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The biggest positive news this weekend: TACO is back, and storage has also received a "stop the decline" card. To start with the conclusion: the overall news this weekend is mostly positive, and the storage sector has conditions for a rebound on Monday, but it cannot yet be defined as a reversal. Macroeconomically, Trump is once again playing TACO; industrially, SK Hynix and Samsung have secured long-term cooperation strong enough to refute the idea that "AI capital expenditure has peaked"; however, oil prices remain above $100, and deleveraging in the South Korean market is not over, so short-term volatility will not be small. The most important change this weekend is that Trump suddenly paused airstrikes on Iran. After 13 consecutive nights of bombing Iran, the Pentagon suddenly halted operations on Friday, and Iran subsequently stated that as long as the US does not resume attacks, Iran will continue the ceasefire. The US Ambassador to the UN said that Trump is "leaving some room for negotiations." The market is already familiar with this script: push the conflict to the limit, wait for oil prices, inflation, and the stock market to start feeling pressure, then proactively step back halfway to gain negotiation leverage—a standard TACO trade. But this time, we cannot just look at the two words "ceasefire." The Houthi forces attacked oil facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, over the weekend, with Yanbu being an important route for Saudi Arabia to export crude oil to the Red Sea bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, although the US and Iran have temporarily stopped, the conflict is beginning to spread to the Red Sea and the Caspian Sea, and Brent crude remains above $100. (Reuters) Therefore, the ideal market scenario on Monday is: continued restraint between the US and Iran, a drop in crude oil, and a risk appetite recovery for tech stocks. Conversely, if attacks in the Red Sea escalate, oil prices surge again, and the benefits brought by TACO will soon be offset by inflation and US Treasury yields. On the storage front, the real hard positive news this weekend comes from South Korea. SK Group and a US tech company announced a long-term cooperation totaling $750 billion, including SK Hynix's cooperation with $NVDA as part of an AI plan exceeding $500 billion. Both parties will jointly develop the next generation of HBM and supply HBM4 long-term for the Vera Rubin platform. SK Telecom will also build a 2GW-level AI data center planned to go online in 2027. Meanwhile, Samsung signed a memorandum of understanding with $AVGO for cooperation up to $200 billion, covering HBM, AI accelerators, sub-2nm foundry, and advanced packaging. The combined cooperation amounts to $950 billion. (Reuters) This figure should not be simply understood as $950 billion in locked-in revenue. Samsung currently signed an MOU, and SK's $500 billion figure with Nvidia also includes data center and infrastructure construction. But the signal it sends is very clear: AI companies are now worried not about having too much storage, but about not getting enough HBM, advanced packaging, and data center capacity in the coming years. This echoes Google's increased CapEx. The market previously traded on the idea that "AI investment is about to peak," but the industry side now answers that Nvidia, Broadcom, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all locking in future supply in advance. There is also a tariff news this weekend that is easy to misread. The US set a comprehensive tariff of up to 12.5% on South Korean goods, which looks unfavorable to Samsung and SK Hynix at first glance. But the US Trade Representative's exemption list explicitly includes HTSUS 8542.32 "Electronic Integrated Circuits: Memory" in the exemption scope. Therefore, this round of new tariffs will not directly hit imported storage chips from the US; whether finished products like SSDs are affected depends on specific product codes. (USTR official document) However, positive news does not mean you can blindly chase on Monday. Last Friday, $MU fell about 7%, SK Hynix's US ADR dropped 8.8%, and the storage sector is still in a high-volatility deleveraging phase. South Korean regulators also moved up the 30 million KRW margin requirement for single-stock leveraged ETFs to July 31, so Samsung and SK Hynix may still face passive reduction pressure. (Reuters) So my judgment is: the weekend news is clearly better than market expectations at Friday's close. $Micron(MU)$, $SanDisk(SNDK)$, $Western Digital(WDC)$, and $Seagate Technology(STX)$ all have a basis for sentiment recovery, but this looks more like a "stop the decline catalyst" rather than a confirmed reversal. What will truly determine whether storage can enter a second wave of rally is Seagate's earnings report on Tuesday, followed by Microsoft's statement on AI capital expenditure on Wednesday and Amazon's on Thursday. In summary: TACO has bought the market some breathing room, the $950 billion cooperation reconfirms long-term demand, but for storage to truly reverse, oil prices need to cool down, South Korea's deleveraging must end, and Microsoft and Amazon must continue to pay for AI investment. The launch of Aave V4 mainnet has driven a reevaluation of underlying liquidity structures. Funds are concentrated in a single hub and shared by different spokes with underlying liquidity, significantly reducing cold start costs and fragmented consumption in new markets. If demand for loans on the spoke port surges and capital efficiency continues to improve, it will drive $AAVE capital inflows and outflows to the market to achieve structural recovery. If a specific Spoke triggers a wave of Hub pool withdrawals due to liquidation rule issues, the liquidity revaluation logic will fail.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard #韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单 #黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信 and endorsed by industry collectives565 billion USD. It's not that you're seeing things—it's Visa's just-adjusted June data—Base's monthly stablecoin movement far left the $ETH mainnet far behind. What does this mean? This means the underlying narrative of crypto payments is being completely rewritten. Ethereum was once the absolute king of DeFi, but in the payments sector, it was too slow, too expensive, and too formal. Base is so powerful not because of its advanced technology, but because it's cheap and fast, backed by Coinbase, the gateway that can bring both the elderly and elderly into Web3. Visa's data this time isn't meant to boost L2s—it's meant to prove them wrong. The payment layer isn't really about consensus algorithms; it's about who can make users spend $USDC without feeling anything. Ethereum mainnet is now like a custom suit for Paris Fashion Week—attractive, expensive, and upscale, but the market aunties don't need it. Base is that Uniqlo piece—don't laugh, it's worn worldwide. Some people are still wondering, "Isn't Base also part of the Ethereum ecosystem?" Saying things like this is like saying your money is in Yu'ebao and still counts in the banking system. Ecosystem ownership is nominal; capital flows are real. On-chain liquidity is being voted on with real money, and 565 billion has already been invested. $ETH can still fight? Yes, but the keys to the payment layer may no longer be in its hands. Base is seizing the demand for stablecoins this time, while Ethereum is still busy with technical upgrades. Steady progress is true, but the market waits for no one. I won't chase the highs, but I will keep an eye on the circulating supply of $USDC in the Base ecosystem. Pay for this, who🐋 Whale Watch: Ondo Finance $ONDO represents a structural bridge between Wall Street capital markets and public DeFi infrastructure. Below is an institutional breakdown of its product architecture, L1 infrastructure, tokenomics, and systemic risk.
Organizational Design: Ondo operates through a binocular model. Corporate SPVs handle regulatory compliance, custody relationships, and off-chain asset issuance, while independent DAOs manage on-chain open-source software such as Flux Finance.
OUSG Institutional Return: Constructed for eligible buyers (net worth over $5 million) under SEC Rule 3c-7. Primarily backed by BlackRock's BUIDL fund, it enables 24/7 instant minting/redemption and is enforced through a hard-coded smart contract whitelist.
USDY (Retail Yield Note): A Regulation S tokenized note backed by U.S. Treasury bonds and bank deposits, with Ankura Trust acting as the collateral agent. Payments are funded by underlying interest, and issuers capture net interest margins.
USDY vs. rUSDY: USDY accumulates gains through price appreciation. rUSDY expands its token balance through daily automatic rebase wrapping contracts, maintaining a fixed $1.00 price point.
Ondo Chain: A dedicated L1 optimized for institutional clearing and settlement. It adopts the Tendermint PoS consensus mechanism, equipped with permissioned financial institution validators, RWA collateral staking, and gas fees paid natively in USDY.
Flux Finance: A modified version of Compound v2, creating an on-chain Treasury bond repo market. Eligible buyers post permissioned OUSG collateral to borrow the permissionless stablecoin USDC, provided by public DeFi users.
$ONDO Tokenomics: A fixed supply of 10 billion tokens, distributed across 52.1% ecosystem, 33% protocol development, 12.9% private sales, and 2% community. $ONDO grants protocol governance rights over Flux and Ondo Chain, but does not claim the company's cash flow.
Risk Matrix: Key vulnerabilities include legal regulatory changes for tokenized notes, multi-signature upgrade keys, Federal Reserve rate cuts to squeeze Treasury yields, and cross-chain bridge security budgets.
Strategic Outlook: Ondo demonstrates how institutional RWAs can scale by pairing compliant gated assets with permissionless lending infrastructure, setting the standard for institutional on-chain finance.You might not have noticed that Ethereum quietly changed a new underlying element in the Pectra upgrade in May 2025. It's not about how much gas fees have dropped, nor how much blob throughput has multiplied. It's the very concept of "accounts." Since Ethereum launched in 2015, everyone has gotten used to one setup: you have two types of accounts. One is the External Owned Account (EOA), which is the kind you use in MetaMask, controlled by private keys. The other is the contract account, which is code-controlled. EOA is simple and direct, but extremely fragile. If you lose your private key, you lose it; if you get hacked, it's gone. If you want to do batch operations, you have to sign every single transaction. Without gas fees, you can't move. EIP-7702 broke through this wall. What exactly did it do? Simply put: EIP-7702 allows your EOA to temporarily "borrow" the ability of smart contracts. You don't need to migrate to a brand-new smart wallet. You don't need to deploy new contracts. You only need to sign an authorization, and your regular wallet can do things that previously only smart accounts could do. Batch execution of trades—no need to approve first and then swap; sign in two steps, done in one operation. Gas payment on behalf — the project team can pay the gas fee for you, or you can pay gas with USDC. Spending limit—you can set a daily spending limit for your wallet. Recovery mechanism—losing private keys does not result in permanent asset loss. Sounds like a small UX improvement? No. This is about changing "who can use Ethereum."ETH really surged today, not just a small rebound.
Current price 1,952, up 4.20% in 24h. Over the weekend it hovered around 1,860-1,885, and in one day it jumped nearly 90 dollars, with the 24h high of 1,952.98 just made moments ago. This level is not reached casually—it's the upper boundary of the ascending channel since June 26, and also the level of 1,945 that ETH failed to break on July 22. Today is the third time hitting this resistance.
Why did ETH suddenly surge so strongly today? I found three reasons, the first being the most important:
First, ETH/BTC broke through an 11-month downtrend line. This is a signal that technical analysts have been waiting for. Analyst Ted Pillows said: "Ethereum could start outperforming Bitcoin heavily now"—ETH may start to significantly outperform BTC. From August 2025 until now, ETH/BTC has been in a descending channel, and today the upper boundary of this channel was broken. Technically, this is the first confirmation signal that ETH's mid-term weakness is over. Capital reacted immediately; today ETH rose 4.20%, BTC only 1.65%, and the exchange rate surged in one day.
Second, 1,950-1,960 is a concentrated short position zone, currently being crushed. CoinGlass data shows a large amount of short positions piled up in this area. ETH's current price of 1,952 has already entered this zone; if the daily candle closes above 1,953, it will trigger a chain liquidation, forcing shorts to cover and pushing the price up—this explains why today's volume reached 5.9 billion, significantly higher than usual.
Third, ETH ETFs continue to see net inflows. Recent trading days show a net inflow of 37.47 million, with BlackRock ETHA alone buying 52.7 million. Institutions have been accumulating at the 1,850-1,900 level, while retail investors remain fearful (index at 27), a typical bottom characteristic. Since Q3 began, ETH has risen 22.98%, far exceeding the historical quarterly average of 8.86%, making it the strongest Q3 since 2022.
Technical analysis (based on real-time price):
Current price 1,952, breaking through the 1,945-1,953 resistance band (failed on 7/22, today is the third attempt)
Upper resistance: 1,953 (breaking now) → 1,981 (100-day SMA) → 2,000 (psychological level) → 2,009 (MA100, resisted 4 times since mid-June)
Lower support: 1,927 (just broken, now support) → 1,900 → 1,850 (lower boundary of ascending channel, holding this keeps the channel valid) → 1,828 (20-day SMA)
1,950-1,960 is a short concentration zone; breaking it triggers chain liquidations
1,900-1,910 and 1,955-1,965 have large leveraged positions
My judgment: today's close is critical. If the daily candle closes above 1,953, the breakout is confirmed technically, next target is 1,981 (100-day SMA), then a tough fight at 2,000 and MA100 (2,009). This time is different from the previous four attempts to break MA100—ETH/BTC has already broken out, providing exchange rate support, so ETH is not fighting alone.
But risks are clear:
First, leverage is heavily stacked. Open interest increased by 600,000 ETH in 2 days, total open interest at 14.6 million ETH, a new high since June 7. Funding rates briefly turned negative on Thursday. At this leverage level, if the FOMC turns hawkish, chain liquidations could be more violent than the rise.
Second, chasing longs at 1,952 is very risky. From 1,908 to 1,952, a 44-dollar jump in one day without pullback, RSI on 4H is near overbought. Chasing at the moment of resistance breakout risks a fakeout and a retest of 1,927, which would trap you for a 25-dollar loss.
Third, FOMC is tomorrow. Once Powell speaks, all technical levels become meaningless. Hawkish → ETH, a highly elastic asset, will be hit first; a drop from 1,952 back to 1,850 is possible.
Trading strategy (based on my risk preference):
For longs at 1,850-1,870: best position. Move stop loss to 1,890 to let profits run. Hold if 1,953 holds, target 1,981 → 2,000. Cut half if breaks 1,927.
For longs near 1,890: hold if 1,953 holds, stop loss at 1,910. Close if breaks 1,927.
No position: do not chase at 1,952. Wait for either a pullback to 1,927-1,935 without breaking to try a light long (5% position), stop loss 1,910, target 1,981; or wait for daily confirmation of breakout above 1,953 and then a pullback without break to enter, stop loss 1,935.
Chasing above 2,000 is the dumbest move; MA100 at 2,009 will likely push price back. 2,000-2,009 is a zone to reduce positions.
Medium to long-term faith positions: staggered entries at 1,825-1,850, stop loss 1,780 (break of ascending channel lower boundary), target 2,060+ (channel upper boundary).
ETH/BTC exchange rate is a key signal today. If ETH continues to outperform BTC this week, altseason money is really starting to move. Today is day one, but this strength (+4.20% vs +1.65%) deserves attention. I used to say ETH is a "follower," but today I have to change that—ETH is trying to lead this rebound.
Final words: ETH is fighting the most important technical battle since June today. If the daily candle closes firmly above 1,953, next targets are 2,000 and MA100. But with FOMC tomorrow, chasing longs at 1,952 is betting on Powell being dovish. Don't heavy bet on direction the day before FOMC; this is a lesson I paid for with real money.
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展
$ETH DataHunter Macro Research Report · July 27, 2026
📋 Summary of this issue
With only two days left until the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, the market shows a rare high level of divergence in recent years regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction. CME Fed Funds futures data indicate the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July has surged from 13% a week ago to 38%; the interest rate swap market shows about a 30% chance of a hike and a 70% chance of no change. Such significant divergence so close to the meeting date is rare in recent years.
This article analyzes the core highlights and possible scenarios of this meeting from three dimensions: oil price shocks, Waller's style, and internal FOMC divisions.
🛢️ 1. Oil Prices: From 70 to 100, the direct trigger for rate hike expectations
The most direct driver of the sharp rise in rate hike expectations is the surge in oil prices.
On July 23, Brent crude oil closed above $100 per barrel for the first time since May, marking a 25% increase since the June Fed meeting. The oil price breaking the $100 mark directly triggered market concerns about inflation rising again. The head of interest rate strategy at Bank of America stated: "The July Fed meeting is definitely 'live.' Whether current monetary policy is restrictive is itself a big question. And oil prices are rising again now."
Because energy costs are highly correlated with inflation expectations, the rise in oil prices is fundamentally changing the market's judgment on the Fed's policy path. Previously, the market expected U.S. inflation to continue slowing, possibly prompting a policy shift, but the recent oil price surge has revived rate hike expectations. PGIM's chief U.S. economist described next week's meeting as "almost a 50-50 chance."
The direction of oil prices is the direction of rate expectations.
🔇 2. Waller's "New Rule": No guidance, the market guesses on its own
Another major source of market divergence is Fed Chair Waller's communication style, which is completely different from his predecessor.
Since taking office in May, Waller has clearly stated he will abolish the Fed's long-standing practice of providing the market with advance signals on the interest rate path, believing that forward guidance unnecessarily constrains policymakers when economic conditions change. Earlier this month, Waller testified to Congress expressing "zero tolerance" for persistent high inflation but gave almost no clues about the policy path.
Nomura Securities expects Waller will not provide substantive forward guidance at the post-FOMC press conference.
This means the most valuable information from this meeting will no longer be the rate decision itself, but the dissenting votes, statement wording, and Waller's tone. Bloomberg expects Waller to maintain a hawkish stance, emphasizing that inflation remains too high and leaving open the possibility of a September rate hike.
Bianco Research's president summarized: "No forward guidance means we will frequently see probability distributions of 20%, 30%, 40%. The market is transitioning to this new way of thinking."
⚖️ 3. Inside the FOMC: Hawks gathering, possible voting splits
Voices supporting rate hikes are accumulating.
Dallas Fed President Logan is currently the only FOMC voting member publicly calling for a rate hike. Cleveland Fed President Mester and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari may also join the opposition. PGIM economists note: "Hawkish sentiment inside the Fed is reaching a critical mass."
At the June meeting, the Fed unanimously voted 12-0 to keep rates unchanged. If at the July meeting Logan and Mester formally vote against and call for a hike, it means the Fed's hawkish forces have escalated from "opposing continued hints of rate cuts" to "demanding an immediate rate hike."
There are also forces supporting a wait-and-see approach.
June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, significantly below the previous three-month average of 164,000; June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, signaling cooling inflation. Natixis expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in July and maintain this stance throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley also believes recent data indicate the Fed will hold steady in July. Influential voices like New York Fed President Williams lean toward waiting until September to decide, allowing more time to observe inflation trends.
Two forces are forming a standoff within the FOMC.
🔮 4. Two scenario simulations
Scenario 1: Hold rates steady (probability about 60-65%)
The Fed keeps the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the statement wording may be hawkish, emphasizing ongoing inflation risks and the need to monitor energy price shocks. Waller does not rule out a September rate hike at the press conference.
· Market impact: After short-term volatility, gradual stabilization. BTC is likely to fluctuate between 63,600-65,400; if the statement is dovish, a rebound to 66,000 is possible.
· Key points: Are there dissenting votes? How many? Does the wording mention "additional policy tightening"?
Scenario 2: Surprise 25 basis point hike (probability about 35-38%)
The Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting.
· Market impact: Sharp short-term sell-off in risk assets. BTC may quickly fall below 63,000 and even test 61,000-62,000. U.S. Treasury yields continue rising, and the dollar index strengthens.
· Key points: How does Waller explain this decision? Is it "one-off" or "the start of a hiking cycle"?
📌 5. Implications for the crypto market
Currently, BTC is trading in an extremely low-volume sideways range between 64,000-64,600, with the market in the "calm before the storm" ahead of the FOMC decision.
Three key time points (Beijing time):
· July 30 (Thursday) 2:00 AM: FOMC rate decision announced
· July 30 (Thursday) 2:30 AM: Waller press conference
· July 30 (Thursday) 8:30 PM: U.S. Q2 GDP preliminary and June PCE data released simultaneously
For traders, the core uncertainty of this meeting lies in Waller's "no guidance" style combined with the oil price shock, making it impossible for the market to price in advance as before. CME futures trading volume is 50% higher than at last July's decision, directly reflecting this uncertainty.
Operationally: Be cautious and trade less before the direction is clear. If the meeting signals hawkishness (dissenting votes + hawkish wording), BTC may retest lows; if the statement is neutral or dovish, BTC may stabilize and rebound near 63,600. Waiting before the FOMC is part of the trade.
DataHunter | Understanding the market through dataRebound ≠ reversal—risk-on, this anger is slashed with a knife. $ETH surged 4%, but $QQQ was dazzlingly green, and the market was waiting—whoever showed weakness first would set today's tone.
Look at the numbers
$BTC 65,283 +1.45% $ETH 1,952 +4.14%
$QQQ -1.12% $SPY +0.10% $IBIT -0.82%
$DXY -0.15% $GLD +0.10%
and discuss the situation. Hormuz and crude oil are still feeding unpredictable inflation expectations, while US Treasury yields and the shadow of Fed tightening continue to weigh on valuations. The dollar is not a backdrop; a simple shift in the exchange rate line can disrupt the rhythm of $QQQ $SPY. Today, it's not surprising if any switch gets touched on this plate.
Dismantling them one by one. $ETH is clearly more elastic than $BTC, short-term risk appetite is rising, but $QQQ is sinking downward, and money is shrinking into defense. $IBIT Weaker than spot $BTC, a weakness in ETFs means the spot market isn't that strong; $DXY Only when risk assets can breathe a sigh of relief can they catch their breath, but once tightened, they quickly turn hostile; $GLD Still quietly rising, haven't fully withdrawn safe-haven funds, don't be fooled by the surface buzz.
When the market opens, don't rush to add to your position. If the signal isn't fully given, whoever shows weakness first will help us set the direction.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零1. Overall Morning Session Overview As of 07:00 Beijing time on July 27, the crypto market rebounded sharply in the early session on Monday, with Bitcoin quickly rising and regaining the $65,000 mark, while Ethereum followed suit. After a narrow consolidation over the weekend, buying momentum was released in early Asian trading, and market sentiment slightly recovered; However, with the Federal Reserve's rate decision approaching this week, overall trading remains cautious, with no significant increase in volume. Altcoins rose broadly along with the broader market, with themes that had previously pulled back showing a slight rebound, and the overall profit-making effect in the market rebounded compared to the weekend. 2. Real-time Trends of Mainstream Coins 1. Bitcoin (BTC) • Real-time quote: $65,333, 24-hour increase 0.95% • 24-hour trading range: $64,200 - $65,420 • Market analysis: Rapid rally in the morning, reclaiming the key $65,000 level, ending a two-day weak adjustment in the short term. In the short term, resistance is at $65,800 (near previous highs), with core support at $64,800 below; This rebound is a technical correction, with limited incremental funds before the decision, so it should not be considered a trend reversal for now. • Core drivers: The US Dollar Index edged down slightly in Asian trading, combined with concentrated bottom-fishing funds at weekend lows, driving a short-term rebound in coin prices; The market is still awaiting the final guidance from Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. 2. Ethereum (ETH) • Real-time quote: $1,952, 24-hour increase 1.62%, stronger rebound than Bitcoin • 24-hour trading range: 1.9"DataHunter Macro Research Report" · July 27, 2026
📋 Summary of this issue
With only two days left until the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, the market shows a rare high level of divergence in recent years regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction. CME Fed Funds futures data indicate the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July has surged from 13% a week ago to 38%; the interest rate swap market shows about a 30% chance of a hike and a 70% chance of no change. Such significant divergence so close to the meeting date is rare in recent years.
This article analyzes the core highlights and possible scenarios of this meeting from three dimensions: oil price shocks, Waller's style, and internal FOMC divisions.
🛢️ 1. Oil Prices: From 70 to 100, the direct trigger for rate hike expectations
The most direct driver of the sharp rise in rate hike expectations is the surge in oil prices.
On July 23, Brent crude oil closed above $100 per barrel for the first time since May, marking a 25% increase since the June Fed meeting. The oil price breaking the $100 mark directly triggered market concerns about inflation rising again. The head of interest rate strategy at Bank of America stated: "The July Fed meeting is definitely 'live.' Whether current monetary policy is restrictive is itself a big question. And oil prices are rising again now."
Because energy costs are highly correlated with inflation expectations, the rise in oil prices is fundamentally changing the market's judgment on the Fed's policy path. Previously, the market expected U.S. inflation to continue slowing, possibly prompting a policy shift, but the recent oil price surge has revived rate hike expectations. PGIM's chief U.S. economist described next week's meeting as "almost a 50-50 split."
The direction of oil prices is the direction of rate expectations.
🔇 2. Waller's "New Rule": No guidance, the market guesses on its own
Another major source of market divergence is Fed Chair Waller's communication style, which is completely different from his predecessor's.
Since taking office in May, Waller has clearly stated he will abolish the Fed's long-standing practice of providing the market with advance signals on the interest rate path, believing that forward guidance unnecessarily constrains policymakers when economic conditions change. Earlier this month, Waller testified to Congress expressing "zero tolerance" for persistent high inflation but gave almost no clues about the policy path.
Nomura Securities expects Waller will not provide substantive forward guidance at the post-FOMC press conference.
This means the most valuable information from this meeting will no longer be the rate decision itself but the dissenting votes, statement wording, and Waller's tone. Bloomberg expects Waller to maintain a hawkish stance, emphasizing that inflation remains too high and leaving open the possibility of a September rate hike.
Bianco Research's president summarized: "No forward guidance means we will frequently see probability distributions of 20%, 30%, 40%. The market is transitioning to this new way of thinking."
⚖️ 3. Inside the FOMC: Hawks gathering, possible voting splits
Voices supporting rate hikes are accumulating.
Dallas Fed President Logan is currently the only FOMC voting member publicly calling for a rate hike. Cleveland Fed President Mester and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari may join the opposition. PGIM economists note: "Hawkish sentiment inside the Fed is reaching a critical mass."
At the June meeting, the Fed unanimously voted 12-0 to keep rates unchanged. If at the July meeting Logan and Mester formally vote against and call for a hike, it means the Fed's hawkish forces have escalated from "opposing continued hints of rate cuts" to "demanding an immediate rate hike."
There are also forces supporting a wait-and-see approach.
June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, significantly below the previous three months' average of 164,000; June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, signaling cooling inflation. Natixis expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in July and maintain this stance throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley also believes recent data indicate the Fed will hold steady in July. Influential voices like New York Fed President Williams lean toward waiting until September to decide, allowing more time to observe inflation trends.
These two forces are forming a standoff within the FOMC.
🔮 4. Two scenario simulations
Scenario 1: Hold rates steady (probability about 60-65%)
The Fed will keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the statement wording may lean hawkish, emphasizing ongoing inflation risks and the need to monitor energy price shocks. Waller will not rule out a September rate hike at the press conference.
· Market impact: After short-term volatility, gradual stabilization. BTC is likely to fluctuate between 63,600-65,400; if the statement is dovish, a rebound to 66,000 is possible.
· Key points: Are there dissenting votes? How many? Does the wording mention "additional policy tightening"?
Scenario 2: Surprise 25 basis point hike (probability about 35-38%)
The Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting.
· Market impact: Sharp short-term sell-off in risk assets. BTC may quickly fall below 63,000 and even test 61,000-62,000. U.S. Treasury yields continue rising, and the dollar index strengthens.
· Key points: How does Waller explain this decision? Is it "one-off" or "the start of a hiking cycle"?
📌 5. Implications for the crypto market
Currently, BTC is trading in an extremely low-volume sideways range between 64,000-64,600, with the market in the "calm before the storm" ahead of the FOMC decision.
Three key time points (Beijing time):
· July 30 (Thursday) 2:00 AM: FOMC rate decision announced
· July 30 (Thursday) 2:30 AM: Waller press conference
· July 30 (Thursday) 8:30 PM: U.S. Q2 GDP preliminary and June PCE data released simultaneously
For traders, the core uncertainty of this meeting lies in Waller's "no guidance" style combined with the oil price shock, making it impossible for the market to price in advance as before. CME futures trading volume is 50% higher than at last July's decision, directly reflecting this uncertainty.
Operationally: Favor watching and limited action before direction is clear. If the meeting signals hawkishness (dissenting votes + hawkish wording), BTC may retest lows; if the statement is neutral or dovish, BTC may stabilize and rebound near 63,600. Waiting before the FOMC is part of trading.
DataHunter | Understanding the market through dataAs of July 26, $ETH validator exit queues have been reset to zero, and the backlog of 2.48 million tokens to be staked forms the core liquidity conflict between highly locked on-chain tokens and market volatility and absorption.
On-chain spot supply showed a one-way contraction. The drop in validator exit queues to zero means that on-chain node unstaking selling pressure has been completely cleared, while 2.48 million $ETH are queuing to stake, pushing the total network locked value above 40.9 million tokens.
Among liquidity drivers, the strong absorption attribute of on-chain staking staking takes precedence over the emotional disturbance caused by the bill delay. The on-exchange liquid chips are continuously squeezed, significantly strengthening the market's defense against short-term selling pressure.
Upward scenario: If spot selling remains exhausted between 1870 and 1880, and 2.48 million staking funds continue to lock up the circulating market, bulls will drive price volatility and recovery. The trigger signal is that derivatives holdings are stabilizing and rebounding as spot prices stabilize, while the expiration signal is a significant reduction in the queue waiting to be staked.
Downside scenario: If macro risk appetite tightens and suppresses buying, prices will once again test the order support at 1870. The trigger signal is that spot selling pressure spreads to the staking side, while the failure signal is that validators exit the queue but remain zero.
When validators exit the queue, end the zero state, and a concentrated unlock backlog occurs, the logic of tightening on-chain supply is declared invalid.
The most critical variable to watch over the next 7 days is the consumption rate of the 2.48 million staking queue, and whether validators exit the queue and whether the heap reappears.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, progress made in the Strait navigation negotiations #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer from Google and Tesla this time?Is the crypto world really tough? Or did the US stock market show its weakness first? In the short term, it's exciting to watch, but don't rush to catch up on the signal—whoever acts impulsively in this market will suffer.
Look at the numbers
$BTC 64,440 +0.57% $ETH 1,885 +1.24%
$QQQ -1.12% $SPY +0.10% $IBIT -0.82%
$DXY +0.03% $GLD +0.10%
Crude oil and Hormuz have been shivering, and inflation expectations have never been honest. The crypto world and ETFs are still competing over risk appetite, but once the old scripts of AI and semiconductors flip the page, $QQQ's mood switch can instantly split the entire market. Qian clearly shifted toward defense, $QQQ that bit of energy couldn't hold the court at all.
$ETH Today is more elastic than $BTC, and risk appetite is still struggling to push upward, but $IBIT is a bit weaker than spot trading. ETF funds entering the market have narrowed down, indicating spot stocks aren't as aggressive. $DXY Heads are stubbornly suppressed by risk assets, $GLD still in the red, haven't even escaped all the hedging funds, just keeping a backup plan.
A barrage of analysis is fierce as a tiger, but whether the market rises or falls, Trump is still watched. Don't rush to bet; wait for clearer signals. Whoever shows weakness first will set the direction first. Let's wait and see. $BTC @OKX Chinese: @OKX Planet
7.27 BTC Weekly Report
Figure 1: The area mentioned last week that I was watching for going long after the pullback has already been touched, but it hasn't met my criteria for going long. I've been watching and waiting. Now, I'm watching whether it can avoid breaking below 673 and falling below 625, forming a trend reversal and ending this rebound.
Figure 2: The current price is at the first key swing structure of the downtrend between 82,800 and 57,750. If it breaks above 673 this week, the daily chart should continue to focus on a consolidating rebound to fill the liquidity zone above the end of May. Be cautious with short selling and focus on looking for long opportunities on pullbacks at the 4H and 1H levels.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#OKX星球话题来啦 Key conclusion: This week is a super week for U.S. stock policy setting, with the core anchor being the Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting in the early hours of July 30. The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged this time, with the focus of the game centered on the Federal Reserve Chair's statements on oil inflation and a rate hike in September. Before the meeting (Monday to Wednesday), funds were mostly on the sidelines, with the index fluctuating within a narrow range; After Thursday's decision, volatility increased, and the index shifted to a short-term direction. Overall tone: Value sectors outperform growth, Dow resilience outperforms Nasdaq; The fundamentals of the storage sector are supported, but valuations remain suppressed by interest rates, continuing a high volatility pattern. 1. Three Core Driving Variables This Week 1. Federal Reserve July Interest Rate Meeting (Core Variable) • Time: Rate decision announced at 02:00 Beijing time on July 30, Chair Wash holds press conference at 02:30 • Current pricing: CME FedWatch tool shows about 87% probability of maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% rate range, with only a 13% chance of a 25BP hike; The probability of a rate hike in September is about 55%, with a probability of at least one rate hike within the year exceeding 70%. • Key Highlights: This is a non-SEP meeting, with no updated dot plot or economic forecasts; policy direction is entirely determined by the wording of the statement and Walsh's speech. Two key points to observe: first, how to characterize the impact of rising oil prices on inflation (temporary noise/policy response); Second, whether the option for a September rate hike is clearly retained. 2. Key Data Verifies Inflation and Economic Resilience • July 29, 20:30: US Q2 GDP preliminary figures and June durable goods orders confirm economic growth momentum🪐BTC Monday Early Session:
"Why did BTC prices rebound to around 65,400 on Monday?" What is the direct driving force behind the rebound? 》
1. The direct driving force is Trump's suspension of military strikes against Iran.
Over the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), the U.S. paused its military operations against Iran for the first time for 13 consecutive days. On Friday, Trump halted the strikes and kept the diplomatic negotiation channels open.
The market had previously priced in expectations of "continued escalation in the Middle East," with oil prices briefly surpassing $100. After news of a pause in strikes emerged, the geopolitical risk premium began to retreat, and BTC naturally rebounded from around 63,800.
This is an "early rebound" brought by geopolitical easing, which is somewhat beyond expectations!
2. Is the rapid rebound a sign of BTC buying returning?
Let's first look at the market situation through a few data points:
(1) ETF funds are fleeing. On Thursday and Friday, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $465 million, with BlackRock IBIT alone outflowing $212 million on Friday. Institutions are not buying; they are retreating.
(2) Stablecoin inflows have dropped to multi-month lows. Stablecoin transfers to exchanges have fallen to their lowest level in months, indicating that buying activity is decreasing rather than increasing in the short term.
(3) Insufficient capacity. The trading volume of this rebound was only around 1,600, far from the level of a "volume breakout," so the value of a shrinking rebound is limited.
3. Can the subsequent rebound continue?
Let's first look at key positions: 65,500-65,800 is the immediate resistance zone. If it fails to hold above 65,500 with increased volume, this rebound is most likely a "sentiment correction due to geopolitical easing," not a trend reversal.
Looking at the bigger picture: the FOMC decision is the core variable this week. The market prices in a 35.8% chance of a July rate hike, and if Wash signals hawkish, BTC could retest the 64,000 or even 62,500 support level.
My original logic of "falling to 62,500 and then rebounding" was correct; it was just that geopolitics moved the timing forward.
But sentiment recovery does not necessarily mean a trend reversal. There will be a lot of information and data this week, making trading more difficult. In the short term, neither bulls nor bears are suitable for trading. I suggest waiting and waiting for now.
🎯During the weekend review, I reviewed the trend of $ETH again.
On the weekly chart, this coin is near the lower edge of a large ascending channel. Buy at the lower edge and sell at the upper edge—simple and effective.
This position can be moved up or down. Just be prepared for both sides.
I've suffered losses in this kind of market before, so I'm more cautious now.
ETH / #ETHAs of July 26, $ETH validator exit queues have been reset to zero, and the backlog of 2.48 million tokens to be staked forms the core liquidity conflict between highly locked on-chain tokens and market volatility and absorption.
On-chain spot supply showed a one-way contraction. The drop in validator exit queues to zero means that on-chain node unstaking selling pressure has been completely cleared, while 2.48 million $ETH are queuing to stake, pushing the total network locked value above 40.9 million tokens.
Among liquidity drivers, the strong absorption attribute of on-chain staking staking takes precedence over the emotional disturbance caused by the bill delay. The on-exchange liquid chips are continuously squeezed, significantly strengthening the market's defense against short-term selling pressure.
Upward scenario: If spot selling remains exhausted between 1870 and 1880, and 2.48 million staking funds continue to lock up the circulating market, bulls will drive price volatility and recovery. The trigger signal is that derivatives holdings are stabilizing and rebounding as spot prices stabilize, while the expiration signal is a significant reduction in the queue waiting to be staked.
Downside scenario: If macro risk appetite tightens and suppresses buying, prices will once again test the order support at 1870. The trigger signal is that spot selling pressure spreads to the staking side, while the failure signal is that validators exit the queue but remain zero.
When validators exit the queue, end the zero state, and a concentrated unlock backlog occurs, the logic of tightening on-chain supply is declared invalid.
The most critical variable to watch over the next 7 days is the consumption rate of the 2.48 million staking queue, and whether validators exit the queue and whether the heap reappears.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, progress made in the Strait navigation negotiations #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer from Google and Tesla this time?Today, Monday, BTC has surpassed 65,000.
Current price 65,422, up 1.65% in 24 hours. I've been watching this position for a week, from last Friday's 64,114 to today's 65,422, slowly climbing 1,300 dollars. But to be honest, today's rally wasn't the "bullish inducement" I had feared before; there was something going on—although the trading volume of 1.37 billion was still shrinking, the price holding showed that selling pressure was not heavy.
Why did it stand at 65,000 today? Three reasons:
First, nothing major happened over the weekend. The Middle East was quiet this weekend, with oil prices not pushing further past 100, easing risk aversion. BTC slowly climbed from 64,430 to 65,400 over the weekend, with no one buying it.
Second, ETFs continue to see net inflows. Last week, BTC ETFs saw net inflows for two consecutive weeks, marking the first inflow in two months. BlackRock IBIT led the way, with institutions quietly buying in the 64,000-65,000 range. This signal is much more important than retail sentiment.
Third, pre-FOMC "pigeon gambling" funds entering the market. Tomorrow, Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will hold its meeting, and market expectations for rate cuts are split evenly, but some funds are betting early on Powell's dovish stance. This batch of money entered the market today and gave a push.
But I must be clear, 65,000 is not a safe zone. The 65,600-66,000 above is the lifeline repeatedly tested over the past week, and the 41-day high since 6/17 has been stuck here. Whether it can hold 65,000 at today's close is more important than touching it during the session.
Technical aspects:
Current price: 65,422
Resistance above: 65,600 (short-term)→ 66,000 (goal) → 67,500
Support below: 64,400 (last Friday's retracement) → 63,767 → 62,900
The 50-day moving average at 65,145 just broke above today, marking the dividing line between bulls and bears
My judgment: On the last day before the FOMC, today's closing holds above the 65,000 + 50-day moving average, which is a bullish signal. But tomorrow, as soon as Powell speaks, every technical position will be worthless. Hawkish → directly rebounded to 63,767; dovish → broke through 66,000 to target 67,500.
Operationally:
For those already holding long positions at 64,000-65,000, set a stop loss to 64,400 (above cost) to let profits run away
If you have no position, don't chase today. 65,400 is chasing in, tomorrow the FOMC will be hawkish and hit 63,800, you won't be able to hold out
If you really want to position your position, wait until tomorrow's FOMC results come out and the direction is clear before making a move. Radicals can hold at 66,000 and chase longs, targeting 67,500; Conservatives wait for a pullback to 64,400 and stabilize before buying
Fear and Greed Index is 28, still in the fear zone. But this time the fear is different from last week—last week was panic fear (Saylor selling coins + tech stock crash), and this week is the fear of "waiting for data." The fear of waiting for the data to come out usually eases as soon as the data is released.
One last thing: Today is the last day before the FOMC, and the dumbest move was to heavily bet on direction. Smart moves include reducing positions and other data, or holding light positions to hold stop-losses and let the market move out on its own.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
$BTC 原油早间跳空低开，价格从前期高点92.457快速跳水，打破短期全部均线支撑，油价放量大跌，直接跌破5/10/20/60周期EXPMA均线，多头趋势彻底阶段性终结。
短期支撑：82.11；关键支撑80
上方层层压力：86、87、89.47
前期一轮上涨过后，市场对于供需收紧的预期提前透支，没有新的供给紧张消息接力，高位大量获利订单集中离场。市场开始重新审视整体需求前景，消费端偏弱的预期升温，打压多头做多信心。行情跌破关键均线后触发批量zhisun单，形成踩踏式加速下行，放大了单日下跌幅度。
早间短线思路:
不要急于逆势抄底，价格回踩82.11-80区间止跌收出企稳信号后，小仓位试反弹；反弹第一目标看向86均线压力。
价格反弹至86-87一线遇阻滞涨，可以顺势短线空；如果有效跌破82.11低点，下跌空间会进一步向下延伸。$XAU Where has pricing power gone: BTC is no longer "whoever places orders, who decides"
In the past, we said "Bitcoin has no marketers," and that was before 2017.
Today, when discussing BTC pricing power, the answer is clear: it is not on a single exchange, but within a machine where "offshore perpetual + US ETF liquidity + CME basis" intersect.
1. Pricing power is not about "who has the highest unit price," but "who changes the marginal price."
The true definition of pricing rights (Price Discovery) is:
When new information arrives, which side of the capital causes the price to jump first and is then arbitraged back by the entire market.
So:
The spot/perpetual depth of OKX and Binance determines the "rotation speed" of retail leverage sentiment
Coinbase spot + US BTC ETF: determining the "direction" of institutional allocation
CME futures OI and basis determine the "cost anchor" for Wall Street hedging
The most significant change after 2025: Binance perpetual remains a key source of high-frequency price discovery (about 38% of volume share in Q2 2025), but CME Bitcoin futures open interest has overtaken Binance at multiple stages, and ETF net flows have begun to pull CEX orders in reverse.
Second- and third-tier pricing structure: offshore, onshore, macro
Currently, BTC is essentially "three-pole pricing":
Offshore Pole (Binance / OKX Perpetual)
7×24 hours, low friction, high leverage. Funding rates, forced liquidation cascade, and alpha listing momentum are amplified here. It is suitable to discover "short-term sentiment prices."
Onshore (Coinbase + IBIT/GBTC/FBTC and other ETFs)
After the US stock market opened, ETF subscriptions and redemptions were decided to be accepted through spot trading. When a single day's net inflow/outflow exceeds $100 million, the CEX order book is just a passive follower.
Macro Extreme (CME Futures + US Treasury Real Yield + USD)
BTC is increasingly resembling a "high beta liquidity asset." When the CPI, FOMC, and US dollar index move, the CME basis moves first, then returns to perpetual sentiment.
Simply put: in Asian night sessions, watch Binance/OKX perpetual trading; in US stocks, watch ETF flows during the day; and on the weekly chart, watch CME and macro.
3. Why "retail investors' order placements" are increasingly losing pricing power
Because the marginal buyer has changed.
2016–2019: Miner selling pressure + retail spot trading + on-chain UTXO dominance
2020–2023: CEX spot + perpetual funding rates dominated
After 2024: Spot ETFs accumulated net inflows exceeding $58 billion, and IBIT attracted $700 million in a single week; The proportion of listed company + ETF locked liquidity has risen significantly
Results:
Retail market orders = market makers take slippage points
Whale limit orders = Covered by ETF subscriptions and CME basis trading
The real marginal price is set by an entity that can "buy 1,000 BTC without frowning."
4. Practical implications for traders
Don't just look at the Funding Rate for the opposite direction
Perpetual inversion may be a CME basis trade unwinding, not necessarily a retail sentiment bottom.
The 30 minutes before and after the U.S. stock market opens are the most dangerous
ETF liquidity + CME rollover will be deeply closed on CEXs, ensuring low volatility ≠ safety during the Asian session.
The reversal of the OKX/Binance spread is a signal
The price gap between two perpetual platforms often widens, often not because of "which is cheaper," but because of changes in cross-regional funding channels or stablecoin credit.
Macro days > on-chain days
On the day of the nonfarm payroll, CPI, and FOMC meetings, CME weighted > on-chain whale transfers.
5. Conclusion: Pricing power has not disappeared; it is just that "the person at the table has changed."
Bitcoin was not confiscated by Wall Street, nor monopolized by any particular CEX.
It has become a multi-venue arbitrage machine:
The offshore venue delivers speed and emotion
ETFs provide allocation and cash flow
CME provides institutional basis and macro mapping
Who holds the pricing power?
Not the loudest tweeter, but the one on the other end of the "next 5,000 BTC to change the Order Book imbalance." $BTC $ETH $XPL 我已建仓并实现收益 今日美股（美东7月27日开盘）确定是【小幅高开→冲高回落，全天走出高开低走行情】
⚠️仅行情逻辑推演，不构成任何交易、做空/做多建议。
一、支撑「高开」的3个核心短期利好（开盘驱动力）
1. 美伊冲突阶段性降温，原油暴跌压制通胀恐慌
美方暂停主动空袭伊朗，布伦特原油单日大跌5.77%跌至91美元，此前油价破百引发的“美联储被迫加息”焦虑大幅缓解，美债收益率小幅下行，盘前纳指、标普期指小幅翻红，直接带动开盘高开 。
2. 上周五科技、存储芯片短期超跌，存在技术性修复需求
费城半导体指数单日暴跌4.25%，美光、海力士ADR、SOXL集体大跌，短线超卖严重，开盘有抄底资金进场做反弹，是高开的资金推手。
3. 美联储7月议息会议落地前，资金观望情绪偏谨慎，无集中砸盘开盘
市场70%概率定价本周维持利率不变，短期利空真空，不会出现直接低开。
二、决定「高开后必然低走」的4个核心压制利空（全天主导）
1. 1.65万亿AI隐性债务利空并未消化，中长期估值压力永存
日经曝光五大科技巨头表外巨额算力租赁负债，上周五科技股大跌只是第一波恐慌，机构仍在重新定价AI高资本开支风险。Meta、谷歌、亚马逊高位泡沫逻辑松动，反弹就会迎来获利抛压，反弹无力。
2. 存储芯片利空发酵：海力士会长看空内存涨价周期，多头信心瓦解
本轮存储反弹的核心逻辑是DRAM持续涨价，如今产业核心高管公开唱空，叠加短期暴涨后浮盈盘极多，开盘小幅反弹后，短线兑现盘会集中涌出，半导体板块率先走弱。
3. 美联储加息预期并未完全消除，资金不敢大幅追高
CME利率期货显示7月加息概率仍有30%，距离周三议息仅2天，大资金不会在高位重仓做多风险资产，反弹阶段买盘后劲严重不足。
4. 美伊局势只是短暂停火，并非永久停战，地缘隐患随时反扑
仅暂停空袭，霍尔木兹海峡航运矛盾、主权分歧没有谈判结果，伊朗随时重启海上袭扰，多头不敢安心拉升，反弹高度被锁死。
三、分时完整节奏拆解（今日开盘9:30美东）
1. 开盘0~40分钟：小幅高开冲高
纳指高开0.3%~0.5%，半导体、美光、SOXL短暂冲高，超跌抄底资金完成第一轮入场；
2. 开盘1小时后：多头乏力，拐点出现
抄底资金离场、前期套牢盘解套抛售，指数缓慢拐头，震荡下行；
3. 午盘至收盘：重心持续下移，全天收在开盘价下方
高位AI巨头（Meta、谷歌）全天弱势，半导体冲高回落，纳指大概率由红翻绿，完成标准高开低走。
四、细分板块差异
1. 半导体/存储（SOXL、美光、海力士）：高开幅度最大、回落幅度也最大，全天最弱；
2. 苹果、防御性科技龙头：震荡抗跌，跌幅远小于存储芯片；
3. 原油、能源板块：全天走弱，拖累大盘情绪。
五、补充：极小概率例外情景
只有美伊官宣正式书面永久停战协议，才会打破高开低走，走出高开高走；现阶段仅临时停火，该概率不足15%。 BTC broke above $65,000 today, up about 1% in 24 hours.
This increase wasn't huge, but the timing was quite interesting—just in time for easing signals coming from the Strait of Hormuz.
Over the weekend, news emerged that the U.S. had paused its airstrikes for several consecutive days, and Iran also paused reciprocal strikes.
The market immediately interpreted this as a "ceasefire imminent," and risk assets collectively rebounded.
But the question is, does this account make sense? Brent crude is still hovering around $97, far from a true "ceasefire pricing."
On Saturday, Iran rejected a Qatar-Pakistan mediation proposal—the proposal required Iran to immediately reopen the straits in exchange for the U.S. to lift the port blockade.
Iran did not withdraw from the negotiations but explicitly rejected the "New Corridor" mechanism.
Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz had a daily throughput of 20 million barrels, but now only a trickle remains.
Kpler's head of commodity research put it more bluntly: "I don't think the Strait of Hormuz will reopen before next year."
This BTC rally may be priced in as a "temporary hold," rather than a "permanent ceasefire." $BTC ETF资金流7月确实在改善。
整个7月，比特币ETF流入了大约2.34亿美元，以太坊ETF流入了3.38亿美元，都是4月以来首次转正。
在此之前，比特币ETF在5月和6月分别流出了24.3亿和45.1亿美元。
2.34亿跟前面两个月的69亿比，量级确实不在一个级别上，但方向的改变比幅度重要。
另一组数据也值得看——近三个月来最长的连续五天资金流入中，ETF吸引了7.27亿美元。
但现货需求依然偏弱。BTC已经连续约两个半月处于折价交易状态。稳定币转账流量降到了多月低点，短期内买入活动在减少。这种“ETF在买、现货没跟上”的背离，说明机构资金还在慢慢配置，但散户和短线资金暂时没进来。$BTC Data shows that if BTC breaks through $67,456, the cumulative liquidation strength of major platforms will reach $614 million.
Conversely, if BTC falls below $61,627, the liquidation strength for long positions would also be $614 million.
Both sides bet on equal scale. There is nearly a $6,000 gap between 67,456 and 61,627—a fairly wide range.
On July 31, $250 million worth of call spread options were placed in the $70,000–$72,000 range, expiring exactly two days after the Federal Reserve's decision. Some people are betting that BTC will rally after the FOMC. Whether this bet could be made depended on whether the market heard "mission accomplished" or "add again" after Powell spoke.
At the $65,000 level, the resistance zone between 65,500 and 66,500 must be passed upward, and the support at 64,000 must be held below. Both sides have their reasons, both sides are waiting. Before the FOMC, neither bulls nor bears would act first. $BTC The Bitcoin $BTC miner winter is spreading!!
Total network hash rate dropped to 908 EH/s, setting a new low for 2026.
$BTC now mining a single Bitcoin with hash power costs $78,000 >$BTC the spot price is around $65,000, meaning miners lose over $10,000 per Bitcoin mined!!
Results-oriented:
Forced shutdown and marginal clearing: High electricity prices and inefficient old models (such as some S19 series) have completely penetrated shutdown prices, making miners' "queue shutdowns" a rational choice for capital preservation. The reduction in computing power means the market is clearing out marginal high-cost capacity to re-find supply-demand balance;
Lagging release of selling pressure: To maintain fiat operating expenses and repay equipment debt, unhedged miners have had to accelerate the sale of inventory, which creates short-term selling pressure on spot prices. $BTC 衍生品成交量是现货的10倍——这个市场已经"金融化"了
现货交易610亿美金。衍生品交易6260亿美金。10倍差距。
这意味着什么？加密市场不再是由"买币持有"的人驱动。它是由"赌方向"的人驱动。
当衍生品远超现货，市场就像一辆装了V8引擎但轮子是自行车的——动力很猛，但稳定性极差。任何一个方向的波动都会被杠杆放大。
24小时内83203个交易者被清算，总计3.01亿美金。这不是"市场波动"——这是"杠杆踩踏"。
你以为你在"投资"——其实你在一个巨型赌场里，而赌场比你想象中更依赖荷官。 $CORE Latest news, technological advances, and future investment value analysis of public blockchains
1. Core Public Chain Latest Core News on July 27, 2026
Current Fundamentals: CORE current price is about $0.018, circulating market cap is $25.07 million, total supply is constant at 2.1 billion, circulating supply is 1.24 billion, and the token price is highly tied to Bitcoin trends (correlation 0.88).
1. Commercialization Strategy Adjustment (2026 Core Roadmap)
The project focus shifted from early mining incentives to BTCFi's real revenue buyback and burn model, building three major profit sectors:
1. SatPay Bitcoin Bank: Focuses on offline Bitcoin payments and non-custodial lending, incurring protocol fees;
2. AMP Smart Asset Management Protocol: BTC staking, structured wealth management service fees;
3. Dual staking mining revenue sharing: all ecosystem revenue buys back CORE in the regulated secondary market, forming a deflationary closed loop and replacing the previous inflation mining subsidy model.
4. Institutional compliance implementation: Its Bitcoin staking ETP product is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is one of the few BTCFi derivatives entering the traditional securities market, opening up compliant funds for overseas institutions.
2. Scaling progress of decentralized governance nodes
The official CIP expansion proposal promotes the increase in the number of validator nodes, planning to gradually increase the initial 31 validator nodes. Currently, the foundation's unilateral governance decision-making power has decreased from 60% in the early days to 15%, and the proportion of community voting governance has risen to 85%. However, node access still faces screening thresholds, and permissionless free node access has not yet been achieved.
3. Short-term bearish events
In mid-July, Allbridge's cross-chain bridge experienced a security hack, causing a short-term volume drop in the CORE market, with $0.0179 providing strong short-term technical support; At the same time, team and private token tokens are unlocked in batches monthly, continuously creating selling pressure from circulating shares and suppressing short-term upside potential.
4. Changes in supply and demand sides
By 2026, block mining output will be reduced by a fixed 17%, and the supply of new native tokens will shrink; On-chain gas fees are fixed at 10% burn, combined with revenue buybacks, and the long-term supply side is gradually tightening.
2. Core Technology Progress and Technical Barriers
1. Underlying Core: Satoshi Plus Hybrid Consensus (Differentiated Core Barrier)
- DPoW (Bitcoin Computing Power Delegation): Bitcoin miners can entrust the entire network with computing power to endorse Core underlying security by writing simple metadata only to blocks without additional power consumption, relying on Bitcoin's trillion-level computing power to ensure underlying security;
- DPoS (CORE staking): Token holders stake to vote to select network validator nodes, ensuring transaction TPS, block confirmation speed of 3 seconds, full EVM compatibility, and one-click migration for Ethereum DeFi projects;
- BTC non-custodial staking: Users retain their private keys throughout the staking process, with assets not being held in the contract, greatly reducing the risk of cross-chain theft. This is the core technical advantage distinguishing Stacks and Babylon.
2. Implemented technical upgrades
1. Hermes mainnet upgrade completed, optimizing block finality and improving network stability, with TPS cap raised to 8500 to meet high-frequency DeFi transaction needs;
2. coreBTC native 1:1 Bitcoin encapsulation solution implemented, bypassing traditional cross-chain bridge security vulnerabilities and greatly enhancing the security of on-chain BTC flows;
3. Iterative staking settlement contracts optimize BTC staking yield distribution efficiency and reduce gas fees.
3. Technical planning to be implemented
1. Long-term planning to expand ZK-Rollup Layer 2 capacity to further improve network throughput;
2. Gradually open up permissionless validation node access, completely lowering the threshold for node participation and promoting decentralized transformation;
3. Optimized the underlying settlement for SatPay payments, adapting to offline small-amount, high-frequency Bitcoin payment scenarios.
3. In-depth Analysis of Medium- and Long-Term Investment Value (Advantages + Critical Risks)
(1) Value Support Logic
1. Essential Demand in the Sector: There is real demand in the BTCFi niche sector
Bitcoin's total market capitalization is enormous, but it natively does not support smart contracts, leaving a large amount of BTC assets idle for a long time. Core's non-custodial staking precisely addresses users' asset security concerns, locking in existing Bitcoin funds, and the sector has long-term demand potential.
2. Token economics form a closed loop for value capture
Shifting from inflationary mining to ecosystem revenue → buybacks and burns→ deflationary appreciation business models—the higher the ecosystem's activity, the stronger the buyback force, and the tighter the token supply and demand; The total supply is fixed at 2.1 billion with no additional issuance, and combined with annual mining cuts, the long-term deflationary logic holds.
3. Initial integration of traditional compliance channels
With the launch of the London Stock Exchange ETP product, there is potential opportunity to be included in multi-currency US crypto portfolio ETFs in the future. Once compliance channels are opened, it will bring incremental funds from institutions and raise the valuation ceiling.
(2) Core Fatal Risk (Significantly Weakening Investment Value)
1. Industry competition is extremely fierce, with serious divergence from rival products
BTCFi platforms like Stacks, Babylon, and Rootstock account for the vast majority of funds and users. Core chains lag far behind leading competitors in terms of locked TVL, DApp activity, and user scale, making it difficult to capture mainstream market share and prone to becoming niche marginal public chains.
2. Slow progress in decentralization implementation, limited institutional recognition
A complete decentralization transformation will not be completed until 2029 at the earliest. Before that, foundations still have strong network intervention capabilities, making it difficult for overseas regulators like the SEC to classify them as decentralized commodities. The probability of independent spot ETF approval is extremely low, and they can only hope to be included in portfolio ETFs for indirect holdings.
(3) Comprehensive Value Characterization
1. Short-term (within 1 year): Only event-based swing game value (node upgrades, buyback announcements, Bitcoin rebound), no long-term allocation value, higher probability of oscillating bearish declines;
2. Medium- to Long-Term (3 years, next Bitcoin bull market): Only niche sector gaming value exists, with no stable long-term investment value.
- Pessimistic scenario: ecosystem stagnation, bull market peak price $0.08~$0.25;
- Neutral scenario: business model steadily implemented, price midpoint $0.3~$1.2;
- Optimistic scenario: Decentralization + compliance fully realized, with a maximum impact of $1.5~3.5; Early in the morning, various assets took off
The overall positive tone this week is the easing of the Huang Mao taco
Currently, geopolitical easing is the lifeline of all major asset classes
Because behind geopolitical tension lies oil prices
Behind oil prices lies global inflation expectations
Corresponding to the tightness of liquidity
When crude oil falls, all things come to life
Even if a major Changxin company goes public this week,
Moreover, Mate, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple is also about to report earnings
There is even a Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday and June PCE data on Thursday
These major events all seem very shocking
But personally, I think it's still a supporting role
Because based on the current financial reports of the giants,
While performance improved, capital expenditures were basically expanding
This makes it difficult to confirm the AI has peaked
And the PCE data for June wouldn't be a major negative outcome before the Huang Mao stirred things up
As for speculation about a possible Fed rate hike,
Personally, I think that's even more nonsense
Let alone July
The probability of interest rate hikes in the second half of the year is relatively low
As long as the blond taco doesn't go crazy
Crypto gold US stocks
It may all be a golden week for long positions
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
今天这条链上数据，比任何消息、任何政策都真实、都靠谱。
很多人还在被CLARITY法案推迟、盘面震荡、行情磨人搞得心态焦虑，害怕继续跌、害怕还有大砸盘。
但链上最硬核的资金动作，已经悄悄告诉我们真相：以太坊恐慌盘彻底清空，没人卖了！
截至7月26日，以太坊验证者退出队列直接归零。
简单大白话：
现在所有质押大户、机构节点、托管资金，没有一个人排队离场。
想解锁32ETH的，秒退、秒处理，零拥堵、零抛压堆积。
回想去年熊市最黑暗的时候，退出队列动辄几十万枚ETH排队出逃，一跌就踩踏、越跌越有人解锁砸盘，底部遥遥无期。
现在完全反过来了。
一边是：没人跑、没人解锁、没人恐慌。
另一边是：进场队列堵死248万枚ETH，新资金抢着质押，排队四五十天才能挤进网络。
这就是最赤裸裸的资金态度：
低位筹码，机构根本不想放，反而拼命囤。
我给大家讲最核心的底层逻辑，普通人看不懂的：
第一，市场真正的抛压，已经彻底枯竭
币圈所有大跌，从来都是大户解锁、巨鲸砸盘带出来的。
现在退出队列归零，意味着：
没有集中抛压、没有踩踏风险、没有主力出货。
现在盘面的小幅震荡，完全是散户情绪波动，不是真实资金出逃。
下方空间，基本已经锁死。
第二，监管利空完全被市场消化了
前几天所有人都在慌：法案推迟、监管不确定、利好落空。
如果机构真的怕、真的要跑，一定会体现在验证者退出队列上。
但现实是：利空落地，资金非但不跑，反而继续锁仓囤币。
这说明一个残酷真相：
散户在意消息面，机构只看长期价值。
他们非常清楚：ETH的RWA、通缩、机构ETF布局，根本不会因为一次法案延期改变。
第三，现在是典型的“筹码高度锁定阶段”
全网超4090万枚ETH锁仓质押，流通盘越来越少。
散户在反复买卖、来回折腾、追涨杀跌。
机构在持续锁仓、排队进场、静默吸筹。
历史每一次大底，都是这个走势：
消息面悲观、盘面磨人、散户绝望、链上筹码锁死。
个人真实后市看法
1、短期别指望大跌，根本跌不动
没有大户砸盘支撑，1870–1880就是铁底区间。
现在的震荡，只是洗浮动散户筹码，为后面拉升减负。
2、现阶段所有利空，全部是底部骗筹信号
监管推迟、情绪低迷、行情无聊，全部是牛市前期标准磨底特征。
3、中长期我非常坚定看多ETH
质押锁仓持续新高、通缩持续进行、机构ETF长线净流入、RWA赛道持续落地。
底层基本面全在变好，盘面价格还在低位。
这就是性价比最高的布局阶段。
总结：
能跑的早就跑完了，剩下的都是死拿的长线资金。
利空出尽、抛压归零、筹码锁死，以太坊底部基本确认！
兄弟们，冲啊！
$ETH ETH 今日（2026-07-27 周一）盘面速览
- 现价：约 $1,935–1,940（Gate 报 $1,936.8，早茶口径 $1,937，24h 约 +3.3%，明显强于 BTC 的 +1.2%）
- 日内区间：低点约 $1,874，高点约 $1,940（逼近 $1,940 压力）
- 技术形态：自 7/25 低点 $1,848 反弹，日线底分型确认，上升笔展开；小时图 MACD 低位金叉红柱初现，但日线 MACD 零轴下死叉未完全修复，属超跌反弹+情绪修复，非增量反转
- 链上/资金：验证者退出队列归零、超 250 万 ETH 排队进场，质押率 33.6% 新高，供给端抛压被锁；但 7/24 现货 ETH ETF 单日净流出 $7,062 万（结束 5 连入），周/月级仍净流入
- 情绪：恐惧贪婪 27→30 区间，中东停火传闻带动风险偏好，但 7/28–29 美联储议息（加息隐含概率 ~37.9%）压制追高意愿
技术结构与关键价位（UTC+8）
- 震荡中枢：$1,840 – $1,960（日线级别）
- 支撑位：
- 日内小支撑 $1,900–1,920（早盘回踩区）
- 强支撑 $1,874（今日低点）→ $1,848（7/25 低点，日线底分颈线）
- 再下 $1,840（中枢下沿）/ $1,800 心理关
- 阻力位：
- 即时压力 $1,940–1,956（今日高点+7/23 高点）
- 中枢上沿 $1,960
- 站上 $2,000 心理关口 → 看 $2,050–2,068 密集成交区
今日操作思路（ETH 强于 BTC，但同样受 FOMC 压制，按箱体低多为主、突破跟进）
主线：底分型反弹中，回踩不破 $1,848 前低多优于追高；$1,940 一带首次触顶不盲目追，等回踩或放量突破确认。
- 激进低多：回踩 $1,900–1,920 企稳（1h 不破）轻仓试多，止损 $1,868 下方，目标 $1,940 → $1,960，破 $1,960 留底仓看 $2,000
- 稳健者：等两种右侧信号——① $1,848–1,874 回踩不破接多（止损 $1,838）；② 1h 实体放量站上 $1,940 追多，止损 $1,910，目标 $2,000–2,050
- 短空参考：冲 $1,940–1,956 滞涨（上影+缩量）可轻仓逆小周期做空，止损 $1,965 上方，目标回 $1,910–1,890；严禁在 $1,848 上方盲目逢高重仓空，底分型未坏
- 风控红线：日线收盘跌破 $1,848 → 底分型失效，下看 $1,840/$1,800，多单离场；放量站上 $2,000 → 空单止损，顺势跟多不猜顶。单笔仓位 ≤10%，总仓激进≤35%/稳健≤25%
今日宏观催化（与 BTC 共享但 ETH 额外变量）
- 7/28–29 FOMC：加息概率 ~37.9%，若意外加息或表态偏鹰，ETH 回撤弹性大于 BTC；若按预期维持 3.50–3.75% 且声明偏鸽，利好反弹延伸
- ETH 质押结构：退出队列清零+排队进场 250 万枚，中长期抛压锁死，回调深度受限制
- ETF 流向：7/24 单日流出 $7,062 万，今日若转为流入是反弹续力信号，延续流出则 $1,960 难破
- CLARITY/GENIUS 法案：参议院选举年前窗口收紧，8 月休会前通过概率低，监管利好暂难兑现
⚠️ 以上为公开数据+技术推演，非投资建议。周末与议息前流动性薄、合约持仓高，插针概率大，必带止损、勿满仓。
$ETH ，$ZEC ，$TRX City lights spread across high-frequency trading terminals at midnight. The AI quantitative system compared the on-chain chip distribution with the exchange order depth one by one. At the bottom of the screen, a prompt appeared: ZBCN spot has seen consecutive intensive orders near 0.0019. Meanwhile, OKX's real-time market data shows $ZBCN quoted at 0.0020, up 3.98% in 24 hours, reaching an intraday high of 0.0020 and a low of 0.0019. The amplitude is 0.0%, which is due to thin order book liquidity causing the spread between high and low prices not to be updated in time. True volatility still requires monitoring minute-level candlestick charts. A turnover of 0.1B is already considered a modest volume increase for this market cap tier. Looking again at the related stocks, $W rose 3.84% over the same period, current price 0.0093, rising from 0.0089 to 0.0094 before stabilizing, with trading volume shrinking, clearly showing sentiment following the rise rather than a standalone strong structure. $ETH rose 3.81%, with the price returning to around 1946.70. This is a corrective rebound after sustained pressure at the 2000 integer level and the weekly MA60. Whether it can hold above 1950 still requires confirmation from this week's macro data. This sets the tone for $ZBCN: small-cap tokens are using ETH's short-term recovery to recover sentiment, but sustainability does not depend on itself. There are three market anchors this week that cannot be avoided: Wednesday night's US March CPI, Thursday's early Fed meeting minutes, and Friday's Michigan consumer inflation expectations—all providing a second revision for the nonfarm payroll rate path. The non-farm payroll season just ended, with new jobs exceeding expectations, but wage growth slowing. Futures market bets on a June rate cut have not declined but instead surged to 58%. This gives risk assets some breathing room, and in the crypto market, the $ETH rebound is precisely pricing in downward revisions to real interest rate expectations. But don't be optimistic too early. If the core CPI month-on-month rate exceeds 0.3%, the US dollar index may immediately rebound, and liquidity will be withdrawn from altcoins, $ZBCN these small coins are often the first to lose blood. Returning to the technical side, the $ZBCN's four-hour structural decline has slowed, with a small double-bottom formation at 0.0019, and the neckline at 0.0020. A golden cross below the MACD zero axis, very narrow gaps between DIF and DEA, and three just red-candlestick histograms, showing weak strength. This pattern is very common in bear market rebounds and is often just a bearish relay rather than a reversal signal. The RSI has jumped from the oversold zone of 28 to 44, yet has not touched the dividing line between strength and weakness at 50, which means buyers have not truly regained control. Trading volume slightly increased at the top of 0.0020, but the subsequent candlestick body narrowed, indicating insufficient willingness to chase highs. If it fails to break above 0.0021 and increase volume, then this rebound will most likely end between 0.0020 and 0.0021. Combined with the AI model scanning of the transaction distribution, about 2 million USDT of buy orders have accumulated near 0.00195, which serves as short-term support. However, once broken, stop-loss orders will quickly push the price toward 0.00185. Selling pressure is concentrated at 0.0021 to 0.0022, which is the trapped chip zone left over from the previous round of declines. Without macro support, breaking through with one's own funds requires a project team to release a catalyst. Looking at this round of recovery under a macro microscope, the key lies in Wednesday's CPI. If CPI data is moderate and rate cut expectations persist, $ETH is highly likely to test the 2000 psychological level again. Sentiment spillover may allow $ZBCN to take the opportunity to test the dense selling pressure zone at 0.0021, but the probability of holding above is extremely low. If CPI exceeds expectations and the dollar strengthens, the $ZBCN's 0.0019 defense is unlikely to hold; retreating to 0.0018 is highly likely. If the Fed minutes release hawkish language, it will amplify this reaction. Therefore, the short-term outlook is as follows: before the CPI release, $ZBCN is expected to fluctuate narrowly within the 0.00194 to 0.00205 range, maintaining a slightly bullish bias without breaking below 0.0019, but the room remains tight. After the data is released, if it breaks above 0.0021 and stabilizes along with the hourly chart, there is a chance to target 0.0022; if it falls below 0.0019, it will turn bearish immediately. Overall, volatility remains in a low-liquidity environment, so leveraged players need to lower their expectations. All analyses are structural deductions and do not constitute investment advice. AI strategies are still coldly iterated late at night; no matter how dense the city's neon lights, it cannot see through the game behind the order book. The "Game of Death" Behind ESP's 50% Surge: Is It Institutional Investors Driving Prices Up, or Is It a Trap for Retail Investors to Buy?
In the world of cryptocurrency, nothing surges your adrenaline more than a 50% surge in a single day. ESP/USDT's performance today was undoubtedly the focus of the market, and the large bullish candlestick on the candlestick chart was enough to send all holders into a frenzy. However, when we peel back this enticing rally and delve into on-chain data and community sentiment, what we see is a suffocating contest.
1. Data Revealed: Extremely Dangerous Chip Concentration
If you only look at the rally, you might think this is the starting point for the next hundredfold coin; But if you glance at the position distribution chart, you might be scared and afraid to place an order.
The first chart shows the extremely high concentration of ESP chips.
- The top 5 addresses (No.1-5) actually controlled 84.72% of the circulating market!
- Among them, the first-ranked address alone holds 27.35%, while the second-ranked address holds 26.34%.
- What does this mean? This means that as long as these two biggest "market players" or "project teams" decide to dump simultaneously, there simply isn't enough buyers in the market to buy them, and the price will instantly drop to zero.
This kind of "highly controlled" structure usually appears in two situations: either in the early highly centralized stage when the project team has not yet started selling, or in a typical "pig-butchering" setup. For ordinary retail investors, this is not just risk—it's dancing on the knife's edge.
2. Market Sentiment: The Divergence Between Heat and Sell-Off
Looking at the second chart's popular list, ESP ranks second with a popularity index of 46.43, just behind ESPORTS, but its corresponding market sentiment label is a glaring green—"Sell."
This is a very classic divergence signal:
- High heat: indicates that many retail investors are paying attention or even rushing in to chase the rise, with lively community discussions and FOMO (fear of missing out) spreading.
- Sentiment is selling: This indicates that in the eyes of big players and smart money, the current price is already an excellent profit-taking range.
While retail investors are frantically discussing "ESP is about to break previous highs," those holding 80% of the shares may be quietly distributing their chips to the crowd rushing in to watch the spectacle, riding the wave of excitement.
3. Live Market Deduction: A gamble on human nature
Combining these two charts, we can clearly picture the current live scenario:
1. Bullish Attraction: The main force uses their huge holdings to push prices up by 50% with just a small amount of capital, creating the illusion of a "strong breakout."
2. Eye-catching: The soaring data has put ESP on the trending list, attracting both technical experts and stock chasers.
3. Emotional cover-up: The community is filled with positive news and sell-outs, masking the true intention behind the "selling" sentiment.
4. Final harvest: Once retail investors enter the market and provide enough liquidity, the top five holding addresses only need to sell a tiny fraction of their shares (e.g., each selling 5%) to trigger a stampede crash.
4. Conclusion: In this market, surviving long is more important than making quick profits
ESP's current trend is like a beautifully packaged gift box labeled "Huge Profit," but opening it might be a shock.
- For aggressive traders: This is pure gambling. You can participate, but you must constantly monitor the movements of the top five addresses. Once a large on-chain transfer to an exchange appears, it runs faster than a rabbit.
- For conservative investors: Coins with this token structure should, in principle, be placed on the "watchlist" rather than the "buy list." Unless you see chips starting to disperse and the top five holdings significantly decline, all gains seem like castles in the air.
Remember: in the cryptocurrency market, when you feel like the lucky one, you're often the one paying the bill. 🛢️ JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Brent Crude Drops 7% At Open As Strikes Halt
The market voted immediately. Brent crude fell 7% at the open after the US paused its bombing campaign and Iran signaled it will hold fire as long as the pause continues. Traders are pricing the war premium out fast.
This is the chain that has driven crypto all year, now running in reverse. Cheaper oil cools inflation fear, and softer inflation is what finally gives the Fed room to ease. That matters enormously this week, because the Fed meets July 29, three days from now. A 7% drop in crude landing right before that decision changes the inflation backdrop policymakers are staring at.
For Bitcoin, sitting near $64,500 after a rough week of ETF outflows, this is the tailwind that has been missing. Every leg of this conflict pushed oil up and pressured risk assets. Reverse the input, and the pressure eases.
Now the part that keeps you solvent. This exact scene has played out repeatedly. In March, Brent fell 14% on a strike pause, then round-tripped when talks collapsed. Ceasefires in April, June and July all broke within days, each time sending crude spiking back. Netanyahu visits Trump this week, and Trump has already threatened more strikes.
What to watch:
Whether the pause survives the week and into the Fed meeting.
Whether Bitcoin can reclaim $65,145 on the relief.
A 7% oil drop is real relief, not a resolution. Trade the confirmation, keep risk tight, and remember this headline has reversed overnight before.
Does the pause hold into the Fed, or crack like every truce before it?
Not financial advice.
$CL $BZ $BTC I recovered the chip structure from April, and obviously the gap between 76,000 and 80,000 has been partially filled. However, the stacked chips of 61k and 63k have reached their peak, which is quite interesting
1. The concentration of massive shares may be a historical bottom, with strong support. Selling pressure cannot be broken, and it is caught by heavy turnover
2. If it breaks below and cannot be recovered in a short time, it will become the strongest resistance level in this bear market, with massive volume trapping chips suppressing the market, potentially triggering panic selling of chips above 80,000, and the market will move to the next bottom consensus zone to reconstruct the bottom
So I believe now is the real turning point for the market.
$btc $uni The fee proposal is about to be approved. Short-term traders believe the good news has been exhausted and decided to take profits early on Uniswap
I want to talk about the long term
1. After the proposal passes, the buyback rate will increase significantly, and the annual buyback rate will approach $HYPE. Perhaps we can wait a month for data to be backtested
2. As the pioneer of DEXs, Uni's innovation capability is beyond doubt
v1/v2 simplified and popularized as foundational standards for DeFi
v3 pioneered modern CLAMM—each LP could choose its own price range within the same pool
v4 pioneered and standardized this permissionless AMM extension architecture centered on pool lifecycle hooks
3. Currently, the EVM chain launch platform is basically the top pool for Uniswap. The V4 hook gives launch platforms a lot of customization space, and of course, the alpha launch on BSC still uses Pancake
4. Its CCA auction and issuance proves it has strong scalability, but its current approach is still quite restrained
Previously, $UNI tokens were criticized for lacking empowerment, but now they are gradually being enabled, with first-mover advantages and strong innovation, almost leading the direction of on-chain DEXs
Imagination can be a bit bigger, shouting that phrase: on-chain Nasdaq
What do you all think?The most likely thing to fail the AI narrative is not technical bottlenecks, but cash flow drain.
When Tesla and Alphabet both delivered higher-than-expected revenues and clear AI growth, but negative free cash flow, the market gave a clear answer with a single-day drop of 7%-14%: investors are no longer paying for "burning cash for growth."
Key facts:
- On July 23, Tesla fell 14%, Alphabet dropped over 7%, both exceeding revenue expectations, AI businesses grew but free cash flow was negative.
- The Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 25,137 points that day, and the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%. This was not panic selling, but rather a revaluation of the long-term AI capital spending logic.
- Previously, the market tolerated AI investment, which is believed to eventually translate into profits; July 23 marked the marginal decline of this patience.
Structural changes:
- The market pricing focus has shifted from "revenue growth" to "cash flow quality." If AI infrastructure spending cannot generate positive free cash flow, it will be seen as capital consumption rather than value creation.
- This impact on BTC/ETH is indirect but substantial: if the US tech sector is under pressure due to cooling AI return expectations, overall risk asset appetite will shrink, and as a high-beta tail asset, the pace of capital inflows in the crypto market may slow down.
- Altcoins will become more polarized in tightening liquidity: projects with real revenue or protocol cash flow are relatively resilient to declines, while purely narrative-driven tokens face greater pullback pressure.
Biased Multiple Paths and Conditions:
- Conditions for upside: If upcoming earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon show positive free cash flow or weaker-than-expected capital expenditure guidance, it will ease market concerns about "AI burning money with no bottom hole," boost risk appetite, and BTC may rebound with the Nasdaq to previous highs.
- Bearish risk: If at least one of the three mentioned above also experiences negative free cash flow and high capital expenditures, July 23 will be recognized as the beginning of a trend reversal rather than an isolated event. At that time, the compression of tech stock valuations will be transmitted to the crypto market, and BTC may test key support below.
- Tail risk: The systematic downward revision of AI investment return expectations has triggered a deep pullback in US stocks, and the crypto market may experience oversold conditions amid liquidity extraction.
Conclusion: AI narratives have shifted from "growth premium" to "cash flow verification," and the next earnings window will determine whether the market repairs or widens divergence.
Risk: If tech giants' earnings cash flows exceed expectations, the bearish logic will fail in the short term.
$BTC $ETH #AIBTC is hovering around 64,000, tracing a near-perfect V-shaped path through July – from a low of 57,700 to a one-month high of 67,000, then back to 64,000. The monthly range has been nearly $10,000, volatile but directionally clear. Month-to-date gains stand at roughly 8-9%. If BTC holds above 64,000 through month-end, it would mark its first positive monthly close since March. **July's core narrative: exhausted selling pressure + ETF inflows + regulatory expectation games.** Early in the month,Samsung integrates stablecoins into the system-level Wallet and partners with Barclays and Visa for card issuance. The core conflict lies in the liquidity expectation mismatch between the opening of the hardware-side clearing channel and the undecided specific coin types and launch timing.
On the market front, terminal entry triggers expectations for on-chain settlement linked with traditional US stock tokenized assets. The US stock token XTSM experiences price volatility expansion stimulated by the news. The hardware gateway directly connects to Barclays Bank and Visa card organizations, binding traditional card payment infrastructure with underlying on-chain assets.
The driving factors in order are: the compliance progress of the native payment interface on mobile terminals, cross-market capital diversion between US stocks and high-beta crypto assets, and the fiat opportunity cost determined by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The terminal pipeline construction lowers the entry threshold for retail investors, but whether funds actually flow in still depends on fiat interest rate differentials and clearing rules.
The bullish scenario trigger conditions are: Samsung clearly discloses the specific stablecoin types supported in the first batch and provides a clear launch timetable, while the US dollar index weakens, boosting global risk appetite. In this scenario, the premium of the US stock tokenized asset XTSM will continue to expand, and the on-chain payment sector will receive a revaluation of traditional settlement funds.
The bearish scenario trigger conditions are: banking business interfaces face policy review delays, causing the launch timetable to stall midway, while the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates squeezing the yield of interest-free stablecoins. At this time, funds will flow back to US stocks and safe-haven assets like gold, and the XTSM linkage premium faces rapid erosion.
The invalidation conditions are: compliance blockages occur in cooperation with card organizations such as Barclays or Visa, or the terminal Wallet only positions stablecoins as closed-ecosystem points rather than open on-chain settlement. If such situations occur, the liquidity premium transmission logic of the hardware gateway to the crypto market will be completely invalidated.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are whether Samsung officially supplements the disclosure of the specific supported coin list and the progress of the traditional banking business interface review.
#初请18.7万低于预期，利率承压 #黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信，获行业集体背书比特币$BTC 矿工寒冬正在蔓延!!!
全网算力跌至908EH/s，创下2026年度新低。
$BTC现在通过算力去挖一枚所需成本78,000美元>$BTC现货价格65,000美元附近，即矿工每挖一枚比特币亏损1万多美元！！！
结果导向：
被迫停机与边际边际出清： 高电价及低效老旧机型（如部分 S19 系列）已彻底穿透关机价，矿工“排队停机”是资本保全的理性选择。算力下调是市场通过出清边际高成本产能来重新寻找供需平衡；
抛压的滞后释放： 为维持法币营运开支及偿还设备债务，未套保矿工不得不加速抛售库存储备，这在短期内构成了对现货价格的抛压。$BTC The group chat is all about $TON earnings, but I'm the only one still reading news about Russia. Have I been discarded? They're already talking about the 60% annualized pool, and I'm still brushing the Sberbank crypto wallet details. Honestly, my mood feels like being boiled in warm water. The news says it will land in December, a state-owned bank will hold the key, and they'll open fiat deposits for you. It sounds like 'legal,' but if you think about it, it's held in their hands, with limits, compliance reviews, and every transfer leaving traces—how is this openness? This is like cramming on-chain freedom into a cage. After reading the details, my first reaction wasn't joy, but a chill down my spine. When MiCA came up last year, I said regulation is about regulation. Once a framework is established, the first thing to be tamed is the privacy of ordinary users. Now, Russia's move is even more extreme, directly letting the largest state-owned banks act as the entry point. You think you're giving you the green light, but it's actually being installed in a monitoring room to dance. Transparent on-chain data is one thing, but now even the entry door is equipped with facial recognition. Sisters, keep this kind of message steady. This kind of news is the easiest for people to chase after "compliant concept coins." Rushing in, but I think don't rush in so quickly. Good news is good, but the ones who benefit are the banks, not your wallet. This topic has been a topic many people have been arguing about recently. Who exactly is being protected? Binance is getting licenses everywhere, OKX is doing MiCA compliance. In the short term, it's a mainstream entry ticket; in the long run, it's about gradually smoothing down the edges of decentralization. I'm not against compliance, I'm just afraid of us. See the real details in the comments. #特朗普将决定是否扩大对伊战事 #谷歌特斯拉Q2财报今夜见分晓 #美股全线走高, crypto stocks lead the rally On the surface, seemingly fragmented AI industry news often hides the deepest business logic. Recently, South Korea's storage giants secured massive AI hardware orders, and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang publicly endorsed open-source AI, forming a perfect "software-hardware collaboration" strategic closed loop. Software prosperity is the "catalyst" for hardware demand. Jensen Huang's push for open-source AI is not charity at heart but to minimize the barriers to AI application. When countless developers, SMEs, and even national organizations (sovereign AI) worldwide can deploy and fine-tune models at lower costs, the open-source ecosystem will explode. However, running, fine-tuning, and deploying open-source models also require massive computing power clusters and extremely high memory bandwidth (HBM). The more prosperous the open-source ecosystem, the harder it is to satisfy the global hunger for high-performance graphics cards and HBM memory chips. Securing capacity is a "conceit" for booming demand. As the world's largest supplier of AI computing hardware, NVIDIA must ensure its massive shipment plans are not affected by capacity gaps in upstream core components. SK Hynix and Samsung are indispensable HBM memory core suppliers for their top-tier chips such as the Blackwell architecture. By locking in the production capacity of Korean giants, NVIDIA not only ensures stable shipments but also firmly converts these surging demands into long-term orders. Summary: The victory of open strategy. This is not technical sentiment; it is clearly an open strategy carefully calculated at every step. First, use open source to rapidly expand the AI market pie, then rely on exclusive and stable hardware supplyInstantly 100% Volume Explosion! You told me it was a rebound? This is the main ascent wave! According to the latest data from RWA.xyz, the transfer volume of on-chain RWAs $SOL more than doubled in 30 days. This is not a rebound at all—it's that dormant assets are starting to get back to life. Previously, on-chain RWAs were all zombie assets minted and then left flat, keeping them locked for a nice look. Now that the transfer volume has doubled, it means institutions are truly mobilizing these tokenized assets—collateral, market making, liquidation—all in motion. Loud and loud—this is the toughest signal to use, ten thousand times higher than TVL. With $8.7 billion in RWA #特朗普将决定是否扩大对伊战事 #芯片股反弹, short positions in US stocks hit a record high of #KOSPI大涨5.85%, and chip short squeezes rebounded 三天后你会来问我$BTC还能不能追，我会告诉你：早干嘛去了？英国那边炸开锅了。脱欧大佬法拉奇宣布辞去议员职务，直接卷入加密"礼物"丑闻。他自己解释说是收了一笔来自加密圈人士的"小礼物"，然后英国监管层就盯上了他。结果呢？他不干了，说要补选重新证明自己。笑死。一个政治人物收加密资产被调查，这在2026年算什么新闻？去年2025年多少国家的议员公开持有$BTC和$ETH？美国的、日本的、瑞士的，甚至萨尔瓦多总统天天喊单。现在英国议员因为一笔"礼物"就要辞职补选，这操作我只能说：英国监管是真的狠。盘面今天倒是没被这条新闻吓到。$BTC稳稳站在六位数区间，$ETH也没崩。说明市场对这种政治花边早免疫了。真正让我在意的不是法拉奇这个人。是英国监管层释放的信号——他们对加密资产的审查，已经到了连政治献金都要查的程度。这意味着什么？意味着合规化在加速。小圈子送币套关系那一套，放在2026年就是找死。先别慌，这不是利空。长期来看，越是严格监管，越说明它是主流资产。没人管才可怕。你回想一下，$BTC在2021年那会儿还没人当回事，监管爱答不理。现在呢？英国议员收一笔都要被调查。从资产的角度想，这地位提升流动性集中而非扩散：市场正在重新定价资产质量，而非整体上涨
问题句：当资金只流向少数资产时，这是信号还是陷阱？
关键事实：原始数据显示，BTC、ETH、SOL 以及部分特定代币（如 BSB、CHIP、MEME、SHIB、METIS）是当前流动性集中区域；而 BEAT、EDGE、COAI、TRUMP 等十余个代币的流动性正在持续萎缩。未平仓合约已重新设定，但交易活动仍处高位，表明参与者行为已从全面追逐转向选择性入场。
市场结构变化：资金并未均匀分配至整个加密市场，而是高度集中在少数锚定资产和特定叙事代币上。BTC 仍作为流动性锚点，ETH 承担机构资本标准角色，SOL 代表高 beta 市场领跑者，而 DATA、WLD、HYPE 等则分别对应 AI 基础设施、身份验证和投机偏好等细分方向。这一格局意味着，市场并非整体走强，而是资金在主动筛选并抛弃低质量资产。
定价影响：当前定价反映的是对优质资产和明确叙事的溢价，而非对整体市场的乐观预期。BTC 和 ETH 的相对强势可能掩盖了山寨币板块的实际疲软——流动性萎缩的代币即便出现短暂反弹，也难以形成可持续趋势。被动配置资金（如 ETF 流入）和短期投机资金（如合约交易）都倾向于集中在流动性最好的头部资产，而真实需求（如链上应用增长）尚未广泛扩散至中小市值代币。
偏多路径：若 BTC 继续稳定在关键支撑上方，且 ETH 的机构资金流入加速，则可能带动 SOL 和 AI/叙事类代币进一步获得资金青睐。条件：流动性集中现象不扩散，但头部资产持续吸引增量资金，同时未平仓合约恢复增长而非萎缩。
偏空风险：流动性集中通常是市场见顶或结构性分化的前兆。若多数代币的参与度持续下降，即使 BTC 维持高位，也容易因缺乏广泛支撑而出现突然回调。失效条件：BTC 跌破关键流动性区域，或 ETH 的机构资本流入出现逆转，导致头部资产也失去锚定效应。
结论：资金正在用行动区分真实需求与短期投机，流动性集中的市场里，等待确认比追逐突破更有效。
风险提示：流动性集中可能随时转向，需关注未平仓合约和资金费率变化。 $BTC $ETH $SOLBeneath the surface of geopolitical competition, the real noose has never been loosened.
Whether or not the airstrikes between the US and Iran are paused, the maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in effect. This is like a tactical pause in a boxing match: withdrawing the fist is not to give up the attack, but to gather strength during the diplomatic negotiation window while firmly holding onto the trump card of the energy lifeline.
While the market's attention focuses on the clamor of ceasefires and negotiations, the real game often hides within the unlifted blockades and silent pressure. Recognizing this clearly may be more reassuring than predicting the next round of airstrikes.
From a trading perspective, this situation of "pausing airstrikes but still blockades" is precisely a perfect footnote to the mismatch between market sentiment and physical reality. Last night's extreme price of $84.5 was essentially an overpricing in expectations of "conflict cooling," while today's unrealized gain of $2 is a correction of the emotional premium of the physical reality of "unresolved lockdown." The real risk premium has never been determined by the sound of airstrikes and artillery fire, but by silent indicators such as the actual number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily, shipping insurance rates, and port handling efficiency.
For traders, this $2 breath is not a signal of a trend reversal, but rather the market's process of recalibrating its pricing anchor. When most people are led by the news of the "suspension of airstrikes" and let their guard down, rational decisions should be based on steadfast adherence to the underlying logic of "the blockade continuing." The restraint in last night's refrain from mobilizing the last force was not a missed opportunity, but rather a way to avoid becoming a liquidity provider amid sentiment-priced bubbles. Real trading opportunities often arise during the market's painful transition from "trading news" back to "trading reality," rather than amid the noise brought by the news itself.
Therefore, the current "comfortable acceptance" should not be numb to price fluctuations, but rather a clear understanding of the core fact that the "blockade remains unresolved." It reminds us that in the chess game of geopolitical competition, the sharpest weapon is often not the punch thrown, but the ever-present deterrent; On the battlefield of trading, the most stable positions are always built on reverence for physical reality, not on chasing news. This understanding is the true foundation for cutting through market noise and making all outcomes acceptable and acceptable. The biggest taboo in the code stack is treating random drop rates as numerical balance. When advanced players start publicly sharing their PVP reports and risk control strategies on the bulletin board, it indicates that the entire open-world server's economic model is entering a restructuring phase, shifting from "mindless gold farming" to "strategy retention."
In the underlying logic of MMO game architecture, an ecosystem lacking advanced gameplay and relying solely on high returns to attract funds is tantamount to a bankrupt private server driven by runaway inflation. Most newcomers who have just stepped into the sandbox are essentially NPCs rampaging through random number generators (RNGs), mistaking "liquidation clearance" for a normal system punishment. The system's public logs of high-level players—from stop-loss threshold defenses, dynamic position breakdowns, to extreme market defensive formations—is essentially performing high-precision reverse engineering on the server's player behavior data (Telemetry Data). Individual tactical experience is packaged into a reusable strategy tree, aiming to establish a self-evolving defensive algorithm within the system.
Looking at the $XASTS asset that links with traditional markets, its architecture essentially builds a cross-server data mirroring pipeline within a native crypto sandbox. It directly maps macro fluctuations of the external market to the server's dungeon difficulty, linking traditional financial liquidity with on-chain leveraged funds across servers. When players engage in hedge and pending orders against $XASTS within the ecosystem, they are essentially using cross-server liquidity to calm the death spiral risk of a single token. This cross-server asset involvement opens a new external hedging dimension for the previously closed-loop token consumption mechanism (Token Sink).
A top-tier game numerical framework will never allow liquidity to be completely drained by extreme liquidation mechanisms in the short term. If the entire ecosystem is reduced to only high-leverage swords, player retention rates will inevitably plummet, and the system will inevitably face a server-wide crash. Standardizing advanced PVP offensive and defense guidelines such as stop-loss points and position allocation essentially means game designers are actively reducing the initial mortality rate in high-difficulty dungeons, guiding liquidity from "mindless gambling" to "tactical coordination." Only when grassroots players learn to use tactical shields (stop loss) and force allocation (position control) can the entire economic system's token flow velocity remain within a healthy range, resisting the collapse caused by macro liquidity drying up.
The compilation interface for the strategy tree is now open, but whether it can survive the physical collisions of rapid market moves depends on how strong the stop-loss logic is written in the real code. # #okxtradervoices$DGB this old buddy is acting crazy again, rising more than 9 points in one day, but the transaction volume is only 101.5K. According to OKX's real-time data, this volume isn't even enough to fill the gaps between $PUMP next door. Their transaction volume of over 20 million is only 9% higher, but you have orders as thin as paper, and just a few orders are just a draw. I'm too familiar with this plot. The old coins from 2017 have a long-standing flaw: every so often, they have to pretend they're still alive, pull a bullish candlestick and the whole internet shouts "Old coins awaken," then drop three weeks straight and play dead. Last April, $DGB played the same scenario: after a 15% drop, it plunged down for a whole month the next day. Those chasing high have already been left with three rounds of grass on their graves. $PUMP looks fierce, but it's actually the same MEME tactic of passing the buck. According to OKX real-time data, although trading volume is large, the depth is terrible, and the same batch of addresses always collapses against each other. As for $CAT's 7% drop, it's purely deserved. The cat-themed meme wave has drained all the hype from the dog category. Forget about the calico cat and orange cat—they're all stray cats in the market. I've seen too many scripts in this industry where 'good news sells immediately.' The real profiteers quietly use city nightscapes as wallpapers and abstract emojis as avatars, pretending they don't understand currency. #黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, endorsed by industry collectives $LQTY
Today, two incidents are intertwined: traditional markets are discussing the capitalization path of "passive dividend income," while Bitmart reports that there were no large withdrawals within 24 hours, the CEO was dismissed, and the exchange was not notified of its closure. On the other hand, LQTY rebounded 7.38% between 0.18 and 0.20.
The first reaction was that the market first expressed sentiment by using price increases to express sentiment. LQTY jumped from 0.18 to 0.20, indicating short-term capital is repricing under expectations of LUSD protocol reserve yields—but Bitmart's liquidity vacuum and compliance risk exposure also remind us of the vulnerability of the entire DeFi ecosystem. This comparison is actually testing the boundaries of market trust.
The real impact lies in on-chain risk appetite. If the Bitmart incident triggers more exchange audits or withdrawal restrictions, it will directly suppress sentiment among decentralized stablecoin protocols like LQTY—because users' panic over "custody security" will indirectly benefit LUSD's collateral logic. But the premise is that BTC cannot collapse. If BTC currently falls below 57k, LQTY will first retest 0.165; conversely, if BTC holds above 60k, LQTY's rebound will be continuous.
In terms of asset linkage, BTC holding steady at 60k indicates the market is stable, so LQTY's 0.20 is meaningful; if ETH breaks above 3,200, risk appetite will recover, and LQTY may flow back to 0.22 with DeFi funds; SOL is elastic above 160, indicating funds are willing to take risks. Only if at least one of these three strengthens is LQTY's rebound worth watching.
Two observation conditions: 1) If BTC returns to 60,500 and LQTY surpasses 0.205 with increased volume, it indicates funds are pricing in DeFi security premiums; 2) If LQTY shrinks back below 0.18, it indicates that Bitmart's trust crisis is spreading, so don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term.
Risk warning: The Bitmart incident may be just the tip of the iceberg. LQTY's rise is currently driven by sentiment and lacks genuine on-chain lending support. If LUSD minting volume does not show significant growth in the coming week, 0.20 is the short-term top. $BTC Why did the crash occur? Reason: Tightening macro liquidity and rising US Treasury yields (fundamental trigger). The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, pushing international oil prices past the 100-yuan mark, inflationary pressures are rising again, and the market has completely delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts, even starting to price up rate hikes. Bitcoin is an interest-free asset and cannot generate interest income. US Treasuries can provide stable returns, and funds continue to withdraw from the crypto market toward fixed income assets. Liquidity contraction has suppressed the upside potential of coin prices throughout the process. Largest institutional buying reversal: Spot ETFs continue to redeem large amounts Previously, the core incremental capital in bull markets was the US Bitcoin spot ETF. Now, the trend has completely reversed, with large-scale net outflows for several consecutive months, institutions continuously redempting shares, forcing funds to sell Bitcoin for cash, creating continuous selling pressure and completely exhausting buying power. $ETH The main funds that originally supported the market have become a bearish force continuously selling down. U.S. crypto regulatory bill hindered, long-term positive expectations dashed. The market had long bet on the implementation of the CLARITY Act, which would set compliant regulatory rules for the crypto industry and attract global long-term capital to enter and establish positions. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 Currently, bill negotiations are deadlocked, the parliamentary recess window has tightened, the probability of implementation within the year has dropped sharply, regulatory uncertainty has long shrouded the market, large institutions are reluctant to increase holdings, and the market has lost its upward catalyst. Deeply tied to the US tech sector, risk appetite has declined in tandem with $MEME and $EDGuys, NVIDIA has pulled back for so long, I'm already on board.
I am optimistic about its long-term value over the next few years. For a company of this level, I don't care much about short-term price fluctuations. Let's go for US stocks together!
After finishing my order today, I casually opened the market data to check the market. $XNVDA was still hovering within a correction range. A few days ago, Jensen Huang posted his first tweet, publicly supporting open-source AI with 25 tech companies including Microsoft, Meta, and IBM, and Elon Musk immediately responded with a like.
Logically, this kind of news should be considered positive, but the market reacted little, and Nvidia continued to pull back.
In fact, the focus of funding has already changed.
People no longer just listen to stories, but instead focus on profits, revenue, and AI capital expenditures. As long as the next financial report fails to deliver better-than-expected results, no matter how big the positive news, it is difficult to immediately reflect in the stock price.
However, I don't think open source is a bad thing for Nvidia.
The more open AI models are, the more developers there are, and the more widespread enterprise applications become, ultimately requiring more GPUs for training and inference. Models can be free, but computing power always needs to be paid—this is NVIDIA's true moat.
After the Kimi K3 was recently open-sourced, competition in the entire AI industry has clearly accelerated, with high-performance, low-cost open-source models continuously emerging. Jensen Huang's choice to publicly support open source at this time seems more like promoting the development of the entire AI ecosystem, and the more prosperous the ecosystem, the more favorable it is for GPU demand.
So, I can accept short-term adjustments.
Instead of focusing on a few points of change every day, it's better to extend the time frame a bit. What truly determines NVIDIA's future stock price is whether the AI industry can continue to expand and whether the company can keep delivering on its performance.
I've already chosen to get in the car; the rest is up to time.
If AI remains the biggest industry trend of this era in the future, I believe the current pullback may just be a passing episode in the long-term market.
#黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, it has received endorsement from industry collectives