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#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Netflix's bearish outlook mainly stems from the peak of growth dividends and pressure from high valuations. The effectiveness of cracking down on parasitic accounts is diminishing, mature markets are saturated, and frequent price hikes may drive up cancellation rates. Additionally, monetization of the ad plan has not yet fully materialized, and heavy investment in sports live streaming will increase content costs. With a relatively high P/E ratio, if revenue growth slows, it is very likely to trigger a valuation correction. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？
🤔 Honestly, I am more cautious about Bitcoin's short-term trend than I was a few days ago.
Here appears a divergence signal worth warning about:
The 10-year US Treasury yield is falling, the dollar is weakening, and gold is strengthening.
Normally, these conditions should be favorable for BTC.
However, the price once dipped near $80,000.
Add one more key data point: on October 14, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $261 million.
This leads to a hypothesis: the current market may not be trading on "future liquidity easing" but rather on "risk aversion panic."
There are two scenarios for the decline in US Treasury yields:
✅ Scenario one: betting on a rate cut, with funds wanting to flow into risk assets.
Scenario two: out of fear, everyone rushes to buy government bonds for safety.
If it is the latter, the yield drop may not be able to support the price of Bitcoin $SOL $BTC $ETH US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%; core CPI also exceeded expectations. After the data release, market bets on further Fed rate hikes surged significantly, with high-valuation tech stocks taking the brunt first. AI debt and financing risks exposed (structural pain points)
AI cloud service provider CoreWeave's bond yields soared to nearly 15%, and its stock price plummeted over 15% in a single day. Elon Musk's public response of "yikes" further amplified market panic. The market began to question the sustainability of massive debt-driven expansion in AI infrastructure, with related stocks such as Oracle and Dell also sharply falling. High valuations combined with profit-taking
The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio was previously at a relatively high level above 29 times, significantly higher than the median of the past decade. The tech sector accumulated strong profit-taking demand after continuous gains, and rising international oil prices further intensified market concerns about tightening liquidity, creating a "double whammy" pressure.
The essence of this round of decline is a pricing restructuring as the market shifts from an "AI narrative-driven" to an "AI profit validation" focus—macro rate hike pressures and micro financing risks resonate, forcing capital to reassess the high valuation foundations of tech stocks.Midday Notes: Warsh finished speaking at 11:30, not a single word given, 82,000 still in place
The article this morning said the real test was at 11:30. After the test, a blank paper was handed in: Warsh did not make any predictions throughout the IMF annual meeting, repeatedly saying only "no pre-judgment of meeting decisions," giving no hint about whether there will be a rate hike on October 27–28; he only reiterated that there was already one hike in September and that price stability must be delivered. After today's speech, the Fed enters a quiet period, and no one will speak before the meeting.
The market's response was honest—no direction. At 11 o'clock, the hourly candle first dipped to 81,688, then pulled back to close at 82,126; now BTC is at 82,034 (12:44, my checked price), after a morning and midday session, still grinding within the 81,688–82,634 range, with volume shrinking. ETH is at 2,439, lowest touched 2,424, 2,400 was not touched at all.
My view as an old retail trader: no news is the news today. The market waited in vain but also eliminated the biggest uncertainty—no data or speeches in the next ten days, so the market can only choose sides based on its own volume. If the range holds, I won't take sides; if it really breaks, the closing price decides, and either side is fine.
Just one question: before today's close, will 82,634 break first, or 81,688?#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
The rebound is not a new bull market, just a technical recovery after deleveraging.
BTC: Spot still has a net outflow of 133 million in 24h, with 13.7 million outflow in 1h, indicating buyers at low levels but no chasing at high levels; contracts have a combined outflow of 317 million in 1h+4h, leverage is also withdrawing. There is support at 80,000, 83,000–84,000 is the previous high plus a dense chip trading zone; failure to hold means oscillation between 79,000–83,000.
ETH: Don’t be fooled by the 375 million net inflow in 24h contracts—1h/4h contracts have already turned to outflow, and spot has a 57.05 million outflow in 24h. This money mainly comes from short covering and long position covering, not from allocation buying. ETH/BTC has no bottom, moving averages are down, the rebound is more of a pullback than a reversal.
So don’t get ahead of yourself now. There are only two confirmation signals: 1h spot net flow of BTC/ETH turns positive, and BTC recovers above 83,000. The invalidation signals are simple: BTC falls below 80,000, ETH spot outflow expands.
On the macro side, PPI exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields are capped, and rate cut pricing is delayed, so the ceiling for risk assets is limited.
In short: funds are not in place, so don’t position yourself fully; wait for a pullback to buy, it’s more dignified than chasing highs. Data is scorching hot, trust is cooling down (｡•́︿•̀｡)
September PPI hit a new high since the end of 2022, with the core also exceeding expectations, and energy prices rising over 10% in a single month. CPI just heated up, and now PPI strikes again. The data is so hot, yet officials are still dodging the issue, making the market suspect: what’s being priced in isn’t inflation, but the Federal Reserve’s credibility. (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
$BTC first broke 80,000, bottomed at 79,800, then sharply pulled back above 82,000. Such a deep V-shape doesn’t look like retail investor behavior. ETF net outflow was 3,209 BTC in one day, 5,250 BTC over seven days; institutions retreat, on-chain whales take over. Chips are moving from fast money to slow money. (•̀ᴗ•́)و
$ETH is weaker. ETF outflow was 38,915 ETH on the same day; institutions are pulling out, starting with it. Leverage is already low; if key support holds, short covering might give a short bounce; but ETFs are still bleeding, so don’t rush to call a rebound. (´･_･`)
Gold also fell; what’s running are futures speculative longs, while gold ETFs and central banks are taking over. BTC relies on on-chain whales, gold relies on central banks and sovereign funds — patience is on a different scale. (￣▽￣)~*
PPI exploded, but the deep V indicates real buying at low levels. The three data points just landed; hold your spot in the spot market; don’t chase the first candlestick. (ง •_•)ง
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 # Latest Updates
- PPI year-on-year 6.3%, core 5.0%, retail 0.8%, all exceeding expectations; excluding oil price inflation neutrality, control group sales below expectations and previous values revised down, triggering short covering.
- US military reportedly formulating plans to strike Iran, Houthi forces attack Saudi Aramco headquarters; IEA announces accelerated release of remaining 100 million barrels of oil reserves, Brent crude holds at $105.69.
- Anthropic lowers IPO valuation to 1.5 trillion (originally 2 trillion); OpenAI raises 1.4 trillion; FTC issues subpoena investigating consumer harm.
- BTC fluctuates at 82,200, ETH at 2441; BTC ETF outflows 261 million, ETH ETF outflows 130 million, USDC and USDT both decline.
# Trading Analysis
- Maintain conclusion unchanged: risk-averse capital drives yield decline, not fundamental deterioration.
- September PPI and total retail volume exceed expectations but inflation neutral excluding oil prices, control group sales below expectations and previous values revised down, disproving economic overheating. Yield decline driven by AI volatility risk aversion demand and short covering. Focus on Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday for rate guidance.
- AI shifts to ROI validation, Anthropic valuation lowered to 1.5 trillion; KOSPI down 7.57%, tech IPO delays cause disruption.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 This is the reason why storage prices have fallen; the money has all been earned by TSMC $BTC The Fed Chair's recent speech was neutral to dovish. Next, there will be a 10-day silence period for Fed officials (during which they cannot express opinions). The probability of a rate hike in October is expected to continue dropping from 22%, so the market should see a rebound before the policy meeting at the end of the month.Standard Chartered has opened $BTC and $ETH trading for UAE clients
Standard Chartered Bank allows wealthy clients in the UAE to directly buy and sell $BTC and $ETH.
Custody and settlement are handled entirely within the bank, with the license issued by VARA.
What others see: The bank has finally entered the market.
What I see: The money never actually leaves the bank.
Where does this money come from:
The client's funds were already on Standard Chartered's books; now there's just an added button to buy crypto.
No need to transfer to an exchange, no need to manage private keys.
How is this calculated:
Custody within the bank means the coins are recorded under the bank's name, and clients hold shares.
Ownership and custody rights are separated.
The bank acts as a channel, not an exchange.
The channel charges fees but does not bear price volatility.
What really changes is the entry point, not the funds.
Next, we’ll see if the bank is willing to open this system to regular customers.
#渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展
#$BTC $ETH In mid-October, while most people were still debating whether $BTC could hold above 80,000, two large holders flagged by on-chain tracking had already cast their votes with real money—and their direction was completely aligned: shorting. 🤯 First, let's talk about "Sister Bao." Her trading records show three short positions set at low levels: $ETH short at 2530.2 with 10x leverage and a $50,000 position; $BTC short at 83976.3 with 3x leverage and a $50,000 position; $NEAR short at 5.229 with only 1x leverage and a $20,000 position. All three are sell-to-open shorts, totaling about $120,000. Note the leverage structure—$ETH is the most aggressive, $NEAR the most conservative. This is not a casual probe but a layered directional bet: core positions express conviction, smaller positions test altcoin resilience. Now look at "Master Shi." On November 18, he bought then sold, realizing $780,000 in double profits on $BTC and $XRP shorts, all with 10x leverage. Fast, precise, ruthless. Viewed on the same timeline, Sister Bao is the left-side seer—firmly bearish on major coins by mid-October; Master Shi is the right-side hunter—waiting for volatility confirmation before striking hard. Sister Bao’s lighter positions represent "safe profits from correct direction," while Master Shi’s heavier positions represent "harvesting after confirmation." Here's a signal easily overlooked: Sister Bao’s $BTC short uses only 3x leverage, but $ETH is at 10x. If she were simply bearish on the overall market, there would be no need to apply the highest leverage on $ETH. This indicates her core judgment is not "crypto overall collapse," but rather "$ETH relative to $
This chart is the Long-Term Holder MVRV Ratio Momentum on-chain analysis chart for Bitcoin (BTC).
Below is an explanation of this indicator, its usage, and a market analysis combined with the current date (October 16, 2026):
1. Explanation of the Indicator Principle
This chart is provided by the on-chain analysis platform Checkonchain, mainly used to track the profit and loss status and trend momentum of Bitcoin's "smart money" (long-term holders).
Long-Term Holders (LTH) (retail counterparties): usually refers to the group of addresses holding coins for more than 155 days without moving them. Their behavior represents the most steadfast capital in the market.
Black line (Price): Bitcoin's market price (logarithmic scale).
Blue line (LTH-MVRV Ratio): Long-Term Holder MVRV ratio.
Calculated as "current market price" divided by "Long-Term Holders' realized price (average on-chain cost basis)". 1.0 is the break-even line.
Orange line (LTH-MVRV 365DMA): 365-day simple moving average of LTH-MVRV, used to smooth short-term fluctuations and judge macro trends.
Green/Pink area (Momentum): Momentum indicator. When the blue line is above the orange line, it shows positive momentum (green), representing strong upward momentum (bull market); when the blue line falls below the orange line, it shows negative momentum (pink), indicating weakening momentum (bear market).#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix has previously guided for a massive $12.86B in revenue (up ~12% year-over-year) and a staggering 33.2% operating margin, crushing last year’s 28.2%.
But the real Qs for investors are :
1️⃣ Can the ads tier pick up the slack? Password-sharing crackdowns gave Netflix a huge subscriber boost, but that wave is naturally cooling off. The spotlight is now entirely on how fast they can scale and monetize their ad-supported tier 33%+ profitability?? #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Netflix (NFLX): The slowdown and layoffs are real, but the 10/20 earnings report is the unveiling moment.
Fell from a high of 125 to 70. Revenue growth slowed from 17.6% to 13.4%, viewing time only increased by 2%, lost the Warner Bros. bidding, laid off about 6% or 1,000 people.
But not so pessimistic:
1. Profit margin is rising: Q3 expected operating margin 33.2% (28.2% last year), crushing peers (Disney only 7%).
2. Advertising accelerates: 2026 ad revenue target $3 billion doubled, advertisers 4000+ (+70%), ad slots account for over 60% of new registrations.
3. Valuation is already pessimistic: just over 70, PE 22x, Jefferies buy target 85 (+20%), FCF $12.5 billion, buyback restarted.
How to read the 20th: Q3 guidance 12.86 billion, +11.7%, below the market's 13%; the key is Q4 guidance— to maintain full year 51-51.4 billion requires Q4 to achieve +11~14%. Stable Q4 = bad news fully priced; soft talk = break 70 to find 65.
72 close to 52-week low, small stop loss to bet on a big rebound. I'm bullish, light position, stop loss 69.5, target 82-85. (Personal opinion, not investment advice) #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Circle (CRCL) will release its Q3 financial report on November 4. The key points to watch are USDC growth, reserve yield, and distribution costs. Last quarter, USDC circulation increased by 19%, but revenue fell short of expectations. This time, the market wants to know: can stablecoin scale growth truly translate into profit? Conclusion first: $BAT has risen 30% in five days, +13.26% today. The narrative of this established advertising coin has been rediscovered by the market—but without protocol upgrades, new partnerships, or TVL jumps, it's purely a capital-driven "old coin revival."
Clean data: Closing prices 10-11 at 0.150 → 10-12 at 0.177 → 10-13 at 0.175 → 10-14 at 0.194 → today at 0.195, a stepwise rise. Trading volume $72M. Funding rate -0.0048%, premium -0.09%, not contract forced liquidation, but real spot buying.
Three lines resonate: ① Breadth 223 up / 42 down, median +2.98%, BTC holding above 82k, profit-taking effect spreading; ② Brave AI assistant Leo’s user base continues climbing, BAT tagged with a new "AI+browser" label; ③ After ZRO/INJ/PYTH rose, capital looks for "AI concept coins that haven’t risen yet" to take over.
But stay calm: Brave’s BAT buyback has halted in 2024, no real burn within the protocol. If the 13% rise includes contract positions, a pullback to 0.18 is highly probable. Whether the old coin revival script (2021 ICP, 2023 ARB) can be replicated depends on whether capital pushes higher or sells off in the next 72 hours.
What do you think? Is BAT a "true narrative comeback" or just a "pure capital-driven catch-up"? $BATBrothers, SNDK is in trouble again, this time Wall Street is collectively shouting buy while the market is falling
$SNDK $1,343
SNDK closed down 6.48% at 1,394.83 on Thursday, continued to fall to around 1,370 after hours, with 1,343 basically being the after-hours low area. From the high of 1,909 on September 22, the pullback is nearly 30%.
The negative factors are still the same few issues. The progress of DRAM technology by China Changxin Storage has made the market worry about the erosion of pricing power in the memory sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index weakened for two consecutive days, with SanDisk, Western Digital, and SK Hynix all falling.
But Wall Street is shouting buy at this position. Among 25 analysts, 15 gave buy ratings, with an average target price of $2,173, implying about 56% upside. Bernstein maintains a $3,000 target price. Some analysts specifically point out that SNDK focuses on NAND rather than DRAM, and Changxin's progress will not automatically translate into an equivalent competitive threat. The $93.9 billion contract backlog is the real trump card.
Technically, the RSI has dropped to 33.94, entering the oversold area. 1,343 is the after-hours low and also a short-term key observation point. The Q1 earnings report on October 29 is the next verification node.
Let's discuss in the comments, Wall Street shouting buy versus sector panic, which do you believe?👇
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC At the $80,000 level, both bulls and bears have been fighting fiercely. The market is experiencing an extremely rare capital split—who will outlast whom?
Let's first look at two extremes in capital flow:
ETFs are flowing out, with a single-day net outflow of about $258 million, showing strong short-term risk aversion among institutions.
But whales are accumulating, having increased their holdings by about 60,000 BTC since late August, mostly buying in the $80,000 to $86,000 range.
The macro situation is even more troublesome. CPI and PPI have both exceeded expectations, reigniting fears of rate hikes. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are pushing higher, putting collective pressure on risk assets.
Currently, BTC is hovering around $82,000. The resistance zone above at $83,500 to $84,500 is very strong and hard to break without volume; the short-term key support is between $80,000 and $81,000, with $78,000 below that.
My judgment is simple: whether $80,000 can hold depends not on the candlesticks but on capital flow! If ETF outflows slow and whales keep buying, $80,000 will likely hold, and the market will oscillate between $80,000 and $84,000. If ETF outflows continue heavily and whales stop buying, once $80,000 breaks, stop-loss orders and leveraged liquidations will combine to push prices down to $78,000 or even $75,000!
Can the $80,000 level hold? What’s your take?
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Lately, I've increasingly felt that the phase where Bitcoin most easily causes people to lose money is not during a crash, but during the first rebound after a decline.
During a crash, everyone knows there is risk.
But once the rebound comes, the sentiment changes.
Short sellers start taking profits.
Long buyers start bottom-fishing.
Those who missed out begin chasing the rally.
Those originally planning to exit start fantasizing about a new round of gains.
The problem is, these buy orders don't necessarily represent long-term capital re-entering the market.
Short covering can push prices up, but it doesn't necessarily sustain the trend.
So moving forward, what I focus on most is not how much Bitcoin can rebound.
But three signals:
Whether ETFs can continuously restore net inflows.
Whether spot trading volume keeps pace during the rebound.
After the price re-establishes itself at key levels, whether it can withstand the next pullback.
If these three conditions don't improve, I won't change my judgment just because of a big bullish candle.
But if the market starts showing signs of not falling on bad news, pullbacks being bought, and sustained capital inflows, I will promptly revise my view.
I don't want to be someone who is always bullish.
Nor do I want to be someone who is always bearish. $PENDLE The Federal Reserve Chair's recent speech was neutral to dovish. The Fed will now enter a 10-day blackout period during which officials cannot express opinions. The probability of a rate hike in October is expected to continue dropping from 22%, so the market should see a rebound before the policy meeting at the end of the month.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $82,284 (-0.18%)
BTC remains steady above 82K, but just experienced a sharp washout last night. The intraday low touched $79,694, marking a nearly three-week low, then quickly recovered.
What happened?
US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, fueling rate hike concerns. AI and semiconductor stocks plunged, dragging down risk assets. Within 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $929 million, with longs accounting for $777 million, and over 180,000 traders forced out.
Key signals:
· The Fear & Greed Index jumped from 53 to 63 (Greed), indicating a rapid sentiment recovery
· BTC market dominance remains high at 59.8%, with funds still favoring Bitcoin
· On-chain monitoring shows a whale sold a total of 1,601 BTC over 5 days, rotating into ETH
Short-term focus:
Analyst Ted Pillows believes **$81,000 is a critical support**; breaking below may lead to consolidation. A breakthrough above the $82,800–$83,700 resistance zone could pave the way for further gains.
This rebound looks more like a technical recovery after deleveraging. Although volume has increased, the key is whether spot buying will sustain. At first, I thought ETH had risen about 3% that day, and the long-short ratio would push higher. Just checked OKX, it was still around 2.4 yesterday at noon, but now it has dropped to 1.9.
The top 5% column doesn't match either; calculating by position size, the long-short ratio is still at 0.91. People here are slightly more long, but the money is a bit more short.
So in this rebound, the side accumulating people is actually letting go, and the big holders' positions haven't flipped to long. If the top 5% position ratio goes above 1 in the next couple of days, I'll admit I was wrong.
When you usually look at ETH, do you trust the number of people ratio more, or the position size ratio? $ETH Midday Market Quick Review
$BTC:
BTC midday at 82056, after dipping to 79775 yesterday, entered a consolidation repair phase. Resistance above at 84216, support below at 80110, RSI back near 48, bearish momentum weakening with insufficient volume, short-term weak consolidation.
$ETH:
ETH midday at 2441, performance weaker than BTC, resistance above at 2566 and 2642, support below at 2375, RSI recovered to around 52, moving average pressure still present.
Capital Flow:
Fear and Greed Index at 64, still in the greed zone; 24h liquidations at $340 million, down 64% from yesterday's peak, longs and shorts roughly balanced; retail long-short ratio about 1.5, bulls still dominant.
Top two Hyperliquid addresses combined have nearly $500 million in BTC+ETH short positions, whales hedging at high levels.
On the spot side, BTC and ETH have net outflows over the past 8 hours, but SOL and TRX continue net inflows, capital rotating within the market, not exiting.
Liquidation pain points: BTC longs at 81666, shorts at 83311, short-term range likely grinding within this zone.
Interpretation:
Short-term sentiment is recovering from yesterday's panic, but volume is lacking, so the rebound won't be strong, mainly consolidation. From a cycle perspective, this is a normal bull market consolidation—whale short positions are hedges, not shorts; spot capital is just rotating sectors, the macro structure remains intact. Medium to long-term holders remain steady; consolidation and bottoming is a window for phased accumulation.
Just a personal view, trading is ultimately self-reliant
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Will Tesla's earnings report this quarter exceed expectations?
The delivery numbers are already out, and exceeding expectations is a fact, but this positive news has basically been priced in early. The real bottleneck is the profit margin, not the sales volume.
The current consensus EPS is about $0.43, and it has been adjusted downward recently. Energy storage deployment also hasn't met expectations. In Q2, there was a case where revenue exceeded expectations but EPS missed significantly, causing the stock price to plummet. That lesson is still fresh.
I feel that this time it will most likely be close to consensus or slightly below expectations. It's hard to truly "exceed expectations" in a meaningful way. The market's 68% prediction seems a bit high; I lean towards No.
Robotaxi is indeed expanding rapidly, but that's more about future narratives and conference calls, with limited impact on this quarter's numbers.
This does not constitute any advice.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 A token dropping from $10 to $2 only indicates an 80% price decline; it does not alone prove that it is cheap.
"Whales are accumulating" or "the next bull market will return to historical highs" are just market narratives without support from capital flow and on-chain data.
A sharp drop may also mean the market is reassessing the project's value. To judge if it is undervalued, one must look at fundamentals and real demand, not just how expensive it used to be.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Focus Shifting to Monetization? 📊
Netflix will report its Q3 financial results on October 20 after the US market closes, guiding for revenue of ~$12.86B (up ~12% YoY).
However, the main story is the strategy shift: revenue growth is transitioning from pure subscriber volume to monetization—specifically periodic price hikes, ad-supported tiers, and expanded Average Revenue per User (ARPU).
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Who has been mainly transferring BTC to exchanges during this recent downturn?
On-chain data shows: short-term holders transfer in about 2200 BTC per hour on average within 4 hours, while long-term holders only about 480 BTC, roughly one-fifth of the former.📉
❓ How to interpret these numbers?
1️⃣ Short-term holders: the transfer-in volume is the 4th highest since the rally started in August, but the peak is already lower than on October 8.
2️⃣ Long-term holders: on October 8, it surged to about 3700 BTC per hour, now back to around 480 BTC, a drop of about 87%.
3️⃣ Transferring to exchanges ≠ necessarily selling, but it is the most direct signal of potential selling pressure.
📌 In this downturn, those sending coins to exchanges are mainly recent buyers; the long-term holders are generally stable, and the short-term selling pressure is weaker than on October 8.
Two reminders for friends with light positions:
· Short-term holders’ transfers in are still at high levels since August, short-term volatility may not be over, so leave some room for leverage and position.
· Watching changes in this flow is more revealing of who is selling than watching a single candlestick.
Are you holding without moving this round, or have you also transferred coins to exchanges?👇
The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; please be cautious of risks.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #OnChainData #LongTermHoldersRenting GPUs to the AI company CoreWeave, the people who lent it money have been rushing to buy insurance these past two days, fearing it won't be able to repay. The first to feel the pain in this AI wave is actually the sublessor.KOSPI's early rebound shows that dip demand can return quickly after a circuit-breaker session. Yet foreign investors were still net sellers early Oct 16, so the move has not resolved whether external capital is prepared to support the chip rebound. Official monitoring may steady nerves, but flow persistence remains unproven.
#KOSPIReboundFlowWatch On October 16, today in the small coins I am paying attention to ALEO, STRK, and INJ.
ALEO is currently priced at about $0.0454, up approximately 56.7% in the past 7 days and about 200.7% in the past 30 days. Ledger now supports USDCx on Aleo, and the Arc mainnet has also launched. Progress has been made on implementation, but this increase is quite significant, so we need to watch for dilution pressure from token issuance going forward. Support is first seen at 0.0374–0.0384, with resistance at 0.048–0.050; wait for a pullback to find an opportunity.
STRK is currently priced at about $0.0841, up approximately 55.8% in the past 7 days and about 224.8% in the past 30 days. Starknet is discussing whether to research an independent L1 with quantum security; this is still in the voting and research phase and does not mean a migration decision has been made. The recent increase is large, and unlocked supply should also be monitored. Support is seen at 0.0717–0.0768; wait for a retracement to hold.
INJ is currently priced at about $9.18, up approximately 26.1% in the past 24 hours, 26.1% in the past 7 days, and 56.1% in the past 30 days. Institutional infrastructure has made progress, and there was a volume surge and strengthening on the 4-hour chart, but the short-term rise is sharp. Do not chase here; wait for a pullback around 8.55–8.85 to hold, then see if there is an opportunity.#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Tesla finally unveiled the new generation Roadster last night. They started taking $50,000 deposits back in 2017, and it's been delayed for almost nine years.
The live demo was indeed impressive: the car clings upside down on a curve, then flies out doing flips, hovers, and lands; it accelerates from zero to sixty miles per hour in under a second, using SpaceX thrusters and fans. But they gave no concrete information, no price announced, and mass production won't start until 2028. This car is basically a small-batch high-end toy, and CNBC openly said it basically has no impact on the company's finances. Last year, Altman even posted a screenshot of his cancellation on X, having waited seven and a half years and deciding not to wait any longer.
What will determine the stock price is the Q3 earnings report after the market closes next Wednesday. Q3 deliveries were 486,500 vehicles, better than the market expectation of over 460,000, but still about 2% less year-over-year, with energy storage installations at 13.7 GWh. What everyone wants to hear about are profit margins, Robotaxi, and robot progress; no matter how cool the flying car is, it won't change the valuation.
On the chip front, Nvidia dropped more than 2% intraday on Thursday to around $216, AMD fell about 6%, Micron dropped 5% in early trading but closed up 1.87%. Jensen Huang said that CoreWeave's "financing costs are actually decreasing," which helped recover much of the new cloud providers' losses.
With interest rates weighing down, tech stocks are now news-driven, moving several points up or down on a single headline. Before Tesla's earnings report comes out, watch the market carefully and hold your position for now $TSLA $FIL Solstice (Network Version 29) is scheduled to activate on October 19, 2026, mainly to accomplish two things:
1. Decommission the Fil+ system
Previously, verified data (Fil+) could obtain higher quality-adjusted power. After the upgrade, new sectors will be calculated at the highest quality power regardless of content, and verification registration and DataCap-related functions will be frozen.
2. Change in block reward distribution
Previously, 100% of block rewards went to miners. After the upgrade, the rewards will be split:
A portion will continue to go to consensus miners
A portion will be allocated to Service Orchestrators (service providers responsible for bringing paid demand)
And some may be burned
The consensus share will gradually decrease, while the service share will gradually increase according to actual paid demand targets.
Importance assessment
Token economics: Changes how rewards are distributed, attempting to shift incentives from "stacking storage" to "bringing real paid usage"
For miners: New sectors will no longer differ based on whether data is "verified," and miners will share part of the rewards with Orchestrators
For network direction: Clearly moving towards a service economy and paid demand. The short-term price impact is moderate. This is a structural change, not a direct supply reduction, so market reactions are usually less immediate than at the end of a vesting period
Technical risk: This is a mandatory upgrade; nodes and storage providers must upgrade
Summary
Solstice is not a minor patch but an important adjustment to the Filecoin reward mechanism, aiming to make the network focus more on real paid demand rather than simply expanding capacity. It is meaningful for the long-term direction but usually does not have as direct a short-term price catalyst effect as events like "significant supply reduction." Fell below 80,000 then pulled back to 82,000, $929 million wiped out; Pirate Chain suddenly created 39.8 million coins out of thin air, what's going on with privacy coins?
Last night’s market slapped both bulls and bears.
$BTC once dropped to 79,694 during the session, breaking below 80,000 for the first time since mid-September, but then stubbornly pulled back near 82,300, up slightly 0.8% in 24 hours. $ETH returned to 2,453, up 1%. But in the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated $929 million, with long positions liquidated $777 million, accounting for over 80%.
There’s something today exactly like last time with Zano.
Privacy coin project Pirate Chain suffered a vulnerability attack, 39.8 million ARRR coins were created out of thin air. The network is still running, but the official team has warned: do not transfer any funds until recovery is complete. The Zano rollback of one month is still fresh, and now Pirate Chain repeats the same. In the privacy coin sector, code risk is really much greater than price risk.
Someone is frantically selling BTC to buy ETH. A giant whale/institution address sold a total of 1,601 BTC in 5 days, exchanged for 132 million USDC, then bought 53,095 ETH at an average price of 2,497. This is not a small move, it’s a directional portfolio adjustment.
ETFs had a net outflow of 262 million yesterday, with net outflows for the week. The 80,000 level is being tugged back and forth, leverage has already been cleared once. Were you liquidated today? Let’s talk in the comments 👇 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix’s Q3 is a test of monetisation, not just audience growth: the key question is whether advertising can generate more revenue from existing viewers while protecting profitability. Management’s guidance of $12.86 billion in revenue and a 33.2% operating margin provides a clear benchmark. My view is cautiously positive, but the quality of any earnings beat matters—stronger ad sales and resilient engagement would be more convincing than cost reductions alone.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus 🚨🚨🚨 Bitcoin price trends after the last three U.S. midterm elections
In 2014, the bottom was reached 71 days after the election, with a drop of -46.7%.
In 2018, the bottom was reached 39 days after the election, with a drop of -50.6%.
In 2022, the bottom was reached 1 day after the election, with a drop of -14.9%.
After every midterm election, Bitcoin prices hit new lows, creating a golden pit.
What will happen in 2026?
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC The moment the surgical light turned on, what I saw was not a market trend line, but an aortic aneurysm that was passive and could rupture at any time.
This new MSCI regulation is essentially a preoperative assessment. Non-operating companies—those that have turned their balance sheets into Bitcoin vaults—are being put on the imaging examination table. November 11th is the final list; the procedure takes effect after the market close on November 30th. The time window in between is exactly a period of myocardial stunning, with extremely unstable hemodynamics.
Let's first talk about the pathological mechanism. Targets like Strategy and Metaplanet essentially transform the company's left ventricle into a leveraged crypto pump. Their stock prices are not supported by core business cash flow but rely on Bitcoin as an allogeneic vascular bridge. The problem is that MSCI's index inclusion criteria assess "operating" status—that is, whether the myocardium itself has autonomous contraction ability, not supported by an external circulatory machine. Once judged as non-operating, passive funds must reduce holdings according to the rules. This is not an emotional sell-off but a mechanical, body surface area-based, non-negotiable blood loss.
I want to emphasize one point: currently, no company has been officially removed. This is a critical preoperative diagnostic divergence. Some in the market are pricing as if "diagnosed," which is overdiagnosis and a typical iatrogenic panic. The real risk window is November 11th; all declines before that are merely symptoms, not the lesion itself.
Next, consider the linkage with tokenized US stock targets like XIWM. What are they like? Like a myocardial biopsy after transplantation—on the surface, indicators appear normal, but ischemia-reperfusion injury may suddenly manifest within hours. Tokenized US stocks play a very special role during crypto market trading hours: they serve as 24-hour continuous ECG monitoring, while the pricing power of the underlying assets remains in New York's catheterization lab. Two circulatory systems coexist, amplifying blood pressure fluctuations.
Hemodynamic deduction: if MSCI ultimately excludes, passive fund outflows will be quantitative and measurable, similar to a planned atrial septal repair surgery; if retained, the currently mistakenly punished portion will instantly restore perfusion like myocardium after coronary spasm relief. The real risk is not in the outcome but in the rebalancing window before the market close on November 30th—that is a critical point of extracorporeal circulation transition, where any sudden blood pressure drop could trigger a chain reaction of hypotension.
As for those companies propping up their balance sheets with coin prices, I must say something calmly: their balance sheet structure is very much like dilated cardiomyopathy—the ventricles get larger, the walls thinner, and stroke volume decreases. When coin prices rise, this is called leveraged thickening; when prices plateau, this is the compensation period; when prices fall, this is decompensation.
The final list has not been released; everything is still in preoperative discussion. #mscibtctreasuryrulesInflation has exploded again, how much longer does the crypto world have to endure?
September's CPI and PPI exceeded expectations for two consecutive days. Honestly, the moment I saw the data, my heart skipped a beat.
PPI soared 6.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Gasoline prices rose 20.3% in one month, diesel up 21%, and the energy shock is spreading along the supply chain into various sectors. Core PPI also jumped from 4.7% to 5.0% year-on-year.
This is not a price increase in a single category; it is systemic price pressure penetrating deeper.
Latest CME data: the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October is 71.8%, but by December, the probability of no change plummets to 7.2%, with a combined 92.8% chance of a 25 or 50 basis point rate hike. Research reports from CICC and CITIC Securities are basically consistent—no change in October, but a high likelihood of a hike in December.
So don’t fantasize about "all bad news priced in." Until rate hike expectations fade, liquidity will remain a heavy iron plate pressing down on all risk assets.
$BTC—Stable on the surface, hollow underneath
Currently around 82,000, the trend looks okay, but Glassnode’s on-chain data is worrisome. After the 80,000 buy resistance was absorbed, new buying did not effectively replenish it; support liquidity is actually thinning. New buy orders mainly cluster around 78,000, essentially passive defense, not active offense.
The meaning is clear: the surface rebound is a technical correction, not a trend reversal. Once 78,000 fails to hold, there is a vacuum below, and the drop will be rapid.
$ETH—Even worse than BTC
Currently at 2,439, the hourly chart rebounded sharply from 2,313, but $280 million liquidations occurred in 24 hours, mostly long positions, with the largest single liquidation at $11.84 million.
An interesting detail: Huang Licheng just added $250,000 margin to stubbornly hold a 25x long position, with a liquidation price at 2,333; meanwhile, another whale who opened a position at 4,101 cut losses and liquidated $13.45 million.
Old retail investors are accepting losses and exiting, while new big players are accumulating at the bottom. But overall, $ETH remains weaker than $BTC, with a weak rebound and a pattern of grinding bottom sideways.
$ZEC—Small coins are hard to profit from
Currently around 1,223, it dipped overnight to 1,179 then slightly recovered, intraday surged to 1,244 but met resistance and fell back. The rebound mainly relies on short covering, not trend-driven buying. There is heavy trapped position pressure around 1,250–1,260.
Small coins are more sensitive to news, and volatility is amplified. If you get it right, you profit; if wrong, you get hit. Poor position control means getting slapped from both sides.
Some heartfelt advice
At this stage, heavy positions are a gamble with your life. Before macro expectations become clear, all big rises and falls could be shakeouts.
Take light positions for short-term corrections, strictly use stop-losses, and don’t rush to heavily invest to recover losses. Keep steady pace; survival is more important than anything.
The market won’t stay like this forever, but the premise is you have to be in the game.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus The speech in Washington ended. Here's a summary for everyone:
Core: Federal Reserve officials acknowledge that inflation is high but are not in a hurry to raise interest rates immediately. They want to continue observing more economic data and will not tighten policy right away. There is no commitment to rate cuts; the stance is dovish but not extremely accommodative.
👉 Market reaction: U.S. Treasury yields slightly retreated, the dollar weakened, and risk appetite increased. This is the main driver behind today's cryptocurrency market rebound.
Impact on BTC trend:
1. Short term: Positive support for BTC. As long as U.S. Treasury yields do not rebound higher, BTC has a chance to maintain this oversold rebound; however, this is just a corrective rally, not a new major uptrend.
2. Key chart point: Holding the 81600 support level preserves the rebound structure; if this level is broken, the rebound ends, and BTC will fall again, with altcoins diving simultaneously.
3. Hidden risk: The speech leaves open the possibility of future rate hikes if inflation continues to rebound. If inflation data rises again, expectations will quickly turn hawkish, suppressing BTC.CPI flipped overnight, and the market just threw the table😱
Honestly, I didn’t expect this wave either.
I originally thought it would just be a data shake-up, a quick spike, and then the necessary washout would be done and dusted. But CPI at 3.7% completely tore apart the previous cooling narrative, and PPI month-on-month at 1.3% set the strongest record in over four years. Both exceeded expectations simultaneously, and the market wasn’t even given time to react.
$BTC spiked just above 80,000, triggering $485 million in liquidations across the network within an hour, with longs accounting for $464 million—$ETH alone bore $200 million [reference:2]. What does this mean? Huang Licheng rolled from 56,000 to 12.25 million in 4 months, and this spike knocked him back to 21,800, wasting over half a year and even losing money [reference:3]. $ETH fell below 2400; the next technical support level to hold is the psychological 2000 mark.
Many were confident that "after one round of decline, the bad news was priced in." But this inflation hammer clearly wasn’t priced in advance. The core contradiction has changed—the market is now repricing whether the Fed will move in October or hike in December, with CME’s probability of an October rate hike more than doubling from a low point. The path is unclear, and that’s the most dangerous part.
Inflation not falling, US Treasury yields surging, the dollar strengthening, risk assets all taking hits, crypto can’t stay immune. $BTC probing 70,000 is not alarmist, and $ETH at 2000 should be mentally prepared for repeated tests.
But one thing must be clear: this macro-driven sell-off, with spikes and chain liquidations, will be especially frequent. Being right on direction doesn’t mean you can endure the process; those heavily leveraged and stubborn often die before dawn. Light positions, stop losses, and keeping ammo are more important than anything🙏.
Outside the market, it’s not peaceful either. TSMC’s Q3 net profit hit a record high of 763.1 billion NTD, up 68.7% year-on-year, with AI computing power fundamentals truly strong, but gross margin dropped 1.3 points quarter-on-quarter, and early 2nm mass production still held it back. Netflix reports earnings on October 20, with market expectations of $12.878 billion revenue; the ad business is seen as the next growth engine, but whether the path from $3 billion to $7.5 billion can be realized depends on that report.
Tech stocks and crypto are now grasshoppers on the same rope. AI narratives support risk appetite, giving crypto some breathing room; if tech stocks collapse with macro, $BTC won’t escape either.
At this point, don’t chase shorts or rush to bottom-fish. 80,000 has been tested three times; breaking it means a real crash, not breaking it means a fake fall. Wait for stabilization signals—volume surge with bullish candles, clean chip rotation, and no further macro deterioration—then gradually buy in.
Don’t make decisions in panic.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Distinguishing strength and weakness during a pullback is more important than bottom fishing
Even though prices are falling, the quality is completely different.
Most people focus on the candlestick chart asking "Where is the bottom?" I care more about—who is holding firm, and who can no longer hold on.
$BTC: Fell about 3.5% in 24 hours, about 4% in the past week, but looking over a month, the drop is actually only about 2%. Compared to other coins, $BTC is still holding up, but calling it "turning strong"? Not quite. The 80,000 level needs no overthinking—round number levels never spontaneously develop support. During the CPI shock, transaction volume expanded 5 times within 30 minutes, and the support near 83,000 didn’t hold, indicating huge disagreement between bulls and bears at this level. Next, it depends on whether 80,000 can hold and gradually recover. If it holds but can’t recover steadily, downward revision expectations must follow; if it can stabilize and climb higher, then that’s a turnaround. A smaller drop is not a reason to add positions, just an observation window.
$ETH: Under more pressure. Fell about 5.6% in 24 hours, once cumulatively down over 6% after CPI release, and the monthly chart is also weakening. Less gain before? Doesn’t mean safe; weakness can persist. Short-term double support around 2,350 (horizontal line + ascending trendline), which has repeatedly held since August 23, showing real buying defense. But conversely, if this combined support breaks, the downside space opens. Don’t get excited about rebounds yet; the key is whether it can continuously reclaim lost ground—if it bounces a little then retreats, it’s still weak. On Binance, $ETH had over $157 million liquidated in 24 hours, longs got wiped out badly.
$SOL: Fell about 4.4% in one day, nearly 7% in a week. It has dropped to the 100-101 range, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages pressing above 103, showing clear short-term weakness. Don’t assume the $100 round number will definitely hold as support. More noteworthy is that within 4 hours after CPI release, $SOL open interest increased by 7.95%—leverage is still increasing during the decline, and once this structure breaks, deleveraging stampede will be rapid. Wait for it to show its stance: whether it can hold and then attack upward, or pause and continue downward, these are two completely different scenarios.
The macro environment isn’t favorable either.
CPI year-over-year at 3.7% exceeded expectations, PPI month-over-month surged to 1.3%, year-over-year 6.3%, the largest increase since March 2022. Energy prices are the main driver and have already transmitted to other goods and services. The probability of rate hikes before year-end approaches 90%. Meanwhile, $BTC spot ETF has seen a net outflow of about $859 million over the past six trading days, indicating institutional buying is shrinking short-term.
But here is a notable divergence signal—$BTC ETF still has a net inflow of about $2.09 billion over the past 30 days, while $ETH has a net outflow of about $319 million, and $SOL about $33.2 million net outflow. Institutions are not fully retreating; money is concentrating into $BTC, while altcoins are being drained. Another on-chain anomaly: ETFs are flowing out, but the total Bitcoin holdings of whales have risen to 3.03 million $BTC, the fastest monthly increase since February.
At this point, distinguishing strength and weakness is far more important than guessing the bottom.
Don’t rush to catch the weak, and don’t blindly chase the strong. Wait for the market to send its own signals.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $SOL has been grinding around 105 for the past few weeks. On the surface, we see ETFs withdrawing funds, but behind the scenes, a bigger event is lining up to launch.
On October 7, Samsung announced that Samsung Wallet will integrate USDC on Solana for cross-border remittances, opening in the U.S. in the last week of October, initially covering 82 million Galaxy phones. The feature is built into the wallet, with currency exchange and transfers all embedded; the blockchain runs in the background, and users won’t even feel like they’re using a blockchain.
The significance lies in the entry point. Previously, stablecoins on the chain mostly circulated between exchanges and DeFi. This time, an ordinary phone user can just tap to send money, and the funds will make a round trip on Solana. According to the foundation, stablecoin transactions on this chain have already exceeded $5.25 trillion this year, with PayPal and Western Union also operating on it.
Meanwhile, the U.S. SOL spot ETF has seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days from October 5 to 15, totaling about $37.8 million. Institutional money is retreating, but the user-side pipeline is being laid out.
The price currently only reflects the first half. Even if only a small portion of those 82 million phones actually start using it, on-chain transfers and fees will move first, and the coin price usually follows with a lag.
After launch, watch whether the daily number of USDC transfers on the Solana chain rises—that will be the first signal that this news has materialized.