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On August 20, the $2.7 billion short liquidation was the largest forced liquidation event of the year, signaling that the market is undergoing a structural realignment rather than a simple rebound. Is this rally just the inflow of new funds, or a temporary vacuum created by the forced release of existing short positions? To summarize the key facts of the original text first, on August 20, BTC surged from about 64,000 to 70,000, and ETH surged from 1,890 to 2,340, with ETH rising about 20% and BTC about 10% over 24 hours. Around 3 a.m. on the same day, an additional increase occurred, bringing the cumulative liquidation volume to approximately $2.7 billion. This is a wave of short liquidations in the opposite direction to the long liquidation incident on October 11, and it is the largest liquidation event of the year. Trading volume has nearly doubled compared to before. The catalyst for the second wave of gains is attributed to former President Trump's remarks discussing large-scale BTC and cryptocurrency stockpiling in the U.S. At the same time, as concerns over the Middle East situation and oil exports and imports ease, WTI crude oil ($CL$BTC BTC surged to 72,500. What is the maximum profit from this round of contracts? (Real data)
In this round, BTC broke through 70,000, with nearly 3 billion USD liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, over 90% of which were short positions liquidated. Hundreds of thousands of short accounts were wiped out, and the market's short squeeze sentiment was fully triggered.
But most people misunderstand the core logic: 3 billion USD liquidated across the network does not mean whales earned 3 billion USD.
All liquidation losses are dispersed and shared by market makers, quantitative funds, and retail long holders; they do not concentrate in the hands of a few. The widely circulated claim of "making over a billion in a single trade" is purely marketing exaggeration with no real on-chain evidence.
Currently, the largest verifiable real profit on-chain from this round: top whales positioned long at low levels, fully capturing this rally, with single trade net profits between 4.2 million and 6.1 million USD, which is the ceiling of publicly available profits for this round.
Most mid-sized whales and institutional swing profits are concentrated in the 1.2 million to 3 million USD range. The vast majority of other large holders only have unrealized gains and have not taken profits; their profits can be retracted anytime with market pullbacks. Additionally, the largest option trades show unrealized gains up to only 3.5 million USD.
The core truth of this round: this is a collective short squeeze washout rally, not a scenario where a few people rake in huge profits.
Despite the market surge and explosive liquidation data, very few top players precisely positioned at low levels and fully realized large profits. Most traders ultimately only witnessed the rally without truly capturing the big gains.$BTC climbed to 72189, rising 681% in 24 hours, with market dominance returning to 58.84%. It looks fierce, but breaking it down is interesting.
The apparent driving force is the SEC's new regulations allowing certain custody arrangements, combined with the sentiment boost from the White House Digital Asset Summit. However, the spot ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling about $131 million. Institutions haven't followed; instead, they're withdrawing. Veteran players like Fidelity and ARKB are watching cautiously.
The real forces pushing the price up are twofold: retail FOMO and leveraged shorts getting liquidated. According to liquidation data, about $2 billion in shorts were liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with $BTC accounting for a significant portion. The market is driven by stop-loss orders, not genuine demand to accumulate; in plain terms, the rally is to trigger short squeezes! Blindly chasing this will likely get you trapped!
The 200-day moving average near 69,500 is the key bull-bear dividing line. Breaking through and holding above it means bulls regain control; failing to hold means this is a nice short squeeze rebound, and the price will need to find support again later.
My judgment: the short-term bullish factors have been fully priced in, and chasing the high carries more risk than reward. Those with heavy positions should manage their risk exposure and not let a big green candle change their worldview. In a choppy market, earning a little less is better than losing a lot.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC Two days ago, the entire network consensus was highly unified: liquidity in the crypto space was dried up, all funds had flowed into US stocks, and without money, BTC couldn't rise.
But last night, there was a violent pump, a typical two-stage bait-and-switch:
In the first half of the night, the price was pushed to 69,000, creating a false impression of a peak and stagnation, signaling a pullback was coming, causing many shorts to add positions accordingly; after the short positions were trapped and many were convinced a drop was imminent, in the second half of the night, the price accelerated directly to 72,000, leaving those who woke up stunned.
Wanting to short when it rises and longing when it falls is the most classic human trap in the market, one that even the vast majority of KOLs can't escape—after all, without volatility, there is no traffic or trading. Calm waters don't train trading skills; snipers also need live bullets from real trades.
Core question: Is this the start of a bull market rebound, or a bull trap followed by a deep crash?
Your judgment is very reasonable; I also lean towards a sharp divergence and pullback first, rather than a seamless new main rise. Let me explain in two parts:
1. Why is it hard to have a direct continuous bull rebound?
• The first wave of core momentum is short covering, a one-time buy, not new spot/ETF continuous incremental funds. The squeeze money is stop-loss money, not new active bullish money, so naturally there is a need for a pullback after the impulse;
• The chip structure is already highly financialized: ETFs, listed company MSTR, market makers, and institutional base holdings account for a very high proportion, with very few retail chips at low levels.
This creates a real contradiction: institutions have already built their base positions at low levels, and retail investors are basically not on board. Unrestrained violent pumps will only become institutions cutting each other while retail watches, with no new funds to take over, so the market won't go far;
• Two days ago, liquidity was said to have flowed to US stocks, indicating cross-market incremental funds have not truly returned on a large scale, only on-exchange short clearing plus policy expectation recovery, not a full-scale flood of liquidity;
• 69,000-72,000 is a previously dense trapped zone; turnover here is insufficient, and resistance going up is huge.
2. But this does not mean an immediate deep crash; we must distinguish between "pullback after short squeeze" and "complete false breakout"
Two key differentiating conditions:
✅ If ETFs continue to have net inflows, daily closes hold above 69,000, and pullbacks do not lose 68,000, the short squeeze is just the first phase of the market. The main themes of regulatory bills and US debt liquidity improvement remain, so the market will digest with oscillation and gradually rise;
❌ If it is just leverage liquidations pushing, spot fails to follow, and it quickly falls back below 69,000, then it is a typical bull trap washout plus reversal burying chasing longs, and your deep crash prediction will come true.
3. The two most dangerous types of people right now
• New shorts who saw the 69,000 stagnation in the first half of the night and heavily chased shorts, just got fully squeezed;
• New longs who woke up to see a break above 72,000 and impulsively called a bull rebound and chased with high leverage, just caught profit-taking and institutional selling.
The market's most enjoyable right now is using this two-stage move to harvest leverage positions in both directions, perfectly matching what you said: calm waters don't breed fishermen.
Summary
1. This wave is not a natural incremental bull market start; it is driven by policy expectations plus crowded short squeeze, best defined as structural repair plus epic short squeeze;
2. Blindly chasing highs is extremely risky; your logic favoring a deep pullback later is very solid, as current chip structure and fund sources do not support a one-sided rally without pullback;
3. To truly confirm a bull rebound, we must wait for: short squeeze momentum to fade, volume-supported pullback holding support, continuous spot/ETF fund follow-up, and retail incremental funds entering. So far, only the first step of short clearing is done;
4. The market is indeed becoming more institutionalized; pure pumps without turnover or new retail participation will have increasingly poor sustainability, and purely institutional mutual cutting has very low participation value.
What do you all think? Will this continue to squeeze shorts, or will a large-scale pullback come soon? Discuss in the comments👇
#BTC breaks $72,000, can this rally continue?
Trader DogzongAI is weakening—OpenAI's revenue is 6.7 billion, loss is 12.3 billion—Is this called growth?
$OPENAI Q2 revenue is 6.7 billion, up 18% quarter-over-quarter, looks pretty good. But operating loss increased from 9.3 billion to 12.3 billion—revenue up 18%, loss up 32%, is this growth? This is accelerating cash burn.
Anthropic's revenue for the same period is 11.6 billion, doubling with profit. To translate: OpenAI is a trendy store with long lines but no profit; Anthropic is a private kitchen with fewer customers but profit at every table.
The CFO says IPO in 2027. Brother, at this loss rate, OpenAI's 2027 valuation model should change from "revenue growth" to "how long it can survive." Computing costs are killing them, and no matter how big the user base is, it can't fill the hole of burning over a billion every month.
The AI narrative is shifting from "disrupting the world" to "who can profit first."
If OpenAI continues to weaken, those AI concept coins in the crypto space (like Render, Fetch.ai) will also weaken. After all, if the leader can't make money, how can on-chain AI projects turn around?
Disclaimer—ChatGPT is very useful, but OpenAI's financial report looks worse than my contracts. If Anthropic issues a coin, I'll be the first to jump in
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 Brothers, after this wave of $BTC and $ETH rally, I finally got enlightened.
First of all, don't rush to short at this stage. My short positions are already stuck, luckily with very low leverage. The market is very likely to have another surge in the short term.
Previously, shorts were continuously liquidated, with Bitcoin and ETH rising together, causing market sentiment to reverse sharply. A few days ago, everyone was worried about a downturn, but now the whole network is talking about whether the bull market will return. I, on the other hand, don't want to enter to gamble on this last tail of the rally.
Long-term, I still favor BTC and ETH, but the signs of a short-term tail rally are becoming more obvious. I will closely watch Bitcoin as it approaches around 75,000. Even if ETH continues to rise, I won't chase it. The higher it goes, the worse the risk-reward ratio becomes. It will be much more worthwhile to look for shorting opportunities after the peak.
Let's talk about SanDisk. It has recently shown an independent trend. Its recent rise was not solely driven by sentiment; the long-term supply agreements and the underlying demand logic for AI storage remain intact. The only downside is that the next quarter guidance in the earnings report fell short of market expectations. Mid-term, I still expect a steady upward trend.
The main players won't let everyone easily profit from the final rally. My plan: slowly look for opportunities in SanDisk, absolutely do not chase highs in BTC and ETH; once there is another surge, first reduce my long positions, then look for points to try shorting.
The big picture is bullish, but short-term caution is necessary.ETH Trading Strategy:
Focus on long entries in the 2250-2235 range below, with a stop loss at 2200 (exit longs if broken, then watch for a pullback in the 2150-2120 range; if longs hold, re-enter positions)
Focus on reducing positions in the 2310-2335 range above; if 2335 is broken with a solid close upward, gradually advance targets to 2350-2385-2420
If the late session rebounds to 2335 without a solid upward break, enter short positions; monitor the overall 2335-2200 range
BTC Trading Strategy:
Focus on long entries in the 70500-71000 range below, with a stop loss at 70000 (exit longs if broken, then watch for a pullback in the 69200-68500 range; if 67200-67500 holds, enter longs)
Focus on reducing positions in the 72500-72800 range above; if 73500 is broken with a solid close upward, gradually advance targets to 74200-75000-76000-78500
If the late session rebounds to 72500 without a solid upward break, enter short positions; monitor the overall 72500-70000 range
XAU Trading Strategy:
In the late session, watch for a rebound at 4535-4550; if 4550 is broken, follow through to 4585-4620
If 4550 does not hold with a solid close in the evening, watch for short positions on pullbacks; below, continue to watch 4465-4450, and if broken, advance to 4435-4400-4380 range
If the pullback holds at 4450, maintain support and enter longs; continue to monitor consolidation within the range $ETH $BTC $XAU Liquidity layering is the real threshold
BTC ETFs have opened the institutional gateway, but funds have only stayed at the surface level. The true on-chain economy—DeFi lending, RWA settlement, stablecoin circulation—requires another layer of liquidity, which cannot be automatically fueled just by ETF net inflows. ETH is that layering line: if ETH does not outperform BTC, funds will not cross over from "digital gold" to the "smart contract layer." Crossing this hurdle requires a triple resonance of regulatory frameworks, yield expectations, and on-chain activity. The threshold is higher than imagined, but once crossed, the ceiling is also higher than expected—because then ETH’s pricing anchor will shift from "speculative volatility" to "on-chain GDP." In other words, ETH’s value will no longer be determined by trader sentiment but will be jointly supported by real economic indicators such as on-chain settlement volume, RWA deposit scale, and stablecoin circulation speed. This is a reshaping of the valuation system, not a simple price correction. Although other public chains like Solana and Sui have advantages in throughput, Ethereum has already established a first-mover advantage in the depth of compliant stablecoins and tokenized asset deposits that is difficult to replicate in the short term—once this advantage is formally recognized by regulatory frameworks, it will convert into a premium Nvidia ($NVDA) and Marvell ($MRVL) will respectively announce their Q2 fiscal year 2027 earnings next week. This event is particularly watched by investors amid the AI stock sector's recent positive recovery. The key point the market is focused on is not only whether AI demand remains strong but also the bigger question: whether actual orders, contracts, and revenues can keep pace with and justify the current valuation. The divergence between expectations and the actual results is critical.$BTC breaks through 72,000! The bull market engine is fully ignited!
BTC is soaring all the way, with the latest quote at 72,234.7 USDT, a 24-hour increase of +5.36%, once reaching 72,566. The 70,000 USD mark has been completely left behind!
🚀 Full outbreak
· Tremendous volume: trading volume reaches 1.207 billion USDT, with strong buying pressure.
· Trend strengthening: SuperTrend moves up to 65,033, price steadily rising, bullish structure unbreakable.
· All cycles turn positive: 7-day +13.90%, 30-day +8.33%, 180-day +5.27%, 90-day decline narrows to -5.94%, bull market pattern gradually confirmed.
· Upside space: after breaking 72,500, the next target is 75,000-76,000; short-term support at 70,000.
💡 Trading strategy
1. Hold long positions: move stop-loss up to 70,000, continue to play for upside potential.
2. For those out of the market wanting to enter: consider entering if price stabilizes at 71,000-71,500, stop-loss below 70,000.
3. Risk warning: volatility is intense during acceleration phase, leverage should not be too high, avoid blindly chasing highs or selling lows. The whole market was red, but I recalled those same nights in the seventeen cycles of reincarnation. When everyone says, "This time is really different," how much do you believe it? Today's data is straightforward: OKB continues to strengthen thanks to its exchange fundamentals, BICO, which has been long-term in project positioning, finally caught its breath, and even CORE has been driven by overall sentiment to form a small bullish candlestick. Under the red candlelight, the brothers on OKX Planet started shouting "The bull is here!" The account recovered at a speed that made people feel as if the losses from the first sixteen cycles were nothing but a dream. But I want to mention a perhaps unwelcome observation. In a broad rally, the most easily overlooked aspect is the divergence in sector strength. The fastest gains today are often not the fundamentals that are strongest, but those that fell the deepest earlier. This kind of "evenly shared benefit" rally is essentially a short-term recovery in risk appetite, rather than capital reaching consensus on a particular narrative. What truly deserves attention is which stocks can still hold high levels after the initial wave of sentiment fades, and which will be the first to fall. The signals I see are as follows: - The characteristic of strong sectors is "resisting declines during declines and following rises when prices rise," such as OKB, which has platform revenue as a bottom-line stock, is a defensive offensive stock. - The typical behavior of weak sectors is "leading the decline when falling and catching up when rising," with BICO and CORE acting more like passive rebounds driven by market sentiment. - The speed at which sector strength shifts often reveals the true intentions of funds more than price movements. Some advised me to hold onto positions and wait for higher profits, while others took advantage of this rebound$BTC White House Crypto Meeting Catalyzes Market: Trump Urges Passage of the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin Surges Sharply
Market news: On Wednesday local time, U.S. President Trump hosted a closed-door meeting with cryptocurrency industry executives at the White House. Executives from leading crypto companies including Coinbase, Kraken, and BitGo attended the talks. During the meeting, Trump publicly urged Congress to accelerate the passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act). Stimulated by optimistic policy expectations, Bitcoin quickly rallied, breaking through the $72,000 mark, while Ethereum simultaneously rose above $2,200, with the entire crypto market sentiment broadly warming up.
Key signals released from the meeting
1. Strong push for the CLARITY Act legislative process
Trump explicitly called on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act as soon as possible. The core of this act is to clarify the jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, categorizing tokens as "network tokens/auxiliary assets," establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the crypto industry, and ending the long-standing regulatory ambiguity. The bill has already passed the House of Representatives and is currently stalled in Senate negotiations. Whether it will be enacted remains the biggest policy variable for the industry.
2. Indication of possible U.S. government Bitcoin purchases
Trump stated he would seriously consider regulatory agencies' advice and explore plans for the U.S. government to increase Bitcoin holdings. Existing executive orders already require the Treasury to study budget-neutral Bitcoin procurement strategies. This statement greatly stimulated bullish market sentiment, with the market beginning to trade on expectations of a "U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve."
3. Promoting compliant entry of DeFi derivatives into the U.S. market
It was also revealed that the CFTC is advancing the compliant launch of the decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid in the U.S., exploring ways to incorporate DeFi platforms into the domestic regulatory system. Correspondingly, the HYPE token experienced a significant pulse surge.
Market driving logic: Expectations lead, but obstacles remain
This rally is driven by policy expectations combined with short covering. The long-standing regulatory uncertainty hanging over the industry shows signs of marginal easing, with a large concentration of short positions closing out, helping BTC quickly break through key resistance levels.
However, positive news does not guarantee certainty; multiple hurdles remain in reality:
1. Intense Senate negotiations: The CLARITY Act faces strong opposition from banking groups, with possibilities of amendments, compromises, or shelving still present. Verbal urging does not equal bill enactment.
2. Regulatory friendliness does not mean full deregulation: Even after the bill passes, compliance constraints such as KYC, disclosure, and risk control will be introduced. The native "permissionless" nature of DeFi will face certain limitations.
3. Macroeconomic constraints persist: Long-term U.S. Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policies, and Middle East geopolitical conflicts will continue to disturb risk assets. Policy benefits can only shift sentiment, not fully hedge macro risks.
Industry insights
U.S. policy direction is visibly shifting, with regulatory thinking moving from "strong crackdown" to "legislative guidance." Institutional funds, listed companies, and ETF capital are all waiting for a clear legal framework. Once the bill is truly enacted, it will open the ceiling for large-scale institutional entry.
However, the current stage is merely expectation-driven speculation. The focus going forward should be on tracking Senate voting progress. Do not mistake expectations for realized facts.
$BTC $ETH $HYPELet's clarify the concept: there are two types of real easing: the Fed directly buying bonds (QE money printing), and the Treasury repurchasing U.S. Treasuries to inject liquidity into the market; Conversely, large-scale new long-term bond issuance actually drains liquidity from the market, with the opposite effect. 1. Positive Liquidity Injection (Treasury buybacks US Treasury bonds / Federal Reserve QE bond purchases, injecting US dollars into the market) 1. The first direct impact: falling US Treasury yields and rising risk asset valuations. The risk-free rate is the anchor of global asset pricing. Take the Treasury's expanded long-term bond buyback on August 19 as an example: after the news was made, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries quickly fell from 5.34% to 5.19% in a single day. With real interest rates falling, funds were unwilling to sit idle and earn bond interest, shifting instead to high-risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. On that day, Bitcoin surged from 64,112 to nearly $70,000, with a single-day maximum gain of 8.7%. Short positions across the network totaled $1.4 billion—a vivid historical example. Historically, liquidity indicators have consistently correlated with BTC prices at 80%, and liquidity surges from US Treasuries often lag about 8 months before being reflected in coin prices. 2. Second Layer: Weakening Dollar, Activation of Anti-Inflation Narrative Expectations of Monetary Easing Fueled Market Expectations of Dollar Depreciation and Rising Inflation, The Hedging Narrative of Bitcoin as "Digital Gold" Attracts Capital's Attention. Institutional funds will prioritize allocation through BTC spot ETFs, with incremental funds entering the market, driving the overall market upward; In a liquidity environment with abundant liquidity, it is easier for altcoins and MEME coins to rotate in the market.$BTC 72184——When volatility wakes up from hibernation
On August 20, BTC tore apart the past three months of sideways consolidation with an 11.8% bullish candle.
Data doesn't lie.
24-hour range: 72,566 → 66,816, range 5,750. This is a clear signal that low volatility has ended, with 30-day realized volatility jumping from 42% to a higher range.
Liquidation data: 2.99 billion, most of which are short liquidations rather than long profit-taking. This means the rise is not "someone buying," but "someone forced to buy," a passive buy from short covering.
Spot trading volume: 1.302 billion (24h), 18,600 BTC turnover volume leads the price, but sustainability is questionable.
Key question: Is this a trend reversal or a carefully designed liquidity hunt?
Structurally, after BTC broke through 72,000, the resistance zone up to 74,000 is relatively thin. The trapped positions from March have mostly been digested through repeated oscillations, but the risk lies in the fact that among the 2.99 billion liquidations, leveraged longs are also rapidly rebuilding positions. If spot ETF funds fail to continue flowing in, the pullback during the Asian session tomorrow morning could be equally severe.
Conclusion: The trend has turned bullish, but don't chase longs above 72,000. Wait for a pullback to 70,500-71,200 with volume contraction confirmation before deciding your position.
The most dangerous time in a short squeeze is when everyone thinks there won't be a pullback.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
In two days, it surged from 64,000 to 72,000, a 12% increase. Bears are completely overwhelmed, with a total liquidation of $3.49 billion across the network, bears accounting for $2.92 billion.
Why such a fierce rise? Three reasons combined:
1. US Treasury Repo
The Treasury raised the long-term bond repo limit from 2 billion to 4 billion, long bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, and funds flowed from the bond market to risk assets. BTC rose along with gold and US stocks.
2. Expectation of the "CLARITY Act"
Trump held an emergency crypto meeting at the White House, saying he wants to push a "fair version" of the CLARITY Act. Although the bill will be voted on September 15, the market has already started pricing it in.
3. Short Squeeze
BTC hovered around 60,000 for half a year, with increasing short leverage. Once the price broke 66,000, a wave of forced liquidations came. Short covering formed a chain buy, pushing the price all the way up to 72,000.
Impact on major coins:
ETH rose nearly 20%, and large-cap coins like SOL also gained some beta.
But the rise structure is different—BTC is supported by real ETF inflows (net inflow about $1.48 billion in August), while ETH and SOL are more driven by sentiment spillover.
Impact on altcoins:
Altcoins are also rising, but don’t be too optimistic. This wave is mainly driven by short covering, not long-term capital inflow. The altcoin season indicator is still far from a strong cycle above 75. The current rhythm is "BTC moves first, altcoins later." Those wanting to trade altcoins can wait for BTC to stabilize and leverage to spread to altcoins, but it’s still early to heavily chase altcoin beta now.
Summary:
BTC broke 72,000 with strong short-term momentum. $ETH and $SOL can ride the wave, altcoins need to wait a bit longer.
$BTC $BCH The order book around 220.9 for BCH is really strange, with shrinking volume but the buy and sell walls repeatedly pushing, a typical manipulator shaking out short-term chips. The K-line bottom shows continuous volume support, clearly funds are accumulating. Now, chasing in is a bet on whether it breaks the previous high or a bull trap? I have an idea in mind, but my position isn't heavy. As usual, don't go all in; exit if it falls below 218. What do you think—is this a setup or a bull trap? Leave a signal in the comments if you're on the same page. 👇👇👇$3.37 BILLION LIQUIDATED IN 24 HOURS.
Crypto just witnessed a MASSIVE liquidation event.
•194,548 traders liquidated
•$3.07B = Long liquidations
•$298M = Short liquidations
•Biggest single liquidation: $48.8M BTC position
The leverage has been flushed.
Is this the bottom… or just the beginning?
$BTC $ETH Saturday night session, we have to talk about this kind of post-rally consolidation
After a big surge, entering a high-level turnover phase really tests the mindset—BTC holds steady at 74100, ETH rallies then falls back stuck at 2460, and many altcoins see intraday swings of 30 points. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $3.6 billion, with both longs and shorts getting wiped out in rounds.
This is no longer a simple one-way rally; it’s a phase of concentrated short-term profit-taking + some longs taking profits and exiting + new funds buying at highs, a fierce high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
BTC: 74100, entering a shakeout phase after a big surge
After BTC pierced 75200 on the upside, it saw a clear pullback, completing a violent shakeout. Notably, although there was a retracement, there was no crash-style volume dump; most of the previous breakout supports remain intact.
In the evening, repeated high-level spikes and dips show intensified bull-bear battles. Core support is at 72800‑73300; as long as this range holds, the larger bullish trend remains intact. Resistance above is 74800‑75200.
ETH: 2460, digesting huge profit-taking after the rally
Intraday high reached 2530, then quickly fell back, with an extremely volatile range. The ETH/BTC ratio remains high, indicating funds are still willing to allocate to the Ethereum ecosystem, but after consecutive sharp rises, many floating profit chips are choosing to cash out.
Evening sees back-and-forth consolidation to wash out chips, a normal pullback and rest after a big surge. Key support is 2380‑2410; if this holds without a decisive break, there is still momentum for a second rally.
SOL: 94.3, high elasticity with high volatility
After hitting 98 on the upside, it quickly pulled back, with intense high-level chip exchanges. Overall market risk appetite remains, but selling pressure starts to release after continuous rises. As an elastic leader, it surges fiercely but also pulls back sharply. Support at 90.2, resistance 97‑99.
HYPE: 18-point wide-range oscillation, altcoins start intense turnover
No longer a mindless one-way uptrend, it’s a huge shakeout after a big surge. Although the underlying narrative hasn’t changed, the short-term gains are huge, and a large amount of short-term funds are taking profits and fleeing. Chips are fully exchanging, and high-level volatility will significantly increase.
XRP, DOGE: sector divergence emerges, catch-up rallies start to diverge
XRP gave back more than half of its gains after the rally, with low-entry funds cashing out profits. DOGE sentiment cools, meme coins no longer rally broadly, and the market shows strong-weak divergence, no longer a phase where blindly buying guarantees profits.
A few core points
Tonight’s consolidation is a high-level shakeout after a big bullish candle, a risk release during the uptrend, not a direct trend reversal.
The underlying logic driving the market hasn’t disappeared, but the short-term gains are too large, and the market needs time to digest profits.
Market tiers shift: independent altcoins enter huge shakeout > ETH mainline consolidates > BTC holds the base > small and mid-cap coins show clear divergence.
Repeated spikes and liquidations on both sides tonight indicate huge internal disagreement. After a large-scale shakeout, if support holds, the next upward wave will begin.
Trading strategy
Do not chase highs, do not prematurely call tops, wait for pullback stabilization signals, reduce position size to cope with volatility.
BTC: 72800‑73300 is the key strength/weakness dividing line; hold to continue watching the wave.
ETH: wait for pullback to 2380‑2410 to stabilize before considering opportunities; do not chase highs.
HYPE: high-level volatility risk increases; avoid heavy positions.
SOL, XRP: sector divergence; abandon chasing highs, only buy dips.
A risk reminder
High-level volatility after continuous surges with two-way spikes will become normal; both bulls and bears are easily swept out. Even if the mid-term trend remains bullish, short-term deep pullbacks will occur.
A bull market does not mean blindly going long; shakeouts are the most likely times to lose money.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Gold’s return above $4,500/oz on Aug. 20 looks more significant when viewed through positioning, not price alone. SPDR Gold Shares added 9.41 tonnes, reaching 1,034.65 tonnes. Meanwhile, 53 China-listed gold funds grew by RMB26.8B since the start of August, reaching RMB424.2B by Aug. 19. That broader fund participation can reinforce the rally—but it also raises the cost of disappointment. A weaker dollar, lower Treasury yields and persistent deficit concerns remain supportive. But rising long-te⚠️ Basent's Statement
The scale of U.S. Treasury buybacks is expected to exceed $4 billion
At the same time, it points out that the current U.S. Treasury yields have deviated from fundamentals
------------
Recently, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have continued to rise
The Treasury Department plans to buy back long-term government bonds
Aiming to lower long-term interest rates and stabilize the bond market
This is a debt management operation by the Treasury Department
Not a Federal Reserve money printing
Billions in buybacks compared to trillions in the U.S. Treasury market
💥 More of a confidence signal
Hard to completely reverse the major trend in the bond market
------------
When he says yields do not reflect fundamentals
He means the yield increase is not entirely driven by economic data
To a large extent, it is market panic
Driven by trading sentiment from massive bond issuance
"From the crypto market perspective, this is a short-term positive sentiment"
If buybacks can suppress U.S. Treasury yields
Dollar pressure will ease, and funds will favor risk assets
Beneficial for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin $BTC $ETH $SOL
But don't be overly optimistic, this is only a relief measure
It cannot solve the root cause of the U.S.'s large fiscal deficit
Once buybacks are implemented and yields rebound again📈
⚠️ Risk assets will face correction pressure
‼️ Currently, the crypto space is caught in a dual battle between macro interest rates and U.S. regulation
✅ On one side, watch U.S. Treasury yield trends
✅ On the other, closely monitor the September 15 vote on the "Clear Act"
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 😭😭😭 $3.4 billion in short positions buried alive, 194,800 people liquidated, and I am one of them
Last week I wrote four or five articles bearish on BTC. Every reason was true. ETFs are withdrawing, whales are running, funding rates are negative to the floor.
Then BTC surged from 64,000 to 72,000. My 63,200 short position was stopped out at 63,300.
In 24 hours, 194,800 people were liquidated for $3.4 billion, 92% were shorts. The biggest massacre since 2021. I witnessed history, the cost was experiencing history firsthand.
The most ironic thing is, none of my bearish reasons were false. But with Trump holding meetings in the White House, the SEC pushing new regulations, and the Treasury expanding bond buybacks, these three things combined caused a bullish candle to shoot up.
You talk to me about RSI? One sentence from Trump outweighs a hundred RSIs.
Just like with SanDisk. After a 47% drop, I chased shorts and got killed by a 60% rebound. After a week of decline, I was bearish again and got squeezed out with stop losses. The same mistake twice — chasing shorts during a downtrend and getting blown up by rebounds. Seems like I only learned one thing: shorting.
But stop losses were still right. The 63,300 stop loss cost me 100 points, but without it, at 72,000, my 400U would have been wiped out eightfold. Stop losses don’t stop you from making money, they stop you from dying.
Now I have no positions, neither chasing longs nor shorts. Shorting in a policy-driven market is like going against Trump, and I don’t have that courage yet. Chasing longs at 72,000? I’m not going to turn the other cheek after getting slapped on the left.
The $3.4 billion graveyard grass hasn’t even grown yet, why rush. $BTC $ETH $OKB #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ 1. ETF Institutional Funds (External Incremental Funding Window) BTC spot ETFs showed intraday high-level divergence. After large net inflows the previous day, short-term profit-taking selling increased today. Institutions did not chase the rally during the rally, and large active buying orders were rare, with funds mainly readjusting positions on the exchange. ETH spot ETFs also saw short-term cash-outs. Although the overall inflow trend has recently warmed up, the price has risen far beyond the scale of ETF inflows, so this rally is not driven by external compliant institutional funds. Institutional funds are currently cautiously watching; sustained net inflows are the key signal of a trend continuation. 2. On-chain Whale Funds (Medium- to Long-Term Chip Perspective) Long-term whale holdings remain stable, continuously withdrawing BTC and ETH from exchanges to self-custody wallets and locking them, maintaining the long-term token accumulation logic; Short-term trading whales gradually transferred chips above 72,000 to exchanges to take profits and adjust positions, without consistent large-scale positioning. In the counterfeit direction, short-term whales quickly switched to MEME hotspots BOME and PUMP with quick in-and-out moves. Most of the previously popular and obsolete coins have already been distributed at high levels by whales and exited. 3. Smart money targeting funds (short-term main force behavior) Long-term smart money maintains a base position; Short-term smart money leveraged this round of rapid rotation during this surge—some betting on XRP's main trend, while others trading in meme hotspots, with flexible leveraged positions in and out. Currently, Smart Money is not collectively bullish; portfolio rebalancing and stock swapping have become the main action at this stage. 4. Futures Derivatives Funds (Core Driver of This Round) Total Open Interest Across the NetworkAlthough SK Hynix announced a buyback and increased holdings, this positive news seems to have come too late, and the market rebound is not very strong. However, SK Hynix's performance in the Korean stock market has never been strong. Let's see how the US stock market performs tonight; or maybe storage really has a hard time rising.
But in the long run, storage is essentially a cyclical stock. Although storage chip prices are very high now (servers have become super expensive), next year or the year after might be a turning point for the storage industry. Why do I say this?
One reason is that these US-listed storage companies are also vigorously building factories and expanding capacity. Another is that downstream companies will start looking for alternatives. Also, based on the capacity projections of Chinese companies like ChangXin, the impact on the entire industry in the next couple of years will be significant. Our Chinese manufacturing industry is strong and very good at expanding capacity and engaging in price wars (similar to lithium batteries).
This is also why when listed companies release financial reports and mention large investments in AI, the market falls instead of rises, because many investors feel that this money might really not be recovered.
Right now, you can still trade SanDisk in waves, but it feels like it will be harder to do so in the future. The previously mentioned level starting with 14 hasn't been reached yet, so just wait a bit longer. Buy when no one is interested, sell when the crowds are bustling. Today, the market has surged significantly, and the entire market appears to be thriving. At times like this, many people are affected by emotions and can't help but want to go long. Or, unable to resist shorting. I believe that in such emotional moments, one should not chase after hot topics. Chasing hot topics often leads to injury; even if you make money temporarily, you might end up losing it with interest. At times like this, what we should do most is calm down and look at those coins that no one cares about. —————————————————— Personally, I think $BEAT market makers are very likely to take advantage of this strong rally to buy out the market. Because $BEAT has been declining steadily, while other coins in the market have surged significantly. In this situation, those holding $BEAT inevitably feel a lot of loss. After feeling down, many people cut their losses to chase higher prices. As a result, the chips naturally concentrate in the hands of the dealer. Once the dealer gets the chips, the price naturally rises all the way. Because if prices don't push up, it's hard for large funds to enter the market. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its data. It can be seen that the contract open interest and long-short ratio are increasing simultaneously, indicating that many people are still going long. Let's look at the data from a slightly longer period. It can be seen that data from a slightly longer period and a shorter period are almost identical. All of this indicates that the market is filled with multiple players accumulating shares#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
I am Cige. After SanDisk surged to 1800, it started fluctuating at high levels. On August 18, it once dropped more than 9% at the open, and after rebounding intraday on August 19, it fell about 3.5% again. The divergence in the storage sector is widening.
The long-term growth targets released on Investor Day are the core driving force behind the sector's rebound. Goldman Sachs set a target price of $2200, JPMorgan raised it to $2250, and long-term contracts lock in nearly $100 billion in revenue over the next four years. However, short-term funds are switching repeatedly at high levels because the pace of valuation repricing has outpaced fundamental verification.
Bank of America believes SanDisk's long-term targets can provide a reference for Micron's valuation, but the key lies in NAND price trends, the execution strength of customer agreements, and whether AI server demand can continue to support profit margins. SK Hynix announced a 40 trillion KRW buyback, but its stock price still fell about 9.2% that day, indicating that while the market rewards long-term narratives, it is also adjusting short-term valuations.
SanDisk's long-term logic has not been overturned, but the cost-effectiveness of chasing gains in the short term is declining. The storage sector is moving from an emotional recovery phase into a fundamental verification phase, a process that will not happen overnight and will continue to be volatile. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Cige has finished speaking; take your time to savor it. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Haha, to be honest, I'm already a bit numb. ETH's recent surge has indeed been fierce, quickly shooting up from a low position in a short time, with shorts being continuously liquidated. Market data shows that ETH short liquidations have exceeded $1 billion, and the short-term short squeeze effect is very obvious. My own approach is rather restrained: small positions for testing, never chasing with heavy positions. Currently, my judgment remains cautious, even leaning bearish in the short term, but that doesn't mean I want to go short immediately. Because in such a strong short squeeze rally, opening shorts against the trend can easily get blown up again. Having suffered losses before, this time I'd rather be slower. Will ETH directly start a major uptrend? I've seriously thought about this question. If you only look at the candlesticks, ETH is indeed very strong now; but from the perspective of chips and market structure, I actually think there is a fairly big trap here. Historically, big rallies rarely move in a straight line. Before a truly large-scale rise, there is usually a round of sufficient consolidation, turnover, and chip sedimentation. The market needs to wash out the unsteady chips first to make room for the subsequent main uptrend. And the problem now is here: ETH has just rapidly surged, and there are still a large number of floating profits from low-position chips earlier. Suppose ETH continues to push higher around $2,250–$2,350, this is actually still close to the previous dense trading area. Once the price continues to surge, the early low-position bottom-fishing funds are very likely to start taking profits. In other words: the faster it rises, the heavier the short-term profit-taking becomes. This is also why I am currently unwilling to This rally looks more like a broad repricing of liquidity risk than a BTC-only breakout. ETH is leading at +17.27% in 24 hours, while BTC and SOL are both up around 10%, a rotation pattern that usually signals expanding risk appetite rather than isolated demand.
Still, BTC slipping back below $72K after breaking it argues against chasing the first move. With the FOMC split in focus and gold reclaiming 4500, macro uncertainty has not disappeared. My bias is constructive, but confirmation now requires BTC to hold the breakout area while strength remains broad.
Not advice, just analysis.BTC and ETH Network-wide Open Interest Real-time Data Analysis (August 21, 11:08)
BTC Open Interest: As the price breaks through 72000, the total BTC open interest across the network has rapidly increased, with leverage levels continuously rising. A large number of short positions were liquidated in a chain reaction over the past day, significantly clearing short-side positions. Afterward, both longs and shorts began establishing new positions at high levels, with the long-short ratio slightly rising. Currently, the proportion of newly added short-term long positions has increased, but there is no sign of a one-sided frenzy of long stacking. Divergence at high levels continues to widen, and once the market turns, high-leverage positions are prone to triggering rapid linked liquidations.
ETH Open Interest: ETH's recent gains have outperformed BTC, with its open interest growth more pronounced than BTC's. Many previously trapped short positions have been closed out, and a large number of short-term longs have entered and opened positions during the rally, causing open interest to rise in tandem. ETH's leverage-driven capital battles are more intense, and liquidation volatility during market fluctuations often exceeds that of Bitcoin.
Overall Summary: The overall market leverage level has reached a recent high, with derivative funds being the main driver of this rally. The continuous rise in open interest indicates that market volatility will further increase. If subsequent spot incremental funds fail to take over, a severe shakeout at high levels could occur at any time.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $BTC Liquidation Long Delta
LLD is now at 35 billion.
In all my years of analyzing crypto, I've never seen anything over 40B.
This suggests the tentative top is in and longs are past due for liquidation.
Probably high leverage longs, which are close by.Right now, the global financial markets are completely out of the loop. In the past, it took years or months of movement and buildup, but now the trend has completely reversed by the sky, with control shameless. This is actually not a big problem, because it shows that the structural contradictions of monopoly financial capitalism are hard to reconcile. The "impossible triangle" in Mundell has turned into the "impossible four corners," and a crisis is brewing. But how much of this is fundamentally related to our country? In our A-share market, what proportion of foreign capital does it hold? 4%。 Our national debt is very stable and doesn't need bailouts. Our RMB exchange rate is heading toward a sustained appreciation channel. Is our AI on the same path as the United States? If the path is completely different, then why do we just go all out whenever the external market fluctuates? Who exactly did it? Others drop today, but tomorrow they will rise immediately. Here, we always do the opposite, never studying any industry or development, and mostly doing things like draining the pond to catch the golden eggs. On Friday, the so-called U.S. debt crisis. Self-media have been hyping it up for a week, talking as if America is doomed, each one more radical than the last. Just like before, when Japan's exchange rate was ruined, every day, either this one was ruined or that one was doomed. Moreover, such "quick victory" statements claiming "China has always won a big game" will not be deleted, will spread far, and may even influence policy. You keep saying others are about to crash, but you're crashing even faster and more than they do. How can you say a tech sector can pull back in a month? The STAR 50 Index fell -25.90% in July, setting a new record for the largest single-month drop since the STAR Market's inception. **Fortune AccountBTC and ETH Spot ETF Buy and Sell Real-Time Data Analysis (August 21, 11:07)
Bitcoin Spot ETF: The intraday pre-market period shows an overall divergent pattern. BlackRock IBIT remains the main trading target for funds, with large buy orders intermittently appearing on the order book, but short-term profit-taking sell orders continue to emerge, rapidly narrowing the gap between buy and sell orders. After recording a large net inflow yesterday, on-exchange funds show divergence today, with many short-term institutions choosing to take profits on rallies. Incremental off-exchange buy orders have not yet kept pace with the sharp rise in the market. Looking solely at ETF fund movements, institutions have not chased the highs in sync; this round of the market rally is mainly driven by short covering in the derivatives market.
Ethereum Spot ETF: The ETF market heat is weaker than Bitcoin's. The leading product ETHA shows a more balanced battle between buy and sell orders, with no large one-sided sweeps. After several consecutive days of net inflows in recent days, market sentiment has warmed, but following ETH's rapid short-term surge, on-exchange profit-taking sell orders have clearly increased. Some short-term funds have cashed out and exited, while new entrants are slower to enter. ETF fund inflows are much smaller than the price increase.
Overall Summary: Currently, the coin price has surged violently, but institutional fund sentiment at the ETF level remains cautious, with no sustained large incremental buy orders entering. If ETF funds can resume continuous net inflows later, it will further confirm the medium- to long-term continuation of this rally; if ETF inflows stagnate, the risk of high-level oscillation and correction will increase.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice.Walmart's earnings report was released, showing a decline in discretionary spending data, further deepening expectations of weakening U.S. consumption. Coupled with the current high oil prices and high inflation expectations, macro stagflation expectations are rising!
The current macro focus has returned to this week's main theme—the verification of U.S. economic growth and consumption. After Walmart's earnings report showed a decline in discretionary spending, combined with previous earnings from major U.S. home goods companies, the overall indication is that U.S. consumption is marginally weakening.
Under the premise of weakening consumption plus current high oil prices and high inflation expectations, the market has begun to anticipate stagflation trades. Until August 26, if crude oil prices cannot effectively decline and core PCE remains sticky or even rises, the market will price in stagflation.
Currently, in the financial markets, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded and risen again intraday. The Fed has increased long-term bond repurchases to ease current pressure on the bond market. The accelerated rise in gold prices indicates the exposure of economic risks.
Regarding U.S. stocks, although they have declined, the SPHB/SPHQ ratio remains stable, and the VIX index has not risen significantly, so the U.S. stock market is not in panic but in a defensive phase.
Tomorrow is the release of the U.S. August preliminary S&P PMI. The data itself does not carry much weight, but at this stage, it is very likely to guide the market on whether to trade stagflation expectations in advance. #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 The short squeeze rally is still ongoing, and the data on short liquidations continues to expand. Over the past 24 hours, more than $1.3 billion has been liquidated, with over 90% being short positions. The 72,500 level was hit, indicating that the shorts' defensive line set above 70,000 has been systematically targeted. As the price reaches this level, the driving logic has shifted from "buy-side pushing" to "shorts being forced to cover pushing." The faster the speed, the more unstable the foundation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ The current market shows a divergence in the pricing logic for high-valuation assets, with the ability to deliver earnings directly determining the direction of position rebalancing during shifts in risk appetite.
Pop Mart's revenue for the first half of the year reached ¥17.17 billion, a 23.8% increase, while net profit attributable to the parent company grew only 10.1%. The slower profit growth compared to revenue has lowered market expectations for profit efficiency. Although the Star People IP's revenue grew nearly sixfold with 6 IPs generating over ¥1 billion each, declines in the Asia-Pacific and Americas markets indicate growth remains heavily reliant on the domestic market.
The drivers influencing position adjustments are ranked as follows: whether actual profit margins can be restored, whether overseas markets can accelerate growth again, and the spillover effect of next week's $NVDA earnings report on risk appetite in high-valuation sectors.
In the bullish scenario, a recovery in overseas business combined with $NVDA's earnings guidance exceeding expectations next week will boost market risk appetite and trigger position replenishment. The trigger condition for this scenario is a return to revenue growth in overseas regions. Variables to watch include the proportion of institutional position increases, with a failure signal being heavy selling pressure on high-valuation assets.
In the bearish scenario, if multiple IP switches fail to offset overseas declines and high-valuation premiums are squeezed, long positions will face deleveraging and exit pressure. The trigger condition here is further constraints on profitability. Variables to monitor include the depth of sector-wide pullbacks, with a failure signal being a rapid decline in trading volume followed by a halt in price drops.
The failure condition for the above judgments is a significant overall macro risk appetite rebound, causing capital to temporarily ease strict scrutiny of profit margins.
The core variables to observe over the next 7 days are the rhythm of institutional holdings changes following the $NVDA earnings release and the net capital flow in high-valuation sectors.
#宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧Is the money coming back again? Wall Street is re-leveraging SK Hynix
$SKHY has shown a very interesting signal:
Wall Street is re-leveraging SK Hynix.
At the most crowded time last year, banks quoted swap long positions on SK Hynix at rates as high as SOFR + 1000 basis points.
And now?
Institutions like Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan have already compressed the financing spread to about 150–300 basis points.
The cost has been cut significantly.
More important than "cheaper" behind this is the fact that previously banks feared not SK Hynix's fundamentals, but that all clients were crowded on the same side, with overly concentrated positions, making even the banks' own balance sheets unwilling to take on more risk.
After this round of intense AI stock adjustments, some crowded trades have been cleared, and banks' risk capacity has actually been released again.
Even banks that previously rejected clients are now actively seeking business.
When financing costs drop and leverage channels reopen, the threshold for funds to go long is lowered accordingly.
This does not necessarily mean the stock price will immediately reverse. US stock investment websites believe:
Wall Street's most extreme "crowding risk alert" for SK Hynix is being lifted.
$MU $SNDK #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #Government bond issues resurface
Yesterday, I just commented that Besant's repurchase efforts were insufficient, and today the US Treasury yield has risen again, approaching around 4.6%.
This is the consequence of government intervention, which causes the market to suffer greater backlash, turning short-term problems into long-term structural issues.
Fortunately, most global macro hedge funds are based on Wall Street, so hopefully they won't be so ruthless as to short their own country, hopefully...
Tonight, the US stock, currency, and bond markets are all under pressure. The Nasdaq's support at 26,000 is precarious. I mentioned yesterday that the decline in this crisis might be around 10%, which is near 24,400 by the end of July. Of course, it might not reach that level, but having this psychological expectation will prevent being scared by price pullbacks.
At the same time, there is no need to rush to bottom-fish now; from both time and space perspectives, it's not yet the moment. The situation needs to develop further, with the speech by Walsh on the 28th being a key point.
Gold continues to remain strong. Now Wall Street collectively starts to turn bullish. Citibank's research report indicates a baseline scenario of $5,000, optimistically up to $6,000. I think reaching $5,000 would already be good, and I will take profits.
Last night, Moderna in the US announced the success of the phase 3 trial of the immunotherapy drug Keytruda, significantly reducing cancer recurrence rates. This is good news for humanity. Today, the A-share innovative drug sector surged. I have previously emphasized that innovative drugs are a short-term strong sector with sustained heat, so continue holding.
Meanwhile, the tech sector's momentum has been drained, coupled with bond-related negatives for AI infrastructure, leading to recent pullbacks. Slightly reducing positions or continuing to hold steadily is fine. This round of bond turmoil is expected to end in September.
Bitcoin performed brilliantly yesterday, driven by the crypto industry executives summoned by the Trump supporter and another call to buy. I think this is also a short-term move. The bigger support factor, like gold, comes from the US Treasury issue. Whether Bitcoin can break through 70,000 and subsequently surpass the bull-bear dividing line at 78,000 depends on whether the Clarity Act passes in September.
I continue to emphasize position sizing and risk control. Now gold can account for 10% of a long-term portfolio, and gold ETFs are more suitable for beginners. Silver, due to its weaker financial attributes compared to gold, will only follow gold's rise later, so patience is required.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks. This wave is driven by favorable policies and short squeeze liquidations; its sustainability depends on three factors
Whether ETFs can maintain net inflows, whether the September "CLARITY Act" vote will pass, and whether the Fed's rate cut expectations will materialize.
If all three are fulfilled, the rally can continue; if any one fails, this wave might end here.
Chasing the highs now? Think carefully for yourself. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
Recently, the storage sector has experienced a "expectation trade."
After SanDisk's Investor Day announced long-term growth targets, its stock price surged, and the market began to reprice storage demand in the AI era. The company proposed maintaining mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth over the next few years and improving profit stability through long-term customer agreements.
However, the stock price quickly retreated afterward, dropping more than 9% intraday on August 18. Storage stocks like SK Hynix and Micron also experienced repeated fluctuations.
The AI storage logic is real, but the short-term valuation has already priced in too much expectation.
In the past, the market speculated on "AI needing more computing power," but now it is further focusing on "how AI-generated data is stored."
This is why NAND, HBM, and data center storage have become focal points for capital.
If future AI infrastructure investment continues to expand, storage companies may enter a new profit cycle.
But if the market finds AI capital expenditure growth below expectations, the high-valuation sector may continue to undergo repricing.
For the crypto market, this is also an important signal:
Now, capital is chasing not only BTC and ETH but the entire AI infrastructure chain.
In the next phase, truly strong assets may come from the intersection of "AI + financial liquidity."
The market won't just look at stories; ultimately, it must return to cash flow and growth realization.
$SNDK $SKHY $MU The earnings season these days is quite interesting: a couple of days ago Xiaomi talked about "people, cars, and homes"
Today POPMART submitted its report, and next week it's Nvidia's turn to answer whether the money for AI can keep burning.
At first glance, POPMART's report looks solid, but on a second look, I'm a bit hesitant to chase.
Revenue for the first half of the year was ¥17.17 billion, up 23.8%, but net profit attributable to the parent company only increased by 10.1%.
Revenue is still growing, but profit growth is slowing down. The market can no longer just look at how many blind boxes were sold; it also needs to consider profit margins, inventory turnover, and overseas expansion efficiency.
The most critical change is the cooling off of LABUBU, while Star People grew nearly sixfold.
The good news is that POPMART is not completely tied to a single IP; six IPs generated over ¥1 billion in revenue each, which also proves that its incubation system really has substance; but the bad news is that both Asia-Pacific and the Americas are declining, making the domestic market the main support.
Today, Star People takes over, but that doesn't mean it can replicate another LABUBU tomorrow, nor does it mean overseas markets will automatically recover.
So I think POPMART hasn't ended its growth but has shifted from a "blockbuster market" to an "operational test": watching whether multiple IPs can continuously take over, whether overseas can accelerate again, and whether profits can catch up with revenue.
Next week, Nvidia faces the same situation.
One sells emotional value, the other sells computing power, but in front of high valuations, both have to answer the same question: after the story is told, can profits still be realized.
$POPMART $ETH $BTC #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ I see many friends, like me, were doing well with dual currency trading but suddenly sold off prematurely. However, I think this is not a big problem, really not.
First, let me talk about my test account. I started with $10,100 when Bitcoin was at $64,000. With that amount, I could buy 0.158 BTC. Currently, this amount has grown to $11,385.78. Based on the current Bitcoin price of $71,100, I could buy 0.16 BTC.
In other words, from a BTC perspective, I haven't actually lost money, and it doesn't mean I can't continue with dual currency trading. Of course, the difficulty now is much higher. Previously, I calculated that I could bear a Bitcoin cost below $65,000, but now it's $71,000, and at $65,000 there is almost no profit.
If you want to earn returns, you either hold long-term, like one to two months, but that doesn't align with my investment philosophy. So, don't focus on the price but on the yield. I usually choose a volatility range of 3% to 5%. For example, today I chose a low buy at $69,000.
If the drop exceeds 3%, then I might get filled. I can accept a cost of $69,000, which is equivalent to buying at $63,000 initially, so it's okay. If I don't get filled, then a 46% interest is also good.
In the short term, this is how I plan to proceed. The test account expires tomorrow; today, the one expiring is my personal account.Brothers, in the early hours of August 20th Beijing time, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting were officially released. The result is summed up in one sentence: there are more hawks than expected, and the 9-to-3 split is just the tip of the iceberg. A 9-3 vote with a broader hawkish camp Behind the Vote At the July 28-29 interest rate meeting, the FOMC kept the federal funds rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range for the fifth consecutive time, with 9 votes in favor and 3 against. The three regional Fed chairs who voted against it—Logan in Dallas, Hamack in Cleveland, and Kashkari in Minneapolis—all advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. But the minutes show that the support for rate hikes goes far beyond just these three individuals. The original minutes stated: "Several participants leaned toward raising the target range by 25 basis points for this meeting"—wording usually covers more than three people. Even more notably, Kansas City Fed President Michael Schmid and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem, who have no voting rights, also stated after the meeting that if they had had voting rights back then, they would support rate hikes. This is the most divided vote at the Fed since 2016. Two camps of thought for their reasons: Increase now vs. wait a bit Hawks believe price pressures are spreading across the board and that the committee should take a more restrictive stance. If not increased now, it may be forced into a "series of larger, more costly tightenings" in the future. Doves believe that new data from July to mid-September can provide more clues and reduce uncertainty about the inflation outlook. The minutes described the inflation outlook in four words: "highly uncertain." Participants mentioned the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the transmission of tariffs#Gold returns above $4500, institutional disagreements intensify On August 20, spot gold climbed back above $4500 during intraday trading. It took only 3 days to move from 4430 to 4500. The capital side is also cooperating, with SPDR Gold ETF increasing holdings by 9.41 tons in a single day to 1034.65 tons, and 53 domestic gold-themed funds surpassing 420 billion in scale. This is not retail investors buying; institutions are adding positions.
However, disagreements have started within institutions. UBS sees $5000 in the first half of 2027, while Wells Fargo has lowered its target price for this year and next. When bullish and bearish views diverge, it often indicates the market has reached a critical point.
Several underlying drivers remain. A weaker dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and concerns over fiscal deficits all support gold’s long-term logic. U.S. debt is approaching 40 trillion, with interest expenses continuously rising. Gold’s appeal as the ultimate credit anchor is being repriced.
For BTC, the sustained strength in gold is a positive signal. Both share the logic of easing rate expectations, but gold’s rise is more about long-term capital allocation, while BTC’s rise is more a short-term reflection of liquidity expectations. Gold holding above 4500 supports BTC’s macro narrative.
However, risks of chasing gains at high levels are accumulating. If long-term interest rates rise again or risk appetite continues to recover, gold will face significant short-term correction pressure. Gold has taken the lead; whether BTC can keep up depends on whether next week’s CPI and employment data continue to support the warming of easing expectations. $XAU $BTC $ETH BTC returns to 70000, what is really driving this rally?
BTC has stood above 70000 USD again after nearly three months.
The 24-hour peak increase exceeded 7%, reaching a new high since early June; ETH also strengthened simultaneously, once breaking through 2300 USD.
In the past week, short positions in the market were massively liquidated, totaling over 1.3 billion USD.
I believe this rally is mainly driven by four factors together.
First, short squeeze.
This is the most direct catalyst.
Previously, the market concentrated on shorting for several consecutive days. As BTC broke through key resistance, a large number of shorts were forced to close positions.
Price increases triggered more stop losses, and stop losses further pushed prices up.
Thus forming:
Rise → Short covering → Passive buying → Price continues to rise → More shorts liquidated.
This is a typical short squeeze market.
But it should be noted that the short squeeze is responsible for initiating the rally; what truly determines how far the rally can go is the subsequent spot capital.
Second, regulatory expectations have clearly improved.
Recently, positive changes have appeared in U.S. crypto regulatory policies. The CLARITY Act and the SEC's advancement of the digital asset regulatory framework have led the market to start trading under a new logic:
Crypto assets are gradually moving from "high-risk speculative products" into the U.S. financial regulatory system.
For institutional funds, this increase in policy certainty is very important.
Because what institutions really lack is never money, but a compliant channel to enter the market.
Third, liquidity expectations improved due to the U.S. long-term Treasury repurchase policy.
After the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of Treasury repurchases, market concerns about long-term U.S. bond yields and liquidity have been alleviated temporarily.
For high beta risk assets like BTC, the easing of long-term interest rate pressure itself is a marginal positive.
Fourth, and what I consider the most important—the return of ETF funds.
One of the biggest pressures on BTC previously was the lack of sustained incremental funds during price rebounds.
But recently, spot ETFs have shown significant net inflows again.
This means the market is undergoing a change:
From "short covering driving the rally" gradually transitioning to "spot capital taking over the rally."
If ETF funds can continue to maintain net inflows, then the nature of this rally will change.
It will no longer be just an oversold rebound.
⸻
Of course, risks have not disappeared.
The Federal Reserve still has obvious divisions, and uncertainties remain regarding inflation, employment, and subsequent policy paths.
So what really needs to be observed now is not whether BTC can stand above 70000.
But:
Whether 70000 USD can truly turn from a resistance level into a new support level.
If the following occurs:
Sideways trading above 70000 → Pullback without breaking → Continued ETF inflows → Another volume-driven rise
Then the height of this rally can continue to target 72000–75000 USD, or even further challenge higher areas.
But if after breaking 70000, ETF funds weaken again and the price quickly falls back below 70000, then caution is needed:
This rally is mainly driven by short liquidation rather than a trend reversal.
So the most worth paying attention to now is actually this sentence:
Short liquidation can send BTC to 70000, but only real incremental funds can keep BTC above 70000.
This is also the key to whether this rally can upgrade from a "short squeeze rebound" to a "trend rally." $BTC #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ International Spot Gold (London Gold Spot) Real-time Market Data Analysis as of August 20, 23:02
Current price is $4515 per ounce, with a 24-hour increase of +0.1%. After an early session surge breaking through the 4583 stage high, it has pulled back and fluctuated in the short term, currently in a high-level consolidation phase to digest positions.
Key price levels: First support at 4470, strong support at 4440; short-term resistance at 4583 (intraday high). Upon a valid breakout, the target range above is 4650-4700.
Market capital flow: Yesterday, the US Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchase triggered a sharp rally. After the positive effect was realized, bulls began short-term profit-taking; gold ETFs have seen sustained medium- to long-term accumulation, indicating that the long-term capital layout logic remains unchanged, but short-term speculative funds are starting to diverge. Currently, the crypto market is experiencing a breakout, with some short-term liquidity flowing out from precious metals into the crypto space.
Overall, the medium- to long-term bullish logic for gold still holds, but after short-term overbought conditions, the risk of a volatile pullback increases. The cost-effectiveness of chasing higher positions at elevated levels is relatively low. Going forward, focus will be on changes in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index to judge signals for a new market cycle.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice$BTC $ETH $SOL The most heartbreaking scene in this market rally is not how much BTC has risen, but that when it rose, the once most popular DOGE didn't even touch $0.12. Capital only recognizes BTC; Meme coins are abandoned — this is not an emotional complaint, but the harsh reality unfolding in the market.
Just look at the data to see how extreme the divergence is. $BTC climbed from the low of $60,000 in February this year to above $70,000, with whales increasing holdings by 66,700 coins over 60 days, worth over $4 billion, and addresses holding thousands of coins have been adding for three consecutive weeks; but what about $DOGE? It has been steadily declining from $0.12 last December to around $0.07, spending the entire month of August fluctuating between $0.064 and $0.083, with the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all pressing down overhead, unable even to break the first resistance at $0.078. One is attracting capital, the other is bleeding; same market, two different destinies.
Why has capital suddenly become so "single-minded"? Because the nature of the money entering this round has changed. Institutional funds brought by spot ETFs and long-term buyers with treasury allocation strategies are buying the narrative of "digital gold," compliance, and balance sheet allocation. This type of capital will not buy a dog coin with unlimited issuance priced by social hype. After retail sentiment fades, DOGE loses its only engine — attention. When BTC falls, it falls harder; when BTC rises, it only dares to follow symbolically. High beta characteristics amplify gains in a bull market but become a meat grinder in a zero-sum game. #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue? $BTC Hello everyone, this rally in Bitcoin is extremely strong!
Let's look at the facts: Bitcoin broke through $72,000, reaching a new high since early June, with a cumulative increase of over 10% in two days. In 24 hours, about $3.4 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the network, affecting nearly 190,000 people, with shorts accounting for more than 90%, marking the largest short liquidation wave on record since 2021.
Can it continue? There is evidence for both bulls and bears:
Bullish evidence is real money: Yesterday, the US spot ETF saw a net inflow of $517 million in a single day, the highest since May 4; on-chain, whales have increased their holdings by about 43,000 BTC in the past 60 days. This rally is not just shorts being forced to cover; there is indeed incremental capital entering the spot market.
Bearish risk is overheated leverage: Funding rates have risen to a 20-month high, RSI has entered the overbought zone, and the short squeeze momentum will inevitably weaken after large-scale liquidations; moreover, the CLARITY Act is still stalled in the Senate, so policy benefits are currently only expectations.
My view: This rally looks more like the "start of valuation repair plus structural reversal" rather than a simple rebound episode. The ETF and on-chain spot buying are the scarcest elements in a short squeeze rally, and both have appeared, indicating that there are real buyers willing to take positions above $70,000. But don't chase in the short term: short squeezes come fast and go fast. Next, watch for two confirmation signals: whether the $70,250 support holds on a pullback, and whether a volume breakout above $73,200 can challenge the $75,000–$77,400 range. If support holds, this rally confirms a bear-to-bull transition; if not, it remains a range-bound market. $BTC broke through 72000, rising 11.8% in 24 hours, with a total liquidation of $2.99 billion across the network, shorts were swept away in one wave. This is not a mild rebound; it is a self-reinforcing short squeeze. Every time the price surges to a new level, more shorts get liquidated, and the buying from these liquidations pushes the price higher until all the most stubborn shorts are completely cleared out.
There are three core drivers. The Treasury Department expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to plunge sharply from 5.33% to 5.19%, loosening the tightest constraint on BTC from long-term interest rates. Short positions are too full, and the market has been consolidating with low volatility for too long. Once the price breaks a key level, all shorts are on the same boat. ETFs have continuous net inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing over $200 million inflow in a single day, indicating allocation funds are entering.
72000 is the new key level; holding above it requires sustained spot trading and ETF capital relay. If incremental funds continue to enter, the short squeeze may shift into a trend-driven rally. If spot support is insufficient, high-level pullbacks and renewed leverage buildup will amplify volatility. The cost-performance of chasing highs is not favorable; wait for a pullback to stabilize around 66500 to 67000 before considering further moves. $BTC $ETH #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Looking at the three platform tokens BNB, OKB, and HYPE together, they no longer follow the same playstyle.
$BNB is the most stable. After all, Binance is the world's largest exchange, and the entire ecosystem of BNB Chain and DeFi supports it. Its biggest advantage is that it has already established itself, but the downside is obvious: the market cap is large, so it's not easy to replicate the explosive growth it had before.
$OKB is what I've been paying more attention to recently. Last year, they directly cut the supply to 21 million tokens, permanently fixed. X Layer has started to increase gas and staking demand for OKB. The small market cap is its biggest advantage, but the problem lies in whether X Layer and Exchange OS can truly build the ecosystem. That remains to be seen.
$HYPE is the one I find most interesting.
HYPE didn't launch the token first and then tell the story; the product and trading volume have already taken off, and protocol revenue can continuously buy back HYPE. Recently, with the U.S. compliance line, the market price jumped directly from around 62 to over 70.
So here’s how I see these three:
BNB: highest certainty.
OKB: most aggressive supply, highly flexible.
HYPE: product and revenue are the most promising, with the greatest potential.
I currently hold a bit of all three.
If you want stability, look at BNB; if you want to bet on platform tokens being revalued, look at OKB; if you want to find the next phase of explosive growth, look at HYPE.
Especially HYPE, which has real trading volume, real revenue, and can continuously buy back tokens.The Federal Reserve is starting to "argue" internally, and the market's real concern is not about rate hikes, but uncertainty.
The July FOMC meeting minutes released an important signal: divisions within the Federal Reserve are widening.
Although the final vote was 9 to 3 to maintain rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range, officials Logan, Harker, and Kashkari clearly supported a 25 basis point hike, believing inflationary pressures have not fully subsided.
The problem is, the market is looking at "past meetings" but trading on "future data."
July CPI continued to cool, and weakening employment data have clearly reduced the rationale for an immediate rate hike in September. Currently, the market is more focused on whether the Federal Reserve will be forced back onto a hawkish path by inflation.
For the crypto market, the focus is not on a single rate hike, but on liquidity expectations.
If inflation continues to decline in the future and the Federal Reserve signals a dovish shift, the dollar will weaken, risk appetite will rise, and BTC and high-valuation assets may see a new round of capital inflows.
However, if AI infrastructure investment overheats, U.S. stock valuation risks expand, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the market may reprice risk.
The biggest variable in the market now is not "whether there will be a rate hike in September," but whether the Federal Reserve can still control market expectations for future policy.
Next, pay attention to two data points:
① Whether U.S. inflation continues to decline
② Whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC $ETH $SOL The release of the Federal Reserve minutes could be a turning point that determines the short-term volatility of asset markets. How much of the interest rate path has the market already priced in, and to what extent is the internal disagreement yet to be reflected? The Fed minutes are scheduled to be released at 2 AM (Vietnam time), and the key point is not the rate decision itself but the level of dissent among the members. The market has already priced in a significant possibility of 1 to 2 rate cuts within the year. Therefore, the variable to watch in this minutes release is not so much whether the timing of the cuts is brought forward, but how much the disagreement over policy direction among the members becomes apparent. Depending on the intensity of this disagreement, expectations for dollar liquidity will be reshaped, which will be transmitted at different speeds to gold, oil, and Bitcoin. - If dovish signals strengthen: downward pressure on the dollar will increase, gold will receive demand both as a safe haven asset and as a hedge against currency depreciation. Oil demand outlook will be partially supported by improved growth expectations, and Bitcoin, as a representative risk asset that follows expectations of dollar liquidity easing, could gain momentum for a rebound. However, this