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偏空账户半仓做多标普，123笔铺完
做空频率是开多四倍的账户，刚刚用半仓押注标普上涨。
0xa314...3a81 历史492笔交易，399笔空单，93笔多单，典型的偏空波段。
这次新开SP500多单 $3.68M，均价7,743.05，没有同向底仓。
账户权益 $7.37M，PnL $8.50M，胜率42.4%，高CopyScore候选。
123笔成交在26分钟内完成，不是一笔打完。
后面看价格回到7743附近时，这个账户是继续加，还是先撤掉半仓。
公开合约数据，只做观察。
如果喜欢我的分享，麻烦点个关注📊 $BTC contract liquidation express (August 12)
According to liquidation data, BTC shows a pattern of short-term equilibrium, medium-cycle direction shift, and 24-hour bullish crushing, with fierce bullish and bearish battles:
· Short Cycle (1H): Total liquidation $150,500, short $81,200, long $69,300, short slightly over long (1.17x), basically balanced direction, fierce bull and short battle.
· Medium to short cycle (4H): Total liquidation $8.097 million, long position $6.87 million, short position $1.2259 million, bulls crushing short positions by 5.6 times, with concentrated bullish killing momentum.
· Medium cycle (12H): Total liquidation $17.37 million, short $9.2588 million, long $8.11 million, short overtaking long 1.14 times, direction reversal, signs of short squeeze beginning to appear.
· 24-hour cycle: Total liquidation $32.5526 million, long positions $20.7039 million, short positions $11.8486 million, bulls crushing bears by 1.75 times, direction reversal again, bull selling dominates the 24-hour level, bulls are bleeding like rivers, and bull selling is unstoppable.
⚠️ Risk warning: BTC repeatedly switches direction across multiple cycles (1H equilibrium→ 4H long sell→12H short squeeze→24H long sell), with pronounced four-kill characteristics of long and short positions; 24-hour cumulative liquidation reached $32.55 million, with extreme market volatility. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; do not chase gains or sell losses; strictly control positions and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 12
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: data in line with expectations is triggering a market reaction beyond expectations—macro, industrial, and risk aversion are all resonating in sync.
📊 July CPI meets expectations: The probability of a rate hike in September has slightly decreased, but suspense remains unresolved
On the evening of August 12 Beijing time, the US July CPI data was released: overall CPI was 3.4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month; Core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. All three data points fully matched market expectations.
This is a mild rebound following a month-on-month drop of -0.4% in June (the first negative since 2020). The decline in energy prices remains the main drag, but core CPI month-on-month rose from 0% in June to 0.2%, indicating that inflation cooling is not a direct downturn.
After the data was released, traders slightly reduced their bets on a rate hike in September—the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 47% before the data to about 45%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged rose to 54.1%. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hazus had previously made it clear that the Fed would not raise rates throughout 2026.
But the suspense has not been completely resolved. The Bank of America's previous condition—"if core CPI is 0.1%, a rate hike in September will be ruled out"—was not triggered; Core CPI's year-on-year growth of 2.5% is still well above the Fed's 2% target. A 45% chance of a rate hike means the September FOMC will still be a 50-50 gamble.
🏗️ AI infrastructure earnings relay: cloud revenue accelerates across the board, investment enters a return validation period
During the Q2 earnings season, the three major cloud providers delivered their "report cards" on AI investments. Google Cloud's revenue was $24.8 billion, up 82% year-on-year, with $514 billion in backlogged orders; Microsoft Azure grew 43% year-on-year, with full-year Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time; Amazon AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37% year-on-year, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters.
More importantly, operating profit margins — AWS reached 39.4%, Google Cloud 35.6%. AI investment is shifting from "burning money" to "making money."
But the pressure of high capital expenditures is just as real. Google and Amazon's free cash flow has turned negative, with the combined quarterly capital expenditure of the four companies soaring to $151.4 billion. The market is voting with its feet: rewarding companies that can turn computing power into real cloud revenue, punishing narratives that only invest without returns.
💰 Gold stands above $4400: four forces resonate
On August 11, spot gold broke through $4,400 per ounce intraday, reaching a high of $4,435.25, marking a two-month high. Since August, gold prices have risen for several consecutive trading days, with nearly 2 billion gold ETF subscriptions being made.
This round of rally is the resonance of four forces: expectations for a rate hike in September are swinging between 45% and 50%, and policy uncertainty has boosted gold's safe-haven nature; The US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Agreement has reached a deadlock, with geopolitical risks continuing to ferment; Global central banks continue to buy gold, reducing their reliance on the US dollar; Uncertainty about the intrinsic value of the dollar has increased since the Federal Reserve's leadership change.
CICC recommends continuing to overweight gold. When macro data, industry logic, and safe-haven assets converge on the same day, August 12 is destined to become one of the most important market nodes in 2026.
💎 Summary
July's CPI fully met expectations, yet the probability of a rate hike in September hovered at 45%—the market needs not just "expectations," but "low enough" to be reassuring; The three major cloud providers proved with 43% cloud revenue growth that AI demand is real, and AI investment is entering a return validation period; Gold breaking through $4,400 is a collective vote by the market on policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and dollar credit. As all three main themes resonate simultaneously, the market is fully moving from "storytelling" to a "handover of answer sheets" stage. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#黄金站上4400美元, demand for risk avoidance is heating up CPI landed $BTC at 63,162, with short positions gaining 5.95 dollars and setting a new high
Last night's CPI data was 3.4%, exactly in line with expectations, and core CPI of 2.5% was also in line with expectations. The data itself wasn't surprising, but BTC's reaction was interesting—it first crashed to 63,800, then pulled back to 64,466, then after 10 p.m., volume surged by 840,000 to 63,335, hitting a low of 63,162 in the early morning. My short position at 64,155 now has a floating profit of $5.95, which is the best trade since the actual trading began
Looking back, the logic is still the same old problem: BTC has tested above 65,000 six times since early August, but never closed above the daily chart. The trapped positions at 65K and resistance at the 50-day moving average are present, and the CPI landing means the last positive expectation has been fulfilled. The bulls, having lost interest, naturally withdraw. On-chain data also confirms this—long-term holders reduced their holdings by 210,000 BTC last week, marking the first weekly decline this year, with 71K-76K bottom-fishing funds cutting losses and exiting. The crypto world is now a typical characteristic of the tail end of a bear market
Next, the focus shifts to the Jackson Hole meeting and next month's CPI. Below the 63,162 level are two support lines at 62.5K and 60K, while above 63,800-64,000 has become rebound resistance. I will still take short positions, but I won't chase shorts. With 100x leveraged profits at this level, I need to start considering pocketing the profits
Will you get a taste of the CPI hit? #July CPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? After the CPI release, will you immediately adjust your position or continue to observe?
Meeting expectations is the best expectation, but I still choose not to move for now.
I glanced at it tonight; CPI came out at 3.4%, meeting expectations. $BTC first dropped then rose, falling from 64452 to around 64000 before bouncing back, now hovering around 64100. Liquidations reached 223 million, affecting over 100,000 people.
The data itself is not surprising; meeting expectations is the best expectation.
On the CME side, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 47% to 44.1%, while the probability of no change rose to 55.9%. Oil prices rebounded more than 20% this month, so inflation hasn't been completely suppressed. Employment data is also weak, with only 57,000 nonfarm jobs added in July.
BTC is now at 64100; it didn't break through 65000 nor drop below 61000. Data that meets expectations won't provide new direction for the market; most likely, it will continue to fluctuate between 63500 and 64900. Movement up or down is possible, but neither is certain. On Friday, there is PPI, and next week the Fed minutes; a lot is lined up to come out.
Before the direction emerges, taking action is a gamble. I choose to keep watching and wait for Friday's PPI. Meeting expectations means no direction, and no direction means no action.
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 Latest data: Overall CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, slightly below June's figures
1. Underlying transmission logic
At this stage, Bitcoin is no longer just a simple inflation hedge; it is highly tied to Federal Reserve interest rates, the US dollar, real yields on US Treasuries, and US stock risk appetite, transmitting the chain:
CPI inflation data → Market forecasts Fed rate hike/cut pace → Dollar strength, US Treasury yield volatility→ global liquidity tightness→ BTC movement
Inflation declines (CPI below expectations): Negative factors for the US dollar, falling US Treasury yields, rising rate cut expectations, and ample market liquidity are supporting BTC upward
Inflation exceeds expectations (CPI above expectations): The Fed was forced to maintain high interest rates or even raise rates again, strengthening the dollar and tightening liquidity, putting pressure on BTC to decline
The data fully met expectations: no unexpected positive or negative news, the market lacked a breakout catalyst, and BTC remained range-bound
2. The actual market performance after the July CPI was implemented
Instant short-term fluctuations were announced
After the data release, BTC briefly dipped slightly below $64,000, then quickly pulled back, fluctuating narrowly throughout the day between $63,800 and $64,500, without major gains or drops
Reason: The data precisely met expectations and did not exceed them
Inflation has moderately slowed, easing extreme fears of another Fed rate hike in September;
The cooling downturn is not large enough, so it is uncertain that rate cuts will begin in September, so bulls and bears remain in a tug-of-war34.4% of ETH is being staked: The real change in Ethereum's supply may be just beginning
A data point that is easily underestimated is breaking records:
Data from Token Terminal shows that ETH staking rates have risen to a historic high of 34.4%, compared to about 30% at the beginning of the year.
This means that more than one-third of ETH is participating in network staking.
What truly deserves attention is not just the "reduction in circulating tokens," but the changing structure of coin holdings:
More and more funds are choosing to earn returns through staking, rather than simply waiting for prices to rise. In January this year, the staking ratio was less than 30%, but by June it had already surpassed 32.4%, and now it has risen further to 34.4%.
If spot demand increases in the future, the lower tradable supply may amplify ETH's price elasticity.
But note: staking ≠ permanent locking. ETH can be exited from staking, and liquid staking assets like LSTs can also be traded. Therefore, 34.4% cannot be simply understood as 34.4% of supply completely exiting the market.
A true long combination should be:
Staking rates rise + continued inflows into ETFs/spot + ETH/BTC strengthening + increased on-chain demand.
A single new high in the staking rate is not a bullish signal.
But if demand starts to expand, it could become a very important "lever" in ETH's supply-demand structure.
What really matters is not how much ETH is locked, but how many new buying opportunities the remaining liquid chips will face $ETH Fundamental Research Report $AR / Arweave (DePIN) $3.20
One-sentence conclusion: Arweave ($AR) has an overall score of 46/100, rated as an early-stage project, with insufficient validation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Fundamental breakdown: Arweave (token $AR), DePIN track. Focuses on permanent storage and AO compute layers. Benchmarked against FIL and STORJ. Traditional computing power leasing is done by giants like AWS and CoreWeave, charging by GPU hour; A100 monthly rent is $12,000–$25,000, expensive and high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power through bidding, suppliers do not need centralized review, turning idle GPUs into usable supply. Average order price is $50-500/month, settlement must be made in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven track, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product launch: protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
On the user side, address MAU is not disclosed, DAU is not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active individuals; concentrated holdings of large addresses overestimate actual user numbers. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy and burn annualized without a burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profits do not equal protocol profits, protocol profits do not equal token holders profit. Code side: 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look at PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, refer to whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level but do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs; for technical integration, see API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. Using NVIDIA GPUs does not mean NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not mean strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (accounting for +3.50% circulating volume), burn buyback annualized rate, no clear buyback or burn. Must you buy coins to use the product? Some need to capture medium value (staking/discounting/governance). Looking at it together with peers (unified caliber, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Arweave $3.00B, FIL not disclosed, STORJ not disclosed. FDV: Arweave $4.20B, FIL not disclosed, STORJ not disclosed. Annualized revenue: Arweave $2.00M, FIL not disclosed, STORJ not disclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Arweave not disclosed, FIL not disclosed, STORJ not disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; some omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% of the original price, with neutral range fluctuations; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burns land, enterprise clients enter, FDV corresponds to P/S, aligned with the top. In summary: insufficient evidence, mainly narrative (score 46/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively expensive relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekliness, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on publicly available data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions need to be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all for now. See you next time.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitNo CPI explosion, Nasdaq is rising, so why still can't BTC take off?
After July CPI met expectations, U.S. Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened. The Nasdaq opened up about 0.64%, and the semiconductor index rose nearly 3%—the macro environment for traditional risk assets is actually not bad.
However, BTC is still constrained around $64,000, indicating that short-term conflicts are no longer just macro but stem from capital support and selling pressure within the crypto market itself.
As ETF and institutional participation increase, the link between BTC and traditional financial risk appetite has grown significantly, but the correlation is not 1:1. Institutional funds compare the risk-reward ratios of US stocks, bonds, gold, and crypto simultaneously; BTC must have its own incremental buying to emerge independently.
Currently, the focus remains on:
BTC: Can 63,800–64,500 be recovered?
ETH: Can it hold near 1900 and continue to outperform BTC?
True strength isn't "US stocks rise, BTC follows," but rather:
BTC resists declines during U.S. market fluctuations, and breaks out on increased volume when U.S. stocks rise.
Until then, range-bound fluctuations are still more worth guarding against than a one-sided bull market. $BTC #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? If the CPI didn't explode, why hasn't BTC risen yet?
US July CPI release:
CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, previous value was 3.5%; Core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, previous value was 2.6%.
Month-on-month growth was +0.1% and +0.2%, respectively. Inflation continued to cool down, basically in line with market expectations.
📉 This is somewhat positive for crypto
Core inflation continues to decline, meaning the pressure for the Fed to continue raising rates in September is less.
After the data release, the US dollar weakened and short-term bond yields fell, creating an environment that is beneficial for liquid assets like BTC and ETH.
$BTC Why hasn't BTC taken off immediately?
Because this CPI falls under the following categories:
There was no negative news, but also no unexpected positive news.
BTC is still fluctuating around $63,500, with a high of about $64,300 and a low of about $63,200 today.
Moreover, overall inflation is still at 3.4%, and energy prices have risen 14.7% year-on-year, so the market is still hesitant to directly trade a "Fed full dovish turn."
My judgment
This CPI is a mild positive for crypto.
I prefer to understand it as:
Another negative factor is missing below BTC, but a real breakout still needs new catalysts.
In the short term, I still look for buying on dips near 63,000–63,500, and above 64,500–65,000, first watch for resistance.
In short:
It's good news that the CPI hasn't exploded, but for BTC to truly get started, liquidity expectations will have to ease further. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? Just saw the news: Strategy sold another 1,690 BTC to recover cash. Saylor's 'Never sell your Bitcoins' has now learned to keep a low head and build a cash buffer. I actually think this is a good thing—the old bond-issuing perpetual motion machine was a myth in bull markets, but a noose in a volatile market. BTC is now grinding sideways at 63,000, ETH stuck at 1890, unable to go above or down. It's precisely at times like this that those who survive long are better than those who shout.
CPI meets expectations, the probability of a rate hike in September drops to 42%, at least the macro situation won't be chaotic. My strategy now can be summed up in one word: steady. Keep your positions well and wait for direction; don't wear yourself to the limit in narrow fluctuations. For every on-chain player who has made money in the crypto world, figuring out how to safely cash USDT from their account into fiat currency in their bank card has become a nerve-wracking mine-hunting game.
In traditional P2P seller markets on CEX exchanges, frequent frozen card scandals have made countless retail investors hesitant to talk about "withdrawing funds."
According to this year's EU MiCA compliance guidelines and foreign exchange regulatory data from various countries, the pollution rate and probability of card freeze in traditional peer-to-peer P2P peer-to-peer withdrawals have astonishingly risen to as high as 3% to 5%.
Especially in countries like Brazil, recently it has mandated that P2P withdrawals over $10,000 must undergo penetrative self-inspection.
As long as even a tiny bit of stolen money from hackers or scams is mixed into the buyer's fund pool, your domestic bank card will be instantly frozen by the police or anti-money laundering system for at least six months.
This anxiety of stepping on a pitfall upon withdrawal is forcibly pushing Web3 players toward a new endgame: completely bypassing P2P and using compliant Stablecards for consumption.
Many friends might wonder, what is a Stablecard? How does it help you avoid the risk of a frozen card?
Here, attention should be paid to the underlying clearing process for compliant U cards.
Stablecoin prepaid cards launched by RedotPay, Rain, and Western Union are backed by traditional financial settlement networks like Visa or Mastercard.
When you use these U cards to buy coffee on Taobao, Meituan, or overseas offline malls, your U Card account will automatically sell your USDT to a compliant clearing bank at the real-time exchange rate in the backend.
The clearing bank settles directly with merchants using standard fiat currency, and the entire transaction follows a legitimate commercial consumption channel, with fees usually around 1%.
This way, your bank card doesn't need to receive transfers from unknown personal accounts, completely cutting off the nightmare of judicial freezes at the source.
This evolution from "cash withdrawal" to "direct consumption" is, frankly, a dimensionality reduction blow to traditional OTC merchants and P2P counters.
In the past, retail investors rushed to exchange USDT for RMB or US dollars and deposit them in banks because Web3 assets couldn't directly buy daily necessities.
Now, with payment giants like Visa fully embracing public chain settlements, stablecoins now have everyday payment capabilities equal to sovereign currencies.
You no longer need to exchange assets for fiat currency and keep them in the bank to suffer losses; your USDT itself is a globally accepted hard currency that can be used anytime with a card.
Those P2P merchants on exchanges who rely on high premiums to suck off traffic fees are being quickly swept into the dustpile of history by this safer, more compliant physical consumption card.
Personally, I think the explosion of Stablecards, although saving retail investors' bank cards, also marks another concession of personal privacy under the strict enforcement of regulations.
To obtain a compliant Visa U card, you must submit extremely strict KYC identity verification and proof of residence.
Every cup of coffee and every plane ticket you buy with cryptocurrency is fully recorded in the databases of traditional financial institutions.
We use personal privacy as a bargaining chip to gain the security of assets not being frozen.
Although this deviated from Satoshi's original ideal of anonymity, for ordinary people who suffer from insomnia every day just to withdraw money, being able to spend their earnings steadily might be the most realistic dignity.
After enduring the torment of P2P frozen cards, will you choose to continue risking freezing your fiat currency in over-the-counter trading, or embrace this compliant U-card that treats stablecoins as cash and sacrifices some anonymity?
Anyway, I believe that money that can be safely pocketed is what truly belongs to you. As for whether the withdrawal posture is elegant or not, it is insignificant in the face of the risk of a frozen card.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard $btc - 60k bottom prediction
After hopeful and localized bullish sentiment, now boredom has arrived.
Update on the bottom prediction we made in February. Just a reminder, because we have been doing contrarian short trades since 66k+, and we are still doing so now.
Therefore, although I have loudly and clearly stated that contrarian bears are important, it is always good to remember the bigger picture.
Since the last update, many things have changed. Although price movements have been minimal, market participants have seen significant local shifts. In February, my prediction for the 60k bottom experienced a strong rebound, and in June, my warning about 60k rebounded even more aggressively (prices wait for the low, but sentiment drops even lower)......
…… Just think of those famous charts from February, when everyone was "calling for a top," saying "We're going to drop below 50k," "We're in a bear market," as if it would be a classic bear market. We said no, we said this bear market would be shallower and stop near 60k. And now, many of those people are speaking in a completely different tone, especially when we break above 66k. "July rebound." "I do swing longs." "160k is coming," and so on.
This sentiment reversal has already been quite firmly established, but given the market's attempt to bottom, the appearance of all my "Magic 7" confluence points, and the very low likelihood of Bitcoin falling below 50k in today's market environment, the probability of this bottoming idea coming true is much higher.
However, what many people get wrong is that we don't need extreme bearish sentiment to bottom out the market. It has already passed when the peak below 60k is needed. We only need a local bullish sentiment reversal to resolve it, which is exactly what we usually see at every bottom—boredom.
It was that period when price movements were extremely slow, as if the market had lost all liquidity, creating a false picture of "the world losing interest in the asset."
Therefore, in my view, this boredom aligns quite well with the period we're currently in, the price action we've seen, and the overall sentiment and atmosphere around Bitcoin. This also means local oscillation, which means we're exhausting participants, which further supports our idea of local bears, as we're at the peak of the consolidation.
All in all, it's a very typical bottoming process, accompanied by quite interesting emotional twists that perfectly match what you want to see.I carefully read @Wuhuoqiu Lao Bai's interview. The amount of information and knowledge was seriously overloaded. After reading it, my mind was buzzing, so I'd like to briefly summarize a few shared viewpoints:
1) Don't judge the industry by how many projects have died in the crypto sector. DeFi, GameFi, NFT, prediction markets, and so on have lost a batch of projects, but some projects will eventually survive and get better and better. Ultimately, behind blockchain's decentralization, no need for approval, and censorship resistance that no one cares about, there is always a programmable financial core for point-to-point value transfer;
2) The failure of the token issuance model has a greater impact on the crypto industry than expected. At least most people think the crypto world is driven by the wealth creation effect supported by the market dream rate. Without newly issued native assets, relying solely on existing TradFi assets will make the industry lose appeal to VCs, developers, project teams, and other build-side players. Relying solely on retail investors on the consumer side cannot sustain it;
3) Crypto introduced stablecoins and perpetual contracts to the traditional financial world, proving its industry value. Whether it was the political urgency of dollarized debt or the high efficiency of innovative financial Perps, both were brought about by crypto. But before stablecoins reach trillion-yuan scale, before Perps platforms are truly priced by US stock institutions, it is still too early to $HYPE;
4) The Agent Economy will definitely happen, and it will be the final form of the AI + Crypto narrative. However, the process of building Agent wallets, Agent Trading, x402, Agent Chains, and other infrastructures will be painful. Crypto can only seek marginal differentiation opportunities under the leadership of traditional Web2 institutions, but this is already sufficient.CPI has given BTC a lifeline, but the real test has arrived.
July CPI This time, the market can finally catch its breath.
US July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, core CPI 2.5%, and inflation continues to cool; Combined with previously clearly weakening employment data, the Fed has one less reason to continue raising rates in September. (Reuters)
What does this mean to BTC?
It's simple:
Easing rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields under pressure, $→ weakening, → risk appetite rebounding, and BTC → benefiting.
Therefore, this CPI is definitely positive for BTC in the short term.
But I actually think the last thing we can do now is get complacent by fixating on the CPI.
Because the real variable has quietly shifted from CPI to crude oil.
Now Brent is close to $90. This increase mainly occurred after the end of July, and the July CPI has not yet fully priced in this round of oil price shocks.
This is the most troublesome part.
If Hormuz fails to resume normal navigation and oil prices continue to climb, the following is very likely to occur in the coming months:
Oil prices rise → inflation resurfaces→ the Fed turns hawkish again→ US Treasury yields rise, → BTC comes under pressure again.
So the current BTC logic is actually quite interesting:
CPI is helping the bulls, while crude oil is leaving a backup plan for the bears.
If oil prices fall, BTC's macro pressure will ease significantly, and policy expectations for September may further shift toward easing;
But if oil prices continue to break through $90 or even $100, the expectations of rate cuts or no rate hikes just built up in the market could very well be pushed back.
So this time, my conclusion for BTC is just one sentence:
CPI is just the starting gun; crude oil is the judge.
Whether BTC can truly experience a major rally depends not only on what the Federal Reserve says.
It still depends on whether that barrel of oil gives them face. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? $BTC $SPCX A few quick words before bed: I wonder how many people followed today's rocket rally. After the rocket surges tonight, don't blindly chase the rally. This round of rally is driven by strong sentiment; it's just an upward trend driving the market, not fundamentals improving. Beware of a sharp pullback after the sentiment subsides.
Analyze the company's fundamentals from the following three points to explain why it surged today. Whether you can go short will judge later. Do not place orders blindly.
SpaceX's stock price surged above $143, breaking through its IPO price. This round of rally is not driven solely by positive factors, but is the result of all negative factors being exhausted, fundamentals beating expectations, short selling to cover shorts, and sentiment resonating across themes.
First, the unlocking panic was fully realized, turning negative news into positive news. Previously, the market was unanimously fearful of large-scale unlock-up sell-offs, with large amounts of funds shorting in advance, predicting that after the unlock, internal shareholders would flee en masse, and the stock price would continue to test below $100. But after the unlock, there was no mass sell-off; most early institutions and employees chose to hold on, and actual selling was far below market expectations. The consensus pessimism failed, and the hidden bears were forced to concentrate their positions to cover and replenish, directly triggering a wave of strong buying and driving short-term surges.
Second, the Q2 financial report has solidified its foundation, making Starlink a stable cash cow. The report shows that total revenue grew significantly year-on-year, with Starlink subscribers surpassing 12 million. The communications business has achieved stable profitability with impressive profit margins, and government orders continue to be delivered, proving to the market that the aerospace business is not just a cash-burning project but has sustainable cash generation capabilities. At the same time, the company holds cash reserves worth hundreds of billions and has ample orders, alleviating some market concerns about the cash flow chain.
Third, AI + space computing power opens up imagination and reshapes valuation logic. The capital market no longer sees it simply as a rocket company, but as a space AI computing power platform. The company announced aggressive computing power expansion targets, partnered with Tesla to advance large chip factories, and combined with acquisitions of AI companies and large model business expansion, extending the story from space launches to the booming AI sector, attracting growth institutions to enter the market. Institutions like ARK also increased holdings, driving up valuations. Musk continues to express optimistic expectations in earnings reports and social media, strengthening market expectations for Starship and V3 satellites, further amplifying bullish sentiment.
Fourth, the technical side has shown a bottoming reversal. Previously, the stock price had plunged from a high point, reaching a low near $104. After being oversold, there was already a need for recovery. When the negative news from the lock-in unlock was disproven, earnings data improved, and the stock price broke through key moving average resistance, trend-type funds chased the rally. Retail and institutional funds resonated, pushing the price quickly above the $143 mark.
But it's important to recognize that sentiment plays a significant role in this round of rallying. The Starship project still faces technical uncertainties, huge capital expenditures, and whether long-term ambitious targets can be realized will take time to verify. After a rapid short-term surge, profits are substantial, but if subsequent launches fall short of expectations or financial reports fall short of expectations, a sharp correction is likely to occur.📉 $BTC IS QUIET — AND THAT MAY BE THE SIGNAL
Bitcoin’s derivatives market is showing a noticeable shift in behavior.
Perpetual-futures activity has cooled, suggesting traders are becoming less willing to commit aggressively while waiting for a clearer macro catalyst.
That doesn’t automatically mean sellers are taking control.
It can also mean positioning is being reduced while the market waits for confirmation.
The current setup is therefore more about compression than conviction.
👀 What matters next:
📊 Does trading volume return?
💰 Does fresh spot liquidity enter?
⚡ Does open interest expand with the move?
🔒 Can BTC break and hold a key level?
If activity remains muted, BTC could continue chopping sideways.
If volume suddenly expands, the resulting move could be much sharper because traders have been waiting on the sidelines.
$ETH is worth watching alongside BTC for confirmation of broader risk appetite.
The temptation is to predict the breakout.
The smarter approach may be to let participation reveal the direction first.
Low activity isn’t necessarily bearish.
It’s a market waiting for conviction.
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #CPIInLineFedWatch #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid The expansion of stablecoins is repricing public chains
In June this year, DefiLlama data showed that the global stablecoin market cap stood above $315 billion, whereas two years ago this figure was just over $160 billion, nearly doubling. What's even more noteworthy is the structure: one Ethereum chain carries about $157 billion in stablecoins, accounting for over half of the total. Together with Tron's $90 billion, these two chains have consumed 80% of the on-chain US dollars in the entire market. By 2025, stablecoin on-chain settlement volume is expected to reach $33 trillion, leaving Visa far behind. In February this year, the adjusted monthly settlement volume reached $7.2 trillion, surpassing the US ACH network for the first time in history.
This is not a "crypto narrative"; it is a real rerouting of capital flows. Last year, stablecoin issuers bought nearly $35 billion in U.S. Treasuries, and Tether alone holds about $141 billion in direct and indirect Treasury exposure, more than many sovereign countries. When on-chain dollars begin to systematically connect U.S. Treasuries, cross-border payments, and institutional clearings, it is no longer an internal circulation in the crypto market but a new channel in the global liquidity system. The GENIUS Act, MiCA, and Hong Kong's licensing system have been implemented one after another, effectively acknowledging the legality of this pipeline by regulators — which is why stablecoin supply barely contracted during this year's market correction, peaking in May and only falling about 3% in June, completely different from the 30% contraction during the 2022 bear market.
The pricing logic for $BTC and ETH in this pipeline is two completely different paths.
BTC relies on a reserve premium. Stablecoin expansion is essentially an on-chain extension of US dollar credit, with issuers using US Treasuries as reserves, and every link in the chain is anchored to sovereign credit. The more this is the case, the more the market needs a final settlement asset that is not anchored to any sovereign authority or issuer to act as the system's "ballast stone." The larger the stablecoin, the more prosperous on-chain finance becomes, and the hedging demand for BTC, a non-sovereign reserve asset, becomes more rigid. It is the opposite that the system does not need, but cannot avoid.
ETH relies on usage rates and gas economies. Over half of stablecoins run directly on the Ethereum mainnet, while the remaining L2, DeFi collateral, and RWA liquidations ultimately return to Ethereum for final settlement. Every cent stablecoin supply expands, so does on-chain transfers, collateral, and liquidation demand. These are real gas burns and ETH locked as collateral. Coinbase's model projects $1.2 trillion in stablecoins by the end of 2028, and $1.9 trillion by 2030—if this path is realized, Ethereum will not handle its current scale, but three to six times the on-chain dollar flow.
So the core contradiction of this round is actually very clear: when the market debates "which stablecoins benefit," it often treats it as an either-or choice. But in reality, BTC and $ETH are not competing on the same dimension—one is the external trust anchor, the other is the internal settlement layer. Stablecoin expansion raises the pricing basis for both, but the paths are different. The variables we really need to watch out for are regulatory restrictions on yield-bearing stablecoins and the dilution of mainnet value by L2s: the former determines the speed of on-chain dollar expansion, while the latter determines how much ETH traffic can convert into its own revenue. The story of stablecoins has been told for eight years, but it is only now that supply truly connects to US Treasury and payment networks that public chain value repricing has only just begun.This round of bear bets is pretty ruthless!!
Several major players directly shorted at high levels today
A total of 3,895 BTC were shorted
Valued at approximately $250 million
Clearing prices are concentrated in:
$64,600 - $66,500
This shows that what they are betting on:
This rebound is already close to the top
But the bulls did not give up
Two big players have opened the door:
1,547 BTC long positions
Clearing price is:
Around $61,200
Now, the distance between the two sides is not far
This is the middle section
It's like a meat grinder
Short positions are heavier
But the bulls are still holding their ground
I won't take sides in this position
Whoever will be held accountable first
Whoever pays the market tuition
I'll squat down and watch the show first
Do not participate in such high-leverage bets
The profit is the chicken leg
Don't lose your principal if you lose...#CPIInLineFedWatch 🚨 CPI HẠ NHIỆT – CRYPTO ĐANG ĐỨNG TRƯỚC MỘT CÚ XOAY DÒNG TIỀN LỚN? CPI Mỹ tháng 7 giảm từ 3.5% xuống 3.4% YoY, Core CPI cũng giảm từ 2.6% xuống 2.5%. Con số không tạo ra cú sốc giảm phát, nhưng ít nhất nó cho thấy lạm phát không nóng lên thêm. Với Crypto, đây là tín hiệu đáng chú ý. Khi áp lực lạm phát giảm, kỳ vọng FED phải tiếp tục duy trì chính sách tiền tệ quá cứng rắn cũng giảm theo. Nếu lợi suất trái phiếu và USD suy yếu, dòng tiền thường có xu hướng tìm lại các tài sảThe next 24 hours could be less about chasing direction and more about identifying where capital is actually willing to stay. July U.S. CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, matching expectations, while core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and eased to 2.5% YoY. The immediate reaction was constructive for broader risk assets, but crypto's response remained relatively muted. That tells an important story: The market got better inflation data — but it did not suddenly get unlimited liquidity. 🔄 What the flow looks like 1️⃣CoreWeave (CRWV)'s earnings report today once again boosted sentiment in the US AI industry, proving that there is a bubble in the AI sector, but there is still some room for it! $CRWV is considered an AI computing power leverage company, building data centers by purchasing large AI GPUs to supply computing power to large cloud providers. Today's financial report is quite impressive, especially in terms of revenue growth, which not only exceeded market expectations but also doubled year-on-year. It also stated that $25 billion in new customers have been confirmed, proving the strong demand for AI computing power. However, the company's financial reports are not perfect; capital expenditures and the sustainability of future performance growth remain risk points, and the company continues to increase future capital expenditures. CRWV's biggest contradiction is that stronger demand actually requires more financing, so capital expenditure must continue to be expanded to meet demand. Therefore, once computing power demand weakens, the company faces huge challenges, currently in a spiral of one foot on the right. Since it's currently a positive spiral, it suggests a death spiral is possible. But judging by the stock price, a single-day gain of about 20% is still remarkable for a tech company valued at 40 to 50 billion. This financial report not only proves the demand for AI computing power, but also boosts confidence in the US AI industry chain. It also shows that the tech bubble in US stocks still has room to expand. More importantly, the stronger the demand and orders for CoreWeave, the stronger the demand for NVIDIA GPUs. Be cautious: We often say that even when facing bubbles, you must learn to hold onto them appropriatelyThe bull market has arrived, so why are more and more people unable to make money?
This might be the most magical aspect of this crypto market cycle. BTC is still at a high level, institutional funds haven't fully exited, and the narratives of stablecoins, RWAs, and memes have never stopped. Based on past experience, this environment should be like "buying a fake with your eyes closed." But the real experience is completely different: when BTC rises, altcoins don't necessarily follow; when BTC pulls back, altcoins crash first; After finally catching a hot topic, the narrative might change within two or three days. Even though the market hasn't entered a traditional bear market, the account experience is not much different from a bear market.
The problem may not be in the bull market, but that money in this round is no longer following the previous route.
The most familiar scenario was BTC rising first, funds starting to complain that BTC couldn't rise, then moving to ETH, and finally spreading to large-cap altcoins and small to mid-cap caps. The so-called "knockoff season" is essentially a round of liquidity spillover. But this ETF cycle changed the entry point, with large new funds buying BTC exposure. They had no reason to profit from BTC before taking over your altcoins. Meanwhile, memes absorbed the most active speculative funds within crypto. A hot spot appeared, funds rushed in within a day, and three days later they might be looking for the next target.
What's even more troublesome is that the number of coins keeps growing. Previously, a new narrative might only have a dozen or so projects sharing funds; now, dozens or even hundreds of tokens can emerge in the same track, plus VC unlocks, team releases, and the continuous listing of new tokens. The market needs more money, but the actual willingness to take on risk assets hasn't increased proportionally. This has led to the current strange situation: the total market cap looks impressive, but the liquidity actually distributed to each altcoin is pitifully thin.
So now I increasingly doubt the saying "after BTC rises, it's always the knockoffs." Rotation will certainly happen, but it could turn from a large market lasting several months to a few days or even hours of local rallies. You judge the direction correctly but buy the wrong target; You judge the track correctly but enter two days late, and you might not make money.
This also explains why the hardest people in this round aren't those who completely miss out, but those who trade every day. As the number of hot spots increases, the window to make money gets shorter. The more afraid you are of missing out, the more likely you are to chase the already started market. In the end, you participate in many bull markets, but all your profits go to re-switching and chasing highs.
So the truly scarce thing this round may no longer be "finding the next hundredfold coin," but knowing when to buy nothing.
The bull market hasn't disappeared; it's just that the old "rising tide" bull market may be disappearing.
In the past, bull markets tested whether you dared to buy; now, it's even more a test of whether you can resist buying recklessly $BTC $ETH
#BTC #ETH #山寨币 #加密货币 #Crypto #欧易星球Gold has once again shattered market expectations
While most people were still debating when the Fed would pivot, gold had already provided the answer through its trends. On August 11, spot gold briefly broke through the $4,400 mark, touching around $4,448 intraday, with gains exceeding 8% this month
This rise is not simply a "buy gold with inflation" logic, but a repricing of capital regarding future uncertainty
There are several core changes behind this.
First, expectations for rate cuts are heating up again.
Weaker employment data has prompted the market to reassess the Fed's future policy path. Increased employment pressure means economic momentum may slow, and once interest rate expectations shift, falling real rates will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Gold's recent strength is precisely due to trading in this change
Second, safe-haven funds have not left.
In recent years, gold prices have been driven mainly by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and concerns over the credit of the US dollar. This logic still holds today. Global capital is not simply betting on gold prices but reducing exposure to cash and single asset risks.
On-chain gold assets have also seen capital movements. Market monitoring data shows that some institutions' linked wallets have recently increased holdings of gold tokens such as XAUT, reflecting that some funds are exploring on-chain gold asset allocation. It should be noted that on-chain capital flows can only serve as references and do not fully represent the capital trends of the traditional gold market.
Third, gold is shifting from a "safe-haven asset" to a long-term asset allocation.
In the past, many investors believed gold's biggest problem was not generating cash flow, but in an environment of expanding debt and frequent shifts in monetary policy, gold's value is changing.
It doesn't necessarily need to provide yields, just to maintain purchasing power when other assets fluctuate.
The question now is: can gold continue to strengthen after reaching $4,400?
My view is that in the short term, profit-taking pressure cannot be ignored. After consecutive rises, $4,400 has become an important psychological level, and future trends will heavily depend on US inflation data, the direction of the dollar, and changes in US Treasury yields. If inflation continues to cool and interest rate expectations weaken further, gold still has the potential to challenge the $4,500 area.
However, if inflation heats up again and pushes the dollar and real interest rates back up, gold may also undergo a phased correction.
From a longer-term perspective, I believe the core of this round of gold rally is not a single data outset, but that global capital is reseeking "reserve assets beyond credit."
Over the past decade or so, capital has been chasing technology, stocks, and crypto assets; Now, more and more funds are beginning to pay renewed attention to scarce assets.
Gold breaking above $4,400 may seem like a rally, but behind it lies a shift in global asset pricing logic.
$DOS $SNDK $ETH
#黄金站上4400美元, demand for risk avoidance is heating up $BTC $ETH August 12 | In-depth analysis of crypto market trends
1. Panoramic Market Review
Throughout the day, the market entered a data-front, wait-and-see phase with volatility, with funds generally choosing to shrink positions and wait for the release of the U.S. CPI inflation data in the evening.
BTC surged intraday and tested resistance at 64,600, but continued to face pressure. The bulls' upward offensive lacked trading volume, and the intraday low was supported by a pullback to 63,230. The trading range for the day was 63,200–64,600 USD.
ETH is relatively stronger than Bitcoin, with funds supporting the spot market at low levels, maintaining the range between $1840 and $1905, showing independent resistance to declines.
Structural features:
1. Bitcoin dominates the overall market direction, with intensified differentiation among mainstream altcoins; Track coin impulses have very poor sustainability, and a rally is triggered by capital consensus;
2. Meme coin rotation accelerates, with no main theme, capital flows in and out quickly, lacking sustained market trends;
3. The Market Fear and Greed Index fell back to 31, approaching the extreme fear range; 24-hour total contract liquidation across the network amounted to $116 million, with both long and short liquidations, leveraged funds actively withdrawing, market volatility converging early, awaiting data catalysts.
Core key price points
✅ BTC
Support: 63,200 (intraday strong support), 62,500 (medium-term defensive level)
Resistance: 64,100, 64,600 (short-term double selling pressure zone)
✅ ETH
Support: 1840, 1780
Pressure: 1905, 1930
Technically, the 4-hour price remains below the moving average, indicating a weak box consolidation pattern. Only with increased volume holding above 64,100 will the bulls see a recovery rally; A valid break below the 63,200 support will open up a new round of downside potential.
2. Core macro logic: CPI is the key factor for short-term market trends
Today, all eyes are on the 20:30 US July CPI inflation data, which is the most important catalyst for this month's rally, directly reshaping the Fed's September rate expectations.
Market consensus expectation: Overall CPI year-on-year 3.4%, core CPI year-on-year 2.5%. The market direction for these three scenarios is clear:
1. CPI Higher Than Expected: Inflation stickiness is evident, rate cut expectations are delayed, US Treasury yields and the US dollar rebounded, risk assets are under pressure, and BTC is likely to test support below;
2. CPI meets expectations: The status quo persists, the market continues to fluctuate widely, and the market has broken out of a pull-out shakeout rally;
3. CPI Below Expectations: Rising expectations of rate cuts and falling US Treasury yields are positive for the crypto market, potentially pushing prices above the resistance zone.
Key Risk Warning: Major data is very likely to show a "expectation first, implementation reverse" pattern of "expectation first, implementation reversed" to lure bulls and bears to insert needles. High contract leverage is the greatest risk; avoid heavy positions betting on data results in advance. In the medium to long term, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to fluctuate within a high range, liquidity conditions lack substantial easing, making it difficult to support a one-sided bull market.
3. Interpretation of capital and on-chain signals
1. BTC spot ETF inflows continue to shrink, institutions enter a wait-and-see cycle, only buying small amounts at low prices, with insufficient incremental funds; ETH spot ETHE is more resilient, with ongoing capital positioning, which is the underlying reason ETH is relatively resilient today;
2. Clear on-chain capital divergence: long-term whales continue to hoard at low levels, but short-term holders keep reducing holdings on rebounds; BTC and ETH inventories on exchanges have slightly increased, with ongoing short-term selling pressure;
3. The total market capitalization of stablecoins is stagnant, with a lack of off-exchange incremental funds. The current market is a game of existing capital, making it difficult for a broad-based bull market to occur;
4. A noteworthy phenomenon: Before the CPI implementation, ETH spot buying volume increased significantly, but net short positions in the derivatives market increased. Institutions adopted a "spot reserve layout + contract hedging" approach, resulting in intense bullish and bearish competition.
4. Overview of Potential Industry Risks
1. APT unlocked large tokens today, releasing short-term selling pressure; try to avoid similar unlocked coins in the short term;
2. Hardware wallet security incidents continue to escalate; large assets must be stored in a decentralized manner;
3. The U.S. crypto bill has been postponed to September for review, with short-term policy expectations largely digested and the market fully driven by macro data;
4. The risk of top-tier DEX farmer trading is high, with frequent MEV double-order and rug scams. Be sure to check contract permissions, LP locking, and pool depth before participating.
5. Practical Approach for the Market Outlook
Futures traders
Leverage should be comprehensively reduced, and no holding positions is allowed. Priority should be given to reducing positions near resistance zones during rebounds; At support levels, do not heavily buy the dip in advance; wait for CPI data to be released and the direction becomes clearer before entering the market. In a volatile market, repeatedly stopping losses when chasing orders back and forth is very easy.
Spot traders
Floating profit positions strictly follow a phased take-profit strategy, selling most positions to recover principal when the target price is reached, and using the remaining small portion to compete for subsequent market moves;
Funds that have not yet positioned at low levels should be patient, avoid heavily betting on inflation data in advance, and wait for data to confirm the support is effective before gradually relocating.
Knockoffs & Memes
Avoid coins that are about to unlock large amounts; Do not chase high-rise small-cap coins. Dogu only participates in solid foundations and LP long-term locked positions, fast in and out, and strictly set stop-loss settings.
Key focus for future market observation
US July CPI inflation data, 10-year Treasury yield fluctuations, and whether trading volume will effectively increase after the data is released#July CPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession; #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets is heating up Ethereum's unrealized net loss (NUPL) on Binance has fallen to around -0.35, a region historically linked to major market bottom movements such as 2019-2020, 2022, 2025, and recent declines.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains #CLARITY延期, and the SEC plans to advance regulatory rules to fill the gap
This indicates significant unrealized losses on Ethereum held on Binance, suggesting that some holders with weaker capital may have already started selling. As loss-driven sell-offs mature, downward pressure may ease, creating conditions for market stabilization.
However, this signal has yet to be confirmed. If Ethereum's price remains at a recent low and NUPL rebounds above -0.35, it will further strengthen the signs of a bottom. If NUPL deteriorates further and the price hits new lows, it indicates that the sell-off is not yet complete $ETH 🔥 ** SOL Major Report | August 13, 2026 **
**Solana holds steady at the $75 level! Trading volume surpasses $1.4 billion, funds quietly starting to flow back? Is this a real recovery or just another fake breakout? **
---
### 1. Core Data at a Glance
| Indicators | Data | Interpretation |
|------|------|------|
| **Real-Time Pricing** | **$75.66 – $75.72** | Narrow-range oscillation with a slightly stronger side |
| **24-hour price change** | **+0.9% ~ +1.05%** | Better than BTC, slightly behind ETH |
| **Market Cap** | **Approximately $44.07 billion** | Firmly ranked 7th globally |
| **24-hour trading volume** | **Approximately $1.48 billion** | High capital activity |
| **24-hour Volatility** | $74.85 – $77.07** | A rapid pullback from the low point means buying pressure appears |
| **Circulating Supply** | Approximately 582.5 million SOL | No cap on total supply |
| **Distance from Historical Highpoint** | **-74.3%** | ATH approximately $294 (January 2025) |
---
### 2. Today's Biggest Highlight: Is SOL Starting to "Isolate"?
- BTC was nearly flat today, ETH rose over 1.5%, and SOL also recorded an increase close to 1%, with **relatively strong performance**.
- Trading volume remains above $1.4 billion, indicating it is not a dry market with no volume; real capital is participating.
- Recently, Solana ecosystem heat has rebounded: trading volume, DeFi, MEME, RWA, and other sectors remain active.
- Some institutions and ETF-related funds have recently shown increased interest in SOL.
**Summary of the Current Landscape in One Sentence:**
BTC is playing dead, ETH is taking the lead, and SOL is quietly catching up.
---
### 3. Analysis of Key Technical Positions
**Bull Focus:**
- Strong support: $74.5 – $75.0 (clear support near today's low)
- Near-term resistance: $77.0 – $78.5
- If volume breaks above $78.5, the next target should be the $82–$85 range
**Short Position Risk Points:**
- If it falls below $74, it may retest the $72–$70 support zone
- The rebound height is still in a medium- to long-term downtrend, and the rebound height should be viewed with caution
Currently, the price is stuck at a critical level. **An upward breakout requires volume to match, otherwise it may fall back again**.
---
### 4. Market Sentiment and Fundamentals
- Community sentiment is high, with many people discussing whether Solana will once again become the main player in the next market cycle.
- Network activity remains Solana's core advantage: high TPS and low fees, maintaining clear competitiveness in MEME, DeFi, payments, and other scenarios.
- However, there is still more than a 70% drawdown from the early 2025 high, indicating that the market remains relatively cautious about pricing it.
- The overall fear index remains around 37, indicating a cautious overall environment, making a one-sided surge unlikely in the short term.
---
### 5. Three possible scenarios for the market
1. **Optimistic scenario**: Volume surges above $78.5, boosting counterfeit sentiment and pushing for $85
2. **Neutral scenario**: Continue to consolidate in the $74–$78 range, awaiting a larger directional selection
3. **Pessimistic scenario**: Break below the $74 support, then pull back near $70 or even lower
At present, **a slightly bullish neutral stance** is slightly higher, but trading volume and BTC need to not weaken significantly to cooperate.
---
### 6. One-sentence summary
**Solana did not fall behind today! **
Against the backdrop of BTC consolidating and ETH leading the rally, SOL has proven with nearly a 1% gain that there is still capital interest. Trading volume is not low, there is buying interest at the low, and the short-term structure remains stable. However, there is still significant room to move beyond previous highs. Whether this rebound can turn into a trend depends on whether it can effectively break above $78.5.
---
**Risk Warning**: The crypto market is highly volatile. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please be sure to manage your own risks properly.
$SOL #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? Will an asset fully accepted by institutions still have room for another surge?
This issue is now increasingly worth discussing when it comes to BTC.
Over the past decade or so, Bitcoin's biggest rally logic actually comes from one thing:
Poor cognition.
In the early days, no one believed it.
Some think it's just a bubble, others think it has no real value.
But every bull market is essentially a process of more and more people rediscovering BTC.
In 2017, retail investors entered the market on a large scale for the first time.
After 2020, institutions began allocation.
Then, with the approval of ETFs, Bitcoin officially entered the traditional financial system.
With this steady rise, those who make money are essentially making money that "others haven't fully believed in" before.
But now the biggest problem arises:
Now that Wall Street has begun embracing BTC, can it still replicate the frenzied rally it once had?
This is actually a more important issue than price.
Because BTC is undergoing a change in identity.
Previously, BTC was more like a high-risk, highly volatile alternative asset.
The market is driven by sentiment.
A piece of news.
A policy.
A capital frenzy.
can cause huge fluctuations.
But now it's different.
ETFs, institutional funds, and asset allocation by listed companies have made BTC increasingly resemble a macro asset.
It is beginning to form a stronger correlation with dollar liquidity, U.S. Treasury yields, and global risk appetite.
This is a good thing.
Because it means a larger pool of funds.
It also means that BTC's long-term recognition is increasing.
But the other side also means:
It may be losing some of the early stages of madness.
Gold won't surge 50% in a single day just because of a piece of news.
The S&P 500 also won't suddenly double due to community sentiment.
As an asset matures, its way of rising will inevitably change.
So many people are still asking:
Can BTC still rise to $200,000?
I think the real question should be changed to:
How much capital will be left in the future to treat BTC as a must-allocate asset?
If pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate balance sheets continue to increase BTC allocation in the future, the market space it faces will be much larger than before.
But if institutional funds have already priced in future expectations, the subsequent rise will require new catalysts.
This is also the most interesting aspect of BTC right now.
It has proven that it is not a short-term experiment.
But it also needs to be proven:
After all, I am digital gold.
Or an alternative asset that always maintains high growth and high volatility.
These two directions will determine the valuation logic for a long time to come.
In the past, buying BTC was a gamble that it would succeed.
Buying BTC now is a gamble on how much global asset position it can occupy once successful.
Price determines short-term gains.
Identity determines long-term value $BTC 🉐🌈🌈 Loss: 9th place on the 90-day profit chart, known as the "Ultimate Endurance King"—Cape of Good Hope 999.
Opened a BICO short position at 0.03, the market tripled and surged to 0.09, stubbornly holding the short squeeze.
Key point: When your position reaches the exchange's maximum position, even if you still have funds in your account, you can't add to your position or do T for self-rescue, so you can only hold passively.
The reason they've held out until now is by relying on ample margin to support the bottom line and keeping a distance from the strong parity rate, which gives them a chance to wait for a market pullback.
Recalling my experience trading BEAT: clearly the 1.5 above is a heavy trap zone, making it hard for the market to break through effectively, yet it ended up falling before dawn.
This incident also highlights the huge gap between large counterfeit contract holders and retail investors:
Major players retain capital buffers and are not afraid of short-term extreme pulse fluctuations;
Most retail investors have maxed out their positions and lack room for error. A reverse rally can easily force them to cut losses or be forced to liquidate. Even if the direction is right, it's hard to make it to the market for a rebound.
In the long run, most knockoffs will gradually fall back to square one after a hype.
Understanding the direction isn't hard; the hardest part is whether you can persist until the market returns.
🔥 Interactive Voting:
Can ordinary retail investors play against counterfeit contracts and imitate this passive order holding approach?
✅ Yes: The overall direction is fine, patiently wait for a pullback
❌ No: Retail investors have weak funds and are easily eliminated midway
⚠️ Risk warning: Idea exchange only, does not constitute trading advice. #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
The July CPI is out.
Overall CPI year-over-year is 3.4%, core CPI 2.5%, both 0.1 percentage points lower than last month.
The data isn't bad, but not good enough to directly call for a rate cut.
A big part of the CPI decline this time is due to energy prices dropping 1.5% month-over-month. But looking at the year-over-year comparison, energy still rose 14.7%, and gasoline even increased 24.6%. As long as oil prices rebound, inflation could easily reverse.
Additionally, housing costs contributed about two-thirds of this month's increase, and prices for services like medical care and airfares are still rising. This shows inflation is indeed cooling down, but the hardest-to-control parts haven't completely disappeared.
Combined with the recent nonfarm payrolls, July employment decreased by 23,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 103,000. The current situation in the U.S. is a bit awkward: employment is weakening, but inflation hasn't dropped enough to reassure the Federal Reserve.
So I think the biggest effect of this CPI report is not to prompt the market to immediately trade a rate cut, but to ease concerns about "continued rate hikes."
In the short term, this is positive for tech stocks and the crypto market, allowing a breather. But whether it can continue to rise depends on upcoming PCE, nonfarm payrolls, and oil prices. $BTC Late-night trading saw thin liquidity, with Bitcoin oscillating within a narrow range and undergoing minor adjustments. Supported by fundamentals supporting record-high staking rates, Ethereum emerged independently, showing clear structural divergence in the market. 🌍 ══════════════ [Macroeconomic Background and Sentiment Temperature] The current total market capitalization of the crypto market remains at $2.16 trillion, with a slight 24-hour decrease of 0.72%. The Fear of Corruption Index is at 27, in the 'Fear' range. BTC's market share reached as high as 58.66%, indicating that amid panic, funds still prefer mainstream assets for safe haven, and almocoins have not experienced a broad-based rally. 📊 ══════════════ [Core Data and Logic of Mainstream Coins] 📌 [$BTC Price] $63,491.59 | 24h -0.42% | 7D -1.06% 📌 [BTC Trading Volume] $60.797 billion | 24h +2.34% 💡 Analysis: Bitcoin is fluctuating narrowly above 63,000, with a slight increase in trading volume but no price breakout, indicating that trapped sellers still face selling pressure above. Observing BTC trading pairs on OKX, the order book thickness has significantly thinned compared to daytime, currently in a typical volume shrinkage shakeout phase, awaiting macro directional guidance. 📌 [$ETH Price] $1,893.13 | 24h +1.08% | 7d +1.35% 📌 [ETH Trading Volume] $6.721 billion | 24h +10.81% 💡 Analysis: Ethereum closed against the trendFinally made a small deal #July's CPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? Traditional assets are all rising, but Bitcoin has failed to keep up; this contrast is more worth watching than the rally itself.
US stocks and gold both rose, but Bitcoin continued to lag behind; ETF funds returning did not drive a significant rebound.
Now, several bottom-fishing indicators have already lit up. The question is: is this a signal that the cycle bottom is approaching, or is the market still waiting for clearer confirmation?
Source: PANews
#Crypto100WKevin Walsh speaks at 10 o'clock! CPI benefits may directly become invalid, tonight is the key point for bulls and bears
Key points
Walsh's stance is flexibly hawkish, having repeatedly spoken against market expectations in the past, with a single sentence capable of overturning the market.
1. Inflation statement is core
This CPI just meets expectations, and the market generally bets on easing. If he emphasizes that the inflation decline is a one-time phenomenon and delays rate cuts, the dollar strengthens, and $BTC, $ETH, and storage tokens collectively come under pressure; if he acknowledges continued cooling of inflation, risk assets rally across the board.
2. Rate cut pace and balance sheet views
If he signals rate cuts within the year, $xSNDK and $xSKHY storage mainlines continue strong; if hawkish and maintaining balance sheet reduction, high-level clustered funds will flee.
3. Attitude towards crypto and AI
Moderate regulatory wording benefits $BTC and $XRP; optimism about AI's long-term logic can only temporarily buffer negative impacts.
Predictions for various assets
- BTC/ETH: Hawkish stance pulls back to key support, dovish breaks through range resistance, strictly avoid heavy one-sided bets in advance
- Storage tokens: The strongest mainline this round, liquidity tightening easily triggers profit-taking stampedes
- $XAUT Gold: If inflation worries persist, it holds above 4400; if rate cut expectations cool, it directly pulls back
- $SPCX: Combined with unlocking negative factors, macro tightening will cause double weakness
Practical advice
Reduce contract leverage before the speech, mainly observe. Hawkish positioning in gold, $BNB/$OKB for hedging; dovish landing then follow mainstream and storage sectors accordingly, beware of two-way spikes causing stop losses during the speech. $POPMART Directly support points on Ouyi
Honestly, when I saw Ouyi launch the Pop Mart perpetual contract, I instantly understood—
The crypto world has truly become completely equityized, with no way out at all.
In the past, the crypto world was just the crypto world, and the stock market was the stock market.
We came here to avoid the fundamentals of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, avoid unlocking restrictions, avoid the drag on the overall market, and seek freedom and an independent market.
And now, look at it.
Nvidia, SpaceX, and now even Pop Mart have entered the crypto world to leverage their own hands.
It's so surreal.
A trendy Hong Kong stock market is directly listed on crypto exchanges for 24-hour perpetual trading.
It's like telling everyone:
Everything in the traditional stock market has been transferred into the crypto world.
There will be no more "independent crypto market trends" in the future.
There is no more pure coin speculation.
It's big finance, individual stock sentiment, consumer sectors, and the linkage between Hong Kong and US stocks.
You love Pop Mart's IP popularity, you see consumption recovery, you speculate on individual stock expectations—
All of this can be leveraged in the crypto world.
The last bit of "niche, unique, wild" flavor in the crypto world has completely disappeared.
In the past, it relied on emotions, popularity, and faith.
Now: fundamentals, the overall market, capital flows, and individual stock logic are exactly the same.
To put it bluntly:
After all the twists and turns, we ended up trading stocks at brokerages, just switching to a 24-hour non-sleeping market with even wilder volatility.
This is the current market reality. #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
I'm Brother Ci, the CPI data is out, let's look directly at the numbers.
Overall CPI year-on-year is 2.7%, month-on-month 0.2%. Core CPI year-on-year is 3.1%, month-on-month 0.3%. The market previously expected overall year-on-year at 3.4%, core year-on-year at 2.5%. Overall is below expectations, core is above expectations. Inflation is cooling down, but the stickiness of core inflation is stronger than the market anticipated.
Breaking down this data:
Overall CPI year-on-year is 2.7%, the lowest level since 2021. Month-on-month 0.2% also meets expectations. Core CPI year-on-year is 3.1%, higher than the market expectation of 2.5%, month-on-month 0.3% also higher than the expected 0.2%. The stickiness of core service inflation remains, with housing and medical service prices not falling as quickly as overall inflation.
Oil prices have fallen from the July high to around $80, which clearly drags down overall CPI. But the stickiness of core service inflation mainly comes from housing costs and wage growth, two variables insensitive to interest rates, so rate cuts cannot suppress them. Non-farm data has confirmed employment is cooling, but core inflation data reminds the market that the cooling speed may not be fast enough.
Impact on BTC:
Overall CPI is below expectations, core CPI is above expectations, directions are opposite, but the overall narrative is moderate. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September will not rise sharply because of this data, as overall inflation is indeed trending down. But the stickiness of core inflation will suppress rate cut expectations, and the market needs more time to wait for easing signals.
BTC is very likely to have a short-term rebound, with 64500 to 65000 as the first target, a breakthrough looking at 65500. But the sustainability of the rebound needs verification; higher core inflation means the Fed will not rush to signal a shift. If core inflation remains high, BTC may be blocked and fall back again in the 65500 to 66000 range.
Operations:
Continue holding long positions at 62288, move The US CPI has just been released: all four key figures met expectations, and the real direction now depends on the market's own choices
This time, the CPI is not "data giving answers," but rather data handing the choice back to the market.
I won't chase the first wave, waiting for the market to chart its own direction
US CPI data for July has just been released:
CPI year-on-year 3.4%, expected 3.4%, previous 3.5%
CPI month-on-month 0.1%, expected 0.1%
Core CPI month-on-month 0.2%, expected 0.2%
Core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, expected 2.5%, previous 2.6%
My judgment is simple: this data did not significantly exceed or fall below expectations, and overall is neutral with a slightly dovish bias. Year-on-year inflation continues to decline slightly, but not enough to push $BTC $ETH or gold $XAU out of the major trend on their own.
So now, the biggest taboo is to chase directly after the first big bullish candlestick or bearish candle. Once the data fully meets expectations, the real value next is the market's own reaction: if BTC can break through and hold steady on volume without additional positive news, it means the funds themselves are strong; Conversely, if such data doesn't move and even surges and then pulls back, then be cautious of selling pressure above.
I'm now focusing on how the first 5-minute candlestick after 20:35 closes, and whether there will be a breakout with increased volume, pullback after breakout, or abnormal insertion of needles. Gold also focuses on the combination of the US dollar and US Treasury yields.
This time, the CPI is not "data giving answers," but rather data handing the choice back to the market.
I won't chase the first wave, waiting for the market to chart its own direction.The main reason for the recent rise of SPCX (Nasdaq ticker) is a multiple resonance of "unlocked-up unsold shares + short covering + earnings growth narrative + analyst upward revisions," rather than a simple fundamental abrupt shift.
1. The first batch of large-scale restricted shares was unlocked (around August 6), with no expected selling pressure (the core catalyst).
• Approximately 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked, with a significant increase in free float (expanding from around 4-5%).
• The market had previously widely expected a "hundred-billion-level selling pressure" to drive sell-offs, and the stock price had already plunged ahead of time to absorb the negative news before the lock-up was lifted (it once dropped to a low near $105).
• On the day of the unlocking and subsequent trading sessions, insiders and early investors did not concentrate on heavy selling; instead, the market interpreted this as an "internal confidence signal." As a result, the stock price rose instead of falling, forming a typical "negative news exhausted" rebound.
2. High short ratio triggered coverage (short-term amplifier)
• Before the lock-up, the short position ratio once reached over 30%-36% of tradable shares (data from S3 Partners and others), which is extremely high.
• Once the stock price starts to rise, bears are forced to close their positions and buy, forming a self-reinforcing short squeeze.
• On August 7, the stock surged nearly 16% in a single day, and after the lock-up was lifted, it rose about 23% in total, with market value rebounding sharply. Options trading volume also hit a record (with a high proportion of call options), further amplifying volatility.
3. Strong Q2 earnings growth offset concerns over high capital expenditures
• Revenue was approximately $7.81 billion (+92% year-on-year), significantly exceeding expectations; Adjusted EBITDA was strong; Net loss narrowed.
• Starlink users and orders continue to grow, with AI-related revenue (computing power/cloud services, etc.) exploding in growth.
• The market initially worried about cash flow due to high Capex (especially huge investments in AI infrastructure), which led to brief pressure after the earnings report, but then shifted focus back to "growth stories + long-term AI/space narratives."
4. Analysts raise their price and share other positive factors
• Argus Research upgraded its rating from "Hold" to "Buy," believing that AI infrastructure investments are beginning to show rapid returns.
• Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and others maintain or raise their target prices (some have set higher long-term targets).
• At the same time, news about the Terafab chip factory (related to Tesla and a major project in Texas) reinforced the integrated narrative of "space + communications + AI infrastructure."
Background Supplement (Logic behind the initial IPO surge)
After listing on June 12, 2026, SPCX surged from the issue price of $135 to the $220+ range in a short period due to extremely low float (about 4% at first) + retail investor FOMO + Musk narrative + rapid index inclusion expectations + options gamma squeeze expectations. Subsequently, due to high valuation, unlocking expectations, and earnings concerns, it pulled back sharply, but this recent wave has seen a strong rebound from a low point.
Summary: This rally is a typical case of "expectation disparity trading"—everyone thought the unlock + high Capex = a certain drop, but the unlock didn't sell, the bears were squeezed, and growth data supported the narrative. Short-term volatility is extremely high; further attention remains on more unlocking batches, actual selling pressure, AI investment returns, and Starship commercialization progress. The stock price has clearly rebounded from the low point and is close to/back near the IPO price area, but still well below the previous high.
$SPCX It's late at night, and I've compiled some quick reports:
Tonight is quite a bit informative, so I'll thread a few threads together
Good evening, brothers. Tonight's news is a bit dense, so let's pick a few key points to sort out. CPI implementation, CLARITY delay, SEC taking action themselves, AI infrastructure earnings report exploding, gold surging to 4400—every single order could be discussed for half a day, and it's even more interesting to link them together.
CPI Landing, Probability of a Rate Hike in September Drops to 44%
Let's start with the most important part. The US July CPI data is out tonight: overall CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, month-on-month 0.1%, and core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, all in line with expectations.
After the data was released, CME FedWatch showed that the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose to 55.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike dropped to 44.1%.
Rate hike expectations have cooled down, but haven't been completely ruled out yet. A 44% chance of a rate hike means there's still room for debate before the September FOMC. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs chief economist Hazus directly said the Fed won't raise rates in 2026, but traders are still betting on 44%. Institutions and economists have already sided with 'no rate hikes,' while the market is still hesitating.
The CLARITY Act was postponed, and the SEC took action itself
Another noteworthy event is that the Senate vote on the CLARITY bill has officially been pushed to September. On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 has dropped from over 70% at the beginning of the year to 17%.
But the SEC is not idle. On Friday, August 14, at 10 a.m., the SEC will hold a public meeting to review a new regulation called "Regulation Crypto Assets." This is the SEC's first formal rule-making process for crypto assets.
Simply put: there's no movement from Congress, so the SEC steps in on its own. Whether this is good or bad for the crypto market is still hard to say, but at least it shows regulators are still pushing forward.
AI infrastructure financial reports explode, reaffirming the logic behind storage chips
CoreWeave's Q2 revenue was $2.58 billion, up 112% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. After hours, it surged 15%-16%. With orders surpassing $100 billion, the company also raised its full-year revenue forecast.
AI computing power demand is still surging. AI needs computing power→ computing power needs servers→ servers need storage chips—this chain is still ongoing.
Gold surged to 4400, with safe-haven sentiment still lingering
Gold has twice surpassed $4,400 in the past two days, hitting a new high since June. Both institutional funds and central banks are buying. Gold's continued strength at least indicates one thing—concerns about inflation and geopolitical issues persist.
Let's look at the four lines strung together
CPI meets expectations → rate hike probability drops to 44% → risk assets are taking a short-term breather. CLARITY delay → regulatory uncertainty remains → SEC meeting Friday is the next window to watch. Gold surges to 4400 → risk aversion remains strong. AI infrastructure earnings report beats expectations → Storage chip demand logic remains intact.
Longs and bears are intertwined, and the direction isn't completely unified. Control your position well, don't bet on one-sided.
Brothers, which of these topics are you most interested in tonight? Let's talk in the comments. 👇 #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession. #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets is heating up $BTC Russia's line is underestimated
Russia is rumored to allow BTC, ETH, and USDT to be traded on legitimate exchanges. In the sanctions environment, they need a non-US channel, which is a very strong logic. It's just rumors now, it's still early to implement, but if the direction is right, it's more important than a single day's price swings. I treat this as a long-term variable, no rush for a day. Are you focusing on geopolitical pricing of BTC?Guys, I've opened too many times again. The nonfarm payroll data for May and June has been significantly revised downward.
To put it simply, the actual situation of U.S. employment in May and June is somewhat worse.
In May, nonfarm payrolls were revised down from 172,000 to 129,000, a 25% decrease.
In June, nonfarm payrolls were revised down from 57,000 to 20,000, a 65% reduction.
In July, nonfarm payrolls were -23,000.
The Fed may not raise rates before the midterm elections or even until the end of the year.
Bee's theory is that the Department of Labor was working hard to cooperate with Trump's midterm elections, causing a large discrepancy in nonfarm payroll data early on.
As the midterm elections approach, further downward revisions to the data create an environment and atmosphere for the Fed to avoid raising interest rates, or even cut rates.
Of course, this is just a 'pubic hair' theory, without any evidence. People just treat it as Brother Bee telling stories, grabbing attention, and trying to attract traffic.
However, it is true that employment data has been significantly revised downward, and the downward trend in U.S. employment is also a fact.
On July 30, Bee's post mentioned that Visa, Uber, ServiceNow, Disney, and Patreon have all clearly announced upcoming layoffs......Today, the CPI was implemented
CPI came out today, the market breathed a sigh of relief, but BTC still hovered around 63,000. Interestingly, in September, traders raised the probability of the Fed holding steady to 60%. What does this mean? Inflation hasn't exploded, but it's not completely cold either; rate cut expectations have been pushed back. BTC is an asset that depends on liquidity expectations the most; it keeps grinding before the boots are even hit. How did you handle this wave of data today?I stopped my loss, you’re awesome, dog whale $SNDK
Just clicked to close the position, my hands are a bit shaky. The short position with an average price of 1227 held up to 1380, a full 150 points, 10x leverage, floating loss rolled from -45% to almost liquidation. In the end, I still couldn’t hold on.
---
Reviewing the trade
The price kept breaking through MA5, MA10, MA20, all moving averages diverging upwards, the bullish arrangement was clear at a glance. Intraday it touched 1388.60, with 73% buy orders vs 27% sell orders on the order book, and the funding rate was ridiculously negative—all signals were saying "don’t short anymore," but I was still hoping for a pullback.
Stop loss was set above 1388, and the moment the price triggered it, I actually felt relieved.
---
Lesson
Holding a losing position is a disease that needs curing.
From 1227 to 1380, there were countless chances to exit with a small loss, each time telling myself "hold a bit longer, the pullback is coming soon." What happened? No pullback came, only bigger losses.
Stop loss isn’t losing money, it’s paying for a lesson. Whether this tuition was worth it depends on if I can remember it going forward.
---
Dog whale, you won this round, see you next round.
$BTC $ETH
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 Why is it difficult for BTC to break out into an independent trend after the CPI release?
Many traders expect the crypto market to develop an independent trend separate from the US stock market after the CPI data is released, but this is currently very challenging.
The current market capital structure dictates that incremental funds in the crypto space heavily depend on the risk appetite of the US tech sector. As long as the Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors continue to fluctuate, BTC and ETH will find it hard to sustain a persistent one-sided rally.
Another easily overlooked signal: during this round of fluctuations, the BTC/ETH ratio remains high. This means the mainstream capital view still treats Bitcoin as a defensive base holding, only allocating small positions in Ethereum to speculate on its volatility. Under this capital structure, it is difficult for ETH to consistently outperform BTC in a strong trend.
Simple position review:
$BTC 63800 is the first support, 64500 is short-term strong resistance; repeated pressure will continue to grind the range;
$ETH 1890 support, 1940 resistance; to open upward space, a volume breakout above resistance is necessary.
Risk reminder: volatility will increase during the data window, so contract leverage should be reduced first. Frequent spikes in the choppy market make heavy positions prone to being repeatedly stopped out. Despite BTC rising, a mixed trend is seen with individual altcoins sharply falling in parallel. Is the market truly absorbing selling pressure, or has localized position liquidation begun? According to the original text, BTC fell 0.48% to $63,666, ETH rose 0.48% to $1,882, and SOL increased 0.49% to $76.39. DOGE rose 3.78%, XRP 0.89%, and OKB 0.22%, maintaining strength. Conversely, BICO plunged 7.03%, ACE 13.75%, DUCK 19.93%, CARDS 5.44%, and SPURS 1.77%, showing extreme divergence in individual asset returns. On the surface, the market did not decline together. DOGE, SOL, XRP, SLX, PEOPLE, PENGUSDT, and others held gains, which can be interpreted as capital not fully exiting the crypto market but rather profit-taking occurring in recently surged assets, with reallocations toward relatively less-risen assets or specific themes. However, the extent of decline in some altcoin assets... With the CPI final figure, the market has officially entered the 'expectations vacuum period'
The US July CPI data perfectly matched market expectations, with no unexpected surprises or severe inflation scares.
Many mistakenly believe that a one-sided rally will start as soon as the data is released, but they overlook a key point: once the biggest macro suspense disappears, the market shifts from "trading expectations" to "verifying the sustainability of funds."
History repeatedly shows: a neutral CPI environment makes it difficult to generate sustained large-scale rallies. Liquidity expectations are stable, downside space is sealed, but lacking incremental positive momentum to drive large-scale capital attacks, the market naturally tends to fluctuate within a range.
Looking at the market map, the divergence between $BTC and $ETH continues to emerge. In the short term, ETH has the advantage in elasticity, but remember, high elasticity is a double-edged sword; Once bullish funds weaken, the pullback will also be greater than Bitcoin's.
Additionally, capital attention is quietly shifting, with sentiment at the US stock market opening becoming a new anchor point tonight. The memory chip sector is experiencing multiple news catalysts, with sharp divergences between bulls and bears. Stocks like SNDK and MU are news-driven recovery, so do not mistake short-term sentiment rebounds for trend reversals.
Trading Insights: The biggest taboo in a volatile market is chasing gains and selling losses; pulse rallies are mostly short-term capital games. Patiently wait for key support levels before acting.US July CPI Brief Review | Inflation remains sticky, and rate cut expectations continue to be in contention 📊
[Core Data]
✅ Overall CPI year-on-year was 3.4% (previous 3.5%), month-on-month +0.1%
✅ Core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year (previous 2.6%), month-on-month +0.2%
Inflation has edged down, but core values remain strong month-on-month, still falling short of the Fed's 2% target.
🔍 Driver teardown
▪️ Energy prices are declining, continuing to drag down overall inflation readings
▪️ Food inflation remains moderate
▪️ Housing rents remain the biggest drag, with a slow pace of decline and strong sticky inflation
▪️ Server-side wage resilience remains, and inflation is unlikely to decline quickly
💡 Market analysis
This data basically meets expectations, further lowering the probability of an immediate rate cut in September.
It would take several consecutive months of weakening core CPI month-on-month for the real rate cut window to open.
📈 Assets have a simple logic
▪️ Stubborn inflation → delayed rate cuts have made US dollar and US Treasury yields likely to strengthen, weighing on gold and growth assets
▪️ Inflation continues to cool→ expectations for rate cuts return, which is positive for risk assets and gold
⚠️ Risk Points: Middle East tensions can disrupt oil prices and could rebound at any time to drive up inflation.
👉 Key focus going forward: core CPI month-on-month, housing rent, crude oil prices, and PCE prices.
The above is only a macro logical exchange and does not constitute any investment adviceBTC multiples get worse with each round, but certainty is worth a fortune.
2011: 3 million times
2013: 580 times
2017: 130 times
2021: 22 times
2025: 8 times
Entering at 60,000 yuan only doubles at the previous high, so the room for imagination is indeed limited. If it really drops to 40,000, the previous price is three times higher, and the lead is four times higher, then the fish body is enough to eat.
But don't forget: knockoffs will be wiped out, exchanges will run away, MEME will hit zero overnight, $ICP dropped from 700 to 2 dollars.
$BTC From $32 to $126,000, fourteen years—every bear market washes through, and the next round hits new highs.
The multiplier is low because it has turned from a lottery ticket into an asset.
Institutions treat it as digital gold—not relying on multipliers to survive, but not dying on it.
Criticizing it for having low multipliers is right. Saying it lacks certainty is foolish.
My strategy: Don't crash to over 40,000, not move an inch.
If the price really hits, just go all-in with your eyes closed. $OKB Keep a reserve position, and the knockoff will use some spare money to short-sell and play around.
It's this kind of drive—at worst, you just miss your mark.
Do you think I'll miss out? 😂
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#新手必看: Everything you need is here
#特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大, BTC holdings declined Evening Plan:
Macro CPI data was delivered as scheduled, and after the positive news materialized, the market quickly shifted to a "buy expectation, sell facts" trend. BTC encountered strong selling pressure near the 64,500 range; after bulls failed to surge, bears quickly took over the market, causing the price to plunge from the high volume down to around 63,300, with a one-way correction of over 1,100 points. Although the current market is attempting a pullback near 63,500, the rebound is strong and there is insufficient follow-up capital, resulting in a very weak sideways recovery.
On the 1-hour level, the MACD maintained a death cross with widening downward openings, the green bars (bearish momentum) continued to increase in volume, and the RSI has entered a weak range with no signs of stopping or slowing downward. The risk of inertia downward remains.
The short-term candlestick pattern shows a bearish downward trend, constrained by the dynamic resistance of the MA5 and MA10, and has now broken through several short-term moving averages. The moving average system has turned at a high level and diverged downward, forming a bearish alignment. The rebound at 64,500 was followed by significant volume growth, confirming this level as a recent strong top.
The first support below is the psychological level at 63,000; if it breaks down, the downside space will open, with retracement targets looking toward the 62,500 area; Resistance above is concentrated in the 63,800 - 64,000 turnover band.
Given the overall bear-dominated structure remains unchanged, short-term strategies mainly follow the trend and sell on rallies:
Reference range: Rebound to the 63,800 - 64,000 area to look for pressure signals and short selling in batches.
Risk Control Defense: Defend above 64200.
Downside target: Aim for a break below 63,000; if volume rises and it breaks below, further downside may reach 62,500.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains #特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大, and BTC holdings have dropped by $BTC $ETH [Pharaoh Market Watch]
Pharaoh bluntly said Strategy is selling coins again, this time with 1,690 tokens, marking its third consecutive week of selling. The once "never sell" myth is now completely over.
Let's first look at the specific numbers for this week. In the week of August 10, Strategy sold 1,690 BTC at an average price of $64,262, cashing out $109 million. Over six weeks, it sold a total of 6,916 BTC, cashing out $429 million. But selling coins was at a loss: the average holding cost was $75,385, the selling price was $64,262, resulting in a single loss of about $18.8 million.
Where did the money go? It was all spent on repurchasing STRC preferred shares. Meanwhile, Strategy is raising funds by issuing additional common shares, and as of August 9, its cash reserves have piled up to $4.65 billion.
Selling coins on one hand, issuing additional shares on the other, hoarding cash on the other—doing all three things at once. Would you say this is faith, or is it just settling accounts?
In the corporate treasury track, the mindset has completely diverged.
On the Strategy side, unable to withstand the pressure from preferred stock dividends, it is selling at a loss. On the other hand, Strive increased its holdings by 6,236 BTC in Q2, with cumulative holdings surpassing 20,000. Bitmine is also continuously increasing its ETH holdings, staking nearly 4.9 million ETH, with an expected annualized staking income of about $247 million.
One is selling, two are buying. Corporate treasuries have shifted from a one-way narrative of "buy only, not sell" to a diversified pattern of increasing holdings, selling, buybacks, and hoarding cash.
When the "Bitcoin central bank" starts treating coins like ATMs, this once most important demand engine is stalling. But differentiation itself is creating new opportunities; buying has not disappeared, only players have changed. Pharaoh still says: good orders are made by waiting. Whales are rebalancing; whether you follow the crowd or wait for an opportunity, you choose. $ETH $BEAT $SOL #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate treasuries are diverging The Russian central bank quietly opened a door but only opened its doors to BTC, ETH, and USDT. Do you know what that means? The main background of this new rule is: non-qualified investors can spend up to 300,000 rubles (just over $3,000) per year to buy crypto assets, and they can only touch three things—Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether. The threshold is not high, but the signal is clear: Russia is giving crypto assets a "legal but limited" position. I stared at this news for a while, and my first reaction wasn't "Russians can finally buy coins," but rather: this is actually a structural confirmation of sector strength. - Russia's coin selection logic: large market cap, long pricing history—this is basically the exclusive label for BTC and ETH - altcoins are completely excluded, even Solana and BNB are not on the list - USDT included shows regulators focus on stablecoins' "channel value" rather than speculative value From the perspective of sector rotation, this conveys a subtle preference: even if a window is opened in emerging markets, regulators still choose "blue-chip assets." This is highly consistent with the choices made by European and American institutional funds over the past two years—big money wants certainty, not flexibility. For BTC, this is yet another "national-level" default endorsement. Even a small 300,000 ruble scale reinforces a narrative: Bitcoin is transforming from a marginal asset into a "regulatory-acceptable reserve asset." ETH is similar, singled out,