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#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
SanDisk's earnings report overall delivered a solid performance, with improving operations and a large stock buyback announced to reward shareholders.
However, despite the results, the stock price weakened, showing clear market divergence.
Key highlights:
The data center storage business benefits from the AI wave, with ample orders and significantly improved cash flow. The consumer side remains weak, with growth heavily dependent on AI computing demand.
Although holding a large buyback authorization, the next quarter's guidance failed to meet the market's high expectations. The stock price had already fully priced in the storage upcycle, leading to profit-taking.
🔺Bullish logic: AI storage demand is far from over, large buybacks provide support, and the pullback is just a shakeout.
🔻Bearish logic: Valuation is maxed out, and once cloud providers reduce capital expenditures, sustaining high margins will be difficult.
📌My view
Buybacks provide a safety net but do not guarantee stock price increases.
Storage remains a strong cyclical industry; long-term contracts can smooth volatility but cannot fully avoid cyclical downturn risks. Don't be overly bullish just because the earnings report looks good.
Crypto mapping:
Sentiment in the US storage sector will indirectly affect on-chain storage and DePIN tokens. However, this is only a thematic catalyst and cannot change the macro-driven major market trends.Strong Earnings, Massive Buyback—Why Are $xSNDK, $MU, and $xSKHYNIX Still Weak?
SanDisk has delivered one of the strongest earnings reports of the year, beating Wall Street expectations on both revenue and profit while announcing a massive $6 billion share repurchase program. The company also strengthened its long-term outlook with multi-year supply agreements, reinforcing confidence that AI-driven storage demand remains robust.
Yet the market reaction tells a different story.
Despite these bullish catalysts, $xSNDK continues to trade under pressure, with $MU and $xSKHYNIX also losing momentum. The weakness is not driven by deteriorating fundamentals—it reflects a market that had already priced in near-perfect execution after the sector's powerful rally.
Investors are increasingly locking in profits after strong earnings, while concerns over a potential moderation in NAND pricing and rich valuations have limited buying interest. At the same time, capital is rotating into other AI-related opportunities, leaving memory stocks temporarily lagging despite healthy business conditions.
This highlights an important shift in today's market: beating expectations is no longer enough. Investors now demand accelerating growth and stronger forward guidance to justify premium valuations.
Although short-term volatility may persist, the long-term investment case remains intact. AI infrastructure, hyperscale data centers, and enterprise storage demand continue to expand, providing structural support for the memory industry.
For now, $xSNDK, $MU, and $xSKHYNIX may remain under pressure, but if AI demand continues to grow and memory pricing stabilizes, this sector could once again emerge as one of the market's strongest performers.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback
#KoreaMemoryRebound
#CircleArcLaunch
$XSNDK $XSKHY 15WU all-in short $BICO!!
Market makers, are you going crazy again??
It surged like this in just one day!
Do you really think no one is watching the market?
I took a look at these charts,
and this trend is really a bit outrageous.
First, look at $BICO:
The current price is around 0.03010,
24-hour increase +10.90%,
peaked at 0.03085.
The candlesticks keep breaking upwards,
rising steadily from the low,
and the moving averages are continuously diverging upwards.
But brothers, pay attention!!
This kind of continuous surge
is most likely to attract chasing funds.
The more it rises earlier,
the greater the profit-taking pressure later.
---
Next, look at $SNDK:
The short position is already open,
with a position size of 300,000 U,
entry price 1463.58,
mark price 1243.26,
currently floating profit of 53,600 U, nearly 88% return.
What does this mean?
Funds chasing high prices
are already being slowly harvested.
---
Then, look at $UB:
It rose all the way up before,
peaking near 0.21185,
but after the spike, it quickly fell back,
now the price is at 0.13360.
High volume at the top,
unable to push higher,
this is a typical profit-taking signal.
---
So now my thinking is simple:
After such a violent surge,
it's not the time to blindly chase longs.
Market makers pump it this high
to create FOMO,
luring retail investors to catch the last leg.
I won’t chase the highs,
I’ll flip directly:
15WU all-in short $BICO!!
Market makers:
Keep pumping!!
My short position is ready!!
What if it triples in one day?
The crazier it rises,
the harder it will fall!!
Market makers, you’re at it again, really annoying!!
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ 2026.08.06 Midday Crypto News Full Version #SanDisk Earnings Exceed Expectations, Adds $14 Billion Buyback Authorization
@币圈超短王马大帅
1. Overall Market Situation (As of August 6, 12:30)
1. Total crypto market cap is $2.29 trillion, 24h increase +0.9%, spot trading volume $57 billion, market fluctuates and recovers, BTC strong, altcoins show clear divergence
2. BTC Bitcoin: Current price $64,516, 24H +0.3%
Short-term support at 63,800, first resistance 64,800, strong resistance 67,000–68,000; after geopolitical risk cools down, relying on support for short squeeze rebound, Bitcoin market dominance continues to rise at 56.5%
3. ETH Ethereum: Current price $1,897, 24H +1.25%, outperforming BTC
Support at 1,850, resistance at 1,920, on-chain lending and DeFi sector movements drive independent buying, ending long-term weak correlation trend
4. Mainstream altcoins diverge
Strengthening: SOL, TRX, BNB; Weakening: XRP, ADA, DOGE, LINK overall weak; DeFi sector daily decline up to 38.7%, stablecoin capital flow reduced by 5%, funds concentrate into BTC and ETH core coins
5. Market sentiment: Fear & Greed Index slightly recovers, moving away from extreme fear zone, leaning towards cautious observation
2. Total Liquidation Data Across All Contracts (24h)
Total contract liquidation amount $235 million, mainly short stop-loss liquidations
• Short liquidations $142 million, long liquidations $93 million, this rebound driven by concentrated short covering
• BTC contract liquidations about $41 million, ETH contract liquidations $38 million, no ultra-large single liquidation, mainly small to medium contract stop-loss
• Top exchanges account for over half of liquidations, short-term contract fund competition intensifies
3. Major Macro News
1. US-UK Joint Crypto Regulation Coordination Implemented (Core Policy)
US and UK Treasury issued joint statement unifying stablecoin regulatory framework and tokenized finance standards, aligning with US GENIUS stablecoin bill, forming medium to long-term benefits for compliant institutional capital entry; no strong short-term regulatory negatives, easing market policy anxiety.
2. Geopolitical positive supports market
US delays military strike on Iran, Strait of Hormuz situation eases, safe-haven funds exit gold, some flow into crypto for short-term risk asset play, core reason for BTC stabilization and rebound.
3. Fed rate cut expectations remain unchanged
CME rate futures price 87.5% chance of September cut, dovish official remarks continue, US bond yields slightly down, Nasdaq rises, overall risk asset environment warms.
4. US CLARITY crypto bill voting delayed again
Opposition citing banking operation risks, bill passage probability down to 31%, compliance legislation delayed, short-term weakens institutional long-term layout expectations but avoids short-term strong regulatory crackdown.
4. Industry Hotspot Updates
1. Uniswap launches on-chain lending product "Earn"
DEX leader officially enters lending business, Ethereum on-chain activity rises, directly boosting ETH short-term strength, Layer2 ecosystem activity also warms.
2. India updates crypto tax rules
Adopts OECD global crypto asset tax reporting framework, domestic exchanges forced to report user crypto trading profits, Southeast Asian retail compliance costs rise, pressure on local coins increases.
3. Hong Kong stablecoin license rumor clarified
Market rumors of second batch of stablecoin licenses issued during National Day denied by HKMA, focusing only on existing two licensed institutions for operational testing, no new license plans.
4. Robinhood UK FCA crypto qualification stable operation, retail trading channels in Europe and US continue expanding.
5. Core Market Summary & Observation Points
1. Market logic: geopolitical easing + short covering + rate cut expectations triple support rebound, but overall volume not expanding, a battle of existing funds, not suitable for chasing highs;
2. ETH sees phase structural strengthening, short-term cost-performance better than Bitcoin, altcoin rotation very fast, DeFi sector pullback to avoid;
3. Key time window: US CPI inflation data this week, directly changes Fed rate cut expectations, determines if this rebound can continue; #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
Before the $SNDK SanDisk earnings report, I originally wanted to exit, but in the end, I didn't.
Entered at 1391, with the lower bound of the range at 1219, giving a space of over a hundred points. I thought that even if it fell after the earnings, it probably wouldn't break through directly.
As it turned out, the earnings data was indeed good, but it still dropped 9 points after hours. Now there's an unrealized loss of 30 points, but the grid strategy is still running.
There was an interesting move by a big whale: he took profit at 1390, making 400,000, then placed orders to buy back in batches at 1300, 1250, and 1201, averaging down to 1257. His approach was to exit first and then wait to buy back at lower prices, showing both judgment and discipline.
But I didn't exit like him. Not because I'm smarter, but because I think SanDisk can still hold at this level. The earnings themselves weren't bad: 8.97 billion in revenue, 84.6% gross margin, and EPS beat expectations. The drop was due to guidance being 250 million less than expected, and the market turned quickly. The fundamentals haven't collapsed, the lower bound of the range hasn't been broken, and the grid is still running. The premise of this strategy is that volatility doesn't break the range; it hasn't broken yet. If it breaks, then we'll talk; if not, we'll keep grinding.
He judged the rise was done and exited first; I judge the range can still hold and continue to hold. Just two different judgments, let's see who is right in the end.
I'm betting SanDisk can bounce back. It's not blind optimism; as long as the range isn't broken, I don't want to move. If I lose, I'll bear it and wait.2026.08.06 Midday Crypto News Full Version #SanDisk Earnings Exceed Expectations, Adds $14 Billion Buyback Authorization
@币圈超短王马大帅
1. Overall Market Situation (As of August 6, 12:30)
1. Total crypto market cap is $2.29 trillion, 24h increase +0.9%, spot trading volume $57 billion, market fluctuates and recovers, BTC strong, altcoins show clear divergence
2. BTC Bitcoin: Current price $64,516, 24H +0.3%
Short-term support at 63,800, first resistance 64,800, strong resistance 67,000–68,000; after geopolitical risk cools down, relying on support for short squeeze rebound, Bitcoin market dominance continues to rise at 56.5%
3. ETH Ethereum: Current price $1,897, 24H +1.25%, outperforming BTC
Support at 1,850, resistance at 1,920, on-chain lending and DeFi sector movements drive independent buying, ending long-term weak correlation trend
4. Mainstream altcoins diverge
Strengthening: SOL, TRX, BNB; Weakening: XRP, ADA, DOGE, LINK overall weak; DeFi sector daily decline up to 38.7%, stablecoin capital flow reduced by 5%, funds concentrate into BTC and ETH core coins
5. Market sentiment: Fear & Greed Index slightly recovers, moving away from extreme fear zone, leaning towards cautious observation
2. Total Liquidation Data Across All Contracts (24h)
Total contract liquidation amount $235 million, mainly short stop-loss liquidations
• Short liquidations $142 million, long liquidations $93 million, this rebound driven by concentrated short covering
• BTC contract liquidations about $41 million, ETH contract liquidations $38 million, no ultra-large single liquidation, mainly small to medium contract stop-loss
• Top exchanges account for over half of liquidations, short-term contract fund competition intensifies
3. Major Macro News
1. US-UK Joint Crypto Regulation Coordination Implemented (Core Policy)
US and UK Treasury issued joint statement unifying stablecoin regulatory framework and tokenized finance standards, aligning with US GENIUS stablecoin bill, forming medium to long-term benefits for compliant institutional capital entry; no strong short-term regulatory negatives, easing market policy anxiety.
2. Geopolitical positive supports market
US delays military strike on Iran, Strait of Hormuz situation eases, safe-haven funds exit gold, some flow into crypto for short-term risk asset play, core reason for BTC stabilization and rebound.
3. Fed rate cut expectations remain unchanged
CME rate futures price 87.5% chance of September cut, dovish official remarks continue, US bond yields slightly down, Nasdaq rises, overall risk asset environment warms.
4. US CLARITY crypto bill voting delayed again
Opposition citing banking operation risks, bill passage probability down to 31%, compliance legislation delayed, short-term weakens institutional long-term layout expectations but avoids short-term strong regulatory crackdown.
4. Industry Hotspot Updates
1. Uniswap launches on-chain lending product "Earn"
DEX leader officially enters lending business, Ethereum on-chain activity rises, directly boosting ETH short-term strength, Layer2 ecosystem activity also warms.
2. India updates crypto tax rules
Adopts OECD global crypto asset tax reporting framework, domestic exchanges forced to report user crypto trading profits, Southeast Asian retail compliance costs rise, pressure on local coins increases.
3. Hong Kong stablecoin license rumor clarified
Market rumors of second batch of stablecoin licenses issued during National Day denied by HKMA, focusing only on existing two licensed institutions for operational testing, no new license plans.
4. Robinhood UK FCA crypto qualification stable operation, retail trading channels in Europe and US continue expanding.
5. Core Market Summary & Observation Points
1. Market logic: geopolitical easing + short covering + rate cut expectations triple support rebound, but overall volume not expanding, a battle of existing funds, not suitable for chasing highs;
2. ETH sees phase structural strengthening, short-term cost-performance better than Bitcoin, altcoin rotation very fast, DeFi sector pullback to avoid;
3. Key time window: US CPI inflation data this week, directly changes Fed rate cut expectations, determines if this rebound can continue; 🧠 Medium to Long-Term Perspective — The Valuation Anchor and Narrative Reconstruction of $BTC
🏛️ Institutionalization Process Still Accelerating
Although short-term trends are full of uncertainty, from the medium to long-term on-chain data, the institutionalization process of $BTC has not stalled. The balance of large whales continues to rise, large transfers frequently appear in OTC channels, and ETF fund flows remain stable — all evidence of institutional capital "quietly positioning."
CryptoQuant clearly points out: whales continue to accumulate during price weakness, and historically, this accumulation pattern may correspond to market bottoms. While this does not guarantee an immediate market reversal, it at least indicates that smart money believes the current price has medium to long-term allocation value.
🔗 BTC's New Positioning as a Macro Asset
A key feature of this rebound is the increasing correlation between BTC and macro variables. Oil price drops → inflation expectations cool → risk appetite recovers → BTC rises; this transmission chain is becoming clearer. $BTC is evolving from a "purely speculative asset" to a "macro-sensitive asset."
This means that the core variables affecting BTC's future trend will no longer be internal crypto news, but rather:
· Federal Reserve monetary policy path
· Geopolitical risk premium
· Global liquidity cycle
⚡ Arthur Hayes' Supercycle Narrative
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently warned that the AI infrastructure investment boom driven by debt could evolve into a "2008-style" credit crisis. If this scenario comes true, governments worldwide will be forced to release liquidity on a large scale, potentially pushing BTC to $1,000,000.
This is an extreme long-term bullish narrative, but the logic chain holds — BTC is a natural beneficiary of the fiat system's trust crisis. Although difficult to realize in the short term, this narrative provides "faith support" for long-term bulls and is one of the underlying reasons why whales dare to continuously accumulate near $64,000.
🎯 Comprehensive Judgment
Short term (24-48 hours): Range-bound bullish between 63,800-65,000. Watch for a breakout above 65,000; if volume expands on the breakout, look for 65,500-67,000.
Medium term (1-2 weeks): Direction depends on macro variables. Fed statements and geopolitical situations are the core catalysts.
Long term (3 months+): Institutional accumulation + macro narrative support; the medium to long-term allocation value near $64,000 is being recognized by smart money.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ BTC surging to 65,000 isn’t a reversal? Today’s K-line hides 3 signals no one dares to say:
Many are still waiting for the “bull to return,” but today’s BTC K-line pours cold water first:
As of midday August 6, BTC prices on most platforms ranged between $64,400–65,015, with an early session break above 65,000, some markets hitting a high of 65,050+; later snapshots showed an intraday high of 68,044 and low of 63,862, with the core battle stuck around 64,000 / 65,000 / 67,000.
In short: this is not a full bull restart, but a structural rebound driven by “ETF inflows + short covering + macro easing” resonance.
1. What is really rising today?
• Capital flow: US spot BTC ETF net inflows on 8/4 +$211.5 million, 8/5 +$121.5 million, totaling over $330 million in two days, with IBIT alone accounting for $170 million+, ending the withdrawal wave from 7/31–8/3.
• Macro: Fed officials leaning dovish, US-Iran Hormuz Strait navigation talks progressing, WTI back near 75, giving risk assets a breather.
• On-chain: Long-term holding addresses hit new highs, exchange balances continue to drop, about 155,000 BTC selling pressure absorbed in the 62,000–65,000 range.
2. But don’t get carried away, three bearish signals also exist
1. Sentiment hasn’t caught up: Fear & Greed Index still at 27–34, meaning “price up, but people nervous.”
2. Shorts aren’t dead yet: A 40x leveraged whale is shorting 1,600 BTC near 64,889, liquidation price just pushed to 64,998, risking a second liquidation or counterattack anytime.
3. This week’s biggest variable hasn’t landed: Friday 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls (expected +80,000, unemployment 4.3%) is the key to breaking this range.
3. Key levels to watch intraday (for observation, not advice)
• Short-term support: 63,800–64,000 (intraday bull/bear dividing line) → 62,300–62,600 (daily defense)
• Broken/Testing: 65,000 (resistance turned support, success depends on daily close)
• Upper resistance: 65,250 → 67,000–68,000 → 70,000 previous highs with dense sell walls
My view: If the Asian session push to 65,000 can’t hold and volume doesn’t follow, likely a pullback to 64,000 before deciding next move; to truly break out, wait for nonfarm to boost volume and hold above 65,200.
------
Which side are you leaning?
A. Fake breakout before nonfarm, pull back to 63,000
B. Direct push to 67,000 tonight/tomorrow night
C. Sideways until Friday, wait for big nonfarm to decide life or death
Vote in the comments, I’ll post a follow-up verification after market close tonight.
$BTC #BitcoinTodayTrend #ETFNetInflow #OKXPlanetTopicIsHere #NonfarmEve
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is only a summary of public market/chain/ETF data and technical structure observations as of 2026-08-06, containing no “guaranteed rise/fall/all-in/bottom fishing” advice; crypto assets are highly volatile and leveraged, prone to liquidation, please manage your own risk. SanDisk's Earnings Exceed Expectations but Stock Plummets: Guidance Fails to Meet Sky-High Market Expectations as Main Cause
After the U.S. market closed on August 5 (Eastern Time), storage chip giant SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK) released its Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings (ending July 3, 2026). Describing this report as "explosive" is no exaggeration—revenue, profit, and gross margin all significantly surpassed expectations, with data center business experiencing explosive growth. However, the market was not convinced. During regular trading hours, SanDisk's stock fell about 5.4%, and after-hours losses expanded to 7%-8% or even higher, showing a typical "good news sell-off".
How strong was the earnings report?
Q4:
Revenue approximately $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, up 51% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding market expectations (around $8.39 billion to $8.6 billion).
Adjusted EPS of $39.25, significantly above analyst expectations (around $34-$35).
Adjusted gross margin reached 84.6%, rising quarter-over-quarter and multiplying several times year-over-year.
Data center business became the core engine: quarterly revenue about $2.98 billion, soaring over 10 times year-over-year and doubling quarter-over-quarter, now a key growth pillar for the company.
Full year (Fiscal 2026):
Total revenue $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year.
Net profit attributable to shareholders approximately $11.43 billion, nearly 8 times year-over-year.
Data center full-year revenue grew 437% year-over-year.
The company also announced the board approved an additional $14 billion stock repurchase plan, with remaining repurchase authorization totaling about $15.5 billion.
Behind these numbers is the AI-driven surge in storage demand, product price increases (about two-thirds of growth from price hikes), and structural shift toward high-value customers (especially data centers). SanDisk has previously signed multi-year supply agreements (NBM) with several customers, further locking in long-term demand visibility.
Why did the stock still plunge?
The core reason is very clear: the guidance for the next fiscal quarter failed to meet the market's extremely elevated expectations.
SanDisk's guidance for Q1 fiscal 2027:
Revenue $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion (midpoint about $10.55 billion), below Wall Street consensus expectations (mostly in the $10.8 billion to $11.16 billion range).
Adjusted EPS $44 to $46, roughly flat or slightly below some expectations.
Gross margin guidance remains high at 83%-85%, but without further significant expansion.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing AI storage hype and SanDisk's stock having already surged multiple times year-to-date, the market had priced in "continued above-expectation growth." Investors want to see not only current quarter "good" results but also upward revisions in future guidance and a steeper growth trajectory. Even a few percentage points below consensus midpoint is enough to trigger profit-taking and sentiment reversal.
Additionally, several compounding factors:
The storage industry's strong cyclicality is always emphasized by bears. The historical "shortage → price increase → capacity expansion → oversupply" cycle remains in market memory, and the high gross margin (already above 80%) raises concerns about a peak.
The stock had already pulled back noticeably from highs, with fragile sentiment; options expiration-related long-short battles also amplified volatility.
Simultaneously, peers like Western Digital also reported earnings and saw declines, causing sector sentiment resonance.
Post-earnings comments from institutions like Goldman Sachs noted: the performance itself is strong, but market expectations have outpaced reality, leading to "good earnings failing to save the stock price."
Summary
SanDisk's earnings report is a typical case of "fundamentals remain strong, but expectation management failed to match extremely high valuation." Data center and AI-related demand remain, and long-term agreements and buyback plans provide medium- to long-term support. The short-term plunge mainly reflects market sensitivity to "marginal changes" and profit-taking pressure after a high run-up.
For investors, key focus should be on actual shipment volumes, whether price trends can continue to support guidance, and management's comments on cycle peaks. The storage sector is still in the AI dividend period but with significantly increased volatility; any signals falling short of sky-high expectations could trigger sharp adjustments.
$SNDK 📉 Uniswap's latest move feels like a strategic misstep.
Instead of simply earning fees from growing launchpad volume across the ecosystem, Uni is now competing directly with the very platforms that were generating activity.
By concentrating liquidity into a single launchpad, it risks reducing competition, weakening organic price discovery, and potentially hurting the meme coin ecosystem as a whole.
From a volume and fee-generation perspective, the higher-EV move may have been to stay neutral and let the ecosystem create its own winners while Uni captured value from the flow.
Sometimes doing less creates more value.
Game is game. 🎭
#Uniswap #DeFi #Crypto #Ethereum #UNI#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck EMC Labs BTC Yesterday's Trend Analysis (06/08/2026)
1. Macro & External Liquidity
On August 5, Iran and Oman reached an agreement on the new navigational coordinates for the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first substantial easing of geopolitical tensions since the suspension of navigation at the end of July. The decline in crude oil risk premiums alleviated high inflation expectations, driving U.S. Treasury yields and the Dollar Index (DXY) to retreat from highs. This marginal loosening of external liquidity constraints became the fundamental cause driving the overall recovery of risk assets.
2. Capital Flow & Buy Power
Stablecoin net inflows appeared and the Coinbase premium index turned positive, confirming a marginal improvement in effective buy power in OTC and U.S. spot markets. Due to system daily update timing limitations, yesterday's $BTC BTC ETF capital flows have not yet been accounted for, but on-chain exchange BTC balances showed continuous net outflows, indicating that chips are steadily accumulating around the $64,000 level, suppressing supply-side selling pressure.
3. Valuation & Sell Pressure
BTC closed at $64,604 (up +0.85% from the previous day, down -48.2% from the 2025-10-06 ATH of $124,714). The unsmoothed Realized P/L Ratio rebounded to 1.12, and the STH SOPR rose to 1.005, indicating that short-term holders’ panic selling has basically cleared, shifting to slight break-even chip turnover, with marginal sell pressure significantly exhausted.
4. Leverage & Price Movement
Perpetual contract funding rates remain at a healthy slight positive level of 0.005%, with open interest (OI) moderately following rather than expanding chaotically, showing no leverage crowding risk. The spot-driven buying led by geopolitical easing pulled prices into a moderate rebound, presenting a healthy squeeze-style recovery structure.
5. Comprehensive Assessment
This rebound is a spot-driven recovery initiated by geopolitical easing, jointly driven by the revival of spot buy power and the clearing of short-term chip panic selling (confidence level: high).
Key observation indicators and trigger thresholds:
STH SOPR: If it falls below 0.98 again, it indicates short-term holders are entering another panic sell-off phase.
Coinbase Premium Index: If it turns from positive to negative, it signals an interruption in U.S. spot buy power.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 🛡️ Key Liquidation Map and Long-Short Game Simulation
💥 Liquidation Hotspot Analysis
According to Coinglass data, the current liquidation distribution of $BTC shows obvious asymmetry:
· Short liquidation concentration zone: $64,900-$65,500. The short whale's 1,400 BTC short position liquidation price is at $64,998, combined with other retail short positions, once this range is broken, short covering pressure will be huge.
· Long liquidation concentration zone: $63,500-$63,800. A large number of leveraged long positions have stop losses set near the starting point of this rebound.
This liquidation distribution means: BTC is in a "double explosion" danger zone between $63,800-$65,000 — a breakout of $200-$300 in either direction could trigger a chain liquidation reaction.
📐 Technical Pattern Simulation
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (Probability 45%)
BTC breaks out with volume above $65,000 and holds above $65,150. Trigger logic:
· Short whale stop-loss orders are triggered, short covering accelerates the upward momentum.
· First target $65,500, second target $67,000.
· Breaking above $67,150 means fully recovering this round's decline, trend turns bullish.
Scenario 2: Consolidation and Accumulation (Probability 35%)
$BTC continues to consolidate between $63,800-$65,000. Trigger logic:
· Bulls fail to break the $65,000 resistance.
· Shorts dare not suppress excessively due to whale accumulation support below.
· Waiting for new macro catalysts (Fed statements, geopolitical events, etc.).
Scenario 3: Bearish Counterattack (Probability 20%)
BTC breaks below the Bollinger middle band and EMA50 dual support at $63,800. Trigger logic:
· Fed releases clear hawkish signals, rate hike expectations rise.
· Geopolitical situation worsens again.
· First target $62,200, second target $62,600 at the lower Bollinger band.
📊 On-Chain Data Verification
From on-chain data, the probability of Scenario 1 (breakout) is rising:
· Whales continue accumulating, absorbing 1,540 $BTC in the past 3 hours.
· Short liquidations far exceed longs, short power is depleting.
· RSI at 58.65 remains neutral, not entering overbought territory.
But the risk of Scenario 3 (decline) cannot be ignored:
· Fed hawkish camp is expanding.
· Geopolitical news is volatile, prone to sharp short-term fluctuations.
· Large-scale bearish pattern has not fundamentally reversed.
#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元 News about the Strait of Hormuz is tearing the market apart. The U.S. claims to reach a temporary navigation agreement within 48 hours, while Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister publicly denies negotiating it, and military advisors have signaled that talks are still progressing. This repeated volatility has left the market at a loss, with WTI crude oil plunging from above $80 to around $75, but official denials are shaking this narrative of early pricing. The oil price bottom is unstable; $75 is not a confirmed support but a temporary stop amid high volatility. $BTC Currently at $64,590. Geopolitical easing was originally a key fuel for this rebound in risk assets. The S&P 500's record high above 7,700 points was largely due to the decline in oil prices. However, if the agreement is delayed or completely collapses, risk appetite will quickly cool, $BTC likely to retest the support zone between 62,000 and 63,000. Conversely, if the agreement is finalized and oil prices remain low, the probability of breaking through the 65,500 to 66,000 short liquidation zone $BTC greatly increases. 64590 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it stands above 65500 to 66000, if it fails, we must first face the test between 64000 and 64500. $SNDK On this side, the recovery in macro risk appetite has indeed supported valuations in the storage sector. The combined forces of the S&P to record highs, falling oil prices, and cooling rate hike expectations have pushed expectations high before the earnings report. The options market fluctuated about 15% after implied earnings, and tonight's earnings report is the real pricing anchor, given the current geopolitical situation📊 $NEAR Contract Liquidation Express (August 6)
According to liquidation data, short-term shorts were crushed hard, but mid-to-long-term longs suffered a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $1012.05
Long liquidations about $202.61
Short liquidations about $809.44
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $16,500
Long liquidations about $10,300
Short liquidations about $6,185.78
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $64,700
Long liquidations about $38,800
Short liquidations about $25,900
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $184,800
Long liquidations about $155,300
Short liquidations about $29,500
From $NEAR liquidation data, in 1 hour shorts liquidations crushed longs by 4 times, a fierce short squeeze blitz at the start; in 4 hours shorts maintained advantage but narrowed to about 1.67 times, a full short squeeze outbreak; in 12 hours the direction reversed, longs liquidations surpassed shorts by about 1.5 times, a long kill started; in 24 hours long liquidations surged to $155,300, 5.3 times that of shorts. The whales on NEAR completed a ruthless turnaround from short squeeze to long kill — short-term short chasers were targeted and blasted, mid-to-long-term long chasers were wiped out, with total liquidations exceeding $180,000. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | August 6
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawless" — "exceeding expectations" is just the entry ticket, any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + $14B buyback, still knocked down by "not impressive enough"
SanDisk delivered explosive earnings: Q4 revenue $8.97B, up 372% YoY; adjusted EPS $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; board approved $14B stock buyback plan. Full year revenue $20.25B, up 175% YoY.
However, after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8%. The culprit was next quarter guidance — revenue midpoint $10.55B, below market expectation of $10.82B. Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% implies high margin may plateau. 372% growth is not enough, $14B buyback is not enough — the market wants "perfection".
💳 Circle: USDC growth steady, Arc becomes new narrative
Before market on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle released Q2 results: total revenue $701M, up 7% YoY; net profit $48M, turning profitable from loss last year. USDC circulation reached $73.3B, up 19% YoY; on-chain transaction volume $14.8T, up 151% YoY.
The biggest highlight is Arc — the company significantly raised full-year other income guidance to $310M-$330M, mainly reflecting $242M Arc token presale revenue confirmed in Q2. USDC is the base, Arc is the future the market bets on. With crypto payment penetration continuously rising, Circle is trying to upgrade from "stablecoin issuer" to "crypto financial infrastructure platform".
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubled, unlocking peak is the real storm
After market on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report: Q2 revenue $7.814B, up 92% YoY, far exceeding expected $6.9B; adjusted EBITDA $3.5B.
After-hours stock price once plunged over 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4B, 6.5 times that of the same period last year — the market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. The bigger storm is on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares unlock, with a market value of $114B, equivalent to 1.4 times the current float. Less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth was met with after-hours plunge, SpaceX’s 92% revenue growth was met with market voting with feet — "exceeding expectations" has become the passing line, only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI sector moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," every deviation in guidance, every dollar of capital expenditure will be scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming — and it punishes all "not perfect enough" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ 🔥 Market Maker Game Theory — Who's Buying, Who's Selling, Who's Playing Dead?
🐳 Buyer Camp: Institutions and OTC Whales
In the past 3 hours, 4 newly created wallets received 1,540 BTC from Galaxy Digital and BitGo. Note several key details:
· Newly created wallets mean these addresses have no prior transaction history, likely newly opened custody accounts or institutional wallets
· OTC channels (Galaxy Digital/BitGo) indicate these are off-exchange block trades, not retail trades on exchanges
· Completion within 3 hours shows strong and concentrated buyer intent
This "new wallet + OTC accumulation" pattern historically appears in the early stages of institutional-level capital deployment. CryptoQuant data further supports this trend: Bitcoin whale balances rose from 2.87 million in December 2025 to about 3.06 million.
🐻 Seller Camp: Leveraged Shorts and Trapped Positions
The position structure of the short whale deserves in-depth analysis. This whale shorted 1,600 $BTC at 40x leverage, with a liquidation price of $64,889. The choice of this liquidation price is very deliberate — just below the $65,000 round number, meaning as long as BTC doesn't break $65,000, the short position is safe.
But at 4 AM, when BTC rebounded to $65,000, it triggered 4 stop-loss orders. This shows the whale’s stop-loss strategy is to cut losses in batches — setting a stop-loss order every 50 BTC between $64,885 and $68,254. This setup indicates the shorts are prepared for a break above $65,000, but the base short position of 1,400 BTC remains, with the latest liquidation price at $64,998 — almost right at the current price.
What does this mean? Every $1 increase in BTC pushes closer to this short whale’s liquidation line. Once a large-scale liquidation is triggered, short covering will act as "rocket fuel," driving the price rapidly upward.
⏳ Wait-and-See Camp: Existing Funds and Retail Investors
Besides the fierce battle between longs and shorts, a large amount of capital remains on the sidelines. During BTC’s rebound from $62,200 to $65,000, volume did not significantly increase. This is characteristic of capital rotation among sectors rather than overall new inflows.
Bitcoin unmoved for over a year recently surged to about 119,000 BTC, but only about one-tenth flowed into exchanges. This indicates long-term holders are neither rushing to sell nor massively bottom-fishing, but are watching.
💎 Market Maker Intent Projection
Based on on-chain data, the most reasonable projection of market maker intent is:
1. Accumulation phase: Institutions quietly accumulate via OTC channels to avoid driving up prices on exchanges
2. Stress test: Shorts build heavy positions near $65,000 to test the bulls’ absorption capacity
3. Direction choice: If $65,000 is broken with volume, short stop-losses will accelerate the rally; if repeatedly rejected, a pullback to $63,800 or even $62,200 for regrouping is possible#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ $BTC is currently still in the Fear zone, but ETFs have seen inflows for three consecutive days, indicating that traditional accounts are not frantically chasing the rally but are continuously accumulating in a low sentiment area. So although BTC is around $64.5K today, which is not a strong breakout, the continuous ETF inflows provide bottom support. The core question remains whether there is enough spot buying above $65K to continue pushing the price.
$ETH ETFs have also seen inflows for two consecutive days, indicating some support for ETH, but it is not as stable as BTC. The reason ETH's gains today outpace BTC's is that the short-term strength mainly comes from order book activity and short covering, rather than large ETF capital buying.
Additionally, liquidation data shows BTC shorts at $47.95M far exceed longs at $6.20M; ETH shorts at $39.85M also exceed longs at $9.24M. This indicates part of today's rise comes from short covering.
Short squeezes can happen quickly, but they are not the trend itself; the trend depends on whether spot buying continues after the squeeze.
Therefore, for BTC today, I only watch $63.9K and $64.9K, because all the above suggests there is probing around $64K. Holding $63.9K means support remains; breaking through $64.9K-$65K opens short-term space.
As for ETH, I only ask whether $1,900 can hold, which is the short-term key. Holding above $1,900 will make the market reassess ETH's relative strength; failing to hold means today's gains may just be a correction. Update on August 6, Bitcoin market trend for the next 78 days
1. ETF market: Yesterday, Bitcoin had a net inflow of 3,814 coins, and Ethereum had a net inflow of 32,500 coins.
Bitcoin has had net inflows for three consecutive days this week, each around 3,000 coins, which is quite good; at least the ETF market shows signs of recovery.
2. Fear and Greed Index: 25, extreme fear
3. btc.d index: 59.36
4. M2 indicator has reached the starting point of the next rebound wave, which will last about two weeks, continuing until around August 18. Although M2 did not create a new high in August, it has maintained a high-level oscillation, providing significant room for Bitcoin's performance.
Summary: Continuous net inflows in the ETF market, combined with Bitcoin's price rebound approaching 65,000, make it highly probable to break through the previous high of 67,000. Additionally, frequent news about US-Iran talks in the past two days. The market sentiment is optimistic, but one thing is puzzling: altcoins remain stagnant and even underperform Bitcoin and Ethereum. Could it be that the enthusiasm and funds for altcoins have been quickly absorbed by the US stock market?
$BTC #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
$SNDK's latest earnings report delivered an impressive performance: FY2026 Q4 revenue reached $8.97 billion, and adjusted EPS hit $39.25, both exceeding market expectations. At the same time, the company announced an additional $14 billion stock repurchase authorization, signaling management's confidence in future cash flow and business development.
However, after the earnings release, the stock price actually fell in after-hours trading.
This actually reflects a very clear change in the AI industry chain now:
The market is no longer satisfied with "good performance" but is looking for "whether future performance can continue to exceed expectations."
Over the past year, the biggest logic in the storage sector has been the demand growth driven by AI.
Whether it's AI servers, data centers, or the future development of Physical AI, all require large amounts of high-performance storage. HBM, high-end DRAM, and NAND have all become important components of AI infrastructure.
So many storage companies' stock prices have risen not simply because of current profits but because they are trading on AI demand over the next few years.
But the problem lies here:
When the market has already priced in rapid AI growth, even an excellent earnings report may only be "in line with expectations." SanDisk's revenue and profit exceeded expectations this time, but the next quarter's revenue guidance is slightly below market expectations, so funds chose to take profits first.
This reminds me of the recent situation with SK Hynix.
SK Hynix created record-high earnings, but its stock price still adjusted. The fundamental reason is the same:
The market no longer only looks at growth but whether growth can be sustained. Regarding AI storage, I still believe the long-term logic has not changed.
But what will truly determine the market going forward are not just whether AI demand exists, but three questions:
First, how long can AI capital expenditures be maintained;
Second, whether rising storage prices can continue to translate into corporate profits;
Third, with intensified competition among players like Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Changxin, will industry profit margins be affected.
Investing in industry trends cannot just focus on who rises fastest at the hottest time; more importantly, it is to judge who truly has competitive barriers in the industry chain.
For me, AI storage remains a direction worth long-term attention, but in the short term, I will not blindly chase after a single earnings report that beats expectations.
Excellent companies need good performance, but excellent investment opportunities also require reasonable prices 📈 Rebound Logic and Risks Driven by Macroeconomics
🌍 Macroeconomic Drivers of This Rebound
$BTC started its rebound from a low of 62,200 USD, reaching a high of 65,026 USD, an increase of nearly 2,800 points. The core drivers of this rise come from two macro variables: expectations of geopolitical easing and cooling inflation expectations. Positive signals emerged from US-Iran negotiations, with hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices sharply dropped to around 75 USD. The decline in oil prices directly reduced market concerns about inflation, restoring risk appetite.
However, on-chain analysts must clearly recognize: this is a news-driven technical correction, not a trend reversal. The resistance at the upper boundary of the descending channel from 67,150 to 62,200 USD still exists, and the large-scale bearish pattern has not fundamentally changed.
🔍 Key Observation Indicators
The current focus is not whether $BTC can break through 65,000, but whether the volume can keep up after the breakout. According to on-chain data, $257 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, including $166 million in short liquidations and only $91.21 million in long liquidations — short liquidations far exceed longs, indicating market sentiment is recovering from pessimism to neutral.
The BTC profitable supply ratio has fallen back to levels near the bear market bottom, which usually means selling pressure is exhausting. But Glassnode also warns: bottom conditions are forming but not yet complete.
🎯 The Significance of 64,500
64,500 USD coincides with the 21-day moving average, and the upper boundary of the 4-hour converging triangle is also in the 64,250-64,500 range. The current price is exactly stuck in this dual technical resistance zone — both a pressure point and a watershed.
From the on-chain chip distribution perspective, a large amount of short-term trapped positions have accumulated in the 64,500-65,000 range. These chips were trapped during the previous decline, and once the price returns to this area, selling pressure from unlocking positions will naturally emerge. This explains why BTC has repeatedly fallen back after touching 64,500.
⚖️ Critical Point of Bull-Bear Balance
The market is currently in a delicate balance: multiple moving averages and whale accumulation support at 63,800 below, and a stop-loss wall of shorting whales plus trapped position selling pressure at 65,000 above. The price oscillates within this 1,200 USD range, essentially waiting for a directional catalyst.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns that the AI infrastructure investment boom could trigger a "2008-style" credit crisis, and if governments release liquidity then, Bitcoin could be pushed to 1 million USD. This is a very long-term super bullish narrative with limited short-term price impact but provides imagination space for long-term bulls. $BTC #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ Don't expect all altcoins to rise and soar together. This market has never operated that way. 🧠 What's the reality? The vast majority of coins are just sideways, while projects with real fundamentals quietly accumulate underwater and steadily strengthen. Right now, it's not an altcoin season at all; essentially, it's just a money game where liquidity moves from one corner to another. 🔄
Funds today are extremely selective. They only flow into tracks with clear narratives, real liquidity, and transparent roadmaps. What about the rest? Stuck in place, no one to take over, no real demand, purely stagnant water. 💧
Where the money is rushing now: $JTO, $JELLYJELLY, $BTC, $OPG, $BTCSLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP
Coins losing momentum: $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA
My next watchlist: $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS
Here’s my framework for interpreting the market: 📡
$BTC determines the overall direction and is the market’s anchor.
$ETH reflects institutional money’s attitude and moves.
$SOL is the high-beta L1 barometer with the greatest elasticity.
$TAO and $WLD track capital flows in the AI sector.
$HYPE measures the market’s risk appetite.
$DOGE and $ZEC are the earliest leading indicators of retail sentiment.
Remember a rule of thumb: the real big moves always start before the whole network is buzzing. ⏳ When your feed is full of the same coin’s voice, the best entry point has long passed. Chasing hot spots means always taking the bag.
The strategy is simple: watch liquidity flows closely, sense the trend early in capital shifts, then let price validate your judgment instead of being led by market noise. 📊
The above is just my personal market interpretation and does not constitute any investment advice. Please do your own research. 🧪$BNB Spot is trading with slight positive momentum today, edging up +0.08% to change hands at 594.5.
The daily chart presents a green consolidation candle holding near range highs, moving within a 24-hour spread between a low of 592.0 and a high of 603.9.
Spot desk liquidity registers a 24-hour volume of 13.02K $BNB and a turnover of 7.81M USDT.
Technical structure reflects short-term strength as price holds above dynamic moving averages, with VWMA5 at 592.2, VWMA10 at 587.1, and VWMA20 at 580.5.
However, upside progression remains bounded under an overhead red daily Supertrend barrier at 606.6.
Buyers are defending the recovery move off the major swing floor at 555.6 as they press toward a retest of the local resistance level at 605.6.
#DailyOrbit @OKX中文 As soon as the news about #TrumpTokenUnderSenateInvestigation broke, the hype around political memes was immediately dampened. This isn't a bad thing; regulatory pressure on speculative assets will instead force capital to choose tracks with real substance. Now, when I look at the market, I focus on one question: where is the capital moving? The answer is clear: from sentiment-driven tokens to core assets and narrative leaders.
[Layered Analysis]
First layer: Core assets, the main capital switch ($BTC, $ETH)
$BTC is capped at 65200, with a turnover of 32.4 billion, consolidating sideways instead of dropping—this is strong consolidation. $ETH at 3470 is up 1.2% today, with the exchange rate starting to appreciate, indicating capital is flowing from BTC to ETH as a priority. Core assets are the main gate; as long as these two don't break key levels, the market structure in the next three layers is intact and tradable.
Second layer: AI narrative, the tightest capital cluster ($TAO, $FET, $RNDR)
$TAO is down 2.5% today but the trend remains intact, making it the most convincing token in the AI sector. $FET and $RNDR are warming up simultaneously, indicating rotation within the sector rather than a retreat. AI is the strongest tech narrative this round; pullbacks are opportunities, just manage your position size.
Third layer: RWA compliance direction, traditional capital's trial path ($ONDO, $CFG)
$ONDO is up 6.8% today, with modest volume but decisive price action, clearly showing main players are tentatively building positions. The logic behind RWA is that traditional finance must go on-chain, and $CFG follows suit. Though slow, once big institutions name this sector, valuations jump significantly. Suitable for mid-term holding, not for frequent trading.
Fourth layer: Meme sentiment, rebounds during sentiment downturns are escape opportunities ($DOGE, $PEPE, $WIF)
$DOGE down 3.2%, $PEPE down 5.1%, $WIF down 6.5%, the entire Meme sector is paying off debts. There is no fundamental support here; once capital withdraws, rebounds are just relief rallies. If you still hold, the next rebound is a giveaway—it's a signal to exit, not to add.
[Key Market Data]
$BTC 65200 / -0.8% / 32.4B — High-level sideways, direction undecided.
$ETH 3470 / +1.2% / 17.8B — Exchange rate rising, strongest secondary asset.
$SOL 148 / +0.5% / 2.5B — Weak follow-through, continue to observe.
$TAO 380 / -2.5% / 320M — Pullback without breaking trend, good for dip buying.
$FET 1.85 / +4.3% / 210M — AI warming signal.
$RNDR 9.80 / +3.1% / 150M — Strengthening with AI.
$ONDO 1.32 / +6.8% / 80M — RWA leader, healthy volume and price.
$DOGE 0.158 / -3.2% / 1.2B — Cooling news, exit on rebound.
$PEPE 0.000012 / -5.1% / 400M — Sentiment collapse, avoid.
$WIF 2.15 / -6.5% / 300M — Heavy selling pressure, watch and wait.
[Capital Flows]
🟢 Capital inflow concentration: $ETH, $TAO, $ONDO — solid logic assets attracting funds.
👀 On watchlist: $SOL, $FET, $RNDR, $UNI — wait for stabilization before entry.
🔴 Weak trend, no participation: $DOGE, $PEPE, $WIF — rebounds are escape points.
🫥 Other tracked tokens: $LINK, $AAVE — DeFi launch will link with $ETH.
[Trading Suggestions]
Focus on going long $ETH, entry at 3440-3470, stop loss at 3360, targets at 3550 and 3650. Position size controlled at 20%, no leverage. The logic is strengthening exchange rate; during $BTC consolidation, capital seeks alternatives, and $ETH is the most certain receiver. For $TAO, wait for 360-370 to enter, stop loss at 345, target above 400, light position for trial. Avoid all other tokens.
[Risk Warning]
The biggest risk is regulatory chain reactions. If #TrumpTokenUnderSenateInvestigation escalates, speculative funds will be forced to deleverage, with Meme tokens hit first. Also, if $BTC falls below 64000, core assets weaken, and all long positions should be exited. Leverage should not exceed 3x, stop losses must be unconditional, do not gamble on rebounds.
Leave the hype to others, keep discipline for yourself.
1. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB $XRP $ADA $DOGE $DOT $LINK $MATIC $AVAX $UNI $AAVE $CRV $LDO $ATOM $FIL $TRX $TON $SHIB $LTC $BCH $EOS $XLM $XTZ $ALGO $RUNE $THETA $INJ $ARB $OP $SUI $SEI $APT $TIA $NEAR $FLOW $AXS $SAND $MANA $GALA $ENJ $CHZ $BLUR $JTO $PYTH $WIF $PEPE $BONK $FLOKI $MEME $AI $TAO $FET $RNDR $ONDO $CFG $POL $ZEC $ETC $DASH $GNO $STX $MKR $BAL $SNX $YFI $SUSHI $COMP $MASK $TWT $ICX $QTUM $ZIL $KSM $XDC $VET $ONE $RPL $RPL
#TrumpTokenUnderSenateInvestigation $SPCX $LQTY
##TrumpTokenUnderSenateInvestigation #ContractTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketWatchEarnings report across the board far exceeded expectations, yet the market violently plunged 6.69%, the storage script is all套路！
Stayed up late to review the full SanDisk earnings report, the data right in front of me is ridiculously impressive:
1. Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, significantly surpassing analysts' expectation of $8.394 billion;
2. Adjusted net profit $6.162 billion, earnings per share 39.25 cents, EPS beating expectations by nearly 14%, compared to just 0.29 cents per share last year, a growth of over ten thousand percent;
3. Gross margin directly hit 84.6%, a ceiling-level profitability in the storage industry;
Q1 2027 revenue guidance range $10.3-$10.8 billion, midpoint exactly matching institutional estimates, the fundamentals have no flaws.
Expected that with such an outstanding earnings report, bulls would push the price up to recover, but the market dealt a heavy blow to all holders, a cliff-like drop on the 15-minute chart, current price 1311, a one-sided plunge of 6.69%, lowest wick at 1244, causing a chain liquidation of many long positions.
Analyzing the candlesticks reveals the harsh reality of the current market:
1. Bollinger Bands completely broke downwards
The Bollinger middle band at 1397.38 has become strong resistance, current price 1311 broke below the lower band at 1332.27, the bands are opening downward, short-term bearish trend fully established, all moving averages MA5/MA10/MA20 are pressing overhead, every rebound is an opportunity for bulls to reduce positions.
2. Indicators all entering extreme oversold
RSI6 dropped directly to 9.59, severely oversold zone, a technical small rebound may occur short-term but does not indicate a reversal; MACD's DIF continues deep decline, green bars significantly enlarged, bearish momentum still releasing, no bottom signal in the downtrend.
3. Volume selling off, typical good news sell-off scenario
After the earnings release, volume exploded instantly, whales who had been lurking at high levels used the “strong earnings” as an excuse to aggressively sell chips, perfectly replicating Intel’s earnings spike and fall pattern. Market funds are aggressively shorting due to next quarter guidance only meeting expectations without growth surprises, no matter how good current earnings are, profit-taking cannot be stopped.
4. Trend lines fully reversed
SUPERTREND line at 1395.34, price far below the trend line, SAR pressure dots all above the candlesticks, bulls have completely lost control short-term.
Underlying market logic
Retail investors think: earnings far exceed expectations, price should surge;
Main operators’ logic: price was already pumped from low to 1483 peak, AI storage good news was priced in early, stock price has fully priced in all earnings dividends. Earnings release lacks future capacity or order growth beyond expectations, institutions use the good news to clear positions, violently dropping price to wash out trend-following bulls.
Positioning practical advice
Long holders are now extremely passive, short-term RSI oversold may cause a small rebound repair, but heavy resistance at 1332, 1370, 1395 overhead.
Don’t rush to catch falling knives if you haven’t bottomed; volume-driven downtrend, oversold does not mean stop falling;
Short holders can take profits in batches relying on overhead moving average resistance, beware of strong rebounds from short-term oversold;
High leverage holders must reduce positions, wick volatility is huge, easy to trigger liquidation directly.
In short, the crypto/US stock storage sector can never escape one phrase: good news realized is bad news, no matter how explosive the earnings report, after the advance, only a sell-off remains.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $BTC Trump's "48-hour bet": If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, shorts will be bloodied
Trump is once again at the center of geopolitical storms.
The latest news shows Trump publicly stating that a US-Iran agreement will be reached "within 48 hours"—although Iran has not confirmed any negotiation progress, Trump has issued a tough warning: if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, Iran will face military strikes.
As soon as he spoke, the market reacted violently: crude oil prices plunged 6%, the Nasdaq index surged 2%, and Bitcoin directly broke through $64,000. The chain reaction from this "verbal sparring" is far deeper than imagined—if the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens, global energy costs will significantly drop, easing inflationary pressure, allowing the Federal Reserve room to shift to easing policies, which would be the real "tailwind" for cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, tariff refunds have accumulated to $100 billion, accounting for 60% of the total "Liberation Day" tariffs. US bank analysts estimate this round of refunds could push $150 billion into the stock market and Bitcoin—even if only part of the funds flow into crypto, it will still be a significant incremental boost for the market.
Other developments are also worth noting: the White House is preparing to extend the Jones Act waiver to further lower oil prices; the US suddenly revoked the Brazilian ambassador's visa; someone carrying a weapon was arrested at a Trump event in California—geopolitical and domestic news intertwine, and market volatility is escalating.
Back to the market itself:
· $BTC is currently consolidating around 64,000. The core variable in the next 48 hours is only one: whether the Strait of Hormuz agreement can be finalized. If reached, BTC is expected to challenge 70,000; if negotiations break down, it may first fall below 60,000. Both bulls and bears are on high alert.
· $XRP is highly sensitive to geopolitical news—during the last US-Iran tension easing, XRP rose 6% in a single day. Short-term traders can view it as a sentiment barometer but should be aware of amplified volatility risks.
In summary, the market's fate in the next two days hinges on whether a strait reopens. Whether bullish or bearish, fasten your seatbelts.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #HormuzDealStillPending
📌 Key points (condensed version)
Dimension Core content
Core event Trump says US-Iran agreement "within 48 hours," threatens military action if Strait of Hormuz remains closed
Immediate market reaction Oil price plunges 6%, Nasdaq surges 2%, BTC breaks 64,000
Underlying logic If strait opens → energy costs drop → inflation eases → Fed can ease → crypto gets real boost
Capital inflow Tariff refunds total $100 billion (60% of total), analysts estimate $150 billion may flow into stocks + BTC
Other variables White House plans to extend Jones Act waiver (to lower oil prices), US revokes Brazilian ambassador visa, weapon arrest at California Trump event
BTC trend forecast Currently oscillating at 64k; agreement → target 70k, breakdown → below 60k
XRP note Most sensitive to geopolitics, rose 6% last easing, short-term attention advised
Operation reminder Volatility will be intense in next 48 hours, focus on position control, follow direction after clarity Everyone says that Open USD is backed by a coalition of traditional financial institutions, which will impact existing stablecoins, causing $CRCL to plummet 18%.
In my opinion, it won't have any real impact; whether it can actually be issued is still unknown. The more participants and the bigger the momentum, the more likely it will fizzle out due to uneven profit distribution. You have to believe that traditional finance is all about refined self-interest.
On the contrary, this is actually good news for $CRCL. Why? Just one stablecoin project can unite so many traditional financial institutions to resist it, which precisely shows that the market demand for stablecoins is real and huge. It has already started to shake the traditional financial pie.
No matter how much they organize or unite to resist, it will ultimately be in vain. When that time comes, $CRCL will instead usher in a new round of explosive growth. #US and Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase, This News Seems About Exchange Rates, But What Really Affects Is the Underlying Logic of Global Liquidity. Once the Yen Strengthens, Carry Trades Will Unwind, and Risk Assets Will Be the First to Get Drained. The Crypto Market Appears Calm on the Surface Today, But Internally Portfolio Adjustments Are Already Underway. Don't Just Watch the Exchange Rate Charts, Watch Where the Money Flows.
[Layered Analysis]
First Layer: Core Assets, the Main Capital Switch. $BTC 65200, $ETH 3180. $BTC Is Still the Gatekeeper, ETFs Continue to Flow In, But There Is Heavy Resistance Above; $ETH Follows Downtrends but Not Uptrends, Needs a Volume Break Above 3360 to Activate. This Layer Is the Weather Vane; If They Don't Move, Everything Below Is Noise.
Second Layer: AI Narrative, the Tightest Capital Cluster. $TAO 430, $FET 1.85, $RNDR 7.2. AI Is Currently the Only Imaginative Sector, But Differentiation Is Clear. $TAO Has an Independent Rally, $FET Has Merger Expectations, $RNDR Follows the Market. Capital Only Rotates Among Leaders, Avoid the Miscellaneous Tokens.
Third Layer: RWA Compliance Direction. $ONDO 0.92, $CFG 0.08. Traditional Capital Testing the Waters, $ONDO Is the BlackRock Concept, $CFG Is Bond Tokenization. This Layer Follows a Slow Bull Logic, Suitable for Buying the Dip, Not for Chasing Highs.
Fourth Layer: Meme Sentiment. $DOGE 0.16, $PEPE 0.000012, $WIF 2.1. When Sentiment Recedes, a Rebound Is an Escape Opportunity. $DOGE Has Elon Musk Endorsements, $PEPE and $WIF Are Purely Chip Games. There Is a Rebound Today, But Don't Believe the Stories, Trust Your Stop Loss.
[Core Market Data]
$BTC 65200 / -0.8% / 32.4B
$ETH 3180 / -1.2% / 18.8B
$SOL 176 / -2.5% / 6.4B
$XRP 0.58 / +1.3% / 2.2B
$BNB 610 / +0.4% / 1.9B
$TAO 430 / +5.2% / 870M
$ONDO 0.92 / +3.1% / 420M
$DOGE 0.16 / +1.9% / 1.2B
$PEPE 0.000012 / +2.4% / 850M
$WIF 2.1 / -0.6% / 780M
[Capital Flow]
🟢 Capital Concentrated Inflows: $TAO, $ONDO, $XRP
👀 On Watchlist: $ETH, $FET, $CFG
🔴 Weak Trend, No Participation for Now: $SOL, $WIF
🫥 Other Tracked Targets: $RNDR, $DOGE, $BNB
[Trading Suggestions]
Focus on $BTC Range, Currently 65200. Buy on Dip to 64000, Stop Loss at 63200, Targets at 67000 and 68500. If Volume Breaks Below 63200, Short Directly to 61000. Don't Hold Positions; The Current Environment Does Not Support Large Unilateral Moves.
[Risk Warning]
The Biggest Risk Is a Reversal of Yen Carry Trades, Causing US Stocks and Crypto to Delever Simultaneously, Leading to Instant Liquidity Tightening. It Is Recommended to Keep Total Position Under 50%, Leverage No More Than 3x, and All Long Positions Must Have Stop Loss.
In One Sentence: Don't Predict Direction, Follow the Money, Don't Short Without a Break, Don't Long Without a Hold.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB $XRP $ADA $DOGE $AVAX $SHIB $DOT $LTC $LINK $TON $UNI $ATOM $XLM $NEAR $FIL $ICP $APT $SUI $OP $ARB $PEPE $TIA $SEI $INJ $RNDR $FET $TAO $GRT $THETA $ALGO $VET $EOS $TRX $KLAY $ZIL $DASH $XMR $ZEC $MANA $SAND $AXS $AAVE $MKR $COMP $SNX $YFI $CRV $ONDO $CFG $WIF $BCH $HBAR $IMX $ENS $JUP $PYTH $JTO $WLD $AGIX $OCEAN $LDO $AR $FTM $MATIC $NEO $XTZ $EGLD $FLOW $ROSE $KAVA $ANKR $BAT $ZRX $ENJ $CHZ $GALA $MAGIC ##USJapan$LINK
#USJapanConfirmJointCurrencyPurchase
$XRP Confirm Joint Currency Purchase #MarketWatch #CapitalFlow#US and Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase, On the Surface Two Central Banks Are Managing Exchange Rates, But in Reality They Are Applying Brakes on Global Liquidity. The Dollar Is No Longer Tightening Unilaterally, Temporarily Holding Back the "Sudden Cutoff" That Risk Assets Fear Most. But Remember, The Flow Has Changed Direction, Not Increased. Understanding This Is Key to Making Sense of the Following Four Layers.
[Layered Analysis]
First Layer: Core Assets, The Main Capital Switch
$BTC is still oscillating around 65000, $ETH holding steady near 3500. This layer is the main switch for large capital; if it doesn't move, altcoins struggle to have independent rallies. As long as $BTC holds 63000, the whole market has confidence to go long; if it breaks, all layers must downgrade. $SOL has fallen sharply but on-chain activity hasn't collapsed, indicating structural issues within the core pool, temporarily serving as a directional indicator.
Second Layer: AI Narrative, The Tightest Capital Cluster
$TAO is the strongest in this AI wave, followed by $FET and $RNDR. Under a zero-sum capital game, funds only recognize earnings expectations; the AI sector is supported by real computing power demand, so pullbacks attract buyers. But note, $TAO has risen significantly already; chasing now is either catching the top or boarding—watch volume, as shrinking volume signals a bull trap.
Third Layer: RWA Compliance Direction, Traditional Capital Testing Waters
$ONDO leads in RWA, $CFG underpins asset securitization. This sector competes not on sentiment but on licenses and institutional orders. Movement is slow short-term, but once a major Wall Street order lands, elasticity is high. Suitable as a base holding, not for speculation.
Fourth Layer: Meme Sentiment, Rebounds Are Escape Signals
$DOGE pullbacks always spark "Elon Musk will intervene" calls; $PEPE and $WIF follow $DOGE sentiment. However, capital has clearly shifted from pure meme to AI and RWA; rebounds with shrinking volume are escape opportunities—don't get attached to fights.
[Key Market Data]
$BTC 65200 / -0.8% / 32.4B volume shrinking, direction undecided
$ETH 3520 / -1.2% / 17.6B moving with $BTC, no elasticity yet
$SOL 148 / -2.6% / 5.8B high-level pullback, on-chain activity stable
$TAO 610 / +3.4% / 1.2B AI leader, healthy volume and price
$ONDO 1.25 / +1.8% / 450M RWA leader, slow bull rhythm
$DOGE 0.158 / -3.2% / 2.2B veteran meme, capital exiting
$PEPE 0.000012 / -4.5% / 890M sentiment fading, weak rebound
$WIF 2.05 / -5.1% / 620M high-level catch-down, avoid buying
$XAU 2380 / +0.5% / 11.5B safe-haven capital remains, the real big brother
[Capital Flows]
🟢 Capital Concentrated Inflows: $TAO $FET $RNDR $XAU
👀 Watchlist: $BTC $ETH $ONDO $CFG
🔴 Weak Trend, Avoid Participation: $DOGE $PEPE $WIF
🫥 Other Tracked Assets: $SOL $MKR $UNI
[Trading Suggestions]
Focus on going long $BTC. Enter in batches between 64500-65500, stop loss at 62900, first target 68300, second target 69800. If $TAO pulls back to 550-560, consider light entry, stop loss 520, target 640. $DOGE rebound to 0.168-0.172 is a direct short opportunity, stop loss 0.180, target 0.145.
[Risk Warning]
The biggest risk is not the market trend but a sudden change in liquidity expectations. #US and Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase has extended market life, but if the Fed turns hawkish later, risk assets will be repriced. Every long position must have a stop loss, keep position size under 30% of total capital, don't hold losing trades.
Remember, this is not a bull market return but a directional migration of existing capital—follow the right direction to profit, the wrong direction to pay the price.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB $XRP $DOGE $ADA $AVAX $SHIB $LINK $DOT $TRX $MATIC $NEAR $APT $LTC $UNI $ATOM $ETC $XLM $TON $FIL $INJ $IMX $SEI $SUI $TIA $OP $ARB $MKR $AAVE $COMP $CRV $SUSHI $YFI $SNX $LDO $RPL $SSV $PENDLE $JUP $W $ENA $EIGEN $ZK $STRK $TAO $FET $RNDR $AGIX $OCEAN $AR $ONDO $CFG $POLYX $PEPE $WIF $BONK $FLOKI $MEME $SAND $MANA $AXS $GALA $ENJ $CHZ $FLOW $ALT $JASMY $PYTH $WLD $HNT $IOTX $ARKM $LPT $GRT $TWT $CAKE $RUNE $GRT
#US and Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase
$XAU $DYDX
#US and Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase #Liquidity #TradingStrategy$GOOGL's core executive departures have sparked concerns about the pace of technology implementation, with a single-day 5% drop reflecting a reassessment demand for high-valuation tech stocks as risk appetite tightens.
From the market perspective, a $200 billion single-day market cap shrinkage indicates that selling pressure is mainly concentrated on institutional position defense rather than retail trading. The primary drivers of the current trend are, in order: uncertainty in technical execution caused by senior management restructuring, intensified competition within the industry, and the market-wide marginal return scrutiny on AI growth promises.
The executive departures directly undermine market confidence in the premium cycle, with some funds choosing to flee tech giants and move into a wait-and-see stance. The concentrated liquidation of long positions triggers a chain of portfolio adjustments, causing the distribution of holdings to shift toward lower multiples or defensive sectors.
The bullish scenario is based on the assumption of subsequent new model releases or core business data exceeding expectations. If the company demonstrates clear progress in commercialization recently, market sentiment will quickly recover, driving prices to stabilize and fill the gap.
This scenario requires monitoring institutional position stabilization signals and usage metrics of similar AI tools. If competitors like $Meta continue to capture developer market share, this recovery scenario will be invalidated.
The bearish scenario is driven by ongoing team turmoil and an overall decline in market risk appetite. If the wave of departures leads to further loss of mid-level R&D talent, valuation premiums will continue to compress, and prices may further decline seeking new liquidity support.
This scenario requires attention to large block sell-offs and concentrated downward revisions of mid-to-long-term profit expectations by sellers. Once the company announces new R&D breakthroughs or important team replenishments, the downtrend will be directly curtailed.
If market risk appetite for tech stocks overall warms up, or subsequent earnings reports directly prove that core business is unaffected by executive changes, this bearish scenario based on personnel turmoil will lose its validity.
Key observations over the next 7 days include the pace of institutional position liquidation, the extent of sell-side target price revisions, and the rate at which developers switch to competitors' latest tools.
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩On August 5, the Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $60.8576 million in the East Coast, data sourced from SoSoValue📈. BlackRock ETHA contributed the vast majority of the incremental inflow, with single-day inflows of $50.3442 million, and historical cumulative inflows have reached $11.53 billion. Only $4.9382 million flowed into the staked version of ETHB, showing a very clear gap between the two. Currently, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $10.606 billion, accounting for 4.58% of ETH's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.313 billion. The data clearly shows that institutional capital preferences are very clear. Funds heavily tilted toward leading products, with the vast majority of buyers rushing into BlackRock's spot ETF, while the incremental share from other products was minimal. When institutions allocate funds, liquidity and brand are prioritized, and small-scale ETFs rarely receive large orders. The lukewarm reception of staking ETH ETFs indicates that institutions currently prefer pure spot exposure. The additional benefits brought by staking are less attractive; institutions care more about simple transactions and controllable risk, and for now, they have not pursued staking yields on a large scale. The single-day net inflow can only be used as a short-term sentiment reference and cannot be directly equated with the market taking off 💥. The inflow of over 60 million yuan is moderate, not a sudden influx of funds. My view: ETF funds mostly represent a willingness to invest in the medium to long term, and the single-day data is not very convincing. Occasional capital rebounds for a day can't change the market trend. What truly deserves attention is:BTC returns above $64,000: Recovery does not equal reversal
The most common mistake in the market is to directly interpret a price increase as a trend reversal.
As of the morning of August 6:
BTC is about $64,585, up about 0.3% in 24 hours;
ETH is about $1,907, up about 1.8%;
SOL is about $73.77, down about 0.5%.
On the surface, ETH is performing stronger. But looking at funds and sentiment together, the market has not yet entered a full expansion phase.
First, the Fear & Greed Index is still at 27, indicating market sentiment is in the "fear" zone.
Second, over the past three trading days, BTC ETFs have had a net inflow of about $429 million, indicating support at low levels; but over the last ten trading days, funds have still slightly net outflowed, so the direction is unstable.
Third, BTC dominance remains around 58.5%. Funds mainly stay in BTC, ETH shows relative recovery, but high-volatility assets like SOL have not strengthened simultaneously. This looks more like a structural market rather than a broad rally.
Therefore, I temporarily define the current market as:
"BTC-led weak recovery, ETH showing relative strength, altcoin season not yet confirmed."
Next, I will focus on three indicators:
Whether BTC ETFs can maintain continuous net inflows;
Whether BTC dominance declines while ETH and SOL trading activity rises;
Whether contract funding rates remain moderate to avoid rapid leverage buildup.
Before these three conditions resonate, I will not change my market assessment based on one or two bullish candles.
I am Aheng, a crypto market duty officer.
I do not shout trading calls or provide wealth secrets here. I will continuously record where funds go, what the market is trading, and where each judgment might be wrong.
Look at the funds first, then listen to the story; write invalidation conditions first, then opinions.
This post is for market research and information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoMarket #MarketReview #AhengDuty Gold is crazy again.
On August 5th, spot gold broke through $4200, rising 2.8% intraday to reach $4213, hitting a six-week high.
Bloomberg data shows that China's gold spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 14 consecutive trading days. The World Gold Council says that amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties, demand for gold ETFs remains strong.
Social media is full of calls to "buy gold."
Then you glance at BTC—
still hovering around $64,000.
Gold rose 2.8% in one day, while BTC barely moved. Gold's market cap increased by about $1.3 trillion in a single day, while Bitcoin's entire market cap is only $1.29 trillion.
Gold grew by the equivalent of a whole Bitcoin in just one trading day.
And Bitcoin itself only moved 0.17% that day.
No one is talking about BTC anymore.
KOLs on social media are all shouting about gold. No one in groups mentions Bitcoin. Even the criticism has lessened—people are too lazy to even bash it, which means it’s truly been forgotten.
But I’ve started to notice something:
While everyone is chasing gold, who is quietly buying Bitcoin?
On August 3rd, Bitcoin spot ETFs had net inflows of $170 million.
On August 4th, net inflows were $211.5 million.
BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $170 million in a single day, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $60.7 billion.
That’s $380 million over two days.
Institutions are buying. ETFs are continuously flowing in. But the price isn’t moving.
Wintermute’s OTC trader said something interesting: "ETF buying has entered the market but hasn’t pushed Bitcoin up."
To translate—someone is accumulating, but doesn’t want to pump the price.
Look at the on-chain data.
The number of addresses holding at least 1 BTC reached 909,196, a historical high.
Long-term holders control 79% of the circulating supply, also a record high.
Futures open interest has risen significantly, with CME jumping 6.82% in one day. Leveraged funds are actively entering.
On one hand, no one discusses BTC on social media; on the other, institutions and long-term holders are aggressively accumulating.
Consider this divergence.
The mainstream narrative now is: the "digital gold" story has failed—gold rises due to safe-haven demand and rate cut expectations, BTC doesn’t follow because capital doesn’t buy that logic.
That logic isn’t wrong. But the problem is—
Gold’s surge has already priced in too many positives.
Weak ADP data, a falling dollar, easing geopolitical tensions—all these expectations are fully priced in. Gold’s move from 4000 to 4200 was driven by sentiment and capital resonance.
As for BTC’s "non-follow," could it be not a weakening trend but a buildup of momentum?
CryptoQuant says BTC needs three conditions for a sustainable rebound: continuous ETF inflows, stabilization of US Treasury yields, and no more Fed rate hikes.
Continuous ETF inflows—already happening.
US Treasury yields—are declining.
The Fed—market prices in only one more rate hike this year.
All three conditions are gradually being met.
When everyone is chasing gold, maybe it’s time to look at the "forgotten" BTC.
This isn’t telling you to blindly rush in.
$65,000 is the first hurdle; if it doesn’t hold, expect consolidation. If it holds, $68K-$70K is the next target. If it doesn’t, a retest of $62K.
But what I want to say is:
The market always rewards contrarian thinking.
The premise is—survive long enough.
Buy in batches, keep light positions, be patient.
Don’t rush in to catch the falling knife when gold is hottest, and don’t cut losses and exit when BTC is coldest.
Let’s discuss in the comments:
Gold is at 4200, can you still hold BTC?
$BTC $XAU $ETH #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ #US-Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase This news clearly signals official support for the yen. Experienced traders know that once the yen strengthens, global carry trades must unwind, with US stocks and crypto markets taking the first hit. Don’t mistake “joint” for easing; this is actually a signal of tightening liquidity. Right now, the market’s focus shouldn’t be on which coin has positive news, but on the mood of the USD and JPY. Bitcoin hasn’t chosen a direction yet, so don’t rush into heavy positions.
[Layered Analysis]
Layer 1: Core assets, the main capital switch. $BTC remains capped near 65000, ETF inflows slow down, $ETH is weaker, gas fees hit a multi-year low, but as the main switch, when they move, the whole market dares to move.
Layer 2: AI narrative, the tightest capital cluster. $TAO has real demand for computing power protocol, $FET is active again after merging, $RNDR renamed to align more with AI. As long as US tech stocks don’t crash, these three are the favorite safe havens for capital.
Layer 3: RWA compliance direction. $ONDO issues US Treasury tokens, $CFG focuses on asset securitization, traditional capital’s first choice to test waters, but when the market is weak, they only resist declines, no explosive growth expected.
Layer 4: Meme sentiment. $DOGE $PEPE $WIF clearly fading, rebounds with low volume; rebounds at this stage are escape opportunities, don’t catch falling knives.
[Market Core Data]
$BTC 65200 / -0.8% / 32.4B
$ETH 3520 / -1.2% / 16.2B
$SOL 172 / +0.5% / 3.8B
$BNB 580 / -0.3% / 1.2B
$TAO 420 / +3.5% / 520M
$FET 1.85 / +2.1% / 480M
$ONDO 0.95 / +0.6% / 110M
$DOGE 0.163 / -2.4% / 2.2B
$PEPE 0.0000122 / -3.8% / 890M
$WIF 2.85 / -4.2% / 630M
Commentary: Bitcoin is consolidating with shrinking volume, ETH follows weakly, AI chains attract capital against the trend, Meme tokens continue bleeding.
[Capital Flow]
🟢 Capital inflow cluster: $BTC $TAO $FET
👀 Watchlist: $ETH $ONDO $CFG $SOL
🔴 Weak trend, avoid participation: $DOGE $PEPE $WIF $SHIB
🫥 Other tracked targets: $UNI $LINK $AAVE
[Trading Advice]
Focus on going long $TAO. The AI narrative is strongest; as long as the market doesn’t break down, it has the greatest upside elasticity. Entry at 410-420, stop loss at 390, targets at 480 and 520. If $BTC falls below 62000, stop loss unconditionally.
[Risk Warning]
The biggest risk is #US-Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase triggering yen carry trade liquidation, causing indiscriminate global asset sell-off. Position management is more important than directional judgment; single trades should not exceed 10% of total capital, holding losing positions is suicide.
In short: Don’t trust slogans, watch the USD and JPY closely, liquidity is the only judge.
$BTC $ETH $USDT $BNB $SOL $XRP $USDC $ADA $DOGE $TRX $AVAX $DOT $LTC $LINK $MATIC $UNI $TON $SHIB $BCH $NEAR $FIL $LEO $APT $ARB $OP $SUI $INJ $TIA $SEI $STX $IMX $ATOM $XLM $ETC $HBAR $ICP $RNDR $FET $TAO $ONDO $CFG $PEPE $WIF $BONK $FLOKI $ORDI $SATS $DOGS $NOT $GALA $SAND $MANA $AXS $AAVE $MKR $CRV $SNX $COMP $YFI $ZEC $XMR $DASH $EOS $IOTA $ALGO $VET $THETA $KSM $CHZ $ENJ $BAT $ZRX $1INCH $BAL $LRC $QUICK $SUSHI $REEF $HOT $HYPE
#US-Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase
$ETH $CRO
#US-Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase #MarketWatch #ContractTrading #RiskManagementThe total stablecoin market capitalization has dropped to $300.38 billion from an all-time high (ATH) of $322 billion—a decline of 6.8%.
In the previous cycle, the total stablecoin market capitalization fell by 32%, dropping from $185 billion to $124 billion.
Could the stablecoin market cap see such a significant decline this time around? I don't think so; stablecoin adoption has made massive strides since 2023.
The current $BTC price is lower than it was when the total stablecoin market capitalization stood at $185 billion.
P.S. DefiLlama shows a 30-day decline of 1.16%. Around this time in July 2023, the stablecoin market capitalization was $311 billion. The figures don't align; either the current market cap should be above $300 billion, or the rate of decline should be greater than 1.16%.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Korea's increase in the base margin for single-stock leveraged ETFs from ₩10M to ₩30M cut turnover across 16 Samsung and SK Hynix products from ₩12.4T to about ₩1.24T. That is a direct sign of leverage withdrawal.
The KOSPI's 17.91% rebound after an 18% three-session decline shows how unstable positioning became. Claims of a memory supercycle lasting into 2029-2030 may support fundamentals, but this week's unleveraged demand will provide a cleaner signal.
Not advice, just analysis.
#KoreaETFVolDown90 #OKXOrbitYesterday $BTC rose, more like a rebound, still a bit short of a reversal.
Don’t rush to call a trend reversal, folks. This current rise is essentially a corrective rebound within the range, with volume and structure not yet in place. A true reversal requires the price to cleanly break above key resistance, volume to pick up, and sustained strong buying from institutions. It’s still grinding now, don’t be fooled by small bullish candles.
Reviewing yesterday’s rally logic: On August 4, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw an inflow of $211 million at once, followed by another $47.6 million on August 5, led by BlackRock and Fidelity, showing clear institutional demand recovery. Meanwhile, a whale that had been quiet for most of the year suddenly moved 16,400 BTC (about $1.04 billion) off-exchange to a new wallet, not dumping on exchanges. This is not selling pressure but a classic accumulation move—old money quietly positioning while retail is still caught up in price swings.
Adding to this, the unstable Yellow Hair recently started pushing the "peace agreement" narrative again, easing geopolitical tensions and benefiting risk assets. These positives combined make a bounce from the lows quite normal.
But to be blunt: institutional buying is real, whale accumulation is real, Yellow Hair’s talk is real... but the market is currently stuck in a frustrating consolidation. No volume breakout, no real trend strength yet, so this is still a rebound. Reversal? Wait until it truly secures key levels underfoot. $ETH $SNDK #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ Order Book Strength Ranking
Push 1% cost up and down respectively to see clearly where the market is more vulnerable.
For $XSNDK, looking at the 1% price impact, pushing up only requires 195,000, while pushing down needs 1,683,000, so the sell order pressure above is lighter. The path above is lighter; if the price remains stagnant, it indicates that new sell orders or passive sell orders are being replenished.
For $SNXX, pushing up requires 4,121,000, pushing down requires 5,258,000, and the order book thickness on both sides is currently relatively balanced. The order book does not give a one-sided answer; the next active transaction direction with larger volume will be more valuable for reference.
For $BICO, the 1% cost to push up and down is 1,208,000 / 992,000 respectively, with the order book on both sides temporarily close. When costs on both sides are close, don't force direction from static orders; wait for transactions to show the stance first. Market Check
The pullback across BTC, ETH and SOL after all three pushed higher earlier in the session. The short-term structure has weakened, but the charts aren't showing a full breakdown yet.
₿ BTC — $64.5K
$BTC pushed to roughly $65K before sellers stepped in. Price is now back around the $64.5K area, sitting around the 20H MA.
I'm watching $64K below. Hold that and BTC could attempt another move toward $64.8K–$65K. Lose it, and the pullback could deepen toward the $63.9K area.
Ξ ETH — $1,898
$ETH made a stronger push, reaching around $1,928, before giving most of it back. Price is now below the short-term 5H and 10H averages.
$1,890–$1,900 is the zone I'm watching. Reclaiming $1,910+ would improve the short-term picture. Losing $1,890 could bring the $1,870–$1,855 region back into focus.
◎ SOL — $73.51
$SOL looks weakest of the three right now. After touching $74.83, it has been making lower highs and lower lows and is now below all three short-term moving averages.
The immediate level is $73.27. If that breaks, I'd watch for further downside. Bulls need to reclaim roughly $74.0–$74.2 to start repairing the structure.
The market isn't necessarily crashing, it's giving back part of the impulse.
If $BTC stabilizes, $ETH and $SOL may get another chance to recover. If BTC loses it with momentum, I'd expect the pressure to spread across the rest of the market. On-chain anomaly: A small equity account nearly placed a $100 million ETH short order, suspected to be a programmatic test of order book depth.
The account principal was only $335,000, placing a 299x scale TWAP short order, which was urgently withdrawn after 45 seconds, with only a small portion filled.
Yesterday, this address repeatedly placed 39 similar TWAP short orders that were terminated shortly after, testing market slippage and absorption capacity through real trades; there were multiple back-and-forth trades yesterday, with bilateral transactions totaling $218 million, netting a profit of $336,000.
Whether it was a slip of the hand or a deliberate liquidity testing strategy remains uncertain for now.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
$ETH #SanDisk SNDK Earnings Shock: Explosive Performance, Stock Price Drops as a Courtesy# Q4 revenue of 8.97 billion (up 372% YoY), non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, gross margin 84.6%—this quarterly report is a money-printing machine level in any industry. But on August 5, regular session closed down 5.4% at $1350.5, after-hours dropped another 5.87%~8%, once falling below 1272. The reason is simple: next quarter guidance didn’t "exceed expectations." FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion (midpointHow long does it take to go from loss to profit?
$SPCX opened at 110, pulled up to 130, then dropped back to 109 within 3 days.
And the battle for the bears has only just begun.
Tonight's unlocking will bring selling pressure, but it won't be full circulation.
910 million shares—what does full circulation mean? Currently, only 410 million are circulating.
No matter who buys, they can't keep up; the stock price will directly drop to 30-40.
Then the Mars project is basically scrapped, yet some still won't sell and hold long-term.
All IPO projects face selling pressure during their initial circulation.
Don't be misled by too much information; it takes time for the price to fall.
Tonight, once it reaches a certain price, just close the position and wait for the next opportunity.
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH Today's Analysis
Recently, ETF spot has seen continuous positive inflows, institutions have pledged 42,000 ETH again, and whales have been accumulating Ethereum for a consecutive month, with a total increase of over 70,000 ETH, showing long-term holding optimism for Ethereum's future development potential.
Last night after the US stock market opened with a sharp drop, Ethereum and Bitcoin did not follow the decline, indicating that Ethereum remains relatively stable.
However, based on last month's market trend, after breaking through the 1900 level, there will be a short-term pullback.
Personal trading strategy: bearish in the short term, mainly bullish in the mid to long term.
Short-term bearish near 1895 for Ethereum, targeting a rebound around 1880-1870 for a bullish reversal.
Short-term bearish near 64487 for Bitcoin, targeting around 64000-63500.
#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 SanDisk added $3 billion in revenue in a single quarter, with price increases contributing far more than sales volume.
Data center revenue doubled, which is the core highlight of the AI narrative,
but the edge business actually contributed a larger increment, while the consumer business weakened, with uneven demand across downstream sectors.
Earnings breakdown shows: one-third of the quarter-on-quarter growth came from sales volume, two-thirds from price increases.
AI brings prosperity, but price hikes plus product mix optimization are the true sources of profit elasticity.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
$SNDK Following a infrastructure signal overshadowed by the market trend. ZTE has just completed the largest AI data center in Pakistan, with a total power capacity of 8.5 megawatts; on the same day, MiniMax made a major capital increase. Putting these pieces together reveals a clear line: AI computing power infrastructure is being rapidly deployed worldwide, with real demand for electricity, data centers, and chips. This is also why this round of capex narrative is so persistent—it is backed by real orders and real investments. The insight for the crypto community is: narratives like DePIN and decentralized computing power that "ride on AI infrastructure" are very likely to be repeatedly hyped next. Those who understand know that where the trend is, the story will follow.Gold is skyrocketing.
On August 5th, spot gold broke through $4200, with a daily gain of 3.2%. COMEX gold futures closed at $4308, surging 3.74% in a single day. Silver also rose above $62, up more than 4% intraday.
Gold's market value surged by about $1.3 trillion in one day.
That's more than half of the entire cryptocurrency market capitalization.
In one day, $1.3 trillion.
What about Bitcoin?
BTC is still hovering between $64,000 and $65,000. Spot ETFs saw net inflows totaling $382 million over two consecutive days, and BlackRock's IBIT attracted $281 million in two days—institutions are buying, but the price remains unchanged.
Let's lay out all the positive factors:
ADP employment data for July increased by only 44,000, far below the expected 70,000, marking the smallest increase since January this year.
The US dollar plunged. US Treasury yields fell.
Fed rate hike expectations cooled down.
Employment collapsed, the dollar dropped, and interest rate expectations eased—all conditions favorable for BTC.
Yet the money flowed into gold.
Why?
Three words: They don't recognize you.
This round of gains is a "rate cut expectation trade"—funds are betting the Fed will be forced to pivot. Gold is the oldest asset in this narrative, a five-thousand-year human consensus that institutions buy blindly.
Where does BTC rank in this narrative?
ETFs are buying, but the price is stagnant. What does this mean? It means marginal buyers are not true one-sided bulls. They are doing allocation, hedging, arbitrage—not here to pump the price.
The "digital gold" narrative is temporarily failing at this point.
Peter Schiff has long said: the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has never truly existed. In 2026, gold rose 9%, while Bitcoin fell 11%. The BTC/gold ratio dropped to a historic low.
We've been shouting "digital gold" for so many years,
Real gold is quietly making big money, while our "digital gold" is stuck around $64,000.
But I don't think BTC will stay like this forever.
Gold's rise follows the old world's logic—inflation, geopolitics, central bank gold purchases. BTC's rise follows the new world's logic—technology adoption, regulatory frameworks, ecosystem expansion.
Two worlds, two pricing systems.
Today, funds chose the five-thousand-year-old story.
BTC needs its own catalyst—either a volume breakout above $65,000 to confirm recovery, or a new narrative to drive it.
Until then, the "boring bottoming" around $64,000 might be the norm.
$BTC $XAU $ETH #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ Here's a thermometer for the primary market. The registered capital of AI unicorn MiniMax's affiliated company just increased from 4 billion to 5.5 billion, and three months ago it had only risen from 1 billion to 4 billion — more than a 5-fold increase in registered capital within half a year. The pricing heat for AI in the primary market is, to some extent, even fiercer than the surge in the secondary market. Looking at it alongside the capex cycle: money is still pouring wildly into computing power and models, with no signs of cooling in the short term. The implication for crypto is twofold — it proves that risk appetite hasn't receded, but it also shows that incremental funds are now more willing to go into AI rather than $BTC. Where the money flows is more honest than prices.#SanDisk SNDK Earnings Shock: Explosive Performance, Stock Price Drops as a Courtesy#
Q4 revenue of 8.97 billion (up 372% YoY), non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, gross margin 84.6%—this quarterly report is a money-printing machine level in any industry.
But on August 5, regular session closed down 5.4% at $1350.5, after-hours dropped another 5.87%~8%, once falling below 1272.
The reason is simple: next quarter guidance didn’t "exceed expectations."
FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion (midpoint 10.55 billion), below the sell-side expectation of 11.16 billion; EPS guidance midpoint of 45 is also slightly weaker.
The market had previously priced in all the optimism for AI storage—volatility was 25% from late July to August 5, with a big 10.84% surge on August 4, loosening the chips heavily.
Now, a new $14 billion buyback (remaining authorization $15.5 billion) supports the floor, and institutions’ 12-month average price target still stands at $2217 (+64%). #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck "The runner-up finally doesn't feel like the runner-up today" $ETH
The most outrageous scene in the crypto world today:
$BTC is still gasping at the 64,000 mark (+0.6%), while ETH has quietly surged back to $1,910, up 2% in 24h, reclaiming half of the runner-up's dignity.
Why say it has "the most advantage" today? Not because it rose the most, but because it is being fed by institutions on three fronts simultaneously:
ETF continuous inflows: On 8/5 net inflow was about $73 million, on 8/6 another net inflow of about $98 million, BlackRock's ETHA swept over $100 million in two days, Fidelity's FETH followed suit; Grayscale's ETHE is still bleeding but can't suppress the overall inflow.
RWA + stablecoin foundation: In Q1 2026, tokenized assets on Ethereum chain are $203.4 billion, stablecoins $178.9 billion, lending accounts for 79.2% of the top five public chains—BlackRock and JPMorgan basically default to this layer on-chain, not something $SOL can compete with.
Staking as a new savings vault: The network-wide staking rate exceeds 31%, with over 36 million ETH locked long-term, exchange balances have returned to lows not seen since 2016, circulating supply is getting tighter and tighter.
BTC is "digital gold," valuable even when idle; ETH is a "leased office building"—many tenants, rent is collected, and it's constantly being renovated and expanded. Today's surge is not a FOMO pump, it's institutions buying another floor of the office building.
In the short term, 1928–1950 is resistance; if it can't break through, expect consolidation; but in the mid to long term, ETH's moat is not "fast gains," but "others can't copy homework from it."
⚠️ Market record, not investment advice, don't leverage bet on my words. After finishing writing about Coldcard yesterday, I kept thinking about one question: after vulnerabilities are found by AI, what happens next?
Today, I have an answer: a protocol locked its own doors.
It wasn’t hacked; it calculated that it couldn’t win and proactively shut down.
The one closing shop is called Boltz. Bitcoin isn’t just one chain: the main chain is secure but slow and has high fees; the Lightning Network is almost instant and has near-zero fees, suitable for small payments like buying coffee. The coins on both sides don’t interoperate, so you need a window to help you exchange them, and Boltz does exactly that. Moreover, it doesn’t touch your money; a transaction either succeeds on both sides simultaneously or the money automatically returns to your own wallet.
On Monday, August 3rd, it posted that it would suspend exchange services indefinitely.
The reason was just one sentence: "Attackers are now iterating faster than teams of our scale can find and patch vulnerabilities." And "we don’t believe this asymmetry will reverse."
Users didn’t lose a cent; the non-custodial structure means the money was never in its hands.
At shutdown, the total funds locked inside were $180,000. Not 180 million, but 180 thousand. The price of a house, which is its entire scale.
In the same report, an AI service accepting Bitcoin payments, PayPerQ, said they have been blocking exploit attempts every other week for months, most of which they believe are AI-driven. The Solana Foundation’s head of security said the only way out is to let autonomous defense operate at machine speed.
Non-custodial has always been considered the highest security model: the money is in your hands, no one can take it. This time it did protect the funds, but it couldn’t protect the service.
A protocol can ensure no money is lost, but it can’t ensure it won’t shut down. I never thought about these two things separately before.
There’s another calculation I’ve been making. The attacker uses AI to scan code in bulk; scanning 100 projects costs about the same as scanning one. The defender has to read code, patch, verify, and deploy. This asymmetry isn’t a mindset issue; it’s a cost structure issue, and Boltz itself said it won’t reverse.
I think what will likely disappear next won’t be vulnerabilities, but small services that can’t afford security teams, and the vast majority of crypto services are at this scale.
On the other hand, panic might also be overestimated; let’s just hope everything moves in a positive direction.7月1日Leopold 的 Situational Awareness 基金据称规模达到450亿美元，年内收益约450%最高使用约4倍杠杆。 7月10日至20日AI相关股票开始集体暴跌，很多标的在两周内下跌30%以上。 Leopold的多头仓位包括SK海力士、SNDK、BE、Nebius等，这些股票的跌幅远高于大盘。更麻烦的是，他同时做空Adobe等软件股。 AI硬件股暴跌时，部分软件股却开始反弹，基金很可能出现了典型的多空双输局面。 7月24日Leopold 向投资人发送信件，承认基金遭受巨大损失，但仍将这轮暴跌称为2025年初以来最好的AI买入机会。 7月28日至29日基金开始向投资人和贷款机构紧急融资，随后遭遇银行追缴保证金。 7月30日基金被迫卖掉全部公开市场股票仓位，Citadel接走了其中大部分。 真正能活下来的交易者，不是最敢梭哈的人，而是每次错了还能留在牌桌上的人。The total stablecoin market capitalization has dropped to $300.38 billion from an all-time high (ATH) of $322 billion—a decline of 6.8%.
In the previous cycle, the total stablecoin market capitalization fell by 32%, dropping from $185 billion to $124 billion.
Could the stablecoin market cap see such a significant decline this time around? I don't think so; stablecoin adoption has made massive strides since 2023.
The current BTC price is lower than it was when the total stablecoin market capitalization stood at $185 billion.
P.S. DefiLlama shows a 30-day decline of 1.16%. Around this time in July 2023, the stablecoin market capitalization was $311 billion. The figures don't align; either the current market cap should be above $300 billion, or the rate of decline should be greater than 1.16%.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck