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U.S. stocks hit new highs, but $BTC is stuck at $64,000: What is the crypto market really missing?
As of August 5, Bitcoin returned to around $64,600, but overall changes in the past week have been minimal. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Dow just hit new all-time closing highs, with global capital chasing AI, semiconductor, and tech stocks again.citeturn202838finance0turn316184news26turn316184news32
The most awkward situation in the crypto market now is: the macro environment is indeed improving, and ETF funds are starting to flow back, but Bitcoin still hasn’t made a real breakthrough.
On the surface, the market is trading on rising risk appetite, but what truly determines whether BTC can rise is whether incremental capital is strong enough.
ETF inflows resume, so why can’t BTC rally?
On August 3 and 4, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had net inflows of about $170 million and $212 million respectively, totaling approximately $382 million over two days. This number isn’t bad; at least it shows institutional capital hasn’t completely left.citeturn623018search0turn316184calculator0
But the problem is, this capital can only support the price for now, not enough to drive a new major uptrend.
In the first half of this year, ETFs experienced continuous outflows, and the selling pressure accumulated earlier hasn’t completely disappeared just because of two days of inflows. The current inflows feel more like a repair than the start of a new large-scale allocation.
This is why Bitcoin can hold between $62,000 and $64,000 but can’t quickly reclaim higher levels.
Capital is choosing AI, not cryptocurrency
The biggest competitor this round isn’t gold or the dollar, but AI stocks.
Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and others have reinforced the logic of AI capital expenditure with their earnings, and tech stocks have rebounded rapidly. On August 4, the S&P 500 rose 1.8%, Nasdaq rose 2.6%, and the most risk-willing capital is concentrating on AI, semiconductors, and leading tech companies.citeturn316184news28turn316184news30turn316184news32
In contrast, Bitcoin currently lacks new profit stories and new application explosions.
When investors can buy AI companies with revenue growth, profit realization, and order expansion, Bitcoin relying only on “scarcity” and “future regulatory benefits” struggles to attract funds in the short term.
This doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s long-term logic is invalid, but it has temporarily lost the competition for capital efficiency.
Strategy starts selling coins, affecting more than just quantity
Strategy sold 1,638 Bitcoins last week, cashing out about $105 million to pay preferred stock dividends and repurchase STRC. After the sale, the company still holds about 842,100 Bitcoins.citeturn623018news37turn623018news38
In terms of quantity alone, this sale isn’t enough to crash the market.
The real issue is the narrative has changed.
In the past, Strategy represented long-term demand of “buy only, no sell.” Now it’s treating Bitcoin as a liquidity source to maintain capital structure. The market worries that if stock price, financing ability, or preferred stock system continue to be pressured, Strategy might sell more Bitcoin.
It may not become a continuous seller, but it’s no longer a buyer the market can rely on unconditionally.
## What really matters next isn’t daily price swings
I believe Bitcoin can’t yet be defined as re-entering a bull market, nor has it formed a new crash trend.
The $62,000 to $63,000 range remains a short-term support zone. If ETFs continue to flow in and BTC can break through $66,000 to $69,000, the market might trade a trend reversal again.
Conversely, if ETF funds turn negative again, U.S. AI stocks continue to drain liquidity, and corporate treasuries like Strategy keep selling, Bitcoin retesting $60,000 wouldn’t be surprising.
The most important contradiction is now very clear:
**Bitcoin isn’t lacking positive factors or long-term stories; what it truly lacks is sustained incremental capital strong enough to push the price breakthrough.**
Until this issue is resolved, the rebound near $64,000 looks more like a bottoming process than the start of a new bull market.
::Market Overview · Yesterday's rebound and today's three reports
Yesterday: The S&P 500 rose, oil prices fell due to the restart of Iran negotiations, and ISM manufacturing and construction spending data were released. Amazon's market cap surpassed $3 trillion, and the post-earnings rally continues. $SPY
Last night: Palantir surged 12% to 15% after hours. $PLTR
Today: Spotify reports before market open; plus a batch of mid-cap earnings.
The main theme this week is already clear: Last week Microsoft proved money turned into revenue with 43% Azure growth, rising 15%; Meta only had capex without revenue proof, free cash flow plunged 91%, down 9%; last night Palantir delivered with US commercial +149% growth at the application layer.
The market's current scoring standard is simple: Did the money you spent turn into money others pay you?
Levels and background: S&P Q2 profit growth tracked above 47%, RBC maintains an 8,150 target price. But August and September are historically the weakest two months of the year, and the midterm elections are approaching.
The trend favors the bulls, but seasonality is unfavorable, time to dollar-cost average #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 #CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 A Data Perspective · Q2 Report Released, Industry Shrinking
CoinGecko's Q2 2026 Industry Report is now live. I've pieced together the scattered numbers I've mentioned this month, and the picture is very clear:
Top ten centralized exchanges' spot trading volume was $1.95 trillion, down 27.9% quarter-on-quarter; perpetual contract volume was $12.7 trillion, down 10%; stablecoin market cap was $305.1 billion, down 1.6%.
Meanwhile, in the same period: the number of crypto project shutdowns in the first half of the year exceeded that of the 2022 bear market; there were 212 attack incidents, a record high, with an average loss of $5.4 million per incident, totaling $1 billion in half a year.
On the other hand: Tether's net operating profit in Q2 was about $1.5 billion, mainly from U.S. Treasury interest; prediction markets raised $1.85 billion in the first half, ranking first among all sectors.
So the real state of this market now is: trading is shrinking, projects are dying, but those earning interest spreads and fees are doing very well.
In this environment, the only criterion for selecting targets is whether their revenue comes from "things people must do" rather than "things people only do when excited." Stablecoins, liquidation, custody, and prediction markets belong to the former; pure narrative tokens belong to the latter. #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 #西联推出稳定币卡，接入Solana生态 What happens when staking rewards hit zero before 100% of ETH is staked?
It doesn't strengthen Ethereum—it turns staking into a survival game. 🧐
Let's be honest: reaching 100% staking is almost impossible. And if it somehow happened, rewards naturally dropping toward zero would make sense. No issue there.
The real problem begins when rewards are designed to reach zero at some point before 100% participation.
Imagine staking demand rises above 50% of all ETH—as most current issuance proposals expect. Rewards collapse to zero, and the waiting game begins.
Who survives?
Not the solo stakers. Not the small operators who helped build Ethereum's decentralization over the years.
The winners are the giants—organizations with deep pockets that can afford to operate at a loss for months, waiting for smaller participants to give up. Once enough people leave, rewards become positive again, and power becomes even more concentrated.
That's not decentralization. That's economic warfare. ⚔️
Any curve that forces staking yields to zero before full network participation isn't neutral—it's a mechanism that favors the biggest players and squeezes out everyone else.
After spending the last five years working to make Ethereum more decentralized and resilient, I can't see this proposal as anything other than a step in the wrong direction.
So the real question is: Do we want an Ethereum secured by millions of independent participants, or one controlled by the few entities wealthy enough to survive a zero-yield battlefield? 🤔
#DailyOrbit $ETH · After breaking below 1,860, does that slow variable still hold?
When I wrote about ETH in July, the reason I gave wasn’t strong price, but that the chips were slowly being locked away: over 2.52 million ETH queued for staking, accounting for about 2% of circulation, a 44-day validator queue, and almost no one queued to exit.
Now the price has dropped below 1,860, down to 1,841, and ETH’s market share has also fallen to 9.91%.
So we have to honestly ask: does the slow variable still hold?
My view is — it does, but it has never been short-term support. The staking queue locks supply, it doesn’t solve demand-side problems. This year ETH outperformed the mainstream thanks to the interest rate elasticity on CPI day + treasury companies’ accumulation; now that rate expectations have shifted toward hikes, the one with the greatest elasticity is also the fastest to fall.
This is the cost of the slow variable: it won’t save you during a downturn, it only changes the denominator in the long term.
1,800 is the key level this round. If it holds, the staking logic can still be argued; if it breaks, we have to admit that the pricing power this round is in the hands of interest rates, not on-chain.
#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH #CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 Three Dates in August · This Month's Volatility All on the Calendar
August is characterized by "dense but unrelated events," making it easiest to be misled by a single narrative. Here's the schedule:
August 7 to 15: BIP-110 mandatory signaling window (block 961,632). Miner support was only about 2% at the end of July, with a threshold of 55%, so it's basically impossible to pass. But the window itself is a source of volatility, especially for assets related to inscriptions and Runes. Holding BTC itself requires no action.
August 21: eCash hard fork, block 964,000. The biggest controversy is the planned redistribution of about 500,000 dormant coins associated with Satoshi Nakamoto. Different platforms have different policies on the forked coins, and many regulated institutions are not allowed to hold them at all.
August 27 to 29: Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. This Fed clearly provides no forward guidance this time, even canceling the economic forecast summary, so the wording in such informal settings carries more weight. The next FOMC meeting won't be until September 15 to 16.
There is also a narrow window: Grayscale is pushing the Senate to vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess. Once recess starts, the whole matter will be delayed until autumn.
August has historically been one of the weakest months of the year; BTC has closed down in August for the past four years. In such a month, don't bet on direction, bet on events. Volatility around each date is better for trading than monthly gains or losses.
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 #Cloudflare推AI钱包，争夺机器支付入口 #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 Recently, I put together several seemingly unrelated documents to look at. Coinbase is promoting x402, Google is bringing in over sixty companies to develop AP2, Stripe and AWS are providing AI agents with wallet acquisition, and the Ethereum community has proposed ERC-8004, aiming to register identities, evaluations, and verification records for these agents. The market is still asking who the next AI concept coin will be, and product developers have already encountered a batch of very specific problems. AI calls a payment interface once—how do you pay a few cents yourself? It buys computing power for companies, and merchants verify that the money is authorized. Two strangers collaborating online—how can you judge whether the other has the ability to deliver? These questions point to the same future. In the AI era, crypto networks will increasingly resemble the accounts, settlement systems, and credit records used by machines. Humans still control the final authority, and many small transactions will be automatically completed in the backend. Users won't even have to know which chain their money goes through. The machine first encounters payment. Today's internet payments are designed for humans. Registering an account, filling out a bank card, receiving verification codes, processing subscriptions and refunds—this process is already tedious for humans, and even less suitable for an AI that needs to call hundreds of services in seconds. x402 pushes payment back into the internet's most basic request process. The AI requests data, the server returns HTTP 402 and payment terms, the AI signs with the wallet and pays for stablecoins, and the server confirms the result after delivery. The whole process can be charged per transaction, no need for payment1. U.S. Stock Market: AI Continues to Lead Gains, but Valuation Pressure Increases
* U.S. stocks have recently remained near highs, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones close to historical peaks.
* Capital continues to chase:
* AI infrastructure
* Semiconductors
* Cloud computing
* Data center-related companies
* However, some tech stocks show "good news but no rise":
* The market is starting to worry that huge AI investments and the pace of profit realization may not keep up with valuations.
Short-term judgment:
The AI sector trend is not broken, but volatility will significantly increase, raising the risk of chasing highs.
⸻
2. Federal Reserve: Rate Cut Expectations Affect All Assets
The market is currently mainly focused on:
* U.S. employment data
* Inflation data
* Federal Reserve officials' speeches
If:
✅ Inflation continues to decline
✅ Employment cools down
→ The market will bet on rate cuts
→ Beneficiaries:
* U.S. stocks
* Gold
* Cryptocurrencies
If:
❌ Crude oil rises causing inflation to rebound
→ Rate cut expectations decrease
→ The dollar and bond yields may rise.
⸻
3. Crude Oil: The Biggest Risk Variable
Recently, CL crude oil is mainly influenced by:
Bullish factors:
* Middle East situation
* Red Sea transportation risks
* Supply concerns
Bearish factors:
* U.S. inventory increases
* U.S.-Iran negotiations may ease supply risks
WTI crude oil has recently fluctuated around $75-80, with the market focusing on the Strait of Hormuz situation.
4. Gold: Safe-Haven Demand Remains Strong
Gold has recently been supported by:
* Geopolitical risks
* Rate cut expectations
* Central bank gold purchases
However, if:
The dollar strengthens + interest rates remain high
gold may experience a pullback.
⸻
5. Cryptocurrencies: Following Risk Assets
BTC and ETH currently mainly consider:
Bullish factors:
✅ Strong U.S. stocks
✅ Improved liquidity
✅ ETF inflows
Risks:
❌ Federal Reserve delays rate cuts
❌ Stock market crashes triggering risk asset sell-offs
In the short term, it looks more like a high-volatility phase within an uptrend.
My short-term market views:
* U.S. stocks: slightly bullish, but don’t blindly chase AI leaders
* Crude oil: high volatility, suitable for short-term trades, not for heavy directional bets
* Gold: watch for pullbacks
* BTC: follow U.S. stock liquidity, wait for clearer trends Earnings Report Watch｜Revenue Doubles, Lock-up Expiry Approaches, After-Hours Plunge, What’s Next?
Last night, the company released its first earnings report since going public.
Overall data is quite impressive:
Revenue grew approximately 92% year-over-year, far exceeding market expectations.
Loss per share was significantly better than market forecasts.
Net loss narrowed substantially year-over-year.
Logically, such results should be welcomed by the market, yet the stock price fell about 8% in after-hours trading.
Breaking down the business reveals three completely different development paths.
Satellite Internet Business
This is currently the most stable source of profit.
Revenue maintains rapid growth, profitability continues to improve, user base doubled year-over-year, and it has become an important pillar of the company’s cash flow.
AI Business
The fastest growing segment.
Revenue is exploding, but it is still in the investment phase. Although losses narrowed significantly compared to the previous quarter, full profitability is still some way off.
Aerospace Business
Still bearing huge R&D expenses.
Next-generation spacecraft, engines, and launch infrastructure construction continue to consume large amounts of capital, so short-term profit pressure remains.
What truly worries the market is not the performance, but capital expenditure.
Capital expenditure this quarter increased sharply year-over-year, with the vast majority invested in AI computing power construction. Management stated that high investment levels will be maintained for the next few quarters.
Revenue growth is certainly encouraging, but if capital investment continues to rise rapidly, the market will naturally worry whether the profit realization cycle will be further extended.
Another focus is the upcoming large-scale lock-up expiration.
A large number of internal shares will soon enter the circulating market, with the new circulating volume far exceeding the current free float.
For the market, the real uncertainty is not the company’s fundamentals, but whether early investors and employees will choose to cash out their gains.
Meanwhile, there is a clear divergence between bulls and bears.
Many Wall Street institutions maintain a positive outlook and have raised target prices, believing the long-term growth potential remains vast.
On the other hand, short positions remain high, with many investors believing that short-term free cash flow pressure and share lock-up expirations may continue to suppress the stock price.
In the long term, the company has multiple highly imaginative growth engines, including satellite internet, artificial intelligence, and aerospace business.
But a great company does not mean any price is worth buying.
Short-term market sentiment, capital flows, and share lock-up expirations can all cause significant price volatility.
Future trends will still require close attention to management’s execution ability, changes in capital expenditure, and the market’s confidence recovery in long-term growth.
The above content represents only market analysis views and does not constitute any investment advice. The core driving force behind BTC's upward momentum is cooling down. If the increase in long-term holder supply overwhelms new demand, how does the meaning of this range change? The original report states that BTC is stuck within a narrow range around $64,089, with mitigation of shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and S&P 500 hits supporting risk appetite. The Fear and Greed Index stands at 38, still in the fear range, and the most noticeable change on-chain is that long-term holder supply has shifted to a declining trend. Resistance is at $64,300; a breakout would suggest support at $65,500~66,000, and a rejection would set it at $62,000~63,000. What the market overlooks here is the direction of cross-market delivery. While the S&P 500 record high clearly sends a positive signal to risk assets overall, the strength of this flow being transmitted to BTC appears weaker than in the past. While the rise in the U.S. stock market is driven by AI and major tech stocks, cryptocurrencies respond more directly to the Fed's interest rate path and dollar liquidity. In other words, for the bullish market to translate into BTC, the spread of risk appetite is 'The S&P 500 has surpassed 7700 points for the first time, setting a new historical high.
This time, the S&P 500 is truly resilient, surging straight to 7700 points and breaking the record. At its core, this is still a story about liquidity. Market expectations for rate cuts are becoming increasingly certain, driving down funding costs and naturally raising the valuation ceiling. Tech stocks remain the locomotive, with the AI narrative cycling repeatedly, but as long as earnings keep pace, capital is willing to continue paying a premium.
However, the more the market celebrates, the more cautious one should be. Historically, after an index hits a new high, short-term volatility often amplifies because profit-taking is heavy, and any slight disturbance can trigger a sell-off. Going forward, the focus should be on inflation data and the Fed’s tone; if data fluctuates, the 7700-point level may experience several tug-of-wars.
Now, regarding the relationship with the crypto market, which is our main concern. The new highs in the US stock market are a typical double-edged sword for crypto. The upside is that risk appetite spills over; the S&P’s repeated highs indicate the market isn’t short on money, and this easing sentiment will eventually transmit to high-risk assets. Bitcoin and the US stock market have maintained a relatively high correlation in recent years—when stocks gain, crypto tends to benefit somewhat.
The downside is the seesaw effect: there’s only so much capital. If the S&P’s profit-making effect is too strong, some speculative funds might flow back into stocks, diverting trading volume from crypto, with altcoins taking the biggest hit.
My judgment is that in the short term, watch the linkage; in the medium term, watch liquidity. As long as the Fed maintains a loose stance, US stocks and crypto are essentially in the same boat, and risk assets overall benefit—there’s no zero-sum game here. But if economic data unexpectedly strengthens and rate cut expectations are dampened, both stocks and crypto will suffer, with crypto’s greater volatility leading to deeper declines.
From an operational perspective, don’t be too aggressive; chasing highs when the index hits new records often results in the worst experience. In crypto, the key focus is whether Bitcoin can leverage this momentum to break through critical resistance levels. If Bitcoin can’t lead, don’t expect much from altcoin rallies. Keep some position flexibility; pullbacks are the real opportunities to enter. Chasing at the peak of sentiment is likely just standing guard for those who took profits earlier.
$BTC [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Italy's largest bank slashes its IBIT position by 94%, then aggressively buys ETH staking—does this mean Bitcoin is about to crash?
Pharaoh says straight up, don't get misled by the headline. This bank isn't abandoning Bitcoin; it's doing "sell high, buy low" plus "earning interest."
Here's the data: Italy's UniCredit Bank cut its IBIT holdings from 646,800 units to 40,700 units in Q2, nearly clearing out the position. Bull call option positions were also cut by 99%. But at the same time, ARKB still holds 3.47 million shares worth $67.6 million, making up the bulk of its crypto exposure.
So it's not "dumping Bitcoin for Ethereum," it's swapping BlackRock's IBIT for Cathie Wood's ARKB, while trimming some option positions.
Now, why buy ETH staking ETFs? ETHB holdings rose from 116,200 units to 349,600 units, nearly doubling, valued at $7.1 million. The reason is practical—these generate yield. ETH staking products have returns, while Bitcoin ETFs just hold. In a European environment of falling interest rates and banking margin pressure, yield-bearing assets are obviously more attractive.
Pharaoh concludes: don't treat the bank's portfolio adjustments as a vote of confidence. Reducing IBIT and increasing ETH looks more like rotation and carry trade within the crypto sector. The big picture for Bitcoin has never been decided by a single bank.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't lose its way! $BTC $ETH $SNDK #意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH 🚨 The Next Big $SPCX Opportunity May Come After the Lock-Up, Not Before
Most investors are focused on the stock's sharp decline.
The more important question is what happens after the first major lock-up expires on August 6, when a large number of previously restricted shares become eligible for sale.
Lock-up expirations often create short-term selling pressure as early investors gain liquidity. While that can weigh on price, it can also create opportunities if the company's long-term fundamentals remain intact.
A historical example is $PLTR : • IPO at $10
• Rallied to $39
• Sold off after the lock-up expiration as insiders took profits
• Bottomed near $6 before institutional accumulation
• Eventually rallied to new highs
Could $SPCX follow a similar path? It's far too early to know—but the upcoming lock-up will be an important event to watch.
Current milestones: • IPO: June 12
• Early high: $225
• Recent price: Around $111
• First major lock-up: August 6
For me, the key question is whether the $110–115 area can hold once any lock-up-related selling pressure is absorbed. If buyers successfully defend that zone and fundamentals remain strong, it could lay the groundwork for a stronger recovery over time.
The focus isn't on chasing headlines—it's on waiting for price action and market structure to confirm the opportunity.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always do your own research.
#DailyOrbit Gold Breaks Through $4300: Triple Positive Factors Resonating, Market Eyes Two Key Variables
1. Direct Trigger: ADP Employment Hits Yearly Low
The US July ADP employment report released on August 5 showed private sector job additions of only 44,000, the smallest increase since January 2026. Market expectations were revised down from 65,000 to 75,000, and the actual data was directly "halved."
The employment data falling far short of expectations directly ignited enthusiasm for gold buying. COMEX gold futures broke through $4300/oz, surging nearly $155 in a single day, an increase of over 3%, with an intraday high of $4307.8/oz. This is the largest single-day gain for gold since July.
2. Triple Positive Factors Resonating
1. Geopolitical: Frequent Signals of US-Iran Talks
On August 2, Trump signaled that US-Iran negotiations were about to begin. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly stated that both sides are expected to reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz between August 4 and 5. As a result, WTI crude oil fell below $78/barrel.
⚠️ It should be noted that on August 3, Iranian officials denied any negotiations with the US. There remains an expectation gap between the US's unilateral positive signals and Iran's denial, making the progress of subsequent talks the biggest uncertainty.
2. Policy: US Dollar Index Falls Below 100
The US Dollar Index fell below the 100 mark for the first time since June 17, hitting an intraday low of 99.4179. The direct driver was US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indirectly weakening the dollar to support the yen exchange rate—Japanese forex intervention caused the yen to appreciate sharply by 3.9% against the dollar, leading to a passive weakening of the dollar index.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, the July 29 FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% with a 9:3 vote, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting in favor of a rate hike. Fed Chair Powell reiterated at the press conference that "there is only one goal, which is 2% inflation," but the "verbal rate hike" did not materialize, raising doubts about the Fed's policy credibility.
The transmission chain of Yellen "indirectly weakening the dollar" is: Japan intervenes in the forex market by selling dollars to buy yen → dollars are sold off → dollar index weakens → gold priced in dollars relatively appreciates. This logic aligns with the market interpretation that Yellen is weakening the dollar to support the yen.
3. Debt and Credit: US National Debt Surpasses $40 Trillion
On August 2, US national debt officially surpassed $40 trillion for the first time in history, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching approximately 123.15%. Federal government interest payments have exceeded defense spending. The government faces another shutdown risk in September. US national credit and dollar hegemony are under systemic shock, leading to a revaluation of gold's ultimate safe-haven status.
$40 trillion debt + government shutdown risk → dollar credit impairment → capital outflow from US debt → gold benefits as a sovereign credit risk-free alternative asset. This is structural support for gold's medium-term rise.
3. Two Core Variables to Watch Going Forward
Variable 1: Can the US Dollar Index Sustain Below 100?
The dollar index is currently running below the lower Bollinger Band, showing a clear bearish technical trend. Resistance is concentrated in the 100.8-101.0 range, while support near 99.4 is critical to watch.
Variable 2: Dynamic Changes in Three Major Macro Factors
· US-Iran Talks: US claims "agreement imminent" vs. Iran's official denial — how the expectation gap narrows will directly determine the direction of geopolitical risk premium
· Yellen's Exchange Rate Policy: Whether Japanese forex intervention continues and the actual implementation pace of FIMA tool expansion
· Powell's Remarks at Jackson Hole: The August Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting will be Powell's first major public appearance since taking office. The market will closely watch whether he further defines the Fed's policy reaction function—if hawkish signals are sent (increased chance of a September rate hike), gold will be suppressed; if dovish signals are sent (emphasizing data dependence and downplaying the urgency of rate hikes), it could catalyze further gold gains.
---
Summary: Behind gold breaking $4300 is the triple resonance of collapsing employment data + dollar index falling below 100 + US debt surpassing $40 trillion. The subsequent trend depends on whether the dollar index can sustain below 100 and Powell's policy signals at the Jackson Hole meeting—this may be the most important single-day variable for the gold market in August. Late last night, a friend in the group who trades spot long-term sent me a private message asking: Bitcoin has been stuck around 64,000, making people sleepy, and August is historically a month of slow decline. Should I clear my spot holdings and wait for a drop to buy the dip?
I looked at the sigh emoji he sent and directly replied with a screenshot of my spot dollar-cost averaging statement, along with a line: "Retail investors are almost driven to isolation, but whales have quietly swallowed 380,000 bitcoins in the past thirty days."
Honestly, I understand his anxiety very well.
August’s market is indeed a stagnant pool. ETF inflows have stalled, altcoins are broadly declining, and combined with the historical seasonal pattern of "August often bottoms out," the vast majority of linear technical analysts are bearish. In the long, dull narrow-range oscillation, retail investors’ confidence is completely worn down by daily fluctuations of a few hundred dollars, and every day some people cut losses and exit because they can’t endure this chronic erosion.
But I asked him a counterintuitive question directly: "If the market is really going to crash, why are the on-chain coins representing long-term holders being locked up at the fastest pace this year?"
On-chain data shows that in the past thirty days, wallet addresses holding coins for at least 155 days, defined as long-term holders, have net bought about 380,000 bitcoins.
This accumulation speed not only breaks the consolidation records of the past few quarters but also directly drains the liquidity coins on exchanges to historically low levels.
This means that every spot coin that retail and short-term leveraged speculators have sold out of fear in August has been unquestionably absorbed and locked into the deep water zone by these long-term whales.
He was silent for a long time after hearing this, then replied: "But I watch the price stuck at 64,000 every day and feel uneasy. What if this is a bull trap by the main players?"
I laughed at him for underestimating the patience of big money: "A bull trap requires real money to burn. Would the trapper buy over 20 billion dollars worth of spot in thirty days and then lock it dead in wallets? Whales calculate on big cycles of six months or even a year, while retail investors focus on the next hour’s candlestick."
My personal strategy is very simple. In this dullest August, I turned off all contract software and only kept weekly automatic dollar-cost averaging. My position management strategy is clear: as long as whales haven’t stopped scooping up, any seasonal sentiment-driven pullback is a gift of cheap coins to long-term holders.
In the face of fundamental gravity, short-term emotional friction is just a fleeting cloud.
Here’s a question for you: In this seasonal August tug-of-war of dullness, do you choose to follow the majority’s anxiety in the group, clear your spot holdings to bet on a lower price, or stand with the long-term whales quietly scooping up 380,000 bitcoins and hold tight to your bottom cards in your pocket? #On the eve of SanDisk's earnings report, HBF and storage shortages spark heated discussion
HBF just made a big move, but I actually think SanDisk's stock will drop after the earnings report
Here's the conclusion first:
I recognize HBF's long-term value and am optimistic about this round of NAND price increases.
But being optimistic about the company doesn't mean being optimistic about the stock price after the earnings report.
SanDisk and SK Hynix have just announced the first HBF standard specifications.
High bandwidth, larger capacity, directly serving AI inference—this story is indeed very attractive.
But the problem is:
HBF is still in the standardization and sample deployment stage; actual entry into AI devices is expected only by 2027.
What it contributes now is imagination space, not current quarter profits.
Tonight's earnings report is still about NAND price increases, data center SSD demand, and next quarter guidance.
The market already knows too much about these positives.
What everyone expects now is no longer "exceeding the company's original guidance," but:
✔ Revenue and EPS significantly exceeding the latest consensus expectations again
✔ Gross margin continuing to rise noticeably
✔ Next quarter guidance being revised upward again
✔ Management confirming that price increases and shortages will continue
If any of these are not met, no matter how good the earnings numbers look, it could be interpreted as "not good enough."
That's why last quarter SanDisk greatly exceeded expectations but still fell after hours.
Because the market never buys how much was earned in the past, but whether the next quarter can continue to blow past expectations.
My judgment is:
The probability that tonight's earnings exceed the company's original guidance is very high, and it may slightly exceed Wall Street expectations.
But surpassing the high expectations already priced into the stock is much more difficult.
A more likely scenario is:
Earnings numbers look good, the stock rallies after hours for a while;
Then after the market reviews gross margin and next quarter guidance, profit-taking begins, and it ultimately peaks and falls back.
So I'm not bearish on HBF, nor bearish on SanDisk's long-term fundamentals.
I just think:
The long-term story is still improving, but short-term positives are already fully priced in.
Sometimes a post-earnings drop doesn't mean the company is bad.
It just means everyone expected it to be especially good in advance. $SNDK $SKHY $MU #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高
I am Cige. The S&P 500 has surpassed 7700 points for the first time, closing at 7736.52 points, setting a new all-time high. The total market capitalization of its constituent stocks is approaching $70 trillion.
Why did the S&P rise?
Three forces are driving it simultaneously. Strong corporate earnings reports, with Palantir's revenue up 93%, rising nearly 30% after hours; the AI narrative is extending from hardware to software applications. Chip stocks are rebounding across the board: Intel up 11%, Micron up 8%, SanDisk up 11%. Oil prices continue to fall to $75.39, the Strait of Hormuz agreement is about to be reached, and geopolitical risk premiums are rapidly clearing. Earnings reports, AI, and oil prices—these three forces resonate together, pushing the S&P above 7700 points for the first time.
Impact on BTC
Risk appetite in the US stock market continues to heat up, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, should theoretically benefit in sync. However, BTC is currently fluctuating around 64000 and has not followed the US stock market's significant rise. This indicates that the crypto market needs its own catalysts—either sustained positive ETF fund flows, clear regulatory progress, or further confirmation from macro data. In the short term, BTC and the US stock market show some degree of decoupling; this decoupling will not last forever—either BTC will catch up, or the US stock market will correct.
Impact on SanDisk
The S&P hitting a new high means overall risk appetite is at a high level. The storage sector, as a recent leader, still has emotional support. But SanDisk's earnings report tonight is the real test. Market expectations are extremely high; if it only meets expectations rather than significantly exceeds them, profit-taking will be very intense.
What to watch next
The S&P's new high signals a rebound in macro risk appetite. But for the crypto market, new catalysts are needed to break the consolidation around 64000. Earnings season is still ongoing; reports from SanDisk, Circle, and others will determine the short-term direction of the storage and crypto-related sectors.
Cige has finished. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK My top stock pick that I think is still cheap is
$GLW current price $160
Corning is a manufacturing powerhouse that most people overlook. If you’re reading this on an iPhone, you’re looking through Corning’s Gorilla Glass
Nvidia is an investor in them. Corning will build three new advanced plants in North Carolina and Texas. They will increase capacity and boost U.S. optical connectivity capacity by 10x and fiber production by over 50%.
Job Creation generating more than 3,000 high paying American jobs.
Technology Goal aims to support co-packaged optics, potentially replacing copper wires inside systems like Vera Rubin with high speed glass fibers.
The real opportunity, though, is AI infrastructure
AI data centers require enormous amounts of bandwidth. While copper is still used for short distance connections, fiber optics are increasingly being deployed because they offer much higher bandwidth, lower latency, and can transmit data over much longer distances with far less signal loss. As AI clusters continue to scale, optical networking becomes more important
Corning is one of the world’s largest suppliers of optical fiber and connectivity products, and Optical Communications has become its fastest growing and its the highest margin business it has. In its latest quarter, Optical Communications revenue grew 32% year over year, with enterprise networking (including AI infrastructure) growing even faster
The company has also secured multiyear agreements with hyperscalers, including Amazon and a deal with Meta worth up to $6 billion to help build next generation AI data centers.
My thesis is simple. AI isn’t just about GPUs. Every GPU cluster needs an enormous amount of optical networking, and Corning is one of the companies supplying that critical infrastructure.The earnings report was released in the early morning, with both revenue and losses looking impressive, but after $SPCX short-term trading, the market quickly weakened, and market sentiment quickly cooled from excitement. This round of AI-related earnings reports from US stocks almost all confirm a pattern: the larger the capital expenditure, the less likely the market will be interested. What truly worries investors is never the current figures, but whether the computing power and satellite deployments the company has burned through can be converted into cash flow. $SPCX This financial report indeed shows no flaws on the revenue side, but the market is closely watching their over $42 billion capital expenditure on computing power centers and data infrastructure, while the profit guidance remains vague as if seeing flowers in a fog. With cash flow expectations in question, the stock price naturally couldn't withstand the heavy pressure, having pulled back more than 6 percentage points from its post-report high. This round of decline is not a fundamental collapse, but rather that the "future earning potential" in the valuation model has been temporarily drained. Now, all eyes are on the new round of unlocking on August 6, and this batch of circulating shares suddenly expands, coinciding with the window window for major shareholders to cash out. If the Nasdaq weakens in tandem, or if Starship tests and then negative news emerges, selling pressure could trigger a chain stamp. I already placed a market short position last night. The position isn't large but the direction is clear—just betting that my emotions won't recover in the three days before and after the unlock. Financial reports are just a mirror; unlocking them is the real test. $SPCX Short-term trends are likely dominated by selling pressure. If you don't have a position, don't rush to bottom-fish. Wait for the breakthrough and then see how strong the support is. $ETH Last night, it rebounded 1.14% along with the broader market, but at this point, it's even more important to pay attention to risk control, as well as fake and popular topicsSenators Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal have asked the SEC to examine whether the TRUMP token involved fraud or improper enrichment. This is a request for investigation, not a formal SEC probe, and that distinction remains important.
Nansen estimates that roughly 989,000 wallets had lost a combined $3.81B by late June, while Trump-linked entities generated about $636M in revenue. The larger issue is whether conflict concerns can be assessed through a process viewed as independent.
Not advice, just analysis.
#TrumpTokenProbe #OKXOrbitCooling of South Korea's Leveraged ETFs: Will Funds Shift to the Crypto Market?
I think the recent decline in South Korea's leveraged ETFs is worth a close look for the crypto market.
On the surface, after South Korean regulators tightened controls, the trading volume of leveraged ETFs dropped sharply. On July 30, the combined trading value of 16 individual stock leveraged and inverse ETFs in South Korea once reached 124 trillion KRW, but after the new regulations took effect, the trading volume quickly shrank to about 12 trillion KRW, a 90% reduction in a short time. By raising margin requirements, regulators are essentially applying the brakes on overheated leveraged trading.
But what’s truly interesting is the subsequent behavior of the funds.
South Korean retail investors have long been among the world's most risk-tolerant. Over the past few years, from U.S. tech stocks to South Korean semiconductors and then to crypto assets, South Korean capital has been very active.
When high-leverage entry points in traditional markets are restricted, the funds don’t just disappear.
They simply look for new sources of volatility.
This is why I believe this situation is somewhat related to the crypto market.
The crypto market has attracted many traders not through stable cash flows but through high volatility, high leverage, and 24/7 trading. For capital accustomed to short-term speculation, stock leveraged ETFs and perpetual contracts share some similarities: both amplify returns with less principal while also increasing risk.
But here’s a problem.
South Korean regulatory suppression of leverage doesn’t necessarily mean these funds will flow into crypto.
Because what the funds truly seek is not the word "leverage" itself, but opportunities to make money.
If the market lacks trends and sufficient liquidity, leveraged funds will exit just the same.
The crypto market currently faces a similar environment. Although BTC and ETH have seen increased institutional participation, the era of high volatility in the altcoin market is clearly weaker than before. Many retail investors looking for 10x opportunities find the market increasingly resembling traditional finance, with ETFs, institutions, and compliant funds changing the trading structure.
The story of South Korea’s leveraged ETFs actually highlights a key issue:
As markets mature, high-leverage trading driven purely by sentiment becomes increasingly difficult.
In the future, the core of attracting funds to the crypto market may not be "where the volatility is highest," but where there is real demand.
BTC as an asset allocation tool, stablecoins as payment infrastructure, and RWA as an on-chain gateway to traditional assets—these directions are more likely to continuously attract capital.
In the short term, the cooling of South Korean leveraged funds may provide some emotional stimulus to certain crypto assets. But in the long run, the market won’t change its trend just because a batch of speculative funds shifts.
What truly determines the next market cycle is whether there are new sources of capital, new user demands, and new value loops. $BTC This rebound, do you think it's a real breakout or a bull trap? Press 1 for real breakout, press 2 for bull trap. I'll start: 2.
In the past 48 hours, whales have accumulated over 30,000 BTC, worth 1.62 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of 91.37 million USD on August 6. Buying on one side, selling on the other.
When BTC fell below 60,000 in June, it was the same script: whales accumulating, retail investors fleeing, then a rebound. But this time there's an extra variable—after the Coldcard incident, on-chain active addresses surged to 710,000, a three-month high. Some are moving funds, some are changing wallets, some are panicking.
BTC is now above 64,000, with 207 million liquidated in 24 hours, shorts cleared 137 million. Shorts are taking a hit.
But I won't chase here. Whales accumulating doesn't mean an immediate pump, ETF selling doesn't mean an immediate drop. Both sides are betting; no need to rush before the direction is clear.
$BTC $ETH The most expensive move in the endgame is always the one you simply can't see—the move from last night when a single candlestick pushed Palantir's pawn across the baseline, a 29.45% surge like a newly crowned queen slashing diagonally from the corner of the board, instantly bleeding the entire queenside defense. Arm, Marvell, Astera Labs, AMD all surged double digits, both wings blossoming like a well-trained battalion collectively pressing against the opponent's kingside. This scene has no name in chess textbooks, but in crypto's game record, it's called the "queenside pawn sacrifice": what people see is just a sacrificed piece, but what they don't see is that the sacrificer has already buried the killing move in the center.
But grandmasters never focus on which area gains the most material. We only watch one thing: whose "weakness" is turning into a "gateway."
Hays' warning tapped the edge of the board like a retired old player—this AI infrastructure game isn't driven by profits but by debt. This isn't a 2000-style profit story; it's a 2008-style credit story. Translated into chess terms: the entire opening is maintained by a huge "pressure," everyone using their balance sheets as sacrificed pieces, betting that before the endgame, monetary easing will overturn the board.
AMD's data center quarterly revenue hit $6.72 billion, doubling year-over-year; SpaceX's quarterly revenue was $7.8 billion, teaming up with Nvidia to put data centers into orbit—the material advantage is indeed massive, with rooks, bishops, and double pawns all in place. But the classic chess lesson is: the moment of greatest material advantage is often when the hidden attack equalizes the game.
The linkage of $XAMD can be seen as the pathway connecting the kingside and queenside. Every bit of global risk capital AI absorbs suppresses crypto back to the baseline square, like a temporarily retreating rook. But Hays' script has already played out twenty moves ahead: once the AI infrastructure credit chain hits "timeout loss," monetary easing will restart like a forced queen exchange, and that will be the real moment for crypto to launch a blitzkrieg.
What you see is the pawn that crossed the river becoming a queen—I see the slender lifeline behind it, composed of debt and high interest. The truly profitable players have already arranged the entire midgame and endgame before making their moves: the current market's dazzling gains are just the "pre-booked game record" before the next round of money printing starts.
All the pieces on the board are cheering check.
And deep in the endgame, I hear the old engine from 2008 starting up for the second time.US stock market broadly rises, $SPCX plunges over 10% due to unlocking bearish pressure
US stock market opened collectively higher, but individual stocks showed polarized performance.
SpaceX plummeted over 10% in a single day, hit by the dual bearish factors of a massive unlocking supply and soaring AI expenses, causing funds to panic and flee early; AMD also dropped 7% due to earnings missing expectations.
In the short term, SpaceX's selling pressure is hard to ease, with a weak volatile bottoming likely; sporadic rebounds are unlikely to reverse the downtrend, and the stock price is unlikely to see strong momentum before the unlocking event.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ USDT liquidity evaporated by $4 billion in 60 days! The "fuel" for Bitcoin's rebound is drying up — what does the stablecoin contraction mean?
According to a report released on August 5 by the well-known on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, analyst Moreno pointed out that USDT liquidity is undergoing one of the most severe contractions on record. In the past 60 days, USDT's market cap has decreased by about $4 billion net! It is approaching the worst historical levels.
Even more concerning, this contraction is accelerating. In just the past 11 days, USDT supply has shrunk by another $870 million.
USDT's continuous expansion often coincides with Bitcoin's bullish performance; when it enters a long-term contraction, it usually corresponds to weak market demand and price pullbacks. So, Bitcoin's current sluggishness is not an isolated event but rather the main "fuel" supply behind it is drying up! This perfectly explains why recent rebounds have been so short-lived and weak.
Looking back at history, we can find two distinctly different yet highly instructive cases:
Short-term sharp pain, then bottoming (early 2026): In early February this year, Tether conducted the largest continuous burn in history, causing USDT's market cap to shrink by about $3 billion in a short time. What happened? Bitcoin plunged in response, crashing to $60,000 on February 6. Analysts at the time believed that the stablecoin supply contraction weakened buying power, making the market very fragile in the short term.
Bear market finale, then surge (end of 2022): The last time USDT experienced such a severe contraction was in the bear market abyss at the end of 2022. The 60-day change also dropped by more than $3 billion. That contraction marked the "exhaustion of sellers," and the market reached an absolute cyclical bottom. Subsequently, Bitcoin soared from $15,500 to over $31,000 by March 2023, achieving a stunning 100% rebound.
Why did the same "drain" result in such drastically different outcomes?
The key lies in the underlying causes.
The 2022 contraction was driven by extreme panic and forced liquidations following the FTX collapse — it was emotional, indiscriminate selling. The contraction we are experiencing in 2026 is more structural and regulatory-driven.
Specifically, the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation (MiCA) has come fully into effect, causing major exchanges like Kraken and Coinbase to delist or restrict USDT trading for compliance reasons. This has forced funds in the European market to rotate from USDT to more "compliant" stablecoins like USDC, which have MiCA approval.
Therefore, this USDT contraction is not entirely a flight of capital from crypto but largely a shift from regulatory gray areas to regulatory sunshine zones.
$USDT $USDC $SNDK SanDisk Earnings Preview Tonight
Big test tonight! SanDisk earnings report, good performance may not necessarily lead to a rise
SanDisk will release its earnings report after the market closes tonight, a crucial battle for the NAND storage sector.
The stock price has already dropped sharply from the high of 1483, as the market has started to worry in advance that NAND flash price increases may not meet expectations. Funds have begun to take profits early, with the intraday low hitting 1365.
The market is focusing on these 3 key points:
1. Financial performance
Institutions expect revenue around 8.4 billion, earnings per share near $34, and gross margin forecast at 79-81%. The performance expectations are set very high.
Even if the earnings meet the numbers, without a significant beat, it’s easy to see a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. Several giants in the storage sector have already experienced "explosive earnings but stock price plunge" scripts.
2. NAND flash price guidance
This is the core issue. The market is not afraid of current performance but fears management’s soft stance on future NAND spot prices. Any hint of a slowdown in price increases will directly dampen sector sentiment, affecting not only SanDisk but also impacting Micron $MU.
3. AI enterprise SSD business outlook
Focus on shipments and orders for data center and AI server storage, as well as progress on long-term supply agreements. This will determine how much valuation premium funds are willing to give.
Price reference on the chart
🔴 Resistance: 1420-1440, if the rebound can’t break through here, short-term remains weak
🟢 Support: 1365, tonight’s low, this level is the short-term lifeline; if it breaks down effectively, the correction space will further open.
Trading strategy
Market expectations are already very high, so it’s not suitable to heavily bet on the earnings result in advance.
Post-market contract liquidity is poor, and price spikes will be exaggerated, so post-market prices have limited reference value.
Wait for the normal US trading session to see real capital support at support and resistance:
• Hold 1365 and break above 1440 with volume to signal strength;
• If earnings cause a direct break below 1365, don’t rush to bottom-fish; selling pressure still needs to be digested.
📈 Capital inflow sectors:
$BTC • $ETH • $SOL • $KAITO • $CORE • $ZEC • $SOON • $SATS • $ALLO
🔍 Key follow-ups:
$DOGE • $WLD • $TAO • $HUMA • $METIS • $ZKP
✨ Core market themes:
🪙 $BTC｜Determines overall market liquidity
🏦 $ETH｜ETF continuous net inflow, institutional funds support the market
🚀 $SOL｜Core of the public chain sector, highly elastic
🧠 $TAO & $WLD｜AI theme remains hot, funds rotate repeatedly
🐶 $DOGE｜Used to gauge retail market sentiment
📉 Weak performers, underperforming the market:
$BEAT • $SHIB • $LAB • $TRUMP • $SPACE • $VIRTUAL • $MEGA • $IP • $SOPH • $ED
🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
What’s your view on tonight’s earnings release? Recently, a new type of post has appeared a lot on the planet, with content that is single and even the images and text are just large framework copies. The trading is fake, but the scam is real!! Be especially cautious—article "10u challenge 1000u" has content that is all the same. Many people see the first picture and will actively ask for contact information, then private message. What happens next, I don't need to say more. If you hang around the crypto circle, you wouldn't be that clueless.
The first image is their 10 challenge 1000u screenshot. They say it took a month or a week, but what? They only teach stop loss. Relying solely on stop loss, even with 100x leverage, it's impossible to reach 126u. Also, with 10u, to avoid liquidation, even with 100x leverage, you can only hold 5u. If maxed out, the liquidation value fluctuates at most ±300 points (and you have to set it properly; if not set, it drops to around 220). From the chart traces, there are several vertical drops where it almost liquidated, definitely recharging an amount equal to the position value at that time. The vertical spikes upward are recharges to hold the position.
If you don't understand my explanation, look at my second screenshot. This is me going from 0.03 to 191u. No need to look further because I got liquidated (greed).
The method is rolling positions, 100x leverage, starting around 0.03, rolling over more than ten times to reach 4u. At 4u, feeling lucky, I recharged 17u and continued rolling. The exact number of rolls is hard to calculate, but about thirty times. Every 200 points rise, for example from 7200 to 7400, the profit part continues rolling, about thirty times, with multiple sells, profit compounding. A drop of 470 points yielded very little profit, but the rise was fast, continuously rolling over more than ten times every 100 points. There was a dip in between, that's how it happened. At that time, I panicked, about ten points from liquidation, recharged 300u again. The recharge coincided with a strong 3-minute surge of 1800 points. I kept rolling, initially floating up 500 points, rolling 3 times every 100 points. At that time, max was three times (not that I didn't want more, profit only allowed rolling three times). After rising 500 points, it started rolling once every 300 points, so four times in 1300 points. Each roll was bigger, risk was liquidation value getting smaller, floating points less than 270.
In short, I went from 0.03 to 191 in a week, rolling over 100 times cumulatively, recharging two to three times.
Their so-called strict stop loss, turning 10u into 1000u, is pure fantasy!!!!!! 10x leverage, isolated margin 3x leverage, it's impossible unless you keep recharging margin u.
My second picture is real, showing the rise and fall curve with some amplitude, no vertical ups and downs. Know that this might happen only two or three times in dozens of attempts. Rolling over 100 times is already hard to estimate, maybe even 200 times. Also, when the price was low, I recharged two or three times, with over 300% profit, recharged once more. At this time, recharging a very small margin can greatly lower the liquidation point. Originally, rolling to this point, liquidation point could drop at most 300 points. After recharging 30u, the liquidation safety value expanded by 900 points, allowing more rolling times with subsequent rises. The second picture was achieved in February or March.
I post this long text to warn crypto newcomers not to be fooled. The 10u to 1000u [nonsense, don't believe it]. Using 10u seems like a small investment, but after many failures, the loss could be 1000u Crypto exchanges entering traditional assets like US stocks and gold is not just simple business expansion, but a "boundary dissolution" driven by survival pressure, user demand, and technological change. Traditional brokers agreeing to this is not inviting trouble, but rather seeking their own "Noah's Ark" to the future amid the crypto wave.
---
1. Why do crypto exchanges "cross over"? — No transformation means elimination
1. Crypto spot trading has peaked; new growth points must be found
The fee model growth for crypto spot trading has peaked. Trading volume shrank sharply during the bear market, while traditional assets like US stocks remained hot. Exchanges must develop new revenue sources. Leading platforms such as Binance, OKX, Kraken, and Bybit have successively announced US stock-related services since 2026.
2. Prevent user funds from flowing out; keep the "money" within the ecosystem
Bitget CEO Gracy Chen bluntly said: "Crypto users hold a large amount of USDT parked there... They are looking for other financial assets outside the crypto industry." Rather than letting users withdraw USDT to buy stocks at traditional brokers, it’s better to meet this demand on their own platform.
3. Huge "US stock spillover demand" exists outside the US
In recent years, US stocks have remained highly popular, with investors outside the US showing strong demand for star assets like Nvidia, SpaceX, and OpenAI. Traditional brokers are constrained by regulatory uncertainty and compliance costs, making it difficult to efficiently capture this global flow. Crypto exchanges fill this gap.
4. Non-crypto business has become a new revenue pillar
Hyperliquid’s non-crypto perpetual contract trading volume accounted for 99% over the past 7 months; Bitget’s non-crypto asset trading volume peaked near 40%; 52% of users hold both stocks and crypto, and 35% hold gold and other precious metals.
5. Macro environment loosens, compliance path becomes clearer
Regulatory environment has eased since the Trump administration; SEC approved Nasdaq’s tokenized stock trading pilot; the GENIUS Act provides a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins and on-chain assets. Crypto exchanges have shifted from "testing the waters" to "full-scale offense."
---
2. Why do traditional brokers "agree"? — Better to embrace than be disrupted
1. Crypto user scale is too attractive, 120 million incremental customers in front of them
OKX has 120 million global users, Binance covers hundreds of countries worldwide. Traditional brokers face very high costs to reach these users. Through cooperation, brokers can acquire massive new customers at very low cost.
2. Traditional finance’s "infrastructure is too old" and needs on-chain technology upgrades
Nasdaq and Kraken are building a "stock transformation gateway" aiming to tokenize stocks, enabling 24/7 trading and settlement within seconds. Nasdaq CEO said bluntly: "In the AI era, stock trading is still as backward as handwritten checks." The traditional T+1 settlement architecture has been used for decades.
3. Wall Street and crypto are not a "zero-sum game," but a "two-way pursuit"
This is not a one-sided takeover but a two-way integration and complement between crypto systems and traditional finance. Crypto offers 24-hour trading, programmable settlement, and global accessibility; traditional finance provides licenses, trust, and institutional-grade custody.
4. Typical case: NYSE parent company ICE and OKX form a joint venture
In June 2026, NYSE parent ICE and OKX announced a 50:50 joint venture OKXICE aiming to obtain US broker-dealer and futures commission merchant licenses. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo serves as co-chair. ICE senior VP said this is "infrastructure construction defining how global markets will operate for decades to come."
5. Traditional brokers are also "crypto-ifying" in reverse
Robinhood launched Robinhood Chain (Ethereum L2) with nearly 28 million customers, allowing users to trade stock tokens directly on-chain. Charles Schwab launched Bitcoin and Ethereum trading. Both sides are meeting at the same endpoint: becoming the user’s sole financial account.
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3. The underlying logic of cooperation: Alpaca model — "introducing broker + clearing broker"
Taking Binance as an example, its US stock business adopts a layered compliance structure of "introducing broker + clearing broker":
· Binance: front-end entry, responsible for customer acquisition
· Nest Trading (Binance’s own entity): introducing broker, responsible for order relay and compliance
· Alpaca Securities: SEC-registered, FINRA and SIPC member licensed broker, responsible for trade execution, clearing, settlement, and asset custody
Binance also holds a minority stake in Alpaca, receiving 50% of its payment for order flow (PFOF) and 65% of the residual profit from user stock lending. Brokers earn compliance and custody fees; exchanges earn traffic and revenue share — each gets what they need.
---
Summary
Crypto exchanges engage in non-crypto trading because without it they will lose users, revenue, and the future; traditional brokers agree to cooperate because without embracing change they will be eliminated by the times. This is not a "who eats whom" war but an evolution toward a "universal financial gateway." Ultimately, users will have a unified account operating 24/7, covering all global assets — and the terms "crypto exchange" and "traditional broker" may become history like "film cameras."
$BTC PLTR surged about 15% quickly after the market opened, with extremely active intraday turnover, breaking the previous curse of selling off immediately after four consecutive quarters of positive earnings.
Market sentiment: Extremely strong bullish
Key signals: Q2 revenue surged 93% year-over-year to $1.94 billion (far exceeding the market expectation of $1.81 billion), with adjusted EPS reaching $0.41.
Among them, U.S. commercial revenue exploded 149% to $764 million, and net dollar retention rate jumped to 157%. The company simultaneously raised its full-year 2026 revenue and cash flow guidance significantly across the board.
Analysis: The commercialization process of enterprise-level AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) has shifted from pilot validation to large-scale production deployment, with the proportion of large contract orders over $10 million rapidly increasing.
An adjusted free cash flow margin as high as 63% and a cash reserve exceeding $9.2 billion on the books prove that its growth is not reliant on high capital expenditure burn but has a very strong real cash-generating capability.
The market is re-anchoring its pricing logic on sovereign AI and enterprise data autonomy.The load-bearing wall has cracked.
That 8-K form is essentially a construction accident report. MSTR’s so-called “never sell” Bitcoin skyscraper just chiseled off 1,638 bricks from its load-bearing wall, at an average price of $63,957 — lower than the $75,419 cost when they originally poured the concrete. This isn’t just an adjustment; it’s a structural damage report.
Look at the construction log: in early July, they dismantled 3,588 bricks, exchanged for $216 million in cash, then paused for four weeks. This round, the removal volume is less than half. 299,843 bricks have physically moved on-chain, like a tower crane lifting a container off the top floor, but no new blueprint has been filled in yet. Where did the bricks go? To pay 12% preferred stock dividends — that thing is like the decorative glass curtain wall on the building’s facade, looking shiny but rattling in the wind.
Retail investors always focus on the renderings in the whitepaper, thinking that’s the vision. I only look at the concrete test reports on the construction site. MSTR’s core conflict now isn’t bullish or bearish; it’s that its cash flow waterfall has broken: Bitcoin is its only load-bearing wall, preferred stock is the fire escape promised to creditors. Now the load-bearing wall is impairing, the fire escape is discounting, and the buyback plan — only when the preferred stock price rebounds close to the issue price, meaning that glass curtain wall lights up again — will the tower crane start turning again. That crack now is still 10% slope away from repair.
I’ve been drawing blueprints for twenty years; the biggest taboo is treating estimated costs as settled costs. The base inventory of 842,138 bricks is still there, but this batch of dismantled bricks is priced below book value, meaning the building’s accounting foundation is sinking. Worse, the dismantling action itself transmits into the market’s bending moment diagram: everyone knows the water pump only starts when the water level drops below the red line.
This building is still growing taller, but every time it’s reinforced, an old brick must be removed first. #mstrsells1638btcGold Breaks Through
Today, gold successfully broke through the 50-day moving average at the $4200 mark, and after stabilizing, it further broke through $4300.
According to the previously mentioned 50-day/200-day method, this is worth paying attention to. The next resistance level is the 200-day moving average at $4500. If it breaks through again, it will completely open up the upper range. But if it fails to break $4500, taking some profits and preparing for a swing trade is also a comfortable approach.
Several key reasons for gold's strength:
· Weak dollar: Middle East tensions quickly cooled down, with Iran and Oman reaching a consensus on shipping routes tonight; the yen strengthening suppresses the dollar
· US debt ceiling surpasses 40 trillion: combined with government shutdown concerns in September, this lowers dollar credit
· Poor performance from Washington: July meeting slogans suggested replacing Fed rate hikes with US debt, angering the market
· Weak July non-farm payrolls: 44,000, below expectations; poor non-farm data increases the probability of rate cuts
The next movement of gold—whether it will soar or gradually consolidate—depends on the dollar index, that is, the situation of the dollar, yen, and US debt combination.
Currently, this puzzle is quite difficult to solve: Japan's fiscal issues, massive carry trades, and the US debt ceiling. Washington's June performance once gave me the illusion that a hawkish chair could support US debt, but the second time it failed, and the market took a hard fall. However, I will not underestimate Bessent's ability; after the window check, there might still be moves.
In the mid-term view, the window for gold has already opened. As for how to allocate, what position size, what leverage, swing trade or long-term, there is no one-size-fits-all answer; everyone should operate according to their own capability. Just a reminder for newcomers unfamiliar with gold: do not heavily invest; 5-10% as a household allocation is sufficient. AI remains the main theme currently.
Today, the A-share market is strong, optical modules are performing well, continuing to stabilize and recover. Slightly adding back the previously reduced positions, around 70% is appropriate.
The above is only personal opinion, not investment advice; please be aware of risks. First, the important conclusion: Around the time SanDisk's earnings report is released, the probability of significant market volatility increases. Therefore, the most important thing at this stage is not to try to predict the earnings direction in advance, but to proactively reduce positions and leverage, controlling the impact of a single event on the account principal.
Earnings trading carries obvious uncertainty. Even if revenue and earnings per share exceed market consensus expectations, if the beat is insufficient, next quarter's guidance is below market implied expectations, or the stock price has already priced in optimistic results, the earnings release may still trigger profit-taking. Therefore, I will not make heavy position decisions solely based on the earnings headline or the first round of after-hours price movements.
For this earnings report, I will focus on SanDisk's revenue, adjusted earnings per share, gross margin, and next quarter's guidance, while also observing whether enterprise SSDs, data center revenue, NAND prices, and hyperscale cloud customer demand continue to strengthen. Among these, the importance of future guidance and data center business performance outweighs whether quarterly profits slightly beat expectations.
If SanDisk's earnings and subsequent guidance continue to confirm strong AI data center storage demand and growth in enterprise SSD orders, and cloud providers' capital expenditure expectations do not weaken, this will further validate the prosperity of the AI infrastructure industry chain and strengthen my confidence in continuing to hold Micron.
If SanDisk's earnings are weak, I will not mechanically liquidate Micron just because of a stock price drop. Instead, I will first determine the source of the negative news. If the issues mainly stem from SanDisk's own NAND pricing, inventory, gross margin, or company execution, the impact on Micron's mid-to-long-term logic is relatively limited; only when the earnings clearly show a substantial slowdown in data center demand, enterprise storage orders, or large cloud customer spending will I reduce or even exit Micron positions and wait to reassess after the risk is released.
Regardless of the outcome, reducing positions before earnings, avoiding high leverage, and not chasing or panicking during the first round of sharp volatility are currently more important strategies. Market opportunities always exist, but once principal suffers irrecoverable losses, no subsequent good market conditions can be participated in. The premise of staying in the market long-term is not to be right every time, but to control losses when wrong. $SNDK #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 The future of exchanges will not stop at being "all-in-one exchanges" but will move towards a deeper transformation—becoming the underlying operating system of the next-generation global finance.
🌐 1. From "Single Track" to "All-Rounder"
This wave is essentially exchanges "self-rescuing". Leading centralized exchanges have seen spot trading volumes shrink by 70-80% from their peaks, while on the other hand, non-crypto contract trading volume on Hyperliquid has reached 99%, forcing them to seek new paths.
Today, the routes of major exchanges are very clear: Binance (directly connected to brokers) offers over 7,000 US stocks and ETFs commission-free to non-US users; Bitget (tokenization route) rToken supports over 600 US stocks and ETFs; Coinbase champions the "Everything Exchange" banner, planning to integrate stocks, options, commodities, and AI advisory; Gate.io integrates five asset types including CFDs, perpetual contracts, and Pre-IPO through unified accounts.
🤝 2. The "Mutual Pursuit" of Two Camps
The boundary between crypto exchanges and traditional brokers is becoming blurred. Crypto exchanges are extending upwards to access real stock trading; traditional brokers are extending downwards, such as Charles Schwab launching Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, and Robinhood actively embracing crypto assets.
Ultimately, both sides will meet at the same destination: becoming the user's sole financial account.
🚀 3. The Ultimate Form: Far Beyond "All-in-One Exchanges"
The final form of exchanges may consist of four core layers:
1. Super Financial App: Binance’s co-CEO clearly stated the goal to become a "Financial Super App," aiming to serve 3 billion users worldwide. Coinbase is also shifting from a "crypto exchange" to a "full-asset broker."
2. AI-Native Financial Infrastructure: AI agents will autonomously conduct on-chain trading, payments, and asset management. Coinbase is already building a platform for AI agents. At that time, many exchange clients may no longer be humans.
3. 24/7 Global Pricing Center: In February this year, during CME’s market closure, Hyperliquid’s WTI crude oil contracts absorbed about 80% of subsequent price fluctuations. In the future, pricing power for key assets may first be realized on-chain.
4. Unified Clearing and Settlement Layer: In the future, a unified margin account across assets and exchanges may be realized, allowing all asset trading and settlement with a single account.
⚖️ 4. The "Achilles' Heel" of Regulation
However, the biggest uncertainty in this transformation remains regulation. The SEC has urgently halted tokenized stock exemption plans, and the American Securities Transfer Association has warned of risks with third-party tokenized stocks. However, if the CLARITY Act passes, it will provide the most comprehensive federal regulatory framework for "all-in-one exchanges" to date.
💎 Summary
The future of exchanges is neither "crypto exchanges" nor "all-in-one exchanges," but the next-generation global financial "underlying operating system"—a 24/7, AI-driven, unified financial market infrastructure connecting all global asset classes.
By then, the term "crypto exchange" will become as outdated as "online bookstore." Just as Amazon initially sold only books but has become the "store of everything," today’s crypto exchanges are writing their own "store of everything finance" story.
$OKB $HYPE $BNB Storage Cycle Outlook (August 2026 Edition): Hardware in the Super Cycle Main Uptrend, Crypto Storage Tokens Waiting for the End of the Bear and the October Bell
The term "storage" in the summer of 2026 points to two completely different markets—on one side, the hardware super cycle driven by NAND/DRAM/HBM capacity being snapped up by AI; on the other, crypto storage tokens like FIL/AR/STORJ waiting at the bear market bottom for halving and AI narrative fulfillment. Both are called "storage cycle," but they are out of phase by a full cycle.
Hardware Storage: AI Rewrites the Cycle, Main Uptrend Lasting at Least Until 2027
This round is not a typical 3–4 year inventory cycle rebound. AI inference and training have turned HBM, enterprise SSDs, and DDR5 into compute bottlenecks. Manufacturers are allocating over 70% of new capacity to HBM/server DRAM, continuously squeezing out consumer DRAM and NAND.
Prices: DDR4 8Gb contract price surged to $24 in July (+109% year-to-date), 128Gb MLC NAND broke $30 (+218% year-to-date); UBS raised Q3 DRAM quarter-on-quarter forecast to +32%, NAND to +30%, with Q4 still bullish.
Supply and Demand: DRAM demand in 2027 is expected to grow 36.2%, supply only 19.3%, widening the gap to -13.6%; HBM capacity for 2026–2027 is locked by long-term contracts with Nvidia/Microsoft/Google, making 2027 the "most storage-starved year" in the industry.
Turning Point: New fabs take 18–24 months to build; Micron Hiroshima and SK Hynix Cheongju new capacity will only be commercialized in 2028; consumer SSD price drop window earliest in late 2027; DRAM tight balance until early 2028.
Hardware Storage Cycle Position: Mid-main uptrend, price increase slope converging from Q3 but remaining high; industry logic shifts from cyclical goods to AI infrastructure assets.
Crypto Storage Tokens: Bottoming at Bear End, October FIL Halving Is Their Own Switch
Hardware prices are crazy, but FIL hasn’t benefited—decentralized storage doesn’t consume original manufacturer chips, and AI companies won’t buy FIL just because NAND is expensive; there is no cash conduit in between.
FIL Cycle Position: Long-term bottom oscillation, bubble clearing, in a market with fear and greed index at 14, it belongs to the left-side observation zone; around 2026/10/15 the first block reward halving (32→16 FIL/block) occurs, annual inflation drops from 18% to 7%, combined with SAFT/team 6-year unlocks expiring the same day, daily new circulating supply drops from ~251,000 to ~54,000 (selling pressure down about 78%).
Real Demand Shortfall: Network effective storage power ~16 EiB, but actual paid storage utilization only about 7%; a small production cut in 2024 once "exhausted the good news" and crashed over 80%; halving ≠ price surge.
AR / STORJ: AR+AO bets on permanent storage + verifiable AI training history; STORJ relies on S3 compatibility to nibble at enterprise edge backups. Common problem for all three—AI storage super cycle is cash flow for MU/SK Hynix, but on the crypto side it’s just retail sentiment spillover.
Crypto Storage Cycle Position: Late bear bottom building, waiting for October halving expectation trading, reversal not confirmed; true reversal threshold is FIL’s real paid usage climbing over 20%, not NAND news.
Conclusion on the Misalignment of the Two Cycles
Hardware Storage: What you’re buying now is shortage + AI capex, cycle in mid-main uptrend, turning point expected in 2H 2027–2028 capacity.
Crypto Storage Tokens: What you’re buying now is bear bottom chips + halving option + AI narrative option, cycle in late bottom building, weakly correlated with NAND price increases.
Don’t infer "FIL will rise" just because "Micron hits new highs"—the former is priced by token inflation + ecosystem adoption, the latter by supply gap pricing. Hot hardware cycle ≠ crypto storage token cycle start; the latter’s own bell rings in October 2026, and even then it’s likely to dip first before demand talks.
$SNDK $SPCX $SKHYNIX From the perspective of operational fundamentals alone, this earnings report is impressive: revenue and profits have surged significantly, AI storage business orders are abundant, gross margin remains at a high industry level, and the quality of operations is considerable.
However, from the secondary market competition perspective, there are hidden concerns: market expectations have already been fully priced in, and institutional forecasts exceed the company's performance ceiling. Merely meeting its own guidance would be seen as falling short of expectations; only a substantial earnings beat combined with optimistic long-term outlook can stimulate stock price strength. Coupled with the cyclical nature of storage, investors worry that the peak of the boom has been reached, leaving very little margin for error in the earnings report.
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 $BTC $SNDK $ETH finally started regularly giving cash to traditional funds, but the price was still hovering around $1867, and over the past week it even underperformed $BTC. I think this contrast is worth discussing more than just talking about price fluctuations. This time, the ETF has gained an additional cash proceed. According to documents submitted by Grayscale to the SEC, ETHE plans to change the trust agreement around August 7. The staking rewards received by the fund must be cashed out at least once every quarter, and after deducting fees, the cash is distributed to holders. In January this year, they split once, paying $0.083178 per share. This time, the change is that staking returns will be distributed within a more fixed quarterly distribution framework. With this change, the institutional story behind ETH has become much easier to understand. In the past, when buying ETFs, you could only wait for the coin to rise. Now with a staked cash deposit, you don't have to prepare your own wallet, run validator nodes, or deal with all the on-chain hassles. Early spot ETH ETFs lacked staking functionality, and at the time, some said this made them less attractive to funds seeking yield. The positive news is quite clear: prices failed to keep up on August 5, BTC returned to around $64,000, ETH only rose about 0.41%, and the price was around 1,867, still down 2.41% over the week. This recovery is mainly driven by oil prices, US Treasury yields, and the dollar decline, while spot buying in crypto remains cautious. The reason is straightforward. Quarterly allocations cover just a few funds, and the scale is not yet enough to change the entire ETH market99% of trading volume is actually unrelated to crypto? Your exchange has long since "betrayed" you.
-
1/ Data doesn't lie$
Over the past 7 months, Hyperliquid's perpetual contract trading volume for non-cryptocurrency assets accounted for 99%. About 40% of Bitget's trading volume comes from non-crypto assets. Gate has launched over 440 CFD instruments—forex, gold, US stocks, global indices, commodities, everything you can imagine.
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2/ Binance: 7,000 US stocks, zero commission, starting from $5
Binance has launched over 7,000 US stocks and ETFs, and introduced bStocks allowing users to tokenize stocks for 24/7 trading. Today, Binance alone accounts for 55.7% of global RWA derivatives trading volume.
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3/ OKX: Joint venture with NYSE parent company
OKX and ICE, the parent company of NYSE, established OKXICE to launch X-Perps for European users, covering the "Big Seven Tech Giants," gold, silver, crude oil, SPY, QQQ.
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4/ Gate: One account, five asset types
Gate enables one-stop trading of five asset types—CFD contracts, perpetual contracts, spot tokens, Pre-IPO, and crypto assets—through a unified account.
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5/ Coinbase: From crypto exchange to "all-in-one exchange"
Coinbase is advancing a strategic transformation, planning to integrate stocks, options, prediction markets, and AI investment execution tools, with the ambition to become users' sole financial account.
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6/ Why? — To prevent capital outflow from the platform
When Bitcoin markets were sluggish, users withdrew USDT to buy stocks and gold via brokers. Now exchanges simply offer whatever you want to buy. From "keeping the money" to "keeping the people," exchanges are becoming users' only financial gateway.
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7/ But there's a problem — "What exactly are you buying?"
Within the same app, you might simultaneously hold three completely different things: real stocks (directly connected to brokers), tokenized stocks (1:1 mapping), and price contracts (pure betting). They look alike and operate alike, but their legal statuses differ drastically. The SEC has already targeted this gray area.
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8/ Conclusion: Crypto exchanges are becoming "all-in-one exchanges"
They are no longer just "crypto trading platforms" but global 24/7 financial market gateways based on blockchain, settled in stablecoins, covering both crypto and traditional assets. The boundary between traditional finance and the crypto world is disappearing at an unprecedented speed.
$BTC $HYPE $OKB Going to sleep
Can't even break 1900
Can you still liquidate me?
Holding 50 $ETH short positions
Opening average price 1864.71
Currently floating loss about 1200U
Liquidation line at 1944
Stubborn as I am
It's only 2.94% away from liquidation now
Not truly safe yet
——
ETH surged near 1896 but was pushed back
1900—1950 is the toughest resistance zone recently
Capital depth also leans toward selling
As long as the hourly chart can't hold above 1900
$SNDK's recent rally looks more like a bull trap to sweep longs
Not a valid breakout
Looking down first at 1870
If broken, then 1855—1840
Around 1839 there is another batch of long liquidation risk
Once broken through
It can easily crash further toward 1800
Contract open interest is close to $26.9 billion
The more leveraged funds piled up
The easier the market suddenly sweeps one side
I tend to clear out the chasing longs first
——
But the bulls aren't without support
$SPCX Ethereum spot ETF had a single-day inflow of about 23,222 ETH
Institutional buying is still supporting the bottom
So don't expect a direct waterfall drop to 1800
The real big volatility point is the Nonfarm on the 7th
Latest ADP employment only 44,000
Below the expected 75,000
Weak data will reduce rate hike pressure
Theoretically, this is actually good for risk assets
So the biggest risk for shorts
Is a sudden pump to liquidate shorts before Nonfarm
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 $SNDK Looking at the performance alone: very impressive
Revenue and profits surged, AI storage orders are sufficient, gross margin is at a high level in the industry, fundamentals are very strong.
2. From the stock market perspective: risk is very high, not considered positive
Market expectations are already maxed out, institutional forecasts exceed the company's performance ceiling.
Meeting only the company’s expectations will be seen as underperforming; only a significant overachievement plus optimistic next quarter outlook will drive the stock price up.
Additionally, storage is a cyclical industry, and investors worry about a decline in market conditions, resulting in extremely low tolerance for errors. $BTC $ETH Will tonight's employment data send BTC to the moon?
$BTC has now reached around 64600, just a few hundred dollars away from 65000.
As long as tonight's data cooperates even a little, pushing the price up sharply is not difficult.
At 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight, the US will simultaneously release initial jobless claims, Q2 productivity, and unit labor costs. The market currently expects initial jobless claims to be about 211,000, while the previous value was only 197,000.
Putting these data together, the market mainly wants to figure out one question: Has the US employment situation started to loosen?
If initial jobless claims rise back above 210,000 and labor costs also decline, the market might think the Fed has less reason to continue raising rates. In this case, as long as the dollar and US Treasury yields weaken, it wouldn't be surprising for BTC to reach 65000.
But on the other hand, if the number of jobless claims remains low and labor costs stay high, the situation won't be so easy. The job market can still hold up, and wage pressure hasn't clearly eased, so the market might trade again on "rates needing to stay higher." Even if BTC hits near 65000, it could be pushed back down by selling pressure soon after.
However, in my view, just touching 65000 doesn't count as a breakout yet.
It's already close to this level, and it's easy to spike after the data release. What really needs to be observed is whether BTC can stabilize again in the 64500–65000 range after the push.
If the price can hold above this range for a few hours, it means nearby sell orders are indeed being absorbed by the market. If it spikes up but quickly falls back near 64000, then it's still the same consolidation, just shaking out another batch of momentum buyers.
Also, tonight's data is more like the first question on a test; tomorrow night's nonfarm payrolls are the big question that follows.
So there's no need to rush to catch the first candle after the data release tonight. If some data points are good and others bad, it's possible the price will first spike up and then sweep down.Apple wants to cut prices, but memory manufacturers are not buying it?
Apple wants to lower memory prices, but this time, the suppliers did not back down.
According to US stock investment sources, Chinese memory chip manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) rejected Apple's request to reduce the price of LPDDR5X.
The reason is simple:
Market shortages have shifted bargaining power back to the sellers.
In the past few years, major clients like Apple and Samsung could continuously demand price cuts from suppliers due to their large purchase volumes.
But now the situation has changed:
AI servers are booming, driving explosive demand for HBM
DRAM capacity is occupied by high-end AI memory
Supply of regular mobile DRAM is tightening
Memory manufacturers no longer need to "beg for orders."
Even under US restrictions, Chinese smartphone makers like Huawei and Xiaomi are willing to pay higher prices for domestic memory to secure supply, giving CXMT stronger negotiating leverage.
Behind this price battle lies an important signal:
AI is changing the power dynamics across the entire storage industry chain.
In the past:
Customers pressured suppliers → memory prices kept falling
Now:
Supply is tight → Samsung, SK Hynix, and CXMT are starting to compete for pricing power
Of course, CXMT also faces long-term challenges:
US export restrictions may impact its overseas markets, but in the short term, domestic substitution demand is providing growth opportunities.
This is not simply a case of "Apple's price cut failure."
It marks the beginning of a re-pricing of the memory chip industry in the AI era.
$AAPL $SKHY $NVDA #美股When a big bullish candlestick surged up, I actually put my phone down. Have you noticed that the closer the earnings report and the more excited prices get, the more the market feels like a cup of water about to overflow? SNDK's recent rise from the bottom is indeed impressive; now near 1470, all 15-minute moving averages are in a bullish alignment, and the MACD has turned upward again. Short-term buying momentum seems to have been fully ignited; from the lows, this rebound is already quite significant. But it was precisely at times like this that my heart skipped a beat—because the livelier the market, the more it shows all the good news has already been priced in. What exactly is the market trading right now? Simply put, it's the anticipation of HBM price hikes and a surge in AI storage demand. Funds are not afraid of high costs; cramming money before the financial report is officially released essentially exhausts the word "optimism" in advance. There is a very practical trading logic here: expectations drive price, not results. The current stock price has already priced in many good news, so if the financial report wants to keep pushing higher, it will need to deliver data far beyond market expectations and guidance for the next quarter. What if it just happens to meet expectations? That would most likely trigger the classic "buy expectations, sell facts." The floating profit positions accumulated earlier will collectively withdraw as if coordinated. Don't forget that during this rally, many profit-taking positions have already been accumulated, so the pressure to take profits must not be underestimated. Even more subtle, the closer it gets to the earnings date, the faster the price accelerates, making it easier to become a bullish trap—after the close, liquidity is thin, and the intensity of insertion and stop-loss sweeps becomes intenseTo be honest, the recent BTC market really tests people's patience.
Yesterday, a fan messaged me privately, saying they impulsively chased at 64000 and now they're stuck in a no-win situation, asking what to do. I directly said: either cut losses or hold on; chasing highs in a sideways market is just asking for trouble. I suffered this loss back in August last year—seeing a breakout, I rushed in, only to endure a half-month correction and ended up cutting losses.
Right now, the market is stuck dead in the 63000-64000 range, hitting resistance and pulling back, dropping to 63000 and getting bought up again. Both bulls and bears are lying low, waiting it out. Daily indicators are flat, volume is shrinking day by day. Simply put, there’s no clear short-term direction; everyone’s waiting for a trigger to break the deadlock.
Why is the market so stagnant? From my observation, there are two core reasons:
First, no new money is coming in. The Fed’s high interest rates are hanging over us; outside hot money is all flowing into US stocks like AI, semiconductors, and gold, where there are solid earnings and safe-haven logic. The crypto space can’t compete for new inflows. The much-anticipated crypto regulatory bill basically died in August—Congress is about to recess, no time for serious votes, so the positive expectations have been exhausted early.
Second, existing funds are reluctant to move. BTC spot ETFs have been very restrained recently; institutions are watching and no one dares to add big positions. Altcoins are even worse—90% are shrinking in volume and slowly declining, with only a few hot coins seeing some coordinated pump, while the rest have no volatility at all, just a pure zero-sum game among existing holders. I cleared most of my altcoin positions last month; I just can’t endure this slow decline.
Looking at historical data is interesting: BTC has closed down every August for the past 4 years, with an average drop of about 10%. It’s one of the weakest months of the year, known in the community as the "August curse." The fear and greed index is stuck around 25, still in the fear zone, with market sentiment neither at an extreme panic bottom nor an overheated top—stuck in the middle, which is the most frustrating.
Let me share my own live trading for your reference, don’t blindly copy:
For spot, I’m currently in three layers, with an average cost just above 61000, neither adding nor reducing for now. If it dips back near 63000, I’ll consider adding a layer. If it breaks below 62000 effectively, I’ll cut losses and exit—that’s my pre-set discipline, no stubborn holding.
For futures, I basically haven’t touched them this week. Betting on a breakout in a sideways market is just throwing money away; I’ve suffered big losses and know better. I’ll wait for volume to pick up and a clear direction before joining in; missing some minor moves is no big deal.
Honestly, for friends itching to chase altcoins, hold on. In a market with no new inflows, what you think is bottom chasing is actually stepping into a liquidity trap—if you get stuck, no one will buy your losses, and you’ll end up just lying flat and playing dead.
Finally, a heartfelt word: the longer the sideways grind lasts, the bigger the move when the deadlock breaks. In this kind of market, patience and preserving capital are a hundred times better than reckless trading. Don’t always try to catch every wave; wait for the market to show a clear direction before acting. Earning less is always better than losing.
How many layers are you currently holding? Are you empty and waiting or already in? Let’s chat in the comments.
$BTC $ETH
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 BTC death cross (50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average) — first time in 4 years.
Historical data:
2015: Bottomed about 2-3 months after the death cross
2019: Bottomed about 2-3 months after the death cross
2022: Bottomed about 2-3 months after the death cross
Current status:
The 50-day MA is crossing below the 200-day MA
After each death cross, the price usually has further downside potential
But it is also an area where long-term investors start to pay attention
Key observation:
The death cross is a lagging indicator — it usually appears after the price has already dropped significantly.
It is more a signal of trend continuation rather than the start of a new trend.AI infrastructure stocks rallied before BTC spot supply and demand moved. Why are semiconductor and power infrastructure stocks rising, but crypto isn't gaining the same momentum? Stocks held by Leopold Assenbrunner, a former OpenAI employee, have shown strength for two consecutive days. SanDisk +7.7%, Intel +6.7%, Micron +5.5%, AMD +5.2%, CoreWeave +4.7%, Broadcom +4.2%, Bloom Energy +2.6%, Nvidia +1.3%, in that order. The common denominator among these stocks is AI computing infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, and power solutions. This suggests that Assenbrunner's investment theme is being re-evaluated by the market. The implication of this movement for crypto is not direct. The rally in AI infrastructure stocks can be interpreted as a sign that traditional capital is regaining a preference for risk assets, but unlike in the past, this capital is not flowing directly into BTC or ETH. Rather, AI infrastructure itself is becoming a capital absorber, making the inflow into crypto relatively weaker. Mismatch Between Market Cap and Popularity: Dogecoin's Valuation Has Never Been a Technical Issue
Let's first look at some striking data: as of August 5, $DOGE is priced around $0.07, with a market cap of approximately $10.8 to $11 billion, ranking 11th on CoinGecko and still firmly in the top ten on Coinbase's popularity list. A "joke coin" forked from Litecoin's code in 2013, twelve years later, with sparse development commits, virtually zero ecosystem applications, and a fixed annual inflation of about 5 billion coins, it still consistently ranks above many serious technical public chains. This mismatch itself is one of the most intriguing phenomena in the crypto market.
If we value Dogecoin by traditional logic, it’s almost impossible. No cash flow, no smart contract ecosystem, no decent developer team, and core code maintenance relies long-term on volunteers. This is very similar to early XRP—back then, XRP’s market cap surged into the top three, but its on-chain real usage was also heavily questioned, yet the market still gave it a high premium. The difference is that XRP at least had a company and a "cross-border payment" story, while Dogecoin doesn’t even bother telling a story; its only product is its own dog head logo. Yet precisely this "having nothing" makes it the purest form of speculation: no fundamentals to weigh it down, so no valuation ceiling anchor.
So what exactly is the market paying for? I believe it’s the "social currency" logic. Dogecoin’s pricing factor has never been code quality but attention—Elon Musk’s tweets, Reddit tipping culture, institutional allocation demand after ETF listings, and compliance premium after being classified as a commodity in March. Its market cap essentially discounts "how many people still remember this meme." This also explains its price structure: down about 90% from the $0.73 all-time high, down 66% in the past year, market cap shrunk from the peak to just over ten billion, yet its rank won’t fall because the stock of attention remains. Likewise, its 24-hour trading volume consistently stays in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and this liquidity itself is a monetization of social consensus.
The core contradiction is: assets priced as "social currency" base their valuation on the persistence of sentiment, and sentiment is the most non-depreciable yet hardest-to-predict factor in this market. Technical coins die gradually—you can see code stops updating, ecosystem fades; social coins die instantly—once the next meme takes over, the old meme quietly goes to zero. Dogecoin has lasted twelve years without dying, indicating it’s not just ordinary air but has evolved into a kind of "blue-chip of attention"—but this doesn’t change its essence: what you’re buying is not the network, but the probability that the crowd won’t disperse. Holders should watch not the development roadmap, but when the popularity curve turns.In the next 10 years, what will truly change wealth distribution is not just AI, but "AI + blockchain."
AI is responsible for creating efficiency, while blockchain is responsible for redefining value.
In the past 20 years, the internet gave ordinary people access to information.
In the next 20 years, blockchain may give ordinary people access to "assets."
Why are more and more people paying attention to assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL?
Because the logic behind them is no longer just simple price fluctuations, but a battle for the infrastructure of the future digital world.
BTC is like digital gold, solving value storage.
ETH is like a global open financial system, enabling smart contracts to run.
SOL represents the direction of high-speed blockchains, exploring larger-scale applications.
And the real big opportunities often don’t appear when everyone is crazy, but accumulate slowly when no one is paying attention and the market is sluggish.
History has repeatedly proven:
The biggest gap for ordinary people is not the lack of opportunity.
It is the disbelief that the future will change.
In 2000, few believed the internet would change the world.
In 2010, few believed mobile payments would replace cash.
In 2020, few believed digital assets would enter more people’s horizons.
In the coming years, those who understand the development directions of AI, blockchain, and the digital economy may have new choices.
Of course, investment always carries risks.
Don’t blindly chase gains, don’t invest with borrowed money.
True long-termism is using cognition to earn the compound interest of time.
Looking back in 2030, we may find:
Many people’s "doubts today" are the "early arrangements" of a few in the future.
Do you think BTC, ETH, and SOL will become important infrastructure in the digital world in the next 10 years?
Share your thoughts in the comments below👇
#加密货币 #区块链 #BTC #ETH #SOL #AI时代
@热门话题
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ $BTC $SUI $OKB Any curve that causes staking yields to drop to 0 before reaching 100% ETH staked is essentially a centralization tool. 🧐
It's simple. Reaching 100% staking is practically impossible in reality, but if it does happen, staking rewards would no longer make sense. Therefore, a curve that approaches 0 at the 100% mark can still be considered reasonable.
But what if there is a curve that causes the staking rewards of all participants to drop to 0 at some N < 100%? The answer is just as simple!
What we will witness is a brutal survival game. Assuming the staking demand exceeds 50% of total ETH (as all current issuance proposals aim for), the staking rate will approach or hit 50%. Then we wait. Wait for small players to leave the game or give up staking. Meanwhile, large organizations like BitMine can endure a zero-yield phase long enough for others to quit, and then staking rewards will return to positive.
Now ask yourself: is this really what we want? 🤔
As someone who has spent the past 5 years improving and strengthening Ethereum's decentralization, I see this proposal as a clear signal that those behind it are against a truly decentralized Ethereum! ⚔️A three-to-two basis point ratio.
This is the trading spread trump card targeted after BlackRock announced a three-for-one reverse stock split for its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA).
Many people, upon hearing this news, react by thinking it's just a numbers game: merging three shares valued at fourteen dollars each into one share worth forty-two dollars, with investors' total market value unchanged by a cent—what's the fuss about?
But in the eyes of Wall Street institutional actuaries, this seemingly boring stock split move is precisely the deadly hook BlackRock throws out to compete for institutional pricing power.
Why do Wall Street giants care so much about the fund's unit price?
Because when institutions make bulk purchases worth tens of millions of dollars, they don't calculate based on nominal price but on extremely strict trading friction costs.
The day before yesterday, I chatted with a friend who works as a trader at a brokerage. He complained to me: some family offices wanted to allocate Ethereum, but when they pulled the data, the ETHA bid-ask spread was as high as seven basis points. For several billion-dollar capital flows, this equates to losing tens of thousands of dollars before even entering the market. So they would rather wait and watch than take this high-cost channel.
So how does this three-for-one reverse stock split reduce costs?
Because as the net asset value per share rises from fourteen dollars to forty-two dollars, the spread ratio on the trading screen will be compressed multiple times. Bloomberg analysts have done detailed calculations, and after the split, ETHA's bid-ask spread is expected to plummet directly from seven basis points to around two basis points.
For institutional allocations buying in tens of millions of dollars, trading slippage and friction are cut by two-thirds. This is far more attractive to large capital than reducing management fees.
BlackRock's big move thoroughly reveals the truth that Ethereum ETF competition has entered deep waters: the early hype and marketing battles are over, and the next contest is structural optimization aimed at institutional buyers. Whoever can provide better liquidity depth and lower spread loss will become the sole settlement channel for large Wall Street capital.
This also wakes up retail investors still fantasizing that "Ethereum will skyrocket because of the stock split."
Institutional funds enter to capture high liquidity dividends, not to carry retail investors paying high premiums. The stock split optimizes their trading channel but does not mean the secondary market spot will suddenly have more buy orders.
Next, we need to continuously track the changes in trading volume share between ETHA and Fidelity's FETH after the split officially takes effect on October 6, and whether the daily average bid-ask spread can steadily stay near the expected two basis points. If the spread data shrinks as expected, the institutional liquidity efficiency of Ethereum ETFs may truly improve in the fourth quarter.
#以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 1. Price Performance: From "King of Meme" to "Three-Year Low"
Dogecoin currently faces the most immediate issue of its price dropping to a three-year low. DOGE is trading around $0.07, down about 85% from the late 2024 peak of approximately $0.48, and about 90% below its all-time high of $0.7376.
In the past month alone, DOGE has fallen over 10%, with a cumulative decline of 28.25% in July, marking the second monthly drop since April. The combined market cap of the two major Meme coins, DOGE and SHIB, has fallen to about $13.27 billion, the lowest level in nearly three years.
2. Technicals: Bears Control the Market, but the "Historical Support Zone" is Approaching
DOGE remains below the main weekly exponential moving averages, with bears still dominating. The price is tugging back and forth at the intersection of the $0.07 EMA50 and EMA200—this level has acted as both support and resistance over the past six months. The RSI reads around 42-47, indicating neutral to slightly weak momentum.
However, DOGE is approaching the historical accumulation zone between $0.048 and $0.063, which served as a long-term accumulation area from 2022 to early 2024. After the first retest of this zone in June 2022, DOGE rallied about 224%; it later fell back to the same range and then launched an approximately 887% surge, reaching as high as $0.48.
If this support zone holds, the primary rebound target will be the 20-week EMA near $0.088, followed by a dense resistance band between $0.11 and $0.12. Conversely, a weekly close below $0.05 would significantly damage this rebound structure.
3. On-Chain Data: Activity Rising, but Price Not Following
"On-chain activity is lively, but price is cold" is the core divergence currently for DOGE.
On one hand, weekly active addresses have increased by 16%, from about 38,000 to 44,000; futures open interest has risen to $1.1 billion; whales have added approximately 200 million DOGE (about $14 million) via Robinhood; and net spot inflows have grown 116.32% compared to the previous period.
On the other hand, these positive signals have yet to translate into a sustained price trend. Derivatives data show "volume contraction, position increase"—futures trading volume has declined, but open interest has risen against the trend. This indicates leveraged funds are adding positions, but short-term trading activity is cooling, with both bulls and bears waiting for directional cues.
4. Macro Risks: The "Damocles Sword" of $250 Billion Carry Trade
The biggest external risk comes from synchronized rate hike expectations in Japan and the U.S.:
· Japan: Policy rate held at 1% in July, but the market estimates about a 40% chance of another hike in September
· U.S.: CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25bp hike in September has risen from 55.8% a week ago to about 62.5%
If Japan and the U.S. tighten monetary policy simultaneously, it could boost the yen and accelerate the unwinding of the $250 billion yen carry trade. During the August 2024 unwind, the Nikkei index plunged nearly 20%, the S&P 500 dropped over 5%, and Bitcoin fell about 15%. As a high-beta risk asset, DOGE would be among the first hit if carry trades are liquidated on a large scale.
5. Narrative Dilemma: The "Elon Musk Effect" Fails, No New Story
DOGE's past rallies heavily relied on Elon Musk's endorsements and topics like the "D.O.G.E." government efficiency department. Currently, there is a lack of new catalysts—lawsuits involving Musk have ended without sparking sustained rallies; Tesla's support for DOGE payments has not significantly boosted adoption.
Meanwhile, the Meme coin sector is being squeezed. The combined market cap of DOGE and SHIB is only about 1.02% of BTC's market cap, a historic low, compared to roughly 7% at the peak of the 2021 Meme coin boom. Institutional capital inflows and emerging sectors like RWA are systematically eroding Meme coins' relative market share.
6. Summary
Dogecoin currently faces a "triple divergence":
1. Divergence between on-chain activity and price—addresses and holdings are rising, but price remains flat
2. Divergence between approaching historical support and macro risks—technicals call for a rebound, but macro liquidity is tightening
3. Divergence between Meme coin narrative and market main themes—institutions flow into RWA and AI sectors, marginalizing Meme coins
DOGE is nearing a key support zone that historically preceded 224% and 887% rallies, but whether it can replicate those miracles depends on the macro liquidity environment. If synchronized rate hikes in Japan and the U.S. trigger carry trade liquidations, the $0.048-$0.063 support zone may be breached; if it holds and the Meme coin sector warms up, rebounds to $0.088 or even $0.11-$0.12 remain possible. Direction is uncertain, but a turning point is imminent.
$DOGE