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#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
The real highlight of Super Micro Computer's earnings report isn't the revenue, but just how insane the demand for AI servers is.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) just released its FY2026 Q4 earnings, which can be summed up in one sentence:
Revenue slightly below expectations, but profit, gross margin, and future guidance are all very strong.
This quarter's revenue was $11.12 billion, nearly double year-over-year, but slightly below the market expectation of about $11.6 billion; adjusted EPS was $1.70, significantly above the market expectation of about $0.92. More importantly, the gross margin reached about 17.5%~17.6%, clearly better than the company's previously provided range.
① Why did the stock rise after hours?
Because the market didn't really care about the slight revenue miss.
What truly excited investors was the guidance for next quarter and FY2027.
The company expects next quarter revenue of $14.5~15.5 billion, while the market originally expected only about $11.8 billion; FY2027 full-year revenue guidance is $65~72 billion, far exceeding Wall Street's previous estimate of about $53 billion.
So the market's trading logic is simple:
Earning a little less this quarter doesn't matter; what matters is that future orders are still booming.
After the earnings release, SMCI's stock rose about 7%~9% in after-hours trading.
② Has AI demand cooled down?
From Super Micro's earnings, at least not yet.
The company disclosed new orders exceeding $60 billion and entered FY2027 with a record backlog; meanwhile, the number of customers with annual revenue over $100 million increased from 4 last year to 9.
This shows that AI capital expenditure is not just focused on Nvidia GPUs.
Capital is continuing to flow through:
GPU → AI servers → liquid cooling → data centers → networking → storage
The entire infrastructure chain is expanding.
Super Micro is right in the AI server segment.
③ What caught my attention most is the gross margin
One of the biggest market concerns about SMCI was:
Revenue is growing fast, but to win AI server orders, profit margins are getting thinner.
This quarter, the gross margin directly hit about 17.5%, well above the company's previous expectations. The company explained this mainly comes from a better customer mix and product portfolio.
This means if they can maintain both:
High revenue growth + stable gross margin
The market's valuation logic for them will change.
They won't just be a "low-margin hardware maker assembling servers for Nvidia."
④ But risks are also clear
SMCI's biggest risk now comes from rising expectations.
The company has raised its FY2027 revenue target to as high as $72 billion; any order delays, GPU delivery issues, or margin declines in upcoming quarters could cause significant expectation gaps. The slight revenue miss this quarter was partly due to delays in some customer infrastructure projects.
So SMCI now resembles SanDisk before:
Good is no longer enough; it must be consistently very good.
My understanding of this earnings report is:
This is not just a positive report for SMCI, but further validation that AI infrastructure CapEx has not cooled down significantly yet.
If subsequent earnings from optical modules, networking, semiconductor equipment, and data center companies continue to give similar signals, then this AI cycle is probably far from just "storytelling."
In summary:
Nvidia sells GPUs; Super Micro sells the shovels that truly put GPUs into data centers.
This earnings report tells the market: the buyers of shovels are still placing more orders $SMCI Space Stocks Diverge: RKLB and ASTS Reports Released Then Plunge, SPCX Rises
$RKLB and $ASTS both dropped after their earnings reports came out, but $SPCX not only avoided being dragged down, it actually rose 4.2%, reclaiming its IPO price of 135.
The reason is straightforward.
RKLB: Expectations Were Too High
Rocket Lab's Q2 revenue was $234 million, up 62% year-over-year, a record high, with an order backlog reaching $2.36 billion.
Looking purely at fundamentals, this earnings report is quite good.
But the market is really worried about two things: one, losses still exceeding expectations; and more importantly—the timing of Neutron's realization.
The high valuation for RKLB is largely based on the expectation that Neutron will succeed and enter the larger launch market.
So for RKLB, hitting record revenue is no longer enough.
The market is starting to ask, when will Neutron actually fly? When will profit margins improve? When will it truly make money at scale?
This is a classic case of a good earnings report that isn’t good enough to support a higher valuation.
ASTS: Commercialization Hasn't Caught Up to Valuation
ASTS's Q2 revenue was about $31.5 million, below market expectations; EPS loss was 0.77, also clearly worse than expected.
Of course, you can't just look at the loss number.
ASTS now has 13 satellites in orbit, contract backlog close to $1.3 billion, and over 60 partner operators.
So the problem is that the satellites are up, but formal monetization hasn't started yet.
This is a hurdle all high-valuation growth stocks eventually face.
Moving from talking about the future to delivering results.
Why SPCX Didn't Drop Alongside
First, there is a timing difference.
SPCX's rise during yesterday's regular trading session actually happened before RKLB and ASTS released their after-hours earnings.
In other words, even after those two dropped post-market, SPCX did not experience a significant sector-wide crash.
Because SPCX is trading on a completely different logic now: the negative news has been fully priced in.
Previously, the market feared that after the first batch of over 900 million shares became eligible for sale, early investors would rush to cash out.
But after the actual unlock, there was no sustained sell-off as feared.
So the logic reversed:
Unlock expectation
→ Preemptive sell-off
→ Actual unlock
→ Selling pressure less than worst-case expectations
→ Negative news fully priced in
→ Stock price returns above 135
Reuters coverage of this phase also shows the market was very sensitive to potential selling pressure post-unlock, but the actual price action is digesting that risk.
There is a deeper reason: SPCX cannot simply be understood as a rocket stock.
SpaceX’s latest 10-Q clearly divides the business into:
Space, Connectivity, AI.
Q2 total revenue was $7.814 billion, up 91.9% year-over-year.
Specifically: Space business revenue was about $962 million; Connectivity, mainly Starlink, was $4.291 billion; AI business revenue reached $2.561 billion.
So SPCX now essentially combines three stories: rockets + Starlink + AI.
RKLB’s Neutron delay risk does not equal fundamental problems at SpaceX.
ASTS’s slower commercialization does not equal slower Starlink commercialization.
In fact, in a way, the issues exposed by RKLB and ASTS earnings highlight SPCX’s biggest advantage:
Others are still proving their story; SpaceX already has large-scale revenue.
The space sector is beginning to stratify.
Previously, the market traded on: SpaceX IPO → space industry revaluation → everyone rising together.
Going forward, the market will trade on who can truly turn their story into revenue and cash flow.
ASTS is still validating commercialization.
RKLB is still validating Neutron.
SPCX has already entered another stage, with mature businesses providing revenue, and Starship plus AI offering new valuation potential.
That’s why last night’s declines in RKLB and ASTS did not simply transmit to SPCX.
Of course, this does not mean SPCX’s long-term valuation risk has disappeared.
On the contrary.
Short-term negative news fully priced in, and long-term valuation still expensive—both can be true simultaneously.
What’s worth watching are the 135 and 150 price levels.
But none of this changes the fact that $SPCX will eventually reach double digits first Funds are pouring in wildly but the coin price remains stagnant! BTC longs and shorts are completely split, with two key variables hidden in the market
Recently, many crypto traders must be very confused, completely unable to understand the current market trend.
Clearly, Wall Street institutions are pouring real money in aggressively, spot ETF funds are continuously flowing back in large amounts, and the data looks very promising. Logically, BTC should have already rallied and broken through. But the reality is, the coin price is stuck stubbornly around 64,000, oscillating sideways, neither rising nor falling, which is extremely frustrating.
Today, I will thoroughly explain the underlying logic, the truth behind the capital game, and the current state of contract harvesting. Once you understand, you'll realize this is not simply a bullish or bearish market, but an extreme split between longs and shorts.
First, let's talk about the institutional bullish factors everyone can see; the data is absolutely real and reliable. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of as much as $853.5 million in a single week, marking the best inflow since mid-April.
This large buying wave was almost entirely led by BlackRock, whose IBIT product accounted for the vast majority of incremental funds. Moreover, BlackRock has been continuously relaxing entry conditions, lowering the IBIT minimum conversion threshold by 96%, so now only $1 million is needed to participate.
The intention behind this move is very clear: to continuously open channels and attract more small and medium institutions for long-term positioning. What is certain is that Wall Street's willingness to allocate long-term funds has never weakened.
But why does the coin price not rise despite institutions buying aggressively? The core issue is the massive on-chain selling pressure, which completely offsets the institutional buying power.
On-chain monitoring data clearly shows that there are currently two waves of super heavy selling pressure continuously unloading. The first wave is from top whales, who have been selling nonstop for the past three weeks, cumulatively offloading 7,513 BTC; the second wave is from miner whales, who have been continuously transferring coins to Binance exchange for cashing out over the past 20 days, cumulatively transferring in 6,494 BTC.
On one side, ETF institutions are continuously increasing positions by billions, while on the other side, whales and miners are dumping in bulk and exiting. The strength of long and short funds completely cancels out, which is the fundamental reason for BTC's long-term sideways movement and inability to rise.
Even more brutal is that the market is not only stuck between rising and falling; the contract market is also continuously killing both longs and shorts, with harvesting intensity maxed out.
Within just 24 hours, the total liquidation data across the network is shocking. BTC's total network liquidation reached $44.4251 million, with long liquidations at $38.4452 million and shorts only $5.9799 million. The vast majority of high-level bottom-fishing retail investors were precisely harvested; ETH is equally brutal, with a 24-hour total liquidation of $32.7423 million, and long liquidations at $22.8875 million.
The combined single-day liquidation of the two major mainstream coins exceeded $77 million. In this narrow-range oscillating market, whether you go long or short, as long as you dare to use leverage, you are very likely to be cleaned out by the main players.
Moreover, the attitude of institutional funds has recently shown obvious divergence, no longer unanimously bullish.
Last week, the overall market warmed up, with BTC and ETH spot ETFs net inflows totaling $1.1 billion, seemingly very positive. But on August 10, the market sentiment suddenly reversed, with Bitcoin spot ETF turning to a net outflow of $91 million in a single day, while only Ethereum ETF maintained a slight net inflow of $5.3 million.
This indicates that institutions have begun to diverge internally, no longer uniformly optimistic about BTC in the short term. Funds have quietly started rotating their layouts, and potential risks in the market have quietly accumulated.
Currently, the entire crypto community's core focus is concentrated on two key variables, which will directly determine the subsequent market direction.
First, whether the continuous institutional buying from ETFs can withstand the ongoing selling pressure from whales and miners to break the current supply-demand balance; second, the CPI data to be released this week, which will directly rewrite macro risk appetite and decide whether global funds continue to stay in the crypto market.
Finally, some practical advice for all ordinary traders.
Do not blindly go all-in bullish just because you see ETF funds flowing in. This is a typical game of institutional long-term positioning versus short-term dumping by large holders in a volatile market, with no unilateral trend.
Short-term contract players must strictly control leverage; the $77 million single-day liquidation data is the most real proof of the current volatile harvesting; spot players should also avoid frequent operations and patiently observe.
Whether long-term or short-term, do not bet on direction at this stage. Wait for the CPI data to land, on-chain selling pressure to ease, and the market to decisively choose a direction before positioning accordingly. That is the safest trading approach.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在
$39.5 亿市值、仅 $182 万成交，换手率不足 0.05%——这是死盘，还是筹码极度锁仓的巨鲸巢穴？
CC 现报 $0.1002，市值高达 $39.5 亿，跻身加密货币市值前百，但 24 小时成交仅 $182 万，量比 0.0046%，流动性极度枯竭。价格在 $0.093-$0.101 区间微幅波动 8.6%，涨幅 3.37% 纯属无量空涨。这种“巨额市值、微量成交”的极端剪刀差，要么是团队/早期投资者高度锁仓，要么是做市商极度控盘，散户几乎无法以合理滑点建仓离场。
社交情绪全面缺位：热度排名无、多空占比零、综合情绪中性。近四十亿市值的项目却无任何社交声量，极不正常——要么项目方刻意低调，要么社区早已被清洗殆尽。聪明钱信号显示净做空、零持仓、零多头，即使专业机构也不愿触碰这种流动性陷阱，风险收益比根本算不出来。
核心判断：CC 是典型的“市值虚高、流动性枯竭、智能资金回避”的隐形巨鲸标的，非核心圈内人士极难参与，建议观察而非介入。Due to the combined advantages of capital and narrative. In July, ETH ETF net inflows were significantly higher than BTC, with the narrative more focused on innovations such as privacy, quantum security, and AI.
Capital side: Institutional preference shifts to ETH
- July net inflows: ETH ETF about $365 million, BTC ETF about $172 million.
- Structural differences: Institutional demand for ETH is about 2.8 times the daily issuance; BTC's institutional demand is about 23% lower than daily issuance.
- Divergent capital flows: On August 10, BTC ETF saw about $145 million net outflow.
- ETF outflows: On August 10, ETH ETF also turned to net outflow.
Narrative side: Technical roadmap with more imagination
- Vitalik updated the roadmap: proposed "Strawmap," prioritizing strong privacy, quantum security, and AI-assisted formal verification.
- Privacy: Introduced "key randomness" and "shielded transaction pools" to enhance on-chain transaction privacy.
- Quantum security: Elevated post-quantum cryptography to a core priority, planning to achieve post-quantum cryptography after 2029.
- AI and formal verification: Using AI to improve formal verification efficiency, ensuring code security through mathematical proofs.
- Scalability: Exploring native Rollups to improve network throughput and finality.
Fundamentals: Supply tightening and ecosystem expansion
- Staking lock-up: Over 36 million ETH staked, nearly 30% of total supply, further tightening circulating supply.
- Whale accumulation: Addresses holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH reached a historical high, about 19.6 million ETH.
- Corporate allocation: BlackRock holds about $1.21 billion in tokenized Ethereum real-world assets (RWA).
- Leading financing: Ethereum ecosystem projects lead in 2026 public token sale financing, about $334 million.
Regulation and geopolitics: Russia includes retail trading
- Regulatory progress: Russian central bank approved retail trading of BTC, ETH, and USDT on regulated exchanges starting September 1, 2026.
Clarifications and risks
- Not the only retail target: Russia's retail trading list includes BTC, ETH, and USDT; ETH is not unique.
- Short-term volatility: On August 10, ETH ETF turned to net outflow, indicating possible cooling of capital enthusiasm. $ETH $SNDK Observation Notes:
✅ Q4 current performance exceeded expectations: revenue, EPS, gross margin, data center business, long-term orders, and the 14 billion buyback are all positive factors.
⚠️ Negative point: next quarter guidance falls short of the market's high expectations, becoming the biggest concern.
Three core unresolved issues (awaiting August 13 Investor Day):
1. Weak guidance: is it financial conservatism or a slowdown in downstream demand rhythm?
2. Industry cycle: can the AI long-term contract model weaken NAND cyclicality, maintain high gross margins, and the supply pressure from peer capacity expansion?
3. Capital planning: execution pace of the 14 billion buyback, how funds are allocated (buyback vs. capacity expansion).
Key market levels: strong resistance at 1278.85; support range 1240-1245.
Trading strategy: before the event materializes, it will likely maintain a high-level oscillation pattern; avoid one-sided directional bets. The statements at Investor Day will be the catalyst to break the oscillation pattern.
#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解 📊 $SUI Liquidation Flash Report (August 12)
According to liquidation data, SUI's short-term direction switched rapidly, with mid-to-long-term long liquidations crushing shorts:
· Short-term (1H/4H): 1-hour long liquidations at $461.70, shorts at $111.53, longs are 4.14 times shorts, shorts slightly dominant; 4-hour longs $472.64, shorts $6,009.22, shorts crush longs by 12.7 times, a strong short squeeze at the 4-hour level, short chasers were selectively harvested.
· Mid-to-long term (12H/24H): 12-hour long liquidations $520,700, shorts only $24,200, longs crush shorts by 21.5 times; 24-hour longs $528,100, shorts $94,700, longs are 5.58 times shorts. Mid-to-long term long liquidation scale sharply expanded, 12-hour ratio reached 21.5 times, concentrated long liquidation outbreak.
· Total liquidations exceeded $622,900**, with long liquidations at $528,100, accounting for over 84.8%, a bloodbath for longs, the long liquidation trend unstoppable**.
⚠️ Risk Warning: SUI short-term long-short directions switch rapidly (1H longs slightly favored → 4H shorts crush), mid-to-long term shorts absolutely control the field, very high risk of both long and short liquidation. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, strictly control position size and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 12
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is moving from "storytelling" to fully "answering the test" — the capital feast of AI infrastructure enters its first round of return verification.
🏗️ Cloud Providers' Earnings Report: AI Investment Enters Return Verification Period
In Q2 earnings season, the four major cloud providers delivered the first "report card" on AI investment. Amazon AWS revenue $42.2 billion, +37% YoY, fastest growth in 18 quarters; Microsoft Azure +43% YoY, annual Azure revenue surpasses $100 billion for the first time; Google Cloud revenue $24.8 billion, +82% YoY surge. Combined cloud business revenue about $116.2 billion, +43% YoY.
More importantly, order backlog. AWS backlog reached $496 billion, triple-digit YoY growth; Google Cloud backlog $514 billion; Microsoft commercial RPO up 84% YoY to $678 billion — future revenue visibility is improving.
But the cost is real. Amazon's free cash flow turned from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion over the past 12 months; Google’s free cash flow under short-term pressure. The four companies’ quarterly capital expenditures soared to $151.4 billion.
The market votes with its feet: rewarding companies that can convert computing power into real cloud revenue, punishing narratives with investment but no returns.
📊 CPI Released Tonight: The Scale for September Rate Hike Hangs in the Balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, US July CPI will be released. Market expects overall CPI YoY to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Before data release, CME shows September rate hike probability at 51.2%.
Deutsche Bank expects CPI MoM at 0.15%, core CPI MoM 0.26%. Cleveland Fed forecasts July overall CPI MoM slight rise of 0.09%, core CPI MoM 0.21%. If tonight’s data beats expectations, hawkish camp will quickly expand; if moderate, rate hike expectations may further fade.
💰 Nvidia $500 Billion vs Intel $20 Billion: Diverging Paths
On August 10, two chip giants announced financing plans simultaneously.
Nvidia partnered with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, KKR and others to establish an independent computing power financing platform, aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital. Jensen Huang stated: "Computing power has now become infrastructure like electricity and the internet." Essentially turning GPUs from consumables into financeable infrastructure assets. After the announcement, Nvidia’s stock closed down 2.86%.
Intel announced issuance of $20 billion common stock, the largest single equity financing since its 1971 IPO. Stock closed down 4.06% on announcement day. Both paths point to the same conclusion: AI chip competition has escalated from a technology race to a capital race.
💎 Summary
Cloud providers prove AI demand is real with 43% revenue growth, but $151.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure reminds the market — the burn rate has never slowed; every basis point of tonight’s CPI may decide which way the September rate hike scale tips; Nvidia and Intel’s $500 billion and $20 billion financing plans announced the AI race’s official entry into a "capital-intensive" new phase. When industry logic, macro narratives, and capital strategies converge on the same day, the market is moving from "storytelling" to fully "answering the test." #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 Altcoins have reached a stage where even dogs won't play with them.
Although recently $CYS and other meme coins have surged one after another, the contract fee rate has remained positive, indicating that retail investors are no longer biting. The old tricks of dog pumpers manipulating spot prices and collecting contract fees are becoming ineffective.
In other words, dog pumpers can't find counterparties in the current market. As a result, some projects are paying people to post short-selling tweets to attract more retail investors to follow and short, truly a scheme with every trick planned.
There are no clear opportunities recently; the best strategy is to watch more and act less, especially not to be blinded by the various tricks of dog pumpers, or else the losses will outweigh the gains. U.S. stocks and risk assets contracted defensive positions ahead of the July inflation data release. The S&P 500 index remained in a narrow range, with market expectations for the Federal Reserve's September interest rate policy path evenly split. Inflation readings deviating from expectations will break the balance; higher-than-expected readings will boost hawkish rate hikes and sustained high-rate pricing, triggering cross-market selling pressure. If the published value meets or falls below cooling expectations, the position contraction trend will pause, and the direction of policy restructuring in September will shift toward easing expectations.
#贝莱德IBIT换购门槛降至100万美元 #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化#US July CPI and PPI data released this week
CPI announced tonight, PPI follows tomorrow night: Which one should ordinary people really watch?
These two terms are talked about every day, but they can actually be understood very simply: CPI looks at "whether the things you buy are expensive," while PPI looks at "whether the costs for businesses to purchase and produce are expensive." One is closer to the consumer, the other closer to the production side.
Tonight the US July CPI will be released, with the market currently expecting a year-over-year increase of about 3.4%, lower than last month's 3.5%; core CPI is expected to be about 2.5%, also slightly lower than last month's 2.6%. Simply put, the market is currently betting in advance that inflation will continue to cool down slowly.
Here's the issue. A few days ago, US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, signaling to the Fed "stop raising rates"; but the risk in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices up, and energy costs might push inflation back up. So tonight's CPI really needs to answer: Is the US now experiencing "economic cooling," or is it heading toward stagflation with "worsening employment + still high prices"?
Why watch PPI tomorrow? Because it’s more upstream. Raw materials, transportation, and energy costs for businesses rise first, and later may gradually pass on to consumers. You can think of it this way: CPI looks at how much you pay at checkout today, PPI looks at whether businesses have reason to keep raising prices tomorrow.
For BTC, there are two scenarios. 【CPI below expectations】Interest rate hike pressure continues to ease; if BTC can reclaim 64K and then break through 65K, I would clearly turn bullish. 【CPI above expectations】Especially if core CPI shows a monthly increase of 0.3% or more, the market may quickly reprice rate hikes and high interest rates, and BTC around 63K will continue to face pressure.
I’m watching three levels now: 63K is the immediate defense line, 64K is the level to stabilize again, 65K confirms a clear bullish turn. The most important thing tonight is not guessing the CPI number, but how BTC moves after the data comes out. If good news comes out and BTC doesn’t rise, that’s weakness; if bad news comes out and BTC doesn’t fall, that might indicate someone is buying.
In short: CPI looks at "whether things you buy now are expensive," PPI looks at "whether businesses will continue to raise prices." Watch CPI tonight, then PPI tomorrow night; these two reports together will decide if the Fed still has reason to keep raising rates. #USCPI #USPPI $BTC$LUNA is one of the most complete and unforgivable failures in the history of crypto. It is not a "project with hope," but a corpse token that has completely died and is still being speculated on emotionally by a few traders.
In May 2022, the algorithmic stablecoin UST collapsed, and LUNA plummeted from a high near $120 to almost zero, directly vaporizing $40–60 billion in market value. The founder Do Kwon has been sentenced to 15 years in prison by a U.S. court, Terraform Labs went bankrupt, and the SEC is pursuing massive fines. This is not ordinary market volatility but an event classified as large-scale fraud. Anyone holding or promoting the new LUNA is stepping on the wreckage soaked with countless people's blood and tears.
Terra 2.0 (new LUNA) was forcibly forked after the old chain completely collapsed. After airdropping to old holders, the vast majority immediately dumped. There is no real product, no credible team, no user base, only the slogan "we're starting over." As a result, new LUNA has also dropped more than 99% from its listing high, currently with a market cap of only about $30 million and extremely poor liquidity.
There are almost no meaningful applications or active users on-chain. Occasional price fluctuations are entirely driven by name collisions (such as the OpenAI model called Luna) or extreme emotional trading, typical of "dead coin hype." No revenue, no adoption, no moat, only endless negative branding and regulatory shadows.
The entire Terra brand has become synonymous in the crypto community with "systemic risk" and "algorithmic stablecoin scam." No matter how much the community shouts "revival," the market has long voted with its feet: funds, developers, and users have all fled. Continuing to hold or recommend it is tantamount to ignoring historical lessons and causing secondary harm to victims.
LUNA is not "falling and getting back up," but is already dead and still a corpse that a few refuse to bury. 📊 $CL Contract Liquidation Express (August 12)
According to liquidation data, CL shows a pattern of short liquidations crushing longs, with a short squeeze prevailing across all timeframes:
· Short term (1H/4H): 1-hour long liquidations at $0**, short liquidations at $58,300, shorts completely dominate; 4-hour long liquidations still at $0**, short liquidations at $111,700, shorts targeted and crushed, extreme short squeeze intensity.
· Mid to long term (12H/24H): 12-hour short liquidations at $649,700, longs at $130,800, shorts are 4.97 times longs; 24-hour short liquidations at $2,210,200, longs at $566,300, shorts are 3.9 times longs. Mid to long term short liquidation scale continues to expand, but 24-hour ratio narrows, indicating a shift in long-short strength.
· Total liquidations exceed $2,776,500**, with short liquidations at $2,210,200, accounting for over 79.6%, a bloodbath for shorts, and the short squeeze momentum is unstoppable**.
⚠️ Risk Warning: CL short liquidations completely dominate in short term, with very high short squeeze intensity; however, the 24-hour long-short ratio narrows to 3.9 times, caution for potential pullback at high levels. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, strictly control position size and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 12
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is moving from "storytelling" to fully "delivering results" — the capital feast of AI infrastructure enters its first round of return verification.
🏗️ Cloud Vendors' Earnings Report: AI Investment Enters Return Verification Period
In Q2 earnings season, the four major cloud vendors delivered the first "report card" on AI investment. Amazon AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, the fastest growth in 18 quarters; Microsoft Azure grew 43% YoY, with annual Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time; Google Cloud revenue was $24.8 billion, soaring 82% YoY. Combined cloud business revenue of the three reached about $116.2 billion, up approximately 43% YoY.
More importantly, order backlog. AWS backlog reached $496 billion, triple-digit YoY growth; Google Cloud backlog at $514 billion; Microsoft commercial RPO up 84% YoY to $678 billion — future revenue visibility is improving.
But the cost is also real. Amazon's free cash flow turned from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion over the past 12 months; Google’s free cash flow is under short-term pressure. The four companies’ quarterly capital expenditures have soared to $151.4 billion.
The market votes with its feet: rewarding companies that can convert computing power into real cloud revenue, punishing narratives with investment but no returns.
📊 CPI Released Tonight: The Scale for September Rate Hike Hangs in the Balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, the US July CPI will be released. Market expectations are for overall CPI YoY to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Before the data release, CME data shows a 51.2% probability of a September rate hike.
Deutsche Bank expects CPI MoM at 0.15%, core CPI MoM at 0.26%. Cleveland Fed forecasts July overall CPI MoM slight rise of 0.09%, core CPI MoM at 0.21%. If tonight’s data exceeds expectations, the hawkish camp will quickly expand; if moderate, rate hike expectations may further fade.
💰 Nvidia $500 Billion vs Intel $20 Billion: Diverging Paths
On August 10, two chip giants announced financing plans simultaneously.
Nvidia, in cooperation with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, KKR, and six other institutions, established an independent computing power financing platform aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital. Jensen Huang stated: "Computing power has now become infrastructure like electricity and the internet." Essentially turning GPUs from consumables into financeable infrastructure assets. After the announcement, Nvidia’s stock closed down 2.86%.
Intel announced a $20 billion common stock issuance, the largest single equity financing since its 1971 IPO. The stock closed down 4.06% on the announcement day. Both paths point to the same conclusion: the AI chip competition has escalated from a technology race to a capital race.
💎 Summary
Cloud vendors prove AI demand is real with 43% revenue growth, but the $151.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure reminds the market — the burn rate has never slowed; every basis point of tonight’s CPI may decide the direction of the September rate hike; and Nvidia and Intel’s $500 billion and $20 billion financing plans announced on the same day declare the AI race has officially entered a "capital-intensive" new phase. When industry logic, macro narratives, and capital strategies converge on the same day, the market is moving from "storytelling" to fully "delivering results." #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 CLAIM:
"If you had put $1,000 into Ethereum in 2014, today you would have $6.1 million."
No such world exists.
Ethereum turned 11 yesterday. To carry that $1,000 to today, you would have had to live through all of this:
1. 2014 pre-sale, ETH at 31 cents. You gave $1,000, got 3,215 ETH.
2. August 2015, chain launched, price $2.77. Your money became $8,900. Nine times in a year, you didn’t sell.
3. Two months later 42 cents. Your money dropped to $1,350. You lost 85% of your gains, you didn’t sell.
4. Summer 2016, it reached $67,000. At that moment DAO was hacked, chain split in two, your money dropped to 32k. The project’s future was debated, you didn’t sell.
5. January 2018, $4,604,000. Your life changed. You didn’t sell.
6. December 2018, $266,000. 94% lost in a year. Ninety-four. You didn’t sell.
7. March 2020, pandemic crash, $353,000. You didn’t panic.
8. November 10, 2021, $15,684,000. Retirement, house, all set. You didn’t touch it.
9. June 2022, $3,215,000. $12 million evaporated in eight months. You said hodl.
10. August 2025, $15,929,000. Second peak, the reward for ten years of patience. Again, you didn’t sell.
11. June 2026, $4,983,000. Two-thirds lost in ten months.
12. Today $6,173,000.
Yes, that $1,000 became $6.1 million. The claim is true.
But the twelfth step is not history. It’s today. And you are standing right on it, $9.7 million below the peak.
Now I’m coming to the real pain point.
Ethereum has done almost everything it promised in these 11 years. The chain works, the transition is complete, most of the world’s stablecoin traffic runs on it.
But this year the Ethereum Foundation laid off 54 people and cut its budget by 40%.
Technology won, price lost. Both are true at the same time.
Ethereum is the coin that teaches you can be right and still lose money.
99% of people sell at the third step, when $8,900 drops to $1,350. 0.9% flee at the sixth, when $4.6 million falls to $266k. 0.09% say enough at the eighth, seeing $15 million, which is not unfair at all.
The remaining 0.01% sit on $6.1 million today and are still not comfortable.
The issue was never about picking the right project. $ETH 🚨 $1.1B JUST FLOWED INTO BTC & $ETH … SO WHY IS PRICE STILL STUCK? 👀💰
This might be one of the biggest contradictions in crypto right now.
Institutional demand is clearly improving.
But price action?
Still hesitant.
The latest weekly ETF numbers:
🟠 $BTC : ~$853.5M
🔵 $ETH : ~$244.9M
That’s roughly $1.1B flowing into BTC and ETH combined.
And yet $BTC is still stuck around the mid-$60K region instead of breaking higher with conviction.
So what’s going on?
There are a few possibilities.
🏦 ETF demand is being absorbed by existing sellers.
📉 Traders may be taking profits into resistance.
⚠️ Derivatives leverage could also be overpowering spot demand in the short term.
That’s why I wouldn’t look at ETF flows in isolation.
The bigger question is:
What happens if these inflows keep coming?
Imagine this:
🏦 ETF buying continues
📉 Selling pressure fades
🇺🇸 CPI comes in favorably
💧 Liquidity improves
At some point, available supply starts getting thinner.
And when that happens, a market that has looked completely stuck can move very quickly. 👀
But there’s another side to this.
If ETF inflows start weakening while $BTC keeps getting rejected at resistance, the market could be telling us that institutional demand still isn’t strong enough to overpower distribution.
That’s why I’m watching flow persistence, not just one impressive weekly number.
One strong week can change sentiment.
Several consecutive weeks can change the market structure.
👀 $1.1B has arrived.
Now the real question is:
Can it actually move the market?
#BTC #ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #ETF #Institutional #Crypto #Liquidity #AIInfraEarningsWatch BEAT at $0.83, do you dare to catch this flying knife?
First, look at the surface: crash, crash, and more crash
A 53% plunge in 24 hours, smashed directly from 1.8 to 0.83, down over 70% in a week, falling from the June high of 11.4 to just a fraction now. Market cap shrank from billions to 300 million, trading volume surged, all panic selling. RSI is severely oversold, MACD shows a bearish alignment, it’s either a bottom or an abyss.
First thing: unlocking and dumping is real, but you might not know how brutal it is
On August 1, 21.25 million BEAT were unlocked, accounting for 6.9% of circulation, and the market absorbed it hard. But on September 1, another 11.25 million tokens are coming.
You think that’s all? Monthly unlocking continues until 2029.
But on the other hand, this month over 20 million tokens unlocked, price dropped from 2 to 0.83, market cap evaporated by 60%. Before the next unlocking wave, how low do you think it will go?
Second thing: the product is real, and buybacks are real too
Audiera is not just empty hype — a rhythm dance game on BNB Chain, adapted from the classic Audition IP, claiming a global user base of 600 million. AI music creation, Telegram mini-program, AI Agent all involved, with a complete narrative.
Weekly revenue is 800,000 BEAT, about 40 million tokens burned annually. But monthly unlocking is 20 million tokens, 240 million annually. The burn rate can’t keep up with even a fraction of the unlocking speed.
The product is good, but the tokenomics are brutal.
Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that must be watched
Falling from 11.4 to 0.83, a 92% drop. In 24 hours from 1.8 to 0.83, a 53% drop, with volume surging, indicating some are cutting losses while others are bottom fishing.
0.8-0.83 is the current support zone; if broken, look at 0.65-0.7. Above, 1-1.1 is the first resistance, 1.50-1.80 is a heavy pressure zone.
With such a drop, all technical indicators fail. RSI can get more oversold, MACD can get more bearish. The only thing that can save it is BTC stabilizing + favorable CPI + the project team delivering real value.
Key levels
Resistance above: 1.00-1.10 → 1.50-1.80 → 2.00+
Support below: 0.80-0.83 → 0.65-0.7 → 0.5
Trading strategy
Short-term gamblers:
Light long positions at 0.80-0.83, stop loss at 0.75, target 0.95-1.05. If it breaks 1.00, add positions aiming for 1.20+
Bearish players:
Sell high at 0.95-1.05, stop loss at 1.15, target 0.75-0.7. But bears beware — with this level of overselling, any good news can squeeze you out.
Mid-term players:
Wait for 0.70 to hold + volume rebound + K-line stabilization before considering. Or wait until the September 1 unlocking bearish news lands, and be ready to take the hit.#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
This once again confirms the strict logic: the market has moved from the narrative premium stage where AI-related stocks broadly rise, into a phase demanding performance slope and free cash flow accounting.
A brief discussion on SanDisk and Western Digital's earnings reports and conference calls, as well as the direction of storage in the second half of AI.
SanDisk delivered a very impressive earnings report: revenue nearly $9 billion, up 372% year-over-year, and 51% quarter-over-quarter; earnings per share exceeded $39, far surpassing the market expectation of $34. Even more remarkable is its gross margin of nearly 85%, more than triple that of the same period last year.
However, there are concerns about SanDisk's business structure:
1. Growth engine skewed: two-thirds of growth comes from price increases
SanDisk disclosed a key data point in the conference call: about one-third of Q4 revenue quarter-over-quarter growth came from increased shipment volume (bits), while as much as two-thirds came from price increases in NAND.
In terms of end-market structure, data center business dominates, with nearly $3 billion in quarterly revenue, doubling quarter-over-quarter and soaring nearly 13 times year-over-year. The proportion of data center shipment bits to total shipments surged from 12% a year ago to 38%. In contrast, consumer revenue plunged 32% quarter-over-quarter.
As the CEO said: "The consumer business can't keep up with the trading market's pace."
This means SanDisk's high profits heavily rely on the scarcity premium of enterprise-grade SSDs (especially TLC and the soon-to-scale QLC Stargate platform). Profits mainly driven by price increases carry inherent fragility 【Crypto Script】
#This Wednesday CPI release, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten?
I am Script Bro. Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US July CPI data will be released, and there will be big volatility again tonight. Last Friday night during the live broadcast, the non-farm payrolls already showed expectations of rate cuts, which is mildly positive for the crypto market and directly positive for gold and silver. The US job market is clearly cooling down, causing the market to start trading the logic of a September rate cut again.
But the key now is whether CPI can continue to confirm the inflation decline. If the data meets expectations, easing may continue, and both the US stock market and crypto market including BTC will rally. However, if core inflation persists, rate cut expectations may cool down again, and short-term corrections should be guarded against. So Script Bro reminds everyone in advance today to keep watching the CPI market tonight. The afternoon live broadcast will continue to analyze the market together, focusing on opportunities related to BTC, ETH, and AI.
From recent market trends, funds have actually been waiting for a clear direction. On the US stock side, Nvidia, Nvidia’s supply chain, and AI infrastructure-related companies continue to attract capital, but the market has shifted from purely speculating on expectations to focusing on earnings realization. Whether AI investments can convert into revenue will become an important factor for repricing. The same applies to the crypto market. The market is not lacking stories but is waiting for liquidity to truly return. Gold has been strengthening recently, with prices near $4400, indicating that safe-haven funds still prefer traditional assets, and BTC’s safe-haven attribute has not been fully released yet.
Back to BTC, after consolidating around 64000 for two days over the weekend, a rebound sign has finally appeared. The short-term focus is still on whether the 65000 level can be broken. Script Bro has emphasized before that 65000 is not just a number but an important dividing line for market sentiment. If BTC can break and hold above 65000 with volume, it means previous resistance is turning into support, and there is a chance to test 66000 or even higher. Currently, our long positions have also been established.
From a technical perspective, BTC has shown some short-term recovery, with MACD bearish momentum weakening and a low-level rebound structure forming. However, there is still resistance from moving averages above, so blind chasing of the rally is not advised. More importantly, observe the strength of the breakout. Script Bro’s own operation focuses on risk control. Previous long positions were all exited at breakeven near 66460 during the rebound, mainly considering the high market uncertainty before macro data release, avoiding gambling on data-driven moves.
Regarding ETH, it is still oscillating around $1900. If it can break above $1950 later, it may further boost market sentiment. Altcoins have shown mixed performance recently. Areas like AI, storage, and infrastructure still attract capital but have not triggered a full-scale rally, indicating cautious capital looking for certainty. For those trading SanDisk (SNDK), SK Hynix, and Micron, risk control is crucial. Be sure to manage positions well, or you could easily get swept away in a sudden move.
Script Bro believes the real key in the market now is not simply whether CPI is positive or negative, but whether BTC can hold key levels amid increasing macro uncertainty. If CPI continues to fuel rate cut expectations, BTC may see a new round of rebound. But if the data disappoints market expectations, short-term caution against another shakeout is necessary.
Tonight, focus on whether $65000 can be firmly held again, as this may determine the pace of the next market moves. What do you think? After CPI, will BTC break through $66000 or continue to oscillate and shake out? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $BEAT $VELVET — The AI narrative may not be enough to save the short-term structure.
After the sharp run from the June lows toward $2, $VELVET has already retraced heavily and is now trading around the $0.45–$0.60 zone.
Why I’m watching the short side:
• Unlock pressure: A supply unlock around Aug 10 adds potential sell-side pressure. • Valuation vs usage: Market cap remains above $200M, while TVL has stayed relatively small. • Distribution risk: Large transfers to exchanges were seen during the June rally. • Airdrop-driven activity: Leaderboards, referrals and farming can create temporary volume that may fade when incentives disappear. • Trust concerns: Previous security incidents and early audit issues remain part of the project's history.
The structure looks like:
Narrative pump → heavy distribution → unlock pressure → hype fades
AI + DeFAI can still create short-term volatility, so I wouldn’t blindly chase a short. But unless demand returns with real usage, $VELVET remains vulnerable to further downside.
Short bias > spot buying for now. Manage risk and wait for confirmation before entering.
$DOS #苹果测试长鑫存储芯片并展开初步供货谈判 Foreign media confirm: Apple is testing Changxin storage DRAM chips in iPhone and MacBook, both parties have started supply negotiations, planning to prioritize supply for devices sold in China.
Underlying logic: AI squeezes consumer-grade storage capacity, memory prices rise in the US and South Korea, Apple seeks supply chain diversification; Changxin has full capacity and mature technology, refuses to lower prices to win orders, gaining bargaining power for the first time.
Risk warning: uncertainties exist in geopolitical policies, technical adaptation, and mass production cycles; testing does not equal implementation.
Milestone event: domestic DRAM obtains Apple's full device validation, marking a critical turning point for domestic storage.🚨 The real AI arms race may not be happening in chips. It may be happening in the money behind them. 💰🤖
Everyone is watching who can build the fastest AI chips.
I’m watching a different question:
Who can finance the massive infrastructure needed to actually deploy them?
Nvidia is reportedly working with BlackRock, Blackstone and Goldman Sachs on a platform aimed at mobilizing more than $500B for customer data centers and GPUs.
At the same time, Intel is planning a roughly $15B stock sale to help fund capex, working capital, AI chips and advanced manufacturing.
The difference is important.
🟢 Nvidia: Trying to help customers unlock more capital to buy the infrastructure.
🔵 Intel: Raising equity to finance its own expansion.
Same AI boom.
Very different financing strategies.
And the market’s reaction is telling.
Both stocks fell, suggesting investors aren’t just asking:
“How big will AI demand become?”
They’re also asking:
“Who is going to pay for all of this — and what will it cost shareholders?” 👀
That’s the part I think deserves more attention.
The headline number may be $500B, but the real story will come down to:
💰 Funding terms
🏗️ Actual infrastructure demand
📊 Customer commitments
⚙️ Execution
📉 Capital intensity
Nvidia’s final deals are still pending, so the headline figure is far from the finished story.
AI demand may be massive. But financing that demand could become the next major battleground.
Not advice — just analysis.
#Nvidia500BAIInfra #Nvidia #Intel #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Semiconductors #DataCenters #AIInfrastructure #BlackRock #Blackstone #GoldmanSachs
#DailyOrbit Apple exploring CXMT memory chips could be about much more than finding another supplier.
Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix remain major players in Apple’s memory supply chain, and there’s still no confirmed agreement with CXMT. Any meaningful adoption would also face US regulatory scrutiny.
But even testing or preliminary discussions can give Apple additional negotiating power.
With DRAM supply already under pressure, the possibility of another supplier entering the picture could influence pricing, production volumes, and competitive dynamics across the memory industry.
The bigger question isn't whether CXMT suddenly replaces Apple’s existing suppliers.
It’s how those suppliers respond if Apple gains a credible alternative.
If the testing progresses and regulatory hurdles are cleared, Apple could have another lever to negotiate better terms while suppliers face greater pressure to defend their market positions.
For now, the story is still developing.
But Apple may already have changed the balance of negotiations.
Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#AppleTestsCXMTChips Yesterday, $SOL and $AAVE suddenly crashed, and the bears felt like another black swan was coming to the crypto market.
Interestingly, the market started to quickly recover overnight.
Actually, the real big test hasn't started yet today.
The US July CPI will be released tonight at 20:30.
Currently, the market expects the CPI year-over-year to be 3.4%, lower than the previous 3.5%.
So I prefer to interpret yesterday's drop as:
First, deleveraging → clearing panic positions → overnight repricing of CPI → waiting for data to confirm the direction.
If tonight's CPI is lower than expected, the funds that were forced out yesterday might actually become the fuel for a rebound today.
Especially for high Beta assets like $SOL and $AAVE, once BTC confirms an upward move, their elasticity could far exceed BTC.
So today, what I care about most is not "how much it fell yesterday," but whether the market continued to actively buy back before the CPI.
If the answer is "yes," then yesterday's big bearish candle might not be a trend reversal, but just a very nice shakeout.
At 20:30 tonight, the real direction will be revealed.
$BTC $SOL $AAVE📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (August 12)
According to liquidation data, all LAB cycles show a pattern where long liquidations overwhelmingly surpass short liquidations, with a widespread short squeeze:
· Short cycles (1H/4H): 1-hour long liquidations at $222.81, short liquidations at **$0, shorts completely targeted and wiped out; 4-hour long liquidations $605.31, shorts $1,700.75, shorts are 2.8 times the longs**, a rare short liquidation surge surpassing longs in the short cycle, indicating shorts chasing shorts being selectively harvested.
· Mid-to-long cycles (12H/24H): 12-hour long liquidations $42,400, shorts $4,701, longs crushing shorts by 9 times; 24-hour long liquidations $174,000, shorts $18,200, longs are 9.6 times shorts. Mid-to-long cycle long liquidation scale sharply expands, severe leverage liquidation.
· Total liquidations exceed $192,100**, with long liquidations at $174,000, accounting for over 90%, a bloodbath for longs, the short squeeze momentum unstoppable**.
⚠️ Risk Warning: LAB 1-hour short liquidations are 0, 4-hour short liquidations surpass longs, intense short-long battle in short cycles, shorts absolutely dominate mid-to-long cycles. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x, avoid blindly bottom fishing, strictly control positions and wait for stabilization signals.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 12
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is moving from "storytelling" to "answering the test" — the capital feast of AI infrastructure enters its first round of return verification.
🏗️ Cloud Vendor Earnings Report: AI Investment Enters Return Verification Period
In Q2 earnings season, the four major cloud vendors delivered the first "report card" on AI investment. Amazon AWS revenue $42.2 billion, +37% YoY, fastest growth in 18 quarters; Microsoft Azure +43% YoY, Azure revenue surpasses $100 billion annually for the first time; Google Cloud revenue $24.8 billion, +82% YoY surge. Combined cloud business revenue of the three is about $116.2 billion, +43% YoY.
More importantly, order backlog. AWS backlog reached $496 billion, triple-digit YoY growth; Google Cloud backlog $514 billion; Microsoft commercial RPO up 84% YoY to $678 billion — future revenue visibility is improving.
But the cost is real. Amazon’s free cash flow turned from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion over the past 12 months; Google’s free cash flow under short-term pressure. The four companies’ quarterly capital expenditures have soared to $151.4 billion.
The market votes with its feet: rewarding companies that can convert computing power into real cloud revenue, punishing narratives with investment but no returns.
📊 CPI Released Tonight: The Scale for September Rate Hike Hangs in the Balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, US July CPI will be released. Market expects overall CPI YoY to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Before data release, CME shows a 51.2% chance of a September rate hike.
Deutsche Bank expects CPI MoM at 0.15%, core CPI MoM at 0.26%. Cleveland Fed forecasts July overall CPI MoM slight rise of 0.09%, core CPI MoM 0.21%. If tonight’s data beats expectations, the hawkish camp will quickly expand; if moderate, rate hike expectations may further fade.
💰 Nvidia $500 Billion vs Intel $20 Billion: Diverging Paths
On August 10, two chip giants announced financing plans simultaneously.
Nvidia partnered with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, KKR and others to establish an independent computing power financing platform, aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital. Jensen Huang stated: "Computing power has now become infrastructure like electricity and the internet." Essentially turning GPUs from consumables into financeable infrastructure assets. After the announcement, Nvidia’s stock closed down 2.86%.
Intel announced a $20 billion common stock issuance, the largest single equity financing since its 1971 IPO. The stock closed down 4.06% on the announcement day. Both paths lead to the same conclusion: AI chip competition has escalated from a technology race to a capital race.
💎 Summary
Cloud vendors prove AI demand is real with 43% revenue growth, but $151.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure reminds the market — the burn rate has never slowed; every basis point of tonight’s CPI may decide the direction of the September rate hike scale; Nvidia and Intel’s $500 billion and $20 billion financing plans announced on the same day declare the AI race has officially entered a "capital-intensive" new phase. When industry logic, macro narratives, and capital strategies converge on the same day, the market is moving from "storytelling" to "answering the test." #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 🔑 CPI HOLDS THE KEY
Bitcoin’s attempt to reclaim $65K failed to hold, sending $BTC back toward $64K, while $ETH slipped below $1,900.
With traders cutting risk ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report, the next major move may depend less on chart levels and more on how the inflation data changes expectations for the Federal Reserve.
But one divergence stands out:
🏦 INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND IS STILL THERE
Spot $BTC ETFs recorded roughly $853.5M in net inflows, while spot $ETH ETFs attracted around $244.9M between Aug. 3–7.
Despite that steady institutional demand, prices remain under pressure.
The message is clear: ETF inflows are helping provide a floor, but they haven't yet been strong enough to absorb available supply and trigger a decisive breakout.
🇺🇸 Now, all eyes turn to CPI.
A hotter-than-expected reading could pressure risk assets, while softer inflation may strengthen the case for easier Fed policy.
CPI could determine what comes next.
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#CPIToResetFedBets
#AIInfraFundingDiverges 🧵 Memory Stocks: Short-Term Bounce, Bigger Shift Ahead
Apple reportedly testing Changxin Memory’s DRAM for iPhone and MacBook is more significant than it looks. It suggests major manufacturers are exploring alternative suppliers, potentially easing the highly concentrated memory supply landscape.
Despite strong earnings, memory stocks like $SNDK , SK Hynix and Samsung have faced heavy selling. Recent Korean market rebounds look more like short-term sentiment recovery after leveraged selling eased—not a fundamental reversal.
If Changxin eventually enters Apple’s supply chain, the bigger impact could be on future market expectations. At the same time, rising memory capacity and huge planned capex could gradually reduce the current scarcity premium.
AI demand remains strong, but the era of easy memory price increases may be fading.
Short-term bounce ≠ long-term trend reversal. Patience matters.
#OKXTraderVoices
#SP500Eyes8000
#WhiteHouseVsLisaCook BTC, ETH, SOL 2026/08/12 UTC+8 Intraday Trading Strategy
Note: Single leverage should not exceed 3-5x, or spot position should not exceed 20% of total funds. Stop loss can be slightly adjusted according to individual circumstances.
BTC, ETH, SOL | Daily Resistance and Support
---BTC-USDT---
Support: 63449.38, 63202.12, 62801.90
Resistance: 64249.82, 64497.08, 64897.30
---ETH-USDT---
Support: 1854.58, 1844.16, 1827.29
Resistance: 1888.32, 1898.74, 1915.61
---SOL-USDT---
Support: 74.64, 74.20, 73.50
Resistance: 76.05, 76.49, 77.20
Data is for reference only!
BTC:
Long: Base position at 63400-63500, add position at 63100-63200, stop loss at 62700, target 64200-64300 / 64600-64700
Short: Base position at 64200-64300, add position at 64500-64600, stop loss at 65000, target 63700-63800 / 63400-63500
ETH:
Long: Base position at 1853-1857, add position at 1842-1846, stop loss at 1825, target 1885-1889 / 1896-1900
Short: Base position at 1888-1892, add position at 1898-1902, stop loss at 1920, target 1870-1874 / 1850-1854
SOL:
Long: Base position at 74.50-74.60, add position at 73.80-73.90, stop loss at 73.30, target 76.00-76.10 / 76.40-76.50
Short: Base position at 76.00-76.10, add position at 76.50-76.60, stop loss at 77.50, target 75.00-75.10 / 74.40-74.50
Additional Notes:
Position ratio: Base position 40%, add position 60% (build 40% at base position zone first, then add 60% at add position zone; if the add position zone is hit directly, build 100% at once).
Asian-European session: BTC and SOL are currently near the midpoint, ETH is near the resistance zone. Priority is to wait for a pullback to the long base position (BTC 63400-63500 / ETH 1853-1857 / SOL 74.50-74.60) or a rebound to the short base position (BTC 64200-64300 / ETH 1888-1892 / SOL 76.00-76.10) before execution. Execute whichever side is hit first.
US session: If there is a volume breakout above the short stop loss (BTC 65000 / ETH 1920 / SOL 77.50), stop loss the short and reverse to long; if there is a volume breakdown below the long stop loss (BTC 62700 / ETH 1825 / SOL 73.30), stop loss the long and reverse to short.
Take profit: Reduce 50% at the first target, move the rest to breakeven and watch the second target; if stagnation or volume pullback occurs, close all positions.
The above levels are based on technical analysis and do not constitute investment advice, for reference only. Contract trading carries very high risk, please be sure to set stop loss. The market is risky, please operate according to real-time market conditions and your own risk tolerance.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ 你可能已经回本了，但有人还套在6万刀以上。 CryptoQuant最新数据揭示了一个有趣的背离——比特币市场的“痛苦指数”正在两极分化。 数据说话：两组人的盈亏天差地别 0-3个月持币者（新买家）： NUPL已回升至 -0.02，接近盈亏平衡 6月以来从 -0.13 明显修复 距离上岸，只差最后一口气 3-6个月持币者（中等持有者）： NUPL仍为 -0.14，深度浮亏 已实现市值回撤达 -69.6%，为过去90天最低水平 平均持仓成本仍明显高于当前价格 什么意思？3月份前后进场的那批人，现在是最难受的。 新买家在修复，老持仓在恶化 两个核心指标清晰地展示了这种分化： NUPL（未实现盈亏） 0-3个月群体：从-0.13回升至-0.02，接近上岸 3-6个月群体：仍为-0.14，压力沉重 已实现市值回撤 0-3个月群体：约-64% 3-6个月群体：-69.6%（90天最低） 新买家的压力在持续缓解，而中间层的浮亏还在扩大。 市场的主要压力，已经从“刚入场的人”转移到了“入场一段时间的人”身上。 这意味着什么？ 第一，6万美元是敏感的心理关口。 3-6个月持币者的建仓区间主要集中在今年3$BEAT — One wrong step can lead to another… hehe 😜
Both $BEAT and $BICO have been taken, and I’m honestly very happy with the results. 🥳🔥
The market has been brutal to altcoins, with many projects looking beaten down and forgotten.
But sometimes, that’s exactly where traders start looking for opportunities. 👀
🇺🇸 Wednesday’s CPI could be the next major catalyst.
The big question:
Will the CPI print rewrite September rate-cut expectations?
A softer number could revive risk appetite and give beaten-down alts some breathing room.
A hotter print could bring more pressure and keep liquidity tight.
For now, I’m watching the data, the reaction, and where capital starts rotating next.
Fallen alts aren’t necessarily dead — but timing and risk management matter. 😜
$BEAT $BICO
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #财报观察员：AI infrastructure earnings reports take the stage
As Morgan Stanley said, whether for storage or other manufacturing industries, to raise valuations, the market wants to see a reduction in long-term operating leverage, restrained capital expenditures, sustained shareholder returns, and improvements in business structure. If all the profits are reinvested back into operations, it’s just entering a new cycle loop, which is meaningless to stockholders. The market will reward companies that achieve the above points. Personally, I feel $MSFT has very ample cash flow, coupled with expected reduced capital expenditures. It is also a leader in AI applications, holding the entry point to most companies' work. WPS, the future narrative is worth looking forward to Today's Crypto News
1) The U.S. SEC will review the "Regulation Crypto" proposal on the 14th, aiming to establish a customized issuance framework for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets; if it enters the public comment phase, it means regulatory certainty is shifting from temporary statements to formal rules.
2) Ravencoin disclosed that a critical consensus vulnerability has been exploited on the mainnet, with some mining pools rebuilding the chain from before the first invalid block; exchanges have suspended deposits and withdrawals, and several days of trading may be rolled back, warning the market to watch for hash power concentration and settlement finality risks in smaller PoW networks.
3) Bitcoin is fluctuating between $62,000 and $66,000, with ETF buying pressure offset by selling from miners and corporate holders; the market awaits U.S. inflation data, and low volume and low volatility may amplify directional moves after a breakout.
Conclusion: Currently, this is an event-driven market characterized by "policy catalysts approaching, macro outcomes uncertain, and localized on-chain risks heating up." The cost-effectiveness of chasing trades is low; it's better to wait for inflation data and a range breakout to provide direction.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare The Strait of Hormuz is stuck again; a conflict is very unlikely to break out, but oil prices have already surged.
Scrolling through my phone tonight, I saw that trending topic saying the navigation agreement hasn't been finalized yet【IMG_3176】. I was thinking, this drama has been playing out since June, still oscillating between "close to agreement" and "on the verge of collapse." The current situation is that a war won't break out in the short term, but things aren't getting better either.
Both sides are now exchanging harsh words.
Iran has set sky-high conditions: permanent cessation of military actions, lifting all sanctions, returning frozen assets, and compensating for war damages. Meanwhile, Iran's foreign minister clearly stated that there have been no direct talks with the U.S. On the U.S. side, the rhetoric is even tougher; Trump directly declared that the U.S. military has "100% control" over the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides are talking past each other, not even on the same wavelength.
But a large-scale war won't break out anytime soon.
CCTV's analysis is very straightforward: the U.S. "military quick victory" plan has failed, and both sides know neither can defeat the other. The current state is a tug-of-war of "applying pressure while negotiating," with a very low probability of a full-scale war breaking out.
Oil prices have already exploded.
With the bleak outlook for the agreement, oil prices surged directly; Brent crude briefly broke above $90 per barrel. Traffic through the strait has also plummeted, dropping from 15 vessels on August 7 to 6 on the 9th. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has also fallen below 300 million barrels, the lowest since 1983. The market is now completely driven by news; any slight disturbance can cause oil prices to jump wildly.
The agreement is unlikely to be finalized in the short term.
Iran treats the strait as a core bargaining chip; the U.S. cannot accept all those conditions outright. The so-called "negotiations" currently are just Iran and Oman discussing technical navigation details, with no real agreement with the U.S. As long as fundamental differences remain, the agreement is just a piece of paper that can be voided at any time.
To put it bluntly, a war won't break out, and talks won't reach a consensus. Both sides are wearing each other down, waiting to see who breaks first. But for small retail investors like us, the only certainty is uncertainty itself. Oil prices are still fluctuating at high levels, inflation expectations won't come down, and without lower inflation, the Fed won't dare to ease. This drama is far from over.
#霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温 Recently, $GRVT has declined for a while. However, in my view, the $GRVT decline is actually not very large. $GRVT From its peak to now, the drop has only been about 25%, which is relatively small among altcoins. Currently, $GRVT has basically fallen back to a rising level. So now the question is, is it still worth shorting at this level in the short term? Personally, I think there isn't much short-selling value. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that its contract open interest is gradually decreasing, while the long-short ratio is gradually rising. This shows that many bears are now taking profits and exiting. Let's look at the data from a slightly longer period. It can be seen that its contract open interest has fallen back to its pre-rally levels, and the long-short ratio has risen to the level of August 7. Let's look at the candlestick chart on August 7. It can be seen that this was exactly the low point after the previous round of decline. If we follow the pattern of the previous rise and fall, there shouldn't be much short-term shorting at this stage. If this time is similar to before, then now is the time for a consolidation and correction. —————————————————— $GRVT is an on-chain exchange project, and I remember this project is a counter-farming project. In other words, the initial investment in this project will be relatively concentrated. Concentrated chips mean the market makers have some motivation to push the marketTrump is considering cutting capital gains tax
Bloomberg reports: The White House is discussing this possibility internally. If it really moves forward, it would of course be positive for the stock market—lower holding costs and reduced tax burden when selling, theoretically stimulating more capital inflow.
But the reality is:
1. Such tax reform requires Congress's cooperation; it's not just the president's decision.
2. There are divisions within the Republican Party over the deficit issue.
3. The market has already priced in various Trump 2.0 policy expectations in advance.
In the short term, it might boost market sentiment, but don't expect it to reverse the current volatility pattern. What truly impacts the market are inflation data, the Fed's stance, corporate earnings, and geopolitical risks.
Tax reform is a sweetener, but it can't cure the disease. Core Reasons for Ethereum's Continued Slump (Current Market Logic)
1. Structural Fundamental Negatives (Most Critical)
1. Weakening Deflation Narrative (Biggest Pain Point)
The Dencun upgrade (EIP-4844) significantly reduces L2 data costs, shifting a large volume of transactions to Layer 2; mainnet Gas fees remain low for a long time, and ETH burn volume has sharply declined, causing Ethereum to shift from periodic deflation to mild net issuance.
The market originally priced in “ETH scarcity and continuous burning,” but this expectation has been broken.
2. Layer 2 Prosperity, but Earnings Hard to Flow Back to L1
The Layer 2 ecosystem is thriving, but most fees remain on L2 and rarely return to the Ethereum mainnet; this creates an awkward situation of ecosystem prosperity without revenue growth for ETH itself.
3. Major Flaw of ETFs: No Staking Allowed
The US ETH spot ETFs do not allow staking to earn 3%~4% annualized rewards.
Bitcoin ETFs simply hold the asset without yield loss; institutional funds buying ETH ETFs cannot get staking rewards, making them less attractive compared to direct spot staking, significantly reducing institutional allocation willingness.
2. Capital Rotation: Funds Continuously Shift from ETH to BTC, SOL, etc.
1. ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Long-Term Downtrend
In risk-off scenarios, capital prefers Bitcoin (the digital gold narrative is purer); when the market warms, speculative funds flow to faster-growing public chains like Solana.
Ethereum is stuck in the middle: it lacks BTC’s “hard currency” attribute and also lacks the high speculative elasticity of new public chains.
2. Retail Interest Decline
NFT enthusiasm has cooled significantly, DeFi new growth is insufficient, MEME coin activity has largely shifted to Solana, and Ethereum lacks a sustained hot narrative to attract retail investors.
3. Regulatory and Expectation Uncertainty
1. The SEC has long-standing disputes over ETH staking and its securities attributes;
2. The upgrade roadmap has a long fulfillment cycle, with no immediate major positive catalysts to stimulate the market; the market is waiting for significant triggers but sees none yet.
4. Macro and Trading Aspects
1. In a high interest rate environment, risk assets are under pressure. ETH is a high-risk crypto asset, and its corrections are usually larger than BTC’s;
2. On-chain observation: a large amount of ETH is locked in staking (seemingly positive), but the momentum for new staking funds is weakening; at the same time, if panic occurs, unlocking and selling pressure from staking could suppress bullish confidence. Currently, the market for $BTC and $ETH is not favorable.
In today's altcoin market, the easiest illusion to create is "percentage gains." A coin surging 30% in one day does not mean it is stronger than a project that rises 10%; what truly matters is whether funds withdraw after the rise.
From the recent market structure, I tend to categorize altcoins into three types: trend funds, event-driven funds, and liquidity funds.
Among them, the ones worth focusing on are $JTO, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP, and $LAB.
$JTO's advantage lies in its Solana ecosystem infrastructure attribute and should not be simply valued like an ordinary MEME token. What really needs observation is whether, after the Solana ecosystem activity rebounds, funds reconcentrate on core applications and liquidity entry points.
$ALLO follows a different logic—RWA/Real World Asset narrative. If on-chain asset securitization continues to expand in the future, the valuation logic of such projects will gradually shift from "token price speculation" to TVL, protocol revenue, real asset scale, and user growth.
$BSB, $LAB, and $CHIP are better suited for a high-elasticity observation pool rather than chasing volume spikes. Focus on three key indicators: whether volume increase is accompanied by price breakout, whether pullbacks are supported, and whether OI growth synchronizes with spot trading volume. If only contract OI surges wildly without spot following, beware of crowded longs.
Conversely, for weak assets like $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $SPACE, $VIRTUAL, and $MEGA, the biggest risk is not the drop but the lack of sustained funding during rebounds. This kind of market easily forms a "bull trap" structure: a big bullish candle reignites FOMO, then liquidity quickly drains away.
Therefore, my current approach to altcoins is no longer to ask "which coin will surge immediately," but rather:
Who is still willing to buy after the rise?
This is the key to distinguishing smart money testing the market, short-term hot money speculation, and genuine trend fund accumulation.
The above is my personal sharing and does not constitute investment advice The return of $BTC and $ETH ETF inflows is not enough to call a durable turn while both assets are still trading lower on the day. At $64,038, $BTC looks more like it is absorbing demand than responding to it, which keeps my near-term bias cautious.
CPI is the cleaner catalyst now. Until it resets Fed expectations, crypto may remain caught between improving structural flows and tighter macro sensitivity. SOL’s relative resilience is notable, but not yet broad confirmation of risk appetite.
Not advice, just analysis.Brothers, today let's talk about something different — $XAUT (Tether Gold).
Just pulled data from Gate.io: XAUT/USDT is currently quoted around $4,375, down about 0.2% in 24 hours, with a daily high of $4,411 and a low of $4,340.
Essentially, this is a gold stablecoin issued by Tether, backed 1:1 by physical gold stored in Swiss vaults.
Simply put: buying XAUT on OKX is equivalent to directly holding physical gold stored in Swiss vaults.
Why the sudden rise?
Since early August, gold has risen over 7%, and XAUT has followed suit.
The core logic chain is simple:
US employment data weakens → Fed's September rate hike probability drops sharply from 80% to 54% → opportunity cost of holding gold decreases → funds flow back into gold
Plus two major backgrounds:
1. The People's Bank of China is buying: increased gold holdings by 640,000 ounces (about 19.9 tons) in July, setting a new monthly purchase record for this cycle, marking the 21st consecutive month of accumulation.
2. Tether itself is buying: currently holding about 140 tons of gold (worth approximately $23 billion), having purchased over 70 tons last year to replenish reserves and support XAUT issuance.
How to trade XAUT on OKX?
Gate has the largest trading volume for XAUT, but OKX also supports spot trading, directly matching traditional gold’s 7×24 hour trading without US stock market opening restrictions.
If you are bullish on gold’s mid-to-long-term logic but don’t want to open a US stock account to buy GLD, XAUT is a more convenient choice — buy directly with USDT, divisible down to several decimal places, no need to buy a whole gold bar.
What about the technicals?
· Current price $4,375, just shy of the round number $4,400
· Resistance above: $4,400 (psychological level), $4,572 (30-day moving average)
· Support below: $4,340 (recent low), $4,235 (50-period moving average)
Analyst view: Gold has broken out of the previous consolidation range, short-term trend is bullish, but RSI is already high, so profit-taking near $4,400 is possible.
My view:
This gold rally is supported by macro factors (cooling rate hike expectations), fundamentals (central bank accumulation), and geopolitical factors (safe-haven demand), not just pure sentiment speculation.
But note: Wednesday’s CPI data is the biggest short-term uncertainty — if inflation exceeds expectations and rate hike probability rises again, gold may face short-term pressure.
My strategy:
· For those wanting to enter: wait for a pullback to $4,340-4,350 to stabilize, then lightly go long with a stop loss at $4,300
· For conservative players: wait for CPI data before acting; if data is bearish for gold (inflation above expectations), wait for a lower entry point
· Long-term players: central bank buying logic for gold is mid-to-long-term; small regular investments in XAUT might be the most hassle-free way
XAUT’s logic is the same as physical gold — it’s not something to get rich quick, but for allocation and hedging.
💰 Today’s P&L: Didn’t act on XAU today, waiting for CPI to land. Let’s chat in the comments, are you interested in tokenized gold? Which do you choose, XAUT or PAXG?👇
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ Here's the most contradictory phenomenon recently: AI stocks keep rising, precious metals are also soaring, logically either risk-on or safe-haven assets should be able to boost crypto—but $BTC is falling along, not rising, clearly sluggish. This shows that the current market doesn't regard crypto as a "safe-haven asset" nor as a "high beta tech stock"; it's locked alone in a "waiting for its own catalyst" dark room. It can't get into others' parties. At times like this, grand narratives are useless; just patiently wait for crypto's own fuse—whether it's ETFs, regulation, or post-halving liquidity. Let's see how it goes.Trump firmly declares "Control the Strait, distrust Iran" — BTC $63,500 hanging by a thread!
Key Summary:
1. Trump's core statements:
· Claims the U.S. "controls the Strait of Hormuz," demonstrating military dominance;
· Clearly states "distrust of Iran," closing the window for diplomatic easing.
2. Situation assessment: The U.S. stance hardens further, combined with Iran's previous statements on "nuclear issue complications" and "indefinite blockade of the Strait," leaving almost no room for compromise. The geopolitical confrontation escalates from "friction" to "structural conflict."
3. Impact on BTC (Bitcoin) and ETH (Ethereum):
· BTC: $63,500 is the last line of defense. Currently, BTC is consolidating around $63,700, but Trump's "distrust" remarks completely dispel short-term reconciliation expectations, with oil prices and inflation pressures persisting. The $63,300-$63,700 long liquidation zone faces severe tests; if volume-driven break below $63,500 occurs, cascading long position liquidations will push the price rapidly down to the $62,000-$62,500 range.
· ETH: $1,870 support is fragile. Its high beta characteristic causes deeper declines in risk-averse environments. If BTC breaks down, ETH may accelerate downward in sync toward $1,800-$1,820, even testing strong support at $1,750.
· Core suppression logic: Persistent geopolitical confrontation → oil prices remain high → inflation expectations solidify → Fed rate cuts delayed → liquidity tightening expectations rise → systemic valuation downgrade of risk assets (including crypto). BTC's safe-haven narrative cannot function during early liquidity tightening.
In one sentence: Trust collapses, the Strait tightens, coin prices under pressure. The geopolitical winter is not over; cash is king. ❄️
$BTC $ETH The average daily number of transactions last week reached 11.6 million, setting a new network record, an increase of about 30% compared to the previous week; the total value locked (TVL) on-chain rose to $473 million, a week-over-week increase of 32%. However, the number of daily active accounts only grew by 3.3%, still 11% lower than the peak on July 16, indicating that the growth in transaction volume and TVL did not correspond to an expansion in user base. Meanwhile, the USDe supply on Robinhood Chain increased from $17 million a month ago to $253 million, accounting for about 43% of the total stablecoins on-chain, becoming a significant source of TVL growth. $BTC What truly deserves attention about Core is not that it is "taking over BTCFi," but that it is attempting to build a complete Bitcoin Finance infrastructure.
Currently, the official roadmap covers:
🔶 BTC LST
🔶 Bitcoin Staking
🔶 DeFi and Lending
🔶 SatPay Bitcoin Neobank
🔶 BTC Yield-oriented ETP/ETF direction
🔶 BTC Digital Asset Treasury (DAT)
🔶 BTC-backed Stablecoin application scenarios
🔶 Enterprise-level Bitcoin financial infrastructure
Core refers to these modules as the "Bitcoin Power Grid."
More importantly, Core's 2026 strategy has gradually shifted from simply providing BTC yields to:
BTC assets → Yields → Products → Users/Institutions → Revenue → CORE demand and buybacks.
But we must stay clear-headed here:
Among these directions, some have already been implemented, some are in progress, and others are still strategic plans.
So it is too early to talk about "taking over BTCFi."
What truly deserves observation in the coming quarters is:
How much BTC inflow?
How large is the LST scale?
Can TVL continue to grow?
Can SatPay bring real users?
Can institutional funds enter?
Can protocol revenue truly generate CORE buybacks?
If these indicators begin to consistently materialize, Core's "Bitcoin Power Grid" will gradually transform from a grand strategy into a real financial infrastructure.
This is what I believe truly deserves attention.🔶₿
Original statement: This article is a personal original research and viewpoint, representing only personal judgment and does not constitute any investment advice.｜X: JewelBTCFiLedger 分析师的统计显示,截至 2025 年初,有 230–370 万个比特币永久丢失。 主要原因不是黑客攻击,不是交易所倒闭,不是智能合约漏洞。 是丢失的密码和种子短语。 多数钱包丢失不是因为恶意行为。资产丢失来自正常的生活干扰:手机坏了,应用删了,笔记本换了,钱包重装了。没有正确的恢复方法,资产不会消失——它们会永久搁浅。 两难困境 种子短语备份策略需要应对三种失效模式: 1. 物理破坏 — 火灾、水灾、腐蚀、机械损坏 2. 被发现/被盗 — 有人找到备份并使用它 3. 丢失/无法访问 — 备份存在但找不到、读不出、用不了 纸质备份能应对第三种(任何人都能读),但完全无法应对前两种。金属板能应对物理破坏,但无法应对盗窃。 问题在于:针对一种风险的优化,会放大另一种风险。 多备份的悖论 行业标准建议:金属板备份放在至少三个地理分散的地点——家里保险柜、银行保险箱、信任的家人。 逻辑是单一地点的灾难不会同时摧毁所有备份。 但它引入新问题:一个金属板是一个盗窃风险,三个金属板就是三个盗窃风险。 银行保险箱不是永久的。银行会关闭分支、合并、重组,死后需遗产诉讼才能访问。信任的家人有自Apple / CXMT is the new Monday memory test.
Around 7:17am CT, $MU was about $864 pre-market, -1.5%, with $SNDK about $1,194, -1.5%, and $WDC about $429, -1.3%, while $QQQ was about $723, +0.01%, and $SOXX about $545, +0.3%.
Reuters, following the Wall Street Journal, reported Apple has tested memory chips from China's CXMT for iPhones and MacBooks. The New York Times reported the AI memory shortage has pushed the fight into Washington and many U.S. officials appear unsympathetic to Apple's effort to buy Chinese chips.
Our view: the tape is pricing a supplier-diversification risk headline first, but the near-term $MU reset still looks limited unless Apple wins approval for broader use or CXMT adds enough qualified supply to change FY27 pricing discipline. If the memory lane keeps lagging after the open, the market is likely testing that second step instead of just reacting to the headline.
source: Reuters / WSJ / New York Times#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $SPCX
Temasek of Singapore is making a big move to buy SpaceX $SPCX
In the latest disclosed holdings, Temasek holds about 9.83 million shares of SpaceX, valued at nearly $1.68 billion. SpaceX has directly become its fifth largest U.S. stock position, accounting for about 4.5% of the disclosed portfolio.
The top four are BlackRock, Google, Visa, and Nvidia respectively. The SpaceX position is now almost as large as Nvidia's, even surpassing Mastercard.
Essentially, SpaceX is still a super infrastructure company combining Space + Communications: rockets, Starship, Starlink, satellite communications are currently the core businesses. AI is more of a potential additional layer for the future,
But it’s very interesting to look at it together with Temasek’s other holdings:
Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, plus SpaceX.
What it’s really betting on is not just “AI stocks,” but the most core types of infrastructure for the next decade: computing power, chips, cloud, communications, and space.
A sovereign wealth fund making SpaceX its fifth largest position is already a very strong signal in itself. Tonight at 8:30 PM, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the July CPI data. This data is highly significant for the entire financial market, and for the crypto market, it is an undeniable macro report that could potentially end Bitcoin's recent volatility. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the overall CPI in July to be lower than June, while Market Watch data points to a month-on-month increase. Market views are currently divided, but the differences behind the numbers are far more complex than they appear on the surface. Citigroup believes that if inflation eases for a second consecutive month, the possibility of a rate hike in September will be largely ruled out. However, Bank of America bluntly stated that inflationary pressures in the U.S. may still exist, and the likelihood of a rate hike in September remains high. The reason for the divergence is that the July nonfarm payroll index was simply too weak. After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September on the CME FedWatch dropped from 57% to 44%, but by August 12, the probability had rebounded to 48%. Additionally, at the July FOMC meeting, three voting members advocated for an immediate rate hike, marking the first time since 2016 that all three voters held the same opposition. Therefore, the two inflation data releases in the coming month may become important indicators for determining the Fed's policy direction in September. Glassnode data shows that about 515,000 BTC, over 3% of the circulating supply, have seen turnover around $63,000. The 200-week moving average is also currently around 63,000. The above 69,000 yuan is the cost for short-term holders, which is the average cost price of buyers over the past five to six months.Every time there's a war or geopolitical news, someone in the comments shouts, "Safe-haven funds are flowing into $BTC ." Wake up. This round, gold keeps hitting new highs, silver is soaring, but crypto prices are stagnant—because in the current macro framework, war is not priced as a "safe haven" but as "oil prices rising → inflation → higher and longer-lasting interest rates." Interest rates are the gravitational pull for risk assets. If you want to know whether war is bullish or bearish for crypto, first look at where the two-year US Treasury yield is heading; don't just stare at news headlines and imagine. Treating gold's new highs as bullish for $BTC is one of the most expensive illusions in the past six months. 🚨山寨季从来不是一场普惠盛宴，而市场正在用血淋淋的数字把这件事讲得越来越清楚。自特朗普正式就任以来，主流山寨币的走势几乎可以称得上集体塌方：$XRP跌了19%，$SOL跌了30%，$ADA重挫41%，$DOGE、$SUI、$AVAX同步崩塌超过50%，$TON、$DOT、$ENA、$UNI、$PEPE更是一路跌向60%左右的深渊。📉这些不是小币种，而是每个板块里市值最靠前的“顶流”。但它们依然扛不住资金撤离的碾压。 我们是不是该停下来问一句：大家苦等的那场山寨季，到底去哪了？👀市场正在教一堂关于残酷现实的课。一个故事讲得再好，不代表价格就会起飞；一个代币社区声势再大，也未必跑赢大盘；长期持有更不等于信念坚定——那可能只是单纯的沉没成本魔咒。过去大家习惯的“板块轮动、鸡犬升天”，这一轮似乎彻底变了。 量变正在积累成质变。市场的资金池并没有干涸，而是水流的方向变了。🔥钱不再是均匀地洒向每一个代币，而是高度选择性地涌入少数核心资产。几百个山寨币在阴跌中缓慢失血，只有少数被真正看中的标的还在虹吸流动性。这种两极分化的状态，恰好定义了当前周期的核心特征：这不是一个“等风来”的阶段，而是一Trump has sent another major signal: the U.S. capital gains tax may face a historic adjustment! 🔥
If this policy really takes effect, it won't just affect the wealthy.
It will impact all long-term investors.
The biggest problem with the current U.S. tax code:
The money you earn isn't necessarily your real profit.
For example:
You buy stocks for $100,000.
Five years later, they rise to $200,000.
Under current rules:
You made $100,000 and need to pay capital gains tax on that $100,000 profit.
But here’s the issue:
What if the dollar has depreciated by 20% due to inflation over those five years?
Your real purchasing power gain isn’t actually $100,000.
If future capital gains tax allows cost basis adjustments for inflation:
The $100,000 purchase cost might be adjusted to $120,000.
Ultimately, tax would only be applied to the $80,000 real gain.
Simply put:
In the future, you might no longer pay tax on “fake profits” created by inflation.
This is a major change for long-term asset investors.
Because over the past decades:
The biggest invisible enemy for investors isn’t just market volatility.
It’s also:
Inflation.
You hold stocks, gold, real estate, BTC for years, and the paper value doubles.
But part of that is just a numerical change caused by the decline in currency purchasing power.
If the policy changes:
✅ Lower holding costs for the long term
✅ Stronger willingness to allocate capital
✅ More funds may flow into quality assets
Additionally, the market is discussing:
Whether capital gains on homes under $2 million will be completely tax-exempt.
If pushed through, the U.S. real estate market could also see new stimulus.
Of course, whether this policy ultimately passes depends on fiscal pressures and political battles.
But the direction is worth watching:
The U.S. is redefining capital market rules.
In the past:
Asset holders faced the double pressure of inflation + taxes.
In the future:
Policies may start encouraging long-term investment.
For assets like stocks, gold, and Bitcoin:
The biggest rallies often don’t come from short-term news.
They come from institutional changes.
When rules start to change, capital flows will follow. #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 $BTC Coinbase Business just upgraded its payment suite: AI agents can trade directly via the x402 protocol, and payment links, checkout, and billing now fully support USDT. USDT paid in by customers is automatically converted to USDC and then settled in real-time to the merchant's account.
What's interesting is not just the addition of another stablecoin, but the separation of "what the user pays" and "what the merchant receives." Merchants don't have to bear the management costs between USDT and USDC themselves, and the AI Agent can directly act as the payer.
The next step in stablecoin payments is probably this kind of seamless backend experience.I'm struggling to see how ETH can survive the next few years.
> Revenue has disappeared; looks like $ETH will be net inflationary forever
> ETH can never be a store of value, because of the recurring issuance debate and in general because of Vitalik's constantly-changing, weirdly-ambitious upgrade plans. Too much uncertainty. $ZEC is a better bet for an SOV to compete with BTC than ETH is
> L2s don't pay meaningful money to Ethereum. They are centralized chains which actually don't have censorship resistance and they only use Ethereum for distribution
> Ethereum will gradually lose TVL to newer chains with more apps and more users. This is already happening and it will accelerate in the coming years
Yes, Ethereum will always exist. It will be a digital sanctuary for cypherpunks. But most people are not cypherpunks.
To me it looks like $ETH is in a terminal decline.