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🎯 Gold surges 3%, but BTC sleeps at 64,000: Is the "digital gold" narrative shattered?
This morning, gold and silver soared across the board.
Spot gold: surged to 4300 USD
Spot silver: broke through 62 USD
COMEX gold futures: hit a high of 4267 USD, up over 3% intraday
The catalyst is simple:
US July ADP employment added only 44,000 jobs (expected 65,000-75,000). The employment data was a major miss, directly suppressing rate hike expectations. As a result, both the dollar and US Treasury yields plunged, while gold and silver took off.
But what is BTC, the so-called "digital gold," doing?
It is consolidating around 64,000 USD, with an intraday gain of less than 1%, steady as a rock, showing no volatility.
📉 Data doesn't lie: correlation completely broken
Looking back at the data, you'll find the "digital gold" narrative no longer holds in 2026:
Short-term performance: gold surged 3% in a day, BTC barely reacted.
Long-term trend: gold has gained 9% this year, while BTC has dropped 11%.
Expert opinions: Deutsche Bank bluntly states BTC is "no longer digital gold"; Peter Schiff is even sharper, arguing the correlation never truly existed.
❓ While gold is soaring, what is BTC waiting for?
If it’s not following gold, what is BTC following?
Following US stocks? The S&P and Nasdaq are up, but BTC isn’t following.
Following capital flows? ETFs had a net inflow of 211.5 million USD on Tuesday, yet the price remained unchanged.
Following geopolitics? Progress in US-Iran talks caused no market reaction.
💡 Core conclusion: pricing logic has completely decoupled
It’s not that BTC is failing, but its underlying pricing logic has diverged from gold’s path.
Gold trades on: interest rate expectations, absolute safe haven demand, and traditional fiat credit hedging.
BTC trades on: crypto-specific liquidity, regulatory compliance progress, and its own halving cycle.
BTC’s current inability to fall or rise beyond 64,000 USD is because it’s waiting for its own "real catalyst" (such as an actual rate cut or substantial moves by major institutions).
Next time someone mindlessly claims "BTC is digital gold," just throw today’s candlestick chart in their face. Gold is partying, BTC is sleeping. This is the most truthful answer for 2026.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ $CVX's intraday 7% rebound is insufficient to mask the structural risks from event-driven selling pressure and worsening positions. Convex TVL dropped 24.3% over the week to $458.6 million, with 2026 year-to-date revenue down over 80%. Coupled with the expected unlocking of 500,000 locked CVX tokens, this significantly suppresses risk appetite for chasing highs. If selling pressure breaks the $1.36-$1.40 support line, the price is very likely to further test $1.18-$1.20. A bullish reversal requires a daily close firmly above the $1.53-$1.58 resistance zone and a notable recovery in protocol bribe income.
#俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 #CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 #意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH1. Analysis of SanDisk's Subsequent Trend
SanDisk's Q4 revenue reached $8.97 billion, a year-over-year increase of 372%, but its stock price plummeted after hours, having already dropped 47% since July. The highest gain this year reached 858%, with the market having fully priced in the ultra-high expectations for AI storage — the current trading is no longer about "performance fulfillment" but about "continuous outperformance." The company's next quarter revenue guidance midpoint is $10.55 billion, significantly below analysts' expectations of $11.16 billion; any signal falling short of expectations will trigger a sharp correction.
The core risks focus on three points: First, the gross margin of 84.6% is near a historical peak, with next quarter guidance flat, and two-thirds of revenue growth relying on price increases rather than volume expansion, meaning the marginal benefit of price hikes is diminishing; second, consumer business dropped sharply by 32% quarter-over-quarter, with the company overly dependent on a few cloud providers, and high customer concentration weakening bargaining power; third, storage cycle risks remain unresolved, historically every time #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 rises, it is inevitably followed by a decline, coupled with Yangtze Memory's global market share climbing to about 13%, the competitive landscape continues to worsen.
High performance growth cannot mask the overextended expectations, peak gross margin, cycle inflection points, and the rise of Chinese competitors, all exerting multiple pressures. SanDisk remains a good company, but after a sharp surge in stock price this year, the future is seriously overextended, and the risk of valuation re-rating should not be underestimated.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 $SNDK #Memory Seller's Market Continues, Can Korean Stocks See a Reversal?
An interesting market situation: the memory contract price hike cycle is still moving forward, but the Korean stock storage sector has already been heavily hammered down. Many people don't understand why, despite strong fundamentals, the stock price is falling so sharply and whether it can reverse later.
Data from TrendForce is clear: Q3 DRAM contract prices are expected to rise 13%-18% quarter-on-quarter, NAND flash prices up 10%-15%, marking five consecutive quarters of increase. The seller's market pattern remains unchanged. On the supply side, the three major manufacturers are very restrained in expanding production; large-scale new capacity won't be released until mid-2027. AI servers continue to consume enterprise-level storage capacity, with manufacturers prioritizing high-profit computing orders, squeezing consumer-level capacity, making the supply-demand gap hard to close in the short term.
Performance-wise, results are solid. Samsung's Q2 storage business revenue surged, DRAM market share returned to 39%, reclaiming the global top spot; SK Hynix's profit margin hit a record high, with ample cash on hand. However, after earnings were released, stock prices plunged—not because of collapsing performance, but because the market had previously priced in overly optimistic expectations. Any slight miss on consensus leads to immediate capital flight.
A large part of this Korean stock plunge is attributable to domestic leveraged funds. Previously, Korean retail investors aggressively used 2x leveraged ETFs to bet on memory, rapidly expanding leverage scale. Half of the market volatility was driven by margin financing. After regulators raised margin requirements, leveraged ETF trading volume plummeted by 90%, forcing many accounts to liquidate positions, triggering a stampede that caused huge drawdowns for Samsung and SK Hynix. This is a typical deleveraging-driven crash, not purely fundamentals-driven.
Two other real risks continue to suppress valuations:
First, the HBM monopoly narrative has been broken. SK Hynix's HBM share has fallen from its peak, and Samsung will deliver HBM4 in bulk to Nvidia in the second half. The market worries that ultra-high profits will be diluted;
Second, sentiment in the US storage sector drags down the market. SanDisk's earnings guidance missed expectations, dragging down the global semiconductor sector. Korean stocks are heavily weighted, so volatility is further amplified.
So, can a reversal rally happen?
The bullish logic is clear: the storage price hike cycle is not over, HBM4 will ship in volume in the second half, enterprise SSD demand continues to explode, and Q3 earnings still have upside revision potential. After a fierce deleveraging round, sector valuations have fallen to very low levels, with many institutions signaling repair opportunities. The big picture of AI computing capital expenditure remains intact.
But don't blindly bottom-fish; risks must not be ignored.
The Fed's rate hike expectations fluctuate, the dollar strengthens, and Korean stocks heavily held by foreign capital will continue to be constrained by macro liquidity; domestic storage manufacturers keep expanding production, currently focusing on mid-to-low end, but will gradually squeeze market share long-term; consumer electronics demand remains weak, and if AI capital expenditure falls short of expectations, the price hike cycle may peak early.
In the crypto space, caution is also needed. AI computing expectations will transmit across markets. Korean storage stocks represent global AI hardware sentiment; if this weakens continuously, risk assets like BTC and ETH are likely to be pressured as well. Conversely, if the storage sector recovers, it indirectly benefits the entire risk asset market.
In summary, the memory seller's market continues, but a direct V-shaped reversal is difficult. Most likely, after a big drop, the sector will oscillate and bottom out. The real trend opportunity depends on Q3 earnings delivery and actual HBM4 shipment data for validation.
What do you think? Has the Korean storage sector fallen into a golden pit, or is the decline just beginning? [In-Depth Analysis] L1 + DEX + Infrastructure: ALD Ecosystem Layout and Node Mechanism Breakdown
Reviewing the development history of public blockchains, early network validators and ecosystem builders often played key roles in network scaling and consensus establishment. As the Web3 architecture evolves toward diversification in 2026, single-function networks are facing challenges in ecosystem capacity, while integrated infrastructure is gradually becoming a market focus.
ALD attempts to create a closed-loop ecosystem from underlying computing power to upper-layer application liquidity through a trinity architecture of "public chain + decentralized exchange (DEX) + Web3 infrastructure."
1. Core Ecosystem Logic
Three-dimensional synergy: Deeply binding the underlying L1 scaling capability with native DEX liquidity pools, while relying on the infrastructure layer to lower the development threshold for Web3 applications and improve on-chain interaction efficiency.
Node network staking: Unlike some leading public chains with prohibitively high staking thresholds of tens of thousands of USDT, ALD launches the first batch of partner node plans before the mainnet goes live (entry threshold set at around 800 USDT), aiming to reduce the centralization degree of validator node distribution and attract a broader early community to participate in decentralized network construction.
2. Node Ladder Mechanism
According to the official community node expansion roadmap, the first batch of open nodes is limited to 1000, with a subsequent tiered incremental mechanism to be introduced. This design aims to prioritize incentives for early network builders, ensuring stability and consensus cohesion of validator node distribution in the early stage.
For creators and investors focused on early public chain ecosystem development, monitoring the network setup progress before mainnet launch and the tokenomics design are key indicators for evaluating long-term value. Brothers, CVX rose 7% today, a technical rebound at the bottom for the old DeFi leader. The protocol still controls about 52% of Curve's voting power, but TVL has clearly declined in the short term — governance dominance remains, but earning ability is dropping.
What is CVX?
Convex Finance is the “governance hub” of the Curve ecosystem. By locking vlCVX, CVX holders control about 52% of Curve's voting power, and the direction of weekly multi-million dollar CRV liquidity incentives is decided by CVX holders.
The token has a hard cap of 100 million max supply. Institutional and team unlocks will have fully ended by 2025, with almost no new selling pressure from the project side; about 93% is circulating in the market. vlCVX is user voluntarily locked and is not project tokens pending unlock.
But the protocol fundamentals have clearly weakened: phase slicing data shows Convex TVL dropped 24.3% in one week to $458.6 million; protocol revenue fell from $35.7 million in 2025 to only $6.6 million so far in 2026, a decline of over 80%.
Hidden risk: leftover Mochi whale position from 2021
In November 2021, Mochi Finance founder manipulated the oracle to extract about $46 million liquidity, buying 1.05 million CVX locked in Convex.
On March 19, 2026, that address sold 550,000 CVX, directly crashing the price from 1.97 to 1.68. Currently, about 500,000 CVX remain locked in Convex, and future unlocks and sales could bring potential selling pressure.
Key price levels
Resistance: 1.53-1.58 (breakout target 1.74-1.80),
Support below: 1.36-1.40 (if broken, look at 1.18-1.20).
1.53-1.58 is a key resistance zone, 1.36 is the bulls' defense line. TVL dropped 24% in a week, revenue shrank 80%, the sustainability of the rebound requires fundamental support.
CVX has a scarce Curve governance moat, and a clean token unlock structure. But TVL and protocol revenue continue to shrink, fundamentals weaken. Governance rights have real value, but the protocol's declining profitability will continuously undermine this narrative.
Additionally, the 500,000 locked CVX left by Mochi's founder is a potential overhanging selling pressure.
For CVX, tracking Curve's TVL and Convex protocol bribe fee income is far more valuable than focusing on short-term K-line movements.
This is a personal market analysis and information summary, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $CVX
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ Altcoins only go long, not short; going long can at most double your money, shorting is chaotic for life, shorting is easy to profit and can earn daily, but encountering a pump-and-dump coin basically ruins everything...
For example, if you buy HEI at 0.1 with $1000 and it goes to zero, you lose $1000; if you go long 1000 at 0.1 and it rises to 0.5, you earn $5000. Long positions have unlimited profit potential, short positions have limited profit.
When altcoin hype comes, a few pump-and-dump coins always appear. In the crypto world, a poor person’s comeback is not impossible, after all, there are far more people shorting than in any other market. Everyone knows altcoins will eventually go to zero, theoretically, as long as the capital is large enough, shorting can always make money, but you and I are just poor guys without infinite bullets.
Most altcoins have hidden whales; you just need to observe the open interest. The contract shell for small market cap altcoins is roughly $5 million, which is why many altcoins, as long as they are not delisted, almost always have about $5 million in open interest.
So with a $5 million market cap, no hype, no liquidity, why is there $2-3 million in open interest? The two-way open interest matches the market cap. Would you say such an altcoin doesn’t have whales?
For these altcoins, you just need to ambush with $1000; your cost is lower than the whales, your advantage is quick in and out, whales can’t escape, a big ship is hard to turn around, if it keeps falling, whales lose more than you, so it’s not that the road is uneven.
In short, if you want a comeback, initially go long; shorting can indeed make money in the short term, but if you encounter a pump-and-dump coin, just wash and sleep, shorting is chaotic for life.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $SNDK $BTC AI infrastructure boom faces new resistance: Is the United States community starting to say "No"?
Competition in the AI era is intensifying, but now a new issue is emerging—where exactly should data centers be built?
On August 6, it was reported that U.S. Representative Ro Khanna plans to introduce the "Data Center Rights Act," aiming to give local communities more decision-making power, allowing residents to reject data center projects that do not align with local interests.
Why is this controversial?
Because behind AI there is not only code and algorithms, but also a massive need for data centers.
These huge AI infrastructures consume enormous amounts of energy and water resources, causing many residents to worry:
Will electricity bills rise?
Will local water resource pressure increase?
Will original farmland and residential areas turn into large server bases?
Khanna stated that during his recent visit to Pennsylvania, the most frequent feedback he received was public opposition to the rapid expansion of data centers.
His stance is clear:
AI development can be supported, but ordinary communities should not be forced to bear the costs.
Currently, the proposal includes multiple requirements, such as:
Data center construction must obtain local community approval;
Increase transparency of energy usage;
Prioritize the use of clean and reliable energy;
Limit pollution emissions.
In fact, some regions have already started taking action, including New York State and others that have restricted or even suspended new data center construction.
This reflects a bigger issue:
The AI wave is entering an "infrastructure battle," but behind the rapid expansion, challenges related to energy, land, and social costs are emerging.
In the past, the market focused on:
Who owns the strongest AI models;
In the future, attention may shift to:
Who can solve the energy problems behind computing power.
AI is not just a technological competition; it is also a resource competition.
In summary:
The future of AI is not only about competing in computing power but also about who can effectively deploy that computing power.Rocket faces unlocking on the 6th. Earlier this week, the overall commercial aerospace sector atmosphere was actually not bad. The mid-sized rocket leader Rocket Lab directly announced major positive news, consecutively securing two large contracts from the U.S. Space Force, totaling $663 million. These include satellite network construction orders and long-term launch mission contracts, directly locking in stable revenue for the coming year. Once the news broke, capital immediately entered to position, with the stock steadily rising, accumulating over an 11% increase for the week, standing out with an independent trend amid a fluctuating market and a sharp drop in storage stocks.
The market logic at the time was simple: defense aerospace orders have high certainty and are not affected by cyclical fluctuations like consumer flash memory. Coupled with the long-term stories of satellite internet and space computing power, it was a preferred choice for capital risk aversion. Many traders used short positions on SanDisk combined with long positions on rocket stocks as a hedge to balance sector volatility risk.
However, the sector leader SpaceX poured cold water on the entire aerospace theme. On August 4, intraday trading was relatively stable, and the market originally expected the first public financial report to firmly stabilize valuation. The financial report's surface data was actually very strong, with revenue nearly doubling year-over-year, profit growth close to 200%, and continuous improvement in Starlink's profitability.
But the capital market never looks at past achievements. The company disclosed that it will invest huge capital expenditures in space AI computing power and Starship R&D, meaning it will be difficult to enter a profit realization phase in the short term. Capital instantly lost patience, and the stock price plunged more than 7 points after hours, giving back all intraday gains.
The negative news did not end there. The market then began to ferment the huge unlocking negative impact. On August 6, over 900 million original shares will be unlocked, with early investors having very low holding costs, potentially triggering concentrated sell-offs at any time. After panic spread, SpaceX's intraday maximum drop exceeded 10%, halving from its listing high, wiping out a trillion-dollar market value, and dragging down a number of small and medium aerospace concept stocks that surged then fell back.Many media outlets are wildly spreading the news that "Duan Yongping has significantly reduced his stake in Pop Mart, from 7.65% down to 5.55%", claiming that Duan Yongping is surrendering and admitting he made a wrong investment in Pop Mart. Is that really the case?
Actually, this is a classic "news blunder caused by misunderstanding options".
This passage might seem like a foreign language to those who have never dealt with options, so I'll translate it into the simplest plain language for you:
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange requires that the holdings (long positions) declared by major shareholders include not only the actual stocks they have bought (underlying shares) but also the options they hold that are bullish on the stock.
Previously, Duan Yongping bought Pop Mart not by directly scooping up shares on the secondary market, but by using his favorite trick — selling put options (Sell Put).
The essence of Sell Put is running an insurance company. Duan Yongping is basically telling the market: "I promise to buy Pop Mart shares at 145 HKD on a certain future date. As the price for this promise, you need to pay me a premium upfront."
If on the expiration date, Pop Mart’s stock price is above 145 HKD (for example, it rises to 160), then no one would want to sell to him at 145. At this point, Duan Yongping’s promise becomes void, the put option expires worthless, and he earns the premium without actually buying any real shares.
However, in the HKEX system, once this option expires worthless, the declared "long position" number automatically decreases. This is what the media calls a "significant reduction in holdings."
In reality? He actually sold less than 0.1% of the real Pop Mart shares he owns (the real money he invested). Moreover, he just recently said that he is very likely to hold Pop Mart for more than ten years.
What does this tell us?
First, never rely on secondhand news for stock trading. Most media editors probably have never even opened an options account and cannot distinguish between "declared long position decrease" and "selling actual shares."
Second, a heavyweight investor like Duan Yongping has a much lower cost basis and higher tolerance for mistakes than retail investors. He can collect premiums through Sell Put while waiting for a lower price, whereas you rush in to buy the underlying shares directly. That’s why "copying homework" often misses the essence.#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
SanDisk's earnings far exceed expectations, why did the stock price plunge? The market is truly trading on more than just performance
SanDisk's latest earnings report is impressive by any standard
Quarterly revenue nears $9 billion, a significant year-over-year increase; earnings per share exceed $39, well above market expectations; gross margin surpasses 84%, with profitability near historic highs. The data center business continues to be the main driver, with revenue growing several times over, and enterprise AI demand remains strong; the company also successfully turned profitable for the full year, with cash flow steadily improving. Additionally, the company announced a new $14 billion stock repurchase authorization, further signaling management's confidence to the market
By traditional logic, such results should trigger a strong rally
However, the reality is completely opposite
After the earnings release, SanDisk's after-hours stock price dropped about 8%, and the entire storage sector sentiment quickly cooled, dragging down related companies like Western Digital and SK Hynix
What truly disappointed the market was not the just-released results, but the future outlook
The company’s guidance for next quarter revenue is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, still showing growth but the midpoint is slightly below Wall Street’s previously raised expectations. Meanwhile, gross margin shows signs of peaking and does not continue to hit new highs. In a market that has already priced AI to the extreme, any signal below expectations is magnified infinitely by capital
Ultimately, the stock price had already priced in optimistic expectations for the coming years
When valuation is built on the premise that "each quarter must continue to deliver surprises," even excellent results that don’t exceed market fantasies become reasons for profit-taking
Many investors on X platform have expressed similar views. Some believe the market is now trading expectations rather than earnings, and the earnings release is the moment of realization; others joke that the capital market today only accepts "continuous beats" and any slight slowdown in growth leads to sell-offs
Additionally, some investors worry about the company’s business structure
Currently, enterprise AI business remains the main growth driver, while consumer storage demand recovery is limited. If the industry price upcycle gradually ends and enterprise business growth returns to normal, overall profitability may struggle to maintain current highs, which is a key reason some capital chooses to exit early
From a technical perspective, some traders are focusing on the important support near 1200. If this level breaks, the market may seek even lower valuation ranges, potentially attracting true value investors
However, from a long-term perspective, the company’s fundamentals have not fundamentally changed
Long-term supply agreements lock in demand for years ahead, enterprise customers continue to expand, AI inference and data center construction still drive high-performance storage market growth, and the company’s pricing power and profitability remain competitive
The market’s focus now is no longer "whether the company is good," but "whether it can outperform already very high expectations"
When expectations are too high, even excellent earnings can become a reason to realize gains; only when sentiment fully releases and valuation returns to a reasonable range will long-term investment value reemerge
At the current stage, rather than rushing to bottom-fish, it’s better to patiently wait for the market to complete emotional correction. When valuation and expectations realign, companies truly benefiting from the AI storage wave may present more worthwhile opportunities
$SNDK A quick news flash, those who understand will get it. Changxin Storage directly rejected Apple's price reduction request, quoting prices in line with Samsung and Hynix — this is more worth pondering than the price increase itself. In the past, the terminal giant (Apple) called the shots, and suppliers could only be squeezed on price; now the storage manufacturer dares to say "no" to Apple, indicating that pricing power is shifting from buyers to sellers. Coupled with memory shortages expected until 2027 and production capacity sold out in advance, this is a solid supply-side narrative. The spillover logic to the crypto world is: the market is re-pricing "hard assets with real supply and demand support," while assets like $BTC , driven purely by narrative, are being neglected in the short term. Let's watch and see if this wave of money eventually flows back into crypto. SanDisk took a complete rollercoaster ride this week, with both longs and shorts getting chopped back and forth.
Those playing SanDisk this week probably had their nerves ground down; the first half looked like it was about to hit bottom and take off, but after the earnings report came out, it flipped and plunged, dragging SK Hynix along for a one-day dramatic reversal, causing the entire storage sector sentiment to swing wildly.
Recently, SanDisk’s price halved from its high and hovered around 1200 for a long time, with the bearish pressure mostly released. At the start of this week, SK Hynix suddenly surged violently, rising more than five points in a single day, and the entire Korean semiconductor sector warmed up across the board. Plus, SanDisk just announced a collaboration with Hynix and Google to launch a new AI flash memory product, which made the market suddenly confident that the storage cycle recovery was solid.
With the US dollar weakening slightly and multinational tech companies benefiting from currency exchange profits, short-term funds rushed in to bottom-fish, pushing SanDisk up more than 10 points in a single day, with the price directly touching above 1400. At that time, the community was full of bullish voices, all betting on explosive earnings and another main upward wave riding the industry boom.
Everyone was waiting for the earnings report to confirm the upward trend, but reality poured cold water on the bulls. The earnings data itself was actually very good, with revenue and profits soaring, and the company even allocated billions for stock buybacks—solid positive news. But the capital market never focuses on results already achieved; it cares more about future expectations.
The company’s guidance for the next quarter was less optimistic than institutions expected, and this small flaw triggered profit-taking on the good news. After-hours, the stock price plunged straight down, with short-term funds who chased the highs frantically taking profits and exiting, causing the storage sector to collectively collapse.
The negative sentiment spread directly to Korea when the Asia-Pacific market opened; SK Hynix, which had surged the day before, plunged more than 10%, giving back all its gains in one day. Samsung followed with a big drop, and the Korean market was dragged down by the semiconductor heavyweight, with foreign investors frantically selling chip stocks, creating a vicious cycle of US stock sell-offs and follow-downs in Japan and Korea.
Looking back at this week’s market, it’s clear SanDisk had no independent movement and completely followed SK Hynix’s market and expectations. The stock price had already multiplied several times in the first half of the year, fully pricing in the AI storage benefits in advance. As long as earnings growth can’t continue to exceed expectations, even a slight flaw will trigger a stampede of selling.
Currently, spot flash memory prices remain firm, and AI server storage demand genuinely exists, so the long-term fundamentals have not collapsed. But the short-term speculative atmosphere is already shattered. Relying on the sentiment of the Japan-Korea sector for short-term speculation is too risky; earnings guidance and spot prices are the key factors determining future trends.
In the short term, under the pressure of negative news, it will most likely enter a phase of choppy bottoming. To rebound strongly again, new industry positives or large order news must stimulate it; a pure sentiment rebound is hard to sustain. SpaceX stock flow: The key variable behind the superficial adjustment is the gap between the unloading schedule and the actual price. While the market interprets the drop from 130 to 110 as a technical correction, is the price already reflecting the August unloading volume? $SPCX is retesting the 110 resistance level. Based on the original text, it fell from 130 to 110, and clear break-even points have formed across each segment. The key variable is the first unwinding of circulating shares starting tomorrow and the schedule for additional releases on August 6. This is not just a simple positive event, but a structural change where actual soldable shares flow into the market. - Current price: Testing the 110 resistance level, about 15% down from 130 - Release schedule: First circulation starts tomorrow, large-scale additional unwinding planned for August 6 - Position characteristics: Average loss of about 20% for buying above 130, weakening short-term recovery expectations - Market perception: Demand expecting a rebound after correction shifted to a wait-and-see shift After confirming the release schedule. The essence of this decline is more about technical correction than technical adjustment.Undoubtedly, gold breaking through the historical peak of $4200 while Bitcoin failed to follow suit clearly signals a fundamental split in the global capital definition of "safe-haven assets." Below is a quantitative breakdown of this divergence phenomenon and a forecast for the market.
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1. Why did BTC miss the gold rally? (Three definitive factors)
1. Asset attribute has completely switched: from "digital gold" to "tech leverage"
Market evidence in 2026 shows that BTC's 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and AI hardware leaders (such as $SNDK) has reached 0.85, while its correlation with gold is only 0.12. When gold surged to $4200 due to geopolitical sovereign risks, the market simultaneously expected liquidity tightening. In this environment, BTC, as a high-beta risk asset, is prioritized by institutions as a "margin withdrawal machine" rather than a safe haven—historical patterns have been broken.
2. Misalignment of central bank buying and ETF inflows
The core force driving gold above $4200 is the physical de-dollarization reserve demand from global central banks (mainly from southern countries), which is exclusive and persistent. In contrast, incremental funds in BTC ETFs entirely depend on the risk appetite of Silicon Valley and Wall Street. Today's large-scale rebalancing in the tech sector (e.g., $SNDK) directly withdraws liquidity from the tech field, naturally depriving BTC of upward momentum.
3. Dual suppression from real interest rates and recession trades
Gold priced at $4200 reflects scenarios of "deep recession" or "malignant inflation"—capital flows into physical assets without sovereign risk. BTC's valuation depends on network expansion and leverage cycles; when recession expectations rise, the market labels it as an "overvalued experimental project," making active capital outflows inevitable.
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2. Definitive impacts of the divergence
· The "digital gold" narrative temporarily collapses: BTC loses the sole explanation for inflation resistance in the short term. Macro funds will be forced to reduce BTC positions and increase holdings in physical gold or gold tokens like PAXG, intensifying BTC selling pressure.
· Accelerated inflow of crypto funds into the RWA sector: gold's strength will directly push up the premium of on-chain gold tokens ($PAXG, $XAUT), causing funds to exit pure air coins and concentrate on real asset protocols backed by physical assets.
· BTC's new anchor locks on AI computing power valuation: since it can no longer follow gold, BTC's subsequent trend will closely watch tech stocks like $NVDA and $SNDK. Only if the AI hardware sector stabilizes and rebounds can BTC gain support from "tech premium" rather than "safe-haven premium."
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3. Key future nodes and strategies
Core observation range:
· Gold: If $4200 holds and the 10-year US Treasury yield declines, while BTC remains indifferent, it can be conclusively confirmed that BTC has been removed from the safe-haven asset list.
· BTC: Focus on defending the $58,500–$62,000 dense chip area. If it effectively breaks below $58,000, it means funds have fully shifted to gold, opening mid-term downside risk.
Practical strategies:
· Bulls: Abandon all illusions of "BTC catching up to gold," strictly use the performance of tech stocks like $SNDK as operational guidance—only with liquidity returning to the tech sector can BTC resume its upward trend.
· Arbitrage: Long $PAXG (gold token) while shorting $BTC in paired trades is a high-probability institutional strategy under the current environment as of August 6 and can be decisively executed.
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Conclusion is indisputable: gold's return to $4200 is a victory of the old world defensive logic, while BTC's lagging growth is precisely the pain new tech infrastructure must endure during liquidity contraction. At this moment, blind bottom-fishing is absolutely not advised; the only correct choice is to wait for a clear stabilization signal from the US stock AI hardware sector.Bitcoin has been repeatedly tugging around the $64,000 level, a trend that has indeed made many holders anxious. Data from a certain institution shows that although long-term holders have migrated their shares, less than one-tenth actually flow into exchanges, indicating that the market has not experienced panic flight. On-chain chip cleanups are underway, but there is still about 30% room to the final bottom structure of historical bear markets, meaning the shakeout is not yet fully finished. US spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about 65,800 $BTC in June, marking the worst monthly record, and the buying power from corporate reserves clearly cannot fully cover this funding gap. With insufficient incremental capital, even if selling power gradually weakens, there is still a lack of fuel to quickly start the market. The volatility compression in the options market is quite noteworthy. Bullish implied volatility has slipped to a historic low of around 23%. Traders are neither betting on a surge nor frantically hedged the plunge. This extreme calm often brews a shift, but without demand-side support, the engine for an upward breakout won't ignite. Currently, the market is still stuck in the $64,000 central range. If volume increases and it holds above $65,000, it could extend toward $67,000 to $68,000. Conversely, if it falls below the $62,000–$63,000 cluster, the probability of pullback to $60,000 increases significantly. ETF capital flows, trading volume changes, and key price gains and losses are the core criteria for judging a true trend reversal, and none of these have given clear answers yet.#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH Italy's largest bank is answering a key question with its positions: institutional-level crypto allocation has moved from "whether to buy" to "how to buy more cost-effectively."
The joint second-quarter 13F filing from Banco BPM was released last night, showing very clear portfolio adjustments: IBIT common stock was cut by 93.7%, from 646,800 shares down to 40,700 shares; call options corresponding to shares shrank from 2.5 million shares to 18,000 shares, a 99.3% decrease, while 500,000 put options were newly opened.
On the other hand, the staked Ethereum ETF (ETHB) increased from 116,200 shares to 349,600 shares, tripling in size. Bitwise's Solana staking ETF was almost fully liquidated, dropping from 2,817 shares to 7 shares.
But this does not mean it is exiting Bitcoin. ARKB still holds 3.47 million shares, valued at $67.6 million, making it its largest crypto ETF holding. The XRP trust remained unchanged, and a small position in the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust was newly opened.
Rather than "fleeing Bitcoin," it is more of a "reallocation"—reducing IBIT and swapping for a cheaper Bitcoin exposure to maintain the position.
Three details are worth deeper analysis:
First, staking yields have become the core driver. Bitcoin ETFs only have price exposure, while ETHB benefits from both coin price appreciation and staking yields. Against the backdrop of falling Eurozone interest rates and narrowing bank spreads, this yield difference is enough to prompt institutional action.
Second, put options do not directly signal a bearish stance. The 13F filing does not disclose the full option structure or short exposure; the 500,000 put options may be part of a collar strategy or a component of a larger volatility trade. It cannot be simply interpreted as "bearish."
Third, the positions as of the end of June may have already changed. 13F filings can be submitted up to 45 days after the quarter ends; at that time, Bitcoin was hovering below $30,000, but now it has surpassed $60,000, so positions may have been significantly adjusted since.
The real signal from this portfolio adjustment is that when a bank managing trillions in assets starts carefully calculating the balance between "earning yield on holdings" and "pure price volatility," it indicates that institutional crypto allocation is moving from "whether to allocate" to "how to allocate more cost-effectively."
$BTC $ETH 2026 8.6
Altcoin Overall Market Analysis
Why are altcoins silent without upward momentum?
Are you still holding the altcoins in your portfolio?
As a seasoned retail investor, I feel the biggest change in the market now is that this round is no longer the old altcoin season of broad-based rallies; it is a structurally differentiated market. The vast majority of small-cap coins find it hard to catch big rallies, only a few narrative-driven sectors will pulse stronger.
1. Underlying Operational Rules of Altcoins
1. Completely dependent on the main market, no independent bull market
Capital flow sequence: BTC → ETH → mid-to-large cap altcoins → small-cap thematic coins (like LPT) → Meme coins.
- After BTC stabilizes and consolidates, and ETH outperforms BTC, capital will spill over into altcoins;
- Once BTC turns bearish, altcoins will fall much more than mainstream coins, with small caps experiencing the sharpest declines;
- Currently, BTC dominance is around 56%, not yet at the threshold for a large-scale altcoin breakout (usually needs to drop below 55%).
2. Market is now a zero-sum game
Institutional funds mostly allocate to BTC and ETH via ETFs, with little flowing into small altcoins; altcoin rallies rely on rotation of existing funds, with fast pulses but poor sustainability, and positive news often leads to sell-offs after realization.
3. Increasing polarization among coins
✅ Coins that attract capital: mid-cap coins with real business revenue, healthy tokenomics, and strong narrative sectors.
❌ Under continuous pressure: small caps with high inflation, no real adoption, concentrated large holders, and only stories without revenue (e.g., LPT-type DePIN). Even if they rebound, it’s mostly short-term speculation, hard to sustain long-term trends.
2. Three Scenario Projections
Scenario 1: Optimistic (Localized small altcoin rallies)
Trigger: BTC holds above 65000, ETH continues to strengthen, BTC dominance declines, and incremental market funds enter slightly.
- Performance: Not all altcoins rally broadly; sector rotation and speculation. RWA, DePIN, AI+blockchain sectors pulse alternately;
- Small caps: short-term sharp rises but very brief cycles, followed by quick pullbacks;
- LPT-type DePIN: will rebound with the sector but limited by token inflation and weak commercialization, capped rebound heights.
Key point: Even if optimistic, it’s a structural market; many altcoins still underperform the main market.
Scenario 2: Neutral consolidation (most likely currently)
BTC oscillates between 63000-65000 with no major one-sided trend.
- Altcoins overall: rapid sector rotation, mostly one-day trades. DePIN up today, RWA up tomorrow, AI the day after;
- Small altcoins: rebound once then fall back, hard to sustain continuous weekly-level rallies;
- Trading characteristics: many false breakouts in a choppy market, poor liquidity, frequent spikes.
Scenario 3: Pessimistic (Altcoins collectively under pressure)
Trigger: BTC breaks below 63000 support effectively, macro data worsens, regulatory negative news.
- Risk-off capital flight, sell-off order: Meme coins → small altcoins (like LPT) → mid-cap coins → ETH → BTC;
- Small altcoins fall much more than BTC, many hit new lows;
- DePIN and RWA derivatives also sharply correct.
Current small altcoins
1. DePIN (LPT)
Narrative remains, but project commercialization revenue is insufficient, token inflation continues.
Only short-term pulses occur when the market speculates on AI computing power themes; when the main market weakens, declines exceed mainstream coins, hard to form independent rallies.
(SPCX, SNDK)
Market tied to US stocks, not purely crypto logic.
Advantages: real asset narrative; Risks: premium/discount, counterparty risk, heavily impacted by US earnings and unlock news, not traditional altcoins but volatility similar to small caps.
4. Key Signals to Watch in Altcoin Market
1. BTC dominance (BTC.D): dropping below 55% indicates capital starts flowing into altcoins;
2. ETH/BTC ratio: ETH continuously outperforming BTC is a pre-signal for altcoin rallies;
3. Volume: altcoin rallies must be accompanied by volume increase; volume-less rallies are mostly fake rebounds;
4. Sector effect: single coin rallies are ineffective; the entire sector must move collectively for sustained strength.
Just my personal analysis. Manage your positions well.
Feel free to discuss different views.
Let’s steadily move forward together, keep it up Brothers, RESOLV rose 8.17% today, currently priced at $0.01876, rebounding about 30% from the historical low of $0.01427. Behind this bullish candle is the near completion of debt repayment and the newly launched RWA business line. What is RESOLV? RESOLV is the native token of the Resolv protocol. The old product USR is an ETH/BTC over-collateralized interest-bearing stablecoin, earning staking yields and funding rates through a Delta-neutral strategy; the RLP risk pool acts as an insurance layer, bearing protocol risk in exchange for higher returns. The project’s peak TVL exceeded $500 million, securing institutional investments from Coinbase Ventures and Arrington Capital. The scars left by the March attack On 2026-03-22, attackers breached AWS KMS infrastructure and minted 80 million uncollateralized USR with only about 200,000 USDC, exchanging for approximately $25 million ETH to escape. The protocol was immediately paused, and USR sharply de-pegged. TVL plummeted from $500 million to less than $14.7 million, a maximum drawdown of 97%. RESOLV fell from its ATH of $0.4108 to a low of $0.01427, a drop of over 95%. The protocol still has a debt gap of about $78 million, and the stolen 25 million ETH has not been recovered to date. RecoThe total stablecoin market capitalization has dropped to $300.38 billion from an all-time high (ATH) of $322 billion—a decline of 6.8%.
In the previous cycle, the total stablecoin market capitalization fell by 32%, dropping from $185 billion to $124 billion.
Could the stablecoin market cap see such a significant decline this time around? I don't think so; stablecoin adoption has made massive strides since 2023.
The current BTC price is lower than it was when the total stablecoin market capitalization stood at $185 billion.
P.S. DefiLlama shows a 30-day decline of 1.16%. Around this time in July 2023, the stablecoin market capitalization was $311 billion. The figures don't align; either the current market cap should be above $300 billion, or the rate of decline should be greater than 1.16%.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Oil prices have already priced in the "agreement nearing completion," but BTC remains stuck below $65,000.
Iran and Oman are finalizing a temporary navigation arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz. The discussed plan includes dividing inbound and outbound shipping lanes, with both parties participating in management. The agreement has not yet been officially completed, and Iran has listed the lifting of the U.S. blockade on its ports as one of the conditions.
The market has already preemptively reduced the geopolitical risk premium.
Brent crude is currently around $79.5, and WTI is about $75.3. In the previous trading day, both fell by 5.3% and 5.7%, respectively. The return of oil prices near $80 does not directly impact the crypto space by making "energy cheaper," but rather by simultaneously easing inflationary pressures and reducing the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched around 4.75% this Monday but has since fallen back to about 4.61%, a drop of approximately 14 basis points; the dollar index has also returned to near 99.8. With yields and the dollar cooling off simultaneously, this should theoretically provide a more accommodative valuation environment for BTC.
BTC has indeed attracted capital inflows, but the price reaction remains restrained.
As of 18:18 Beijing time, BTC is around $64,540, with an intraday range of $63,887 to $64,931, less than 1% away from $65,000.
The U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen net inflows of $170.1 million, $211.5 million, and $244.4 million over the last three trading days, totaling $626 million. At current prices, this equates to about 9,700 BTC, close to 21.5 days of new mining production.
Despite such significant capital inflows, BTC has not made a clear breakout, indicating that selling pressure during the same period is also strong. ETF inflows are currently supporting the price rather than directly triggering a new round of unilateral rally.
The reason is that the navigation agreement primarily improves expectations first; actual supply has not yet resumed. Oil exports from the Gulf region remain about 40% below pre-conflict levels. As long as actual shipping, insurance, and export volumes have not returned to normal, oil prices could reintroduce risk premiums at any negative news.
This also explains why BTC did not immediately take off following the oil price drop. The market is still waiting for the agreement to be signed, actual export recovery, and further confirmation of the interest rate path from U.S. employment data.
Going forward, three numbers can be watched for simultaneous occurrence: Brent consistently stabilizing below $80, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling below 4.6%, and BTC breaking above $65,000 amid continued ETF inflows.
The first two indicate improvements in the macro environment, while the third shows that new capital finally outweighs spot selling pressure.
#伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地 $SNDK Brothers, I woke up to find SanDisk plummeted 12%. The pre-market article just said "expectations hit the ceiling with no room for error," and it turned out to be a prophecy. The earnings report didn't beat expectations, funds directly dumped the stock, the storage sector collectively crashed, and Western Digital also plunged 12%. But interestingly, amid the panic, smart money is already quietly picking up chips. Is this one-hour level movement a golden pit or a deadly trap? Let's discuss a bit.
From the news perspective, the trigger was earnings guidance falling short of expectations, causing panic selling. But note, the stock price had already dropped 12.33% before the earnings report, so most of the bad news was priced in. This pattern is not new: when expectations are too high, a preemptive sell-off happens, making the actual bad news less scary when it arrives. Short-term oversold is obvious, and bearish sentiment is near extreme.
Technically, looking at the one-hour chart, the MA7 near 1240 has a death cross below the MA30 at 1346, indicating a short-term bearish setup. Although MACD remains positive at 10.19, DIF and DEA formed a high-level death cross and are diverging downward, with a volume contraction on the rebound, showing weak bullish counterattack intent. Strong support below is in the 1200 to 1230 chip concentration area, with the first resistance above at the 1300 round number.
Looking at the data side, total open interest is 186 million U, with a long-short ratio of 61.37% favoring longs, which is quite subtle. Among them, 489 traders are in profit, accounting for 77.91%, with an average entry price of 1329.4 U and current floating profit of 8.6 million U. These people are not retail traders but trend-following winners. The 576 losing traders have an average cost of 1268.97 U, with a total loss of only 1.81 million U, indicating that stop-loss selling hasn't fully cleared yet, so short-term selling pressure still needs to be digested.
My personal view: The news is bearish, but smart money's net long position shows big funds are using the panic to accumulate. However, the poor earnings guidance is a hard fact, so short-term volatility is inevitable. At this level, I lean towards light long positions but absolutely no chasing the rally. Wait for a pullback to the 1200 to 1230 support zone before considering entry; no rush to reach out. I personally still hold long options on BTC and ETH. For this kind of individual stock gamble, I'll watch first and wait for the golden pit to be dug before acting. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ I looked at Circle's Q2 earnings report together with Arc's announcement. USDC continues to expand, while Circle's ability to earn money from reserve interest has slowed down. The company urgently needs Arc to turn stablecoins from account balances into settlement tools that institutions use daily. Total revenue and reserve income for the second quarter were $701 million, up 7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $143 million, up 8% year-over-year. This result is hardly a breakdown, nor is it hard to excite the market. Stablecoin issuers, which were rapidly expanding last year, have now entered a stage where they need to prove the quality of their revenue. The most worthwhile account in the financial report comes from reserve income. In Q2, the average USDC circulating supply increased by 25% year-on-year, with reserve revenue of only $668 million, up 5% year-on-year. The reason is straightforward: the reserve yield fell by 66 basis points. Circle mainly holds cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds; the more USDC it issues, the larger its interest-generating reserves become. When U.S. Treasury yields fall, USDC of the same size brings in less revenue. The quarter-end data added another layer of pressure. USDC circulating supply was $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year, but down about 4.8% from $77 billion at the end of Q1. The average circulating volume is recorded over the past three months, with quarter-end balances closer to the starting point of the next quarter. If this gap cannot be quickly recovered, reserve income in the third quarter will simultaneously face a decline in balance and a decline in yields. Usage did not shrink along with it. USDC Q2【BTC Pre-US Market Update】Nonfarm Payroll Countdown: Checklist + Three Scenario Scripts
1. What happened this afternoon (corrections to the earlier post)
Indicator Early post forecast Actual (as of 18:00–20:00 UTC) Assessment
BTC Price Hold 64,000 $64,530–64,887, daily rise about 0.7–1.2% ✅ Held steady
65,000 Resistance Success depends on daily close Asia session surged to 68,044, closed around 66,627, sell wall pressure at 65,500 ⚠️ Did not hold above 65,000 daily line
ETF Sentiment +330 million over two days +244 million on 8/5 (third consecutive day), IBIT alone 197 million ✅ Bullish bias
Correction to earlier post: The Asia session spike was not just a "false breakout," within 4 hours 142 million short positions were liquidated (price pushed from 64,200 to 67,100), a short squeeze plus long chasing resonance, volume 22% above 30-day average, not low volume. But daily close still capped at 65,000, so the "non-unilateral" characterization remains.
2. Nonfarm 4-hour "Checklist" (save for reference)
Between 20:30 8/6 and 20:30 8/7 Beijing time, watch these 6 items:
• [ ] BTC daily close holds above 65,000 (current first hurdle, no reversal talk if not held)
• [ ] Coinbase premium remains positive (currently +0.015%, key signal if US institutions are buying)
• [ ] Whether the 65,500 sell wall is eaten (only a true breakout if broken)
• [ ] Whether the Fear & Greed Index can break out of the 25–27 extreme fear zone (currently still 25–27, price up but sentiment not recovered)
• [ ] Nonfarm readings: new jobs + unemployment rate + hourly wages (core, see three scenarios below)
• [ ] CME rate hike probability changes (currently about 54–58% chance of 25bp hike in September, will reprice after data)
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3. Three Nonfarm Scenario Scripts (written in advance to avoid panic during trading)
Announced at 20:30 Beijing time on 8/7, expected new jobs about 83,000–90,000, unemployment rate 4.2→4.3%
• 🟢 Dove surprise (new jobs < 70,000 + unemployment rate rises) → ~30% probability
Rate hike expectations cool, USD and US Treasury yields fall → BTC likely to surge with volume to 67,000–70,000, this triggers the early post "hold above 65,200 for unilateral move" condition.
• 🟡 Baseline outcome (new jobs 80,000–100,000, unemployment 4.3%) → ~45% probability
Meets expectations, no big volatility → BTC continues to consolidate at 64,000–65,000, waiting for next CPI, the most frustrating.
• 🔴 Hawkish surprise (new jobs > 100,000 + hourly wages > 0.3%) → ~25% probability
Strengthens September rate hike → USD strengthens, risk assets pressured → BTC retests 63,800→62,100 (50-day moving average).
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4. An overlooked undercurrent (discussion in comments)
• Whales are not dumping. The 16,400 BTC (1.04 billion) on 8/3 was a cold wallet migration, not into exchanges, institutional custody swap, bullish bias.
• But Binance whale inflow ratio soared to 0.52 (April high), exchanges net deposited 14,000 BTC over 5 days, East (Binance/OKX) sending coins, West (Coinbase) accumulating, East-West capital split—such splits often cause violent volatility first, then direction choice.
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My current stance: No directional bets before nonfarm, 65,000 is the watershed—hold above is bullish, fall back to 64,000 then wait for data. Tonight at 20:30 I will post a "5-minute verification post after nonfarm release," directly comparing the three scenario scripts above to judge outcome.
Comment your nonfarm reading:
A. New jobs < 70,000 (dove, I buy)
B. 80,000–100,000 (sideways, I hold)
C. > 100,000 (hawk, I reduce)
$BTC #NonfarmCountdown #ETFTripleInflow #OKXPlanet #65KWatershed
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a summary of public market/on-chain/ETF/macroeconomic data and personal structural observations as of 8/6, not investment advice; nonfarm is a high volatility event, leverage can easily liquidate, please be cautious!#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH
Breaking news: Italy's largest bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, released its Q2 13F filing last night, showing some bold moves — IBIT common stock was slashed by 93.7%, dropping from 646,800 shares down to 40,700 shares. The options side was even more aggressive, with call options corresponding to 2.5 million shares shrinking to 18,000 shares, a 99.3% cut, while simultaneously opening a new 500,000-share put option.
On the other hand, the staked Ethereum ETF (ETHB) increased from 116,200 shares to 349,600 shares, more than tripling. Bitwise's Solana staking ETF was basically liquidated, going from 2,817 shares down to just 7 shares.
But this doesn't mean they are abandoning Bitcoin. ARKB still holds 3.47 million shares valued at $67.6 million, making it their largest crypto ETF holding. The XRP trust remained unchanged, and they also opened a small position in the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust. Rather than "fleeing Bitcoin," it's more like "reallocating" — reducing IBIT while switching to a cheaper Bitcoin exposure to stay invested.
A few points are worth pondering.
First, staking yield is the core driver. Bitcoin ETFs can only profit from price volatility, while ETHB can benefit from both price appreciation and staking rewards. In an environment of falling Eurozone interest rates and narrowing bank spreads, this yield difference is indeed attractive.
Second, put options do not necessarily mean they are shorting Bitcoin. The 13F filing does not disclose short positions or the full options structure. The 500,000-share put option might be part of a collar strategy or a component of a larger volatility trade. It should not be simply interpreted as bearish.
Third, the positions as of the end of June may have already changed. 13F filings can be submitted up to 45 days after the quarter ends. Bitcoin was hovering below $30,000 for a long time then, but now it's over $60,000, so the positions may have been adjusted long ago.
The bigger significance here is that traditional financial institutions are answering the "Bitcoin or Ethereum" question with their actions. It's not an either-or choice but a refined allocation across different products. When a bank managing trillions in assets starts calculating between "holding for yield" and "pure price volatility," it shows that institutional-level crypto allocation is moving from "whether to buy" to "how to buy more cost-effectively." $BTC $ETH A financial advisor known for five years arranged a completely fake financing for him
Dow Protocol issued a statement today, laying out everything they have encountered recently. They said the circulating news that OKX Ventures invested in them is not true. The list of investors they plan to announce this week does not include this institution at all.
The more outrageous part comes later. According to the team, the origin of this incident was a financial advisor who had known them for five years. Five years is almost enough to see a full cycle of bull and bear markets in this industry. This person created a fake group chat and arranged for people to pose as members of the OKX Ventures team.
Then the whole process followed. The fake due diligence was completed step by step, the necessary questions were asked, and the required materials were provided. The forged investment agreement was signed. Then, under the pretext of this investment, they charged the project party a financial advisory fee.
If you put yourself in the project party’s position and go through this process again, you would find that each step alone looks quite normal. The introducer is an acquaintance with five years of relationship; the group includes members of the other party’s team; the due diligence is thorough; the agreement is in black and white. The cruelest part of this scheme is not how realistic the forgery is, but that it replaces all the verification anchors you could use at once.
Such incidents have not been uncommon in the past two years. What projects lack most are money and endorsement; the names of top institutions serve as both money and endorsement. Once attached, the subsequent valuation, negotiations, and community sentiment all change accordingly. Therefore, there are people who specifically monitor this area to set up schemes, and the impersonated targets are often those few most influential institutions.
As for verification, it’s actually not complicated at all. Institutions’ external investments usually have public channels—official websites, official accounts, public announcements—any of which can be cross-checked. If you want to be cautious, you can reconfirm through the official contact information publicly provided by the other party, which only takes a few minutes. The problem is, when the introducer is a friend known for five years, you feel like doing this is like slapping them in the face.
Dow Protocol said they have preserved relevant evidence and taken action against the involved personnel. They also remind other projects that even if the related personnel are introduced by long-term partners, they should independently verify identities and investment information through official channels. This sounds like a courtesy, but it is actually bought with real money.
I have always thought that the hardest thing to guard against in this industry is never technical vulnerabilities. Code can be audited, signatures can be verified, multisig can be added, hardware wallets can be replaced. But there is no auditing tool for human relationships. Trust earned over five years of friendship becomes an almost unquestioned entry point in the process, and no one dares to hit the brakes there.
So I want to ask you, if you were in that group at the time, at which step would you start to feel something was wrong? Or would you not even think in that direction at all? #1/ Midweek Hyperliquid Report
2026-08-06
Hyperliquid's HIP-3 story has crossed from sideshow to main stage: the @tradexyz builder book turned over roughly $5.27Bn in the past 24h against about $3.14Bn across every native HL perp combined, so tokenised equities, memory-chips and commodities now trade more than crypto on the venue. $SNDK alone churned 432% of its $0.18Bn OI on the day, edging $ETH by volume, and the whole turnover leaderboard is @tradexyz names.
(i) Forced flow
(ii) Funding and the algo tape
(iii) HIP-3 builder markets#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Shocked! Gold broke through the $4,200 historical high while BTC failed to follow the rally, marking a deep rift in the global capital's definition of "safe haven."
Below is a quantitative analysis and impact outlook on this divergence phenomenon:
1. Why didn't BTC follow the rally? (Three core reasons)
1) Complete shift in asset attributes: from "digital gold" back to "tech leverage"
In the 2026 market logic, BTC's correlation with Nasdaq 100 and AI core hardware like $SNDK has risen to 0.85, while its correlation with gold has dropped to 0.12. When gold surges to $4,200 due to geopolitical risks or sovereign credit crises, the market usually anticipates liquidity tightening. As a "High-Beta" risk asset, BTC is prioritized by institutions as a "cash machine" to supplement margin rather than a safe haven in such an environment.
2) Mismatch between central bank purchasing power and ETF momentum
The main force driving gold above $4,200 is the de-dollarization reserve demand from global central banks (especially "Southern countries"), which is physical and exclusive. In contrast, BTC ETF inflows mainly depend on the risk appetite of Silicon Valley and Wall Street. Today, large capital reallocations back into tech stocks like $SNDK have tightened liquidity in the tech sector, suppressing BTC's upward momentum.
3) Suppression by real interest rates and "recession trade"
Gold trading near $4,200 reflects a "deep recession" or "stagflation" scenario. If the market expects a recession, funds flow into physical gold with no default risk; meanwhile, BTC, relying on network expansion and leverage, is seen as an "overvalued experimental asset" under recession expectations, leading to net capital outflows.
2. Direct impacts of this divergence
1) Phase breakdown of the "digital gold" narrative
BTC will temporarily lose its sole justification as an "inflation hedge/safe haven." This will cause some long-term macro funds to shift positions from $BTC back to physical gold or $PAXG (gold stablecoin), further suppressing BTC's price performance.
2) Internal crypto capital flows into the RWA sector
Due to strong gold performance, capital will seek on-chain gold alternatives. You will see rising premiums on gold-pegged tokens like $PAXG and $XAUT. Meanwhile, funds will flow from pure air coins to RWA (Real World Asset) protocols backed by physical assets.
3) Forcing BTC to find new value anchors
Since it cannot follow gold, BTC will increasingly anchor to AI computing power valuation. If $NVDA or $SNDK stabilize under buyback stimulus, BTC may rebound with tech stocks, forming a "tech premium" rather than a "safe haven premium."
3. What’s next?
*Key observation points:*
*Gold:* If gold holds above $4,200 and the 10-year US Treasury yield declines, but BTC still does not rise, it confirms BTC has been kicked out of the safe haven asset list.
*BTC:* Watch turnover in the $58,500 - $62,000 range. If it falls below $58,000, it indicates capital is fully shifting to gold.
*Allocation strategy:*
*Long:* Temporarily abandon the fantasy of "taking off with gold" and focus on $SNDK's trend. Only when tech stock liquidity returns will BTC have a chance.
*Arbitrage:* Long $PAXG (gold token) / short $BTC pair trades on August 6th are highly probable institutional strategies.
Conclusion: Gold's return to $4,200 is a defensive victory of the "old world," while BTC's lagging rally is the inevitable pain of its role as "new world tech infrastructure" during liquidity contraction. Now is not the time to blindly bottom-fish BTC but to wait for a stabilization signal in the US AI hardware sector.
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
Damn! Circle just released a terrible earnings report, the numbers are a complete mess, yet the market acted like a mad dog, licking first then biting.
Stop fixating on that bullshit revenue and profit. Total revenue plus reserve income was only $701 million, up 7% year-over-year, missing Wall Street's expected $717 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $143 million, up 8%.
Net profit was $48.21 million, compared to a $480 million loss in the same period last year—this improvement is just barely climbing halfway out of the pit. Adjusted EPS was $0.18, barely beating the $0.16 estimate. USDC end-of-period circulation was 73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year but down 4.8% quarter-over-quarter from Q1, with market share dropping to 27%.
Average circulation hit a new high of 76.5 billion, with a reserve yield of 3.5%. On-chain transaction volume was 14.8 trillion, a staggering 151% year-over-year increase. Total stablecoin market cap surpassed 310 billion, but growth has collectively stalled.
Interest income is still propping up profits, but the real money rolling on-chain is shrinking. Revenue growth is entirely sustained by the interest rate environment; scale expansion? Nonsense. Circle Payments Network's annualized transaction volume is $14.7 billion, up 76% quarter-over-quarter, with 175 institutions connected. Agent Stack has over 900 paid projects, with 99.3% of x402 agent payments settled in USDC. These are just side notes.
What truly made Wall Street reprice was Arc. The public mainnet launched on September 16, with over 100 institutions and builders already testing on the private mainnet. The founding validator list is stacked: BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy, Global Payments, ICE, Mastercard, MoneyGram, SBI Group, Standard Chartered, Sumitomo Corporation, Visa.
BlackRock plans to deploy the BUIDL fund on Arc, using native USDC for subscription and redemption. DTCC plans to tokenize custody assets on this chain in the second half of 2027. The full-year other income guidance was raised from $150-170 million to $310-330 million, mainly relying on ARC token presale recognition. The federal trust bank license is also secured, with dual OCC and New York State approvals, making the compliance shell stronger.
After the earnings release, the stock price surged over 8% pre-market, then opened down nearly 3%, with some even seeing a 10% sell-off. Morgan Stanley immediately downgraded to "underweight," target price $38, citing USDC shrinkage and pressure on trading income. TD Cowen, however, rated it "buy" with a target of $82. The divergence is enough to twist your brain.
Traders on X directly pointed out: Arc mainnet on September 16 is much more powerful than it looks on the surface. Circle already has 73.3 billion circulation, 14.8 trillion transaction volume, 151% year-over-year growth, and $701 million revenue. Now it’s turning this distribution layer into exclusive financial infrastructure.
The validator list is the real signal—not just another L1 begging for attention on crypto Twitter, but a stablecoin issuer with real payment volume, institutional relationships, and regulatory positioning, building a table for settlement, tokenized assets, FX, payments, and agency business. Most L1s issue tokens first then look for demand; Arc has USDC demand first and builds the settlement layer around it.
Another harsher voice: 95% of Q2 revenue comes from USDC reserve interest. This is both a blessing and a trap. The old Circle model was super simple—more USDC equals more reserves equals more interest. Reserve yield dropped 66 basis points year-over-year to 3.5%, end-of-period circulation shrank from 7.7 billion to 7.33 billion, but average volume hit a record. The reliance is too obvious.
But the new Circle is aggressively pushing four pillars: Arc, payment network, Agent Stack, and regulated infrastructure. ARC token presale revenue has already been booked, full-year other income guidance doubled, with about $180 million from presales. The transformation isn’t complete, old business is still paying, but the direction is crystal clear—from making money lying down to making money from the entire financial network’s liquidity.
Some criticize the market for short-sightedness: stop arguing over quarterly revenue; what really matters is how USDC is used. Transaction volume, tokenized assets, AI payments, and regulated financial infrastructure are all compounding. Stablecoins are becoming the operating system of digital finance, not just digital dollars.
Arc’s launch means Wall Street has officially set up a new table on-chain, pushing stablecoin settlement, tokenized assets, and institutional financial infrastructure simultaneously. This is a long-term positive for crypto, but don’t expect it to immediately save pure hardware narratives like SanDisk. The storage sector still depends on AI demand and supply shortages; Arc changes the settlement layer, not the compute layer. Don’t mix short-term fundamentals with long-term narratives in trading, or you’ll cry over losses with no sympathy.
Short-term circulation decline is reality, but the track Arc opens is several orders of magnitude higher than the retail market ceiling. Circle isn’t betting on quarterly circulation; it’s betting on Wall Street’s underlying clearing system.
USDC is set to evolve from an exchange retail toy to the base currency for inter-institutional settlement and tokenized asset circulation. That’s the real growth engine. Can it deliver? Watch three things: sustained USDC volume growth, expansion of payment subscription revenue, and continued margin improvement.
If these three rise together, the fundamentals have truly turned. Otherwise, it’s just a bunch of pretty PPTs and validator lists, ultimately the same old interest-supported routine.🚨 EVERYONE IS CELEBRATING.
I'M WATCHING THE TRAP.
$SPCX just posted strong earnings.
Revenue: +92%
AI revenue: +247%
Double beat.
The stock exploded.
Exactly the reaction I expected.
But almost nobody is asking the only question that matters:
Why did it move so violently?
Here's the answer.
Right now, only ~5% of SpaceX shares are actually tradable.
The other 95% are locked.
That's why every wave of buying sends the price flying.
And that's also why this rally could be far more fragile than people think.
On August 6, everything changes.
Around 900 million shares become eligible for trading.
For comparison:
The current tradable float is only ~638 million shares.
Now add another piece of the puzzle.
34% of the float is sold short.
That's a huge reason this rally accelerated.
Shorts were fighting for a tiny supply of shares.
But once the unlock arrives...
That supply shortage starts disappearing.
Shorts suddenly have far more liquidity.
The dynamic that fueled this squeeze changes overnight.
Most people are chasing the earnings headline.
I'm watching what happens after the headlines fade.
That's usually where the real opportunity begins.
Bookmark this post.
Let's see where $SPCX is trading after the unlock.#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Unitree is about to publicly issue shares and get listed, with the subscription date on August 10, 2026. Rumors online say one lot can earn 200,000!
HIP-3 decentralized trading platform Trade has launched Unitree Technology (Unitree) pre-IPO perpetual contracts, currently priced at $69, corresponding to a post-listing market value of about $27.9 billion.
Additionally, HYPE has also launched Unitree Technology (Unitree) pre-IPO perpetual contracts, currently priced around $68.8.
The current contract price implies a market value of $27.9 billion, approximately ¥190.6 billion RMB. Unitree's IPO prospectus targets an issuance valuation of about ¥42 billion RMB (approximately $5.8-6.2 billion), expecting a 4.5x return on new shares after the opening.
Last time, Changxin's short selling attempt failed. This time, however, I noticed the shorting willingness is very strong, causing account funding fees losses to exceed contract losses. So this time, short selling must be done cautiously. Circulation is about 10%, with high control again, and retail investors will likely be forced to take over shares passively. It's still better to wait until before the large block of shares is unlocked to short.How to say, brothers $SNDK
SanDisk is taking revenge tonight! Short it below 1200!
Let it be arrogant, it beat me back and forth yesterday!
Look at the pre-market trend, it won't escape breaking 1200 tonight
And!
Tonight will most likely continue last night's decline
Some are still blaming the earnings, but it has nothing to do with the earnings
Because next quarter's revenue guidance is below expectations
Gross margin guidance is falling
Plus Google's tech big shot leaving directly impacts the sector
Although there is good news of a $14 billion buyback
But the whole storage sector sentiment is very bad, under heavy pressure
So it will rise at the open then continue to fall...
So you must short it below 1200!
Let me take the lead position first, wait for a good price to add more.
Wishing those shorting SanDisk tonight a big profit!
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $SPCX
Tonight $SPCX faces the first wave of large-scale unlocking
Early employees and pre-IPO investors can finally sell tonight
About 912 million shares will be unlocked tonight,
which is 1.4 times the approximately 639 million publicly tradable shares at the time of the IPO.
The circulating supply will double overnight.
Is it possible for the stock price to drop below 100 tonight? Another 915 million shares will be unlocked on the 21st of this month.
If it falls below 100 tonight, plus the next wave of unlocking on the 21st, the market could very likely experience panic selling.
If it really crashes, I will consider selling Puts.
If the stock price is above the strike price at expiration, the options expire worthless, and I can keep the premium.
If panic selling occurs, I can also acquire shares at a discount.Gold Falls from $5600 Throne: As U.S. Treasury Yields Approach 4.7%, the Safe-Haven Halo Must Yield
In January this year, gold prices surged to a historic peak of $5600 per ounce amid various geopolitical conflicts, leading everyone to believe that gold would become the ultimate safe haven in an era of fiat currency collapse. However, by early August, gold had fallen amid volatility and was stuck tightly in a narrow range between $4000 and $4100. Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury steadily rose to a high level between 4.6% and 4.7%. These two seemingly unrelated price figures conceal a harsh financial truth: when risk-free U.S. Treasuries can offer an annualized yield close to 4.7%, the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, becomes extremely expensive.
Gold’s safe-haven attribute is not an unconditional law; its core historical pricing logic actually reflects the "real interest rate."
Simply put, the real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations. At the beginning of this year, with market concerns about high inflation and bets on global liquidity easing, real interest rates were extremely low, which pushed up gold’s premium. But in the second half of the year, the situation reversed: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh made multiple hawkish remarks, and market pricing began to factor in possible rate hikes, pushing nominal Treasury yields up to a high of 4.7%, while inflation expectations were suppressed. Under this dual pressure, real interest rates rose strongly, directly draining long liquidity from the gold market. For large investors, it is irrational in asset allocation to forgo the 4.7% risk-free Treasury yield to hold gold at a high price that pays no interest. I myself have fallen into a similar trap in previous large gold trades, focusing only on the geopolitical gunfire and rushing in, while ignoring the invisible giant hand of Treasury yields. When yields rise, the geopolitical safe-haven premium evaporates instantly like moisture.
Of course, my current bearish logic that real interest rates suppress gold could fail due to some extreme variables.
If the geopolitical situation in the Middle East or Eurasia escalates uncontrollably, or if in October the financial system reveals some hidden bad debt problems causing global central banks to launch a new round of gold buying at any cost, then safe-haven sentiment will once again overwhelm the real interest rate valuation model, and gold will regain upward momentum. Over the next two months, I will closely watch the battle to defend the $4000 level. If gold is heavily sold through the $4000 mark, I will firmly maintain my view of a medium-term gold correction; if it holds here on low volume and is accompanied by a peak and decline in Treasury yields, I will consider reestablishing a long-term position. SanDisk's earnings report was explosive, but the stock fell 8% after hours — another case of "expectation gap"
---
Looking only at revenue, profit, and earnings, each metric is explosive.
But after hours, it dropped 8% at one point.
The problem lies in the guidance.
SanDisk's revenue guidance for the next quarter is $10.3–10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion. Analysts expected $11.16 billion — a full $600 million difference.
It's the old story of "guidance falling short of expectations" again. Palantir just went through this a few days ago, and now SanDisk is repeating it.
The market logic now is straightforward: the current quarter's numbers are just the entry ticket; the guidance sets the price. It doesn't matter that you earned $8.9 billion in the past three months; what matters is how much you say you can earn next.
Good performance is expected; anything less is your fault. SanDisk did nothing wrong; it's just that market expectations ran too fast. The last earnings report set the ceiling too high, so even a slight miss this time is not accepted.
What about the $10 billion buyback? The market didn't care either.
Previously, buybacks = positive news; now buybacks might be interpreted as "the company also thinks the stock price isn't great." In an environment dominated by "expectation gaps," no matter how large the buyback, it can't withstand guidance that's "slightly below expectations."
---
But the long-term logic remains intact:
· AI inference scale is still expanding, with customer orders locked in for the next four years
· The HBF standard was just released, and SanDisk is one of the leading parties
· The global NAND market is expected to approach $500 billion by 2027
These are big trends that a single quarter's earnings report can't change.
---
In the end:
SanDisk delivered an explosive earnings report, but the market wants even more explosive guidance.
The stock price fell because the market is saying: "You're great, but I want to hear you say the future will be even better, and you didn't say enough."
Once short-term sentiment is digested, what should rise will still rise.
---
What do you think? Is it an opportunity or a risk? Let's discuss in the comments👇
#SNDK #SanDisk #EarningsAnalysis #AIStorage #USStocks
$SNDKU.S. stocks were mixed pre-market, with the S&P 500 +0.1% and Nasdaq -0.6% amid tech stock weakness, as investors awaited a U.S.-Iran peace deal and Friday’s jobs data. Brent crude rose 1% to $80/bbl; gold gained. Notable movers included $SKHY -6%, $MU -4%, and $SPCX +2% ahead of lockup expiration. $GOOG and $META have now recovered all of their earnings-related losses. Bloomberg has reported that President Trump has maintained unprecedented frequent contact with Fed Chair Warsh since his Senate confirmation. S&P 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $347 (+26% YoY), implying a 22.3x P/E, putting the S&P 500 forward earnings yield below the 10-yr treasury yield for the first time since early-2024 and before that the 2000 dot-com bubble. I remain cautious on Tesla due to declining earnings estimates, the likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a seemingly excessive valuation. For more detail, see my daily pre-mkt summary for Subscribers.#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查
Trump's meme coin is in trouble again.
Senators Warren and Blumenthal formally sent a letter to SEC Chair Atkins on Monday, requesting an investigation into whether the TRUMP token involves fraud or improper gains. The letter directly labels it as a "potential illegal scam" and even uses the term "Rug Pull."
Nansen data shows that as of the end of June, about 989,000 accounts holding TRUMP tokens suffered losses, accounting for two-thirds of all buyers, with cumulative losses of $3.81 billion. The coin has dropped from a peak of $73.43 to $1.47 now, and its market cap has shrunk from $9 billion to less than $400 million.
Trump's 2025 financial disclosure reveals he earned about $636 million from this meme coin business. While 980,000 people lost $3.8 billion collectively, he alone made $636 million.
The impact on the crypto space can be viewed in three layers.
First, regulatory risks for the meme coin sector have been reignited. The SEC issued guidance in February this year stating meme coins generally are not securities. Warren's letter challenges this boundary. If the SEC opens an investigation, the entire meme coin sector will be reexamined. If nothing happens, it effectively means politicians can freely issue coins to exploit retail investors, which is a far more serious issue than the TRUMP token itself.
Second, the battle over the CLARITY Act becomes more complicated. Warren's timing is no coincidence; the bill negotiations are stuck on ethics provisions—prohibiting senior government officials from directly engaging in crypto projects. Trump's meme coin is a live target, used by Democrats as leverage. If the bill is delayed further because of this, it will be a loss for the entire crypto industry.
Third, the matter of politicians issuing coins will eventually be reckoned with. If not today, then tomorrow. If not the SEC, then Congress. With 980,000 people losing $3.8 billion, someone has to be held accountable.
My view is clear—the SEC will delay, but Congress will not let it go.
The SEC currently refuses to comment, and the White House has pushed the issue to the Trump Organization. The SEC is unlikely to act proactively but will decide when congressional pressure becomes strong enough. However, the Senate Democrats have already made their move; this matter will not end quietly. After Trump leaves office, related investigations will only increase.
Trump himself responded in July saying, "I do not participate in personal finances; a fund manages my money," and that the $636 million went into his pocket but he is "not sure" about the details. How long this explanation holds is something to watch. This letter itself will not immediately trigger regulatory action, but it is a clear signal—the wild west approach of meme coins is running out of time.
$BICO $SNDK $BTC #SandiskBeatAndBuyback Sandisk beat expectations, announced another $14B buyback… and still fell after hours 😅
Q4 revenue hit $8.97B with adjusted EPS of $39.25, but softer Q1 guidance spoiled the party. Classic market behavior: yesterday’s beat matters less than tomorrow’s outlook 📉
AI storage demand clearly isn’t the problem anymore. Now it’s all about whether NAND pricing and high-bandwidth flash demand can justify the valuation.
Big buyback, cautious guidance — which signal are you trusting more? 👀#ADPCoolsFedSplit #ADPCoolsFedSplit #SandiskBeatAndBuyback SNDK｜Perfect score on the earnings report, but the stock price asks: Are there any bonus questions?
Last night, SNDK delivered a very strong report card: quarterly revenue of about $8.97 billion, a year-over-year increase of 372%. However, the stock price did not immediately take off after hours; instead, it fluctuated back and forth. I made a small long position before the earnings report, initially with a nice floating profit, but I didn’t take profits in time and ended up only making enough for a cup of coffee. The market is clearly not satisfied with "good performance" alone; it is questioning whether the next quarter can continue to exceed expectations.
Fundamentally, AI servers are driving up NAND demand; SanDisk has also partnered with SK Hynix to release the HBF open standard, with a maximum capacity of 512GB and bandwidth up to 3TB/s, aiming to capture a new position between HBM and SSD. However, the stock price has already risen significantly in the earlier phase, so valuation, profit realization, and future guidance are the real battlegrounds today.
My strategy is to watch the highs and lows after the earnings report: follow if it breaks the high, exit if it breaks the low, and avoid repeatedly paying fees in the middle range with the main players. Do you think SNDK is using the good news to unload shares, or is it gearing up for the next AI storage rally? $SNDK $BTC
#SNDK #SanDisk #AIStorage #USStocks This is not investment advice.The market was very quiet today, so quiet it felt almost unreal. BTC kept hovering above 64,000, closing near 64,600. It rose slightly intraday, ETH stood above the 1900 level. Most mainstream stocks saw slight broad gains, no sharp rallies or plunge. It's that kind of calm sideways movement that makes people feel uneasy. Why is it so weak? Because everyone is waiting for Friday's nonfarm payrolls. The expectation is only 75,000 new USD, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3. At the last meeting, three Fed chairs directly advocated for rate hikes, the most hawkish since the 2022 round. To put it plainly, The money that was betting too much on rate cuts before has quietly started to take a hit this week. The market's sideways movement isn't without direction; it's because no one dares to speak before the data comes out. It's like sitting together on a blind date without ordering food for half a day, waiting for the other person to speak first. But one thing hasn't stopped: the infusion of funds from ETFs. On August 4, spot Bitcoin ETFs bought another $211 million, while BlackRock alone took 170 million. This is the first time since May that BTC has broken 200 million BTC in a single day. The steady 64,000 BTC is not due to buying hype, but because of the institutional blood supply So, today's market summary can be summed up in one sentence: sentiment is waiting, funds are entering the market, two forces are tug-of-war, neither has won. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the real test is Friday in the non-farm payrolls. If the data is unexpectedly strong and rate hike expectations heat up, crypto is a risk asset prone to short-term misexecution; if the data is weak, rate cut expectations return, and a rebound is imminent. This is a binary gamble—don't be clever and blindly bet on direction$BEAT dropped a lot. I've wanted to write about this coin for a long time, but recently I've been busy trading other coins and haven't had the energy to analyze it. Seeing it drop today, I'm wondering if there's a chance to buy the dip. But unfortunately, I watched it over and over many times, and I felt that going long now was too risky. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that since 12:00, its contract open interest has been continuously increasing. However, its contract long-short ratio does not change that much. Its contract long-short ratio shows a process of first declining and then rising. At this moment, its contract long-short ratio is lower than at the beginning. Personally, I infer that at this level, some bulls are bottom-fishing, while others are taking profits. However, these bottom-fishing bulls are not as strong as the remaining bulls. In other words, the current rebound is very likely just a bullish lure halfway up the mountain. I don't dare go in to get in any more right now. —————————————————— For me, $BEAT direction is unclear right now. If you act without a clear direction, you are very likely to be killed by both bulls and bears. Why do I say this? I don't know if anyone has had this experience. When trading a coin, you initially think it will rise, then go long, but it ends up dropping a lot. At that point, you start doubting yourself and start chasing shorts, only for it to rise again. I used to do this kind of thing all the time. So,#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
Daily review of loss orders, day eight
🚨Explosive! SanDisk's earnings beat expectations on both fronts🔥 Lavishes $14 billion on buybacks, so why did the stock price plunge?
📊Key earnings data📈
▪️Q4 revenue: $8.97 billion, soaring 372% year-over-year✅
▪️Gross margin: 84.6%, a record high💎
▪️New buyback authorization: $14 billion, total remaining buyback capacity reaches $15.5 billion💰
▪️Data center business surged 1298% year-over-year, AI storage becomes the growth engine⚡
Last night, storage leader SanDisk delivered a report far exceeding Wall Street expectations, with revenue and profits both significantly outperforming market forecasts. Meanwhile, the board decisively approved a new $14 billion stock buyback plan, sending a strong confidence signal to the market with real cash.
The buyback means the company holds massive cash flow and will continue repurchasing its own shares in the secondary market, reducing outstanding shares and boosting earnings per share, providing strong support for the mid-to-long-term stock price. Last quarter, SanDisk already completed $4.5 billion in buybacks.
Moreover, the company holds 8 long-term supply agreements guaranteeing $93.9 billion in revenue, with most capacity already pre-committed by cloud providers, greatly reducing the cyclical risk in the storage industry.
But a surreal scene unfolded: despite the positive news, the stock price fell nearly 8% in after-hours trading📉.
The core contradiction lies not in the already delivered stellar results but in the future growth guidance. The company’s next quarter revenue and EPS guidance are slightly below the market’s feverish expectations.
Capital markets buy future growth; no matter how explosive past results are, if future growth falls short of expectations, funds will choose to take profits, triggering the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario.
💡Market thoughts:
Massive buybacks serve as a mid-to-long-term buffer to curb irrational crashes but cannot forcibly reverse short-term downtrends. The big AI storage cycle logic remains intact, but the market has shifted from blind optimism to a phase of high expectation verification.
In the short term, it depends on capital sentiment and game theory; in the long term, it depends on whether NAND chip prices and real AI server demand can continue to exceed expectations.
With explosive earnings combined with a $10+ billion buyback, do you think SanDisk’s move this time is an opportunity or a trap? $BTC stabilizes above $64,000, with the core conflict lying between the bullish divergence of the weekly RSI near 39.30 and the exhaustion of volume on the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern since March.
The spot price maintains a wide oscillation between $60,965 and $66,885, with a 1.91% increase on August 5 confirming a short-term stabilization. The $61,900 level acts as the lower boundary support; if broken, it would mean the breakdown of the oscillation structure, and the downside support would shift down to $54,000.
On the driving force front, the spot ETF recorded a net inflow exceeding $170 million on August 4, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $111.43 million, easing spot selling pressure. However, resistance comes from the Senate bill, the volatility in U.S. stocks caused by SpaceX unlocking, and the theft of 1,755 bitcoins due to the Coldcard hacker attack, all collectively forming upward resistance.
The bullish scenario triggers if the price effectively holds above $64,000 and pushes toward $66,885. It is necessary to observe whether ETF net inflows can maintain above the hundred-million level to compensate for the shrinking rebound volume. If the price falls below the $61,900 support, the bullish projection is invalidated.
The bearish scenario triggers if the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations combined with U.S. stock volatility spillover cause the price to break below $61,900. The variable to watch is whether self-custody security concerns accelerate selling volume. If the price forcibly breaks through and holds above $66,885, the bearish scenario immediately fails.
The oscillation scenario remains within the $60,965 to $66,885 range, reflecting a balance between institutional buying and the seasonal weakness effect in August. Within this range, the weekly RSI divergence will continue to provide stabilization signals but cannot independently drive a trend breakout.
The most critical variables to observe over the next 7 days are whether the daily net inflow of spot ETFs can be maintained and whether the price can complete chip consolidation above the key $61,900 support level.
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 #内存卖方市场延续，韩股能否迎来反转？#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Candlesticks, candlesticks, candlesticks, important things said three times.
The kind with a long real body, short shadows, and a closing price stubbornly holding at the high. I don't really trust anything else; golden crosses and death crosses, anyone can talk about them after they happen, but before that, it's all guessing. Candlesticks are built with money, and that can't be faked.
What counts as good? A few points:
· Long real body, short shadows. This shows the bulls are serious, not just testing the waters and running.
· Closing price holds steady. Some bullish candles look strong but close halfway back down; avoid those early because they usually weaken the next day.
· The position matters. After months of sideways trading, a bullish candle that breaks open the upper boundary—that's the one I'm most willing to follow.
I used to make a mistake—when a bullish candle appeared, I always thought "wait for a pullback to enter," but then I’d watch it rally all the way up and never come back. Later, I changed my rule: when a big bullish candle breaks a key level, get in first, set the stop loss just below the candle’s low, and the loss won’t be too bad.
Of course, sometimes you get hit, but overall, the profits outweigh the losses, which is enough. What do you look at when spotting a trend start? Share in the comments.👇 Good news from Circle:
Just announced, traditional financial institutions such as BlackRock, Mastercard, Visa, and Standard Chartered Bank have officially joined its own Arc blockchain as founding validator nodes.
The public mainnet is scheduled to launch on September 16, with a clear focus: specifically serving stablecoins and tokenized assets.
This is not just "a few more institutions endorsing it." Validator nodes directly participate in network security and governance, meaning these giants are staking their reputation and operational capabilities on this chain.
BlackRock also plans to deploy the BUIDL fund, using native USDC for subscription and redemption, aiming to minimize friction in institutional capital inflows and outflows.
What’s truly worth noting is that $CRCL is embedding traditional financial compliance and trust requirements directly into the blockchain’s foundation by having institutions act as validators themselves.
Many public chains in the past relied on anonymous nodes or simple token incentives, which institutions found untrustworthy;
Arc this time brings names like BlackRock, Visa, and Standard Chartered together to guard the gate, effectively lowering the psychological barrier for institutional entry.
The competition in stablecoins and RWAs has shifted from "who issues more tokens" to "who can truly onboard large traditional capital."
The chain itself is just infrastructure; the real determinant of success is who can get institutions to put their money and business processes on it.
There may be short-term hype, but in the long run, those that remain will be networks that genuinely reduce institutional usage costs.
In summary: institutions willing to act as validators themselves show they are no longer mere bystanders but are starting to treat this chain as their own settlement layer. #Gold returns to $4,200, why hasn't BTC followed suit?
Gold $XAU surged to $4,200, silver broke through $62, but Bitcoin $BTC still remained around $64,000 to $65,000. This reflects not the failure of digital gold, but the reorientation of funds.
Currently, the biggest characteristic of the market is that hot money is still concentrated in the US stock market, especially in the direction of AI and technology stocks. In contrast, the liquidity in the cryptocurrency circle is obviously insufficient, and funds have not flowed back to the cryptocurrency market on a large scale.
Since the beginning of this year, US tech giants have proven with their performance that AI commercialization is being implemented, and funds are willing to pay for growth. Gold has benefited from expectations of interest rate cuts and risk aversion, becoming a defensive choice for funds. Bitcoin is sandwiched in the middle, lacking the strong safe-haven attributes of gold, and temporarily lacking the clear profit story of the US stock market, so funds choose to wait and see.
Bitcoin is like a highly powerful sports car, but now most of the fuel on the track has been sucked away by this car in the US stock market. Only when the upward space of US stocks narrows, or when the Federal Reserve truly enters a easing cycle and the market looks for new high-yield assets, can funds flow back into the currency circle.
So now it's not easy to say that BTC has lost the digital gold narrative, it's more accurate to say that funds haven't rotated to it yet.
Each round of market trends follows a sequence, with certain assets attracting funds first, followed by risky assets taking over. Gold has already started, US stocks are in a frenzy, and Bitcoin may still be waiting for the next wave of liquidity.
The above is just a personal opinion!$XAU Low volatility is not a safety signal; it is a precursor to risk building up.
BTC has been pinned around $64,638 for nearly two weeks, with daily volatility struggling to reach even 1%. The market appears calm on the surface, but the spring is compressed to its limit.
Volume has shrunk by 51.3%, open interest (OI) is frozen at 107,400, the funding rate remains neutral at +0.0051%, and the fear index is 27—these four data points are all flat, with both bulls and bears collectively lying low. This does not mean risk has disappeared; it means risk has not yet been triggered.
Breadth is 6:8 with more declines than rises, but OI remains high and frozen, indicating leverage is suspended mid-air. The sideways price action is only because stop-loss levels have not been hit, not because the market structure is healthy.
The most crowded trade currently is the put option strategy in this low volatility environment. Everyone is betting on continued calm, but once a breakout occurs, gamma scalpers and short-covering will trigger a chain reaction, with naked put sellers becoming the first wave of victims.
Here are three judgment criteria:
① Price pinned within a ±1% range for more than N days → spring is fully compressed
② OI does not decrease and remains frozen at a high level → leverage is suspended, breakout is the starting point of a stampede
③ If choosing puts, you must buy far-dated insurance hedges; never naked sell to bet on direction
My GRVT long at 0.32364 at 06:56 was stopped out with a -5.34% loss, then recovered to 0.30708, currently still down -0.33%—the spring has loosened, and the first to get hit are those of us who can’t resist trading.
In a dead market, sellers collecting rent seem relaxed; when the spring releases, naked sellers will be the first casualties. Watch closely tomorrow to see if OI loosens—that will be the real signal.
$BTC $GRVT Xinhua's report on the Strait of Hormuz contains quite a lot of information
1. It confirms that the new management agreement for the strait is close to being reached. Iran has implicitly accepted that commercial navigation will resume in the future, and Oman's role has shifted from regional mediator to shipping agent (aligned with the US), raising expectations for navigation through the strait.
2. The closure of the two old shipping lanes does not mean a complete closure of the strait, but rather a breaking of the rules and the establishment of new lanes (as shown in Figure 2).
3. The core change in the lanes is a shift in control, which overturns the previous 60 years of lane rules. Previously, commercial ships entering the lanes actually used the international lane on Oman's side. Iran opposed this, arguing it did not reflect Iran's sovereignty over the northern shore lanes. Therefore, the new lanes partially pass through Iranian territorial waters.
This means Iran's shipping management rights, toll collection rights, and law enforcement rights are potentially all enhanced. Simply put, the new lanes give Iran something it never had before.
4. It emphasizes a 2-4 month validity period for the lanes, which is the most important point. I believe this implies two things:
a. The lane plan is not mature and will need to be adjusted over time to gradually form a more complete and mature set of lane rules.
b. Iran's optimistic buffer with the US is around the midterm elections, i.e., 2-4 months. Once Trump completes the midterms, regardless of the outcome, he will likely turn his attention back to Iran.
5. The last sentence is crucial. Previously, Iran never admitted to restarting negotiations under US pressure, but the current statements clearly lay the groundwork for a return to the negotiating table.
Follow-up focus:
The next key points to watch are, first, when the strait rules will be officially announced, and second, when the US and Iran will officially confirm the restart of negotiations, including the timing and location.
Regarding crude oil prices, the downward trend is expected to continue. For US oil, watch the support around 75. Once the strait rules are confirmed and US-Iran negotiations restart, if prices remain stable above 70, I will exit my short positions. Conversely, if prices quickly fall below 70, I am optimistic about a drop to 65 or even lower! #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地 Main Capital
The total market turnover in 24 hours is $1.22B, with BTC alone accounting for 22.7%, indicating that funds are still clustering in large coins for risk aversion.
The top 5 gainers' combined turnover is $11.51M, accounting for 0.9% of the total market, clearly showing the proportion of smart money in offensive positions.
The top 5 losers' combined turnover is $368.16M, accounting for 30.1% of the total market, with selling pressure concentrated in a few coins, not a full-scale retreat.
Top 3 smart money buys: $BICO turnover $5.29M +22.08%, $ACT turnover $1.18M +11.56%, $RESOLV turnover $1.26M +8.15%.
Top 3 smart money sells: $GRVT turnover $333.62M -16.54%, $XSNDK turnover $24.19M -12.73%, $FET turnover $941,250 -8.66%.
Signal: Defensive turnover is more than 1.3 times the offensive turnover, with smart money actively selling dominating; don't catch a falling knife with your own money.
In short: Capital speaks most honestly, follow the direction of turnover, don't imagine the market yourself.
Market data comes from OKX public API and does not constitute any investment advice.
The principle is clear, the rest depends on execution. According to the script where gold rises, oil falls, and the non-farm payrolls are weak, the probability of a rate hike has now been pushed down.
The Federal Reserve may indeed be unable to truly raise or lower rates (at least in the short term, even if there is a hike in September, there is still more than a month left), mainly relying on expectations to adjust the market. When storage is too hot, it raises rate hike expectations; after a round of bubble bursting, it lowers rate hike expectations and raises rate cut expectations.
Especially after Lee Jae-myung signed a 950 billion deal with Samsung and SK Hynix along with major US companies, the original loophole of US capital outflow was closed. Samsung and SK Hynix re-entered the game of passing the hot potato with the money they earned, turning a small cycle into a large cycle. This way, the bubble can continue for a while longer; otherwise, the previous cycle with only US manufacturers would have worn out too much.
Following this logic, it is reasonable to infer that tomorrow night’s major non-farm payroll data should continue to suppress rate hike expectations. After all, everyone who understands the current US data quality knows it can be released as needed, with downward revisions later if necessary.
In this case, the US stock market, which has already experienced a bubble burst, will not undergo a one-sided decline. It will likely continue to move in a zigzag pattern as previously mentioned, with the market starting to diverge and volatility varying according to each company’s fundamentals.
For oil prices to rebound again, the US military needs to physically accumulate another batch of ammunition, and the July CPI data on August 12 must first pass the danger period. Calculating this, a consolidation period of about a month similar to the previous decline is more appropriate. $XAUT $CL #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地