitioning from "cash counters" to "on-chain wallets." Western Union is the first to scale this to such a large extent.If these figures are accurate, they point to a significant shift in who is holding Ethereum.
The main claims are:
Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies now collectively hold more ETH than U.S. spot ETH ETFs.
BitMine alone reportedly holds nearly 5% of Ethereum's circulating supply.
Spot ETH ETFs + DAT companies together reportedly control close to 11% of the total ETH supply.
Why this matters
Reduced liquid supply: If a large share of ETH is held by long-term treasury companies or ETFs, less ETH may be available for active trading, which can tighten supply.
Institutional adoption: Treasury companies are becoming another major source of institutional demand alongside ETFs.
Staking impact: If much of those holdings are staked, even more ETH is effectively removed from liquid circulation while earning staking rewards.
Risks to watch
Concentration: When a relatively small number of entities control a large percentage of ETH, concerns arise about validator concentration and governance influence.
Treasury strategy changes: Corporate treasuries can change their capital allocation over time. If large holders decide to reduce positions, that could increase market volatility.
Supply figures evolve: Ethereum's circulating supply and institutional holdings change over time, so percentages should be viewed as snapshots rather than fixed values.
Overall, if institutional treasuries continue accumulating ETH while ETF inflows remain positive, it strengthens the narrative that Ethereum is increasingly becoming an institutional asset. Whether that translates into higher prices will still depend on broader market conditions, network activity, and continued demand rather than ownership concentration alone.The post presents a recognizable investing narrative, but several claims should be treated as opinion rather than established market fact.
What the post gets right
IPO lock-up expirations can increase the number of shares available for trading, which may lead to higher volatility.
It's common for newly listed stocks to experience sharp declines after the initial excitement fades.
Strong earnings don't always lead to higher stock prices if investors are disappointed by guidance, margins, or heavy spending plans.
Where caution is warranted
There is no universal "post-IPO chart pattern." While many IPOs decline before recovering, many others never regain their highs, and some rally almost immediately.
A 900 million share unlock increases potential supply, but it does not mean all those shares will be sold. Many insiders continue holding their positions.
Saying "the real move happens 200–300 days later" is a historical observation for some stocks, not a reliable prediction for any individual company.
How to interpret the setup
For SPCX, the key questions after the lock-up are:
1. Does the stock absorb the additional share supply without breaking key support?
2. Is trading volume unusually high, suggesting institutional buying or selling?
3. Does management's AI infrastructure spending translate into stronger revenue and cash flow over the coming quarters?
4. Does the market view the investment as value-creating rather than margin-dilutive?
Bottom line
The sensible takeaway is the one the author mentions near the end: wait for the market's reaction instead of assuming the lock-up expiration will be either bullish or bearish. Price action, trading volume, and follow-through in the days after the unlock will provide stronger evidence than any historical template alone.
In short, a lock-up expiration is an important event, but it is not, by itself, a reliable signal that a bottom—or a new downtrend—is inevitable.What truly determines the short-term trend of $MU may no longer be "positive or negative news," but rather the market's repricing of expectations.
Last night, the market gave me a deep impression: the fundamentals remain strong, but the stock price is becoming increasingly difficult to rise.
The logic of the AI industry chain has not fundamentally changed. Tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon continue to expand AI capital expenditures, HBM and DRAM demand remain tight, and the recent market focus is still on the storage supply gap caused by AI computing power expansion. Meanwhile, Elon Musk's remarks on the rapid growth of storage demand in the AI era have once again reinforced the market's long-term optimism for high-end storage.
But why did MU still fall?
Because the market never trades facts, but the difference in expectations.
Looking at the chart:
From the 1-hour level:
* The stock price has fallen back to contest repeatedly around MA5, MA10, and MA20, with the short-term trend beginning to slow.
* The price oscillates repeatedly near the middle Bollinger Band, with the upper band resistance (around 930) failing to break through effectively multiple times.
* KDJ has entered a death cross, and the J value has dropped rapidly, indicating a clear weakening of short-term momentum.
* The price is still running above the previous rally platform, with no trend-breaking move, more like a reshuffling of chips after the rise.
This means:
It is not a confirmed trend reversal now, but both bulls and bears are starting to reprice.
I have always believed that many people tend to interpret every pullback as a deterioration of fundamentals.
In fact, this adjustment is more like:
Valuation digestion, not logic disappearance.
AI demand has not suddenly vanished.
HBM has not suddenly become oversupplied.
Global AI capital expenditure has not stopped.
What really changed is:
The market that used to be willing to give a 100-point expectation may now only be willing to give 90 points.
For stocks that have experienced a significant rise, a 10-point drop in expectations can lead to a 20% price pullback.
Additionally, the macro environment is worth attention.
Recently, the drop in oil prices has eased some inflation pressure, but the market is still continuously evaluating the Fed's future policy path. Capital is starting to focus more on whether valuations are already overstretched rather than simply chasing the AI story. Growth stocks at high valuation stages are more sensitive to any subtle changes in earnings realization, capital expenditure efficiency, or future growth expectations.
My view:
I will not deny the long-term AI logic because of a single bearish candle, nor will I blindly chase highs because of one piece of good news.
What truly deserves attention is:
In the coming days, whether this pullback is supported by capital.
If the volume gradually shrinks during the pullback and the lower platform holds steady, this looks more like healthy rotation;
If the volume expands and breaks below the platform, accompanied by continuous institutional fund outflows, the market may be starting to trade a longer-term valuation correction.
Trading is not about predicting the future but continuously validating your assumptions.
The market gives new answers every day. What we really need to do is not prove ourselves right but timely adjust our judgments when new evidence emerges.
Finally, a question:
Do you think MU is currently digesting overly high expectations, or has the AI storage rally already entered a phase top? Why?