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Using the gold price after the establishment of the first U.S. national gold reserve in 1792 as a reference, this analysis fits and projects the Bitcoin price after the anticipated first U.S. national Bitcoin reserve establishment in 2026.
The essence of the history in 1792 is that "the U.S. national legislation established the monetary identity of gold assets." By analogy, the institutional allocation of Bitcoin in 2026 resembles a process of "monetizing digital gold."
1. The 1792 historical template: Legislation establishes "monetary identity." In 1792, the U.S. Congress passed the Coinage Act, with core measures including: fixing the official gold price at approximately $19.3–20 per ounce, establishing the legal exchange relationship between the dollar and gold; creating a national institution—the U.S. Mint was founded to manufacture circulating currency and manage gold reserves; initiating a century-long period of price stability—over the next 100+ years, gold prices fluctuated narrowly between $18 and $20, rising only slightly from $19.39 to $53.35 in the first 72 years.
The impact of the 1792 gold price was not a "surge," but an "institutional anchoring"—gold transformed from a commodity into the cornerstone of the national monetary system. The major price explosion only came after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971.
2. The reality in 2026: Bitcoin is undergoing "monetization." In 2026, Bitcoin is experiencing a similar institutionalization process but at a much faster pace than gold did.
ETF institutional channel: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided a compliant entry point for institutions. Bitwise expects substantial institutional inflows through ETFs in the second half of the year. Bernstein maintains a year-end target price of $150,000, and JPMorgan projects a long-term target of $266,000 based on comparisons with gold.
Continuous net buying by institutions: Strategy holds 842,138 BTC; Morgan Stanley’s total holdings exceed 6,331 BTC; Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and others increased holdings in Q1 2026.
Formation of a structural supply gap: Institutional purchases exceed miner production by 76%, and whale holdings rose from 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 to 3.06 million BTC.
3. Scenario simulation: Three paths based on the 1792 logic.
Path One: Institutional anchoring (1792 baseline reference). If institutional allocation continues steadily without explosive buying, Bitcoin may follow a "long-term slow bull" pattern similar to post-1792 gold—price base gradually rising with significantly reduced volatility. Year-end target range: $95,000–$150,000.
Path Two: The "Bretton Woods moment" for digital gold (accelerated version). It took nearly 180 years from 1792 for gold prices to truly surge. In the digital age, this process is drastically compressed—if more countries or pension funds include Bitcoin in strategic reserves, prices could surge to $266,000 or higher.
Path Three: Institutional "double-edged sword" (risk scenario). Gold was "locked" at fixed official prices for a century after 1792. If Bitcoin ETF inflows slow (institutional holdings declined 17% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026), prices could retreat to the $55,000–$70,000 range.
4. Core conclusions
The lesson from 1792 gold is that institutionalization grants an asset "monetary identity," but true price revaluation often takes decades. The difference for Bitcoin in 2026 is that capital flows in the digital age compress this process to years or even months. Institutions are not engaging in short-term speculation but redefining Bitcoin from a "commodity" to a "reserve asset of the digital era." This process may proceed faster than gold did after 1792. Especially after widespread RWA in European and American stock markets, risk-off sentiment drives capital to seek a one-stop safe haven. Whether traditional or emerging assets prevail remains to be seen.#Nonfarm unexpectedly turns negative, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes
The nonfarm data came out at -23,000, with an expectation of 80,000, directly turning negative. But the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% because the labor force participation rate fell, just like in previous instances, the data is conflicting with itself.
The market reacted quickly, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping to 44%, while Kalshi's probability of maintaining the current rate actually rose to 65%. Short-term employment data has indeed loosened rate hike expectations, but the real issue is next week's CPI. If CPI rises again, rate hike expectations will bounce back. As always, employment data and inflation data are pulling against each other, with both bulls and bears waiting.
$SNDK SanDisk is currently trading in the 1200-1300 range. I estimate that in about a week, SanDisk will likely oscillate between 1200 and 1300. If it breaks below, there will be buyers; if it rises, there will be selling pressure, so both upside and downside are limited. Previously it hit a low of 1186 but did not break 1100, which is better than I expected. This indicates there is still support at this level, and the market has not completely given up on the medium- to long-term logic of storage.
The grid strategy has paused because it stopped below the lower boundary of the range at 1219, with the price around 1216. The strategy is paused, but the base position remains. When the price returns above 1219, the grid will automatically resume. If SanDisk really trades in the 1200-1300 range for a week, the grid can resume and continue running, making this range sufficient for grid arbitrage. $SNDK
Bold speculation: this rally is not new bulls entering, but a defensive move by existing funds.
If the market drops further, it will trigger a chain reaction of massive contract liquidations. With increased volatility in the US stock market, institutions are unwilling to see the crypto market collapse alongside it, so they temporarily step in to support the market.
A strange phenomenon now: risk assets rebound while gold and US bonds strengthen simultaneously. Risk assets and safe-haven assets rising together is logically contradictory.
Upcoming tests include non-farm payroll and inflation data. If the data exceeds expectations with a hawkish bias, both crypto and US stocks will come under pressure.
Is this wave a reversal or just a support during a downtrend continuation? Discussion is welcome.$SPCX confirmed entering a crazy short squeeze mode last night, surging 16% with a volume breakout!
I decisively stopped shorting below $110 and switched to long positions— the short squeeze was expected, but unfortunately, the longs did not fill. Judging from the volume and price structure on the chart, this rebound won't end quickly: the $135 issuance price will definitely be broken through, the $150 opening price is very likely to be reached, while the additional unlocking condition price of $175 (already invalid) is hard to surpass. Even at $135, SPCX's current valuation is clearly expensive.
This rally is precisely creating space for the next short. I have accumulated profits of over $100,000 on SPCX, thanks to Musk; but the storage sector (SNDK, MU) has losses of about $50,000. Storage is currently in a consolidation and distribution phase—the main forces have neither broken key resistance nor fallen below key support, but over time, pressure on cyclical stocks is accumulating. I have established short positions, with floating profits and losses repeatedly tugging within a narrow range, and my directional judgment remains unchanged. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound Nature finds a way.
CLARITY missed its window this week. NFP came in ugly job losses instead of gains. Two of the biggest question marks on everyone's calendar, both resolved by Friday.
And price didn't care about either headline. It just moved.
BTC held above $64,900, tagged $65,300 intraday. Bad jobs data, somehow good for rate-cut odds, somehow good for BTC. Gold didn't just react it surged past $4,350, one of its sharpest weekly moves in years. Silver broke a resistance level most people weren't even watching. Nasdaq spent most of the week getting sold, then printed a hammer candle Thursday into Friday like nothing happened.
BTC dominance is quietly doing its own thing too up to 59.52%, testing resistance it hasn't touched since early July. Capital isn't fleeing Bitcoin for alts here. If anything, it's consolidating into it.
DXY sits in the middle of a two-month squeeze right now, and weak data usually pushes it toward the lower end of that range. A softer dollar doesn't just help Bitcoin it tends to help gold, silver, and risk assets all at once.
None of this was the headline. The headline was a jobs report and a bill that didn't get a vote. Price found its way around both anyway.
Next real test: CPI in a couple weeks, then the Fed on September 16. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus 🚀 Bitcoin Short Squeeze Trap: When 64,000 Becomes a "Fake Bottom," What You're Holding Isn't a Pullback, It's a Whale's Harvesting Scythe
📌 Key Summary: Bitcoin has formed a textbook "short squeeze trap" around $64,000. While the market widely expects seasonal weakness in August to push prices below $60,000, whales have aggressively accumulated 66,700 BTC (about $4.3 billion) within 60 days. ETF funds have seen three consecutive weeks of net inflows, and the surprising nonfarm payroll data directly ignited the rebound engine. This is not ordinary volatility—it's big money exploiting retail fear to complete the final round of cheap chip accumulation. This article will deeply analyze the current market's triple game logic and provide practical strategies for trapped shorts to escape.
1. Data Doesn't Lie: Who's Frenziedly Buying Below $60,000?
As of August 8, 2026, Bitcoin is priced at $64,916, up 1.07% in 24 hours. On the surface, this looks like a mild rebound. But if you only look at the candlesticks, you'll miss the undercurrents beneath the surface.
Whale accumulation data is shocking. CryptoQuant on-chain data shows that in the past 60 days, whale addresses have net bought 66,700 BTC, worth about $4.3 billion. This is the largest accumulation since 2026 began. More importantly, these chips were built at costs concentrated between $57,500 and $62,000—exactly the core area of June lows and current support zones. This means that while retail panicked and sold, smart money quietly took over.
ETF fund flows are even more telling. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $754 million in the first week of August, with no single-day outflows for multiple consecutive days. On August 6 alone, net inflows reached $137.6 million, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $128.3 million. Within three days, cumulative net inflows hit $626 million. This level of institutional buying was almost unseen in the first half of 2026—overall net outflows were about $5.4 billion in that period. Institutions are voting with real money: below $60,000 is a value basin, not a downtrend continuation.
Grayscale research head Zach Pandl's assessment is worth noting: "The Fed holding rates steady means the macro environment is shifting from headwinds to tailwinds, and Bitcoin's price may be near the bottom." Kraken chief economist Thomas Perfumo further points out that this pullback offers an excellent opportunity for medium- to long-term funds to reposition.
2. Nonfarm Payroll Data Surprise: The "Nuclear Button" for Short Covering Has Been Pressed
The US nonfarm employment data released on August 7 became the fuse for this rebound. The data showed a decrease of 23,000 jobs in July, while the market expected an increase of 80,000. This rare negative growth in employment directly shook market confidence in the US economy's resilience.
But what does this mean for Bitcoin? Three simultaneous bullish factors were released:
🔸 Weakening dollar: Weak economic data directly pressured the dollar index, benefiting Bitcoin priced in dollars;
🔸 Declining US Treasury yields: Rising rate cut expectations compressed bond yields, reducing the appeal of cash and fixed income, rotating funds into risk assets;
🔸 Risk appetite recovery: The macro liquidity environment turned favorable, providing systemic support for cryptocurrencies.
More subtle is the market structure. Binance retail BTC long-short ratio has dropped to 0.7, an extremely bearish zone. Historical experience repeatedly shows that whenever the long-short ratio falls below 1, it often corresponds to a phase bottom. Similar patterns appeared in early 2024, September 2024, and early 2025—after short positions become highly crowded, once price breaks upward, it triggers cascade liquidations, creating a short squeeze rally. Currently, the $72,200 to $73,500 range has accumulated a large number of short positions, involving about $6 billion in short exposure. Once this "fuel" is ignited, the rebound could far exceed expectations.
3. The "Lie" of Technicals: Head and Shoulders or a Bear Trap?
Many technical analysts have recently emphasized a dangerous signal: Bitcoin has been forming a "head and shoulders" pattern since March 2026, with the right shoulder rising accompanied by declining volume—a typical "exhaustion" signal. If the neckline at $60,965 is effectively broken, the theoretical target would be $41,266—implying a further 35% downside.
But there's a key overlooked detail: the same pattern appeared at critical bottom areas in 2024 and 2025 and was ultimately proven to be a bear trap.
The weekly RSI indicator offers a clearer answer. The current RSI is at 39.30, with the signal line at 32.88, forming a clear bullish divergence—price makes new lows while RSI makes new highs. This pattern has appeared before every major Bitcoin rebound in history. The previous three bearish divergences accurately predicted the 2025 top and subsequent sell-offs, and at this cycle stage, the reverse bullish divergence is equally significant.
The distribution of key resistance levels is also worth examining:
📍 $65,705 — weekly high and bear market resistance zone; breaking through confirms a short-term trend reversal;
📍 $68,468 — 200-week moving average, a key higher timeframe level;
📍 $69,445 — 20-week moving average, continuously declining and limiting weekly gains;
📍 $78,365 — 50-week moving average, extended resistance; breaking through opens the door to $80,000.
CoinCodex quantitative models expect BTC to rise to $81,985 by the end of 2026, about 29% upside from current prices. LongForecast's prediction is more aggressive: the average price in August could reach $89,018, with a high of $95,249.
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH $SPCX 宏观这边的逻辑很直接，非农新增录得负值，失业率抬到4.1%，劳动参与率创五年新低，就业市场降温信号明确。九月加息预期大幅回落，美元和美债收益率走弱，全球流动性宽松的预期开始升温。$BTC 在这个位置兼具避险和风险资产双重属性，宽松周期最初期，资金天然要找弹性最大的方向，加密市场就是那个方向。当前 $BTC 报价65029美元，回调不是风险，是给踏空的人递上车票。 监管端的CLARITY法案推迟到九月复会，年内通过概率掉到35.5%，市场已经提前把合规交易所和 $XRP 抛了一轮，短期利空基本定价完毕。法案众议院高票通过是事实，卡在民主党伦理条款协商，九月重启谈判落地确定性依然很高。恐慌盘砸出来的估值洼地，正好是 $BNB 这类合规平台币的博弈窗口，现价592.8美元附近，修复行情的赔率比追高主流币舒服得多。 两条主线其实清晰：$BTC 和 $ETH 吃流动性宽松红利，拿住就行，$BNB 赌九月法案回暖，弹性更大。九月复会投票是节点，但不用提前焦虑，波动率放大反而给轻仓上车的机会。 $BTC #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $CORE has collapsed from its historical peak of 6.9U all the way down, hitting a low of 0.01506, with an overall drop exceeding 99.7%. Looking across the entire sector, very few projects have experienced such an extreme prolonged downtrend over several years.
But the most intriguing and ironic point is: the lower the price falls, the more elaborate the narrative becomes; the weaker the market, the denser the new concepts.
Countless investors trapped at high levels remain puzzled: despite the long-term weakening trend and fundamental pressure, why has the official team never stopped updating the ecosystem story? The overwhelming BTCFi infrastructure, Satoshi Plus consensus, and Bitcoin power grid narratives, when stripped of their flashy packaging, essentially represent a mature market stabilization logic.
The primary purpose of continuously delivering grand narratives is to lock in the massive high-level trapped positions. The vast majority of users entered with heavy positions at high prices, suffering staggering losses. Without new market expectations or stories for a long time, holding confidence would completely collapse, triggering a concentrated stampede sell-off. Frequent updates of the ecosystem blueprint and sector planning are continuous efforts to prop up the market with promises, preserving retail investors' rebound hopes and delaying large-scale selling pressure.
The second purpose is to attract incremental off-market funds. After the early enthusiasm for delegated network-wide computing power completely faded, the narrative system immediately iterated and switched to the Bitcoin power grid sector positioning. By continuously generating topic exposure and sector hype, it attracts new BTCFi participants, attempting to use fresh capital to absorb the mountain of historical trapped chips above.
The third purpose is to maintain the remaining liquidity in the market. The long-term one-way decline has continuously shrunk CORE's trading depth and dampened market activity. Continuously creating ecosystem hotspots helps stabilize miners, staking users, and community sentiment. As long as the market still has topics and trading counterparts, early chips and institutional staking chips still have space to realize and escape.
Seeing through the essence reveals that the entire promotional system is full of formulaic packaging.
It is adept at swapping concepts to confuse reality, habitually packaging long-term technical plans and intended cooperation resources as concrete achievements for aggressive promotion. The so-called Bitcoin power grid has unavoidable flaws: miner computing power is purely profit-driven and mobile, clustering when returns are high and dispersing when low; floating computing power cannot be considered permanent underlying infrastructure. The once viral 90% computing power delegation gimmick was further hyped by modifying statistical criteria, deliberately confusing the number of mining pools with actual effective hash rate.
It excels at narrative rotation to cover bad news. Whenever ecosystem delivery falls short of expectations, large token unlock pressure arrives, or the market is about to break down, a brand-new sector concept is launched on time. Using new hype to cover old problems, diverting market attention, deliberately avoiding core pain points like heavy chip structure and ongoing inflation.
It is even better at selectively reporting good news while ignoring bad news. Promotional copy extensively portrays ecosystem layout and sector status but rarely confronts core shortcomings: long-term linear unlocking continuously releasing chips, expanding circulating supply, and lack of mature burn mechanisms. Everyone is watching whether the overwhelming ecosystem expansion can truly generate real demand to absorb the continuously increasing new token supply.
It is undeniable that the project has consistently advanced technology development and ecosystem construction, which should be viewed objectively. But the years-long weakening trend does not lie; round after round of narrative hype has long departed from pure technical education and become the main tool for stabilizing market sentiment.
Stories can iterate infinitely, and promotion can never end, but the massive trapped positions piled up on the market and the continuously released token selling pressure cannot be easily resolved by a few grand narratives.
If you are optimistic about subsequent recovery, vote A; if you believe the narrative cannot reverse the weak trend, vote B. Feel free to leave comments and discuss!
A. Deeply cultivate the BTCFi sector, with long-term layout expected to bring value recovery
B. Rely on narrative to stabilize sentiment, but difficult to reverse the long-term weak pattern
⚠️Market opinion exchange only, does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; stay away from leverage and participate rationally. One green candle can make the whole market feel bullish. But don’t let one candle change your thesis. 🎬
Tonight’s NFP move looks great on the chart, but I’m not convinced it’s the start of a real reversal.
To me, this looks more like a short squeeze + sentiment repair than fresh money aggressively entering the market.
Shorts got flushed, bearish positioning eased, and the market bounced hard. But the bigger picture hasn’t changed much yet. On-chain flows and ETF inflows still haven’t shown the kind of strength I’d want to see. And those massive ETF outflows from June haven’t been fully repaired.
That’s why I’m not touching my $BTC short for now—and I’m definitely not panic-closing it just because we got one strong bullish candle.
For me, a real reversal needs confirmation:
📌 CPI needs to cooperate.
📌 ETFs need to show sustained net inflows for several days.
📌 On-chain liquidity needs to start improving.
Until then, I’m treating this as a relief rally, not a confirmed trend reversal.
The market loves putting on a show.
So let it perform. 🍿
I’ll be sitting here watching for the confirmation. 🎬
#DailyOrbit Why are $SOL and $HYPE worth watching? Don't just focus on the 24-hour gains; first, see if real capital is willing to trade.
Many people choose popular coins in a very simple way: open the gainers list and chase whichever has risen the most. But this method actually means actively buying assets that have already gone through a round of volatility.
What’s more worth observing is whether "capital is continuously willing to trade in this sector."
An interesting data point is from the SIX Swiss Exchange's May 2026 crypto ETP report, where the 21Shares Hyperliquid HYPE staking ETP had a turnover of about $16.29 million, and the 21Shares Solana staking ETP about $15.56 million. Both are even significantly higher than some single BTC and ETH products during the same period.
This doesn’t prove that HYPE or SOL will definitely rise, but at least it shows one thing: there is already trading demand for assets beyond BTC and ETH on traditional trading venues.
So when I screen popular coins, I look at four layers: whether the sector has a sustained narrative → whether spot trading volume is increasing → whether the rise is driven only by contract open interest → whether it can maintain relative strength when BTC falls.
The last point is especially important. Truly strong coins don’t just rise quickly when BTC goes up; they fall less when BTC pulls back.
Risk warning: The biggest trap in popular sectors is mistaking "high trading volume" for "low risk." Assets like SOL and HYPE still have volatility significantly higher than BTC. The more crowded the hotspot, the more positions should be reduced accordingly.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound It's the weekend, and mainstream coins are starting to experience low liquidity. Unexpectedly, this week $BTC and $ETH are still range-bound without breakthroughs or declines.
In the past couple of days, I've shifted my focus to other coins. Personally, when selecting coins, I don't look at the price increase but whether there is capital accumulation and strong narratives.
$BICO: The strongest is traffic, and the most dangerous is also traffic.
Recently, $BICO's price surge has been very exaggerated, but this trend primarily indicates concentrated attention, which does not mean a sudden fundamental change in magnitude.
Biconomy experienced token contract migration events this year, and market attention to it has clearly increased.
Therefore, I tend to define $BICO as:
A high Beta capital observation target, not a position to blindly chase gains.
$ZBT: Worth observing whether the "technical narrative can turn into capital narrative"
$ZBT belongs to infrastructure, focusing on privacy computing.
For this type of coin, the most important thing is not how much it rises in a day, but whether we can see:
User growth → On-chain activity → Real demand → Liquidity improvement.
If there is only exchange trading volume without on-chain data support, it easily becomes a purely trading-driven market.
$ALLO: AI × Crypto remains a capital-favored crossover sector
The greatest value of $ALLO is not the word "AI" itself, but its attempt to combine AI inference, models, and on-chain economy.
Once such a project shows:
Developer growth + Network usage + Incentive capital + TVL
Rising simultaneously, that is the fundamental resonance truly worth attention.
$SUI: Among public chains, I pay more attention to whether ecological capital continues to settle
The core observation indicators for $SUI are not just price.
I focus on:
TVL, stablecoin scale, DEX trading volume, active addresses, and ecosystem project financing.
The worst scenario for public chain markets is "coin price rises, but ecosystem does not."
If ecological data improves synchronously, it means capital is spreading from trading layers to on-chain fundamentals.
$LINK: Infrastructure-type asset, suitable for observing institutional capital preferences
$LINK's logic is completely different from $MEME.
It represents:
Oracles + Cross-chain + RWA infrastructure.
This type of asset usually does not rise fastest during the market's most frenzied times, but if the market enters a "quality premium" phase, it is easier to attract sustained capital.
$ONDO: The capital thermometer for the RWA sector
What really matters for RWA is not the concept, but:
On-chain asset scale, institutional participation, and the connection between stablecoins and real financial assets.
If $ONDO shows synchronized expansion of trading volume and on-chain asset scale again, it is far more significant than a single-day surge.
$TAO: In the AI sector, I pay more attention to "real network effects"
$TAO's advantage is that its narrative is no longer a simple AI Meme.
What the market truly needs to verify is:
Miner/validator incentives → Subnet ecosystem → Model demand → Network value capture
If these can form a closed loop, it may evolve from an "AI concept coin" to an "AI infrastructure asset."
$ZEC: A veteran privacy sector coin, a high-elasticity observation target
$ZEC's characteristics are obvious:
Fundamental narrative is relatively independent, but market attention is highly cyclical.
The biggest feature of this coin is that once capital returns to the privacy sector, elasticity can be very large.
But we must not ignore:
Liquidity, regulatory expectations, and large-chip behavior.
So it is more suitable as an observation pool rather than chasing volume spikes.
$RESOLV: The first thing to look at is risk, not price gains
$RESOLV's problem is very typical:
The project narrative can be very attractive, but the token supply structure must be examined first.
Currently, public unlocking data shows a significant gap between circulating supply and maximum supply; future unlocks themselves are potential supply pressure.
So for this coin, I focus on:
Unlocking → Net inflow to exchanges → Large holder balances → Volume support.
If the price rises while large chips continuously enter exchanges, caution should be increased.
For small-cap assets like $BICO, $ALLO, and $ZBT, I ultimately look at only one thing:
Whether "smart money" shifts from short-term trading to long-term holding.
True capital rotation is usually not:
This coin rises 300% today, then switches to another tomorrow.
But rather:
$BTC, $ETH stabilize → Mainstream public chains take over → Infrastructure, RWA, AI attract capital → Small-cap assets show high Beta diffusion.
So my current altcoin observation framework is getting simpler:
First look at liquidity, then on-chain data;
First look at chip structure, then narrative;
Finally, look at price gains.
Next week, I will also observe "AI infrastructure chains" in the US stock market.
Especially $AAOI, $COHR, $AEHR, $RDW, $LUNR, $CRWV and similar.
Recently, the US optical communication sector has been clearly driven by AI data center demand and potential restrictions on Chinese optical module imports, with $COHR, $AAOI showing strong performance recently.
But also note:
AI infrastructure ≠ mindless rally.
The optical module industry chain still faces supply chain, valuation, and technology route switching risks.
So now I prefer to view:
Crypto's AI, RWA, infrastructure and US stocks' AI computing power, optical communication, and data centers on the same capital map.
Personal thoughts shared, not investment advice. 🔥 The storage chip sector is once again favored by institutions, as AI demand is reshaping industry logic.
Bank of America maintains a buy rating on SanDisk following its latest earnings report and continues to set a $2500 price target, implying about an 85% upside from the reference price.
Bank of America believes the market may currently be underestimating the sustainability of SanDisk's future profitability.
Historically, the storage chip industry has been seen as highly cyclical, with prices easily affected by supply and demand changes.
But this time, AI is changing the industry landscape.
With the rapid expansion of AI data centers, enterprise SSD demand continues to grow, and long-term supply agreements are increasing, the NAND storage industry is shifting from pure cyclical fluctuations to a more stable demand structure.
Simply put:
Storage used to rely on cycles; now AI is creating a new growth cycle.
Without storage, computing power cannot be unleashed;
Without data, AI cannot evolve.
For the crypto market, the logic behind this is equally worth attention.
Whether it's AI, DePIN, or decentralized computing, the future development of the digital world depends on underlying hardware infrastructure.
The market may fluctuate in the short term, but the real big trend is often hidden in changes in industry demand.
When capital starts to allocate to infrastructure, it indicates the market is seeking the next phase of value growth.
The AI wave is still ongoing; the real opportunities may lie not only in the application layer but also in the underlying industries that support the entire era.Nonfarm payrolls shocked the market, and the market is again betting on a rate cut! $BTC What's the next move?
Last night saw a major shift, with July's nonfarm payrolls directly contradicting expectations.
New jobs decreased by 23,000 instead of increasing, far below expectations, and the employment data for the previous two months was significantly revised downward, indicating that the previous strong employment figures were somewhat inflated.
Once the data was released, the dollar plunged, US Treasury yields fell, and the market immediately started betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut. US stocks, gold, and the crypto market all rose!
But now the market's focus is not on the nonfarm payrolls, but on July's CPI next week. If inflation continues to cool, expectations for a rate cut in September may rise, giving BTC a chance to push through resistance levels.
In the US stock market, indices continue to hit new highs, but the storage sector collectively declined;
In the crypto market, BTC surged near 65,000 before pulling back.
Regarding regulation, the clear legislation has been postponed to September, removing this catalyst, but ETFs continue to see inflows, and institutions have not fully exited yet.
So I plan to wait for BTC to firmly hold above 65,000, targeting 66,000
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 If the US and Iran can truly sit at the negotiating table and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, then the global pricing logic for crude oil will have to be rewritten. A 15% to 20% drop in Brent crude from its high is not a dream; for every $10 price drop, the U.S. CPI can drop by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points. Once inflationary pressure eases, the Fed's room for rate cuts opens up, and market bets on a 50 basis point rate cut in September are heating up. This wave is an open positive signal for the crypto community. Bitcoin now holds pricing power in the hands of macro liquidity; as U.S. Treasury real yields fall, the valuation ceiling for risk assets is rising. $BTC is currently at $64,998, up 1.1% in the past 24 hours. If this level confirms a second fermentation of rate cut expectations, it would only be a matter of time before it surpasses 70,000. More importantly, once the geo-hedging logic fades, speculative funds in gold will overflow, and some will inevitably be reallocated to digital gold. The logic on the US side is similar: the Nasdaq and AI tech stocks will benefit first from this wave of valuation easing. Major oil-consuming sectors like aviation, logistics, and chemicals are the most elastic, but the energy sector must be avoided. Oil stocks are a headwind in the downward trend of oil prices. Be wary of emotional sell-offs on the day the news is released, since some expectations are already factored into short-term gains, but the medium-term trend will not change direction just because of a single day's volatility. $BTC $ETH The core driving force of this round is a shift in liquidity expectations—hold on and don't let go. #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #财报观察员【Crypto Script】
#Nonfarm unexpectedly turns negative, CPI becomes key to rate hikes
I am Script Bro. After last night's nonfarm data release, I was live streaming. Many friends in the live room immediately asked me one question: Is this data bullish or bearish for the crypto space? Will BTC surge directly?
At that time, I told everyone in the live room that this nonfarm data is a mild positive for the crypto space and BTC, but it’s not the kind of super bullish data that would trigger an immediate BTC rally. However, the signal it sends is somewhat positive for market sentiment, and in the medium term, I remain bullish.
Many newcomers think that if nonfarm data is weak, BTC must rise, but it’s not that simple. If employment cools down but the economy does not show clear recession signs, the market interprets this as a "soft landing." This environment is comfortable for BTC and US tech stocks because funding costs may decrease in the future, liquidity expectations improve, and risk appetite gradually returns.
But if the employment data is so poor that the market worries the US economy is entering a recession, then funds might not buy BTC first but instead choose safe-haven assets like gold and cash.
So during last night's live, I kept emphasizing that this nonfarm data is mildly bullish for BTC, with a positive bias, but don’t blindly chase the rally just because of one data point. What really matters is how funds choose to allocate next.
Back to last night’s market: after the nonfarm release, BTC did not surge immediately but digested the news. The price dipped to around 64111, then quickly rebounded, indicating strong support below.
In the live room last night, I used this logic to guide everyone to go long on BTC after the dip.
When BTC reached around 64800, I led everyone to add positions, keeping the average price around 64938-64500. The market moved as expected; after the price rose to about 65200, I chose to reduce half the position to lock in profits, keeping the remaining base position to observe. Currently, the base position price is around 64900, and the overall rhythm is proceeding as planned.
Actually, there was another interesting point last night: many friends kept asking about SanDisk (SNDK). Recently, market funds have indeed been speculating around AI storage and US chip stocks. SanDisk performed very strongly earlier, and many think this hot sector offers bigger opportunities. But last night, I did not choose to chase SanDisk; I firmly chose BTC.
Why? Because trading is not about going where it’s hottest. The more attention a place gets, the more intense the short-term battles. Last night, SanDisk experienced large intraday volatility, dropping over 100 points at one time, nearly 10%. If you chase at a high level without proper position sizing and stop-loss, a correction can easily wipe out profits or even principal. That’s how the market works: the hottest spots aren’t necessarily the most comfortable trading opportunities.
As for BTC, 65000 USD remains the most critical short-term level. BTC has tested around 65000 multiple times without a valid breakout, indicating clear resistance here. If US stocks perform steadily, tech stock risk appetite continues to improve, and BTC can break above 65000 with volume, the market may extend toward 66000 or even higher. But if it meets resistance again near 65000, short-term pullback risks should be noted, with key support around 64000.
So I think last night’s nonfarm didn’t just bring a simple bullish signal but opened a new expectation space. Rising expectations for rate cuts help the crypto space’s long-term logic, but short-term trends won’t change just because of one data point. What really determines BTC’s next move are fund flows, US stock performance, and subsequent inflation data.
Last night’s trading also reaffirmed a truth: don’t rush into the hottest sector. The best opportunities often appear after market pullbacks and sentiment releases.
When nonfarm data came out, I chose to trade BTC rather than chase SanDisk at highs. Essentially, this is sticking to my trading system. Also, last night was definitely BTC’s main stage, while SanDisk ignored the nonfarm bullishness and plunged sharply.
Next, keep watching the key 65000 level. If it breaks, market sentiment may further recover; if not, patiently wait for a more comfortable entry point. $BTC $ETH $BICO Bitcoin isn’t weak right now — it’s trapped. And the next move could come fast. 👀
Small NFP or big NFP, the result is the same: gold has already started showing signs of a small bull market, while Bitcoin is barely moving.
So what’s holding BTC back?
The Coinbase Premium Index is negative, suggesting U.S. institutions are selling while Asian buyers are stepping in. The two sides are basically canceling each other out.
Even though ETF inflows continue, a large portion of that money appears to be coming from arbitrage strategies rather than aggressive directional buyers. In other words, money is entering, but it isn't necessarily creating real buying pressure.
Then there’s the Fed.
The market is still waiting for clearer signals on rates, while policymakers remain divided. Until that uncertainty clears, Bitcoin may continue to chop rather than choose a direction.
Right now, the levels are simple:
🔥 $65,000–$65,500 = the key breakout zone.
If BTC can reclaim and hold above $65K, the bullish momentum could accelerate.
🛡️ $63,800–$63,200 = major support.
As long as this zone holds, bears may struggle to gain real control.
So for now, Bitcoin is stuck between institutional selling, Asian buying, ETF flows, and Fed uncertainty.
$65K is the line in the sand. Above it, bulls regain momentum. Below $63.2K, the picture changes quickly.
Until one side wins, expect volatility — not direction. 📊
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound A massive volume of unlocked shares weighs on the order book, yet the price keeps surging, breaking through the buyers' defense line. At the largest restricted stock release point, $SPCX closed at $133.11, completely overturning the short sellers' expectations.
It has risen 23% cumulatively over two days with a single-day surge of 16%, pushing the market cap above $1.75 trillion. The unlocking of 910 million shares, worth over $100 billion, did not trigger sell-offs; trading volume was quickly absorbed by buyers during the rally.
Insider holdings showed no reduction after unlocking, and the highly constrained shares are interpreted by the market as a long-term bullish signal. Meanwhile, news of self-built power facilities supporting a semiconductor factory collaboration with Tesla in Texas has expanded the market's valuation scope for its computing infrastructure.
The insiders' lock-up behavior combined with expectations of cross-sector power generation and chip manufacturing have together transformed the original distribution concerns into a short squeeze-driven buyback.
If the construction progress of the Texas semiconductor factory and its supporting power supply continues as planned, capital will likely factor the computing power premium into the stock price, driving the market cap to further growth; however, if trading volume fails to sustain the breakout highs, the momentum from the short squeeze will quickly weaken.
If high-level profit-taking after the unlocking pressure is digested leads to concentrated distribution, and capital expenditure pressures from cross-sector computing power squeeze cash flow, the stock price may retest previous breakout points; once support is broken accompanied by insider share reductions, the bullish logic will directly fail.
The current strong market performance is built on extremely high valuation tolerance; any signals of chip manufacturing progress falling short of expectations could immediately invalidate this rally driven by cross-sector expectations.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether major internal shareholders will report substantial share reductions after the unlocking.
#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展，油价风险降温了吗？ #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键NEAR: Fundamental Validation Period After the AI Narrative Fades
NEAR has fallen back to $1.59, with a 24-hour decline of 4.03%, leading the drop among major public chains. The combination of a $2.08 billion market cap and $4.03 million daily trading volume exposes a liquidity vacuum following the cooling of the AI+Web3 narrative. The price broke below the $1.6 psychological level, hitting a daily low of $1.58, with the short-term moving averages flattening and trending downward technically.
Market data shows that although NEAR's decline is not severe, the shrinking trading volume is more concerning—selling pressure is light, but buying support is even weaker. Social sentiment is absent across all dimensions (zero heat, zero differentiation), confirming that the market's marginal attention to the "AI public chain" label has dropped to zero. Current pricing has fully returned to the L1 fundamental competitive dimension. Smart money maintains a net short position with zero actual holdings, revealing that professional funds are executing a disciplined strategy of "no heavy positions before narrative realization," waiting for signals such as an increase in on-chain active addresses, improvement in AI application deployment data, or substantial ecological fund deployment.
Core judgment: NEAR is undergoing a painful transition from narrative premium to fundamental pricing. The short-term downside risk outweighs upside opportunities, and it is necessary to wait for confirmation of an on-chain data inflection point before restarting the upward logic. #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展，油价风险降温了吗？
I've been closely watching developments around the Strait of Hormuz recently. Seeing news of progress in the negotiations, my first reaction was whether the geopolitical risk is finally easing.
According to reports, Iran and Oman have made a new breakthrough in talks about navigation through the strait. The U.S. side says the negotiations have progressed, and an agreement is expected soon to restore unhindered commercial shipping for merchant vessels. If the agreement is finalized, the U.S. will lift the blockade on Iranian ports, but this depends on Iran's actual compliance going forward.
The market has already responded in advance: this week, U.S. crude closed down 1.32% at $76.35, and Brent crude fell 1.54% to $81.50. At the same time, data from ICE and CFTC show that speculative net long positions in Brent and WTI are also declining, with many funds actively withdrawing from crude long positions.
However, I think it's still too early to be optimistic. The agreement has not been officially announced yet. Iran has also stated that it has not made concessions in the memorandum negotiations. Even if a paper agreement is reached, there are still many practical challenges ahead: navigation rules, sanctions constraints, shipping insurance—each of these could hinder the implementation of the agreement.
The real key point going forward is not the verbal progress in negotiations, but whether the agreement can be formally signed and whether merchant vessels can truly resume stable passage.
If the execution phase is blocked by sanctions, insurance, or navigation rules, the geopolitical risk premium will be factored back into oil prices, and crude could easily rebound again.
The biggest pitfall in geopolitical markets is "expectations fully priced in but delivery falls short." At this stage, I will remain cautious and not hastily conclude that the crisis is completely resolved. I will continue to observe the actual implementation going forward. #黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？
When spot gold firmly stood above $4339/oz this week and COMEX gold futures even touched the $4400 mark, the market no longer describes this rally simply as a "breakthrough." A weekly gain exceeding 7% declares that gold is undergoing a dramatic repricing.
Some attribute this to the unexpected weakness in U.S. July nonfarm payrolls, which has heightened expectations for a rate cut in September, easing some pressure on the dollar and real interest rates. But focusing solely on the rate cut game risks missing a bigger narrative—capital is shifting from "chasing risk" to "securing safe assets."
Three signs indicate this is not a simple rebound:
1. A qualitative change in position structure: As of the week ending August 4, COMEX gold speculators' net long positions increased to 132,398 contracts. Institutional funds are systematically replenishing precious metals positions rather than engaging in short-term speculation.
2. Dual binding of geopolitics and inflation: Energy inflation remains sticky, geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing, and central banks continue purchasing gold. These fundamental supports have lifted gold beyond a pure real interest rate framework.
3. Market sentiment shift: As volatility in stocks and other risk assets increases, gold is being reconsidered as the "ultimate settlement asset"—especially after the "rate cut" has been fully priced in, the safe-haven logic may take over.
The current accelerated rally appears on the surface to be catalyzed by macro data, but at a deeper level, it looks more like the beginning of global liquidity seeking a new anchor. Whether gold is starting a new super cycle remains to be seen, but the shift in capital allocation logic cannot be ignored.
However, the more euphoric the sentiment, the more attention must be paid to the rhythm: short-term overbought signals have already appeared, so chasing highs requires caution; but if the view is extended to the second half of this year and even next year, gold's value as a hedge for tail risks in portfolios is gaining recognition from more and more capital.
This rally is fueled both by the "rate cut trade" and the underlying "safe-haven reconstruction." It is not an either-or scenario but a simultaneous outbreak of dual logics.After the release of this non-farm payroll policy, my judgment for August has become even clearer: this month is unlikely to be quiet. The U.S. July nonfarm payroll market had originally expected an increase of about 80,000, but it directly turned into a decrease of 23,000. Even worse, the data for May and June was revised down by a combined 103,000 people. Although the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, the labor force participation rate also dropped to 61.4%, and wage growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year. To put it plainly: American jobs aren't just hitting the brakes—it's the engine starting to cough. The market reaction was also direct: US Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from about 55% to around 40%. This combination has always been one of BTC's favorites. But strangely, Bitcoin hasn't gone crazy yet. Currently, BTC is about $64,900, ETH about $1,625, SOL is about $78, and DOGE is about $0.07. Despite such poor employment data, BTC did not directly reach $70,000. On the contrary, I think this is the most noteworthy aspect of this market rally. Because this shows that the non-farm payrolls have just passed the match, and the real decision on where to ignite the fire is next week's CPI. July CPI will be released on August 12, followed by PPI on August 13; The minutes of the July FOMC meeting will be released on August 19. At the end of the month, there will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting from August 27 to 29. Even more coincidentally, this year's Jackson Hole theme is exactly thatHere’s a painful truth that experienced traders will probably understand.
This cycle, U.S. stocks have had one powerful narrative after another — AI, SpaceX, optical communications, and other emerging themes — continuously attracting fresh capital.
Gold has its own strong stories too: de-dollarization and safe-haven demand.
But what about crypto?
Think about it — what genuinely new and exciting narrative has emerged recently that can bring significant fresh money into the market?
The ETF narrative has largely been priced in. Layer-2 expectations have cooled, while meme-coin rotations often feel more like a zero-sum game than genuine capital expansion.
That doesn’t mean crypto can’t move higher.
It simply means the market may be waiting for the next major story capable of attracting new capital from outside the existing crypto ecosystem.
$BTC could remain stuck in this range until that narrative appears.
So instead of obsessing over the next price target, I’m watching one thing:
Who will be the first to create and convincingly sell the next big crypto narrative?
What do you think it will be? 👀
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound A little-known fact: Pump fun's DEX is also the largest DEX on Solana
This means that the Pump Fun protocol is both the largest Launchpad and the largest DEX on Solana, occupying the leading position in two tracks with one project
Currently, this situation does not exist on the mainstream chains in the market
Moreover, the largest source of fees for Pump fun actually comes from PumpSwap, not the LaunchPad part of the business
In the chart in Figure 2, you can actually divide them into three parts to look at its main revenue structure
This is the chart data I have organized; if you look at the original Defillama data, it would be even more chaotic:
(1) Bonding Curve fee scale = 62.06 million + 10.86 million + 5.22 million, totaling about 78.14 million USD
This is the main business for which Pump fun is known in the market, responsible for the token lifecycle's launch phase
From the protocol capture perspective, this stage is still currently Pump Fun's largest source of cash
(2) Pump swap fee scale = 23.40 million + 25.64 million + 74.87 million, totaling about 124 million USD
This is the part of the data most easily overlooked by the market because the past market perception of Pump Fun was mostly limited to "a platform that issues Memes"
But in fact, after a Meme or token completes the Bonding Curve phase on Pump fun, it enters PumpSwap for continued trading
This stage corresponds to the second phase of the token lifecycle
(3) Other business = 9.05 million + 1.06 million, totaling about 10.11 million USD
This part is currently small in scale, totaling only about ten million, belonging to ancillary tools, so I won't elaborate here
_____________________________________
There is another point in Figure 2 that needs to be expanded:
In Defillama's original statistical scope, the total revenue created by a protocol is fully included in the revenue items
So there are some repeated items in the cost section, which can easily cause confusion, so you have to look at the profit part, which is the money the protocol actually keeps. I did not expand on the details in the original chart
Of the approximately 212 million USD in fees in Q2, Pump fun ultimately retained about 91.55 million USD in gross profit, corresponding to about a 43% gross margin
➠ PumpSwap's profit ultimately captured by the protocol was 23.40 million USD, while Bonding Curve retained 62.06 million USD
For these two business segments, the fee scale is larger for the former than the latter, but the value ultimately captured by the protocol is significantly higher for the latter
Comparing the change curves of these two business segments over the past few quarters (Figure 3), Bonding Curve clearly depends on market sentiment and has a strong positive correlation with Solana's on-chain activity. Looking at the detailed data change points, this part is very sensitive
In contrast, PumpSwap's growth curve is smoother, which further indicates that Pump Fun's revenue structure has changed
➠ In the past, the platform mainly captured value during the token issuance phase, but now the trading phase is becoming a new income supplement
The issuance phase has higher protocol capture capability, thus contributing higher profit margins
Swap business requires distributing more value to liquidity providers and creators, reducing protocol profit margins, but it covers the longer-term trading demand after token issuance
Finally, a brief mention: from the daily K-line chart, $PUMP is in a pullback phase within an uptrend, and the current price around 0.0022 has not yet reached a support level
That is all~#Nonfarm unexpectedly turns negative, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes After the July nonfarm data was released, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy changed significantly.
Previously, many were still worried:
"Inflation isn't over yet, will the Fed continue to stay hawkish?"
Even two weeks ago, market expectations for a policy shift in September were very low.
But after the employment data came out, the market began to reprice:
📉 Rate hike expectations declined
📈 Rate cut expectations increased
The market may be experiencing a kind of "inflation phobia."
Many investors are still thinking in terms of the past high inflation period.
Seeing any economic data, they worry:
"Will inflation rise again?"
"Is the Fed going hawkish again?"
But the current environment may have changed.
Employment is cooling down, inflation is gradually falling, and the Fed's pressure is changing.
Market expectations are very clear, last night $BTC and $ETH surged significantly again Gold is heading for one of its biggest weekly gains in 40 years, with $GLD tracking an 8% move as weak jobs data cut Fed hike odds. But history is mixed. After prior 8%+ weeks, gold was usually weaker 3 and 6 months later.#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound 🤗 Extra: The new US bill (CLARITY) says the president can't trade crypto personally while in office; it must be isolated.
Trump says he will put his cryptocurrency into a blind trust, managed by his kids, not him.
Let's translate what this old man means.
His family runs a crypto company called $WLFI, issued $WLFI tokens, $$TRUMP Meme tokens, and also created the stablecoin $USD1. The Trump family holds 75% of the shares in these tokens and platforms. But the new US bill CLARITY says: the president can't trade crypto personally; it must be isolated.
Trump played a trick and said okay, I'll comply with the law, put the tokens into a blind trust, which means appointing a trustee. I won't oversee daily trading; the kids (his three sons) will continue managing it. When he leaves office on January 20, 2029, the restrictions automatically lift, and then they can do as they please.
Does this matter to the $BTC and $ETH we care most about? Absolutely.
Don't be fooled by his words saying he doesn't care about those assets; $BTC and $ETH are tightly linked to his family on both ends.
The first end is the White House: In March 2025, he signed a strategic Bitcoin reserve, locking 200,000 seized $BTC into the Treasury without selling. This isn't his personal stash; it's national policy. But who signed it? Him. In future market discussions about whether $BTC has national credit backing, this chapter must mention Trump.
The second end is the family platform: $WLFI's treasury has real $BTC and $ETH as base holdings. The $USD1 stablecoin was first issued on the $ETH chain, later expanding to $BNB and $Solana. Trump himself may not hold $BTC in his wallet, but his family's 75% stake indirectly rides on $BTC/$ETH price movements—the money managed by his kids is mainly these two.
So: blind trust + kids managing translates to
The president's name is removed, but 200,000 $BTC are locked by the White House, $ETH powers his family platform, and the money still belongs to the Trump family.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound Ahhhhh! 😂🤡😂🤡 $ETH is approaching $2000, but why am I more focused on ETH/BTC rather than the round number level?
On August 7th, ETH market discussions clearly centered on the $2000 level, with the price steadily approaching this psychological mark.
However, if you only watch ETH/USD, it's easy to overlook the real variable that determines the strength of altcoin trends: whether ETH has actually strengthened relative to BTC.
The logic is simple. If ETH rises 10% but BTC rises 12% in the same period, ETH looks like it’s up, but capital is still more inclined toward BTC; only if ETH/BTC continues to strengthen can it indicate that risk appetite is starting to shift from BTC to higher Beta assets.
Fundamentally, in Q1 2026, Ethereum’s new addresses grew 82% quarter-over-quarter to about 284,000, with total transaction volume reaching 200.4 million; stablecoin supply on Ethereum reached about $180 billion, while exchange ETH reserves dropped to about 16 million.
These data are moderately positive for mid-term supply and demand, but short-term price confirmation is still needed.
My observation sequence is: can ETH hold above 2000 → does ETH/BTC strengthen simultaneously → do major altcoins like SOL start to follow. If only ETH briefly breaks 2000 but ETH/BTC does not improve, I won’t easily define it as the start of an “alt season.”
Risk reminder: fundamental improvements and short-term price increases are not the same thing. If there is a volume spike near $2000 followed by a pullback, beware of a false breakout. #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 BICO (Biconomy) has recently experienced a strong rebound, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 55%, attracting significant market attention. Combining open interest data, funding rates, and sector fundamentals, this surge is not simply driven by spot market bullishness but is a highly representative **"high control + extreme short squeeze"** scenario.
🔥 Core reasons behind the surge
Extreme negative funding rate and major short squeeze: Currently, the funding rate has dropped to an extreme of -3%. A negative funding rate means shorts must pay high interest to longs. The main players exploit this rule by establishing long positions in the futures market, collecting huge funding fees from shorts while pushing up spot prices to force shorts to close positions, creating a chain reaction of "short liquidations/covering buys → further price increase".
Retail frenzy in shorting, highly concentrated chips: The ratio of short accounts is as high as 73.39%, with the long-short ratio dropping to an extremely low 0.36. Retail traders generally believe the short-term rise is excessive and choose to short at the top, inadvertently becoming "fuel" for the main players to push the price up.
Chain abstraction (AA) sector sentiment recovery: As one of the leaders in Account Abstraction and off-chain infrastructure, BICO’s valuation was low after a prior oversell. With liquidity warming up, the main players chose to push up BICO, which had relatively clean chips.
📊 Market indicator analysis
Open Interest (OI) and volume: Volume (24h reaching 530 million USDT) and open interest surged simultaneously, indicating intense capital competition inside the market, and the main players have not yet distributed their chips.
Overheated technical indicators: The 4-hour RSI has surpassed 96, and the MACD histogram has extended significantly, showing a severe short-term overbought condition, with the risk of sharp volatility at any time.
🔮 Future trend forecast and trading advice
Short term (end of short squeeze): While the negative funding rate persists and shorts are not fully liquidated, prices may still spike upward due to momentum. However, as funding rates gradually normalize, the short squeeze momentum will quickly fade.
Mid term (value reversion): Without sustained fundamental bullish support, short squeeze rallies usually form an "inverted V" pattern. Once open interest drops significantly and funding rates turn positive, a rapid and deep correction is highly likely.
Practical risk warnings:
Avoid blindly shorting at the top: With a -3% funding rate, holding costs are extremely high, and there is a risk of violent spikes causing forced liquidations by the main players.
Longs should avoid chasing highs: Chasing in an overbought market easily leads to becoming the bag holder. It is recommended to wait and observe or wait for sentiment to calm and funding rates to converge before making strategic entries. $BICO capital is rushing in aggressively, waiting for a pullback to go long
Large amounts of capital are flooding in, BICO surged violently over 50% in a short time, and trading volume has multiplied.
However, after continuous sharp rises, it has entered an overbought state, with heavy selling pressure above. The main force shows signs of pumping up the price to unload, coupled with macro regulatory bearish pressure, chasing high directly carries huge risks.
Xi Jie’s trading idea: go long at the current price, target 0.060-0.063
【The above analysis is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice!】
#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移 #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展，油价风险降温了吗？ #SpaceXUnlockRebound $XSPCX $XSNDK
Given the impending unlock of a large volume of shares, many anticipated that $SPCX would face significant selling pressure.
However, the market reacted quite differently:
🚀 SpaceX shares rose by over 6% immediately following the first day of the unlock, indicating that demand absorbed the bulk of the initial supply. That said, this was merely the first test, with more unlock events still to come.
Investors should now focus not only on the volume of unlocked shares but also on:
📈 Starlink’s growth
🤖 The potential for AI to generate profits that offset massive infrastructure expenditures
💰 Whether cash flow is robust enough to absorb subsequent unlock rounds.
An unlock does not equate to a sell-off. Ultimately, market confidence in long-term growth remains the most critical factor. 🚀#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound In the just-passed August, BICOUSDT perpetual contracts topped the exchange gainers chart with an astonishing monthly increase of **379.01%**, becoming the market's most dazzling "wealth creation myth." However, behind this surge is not a fundamental reversal in project fundamentals, but rather a typical short squeeze drama jointly orchestrated by **extreme market structure** and **frenzied speculation**. 1. The Trigger: A Precise Hunt Targeting the "Overconfident" The trigger for this rally did not come from any exciting project announcements, but from an internal bullish and bearish tug-of-war in the futures market. On the eve of the surge, BICO's contract market had quietly accumulated massive short positions. One of the most critical signals is that its **funding rate has been deeply negative for a long time**. This means that shorting is not only unprofitable but also requires ongoing high holding costs—this is ironclad evidence of extreme crowding in short positions and extremely pessimistic market sentiment. It is precisely this "extreme pessimism" that provides an excellent hunting environment for bulls. As a small-cap token, BICO's perpetual contract market liquidity is relatively thin. When a small amount of buying begins to appear and drives prices up moderately, a chain reaction is immediately triggered: a slight price increase → a large number of short positions start to incur losses → shorts are forced to close out (covering) → covering behavior further pushes prices higher → triggering more short liquidations or panic covering. This cycle of "bears stepping on shorts" quickly evolved into a brutal "short squeeze" ($SOL The real change is not how much it has risen, but that Wall Street is starting to treat it as infrastructure
Recently, SOL's price performance hasn't been particularly exaggerated, but I believe the fundamentals are undergoing a change more important than short-term price fluctuations:
Solana is gradually transforming from "the fastest MEME coin to hype" into a blockchain that traditional finance is genuinely willing to use.
At the end of July, Morgan Stanley officially launched the Solana Trust (MSOL), listed on NYSE Arca. More importantly, this is not a product issued by an ordinary crypto company, but a major traditional US financial institution packaging SOL into a financial product aimed at traditional investors.
The significance behind this is actually greater than a 5% daily increase.
In the past, the path for institutions entering the crypto market was basically:
BTC → ETH → other assets.
Now SOL is becoming the third mainstream crypto asset to truly enter the traditional financial system.
What’s even more worth watching is payments
Recently, South Korean payment company KSNET signed a cooperation agreement with the Solana Foundation to prepare for testing Solana Pay and AI payment systems.
KSNET connects over 330,000 merchants and processes tens of billions of dollars in payments every month.
Of course, this is currently just a PoC test and cannot be directly interpreted as all 330,000 merchants immediately using SOL, but it at least indicates one thing:
Solana is starting to enter the technical selection scope of real payment companies, not just playing within the crypto community.
This might be Solana’s biggest long-term potential.
Because the truly large-scale on-chain use in the future may not be MEME or NFT, but rather:
Stablecoin payments, RWA, securities trading, AI Agent automated payments.
These things value speed, cost, and throughput the most.
Solana is also expanding in advance
The Solana mainnet recently increased the computing capacity per block from 60 million CU to 100 million CU, which is roughly a 66% increase in block capacity.
This may seem technical, but the logic is simple:
If on-chain payments, RWA, and financial transactions really explode in the future, Solana is preemptively widening the "highway".
So looking at SOL now, I think it can no longer be understood simply as a "meme coin market."
Previously, when SOL rose, the market traded on MEME hype, on-chain gambling, and retail sentiment.
If it continues to rise in the future, the market might trade on a different logic:
ETFs bringing institutional funds, stablecoins bringing payments, RWA bringing assets, network upgrades bringing capacity.
This is where SOL truly deserves attention.
BTC is becoming digital gold, ETH aims to be the global settlement layer, and SOL might be taking a more direct path:
To become the Nasdaq + Visa on-chain.
Whether this path will ultimately succeed is still unknown, but if stablecoin payments and RWA on Solana continue to grow, then SOL’s valuation logic will gradually shift from a "high Beta meme coin" to a "financial infrastructure asset."
I think this is the biggest expectation gap for SOL in the next phase. 😏 Let's talk about a familiar vibe in the market — look at SNDK (SanDisk) right now, doesn't its movement resemble AAOI's wave back in June?
Back then, AAOI was hammered down from a high, dropping to around $73 by late June to mid-July, with the screen full of ghost stories like "Optical module fringe players" and "Jingji Xuchuang substitute joke." What happened next? Around July 28, it bottomed out and then surged to 143 in about six trading days, doubling. At that point, the narrative in the circle suddenly changed, with hype articles like "AAOI to replace Jingji Xuchuang" and "The fourth 1.6T qualified supplier makes a comeback" popping up everywhere.
😅 To put it simply, that was a classic internal rotation and oversold rebound within the storage/optical communication sector, not a fundamental change. I even bought AAOI myself; after buying, I was happy — the company was still losing money quarterly, with gross margins much lower than Xuchuang, purely a sentiment play, but the low price and light float meant capital could easily double it with a turn.
🧐 Back to SNDK. After spinning off from Western Digital, SanDisk rode the "AI data center NAND super cycle" narrative, once surging to a historic high of 2354 in the first half of the year, becoming the S&P 500's top gainer for a period. But since July, it has retraced from the high to around 1100 (closing at 1212 on August 7), with profit-taking at the top even more intense than AAOI's wave. The current market sentiment is exactly the same: on one side, optimists say "NAND supply-demand gap until 2028," "Meta's multi-year big orders," and "Goldman Sachs target price of 2200"; on the other side, the ghost stories say "storage cycle peak," "Western Digital's clearance stock swap," and "AI capital expenditure turning point."
⚠️ But here's how to look at it: AAOI's doubling was premised on the sector not dying + the stock being oversold + rotation funds finding a low entry point. SNDK now meets two of these three — the AI storage main theme is intact (Micron, Kioxia, Western Digital are all in the cycle), and the price has retraced over 40% from the peak; what's missing is "rotation funds willing to come back and claim it."
🚀 So I think SNDK's current position is very similar to AAOI at $73 back then: it's not telling you to blindly go all in, but don't cut losses when the ghost stories are at their worst. Wait for the day NAND prices jump again or a hyperscaler signs a supply agreement, and the narrative will instantly switch from "cycle peak" back to "AI storage scarce asset," with rebound potential no worse than AAOI's.
💡 Of course, a reminder: SNDK is not a small-cap junk stock like AAOI; it's a pure NAND play with a $170 billion market cap, with scary absolute volatility, so don't recklessly leverage. But the "high-level pullback + sector rotation + narrative repairable" pattern really looks quite similar. $SNDK The jobs report moved September pricing. CPI may decide it.
U.S. payrolls fell 23K in July versus expectations for ~85K growth, marking the first negative month since February. May and June were revised down by a combined 103K:
· May: 129K to 63K
· June: 57K to 20K
The slowdown is broader than one month. Payroll growth averaged 34K over the past year, while average hourly earnings were nearly flat in July and wage growth cooled to 3.2% YoY.
But the 4.1% unemployment rate does not tell a straightforward story. The labor force shrank by 264K, pushing participation down to 61.4%, its lowest level in more than five years.
The headline payroll decline also included a 50K drop in local government education, a category vulnerable to seasonal distortions. Still, weakness extended to retail and financial activities, while health care added only 22K jobs, below its recent average.
Following the jobs report on Aug 7, CME FedWatch assigned roughly a 44% probability to a 25 bp September hike, while Kalshi showed around 64% odds of no change as of Aug 8.
Those figures come from different markets and methodologies, but both point to the same conclusion: September is still open.
Now the focus shifts to July CPI on Aug 12. Consensus expects headline inflation to ease slightly to around 3.4% YoY from 3.5%.
But headline CPI is only part of the story. June core CPI was lower at 2.6%, so the real test is whether energy pressure begins spreading into underlying goods, housing and services.
For crypto, weaker employment and wage growth can reduce pressure for tighter policy and pull Treasury yields lower. But if softer hiring develops into a deeper growth slowdown, the liquidity-positive interpretation becomes less straightforward.
A hotter CPI, especially at the core level, could quickly revive hike pricing. A softer print would strengthen the case for holding rates steady and shift attention toward whether labor-market cooling continues.
Will CPI confirm the post-payroll move toward no change, or put a September hike firmly back on the table?
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus To be honest, why am I so bearish on ETH? Let's skip the fluff and get straight to the point. 😮💨
First, look at the price: it's hovering around $1900 now, but this time last year it was heading towards $5000. It’s been chopped down hard, almost to the bone, but do you think this is the bottom? I’m skeptical.
Why? Let me break down these painful truths:
1. The fairy tale of "the more you burn, the less there is" is over 📉
ETH’s most impressive story used to be "deflation"—burning more coins than are produced, making it scarce and valuable. But now? The L2 guys are slashing fees to compete, making them thinner than paper. Now, only a fraction of an ETH is burned weekly, not even enough to cover staking rewards. Supply is actually increasing by nearly 1% annually. This isn’t deflation; it’s sneaky inflation.
2. Compared to BTC, ETH is just a "sidekick" 🐶
Look at the ETH/BTC ratio—it’s at multi-year lows. Translated: when it comes to buying crypto, big money is all running to BTC, no one’s giving ETH a second glance. The second place seat is about to collapse under its own weight.
3. Smart money is "running" 🏃♂️
ETF data shows net outflows. Think about it: US Treasuries offer a risk-free 5% yield now, which is very attractive. ETH staking yields 2.6%, but with the risk of total loss. If you were an institution, wouldn’t you run? It’s obvious.
4. The candlestick chart looks like a cold 🤒
The $2000 resistance has been tested twice and failed—this is a "double top," a classic no-go signal. Now it’s just drifting downhill. Once it breaks the support, $1600 or $1500 could happen in one breath. When leveraged traders get liquidated, the stampede will be unimaginable.
5. The pool’s liquidity is drying up 💧
Stablecoins like USDC are flowing out, meaning there’s less ammo in the market. Without new money coming in, relying on existing holders fighting each other, how can this ship stay afloat?
In summary:
I’m not saying ETH will go to zero, but given the current situation, I can’t find any reason for a big rally. The story is worn out + big investors are pulling out + the chart looks bad—these three heavy mountains are pressing down. For me, shorting at a high is way more reassuring than blindly bottom-fishing.
⚠️ Just rambling here: purely casual talk, not investment advice. Contracts are very technical; newbies should avoid high leverage, or you might lose even your underwear. $BTC $ETH Michael Burry has established short positions in Oracle and Nebius, with the core conflict centered on differences in the amortization cycles of AI cloud computing assets and off-balance-sheet leverage risks. Market risk appetite is shifting from heightened sentiment toward excessive asset quality estimation.
The current short positions are anchored at costs of $144.63 for Oracle and $211.77 for Nebius, combined with bearish bets on SOXX and semiconductor giants, forming a concentrated tail risk pricing targeting the AI supply chain.
In the ranking of driving factors, the contraction of risk appetite takes the top spot, followed by the actual pressure of capital expenditures on the balance sheet. The entire industry anticipates a $176 billion profit revaluation space, directly eroding the fault tolerance of high-valuation sectors.
The bullish scenario is based on a sustained explosion in real demand for computing power. If cloud providers' revenue growth significantly outpaces amortization cost growth, strong cash flow will fully absorb depreciation pressure, driving up stock prices and forcing short positions to cover.
The trigger for this scenario is Oracle and Nebius stock prices breaking above the key cost levels of $144.63 and $211.77, respectively. The invalidation signal is a reduction in AI capital expenditure budgets by core clients.
The bearish scenario is driven by credit risk and tightening liquidity. When $260 billion in off-balance-sheet lease commitments prompt the market to reprice off-balance-sheet debt, premature scrapping of computing assets will trigger dual downward revisions in valuation and earnings forecasts.
The trigger for this scenario is the semiconductor sector breaking key support levels accompanied by a rise in implied volatility of options. The invalidation signal is major industry buyers continuously announcing capital expenditure plans exceeding expectations.
The most important variables to watch over the next 7 days are changes in the semiconductor sector's options implied volatility and whether the tech debt credit spread widens unexpectedly due to discussions around off-balance-sheet liabilities.
#CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移 #白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
After reviewing the US nonfarm payroll data last night, I was a bit surprised that July's nonfarm employment actually decreased by 23,000, which is a huge gap from the market expectation of an increase of 80,000.
Moreover, the employment data for May and June were also revised downward, with a total reduction of 103,000. It is clear that the labor market is cooling faster than everyone expected. Interestingly, the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%, mainly due to a decline in labor force participation, so the job market is not simply weakening unilaterally; the situation is more complex.
Once the data was released, the market immediately repriced the Fed's September rate hike:
CME shows the probability of a 25bp hike in September dropped to 44%, and Kalshi's data shows the probability of keeping rates unchanged rose to 65%.
⚠️ But we cannot conclude that rate hikes are over just yet. Many Fed officials and institutions still see sticky inflation as the biggest risk. If next week's CPI data strengthens again, rate hike expectations will immediately resurge.
Looking at the crypto market, the trading logic has shifted. Previously, the game was whether employment could outpace inflation; now, after the nonfarm surprise, the question is whether CPI can rewrite the monetary policy expectations for September.
The market is now hanging in the balance; the real test is still ahead. Do you think CPI will deliver a shock to the market or continue to support a liquidity-driven rally? #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
Last night’s release of the U.S. July nonfarm payroll data triggered a new round of global capital market competition. The data showed an unexpected decrease of 23,000 in July nonfarm employment, a huge gap compared to the market expectation of an increase of 80,000. Not only did the current data fall short of expectations, but the employment data for May and June were also revised downward by a total of 103,000. Multiple signals combined prove that the cooling speed of the U.S. labor market far exceeds previous market estimates.
However, the market cannot simply interpret this as a comprehensive weakening of employment. A notable contradiction is that the U.S. unemployment rate rose instead of falling, retreating to 4.1%. The core reason behind this is the decline in labor force participation rate, with a large number of people exiting the labor market. This also means the labor market cannot be simply characterized as unilaterally weakening; there is a clear internal structural divergence.
After the data release, the market quickly repriced the Federal Reserve’s September monetary policy. CME interest rate tools show the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September fell to 44%; Kalshi market data shows the probability of maintaining the current rate in September rose to 65%. The market rapidly lowered rate hike expectations in the short term, giving risk assets a brief respite.
However, the divergence between bulls and bears has not disappeared. Currently, Federal Reserve officials and many mainstream institutions continue to repeatedly warn about the risk of sticky inflation. Employment data is only one side of policy considerations; inflation remains the Fed’s core anchor. The market consensus now is that the upcoming CPI data next week will be the decisive factor influencing September rate hike expectations. If CPI rebounds strongly again, the rate hike expectations suppressed by the nonfarm data could quickly return.
Applied to the trading logic of the crypto market, the main theme has clearly shifted. Previously, the market was debating whether "weak employment could suppress inflation pressure." After the nonfarm surprise, the entire trading theme has shifted to: employment cooling is a fact, and the focus now is on whether CPI will strengthen again to rewrite the Fed’s September policy expectations.
Short-term market volatility will continue to be driven by news, with funds preemptively trading on CPI results. Before the release of the critical inflation data, the market will most likely remain in a consolidation pattern, with neither bulls nor bears willing to make large directional bets easily. All traders need to be clear: nonfarm is just the prelude; the real mid-term market test will be the upcoming CPI.#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
First, the employment data was "watered down."
Last month in the U.S., jobs didn't increase but actually decreased by more than 20,000, and previous data was also overstated, being revised down by 100,000. The unemployment rate appears to have dropped, but it's actually a numbers game—because a full 260,000 people have completely given up looking for work (as long as they don't look for work, they aren't counted as unemployed), so the unemployment rate passively looks better.
Second, the market is betting on "no rate hikes."
With such poor data, everyone thinks the Federal Reserve dares not raise rates anymore, so the dollar fell, and U.S. stocks and Bitcoin took the opportunity to rally.
Third, don't celebrate too early; next week's inflation data will decide life or death.
Now the big players disagree: some believe that in the AI era fewer people need to work, so rate hikes are meaningless; but others warn that if next week's (August 12) inflation index (CPI) remains high, the Fed will still be forced to raise rates, and no matter how bad employment is, it won't save the situation.
Now it all depends on whether next week's inflation data shows mercy—if inflation is moderate, rate cuts can be hoped for; if inflation explodes, rate hikes will have to continue. #Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes
Can you believe it? This time the nonfarm payrolls bombed.
The market expected an increase of 80,000, but the result was -23,000, directly turning negative. May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. Averaged over three months, the monthly increase is less than 15,000. At this time last year, the three-month average was still above 180,000, dropping from 180,000 to 15,000 in one year.
The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, labor force participation fell to 61.4%, with 264,000 people directly exiting the labor market. The unemployment rate fell not because more people found jobs, but because fewer people are looking for jobs.
The market reaction was very direct. The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from nearly 60% before the data release to about 40%. BTC surged straight from the pre-nonfarm low, once breaking through $65,300, hitting a new high since August. The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points, and the US dollar index also dropped.
But don’t celebrate too early.
Weak employment data indeed weakens the rationale for rate hikes, but the Federal Reserve has never said "no rate hikes if employment is weak." They said "inflation must return to 2%." Now that July nonfarm payrolls are out, the employment signal is "no hike," but the inflation signal is still "too high." Inflation hasn’t been below 2% for over five years; it’s unlikely the Fed will completely pivot based on just one employment report.
The real showdown is next Wednesday.
On August 12, July CPI will be released. If inflation continues to fall, then holding steady in September is basically set, and BTC might ride the momentum for a rally. If inflation rebounds or stays around 3.5% without dropping, then even if employment is worse, the hawks inside the Fed won’t relent.
Nonfarm payrolls gave the market a breather, but the direction will be decided by next week’s CPI.
The 65,000 level was pushed up by the nonfarm pulse, but whether it can hold depends on whether inflation cooperates. $BTC $ETH Break-even Challenge | Day 24 OKX Live Trading Diary
Initial Capital: 1500U
Current Account: 46U (Position on standby)
1. Weekend Trading Mindset Review
2.
Overall market volatility narrowed over the weekend, with mainstream assets seeing reduced trading activity. The vast majority of price action was characterized by narrow-range oscillations, which easily led to anxiety from having no trades open all day, resulting in impulsive, casual entries. Reviewing most of my previous losing trades, the root cause was emotional entries without clear structural signals, purely "trading for the sake of trading."
At this stage, I have set a strict rule: without highly compatible, certain opportunities aligned with my trading logic, I will prioritize staying out of the market, patiently waiting for quality entry windows, and never force trades in ineffective sideways movements. Capital safety is the top priority.
2. SPCX Short Sell Order Plan
1. Trading Direction: SPCX short sell for the short term
Entry order price: 133.5
Hard stop-loss point: 135.5 (strictly control loss per trade)
Tiered take-profit range: first target 126–127
2. Complete Trade Logic Breakdown
(1) Fundamental analysis of the large unlock on August 6
This is the first batch unlocking 911.5 million restricted SpaceX shares, corresponding to nearly $100 billion market value, doubling the circulating shares and naturally creating selling pressure expectations. However, the reality is that the stock price did not crash sharply on the unlock day, indicating that the prior negative earnings report and unlock selling pessimism had already been fully priced in, reducing the likelihood of short-term panic selling.
But this is only the first of nine phased unlocks, with large circulating shares continuing to be released in late August and September, so medium- to long-term supply pressure remains. Early employees and primary investors have very low cost bases, so any slight price rebound will trigger staged profit-taking selling, continuously suppressing upward rebounds. This is the core fundamental bearish support.
(2) Technical resistance confirmation
Recently, the intraday high reached 134.48, with a clear strong resistance zone around 135. Multiple attempts failed to break and hold above this level, indicating heavy selling pressure. Choosing to place a short order at 133.5, close to this key resistance, offers better entry value: if the price slightly spikes to the resistance zone but fails to continue rising, bearish momentum can easily release; even if the price briefly breaks above, the stop-loss at 135.5 limits losses, preventing large floating losses. Overall, this is a conservative short-term short position near resistance, avoiding chasing highs or lows and passively holding. The order waits for price to touch the entry level, increasing position tolerance.
(3) Key catalysts to watch
Two main variables will directly determine the outcome of this short trade:
① Post-unlock selling pace: if volume continues to expand in the following days and internal holders cash out, the short trade will steadily reach the 126–127 take-profit zone;
② Starship’s 14th test flight progress: tentatively scheduled for late August. If the test flight successfully completes key objectives like launch tower arm recovery and satellite deployment, market confidence will quickly recover, and this short trade should be exited promptly to avoid risk from bullish rallies.
If the price never reaches the 133.5 entry level over the weekend, the order will be canceled on Monday and I will continue to observe, never manually chasing price to force a trade.Capital Flow
The total market turnover in 24 hours is 773.35M USD, with BTC alone accounting for 28.4 percentage points, indicating that funds are still clustering in large-cap coins for risk aversion.
The top 5 gainers' combined turnover is 35.29M USD, accounting for 4.6 percentage points of the total market, clearly showing the proportion of smart money in offensive positions.
The top 5 losers' combined turnover is 15.40M USD, accounting for 2.0 percentage points of the total market, with selling pressure concentrated in a few coins, not a full-scale retreat.
Top 3 smart money buys: $BICO turnover 16.49M USD +55.46%, $MMT turnover 1.83M USD +20.88%, $XSPCX turnover 11.69M USD +14.97%.
Top 3 smart money sells: $BONK turnover 4.05M USD -13.40%, $ACE turnover 3.75M USD -12.96%, $KAITO turnover 4.08M USD -10.23%.
Signal: Offensive turnover is more than 1.3 times defensive turnover, with smart money actively buying, not retail investors messing around.
Judgment: Capital speaks most honestly; follow the direction of turnover, don’t imagine the market yourself.
Market data comes from OKX public API and does not constitute any investment advice.
This is the market overview; handle it at your own discretion. ⚠️ NFP Trading Rule: Don't Trust the First Move
Tonight's NFP could create a violent move in $BTC and $ETH.
Forecast: 83K
Previous: 57K
Unemployment: 4.2%
Here's the mistake many traders make:
NFP comes out.
BTC dumps.
They short.
Five minutes later...
BTC reverses and pumps.
Why?
Because the market doesn't trade the headline alone.
It trades the interpretation.
A strong payroll number can push yields higher.
But if wage growth is weak, traders may still expect easier monetary policy.
A weak payroll number can initially pump BTC.
But if unemployment jumps dramatically, recession fears can reverse the move.
🎯 My NFP checklist:
1️⃣ NFP actual vs forecast
2️⃣ Unemployment rate
3️⃣ Average hourly earnings
4️⃣ Previous-month revisions
5️⃣ Treasury yields
6️⃣ DXY reaction
7️⃣ BTC/ETH price confirmation
The first candle gives volatility.
The second move often gives information.
Don't let FOMO become your trading strategy.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound Tonight's big bullish candle looks really satisfying, but I advise everyone not to rush to pop the champagne yet.🍾
To put it simply, this is a typical case of "emotional rebound + short squeeze," just market noise, not real money entering. Look at the on-chain data and then at the ETF side—where's the sign of large-scale new money coming in? The shorts got absolutely crushed by that spike, but once that energy fades, things will go back to how they were.
Don't forget, the wound from the tens of billions of dollars flowing out of ETFs back in June hasn't healed yet. The underlying liquidity gap is still there. This $BTC rally looks mostly like a technical correction to me.
So I have no intention of touching the short positions I hold, and definitely won't stop loss chasing higher.🙅♂️
A single big bullish candle isn't going to make me switch sides. No way. If a real reversal is coming, we need to see if next week's CPI cooperates, and more importantly, if ETFs can have three to five consecutive days of net inflows. Until those signals show up, I'll treat this as an oversold bounce.
The stage is set, the actors can perform however they want, I'll just grab a small stool and watch from the back row.🎬 What's the rush? $BTC IvanaSPEAR, who has worked at top hedge funds for over a decade, believes that 2026 could be the "price peak" of this NAND/DRAM storage cycle. The core logic is that three things will happen simultaneously in 2026: HBM is competing for production resources, the AI agent boom has increased demand for DRAM and NAND, and new capacity has not kept pace. These three factors combined have led to the root cause of this round of storage shortages and price increases. But by 2027, with new capacity starting to be delivered, this price increase logic may not be as strong as in 2026. 1. Why HBM squeezes out ordinary storage? Let's first briefly understand three types of storage: HBM: High-speed data reading for GPUs, currently the most scarce and most profitable storage product for AI servers. DRAM: The memory used by the server to run programs. NAND: responsible for long-term data storage; the main component inside an SSD is NAND. Now, AI companies are frantically purchasing GPUs, driving explosive demand for HBM. Because HBM is more scarce and profits higher, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have all prioritized investing capacity, equipment, and capital in HBM. But manufacturers have limited resources. HBM itself is a high-end type of DRAM. If manufacturers produce more HBM, the resources reserved for regular DRAM naturally decrease; Prioritizing capital and equipment for HBM will also slow down the pace of NAND expansion. The result is: HBM is expanding production, but regular DRAM and NAND are not expanding simultaneously. 2. AI ANonfarm payrolls shocked overnight, BTC stands above 65K: but the real showdown is next Wednesday
What did you see last night?
US July nonfarm payrolls — decreased by 23,000.
What was the market expectation? An increase of 80,000.
The expectation gap exceeded 100,000.
May and June data were also revised down by a total of 103,000.
In other words, the actual jobs created in the US over the past three months were more than 120,000 fewer than everyone thought.
This is not a "data miss."
This is a complete collapse of the data.
Then what?
BTC instantly surged from around $63,000, once breaking through $65,300, hitting a new high for August.
Gold surged nearly 3% in a straight line, standing above $4,360.
The US Nasdaq rose 1%.
The whole market instantly got excited.
"No chance of rate hikes! Liquidity will loosen! Charge!"
But wait.
The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%.
Employment decreased, but unemployment rate fell?
Because the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.4%, the lowest since early 2021.
264,000 people exited the labor market.
Not more people found jobs.
More people gave up looking for jobs.
What’s even more intriguing — BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder said something very interesting:
"Last month's unexpectedly weak employment data reflects the 'productivity revolution' in the AI era."
He means: US companies are learning how to expand output without increasing employees.
The application of AI in work scenarios and companies' pursuit of efficiency are reshaping the employment structure.
In other words —
Nonfarm turning negative may not be a signal of economic recession, but that AI is replacing humans.
But the market doesn’t care about these.
CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September dropped directly from 55% to 44%.
A week ago, this number was still 67%.
The 10-year US Treasury yield quickly fell.
The US dollar index dropped nearly 30 points.
"Bad news" became "good news."
The only theme in market trading is: no rate hike.
However —
Don’t get too happy too soon.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell has clearly stated: if inflation data is hot, he is ready to support a rate hike in September.
Fed Governor Cook also said: if inflation doesn’t improve, she is ready to support a rate hike.
Nonfarm pushed down the rate hike probability, CPI can easily push it back up.
Next Wednesday, August 12.
US July CPI will be released.
This is the real showdown.
Employment data tells the Fed "to stop."
Inflation data may tell the Fed "not yet."
The Fed is caught in the middle, who do you think it will choose?
The market is currently trading "no rate hike."
But soon it may be trading "why isn’t the Fed cutting rates despite such a poor economy."
These two scenarios have vastly different implications for BTC —
The former is bullish.
The latter is — you thought you bottomed out, but actually caught the recession halfway down.
65K is not the end, maybe not even the start.
It’s just a crossroads.
Next Wednesday’s CPI is the key to deciding whether BTC continues to surge to 70K or turns back to 60K.
If CPI continues to cool → rate hike expectations completely collapse → BTC surges to 70K.
If CPI rebounds → rate hike expectations return → 65K may be a temporary top.
We’ll know within a week.
$BTC $ETH $BICO #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 Buying the right coin, holding it for a whole month, watching it stay flat — while $ADA surged nearly 20% in just one week. That’s the current market: $BTC hovering around $64k, more than 48% below its previous peak, but the money flow isn’t standing still — it’s moving very selectively. While small memes like $PONS, $WKC, $HEI are heating up, the privacy group $ZEC (+12%/week) and $XMR are quietly breaking out; conversely, $ONDO and the RWA group are down -10% for the week, while $XRP, $SUI, $PEPE are in a tug of war.
One perspective says this is smart money rotating — altcoins with their own stories are still winning big. But another view argues that the $ZEC, $ADA wave is just a short-term shift in a market lacking liquidity: until $BTC breaks its peak, altcoins won’t have a strong, sustainable rally.
In my opinion, what matters isn’t the price, but the money flowing into defensive groups — privacy and even gold tokens like $XAUT rising 7%/week. That’s a risk-off mentality, not an altseason. Altseason might not be gone, but fragmented into waves by sector — those who pick the right group win, those holding “good” coins waiting for a big surge might wait forever.
If you could only hold 1 coin until the end of the month, you
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound 😮 Here's a somewhat harsh truth — in this round of the asset race, the US stock market is all about AI computing power, SpaceX rocket reusability, optical module upgrades, with one story after another popping up. Gold still benefits from the "de-dollarization + safe haven in chaotic times" double insurance; looking back at the crypto space, if you count on your fingers, how many truly eye-catching "new things" have appeared in the past six months for outsiders?
😅 ETFs were the feast of 2024, the dividends have long been diluted; L2 went from being the "Ethereum savior" to a "cheap, fast chain foundry," even Vitalik personally poured cold water saying pure copy-paste Rollups have no future, the imagination ceiling is visibly low; memes are even less worth mentioning, with dog, cat, and frog tokens rotating, essentially old money inside the market just shuffling pockets, with no fresh external liquidity.
🤔 So BTC stuck in that range, neither going up nor down, it's not that no one is playing, but it lacks a "reason to enter" that can get US stock fund managers, Middle Eastern family offices, and Southeast Asian foreign trade bosses to nod in agreement. Crypto has never been unable to rise; it just temporarily lacks incremental narratives to act as its engine — price sideways means the market is waiting for the script.
🧐 So who will write the next script? My personal judgment is, it won't be a single breakout coin, but three lines braided into one: "machine payments + real-world assets on-chain + stablecoins as settlement pipes."
• First is AI Agent autonomous payments. Not just issuing another AI-prefixed ERC-20 to fool around, but robots themselves calling APIs, buying training data, paying computing fees, using USDC for millisecond-level micro-payments like x402. a16z's "KYA (Know Your Agent)" once formed, will add tens of billions of "non-human accounts" on-chain, this increment is real money brought in by Web2 enterprises.
• Second is RWA 2.0 upgrading from "national debt NFT-ization" to "native on-chain credit." Interest-bearing tokens like BUIDL, OUSG start serving as DeFi collateral, national debt yields directly moved into on-chain money markets, attracting asset management money from BlackRock, Fidelity, not retail leverage.
• Third is stablecoins shedding the "trading pair accessory" disguise, becoming the base for cross-border payroll, Latin America and Middle East settlements, and corporate treasury accounts. After GENIUS/MiCA implementation, it will be more like Visa's on-chain counterpart rather than a speculative tool.
😏 But these three are currently stuck in the "institutional pilot → productization" gap, none has a retail-friendly, instantly understandable get-rich interface like DeFi Summer 2020. So the truth behind BTC's sideways movement is what you said: waiting for someone to close the loop and give off-market money a reason to come in by themselves.
⚠️ A bit of cold water: if these three all stall at the compliance PPT stage in the second half of 2026, BTC will most likely have the "boring year" Galaxy talked about — macro assetization, suppressed volatility, competing with Nvidia for funds but losing. If breakout happens, I bet Agentic Payments will break through first because it has visual appeal (machine dogs scanning QR codes to recharge), easy media spread, and CFOs can understand it instantly; RWA is the most stable but too buttoned-up, hard to ignite passion.
🚀 Instead of guessing daily on BTC breaking previous highs by charting K-lines, better to watch three types of people: who secures real cooperation with payment giants + AI cloud providers, whose RWA custody structures withstand SEC scrutiny, whose stablecoins run daily scenarios with non-zero native crypto users. The next big narrative will definitely turn out from one of these three crossroads. $BTC $SPCX $ETH #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
Originally, the large-scale unlocking of shares was highly watched by the market, but it has unfolded in a completely unexpected way.
On August 6, the first batch of SpaceX restricted shares officially unlocked, with a total of up to 911.5 million shares becoming tradable. Before the unlocking, market concerns were very clear: the first financial report after listing showed revenue of $7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 90%, but still a net loss of $541 million. Coupled with a significant increase in capital expenditure in AI aerospace, the market was amazed by the business growth rate but worried about cash burn. Along with the huge unlocking pressure, the stock price was once under pressure after the earnings report.
However, the actual trend was surprising: after the unlocking, the price actually rose about 6%, and the related token XSPCX also rose in sync. In contrast, other stocks in the sector showed divergent trends, with funds clearly concentrating on the leader.
In this earnings season, the market valuation logic has changed. Investors no longer focus solely on single-quarter profit and loss data but pay more attention to future guidance, potential for margin improvement, and whether high capital investment can translate into real business growth.
Now that this unlocking negative factor has been absorbed by short-term funds, the market discussion focus has shifted: from worrying about unlocking sell-offs to considering whether the high investment can support the growth story of AI aerospace infrastructure.
There are two possibilities here: one is that the previous pessimistic expectations have been fully released, and the unlocking negative impact has basically been digested; the other is that this rebound is merely an emotional repair, and the grand narrative of AI aerospace still needs subsequent performance to verify and fulfill.
Going forward, blind optimism is not advisable. The key is to closely track business implementation and whether high capital expenditure can bring sustained growth, which is the core factor determining the height of the market trend. #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
On August 6, the first batch of restricted shares were unlocked, with up to 911.5 million shares available for sale. Such a large-scale unlocking initially made everyone nervous, expecting a wave of selling pressure. But the reality was completely opposite: the stock price did not fall but rose, surging nearly 6%.
Looking back at the first earnings report after listing, revenue was $7.8 billion, a year-over-year surge of 90%, a very impressive growth rate, but it still recorded a net loss of $541 million. Capital expenditure in the AI sector increased significantly. Previously, the market's two biggest concerns were the cash burn caused by high investment and the selling pressure from this unlocking. After the earnings report was released, the stock price was also under pressure for a time.
Throughout this earnings season, I have a very direct feeling: the market's evaluation logic has changed. It no longer focuses solely on whether a single quarter's performance exceeds expectations. Investors now pay more attention to next quarter's business guidance, profit margin levels, and whether the capital expenditure can support the valuation.
Now that the negative impact of the unlocking has been absorbed by the market in the short term, the focus of discussion has shifted. People no longer dwell on whether the earnings report is good or bad or whether the unlocking will crash the stock. Instead, they start discussing whether the high capital investment can truly translate into growth in AI aerospace infrastructure.
I have also been asking myself whether this rebound means the negative impact of the unlocking has been fully digested, or if it is just the AI aerospace story driving the market, with solid performance still needed to be realized later?
No matter how hot the theme is, it ultimately has to translate into actual output.