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$SNDK Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase; non-GAAP EPS was $39.25, significantly above the market expectation of $34.96.
But the market is focused on the next quarter guidance:
1. Sandisk guides Q1 FY27 revenue of $10.3-10.8 billion;
2. The midpoint of this range is below FactSet consensus of $10.8 billion, and also below the higher market expectations mentioned in Yahoo's article;
3. EPS guidance is $44-46, roughly in line with consensus, with no strong upward revision.
So the market reaction is straightforward: the earnings report is very good, but the guidance is not explosive. Especially for a stock like SNDK, which had previously surged greatly and had very high market expectations, the biggest fear is "beat, but no further raising of the ceiling." Today's Review:
Recently, the short-term correlation between BTC and the US tech stock sector has strengthened. When highly volatile AI industry chain stocks like SanDisk and Micron experience sharp fluctuations, BTC is also easily influenced by overall risk appetite, institutional fund adjustments, and liquidity changes during US trading hours.
However, this correlation is not a simple one-way causal relationship. Compared to the rise and fall of individual tech stocks, BTC's own spot funds, derivative positions, and key price structures remain the main factors determining short-term direction.
Previously, I established a short position near $64,500, mainly based on multiple rejections at that level and the expectation of a price pullback to the lower boundary of the range. Looking back now, the mistake in this judgment was ignoring the continuous support from buyers below and the fact that the price lows were steadily rising.
Recently, BTC has repeatedly tested the $62,000–$63,000 area but quickly recovered each time, indicating that the market is temporarily unwilling to sustain transactions at lower prices. Although bears have tried multiple times to push the price down, no effective breakdown has occurred, leading some shorts to take profits or exit.
When the price returned to around $64,500, bulls did not immediately launch a trending rally, and bears lacked the strength to push the price down again, resulting in a high-level sideways consolidation. But this consolidation does not entirely mean both sides are waiting. If the price lingers near resistance for a long time without a clear pullback, it may also indicate that the selling pressure above is gradually being absorbed.
With bears actively exiting and the price approaching the upper stop-loss and forced liquidation zones, passive buying from short covering further propelled BTC to challenge $65,000. This is one of the main reasons the current trend is clearly stronger than I initially expected.
The current short position size is very small, so it does not put significant pressure on the account, but I will not ignore structural changes just because the position is light. If BTC effectively holds above $65,000 and finds support after retesting $64,700–$65,000, it means the short-term bearish logic has failed and the position should be exited as planned rather than continuing to wait against the trend.
Conversely, if the price only briefly breaks above $65,000 and then quickly falls back below $64,500, further breaking the rising bottom structure near $64,200 and $63,900, then the upper breakout failure can be reassessed, and support at $63,500 and lower levels should be observed in sequence.
The most important takeaway from this trade review is not simply whether BTC is affected by US stocks, but that one should not prematurely open counter-trend positions based solely on resistance levels and a medium-term bearish bias when the price is continuously making higher lows and bears cannot push through the support. $BTC #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ AI spending remains at full speed, and memory stocks are regaining attention. On the surface, stock prices fall after earnings announcements, but what the market is actually repricing is the sustainability of the AI infrastructure investment cycle, creating a gap. To summarize the core facts of the original text, here are the points. In SpaceX's recent earnings, revenue exceeded expectations thanks to growth in Starlink, AI services, and launch operations, but its stock price fell after the earnings announcement as AI capital expenditures exceeded expectations. However, the most important message from the announcement was the acceleration of big tech investments in AI infrastructure. The significance of this event for market structure is clear. Building AI data centers requires large-scale HBM, enterprise SSDs, DRAM, and NAND storage. As hyperscalers expand AI clusters, memory supply chains become key beneficiaries of this investment cycle. This is not simply a matter of individual company performance, but a structural trend where AI capital spending is changing the demand curve of the entire memory industry. In terms of financial behavior⚠️ Jim Cramer sells Bitcoin over quantum computing concerns
Jim Cramer, host of CNBC's *Mad Money*, announced he would sell his entire Bitcoin holdings due to concerns that future advancements in quantum computing could threaten the cryptographic systems securing Bitcoin. His statement follows warnings from various experts and tech leaders urging the crypto industry to prepare for the post-quantum era.
However, most experts maintain that:
🔹 This is not an immediate threat; current quantum computers lack the power to crack Bitcoin's encryption.
🔹 The Bitcoin community has already begun researching post-quantum cryptographic solutions to safeguard the network for the future.
🔹 This risk is considered a long-term issue rather than a factor that would compromise Bitcoin's security in the coming months or years.
💬 Crypto community reaction:
Many investors view this merely as Jim Cramer's personal opinion, noting that it does not alter Bitcoin's long-term outlook.
On platforms like X and Reddit, many users referenced the "Inverse Cramer" effect—the practice of doing the opposite of what Cramer predicts—interpreting his move as a positive signal (albeit humorously) rather than a reason to sell BTC.
#CLARITYVoteMath $BTC After Upbit announced the launch of $GRVT, the price immediately formed a strong bullish candlestick, with a short-term gain exceeding 80%. This explosive rally has indeed attracted a large number of short sellers. Many believe that if the price rises quickly, they should reverse short positions, but the signals from contract data do not support this judgment. I checked the changes in contract positions and funding rates, and found that at the start of the rise, the long-short ratio did drop rapidly, with bears taking advantage of the situation and entering aggressively. Interestingly, in the latter part of the rally, open interest continued to rise, and the long-short ratio reversed, indicating that the high-level area not only failed to scare off the bulls but actually attracted more funds willing to take over. This combination of price increases, increased positions, and rebounding long-short ratios often means the trend is not over in short-term trading. What deserves even more attention is the flow of funds in the Korean market. Everyone should know their habits of trading cryptocurrencies—when they're at full throtto, their leverage is maxed out. If $GRVT's trading volume on Upbit continues to expand, combined with continued inflows of Korean funds, this upward trendline is likely to surge. Entering the space below now is like standing in the center of the tracks before the train accelerates. I don't recommend chasing short positions at this level, especially not assuming it will immediately reverse just because it has risen a lot. The data tells us that the bull market hasn't ended yet, and the biggest taboo now is to bet on turning points based on intuition. Patiently wait for open interest to peak and pull back, or for the long-short ratio to continue declining, then consider entering more calmly. The market is still in its fermentation phase; staying on the sidelines is safer than blindly making moves. GRVT #SpaceX首份财报超$BICO coin price surged sharply, and it is about to face liquidity issues again!
From my observation, the main reason for the current price increase is not due to short squeeze liquidations.
Rather, it is mostly driven by long buyers pushing the price up.
There is still a practical problem.
There are basically two ways to sell off holdings: one is to place orders in advance, using short squeeze liquidations or follow-up buyers to offload the coins. Realistically, with the price rising so much now, follow-up buyers have decreased accordingly. Also, this coin has leverage limits; very high leverage is rare, so liquidating short positions is not that simple. Moreover, times have changed—players trading altcoins now have sufficient margin, making it hard to get liquidated. Obviously, this method of selling is quite difficult, and with many profit-takers competing to sell, it only increases the risk for the main holders.
The second way to sell is to distribute coins directly without regard to cost.
Currently, the order wall below is very thin; even relatively small orders can trigger rapid price drops, and most people cannot escape.
Given the difficulty of triggering a short squeeze, I believe the main holders are more likely to use the second method to sell.
Therefore, I suggest profit-takers consider reducing their positions at high levels appropriately, securing their profits as their own.
This helps avoid significant drawdowns.
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ $SNDK Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion,
estimated at $8.394 billion
Why did SanDisk's stock drop in response?
1. Earnings beat expectations = fulfilling already anticipated positive news
2. No new, bigger growth prospects given to the market.
3. Cyclical stock at a high level
4. "Just meeting expectations" is enough to trigger profit-taking.
So yesterday's 1483 can be regarded as a recent rebound high point $OKB /USDT Technical Analysis (4H Timeframe)
OKB is currently trading around $85.87, pulling back after testing the $87.25 resistance zone. Despite the short-term weakness, the broader structure remains constructive as price continues to trade within the Bollinger Bands and above a key higher-low region.
Market Structure
The recent rally pushed OKB into the $87.20-$87.30 supply area, where sellers stepped in. The latest bearish candle suggests profit-taking rather than a complete trend reversal. Bulls are now defending the mid-range support.
Support & Resistance
Key Support:
$85.60-$85.70 – Immediate support and lower Bollinger Band.
$85.20 – Strong demand zone. A break below this level could trigger additional downside pressure.
Key Resistance:
$86.80-$87.25 – Major resistance where sellers previously rejected price.
Above $87.25 – A confirmed breakout could open the path toward $88.50-$89.00.
Moving Averages
MA5: 86.01
MA10: 86.37
MA20: 86.34
Price has slipped below all three moving averages, indicating that bulls are losing short-term momentum. However, the MA10 and MA20 remain relatively flat, suggesting this could still be a healthy pullback rather than a confirmed bearish trend.
Volume Analysis
Volume has increased on the recent rejection from resistance, showing active participation from sellers. However, there is no evidence of panic selling yet. Bulls need stronger buying volume near support to confirm accumulation and restart the upward move.
Bollinger Bands
Upper Band: 87.08
Middle Band: 86.34
Lower Band: 85.61
Price is trading close to the lower Bollinger Band, which often signals that volatility is expanding. A strong bullish reaction from this zone could lead to a rebound toward the middle band around $86.30-$86.40.
MACD Outlook
Although the MACD is not visible in the screenshot, the current price action suggests the histogram is likely weakening
$OKB
#OKXOrbitTopics
#OKXTraderVoices
#OKX.ai Latest news, SpaceX seems to have fallen into a strange cycle of "better performance, lower stock price." Its stock price was hammered down 11% on Wednesday, triggered precisely by that dazzling financial report.
Looking at the data, the company is practically printing money: Q2 revenue hit $7.8 billion, a year-over-year surge of 92%, far surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $6.8 billion. The core business Starlink's satellite connectivity revenue also grew 66%, still the anchor.
But the problem lies in the fact that the speed of making money is far behind the speed of burning cash. Total capital expenditure exceeded $18 billion, with a staggering $15.83 billion spent on AI infrastructure alone. Compared to the mere $7.49 million AI investment in the same period last year, this is astronomical. This has caused investors to deeply doubt future cost pressures and equity dilution. $SPCX $XSPCX #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Russia's first comprehensive crypto legislative framework comes into effect on September 1.
Licensed exchanges will list trading for $BTC, $ETH, and $USDT — real asset classes gain a legal foundation. The payment ban remains, but the door to the infrastructure has only slightly opened.
This is a story of liquidity, not payments. Regulated channels mean institutional capital gains a compliant entry point into the region's largest emerging market. The demand side has deepened.
#EarningsRealityCheck $SNDK Wow! SanDisk crashes suddenly‼️
I was really afraid it would rebound during the session, so I took profit on the short position directly.
Controlled it all night, woke up in the middle of the night and shorted it again, caught it!
I really guessed it right.
1. Revenue: $8.97 billion, market expectation $8.48 billion, significantly beating expectations, up 51% quarter-over-quarter.
2. Adjusted EPS: $39.25, expected $34.96, profit clearly exceeding expectations.
3. Gross margin 84.6%, maintaining an extremely high level; data center AI storage business exploded, up 437% year-over-year.
This part, actually, the market has already priced in,
which means the surge the day before yesterday and the night session yesterday.
😓 This is also why I took losses on a few earlier trades.
4. Next quarter guidance (key): Revenue $10.3-10.8 billion, market expectation $10.8 billion; EPS $44-46, expected $44.72.
👉 The midpoint of the guidance range is slightly below market expectations, no upward revision, just barely hitting the lower bound of expectations.
This is the reason‼️‼️
⚠️ Negative point: Next quarter guidance was not revised upward, this is the root cause of the capital sell-off. In the storage stock market, compared to past earnings already realized, the market cares more about future quarter guidance.
In other words, if capital can't see the future, it cashes out,
waiting for the next positive catalyst to re-enter.
Turns out US stock capital invests in the future.
If the future can make money and beat expectations, it continues to support.
If it can only make expected money, then it exits to find the next unicorn 🦄.
Taking a break after the last trade... On one side, there is a $7.7 billion WBTC migration integrating with Chainlink CCIP, while on the other, LINK has barely moved all day.
$LINK is currently around 8.20, with a 24-hour range of only 8.07 to 8.24, and it has underperformed the overall market in the past 7 days. The project has made significant progress, but the market feedback is quite cold.
This indicates that capital is no longer willing to pay just for the partnership list. Chainlink's services do require LINK to pay fees, incentivize nodes, and participate in staking, but institutional adoption of the infrastructure is still far from generating sustained buying pressure in the spot market, as there are factors like revenue scale, charging methods, and token demand in between.
In the short term, I will watch if 8.24 can be broken with volume and hold steady; only after a breakout will I consider following. If it falls back below 8.07, today's news is basically not recognized by the capital.
What LINK might be lacking is no longer new partnerships; the market is waiting for partnerships to truly flow into the token.Growth signal: The Fed has abandoned aggressive rate hikes → pressure on risk assets has sharply decreased → inflows into BTC $BTC ETF directly support the price.
Simply put, this is what Kashkari said: he explicitly stated that the Fed does not plan to conduct aggressive tightening. Why is this important? Because previously the market was constantly nervous: fearing that the "ceiling" for interest rates would be raised further. Now this central bank leader is sending a cautious signal, meaning rates are very likely to remain high and be "trimmed" without sharp surprises that could crash the market. Guys, everyone knows: in crypto, the scariest thing is sudden macro tightening.
#BTCSecurityAlliance 别人都在笑他拿婚姻赌行情，我却觉得他无意中摸到了衍生品结构的底牌。 一个连恋爱都没谈过的模具厂工人，和一条被解锁砸不死的meme币，谁才是真正的明白人？ 我看到这条帖子的时候，第一反应不是看多还是看空BEAT，而是心里轻轻"咯噔"了一下。他把人生选择题交给仓位，这在很多人眼里是赌徒行为，但换一个视角，这恰恰是散户在用自己的方式理解衍生品市场的"结算逻辑"。他嘴上说的是儿女情长，手里下的单子却是对解锁筹码分布的判断。 我们先别急着嘲笑他的选择，来看看他观察到的信号有没有道理。他的核心逻辑其实就一条：8月1日有2100多万枚代币解锁，对应市值6800万美金，这么大的抛压摆在明面上，币价不仅没被砸穿，反而逆势拉了16%，这说明什么？说明在那个时间节点，合约市场的空头持仓密度远高于现货抛压的承受力，空头被定向清理了。他看到了"该跌不跌"的衍生品信号，而不是单纯的K线图。 - 他的偏多逻辑里，最扎实的一点是项目方在用平台收入回购销毁，这相当于在衍生品市场里人为制造了一个持续的买盘对手方，这个支撑比任何喊单都硬。 - 从MACD动能衰减和均线走平来看，他捕捉到的是卖方力量衰竭的尾声，这种技术形态在The sharp decline after SPCX's surge—Is now the time to observe rather than enter? The most important variable to check first is whether the newly formed buy orders around $130 are being liquidated. Based on the original content, SPCX rose to the $130 range during the previous trading day, then left a long upper wick and plunged sharply. This shows strong selling pressure at the top, especially as buyers who entered near $130 are currently holding below their average cost. The MACD is still in a buy-favored zone but shows signs of weakening momentum at the peak. Technically, the short-term support is at $108.79, based on the previous low, with a strong support level set at $104.31. The upper resistance lies between $126 and $130.66, and unless this range is broken, further upside potential is limited. The significance of this event to the market structure goes beyond a simple individual coin chart. The surge-then-plunge pattern shown by SPCX reflects, from a capital behavior perspective, Science post: How to short correctly
Since May, my three most heavily weighted short trades were:
The first short was on eth. At the time, I opened a hype long and an eth short—my intention was to hedge.
The logic was that in the crypto market, without new incremental capital entering, the hype ETF would absorb the existing capital from the eth ETF. From 2000 short to 1600, profit was 5wu.
The second short was on mstr. The logic was that MicroStrategy’s funds were running out, so they had no choice but to issue more shares to avoid blowing up. They gradually placed many short positions from 130 down to 80, profit 5wu.
The third short was on spaceX. The logic has been mentioned in a longer post before. From 160 short to now, unrealized profit is 8wu and I haven’t taken profit yet.
Common features of these three assets:
1. The project/company itself isn’t profitable.
2. The float is loose, with a large amount of sell orders.
Shorting is a riskier trade than going long. On the basis of the principal being doubled, long positions never get liquidated, while shorts blow up if they get pulled up by one times.
So for shorting, safety matters more than upside magnitude.
I generally use the following indicators to judge whether it’s safe:
1. Whether a big surge could happen due to news or announcements.
2. Whether the company/project itself has profitability, and whether there’s any expectation of buybacks.
3. Whether there are forced/active sellers continuously dumping.
To sum it up as principles:
1. Don’t short “meme” coins, because market makers control the float.
2. Don’t short profitable projects/companies.
That’s it 🙂↔️
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#SP500Hits7700 #AMDBeatsButDrops #AMDBeatsButDrops BTC has returned above $64,000, but this rebound shouldn't be rushed to be seen as a reversal yet.
Bitcoin is currently priced at $64,730, up 1.06% intraday, with a low of $63,869 and a high of $64,955 during the session. The price has climbed back above the 5-day moving average of $63,351, and short-term sentiment is indeed better than in the past few days.
However, don't forget that BTC's 200-day moving average is still above $71,125.18. In other words, this looks more like a recovery after a decline, and there's still some distance before a true major trend reversal.
A noticeable feature in the market these past two days is that buyers step in around $63,800, but selling pressure appears again as the price approaches $65,000. Neither bulls nor bears have fully given up, so the price naturally oscillates in the middle, wearing traders down.
Key levels to watch next:
- Whether $65,000 can be firmly held with volume; only after holding here can we look toward the $66,000 to $68,000 range.
- Whether $63,800 can hold; if it breaks and support weakens, the short-term rebound may end quickly.
The most frustrating move now is to chase full positions on every small rise. This level is better suited for waiting for confirmation rather than gambling on direction based on sentiment.
The market never lacks a single bullish candle; what it lacks is sustained buying after that candle. Whether BTC can hold above $65,000 next is the key to the quality of this rebound. $BTC U.S. employment data is starting to weaken.
In July, ADP private sector employment increased by only 44,000, while the market expected 70,000.
But this does not mean the U.S. economy is failing.
The key point is: the Federal Reserve wants to continue raising interest rates but has one less supporting reason.
For BTC, the short-term sentiment leans bullish.
Employment continues to cool down
→ pressure to raise interest rates is somewhat relieved
→ U.S. Treasury yields have room to decline
→ risk assets get a chance to catch a breath.
However, it is still too early to be blindly optimistic.
There are two scenarios for weak employment:
A slow and moderate cooling, which is the soft landing scenario BTC most hopes for;
If the data deteriorates rapidly, it will trigger recession fears, putting pressure on both the stock and crypto markets.
This ADP figure of 44,000 is only a preliminary reference; the real critical test is Friday's nonfarm payroll data.
If nonfarm payrolls continue to weaken while the unemployment rate does not rise significantly, the bullish environment will be more favorable.
The market's ideal scenario has never been a U.S. economic collapse,
but rather an economy weak enough to prevent the Fed from continuing rate hikes,
but not so weak as to trigger widespread recession fears. Short sellers face a "bloodbath"! Is $BTC heading for $68,000?
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market saw about $210 million in contract liquidations across the network, with $142 million from short liquidations and $67.3778 million from long liquidations. Shorts lost more than twice as much as longs.
The rally shows clear signs of a "short squeeze."
Concentrated short liquidations trigger passive buying, further driving up prices and creating a short-term positive feedback loop of "rising - liquidation - continued rise."
This indicates a bullish sentiment for BTC and also shows that the market had previously accumulated a significant number of short positions.
However, a liquidation-driven rally does not mean spot funds have fully returned.
After a large number of shorts are cleared, the derivative fuel for further rallies diminishes. If spot trading volume, ETF funds, and institutional buying cannot take over, BTC may enter a consolidation phase after the surge or even retest support levels.
Pay close attention to the $64,000 to $65,000 range.
If BTC breaks through and holds above $65,000 with volume, it could continue to challenge $67,000 to $68,000 in the short term; if it fails to break through and falls back below $63,000, it may retest $62,000, and in extreme cases, $60,000.
Overall, the short-term trend has shifted from bearish to bullish, but this looks more like a strong short squeeze rather than a confirmed new bull market.
Whether BTC can continue to rise depends on whether real buying interest is willing to step in and sustain momentum after the liquidations end!
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard 🚀 BOOM! Bitcoin Just Reclaimed $65,000
The wall finally cracked. Bitcoin punched through $65,000, clearing the 50-day average that rejected every single attempt for three straight weeks. 🔥
📈 The tape:
Price: just above $65,000
Broke: the 50-day EMA at $64,587, unbroken for 3 weeks
ETF inflows: $170M yesterday, IBIT led with $111M
Range busted: the tight $63,800 to $64,800 coil
This move has real fuel, not just hopium. Global risk is ripping. The S&P 500 and Dow just closed at all-time highs, Japan's Nikkei jumped 3.5%, Korea surged 4.3%, and Brent crude slid to $78 on progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Softer oil means cooler inflation, which means the Fed has more room to ease. Add ETF money flooding back in, and buyers finally had enough to break the range. 💪
But keep the head cool before you ape. This is a breakout from a tight coil, and the next wall is right overhead at $66,000 to $67,000, where the 100-day EMA sits at $67,025. BTC is still below the 200-day at $72,569, so the bigger trend hasn't flipped yet. One green candle through $65K is a start, not a victory lap. Volume needs to confirm this, or it fades like every fakeout before it.
What to watch:
Hold $65,000 and clear $66,000 to $67,000, and $68K then $70K open up. 🎯
Lose $64,300 back below, and it's a fakeout into the range again. 🔻
Reclaiming $65K is the milestone, holding it is the proof. Don't chase the candle into resistance. Let $65K confirm as support, then act. 👀
Real breakout to $70K, or another rejection at $67K?
Not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops $SNDK was pulled up so high before, primarily driven by the overall market, and secondly by optimistic expectations for the earnings report. Now the guidance falls short of expectations, though earnings exceeded expectations. As you know, good news being realized inevitably turns into bad news, and the upper limit of the development guidance is locked in. Anyway, I won't buy at this price; I'll wait for it to drop a bit more and then consider buying.Latest news, an interesting phenomenon appeared in the forex market today: oil prices are clearly falling, yet the Canadian dollar has become the strongest performer among the G10 currencies. The USD/CAD pair dropped by 56 basis points and is now hovering around 1.4005. From a technical perspective, 1.3982 is the 38.2% retracement level of the rebound from May to June; if it breaks below this, the next target is the 50% retracement level at 1.3899, followed by the 61.8% level at 1.3817.
Why is the Canadian dollar strengthening against the trend of oil prices? There are two main pillars supporting it. First, Canada's Q2 GDP data was quite good, and the market remains optimistic about global economic growth and the sustainability of AI capital expenditures; second, gold rose today, and Canada has earned a lot from gold exports over the past year, causing the trade balance to fluctuate significantly with gold prices. So, although oil is under considerable pressure, the Canadian dollar has been quite stable this week. Oil prices are an old story for Canada, while gold is becoming a new support point. $XAU #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $SOXL is directly long on SOXL. SanDisk SNDK fell after hours, essentially because the NAND guidance upper limit did not meet the extreme market expectations. This is an internal issue within the NAND segment, not a collapse of the entire AI semiconductor cycle.
$SOXL will not be completely hijacked by the memory market trend; its components are mainly GPU, AI chips, and semiconductor equipment, with limited memory weighting.
Currently, the market shows sector divergence: NAND is killing valuations, but the AI computing hardware logic remains intact. If funds differentiate between NAND and HBM-computing power, the semiconductor sector will recover, and SOXL can capture triple rebound elasticity. BTC death cross (50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average) — first time in 4 years.
Historical data:
2015: Bottomed about 2-3 months after the death cross
2019: Bottomed about 2-3 months after the death cross
2022: Bottomed about 2-3 months after the death cross
Current status:
The 50-day MA is crossing below the 200-day MA
After each death cross, the price usually has further downside potential
But it is also an area where long-term investors start to pay attention
Key observation:
The death cross is a lagging indicator — it usually appears after the price has already dropped significantly.
It is more a signal of trend continuation rather than the start of a new trend $BTC #On the eve of SanDisk's earnings report, HBF and storage shortages spark heated discussion
HBF just made a big move, but I actually think SanDisk's stock will drop after the earnings report
Here's the conclusion first:
I recognize HBF's long-term value and am optimistic about this round of NAND price increases.
But being optimistic about the company doesn't mean being optimistic about the stock price after the earnings report.
SanDisk and SK Hynix have just announced the first HBF standard specifications.
High bandwidth, larger capacity, directly serving AI inference—this story is indeed very attractive.
But the problem is:
HBF is still in the standardization and sample deployment stage; actual entry into AI devices is expected only by 2027.
What it contributes now is imagination space, not current quarter profits.
Tonight's earnings report is still about NAND price increases, data center SSD demand, and next quarter guidance.
The market already knows too much about these positives.
What everyone expects now is no longer "exceeding the company's original guidance," but:
✔ Revenue and EPS significantly exceeding the latest consensus expectations again
✔ Gross margin continuing to rise noticeably
✔ Next quarter guidance being revised upward again
✔ Management confirming that price increases and shortages will continue
If any of these are not met, no matter how good the earnings numbers look, it could be interpreted as "not good enough."
That's why last quarter SanDisk greatly exceeded expectations but still fell after hours.
Because the market never buys how much was earned in the past, but whether the next quarter can continue to blow past expectations.
My judgment is:
The probability that tonight's earnings exceed the company's original guidance is very high, and it may slightly exceed Wall Street expectations.
But surpassing the high expectations already priced into the stock is much more difficult.
#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops Liquidity is always more honest than sentiment. On August 5th, money was voting with its feet: $BTC repeatedly converged between 63,000 and 64,200, rising nearly 1 point in 24 hours, testing the 64,000 mark. This kind of shrinking volume volatility isn't due to lack of funds, but rather because funds are waiting for a trigger point. ETFs have been active for two consecutive days. $BTC spot market saw a net inflow of $211 million yesterday, with a single institution contributing 170 million, and $ETH also entering 53.75 million. This round is real money accumulating funds. $ETH Currently quoted at 1,870, clearly weaker than $BTC, holding 1,890 and unable to climb, with support near 1,850 below. $BNB is the toughest among the mainstream, rising over 1.7% near 601, showing very straightforward capital preference. $SOL slightly rose near $74, still showing resilience. $XRP and $DOGE have little chance, one down 0.56%, the other 0.5%, showing cold retail investor sentiment. The real excitement is in the volatility levels. $SNDK Financial reports forecast revenue to around $8.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 340%. Coupled with an HBF technical specification with SK Hynix, the daily price jumped from 998 to 1427, nearly 43%. xSNDK rose another 9% in 24 hours. This fundamental-driven surge is more reliable than pure speculation BICO; BICO rose 22% in a single day but chasing the high means buying the stock. HOME accounts for over 11% of Upbit transactions, with Korean capital stirring things up. #SpaceX首份After Wednesday's close, SanDisk $SNDK delivered its Q4 2026 financial report. This is a financial report with almost no flaws. Revenue was $8.97 billion, far above Wall Street's expectation of $8.4 billion. GAAP earnings per share were $43.97, with expectations of around $34. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $39.25, also far exceeding expectations. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 175%. Full-year GAAP earnings per share were $73.76. Data center revenue grew 437% year-on-year. The company announced a new $14 billion buyback program, pushing the remaining buyback quota to $15.5 billion. Next quarter guidance: Revenue $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, earnings per share $44 to $46. If this financial report were a test paper, it would get nearly a perfect score. But this perfect score was already guessed by the market—just look at the price. Two hours before the earnings release, SNDK was trading above $1,400, rising 11% throughout the day. This isn't called "rising after the earnings report"; it's "having already finished the gains before the earnings report." The moment the earnings report finally came out, the price plunged straight from 1353 to 1244, a plunge of nearly 8%. Although it later bounced back to around 1310, it never returned to 1400. This is the harshest reality for the storage sector this year: it's not about the financial report, but how much the stock price has already priced in the good stuff. SanDisk has risen over 440% this year, and even after a 47% plunge in July, its valuation remains high. When a company has already quadrupled its valueTo begin with the conclusion: SanDisk's latest earnings report clearly exceeded market consensus expectations overall, but the stock price fell after hours. This is more likely a case of profit-taking amid high expectations rather than a fundamental deterioration of the company.
This quarter, SanDisk's revenue, adjusted earnings per share, and data center business all maintained strong growth, especially with data center revenue doubling quarter-over-quarter, further confirming that AI infrastructure is driving enterprise storage demand. The company expanded its stock buyback program and signed more long-term customer agreements, which also supports medium- to long-term cash flow and demand visibility.
The main reason for the stock price decline may be that the market had already priced in very optimistic performance expectations before the earnings release, while the company's mid-point revenue guidance for the next quarter is slightly below consensus. Additionally, most of this quarter's revenue growth came from product price increases rather than volume growth, prompting the market to reassess the sustainability of the current high prices and gross margins.
Therefore, this decline can currently be defined as profit-taking at a high level, but it is too early to confirm that major holders have fully exited based solely on the initial after-hours volatility. The earnings call, management's explanations regarding price trends and data center demand, and the volume and price performance during the next regular trading session remain very important.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, SanDisk's data center and AI storage thesis remains intact, so I maintain a long-term bullish view. However, before the stock price completes technical confirmation again, I will control my position size to avoid adding heavily during the volatile period following the earnings report.
Next, I will focus on the $1,400 level. Only if SanDisk's stock price recovers above $1,400 and closes above this level during regular trading hours, and then successfully holds on a pullback to this area, will I consider increasing my position further. If the price only briefly breaks above $1,400 and quickly falls back, it indicates that selling pressure above has not been fully absorbed, and patience should be maintained.
Being bullish long-term does not mean ignoring risks. Continued observation is needed on data center revenue growth, product price trends, volume growth, gross margin, and next quarter's guidance. If data center demand remains strong and revenue growth gradually shifts from being driven by price alone to a combination of price and volume, then the current pullback may actually represent a healthier re-pricing process. $SNDK #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 U.S. stocks fell across the board after hours, what happened?
Tonight, U.S. stocks weakened almost across the board after hours, and tech stocks couldn't hold up either.
I think the reason is actually not complicated. Although many large tech companies have reported good earnings recently, the market's expectations for AI are already very high. As long as the performance does not significantly exceed expectations, funds are very likely to take profits first. The after-hours decline of SpaceX and AMD also reflects that the market is starting to reassess valuations rather than simply chasing AI.
In addition, U.S. stocks just hit new highs a few days ago, and many popular stocks have already risen significantly in a short period. It is actually normal to see a pullback at this level. Increased short-term volatility does not mean the long-term trend is over; rather, it looks more like funds are rotating at high levels, waiting for the next new catalyst.
$SNDK $SPCX $NVDA Use liquidation data to take the market's temperature. In the past 24 hours, the total short liquidations across the network have clearly surpassed the longs, and the volume of short squeezes is several times that of the long liquidations — yet the price hasn't soared; $BTC is still stuck in a narrow range near 64K. This combination is worth pondering: shorts are being gradually squeezed out, but incremental buying hasn't taken over, so the price can't rise. The funding rate is simultaneously prSpaceX's earnings report was good, so why did the stock price plunge?
Many people's first reaction after seeing the earnings was: "Didn't the revenue exceed expectations? Why is it still falling?"
From what I see, the issue isn't the revenue, but that the spending pace is faster than the market anticipated.
This time, SpaceX's revenue reached $7.8 billion, indeed higher than market expectations, but AI-related capital expenditures hit $15.8 billion, far exceeding analysts' original estimates. The market is starting to worry that profitability will be continuously squeezed in the coming years.
Another reason many people overlooked is that the IPO lock-up period is about to expire. A large amount of previously unsellable shares will soon be unlocked, so the market naturally worries about selling pressure in advance, leading many investors to take profits early.
I think this drop doesn't really look like a sudden deterioration in fundamentals, but more like the market beginning to recalculate valuations. After all, the price rose too quickly before, and as long as capital expenditures keep increasing and selling pressure from unlocks remains, short-term volatility is quite normal. Whether the long-term logic has changed, I will continue to observe the next few quarters.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 $SPCX $SNDK SanDisk's earnings report triggered volatility in the storage sector, with Micron plunging sharply before quickly reclaiming 900 — this short position has entered a critical decision zone.
MU surged near 929 before pulling back, briefly dipping rapidly to 867.65, then showing a clear rebound, currently back around 900.
My short entry price was at 917.23, currently still with unrealized profit, but the price quickly recovering to 900 indicates the bears have not fully controlled the market. Going forward, don't just focus on further declines; protecting existing profits is also crucial.
Key levels to watch:
895—900: Current battleground between bulls and bears; holding above may lead to further recovery
910—917: Core resistance during rebound and an important defense zone for shorts
929—930: Previous high strong resistance; breaking through would significantly weaken the bearish case
880—867: Key support below; only a break and failed rebound here would suggest further downside
850—860: Next observation zone if 867 is lost
The next move will not be to chase shorts near 900 but to observe if the rebound to 910—917 can weaken again; if the price stabilizes above 917, priority is to exit and protect profits.
SanDisk's earnings have already caused the first round of sharp volatility; subsequent sector sentiment swings and secondary shocks remain risks.
Correct directional calls do not mean the trade is over. After securing unrealized profits, protecting gains is more important than gambling on further moves.
This is a personal trading record and does not constitute investment advice. $SNDK $MU $SKHY The probability of an interest rate hike is plummeting
A couple of days ago it was still above 65%, now it has dropped to around 60%
The Strait of Hormuz is about to open, and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said an agreement might be signed in the next day or two, causing oil prices to plunge, with US oil falling over 4% breaking below $77
When oil prices fall, the expectation of rate hikes drops accordingly, and the US stock market immediately rallies, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hitting record highs
Trump needs new stock market highs before the midterm elections; this is his leverage. Starting a war to push up oil prices is not good for his votes
The logic chain is very clear: oil prices don’t rise → rate hike expectations don’t increase → the stock market continues to rise
Waiting for a big drop? You might not get it anymore $SNDK SanDisk & $WDC Western Digital Earnings Joint Analysis
Title: Storage Giants' Earnings Released, Sector Logic Faces Revaluation
SanDisk $SNDK has already provided answers after hours; the performance figures themselves are acceptable, but the guidance for future NAND flash price increases is clearly less optimistic than the market previously expected, directly triggering large-scale capital outflows and a sharp drop after hours.
Western Digital $WDC, in the same sector, also disclosed earnings simultaneously. The two companies' businesses overlap significantly, and viewing them together provides a clearer picture of the real state of the storage sector.
Common signals from both earnings reports:
1. Current revenue and gross margin are passable
Spot NAND price increases have been reflected in this quarter's earnings; the reported data did not cause any shock and meets basic market expectations.
2. The real market impact comes from future guidance
Management from both companies expressed conservative views on the magnitude and pace of upcoming NAND price increases.
Previously, the market was betting on a sustained rapid rise in flash prices. Now that expectations have been lowered, the key logic behind this round of price increases is weakened.
3. AI enterprise SSD business remains the only bright spot
Demand for data center and AI server storage is indeed growing, but the short-term incremental growth is insufficient to offset weakness on the consumer side and cannot support the previously high stock price premiums.
$BTC $ETH surge sharply A fierce analysis like a tiger, the rise and fall all depend on Trump～
Today, the optical modules finally rebounded, but then Trump's policy came～
Last night, the US stock AI optical communication chain collectively strengthened:
NVIDIA +2.93%
Marvell +3.31%
Lumentum +9.24%
Corning +6.07%
Coherent +9.60%
Today, the A-share “Yi Zhongtian” surged accordingly, with a clear volume increase in the ChiNext board, indicating that oversold funds have begun to replenish core AI hardware assets.
Just today, Reuters revealed that the Trump administration is pushing the FCC to draft a ban, proposing to prohibit the import of new model data center optical transceivers produced by Chinese companies.
The reason remains national security:
To prevent equipment from being used to steal data, implant malware, or disrupt services.
The plan has not yet been officially implemented, focusing on new model products rather than immediately removing all deployed equipment.
This means the optical module market is beginning to diverge:
US optical communication companies gain policy premiums, while Chinese optical module leaders must bear geopolitical discounts.
Reuters specifically named InnoLight, which holds about 27% of the global optical transceiver market; about 61.7% of the company's revenue in Q1 this year came from the US market, with overseas customers and US AI capital expenditure still important growth sources.
Potential beneficiaries include Coherent and Lumentum, but the cost may be higher procurement expenses for US cloud service providers like Amazon.
Therefore, "NVIDIA regaining its upward trend means A-share optical modules will definitely benefit" is only half correct.
On the demand side, AI clusters and CPO mass production continue to strengthen the optical communication boom;
on the policy side, the US is trying to keep these orders within the domestic supply chain.
In the short term, there is still room for a rebound after severe overselling, and optical modules may continue to act as pioneers in AI recovery.
But in the medium term, what truly determines valuation is not just order growth speed, but:
Which products the US ban ultimately covers, whether customers can continue purchasing, and whether domestic manufacturers can bypass restrictions through overseas capacity and CPO upgrades.PI 대형 이체 두 건, 총 약 399만 PI가 주요 지갑에서 빠져나갔다. 거래소 유입이 아니라 자체 지갑 간 이동이라면, 이는 매도 준비보다 보관 전환 또는 축적 성격일 가능성이 크다. 무엇이 일어났는가 - 두 건의 대형 출금이 각각 약 199만 PI 규모로 확인됐고, 합산 약 398만 PI가 주요 지갑에서 이체됐다. - 출금 시점과 수취 지갑의 성격은 원문에 명시되지 않았으나, 거래소가 아닌 외부 지갑으로의 이동이라는 점이 중요하다. - 향후 30일간 약 1억 2750만 PI가 잠금 해제되며, 일평균 약 425만 PI가 유통 물량으로 추가된다. 이번 사건이 시장 구조에 주는 의미 - 대형 출금만으로는 방향성을 확정할 수 없다. 다만 거래소 보유량이 줄어들면 매도 압력의 즉각적 완화로 해석될 여지가 있다. - 그러나 이번 주의 핵심은 대형 이체가 아니라 30일간 지속될 일평균 425만 PI의 유통량 증가다. 이는 단기 가격 상승을 제한하는 구조적 요인이다. - 시장은 이미 이 물량Brothers, after nearly two days of a dead market, today's volume finally came out — trading volume jumped from a 39% contraction directly to a +52% expansion, and BTC followed with a +1.18% increase. But let me pour some cold water first: this surge may not be a reversal.
Setting the tone first: the first volume surge after a bottom volume often means "someone couldn't resist making a move first," not "trend reversal confirmed." We need to see where the money is coming from and where it's going.
Capital flow confirmed: volume +52% returned, but OI didn't rise; instead, it dropped to 107,600 BTC, and funding fell from +0.0004% to a slight negative -0.0003% — volume increased and price rose, but leverage didn't increase, and the rate just slightly turned negative, indicating this wave is short covering plus spot bottom-fishing, not new longs adding leverage to ignite the market.
Crypto positioning: this "volume returns but OI stays flat" combo is the biggest trap for chasing bulls. You think it's the bottom, but actually, it's the previous shorts being squeezed out to catch a breath; BTC itself rose +1.18%, but breadth narrowed from 9:6 to 8:7, altcoins didn't follow at all.
What to take away — "three tests after bottom volume surge": ① When volume returns positive, first check if OI expands synchronously (no expansion = no new money in) ② If funding turns negative, check if it's deeply negative (slight negative is just covering) ③ Volume surge candlestick must show breadth expansion (a lone winner doesn't count). Passing two out of three is considered a reversal signal; now not even one and a half are met.
Real review: my GRVT long position dropped from +27% unrealized profit to underwater -0.55%, the lone winner also started to leak air; meanwhile, XSPCX shorts took some profit back +1.25%, but still down -9.23% and falling, not hitting my take profit. Both trades are small plays, unrelated to this volume surge.
Heartbreaking conclusion: the first breath of a dead market is worth watching, but don't rush to call the bottom. Wait for OI expansion, deep negative funding, and breadth to reopen — only then is there real entry. For now? Treat it as just covering.
Friends, do you think this +52% volume is a true reversal signal or just a fake move from short covering? Take sides in the comments; if you guess wrong, I'll use it as a contrarian indicator.
Crypto assets are high risk; this article is not investment advice, purely personal opinion.
$BTC $GRVT #BottomVolumeSurge #VolumePriceDivergence #OIDivergence #RiskControlStrategy #TradingSystem #BeginnerGuide #MarketAnalysis #OKXPlanetA financial health check for the storage sector, focusing only on the numbers. SanDisk SNDK reported revenue of $8.96 billion this quarter, clearly exceeding the expected $8.39 billion; however, its guidance for the next quarter is set at $10.3–10.8 billion, just at the lower edge of the market expectation of $10.8 billion — causing its stock to drop over 3% in after-hours trading. On the same night, Western Digital WDC instead issued a strong guidance with a year-over-year increase of +42% to +49%. In the same sector, one is dragged down by guidance while the other is lifted by it, indicating that the divergence in this storage cycle has shifted from "market boom or bust" to "who holds stronger pricing power." Data doesn't play games with you; even in a super cycle, there are winners and losers. $BTC 🔥SanDisk's earnings report blew me away so much I almost dropped my phone. $SNDK
Q4 revenue was $8.96 billion, market expectation was $8.394 billion, beating estimates by nearly $700 million. Even more astonishing is the year-over-year comparison—last year at this time it was only $1.901 billion, nearly a 4.7x increase.
Don't rush to shout "Long live storage" just yet. Last year's low base was because it had just spun off from Western Digital and was still in the integration phase. But even so, the $8.96 billion absolute figure is a record high, showing that NAND price increases are not hype—they are real money coming out of customers' pockets.
Data center revenue is the key highlight. Last quarter this segment surged 76% year-over-year; if this momentum continues this quarter, the HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) story gains even more credibility. SanDisk's biggest potential now lies in carving out a new tier between HBM and SSD.
However, despite revenue beating expectations, the stock price may not respond positively. The storage industry has a pattern—at the end of a price hike cycle, revenue still surges due to momentum, but gross margins may start to loosen. If SanDisk's gross margin does not improve quarter-over-quarter, the market will immediately interpret this as "peak profits."
Also, the mass production timeline for HBF is a key point in the earnings call. Previously, samples were expected in the second half of 2026, with the first AI inference devices launching in early 2027. If management reveals that major customers have placed early orders, the stock could rally again; otherwise, this earnings report is just "a cyclical stock delivering expected results," with limited valuation upside.
For the storage sector overall, SanDisk's earnings report is a strong boost. Samsung says shortages will continue through 2027-2028, SK Hynix inventory is tight, and now SanDisk proves with $8.96 billion in revenue that NAND manufacturers are not just painting rosy pictures—they are genuinely profitable.
Short-term, watch out for the "good news already priced in, leading to sell the news" risk. The market had high expectations before the earnings, so any less-than-expected wording in the call could trigger sharp volatility. Mid-term, as long as AI inference demand keeps rising, the logic of a storage super cycle remains intact.
What score would you give SanDisk's earnings report? Let's discuss in the comments.$BTC just broke through last month's POC (Point of Control)
This changes the script. The July POC was around 64,500, and from August 1st to 3rd, there were three attempts to push up that were all pushed back. On August 4th, there was a volume breakout above 64,000, confirming the double bottom. The current price is just above 64,600, standing above the POC, meaning the buyers are in control — the shorts want to push the price down, but their cost is much higher than before.
But what's really interesting isn't the candlestick itself, it's that the money is coming back.
On August 3rd, BTC spot ETF net inflow was 170 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbing 111 million. August 4th was even stronger, reaching 211 million. Just these two days combined total 380 million, more than the entire month of July.
BlackRock absorbed 280 million in two days; this volume is not retail investors buying. The institutions that fled at the end of July have turned around and come back.
On-chain activity is also lively: active addresses surged to 712,000, a three-month high; large transfers over $100,000 reached 61,800 transactions, a five-month high.
What the market fears most is not a drop, but no movement. Now there is movement, and it's with money coming back.
Of course, don't get too excited too early. The most likely scenario for BTC in August is still oscillation between 58,000 and 67,000. Upwards, 65,450 is the first hurdle, and above that at 67,341 there are 1.437 billion in short positions waiting to be liquidated. Downwards, if 61,445 breaks, over 1.6 billion long positions will be liquidated immediately.
My judgment: the POC has been broken, and 65,000 will decide the direction. If 65,000 can hold with volume, the shorts will really be in trouble. If it can't hold, it will remain in consolidation.
In terms of operation, I will watch the 65,000 level closely; if it holds, I will consider following, if not, I will keep waiting. Breakout means chase, false breakout means exit, don't fight your own position.After the US stock market closed on August 5 (corresponding to early morning August 6 in Beijing), SanDisk $SNDK released its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report, after which the stock initially dropped about 8% in after-hours trading and then continued to decline during the night session. This series of moves was compounded by the storage sector already collectively weakening during the day.
The earnings report was quite good, but not good enough to keep the funds that had been excited all year ahead continuing to be enthusiastic, so everyone collectively decided to "take profits".
$BTC $ETH Purely manual post, not AI
AMD closed at $481.05, surged to $501.31 intraday but was pushed back, with significantly increased volume. Earnings report revenue was $11.54 billion, up 50% year-over-year, data center revenue doubled, and Q3 guidance is about $13 billion. The numbers are solid, yet the stock price fell 7.16% compared to the previous close. The market's reveal is here: it's not that growth is too slow, but unwilling to pay more for "slightly exceeding expectations."
VIX is about 18, SPY only dropped 0.23%, this is not a full market RISK OFF, AMD is being singled out for valuation compression.
$AMD will not be opened for now, observing. Only go long if it holds $470–475 and climbs back above $502; abandon if it breaks the observation range. Maximum single loss controlled within 2% of total capital. Data as of 4:07 AM Beijing time on August 6.
#AMD earnings beat expectations, is growth already priced in? #AMD earnings #AI chip #US stock risk If you want to see whether retail investors have really come back, don’t bother checking any sentiment indexes—just keep an eye on $DOGE. This thing is the purest sentiment thermometer in the entire market, with no fundamental interference and no institutional holdings suppressing it. Whether it rises or not entirely depends on whether retail investors are willing to jump in. As of August 6, DOGE is hovering around $0.0704, with a 24-hour fluctuation range of just $0.069 to $0.0713, and a market cap around $10.9 billion. This lukewarm movement itself is a reading: retail investors haven’t entered yet, and FOMO sentiment is currently at freezing point.
The logic of capital rotation is actually very clear. $BTC is now around $62,700, ETH at $1,845, with Bitcoin’s market dominance still above 56%, and the altcoin season index deeply buried inside the "Bitcoin season" without breaking out. At this stage, capital is defensive, hiding in BTC and not coming out. Historically, for DOGE to take off, the prerequisite is that Bitcoin first completes a rally and stabilizes sideways, its market dominance starts to decline, the profit effect spills over, and retail investors’ money flows from large caps toward high-beta assets—first ETH, then SOL, and finally DOGE, which is purely a sentiment-driven asset. DOGE is often the last leg in the rotation chain and also the most elastic in that last leg, so once it surges with volume, it basically means a large-scale return of retail funds.
The reverse is also true. Every time DOGE moves ahead of the broader market and suddenly pulls out a single-day gain of over 20%, it’s often the starting gun for a FOMO cycle—the early 2021 rally was a textbook example. But that’s not the case now. DOGE has been suppressed by a descending trendline for several weeks; $0.0779 is the first resistance overhead, and the support at $0.0682 has been tested multiple times—if it breaks, look to $0.0642. The price grinding inside the box shows speculative funds have no interest at all.
So for short-term traders, the current value of $DOGE is not in trading but in observation. If one day it suddenly surges with volume for no apparent reason, don’t rush to chase it. Look back to see if Bitcoin’s market dominance is starting to turn down and if the ETH/BTC ratio is strengthening. If both align, that’s a confirmed signal of retail capital returning, and the high-beta market is just beginning. Until then, the market is still a stock game between institutions and seasoned retail investors; if the thermometer hasn’t rung, don’t worry on behalf of retail investors.Earnings reports across the board far exceeded expectations, yet the market violently plunged 6.69%, the storage sector script is all套路！
Stayed up late to review SanDisk's full earnings report, the data in front of me is ridiculously impressive:
1. Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, significantly surpassing analysts' expectation of $8.394 billion;
2. Adjusted net profit $6.162 billion, EPS 39.25 cents, EPS exceeded expectations by nearly 14%, compared to just 0.29 cents per share last year, a growth of over ten thousand percent;
3. Gross margin hit 84.6%, a ceiling-level profitability in the storage industry;
Q1 2027 revenue guidance range $10.3-$10.8 billion, midpoint exactly matching institutional estimates, no fundamental flaws in performance.
Expected that with such an outstanding earnings report, bulls would rally to recover losses, but the market dealt a heavy blow to all holders, a cliff-like drop on the 15-minute chart, current price 1311, a one-sided plunge of 6.69%, lowest wick at 1244, causing massive long liquidations.
Analyzing the candlesticks reveals the harsh reality of the current market:
1. Bollinger Bands completely broke downwards
The middle Bollinger band at 1397.38 has become strong resistance, current price 1311 broke below the lower band at 1332.27, bands opening downward, short-term bearish trend firmly established, all moving averages MA5/MA10/MA20 stacked overhead, every rebound is an opportunity for bulls to reduce positions.
2. Indicators all entering extreme oversold territory
RSI6 dropped directly to 9.59, severely oversold zone, short-term technical minor rebound possible but no reversal signal; MACD's DIF continues deep decline, green bars significantly enlarged, bearish momentum still releasing, no bottom signal in downtrend.
3. Volume spike with sell-off, typical good-news sell-the-news scenario
After earnings release, volume exploded instantly, whales who accumulated longs at previous highs are aggressively selling chips under the guise of “strong earnings,” perfectly replicating Intel’s earnings spike and subsequent drop. Market funds are aggressively shorting due to next quarter guidance merely meeting expectations without growth surprises, no matter how good current earnings are, profit-taking dominates.
4. Trend lines fully reversed
SUPERTREND line at 1395.34, price far below trend line, SAR pressure dots all above candles, bulls have completely lost control short-term.
Underlying market logic
Retail investors think: earnings beat means big rally;
Main operators’ logic: price was pumped from lows to 1483 peak, AI storage good news was already priced in, stock price has fully discounted all earnings dividends. Earnings release lacks future capacity or order growth surprises, institutions use good news to clear positions, violently washing out trend-following bulls with a crash.
Positioning practical advice
Long holders are now extremely passive, short-term RSI oversold may cause minor rebound repair, but heavy resistance at 1332, 1370, 1395 overhead.
Don’t rush to catch falling knives if you haven’t bottomed; volume-driven downtrend, oversold does not mean stop falling;
Short holders can take profits in batches relying on overhead moving average resistance, beware of strong rebounds from short-term oversold;
High leverage holders must reduce positions, wick volatility is huge, easy to trigger liquidation.
In short, the crypto/US stock storage sector can never escape one phrase: good news is bad news, no matter how explosive the earnings, after the advance, only a sell-off remains.
$SNDK
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $SNDK SanDisk released its earnings report, slightly below expectations
In fact, SanDisk has risen a lot and also fallen deeper; its fundamentals are not as strong as Micron's.
In this AI-driven cycle, HBM is the biggest beneficiary, while SanDisk does not directly compete in the HBM market.
The NAND Flash competitive landscape is more fragmented, with Yangtze Memory holding about a 13% share and a higher proportion in the consumer segment, making it more sensitive to weak end-user demand.
SanDisk and SK Hynix jointly released the HBF standard as a long-term strategy, but it cannot contribute to revenue in the short term.
The price of 1TB solid-state drives has risen from about $45 to nearly $90, and consumer "can't afford it" sentiment is spreading.
If consumer demand experiences a cliff-like drop, even with strong data center demand, memory prices may peak earlier than expected.Watch closely—the silk scarf fluttering between the fingers of my left hand is still sparking in midair. You think you're staring at a rose that appeared out of thin air, but the playing card in your pocket was swapped for a prop three seconds ago.
The market has never been a precise technical laboratory; it's an endless grand illusion of fraud. Retail investors always fixate on the dealer's right hand under the spotlight, never realizing which card is hidden in the knuckles of the left hand.
Now, a highly deceptive neon light shines center stage. The internet infrastructure giant Cloudflare silently lifts a corner of the curtain, assigning countless silicon-based agents lurking backstage their own digital identities and programmable wallets, even quietly integrating stablecoin payment channels based on the x402 protocol. Under preset permission locks, these code puppets—who need no rest and have no emotional fluctuations—have begun autonomously processing data, purchasing interfaces, and settling content.
This is not a traditional crypto wallet; it’s a "ghost slot" directly sewn into the internet’s skeleton.
In the professional code of fraudulent magic, the most brilliant trick is never to switch cards right under the audience’s eyes, but to reshape the stage floor beneath their feet. In the past, those self-proclaimed on-chain native factions thought they held the essence of magic, believing that pure on-chain protocols could govern the future flow of funds. But the reality is that infrastructure giants have pierced payment barriers using the lowest-level network pipelines. When silicon-based agents evolve from "information retrievers" to "transaction executors," the focus of this magic show has long changed—not which magician’s fancy shuffle is prettier, but who controls the underground passages beneath the entire stage.
Now look at the gamblers anxiously gathered around the table. On the linked market between US stocks and tokens, the ripples of $XUSAR are violently shaking. Many think this is a sign of some value awakening and start frantically calculating indicators and leverage.
But in my eyes, this is just standard "visual misdirection."
When massive machine networks begin autonomously completing stablecoin transfers at millisecond speed, any fluctuation on the $XUSAR chart is merely smoke and debris scattered by the dealer during sleight-of-hand. Funds are shuffled, pocketed, and re-bet in the shadows, while retail investors cheer or panic at fake moves on the candlestick charts. Whether on native on-chain platforms or internet backbone giants, what they’re really fighting over isn’t how many chips the machines put in, but who becomes the mastermind setting the "mechanical payment rules."
In this hall of illusions built from digits and code, when the puppets learn to pull out wallets and pay on behalf of humans, the audience below has already become part of the performance.
Stop staring at the deliberately revealed card—at the moment code puppets start signing and paying for humans, the dealer has long turned the entire table and ceiling into his mirrored illusion.Micron Technology (MU)$ $SanDisk (SNDK)$ $SK Hynix (SKHY)$
I have a bold hypothesis: the recent days' move was not a reversal but a self-protection. If the Nasdaq index had dropped about 1% yesterday, it would have triggered systemic sell-offs. Considering the current Asian stock markets, especially the technical bear market in South Korea, once this sell-off is quantitatively triggered, it’s very likely that both feet would step down together, which institutions do not want to see. Institutions obviously know that the current index is fully supported by tech, especially storage, so they pulled it up to maintain a safety line.
Supporting evidence is the very strange situation now: storage tech is rebounding, gold is rising, and oil is also rising. This is very odd. Moreover, the big CSP test is coming in a few days, the first one is not so favored, Gemini 3.5 Pro is delayed by Google. When everyone can’t hold the current return rates and capital expenditures, institutions usually prioritize risk aversion, because CSP failing means CSP and storage go down together, doubling the risk. But now, the very counterintuitive choice is to pull it up???
Can any big player analyze what the current situation is? #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 #美日确认联合购汇 #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 The concrete is still setting, but the blueprints have already been changed three times—Italy's largest banking group Intesa Sanpaolo, in Q2, used a structural engineer's cutting saw to directly shift the load-bearing wall of crypto assets.
Their IBIT spot holdings were slashed from 646,809 shares to 40,723 shares, a 93.7% reduction. This is not a decorative trimming; it's the removal of a main beam. Meanwhile, on the same blueprint, BlackRock's staked Ethereum spot ETF was increased from 116,200 shares to 349,600 shares, nearly tripling the position. If you're still watching the waves on the K-line chart, you haven't truly understood the structural details—this is like pulling the foundation raft from under Bitcoin and recasting it onto Ethereum's pile foundation.
More striking details appear in the options table: the nominal shares of IBIT call options collapsed from 2.5 million shares to 18,000 shares, while put options added an equivalent of 500,000 shares. What does this look like? Like a supertall building that, after wind tunnel testing, sealed off all originally designed cantilevered balconies and switched to prestressed steel cables anchoring the basement. You tell me this is routine adjustment? No, this is the chief engineer issuing a structural reinforcement order in the midnight duty room.
Italy's largest bank, the world's seventh largest systemically important bank, completed in one quarter a portfolio shift from aggressively long Bitcoin to defensively short, while simultaneously embracing staked Ethereum yields. This is not style drift; this is active unloading—when the upstream construction site is dusty, smart money always embeds dampers in the lower structure.
And don't forget, the staked Ethereum ETF means a verifiable burned yield stream. Bitcoin's essence is digital gold, a monument in a gravity field. But Ethereum is a framework system with variable loads, cantilevered floors, and even adjustable seismic ratings. The moment the bank votes with its feet, everyone in the market who treats Bitcoin as a belief should re-examine the structural cracks in their contract.
$XMETA is not a bystander in this chain; it is a weld seam on the steel structure—expanding when heated, locking when cooled. When mainstream finance's welding torch turns toward the Ethereum ecosystem, the stress curve of such targets will only become steeper.
Cement strength is evaluated at a 28-day curing period, but capital redirection sometimes only takes a quarter. The design institute has issued the drawings, and the construction team is laying out the lines—if you are still clinging to the original floor plan with inertia, the moment the tower crane turns, the first to sense the sway will be you standing on the top floor of the old slab building.
I have drawn a thousand elevation drawings; the most expensive lesson is always: foundation shifts are never broadcast in advance. #intesashiftstoeth 🔥Cook hawked late at night but left three "backdoors" — don't rush to bet before September
Just finished watching Cook's speech, and I'm wide awake.
Fed Governor Cook, recognized as a moderate dove, suddenly changed tone tonight in Alaska: "If inflation doesn't slow down, I'm ready to raise rates."
It's not surprising coming from Walsh, but coming from Cook, it carries a different weight.
You have to know, Cook previously supported a patient wait-and-see approach. She voted in favor at the July FOMC to keep rates unchanged. But tonight she made it clear: supporting a pause is one thing, but if the data continues to misbehave, the option to raise rates is always on the table.
Even harsher was the latter part — "Inflation has been above target for five consecutive years, and deeply entrenched risks are rising."
To translate: the Fed is genuinely anxious internally. This isn't just posturing to scare the market; some are already worried that the 2% target might never be reached again.
But Cook isn't purely hawkish; she deliberately left three signals:
① Tariff impacts are weakening. The worst of Trump's tariff shocks is over, and pressure on import prices is easing.
② Oil prices are falling. There's news of an agreement around Hormuz, and Brent dropped nearly 5% today. With energy prices down, the energy component in the PCE will look much better.
③ Pressure from the AI boom is easing. This has a wide range of interpretations. Does it mean demand overheating from AI investment is cooling? Or that AI-driven productivity gains are starting to suppress inflation? Cook didn't elaborate, but the market might trade on the latter interpretation.
These three signals are Cook's "backdoors" for the market. Meaning: if these three factors continue to develop positively, I might not raise rates; but if any reverse, don't blame me for flipping.
For the crypto world, the CPI and nonfarm payroll data in the next two weeks are the lifeline deciding the direction of the September FOMC.
Cook's speech today is like revealing half of the Fed's bottom cards: we're not necessarily going to raise rates, but patience has limits. The market previously priced in "rate cuts or holds," now it must reallocate probability to "rate hikes."
This expectation confusion is the worst for risk assets. BTC, US stocks, and gold have recently been dancing to the tune of US Treasury yields and the dollar index. As long as nonfarm or CPI data beats expectations, the entire market logic will instantly switch.
My view:
Now is not the time to heavily bet on direction. Cook has drawn the red line — if inflation doesn't rebound, all is well; if inflation rebounds, rate hikes will follow. At this critical juncture, light positions and high agility, waiting for mid-to-late August data, is much more reliable than blindly guessing direction.
One more reminder: regarding Cook's mention of "easing pressure from the AI boom," if the market interprets this as "AI capital expenditure peaking," then stocks like Nvidia and AMD, which have surged significantly earlier, may face valuation restructuring. Crypto coins related to AI concepts should also be cautious.
These are my late-night thoughts and do not constitute investment advice. Brothers, what do you think the Fed will do in September? 📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 6)
According to liquidation data, the shorts have been brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $4,424,800
Long position liquidations about $273,100
Short position liquidations about $4,151,700
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $23,991,100
Long position liquidations about $874,900
Short position liquidations about $23,116,300
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $47,724,500
Long position liquidations about $4,181,500
Short position liquidations about $43,543,000
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $60,793,300
Long position liquidations about $6,862,900
Short position liquidations about $53,930,400
From the $BTC liquidation data, short liquidations in 1 hour crushed longs by 15 times, a short squeeze blitzkrieg with nuclear-level intensity at the start; the 4-hour short advantage expanded to about 26 times, a full outbreak of short squeeze; shorts still far ahead at 12 hours with a ratio of about 10.4 times, short squeeze spanning short to mid cycles; 24-hour short liquidations surged to $53.93 million, 7.8 times that of longs. The dog whales have completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on BTC—shorts across short, mid, and long cycles were comprehensively targeted and blasted, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $60.79 million. Shorts are bleeding heavily, and the short squeeze momentum is unstoppable. Everyone, control your positions well and avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 5
Two hot topics today point to the same theme: the market is repricing in the harshest way—"exceeding expectations" has become the passing line, and any flaw will be magnified.
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue Doubled, Stock Price Crashed
After market close on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report since going public. Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, a year-over-year surge of 92%, far exceeding the market expectation of $6.9 billion; net loss narrowed sharply from $1 billion to $541 million; adjusted EBITDA reached $3.538 billion, up 191% year-over-year. Management also gave a strong guidance aiming for a $100 billion ARR by year-end.
However, after-hours stock price plunged over 9%, wiping out more than $100 billion in market value.
The culprit for the plunge was capital expenditure—Q2 capex soared to $18.37 billion, 6.5 times that of the same period last year. The market rewards spending efficiency, not the speed of burning cash. Worse, about 911.5 million restricted shares will unlock on August 6, with shorts already betting $24.6 billion. The clash between stellar performance and soaring capex made investors vote with their feet.
💻 AMD: Best-Ever Earnings, Still Sold Off
On the same day after market close, AMD delivered its best-ever results. Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, a record high; data center revenue doubled to $6.7 billion, accounting for 58% of total revenue; adjusted EPS was $1.66, up 246% year-over-year.
After-hours stock price dropped over 9%.
Triple pressures hit simultaneously: Q3 revenue guidance around $13 billion, higher than some analysts’ forecasts but far below the aggressive $14 billion peak expectation; capex surged to $808 million, nearly triple that of last year; gaming revenue shrank 33% year-over-year to $779 million. Since 2026, AMD’s stock price has risen over 140%, and when expectations are pushed to the extreme, any flaw will be infinitely magnified.
💎 Summary
SpaceX and AMD both delivered earnings that exceeded expectations on the same night but were sold off— the market has entered a phase of "not only good, but flawless." The flood of billion-dollar share unlocks, soaring capex, and Q3 guidance falling short of aggressive expectations—these flaws ignored in a bull market have now become tools to hammer the price down. As the AI sector moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," only "perfection" can satisfy investors. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？