Orbit Post Sitemap
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
⚠️Personal opinion exchange, not investment advice
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated: If inflation continues to rise, rate hikes will be considered in September.
ADP employment data has worsened, but because of the Chair's hawkish remarks, the market has fully priced in a rate hike in September.
💡My core view: One sentence from the Chair can disrupt the short-term market, but I won’t open positions just based on speeches. I still prefer to short on rallies and patiently wait for solid inflation and employment data.
Warsh’s casual remarks can turn the market upside down, but this is just a conditional verbal statement, not a confirmed rate hike.
Only if inflation again exceeds expectations will a September rate hike really be discussed.
The Fed has to balance both ends: if inflation rises, it wants to hike rates to suppress it; but if employment collapses quickly, it won’t dare to hike rates recklessly.
$BTC is easily shaken by news, but the medium-term trend depends on U.S. Treasury yields and real macro data, not on what officials say.
In practice, don’t get impulsive and heavily short just because of hawkish news. Treat news as mere gossip; data releases are the real signals to act.
I personally prioritize CPI/PCE; inflation is my most important indicator; non-farm payrolls are just to see if employment can hold up. I continue with the strategy of shorting on rallies, and if inflation data disappoints, I will decisively cut losses.
The macro environment is volatile now, easily swayed by a single news item. Sticking to your original trading plan is most important. Are non-farm payroll data really useful? If the data is weak, the probability of a rate hike in September could fall below 50%, and Bitcoin might get a breather.
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
If the data is strong, the dollar will strengthen, rate hike expectations will rise, and risk assets may come under pressure again. But Ernst & Young says that even if the non-farm payroll data is released, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates unchanged until the end of the year.
The reason is that "the labor market remains stable and is unlikely to change the Fed's policy focus." Only if inflation broadens and continues to rise might the Fed be forced to change its stance.
The question is—will cooling employment eventually transmit to inflation? If employment continues to weaken but inflation stays above 3%, the Fed will face a dilemma: raising rates will worsen employment, but not raising rates will fail to contain inflation. This is the risk of "stagflation." Wash's current strategy is—if inflation doesn't come down, there will be no easing. Employment data can be weak, but if inflation doesn't come down, nothing will change. Non-farm payroll data affects short-term sentiment, not the Fed's medium-term path. The contradiction between weak employment and strong inflation is becoming the biggest challenge for the Federal Reserve.
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
Employment data is cooling down, but wages are still rising, and service prices are not coming down.
Structural inflation remains, but it has shifted from the demand side to the wage side. Walsh's hawkish stance is clear—price stability is the primary goal, employment is secondary.
The market expects 83,000 new nonfarm jobs in July. If the data meets expectations, the Federal Reserve will have more room to continue focusing on inflation. If the data is significantly below expectations, the market may briefly trade on the logic of "weaker employment → Fed easing." But EY's judgment is: as long as inflation does not come down, even weak employment data will not change the Fed's policy focus.
Bitcoin is currently around 64,400; the market is quiet before the nonfarm data release. Don't take heavy positions before the direction emerges. If the data is weak, Bitcoin may bounce to 65,000 or even 66,000. If the data is strong, the 63,000-64,000 range will likely be tested. Wait for the data before making judgments; one night won't make a difference. @币圈超短王马大帅 Full Analysis of US July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)｜Crypto Market Reference (Announced 2026.08.07 20:30) #Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings, Is the AI Memory Bull Market Still Stable?
I. Basic Core Information
1. Announcement Time: 20:30 Beijing Time, August 7 (Tonight)
2. Issuing Agency: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. Three Core Indicators (All Required, Wages > New Employment)
① Nonfarm Payrolls (Core headline data)
② Unemployment Rate
③ Average Hourly Earnings (Core inflation, directly affects Fed policy inclination)
4. Benchmark Values
◦ Previous Value (June): 57,000
◦ Market Consensus Expectation: 80,000
◦ Unemployment Rate Expectation: 4.3% (Previous 4.2%)
◦ Hourly Wage YoY Expectation Slightly Upward
II. Underlying Logic of Price Movements (Common in Crypto)
Nonfarm Employment Data Strength → Fed Rate Cut Expectation → USD Index, US Treasury Yield Fluctuations → Pricing of BTC, ETH and other Cryptocurrencies
1. Nonfarm Significantly Exceeds Expectations (>100,000 + Rising Wages) = Bearish for Crypto
Employment data is strong, inflation easing is hindered, market lowers September rate cut probability, USD strengthens, capital flees risk assets, BTC and ETH quickly drop, contracts prone to flash crashes and cascading liquidations.
2. Nonfarm Below Expectations (<70,000 + Weakening Wages) = Bullish for Crypto
Weak employment reflects economic pressure, market bets on accelerated Fed rate cuts, liquidity easing expectations rise, mainstream coins rally sharply in short term.
3. Data Meets Expectations (75,000–90,000) = Wide Range Volatility
Clear divergence between bulls and bears, market oscillates with flash spikes, weak single-direction trend.
Key Misconception
Do not only look at new employment numbers: overall employment is stable, but sharply rising wages still indicate bearish market, as wage inflation is a key Fed control target. Also, last month’s employment data revisions can directly reverse short-term market trends.
III. Three Scenario Market Forecasts (Current ETH price about 1900 USDT, BTC moves synchronously)
Scenario 1: Strong Data (New ≥100,000, Bearish Downtrend)
• BTC first support: 62200, break below targets strong support at 60800
• ETH short-term supports: 1870, 1840
Scenario 2: Weak Data (New ≤70,000, Bullish Uptrend)
• BTC resistances: 65300, 66100
• ETH short-term resistances: 1930, 1960
Scenario 3: Meets Expectations (78,000–88,000, Range-bound)
BTC range: 62500–65000
ETH range: 1875–1935
IV. Preliminary Forward Reference
Previous ADP small nonfarm and weekly initial jobless claims data were slightly strong, market maintained narrow consolidation before NFP. Once actual data deviates significantly from expectations, market volatility will noticeably increase. 📊 $RE Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, short-term bulls were crushed mercilessly, but mid-to-long-term shorts suffered a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $2455.89
Long position liquidations about $2455.89
Short position liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $5625.23
Long position liquidations about $4598.13
Short position liquidations about $1027.10
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $74,300
Long position liquidations about $23,600
Short position liquidations about $50,700
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $94,600
Long position liquidations about $39,400
Short position liquidations about $55,200
From the $RE liquidation data, in the 1-hour window, long liquidations crushed shorts, with shorts at zero, indicating a fierce short-squeeze opening; in 4 hours, long advantage continued but narrowed, ratio about 4.5 times, with a full long liquidation outbreak; in 12 hours, the direction completely reversed, short liquidations crushed longs, shorts were 2.15 times longs, a full short squeeze outbreak; in 24 hours, short advantage persisted, ratio about 1.4 times. The market makers on RE completed a fierce turnaround from long liquidation to short squeeze — short-term longs were targeted and blasted, mid-to-long-term shorts were wiped out, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $94,000. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "expectations maxed out, flaws must be punished" — "exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Bigger the Boom, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-over-year increase of 557%.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance — next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the performance is" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real — as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged a drawdown of about 40%; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes in the same direction since 2016 — three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months — "weak employment, strong prices" formed a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: Classic "Bad News Is Good News" Scenario
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already released unlocking pressure in advance; new selling was effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. However, the alert is not over — another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million shares are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth was exchanged for a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. When beating expectations has become standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified — old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ On August 6th, the earnings reports from SanDisk and Western Digital dragged down the entire storage sector. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
SanDisk reported revenue of 8.965 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 51%, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $39.25.
Western Digital reported revenue of 3.747 billion, up 44% year-over-year, with earnings per share of $3.56.
These figures would be legendary in any normal year. Yet SanDisk’s stock fell 6.8%, Western Digital’s dropped 13%, and Micron was also dragged down.
The problem lies in the guidance. SanDisk’s Q1 revenue guidance midpoint is 10.55 billion, below market expectations. The quarter-over-quarter growth rate drops from 51% to about 17%. The market wanted "continued acceleration," but SanDisk delivered "slowing growth." This is the essence of an "earnings kill"—it’s not that the performance is bad, but that market expectations have been raised to the ceiling.
Wu Hao, fund manager at Founder Fubon, put it bluntly: "The negative factors for both companies are not at the performance level, but at the expectation gap level." Goldman Sachs also said that market expectations were overly elevated, so a flat guidance would be interpreted as a negative signal. The storage sector is currently highly divided. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
Citibank says supply chain inventory is low and capacity cannot meet demand, maintaining an optimistic forecast.
Zhang Jingsong from China Asset Management says this storage cycle is different from before—AI demand is extremely strong and prices are expected to stabilize at a high level.
Morgan Stanley says memory contract prices will peak in Q4, but prices will not immediately plunge.
Xia Junjie from Renqiao Private Equity says the storage industry has likely already peaked, and the extremely profitable phase will inevitably be short-lived.
Both bulls and bears agree that storage giants have strong performance; the disagreement lies in the sustainability of this strength. The Chief Investment Officer of Pave Finance said: "Explosive profit growth is unsustainable; the bigger question is whether profit margins can be maintained."
SanDisk's NBM long-term agreement model is the biggest variable. As of Q4, eight long-term agreements have been signed, covering eight clients, with minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion. SanDisk is transforming from a cyclical stock into an infrastructure company with visible long-term revenue. If the NBM model succeeds, the logic of the storage cycle will be rewritten. However, long-term contracts are a moat in an upcycle but may become a shackle in a downcycle. The Asia-Pacific market crashed simultaneously on August 6th — Kioxia and SK Hynix both fell over 10%. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
The global storage sector is resonating in unison, and the issue has been brought to the forefront: Is the AI-driven storage boom "on the way" or "near its end"?
The core variable in this storage cycle is HBM. HBM capacity is basically sold out through 2026, with Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta continuously expanding data centers. HBM4 is entering the mass shipment phase, and the tight supply-demand situation in storage will not change in the short term. However, the market has already priced in expectations for 2026-2027. SanDisk has surged over 460% this year, Western Digital about 200%. Stock prices have already prepaid growth for the next one to two years. SanDisk's earnings report proves that AI storage demand truly exists, but demand existing and stock prices continuing to rise are two different things. This round of correction in the storage sector is not due to fundamental problems but a recalibration of valuation and expectations. The AI memory bull market is not over yet, but the phase of "buying storage stocks blindly to make money" is already past.Bitcoin BTC Real-Time Trend
Daily: Price stands above 64000, above the 50-day moving average (≈63275) and the 200-day moving average (≈61480), but is capped below the middle Bollinger Band (≈64350); RSI14≈48–50 neutral, MACD shows a very short bullish crossover below zero line with red bars, indicating continued oversold recovery without reversal. The large range 62200–64500 remains unbroken.
4H: Pushed up to 64300–64500 then pulled back, Bollinger Bands narrowing (upper band ≈64500 / middle band ≈63500), MACD bullish crossover with shrinking bars; 1H repeatedly stays above EMA20-50 (63900–64100), bulls tried three times at 64300 but failed, consolidating at the high 64180.
Drivers: US-Iran easing + oil price drop + lower inflation expectations, Nasdaq led BTC rebound from 62250; Spot ETF net inflow of $170 million on 8/4 (IBIT +$111.4 million) ended three consecutive withdrawals, but price rose while positions remained flat (24h holdings slightly down), indicating short covering + ETF replenishment rather than new leveraged longs, sustainability questionable; Fear & Greed index 27–31 still in fear zone.
Relative to ETH: ETH holds at 1866, ETH/BTC remains low at 0.0291, BTC dominance unchanged.
Technical levels (short-term, not investment advice)
Resistance: 64300–64500 (4H upper band + last three days' resistance zone, only consider testing 65000 if volume breaks and holds) → 65000–65300 (psychological level + previous daily highs) → 66200 (heavier resistance on larger timeframe)
Bull/Bear dividing line: 63500 (4H middle band + intraday strength line, also last defense before 50-day MA at 63275)
Support: 63275–63000 (50-day MA + round number support) → 62500 (previous low concentration) → 62200 (break below signals daily bearish shift targeting 61000)
Rhythm judgment (not investment advice)
Hold 63500 + volume breakout above 64300 → test 64500–65000, daily recovery continuation;
Fail to hold 64180 repeatedly, fall back below 63500 → retest 63275, further break targets 62500;
Tonight 20:15 US ADP + 22:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing are this week's first major repricing events, 64000 round number is purely emotional level, stop losses on both sides at 64300/63500 before data are prone to be triggered by spikes.@币圈超短王马大帅 US July Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Full Analysis | Crypto Market Reference (Published 2026.08.07 20:30) #存储股财报后下挫, Is the AI Memory Bull Market Still Stable?
1. Basic Core Information
1. Announcement time: August 7, 20:30 Beijing time (tonight)
2. Issuing Authority: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. Three core indicators (all indispensable: salary > new employment)
(1) Nonfarm Payroll Additions (Core Header Data)
(2) Unemployment rate
(3) Average hourly wages (inflation core, directly affecting Fed policy bias)
4. Benchmark values
◦ Previous value (June): 57,000
◦ Market consensus expectation: 80,000
◦ Unemployment rate forecast: 4.3% (previous value 4.2%)
◦ Hourly wage expectations rose slightly year-on-year
2. The underlying logic behind price movements (common in the crypto community)
The strength of nonfarm payroll data → expectations for Fed rate cuts → the dollar index, fluctuations in US Treasury yields→ and pricing of cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH
1. Non-farm payrolls far exceed expectations (>100,000 + rising wages) = negative for the crypto sector
Employment data is booming, inflation is hindering a decline, the market lowers the probability of a rate cut in September, the dollar strengthens, capital flees into risky assets, BTC and ETH are rapidly declining, and contracts are prone to chain liquidations.
2. Nonfarm payrolls below expectations (<70,000 + weakening wages) = positive for the crypto sector
Weakening employment reflects economic pressure, with the market betting on the Fed accelerating rate cuts, rising expectations for liquidity easing, and major currencies surging rapidly in the short term.
3. Data matches expectations (75,000–90,000) = wide fluctuations
The divergence between bulls and bears is obvious, with the market oscillating back and forth, and the one-sided trend is weak.
Key misconceptions
Don't focus solely on new jobs: overall employment is stable, but wages have risen sharply, which is still bearish. Wage inflation is a key target for the Fed's control. At the same time, last month's revised employment data will directly reverse the short-term market trend.
3. Market Prediction for Three Scenarios (Current ETH Price about 1900 USDT, BTC Synchronized Linkage)
Scenario 1: Strong data (100,000 new ≥, bearish downtrend)
• BTC first support: 62,200; if it breaks below 60,800, strong support is needed
• ETH short-term support: 1870, 1840
Scenario 2: Weak data (70,000 new ≤, positive news for upward movement)
• BTC resistance: 65,300, 66,100
• ETH short-term resistance: 1930, 1960
Scenario 3: As expected (78,000–88,000 RMB, range-bound)
BTC fluctuation range: 62,500–65,000
ETH volatility range: 1875–1935
4. Forward-looking reference
Earlier, ADP small nonfarm payrolls and weekly initial jobless claims data were slightly strong, maintaining a narrow consolidation before the nonfarm payroll. If the actual data and expectations deviate significantly, market fluctuations will significantly amplify. #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
Don't be fooled by the positive earnings report of SPCX. Although revenue increased by 92%, the massive capital expenditure of 18.37 billion (especially on AI infrastructure) scared the market—a typical case of "good news fully priced in turns into bad news."
The real risk is the unlocking of shares. The first batch of 911.5 million shares has become tradable, but the negative impact is far from over. Internal cost basis is mostly between $1-$5, while the current price of 114 still represents tens of times profit. Never believe "the bad news is fully priced in"—chips eligible for unlocking can be dumped anytime on the second or third day if not sold on the first. That vague "I think so" has trapped countless people above 120; the lesson remains.
The current 114 is not the bottom; it is just a pause in the short-covering battle on the unlocking day. Any slight disturbance (such as macro weakness or announcement of the next unlocking batch) will instantly turn the 900 million shares' wait-and-see holders into panic sellers, triggering a snowball effect. Not falling below 105 was not a mistake, and not rushing at 114 is also reasonable, but the logic must be clear: it’s not "good news protection," but "selling pressure is not over." Watch the 108-110 support zone closely; if broken, expect a drop to previous lows. There are staggered unlockings in late August and September. Until then, all rebounds are escape windows provided by insiders, not reversal signals. $SPCX $XSPCX Terafab did not come out of nowhere. #特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂
In April this year, Tesla already started the R&D wafer fab ATCF in Texas as a preliminary stage for Terafab.
In early August, aerial construction footage of ATCF was revealed, showing rapid progress. The two factories are about 100 miles apart.
Terafab is located in Grimes County, near SpaceX's important operational base in Texas.
Musk said on X: "The number of chips Tesla and SpaceX will need in the future will far exceed the current and future global production capacity." Translated, this means—external suppliers are insufficient, so they have to make their own.
But $16.8 billion is just the beginning. SpaceX's listing documents show Terafab is still in the overall planning framework, with cumulative investment in multiple future phases possibly reaching $119 billion. The financial report was just hit with a 13.6% drop due to high capital expenditure, but the stock price rebounded 6% on the unlock day. The market can accept the $16.8 billion first-phase investment, but the $119 billion long-term plan will make the market recalculate SpaceX's burn rate. If the AI chip fab continues to require huge capital injections, SpaceX's free cash flow may be negative for a long time. In the short term, this is a narrative catalyst; in the medium to long term, it is a balance sheet pressure.Another signal from Terafab is that Elon Musk is deeply integrating the supply chains of SpaceX and Tesla.
#特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂
The chip demands of the two companies are merged into one factory, covering everything from logic chips to DRAM storage to packaging and testing, all under one roof.
With an annual capacity of 1 terawatt, according to Musk, this is 50 times the current global capacity. This goal means that if Terafab operates at full capacity, it could disrupt the existing chip supply landscape.
But for Tesla and SpaceX, the real strategic value lies in no longer having to compete with others for capacity. TSMC and Samsung's production schedules are booked years in advance; building their own factory is expensive but guarantees supply. Spending $16.8 billion for independent chip supply is clearly a worthwhile investment in Musk's view.
After the announcement, SPCX's stock price rebounded 6.14% on the lock-up expiration day. The market's pricing is: burning cash is acceptable as long as you prove it creates long-term competitiveness. Terafab is part of that proof. But the capital market won't just look at the narrative; it will also watch cash flow. What changes will occur in SpaceX and Tesla's balance sheets after spending $16.8 billion is something the market will repeatedly calculate in the coming months.#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
I am the mid-term intelligence analyst. I see very clearly this drop in storage stocks after earnings reports—Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk had explosive earnings but faced a "earnings report sell-off." This is not the end of the AI memory bull market; it is a "valuation pullback after expectations were overfilled."
The mid-term logic remains intact: the HBM supply-demand gap still exists, cloud providers' capital expenditures in 2026 are still high year-over-year, DRAM contract prices are expected to rise more than 10% in Q3, and 70% of advanced capacity at original manufacturers is locked in HBM and enterprise-level products, squeezing traditional DRAM. What fell was the "hope for continued gross margin upgrades," not the underlying demand for "AI requiring memory." Morgan Stanley says the price increase slope will slow in Q4 2026 and profit upgrades will peak, which is a mid-to-late cycle characteristic, not a crash.
My mid-term judgment: the AI memory supercycle is not over, but the blind broad rally phase is over. Next is differentiation—leaders with real HBM capacity and long-term contract locks, a pullback is a buying opportunity; module manufacturers purely speculating on DRAM spot elasticity should be cautious about Q4 guidance reversals. Watch three signals: cloud providers' Capex cuts, loosening of HBM long-term contracts, and DRAM contract prices falling for two consecutive quarters—none have appeared yet.
$SNDK
$MU #Uniswap's Launchpad Entry: Can UNI Open a New Narrative?
Robinhood Chain has been live for just over a month, and Uniswap has already facilitated $12.8 billion in trading volume on this chain, becoming Uniswap's second-largest market after the Ethereum mainnet.
The launch of Pools.trade means Uniswap is no longer content with just being a trading venue after token issuance; it wants to participate directly in the entire token issuance process.
For UNI holders, the most critical aspect is the fee switch. The V4 fee switch annually burns about $90 million worth of UNI. The larger the trading volume on Pools.trade, the more UNI is burned, strengthening the expectation of supply deflation. But the question is—how sustainable is the trading volume on Robinhood Chain? The essence of launchpad business is "new token issuance → short-term speculation → move to the next." If the pace of new token issuance slows down, Pools.trade's trading volume will also decline.
The real competition Uniswap faces is whether it can establish a stronger launchpad network effect on Robinhood Chain than Flap and Pons. On the first day, it launched 6,000 tokens, indeed more than the combined total of the three competitors. But the core competitiveness of a launchpad lies in its ability to continuously attract quality projects. If it’s just a place for low-quality tokens, its long-term value is limited. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Both SanDisk and Western Digital exceeded expectations in their earnings, but both plunged—one dropped nearly 7 points, the other plunged 13 points. SanDisk's revenue guidance was weak, gross margin showed signs of peaking, Goldman Sachs directly lowered its target price, and Western Digital did the same. The same goes for Western Digital. If there's a slight flaw, capital pours in. The fundamental reason for this round of decline is that market confidence in the AI hardware sector is weakening. Beating expectations is standard; only if it exceeds expectations does it pass. If guidance loosens a bit, it's a sign of respect for the first drop. This isn't a healthy adjustment It's the systematic withdrawal of funds. Storage is one of the core links in AI hardware. The sector remains under pressure, indicating that the overall AI infrastructure narrative is cooling down. Funds are shifting from highly elastic assets toward more certain directions. When risk appetite tightens, all highly elastic assets won't have an easy time. If storage continues to fall, after funds withdraw from AI hardware, they will most likely flow into US Treasuries or cash. The chain reaction of selling off highly elastic assets is not over yet. Is the AI memory bull market stable? Long-term demand has indeed not stopped. HBM is still expanding, and NBM contracts are still being signed But the market doesn't look at the long term; it focuses on marginal changes. Gross margins have peaked, and guidance is weak. These signals are already enough to make funds rush in first. The earnings season isn't over yet; there are still a few more companies to release. It's not too late to wait until the impact of this round of earnings and guidance has been absorbed before watching. Reaching out now is easy to catch halfway up the mountain. #Storagestocks plunged after earnings, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment suppress inflation? #财报观察员: Rebound after lifting restrictionsPools.trade's zero-fee model is very aggressive.
#Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？
Competitors charge 1%-5% launch fees, but Uniswap goes straight to zero.
This is not charity; it's a market share grab.
Pools.trade does not charge directly at the launch stage but captures value through the V4 fee switch. After the project token is listed, a portion of the trading fees on Uniswap will be burned. This means Uniswap doesn't need to make money from launch fees but relies on subsequent DEX trading volume.
This move is a dimensionality reduction strike against competitors. Flap and Pons depend on launch fee income, while Uniswap can use zero fees to snatch their project teams and users, then monetize through subsequent trading volume. If this model works, UNI's value capture logic will be rewritten—not just DEX trading volume but also the traffic entry value of the launchpad. UNI's current price is $4.14, with EMA50 support at 4.01, MACD golden cross at 0.01 maintaining a bullish outlook, and RSI at 57.24 still has room to rise. The market is watching to see if Pools.trade can turn UNI from a "governance token" into an "asset supported by real income." @币圈超短王马大帅 Full Analysis of US July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)｜Crypto Market Reference (Announced 2026.08.07 20:30) #Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings, Is the AI Memory Bull Market Still Stable?
I. Basic Core Information
1. Announcement Time: 20:30 Beijing Time, August 7 (Tonight)
2. Issuing Agency: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. Three Core Indicators (All Required, Wages > New Employment)
① Nonfarm Payrolls (Core headline data)
② Unemployment Rate
③ Average Hourly Earnings (Core inflation, directly affects Fed policy inclination)
4. Benchmark Values
◦ Previous Value (June): 57,000
◦ Market Consensus Expectation: 80,000
◦ Unemployment Rate Expectation: 4.3% (Previous 4.2%)
◦ Hourly Wage YoY Expectation Slightly Upward
II. Underlying Logic of Price Movements (Common in Crypto)
Nonfarm Employment Data Strength → Fed Rate Cut Expectation → USD Index, US Treasury Yield Fluctuations → Pricing of BTC, ETH and other Cryptocurrencies
1. Nonfarm Significantly Exceeds Expectations (>100,000 + Rising Wages) = Bearish for Crypto
Employment data is strong, inflation easing is hindered, market lowers September rate cut probability, USD strengthens, capital flees risk assets, BTC and ETH quickly drop, contracts prone to flash crashes and cascading liquidations.
2. Nonfarm Below Expectations (<70,000 + Weakening Wages) = Bullish for Crypto
Weak employment reflects economic pressure, market bets on accelerated Fed rate cuts, liquidity easing expectations rise, mainstream coins rally sharply in short term.
3. Data Meets Expectations (75,000–90,000) = Wide Range Volatility
Clear divergence between bulls and bears, market oscillates with flash spikes, weak single-direction trend.
Key Misconception
Do not only look at new employment numbers: overall employment is stable, but sharply rising wages still indicate bearish market, as wage inflation is a key Fed control target. Also, last month’s employment data revisions can directly reverse short-term market trends.
III. Three Scenario Market Forecasts (Current ETH price about 1900 USDT, BTC moves synchronously)
Scenario 1: Strong Data (New ≥100,000, Bearish Downtrend)
• BTC first support: 62200, break below targets strong support at 60800
• ETH short-term supports: 1870, 1840
Scenario 2: Weak Data (New ≤70,000, Bullish Uptrend)
• BTC resistances: 65300, 66100
• ETH short-term resistances: 1930, 1960
Scenario 3: Meets Expectations (78,000–88,000, Range-bound)
BTC range: 62500–65000
ETH range: 1875–1935
IV. Preliminary Forward Reference
Previous ADP small nonfarm and weekly initial jobless claims data were slightly strong, market maintained narrow consolidation before NFP. Once actual data deviates significantly from expectations, market volatility will noticeably increase. On August 7th, Alphabet did something big — issued $25 billion in bonds.
The subscription scale directly reached $115 billion, more than four times the amount.
What does this mean? It's even larger than the recent bond subscription scales of Amazon and SpaceX. Investors verbally complain about “AI capital expenditure being too high,” yet they are frantically snapping up AI-related bonds.
This is not Alphabet's first bond issuance. They just issued $20 billion in February, and combined with bonds denominated in Swiss francs, British pounds, euros, and others, the total debt issuance exceeded $50 billion in the first half of the year, while stock issuance was nearly $85 billion. This time, there are 10 maturities covering from 2 years to 40 years. The longest maturity bond yield is 130 basis points higher than government bonds, with an initial guidance price of 155 basis points, which narrowed directly after demand surged.
Market sentiment is very contradictory. On one hand, Alphabet just raised its capital expenditure forecast to $205 billion, more than double that of 2025, directly causing free cash flow to turn negative last quarter. On the other hand, investor demand for tech bonds is warming up because Alphabet offered a yield premium 15 basis points higher than typical bond issuances this time. When the interest is sufficient, the money comes.
Alphabet also clearly told the market: it will issue U.S. dollar bonds twice a year regularly from now on. This move is deliberately to reassure the market about concerns over oversupply of tech bonds. But as the debt scale keeps growing, it will eventually erode profit margins. Whether AI can really earn back this money is the true core issue. #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 Amazon issued $25 billion just a month ago, and Meta issued $12.5 billion in data center SPV bonds through BlackRock.
Meanwhile, Google raised its 2026 AI infrastructure spending forecast to $205 billion in July.
The core question is—after spending this money, how much can be earned back? Alphabet has already issued over $50 billion in debt and nearly $85 billion in stock in the first half of the year. Given Google's credit rating, the cost of borrowing is indeed very low; $2.5 billion in interest expenses is not significant compared to nearly $200 billion in annual revenue. But investors' concerns lie in whether revenue can double as capital expenditures have doubled.
When Amazon issued bonds in March, the market reaction was lukewarm. Alphabet offered a higher yield premium this time to boost demand. The market's attitude toward AI debt is—you can borrow money, but you have to pay enough interest. Investors are not distrustful of the AI narrative; they are starting to demand higher risk compensation. Alphabet's successful bond issuance this time indicates that the AI debt market is not closed yet, but financing costs are rising. #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 Debt is only part of the story; the real pressure lies off-balance sheet.
Last week, BlackRock issued $12.5 billion in bonds linked to Meta's Texas data center SPV.
This structure bypasses the tech company's own balance sheet, transferring risk to the special purpose vehicle and bond investors.
Tech companies are financing AI infrastructure in various ways—on-balance sheet debt, off-balance sheet SPVs, and equity financing. The oversubscription of Alphabet's $25 billion bond issuance shows that market confidence in the AI narrative remains. But confidence is fragile. If by this time next year AI revenue growth does not keep pace with capital expenditure growth, debt pressure will backfire on stock prices. By 2026, AI capital expenditure will no longer be a question of "whether to invest" but "whether it can be recouped." Alphabet has played its $25 billion card; the market is waiting for it to prove it is not just burning cash.
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 🐋 Big fish swallow small fish: The first Bitcoin ETF fund in the US is not exempt from this rule.
Hashdex has just announced the closure and liquidation of its Bitcoin ETF fund, ceasing trading from 08/17 and expected to complete asset liquidation by 08/28.
At first glance, many might think this is a bad sign for Bitcoin. But I see a different story.
This is not Bitcoin failing, but a fund that is too small to compete in the game of giants.
Since BlackRock, Fidelity, and other big players joined, capital has increasingly concentrated in ETFs with high liquidity, low fees, and sizes in the tens of billions of USD. Funds managing only a few tens of millions of USD almost have no room to survive.
This is also the rule playing out across the entire crypto market:
Big fish attract liquidity.
Liquidity builds more trust.
Trust continues to attract more capital.
In the end, big fish get bigger, while small fish gradually disappear.
In my opinion, Hashdex’s closure is not the end of Bitcoin ETFs, but a sign that the market is entering a consolidation phase where only the strong can survive.
In crypto, your biggest opponent is not the bear market... but the "whales" that are absorbing all the capital flow. 🐋📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, this wave of shorts was brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $8,989.30
Long position liquidations about $0
Short position liquidations about $8,989.30
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $12,000
Long position liquidations about $0
Short position liquidations about $12,000
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $12,100
Long position liquidations about $0
Short position liquidations about $12,100
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $13,200
Long position liquidations about $1,073.15
Short position liquidations about $12,100
From the $OKB liquidation data, short position liquidations in 1 hour, 4 hours, and 12 hours overwhelmingly surpass longs, with longs at zero. The short squeeze trend runs with pure one-sided strength through short and medium cycles, with short liquidations steadily rising from $8,989 to $12,000; in 24 hours, shorts still lead by a wide margin, but longs have begun to resist ($1,073), with shorts 11.3 times longs. The dog whales have completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on OKB—shorts across short, medium, and long cycles have been comprehensively targeted and liquidated, while the only resistance from longs appears slightly in the long cycle but is negligible, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $13,200. Although the scale is limited, the short squeeze direction is highly consistent. Everyone should control their positions carefully and avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a "fully priced expectations, flaws will be punished" phase—"exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Performance, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-over-year increase of 557%.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance—next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the performance is" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term corrections are also real—as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged a drawdown of about 40%; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016—three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: Classic "Bad News is Good News" Scenario
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the unlocking pressure; new selling was effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. However, the alert is not over—another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million shares are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news is good news" scenario. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Don't be scared by ADP's 44,000; US employment is far from cooling down, it's just "not hiring but not firing"
A few days ago, ADP private employment only increased by 44,000, and the whole internet was shouting "employment cliff, rate cuts are coming." But the next day, initial jobless claims came out at 199,000, lower than the expected 202,000, with a four-week average of 198,800, the lowest since September 2022. Looking at these two together makes it clear: companies are not laying off people, they are just reluctant to hire new ones. Continuing claims slightly rose above 1.8 million, meaning "people who lost jobs are slower to find new ones," but initial claims staying below 200,000 indicates almost no layoffs.
This is the real trump card for the Fed to keep hawkish: unemployment is still at 4.2%, layoffs haven't started, wage pressure remains, inflation stickiness persists, so why ease?
So the current game logic has completely changed channels.
Before it was: weak employment → fear of recession → expectation of easing → risk assets rise.
Now it is: slight cooling in employment (hiring side) + inflation not dead + initial claims steady as ever → no support for rate cuts, even less for no hike in September. CME currently prices a 55%–64% chance of a 25bp hike in September, not a cut.
The market is short-term trading not "easing is coming," but a half-baked state of "no easing, but also no aggressive hikes." ADP dropped the hike probability from 67% to 55%, initial claims held it up—offsetting each other, interest rate expectations stuck oscillating at a high level.
Direct translation for crypto:
BTC has been oscillating between 62,000–65,000 recently, not because fundamentals changed, but because macro expectations are flipping between "slowing hikes" and "hawkish persistence." Weak employment can't suppress high inflation, so it can't suppress the Fed; the Fed won't back down, so no one-sided liquidity bull market exists.
So don't treat every rebound as a reversal to hype. Before Nonfarm Payrolls (August 7 evening) and next week's CPI, all rallies are emotional arbitrage + leverage rotation, not trend starts. If Nonfarm < 60,000 and unemployment breaks 4.3%, hike probability will truly collapse; if around 80,000 moderate, the market continues box consolidation; if 100,000+, hike pricing rebounds, BTC tests 61,000 support.
How to act now:
Don't bet one-sided, don't heavily bet on Nonfarm direction, that's the most expensive sobriety now.
• Bullish idea: wait for Nonfarm + CPI to land, then buy in batches on dips to 61,000–62,000 without breaking, not chasing 64,000+
• Bearish idea: 65k–65.6k resistance zone with low volume spike is a hedge point, don't short naked in the middle of the box
• Altcoins: High beta like HYPE/SOL will have even crazier swings before macro is clear, hold small positions for emotional arbitrage, don't hold as trend positions
Before macro settles, all "bullish" signals are bull traps in consolidation, all "bearish" signals are bear traps. Wait for Nonfarm to set direction, more useful than guessing Fed's lip movements. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ $BTC $ETH @币圈超短王马大帅 Full Analysis of US July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)｜Crypto Market Reference (Announced 2026.08.07 20:30) #StorageStocksDropAfterEarnings, Is the AI Memory Bull Market Still Stable?
I. Basic Core Information
1. Announcement Time: 20:30 Beijing Time, August 7 (Tonight)
2. Issuing Agency: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. Three Core Indicators (All essential, wages > new employment)
① Nonfarm Payrolls (core headline data)
② Unemployment Rate
③ Average Hourly Earnings (core inflation, directly affects Fed policy inclination)
4. Benchmark Values
◦ Previous Value (June): 57,000
◦ Market Consensus Expectation: 80,000
◦ Unemployment Rate Expectation: 4.3% (previous 4.2%)
◦ Hourly Earnings YoY expected slight increase
II. Underlying Logic of Price Movements (Common in Crypto)
Nonfarm employment data strength → Fed rate cut pace expectations → USD index, US bond yields volatility → Pricing of cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH
1. Nonfarm significantly exceeds expectations (>100,000 + rising wages) = bearish for crypto
Employment data is hot, inflation easing is hindered, market lowers September rate cut probability, USD strengthens, funds flee risk assets, BTC, ETH quickly drop, contracts prone to flash crashes and cascading liquidations.
2. Nonfarm below expectations (<70,000 + weakening wages) = bullish for crypto
Weak employment reflects economic pressure, market bets on accelerated Fed rate cuts, liquidity easing expectations rise, major coins rally sharply in short term.
3. Data meets expectations (75,000–90,000) = wide-range oscillation
Clear divergence between bulls and bears, market fluctuates with spikes, weak single-direction trend.
Key Misconception
Do not only look at new employment numbers: overall employment stable, but sharply rising wages still indicate bearish market, wage inflation is a key Fed control target. Also, last month’s employment data revisions can directly reverse short-term market trends.
III. Three Scenario Market Forecasts (Current ETH price about 1900 USDT, BTC moves synchronously)
Scenario 1: Strong data (new ≥100,000, bearish downward)
• BTC first support: 62200, break below targets strong support at 60800
• ETH short-term supports: 1870, 1840
Scenario 2: Weak data (new ≤70,000, bullish upward)
• BTC resistances: 65300, 66100
• ETH short-term resistances: 1930, 1960
Scenario 3: Meets expectations (78,000–88,000, range-bound)
BTC range: 62500–65000
ETH range: 1875–1935
IV. Preliminary Forward Reference
Earlier ADP small nonfarm and weekly initial jobless claims data slightly strong, market maintained narrow consolidation before NFP; once actual data deviates significantly from expectations, market volatility will notably increase.#Federal Reserve Hawkish Signals Heat Up, Can Weak Employment Overcome Inflation?
Hawkish Fed Meets Weak Employment: This Macro Showdown Will Decide the Next Crypto Market Rally
The global market is currently stuck in a very conflicting phase—two forces are locked in a fierce battle.
On one side, employment data is showing weakness: July ADP private payrolls increased by only 44,000, below the expected 75,000, halving the forecast and hitting a six-month low, clearly indicating that corporate hiring engines are stalling.
On the other side, the Federal Reserve remains tougher than stone: Musalem says the probability of inflation staying above target has increased, leaning toward rate hikes; Schmidt insists "AI investment is pushing inflation up, and policy is not easing"; Wash is reported to be preparing for a rate hike in September; CME currently prices a 25bp hike in September at about 55%, not a cut.
Putting these two together, investors’ previous muscle memory of "weak employment = immediate easing = blind buying" is invalid.
The old script: weak employment → fear of recession → rate cut expectations → risk assets rise.
The current script: cooling hiring (ADP 44,000) + no collapse in layoffs (initial claims 199,000 below expectations, continuing claims stable) + job-switching wages up 7.0% YoY at a high level + rising Fed hawkish tone → rate cut door welded shut, rate hike probability holding above 50%.
In other words, weak employment currently cannot suppress high inflation nor the Fed’s hawkish stance; it only pulls the "rate hike probability" down from 66% to 55%, then initial claims and wage data push it back up.
What does this mean for crypto? Don’t automatically translate "weak employment" into "BTC up."
For the "next rally" you mentioned to happen, this chain must be satisfied:
Subsequent CPI + nonfarm payrolls remain soft (nonfarm <60,000, unemployment rate breaks 4.3%, hourly wages drop below 0.2%) → rate hike pricing collapses, short-term US Treasury yields fall, USD weakens → global liquidity expectations improve → institutions bring BTC back as a "scarce + highly liquid" macro hedge, ETH gains more elasticity riding DeFi + RWA + ecosystem funds, SOL/LINK/AI tokens rotate with rising risk appetite.
This chain is not connected now. Currently, it’s a tug-of-war between "Fed hawkishness continuing vs. marginal weakening in employment," with BTC stuck in a 61,000–65,000 range washing out leverage. On the day of ADP, 24h volatility was 9.65% with two-way liquidations, a typical "macro expectation freakout and chip reshuffling" volatile market.
Conversely, if next week’s CPI rebounds, tonight’s nonfarm hits 80,000+, and wages remain firm, the Fed’s "higher for longer" will be repriced again, Nasdaq will fall first, BTC will test 61,000 support, ETH will resist relatively but still trapped in the range, and high-beta altcoins (HYPE/SOL/TAO) will see even crazier volatility.
So your original phrase "bull market prospects are far from certain" is correct, but to add: this is not a bull-bear turning point now, it’s a compressed spring before direction choice. Historically, a major Fed pivot (from hawkish to dovish) is indeed the start of a new cycle, but before that pivot emerges, all rallies are "sentiment arbitrage + leverage rotation."
• Bulls, don’t chase above 64,000; wait for nonfarm and CPI guidance, then buy in batches on a pullback to 61,000–62,000 support that holds;
• ETH’s relative strength to BTC is because ecosystem funds haven’t withdrawn, but don’t treat it as an independent bull; macro easing at best lets it outperform in rotation;
• SOL/LINK/AI tokens are new money’s sentiment indicators, but only if Fed pricing truly shifts from "55% rate hike" to "rate cut repricing," otherwise it’s just high-volatility meat grinder.
In short: the showdown between a hawkish Fed and weak employment has its first round tonight with nonfarm, second round next week with CPI, and the referee’s whistle at the September FOMC. Before that, BTC’s next major move is not "will it rise," but "which support level will it be washed down to before choosing direction with macro." Don’t treat every spike in between as a bottom-buying opportunity.
$BTC $ETH @币圈超短王马大帅 Full Analysis of US July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)｜Crypto Market Reference (Announced 2026.08.07 20:30) #Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings, Is the AI Memory Bull Market Still Stable?
I. Basic Core Information
1. Announcement Time: 20:30 Beijing Time, August 7 (Tonight)
2. Issuing Agency: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. Three Core Indicators (All Required, Wages > New Employment)
① Nonfarm Payrolls (Core headline data)
② Unemployment Rate
③ Average Hourly Earnings (Core inflation, directly affects Fed policy inclination)
4. Benchmark Values
◦ Previous Value (June): 57,000
◦ Market Consensus Expectation: 80,000
◦ Unemployment Rate Expectation: 4.3% (Previous 4.2%)
◦ Hourly Wage YoY Expectation Slightly Upward
II. Underlying Logic of Price Movements (Common in Crypto)
Nonfarm Employment Data Strength → Fed Rate Cut Expectation → USD Index, US Treasury Yield Fluctuations → Pricing of BTC, ETH and other Cryptocurrencies
1. Nonfarm Significantly Exceeds Expectations (>100,000 + Rising Wages) = Bearish for Crypto
Employment data is strong, inflation easing is hindered, market lowers September rate cut probability, USD strengthens, capital flees risk assets, BTC and ETH quickly drop, contracts prone to flash crashes and cascading liquidations.
2. Nonfarm Below Expectations (<70,000 + Weakening Wages) = Bullish for Crypto
Weak employment reflects economic pressure, market bets on accelerated Fed rate cuts, liquidity easing expectations rise, mainstream coins rally sharply in short term.
3. Data Meets Expectations (75,000–90,000) = Wide Range Volatility
Clear divergence between bulls and bears, market oscillates with flash spikes, weak single-direction trend.
Key Misconception
Do not only look at new employment numbers: overall employment is stable, but sharply rising wages still indicate bearish market, as wage inflation is a key Fed control target. Also, last month’s employment data revisions can directly reverse short-term market trends.
III. Three Scenario Market Forecasts (Current ETH price about 1900 USDT, BTC moves synchronously)
Scenario 1: Strong Data (New ≥100,000, Bearish Downtrend)
• BTC first support: 62200, break below targets strong support at 60800
• ETH short-term supports: 1870, 1840
Scenario 2: Weak Data (New ≤70,000, Bullish Uptrend)
• BTC resistances: 65300, 66100
• ETH short-term resistances: 1930, 1960
Scenario 3: Meets Expectations (78,000–88,000, Range-bound)
BTC range: 62500–65000
ETH range: 1875–1935
IV. Preliminary Forward Reference
Previous ADP small nonfarm and weekly initial jobless claims data were slightly strong, market maintained narrow consolidation before NFP. Once actual data deviates significantly from expectations, market volatility will noticeably increase. Crypto Daily · 2026.08.07 Friday
1. One-sentence summary today
BTC is sideways around 64K, neither bulls nor bears have strength, this kind of market is the most exhausting.
2. Market thermometer
Neutral to bearish
Bulls are facing a paper loss of nearly 40 million, and volume can't support any story.
3. Core market today
BTC: $64,366 | 24h -0.28% | No drop or rise, but bulls are overall losing money, I can't say this level is stable
ETH: $1,902 | 24h +0.18% | Barely in the green, but sticking above the 1900 integer level, not exactly strong
Strongest sector today: US tokenized assets | SPCX | +5.7%
Weakest sector today: Korean tech stock tokens | SKHYNIX | -3.1%~-4.5%
4. Most important news today
[Wintermute US business obtains broker-dealer license]
Confirmed by WSJ, Wintermute's US entity has obtained a broker-dealer license, allowing compliant trading of crypto ETFs, commodities, and tokenized stocks.
[Impact] Positive for market sentiment in the short term, indicating institutional compliance channels are opening; mid-term, this type of market maker entry will bring more liquidity to the tokenized asset sector.
[My judgment] Market reaction is insufficient. This news is more important than most realize—Wintermute is a leading market maker, not a small player; obtaining the license means the infrastructure for compliant market making is being completed. But today's market showed little reaction, possibly because everyone is waiting for Friday's close.
[KMNO listed on Upbit + Bithumb spot, price surged 20% in short term]
Kamino Finance token launched simultaneously on South Korea's two major exchanges this morning, OI rose 71.8% synchronously, price soared 20% within an hour.
[Impact] Pure short-term event-driven, clear Korean premium effect, but market cap only 148 million, liquidity limited.
[My judgment] This kind of listing pump is typical; retail investors chasing in will likely be left holding the bag. Good news realized is bad news, an old saying, but people always forget.
[Iran strikes "hostile targets" in the Strait of Hormuz]
According to Fars News Agency, Iran took military action in the Strait of Hormuz, details pending confirmation.
[Impact] Hormuz is a global oil transport choke point; if the situation escalates, crude oil tokens (CL/BRENTOIL) will move first, then risk-off sentiment will transmit to BTC.
[My judgment] Currently, the source is single and market reaction is mild. I tend to observe first, not to rush into positions because of this news, but it’s worth monitoring.
5. Signals worth attention today
Signal: BTC bulls’ paper loss exceeds $63 million, net PnL -$38.9 million, but bull-to-bear ratio remains at 1.43:1
Why it matters: Bulls haven’t massively withdrawn despite losing money, meaning either they are holding hard or someone is quietly accumulating at low levels—these two scenarios have very different outcomes
Tracking period: short term
Signal: SPCX (S&P 500 synthetic token) today OI $238 million, price +5.7%, while the actual S&P 500 US stock fell 0.2% in the same period
Why it matters: On-chain S&P synthetic asset gains far exceed the underlying stock, indicating leveraged long exposure to US stocks; this divergence is somewhat odd
Tracking period: short term
6. Key events tomorrow
🕐 Tonight (20:30 Beijing time) US Nonfarm Payroll data → Expected impact: highly uncertain, if nonfarm exceeds expectations strongly, it will suppress rate cut expectations and be bearish for crypto; if weak, the opposite. Today is Friday, nonfarm day, BTC will likely continue sideways before the data release.
📅 Next Monday follow-up on Iran Hormuz situation → Expected impact: neutral to bearish, if there is escalation news over the weekend, crude oil and safe-haven assets will move first at Monday open.
7. Today's view
What I want to emphasize most today is the Wintermute news. Everyone is watching whether BTC goes up or not, but the truly valuable information is that infrastructure is being built piece by piece. Market makers getting licenses, tokenized stock compliance channels opening—these won’t make you money today, but in two years you’ll know what happened today. Adults only look at pros and cons; short-term sideways is exhausting, but the direction hasn’t changed. Can Tim Scott really turn the tide? Can the Republican Party really exclude dissenters and then find enough Democratic votes to start the voting process?
As the "Clarity Act" approaches Friday, it still hasn't entered the Senate procedure near the Senate summer recess window. Tim Scott proposed a new view, stating that the Republicans will definitely hold a procedural vote on the Clarity Act before the recess, even saying the Senate will decide to delay the recess.
Tim Scott is considered a temporary mouthpiece for Trump, because this week Trump expressed that the recess could be delayed to hold a procedural vote on the "Clarity Act," intending to give the bill enough time. However, whether the Senate can delay the recess depends on the statement from Majority Leader Schumer.
So far, Schumer has not made a clear statement on this, so whether the Senate can delay the recess is unknown, and the market $BTC has not shown optimistic pricing, with prices remaining volatile. On Polymarket, the probability of procedural passage before recess is as low as 17%.
Obviously, Tim Scott's view seems optimistic, but the actual driving force still lacks verification. The current difficulty for the Republicans is to first reach a high degree of unity within the party, then persuade some Democrats to start the procedure, and currently, the possibility remains very low.
At this stage, the focus is not on the Clarity Act, but on whether Senate Majority Leader Schumer will announce a delay of the recess. Without resolving this issue, the Clarity Act will hardly enter the Senate procedure!
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Potential demon coin: AOB all holding addresses and D0–Dx change analysis.
Data was pulled through a crawler, cleaned, and analyzed, revealing some interesting data changes. No more words, take a look yourself~ Brothers, now is the critical moment
1. Employment data is clearly weakening
Expectations for rate cuts are ignited, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is bad beyond limits, the market will start trading "recession," causing a sell-off even when good news arrives. Good data doesn’t necessarily lead to gains, bad data doesn’t necessarily lead to losses—this is the most deceptive aspect of non-farm payrolls. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
2. #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ Circle is trying to break away from reliance on single interest income by launching infrastructure like the Arc blockchain and payment network to transition into a platform model, but whether this new growth engine can truly support its valuation still needs market validation.
3. Although storage giants’ earnings reports are impressive, their stock prices have fallen—not due to AI demand collapse, but because previous gains have overextended expectations, leading to profit-taking.
The divergence between bulls and bears is intensifying, but AI computing power’s structural demand for high-end memory remains strong, and the shortage pattern is unlikely to reverse in the short term.
The era of broad gains in the storage sector has ended; next is a period of differentiation and verification, where only vendors truly tied to AI high-end orders can continue to enjoy premiums. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
Realistic advice for ordinary traders
① Don’t take large positions to gamble on the moment data is released; most moves in the first few minutes are false spikes designed to lure longs or shorts, making it hard to distinguish truth. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges.
② Don’t treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A single month’s employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle.
③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak stocks will still underperform.
Personal market thoughts:
🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, setting the general bullish tone
🏧 $ETH — Chips are steadily consolidating, showing a pattern of gradual buildup
🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive when the market comes
🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention
📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market’s overall risk appetite
🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors’ bullish and bearish sentiment
💵 Capital heat concentrated in offensive directions:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
📉 Stocks where capital is retreating and upward momentum is exhausted:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS SpaceX's $100 billion lock-up expiration day actually saw a 6% rise. The real "lock-up selling" might have happened yesterday.
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked, potentially releasing nearly $100 billion in market value.
The market originally expected: a large number of insiders cashing out → stock price pressure.
But the result was completely the opposite.
SpaceX opened about 5% higher that day and closed up 6.14%, with a trading volume reaching 251 million shares, the highest since June 18.
Why?
Because the real selling pressure may have been released early on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, SpaceX's stock plunged nearly 14% in a single day with about 200 million shares traded after its first financial report showed AI capital expenditure exceeding $18 billion, sparking market concerns.
On that day, many funds originally planning to sell on the lock-up expiration day completed their trades early.
In other words:
Wednesday might have been the real "lock-up selling day."
The August 6 lock-up expiration was more like a reverse stress test against short sellers.
Currently, SpaceX's short positions account for about 36% of the float, with cumulative unrealized gains exceeding $9 billion.
Many shorts are not betting on SpaceX's fundamentals collapsing but rather:
"Will employees and early investors sell heavily after the lock-up?"
But the reality is:
Lock-up expiration ≠ inevitable selling.
Early investors still hold huge unrealized gains, and many may choose to continue holding.
More notably, retail investors bought heavily during Wednesday's plunge.
Vanda data shows retail investors net bought about $22.7 million of SpaceX in the first hour of trading on Wednesday, three times the average level.
Institutions see:
AI capital spending surging, short-term profit pressure.
Retail investors see:
Elon Musk is turning SpaceX into an AI infrastructure player.
But risks remain.
This lock-up expiration is only the first step in a nine-stage unlocking mechanism.
The real test will come in June 2027—when about 6.4 billion Class A shares held by Musk will be unlocked.
So, in the short term:
The lock-up bearishness did not materialize and may have triggered short covering.
In the long term:
The market will ultimately return to one question:
Can SpaceX, after investing tens of billions in AI, create a new profit growth curve?
That will determine its value.
$SPCX $RKLB $LUNR $ASTS $RDW #美股 📊 $XAUT Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, short-term shorts were crushed hard, but long-term longs suffered a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $38.52
Long position liquidations about $0
Short position liquidations about $38.52
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $7,741.48
Long position liquidations about $181.16
Short position liquidations about $7,560.32
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $9,238.47
Long position liquidations about $1,176.52
Short position liquidations about $8,061.95
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $58,600
Long position liquidations about $34,400
Short position liquidations about $24,300
From the $XAUT liquidation data, short position liquidations crushed longs in the 1-hour period, shorts monopolized everything, starting with a short squeeze blitz; the 4-hour period shows continued short dominance, shorts are 41 times longs, with a full short squeeze outbreak; in 12 hours shorts still lead by about 6.85 times, short squeeze runs through short and medium cycles; in 24 hours the direction completely reverses, long liquidations crush shorts, longs are 1.42 times shorts, the dog whales on XAUT completed a fierce turnaround from short squeeze to long kill — short-term short chasers were targeted and blasted, long-term long chasers were wiped out, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $58,000. As a gold stablecoin, XAUT’s directional switches are extremely decisive, a textbook example of short squeeze turning into long kill. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 7
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered the "expectations maxed out, flaws will be punished" phase — "exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Performance, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital’s revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix’s Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 557% year-over-year.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% in after-hours trading. The culprit was guidance — next quarter’s revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below market expectations of $10.82 billion. The market’s pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the performance is" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term corrections are also real — as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged about 40% drawdown; in July SK Hynix’s Korean stock had a max drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can’t Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes in agreement since 2016 — three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth stayed high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component surged to 70.3, the highest in four months — "weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: Classic "Bad News is Good News" Scenario
On August 6, SpaceX’s first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing about $100 billion in market value. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the unlock pressure; new selling was effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. But the alert is not over — another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX’s counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news is good news" scenario. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified — old logics are collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ The three real core reasons for the storage crash
1. It's not that prices won't rise, but the rise is no longer as fierce as before, and the market directly turned hostile and dumped.
Previously, storage chips surged because the market assumed AI would continuously have a severe capacity shortage, prices would rise month after month, and profits would explode infinitely.
But this time, SanDisk's next quarter data basically says: still making big money, but the price increase is slowing down.
Consumer demand has long been weak, all propped up by AI.
Now AI can’t sustain the expectation of "infinite surge," and once growth slows, the capital market immediately rejects the previous high valuations and directly slashes prices.
In short: you can make money, but if you can’t make it faster and faster, the funds will flee.
2. The industry is fine, but the hype logic has completely changed.
Honestly, AI storage long-term demand is still huge, the industry fundamentals haven’t collapsed at all.
But Wall Street’s mindset has totally shifted:
Before, just painting a rosy picture could push prices up; now they only look at solid current profits and reject any cooling expectations.
Prices rose too much before, expectations were overblown; now if future growth is even slightly less exaggerated than imagined,
capital directly "collapses valuations due to expectation crash," no reasoning involved.
3. This big drop is not a global crash, purely high-level capital rotation and exit.
Don’t misunderstand:
It’s not that the entire US stock market is bad, nor that the economy is bad.
It’s just that storage and AI hardware surged crazily, doubling or more, profits were too fat.
Main funds are cashing out at high levels, fleeing AI hardware; some move to stable blue chips for hedging,
some are looking for new high-elasticity sectors.
It’s just sector rotation, not market panic.
Final plain summary:
The storage industry is still profitable, AI demand still exists,
but the era of explosive growth is over, the era of steady growth has arrived,
and the capital market won’t accept "slower growth," directly smashing all the previously overdrawn bubbles back down.
We should still honestly focus on macro employment data: this week is a real crossroads, with three scenario simulations
1. Scenario ①: Initial jobless claims rise, nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly (bullish for crypto)
Employment cools, market bets on earlier Fed rate cuts, US Treasury yields fall, benefiting Bitcoin and growth assets, BTC may test the 66000-67000 resistance zone.
2. Scenario ②: Employment data stronger than expected (clearly bearish for crypto)
Labor market remains hot, rate cut expectations are delayed, liquidity tightening expectations repriced, 64000 support level at risk of breaking.
3. Scenario ③: Data is balanced, mixed good and bad (consolidation scenario)
Market continues to play in place, BTC oscillates for a long time between 63000-65500 large range, waiting for the next round of news catalysts.Circle invites Wall Street into the node seats, the new throne for stablecoins is already set
Revolutions always start with a beautiful phrase.
Open, permissionless, decentralized.
But when the money actually arrives, the entrance is crowded with people in suits.
Circle's stablecoin blockchain Arc is approaching its mainnet launch, with traditional financial institutions like BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, DTCC, Standard Chartered Bank, and Intercontinental Exchange beginning to gather around this chain.
It looks like Wall Street embracing blockchain.
From another perspective?
It could also be Wall Street preparing to take over the settlement layer of blockchain.
Arc is not designed for retail investors to find the next 100x coin. It targets stablecoin payments, foreign exchange, tokenized securities, and institutional clearing. The network uses stablecoins to pay gas fees, emphasizes predictability in transaction outcomes, and will initially adopt permissioned validator nodes. According to Arc's announced deployment plan, the network is expected to have about 20 permissioned validators at launch.
In the past, Circle issued USDC but had to rely on public chains like Ethereum and Solana for circulation. Every transfer and every financial application value generated left a portion on someone else's land.
After Arc launches, Circle can both print money and build roads; it sets the rules of passage and sells tickets to institutions to enter the new financial network.
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ Nvidia's next-generation Rubin Ultra VRAM is reported to have reduced quotas due to production capacity constraints, with the computing power front ultimately hitting a physical wall in upstream memory.
The US stock storage sector experienced a pullback after the news, with the core storage stock $MU oscillating at high levels along with the broader tech market, completing a round of short-term profit-taking.
At the macro level, the Federal Reserve's fluctuating interest rate expectations disturb high-valuation assets. As the dollar's momentum slows, capital begins seeking a volatility-resistant base between crypto assets and US stocks.
The shortage of advanced HBM capacity is transmitting premiums across the entire DRAM supply chain, converting the short-term valuation pressure from the macro interest rate environment into real pricing power for upstream chip manufacturers.
If risk appetite in the US tech sector rebounds and downstream AI capital expenditures continue to materialize, rising DRAM prices will drive an upward restructuring channel for storage stocks, while the elevated discount rates caused by high interest rates will delay the breakthrough timing.
If downstream hardware procurement budgets shrink overall, the premium ability of storage chips will face correction, but before advanced storage capacity is fully released, supply-side bottlenecks will limit the overall downside.
The cross-market linkage between the US hardware chain and the crypto market indicates that when macro liquidity is constrained, assets with physical capacity bottleneck defenses often show stronger price resilience.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether DRAM spot prices maintain an independent upward trend amid overall tech stock volatility.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？Brothers, I understand this wave of storage sell-off. The old logic was "chip shortage = price increase = positive," but now it has become "too much shortage = downstream stuck = negative." SanDisk's earnings report was clearly excellent, but because it wasn't sky-high, it got slammed hard. Citibank even swiftly cut the target price. This is called the "high expectations trap," and to break out, you need a perfect score. Now even Nvidia is considering downgrading HBM, which shows the price really hurt demand. For now, just hold on, don't be a hero, and wait for valuations to squeeze out some fluff before reassessing. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
$SNDK $XSNDK 📊 $NEAR Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, the bulls in this wave were brutally crushed by the short sellers...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $55,400
Long position liquidations about $55,400
Short position liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $78,800
Long position liquidations about $78,800
Short position liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $109,400
Long position liquidations about $109,400
Short position liquidations about $18.43
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $324,000
Long position liquidations about $322,100
Short position liquidations about $1,936.57
From the $NEAR liquidation data, long position liquidations in the 1-hour and 4-hour periods overwhelmingly surpass shorts, with shorts at zero; the bull slaughter is unfolding with nuclear intensity in short cycles; the 12-hour long advantage continues, longs are 5,937 times the shorts, bull slaughter spans short to mid cycles; 24-hour long liquidations soar to $322,100, 166 times the shorts, the short sellers have completed a full-cycle massacre of the bulls on NEAR—bulls across short, mid, and long cycles are being comprehensively targeted and blasted, shorts' only resistance appears slightly in the long cycle but is negligible, cumulative liquidations exceed $320,000. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: the market has entered the "expectations maxed out, flaws must be punished" phase—"exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Performance, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital’s revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix’s Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 557% year-over-year.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance—next quarter’s revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below market expectations of $10.82 billion. The market’s pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the performance is" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion in 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term corrections are also real—as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged a 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix’s Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016—three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: Classic "Bad News is Good News" Scenario
On August 6, SpaceX’s first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the unlocking pressure; new sell orders were effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. However, the alert is not over—another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX’s counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $XAU 4000 is supported by central banks, while $BTC is continuously sold off by Strategy.
The current macro environment amplifies divergence.
In 2026, the real interest rate and liquidity environment are not favorable for risk assets. Gold mainly gains independent support due to central bank purchases and safe-haven demand. The result is: gold can rely on "institutional buying" to hold its high levels, whereas BTC must wait for liquidity to ease again or risk appetite to recover before it can truly catch up.
Simply put, gold has sovereign-level, price-insensitive buying support; gold’s "muscle memory" and institutional status remain stronger. Historically, BTC has significantly outperformed gold during liquidity expansion periods but often underperforms during tightening or early risk events.
Currently, short-term pricing power lies in the hands of risk appetite and liquidity.
Image: BTC and gold price trend comparison over the past year
#黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ Talking about some solid stuff, those who know, know. $SPCX is up 6% today against the trend, and behind it is a bigger narrative: SpaceX is building its own gas power plant and a massive battery array for the semiconductor giant Terafab in Texas, generating and storing its own electricity. This is no longer just about making rockets; Musk is moving the entire "energy—chip—AI" chain into his own backyard. With vertical integration to this extent, the valuation anchor changes. Don't just focus on the daily ups and downs; watch how this chain develops.#AIMemoryBullTest #DailyOrbit #Alphabet25BBond #Storage stocks plunge after earnings reports, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Last night, I checked the earnings reports of the storage sector, and my blood pressure shot up immediately. How good do you think the performance has to be to cause a rise? The result tells you: even if it's explosively good, as long as it’s not out of this world, it will still be crushed down to the ground.
First, look at these numbers, they’re simply outrageous. Sandisk just released its earnings report, with revenue hitting $8.97 billion, nearly a fivefold increase year-over-year! Gross margin at 84.6%, this money printer is running slower than it. Western Digital isn’t bad either, with revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44%. Logically, shouldn’t these stocks hit the daily limit up? But what happened? Sandisk dropped 7% after hours, and Western Digital was even worse, down 11%.
This is called “expectation killing.” The funds are very sharp now; earnings reports are yesterday’s story, who cares? Everyone is focused on next month’s guidance. Sandisk’s median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, sounds like a lot, right? But Wall Street’s expectation is $11.1 billion. Because of this less than 6% gap in expectations, hundreds of billions in market value just vanished. Citibank also acted swiftly, cutting the target price from 2500 to 2100. This market is like this: if you score 99 but don’t get 100, it’s considered a fail.
This drop dragged the whole sector down the drain. It’s even scarier in South Korea, with SK Hynix and Kioxia all down over 10%, Samsung also down more than 6%, dragging the entire market down. Why such panic? Mainly because three forces are pushing together.
First, everyone’s mentality collapsed. Originally, you thought you were a top student scoring full marks every time, but you scored 99. Even if you’re still first place, everyone will think you’re not good enough. Once this sentiment spreads, no one can escape.
Second, the logic has changed a bit. Previously, when we speculated on storage, the logic was “shortage = price increase = easy win.” Now? I heard Nvidia is considering downgrading the next-gen Rubin Ultra graphics card memory from the highest-grade 12-layer HBM4e to 8 layers. Why? Because it’s too expensive, production capacity can’t keep up, and yields are uncertain. This is interesting; before it was “you have money but can’t buy,” now it’s “you’re too expensive for me to buy” or “I have to cut specs to ship.” Once this shortage chokes the downstream, it’s not good news for the shovel sellers.
Third, profit-taking is heavy. This sector has risen for a year, with many stocks up several times. Valuations have long flown to the sky. Now with a little turbulence, those who made a killing are rushing to exit. If they don’t run, are they waiting for the New Year?
So some ask, is the AI storage rally completely over?
I don’t think it’s that pessimistic. Morgan Stanley and others are still saying this is a fake fall; data center shortages remain severe, and next year’s capacity is already sold out. This makes sense since the AI mega trend is there. But that doesn’t mean stock prices have to rise every day. The market is shifting from “listening to stories” to “verifying quality.”
We need to separate two things:
Short term (next few months): Don’t rush to catch a falling knife. Sandisk has set a rule this time: in future earnings seasons, unless guidance is “mind-blowing,” expect to get hammered. The key now is to be quick, exit when needed, don’t fight the trend.
Long term (looking at next year): As long as AI keeps developing, demand for storage remains. After this wave of sentiment vents and valuations deflate, those with real technology and who can handle HBM capacity will still be valuable.
Overall, this storage adjustment is a “killing the donkey after unloading the millstone” targeting high valuations. Don’t just focus on earnings anymore; that’s just the entry ticket, guidance is the key to whether you stay. For now, let’s just hold on and let the dust settle.
$SNDK $ETH $BTC After the four Google veterans left, they suppressed Loop: letting AI automatically conduct scientific research
---
The next real phase of AI industrialization may not be "intelligence," but "trial and error."
In the past, scientists could only advance a limited number of experiments per day. In the future, AI can simultaneously propose tens of thousands of hypotheses, run tens of thousands of routes in parallel, automatically eliminate failures, and then enter the next round. Once this cycle is operational, scientific research will have scale effects similar to an industrial assembly line for the first time. This is the most noteworthy change behind the collective departure of the four Google veterans.
In August 2026, the former CEO of DeepMind became chairman, and Jeff Dean and three others left to found Discovery Loop. Alphabet is both an investor and provides computing power. This is not a break-up but more like Google proactively releasing top talent to bet on a more radical direction—letting AI "discover" on its own. The "Loop" in the company name is the answer.
Previously, humans asked questions and AI answered; later, Agents executed goals. Loop Engineering goes further: humans only set goals, rules, evaluation criteria, and termination conditions; the rest is automatically cycled by AI—proposing hypotheses, designing experiments, executing, evaluating, eliminating, and generating the next round. The key is parallelism. Humans conduct a few experiments a day; AI can run thousands simultaneously, drastically compressing trial and error time. Instead of continuing to raise the intelligence ceiling, it’s better to let existing intelligence try and err ten thousand times a day—this is also a magnitude change.
This is not an isolated event. Current AI Scientists are divided into three layers: the code model closed loop is the most mature, with clear Loss and Benchmark feedback; AlphaEvolve is already using it; the theoretical closed loop is beginning to be attempted, but the answer is no longer a single number; the physical world closed loop is the hardest, requiring automated labs and robot cooperation. Discovery Loop starts from AI optimizing AI precisely because it meets the two prerequisites of repeatable experiments and quantifiable results.
The stronger the loop, the more critical the evaluation system. AI excels at optimizing the metrics you give it, but if the metrics are wrong, it will cleverly deviate. So the real barrier is not the model but who defines "what success means." When AI can execute experiments infinitely, the scarcest resource is no longer the person who finds answers but the person who asks the right questions and designs evaluation standards.
In the past decade, computing costs have decreased; in the past three years, generation costs have decreased; the next step is to reduce discovery costs. Future metrics for computing power will no longer be tokens per second but how many effective discoveries are produced per unit of computing power. Enterprises will purchase research and development speed. This path will eventually encounter recursive self-improvement—AI designs experiments to find better training methods, obtains stronger AI, and then enters the next round.
Therefore, I do not see this departure as a simple talent loss. When several people who have stood at the forefront for more than twenty years collectively bet on the same direction, the signal is clear: after model capability, the next war is who has the fastest discovery loop. The day AI truly changes scientific research is not when it first gives an astonishing answer but when it begins tireless trial and error.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $GOOGL
$SNDK $BTC
📌 Live Trading Statement
Current Position: Long BTC spot holding + regular investment in index funds. No contracts, leverage, or futures involved.
This batch of news does not change the current position plan — the infrastructure narrative is accelerating, but it's not time to act yet.
---
1. Base Becomes the Default Entry for Financial On-Chain
Jesse Pollak declared, "Every financial institution worldwide will migrate their business onto the crypto track," and the data supports this: since 2025, TVL in all other ecosystems has declined, while Base has risen 35% against the trend; it is the world's second-largest lending market; BTC and ETH spot trading volume on Base exceeds that of any other chain; 90% of proxy financial transactions on x402 occur on Base.
Base is capturing the "traditional finance moving on-chain" dividend. This is not just narrative, but actual capital flow.
Trading judgment: Base within the ETH ecosystem deserves long-term attention; do not chase highs in the short term, wait for a pullback.
#Base #Layer2 #DeFi
---
2. The Payment Layer of the Agent Economy is Taking Shape
Multiple news items this week point in the same direction — AI agents are gaining independent economic capabilities:
- Browser Use partners with Coinbase to support the x402 protocol, allowing agents to directly purchase credits with USDC wallets without needing accounts or API keys
- Arkham API adds x402 support, enabling agents to pay with USDC on demand to call on-chain data
- The x402 standard is developed byAdd a hard footnote to this storage supercycle: Nvidia is reportedly considering reducing the HBM memory capacity for the next-generation Rubin Ultra, not because they don't want to stack more, but because advanced high-bandwidth memory is simply unavailable. Even the computing power leader has to yield to memory, indicating the bottleneck has shifted from the GPU to the storage chips themselves. Data is more honest than narrative—HBM shortages will propagate up the entire DRAM supply chain, and the most price-elastic are often the upstream chip manufacturers. Storage stocks pulled back today, but the fundamental curve is still trending upward. Let supply and demand speak, not sentiment. $MU
#AIMemoryBullTest
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
#SpaceXUnlockRebound 🔥The US suddenly engages in nuclear blackmail, should the crypto community panic?
I just saw this news, and honestly, it gave me a jolt.
The US Department of Defense is drafting a new nuclear strategy, with one core message: if regional conflicts break out with China or Russia, the use of tactical nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. And this is not just talk; it’s officially included as a military option.
How serious is this? Let me break it down for you.
Tactical nuclear weapons aren’t the city-destroying "Little Boy" type, but their power is still enough to wipe a small city off the map. The US used to have a stance of "deterrence first, no easy use" regarding nuclear weapons, but now they’ve suddenly lowered the threshold for "use," specifically targeting the two nuclear giants, China and Russia. This effectively shatters the tacit Cold War-era red lines.
For financial markets, news like this is always nuclear bomb level.
But interestingly, the crypto market often reacts differently from traditional markets.
When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022, BTC dropped 8% in one day but rebounded within a week. During the 2023 Israel-Palestine conflict, gold surged, and BTC also rose. In 2024, when Iran’s nuclear facility was attacked, the market panicked overnight but went back to normal the next day.
Notice the pattern? Geopolitical shocks cause big short-term impacts, but the crypto market’s memory is even shorter than a goldfish’s. As long as there’s no actual war, after the panic is digested, the market usually returns to its original trend.
But this time it’s different because the US is playing the "nuclear" card.
Nuclear deterrence and conventional war are completely different concepts. Once the nuclear option is on the table, global capital’s risk appetite will systematically decline. The US dollar may strengthen short-term due to safe-haven demand, gold will undoubtedly benefit, but what about BTC?
My judgment has two layers.
First layer: short-term bearish.
BTC’s correlation with Nasdaq is over 0.8, essentially making it the "Tech Stock Pro Max." If nuclear blackmail heats up global risk aversion, funds will flow to traditional safe havens like gold, US Treasuries, and the yen, not BTC. Don’t forget, although BTC is called "digital gold," when it really counts, institutions are the first to sell it.
Second layer: potential medium to long-term opportunity.
If geopolitical tensions persist, global demand for "decentralized" and "censorship-resistant assets" will rise. After Russia was kicked out of SWIFT, cryptocurrency usage surged—that’s an example. If great power confrontations become prolonged, BTC’s narrative as a "stateless currency" will be reactivated.
But the premise is—no actual war. If war breaks out, all assets are worthless.
💡 Advice for the community brothers:
1. Don’t heavily bet on direction at this point. August is already volatile, and with added geopolitical risks, heavy positions are just making things harder for yourself.
2. Watch gold and the US dollar index trends. These are leading indicators of risk sentiment strength. If gold keeps hitting new highs but BTC stays still, it means funds don’t see BTC as a safe haven at all.
3. Keep stablecoins on hand. If a black swan event really happens, cash (USDT) is king. When the market panics and dumps, you’ll have ammo to buy cheap.
4. Don’t be fooled by the "nuclear war is good for BTC" ghost stories. If it really comes to that, your concern will be survival, not coin prices.
Finally, a heartfelt word.
The US’s nuclear blackmail this time is essentially a strategic probe. It’s very unlikely they will actually use it, but the posture of "dare to use or not" has already changed the rules of the game. For the crypto community, this is not news to ignore, but there’s no need to over-panic.
The market always rewards those who can think calmly when others panic.
👇 Do you think this nuclear blackmail will have a substantial impact on BTC? Or will the crypto community continue as usual, "eat and drink as usual"? Let’s discuss in the comments.The vote on the Clear Act has been postponed to September, and there is an interesting perspective: a proper delay might actually increase the chances of it passing.
Avoiding a rushed vote during the August recess gives both parties more time to reconcile differences, complete the provisions, fully communicate and compromise on contentious points, reducing the risk of a forced vote failure.
Of course, postponement does not guarantee passage; September still faces a complex congressional agenda with many uncertainties, but the dynamics of the game have changed. This bill is an important policy catalyst for the crypto community, and subsequent developments will continue to influence overall market sentiment.
$BTC $ETH $BICO
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂 Western Union connects stablecoins, Solana, and Visa payment scenarios, which is more practical than many public chain narratives. It's not just about issuing another stablecoin. What Western Union really wants to do is integrate on-chain dollars into its original remittance network: user receipts, offline cashing, merchant spending, and cross-border settlement, all trying to avoid being stuck by bank business days and correspondent bank chains. What stablecoins have always lacked is not on-chaiSpaceX is back in the spotlight. 🚀
More than $100B worth of $SPCX shares recently became eligible for trading, yet the stock still moved higher after receiving a bullish analyst price-target upgrade.
The lockup release could lead to increased volatility as early investors gain the option to sell. However, the bigger story is whether the market can continue absorbing the additional supply.
If demand remains strong despite the increased float, it would be a positive signal for investor confidence and the stock's longer-term outlook.
This isn't just about a lockup expiration—it's a real test of market conviction.
Definitely one to keep on your watchlist in the weeks ahead. 📈
#AIMemoryBullTest
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
#SpaceXUnlockRebound I am Cige. The earnings season for the storage sector has sent a clear signal: performance can shatter the ceiling, but stock prices still fall.
Explosive earnings are just the entry ticket; guidance is the pricing anchor.
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, far exceeding the expected $8.39 billion; adjusted EPS was $39.25, and gross margin hit a record high of 84.6%. Western Digital's revenue was $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year, also beating expectations. Both companies delivered impeccable results, yet SanDisk fell 7% after hours, and Western Digital dropped 11%.
The core reason is only one: the guidance was not impressive enough. SanDisk's next quarter revenue outlook is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, below FactSet's expectation of $11.148 billion. Western Digital also faced disappointment for being "not impressive enough." Citi lowered SanDisk's target price from $2500 to $2100. The market wants not just "good," but "better than expected." When expectations are already at the ceiling, any number less than "perfect" will be punished.
Three forces crushing the sector are fermenting simultaneously.
The sell-off of SanDisk and Western Digital quickly spread through the entire storage chain. Kioxia and SK Hynix plunged over 10%, Samsung Electronics dropped over 6%. The KOSPI index's decline widened to 5%, SK Hynix fell over 9%, Samsung Electronics dropped over 6%. Daishin Securities clearly pointed out that SanDisk's below-expectation earnings guidance weakened market confidence in the storage chip industry, and the semiconductor sector's sharp correction was the main reason for the KOSPI's decline that day.
NVIDIA is evaluating reducing Rubin Ultra's HBM configuration from HBM4e 12Hi down to 8Hi or other options. The reason is that the overall DRAM shortage in 2027 limits HBM wafer capacity, and there is uncertainty in the validation timeline and mass production yield of 12Hi HBM4e. #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound 2026-08-07 Crypto Daily Market Scan
Watchlist: BTC / ETH / HYPE / ASTER / AAVE / UNI. All data is compiled for informational research purposes and does not constitute buy or sell signals.
1. Conclusion
Overall: BTC remains stable with slight fluctuations above $64.3K, ETH holds at $1.9K; none of the watchlist assets triggered the 8% threshold for 24h changes or the 15% threshold for 7d changes (UNI 7d -6.94% is the closest to the watchline). Market focus shifts to the Senate CLARITY Act procedural vote window on 8/7 and the July non-farm payroll release that evening. Geopolitical risks (Hormuz) have pushed oil prices up, but no obvious correlation with crypto has appeared.
Event density: High. CLARITY Act voting window, non-farm payroll release, escalation in US-Iran tensions (Gershm Island strike event), continuous net inflows into BTC spot ETFs (approximately $626 million accumulated over three days from 8/3 to 8/5).
Unlocks: HYPE unlocked 433,000 tokens on 8/6, which have already landed (multiple sources consistent, valuation between $22.6M and $23.45M with some variance retained), no on-chain evidence of unexpected selling pressure found; ASTER unlock approaching on 8/17, conflicting valuations remain unresolved, status pending verification.
Fundamentals: Aave TVL up 11.51% over 30 days (DefiLlama data), the strongest trend within the watchlist; UNI’s burn mechanism continues to advance (v4 fee switch activated on 7/27 with daily burns of $325K according to DefiLlama), though price has retraced over 7 days.