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Recently, the crypto market has been doing quite well, with $BTC and $ETH both rising significantly. If previously speaking, $BTC's gains should have been greater than $ETH. But this time it's different—this time, $ETH's gains have surpassed $BTC. From the $ETH/$BTC exchange rate, it's clear that $ETH's gains are indeed quite significant. What does this mean? Does this mean $ETH is about to return to spring? —————————————————— We need to understand one thing: why has $BTC's previous gains always surpassed those of $ETH? I believe this is mainly thanks to $MSTR, which for a long time was a buy-only but not sell-only company. No matter how much $BTC is priced, this company keeps buying, buying, buying. Then, the price of $BTC was maintained. Now the situation has changed; this company not only buys $BTC but also sells $BTC. This means it is now difficult to have a firm super buyer in the market. —————————————————— We also need to know one thing: why does $ETH always drop so much? I think there are mainly two reasons: one is that staking generates a continuous stream of returns, and the other is that the market has always suspected that $ETH might be challenged by some other public chain. Currently, neither of these two issues has been resolved. $ETH AnnuallyTo those of us who have stayed in the market for a long time (repost):
Let's start with the characteristics of people like us: those who truly stay in the market for a long time are usually hard to simply define as investors, speculators, or traders.
When it comes to looking at a company's long-term value, we are investors.
When we study cycles, policies, events, and expectations gaps, we are speculators.
When adjusting positions based on price, liquidity, and market structure, we are traders again.
All three identities often coexist, and sometimes we are arbitrageurs cashing in airdrops and cashing in on cash. This means we believe in long-term value while respecting price.
Be patient and act quickly when the odds change.
You have to endure long silences as well as short-term huge information density and financial fluctuations. This lifestyle gradually shapes a person's character.
We tend to focus more on probability than promises, more on behavior than on words, and more on long-term fulfillment ability than on fleeting emotions. We are used to looking for information gaps, identifying risks, judging motivations, and leaving a margin of safety for the worst-case scenario.
On Monday, July 27, 2026, the market experienced intense volatility. The CSI 1000 rose 3%, crude oil retreated nearly 10% from 93, and the S&P rebounded 1% pre-market to now at 746+. Changxin's A-share closing price today was 49 (equivalent to $7.24 in USD), and on hyperliquid, Changxin (ticker: CXMT) is currently $6.9
Here are some of the trades I made today
On the first day of trading, such prices are neither hesitant nor worth moving from an investor's perspective (if the market cap is too high, don't go long; the funding rate of 2000-3000 means shorts pay huge interest to longs every hour, making short selling extremely costly).
But today, there are indeed some trading opportunities. While not suitable for long-term holding, they are very suitable for short-term T+0-driven discount arbitrage: on-chain contracts were once discounted by 8%+ compared to spot A-shares, and bulls can also take advantage of the sky-high funding rates paid by short sellers for free. In terms of operations, actively go long as liquidity providers, benefiting from "discount repairs" and "funding rate subsidies." The afternoon opened with good luck, just at the day's highest point, perfectly taking profits. (Consider a scenario where the lottery winner sells their Changxin holdings to go long on CXMT to push the premium to narrow)
Pay attention to risk control—arbitrage under negative rates is essentially taking advantage of the fire. You must strictly implement risk budgeting: first decide the maximum loss you can afford for this trade, then use that to deduce your position and stop-loss line. The lesson is that last time you went long on RAVE, you lost $50,000.
Bought one lot of CSI 1000, feeling good today. Profited from some emotional gains
If I sell a small put lot, I'd be willing to add another lot if crude oil drops another 6%.$BEAT update.
Since I first noticed the unusual on-chain activity, the price has already increased by about 30%.
And the most interesting thing is that the tokens that I tracked on Gate never turned into the expected dump.
On the contrary, the flows have reversed.
Large volumes began to be withdrawn from exchanges:
~$2M and ~$2.1M with Gate
~$1M with MEXC to one address
In addition, Gate withdrew 1.44M $BEAT about $5.4M from cold storage.
And about 800K $BEAT worth ~$2.8M was sent to dead address.
Two days ago, tokens were massively supplied to exchanges.
Now they are leaving.
It seems that someone was either quietly selling on power or completely changed plans.
So far, withdrawals are clearly in favor of savings. #贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟 In an era where AI-generated reality becomes possible, what needs to be verified is no longer just a piece of information, but the environment itself. Author: OKX
In the first half of 2026, the crypto industry experienced 182 public security incidents, resulting in losses of approximately $956 million. More alarming than the total losses is the whereabouts of the funds: according to SlowMist's statistics, only 18 cases of stolen funds in the first half of the year were recovered or frozen, totaling about $118 million, accounting for 12.3% of total losses. The remaining nearly 90% of stolen funds are irrecoverable. Another figure is easily misinterpreted: $956 million is nearly 60% lower than the same period last year, but this does not mean the industry is safer. The loss pullback is almost entirely due to last year's single massive event (about $1.5 billion) that has not been repeated; The actual number of events increased by about 50% year-on-year. The attacks have not weakened; instead, they have shifted direction—from targeting protocol contracts to targeting individuals. The two most damaging attacks in the first half of the year failed to succeed by breaking smart contracts: Drift Protocol was swept away by a six-month social engineering infiltration that cost about $285 million, starting with just a few "unapparent" transactions signed by a single multi-signature signer; A victim in Singapore was invited into a video conference with all senior government officials generated by AI, resulting in losses of about 4.9 million SGD. The most expensive vulnerabilities appear in people. This is the OKX Web3 Security Team Joint Slow ActionChangxin was listed today.
During the session, it surged to 3.5 trillion, then closed back at 3.2 trillion. The whole network is shouting about the explosive first-day surge.
But what really gave me chills wasn’t this candlestick.
It was that two weeks ago, on Hyperliquid, the pre-market perpetual contract for CXMT had already priced it at 3.4 trillion RMB.
At that time, the A-share market didn’t even have a real quote yet, but the blockchain had already marked the market’s future position in advance. Today’s spot market opening basically followed the footprints on the chain.
A bit of background for those who haven’t followed this line. This contract is called $CXMT-USDC, passed Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 on July 15, deployed by http://trade.xyz, pre-market price at $7.51, corresponding to 66.8 billion shares, implying a market cap of about $502.3 billion. That’s 5.9 times the official valuation issued by Changxin. At the time, Big Orange wrote a very solid breakdown concluding in two words: expensive.
I agree with that conclusion.
Changxin’s global DRAM market share is only about 7% to 8%, and HBM revenue is basically zero. Yet the on-chain valuation is already half of Micron’s. To put it another way, each 1% of Micron’s HBM share is worth about $47.6 billion, while each 1% of Changxin’s ordinary DRAM share is valued at six to seven billion. The market is willing to pay a higher unit price for its most mediocre business than Micron’s most profitable segment.
This is not pricing Changxin for today. This is treating the slow and difficult script of "catching up to SK Hynix in five years" as if it has already happened, with zero discount brought forward to today’s books.
According to Duan Yongping’s punched-card logic, a truly good company is one you either don’t buy or have to buy—Moutai is, Apple is, $BTC is; Changxin counts as half. Domestically, it is indeed scarce, strategic, and irreplaceable, but between "domestic monopoly" and "global pricing power" lies the hurdle of technological generations.
This hurdle was first crossed by SMIC for us. The same script: full policy support, absolute domestic leader, irreplaceable status. Yet it never received a valuation on par with TSMC. Because ultimately, what prices a company are yield, gross margin, cash flow, and global competitiveness—not sentiment.
Logical validity and whether this price is worth buying are two different things. This is the phrase that those rushing in today should remember most.
Actually, this scene is very similar to SpaceX going public. Scarce assets, combined with a high entry barrier and pumped-up sentiment, surge on the first day then slowly decline. Changxin’s price includes too many non-cash-flow elements: domestic substitution, sole leader, HBM imagination, and the most subtle layer—channel scarcity. The STAR Market’s 500,000 yuan threshold blocks overseas money, so "finally being able to buy Changxin" itself becomes a premium. People are buying a ticket to enter, not the company’s earnings.
But I want to say something different from the bears.
Most people read this as a bubble. I see something more important. For the first time, the chain independently completed a price discovery before the traditional market opened, and it didn’t deviate much.
A synthetic perpetual contract priced an A-share that retail investors couldn’t buy at all almost correctly two weeks in advance. This is not how a casino should behave; this is how a pricing machine should behave.$AAVE Market Outlook
Current Price: $100.23
$AAVE is holding strong relative strength (+8.1%), consolidating above key psychological support as DeFi lending demand drives active buyer defense.
Support: $92.50 – $96.00
Resistance: $108.00 – $116.00
Targets: $108.00 ➔ $116.00 ➔ $128.00
Holding above $92.50 maintains the bullish expansion trajectory. $NEAR Market Outlook
Current Price: $1.84
$NEAR is consolidating cleanly near key horizontal demand, with steady layer-1 activity absorbing sell pressure to establish a local support floor.
Support: $1.68 – $1.76
Resistance: $2.05 – $2.30
Targets: $2.05 ➔ $2.30 ➔ $2.65
Holding above $1.68 keeps the structural bounce play active. BTC 已回到约 6.52 万美元，但上周美国现货比特币 ETF 的资金轨迹非常反复。
7 月 20—22 日，ETF 连续三天净流入约 4.99 亿美元；23—24 日又连续净流出约 4.65 亿美元。整周算下来，只剩约 3390 万美元净流入。
这组数据更像“机构在交易反弹”，还不能证明资金已经形成单边回归。
Glassnode 给出的两个关键区域是：6.3 万美元附近存在较厚的需求筹码，6.9 万美元附近则是短期持有者成本线。现在的价格仍在两者之间。
所以，与其争论“牛回没回来”，不如观察两个确认信号：ETF 能否连续数日恢复净流入，BTC 能否放量站稳 6.9 万美元。
**互动：你认为 BTC 下一步会先突破 6.9 万，还是先回踩 6.3 万？评论区打“突破”或“回踩”。**
$BTC $LAB Internal news: Binance is going to remove LabOne question arises: why is $SAFE perpetual contracts on one exchange but only spot contracts on another? Is it because the latter is not optimistic about SAFE?
The answer is actually no.
Whether an exchange goes live on perpetual depends not on whether the project has value, but on whether the contract is worth operating.
Before a perpetual contract goes live, exchanges typically evaluate several factors:
(1) Whether the spot price is stable enough to construct the index price;
(2) Whether market makers are willing to continue providing liquidity;
(3) Whether enough users are willing to trade to maintain continuous transactions;
(4) Whether extreme market conditions are prone to risks such as insertion or forced positions;
(5) Whether the fee income generated after launch covers operational and risk control costs.
SAFE has met the basic requirements—otherwise, no exchange would have listed SAFEUSDT perpetually.
The real difference is:
* An exchange believed that SAFE's trading demand was sufficient to support a perpetual market, so it chose to go public.
* Another exchange currently believes SAFE has not yet reached its perpetual product priority and therefore is currently only offering spot trading.
This is more like the two exchanges' product strategies and user structures differing, rather than their different judgments of project value.
Perpetual contracts reflect trading demand, not fundamental value. For research projects, it is recommended to use "whether it is permanent" as a market maturity indicator, rather than an investment rating.
It can be understood as:
The fundamentals of the project are mature
→ Improved spot liquidity
→ Market makers enter
→ Increased user trading demand
→ Some exchanges have launched perpetual offerings
→ More arbitrage and quantitative capital participation
This is a process of market evolution, not a value certification.
For SAFE, what deserves even more attention are:
* Whether the adoption rate of Safe smart accounts continues to increase;
* Whether protocol revenue can be further transferred to SAFE tokens;
* Are more exchanges supplementing perpetual products?Day 45 | Oil Prices Crashed, BTC Returns to 65K: What Should We Watch Before the FOMC?

Brothers, let me tell you something counterintuitive.

BTC just went through a sharp 7-hour drop of 2000 points, hitting a low of 63666, with $323 million in leverage liquidated across the market. But now, it’s back near 65000.

It’s not that the market forgot the pain; the script has changed.

The biggest change is in oil prices.

Last week, Brent crude briefly surged past $100/barrel, freaking out the market—"Second inflation wave is coming! The Fed will hike rates to death!" But over the weekend, the US and Iran paused attacks, raising hopes for a ceasefire. Oil prices opened Monday with a 5% crash, Brent dropping to around $92.

The biggest inflation risk bomb defused itself before the FOMC meeting.

How big is this change?

Oil price up → inflation expectations rise → rate hike probability increases → risk assets under pressure. The reverse is also true—oil price down → inflation expectations cool → urgency for rate hikes drops → risk assets catch a breather.

CME data shows September rate hike odds jumped from 57% a week ago to 82%, but with this oil price drop, expectation gaps are brewing.

But don’t celebrate too soon. Two variables remain unresolved.

One is the Clarity Act. The bill is at the "1-yard line," about to pass, but Democrats are still demanding stricter terms. The longer negotiations drag, the less patience the market has.

The other is ETF fund flows. Seven consecutive days of net inflows ended on July 23-24, with over $465 million outflow in two days. Although the whole week still saw a net inflow of $33 million, marking three weeks in a row, the outflow rhythm shows institutional confidence remains fragile.

What’s the current market structure?

BTC is oscillating near 65000, the panic index has risen from 11 at the start of the month to around 30, but it’s still in the "fear" zone.

Resistance above is at 65200-65300 (1-hour MA7); a breakout could target 65900-66900. Support below is at 64200-64300 (1-hour MA30) and 63700-63800 (short-term buying concentration zone).

RSI rebounded from the oversold 30% area to about 50%, but the purple downtrend line from the June 2025 high is still pressing down; breaking this line is the signal for trend confirmation.

AIX’s judgment today:

Before the FOMC (early July 30), it’s likely to continue narrow oscillation between 64200-65300.

Long window: If BTC stabilizes after a pullback to 64200-64300 or shows volume contraction and stops falling at 63700-63800, light long positions can be tried. Stop loss at 63800 or 63200 depending on the zone, target 65200-65500.

Short window: If BTC rebounds to 65200-65300 but meets resistance with volume contraction, short-term play for a pullback is possible. But if it breaks out with volume, abandon shorts and wait for pullback confirmation.

Why not chase?

After leverage liquidation, the quick recovery near 63,600 shows buying is still there. But before the FOMC, no one dares to bet heavily. The meeting early Thursday will bring three scenarios: hawkish → 63,000; neutral → oscillate between 63,000-65,000; dovish → push above 65,500.

The real game is before the meeting. Oil prices have already dropped, and BTC is back at 65K.

Don’t wait for the FOMC to chase. The real alpha is when others are still guessing, and you’ve already seen it.

What do you think? Will the FOMC be hawkish or dovish? Let’s discuss in the comments.


#AI交易 #AIX智能体 #交易日记 #FOMC前夜Big money is moving, but I haven't—here's my real thought right now.
Scrolling through these past few days, I've really been a bit dazed.
Vanguard has officially embraced crypto assets. Take that world-class asset management company that once claimed to "never touch crypto," and everyone remembers how tough it was before—in 2024, they even refused to launch a Bitcoin futures ETF, saying it didn't fit their investment philosophy. Then New York Mellon began piloting tokenized Treasury bonds, Citadel spent $400 million on Crypto.com, and spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows for several consecutive days, attracting over a billion dollars in total.
A year ago, any one of these news stories could have swept up the market.
But the current reality is: BTC is fluctuating around 65,000, the fear index is still 28, and very few people in the group chat about the market; most are waiting for the July 29 FOMC.
Here's the problem—institutions are aggressively positioning, while retail investors are collectively lying flat. This divergence made me think about it for quite a while.
Institutions are truly buying. On-chain data shows that large transfers have noticeably increased, and the BTC balance in wallet addresses is increasing. And it's not the kind of "quick in, quick out" short-term trades—it's more like building a position. The continued inflows into BlackRock's ETFs also confirm this.
But why aren't retail investors moving?
I don't think it's that I haven't seen it, it's that I got scared of being beaten in the first half of the year.
In the first half of the year, many people were deceived by "fake signals" and ended up cutting losses and exiting. Looking back now, behind every "bull recovery" in the first half of the year, it was actually retail investors pushing in and institutions moving forward. This round is exactly the opposite—institutions are moving in, retail investors are afraid.
What does this situation mean for me?
To be honest, I can't tell if this is a real turning point or just another trap. But one thing I am very clear about: institutions build positions much longer than retail investors. They don't care whether the current market is 65,000 or 60,000; they look two or three years from now. So institutions entering the market doesn't mean prices will rise immediately; in fact, during the process of building positions, they may even suppress and buy lower-priced shares.
I checked my position again today, didn't add or subtract, didn't want to move. Because messages are messages, operations are operations.
There will be no major moves until the FOMC results are released. If you want to bet on the right side, check the volume and match the volume before deciding to follow up on the right side; If it's hawkish, wait until it pulls back below 62,000 and then see if there are signs of stabilization.
To put it simply, big money is laying the groundwork, small money is waiting for signals, and I'm timid too, waiting for a truly personal entry rhythm. 😂Security incident + new global regulatory regulations: Wemix in South Korea was hit by a contract hacking attack, resulting in the theft of tokens worth $6.25 million. The project team tracked the stolen funds across the entire internet, causing the token to plummet by 16.65%, once again warning of the high risk of vulnerabilities in altcoin contracts, and that it is not advisable to heavily hold small-cap contract coins in the evening. The UK FCA has officially implemented a comprehensive crypto regulatory bill, with platform compliance applications open in September 2026 and full implementation in October 2027. Compliance costs are rising, and many small overseas crypto institutions are planning to merge and form alliances. Latest developments in Latin America: Brazil launches pilot for tokenization of cattle and sheep assets; El Salvador relies on BTC to popularize cross-border remittances in daily life, while emerging countries are gradually using crypto for everyday settlement.
Overall market style: Funds are further abandoning miscellaneous small-cap coins and clustering around BTC and ETH. Hacker risks + strict regulation from Europe and the US are squeezing the survival space of knockoffs, and the market is likely to continue a differentiated pattern of "mainstream resistance and knockoff surges."
Market influence
1. Long-term positive for Bitcoin, solidifying its real utility value Latin America is an emerging market with strong demand for cross-border transfers. Tokenization of physical assets and cross-border BTC settlement have made crypto no longer just hype, increasing real commercial demand. More developing countries around the world will adopt this model, gradually using BTC as a cross-border settlement tool to boost long-term Bitcoin demand and support the long-term cyclical bottom. Brazil itself is the largest crypto trading market in Latin America, and physical tokenization will boost local capital's willingness to participate in crypto, gradually bringing in regional incremental capital.
2. It's hard to drive a big rally in the short term. The implementation of this type of real economy is a slow variable and won't trigger a short-term speculative rally. It's not enough to immediately stimulate a short-term surge. Instead, it's about gradually building up fundamental confidence, supporting the bottom and big drop space in a volatile market, making it hard to create a fast, one-sided rally.
Indirect benefits for ETH: The RWA real-world asset tokenization track is highly dependent on Ethereum, while Brazil's physical token pilot has long-term positive narratives for the Ethereum ecosystem, as well as long-term valuations for DeFL and on-chain tokenization sectorsChinese memory chips are starting to directly challenge Micron? 🧵
On July 27, ChangXin Memory ($CXMT) officially debuted on the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market!!
ChangXin Memory currently ranks fourth globally in DRAM production capacity, behind only Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. $MU $SKHYNIX
With continuous AI investment, global DRAM demand has surged, and prices rose about sixfold over the past year, significantly boosting profits for storage giants like Micron.
More notably, ChangXin Memory's monthly production capacity is expected to exceed 300,000 wafers by the end of 2026, approaching Micron's level.
However, similar capacity does not mean the technology has caught up.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron currently produce DRAM using the “1c” process, while ChangXin Memory is still transitioning from “1a” to more advanced processes.
Industry consensus is that ChangXin Memory lags about two generations technologically and about three years in time. Due to less advanced processes, the storage capacity per wafer is lower, which is the biggest gap between it and the top three giants.
The real key going forward is whether ChangXin Memory can achieve process miniaturization relying on domestic equipment without advanced EUV lithography tools.
ASML's EUV equipment export restrictions to China are tightening, meaning ChangXin Memory must take a more difficult but strategically significant path of domestic production.
ChangXin Memory's advantage lies in having absorbed many technical personnel from European DRAM manufacturer Qimonda, possessing chip design and mass production experience.
This kind of "design to mass production" practical experience may help it continue to narrow the gap under the domestic equipment system.
Therefore, ChangXin Technology's listing does not mean Chinese memory chips have caught up with Micron.
But it means:
China is expanding DRAM capacity with huge capital while breaking through technological blockades using domestic equipment.
If ChangXin Memory ultimately succeeds in expanding production and catching up with advanced processes, the global DRAM industry landscape could be rewritten, and Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix will face greater competitive pressure.
The critical battle for Chinese memory chips has only just begun!
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 Micron's earnings report sparked discussions about storage cycles in the crypto market, with HBM revenue soaring 60% year-on-year and AI computing power demand directly driving up the price of high-bandwidth storage chips. However, in the cryptocurrency sector, decentralized storage projects $FIL and $AR are still hovering at the bottom. Filecoin's current price is around $4.5, having retraced more than 75% from its 2021 high, indicating extremely pessimistic market sentiment. However, the demand for data storage from AI inference is growing exponentially, with distributed storage adoption quietly increasing by 12% over the past three months. I observed that order visibility in the memory chip sector is warming, but $FIL's hashrate growth has stalled at around 19 EiB, indicating weak willingness among miners to expand. This divergence keeps me cautious; I can't judge a cycle reversal based solely on a single financial report. Ideally, you need to see storage fees rise by more than 10% and simultaneously restart computing power to confirm fundamental improvement. Currently, I choose to wait and see, testing with a small position, waiting for the price to break through key resistance levels and volume to exceed 1.5 times the 30-day average before considering adding more positions. No single point of data is enough to overturn the overall judgment; the best approach is often to wait with an empty position. $FIL #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 US-Iran pause in exchanges, crude oil plunged 7 points, the dollar weakened, liquidity expectations suddenly warmed up, stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin all rose, four consecutive gains, weekly closes steady. When $BTC $ETH $CL the US-Iran conflict temporarily eased, war risk premiums quickly reversed, oil prices plunged, the dollar weakened, and funds flowed into stocks, bonds, gold, and crypto markets. What is trading now is not a retreat from safe-haven demand but easing inflationary pressures and improving liquidity conditions. Both lines are moving simultaneously. More importantly, BTC closed higher for the fourth consecutive week. This is not luck As long as geopolitical tensions stop fluctuating and the dollar continues to weaken, this cross-asset resonance may keep providing upward momentum for risk markets. When all assets rise together, the real theme is often that liquidity is returning. Bitcoin has risen for four consecutive weeks, and the trend is getting stronger. Don't be scared off by a single bearish candle. The market where liquidity returns won't end in a day #ChangxinTechnologyListing, Global Storage Competition Adds Variables #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon Stabilize the AI narrative? PCE vs CPI，哪個更準確
昨晚 PCE 數據出來，反彈了
通脹數據是美聯儲決策的錨。
工資增速 4.5%。高於通脹 2.7%，實際工資轉正。
住房通脹 5.4%。滯後於房價 12 個月，明年才會明顯回落。
商品通脹 -0.3%。能源和耐用品價格回落，給通脹降溫做出貢獻。
我盯這些指標 6 年，勝率最高的是組合信號。
耐心和紀律比預測重要。
📌 為什麼要把 PCE 放進資產框架
PCE 不是一個直接的買賣按鈕，它更像流動性和利率預期的背景變量。核心服務通脹如果持續有黏性，降息節奏可能放慢；商品價格回落則可能給政策留下空間。兩者方向相反時，市場往往先交易預期，再等待後續數據確認。
🧭 我會怎樣跟蹤
第一，看核心 PCE 的三個月和六個月趨勢，不只看單月變化。第二，看工資、住房和能源是否出現同向拐點。第三，看美債收益率、美元和風險資產是否對數據作出一致反應。數據和價格不一致時，我會先降低確定性。
⚠️ 風險提醒
市場預期會在正式數據前反覆變化，任何降息概率都不是承諾。宏觀數據也可能被修正，不能把一個指標包裝成確定答案。
🎯 最後的執行框架
把宏觀判斷用來調整風險預算，而不是用來預測每一個短線高低點；保留流動性，等政策與市場價格真正共振。
我會把這個話題拆成三層來看。第一層是可以直接觀察的數據，先記錄數值、時間和方向，避免只截一張圖就下結論；第二層是市場如何反應，數據改善但價格不動，和數據轉弱而價格仍然上漲，含義完全不同；第三層才是自己的操作，先寫下最大可承受損失，再決定是否需要調整倉位。這個順序看起來慢，但能減少被單一標題帶著走。
對我來說，通脹分項、利率預期和美元流動性要放在同一張表裡對照。每次更新只改變有新證據的部分，不能因為一個數字變化就把整個判斷翻轉。若三個觀察方向彼此矛盾，我會把結論降級為「等待確認」，而不是硬湊出一個看多或看空的故事。市場中最容易被忽略的成本，是過早確定之後不願意承認假設已經失效。
執行上我會先用觀察倉測試，等成交量、價格和基本面至少有兩項同向，再考慮增加曝險；若波動擴大或流動性變薄，則先縮小倉位。任何回測、歷史案例或 KOL 觀點都只能用來建立假設，不能代替當下的風險檢查。這篇內容是我的研究筆記，不是保證收益的買賣指令。
我會在下一次更新時重新檢查四件事：消息是不是仍然有效、價格反應有沒有確認、流動性是否足以執行，以及原本的風險假設有沒有被破壞。若只是社交媒體熱度上升，卻看不到成交量或資金的配合，我會把它當作待觀察訊號；若數據方向改變，也會同步修改原先的劇本，而不是為了維持面子繼續持有。
這種做法的好處是把「看法」和「行動」分開。看法可以保留多個可能性，行動則必須有清楚的觸發條件。對短線交易，我會設定時間上限；對中長線配置，我會檢查基本面和資金成本。無論最後結果如何，都把進場理由、退出理由和實際滑點記錄下來，下一次才有真正可以改進的復盤材料。
如果資料來源之間互相矛盾，我會先標記衝突，等原始公告或下一個時間點確認，不用社交媒體的情緒替代證據。這也意味著有些時候最好的操作是空倉等待，因為沒有交易本身也是對不確定性的管理。The story of my first coin purchase three years ago
Back then, I didn't understand anything
Envious of others making money
So I just blindly followed and bought them
After buying, prices drop
Once it drops, they don't dare to look
Later, the coins in his account kept dwindling
I never touched it again
But this year is different
When I came back
I found that the market had completely changed
BTC There is an ETF
On-chain derivatives monthly trading volume has reached 470 billion
Even Nokia's dividends can be collected on-chain
Binance launched bStocks
Dividends are paid directly in tokens
Then guess what
When I saw this news,
The first reaction was not surprise
Instead, he felt that way
This world changes so fast
What was I most afraid of three years ago?
It was the exchange running away
It's that on-chain assets aren't worth much
And now?
A company of Nokia's caliber
Dividends are all distributed on the chain
Isn't this exactly the kind of thing we fantasized about three years ago?
RWA's monthly trading volume is 470 billion
The stablecoin market cap is close to 256 billion
This bull market is not driven purely by sentiment
Instead, it is built on solid infrastructure
So my judgment is
No matter what the FOMC moves this week
Regardless of BTC's short-term price fluctuations
The improvement of infrastructure is irreversible
Every pullback
All of these are giving you a chance to buy infrastructure at a discount
Note
It's a discount
It's not about taking over
Let's also chat about a few trending topics to see if any of them are worth following:
#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables
Changxin's first-day turnover was 130 billion yuan, with a 61% turnover rate—a historic rally on the STAR Market of A-shares. The Three Kingdoms Romance of the Storage Track is beginning to unfold. BTC whales crossing over to short Changxin indicate that crypto funds are showing growing interest in traditional technology.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower
Geopolitical risk sentiment is fading, oil prices have fallen, and capital has flowed back into risk assets. Although Iran intercepted six ships, the overall direction of easing tensions remains unchanged. BTC has emerged from geopolitical panic and is paying more attention to the FOMC and earnings reports this week.
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
The crypto regulatory framework will have to wait until the next Congress. In the short term, this suppresses market sentiment, but in the long run, the direction of crypto compliance will not change. Aave's founder said the bill is in its final stage and the game is still ongoing.
#RWA #证券代币化From yesterday to today, I experienced the most thrilling 12 hours of my life
It's not that my account is highly volatile
I was watching Korean and A-share stocks
Changxin Technology recorded 130 billion yuan in turnover on its first day of listing
On the Korean side
Goldman Sachs came out and said something very heartfelt
The positive side of AI orders
It can't withstand the pressure of deleveraging
South Korean retail investors are increasing their positions against the trend
But institutional funds are being withdrawn
Then guess what
After saying this,
I'll check the K-line charts of Korean stocks again
Indeed, the trend looks very bad
KOSPI has been falling recently
SK Hynix, the most core AI beneficiary
Also fluctuating at high levels
Logically, the storage giants should have landed a major order from Anthropic
Korean stocks should rise
But why can't prices rise?
Goldman Sachs refers to deleveraging pressure
Actually, it's a problem of Korean household debt
Koreans are too fond of leverage
Especially young people in the stock market
Once economic expectations weaken
Banks tighten lending
The first wave of clearing was leveraged funds
This is exactly the same logic as the crypto market
BTC rose from 58K to 65K
Many people think it's a great return
Leverage it to the max, and charge in
However, ETFs saw outflows of 240 million yuan for two consecutive days
This shows that the organization is slowly withdrawing
Retail investors are increasing their positions against the trend
It's exactly the same as the Korean stock market
So my judgment is
The current market is the same as before in Korean stocks
Structurally, it is fragile
It's not that the fundamentals are bad
There are too many people leveraging their power
Once liquidity tightens
The pullback will be very strong
Don't jump in when everyone is already leveraging their hands
We paid 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD according to the contract, and the funds were first transferred to the so-called "scammer's" wallet. Coincidentally, Gate Alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens, and the platform refused to disclose the complete listing process; Subsequently, the wallet transfers assets into Gate Alpha for airdrops.
On-chain hash records are displayed on the chain, making the truth clear at a glance.
Only after the project has paid the full fees and successfully completed the launch will the platform inform us that the person we connected with throughout the process is not an internal Gate employee.
The successful listing of the project on Gate Exchange is already a done deal. This explanation is hard to reconcile and seriously damages Gate's own credibility. We look forward to the official clear and direct response to all doubts.I really would be grateful
Every time it comes to big company earnings week,
I was especially anxious
Not because I bought some tech stocks myself
It's because of the results of these financial reports
It directly determines whether BTC will rise or fall next week
Last week, Google and Tesla handed over their papers first
This week, it's Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon
Then guess what
ETH rose 4.55% today
BTC rose by 1. 85%
The timing and strength of this rebound
This coincides with the tech giant's earnings expectations
It can't be a coincidence
Last week, Google's performance was actually average
But market sentiment is positive
Prices still rise
Tesla's financial report is even more mysterious
Revenue slightly increased but profits shrank
As a result, the stock price even rose
This shows that the current market is not about numbers
It's about the narrative
If Meta's capital expenditure guidance continues to be raised,
The AI hardware sector will continue to rise
If Microsoft's cloud growth can still hold up,
The entire AI narrative is stable
The crypto market is now increasingly correlated with tech stocks
In the past, people said BTC was digital gold
It has nothing to do with US stocks
But look at these past six months
The trends of BTC and the Nasdaq
They almost walked side by side
So my judgment is
The results of this earnings week
will determine whether BTC can hold above 67K in the short term
If Microsoft and Meta deliver a solid answer,
BTC has the momentum to keep surging
But if it falls short of expectations,
AI narratives have been exposed
Crypto will also suffer
Sit tight this week, hold on
I glanced at today's news page and have a few points I want to mention电动车不要了，回本了直接换特斯拉
这个月账户回血了不少
我就开始琢磨
要是这波BTC冲到70K
我就直接奖励自己一辆车
60K的时候觉得65K是天花板
现在65K了又开始想70K
人的贪欲真的是没有尽头的
但今天让我停下来认真想的
不是大饼
而是一个比特币巨鲸的操作
一个之前只做BTC的老玩家
今天第一次跨界
开了353万美元的长鑫科技空单
然后你猜怎么着
长鑫今天成交1300亿
换手61%
A股科创板首日就干到这个级别
这个空单大概率是亏的
但我觉得有意思的不是他亏不亏
而是为什么一个比特币巨鲸
会出手做A股的空单
说明传统科技股和加密市场之间的资金流动
比我们想象的要密切得多
软银给OpenAI搞了400亿的贷款
追加21家银行
英伟达给OpenAI2500亿担保
这些人都在同一张牌桌上
BTC巨鲸也坐到了A股牌桌
所有人都开始跨市场押注
所以我的判断是
跨市场套利的窗口正在打开
科技股和加密的同涨同跌会越来越频繁
想做长线的
不用在两个市场之间来回切
挑一个方向拿住就行了
最后聊聊今天的市场热点，几个方向值得The current SPCX price has not fully priced in the tail risk of a "second bottom."
Has the market underestimated the likelihood of SPCX forming a true bottom near $80?
- Original article cites key fact: SPCX has been continuously pulling back from its all-time high of $228, hitting a low of $109 last Saturday, and is currently in a downward channel. Historical cases refer to Tesla's post-IPO trend: on the first day of listing, the price rose from $30 to $40, then dropped to $20, finally bottoming near $15, and only after a long period did the main rally begin.
- Priced Section: The current $109 price already reflects a "sharp pullback from the high," indicating that bearish momentum has been released quite well. The market is currently pricing in a "technical rebound after short-term overselling," with some bottom-fishing funds entering based on the logic that "prices have been halved."
- Unpriced variables: First, the Tesla case reveals a "second bottoming" pattern—after the initial rebound, it is often accompanied by a deeper decline, possibly targeting the $80 range. Second, SPCX's liquidity structure: If sustained buy orders are lacking support during the rebound, the price may encounter strong resistance in the $150-$170 area before retesting the low. Third, market sentiment has not yet shifted from "panic selling" to "confident bottom support." The current rebound is more likely to be short covering rather than active position-building.
- Upward path and conditions: If SPCX can stabilize in the $120-$130 range with increased volume and closes above the 20-day moving average for three consecutive trading days, a structural rebound may be initiated, targeting $180-$200. The condition is that BTC stabilizes simultaneously and overall risk appetite rebounds.
- Bearish risk and failure conditions: If the price rebounds to around $150 and then quickly shrinks on volume and falls below the previous low of $109, a chain stop is likely to be triggered, accelerating the drop toward $80. The breakdown condition is a clear volume long bullish candlestick breaking above $180, accompanied by a continuous increase in the number of active on-chain addresses.
- Key risks and validation signals: The biggest tail risk currently is "rebound induced by bulls"—prices briefly rebound and then quickly plunged, swallowing up bottom-fishing funds. The signal to verify is to observe changes in trading volume during the rebound: if volume shrinks on the rise and volume increases on the downtrend, it indicates insufficient bullish momentum and caution is warranted for a second bottoming out.
A mature observation: SPCX's core trading opportunity lies not at the current price level, but in whether a clear bottom structure has formed in the $80-$100 range. Before this, any rebound should be seen as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. Waiting for signals of volume stabilization is more in line with the risk-reward ratio than chasing rallies. The main risk is that the price will fall directly below $80, at which point the bottom will move down to around $60.
$SPCX #市场结构 #尾部风险#Gate.io Temp Worker
Gate's official team continues to claim that Robin, who connects with our ALD community, is an impersonator and a scammer. Here are several core questions that cannot be avoided. Please answer them directly:
1. If Robin is merely an external scammer and not a Gate staff member, an unauthorized impostor, what right does he have to complete the full Gate Alpha listing process and successfully list ALD tokens on the platform?
Gate listing uses an internal multi-layer approval mechanism, making it impossible for outsiders to operate on their own. If outsiders can casually impersonate employees to complete token listings, does this prove that Gate's internal permission management has completely gone out of control, allowing anyone to impersonate staff and lead project listings?
2. We will pay the USDT and ALD corresponding to the listed currency in full according to the matchmaker's requirements. If Robin is considered personal fraud, why did the scammer guide us to transfer funds that ultimately flow into the Gate system, and why did the token launch as scheduled?
Ordinary people commit fraud with the goal of embezzling funds without authorization; Moreover, the successful listing of tokens after this settlement is completely inconsistent with the logic of ordinary scammers.
3. Gate cannot simply use the phrase "the intermediary is a scammer" to unilaterally tear up the token listing agreement reached by both parties.
The successful launch of the token on Gate Alpha is an objective established fact; trading behavior and fulfillment results are real. They cannot enjoy the benefits paid by the project party and refuse to fulfill all agreed obligations on the grounds of "personnel impersonation."
4. We hope Gate will publicly disclose the complete approval process for the ALD launch of Gate Alpha and the internal handling staff.
If Robin has no official authorization, please explain: How did an external impersonator bypass all internal risk controls and approvals to complete the entire listing process? Does this mean there is a major vulnerability in Gate Alpha's listing channel, and all project teams face the risk of being lured by fake personnel?US: High-end VRAM is stuck in China! Changxin: Thanks for the invitation, we made 50 billion in half a year, and today we are listing!
At the opening of trading on July 27, a number that made many people grit their eyes popped up on the electronic screen of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market. The issue price was 8.66 yuan, soaring directly to around 49.50 yuan, a more than quadrupling increase. Its market value once surpassed 3.3 trillion yuan, quickly overtaking Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and taking the top spot in A-share market value.
A few years ago, when Wall Street talked about this storage factory from Hefei, it was still as if "this company probably won't last for a few years." Around this listing, a somewhat playful saying circulates in the market: the US has tightly welded the door to high-end VRAM, while Changxin's "Thank you for the invitation" means it will bring in 50 billion yuan in half a year, and the clock has already rung. Let's first look at how much I've actually earned in the past six months.
Changxin's disclosed data for the first half of 2026 is expected to be between 110 billion and 120 billion yuan in revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders between 50 billion and 57 billion yuan. By the end of 2025, the company still had about 36.65 billion yuan in accumulated unrecovered losses on its books.
The money earned in half a year filled the hole burned in pursuit of technology over the past ten years in one go, leaving a large surplus. The first quarter data was even more impressive: revenue was 50.8 billion yuan, up 719% year-on-year, and net profit was 33 billion yuan, up over 1200% year-on-year.
Spread over daily, the income is rising to 270 million. This kind of profitability speed has never existed before in China's semiconductor industry. Here's the question: where did this money come from?
The answer lies within the wave of AI. NVIDIA's hash cards have been sold from the H100 all the way to the B200, and the supporting HBM high-bandwidth memory is in high demand.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—three giants controlling over 90% of global DRAM capacity—found that HBM unit prices were high and profits were substantial, so they relocated their valuable wafer production lines to HBM on a large scale. One move and something went wrong.
Ordinary DDR4 and DDR5 memory modules—which are used daily in mobile phone and computer servers—have become extremely tight globally. Prices are soaring in line with the trend—TrendForce data shows that DRAM contract prices will rise over 75% year-on-year in Q4 2025, and nearly double in Q1 2026.
The original plan of the U.S. side was to block layer by layer of advanced equipment, materials, and processes related to HBM, preventing Changxin from entering the high-end track. But the high-end segment couldn't break in. Looking back, the regular DRAM market was given up by the Big Three on their own, and Changxin took over.
Today, it accounts for about 8% of the global DRAM market, ranking fourth, ahead of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Just talking about market trends isn't enough; you also need to look at the details in the accounting books.
Chip manufacturing is a heavy-asset business; for a 12-inch wafer fab, investing in equipment and building cleanrooms often involves tens of billions of dollars. According to accounting standards, these devices must be depreciated within a few years. During the years when depreciation was most aggressive, even if chips sold like crazy, the company still lost money on paper.
Changxin has been stuck in this mud pit for the past few years. In 2025 alone, equipment depreciation alone consumed 24.68 billion yuan.
Once the most expensive batch of equipment is almost discounted and yield rises again, the cost per chip drops to a very low level. At this point, the storage price surge cycle naturally triggers profits like opening the floodgates to release liquid.
Next, let's look at the technical layer. Changxin's production line was built entirely without EUV lithography machines.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron use EUV one-time molding for the most advanced circuit layers, while Changxin can only rely on existing DUV lithography machines for multiple exposures—repeatedly aligning, masking, and etching on the same silicon wafer, layering fine patterns layer by layer. This road involves many processes, high initial scrap rates, and a tough yield rate, but if you succeed, you still get through.
Currently, Changxin is expanding production capacity at several bases in Hefei and Beijing. A new cleanroom can be built in about 12 months, which in the industry generally takes 21 to 24 months. According to the plan, the company's monthly production capacity is approaching 350,000 wafers by the end of this year, already close to Micron's scale.
The pre-IPO shareholder list is also quite noteworthy. Alibaba holds 3.85% through related entities, making it one of the largest single investors in the final round of capital increase; Tencent holds 1.5%, and Midea and Hubei Xiaomi are also on the list.
Behind these names lies an entire domestic upstream and downstream chain: upstream are supplied by equipment and material manufacturers such as North Huachuang, AMEC, Tuojing, and Anji; Downstream clients include Alibaba Cloud, ByteDance, Tencent, Lenovo, Xiaomi, Transsion, Honor, OPPO, vivo, and more. A more dramatic episode deserves a special mention.
According to reports from the Financial Times and South China Morning Post, amid soaring international component prices, Apple is lobbying Washington to obtain regulatory approval to purchase memory from Changxin. What the US policy once wanted to block is now even the largest consumer electronics company wants to buy it.
The power in the supply chain does not follow policy commands, but only on cost and delivery time. Though lively, the calm voices were present as well.
Some analysts bluntly stated that this storage super boom cycle is already close to its short-term peak, and the current levels of gross and net margins are unsustainable and will eventually return to industry norms in the future. Changxin's real test is whether it can withstand price drops.
This time, Zhu Yiming had placed a heavy shackle on himself. As Chairman of Changxin, he promised to hold one share for the first ten years after listing, and starting from the eleventh year, he would reduce his holdings by up to 20% of the remaining locked shares at the end of the previous year each year.
This kind of practice of tying oneself and the company for twenty years is rare in the A-share market. Looking back at the weight of this event, the most interesting part isn't how much market value was pushed up, but how the script unfolds.
The U.S. hopes to use wave after wave of blockades to keep China's storage industry at the bottom end, but in reality, it has untied domestic equipment, materials, and terminal manufacturers into a single rope, forcing a crack from the three giants' positions that have held their place for twenty years. The market has its ups and downs, and the cycle will eventually turn the page, but once the industry landscape is rewritten, it's hard to reverse. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision early Thursday morning.
This FOMC meeting is interesting, with several variables moving simultaneously. After the ceasefire expectations between the US and Iran emerged, oil prices dropped sharply. The energy component, which had been suppressing the inflation narrative last week, suddenly eased. Initial jobless claims were 187,000, below expectations, indicating the labor market is still holding up. These two data points combined actually give the Fed more room to maneuver, but that doesn't mean they will use it.
Powell's recent logic is clear: good data does not equal rate cuts; it's about the trend. One week of data improvement does not constitute a trend, and he won't surprise the market with a rate cut just because oil prices fell this time.
I believe the Fed will most likely hold steady this time, but the wording will loosen. If the statement includes phrases about easing inflation pressures or if the dot plot shows some members raising the number of rate cuts expected this year, that would be the real signal. The market is currently pricing in rate cuts starting in September; this FOMC's role is to confirm or deny that expectation, not to act directly.
In the same week, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon earnings reports will be released. Capital expenditure guidance is the real market focus. If tech giants collectively raise AI infrastructure spending, the computing power narrative gains another leg, which could boost crypto and chip sectors more directly than the FOMC's statements.
FTX's fifth round of $900 million creditor payouts will start on July 31, overlapping closely with the FOMC timing. Historically, after FTX payouts land, there is a short-term liquidity improvement, and the crypto market has reacted similarly before.
$BTC has reclaimed 65K, and the fear and greed index has returned to 30. Sentiment is recovering but hasn't reached the greed zone yet. This is not a time to chase highs but a time to wait for confirmation.
Before 2:00 AM Thursday, the direction is unclear. Wait for the statement wording, Powell's press conference, and Microsoft and Meta earnings. These catalysts all fall in the same week, so volatility is certain, but direction depends on the data.
I am not adding positions here; I will wait for Thursday's results.
This is not investment advice.#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables: price increase growth has peaked, but the upward cycle is not yet over. Which stage is the supercycle in?
The memory chip industry is currently in the "high-level slow rise convergence phase" of an AI-driven super upcycle: price increase growth has clearly peaked, but the cycle is not yet over. This is the most accurate diagnosis of the industry's state in July 2026.
Q1 2026 is the most frenzied "explosion period" of this cycle—DRAM contract prices surged 90%-95% quarter-on-quarter, NAND Flash increased 55%-60%. But starting from Q2, the gains quickly receded: DRAM dropped to 58%-63%, NAND 70%-75%. By Q3, mainstream institutions predict DRAM gains will narrow further to 13%-18%, and NAND to 10%-15%.
"The peak of rate of change" has passed—this is Morgan Stanley's core assessment. But the peak has passed does not mean the cycle is over; the industry as a whole is still on an upward trajectory, only switching from a "100-meter sprint" to a "marathon jog."
External factor: AI demand is the only engine
This cycle is not driven by traditional consumer electronics inventory replenishment, but by the exclusive demand for AI computing power. An AI server uses 8-10 times more DRAM than a regular server, while high-bandwidth memory (HBM) consumes 3-4 times more resources than standard DDR5.
The three major OEMs (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) have allocated over 70% of their new capacity to HBM/server-grade storage, significantly squeezing the supply of general-purpose storage.
Internal cause: The real key issue is the "blood loss" in consumer electronics
External causes (explosive AI demand) are obvious and visible to everyone. But what truly determines whether the industry can "recover" is the internal structural problem—the continued weakness in consumer electronics.
In 2026, smartphone production is expected to decline by 15%-20% year-on-year, and laptop shipments will decrease by about 10%. Consumers have reached their limit in bearing the price increase of memory chips, with customers strongly resisting nearly 30% of DRAM price increases. The chain of price increases is breaking down: PC dealers report that the price of whole devices has risen by more than 5,000 yuan, and customer flow has clearly shifted toward lower price segments.
This is why the growth rate of price increases will narrow—not because AI demand has weakened, but because the consumer side, this "big eater," can no longer sustain itself.
Optimistic scenario (higher probability)
Supported by resilient AI demand, the upward cycle will continue at least until the end of 2027 through 2028. Currently, South Korea's two storage giants (Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix) have signed five-year long-term supply cooperation intentions with customers such as Nvidia, totaling over $950 billion. UBS expects the enhanced long-term agreement to cover 30%-40% of industry output.
These long-term contracts act like "price lock-in insurance," effectively smoothing traditional cyclical fluctuations. UBS forecasts that in 2027, demand for memory chips will grow by 36.2%, significantly exceeding the 19.3% supply growth rate, with the supply-demand gap widening from -8.1% in 2026 to -13.6%.
Conclusion: The industry will not experience a cliff-like decline, but subsequent gains will continue to narrow, and the Q1-level surges will not repeat.
Pessimistic scenario (risk alert needed)
Three core risks may cause the cycle to shift ahead of schedule:
Cloud providers face pressure to realize ROI on AI investments: The four major North American cloud providers will have combined capital expenditures of $725 billion by 2026. If enterprise AI investment returns are delayed, the contraction in capital expenditure will directly impact storage demand
Backlash from capacity release: Samsung, SK Hynix, and others will gradually release large-scale expansion plans in 2027-2028, with the NAND Flash supply-demand gap expected to turn positive by 2027
Technology Substitution Suppresses Demand: Google and others have developed "memory compression" technology that can reduce the memory required for AI computing to up to one-sixth, potentially significantly weakening long-term storage demand
The most critical judgment
This is not a structural recession, but a phased adjustment. The industry's investment logic has shifted from "making money from price increases" to "making money from demand certainty and profit duration." Manufacturers with AI-related product layouts and steady capacity expansion paces (such as SK Hynix and Micron) will be better able to weather cyclical fluctuations; Manufacturers highly dependent on the consumer electronics market face even greater cyclical pressure.
When the consumer electronics market stabilizes is the true signal of a turning point in this cycle. $SNDK $SKHYNIX This week's focus:
On July 31, there will be a massive options settlement, with Bitcoin settling nearly $10 billion, far exceeding the quarterly and annual settlements. This signal deserves our attention, indicating that there may be significant volatility this week, with the maximum pain point at 64000. According to historical patterns, such a large-scale monthly options settlement usually does not result in a one-sided trend but oscillates around the maximum pain point. Pay close attention to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision in the early hours of the 30th, which will most likely cause a sharp jump and drop before finally returning to a normal price trend. Those with leverage should fasten their seatbelts and beware of the awkward situation where you wake up to find the price unchanged but your position gone. #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 $BTC The most critical event this week is the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
The market consensus is to hold steady, keeping the range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Interestingly, the probability that traders assign to a rate hike has climbed from 12% a week ago to 38%. All 76 economists unanimously say no change, but traders feel it's not that certain—this kind of divergence is rare.
The reason is simple: since Waller took charge, he doesn't like giving forward guidance, speaks little, and creates uncertainty. Oil prices recently surged past 100 and then dropped, keeping the inflation tension high.
I see $BTC hovering around 65,000, and $ETH bounced more than four points today; the market is clearly waiting for a signal. At times like this, don't max out your leverage betting on direction. Whatever the Fed says will be more reliable than guessing a thousand times now. Just watch and wait for the verdict on Wednesday.
#FederalReserve #Review #BTC [Graphic Observation | Oil Price Transmission] At 17:47 Beijing time, WTI was $81.6870 (-8.41%), Brent was $85.0400 (-8.72%), with a price difference of about $3.35 per barrel.
Observation perspective: Here, we don't just look at oil price fluctuations, but also at their transmission to inflation expectations, dollar liquidity, and risk asset valuations. If oil prices rise but the US dollar strengthens in tandem, crypto assets may actually come under pressure.
Background of Golden October: Why have the US dollar, crude oil, and gold recently seen a "rare simultaneous rise"? | Golden Ten Futures Heatmap—Breaking Traditional Logic! With the US dollar strengthening, gold and crude oil should come under pressure to decline. But in reality, why have the US dollar, crude oil, and gold recently seen a "rare simultaneous rise"? A picture to illustrate.
Verification point: WTI holds above the 20-day moving average and the spread is stable, consolidating within a range; If the spread widens and falls back below the moving average, demand pressure will be priced in again.
Risk warning: If OPEC+ caliber, inventory, or geopolitical events exceed expectations, the above transmission observations may need to be reassessed. For market observation purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.First, let's talk about some signals in today's market.
Just minutes before the news of the easing Middle East situation was announced, a mysterious trader precisely placed a massive $7 billion short position in the crude oil market. Minutes later, oil prices plummeted 8%, while Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded accordingly, precisely hitting the core support zone between 63,000 and 64,000. The accuracy of this timing is hard to explain as mere coincidence.
But don't rush to be bullish, because an ultimate bear market bottom signal that has never failed in history has just appeared.
Looking back, every bottom of Bitcoin's bear markets has been accompanied by the collapse and bankruptcy of major exchanges—without exception. In the past week alone, several exchanges have consecutively shut down and exited. This historical pattern confirms that we have officially entered the final liquidation phase of this bear market.
But why warn about traps? There are two reasons.
First, the signal of a sharp drop in the US stock market has not yet appeared. Historically, every true Bitcoin bull market launch requires seeing at least a 25% major pullback in the S&P 500, like the flash crash during the 2020 pandemic and the big drop in 2022. This signal has not yet flashed, so Bitcoin is likely to need to hit a deeper low.
Second, derivatives liquidity is extremely imbalanced. This rebound is mainly caused by massive short covering—after shorts are cleared, the liquidity below far exceeds that above, and there is a very high risk that market makers will sweep and liquidate orders downward.
Regarding the ultimate bottom, the CVDD indicator currently precisely sits near 47,000, with a time window between the end of Q3 and Q4 this year. The deeper the price falls, the more aggressively I will build positions, saving the heaviest bullets for the lowest point.
Finally, about Ethereum. This time, Ethereum's price is falling, but network transaction volume and actual usage continue to soar, which is a rare bullish divergence in history. Once ETH/BTC breaks the long-term downtrend on the weekly chart confirming a higher high, Ethereum will experience an extremely powerful breakout.
Short-term traps are everywhere, but the long-term bottom is near. Control your impulses and wait for that final drop.
If you find this useful, remember to like and follow Last Week's Weekly Review (7/20 Mon - 7/26 Sun)
BTC: Weekly analysis judged the weekly candlestick as a long lower shadow + short upper shadow doji-like shape (bulls slightly dominant), three weeks of volume contraction with price increase, the $58,000 strong support not broken, the $65,000 "reversal" judged as false, not the best entry timing.
Actual performance: Week opened at $64,731.5 → closed at $65,382.8, up +1.01%, weekly high $66,968.5 (7/21), weekly low $63,724.1 (7/24). The weekly candlestick pattern operated within the preset framework—on Tuesday, price surged to $66,968.5 near the $67,000 resistance zone then pulled back; on Friday, it touched $63,724.1 but the $58,000 strong support was never broken; on Sunday, it rebounded and closed above $65K. The $65,000 "reversal" false signal judgment was accurate, the strong support was intact, and the range-bound pattern fully aligned with the weekly analysis direction. ✅
Overall trend: Weekly analysis judged the market as range-bound, $58,000 strong support valid, $65,000 "reversal" judged false, currently not the best bottom-fishing timing (Holder Ratio/NUPL/CBBI three major bottom indicators have not reached the green zone).
Actual BTC +1.01% range-bound, the $58,000 strong support lowest this week was $63,724.1 and was never breached, the $65,000 "reversal" false signal judgment passed live market test, overall direction fully consistent with the weekly analysis. ✅
Accuracy: High. All three core judgments—weekly candlestick pattern, $58,000 strong support, and $65,000 non-reversal—hit the mark. The rebound to the $67,000 resistance zone followed by a pullback and recovery perfectly matches the "no action within range-bound" framework!Storj files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, token drops 16% Storj – a decentralized data storage project on the blockchain platform – has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US, while affirming that network operations will continue as usual. Notably, the company proposes converting token holders' rights into equity in the business after restructuring – a model quite rare in crypto-related bankruptcies. In my opinion, this event cTo get straight to the point: this ETH rebound feels more like "repricing driven by new positions," not a runaway one-sided long chase. Prices have momentum, but contract positions expand faster than prices; Whether it can go far depends on whether the spot can continue to hold, not how attractive the next candlestick is. As of 17:00 on July 27 (Beijing time), during the observation window from 05:01 to 17:01 for this round, Binance ETH/USDT rose from about $1,914.42 to $1,960.48, an increase of about 2.41%; OKX rose from about $1,914.83 to around $1,958 during the same period, showing consistent direction. Active buying on Binance spot accounts for about 53.3%, with buyers slightly dominant, but not overwhelmingly strong. What's even more worth watching is the position. OKX's ETH contract open interest size rose from about $1.741 billion at 05:00 to $1.827 billion at 16:00, an increase of about 4.9%, significantly outpacing the price. Binance's open interest, measured by ETH amount, increased by about 1.45% over the same period, and the nominal size in USD grew by about 4.06%. Here, it's important to clarify: part of the growth in the dollar comes from ETH's own rise and cannot be entirely counted as new capital; However, coin-denominated OI is also increasing, indicating this is not just short covering. Interestingly, while leverage increased, the bulls did not become more even. OThe Federal Reserve's rate decision is on Wednesday. Here's my judgment first: the interest rate will most likely remain at 3.50%—3.75%, but the press conference won't make the market feel at ease. Warsh is very likely to keep the possibility of a rate hike in September.
Currently, the market gives about a 64% probability of maintaining the rate this time, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike has risen to 36%. Core inflation cooled down in June, which temporarily does not support an immediate rate hike; however, rising oil prices and the 10-year US Treasury yield climbing near 4.7% prevent the Fed from prematurely declaring victory.
A more critical point: Q2 GDP and PCE will only be released on Thursday after the rate decision. The necessity for the Fed to hike rates directly without these two core data points is not high. So I tend to maintain the rate first and then decide whether to act in September based on inflation and employment.
US stocks may initially rally due to "no rate hike," then it depends on how Warsh talks about oil prices. If he believes energy price increases will continue to transmit to service inflation, the 10-year Treasury yield will rise further, and tech stocks are likely to spike and then fall back; if he emphasizes that core inflation is declining, the Nasdaq will get a breather, and the rebound strength of high-valuation tech stocks will be greater.
BTC is currently around $65,500, and $68,000 is the toughest level to break in this rebound. Maintaining the rate while downplaying a September hike gives BTC a chance to reach $68,000 or even $70,000; retaining the rate hike wording means $64,000 will most likely be tested again, and if weaker, $62,000 could be seen.
My forecast is: no rate hike, a hawkish-leaning press conference, with the market rising first then fluctuating. Wednesday's rate decision will only ignite the market; the subsequently released GDP and PCE will determine how far this rally can go. The US decision is on Wednesday, corresponding to 2 AM Thursday domestic time, with the press conference at 2:30 AM.5. Trading Hot Topic Observation: Why is the current market trending a new main theme every day, while ordinary people always drop right after chasing in?
The recent market is especially easy to create the illusion that money is being made everywhere.
Recently, the chip industry was the strongest, with funds chasing Micron and Nvidia; Subsequently, SpaceX's IPO attracted attention; Now, on its first day of listing, Changxin Memory's stock price surged by more than 500%. Meanwhile, rapid rotation continues among semiconductors, gold, military, and AI applications. (Reuters)
But when it comes to actual competition, many people find themselves always a step behind.
Seeing chip prices rise, buying in led to sector adjustments;
Seeing the war escalate, they chased energy stocks, and oil prices suddenly fell 4% the next day;
Seeing BTC break through $65,000, just as it was about to go fully invested, the price returned to the range.
The reason isn't necessarily poor judgment, but rather that capital is becoming increasingly short-term.
A large number of retail investors, quantitative funds, and short-term traders are concentrated in a handful of popular stocks. Once a piece of news appears, funds quickly flood in; Once the news spreads across the internet, the earliest participants have already started searching for the next hot topic. Reuters also pointed out that more and more "fast money" is driving funds to quickly switch from one hot trade to another, making the relationship between price and fundamentals even more confusing. (Reuters)
The most dangerous thing about this market isn't the absence of opportunities, but the fact that there seem to be too many opportunities.
It's easy for ordinary people to hold chips, AI, BTC, gold, and energy all at once, superficially diversifying, but in reality, all their purchases are the most congested trading in recent times.
Once risk appetite declines, these assets may be sold off together.
To deal with this market, I prefer to divide trading into two categories:
For main themes supported by fundamentals, you can wait for pullbacks and then gradually build positions;
Purely news-driven hotspots, only small positions are made, and exit positions are determined in advance.
If you enter after seeing a trending topic, your win rate usually drops significantly.
In short:
The biggest risk in the market now is not missing hot spots, but treating every hot spot as a long-term opportunity. The market changes its star every day, but the account can't withstand a daily chase.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR. $BTC $ETH $DOGE [Whales Bet on Maintaining Interest Rates, but BTC and ETH Remain Cautious in Short-Term Volatility]
This "Yes" large order indicates someone is betting that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates, but the market has not formed a truly unanimous optimism. Although Polymarket's probability of "no rate hike" remains at 80%, it has dropped by 13 percentage points during the week, indicating that as the meeting approaches, funds are repricing inflation and policy risks.
PPP detected an address with a historical win rate marked at 78% buying over 175,000 "no rate hike" contracts at an average price of 75.5 cents, investing about $139,000. Meanwhile, CME's "FedWatch" tool gives only a 66.3% probability of maintaining the current interest rate, showing a significant gap with the prediction market.
This gap is the key point. The prediction market pricing "no rate hike" higher means some funds are willing to pay a premium for no further policy tightening; however, the continuous decline in probability also shows the market does not believe the meeting outcome will necessarily be positive for risk assets. Maintaining the current rate only avoids a worse outcome and does not mean liquidity will immediately loosen.
The decision, statement wording, and subsequent path expectations in the early hours of July 30 Beijing time must be considered together. If there is no rate hike and the market's expectations for future policy improve, BTC and ETH may see a restoration of risk appetite; if the rate is just maintained with signals reinforcing a longer stay at high rates, the earlier rebound is still likely to become a window for profit-taking after a rally.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are at your own risk. $LAB The price has dropped again, which is honestly a bit hard to hold on. How can this coin drop so much? It has been falling for a very, very long time. If we look at $BEAT's trend, this price level should be the bottom. Back in February this year, $BEAT dropped from several yuan to about the same price as $LAB now. If $BEAT's future trend continues, $LAB may continue to rise over the next month. —————————————————— Let's analyze its contract data. It can be seen that this time, the long-short ratio of $LAB's contract changes relatively quickly. Combined with changes in its open interest, we can infer that currently, relatively few people in the market believe it can continue to plummet. Currently, the sentiment is that most people believe it is consolidating sideways or will rebound. —————————————————— I believe $LAB will rise step by step next month, and I don't think it will crash again. There is no reason for further plunge. I still want to share my previous logic: the current market isn't doing well, so it's relatively difficult to pull back a new demon coin. Therefore, market makers tend to cherish coins that are now Chengyao, somewhat like the shells of listed companies in the past. Some say, isn't listing on an exchange basically like already having a shell? You can't say that—listing on an exchange is not very difficult for many project teams. The most difficult part is,There's an interesting phenomenon in the recent market: Bitcoin inscriptions are booming, and various new projects on Layer 2 networks are taking turns performing. The profit-making effect in the BTC ecosystem is spreading out like ripples. And the first to receive this wave of benefits were not those flashy new public chains, but two familiar faces that many have almost forgotten—$LTC (Litecoin) and $BCH (BitCash). These two guys are truly 'living fossils' in the crypto world. One is called "BitGold, Light Silver," and the other is a direct lineage derived from a hard fork of Bitcoin. In terms of lineage, it is purer than 99% of altcoins on the market. But for a long time, their prices have been flat like an electrocardiogram turning into a straight line, constantly sideways and crushed by various new narratives. But recently, the two brothers suddenly rebounded in volume simultaneously, forcibly climbing off the list of "washed-up stars." Why did the capital suddenly think of these two "antiques"? Simply put, the Bitcoin ecosystem has too much money and is starting to spill over. New things like inscriptions, BRC-20, and Layer 2 are hot but also have high entry barriers and risks. A group of profitable funds, or those who missed out and didn't dare chase highs, will instinctively look for those "same source but cheap" assets to catch up on the rally. At this point, LTC and BCH came into view—after all, one is a Bitcoin code clone, the other is Bitcoin's own son, sharing the same technical roots and solid community consensus. These two established mainstream brands have an unmatched advantage that countercoins can't match: ample liquidity, stable consensus, and extremely low risk of a collapse. Buy$ETH just confirmed it. Structural breakout is in. 🚨 The market’s been waiting on this for months. Here’s how I see it playing out: 1. Downtrend broken + retest done ✅ 2. Now we’re chopping in the green demand zone, stacking 3. First target: $2,200 – $2,400 4. Next: impulse move toward $3,000 5. Then: parabolic push past $4,000 History says when $ETH breaks structure like this, liquidity spins into majors and alts next. Could be the key chart to watch over the coming weeks. I’ll traThis wave of oil price plungement is purely a "stampede scene" where the geopolitical premium has been instantly drained. Suddenly, the US and Iran pressed the pause button, and the safe-haven funds that had priced in the worst-case scenario immediately turned and fled, mercilessly dumping the market.
Essentially, it was a mismatch in expectations. Previously, the market overestimated tight supply and demand and the risk of supply cutouts. In reality, ships in the Strait of Hormuz are still moving, and the bubble bursts with a single injection. After sentiment faded, high oil prices lacked fundamental consolidation support, directly wiping out all the accumulated profit-taking.
On the market, the sharp drop not only cleared out floating chips but also completely disrupted the original long trading rhythm. Bears are riding the wave of news, while bulls don't even have room to resist. When panic selling turns into consensus, the price drop itself becomes the biggest bearish driver.
However, the market has always been forgetful. Once the shock from the news is fully absorbed, funds will eventually return to the true logic of the fundamental supply and demand base. This sudden plunge was, frankly, just cooling down an overheated market and squeezing out all the moisture.
#原油下跌约6%
#原油一度跌破90美元
#布伦特原油跌约6%
#WTI原油期货跌8% $
$BZ $CLThis week may determine your earnings in the second half of the year.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve, on Thursday Apple and Amazon, combined with tariffs and soaring oil prices, four consecutive coins triggered a weekly explosion.
Let me lay out this week's timeline for you.
On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve FOMC decision. Hawkish Chairman Warsh met against the backdrop of a rebound in inflation, noting that while the probability of a rate hike is not high, it is not zero. This is the master switch for emotions.
After Thursday's market hours, Apple and Amazon released earnings reports. The final battle among the seven giants will be used by the market to judge whether the entire AI capital expenditure story can continue.
There are also two lines in the background music. Global tariffs have been pushed to 15%, inflationary pressures have increased, the situation in Iran has not settled down, and oil prices remain high.
Four events are crammed into one week, and the outcome of any one could trigger dramatic fluctuations.
During this week of extreme uncertainty, I didn't make any aggressive moves, kept my positions at a level I could fully handle, and kept enough cash.
No guessing about the Fed, no betting on earnings, no short-term trading.
Because the biggest feature of this type of week is its huge volatility but random direction.
The odds of guessing the right direction are about the same as flipping a coin, but once you guess wrong and use leverage, the losses are real. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables $BTC These are my insights and reflections from reading and studying Abu's "Price Behavior," recorded for my review and reflections in crypto trading. The writing is somewhat jumpy and colloquial, suitable for friends with some knowledge of price behavior to discuss and learn together. Please do not repost. Definition: If breakouts and channels reflect the dominant forces of either bull or bear, then trading ranges are where neither the bulls nor bears can gain an advantage when they reach equilibrium. Breakouts and channels are ranges with angled angles at a glance, while trading channels are basically horizontal ranges. It's just that simple. Why is Abu called the trading range? Why not just call it a consolidation range or central zone? In fact, in relation to the concept of breakout and channel, this range is the price recognized by both bulls and bears for full trading here, while breakout and channel are the process of finding this price. Abu's entire set of price actions is essentially a careful explanation of the basic rules of price movement. Example Figure 1 shows Bitcoin's price movement over the past month, with the orange blocks representing the trading range. You can see the prices overlap extremely and suddenly reverse, with prices rising and falling sharply. I have no interest in trading; if it weren't for professional traders scalping themselves, most people would have forced trades here and inevitably incurred losses. Reflection 1: How to define the start of a trading range? In other words, how does the "breakout" and channel evolve into a trading range? At its core, it's about to identify the momentum driving price changes that is about to reach a balanced tipping point. As shown in Figure 2, the trading ranges are all based on a breakout followed by a slowdown in trend. Switching to the 1-hour or minute level to view the candlesticks is all the sameOn-chain RWA and tokenized stock perpetual contract monthly trading volume has surpassed $470 billion, with capital accelerating into derivative pools that possess real risk pricing capabilities, though front-end liquidity remains highly concentrated on leading platforms.
Monthly trading volume climbed from $85 billion to $470 billion within six months, demonstrating a nonlinear expansion of derivative liquidity. Among these, token stock perpetual contracts grew at seven times the rate of token commodities, with SPCX alone contributing $66 billion, indicating that cross-sector equity targets are driving major capital accumulation.
The top three platforms hold 80% of the trading share, showing that capital depth is gravitating toward centralized clearing layers. Unlike BTC maintaining a narrow range around $65,200 amid geopolitical turmoil, on-chain physical asset derivatives are independently reconstructing risk pricing channels.
The bullish scenario requires the buy-side depth of the three major platforms to continue expanding and SPCX trading to remain at the $66 billion high level. If FOMC rate cut expectations materialize and market funds do not flow out of traditional stock markets, the on-chain derivative pools will further absorb macro hedging demand, pushing the market beyond the $67,000 resistance zone. This logic fails if the leading platforms’ share falls below 70%.
The bearish scenario is triggered by excessive concentration of high-leverage positions causing liquidity shortages. If a leverage cascade occurs or concentration leads to insufficient clearing pool capacity, it can easily induce a chain of on-chain liquidation cascades. At that point, capital may rapidly withdraw to spot for risk aversion, dragging overall liquidity back down to the $85 billion baseline from six months ago.
In the next 7 days, key observations include whether the 80% trading volume concentration on the top three platforms loosens, and the real-time changes in on-chain RWA derivative clearing depth following the FOMC decision.
#贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟 #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ #美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌This is data that excites all "cyclical traders."
As of July 2026, the holdings of Faith Buyers (CBs) have reached 4.02 million BTC; This figure has already far surpassed the previous peak of 3.46 million bear stocks.
This means that although a large number of ancient chips awaken and cash out during the cycle, even more chips are taken away by believer buyers, especially when prices fall.
Although BTC has long been criticized by pessimistic investors, including: low bull market multiples, unattractive earnings-loss ratios, and expectations of dropping to 40,000, 30,000, etc.;
But none of this can shake the confidence and pace of buying and hoarding coins in the faith buyers.
Every time I see CB holdings hit new highs, I know we're one step closer to 'spring.'Google's stock price plunged—what exactly is the market worried about?
The core points boil down to two points:
First, free cash flow turned negative for the first time;
Second, the company will sharply raise its full-year capital expenditure for 2026 to $195–205 billion, raising market concerns that AI investment is too aggressive and returns may be delayed.
My view is: short-term market concerns are reasonable, and stock prices may continue to come under pressure.
But in the medium to long term, this may be the necessary and even the right radical move.
1. This is a defensive investment, not an optional "gamble."
If Google lags behind in computing power, its moat in search and advertising will be directly eroded by AI-native companies. This money is essentially "buying insurance + buying offensive options." When the technology is shifting paradigms, leaders must first overcome heavy capital stages, and cloud computing is a precedent.
2. Early indicators are already more aggressive than market pricing.
The 82% growth in cloud business, combined with a $514 billion backlog of orders, shows that demand is not unreal. As these orders gradually convert into high-margin income, free cash flow will turn positive again, and the elasticity may be quite significant. Buffett's $10 billion increase in June also shows that long-term capital does not view this investment as blindly burning cash.
So, the market is currently trading discounts due to "uncertain return pace."
This discount is reasonable in the short term, but if cloud business and AI monetization data continue to exceed expectations over the next 3 to 4 quarters, then today's sharp drop may just be a discount for the ultimate winner.
$GOOGETH running nearly 4x BTC's daily gain is worth noting. With oil retreating on ceasefire signals and the FOMC watch shifting toward a more dovish lean, the risk-on rotation is finding its way into alt-layer assets before macro fully commits. That is not random positioning. The security pressure narrative around ETH has not gone away, but the market is pricing around it rather than through it. Institutional flows tend to front-run clarity, not wait for it. Whether this holds into FOMC week dependWatch this one closely: CXMT, China's top memory chipmaker, lists July 27 in Shanghai, aiming to raise around $8.6B in Asia's biggest IPO of 2026. It arrives in the middle of a violent memory-chip cycle, days after Samsung and SK Hynix whipsawed, and it's as much a geopolitics story as a markets one.
The subtext is chip sovereignty. China floating its largest semiconductor offering in years, into a tight-memory market, is a bet that domestic supply becomes strategically essential regardless of the price cycle. For crypto the connection is oblique but real: the same AI-compute demand driving memory also drives the infrastructure narrative crypto-AI leans on. A mega-IPO priced into volatility says conviction in the secular story hasn't broken, even as the tape swings. Watching the debut and the demand.
Just my read, not advice.
#CXMTMemoryIPO #OKXOrbit$ADA Market Outlook
Current Price: $0.1649
$ADA is consolidating above horizontal base support, with lower-timeframe seller volume tapering off as spot order book absorption builds a local floor.
Support: $0.1550 – $0.1620
Resistance: $0.1820 – $0.2050
Targets: $0.1820 ➔ $0.2050 ➔ $0.2350
Holding above $0.1550 keeps the upside recovery structure active. PUMP thesis + trade setup from stream last week $1M a day with worst onchain conditions is notable, one of the few stories in crypto where the issue is actually the narrative & sentiment instead of the actual fundamentals of the business if $SOL onchain picks back up this hits all time highs relatively easily, $HYPE currently trades at a 15x higher valuation & they have the same two year revenue numbers #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch