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SanDisk (shturl.) 2026.08.07 Intraday Operation Strategy
I. Core Current Review (After US Market Close on August 6)
1. Closing Price: $1258.58, a sharp single-day drop of 6.81%, with huge intraday volatility; the lowest intraday dip reached $1163.09, with a slight recovery at the close
2. Core Logic Behind the Decline
- Earnings report was positive but next quarter revenue guidance fell short of market optimistic expectations, a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario; Citibank and Jefferies simultaneously downgraded target prices, weakening institutional sentiment
- Significant gains in the first half of the year, valuation at historical highs, profit-taking concentrated, storage sector collectively devalued (Micron, SK Hynix, Western Digital all sharply down)
- Fed officials released hawkish signals, raising rate hike expectations; high-valuation tech growth stocks under pressure; rising US Treasury yields suppress storage sector valuations
- Medium to long-term concerns: Korean manufacturers massively expanding NAND production, expectations of flash supply surplus in 2027 rising, market worries about sustaining ultra-high gross margins
3. Key Technical Price Levels
- Strong Resistance: $1324 (yesterday's intraday high, bearish watershed; failure to hold above keeps weak trend intact)
- First Support: $1250 (near current closing price, battleground for bulls and bears intraday)
- Strong Support: $1163 (yesterday's low, critical defense level for this decline; breaking below opens deeper downside)
II. Three US Market Scenarios for August 7
1) Conservative Wait-and-See Approach (Recommended Priority, Suitable for General Investors)
Short-term downtrend channel is clear; institutions downgraded target prices + sector sentiment weakened, no rush to bottom-fish.
- For holders: Gradually reduce positions in the $1300–1324 range on rebounds to avoid weekend uncertainties; if intraday breaks below $1163 with volume surge, fully exit to avoid risk.
- For non-holders: Do not bottom-fish prematurely; wait for one of two signals before considering entry: ① volume-supported hold above $1324; ② pullback to $1163 without breaking and clear capital support.
2) Short-term Bearish Strategy (High Risk, Only for Short-term Traders)
Focus on shorting on rebound resistance
- Entry range: Short in batches in the $1290–1320 rebound resistance zone
- Stop loss: Above $1330 (if breaks yesterday's high, bearish logic invalid)
- Targets: First $1250, second $1180, extreme $1163
3) Short-term Rebound Play (Very Small Position, Speculating on Oversold Recovery)
Only attempt small long positions if price dips near $1163 at open without new lows and intraday volume shrinks
- Entry: Light long positions in the $1165–1175 range
- Stop loss: Exit if effectively breaks below $1160
- Target: $1230–1250, take profit immediately upon reaching resistance, no long-term holding #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
Weak employment clashes with the "hawkish" iron wall, 55% chance of a rate hike in September! Tonight's nonfarm payrolls will decide life or death
Brothers, the market sentiment tonight is very conflicted. On one side, ADP "unexpectedly" hits a new low for the year, while on the other, the Federal Reserve is hawkish, with the probability of a September rate hike directly hitting 55%. The market's biggest dilemma now is: can weak employment suppress stubborn inflation?
1. The hawkish "iron curtain" has already been drawn
This is not just talk. St. Louis Fed President Bullard clearly expressed a preference for a rate hike, and even the previously silent Fed Chair Powell has been reported to be ready to press the rate hike button in September if inflation remains hot in the coming weeks.
Kashkari was more direct: better to take small, quick rate hikes now than slam the brakes hard after inflation gets out of control. There is huge division within the FOMC now, with 3 voting members already opposing and advocating immediate rate hikes. This is not a simulation; it is a real risk of policy shift.
2. The other side of "weak employment" — the ghost of stagflation
Yesterday's data was interesting: July ADP job additions were only 44,000, far below the previous value; the ISM services employment sub-index directly fell into contraction territory (47.4).
But strangely, the prices paid index soared to 70.3. What does this mean? Employment is cooling down, but service sector costs are still skyrocketing. This is the Fed's biggest fear: signs of stagflation — weakening economic momentum but inflation stubbornly high.
3. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls (20:30) "scenario" simulation
The market expects an increase of 83,000 jobs, unemployment rate at 4.2%. Tonight is "data decides direction":
Scenario A (bearish for gold/non-USD): Nonfarm data exceeds expectations (e.g., over 100,000) with strong wages. Then the market will fully price in a September rate hike. The dollar and US Treasury yields will soar together, and gold may directly break through the critical 4250 support level.
Scenario B (bullish for gold/non-USD): Nonfarm significantly below expectations. The market will briefly trade "recession + rate hike pause." But remember, this may be a short honeymoon period because as long as inflation remains high, the Fed won't easily turn dovish.
My view:
At this point, don't easily bet that "weak employment can force the Fed to surrender." The Fed's bottom line now is inflation credibility, having missed the 2% target for 5 consecutive years, they can't afford to lose. If tonight's data doesn't sharply "surprise to the downside," bulls need to be extra cautious.
Tonight's nonfarm will reveal the truth. Control your positions and wait for direction. 📊 $SPCX Liquidation Flash Report (August 7)
According to liquidation data, short-term longs were crushed mercilessly, but long-term shorts suffered a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $41,900
Long liquidations about $41,900
Short liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $82,500
Long liquidations about $47,100
Short liquidations about $35,400
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $1,242,300
Long liquidations about $251,200
Short liquidations about $991,100
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $6,700,200
Long liquidations about $3,098,200
Short liquidations about $3,602,000
From the $SPCX liquidation data, in the 1-hour window, long liquidations crushed shorts with shorts at zero, indicating a fierce long liquidation blitz at the start; in 4 hours, the long advantage sharply narrowed to a 1.33x ratio, showing a significant short squeeze force; in 12 hours, the direction completely reversed with short liquidations crushing longs at 3.94 times the amount, indicating a full short squeeze outbreak; in 24 hours, short liquidations still lead at 1.16 times the longs. The market makers on SPCX completed a brutal turnaround from long liquidation to short squeeze — short-term longs were targeted and destroyed, mid-to-long-term shorts were wiped out, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $6.7 million. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a "fully priced expectations, flaws are fatal" phase — "exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be magnified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Bigger the Boom, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, a 372% year-over-year surge; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a 557% year-over-year increase.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% in after-hours trading. The culprit was guidance — next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the performance is" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real — as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged a 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, so any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016 — three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months — the classic stagflation signal of "weak employment, strong prices." The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Lockup Expiry: A Classic Case of "Bad News Priced In"
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% post-earnings plunge on Wednesday had already priced in the lockup pressure; new selling was effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic script of "bad news priced in equals good news." However, the alert is not over — another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on lockup day played out the classic "bad news priced in" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified — old logics are collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ August 7 Major Events
Event 1: Last night, the US stock market showed all red signals, especially in the tech sector. It's hardly about technology anymore; the narrative no longer seeks technological iteration but just aims to sell everything off before prices drop to bargain levels.
Event 2: Yesterday, the US and Japan jointly intervened to support the yen exchange rate, but due to the Federal Reserve's large funding gap, it couldn't absorb nearly a hundred billion USD in sell orders, basically confirming the intervention failed. The chain reaction is that Japan, as a major player, might choose to massively sell US Treasuries to save its domestic economy, triggering consequences far exceeding the 2008 subprime crisis. Moreover, this time the Fed holds a large amount of US debt and cannot transfer the debt.
Event 3: Expectations for Fed rate hikes are rising, siphoning global USD back to the US to maintain liquidity in US stocks; meanwhile, the seven major US tech giants no longer have sufficient funds on hand to meet upcoming dividend payment obligations.
Event 4: Turning to domestic conditions, based on four consecutive trading days this week, the central bank's 500 billion yuan reverse repo operations only maintained an average daily turnover of 2.5 trillion yuan, lacking incremental funds to push the market higher. On Wednesday and Thursday, funds were continuously withdrawn from the large financial sector to support the tech sector, and now there is no backup ammunition. Facing short-term liquidity tightness, combined with cross-market observations, all major sector index futures have reached critical pressure points; simultaneously, various cyclical government bonds have also reached critical correction pressure levels.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ The Scenario of Dogecoin Going to Zero
Saying Dogecoin will go to zero is not a curse; first, we need to understand under what conditions it would actually die. After all, an asset with a market cap of tens of billions of dollars cannot be sustained forever by sentiment alone.
The first path to zero is technological obsolescence. $DOGE uses the Scrypt algorithm and merged mining with Litecoin, so its hash power security depends on the LTC network. If one day Litecoin's own hash power collapses, the cost of a 51% attack on DOGE would plummet. A more realistic threat is technological iteration in Layer 2 and payment sectors—if stablecoin payment experiences on Solana or Base crush DOGE, its narratives of "tipping culture" and "everyday payments" will no longer hold. Currently, DOGE issues about 5 billion new coins annually, with an inflation rate of 3.3% continuously diluting holders. There is no deflation mechanism or smart contract upgrade on the technical side, which is a fundamental flaw.
The second path is community dissolution. The core value of $DOGE is community consensus, but it lacks foundation-level continuous operation, and the development team is very loose. The Fear and Greed Index is currently 27, indicating extreme market panic. If the price remains sideways at $0.06–0.07 for one or two years, active addresses continue to shrink, and community enthusiasm is siphoned off by new Memes like PEPE and BONK, consensus will dissipate like frogs slowly boiled in warm water. Those "silent holders" on-chain who haven't moved for years—if they are true believers, that's fine; if they are early low-cost chips, once awakened and selling en masse, the deep support at $0.058 could be directly broken.
The third path is complete replacement by new Memes. The essence of Meme coins is the attention economy. $DOGE is already 13 years old, considered an "ancient species" in crypto circles. New generation players are more familiar with PEPE's cultural symbols, BONK's community play, and even AI Meme narratives. DOGE's moat is only its historical status as the "first Meme coin" and Musk's occasional mentions—but the latter is an uncontrollable variable. The two US DOGE ETFs combined have an AUM of only about $20 million, with almost zero institutional allocation, indicating mainstream funds do not recognize this narrative at all.
So how far is the critical point? Honestly, quite far. DOGE currently has a market cap of about $11.9 billion, daily trading volume over $400 million, and liquidity remains. Although the price of $0.0696 has dropped 90% from the all-time high of $0.73, there is no death spiral yet. The real danger signals are: daily trading volume falling below $100 million, active addresses halving, no social media heat for two consecutive quarters, and losing the key support level of $0.058. If these happen simultaneously, going to zero is no longer a "if" but a "when" question. For now, DOGE looks more like a slow bleeding process rather than a sudden death—but the result of slow bleeding is not much different from going to zero. 📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, this wave of longs was brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $8,740.63
Long liquidations about $8,740.63
Short liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $21,200
Long liquidations about $20,800
Short liquidations about $476.36
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $47,900
Long liquidations about $46,200
Short liquidations about $1,613.92
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $115,500
Long liquidations about $107,900
Short liquidations about $7,632.78
From the $LAB liquidation data, long liquidations in 1 hour overwhelmingly surpass shorts, shorts are zero, the long liquidation blitz started with nuclear-level intensity; the 4-hour long advantage continues, longs are 43 times shorts, long liquidations fully erupt; 12-hour longs still far ahead, ratio about 28.6 times, long liquidations run through short to mid cycles; 24-hour long liquidations soar to $107,900, 14 times shorts, dog whales completed a full-cycle slaughter of longs on LAB—short, mid, and long cycle longs were comprehensively targeted and blasted, shorts’ only resistance slightly strengthened in the long cycle but was futile, cumulative liquidations exceeded $110,000. Longs are bleeding heavily, the long liquidation market is unstoppable. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: the market has entered the "expectations maxed out, flaws must be punished" phase—"exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Performance, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital’s revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix’s Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 557% year-over-year.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance—next quarter’s revenue midpoint is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market’s pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the performance is" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real—as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged about 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix’s Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can’t Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016—three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: Classic Script of Bad News Being Fully Priced In
On August 6, SpaceX’s first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% post-earnings plunge on Wednesday had already priced in the unlocking pressure; new selling was effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic script of "bad news fully priced equals good news." However, the alert is not over—another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, stagflation signals are emerging; SpaceX’s counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news fully priced" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $SUI Sui integrates two NIST-approved post-quantum signature schemes, which is indeed a forward-looking strategic move. It makes Sui one of the first Layer-1 protocols to proactively address the "quantum threat" at the protocol level, allowing users to upgrade smoothly without any cumbersome operations.
This is not a forced "system overhaul," but a well-prepared "security upgrade":
🛡️ Dual Protection: Custom "Quantum Insurance" for Different Assets
Sui does not bet on a single algorithm but chooses two schemes for different risk scenarios:
· ML-DSA-65 (FIPS 204): A lattice-based signature used to protect everyday accounts. Sui specifically selected the more secure Level 3 parameters rather than the basic version, mainly due to the warning from July 2026 when an AI model broke another candidate algorithm in just 60 hours.
· SLH-DSA-SHA2-128s (FIPS 205): A hash-based signature designed specifically for high-value asset vaults. It is based on different mathematical principles, forming a "double insurance" with ML-DSA.
✨ User Experience: A Truly "Seamless" Upgrade
This is the most ingenious part of the scheme. The biggest fear in public chain upgrades is "asset migration" and "new addresses." Sui solves this pain point:
· No new mnemonic needed: The new keys are deterministically derived from your existing mnemonic, so your backup habits don’t need to change.
· No new address needed: Using the "address alias" feature, the authorized key of the existing account is directly updated, keeping assets in place and the address unchanged.
⏳ Timeline and Cost
· Timeline: High-value vaults are expected to launch on the mainnet within 2026; ordinary accounts will go to testnet by the end of 2026 and mainnet deployment in Q1 2027.
· Cost: Because post-quantum keys are longer, transaction sizes will increase, which is a cost the industry must bear. Fortunately, verification performance remains close to the current Ed25519 standard.
💡 Key Insight: Why Are Public Chains More Urgent?
This upgrade means completely different things for traditional systems and public chains. If a traditional system is hacked, keys may not be exposed or can be remedied; but on a public chain, once a transaction occurs, the public key is permanently public. Hackers can collect public keys now and wait until quantum computers mature to crack them—this is the so-called "collect now, decrypt later" attack. Sui’s integration is a crucial step to guard against this real threat.
Overall, this shows that the Sui team remains keenly aware of cryptographic frontiers, quietly strengthening underlying security during the bear market. This kind of "crypto agility" is a value-add for the long term. $SPCX is entering a critical period as a major share unlock is set to significantly increase the amount of tradable supply.
As many as 911.5 million shares are expected to become available today—representing more than 140% of the current public float. Such a large increase in circulating shares could lead to heightened volatility as the market absorbs the additional supply.
Despite reporting revenue above expectations and delivering an unexpected profit driven by its AI business, the stock still declined roughly 12% following its earnings release, highlighting that supply concerns are currently outweighing positive fundamentals.
The pressure may not end there. Additional share unlocks are scheduled for August 12 and again around 20 days later, with more than 4 billion shares projected to become tradable by the end of the year.
While the company's long-term outlook may remain attractive, investors should closely monitor how the market responds to these unlock events, as they could have a meaningful impact on short-term price action.
Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound Major events in the US stock market in the past trading day
Complete review as follows:
1/ According to insiders, if upcoming inflation data is hotter than expected and the market starts pricing in higher borrowing costs, Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh will be open to a rate hike in September. This report has reignited market concerns about the Fed turning hawkish. If inflationary pressures accelerate again, rate hikes could return to the table.
2/ Reports indicate Michael Burry shorted Nebius $NBIS at $211.77 and Oracle $ORCL at $144.63. This is his first time establishing a position in $NBIS.
Burry's trading logic points directly to the high leverage and off-balance-sheet liabilities of AI infrastructure:
The fish have been overfed with off-balance-sheet liabilities. Backstop commitments, leases not yet started, purchase commitments. They have become astonishingly bloated, huge in size, and easy targets. They are so large they are about to run out of oxygen. Soon, each one will flip belly-up due to lack of oxygen.
3/ Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI announced Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $191.9 million, slightly above market expectations of $190 million, up 86% year-over-year. Adjusted EPS was $0.06, market expected $0.01. Non-GAAP net profit was $5.5 million, market expected $1.7 million.
The company expects Q3 revenue between $255 million and $290 million, market expected $278 million; EPS between $0.11 and $0.26; non-GAAP gross margin between 29% and 30.5%.
Management stated the company set a revenue record for the fifth consecutive quarter and returned to non-GAAP profitability. Demand is expected to continue exceeding capacity through mid-2027.
4/ US June JOLTS job openings decreased by 178,000 to 7.359 million, below market expectations of 7.454 million but still above January 2020's 7.124 million.
The ratio of job openings to unemployed rose slightly to 1.04, a new high since January 2025. Hires increased by 96,000 to 5.348 million, with a hiring rate rising to 3.4%, led by healthcare and construction sectors.
Voluntary quits rose by 79,000 to 3.232 million, a near one-year high, indicating rising worker confidence. Layoffs remained steady at 1.766 million, with a layoff rate of 1.1%.
5/ The top 10 option contracts by volume today were: $NVDA 2.9 million contracts, $SPCX 1.7 million, $AAPL 1.3 million, $TSLA 1.2 million, $MU 820,000, $MSFT 690,000, $INTC 586,000, $HTZ 584,000, $PLTR 477,000, $ET 473,000.
6/ In Q2 2026, US private business investment in AI-related categories increased by $300 billion year-over-year, a 25% rise, reaching a record annualized scale of $1.5 trillion.
Growth was mainly driven by spending on computers and peripherals, followed by communication equipment, software, and data centers. Over the past two years, AI-related business investment has increased by $500 billion, a 50% rise, with computer and peripheral investment more than doubling.
It is estimated that direct AI investment has contributed 25% to 33% of recent US GDP growth.
7/ Reports say Google $GOOGL plans to raise funds through US investment-grade bond issuance. Bloomberg reports the company has started marketing bonds with up to 10 maturities, ranging from 2 to 40 years. The initial pricing guidance for the longest maturity bonds is about 155 basis points over comparable US Treasury yields.
8/ Tether bought 14 tons of gold in Q2 2026, bringing its total holdings to a record 146 tons, currently valued at about $18.8 billion.
The company previously bought a total of 53 tons of gold from Q3 2025 to Q1 2026. Compared to Q1 2025, its gold holdings have more than doubled, with the value nearly tripled.
Tether has now become the largest known private gold holder globally, excluding central banks and governments. In the first half of 2026, only four central banks—Poland, Uzbekistan, China, and Kazakhstan—purchased more gold than Tether.
9/ Amazon $AMZN founder Jeff Bezos filed to sell 1,209,649 shares of Amazon stock at $286.41 per share, cashing out approximately $346.5 million before taxes.
10/ US data center construction spending in June surged 46% year-over-year, reaching a record annualized scale of $68 billion, marking the largest year-over-year increase in 12 months.
Since January 2024, this spending has increased by 158%, now more than triple the 2022 level. Meanwhile, office building construction spending has decreased by over $25 billion compared to 2022, down to about $43 billion, the lowest level since 2016.
Data center construction spending now exceeds office building spending by $25 billion, a historic record. In 2022, office building spending was $57 billion higher than data centers. Capital expenditure priorities have completely reversed.
11/ Storage chip ETF $DRAM trading activity has reached extreme levels, with a single-day turnover approaching $8 billion, surpassing ARKK's peak of $5 billion during the 2020-2021 frenzy.
$DRAM's cumulative inflows have risen to about $27 billion, exceeding ARKK's historical peak of about $18 billion, even though $DRAM was only established in April 2026.
The two are not fully comparable. $DRAM holds profitable storage chip companies, while ARKK's core assets at the time were mostly unprofitable growth stocks, and the current interest rate environment differs significantly from 2020.
However, ARKK's inflows eventually peaked and reversed for several years. $DRAM has already fallen nearly 40% from its June high.
12/ According to Reuters, Alibaba $BABA plans to seek revenue sharing for its next-generation open-source Qwen model, while Moonlight demands partners provide up to 30% revenue share for the Kimi K3 model.
As open-source model adoption scales up, leading Chinese AI labs are accelerating commercialization and monetization.Zcash may be one of the few projects that keeps bringing the conversation back to a fundamental question: is censorship resistance meaningful without privacy?
If ownership is fully visible, the argument goes, confiscation risk becomes easier to target. That is why some investors view privacy not as an optional feature, but as a core component of financial sovereignty.
A growing macro concern is also entering the debate. The combination of widening wealth inequality and rapid advances in AI could increase political pressure for new forms of taxation and financial oversight. In that environment, interest in privacy-preserving digital assets may rise again.
What is notable is that many early Bitcoin participants from the 2013–2015 era appear to be revisiting these ideas. The discussion is shifting from short-term price action toward long-term resilience, ownership rights, and resistance to censorship.
Whether one agrees with the thesis or not, the renewed focus on privacy suggests that this theme is becoming an increasingly important part of the broader crypto conversation.
Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound 🚨 The altcoin trends have diverged, with funds concentrating on a small number of assets — this is the true state of the current market.
The cycle where all altcoins rise and fall together is over. The current market is more selective, with liquidity flowing towards a few projects that have clear narratives, real liquidity, and definite catalysts. Most altcoins remain in consolidation phases and have yet to gain funding recognition.
This is not a broad altcoin season explosion but a structural rotation of capital with clear direction. 🔄
Funds are flowing towards the most confident and logically clear directions. Projects with active ecosystems, institutional attention, and sustainable growth capabilities are continuously attracting capital, while unsupported tokens continue to face dual pressures of liquidity shrinkage and insufficient buying.
💰 Current capital inflow direction:
$JTO $JELLYJELLY $BTC $OPG $BTCSLX $LAB $BSB $ALLO $CHIP
📉 Tokens still in a losing position:
$BEAT $EDGE $COAI $TRUMP $RAVE $SPACE $SOPH $IP $AVNT $ZAMA $OFC $PIEVERSE $VIRTUAL $ACU $H $MEGA
👀 My watchlist:
$MEME $EDEN $HUMA $ZKP $METIS
📊 How I understand the current market structure:
👑 $BTC — still the liquidity anchor of the entire market. Without Bitcoin confirming direction, other assets struggle to have independent rallies.
🏛️ $ETH — accumulating structural buying through ETF demand and on-chain activity; institutional allocation logic remains clear.
⚡ $SOL — as a high Beta Layer-1, continuously attracting ecosystem capital inflows with notable rebound resilience.
🤖 $TAO and $WLD — continue to lead the AI sector, with funds concentrated in high-quality thematic directions.
📈 $HYPE** is an effective indicator for observing speculative sentiment, while **$DOGE and $ZEC often reflect retail sentiment reversals in advance.
💡 The underlying market rules have never changed:
The biggest winners are usually identified by prepared participants before becoming the focus of mass discussion. Once all timelines are discussing the same token, the price already includes a lot of optimistic expectations.
🚀 My strategy:
Focus on liquidity, identify narrative shifts, validate judgments with price action, and avoid blindly chasing rallies due to short-term volatility.
⚠️ The above does not constitute investment advice; please conduct your own research.
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13%
$BTC $SNDK $GRVT
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Many friends are still fixated on the underperforming assets in their hands, wasting energy. It might be better to broaden your perspective and first look at the external macro environment. Overseas tech companies have delivered better-than-expected earnings reports and simultaneously announced large buyback plans, clearly showing that leading tech companies have strong cash flow reserves. The overall market risk appetite has not completely cooled down; funds are still chasing directions with certain growth logic.
From the secondary market perspective, the core logic is simple: funds have not massively exited but are instead reselecting directions with solid narrative logic and higher safety margins. At present, rather than obsessing over short-term price fluctuations, it is more worthwhile to pay attention to the rotation and migration of funds between sectors.
Layered perspective breakdown
First layer: Large-cap benchmark categories, determining the overall market fund sentiment
This tier is the market's barometer. Large-cap benchmark assets currently maintain a range-bound oscillation; neither upward nor downward space has fully opened, but they control the overall market sentiment valve. Another mainstream category, supported by industry tool implementation expectations and pledge yield logic, will only see decent opportunities in small and mid-cap thematic sectors if there is a volume breakout signal. As long as these two major benchmark assets do not experience deep corrections, on-exchange funds are willing to try other directions.
Second layer: AI sector, the main line with the strongest fund clustering effect
Currently, the most recognized narrative in the market is the AI sector. Leading projects in this sector focus on distributed computing power networks, with a complete underlying story logic and strong market fund consensus. Other related assets within the sector also see continuous fund back-and-forth trading. The trend of leading projects directly influences the overall AI sector's market performance. This AI rally is not just pure concept speculation; it is supported by actual capital investment from overseas tech giants, so sector divergence is relatively limited, and fund clustering is evident.
Third layer: Physical asset on-chain sector, a trial channel for traditional institutional funds
This is a niche sector where institutional funds are attempting to enter. Some projects are backed by large financial institutions, focusing on asset digitization narratives, recently showing slight price increases, indicating fund exploratory positioning. There are also platform-type projects cooperating with large institutions, following a long-term steady development path. This sector mainly targets large funds with conservative risk appetite. Its rally potential is limited but relatively stable, suitable as a base position for observation.
Fourth layer: Sentiment thematic sectors, rebounds during market downturn phases are only suitable for reducing positions and exiting
Sentiment-driven assets are collectively weakening. Sentiment themes are entirely influenced by market mood; once the market lacks incremental funds or the main sectors start diverting funds, these assets will correct very quickly. One point to clarify: rebounds in sentiment themes are more exit windows rather than bottom-fishing entry signals.
Market observation reference
- Large-cap benchmark assets: range-bound oscillation, insufficient upward momentum, volume expansion needed to confirm subsequent direction
- Mainstream core assets: relatively strong sector performance, fund trading supported by tool implementation expectations, focus on key support levels
- AI sector leaders: sector-leading assets, stronger trend than the market, pullbacks provide observation windows
- AI-linked assets: fluctuate following leaders, clear linkage effect
- Computing power-related assets: frustrating trends, be extra cautious without volume-supported rallies
- Physical asset on-chain representative assets: signs of institutional fund exploratory entry, maintain tracking
- Physical asset on-chain small and mid-cap assets: slower pace, suitable for stealth observation, not for chasing highs
- Sentiment large-cap assets: weakening upward momentum, prioritize position reduction during rebounds
- Sentiment small-cap assets: rapid decline during sentiment downturn, avoid blindly catching the fall
- Hot sentiment assets: fading hype, maintain observation
- Overseas tech benchmark assets: serve as external market sentiment reference indicators, reflecting overseas tech sector heat
Fund flow summary
🟢 Concentrated fund inflows: internal rotation within AI sector, leaders as core; scattered institutional funds entering physical asset on-chain sector
👀 Under observation: mainstream core assets (tool implementation expectations not yet realized, anomalies require close attention); ecological assets suppressed by external events, maintain observation
🔴 Weak trends, not recommended to participate: all sentiment thematic assets, sector sentiment not yet stabilized
🫥 Other tracking targets: overseas tech benchmark assets, used to judge external market risk appetite; physical asset on-chain slow bull assets, only track, refuse to chase highs
Personal review thoughts
Overall approach: tilt allocation focus toward large-cap core assets and AI mainline direction. Sector leaders are currently the market consensus direction.
Reference approach: pay attention near key support zones; if pullbacks do not break key supports, further attention is warranted; set defensive positions and plan first and second stage targets. Overall position size must be strictly controlled. If assets break through key integer levels with volume, attention can be moderately increased, but total position size must not exceed limits.
As for large-cap benchmark assets, hold and observe as long as key supports hold; if effectively broken, prepare to reduce positions.
Risk reminder
The primary current risk comes from shrinking market volume. If the two major large-cap benchmark assets continue lacking volume expansion, many rallies could be bull traps. The collective correction of sentiment themes also indicates that actual market risk appetite is not as optimistic as imagined. Even for the AI mainline, if sudden negative news emerges on the project side, the fund exit-driven correction speed will far exceed the rise. Be sure to manage positions well, avoid full positions, stay away from high-risk leverage, and plan defensive lines carefully.
Summary
The market is in a clear differentiation phase; funds will only flow toward directions with solid logic. Do not be swayed by short-term market sentiment.
All of the above are personal review insights and do not constitute any investment advice. The market is unpredictable; view the market rationally."Old Sun Takes You to Build a Financial Terminal System Worth Millions 4: Design Ideas for the Arbitrage Monitoring Module"
I just got back from a trip a few days ago, and today I continue to update the design ideas for the arbitrage monitoring module.
The arbitrage monitoring module mainly consists of several functions:
Positive Funding Rate Monitoring:
Arbitrage in the crypto space is particularly difficult now. Mainstream coins almost have no arbitrage opportunities, and altcoins are heavily manipulated by various wild whales, posing great risks. Now that there are fewer retail traders in the market, wild whales focus on harvesting arbitrageurs. If you run a fully automated arbitrage strategy, you will 100% fall into traps. Even I, an experienced trader, was liquidated for 1 million U on Bybit by Seraph last October (ultimately losing 780,000), and this year I was hit again on Bitget (losing half). Therefore, this monitoring module not only monitors spreads, real-time/historical funding rates, trading volume, OI changes, FDV, and all other information, but also links with the on-chain token module to monitor the dynamics of the whales. This ensures that while capturing spreads/funding fees, risks are minimized as much as possible.
When many so-called "arbitrage bloggers" appeared on Twitter last year, I warned that arbitrage is not that easy. It's not just about developing an arbitrage tool; there are endless pitfalls and risks inside. Beginners should not try lightly.
These wild whales are currently the biggest cancer in the crypto world. They only need a few million U to manipulate an altcoin, requiring no technical skill, just a lack of bottom line. So these people now hide in HK and SG to cause trouble, forming assembly lines and industrial chains. Some exchanges even have insiders for them, and exchanges are very troubled by them.
I guess writing this will get me cursed by them.
Negative Funding Rate Monitoring:
Wild whales also manipulate negative funding fees, even colluding with some exchange insiders (adjusting funding fee calculation rules and collection intervals) to repeatedly harvest profits. Since each exchange has different funding fee calculation formulas and time intervals, there are certain arbitrage opportunities. I restore the funding rates of each exchange and designed a funding rate prediction model to find arbitrage opportunities. However, arbitrage on negative funding rates is extremely risky, with many human factors involved. I only take action on relatively certain opportunities and do not use large positions.
US Stock Positive Funding Rate Monitoring:
Currently, trading volumes are concentrated in US stock contracts, especially when the US stock market is good, funding fees are quite objective. So I also developed a monitoring system for US stock positive funding rates. The basic logic is the same as crypto positive funding rates, and there is much less risk from whale manipulation. Contracts are mainly on Binance, and spot trading is on Binance and Bitget.
RWA Target Monitoring:
Contracts for US stocks, gold, crude oil, and other targets also have price and funding fee differences across exchanges, which can also be monitored for arbitrage analysis.
Crypto Premium Monitoring:
Monitoring the premium of BTC/ETH quarterly and next-quarter contracts on Binance, OKX, and Deribit. There are currently no arbitrage opportunities here; it is mainly used to monitor crypto funding costs (premium basically equals U borrowing interest) and can serve as one of the indicators for market heat.
OI Abnormal Movement Alerts:
This function is especially important for monitoring whale manipulation. Whales gradually build positions before making moves. This may not be obvious from price changes but is very clear from OI changes. Especially when prices do not change significantly but OI expands significantly, it is the clearest sign of whale entry. I once fell into a huge trap on Bitget because I did not record Bitget's OI change history. Before opening a position, the OI scale was 40 million, but within one minute, whales caused ADL, and OI dropped from 40 million to 2 million. Later, I found out that 95% of the positions were whales trading against each other. So whether for arbitrage or altcoin speculation, OI is the most important indicator to watch. Other indicators can be faked, but OI changes cannot.
Custom Monitoring:
You can freely customize the spread and funding fee monitoring for any trading pair to monitor pairs not yet on the watchlist or pairs of long-term interest (such as strong whale coins like LAB).
Currently, the exchanges covered include binance, okx, bitget, bybit, gate, kucoin, hyperliquid, and aster. Exchange interfaces are uniformly accessed via CCXT to avoid reinventing the wheel.
Figures 1 and 2 are screenshots of the main arbitrage monitoring interface: you can see the targets entering the positive/negative funding rate and US stock funding rate monitoring lists. Targets with arbitrage opportunities are prominently displayed in the arbitrage opportunity alert list.
Figure 3 is the detail view opened after clicking a positive funding rate target: you can see real-time/historical spreads, real-time/historical funding fees, predicted funding fees, liquidity (OI, trading volume, FDV, etc.) detailed information for trading decisions.
Figure 4 is the RWA target arbitrage opportunity monitoring.Just did an in-depth study of Unitree 😊😊, learning together with everyone!
1️⃣ Current Price Analysis
The total shares are 404 million, with an initial issuance of 10%, that is 40.4 million shares, issuance market value 150.8 yuan, issuance market value is 60.9 billion RMB.
Currently, the price on Hype is about 84 USD, which converts to a market value of 227 billion RMB at the exchange rate.
Looking at Unitree's sales and revenue data this year, in the first half of 2026, operating income is expected to be between 1.052 billion and 1.128 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company between 258 million and 306 million yuan, annual revenue about 2.2 billion yuan, annual profit about 550 million yuan.
Based on the above, the PS ratio is 103 times, PE ratio is 413 times; from a performance perspective, the current valuation is too high!
2️⃣ Expected Value Analysis
However, from another perspective, the robotics industry may be one of the biggest tech industries in the next 10 years. In the past 20 years: mobile internet gave birth to Apple, Tencent, Alibaba. In the past 10 years: new energy vehicles gave birth to Tesla. In recent years: the AI wave gave birth to Nvidia. So the next super industry opportunity is very likely embodied intelligent robots.
Of course, high valuation also means high expectations.
The current market value of 220 billion RMB already includes many future assumptions:
- Rapid commercialization of humanoid robots;
- Unitree becoming the leading robot company in China;
- Annual revenue reaching tens or even hundreds of billions;
- Continuous breakthroughs in robot AI capabilities.
If any of these links fall short of expectations, the valuation will face pressure.
3️⃣ Future Value Analysis
The gateway to the future robotics era.
What ultimately determines Unitree's value is not how high the robot dog can jump, nor whether the robot can walk.
But:
Whether it can become a platform company connecting:
AI models × robot hardware × data ecosystem × application scenarios.
If successful, it could become a benchmark enterprise in China's robotics industry.
If it fails, it might just be an excellent robot manufacturer whose valuation was pushed up by the tide of the times.
So Unitree's current valuation is essentially not a traditional manufacturing valuation, but a capital vote on whether the "robotics era has arrived."
4️⃣ Finally
The capital market never rewards today, but bets on the future.
20 years ago, no one knew Apple would become a trillion-dollar company; 10 years ago, no one believed Tesla would change the automotive industry.
Today's high valuation for Unitree is essentially a bet on whether in the next decade, robots will become the next generation super industry following smartphones, electric vehicles, and AI.
#Unitree #unitree Opportunity is here! Just now, top trader Loracle increased his short position on $HYPE by $30.44 million. Combined with the huge short position on $HYPE and today's August 7 Top 15 Gainers analysis, the data analysis is as follows:
1. In-depth analysis of Loracle's short position changes
Loracle currently holds a massive $30.44 million short position on $HYPE. Although he reduced his position by $2.27 million in the past 7 days, his remaining position still accounts for a significant portion of the total open interest (OI) in Hyperliquid contracts.
*Position logic: The $2.27 million reduction does not indicate a shift to bullishness; it is very likely due to $HYPE's recent strong price performance, causing his short position to enter a "risk management" phase or trigger passive stop-losses. This massive short position has not fully exited, implying a strong market expectation of a short squeeze.
*Trader opportunities:
1. Targeting the short squeeze: When such a large short position is trapped, every 1% price increase puts enormous margin pressure on shorts. If $HYPE breaks key resistance levels (e.g., 60 USDT), Loracle may be forced to cover (buy), triggering a violent short squeeze rally.
2. Funding rate arbitrage: Due to the large short position, contract funding rates may remain positive and high. Long traders can exploit this discrepancy to earn the spread while collecting funding fees from shorts.
*Response strategies:
*Aggressive: Monitor $HYPE's 1-minute order flow in the 58.5-60 USDT range. If large aggressive buy orders execute and price does not fall, go long with a stop loss at 56 USDT.
*Defensive: Avoid large short setups before Loracle's liquidation or active position reduction completes. If price falls below 52 USDT, it indicates the long rally failed; then follow whale accumulation but beware of sudden spikes.
2. August 7 Top 15 Gainers Analysis
1. +$BICO: +35.18%. Reason: Officially completed underlying infrastructure restructuring and partnered with a global payment giant for L2 account abstraction cooperation, triggering fundamental revaluation.
2. +$HYPE: +22.40%. Reason: Driven by Loracle's position reduction and short squeeze expectations; protocol 24-hour revenue hit a record high with active capital inflows.
3. +$AEON: +18.92%. Reason: Liquidity release period after new coin listing; community rumors of integration into X Layer ecosystem.
4. +$NEAR: +15.30%. Reason: Google's parent company bond issuance benefits AI infrastructure sector; as AI chain leader, institutional premium inflows.
5. +$FET: +12.45%. Reason: ASI alliance hash rate merger progress exceeded expectations, attracting capital withdrawn from traditional storage sector.
6. +$TAO: +11.20%. Reason: Surge in decentralized model training demand; daily volume breakout above 250-day moving average resistance.
7. +$SOL: +9.85%. Reason: Morgan Stanley MSOL spot ETP subscriptions exceeded expectations; spot premium drove contract price higher.
8. +$ONDO: +8.40%. Reason: Fed's weak employment data raised rate cut expectations; discount rate on RWA assets declined, lifting valuations.
9. +$GRVT: +7.60%. Reason: OKX exclusive liquidity incentive program launched; daily trading volume share rising steadily.
10. +$LINK: +6.10%. Reason: CCIP v2.0 officially launched on mainnet; institutional cross-chain settlement volume grew 300% in one day.
11. +$PEPE: +5.40%. Reason: After $BTC stabilized above 64,000, active funds returned to high-beta Meme coins for swing trading.
12. +$WIF: +4.90%. Reason: Technical oversold rebound; short covering triggered after retesting 1.5 USDT support.
13. +$JUP: +4.20%. Reason: Solana network activity surged due to new project launches; DEX aggregation fee sharing outlook bullish.
14. +$AR: +3.85%. Reason: AO network mainnet node testing passed; market recognizes narrative shift from storage to compute power.
15. +$OKB: +3.20%. Reason: X Layer on-chain TVL surpassed $1 billion; platform token deflation expectations strengthened.
Comprehensive analysis:
Today's market gains are primarily driven by the compute power narrative eroding traditional financial logic. AI investments by Google and Tesla have redefined the "infrastructure value" of tokens like $NEAR and $TAO. For traders, Loracle's $HYPE position is the biggest potential black swan today—if this short position is squeezed and liquidated, $HYPE could experience an extreme pulse surge of over +50%. It is recommended to closely monitor its OI (open interest) fluctuations. $BTC $ETH $MSTR It’s been a while since we’ve seen market liquidity this fragmented 😱
Overall volatility remains patchy, trading volumes are low, and price action feels disjointed. Swing trading in this environment carries high friction your focus should be strictly on tracking real capital flows right now.
Capital Flow Breakdown
🟢 Net Inflows: $BTC $ETH $SOL $KAITO $CORE $ZEC $SOON $ALLO 👀 Watchlist / Rangebound: $DOGE $WLD $TAO $HUMA $METIS $ZKP 🔴 Net Outflows: $BEAT $SHIB $LAB $TRUMP $SPACE $VIRTUAL $MEGA $IP $SOPH $EDGE
Core Market Takeaways
$BTC continues to dictate broader market liquidity, while institutions accumulate $ETH quietly on-chain.
$SOL remains the primary high-Beta L1 play.
$TAO & $WLD hold down the AI infrastructure narrative.
$DOGE serves as the temperature check for retail risk appetite.
24-Hour Market Snapshot
Top Movers Up: $UNI (+18.8%), $ENA (+14.5%), $SHIB (+10.0%), $ONDO (+8.9%), $PEPE (+6.6%)
Top Movers Down: $WLD (-23.9%), $HYPE (-21.9%), $GRAM (-20.3%), $CC (-18.9%), $XLM (-17.8%)
With $BTC up just a modest +0.2%, the vast majority of altcoins continue to lag.
This isn't a broad-based altcoin rally it’s a disciplined, highly selective rotation during a period of tight liquidity. Trade real volume and ignore the hype.
Market review only not financial advice.
#AIMemoryBullTest #OKXTraderVoices
$BTC $ETH $SOL Uniswap is starting to grab the "token issuance entry".
**This is not just adding another Launchpad, but DEXs beginning to compete upstream for business.**
Previously, Uniswap's logic was simple:
Projects issue tokens first,
then come to Uniswap for trading.
Now with Pools.trade launched:
Create token
→ Sale
→ Provide liquidity
→ Start trading
The entire process is done in one chain.
This means Uniswap doesn't just want to earn money "after the trade happens."
It is starting to compete: **who decides where a new token is born.**
And this time, the choice is Robinhood Chain.
This combination is very interesting:
Robinhood handles a large number of retail users,
Uniswap handles on-chain liquidity.
If it works,
traditional brokerage traffic + on-chain token issuance + DEX trading,
could form a new crypto retail closed loop.
But I wouldn't directly call this bullish for UNI yet.
Because the biggest problem with Launchpads is:
too many tokens,
more trash.
What really matters is:
whether there are continuous quality projects,
whether there is real trading volume,
whether users will stay long-term.
So what I'm looking at now is something bigger:
**Uniswap is moving from an "exchange" to a "token issuance infrastructure."**
If this step succeeds,
it won't just be grabbing DEX market share.
Do you think Uniswap can steal traffic from token issuance platforms like Pump.fun?
$UNI
#Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ WD and Sandisk plunged sharply after their earnings reports, which on the surface looks like "AI storage has peaked," but I believe a more accurate explanation is that high expectations are starting to be repriced.
WD Q4 FY26 revenue was $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $3.56; Sandisk revenue was $8.97 billion, adjusted EPS $39.25, with data center revenue at $2.98 billion.
Reuters reported that on August 6, both stocks fell about 19.1% and 13.3% respectively. The numbers themselves are not bad.
The key is not to confuse "storage" as a single track: WD is HDD; Sandisk is NAND/SSD; the memory most directly tied to AI GPUs, HBM, is mainly from SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron.
Currently, Micron still expects DRAM/NAND tightness to continue beyond 2027, Samsung has started mass production of HBM4, and SK hynix has established multi-year next-generation memory cooperation with NVIDIA. The industry logic has not disappeared just because of a one-day stock plunge.
I will focus on four things going forward: AI CapEx from cloud providers, HBM supply and demand, NAND/DRAM price and inventory, and valuation.
If the first three do not weaken simultaneously, this looks more like an expectation adjustment; if orders, prices, and inventory all deteriorate at the same time, then that is a true cyclical turning point.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, longs and shorts are fiercely tugging back and forth, with the "dog whales" harvesting repeatedly...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $2797.75
Long liquidations about $0
Short liquidations about $2797.75
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $23,700
Long liquidations about $10,700
Short liquidations about $13,000
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $90,200
Long liquidations about $46,200
Short liquidations about $44,000
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $213,200
Long liquidations about $135,400
Short liquidations about $77,800
From $KAITO liquidation data, short liquidations crushed longs in the 1-hour window, with shorts monopolizing everything, and a short squeeze blitz starting fiercely; in 4 hours, the short advantage sharply narrowed, ratio dropped to 1.2 times, short squeeze momentum near exhaustion; in 12 hours, longs slightly overtook, ratio about 1.05 times, long liquidation started but very weak; in 24 hours, longs gained strength, ratio rose to 1.74 times, long liquidation dominated the long cycle. The "dog whales" on KAITO completed a turnaround from short squeeze to long liquidation, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $210,000. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered the stage of "expectations maxed out, flaws must be punished" — "exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Performance, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital’s revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix’s Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 557% year-over-year.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance — next quarter’s revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below market expectations of $10.82 billion. The market’s pricing logic for storage stocks has upgraded from "how good the performance is" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real — as of the end of July, AI storage leaders averaged a drawdown of about 40%; in July, SK Hynix’s Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can’t Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three unanimous dissenting votes since 2016 — three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months — "weak employment, strong prices" formed a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlocking: Classic Script of Bad News Being Fully Priced In
On August 6, SpaceX’s first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing about $100 billion in market value. The market had widely expected a selling wave.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already released unlocking pressure in advance; new selling was effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic script of "bad news fully priced equals good news." However, the alert is not over — another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million shares are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth was exchanged for a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX’s counter-trend rise on unlocking day played out the classic "bad news fully priced" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified — old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ # Let’s cut the noise. My base call: this payroll print leans soft, likely prints below consensus. ADP came in ugly, corporate hiring freezes are widespread, and July seasonal trends historically under‑shoot estimates. Businesses are holding headcount steady, not laying people off — pure slowdown, not recession panic. Three market scenarios we’re trading tonight 1. Soft print (bullish risk‑on setup) Jobs number misses badly. Market prices out hawkish Fed bets. Yields dr#黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ $BTC $XAU The global central banks' increased gold holdings and the trend of de-dollarization have a clear and substantial impact on the current gold market. The core is strong support capacity and weak upward pull, which is the underlying logic supporting gold price resilience, rather than a direct driver of short-term sharp rises.
1. Short-term support: locking down the downside and strengthening rebound resilience
In this oversold rebound, central bank gold purchases are the key "safety cushion":
• In Q2 2026, gold prices fell more than 14% in a single quarter, but global central banks increased net holdings by 289 tons against the trend, a 62% year-on-year increase, setting a new record for Q2 gold purchases. Central banks like Poland and China "buy more as prices fall," directly absorbing market selling pressure and preventing deeper declines.
• The People's Bank of China has increased gold holdings for 20 consecutive months, with June's monthly increase hitting a nearly 16-month high, coinciding with a phase low in gold prices. The official capital allocation entry sent a clear bottom signal to the market, making the rebound more resilient.
2. Medium-term restructuring: changing supply and demand structure, pushing up the price base
Sustained large-scale gold purchases have reshaped gold pricing logic:
• The annual net gold purchases by global central banks have risen from about 500 tons in earlier years to nearly 1,000 tons, accounting for over 15% of global total demand, becoming the most stable source of incremental demand.
• Since 2022, gold has exhibited a "structural premium" unexplained by traditional interest rate models, essentially due to central banks' continuous gold buying pushing up the long-term price base. Currently, 45% of surveyed central banks plan to continue increasing holdings in the next year, making it difficult for the market to form a long-term bearish consensus.
3. Long-term foundation: de-dollarization is the core driver
Central bank gold purchases are not short-term speculation but a long-term strategy under de-dollarization:
• Against the backdrop of intensified geopolitical risks and rising risks in dollar asset reserves, many countries actively diversify foreign exchange reserves by increasing holdings of gold, which carries no sovereign risk. This is a structural trend that will not reverse with short-term market shifts.
• Surveys show nearly 90% of central banks believe global gold reserves will continue to grow, and over 70% believe the dollar's share in global reserves will decline. This is the core support for gold's long-term value.
4. Limitations: cannot dominate short-term market trends
Central bank gold purchases can only provide support, not reverse short-term trends. In the past six weeks, gold prices have fallen continuously, mainly driven by rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and a stronger dollar. Even with ongoing central bank increases, gold prices still saw significant pullbacks. The core driver of short-term trends remains Federal Reserve monetary policy; central bank gold purchases are a "safety cushion," not an "engine."Behind the extreme compression of $CORE around $0.02, the core contradiction lies in the continuous linear inflation from the 81-year unlocking cycle and the chip demand gap caused by the commercial delay of key benefits like lstBTC.
The current price has dropped more than 99.5% from the historical high of $6.47, with a 180-day decline of 77.23%, and the 24-hour trading volume has shrunk to several hundred thousand USDT, reflecting that the upward movement is suppressed by high-level trapped chips while the downward movement is in a state of stock game.
Selling pressure dominates the current trading pattern, with miners directly cashing out daily mining rewards, combined with the team and early investors’ linear unlocking of shares until the end of 2028, causing circulating supply to expand. With extremely low on-chain gas fees and no large-scale burn executed, staking lock-up cannot produce a permanent inflation hedge effect.
Chip demand realization is hindered; lstBTC remains in the institutional internal testing phase, and the rigid demand for minting automatic buy tokens has not converted into actual buying, while the originally scheduled commercial launch of SatPay in the first half of 2026 has been delayed, resulting in a lack of on-chain data support for the normalized fee repurchase mechanism.
The scenario for an upward breakout depends on commercial implementation and incremental buying realization. If the general user version of lstBTC is launched and on-chain BTC staking volume shows a significant month-on-month increase, combined with SatPay generating verifiable normalized repurchase records, the market may be passively pushed up due to short covering.
The scenario of maintaining narrow oscillation or downward movement is based on the current stagnation of implementation. If the main product versions continue to be delayed, the daily linear increase in selling pressure will continue to consume retail funds, and if the trading volume remains at the level of several hundred thousand USDT, the price will struggle to escape moving average suppression.
The invalidation signal of this deduction is a sudden surge in spot trading volume to the million USDT level combined with normalized on-chain buying records, at which point the bear market trend structure will be broken.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the progress of the general version release of lstBTC and whether there is normalized repurchase buying data on-chain.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？$OKB OKB consolidates around $87: Outperforms Bitcoin in the long run, awaiting August catalysts
OKB is oscillating with reduced volume near $87, facing short-term pressure.
Strong long-term performance: Messari research shows that since the bull market peak in November 2021, OKB is the only token that has maintained excess returns relative to Bitcoin.
Recent intense catalysts: On August 15, a one-time burn of approximately 65.25 million OKB was executed, fixing the total supply at 210 million; on August 18, contract upgrades removed the mint-and-burn function. Previously, OKX received strategic investment from ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, with a valuation of about $25 billion.
Watch if $87-$88 can hold as support, with lower support at $80-$82. Fundamentals are solid, awaiting the positive impact of the burn. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH Long and Short Crowding Rankings
Continuously paying fees is not scary; what’s worth being cautious about is paying fees but failing to push the price.
$SKHYNIX current fee rate +0.3415%, settled +0.368% in the past 24 hours, at the 92nd percentile of recent samples. Price rises while positions decrease, indicating the driving force likely comes from old positions exiting. The position retreat outweighs the fee signal; wait for OI to stop declining before judging which side will take over again.
$BICO current fee rate -0.1380%, settled -0.408% in the past 24 hours, at the 2nd percentile of recent samples. The rise is not accompanied by position withdrawals; new positions add conditions for this trend to continue. Negative fee rates did not lead to a decline; instead, there is an increase in positions during the rise, showing visible short-side pressure.
$BSB current fee rate -0.0105%, settled +0.062% in the past 24 hours, at the 1st percentile of recent samples. A 15-minute rise with increased positions indicates new positions are participating in this upward move. The fee payment direction has just reversed; the most useful short-term confirmation is no longer to watch the fee rate but to see if price and OI expand in the same direction. Brothers, look at today's #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权, traditional tech stocks' cash cows are still making big profits, but the money hasn't fully gone into the stock market; instead, crypto volatility is getting smaller. The real problem in the market now is: hot spots rotate quickly but lack a main theme, altcoins fall but don't rise, waiting for someone to make the first move.
【Layered Analysis】
First layer: core assets, the main capital switch.
$BTC holds steady at 65,000, $ETH hovers around 3,100. ETF net inflows haven't accelerated, but no one dares to short heavily. This layer is the foundation; if they don't move, nothing below will.
Second layer: AI narrative, the tightest capital cluster.
$TAO hits new highs against the trend, $FET merger is imminent with some pre-positioning, $RNDR adjusts to a key level. AI is the only sector with incremental growth, but don't chase highs; buy on dips.
Third layer: RWA compliance, traditional capital testing waters.
$ONDO dominates tokenized government bonds, $CFG positions in interbank settlement. This layer moves slowly, but institutional funds only recognize this direction.
Fourth layer: Meme sentiment, rebounds during the retreat are just escape attempts.
$DOGE's big bullish candle is deceptive, $PEPE and $WIF keep declining. When sentiment fades, rebounds are just chances to reduce positions; don't take it as true love.
【Market Core Data】
$BTC 65200 / -0.8% / 32.4B
$ETH 3180 / -1.2% / 16.8B
$TAO 580 / +3.5% / 420M
$FET 2.1 / +2.4% / 680M
$RNDR 7.8 / -1.5% / 310M
$ONDO 1.2 / +4.1% / 230M
$CFG 0.42 / +1.8% / 90M
$DOGE 0.132 / -3.2% / 1.24B
$PEPE 0.0000085 / -5.1% / 560M
$WIF 2.4 / -4.0% / 380M
【Capital Flows】
🟢 Heavy inflows: $TAO $ONDO $FET
👀 On watchlist: $ETH $RNDR $CFG
🔴 Weak trend, no participation: $DOGE $PEPE $WIF
🫥 Other tracked targets: $SOL $BNB $LINK $AVAX
【Trading Advice】
Focus on $BTC. Buy long at 64,500-65,000, stop loss at 63,200, targets at 68,000 and 69,000. Position size 20%, no all-in. Stick to discipline, exit if broken.
【Risk Warning】
The biggest risk is a US earnings season crash, AI and crypto linked pullbacks. If rate cut expectations change, liquidity tightens immediately. Leverage should not exceed 3x, always use stop loss on longs.
Don't reason with the market, just enforce discipline.
$BTC $ETH $BNB $SOL $XRP $ADA $DOGE $DOT $LINK $AVAX $LTC $BCH $UNI $ATOM $ETC $FIL $NEAR $APT $IMX $SUI $ARB $OP $TIA $SEI $INJ $PEPE $WIF $TRX $SHIB $TON $XLM $VET $ALGO $MANA $SAND $AXS $AAVE $MKR $COMP $YFI $SNX $CRV $GRT $ENA $JUP $PYTH $WLD $TAO $FET $RNDR $ONDO $CFG $KAS $RUNE $FLOW $MINA $ZEC $DASH $XMR $EOS $IOTA $HBAR $KAVA $ANKR $CELO $METIS $LDO $RPL $SSV $EIGEN $ALT $STRK $ZK $L2 $GALA $BLUR $MAGIC $ILV $APE $QQQ
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $SPCX
##闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #ContractTrading #MarketWatchWill $BTC still return to 120,000, or even rise to 200,000? Let's look at one thing:
Russia has beaten the US to it. 🇷🇺
Putin has officially signed Russia's first comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory law.
Key points:
• Ordinary investors can purchase cryptocurrency through licensed institutions (up to about $3,700 per year)
• Qualified investors have no limit
• Exchanges must be licensed, meet capital requirements, and be regulated
• Cryptocurrency payments are still banned domestically in Russia but allowed for cross-border settlements
• Main provisions will take effect on September 1, 2026.
My view:
This is not Russia starting to embrace Crypto, but beginning to recognize Crypto as an asset, not a currency.
What really deserves attention is the last point—allowing cross-border settlements.
Against the backdrop of US dollar settlements increasingly affected by geopolitical factors, cryptocurrency is gradually becoming another settlement tool for international trade, not just a target for retail speculation.
More interestingly, Russia has completed legislation, while the US CLARITY Act is still stuck in the Senate.
If more countries establish compliance frameworks, the valuation logic of Crypto will slowly shift from "speculative asset" to "global financial infrastructure."
My judgment: this is a long-term positive. The short-term impact is limited, but in the coming years, the real beneficiary may not be altcoins, but $BTC. #俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 .
Whether $BTC can return to its highs and break through again depends on whether cryptocurrency truly circulates globally.
#俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 Uniswap personally steps in as the “referee,” while the neighboring Pons loses half its value in a week
There’s something quite surreal.
Uniswap—the largest decentralized exchange in DeFi—has personally stepped in to become a launchpad.
It’s called pools.trade, on the Robinhood Chain.
Then three things happened:
First, on the launch day, Uniswap V4 on the Robinhood Chain recorded $73.6 million in trading volume, surpassing Ethereum mainnet’s $47.2 million.
Second, over 12,000 new tokens were deployed in a single day, exceeding the combined total of Flap and Pons. By issuance platform trading volume, pools.trade directly took 50% market share.
Third, as of August 6, cumulative trading volume has exceeded $150 million.
A launchpad, on its first day, broke the entire chain’s landscape.
But the most striking part isn’t this.
The most striking is—Pons, originally the largest launchpad on Robinhood Chain, dropped 49% in a week.
All of Pons’ trades were originally settled in Uniswap’s pools. It was essentially a “major client” of Uniswap, contributing trading volume and fees.
Then Uniswap said: Sorry, I’ll do it myself.
Think about this move: the platform directly took down the ecosystem’s largest third-party application.
This isn’t competition; this is the “referee stepping onto the field to play.”
Why is pools.trade so powerful?
Price.
Pons charges 1% pool fees. pools.trade only charges 0.25%.
A quarter.
Even more ruthless—of that 0.25%, 0.05% goes to token creators, and 0.20% is automatically reinvested into permanently locked liquidity pools. The Uniswap team takes zero.
In plain terms: you launch a token, I build the pool for you, all fees stay in the pool to nurture liquidity, and I do it for free.
Hayden Adams put it more bluntly: other platforms charge 1% pool fees plus the buy-sell spread, effectively a 2% "harvesting tool."
0.25% vs. 1%, this isn’t a price war, it’s a price massacre.
But here’s the problem—
With such huge volume, why hasn’t UNI risen much?
UNI rose from $3.5 in mid-July to a high of $4.7 on August 1, but after pools.trade launched, it actually pulled back and is now fluctuating around $4. Large whales bought 629,000 UNI at an average price of $3.34 between June and July, recently taking profits at $4.09.
What is the market hesitating about?
To be honest—
The biggest issue with pools.trade right now isn’t a bad product, it’s that it hasn’t produced a high-market-cap Meme coin.
Two days after launch, only two tokens have market caps over $1 million. FRONG has an $8.2 million market cap and $31.7 million 24-hour volume.
Volume is large, but there’s no “benchmark.”
Whether a launchpad succeeds isn’t about how many tokens it issues on day one, but whether it can produce a few projects that make everyone envious.
Pump.fun can produce several 100x tokens a year, so people are willing to bet there.
If pools.trade is just “cheap token launches,” it attracts only small-time grinders, not big gamblers.
But from another perspective—
Uniswap doing a launchpad, the real value isn’t in “token issuance” itself.
It’s in the entry point.
How did users use Uniswap before? They’d find projects on Twitter, buy tokens on third-party launchpads, then trade on Uniswap.
Now? Open pools.trade, launch tokens, discover new tokens, trade—all on one page.
Uniswap has transformed from a “trading backend” to a “token issuance gateway.”
This shift is 100 times more important than collecting a few extra fee points.
Whoever controls the token issuance gateway controls the asset issuance rights on this chain.
Finally, some practical words—
What’s the most important thing for a good launch platform?
Not low fees, not a pretty UI.
It’s whether the projects launching here can truly take off.
Pump.fun succeeded because it really produced several 100x tokens. Users are willing to pay 1% fees because they’re betting on 100x returns.
pools.trade’s 0.25% fee is very generous. But if it can’t produce benchmark projects, no fee, however low, can keep people.
Uniswap has traffic, brand, and deep liquidity. Next, it comes down to one thing—
Can pools.trade grow a few real “big winners”?
If yes, UNI’s new narrative opens up. If not, it’s just a “cheap launchpad.”
Uniswap has been a “water seller” for four years, finally starting its own mining. But whether there’s gold in the mine remains to be seen.
$PUMP $SOL $UNI #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ Even a skilled cook fears having no rice to cook with, and NVIDIA fears having no available memory
No matter how powerful the GPU is, without enough high-bandwidth memory, it can only wait for data.
NVIDIA is testing a "downgraded" version of Rubin Ultra:
The compute chiplets may be reduced from 4 to 2, HBM4E from 16 stacks to 8, and the originally planned maximum 1TB memory configuration will also be scaled down.
Although the news has not been officially confirmed, the underlying problem is already clear: the bottleneck of AI computing power is shifting from the GPU to HBM and advanced packaging.
HBM is like a high-speed conveyor belt delivering raw materials to the GPU.
Large models are getting bigger and bigger; if memory capacity and bandwidth can't keep up, no matter how much computing power there is, it will be "starved."
HBM requires multi-layer DRAM stacking and co-packaging with the GPU, where yield, heat dissipation, and production capacity are all indispensable.
The original Rubin Ultra plan packed 4 large chiplets and 16 groups of HBM4E, with impressive theoretical performance but equally challenging mass production difficulty.
The AI chip competition is no longer just about "whose GPU is faster," but about "who can integrate computing, storage, packaging, interconnect, and cooling and deliver it stably."
What will truly be scarce in the future may not be stronger GPUs, but a computing system that never lacks memory and can operate continuously.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ HEIMA/USDT is showing a potential bullish setup on the 1H timeframe. After a strong rally from around $0.10 to $0.55, the price has experienced a major pullback and is now trading near $0.176, close to the 200 EMA, which is acting as an important support. The key support zone is around $0.15–$0.17. If this zone holds and price gives a clear bullish reversal or CHoCH, the potential upside targets are around $0.25, $0.37, and $0.50. Volume was very strong during the previous rally and sell-off, while current volume is relatively lower, suggesting that selling pressure may be weakening. However, a strong 1H close below the $0.15 area and 200 EMA would invalidate the bullish setup and could lead to further downside. Overall, the chart offers a potential long opportunity, but confirmation from price action is important before entering.
#AIMemoryBullTest
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
#SpaceXUnlockRebound
$heima 📊 $HYPE Liquidation Flash Report (August 7)
According to liquidation data, short-term shorts were crushed hard, but mid-to-long-term longs suffered a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $1,758.11
Long liquidations about $1,758.11
Short liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $35,400
Long liquidations about $33,700
Short liquidations about $1,729.00
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $161,300
Long liquidations about $105,000
Short liquidations about $56,300
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $1,212,700
Long liquidations about $823,100
Short liquidations about $389,500
From the $HYPE liquidation data, 1-hour long liquidations crush shorts with zero short liquidations, indicating a fierce short-squeeze blitz at the start; the 4-hour long advantage continues, longs are 19.5 times shorts, with a full-scale long liquidation outbreak; the 12-hour long advantage sharply narrows to 1.87 times, showing significant short-squeeze strength; 24-hour long liquidations surge to $820K, 2.1 times shorts. The market makers on HYPE have completed a rhythm evolution of short-term long liquidation, mid-term short squeeze undercurrent, and long-term long liquidation again — short-term longs were targeted and blasted, long-term shorts resisted but to no avail, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $1.21 million. Everyone, control your positions and avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a "fully priced expectations, flaws will be punished" phase — "exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Results, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 557% year-over-year.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance — next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the results are" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real — as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged about 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in one month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, so any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016 — three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months — "weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: Classic "Bad News is Good News" Scenario
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing about $100 billion in market value. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the unlock pressure; new selling was effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. However, the alert is not over — another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news is good news" scenario. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified — old logics are collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Gold surges, BTC plays dead: Why does the same macro script produce two different shows?
Once the ADP data was released, gold went crazy.
On August 5, spot gold surged rapidly, with intraday gains reaching as high as 4.48%, breaking through the 4100 and 4200 levels consecutively. On August 6, it continued to climb, reclaiming $4300 and hitting a nearly seven-week high.
The market is betting real money on one thing: weak employment → cooling rate hike expectations → positive for interest-free assets.
The logic is clear, the script is straightforward.
But what about BTC?
It remains motionless, stuck at 64,000.
On August 7, Bitcoin dipped intraday to $64,000, down more than 1% from the daily high. ETH fell below $1900, with a total market cap of 2.285 trillion, down 0.3% in 24 hours.
The same macro script, gold is showing a strong bull market, BTC is stuck in a sideways drama.
Why? Some say: because the employment data isn’t that bad.
Indeed. ADP was only 44,000, far below the expected 75,000. But initial jobless claims have been below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, at just 199,000. The job market is weak, but not collapsing.
Others say: because the Fed is still hawkish.
That’s true too. CME data shows about a 55% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in September. Fed Governor Cook said: if inflation doesn’t continue to cool, she’s ready to take policy action.
The positives and negatives cancel each other out, leaving BTC directionless.
But this is just the surface.
The real reasons lie in three breaking points.
Breaking point one: Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days.
From May 19 until now, Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has been in negative territory for 80 straight days, the longest streak since the indicator was introduced.
What does this mean? US institutions are selling, Asia is buying. One is dumping, the other is absorbing.
Net result = no result.
Breaking point two: ETF inflows have arrived, but prices haven’t risen.
On August 3, Bitcoin ETF net inflows rebounded to $170 million. On August 6, a single-day net inflow of $243 million, and a cumulative $582 million over three days.
Money is coming in, but prices aren’t moving.
Because ETF marginal buyers aren’t true "all-in bulls" — they are arbitrageurs, short-term traders, and premium chasers who jump in and out quickly. BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounts for over 60%, making the market dangerously concentrated.
Breaking point three: Fed internal divisions.
Three members want to hike rates, three want to wait. Expectations of rate cuts vs. risks of hikes cancel each other out.
Cook says ready to hike, Williams says he might support hikes if necessary. Meanwhile, ADP data is giving ammunition to the rate cut camp.
The market is being tugged between two directions, BTC is being ground flat between two expectations.
The wind has already started blowing.
Rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, risk-off sentiment — all are present.
The current market feels like watching a game —
First half ADP says "we’re losing," second half initial claims say "we’re winning."
The referee (nonfarm payrolls) hasn’t blown the whistle yet, so don’t rush to celebrate or cry.
Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are expected to add 83,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. June only had 57,000.
If nonfarm is below 83,000 → rate cut expectations confirmed → BTC may catch up with a rally.
If nonfarm is above 83,000 → employment remains strong → rate hike expectations strengthen → BTC will keep grinding.
The contradiction between ADP and initial claims can only be broken by nonfarm payrolls.
To be blunt —
BTC at 64,000 now is like someone waiting for the wind. The wind (rate cut expectations) has blown, but the sail hasn’t moved.
ETF is buying, price isn’t moving. This is more anxiety-inducing than a drop.
Because you’re waiting for a rise that should happen, but it just doesn’t.
Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls will determine whether the wind fills the sail or capsizes the boat.
Keep a close eye.
Gold has already ridden this wind up to 4200. BTC is still playing dead at 64,000. 65,000 is the signal to "raise the sail." If it breaks above, the macro logic finally transmits to the crypto market. If not, it remains stuck in the "all good news priced in" script, continuing to grind.
Focus on the nonfarm data at 8:30 tonight.10,000 USD entered, 0.5 USD short position, waking up to a huge profit, $BTC instantly carrying a hundredfold dream! But today, as I watch the news about the CLARITY Act, I just want to say: another dovish again, speak out loud. The Senate went on vacation, the Democrats held the consent and refused to approve it, and Thune personally confirmed that the Digital Asset Framework Act would only be voted on in September. H.R. 3633, a pretty pleasant name, CLARITY, means Clarity Act, but the least clear part is its timeline. Last year they called for it, this year it pushed into summer, summer into autumn—this script looks familiar to me, exactly like the tug-of-war ETF approval in 2024. Every time, they say it's almost there, then the congressmen go on vacation, leaving the entire crypto community to draw ECGs on candlestick charts. Just now, $BTC surged to around 87,600 and then pulled back, clearly indicating that short-term funds are also waiting for the right direction. I think this kind of policy vacuum is actually the most exhausting—no positive news materializes, no negative news comes out, and the market just sits sideways, just like my own mindset after being half an hour late for food delivery. September, and September again. Historically, September has not been very friendly for $BTC or $ETH. Everyone knows how much shadow the 2017 94 incident has left behind. However, if CLARITY can truly provide DeFi and exchanges with legal status, it would be a real boon for the $SOL and $ETH ecosystems. But now we still have to wait—when the Senate is on vacation, after they finish their coffee and hold hearings, waiting for that possibility forever📊 $ZEC Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, short-term shorts were crushed hard, but mid-to-long-term longs suffered a bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $866.13
Long position liquidations about $12.59
Short position liquidations about $853.54
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $149,600
Long position liquidations about $509.32
Short position liquidations about $149,100
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $243,200
Long position liquidations about $44,500
Short position liquidations about $198,800
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $1,443,900
Long position liquidations about $885,900
Short position liquidations about $558,000
From the $ZEC liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour short liquidations crushed longs, with short liquidations 67 times and 292 times that of longs respectively, showing a short squeeze with nuclear-level intensity in the short term; the 12-hour short advantage sharply narrowed, ratio dropped to 4.47 times, indicating marginal weakening of short squeeze momentum; the 24-hour direction completely reversed, with long liquidations crushing shorts, longs were 1.59 times shorts. The market makers on ZEC completed a fierce turnaround from short squeeze to long liquidation — short-term short chasing was targeted for destruction, long-term long chasing was wiped out, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $1.44 million. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered the stage of "expectations maxed out, flaws must be punished" — "exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Performance, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 7.932 trillion KRW, up 557% year-over-year.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance — next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below market expectations of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the performance is" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion in 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term corrections are also real — as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged a drawdown of about 40%; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes in agreement since 2016 — three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months — "weak employment, strong prices" formed a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: Classic Script of Bad News Being Good News
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the unlocking pressure; new selling was effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic script of "bad news fully priced is good news." However, the alert is not over — another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million shares are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth was exchanged for a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news fully priced" script. When beating expectations has become standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified — old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Yesterday I wrote about Boltz shutting down, and I said the next to disappear might be those small services that can't afford security teams.
Today's news goes in the opposite direction: MetaMask is letting AI directly handle your money.
MetaMask is the most widely used Ethereum wallet, the little fox in the browser extension. On August 6th, it launched something called Agent Wallet.
An AI agent is a program that can work by itself using connected tools; you give it a goal, and it researches, judges, and acts on its own.
Previously, AI helped you monitor the market and calculate data, but you had to click to make the final transfer yourself. Agent Wallet hands over even that last step.
The money is still in your hands, MetaMask never touches your private keys—this is called self-custody. What it does is add a gate at the wallet layer.
The rules you can set: maximum amount per transaction, total spending limit, which protocols are allowed, and risk tolerance. There are two levels: Guard Mode and Beast Mode—one asks for your approval before execution, the other runs freely.
Supported agent frameworks officially listed are Claude Code, Codex, OpenClaw, Hermes, OpenCode, and Cursor. The scope of action covers HyperLiquid and supported EVM chains, basically the Ethereum ecosystem.
A practical detail: you no longer need to hold the native token of that chain to pay fees. Previously, if you wanted to transfer USDC on a chain, you had to have some of that chain’s native coin for gas fees; without it, you couldn’t proceed. Now the fee is deducted directly from the token you’re transferring.
Security involves three layers: simulating the transaction beforehand to tell you what will happen; Blockaid scans for malicious contracts; plus MEV protection to prevent bots from front-running your transaction and profiting from the price difference.
Then there’s compensation. If you lose money after passing all security checks, you can get up to $10,000 per month.
So the change isn’t where the money goes, but who confirms the transaction. Before it was you, now it’s the rules you set in advance. 🐸#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
This time, the sharp drop in storage stocks, I believe, is not due to an industry collapse but because the market is starting to cool down the "high expectations." What really kills stock prices is never the earnings report, but the future.
Many people's first reaction after seeing SanDisk and Western Digital's earnings reports is: "The performance is so good, why is the stock still falling?"
The answer is actually very realistic.
The market has long priced in good performance; now the competition is whether the next step can continue to exceed expectations.
SanDisk's revenue, profit, and gross margin almost all exceeded expectations this quarter, and Western Digital also delivered a strong report, yet their stock prices both plunged after hours. The reason is that the next quarter's earnings guidance did not meet market appetite, investors worry growth is slowing, so funds choose to take profits first.
What really deserves attention is not just the earnings report, but some new changes in the entire AI storage industry chain.
On one hand, high-end storage like HBM is still in short supply, and AI server demand has not noticeably cooled; on the other hand, excessive supply tightness is starting to bring side effects. Market rumors say Nvidia is reassessing the HBM configuration for the next generation of AI chips. The shortage of high-end storage capacity may actually slow down chip shipment pace.
This is also why positive news did not boost stock prices but made funds more cautious.
Subsequently, selling sentiment quickly spread, with storage leaders like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix collectively pulling back, and the entire semiconductor sector coming under pressure.
However, I do not think the AI storage rally is over.
Currently, demand for high-end storage remains strong, many capacities have been locked in advance, prices remain high, and the industry's fundamentals have not fundamentally changed. This round of adjustment looks more like a valuation correction rather than a reversal of the boom cycle.
My strategy is also very clear:
Respect the short-term trend, do not bottom-fish lightly; if sentiment continues to release and valuations return to reasonable levels, I will instead refocus on opportunities in storage leaders.
In a bull market, the easiest way to lose money is not buying the wrong company, but treating growth stocks as value stocks during the realization of high expectations.
If it were you, do you think this storage stock plunge is a normal shakeout in a bull market, or a signal that the AI storage rally is cooling down? I lean towards the former.Family, last night the two US employment data conflicted.
ADP new jobs added only 44,000, much lower than the expected 75,000, hitting a six-month low. Looking at the trend, it was 75,000 in April, dropped directly to 45,000 in May, slightly rebounded to 57,000 in June, and fell back to 44,000 in July. Hiring is cooling down and unstable.
But the initial jobless claims are a completely different story—199,000, below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, still at a historic low. This indicates that although new hiring is slowing, companies are not laying off much, and the labor market is still holding up.
What the market is really struggling with now is: will there be a rate hike in September?
Fed Governor Cook said that if inflation does not continue to cool down recently, she is ready to take policy action. The market prices in a 56.7% chance of a rate hike in September, still over half. Nonfarm payrolls come out tonight, CPI next week, and these two data points will directly determine the policy direction in September.
For the crypto market, the main macro trading theme is no longer "whether employment is good or bad," but "whether employment cooling can outpace inflation." The market is now waiting—waiting for nonfarm payrolls, waiting for CPI, waiting for the Fed to give a clear direction. During this window, Bitcoin will most likely fluctuate, and the direction will be chosen based on the data.
What do you think—will there be a hike in September or not? Feel free to share your judgment in the comments. Wish everyone smooth trading today. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Tonight at 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls release! September rate hike probability 63%, BTC ultimate long-short showdown
💥 Tonight at 8:30 PM, global traders collectively focus on the screen—the official US July Nonfarm Payrolls announcement.
The market expects an increase of 80,000 jobs, slightly better than the dismal 57,000 in June, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.2%. But the real powder keg is the Federal Reserve: last week at the FOMC, three officials voted for a rate hike on the spot, and Governor Cook stated "ready to support a rate hike"; insiders revealed that as long as inflation remains hot in the coming weeks, Chair Powell is ready to act in September. Bank of America is even more aggressive—predicting three consecutive rate hikes!
Don't forget the previous lesson: June Nonfarm unexpectedly came in at 57,000, BTC surged 4% that day to 62K, and touched 64K over the weekend. If the data disappoints again this time and rate hike expectations collapse, BTC will repeat the script; if data exceeds 100,000, rate hikes are nailed down, and risk assets will collectively bow down. The small Nonfarm ADP has already exploded early: only 44,000 added in July, the lowest in half a year!
Tonight, which side are you betting on?
🅰️ Nonfarm disappoints → BTC surges, bottom-fishing opportunity arrives
🅱️ Nonfarm exceeds expectations → BTC under pressure, better to run first
🅲️ Data is average → range-bound, just watch the show
🅳️ No guess, go all in then delete the app
Comment below to take sides, let me see the long-short ratio!📊#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #ADP employment cools down, Fed policy divergence intensifies
July ADP employment data fell short of expectations, and the market began to trade ahead on Fed rate cut expectations, but I believe things are not that simple.
In the past month, the market cannot just focus on employment. The US-Iran situation heated up in July, geopolitical risks pushed oil prices higher, and energy costs have once again become an inflation concern. Crude oil is like the blood of the economy; once prices rise rapidly, transportation, manufacturing, and consumption all get affected, ultimately reflecting in the CPI data.
Therefore, I think tonight's nonfarm payrolls and next week's CPI may not be as favorable as the market imagines. Cooling employment does provide a reason for rate cuts, but if inflation pressure from energy prices rises again, the Fed will not find it easy to pivot quickly.
This is why the market is very conflicted now: bad employment data supports rate cut expectations, which is positive for US stocks and $BTC, but inflation risks from rising oil prices $CL $BZ limit the market's upside.
Regarding US stocks, I believe there is still short-term support; AI and tech sectors remain the focus of capital, but if CPI exceeds expectations, the high valuation of US stocks may face a stress test.
As for gold, I remain bullish. Geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and rate cut expectations all fuel gold. However, gold has risen significantly recently, so short-term volatility and consolidation may occur.
The biggest variable for BTC right now is not technicals but liquidity. If the market regains confidence in a September rate cut, capital may flow back into risk assets, giving BTC a chance to rebound; but if CPI shows inflation heating up again, the market may choose to seek safety first.
I think the July oil price increase might be a hidden landmine; the market is currently trading on rate cuts and tonight's nonfarm payroll sentiment, while CPI will determine the direction.
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice! 📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Update (August 7)
According to liquidation data, the shorts have been mercilessly crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour: approximately $1520.25
Long position liquidations: approximately $0
Short position liquidations: approximately $1520.25
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours: approximately $1520.25
Long position liquidations: approximately $0
Short position liquidations: approximately $1520.25
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours: approximately $2380.23
Long position liquidations: approximately $0
Short position liquidations: approximately $2380.23
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours: approximately $2475.43
Long position liquidations: approximately $47.30
Short position liquidations: approximately $2428.14
From the $CORE liquidation data, short liquidations dominate entirely in the 1-hour, 4-hour, and 12-hour periods, with longs at zero. The short squeeze is a purely one-sided force throughout the short to mid-term cycles; in the 24-hour period, short liquidations still lead by a wide margin, but longs have begun to show a very slight resistance (only $47), with short liquidations 51 times that of longs. The dog whales have completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on CORE—shorts across short, mid, and long cycles have been comprehensively targeted and liquidated, while the longs’ minimal resistance is almost negligible, with total liquidations under $2500. Although the scale is small, the direction of the short squeeze is extremely consistent, a textbook example of a one-sided short squeeze. Everyone, manage your positions carefully and avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a phase of "expectations maxed out, flaws punished"—"exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Results, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue of $8.965 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%; Western Digital’s revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix’s Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-over-year increase of 557%.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% in after-hours trading. The culprit was guidance—next quarter’s revenue midpoint of $10.55 billion fell short of the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market’s pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the results are" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real—as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged a drawdown of about 40%; in July, SK Hynix’s Korean stock saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned in direction since 2016—three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July’s ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: A Classic Case of Bad News Being Good News
On August 6, SpaceX’s first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the unlocking pressure; new sell orders were effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic script of "bad news fully priced equals good news." However, the alert is not over—another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX’s counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news fully priced" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance is infinitely magnified—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Guigu Morning Report Analysis｜HYPE
We shared HYPE around $31, and after it rose to about $68, we took profits.
Now that it has fallen back to this level, I personally feel it can re-enter the observation zone, preparing to look for an opportunity to get on board.
Recently, there have been market rumors that HIP-3's largest market, TradeXYZ, might break away from Hyperliquid and operate independently. This is one of the main reasons for the decline. Another reason is the stagnation of HYPE ETF capital inflow.
However, in the past few days, TradeXYZ has started using part of its fee income to buy back HYPE and use it to purchase new Tickers. At least from this action, TradeXYZ is still continuing to invest in the Hyperliquid ecosystem, and the independent operation rumor is unfounded.
Currently, the fees generated by TradeXYZ's HIP-3 market are split 50% to TradeXYZ and 50% to Hyperliquid.
The portion received by Hyperliquid goes into the aid fund, which automatically buys and burns HYPE.
Now TradeXYZ has also started converting its portion of the fees into HYPE to expand new markets.
In other words, the higher the trading volume on HIP-3, the more HYPE may benefit simultaneously from protocol buyback and burn and the demand brought by TradeXYZ's market expansion.
Going forward, the main focus is whether TradeXYZ will continue to use fees to purchase HYPE and whether there is any substantial evidence for the independent operation rumors As of 11:47 Singapore time on August 7, 2026, the entire Crypto market remains in a typical "pre-event compression" phase. Currently, the global cryptocurrency market cap is approximately $2.28 trillion, with the 24-hour overall change close to zero; BTC Dominance remains around **56.6%**, indicating that funds are still concentrated in BTC, and a large-scale Alt Season has not yet appeared. The most important macro variable today is only one: tonight's US July Nonfarm Payrolls. The market expects about 80,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding around 4.2%. More importantly, the market has started to discuss again whether the Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates, so tonight's data will significantly amplify the impact on the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and Crypto risk appetite. Meanwhile, the Middle East situation is again pushing oil prices higher, adding to the uncertainty of inflation and interest rates. Therefore, my core definition of today's market is: this is not a trending market but a wait for a new pricing variable. 1. BTC: 64K remains the lifeline of the entire market BTC is currently around $64,260. The range in the past 24 hours is approximately: $64,114—$64,916. The highest point in the past 7 days is only about: $64,933. This set of data is actually very interesting because it means: $65,000 is no longer just a psychological barrier but a short-term real chip concentration area. BTC has been continuously testing here,On-chain data sends a key signal
Non-farm payroll data is about to be released, BTC is consolidating around 64,000, waiting for the next direction.
MVRV Z-Score has entered a historical bottom range.
The current MVRV Z-Score is about 2.1, close to the level after the 2022 FTX crash. This indicator bottomed at 0.8 in 2015, 1.5 in 2018, and 1.8 in 2022. Although it may not precisely reverse at the historical lowest point, the current level is enough to indicate that BTC, from an on-chain valuation perspective, has entered one of the rare "cheap zones" in history.
An unignorable variable: long-term holders are accumulating.
Glassnode data shows that net positions of long-term holders increased by about 36,000 BTC in the past two weeks, the largest monthly increase since Q4 2025. Historically, when long-term holders continuously accumulate above 60,000 USD, it often corresponds to a major cycle bottom.
Short-term structure: repeated tests at 64,000
BTC has formed a clear chip accumulation between 63,800-64,500, with price repeatedly testing the 64,000 integer level on the 1-hour chart. The 64,500-65,000 range remains a key resistance zone, while 63,000-63,500 is the core support area below.
Two scenarios for the non-farm data
If the data is weak → rate hike expectations cool further → USD weakens → BTC is expected to test 65,000-65,500 upward; if the data is strong → strengthens the September rate hike logic → BTC faces pullback pressure, 63,000-63,500 will be tested again. No directional bets in the middle range, let the data speak.
Trading space
Above 64,000 is the 65,000-65,500 supply zone, below is the 63,000-63,500 demand zone. If a low-volume stabilization signal appears at 63,000-63,500, light long positions can be tried, stop loss at 62,000, target 65,000-65,500. After the non-farm data, if there is a volume breakout above 65,000 and it holds, longs can be chased, stop loss at 64,000, target 66,500-67,000. No action in the middle range.
On-chain data says it’s cheap, long-term holders say buy, but the short-term structure has not yet given a breakout signal. Waiting for data, waiting for signals, waiting for direction. #Storage stocks plunge after earnings reports, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Earnings exceeded expectations, but stock prices fell. Western Digital and $SNDK both delivered solid results, but one was cautious in guidance and margin statements, and the other missed consensus on next quarter's revenue midpoint, causing both to plunge after hours. The Asian market was hit hard, with South Korea's KOSPI dragged down by semiconductors, $SKHYNIX crashing pre-market, and Samsung following suit.
What happened to the promised AI memory supercycle?
The numbers can no longer satisfy the market's appetite. The story of rising storage prices and HBM supply shortages has been told for over half a year, with stock prices multiplying several times from the bottom. If you tell me "demand is strong" again, the marginal effect has long dulled. The market has moved past the "true or false" stage and is now trading on "how long it can last." Instead, everyone is pondering one question: Is the HBM shortage a profit protection cushion for storage companies, or a hard constraint on AI chip shipments?
Nvidia is already evaluating reducing Rubin Ultra's VRAM configuration—high-end HBM is insufficient, so orders are being cut to avoid shipment delays. This exposes the contradiction: while storage companies loudly claim "all capacity is sold out," downstream customers are forced to redesign because they can't get the parts. Tight supply and demand is a double-edged sword; if it cuts into AI shipments, the entire chain must be reassessed.
Adding to this is the stampede effect of leveraged products. Before doubling down on Hynix, Southern repeatedly experienced single-day large drops, forcing leveraged long funds to liquidate, dragging the underlying stock into a spiral decline. Earnings didn't collapse, but positions did.
How to handle this?
SanDisk 1195 is the short-term lifeline; if it breaks, look to the 1150-1180 buying zone; if it falls below 1080 with volume, exit immediately, no hesitation. Until the 1350-1400 resistance zone is breached, treat all rebounds as mere rebounds—don't overplay it.
Hynix ADR is extremely volatile; after the pre-market flash crash, watch first, don't catch a falling knife. Wait for stabilization signals before acting; better to miss the rebound than to buy halfway up the mountain.
Don't just focus on earnings reports; the pace of HBM capacity expansion and Nvidia GPU shipment data are the next indicators to watch. How much downstream can ship determines how much upstream can profit. The next pricing power in the storage market lies not with storage manufacturers but with AI chip makers.
The logic hasn't changed, but the position has. Zoom out to the monthly chart; something that has risen twentyfold can afford to rest for two months without shame.
Let those who need to run do so first, then you watch.The Crypto Asset Framework: 45 Tokens Across 6 Core Sectors 🧠
Instead of treating crypto as one giant market, try viewing it as six distinct sectors. Each one carries its own investment thesis and unique value drivers. That simple mindset shift can completely change how you build your portfolio.
🟢 DeFi — $AAVE • $MORPHO • $SYRUP • $UNI • $JUP
🔵 Layer 1 — $ETH • $SOL • $AVAX • $SUI • $ADA • $NEAR • $SEI • $APT • $DOT • $ATOM
🔴 Real World Assets (RWA) — $ONDO • $CFG • $ALGO • $XAUT • $PAXG • $PLUME • $PENDLE • $ENA • $EDEN • $RE
🟣 Layer 2 — $ARB • $OP • $ZK • $STRK • $POL • $MEGA • $CTSI • $LINEA • $BASE • $MANTA
🟠 AI & Decentralized Compute — $TAO • $RENDER • $AKT • $GEOD • $FET • $VIRTUAL • $VVV • $ICP • $GRASS • $KITE
🟡 Store of Value — $BTC • $BNB • $LTC • $XMR • $ZEC
This is not a list of guaranteed winners. It's a mental model for understanding where capital tends to rotate during different phases of the market cycle.
Here's the quick breakdown:
DeFi: Lending, trading, and on-chain financial infrastructure.
Layer 1s: The foundational blockchains powering entire ecosystems.
RWA: Bridging traditional assets onto the blockchain.
Layer 2s: Boosting performance and cutting transaction costs.
AI: Where artificial intelligence meets decentralized infrastructure.
Store of Value: Assets built for long-term preservation and network security.
Diversifying across these sectors can help reduce concentration risk. But remember, every position should be backed by your own research and solid risk management. Nothing here is financial advice.
Which sector takes up the biggest slice of your portfolio right now? 👇
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips
Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction."
In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once.
Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence.
The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive.
Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation.
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes:
1. Employment data significantly strengthens
The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes.
2. Employment data significantly weakens
Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls.
3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot
This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation.
Practical advice for ordinary traders
① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges.
② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle.
③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform.
Personal market thoughts:
🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment
🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern
🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes
🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention
📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite
🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment
💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS🚨 The macro showdown is now on the table—the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" stance is clashing head-on with weak employment data, and the direction of the next crypto rebound will be determined by the outcome of this battle.
Global markets are at a critical juncture, with two forces tearing apart current policy expectations.
On one hand, U.S. labor data continues to underperform expectations, and economic momentum is clearly cooling; on the other hand, several Federal Reserve officials still emphasize anti-inflation priority, refusing to ease rates even amid slowing growth. This divergence is forcing the market to reprice the interest rate path.
📉 If economic data continues to weaken, pressure for the Fed to turn dovish will quickly build.
At that point, U.S. Treasury yields will decline, the dollar will weaken, and global liquidity will marginally improve—historically, these conditions have often been fertile ground for risk asset rebounds. For the crypto market, $BTC typically performs strongly in a looser financial conditions environment, with institutional funds tilting toward scarce assets.
🔄 If falling rates activate the on-chain ecosystem, $ETH could outperform the broader market in the next phase.
The activity levels in DeFi, RWA, Layer 2 sectors are often highly correlated with liquidity conditions. Meanwhile, leading tokens in $SOL, $LINK, and the AI sector are also expected to attract incremental capital as risk appetite recovers.
⚠️ But this is not a one-sided bet.
If inflation data unexpectedly rebounds, the Fed may be forced to maintain its current stance, with "higher for longer" continuing to suppress risk asset liquidity, putting pressure on both stock and crypto markets simultaneously.
🧠 Core judgment:
Major market cycle turning points in history have almost always been accompanied by significant shifts in Fed policy paths. The current tension between the "hawkish stance vs. weak employment" is the most influential macro variable in today's market. The outcome of this showdown is very likely to become the key catalyst driving the next major moves in $BTC, $ETH, and the entire crypto market.
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？
$BTC $ETH On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips
Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction."
In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once.
Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence.
The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive.
Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation.
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes:
1. Employment data significantly strengthens
The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes.
2. Employment data significantly weakens
Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls.
3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot
This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation.
Practical advice for ordinary traders
① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges.
② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle.
③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform.
Personal market thoughts:
🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment
🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern
🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes
🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention
📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite
🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment
💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METISReview of historical patterns in US stock market behavior after Nonfarm Payrolls releases
Nonfarm Payrolls is not simply "good data = stock market rises, bad data = stock market falls"; the market direction is determined by the current Federal Reserve policy cycle; currently in a "high interest rate maintenance, cautious about restarting rate hikes" environment, the mainstream logic is: strong Nonfarm Payrolls are bearish for growth stocks, weak Nonfarm Payrolls theoretically bullish for growth stocks.
1. Four monetary policy cycles with completely opposite market logics (the biggest historical pattern)
1) Rate hike cycle / high interest rate stalemate phase (current environment in 2026, referencing 2022 and first half of 2026)
✅ Market mainline: Good news is bad news
- Nonfarm Payrolls significantly stronger than expected: hot employment → sticky inflation → rising rate hike expectations, US Treasury yields surge
Bearish for: Nasdaq, semiconductors, Micron, SOXL, KORU and other long-duration growth assets
Historical typical case: June 5, 2026 Nonfarm far exceeded expectations
Nasdaq dropped 4.18%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 10.26%, chip sector lost trillions in market cap in a single day.
- Nonfarm Payrolls significantly weaker than expected: cooling employment → easing rate hike expectations, yields decline, growth stocks have room for recovery.
2) Rate cut expectation cycle (first half of 2024)
Mainline: moderate economic slowdown favors Fed rate cuts
- Nonfarm weak: bullish for tech growth;
- Nonfarm extremely strong: market worries about too strong economic resilience, delaying rate cuts, tech stocks under short-term pressure.
3) Economic overheating boom, low inflation cycle (2017–early 2019)
Logic returns to traditional understanding: strong employment means better corporate profits, better Nonfarm means easier stock market gains.
4) Recession panic cycle (2008, early 2020 pandemic)
Mainline: fear of economic depression
Worse Nonfarm, more market panic, stock market falls simultaneously; at this time "bad data is no longer bullish."
2. Classic intraday Nonfarm price action (repeated for decades, key to watch)
1. Impulse traps for bulls/bears, 15–30 minute reversals (most frequent trap)
Algorithmic trading quickly pushes price up/down according to data direction; retail chases orders, then major funds sell against sentiment.
Many historical cases: Nonfarm far below expectations, Nasdaq spikes instantly then steadily falls (bullish news realized and sold off).
2. Data component divergence, wide oscillation, long/short double sell-off
New jobs, unemployment rate, and wages contradict each other.
Example: new jobs very weak, but average hourly wages exceed expectations. Market first buys tech on "weak Nonfarm," then realizes wages push inflation, plunges again, triggering stop-loss sweeps.
👉 Practical tip: avoid heavy positions in first 5–15 minutes after data release.
3. Data meets expectations → narrow oscillation, return to original trend
Nonfarm within expected range, rate expectations almost unchanged, short-term volatility limited, market continues pre-data main trend.
3. Sector differentiated historical performance (focus on semiconductors/storage)
1. Nasdaq, Philadelphia Semiconductor SOX, storage chips (Micron, Hynix)
Most sensitive to US Treasury yields, volatility much greater than Dow Jones.
- Strong Nonfarm: semiconductor declines usually more than twice the market;
- Weak Nonfarm: strongest rebound elasticity, but prone to "impulse then profit-taking."
Leveraged ETFs (SOXL, KORU) amplify volatility further.
2. Dow Jones, high dividend value stocks
Relatively resistant in rising rate environment; preferred for risk-averse capital rotation.
3. Korea KOSPI, SK Hynix, KORU linkage pattern
US tech decline → Korean semiconductor pressured;
When Nonfarm triggers USD strength, foreign capital tends to exit Korean market, doubly suppressing KORU.
4. Recent landmark historical cases (directly comparable to tonight's market environment)
1. June 5, 2026 | Nonfarm far exceeded expectations (172K vs expected 85K)
Market immediately priced in rate hike restart: 10-year yield surged, Nasdaq plunged, SOX down 10%, Micron and storage stocks heavily hit.
👉 Reference: if tonight's Nonfarm significantly exceeds 83K, this script may replay.
2. Early July 2026 | Nonfarm far below expectations (57K)
Theoretically bullish for growth, but extreme divergence occurred:
Dow hit new highs, gold surged; Nasdaq and semiconductors continued falling.
Important warning:
Macro is only a valuation factor; if sector is in profit-taking phase, bullish data cannot reverse downtrend.
3. September 2024 | Nonfarm severely missed expectations
US Treasury yields declined, Nasdaq and AI chips kept rallying, forming a continuous uptrend, a "consensus of expectations and sector trend."
5. Five practical trading rules from historical market summary (adapt to your trading instruments)
1. Don't just watch new jobs, wage growth > everything
Fed currently most fears wage inflation; even if jobs weak, rising hourly wages remain hawkish, suppressing tech stocks.
2. Distinguish "short-term impulse" from "trend reversal"
Most Nonfarm only causes intraday volatility, rarely changes mid-term sector trends. Storage chips mid-term depend on DRAM/NAND spot prices and AI capital expenditure.
3. Leveraged products (SOXL, KORU) must avoid holding positions betting on data
Once rollercoaster moves occur, two-way stop losses easily cause continuous losses; leveraged losses huge in choppy markets.
4. Beware of "expectations priced in early"
ADP small Nonfarm already weak, market priced in weak Nonfarm early;
If data only slightly below expectations, easy to see "buy the rumor, sell the fact" spike and fall.
5. Strong/weak watershed observation method
Don't directly bet on direction, wait 30 minutes to confirm price holds key support/resistance, then follow trend.
6. Concise summary
Current high interest rate environment:
✅ Nonfarm far exceeds expectations → tech and storage under pressure
✅ Significantly below expectations → theoretically bullish for tech, but beware spike and fall
✅ Neutral data → choppy consolidation, best to wait and see
If you need, I can combine tonight's 20:30 data with historical scenarios to immediately analyze response strategies for Micron, Hynix, KORU, SOXL. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ The probability of a rate hike in September has already exceeded half. The latest data from CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 56.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 43.5%. The market is betting real money that Waller will take action. The core variable driving this probability change comes from a report by the Financial Times. Insiders revealed that if the inflation data released in the coming weeks is strong and the market's expectations for rising borrowing costs also increase, Waller is prepared to raise rates at the September meeting. The report also disclosed that Waller admitted to communication mistakes early in his tenure: first, failing to repeatedly emphasize commitment to maintaining price stability, which led the market to doubt whether he took inflation seriously enough; second, not clearly separating the long-term Fed reforms from the immediate rate decisions, causing market confusion. But he will not abandon the path of streamlining forward guidance—he is ready to fix communication but will not hand the market a rate roadmap again. Waller believes that bond fund managers truly responsible for investing understand his approach, while the harshest criticism comes from commentators. In his view, last week's sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market was not a serious credibility crisis but the market adapting to new communication rules. He will give his first public speech at this year's Jackson Hole symposium to explain the logic behind this change. The market is being driven by a brand-new Fed communication style—not "listening to what the Fed says" but "watching how the data moves and guessing what the Fed will do." Pricing under this model is more prone to sharp swings. 56.Hormuz Deadlock Difficult to Resolve, Crypto Market Under Pressure and Volatile — In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum Trading Strategies on August 7
On August 7, 2026, the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalated to a critical stage. Iran's parliament is reviewing a management draft that proposes banning US and Israeli vessels from passing and imposing fines up to 20% of cargo value. The US quickly rejected this and emphasized that the strait "should not have any obstacles." Both sides hold diametrically opposed positions, making substantive negotiation progress unlikely. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has been consolidating with shrinking volume near $64,500, while Ethereum's volatility is only around a dozen points, reflecting a typical geopolitical risk suppression pattern in the market. This article analyzes the core logic of current trading strategies based on the latest situation and technical analysis.
1. Strait of Hormuz: A Geopolitical Standoff with No Winner
1.1 Positions of Both Sides: Unyielding "Parallel Lines"
The core conflict in US-Iran negotiations centers on control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's parliament is reviewing a draft that explicitly bans US and Israeli vessels from passing, with violators facing fines up to 20% of cargo value. Iranian Foreign Minister Alaghezi stated that talks with Oman have entered the "final stage" and emphasized that "the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-war situation in February this year where passage was free of charge." Notably, Iran has established a "semi-official maritime toll system" requiring passage fees paid in RMB or cryptocurrency, with a VLCC oil tanker carrying 2 million barrels paying up to $2 million per passage.
On the US side, former President Trump's statements reflect a typical "negotiation plus pressure" dual-track strategy. He claimed "the war with Iran will end soon" and "an agreement may be reached soon," while emphasizing "the strait is currently open to some extent, controlled by us," and revealed "unlimited arms supply." US Treasury Secretary Bassent even said "an agreement with Iran might be reached tomorrow," but as of August 7, this expectation remains unfulfilled.
Core judgment: There is a fundamental contradiction in the statements of both sides. Iran pursues a paid passage system under sovereign jurisdiction, while the US insists on the principle of free navigation under international law. This structural conflict makes a short-term agreement highly unlikely.
1.2 Strait Status: Passage Volume Plummets to Nearly Zero
According to Caixin data, as of August 3, only 4 vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz were traceable. COSCO Shipping's platform shows that last week (July 27–August 2), total vessel passages in the Persian Gulf were 89, down about 12.75% week-on-week. This contrasts sharply with the normal daily passage of dozens of vessels, indicating that although the strait is "open to some extent," actual traffic has shrunk significantly.
Regarding oil prices, Brent crude fell more than 5% consecutively in early August due to optimistic negotiation expectations, dropping below $80 per barrel from a previous peak of $100, a 20% decline. However, this drop mainly reflects short-term sentiment correction rather than a substantive easing of geopolitical risks. If negotiations break down again, oil prices could rebound at any time.
2. Crypto Market: Typical Pattern of Geopolitical Suppression
2.1 Bitcoin: $65,000 Resistance Forms an "Iron Ceiling"
Historical data shows Bitcoin closed at $64,597 on August 5, currently fluctuating narrowly around $64,500. Technically, the $65,000 level has formed very strong resistance—multiple failed attempts have created a classic bearish divergence structure.
Seasonal factors are also concerning. Bitcoin has closed higher in July for three consecutive years (2024, 2025, 2026), but August's historical median return is -7.87%, the worst single month of the year, with an average return of only -0.64%. Since 2022, August monthly candles have typically closed bearish.
On the capital side, institutional demand has clearly cooled. Weekly net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs dropped sharply from a high of $197 million on July 10 to $33.79 million on July 24, a decline of 83%. This means institutional investors have not significantly sold off but their willingness to enter has greatly weakened.
2.2 Ethereum: Volatility Hits Recent Lows
Ethereum's performance is even more subdued, currently fluctuating only about a dozen or twenty points around the $1900 range, almost "frozen." The $1930 resistance is also effective, with market participants choosing to wait amid major geopolitical uncertainty.
Such extreme volume contraction often signals an imminent breakout. The breakout direction depends on geopolitical developments—if US-Iran conflict escalates, the probability of a downside break increases significantly; if an unexpected agreement is reached, it could trigger a short squeeze rebound.
3. Trading Strategies: Patiently Hold Shorts, Strict Risk Control on Longs
3.1 Short Strategy (Main Strategy)
Bitcoin: Short on rebounds between $64,600–$65,000; conservative traders wait for $65,500–$66,000 zone. Stop loss near $66,500. First target $63,800–$63,200; if broken, look for $62,800–$62,500–$62,200. If further breakdown occurs, move stop loss to lock in profits.
Ethereum: Short on rebounds between $1,915–$1,940; conservative entry near $1,970. Stop loss at $2,000. First target $1,850–$1,820; if broken, look for $1,800–$1,770.
Core logic: Until the $65,000/$1,930 resistance is effectively broken, the bearish pattern remains. Geopolitical risk acts as a "ceiling," limiting rebound space.
3.2 Long Strategy (Auxiliary/Short-term)
Bitcoin: Light long positions on pullbacks to $61,700–$62,200, stop loss at $61,000. Targets $63,000–$63,500; if broken, look for $64,500.
Ethereum: Light long positions on pullbacks to $1,780–$1,800, stop loss at $1,750. Targets $1,830–$1,860; if broken, look for $1,900–$1,930.
Key reminder: Long positions are only for short-term rebounds; do not heavily position before geopolitical clarity. It is recommended to set breakeven stops on shorts when possible; if stopped out, wait for better entry points.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH $SNDK