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U.S. CLARITY Act, a milestone legislation in the crypto industry
Market rumors suggest the bill is about to be submitted for Trump's signature, but there is still contention in the Senate, so it cannot be considered 100% certain to pass and remains uncertain. If officially enacted, it will reshape the U.S. crypto regulatory landscape:
1. Clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC; BTC and ETH are expected to be classified as digital commodities under CFTC jurisdiction, removing them from the securities regulatory framework.
2. Open-source DeFi developers will receive safe harbor protections, recognizing user self-custody wallets, and non-custodial DeFi protocols may be exempt from certain intermediary registration obligations.
3. Open pathways for traditional institutions to enter the market; banks and brokerages can apply for relevant licenses, paving the way for large-scale institutional capital inflows.
From a market perspective, the recent BTC rally has largely priced in optimistic expectations for the bill's passage. It is important to note: if the Senate review falls short of expectations, there is a risk of a reversal and pullback in the market.
$BTC#BTC accelerating upward, can the funds continue to follow through? This round of BTC price surge breakthrough
is mainly driven by three core forces simultaneously.
First, the U.S. Treasury plans to expand long-term Treasury repurchases,
which the market interprets as a marginal improvement in liquidity, weakening the dollar index, benefiting risk assets collectively.
Second, on August 19, the U.S. spot ETF net inflow was about $517 million,
with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $285 million in spot funds, clearly indicating a capital inflow.
Third, in the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidations exceeded $3.2 billion,
a large number of short positions were continuously swept out, creating a typical short squeeze scenario. $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
After SanDisk released its long-term growth targets at Investor Day, its stock price surged briefly but then retreated from the highs, opening down over 9% on August 18. Although it rebounded alongside SK Hynix, Micron, and others on the 19th, it closed weaker again, with SanDisk down about 3.5%, and Western Digital and Seagate falling even more. Short-term funds are frequently rotating within the sector, reflecting the market's deep tension over the sustainability of AI storage demand, the execution of long-term customer agreements, and current valuation levels.
Bank of America pointed out that SanDisk's long-term growth and margin targets can provide valuation references for peers like Micron, but achieving them heavily depends on NAND price trends, the pace of customer agreement implementation, and whether AI server demand can truly support profit margins. In other words, the story is very attractive, but the financials need to be verified.
What is even more intriguing is the behavior of capital—revenues are still growing, yet capital is retreating first. The surge in long-term interest rates has become an important macro backdrop suppressing AI assets, with high-valuation sectors showing significantly increased sensitivity to interest rates. Storage stocks are currently not a simple fundamental bull-bear battle but a timing mismatch between "long-term vision" and "short-term interest rates/inventory/orders."
Current key points of contention:
· AI storage is a structural growth driver, but can it offset the cyclical downturn in consumer NAND?
· Long-term agreements lock in prices, but will customers renegotiate at the turning point of the cycle?
· The valuation anchor is shifting from DRAM/NAND cycle PE to growth premium, requiring continuous quarterly report validation. Bitcoin is indeed strong; last time I said it would break the 70,000 level, and it happened within minutes. This time I said it would reach the 75,000~78,000 target zone, and it has just about arrived. At this point, guessing the top or looking for reasons behind the rise is pointless. Shorting still requires patience; you can't be reckless. Many people might be afraid of the height and hesitant to get in on the long side, so overcoming the fear of missing out is key. If you didn't participate, then don't; observing and learning isn't a bad thing.
Sometimes simple math is the most straightforward approach. This was proven effective when calculating SpaceX's stock price tops and bottoms before. 6.25×1.2=7.5, meaning even 5x leverage has already been liquidated. If 3x leverage gets liquidated, the target price would be above 83,000, and 83,000 is just slightly above the previous high of 82,800, which confirms the 57,000 bottom.
As I said yesterday, from a chip perspective, there is actually little resistance below 80,000. Whether the final price reaches that, I don't know; we'll see as it goes. After all, once Bitcoin starts moving, the pace will be very fast $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #$BTC has rebounded to around $73.1K, and $ETH has also climbed near $2.31K, with market risk appetite clearly warming up. This round of gains is not just a technical rebound: the U.S. Treasury has expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, fueling market expectations for improved liquidity; meanwhile, the U.S. stock spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $517M, one of the strongest capital inflows in months, further strengthening BTC's upward momentum. However, issues remain—has capital truly started to spread to altcoins? Although volatile tokens like $BEAT, $BICO, $KAITO, $LAB, and $SNDK have rebounded, more significant volume and sustained buying are still needed to confirm a trend reversal. My judgment is simple: 🟠 BTC: leading strongly, watch if $72K–$70K can turn into new support 🔵 ETH: back above $2.3K, continue to observe if it can keep outperforming BTC 🟣 Altcoins: not yet time to define a full Altseason 🟢 Key indicator: whether BTC funds are starting to flow into ETH, SOL, and small-to-mid cap tokens A true altcoin season isn’t just a few coins suddenly surging; it’s characterized by sustained market volume expansion, broad capital rotation, and more altcoins forming higher lows and higher highs. So right now, the priority isn’t chasing gains but waiting for confirmation of capital diffusion. BTC strengthening first ≠ Altseason GalaChain has once again exposed a serious security vulnerability. On-chain monitoring shows that 5 core addresses suddenly transferred about 1.99 billion GALA (equivalent to approximately $2.9 million) and some other tokens to new wallets, and quickly exchanged them for ETH via cross-chain bridges within about an hour. Controversially, nearly 82% of the transferred GALA (about 1.639 billion tokens) came directly from wallets associated with Gala CEO and co-founder Eric Schiermeyer. After the incident, Gala urgently suspended the Ethereum and Solana cross-chain bridges, which remain non-operational. More sensitive to the market than a simple code vulnerability is the identity of the affected addresses. As the project CEO, Eric Schiermeyer's associated wallets hold massive token amounts, symbolizing the core trust of the ecosystem. After the incident, Gala took the most direct defensive measure—cutting off the cross-chain bridges between Ethereum and Solana. Although this "physical disconnection" prevented further asset outflows, it also locked ordinary users' cross-chain assets, casting doubt on the daily operation of the entire ecosystem. Code vulnerabilities can be quickly fixed with technical patches, but failures in mechanism design and executive key security are difficult to resolve with unilateral emergency shutdowns. Currently, the Gala team has not provided a complete response regarding detailed investigation, accountability, or remediation plans for the affected assets. Regarding G If you can't beat them, join them!
How to play this market?
I don't understand it either!
Go long!
Chase the longs!
Chase the dragon!
Foolish play!
Even the whales have been liquidated!
To be more precise,
it's the $222 million worth of BTC and ETH short positions all stopped out.
Lost $6.283 million in one trade.
Yesterday's long positions earned $20 million.
Today's shorts gave back $6.28 million.
Net profit still $13.72 million.
The whales have been forced by the market to admit they were wrong.
What technical analysis can a small retail trader like me study?
I directly chased 78 ETH around 2357.
100x leverage.
Made $69 as soon as I entered.
Don't ask about the logic.
The logic is: if you can't beat the dog whales,
then just ride their train.
——
$ETH is still hovering around 2350 to 2370.
Trading volume about $36.8 billion.
There is some news too.
The U.S. is expanding long-term Treasury repurchases.
Yields and the dollar are both falling.
Combined with rising regulatory expectations,
it directly ignited risk assets.
ETH spot ETFs had continuous net inflows from the 17th to the 19th,
totaling about $289 million over three days.
On the 20th, another $10.3 million flowed in so far.
This wave really has real money following.
It's not just dog whales forcibly pumping.
But open interest on contracts has also returned to 13.2 million ETH.
Short-term increase of 270,000 ETH again.
This shows leverage is building up again.
2300 is holding.
Above that, it can continue to test 2400 to 2430.
If 2300 breaks,
chasing the dragon will immediately turn into bag holding.
The most exciting part is,
my liquidation price is at 2279,
only about 3% away from now.
Mouth shouting chase the dragon,
palms are already sweating.
——
$BEAT I still say the same thing.
The chart looks like dog whales are continuously unloading.
Now only around 0.11 left.
Down about 24% in 24 hours.
Down over 85% in 7 days.
Market cap only about $38 million.
But daily volume is over $28 million.
Such high turnover.
Price keeps hugging the lows.
This doesn't look like a scramble to accumulate.
More like chips changing hands on one side,
while being dumped downward on the other.
21.25 million tokens unlocked on August 1st.
11.25 million more waiting to unlock on September 1st.
You think this is the bottom?
Dog whales tell you there's a basement below.
——
$SNDK on the other hand can be slowly accumulated.
Current price around $1600.
Up about 2% in one day.
Q4 revenue $8.965 billion,
up 51% quarter-over-quarter.
Full-year data center business up 437%.
Company also added $14 billion in buybacks.
This fundamental is real.
Not just pumped by hype.
But this stock's volatility is crazy.
I'm preparing to hold some base position first.
I no longer study dog whales.
If you can't beat them,
just ride their train.
Just afraid that as soon as I get on,
it suddenly reaches the station.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX Let me put my point here first: The most dangerous place right now is where the price rises too fast and the shorts are squeezed out completely. In the past two days, Bitcoin surged from over 60,000 to break through 72,000 USD, continuously squeezing shorts, forcing a large number of shorts to stop loss and buy back, resulting in an extremely fierce forced buying in the market. Here's the problem: The shorts have been almost completely liquidated, so who will continue to take the chips next? This is what I am truly worried about. The fuel for this round of rally partly comes from: ① Short liquidations ② FOMO funds chasing the rally ③ ETF capital inflows ④ The U.S. Treasury increasing long-term bond repurchases to ease yield pressure ⑤ The Trump administration continuously releasing positive policy signals for the crypto market. These factors combined can indeed push BTC up quickly. But short squeezes are not perpetual motion machines. Once the shorts are cleared, the short squeeze rally will naturally lose its strongest marginal buying power. What really makes me cautious is the next step. If BTC continues to surge, market sentiment will quickly shift from "breaking even" to "crazy chasing the rally." High-volatility assets like ETH, XRP, SOL, DOGE, HYPE, and PEPE will also start rotating. Then you will find: Everyone starts to think the bull market is back. At this point, the truly dangerous thing appears — leverage. When prices are rising, no one thinks leverage is dangerous. Because prices rise every day and unrealized profits keep expanding, many people can't help but add positions. But as soon as BTC suddenly pulls back 5%–8% from a high, the first batch of highly leveraged funds will start to stop loss. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Performance Outlook (Based on Market Structure and Analyst Views Around August 21, 2026)
The current market has just experienced a rapid rebound driven jointly by a short squeeze, the U.S. Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, the Trump White House crypto summit (promoting the CLARITY Act), and ETF capital inflows. BTC broke through the previous six-week consolidation range, approaching or touching around $75,000; ETH performed even stronger, with a single-day gain previously close to 20%. Sentiment has quickly shifted from fear to greed (Fear & Greed Index around 69-72).
Bitcoin (BTC) Short-Term Key Levels and Scenarios
Current approximate range: about $74,000–$75,000.
• Bullish scenario (more optimistic):
If BTC can hold the breakout and close daily above $72,000–$73,000, the next target generally points to $73,000–$76,000, with some analysts targeting the $75,000–$80,000 area.
Under stronger momentum, some mention further testing higher resistance (such as near active investor cost basis around $75,800).
Drivers: continued ETF net inflows, improved liquidity, momentum continuation after short liquidations.
• Consolidation/Correction scenario (more likely short term):
After a rapid rise, RSI has entered overbought territory, so short-term oscillation or correction to digest gains is possible.
Key supports: $70,000–$71,000 (psychological level and recent breakout), $68,000–$69,000 (previous resistance turned support).
If it breaks below $67,000–$68,000, a retest of $65,000–$66,000 range is possible.
• Risk scenario: If macro data (such as employment, PMI) deteriorate or regulatory expectations fail, a deeper correction may occur, but the overall structure has clearly improved currently.
Technically, breaking above long-term moving averages (such as near the 200-day EMA) is a positive signal, but whether volume and subsequent spot buying can replace "short covering" is key.
Ethereum (ETH) Short-Term Key Levels and Scenarios
Current approximate range: around $2,350.
• Bullish scenario:
ETH has outperformed BTC; the ETH/BTC ratio shows a potential bottom reversal structure (some analyses suggest about 30%-40% relative upside, targeting around 0.040–0.042 BTC).
If momentum continues, short-term targets could be $2,400–$2,500 or even higher (depending on BTC’s movement).
Institutional interest in ETH allocation has recently increased significantly (Q2 holdings data and ETF inflows improved).
• Consolidation scenario:
After a rapid surge, oscillation to digest gains is also possible. Support levels to watch are $2,200–$2,250, with lower support near $2,100.
ETH’s advantages lie in DeFi, Layer 2 ecosystems, institutional allocation bias, and potential regulatory tailwinds, showing relative strength over BTC recently.
Common Influencing Factors and Time Window
Bullish factors:
• U.S. Treasury liquidity support + decline in long-term rates → risk appetite recovery.
• Improved regulatory expectations (progress on CLARITY Act, discussions on compliant paths like Hyperliquid).
• ETF capital inflows and increased institutional holdings.
• Large short positions have been cleared, reducing short-term selling pressure.
Potential risks:
• Profit-taking after short-term overbought conditions.
• Jackson Hole central bank symposium (late August) and subsequent macro data may trigger volatility.
• If ETF inflows slow or spot buying is insufficient, upward sustainability will be challenged.
• Seasonal factors (August historically not the strongest month).
Mid-term perspective (next few weeks to quarters):
Most technical analyses believe this breakout has improved the structure; if key supports hold and capital continues flowing in, higher range-bound oscillation or further upside is possible. However, the market is more institutionalized now, so volatility may be lower than past cycles, reducing the probability of sharp one-sided surges or crashes.
Summary Judgment
• Short term (days to 1-2 weeks): High probability of initial consolidation to digest overbought conditions; direction depends on whether the breakout level holds. BTC’s priority is to stabilize above $70,000, while ETH may show better relative resilience.
• Mid term: Bullish structure dominates but requires confirmation of capital and macro alignment. Targets reference $75,000–$80,000 (BTC) and stronger relative performance (ETH).$#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
The July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve show a 9-3 vote, with ongoing disagreements among officials about rate hikes.
The Federal Reserve's July FOMC minutes have been officially released. The interest rate decision vote was 9 in favor of keeping rates unchanged and 3 against. Officials Logan, Harker, and Kashkari advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike, highlighting policy divisions. The meeting ultimately kept the federal funds rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range.
The minutes reveal signals of a tug-of-war: most officials agreed on pausing rate hikes, but several reserved the option to tighten policy further, stating that if inflation falls short of expectations, the Fed does not rule out additional hikes.
Recent macro data has introduced constraints: July CPI cooled down, and employment data weakened simultaneously, reducing the immediate need for a rate hike. According to CME tracking data, the market currently prices about a 67% probability of rates remaining unchanged in September.
Notably, the minutes added new key risk warnings, specifically naming the AI infrastructure financing boom, AI stock valuation bubbles, and sharp volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds as potential triggers for financial stability risks.
For risk assets like crypto and U.S. stocks, the core of the current tug-of-war is no longer just whether to hike rates in September. Inflation resilience, the trajectory of long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and valuation correction pressure in the AI sector are three major variables continuously reshaping asset pricing logic, potentially amplifying market volatility further. $CORE Investment Research Analysis: Is BTCFi an Undervalued Asset in the Next Round of Capital Rotation, or Just Another Public Chain Bubble? 1. Core Viewpoint: $CORE is not an ordinary public chain, but a bet on the next phase of asset efficiency revolution for BTC. In recent years, the crypto market has gone through several distinct phases: In 2020, the market traded on the digital gold narrative of $BTC. In 2021, capital chased smart contract public chains, with Layer1s like $ETH, $SOL, and $AVAX booming. From 2022 to 2023, the market entered infrastructure competition, focusing on Rollups, modularity, and public chain performance. And from 2024 to 2026, a new direction is taking shape: how to transform $BTC from a passive store-of-value asset into a financial infrastructure that can generate yield, participate in DeFi, and unlock liquidity. This is BTCFi. The biggest misconception in the market currently is that many investors think: "Bitcoin ecosystem = Ordinals + inscriptions + Meme." But what the real big money focuses on is not short-term speculation, but: what kind of financial market will emerge if over a trillion dollars worth of $BTC assets worldwide enter DeFi? This is exactly the biggest investment logic behind $CORE. Core DAO is essentially competing for a position: to become an important bridge connecting $BTC assets with the smart contract world.A notable detail is that Ethereum's market capitalization is $283.89 billion
which has significantly shrunk from $437 billion in July 2025, dropping its ranking from 29th to 72nd among global assets.
In contrast, Bitcoin's decline is more restrained, further confirming the current structural trend of funds concentrating in Bitcoin rather than a general recovery across the entire crypto market.#BTC accelerating the rally, can the funds continue to take over? Folks, this surge in BTC is really fast.
OKX's on-platform BTC spot price has already surged above $75,000, with nearly $3 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours. Remember a few days ago it was hovering around $65,000, now it’s directly hit $75,000. This bullish candle is truly a pile of short-sellers' corpses.
However, I feel this rally is a bit too aggressive. After the shorts are fully liquidated, the market will depend on whether spot buying can hold. Nearly $3 billion liquidated in 24 hours indicates a large part of this rally’s momentum comes from shorts capitulating, not from active buying pushing the price up. There are two signals to watch closely next.
The first is ETF funds. On August 19, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of about $706 million, with $517 million of that being real incremental inflow for BTC. Whether this number can continue to grow will determine if this rally is a short squeeze or the start of a true major trend. If ETF inflows can maintain above $500 million in the coming days, it means institutions are genuinely increasing positions, not just short-term arbitrage.
The second is stablecoin inflows. Trading volume is expanding in this rally, but without sufficient incremental capital entering, a high-level consolidation will likely trigger profit-taking. As long as USDT circulation continues to rise, it indicates off-exchange funds are entering, providing a foundation for the trend to continue. $BTC $ETH $SOL Bitcoin's sudden surge is not driven by a single piece of news, but by three forces working together:
1️⃣ Shorts are being squeezed and forced to cover
In the past few months, Bitcoin dropped from $126,000 to $58,000, with every rebound basically pushed back down. During the decline, the market collectively shorted on rallies, and short positions have been heavily crowded. Once the price breaks upward, short liquidations force buying, creating a "rise → liquidation → further rise" cycle that directly propels the market.
2️⃣ U.S. Treasury injects liquidity
Starting September 9, the long-term Treasury repo limit was raised from $2 billion to $4 billion, suppressing U.S. bond yields and weakening the dollar. Once liquidity loosens, risk asset valuations begin to recover.
3️⃣ U.S. crypto policy sentiment is highly positive
Trump met with executives from multiple crypto companies, expressing intentions to make the U.S. a global digital asset hub and mentioning consideration of government increasing Bitcoin holdings. Regulatory friendliness expectations have directly ignited market sentiment.
However, signals are just signals; actual legislation and policies still need to be implemented. Emotion-driven market fluctuations will be especially volatile, so be cautious of risks.
$BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ In-depth Review: Four Core Reasons Behind This Round of BTC's Violent Surge
$BTC $BTC
The long-dormant narrow consolidation has completely ended, with BTC rising over 15% in two days, firmly holding above $72,000, hitting a two-month high. Ethereum surged 20% in two days. This surge is not short-term speculation but a convergence of four major factors: regulatory turning point + macro liquidity shift + epic short squeeze + early institutional positioning, releasing long-accumulated bullish momentum all at once. Below is a detailed breakdown of the fundamental reasons:
1. Regulatory policy has fully reached a turning point, removing the biggest bearish factor that suppressed the market for over a year (core emotional catalyst)
US regulation has officially shifted from "comprehensive crackdown and enforcement-style regulation" to rule-based compliance guidance, with a series of favorable policies landing intensively, completely reversing market pessimism:
1. High-level White House industry talks
Former President Trump personally met with top executives from Coinbase, Kraken, Ripple, and other leading crypto companies at the White House, publicly urging Congress to accelerate the passage of the "CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act," which aims to clarify crypto asset attributes and delineate SEC and CFTC regulatory responsibilities, ending the long-standing regulatory gray area. He also expressed consideration of policy suggestions for US institutions to allocate Bitcoin, directly dispelling market fears of blanket policy crackdowns.
2. SEC's major new regulations launched, opening a green channel for compliant industry financing
The US SEC introduced a crypto asset registration exemption proposal, setting two tiers of financing exemption thresholds for early-stage projects, with accompanying token safe harbor provisions. Small and medium projects can issue tokens and raise funds compliantly without going through cumbersome securities registration processes, thoroughly improving the industry's survival environment and quickly restoring confidence in industry investment and financing.
3. Stablecoin regulatory timeline finalized
The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced that federal-level stablecoin regulatory rules will be implemented before November, with crypto bank license approvals opening next year. The expectation of stablecoin system compliance is greatly increased, laying a solid foundation for capital circulation in the entire crypto market.
2. US Treasury bond liquidity reaches a marginal easing turning point, weakening the dollar, directly restoring risk asset valuations (macro fundamental support)
The hardest macro driver behind this rally comes from the US Treasury's bond market intervention policy:
The US Treasury announced that the repurchase scale of long-term US bonds with maturities of 10 to 30 years will double, with the single operation cap raised from $2 billion to $4 billion, effective in September. Upon the announcement, long-term bond yields quickly plunged, and the dollar index sharply weakened to a three-month low.
Key logic:
1. In previous months, US bond yields continuously surged to multi-year highs, with risk-free investment returns remaining high, causing global funds to flock to US bonds and withdraw from high-risk assets like BTC and US tech stocks;
2. The decline in long-term bond yields significantly lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, prompting global hot money to flow back into risk assets, directly benefiting the crypto market with liquidity recovery dividends.
3. Crowded shorts triggered a concentrated stampede, staging the largest short squeeze since 2021 (direct trigger for short-term surge)
During the six-week oscillation between $61,500 and $65,000, the market consensus was bearish, with massive leveraged short positions accumulated in the futures market, laying explosive momentum for this rally:
1. After the price broke through key resistance levels, shorts triggered a chain of forced liquidations, with a total of $3.34 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, including $3.07 billion in short liquidations. Over $1 billion in shorts were closed within one hour, creating a positive feedback loop of "price rise → short stop-loss buybacks → further price increase → more short liquidations," forcibly turning the consolidation into a one-sided rally;
2. The market fear and greed index surged from a low range directly to 62 (greed zone), with sentiment rapidly shifting from extreme caution to chasing gains, further amplifying the rally.
4. Institutions quietly accumulated at low levels early on, spot buying laid the foundation for the rally
This surge is not a temporary pump by speculative traders. Long before the rally started, whales and institutional funds had completed accumulation at low levels:
On-chain data shows that at the bottom of this consolidation, institutional whales net increased holdings by over 43,000 BTC; OTC trading volume surged 257% month-over-month, and funds backed by listed companies continuously bought in batches at the key $60,000 support level to lock in positions.
Spot holdings are locked, circulating supply reduced, combined with subsequent futures short squeeze momentum, allowing a small amount of capital to leverage large price gains, greatly reducing resistance to the rally.
Additional key reminders (for rational reference in the future):
1. The first phase of this rally was mainly driven by short covering. With many crowded shorts cleared, whether the rally can continue depends on whether new spot funds and ETF capital can take over;
2. The bullishness is based on policy expectations. If the CLARITY Act's progress in Congress falls short of expectations or US bond yields rebound again, the market will likely face profit-taking and correction. Avoid blindly chasing highs.
Risk Warning: The above is only an analysis of market news and does not constitute any investment or trading advice.#海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认
I have been closely watching the recent shareholder return trends in the South Korean semiconductor sector.
SK Hynix's major share buyback has finally been implemented, officially announced to take place from August 20 to November 19, repurchasing a total of 24.07 million shares, accounting for 3.3% of the total share capital. The most critical point is that these repurchased shares will be fully canceled after completion, not retained as treasury stock, which is a solid positive. Based on the reference price, the total scale reaches 40 trillion KRW, marking one of the largest recent returns in the memory sector, directly increasing equity per share, and is a core driver behind the recent strengthening of Hynix's stock price.
In contrast, Samsung Electronics is still in a phase of expectation and speculation. According to the current 2024-2026 shareholder return policy, it maintains a regular dividend of 9.8 trillion KRW annually, while also returning 50% of the cumulative free cash flow over three years to shareholders. With AI-driven high demand continuing to push up memory prices, Samsung's own cash flow is steadily improving. Brokers and Korean media have generally started to speculate that Samsung might launch a new shareholder return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW.
However, Samsung's official stance remains conservative, only responding that buyback matters are still under internal review. Neither the specific scale nor the execution timing of the buyback has been finalized, and everything currently remains at the level of market speculation. Let's talk about SanDisk's counter-trend rise today. It's not an isolated stock rally; it's the entire storage sector independently recovering amid the broader market decline.
The FOMC minutes were hawkish, but the market has basically priced that in. The Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases has suppressed long-end yields, giving semiconductors a breather.
The deeper logic remains unchanged: the pricing power logic of AI storage still holds. Micron's earnings confirmed the industry's prosperity, and SNDK, as the NAND leader, naturally follows the recovery.
However, short-term volatility won't be small; there are many trapped positions from the drop below 1800, so don't chase the highs. #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认 $SNDK #BTC acceleration rally, can the funds continue to take over?
$BTC Since August 19, Bitcoin has rapidly surged from the $64,000 range, breaking above $69,000 intraday, with a single-day increase of over 7%. On August 20, it further broke through $71,000, rising more than 10% in 24 hours. As of August 21, Bitcoin has strongly surpassed $72,000.
The core driving force of this rally is a short squeeze. Bitcoin has long been fluctuating around $60,000, with a large number of leveraged short positions accumulated in the derivatives market. When the price breaks through a key liquidation dense area upward, a large number of short positions trigger forced liquidations, and short covering forms a chain of buy orders, creating a positive feedback loop of "the more it rises, the more explosive it gets, and the more explosive it gets, the more it rises." In the past 24 hours, a total of 184,821 people worldwide were liquidated, with a record total liquidation amount of $3.264 billion.
Multiple external catalysts have jointly triggered this rally: the US SEC disclosed a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, the White House held a crypto industry summit; the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase scale, pushing long-end interest rates down; funds previously flowing into the AI sector have shown signs of returning.
Can the funds continue to take over next?
Can ETF funds shift from "replenishment inflows" to "sustained inflows"—this is the most direct reflection of spot buying;
Can the open interest of perpetual contracts increase again—this represents whether new leveraged longs are willing to enter the market;
The options market structure around $70,000 may amplify short-term volatility, and market makers' hedging behavior may further boost or suppress the price.#海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认
I have been closely following the recent shareholder return trends in the South Korean semiconductor sector. SK Hynix's large-scale buyback has finally been implemented, while Samsung's remains undecided. The expectation gap here is worth pondering.
SK Hynix officially announced its buyback plan, with an execution period from August 20 to November 19, repurchasing 24.07 million common shares, accounting for 3.3% of the total shares. After completion, all repurchased shares will be canceled. Based on the announced reference price, the total scale is about 40 trillion KRW. The direct cancellation rather than holding as treasury stock effectively reduces the share capital and boosts earnings per share, showing full sincerity.
Looking at Samsung Electronics, the current 2024-2026 shareholder return policy includes a fixed annual dividend of 9.8 trillion KRW, plus returning 50% of the cumulative free cash flow over three years to shareholders. With AI memory market conditions improving, company cash flow has significantly improved. Korean media and brokers speculate that Samsung might launch a shareholder return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW. However, Samsung's official stance is very cautious; the buyback is still under study, with timing and scale undecided.
Here lies a core contradiction: for South Korean memory chip stocks to continue upward revaluation, relying solely on buybacks and dividends is not enough. The company's cash flow must support two major tasks simultaneously: on one hand, the capital expenditure for continuous expansion required in the AI era; on the other, shareholder returns to investors. The funds are limited, and these two demands are inversely related.BTC strongly stands near $72,000, and DOGE is also retesting the $0.08 area. The biggest takeaway from this rally is not catching the absolute bottom, but not exiting early during the consolidation phase. My current strategy: 🟠 BTC long position with a cost basis around $63,180, current price about $72,600, unrealized profit around $2,900, leverage 15X. Holding all the way to now, the protective stop loss has been moved up to $69,800. The next key resistance is seen at $74,500–$75,000. 🐶 DOGE long position with a cost basis around $0.0726, current price about $0.0812, unrealized profit around $2,700, leverage 15X. DOGE has not lagged behind this time; short-term focus remains on the $0.083–$0.085 range. Currently, the total unrealized profit is about $5,600+. This round of rally is not just driven by sentiment. On August 20, BTC once broke through $70,000, with an intraday high near $73,000; the expansion of the US long-term Treasury repurchase program, yield declines, and market expectations for clearer crypto regulations have all been important catalysts for the risk asset rebound. Additionally, over $2.7B in short positions were liquidated in a single day, which clearly amplified the speed of this rally. Therefore, I will not blindly chase longs just because of the rapid rise. 📌 My plan: BTC: continue holding, move stop loss up to near $70K; if effectivelySisters!
I'm back in ETH again!
This time I went straight in with 5 positions!
$ETH, entered at 2,357, going long, 3x leverage, took 5 positions right away!
Do you know why I'm so aggressive?
ETH pushed from 2,220 all the way to 2,380, up 25% in 7 days, 21% in 30 days.
MA5 crossed above MA10 and MA20 at 2,024, price is above all short-term moving averages, MACD golden cross expanding, daily bullish trend confirmed.
24-hour volume is 5.46 million coins, capital is continuously flowing in. This kind of trend, if you miss it, you really miss out.
But what gives me the most confidence? Previously BICO earned 370%, SNDK also profited and exited, so the account has a profit cushion.
Before, I would stubbornly hold when losing, now I dare to push when winning.
5 positions sound like a lot, but stop loss is set at 2,200, total loss is controllable.
The risk-reward ratio is favorable: if wrong, loss is less than 1 point; if right, aiming for 2,500.
The last SNDK short trade earned over 1 point, not much, but it helped me regain my rhythm.
Now ETH is here, the account is rotating, time to act when it's time.
Stop loss at 2,200, target 2,500. Using BICO profits as fuel for ETH. Just go for it!
$BTC $SNDK
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX
The leader has something to say
SpaceX's IPO record has only lasted two months before being pushed down by Anthropic.
According to Bloomberg, Anthropic is expected to publicly submit IPO documents as early as the end of August. The fundraising scale is at least expected to match SpaceX's record of $75 billion, potentially reaching $86.2 billion including the overallotment option.
This company confidentially submitted the S-1 draft to the SEC on June 1 and is expected to officially list in October.
Explosive revenue, but losses are also exploding
Anthropic's preliminary Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of more than 14 times. Q1 was only $4.73 billion, doubling quarter-over-quarter. As of the end of July, the annualized recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed $65 billion, a sevenfold increase from $9 billion at the end of 2025.
On the other hand, the net loss for the full year 2025 is close to $42 billion, about four times the $8.3 billion loss in 2024.
Adjusted operating profit turned positive in Q2, which is good news. But under GAAP, net profit has not yet been achieved. Revenue growth and loss expansion are racing against each other.
Valuation target of $2 trillion, how to calculate price-to-sales ratio
The latest private funding round valued the company at $965 billion. Some investors are already discussing an IPO valuation exceeding $2 trillion. Internal company forecasts project revenue reaching $190 to $200 billion by 2028.
Based on $65 billion ARR, a $2 trillion valuation corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of about 30 times, the upper limit for high-growth SaaS companies.
Impact on the crypto market
CoinDesk has previously mentioned that SpaceX and Anthropic, the two largest IPOs in history, will continue to draw liquidity from broader markets including crypto. The most active venture capital in the market is limited, and Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are simultaneously absorbing liquidity, which takes incremental funds away from the crypto market. The price of Bitcoin dropped from 75,000 and has been fluctuating around 72,000, which is related to this context.
From another perspective, if Anthropic successfully lists with a $2 trillion valuation, it will further confirm the capital value of the AI sector. The larger the financing scale for AI infrastructure, the stronger the demand for computing power, energy, and storage, which is not bad for the crypto infrastructure layer in the long term.
Trading strategy
After the Bitcoin short positions were liquidated, I have been out of the market, missing the main upward wave from 64,000 to 75,000. Waiting for a pullback to see if the 68,000 to 69,000 range can hold before considering re-entry. Continuing to hold SPCX as a base position; the buyback logic for SK Hynix remains unchanged, will consider storage after the pullback is in place. $BTC $SOL $ETH
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders. Good luck.$BTC Live trading is open—please note 🫡 that after BTC surged to 75,770, it did not immediately continue to rise and is currently back in the 74,650–74,750 range. Compared to the rapid rebound after the first surge, this round of pullbacks lasted longer, indicating that profit-taking at high levels is being realized and short-term bullish momentum has clearly cooled. However, it is not yet possible to directly judge a market reversal. From different timeframes: the 4-hour level still maintains a clear bullish structure, with prices standing above major moving averages and trend support, and the previous uptrend remains intact. The 1-hour level is a pullback from a high level after a major bullish candlestick. As long as it doesn't consecutively break below 74,200–74,300, the current trend is more like a chip turnover after a rally. The real weakening is at the 15-minute and 5-minute levels. The price has returned below the short-term moving average, and the rebound high is gradually decreasing, indicating that short-term selling is taking control of the rhythm. Currently, it's not advisable to chase long positions on a single green candlestick, nor to immediately short at the top just because it drops a few hundred points. Now, focus on three areas: First take-off: 74,500—74,650 Orders have some buying near 74,500, 74,550, and 74,600. If the price stops falling here and climbs back above 74,850–75,000, it means the pullback support is valid, and there is still a chance to test 75,250 and 75,770 again. Core long-short boundary: around 74,277. This is the most important position for this round of short-term structure. After the pin breaks, it quickly recovers#财报观察员: Is Pop Mart's growth shifting gears, and can multiple IPs take over?
Crypto gave me a signal to stay calm, contrasting with today's big rally in spot.
OKX's Xiaomi perpetual $XIAOMIUSDT is currently at $3.291 (about ¥23.6 CNY), down 1.02% in 24 hours, with funding rates near zero. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong stock closed near HK$27.52 today (about ¥25.3 CNY), with the perpetual trading at a discount to spot.
Derivatives are calmer than spot, with both bulls and bears cautious. Spot surged with high volume today, but perpetual is at a discount; I see this as a divergence between sentiment and fundamentals.
$XIAOMI #BTC accelerating its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
What factors have caused Bitcoin's explosive surge?
1. Macro liquidity (the core trigger)
The U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of the long-term Treasury repurchase scale, effective from September; long-term U.S. Treasury yields rapidly declined, and the U.S. dollar index weakened.
With risk-free bond yields falling, capital is willing to flow back into high-risk assets, relieving valuation pressure on Bitcoin and laying the foundation for an upward environment.
2. Shift in U.S. regulatory expectations (positive sentiment)
1. SEC new rule proposal: small token issuances can be exempt from securities registration, providing a compliance safe harbor and reducing industry policy panic;
2. The White House held a crypto industry summit, signaling an end to the "crackdown on cryptocurrencies," promoting the passage of the "CLARITY Act," and rumors emerged that the government is considering allocating Bitcoin; the market shifted from fearing strict regulation to expecting a clear and friendly regulatory framework, raising institutional risk appetite.
3. Futures market short squeeze stampede (short-term surge amplifier)
Many traders opened short positions during the previous consolidation range. After the price started to rise, shorts were consecutively forced to liquidate; liquidations require buying BTC to close positions, and passive buying further pushed prices up, creating a short squeeze.
Over $3 billion in shorts were liquidated within 24 hours, rapidly amplifying the single-day gain, representing a leveraged capital-driven impulse move.
4. On-chain chip support (underlying support)
Whale addresses showed net accumulation, continuously accumulating, reducing market floating selling pressure; combined with market sentiment entering the greed zone, retail investors followed the trend, concentrating buy orders.
Simple ranking of weights: U.S. Treasury liquidity adjustment > improved regulatory expectations > short squeeze liquidations > whale holdings + retail sentiment.
These positive factors all landed within just a few days, resonating to create this rapid rally; a single positive factor alone is unlikely to produce such a large single-day gain. 8.21 $ETH Market｜Strong Bullish Breakout, Mid-term Trend Officially Turns Bullish
After a sharp rally yesterday, it is currently consolidating strongly at a high level with no signs of large-scale sell-offs or escapes.
Multi-timeframe naked K-line closes with a strong bullish candle, officially establishing a short-term bullish trend. All short-term moving averages are spreading upward; as long as the pullback holds above 2300, this bullish momentum can continue.
$ETH Key Levels
Resistance: 2380, 2420
Intraday Support: 2330, 2300
Intraday Overall Strategy: Bullish bias with consolidation, firmly avoid chasing highs
Market Summary
The mid-term structure has opened a bullish pattern, but after consecutive short-term rallies, indicators are already in overbought territory at high levels.
The best approach today is to wait for the price to pull back to support before adding positions; chasing highs directly is very likely to encounter a quick retracement.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 A complete trading plan should not only allow yourself to bottom-fish but also permit buying at higher prices after trend confirmation. Use position sizing on the left side to control uncertainty, and use cost on the right side to exchange for certainty; if no trade occurs on the left side, then execute the right side plan. Don't be afraid when prices fall, and then complain about prices being too high after they rise. $OKB
$BTC has previously entered the buying zone: either wait for a divergence to set up on the left side, or follow through on the right side after breaking through the MA200. After the breakthrough the night before last, we have bought spot and Calls, with the Calls currently profiting over 70%. At that time, BTC had just passed 70,000, with a stop loss reference around 69,000, meaning the risk is only 3%—5%; if BTC accounts for 10% of the total position, the actual account risk is only about 0.3%—0.5%, while the potential return could reach 5 to 10 times. $ETH
When the opportunity comes, execute: control position size, set stop loss, calculate cost, and leave the rest to the market. After BTC breaks through the MA200, it enters a bullish structure, and my strategy has turned bullish.04｜Dual Staking is actually a very critical design
Core's Dual Staking essentially is:
BTC + CORE.
BTC is responsible for providing capital and network security participation,
while CORE further enhances the yield tier of BTC Staking.
The official documentation has already provided the actual participation path for Dual Staking.
The economic logic behind this is worth long-term observation:
The more BTC enters Core → the larger the BTCFi scale → the stronger the demand for CORE → the increase in protocol revenue → the stronger the buyback capability.
If this flywheel truly gets going, then CORE is not just an "L1 Gas Token."
It is more like:
A value capture asset within the BTCFi economic system.Just now, the CFTC spoke more directly: if Congress doesn't act, regulators might take the lead themselves.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig publicly stated in Washington today:
If the CLARITY Act continues to stall in Congress, the CFTC will use its existing authority to start building a regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto asset market.
If the bill ultimately can't move forward, he will ask staff to quickly propose new industry rules.
This statement is much more concrete than "the U.S. supports Crypto."
The market has been waiting:
When will Congress pass crypto regulatory legislation?
Now another path has emerged:
Congress is too slow, so the SEC and CFTC will use their powers to pave the way first.
The signals over the past couple of days have formed a clear line:
The SEC first proposed new token financing rules;
Yesterday, Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and even directly named Hyperliquid;
Today, the CFTC Chairman said if the bill is stuck, regulators are ready to act first.
What’s truly worth trading on is not just a speech.
It’s that U.S. regulatory logic is shifting from:
"Who exactly regulates Crypto?"
to:
"How to legally keep these markets in the U.S.?"
For BTC and ETH, this is the logic behind the entire industry’s risk discount decreasing.
For perpetual contract platforms like HYPE, sensitivity might be even higher—because the CFTC specifically oversees the derivatives market.
But it’s still too early to say "HYPE has been approved to enter the U.S."
The real next step.03｜And Core is now entering its second phase
Early Core was more about proving:
BTC can generate revenue.
But by 2026, Core is clearly moving in another direction:
BTC revenue → protocol income → CORE value capture.
The Revenue Roadmap Core released at the end of 2025 is very clear:
Future income generated by BTCFi products will be connected to CORE buybacks through different mechanisms.
The official core goal is even summarized as:
Drive revenue and buybacks to the CORE token.
This is much more important than simply issuing incentives.
Because a truly sustainable public chain economic model must ultimately answer:
Why do users come?
Why does capital stay?
How does the protocol make money?
Why can the money the protocol earns be reflected in the token’s value?
Core is now trying to connect these four questions.#BTC accelerating its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
BTC has surged sharply in the short term, driven by optimistic regulatory expectations, declining US Treasury yields, and large-scale short liquidations, all jointly pushing this round of the market. However, the momentum structure of the rise has already shown divergence.
A large part of this rapid rise comes from short covering, which is passive closing buy orders rather than a large influx of new incremental funds entering the market. As a large number of short positions are cleared, the short squeeze dividend will quickly fade. Whether the subsequent market can sustain depends on spot funds taking over.
My personal view: there is still inertia for a short-term surge, but blind optimism is not advisable. The market has already entered an overbought zone, bullish sentiment is crowded, and there is heavy resistance from trapped positions at 73000‑75000. It is very likely to first consolidate and digest, and the probability of a direct, continuous sharp rise is low.
Two key observation indicators: first, whether spot ETFs can maintain continuous net inflows, which reflects the true attitude of institutions; second, whether the 70000‑71000 support range can hold. If it breaks down quickly, it indicates insufficient relay funds and a risk of concentrated profit-taking and pullback.
In practice: spot base positions can continue to be held to enjoy trend recovery dividends; contracts must strictly avoid chasing highs, and not be blinded by short-term sharp rises. It is better to wait for a pullback to confirm support before considering layout, as heavy positions at high levels have very low cost-effectiveness for speculative play.
No matter how good the positive narrative is, without real money funds taking over, pulse rallies are hard to sustain.I believe this wave of BTC rally is more of a short-term short squeeze rather than a trend reversal, because the trading volume and stablecoin liquidity have not yet caught up. On August 19, OKX spot BTC/USDT surged to $75,000, with nearly $3 billion liquidated in 24 hours, which looks fierce. But looking closely at the capital flow—the combined net inflow of US BTC and ETH spot ETFs was $706 million, with BTC accounting for $517 million and ETH only $189 million, indicating that the main players are still watching, while retail investors and leveraged positions are chasing the highs. I lightly tried going long near $72,000 last week, setting a stop loss at $70,500, but the price surged and then fell back the same day, almost triggering my stop loss. Later, reviewing the situation, I found that the rally was accompanied by concentrated short covering rather than a continuous influx of new buying. Just like the "false breakout" in November last year, which was also driven by liquidations and eventually corrected over 15%. The market is now very divided: some think the ETF inflow is a signal, but I trust the data more. If the average daily trading volume cannot be maintained above $20 billion in the next three days, and the USDT market cap does not grow, then profit-taking at high levels could crash the market at any time. I suggest not chasing the highs and waiting for a pullback to the $72,000–$73,000 range before considering building positions in batches. Remember: in a bull market, the biggest losers are often those who think "this time is different." #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 这两天市场最容易让人产生一个错觉： ETH都开始被机构疯狂买了，山寨季是不是马上就来了？ 我反而觉得： 现在还早。 甚至我认为，当前这轮“山寨币轮动”，很可能只是第一阶段的假象。 为什么？ 先看ETH。 机构资金确实正在重新回到ETH。 8月19日，美国现货ETH ETF单日净流入一度达到1.868亿美元；最近几个交易日，ETH ETF资金也出现明显回暖。 更夸张的是企业资金。 BitMine目前已经持有约581万枚ETH，占ETH总供应量约4.8%，距离它提出的5%目标已经非常近。 所以现在说“机构开始重新重视ETH”，我认。 但问题来了： ETH上涨，不等于山寨币马上全面起飞。 这就是很多人最容易搞错的地方。 现在市场的钱，其实还在非常集中。 BTC依然占据接近60%的市场份额。 目前全球加密市场总市值约2.52万亿美元，过去24小时上涨6%以上，但BTC市占率仍然达到59.7%。 这说明什么？ 说明资金虽然进来了。 但还没有真正彻底从大币流向小币。 现在更像是： BTC先涨。 ETH接力。 然后部分大市值山寨跟着涨。 最后散户看到K线开始追。 这才是现在的资金路径。 真正的山寨季Not convinced, just not convinced
Only know how to stare at my position
Is that interesting?
50 $ETH short positions
Floating loss already over 20,000 U
I keep holding on
I just don't believe it
I want to see how long the dog whales can hold on
But I just calmed down and thought for a while
This time, it really can't be all blamed on the dog whales
The US Treasury suddenly doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases
The market immediately started trading on improved liquidity
Plus the White House released positive crypto regulatory news
Trump is pushing the Clarity Act again
Bitcoin directly surged to $70,000
Shorts across the market blew up tens of billions of dollars in one day
No wonder ETH followed all the way up
Seeing this, I was a bit silent too
No
Why do all the good news come out right after I open shorts?
What’s even more frustrating is
US spot ETH ETF inflows nearly $190 million in one day
This is the largest inflow since last October
So this time it’s really not a pump without volume
Spot funds are buying
Contract shorts are covering
Two forces pushing the price up together
But then I thought again
Treasury repurchases can only temporarily suppress yields
US bond yields have already rebounded afterward
How long this positive effect lasts is really uncertain
ETH has now surged near 2350
Daily chart is getting farther from the moving average
Could it really break through 2400 in one go?
No way
My liquidation price is at 2410
I’m watching 2380 now
If it can’t break through here
I still think it will retest 2300
If it really breaks out with volume and holds
Then I can’t just blindly hold on
Looking at $BEAT again
I don’t even know what to say
The market is rising like this
It still drops nearly 20% in one day
I originally thought the altcoin season was coming
$BEAT should at least follow along
21.25 million tokens unlocked in early August
Worth nearly $67.8 million at that time
Equivalent to 6.87% of circulating supply
This hasn’t been fully digested yet
On September 1, about 11.25 million tokens are waiting to be unlocked
No wonder every time it just rebounds a bit
It’s like someone keeps dumping from above
So don’t break 0.12 for now
When it stands back above 0.14
Then I’ll believe it’s not a pump and dump
$SNDK also makes me quite conflicted
It’s risen so much
My first reaction is bubble
Second reaction is to look for a short opportunity
But they just held an investor conference recently
Focusing on AI data centers and high-performance storage
Long-term growth expectations have been raised again
This wave isn’t purely emotional speculation
But at the 1600 dollar level
I definitely dare not chase
If it can’t break through 1631
I’ll keep watching for a retest at 1527
If it really breaks through
Then I have to admit funds are still betting on AI storage
As for BOME
This coin suddenly surged over 30% in one day
Trading volume expanded several times
When I first saw it, I really wanted to chase in
My hand almost clicked buy
Then I thought again
No, going in at this time is just carrying others’ bags
Currently no particularly strong project news
More like the market warming up
Plus Solana-related MEME sentiment exploding
The previously added tens of millions of dollars in DEX liquidity is also boosting trading
Watch if 0.001323 can break through first
If it breaks, it can keep surging
If not, it’s easy to quickly give back gains
After thinking it through
This ETH rise really has reasons
But good news can’t be repeated every day
I’m still not convinced
But I’m not going to prove myself by liquidation
If 2380 can’t hold
I’ll wait for it to fall back
If it really holds steady
I still have to control my position
Dog whales can keep changing the script
I can’t write myself out first
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX $OKB finally caught up, but it’s not the only one among the 6 coins with an upward trend; it’s just following the rally now.
On 8/21 early morning, it rose from 100.9 to 108, currently trading around 106–108, up about 6%. In the past few days, it was stuck between 98–104 and refused to follow the trend. Today, the market squeeze forced it up. The fundamentals of the OKX ecosystem (X Layer, burn deflation model, IPO expectations) remain intact, but this rally is driven by sentiment, not an independent market.
In comparison: $HYPE surged 27% due to Trump compliance, SOL rose 10%, BTC increased 4.4%, and OKB only +6%, ranking behind among the 6 coins. Previously, I said the "only coin with a trend to go long among the 6" was based on the confidence to catch the bottom when it lagged; now that it has caught up, the cost-performance ratio has actually decreased. Also, from 95 to 108, the short-term RSI has returned to the overbought zone (it reached 78 on 8/18).
Support is seen at 100–103: as long as it doesn’t break 100 and there’s no negative news from OKX, it will continue to test 110; however, 108–110 is a previous dense trading area with many trapped positions. Buying in now means profiting from the tail end of sentiment, not from a revaluation of the main uptrend.What really needs to be observed in this $BTC rally is not how much it has risen, but who will take over the baton after $73,000? Breaking through $73,000 is indeed just the first shot. After $73,000, the real core to watch for the relay is whether spot demand can take the baton from "short covering" and absorb the pressure from overbought conditions and profit-taking.
🚦 Why is the "relay" after $73,000 the core issue?
This surge largely benefited from a short squeeze; in the past 24 hours alone, about $431 million in short positions on $BTC were liquidated. But this force is one-time only. For the market to continue upward, it must find new funds (spot and $ETF capital) to sustain buying.
🔍 Three "relay signals" you need to watch closely
The relay is not yet complete, and signals are mixed:
· Relay party one: $ETF and institutional funds (promising but needs observation)
· Good news: Since August, net inflows into $BTC $ETF have been about $1.48 billion, with institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity recently injecting nearly $300 million in a single day. Wall Street giants like Jane Street also hold nearly $1 billion in $BTC $ETF assets.
· Bad news: Overall, the gap left by the former "largest buyers" has not been fully filled, and $ETF funds have not yet stabilized enough to dominate the market.
· Relay party two: Whales and on-chain demand (accumulating but needs time)
· Good news: Whales are "buying up," increasing holdings by about 43,000 $BTC over the past 60 days. CryptoQuant data also shows this is the first time since last October’s peak that both spot and perpetual contract demand have simultaneously turned positive.
· Bad news: This warming signal is still "moderate in scale," and analysts believe it will take at least a month of sustained activity to confirm a bull market return.
· Potential resistance: Profit-taking by short-term holders
· Recently, Bitcoin on Binance recorded the largest-ever profitable UTXO transfer. This is a clear profit-taking signal, indicating short-term holders who were previously underwater are now selling after breaking even. This supply is the first hurdle above $73,000 that spot demand needs to absorb.
💎 In summary
The key to this rally lies in whether $ETF and whale buying can continue and expand to absorb the loosened chips and profit-taking above. If subsequent spot buying can take over, the rally has room to continue; otherwise, if the relay falters, short-term overbought correction pressure will emerge.
Are you more focused on $ETF capital inflow data or on-chain whale position changes? #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Awake! Night session quick update:
$SPCX closed at 134, dipping to just over 130 at the lowest point, the rhythm is okay, short positions are still viable!
Storage has actually been holding up pretty well these past couple of days, $MU is currently at 980, $SNDK at 1600. I mentioned earlier that it’s unlikely to hit new lows directly. But how it moves still needs to be watched step by step.
For optics, $LITE and $AAOI have rebounded nicely, but note that these two stocks usually move very similarly. $AXTI hasn’t broken below 70 and is still consolidating. I personally bought in. $COHR dipped to 280; I think if it holds above 300, it can rally. You can start positioning now.
Also, I’ve said before $NOK is pure trash, buying this stock is basically wasting money, it moves slowly and the rebound strength is weak.
I also have $MRVL, it’s doing okay, currently at 250, I’ll hold on to it.#Fed July FOMC Minutes 9-3, Officials Still Divided on Rate Hikes The Fed's July FOMC minutes show a 9-3 vote, with internal disagreements on rate hikes still present
$BEAT has basically ended its rally; don't hold onto hopes for a rebound recovery.
The story of "the wolf is coming" won't play out a third time. I repeatedly advised shorting on rallies at the beginning of the month when the price was still around 4U, and I judged that the 0.15 support would be hard to hold. Those who listened have already made good profits.
I still maintain the view: not recommended to go long. There will be a large volume of token unlocks and selling pressure ahead, so please remain cautious.
$AEON has retraced about 10% from its high, but the overall trend has not deteriorated.
The holding volume remains high, indirectly indicating that the main players have not exited. My approach: the pullback is a buying window, and I keep a base position; I will not fully exit before it breaks above 0.12, as there is still room to rise.
LAB and BEAT are in a similar situation and are unlikely to strengthen again. The operational logic of these two tokens is very similar, suspected to be the same funding scheme. The previous rise was due to only 9% circulation, with the main players using low circulation to pump and dump; now circulation has reached 77%, making it very difficult for users trapped at high levels to break even.$BTC This round of rally was initially driven by short squeeze. Approximately $3 billion in short positions were forcibly liquidated, creating a typical short squeeze scenario, pushing the price up sharply in a short period.
Positive signals have appeared in the funding side. The US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently recorded continuous net inflows, with cumulative net inflows in August approaching or exceeding $1.5 billion. On August 19 alone, the single-day inflow exceeded $500 million, marking one of the largest single-day inflows in recent months.
BlackRock's IBIT continues to lead, with products from Fidelity, ARK, and others also attracting capital simultaneously. Institutional funds are flowing back through ETF channels, indicating that this is not purely leverage-driven but includes some medium- to long-term allocation capital entering the market.
The short-term holder cost baseline has been reclaimed, spot demand indicators have turned positive from negative, contract positions have begun to rebuild after liquidation, but funding rates have not yet shown extreme crowding, indicating the market has not fully entered a "high leverage frenzy" state.
Whether ETF inflows can maintain continuity and scale is a key question. If there is a significant slowdown or net outflow later, prices are likely to enter high-level consolidation or even retracement.
Whether spot buying truly keeps up is also critical. After the short squeeze rally, if trading volume shrinks and on-chain activity declines, upward momentum will weaken.
Technical overbought conditions and profit-taking pressure exist. Some indicators have entered overbought territory, so short-term pullback and correction are normal. The key is whether support around $70,000–$68,500 can hold. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
$SNDK strengthened again today, reaching as high as $1631 intraday, currently around $1600, up over 2% from the previous close; but don't forget it plunged 9% in a single day on August 18, this stock is truly a roller coaster. AI data center demand, NAND price increases, and the company's high growth targets remain the core logic. Sandisk expects revenue to grow mid-to-high single digits to double digits annually from 2028 to 2030, with a gross margin target of about 80%; however, valuation and volatility are already quite exaggerated. I tend to believe "strong long-term logic, but don't chase the frenzy in the short term."$SPCX holds the 130 level
Bottom-fishing success ✅
Short-term target first looks near 140
SpaceX is currently in a typical "high growth + high valuation + high controversy" phase. Fundamentally, Starlink's continuous profitability and rapid revenue growth are solid positives; however, delays in Starship progress, massive AI spending, and gradual unlocking of shares create short-term pressure.
Focus on the exact timetable for Starship's 14th test flight—if approved and successfully captured in the short term, it could be a catalyst for a stock price rebound; if further delayed, pressure may continue. Additionally, selling pressure from subsequent batches of unlocked shares remains a concern.
Achieving Starship milestones is key to valuation expansion. If Starship achieves rapid reusability, SpaceX's 10-year lead in launch costs will gradually translate into financial returns.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX In this wave of the market, I actually don't recommend anyone rushing to buy long now. Because the real danger often isn't when the market crashes. It's when everyone suddenly feels "it can't fall." In the past two days, BTC has surged from around 63,000 to above 72,000, with over 3 billion USD in short positions forced liquidated within 24 hours. Some statistics show that this round of short liquidations has reached a rare scale in recent years. (Decrypt) Moreover, this rally is not purely driven by sentiment. The U.S. Treasury is expanding its long-term Treasury repurchase scale, easing pressure on long-term yields; Trump continued to signal policy support for the crypto industry at the White House Crypto Summit. Several factors combined with collective short stop-losses: the more the bears explode, the higher BTC rises. The higher BTC rises, the less bearish the bears are to hold on. The more afraid you are to keep them, the more you want to buy them back. This is a typical short squeeze. So the most critical question now is no longer "Can BTC still rise?" Rather: Is the buying above 72,000 yuan truly new funds, or a massive short covering? My judgment is simple. In the short term, I will focus on three key positions. First, $70,000. If BTC pulls back to around 70,000, quickly recovers, and holds steady, it means the previous breakout has not been completely swallowed up. In this case, 70,000 may shift from resistance to support. Second, $73,000–$75,000. This is where the real observation is needed. Because a short squeeze is most likely to create a false impression: prices are rising extremely fast. But there was no real spot pickup$PEOPLE understands clearly that crypto players currently have no interest in high-tech, high-market-cap, high-VC projects because they have experienced FLOKI, PEPE, IRDI—these low-market-cap coins skyrocketing dozens of times. Therefore, they are not interested in those high-market-cap VC coins. Concepts like real-world asset tokenization (RWA) and top-tier high-performance L1 universal new public chains, although impressive and powerful, are irrelevant to these players and hold no appeal. Instead, these crypto players prefer grassroots culture and coins that can make a comeback.The recently released initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 206,000, below the market expectation of about 210,000, with the previous value revised up from 209,000 to 212,000.
Looking solely at the initial claims figure of 206,000, the market's first reaction is often that expectations for a Fed rate cut cool down again, which creates short-term logical pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies and gold. After all, layoffs are decreasing, and the job market still appears to maintain strong resilience.
However, if we consider the continuing claims rising to 1,799,000 alongside this, the real picture behind it is not a booming job market but rather a typical frozen state.
Currently, companies generally adopt a strategy of neither hiring nor firing; existing positions in the market have not experienced large-scale breakdowns, but once someone becomes unemployed, the difficulty and duration of finding a new job are indefinitely extended. This micro-level liquidity freeze reflects the true temperature of the labor market far better than just the number of layoffs.
For the Federal Reserve, this data sends a rather ambiguous signal. On one hand, initial claims remaining low means there is no urgent short-term pressure to prevent a recession through rate cuts, and the high interest rate environment still has reason to continue; on the other hand, the persistent decline in continuing claims quietly erodes labor resilience, indicating the overall economy is still evolving toward softening.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC: A Short Squeeze Is Not the Same as a Bullish Reversal A short squeeze happened overnight, and suddenly the comment section is full of people calling it a bullish reversal. Let's slow down. $BTC jumped more than 6% in 24 hours, with the move heavily amplified by short liquidations. Recent market data shows billions of dollars in crypto shorts were wiped out during the rally. But a squeeze and a sustainable trend reversal are two different things. After more than a decade in the market, I've#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
Trump calls on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, will $BTC still rise?
The bill's passage is indeed positive, but don't equate "calling out" directly with "BTC taking off." After the news, BTC briefly broke through $72,000, rising over 11%, already pricing in expectations early; if the bill is truly enacted, clarifying the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, it is expected to reduce compliance uncertainties for institutional entry, which is a long-term positive for BTC and the entire industry.
The problem is the bill is still stuck in the Senate, with the market betting the probability of passage in 2026 at only about 22%-24%, so if it really passes, there could be another rise, but in the short term it looks more like "profit-taking on good news plus increased volatility."$BTC: The Market Rewards Patience Before the Breakout $BTC doesn't need to break out today to remain interesting. In fact, the most important phase may be happening while the market feels quiet. What matters now is how Bitcoin behaves inside the current range. If sellers continue to get absorbed and demand remains steady, this sideways movement could gradually turn into a base for the next move rather than a signal of weakness. The biggest mistake is waiting until everyone becomes bullish beforeI’m Cige. After $SNDK surged toward 1,800, the stock entered a period of high-level volatility. On August 18, it fell more than 9% at the open, then rebounded intraday on August 19 before giving back another roughly 3.5%. The message from the market is becoming clearer: the storage sector is facing growing valuation divergence. The long-term growth targets unveiled at Investor Day remain the key catalyst behind the sector’s rebound. Goldman Sachs has set a $2,200 target, JPMorgan raised its targThe signal Trump sent this time, after the White House crypto summit, many people started shouting: Is the US preparing to buy Bitcoin on a large scale? My answer is: There is this direction, but it cannot yet be directly understood as "the US government is about to dump tens of billions to buy BTC." These two things are very far apart. The Trump administration officially established a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" as early as 2025, but the core method at that time was not to frantically buy with fiscal funds directly, but to include Bitcoin already held and confiscated by the government into the reserve. White House documents also require finding "budget-neutral" ways to increase holdings. So what I really focus on is not whether Trump said "buy BTC" today. But rather: The US is gradually moving Bitcoin from a "high-risk asset" to a "national strategic asset" position. This is the most alarming point. If in the future the US really passes laws allowing the fiscal system, gold assets, federal agency revenues, or other budget-neutral methods to continuously increase BTC reserves, then the nature completely changes. Because by then: The US is not speculating on coins. But hoarding a globally scarce asset. Even more intense is, what about other countries? The US starts hoarding, and others don't follow? That means others watch helplessly as the US increases its digital asset reserves. So I actually believe: The real big market movement may not come from a single speech by Trump, but from the day US policy is finally implemented. But now, never equate the four words "strategic reserve" directly with Market Flash ｜ Day 5
#BTC accelerates rally, can funds continue to take over?
#White House Summit: Trump said he discussed buying BTC
Is the bull market really here?! BTC surged $10,000 in two days!
$BTC surged $10,000 in two days, driven by multiple factors, but a single sharp rise cannot be directly equated with the arrival of a bull market.
Liquidation situation: This round is a typical short squeeze, with total liquidations across the network exceeding $3.3 billion, and short liquidations accounting for over 90%. The market was generally bearish earlier, with a large accumulation of short positions; after the price broke resistance levels, forced liquidation of shorts triggered passive buying, further pushing up the price, creating a chain short squeeze, with leverage amplifying volatility.
Reasons for the rise
1. Macro level: US Treasury yields declined, the market repriced rate cut expectations, benefiting risk assets.
2. Regulatory expectations: US crypto policy shift expectations heat up, spot ETF funds flow back, institutional buying provides support.
3. Capital game: Early bottom selling pressure has been digested, combined with concentrated short covering, short-term quant funds follow the trend, amplifying the rise.
Objective reminder: A significant part of this rise comes from passive short covering, not entirely new long-term spot funds. The market has entered a greed zone, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking in the short term, increasing the risk of a pullback.
To truly confirm a bull market, we need to see if the price can sustain at high levels, continuous ETF fund inflows, and the implementation of macro rate cuts; one or two big bullish candles alone are insufficient to determine the start of a bull market.