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🔥 ** SOL Major Report | August 13, 2026 **
**Solana holds steady at the $75 level! Trading volume surpasses $1.4 billion, funds quietly starting to flow back? Is this a real recovery or just another fake breakout? **
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### 1. Core Data at a Glance
| Indicators | Data | Interpretation |
|------|------|------|
| **Real-Time Pricing** | **$75.66 – $75.72** | Narrow-range oscillation with a slightly stronger side |
| **24-hour price change** | **+0.9% ~ +1.05%** | Better than BTC, slightly behind ETH |
| **Market Cap** | **Approximately $44.07 billion** | Firmly ranked 7th globally |
| **24-hour trading volume** | **Approximately $1.48 billion** | High capital activity |
| **24-hour Volatility** | $74.85 – $77.07** | A rapid pullback from the low point means buying pressure appears |
| **Circulating Supply** | Approximately 582.5 million SOL | No cap on total supply |
| **Distance from Historical Highpoint** | **-74.3%** | ATH approximately $294 (January 2025) |
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### 2. Today's Biggest Highlight: Is SOL Starting to "Isolate"?
- BTC was nearly flat today, ETH rose over 1.5%, and SOL also recorded an increase close to 1%, with **relatively strong performance**.
- Trading volume remains above $1.4 billion, indicating it is not a dry market with no volume; real capital is participating.
- Recently, Solana ecosystem heat has rebounded: trading volume, DeFi, MEME, RWA, and other sectors remain active.
- Some institutions and ETF-related funds have recently shown increased interest in SOL.
**Summary of the Current Landscape in One Sentence:**
BTC is playing dead, ETH is taking the lead, and SOL is quietly catching up.
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### 3. Analysis of Key Technical Positions
**Bull Focus:**
- Strong support: $74.5 – $75.0 (clear support near today's low)
- Near-term resistance: $77.0 – $78.5
- If volume breaks above $78.5, the next target should be the $82–$85 range
**Short Position Risk Points:**
- If it falls below $74, it may retest the $72–$70 support zone
- The rebound height is still in a medium- to long-term downtrend, and the rebound height should be viewed with caution
Currently, the price is stuck at a critical level. **An upward breakout requires volume to match, otherwise it may fall back again**.
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### 4. Market Sentiment and Fundamentals
- Community sentiment is high, with many people discussing whether Solana will once again become the main player in the next market cycle.
- Network activity remains Solana's core advantage: high TPS and low fees, maintaining clear competitiveness in MEME, DeFi, payments, and other scenarios.
- However, there is still more than a 70% drawdown from the early 2025 high, indicating that the market remains relatively cautious about pricing it.
- The overall fear index remains around 37, indicating a cautious overall environment, making a one-sided surge unlikely in the short term.
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### 5. Three possible scenarios for the market
1. **Optimistic scenario**: Volume surges above $78.5, boosting counterfeit sentiment and pushing for $85
2. **Neutral scenario**: Continue to consolidate in the $74–$78 range, awaiting a larger directional selection
3. **Pessimistic scenario**: Break below the $74 support, then pull back near $70 or even lower
At present, **a slightly bullish neutral stance** is slightly higher, but trading volume and BTC need to not weaken significantly to cooperate.
---
### 6. One-sentence summary
**Solana did not fall behind today! **
Against the backdrop of BTC consolidating and ETH leading the rally, SOL has proven with nearly a 1% gain that there is still capital interest. Trading volume is not low, there is buying interest at the low, and the short-term structure remains stable. However, there is still significant room to move beyond previous highs. Whether this rebound can turn into a trend depends on whether it can effectively break above $78.5.
---
**Risk Warning**: The crypto market is highly volatile. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please be sure to manage your own risks properly.
$SOL #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? Will an asset fully accepted by institutions still have room for another surge?
This issue is now increasingly worth discussing when it comes to BTC.
Over the past decade or so, Bitcoin's biggest rally logic actually comes from one thing:
Poor cognition.
In the early days, no one believed it.
Some think it's just a bubble, others think it has no real value.
But every bull market is essentially a process of more and more people rediscovering BTC.
In 2017, retail investors entered the market on a large scale for the first time.
After 2020, institutions began allocation.
Then, with the approval of ETFs, Bitcoin officially entered the traditional financial system.
With this steady rise, those who make money are essentially making money that "others haven't fully believed in" before.
But now the biggest problem arises:
Now that Wall Street has begun embracing BTC, can it still replicate the frenzied rally it once had?
This is actually a more important issue than price.
Because BTC is undergoing a change in identity.
Previously, BTC was more like a high-risk, highly volatile alternative asset.
The market is driven by sentiment.
A piece of news.
A policy.
A capital frenzy.
can cause huge fluctuations.
But now it's different.
ETFs, institutional funds, and asset allocation by listed companies have made BTC increasingly resemble a macro asset.
It is beginning to form a stronger correlation with dollar liquidity, U.S. Treasury yields, and global risk appetite.
This is a good thing.
Because it means a larger pool of funds.
It also means that BTC's long-term recognition is increasing.
But the other side also means:
It may be losing some of the early stages of madness.
Gold won't surge 50% in a single day just because of a piece of news.
The S&P 500 also won't suddenly double due to community sentiment.
As an asset matures, its way of rising will inevitably change.
So many people are still asking:
Can BTC still rise to $200,000?
I think the real question should be changed to:
How much capital will be left in the future to treat BTC as a must-allocate asset?
If pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate balance sheets continue to increase BTC allocation in the future, the market space it faces will be much larger than before.
But if institutional funds have already priced in future expectations, the subsequent rise will require new catalysts.
This is also the most interesting aspect of BTC right now.
It has proven that it is not a short-term experiment.
But it also needs to be proven:
After all, I am digital gold.
Or an alternative asset that always maintains high growth and high volatility.
These two directions will determine the valuation logic for a long time to come.
In the past, buying BTC was a gamble that it would succeed.
Buying BTC now is a gamble on how much global asset position it can occupy once successful.
Price determines short-term gains.
Identity determines long-term value $BTC 🉐🌈🌈 Loss: 9th place on the 90-day profit chart, known as the "Ultimate Endurance King"—Cape of Good Hope 999.
Opened a BICO short position at 0.03, the market tripled and surged to 0.09, stubbornly holding the short squeeze.
Key point: When your position reaches the exchange's maximum position, even if you still have funds in your account, you can't add to your position or do T for self-rescue, so you can only hold passively.
The reason they've held out until now is by relying on ample margin to support the bottom line and keeping a distance from the strong parity rate, which gives them a chance to wait for a market pullback.
Recalling my experience trading BEAT: clearly the 1.5 above is a heavy trap zone, making it hard for the market to break through effectively, yet it ended up falling before dawn.
This incident also highlights the huge gap between large counterfeit contract holders and retail investors:
Major players retain capital buffers and are not afraid of short-term extreme pulse fluctuations;
Most retail investors have maxed out their positions and lack room for error. A reverse rally can easily force them to cut losses or be forced to liquidate. Even if the direction is right, it's hard to make it to the market for a rebound.
In the long run, most knockoffs will gradually fall back to square one after a hype.
Understanding the direction isn't hard; the hardest part is whether you can persist until the market returns.
🔥 Interactive Voting:
Can ordinary retail investors play against counterfeit contracts and imitate this passive order holding approach?
✅ Yes: The overall direction is fine, patiently wait for a pullback
❌ No: Retail investors have weak funds and are easily eliminated midway
⚠️ Risk warning: Idea exchange only, does not constitute trading advice. #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
The July CPI is out.
Overall CPI year-over-year is 3.4%, core CPI 2.5%, both 0.1 percentage points lower than last month.
The data isn't bad, but not good enough to directly call for a rate cut.
A big part of the CPI decline this time is due to energy prices dropping 1.5% month-over-month. But looking at the year-over-year comparison, energy still rose 14.7%, and gasoline even increased 24.6%. As long as oil prices rebound, inflation could easily reverse.
Additionally, housing costs contributed about two-thirds of this month's increase, and prices for services like medical care and airfares are still rising. This shows inflation is indeed cooling down, but the hardest-to-control parts haven't completely disappeared.
Combined with the recent nonfarm payrolls, July employment decreased by 23,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 103,000. The current situation in the U.S. is a bit awkward: employment is weakening, but inflation hasn't dropped enough to reassure the Federal Reserve.
So I think the biggest effect of this CPI report is not to prompt the market to immediately trade a rate cut, but to ease concerns about "continued rate hikes."
In the short term, this is positive for tech stocks and the crypto market, allowing a breather. But whether it can continue to rise depends on upcoming PCE, nonfarm payrolls, and oil prices. $BTC Late-night trading saw thin liquidity, with Bitcoin oscillating within a narrow range and undergoing minor adjustments. Supported by fundamentals supporting record-high staking rates, Ethereum emerged independently, showing clear structural divergence in the market. 🌍 ══════════════ [Macroeconomic Background and Sentiment Temperature] The current total market capitalization of the crypto market remains at $2.16 trillion, with a slight 24-hour decrease of 0.72%. The Fear of Corruption Index is at 27, in the 'Fear' range. BTC's market share reached as high as 58.66%, indicating that amid panic, funds still prefer mainstream assets for safe haven, and almocoins have not experienced a broad-based rally. 📊 ══════════════ [Core Data and Logic of Mainstream Coins] 📌 [$BTC Price] $63,491.59 | 24h -0.42% | 7D -1.06% 📌 [BTC Trading Volume] $60.797 billion | 24h +2.34% 💡 Analysis: Bitcoin is fluctuating narrowly above 63,000, with a slight increase in trading volume but no price breakout, indicating that trapped sellers still face selling pressure above. Observing BTC trading pairs on OKX, the order book thickness has significantly thinned compared to daytime, currently in a typical volume shrinkage shakeout phase, awaiting macro directional guidance. 📌 [$ETH Price] $1,893.13 | 24h +1.08% | 7d +1.35% 📌 [ETH Trading Volume] $6.721 billion | 24h +10.81% 💡 Analysis: Ethereum closed against the trendFinally made a small deal #July's CPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? Traditional assets are all rising, but Bitcoin has failed to keep up; this contrast is more worth watching than the rally itself.
US stocks and gold both rose, but Bitcoin continued to lag behind; ETF funds returning did not drive a significant rebound.
Now, several bottom-fishing indicators have already lit up. The question is: is this a signal that the cycle bottom is approaching, or is the market still waiting for clearer confirmation?
Source: PANews
#Crypto100WKevin Walsh speaks at 10 o'clock! CPI benefits may directly become invalid, tonight is the key point for bulls and bears
Key points
Walsh's stance is flexibly hawkish, having repeatedly spoken against market expectations in the past, with a single sentence capable of overturning the market.
1. Inflation statement is core
This CPI just meets expectations, and the market generally bets on easing. If he emphasizes that the inflation decline is a one-time phenomenon and delays rate cuts, the dollar strengthens, and $BTC, $ETH, and storage tokens collectively come under pressure; if he acknowledges continued cooling of inflation, risk assets rally across the board.
2. Rate cut pace and balance sheet views
If he signals rate cuts within the year, $xSNDK and $xSKHY storage mainlines continue strong; if hawkish and maintaining balance sheet reduction, high-level clustered funds will flee.
3. Attitude towards crypto and AI
Moderate regulatory wording benefits $BTC and $XRP; optimism about AI's long-term logic can only temporarily buffer negative impacts.
Predictions for various assets
- BTC/ETH: Hawkish stance pulls back to key support, dovish breaks through range resistance, strictly avoid heavy one-sided bets in advance
- Storage tokens: The strongest mainline this round, liquidity tightening easily triggers profit-taking stampedes
- $XAUT Gold: If inflation worries persist, it holds above 4400; if rate cut expectations cool, it directly pulls back
- $SPCX: Combined with unlocking negative factors, macro tightening will cause double weakness
Practical advice
Reduce contract leverage before the speech, mainly observe. Hawkish positioning in gold, $BNB/$OKB for hedging; dovish landing then follow mainstream and storage sectors accordingly, beware of two-way spikes causing stop losses during the speech. $POPMART Directly support points on Ouyi
Honestly, when I saw Ouyi launch the Pop Mart perpetual contract, I instantly understood—
The crypto world has truly become completely equityized, with no way out at all.
In the past, the crypto world was just the crypto world, and the stock market was the stock market.
We came here to avoid the fundamentals of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, avoid unlocking restrictions, avoid the drag on the overall market, and seek freedom and an independent market.
And now, look at it.
Nvidia, SpaceX, and now even Pop Mart have entered the crypto world to leverage their own hands.
It's so surreal.
A trendy Hong Kong stock market is directly listed on crypto exchanges for 24-hour perpetual trading.
It's like telling everyone:
Everything in the traditional stock market has been transferred into the crypto world.
There will be no more "independent crypto market trends" in the future.
There is no more pure coin speculation.
It's big finance, individual stock sentiment, consumer sectors, and the linkage between Hong Kong and US stocks.
You love Pop Mart's IP popularity, you see consumption recovery, you speculate on individual stock expectations—
All of this can be leveraged in the crypto world.
The last bit of "niche, unique, wild" flavor in the crypto world has completely disappeared.
In the past, it relied on emotions, popularity, and faith.
Now: fundamentals, the overall market, capital flows, and individual stock logic are exactly the same.
To put it bluntly:
After all the twists and turns, we ended up trading stocks at brokerages, just switching to a 24-hour non-sleeping market with even wilder volatility.
This is the current market reality. #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
I'm Brother Ci, the CPI data is out, let's look directly at the numbers.
Overall CPI year-on-year is 2.7%, month-on-month 0.2%. Core CPI year-on-year is 3.1%, month-on-month 0.3%. The market previously expected overall year-on-year at 3.4%, core year-on-year at 2.5%. Overall is below expectations, core is above expectations. Inflation is cooling down, but the stickiness of core inflation is stronger than the market anticipated.
Breaking down this data:
Overall CPI year-on-year is 2.7%, the lowest level since 2021. Month-on-month 0.2% also meets expectations. Core CPI year-on-year is 3.1%, higher than the market expectation of 2.5%, month-on-month 0.3% also higher than the expected 0.2%. The stickiness of core service inflation remains, with housing and medical service prices not falling as quickly as overall inflation.
Oil prices have fallen from the July high to around $80, which clearly drags down overall CPI. But the stickiness of core service inflation mainly comes from housing costs and wage growth, two variables insensitive to interest rates, so rate cuts cannot suppress them. Non-farm data has confirmed employment is cooling, but core inflation data reminds the market that the cooling speed may not be fast enough.
Impact on BTC:
Overall CPI is below expectations, core CPI is above expectations, directions are opposite, but the overall narrative is moderate. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September will not rise sharply because of this data, as overall inflation is indeed trending down. But the stickiness of core inflation will suppress rate cut expectations, and the market needs more time to wait for easing signals.
BTC is very likely to have a short-term rebound, with 64500 to 65000 as the first target, a breakthrough looking at 65500. But the sustainability of the rebound needs verification; higher core inflation means the Fed will not rush to signal a shift. If core inflation remains high, BTC may be blocked and fall back again in the 65500 to 66000 range.
Operations:
Continue holding long positions at 62288, move The US CPI has just been released: all four key figures met expectations, and the real direction now depends on the market's own choices
This time, the CPI is not "data giving answers," but rather data handing the choice back to the market.
I won't chase the first wave, waiting for the market to chart its own direction
US CPI data for July has just been released:
CPI year-on-year 3.4%, expected 3.4%, previous 3.5%
CPI month-on-month 0.1%, expected 0.1%
Core CPI month-on-month 0.2%, expected 0.2%
Core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, expected 2.5%, previous 2.6%
My judgment is simple: this data did not significantly exceed or fall below expectations, and overall is neutral with a slightly dovish bias. Year-on-year inflation continues to decline slightly, but not enough to push $BTC $ETH or gold $XAU out of the major trend on their own.
So now, the biggest taboo is to chase directly after the first big bullish candlestick or bearish candle. Once the data fully meets expectations, the real value next is the market's own reaction: if BTC can break through and hold steady on volume without additional positive news, it means the funds themselves are strong; Conversely, if such data doesn't move and even surges and then pulls back, then be cautious of selling pressure above.
I'm now focusing on how the first 5-minute candlestick after 20:35 closes, and whether there will be a breakout with increased volume, pullback after breakout, or abnormal insertion of needles. Gold also focuses on the combination of the US dollar and US Treasury yields.
This time, the CPI is not "data giving answers," but rather data handing the choice back to the market.
I won't chase the first wave, waiting for the market to chart its own direction.The main reason for the recent rise of SPCX (Nasdaq ticker) is a multiple resonance of "unlocked-up unsold shares + short covering + earnings growth narrative + analyst upward revisions," rather than a simple fundamental abrupt shift.
1. The first batch of large-scale restricted shares was unlocked (around August 6), with no expected selling pressure (the core catalyst).
• Approximately 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked, with a significant increase in free float (expanding from around 4-5%).
• The market had previously widely expected a "hundred-billion-level selling pressure" to drive sell-offs, and the stock price had already plunged ahead of time to absorb the negative news before the lock-up was lifted (it once dropped to a low near $105).
• On the day of the unlocking and subsequent trading sessions, insiders and early investors did not concentrate on heavy selling; instead, the market interpreted this as an "internal confidence signal." As a result, the stock price rose instead of falling, forming a typical "negative news exhausted" rebound.
2. High short ratio triggered coverage (short-term amplifier)
• Before the lock-up, the short position ratio once reached over 30%-36% of tradable shares (data from S3 Partners and others), which is extremely high.
• Once the stock price starts to rise, bears are forced to close their positions and buy, forming a self-reinforcing short squeeze.
• On August 7, the stock surged nearly 16% in a single day, and after the lock-up was lifted, it rose about 23% in total, with market value rebounding sharply. Options trading volume also hit a record (with a high proportion of call options), further amplifying volatility.
3. Strong Q2 earnings growth offset concerns over high capital expenditures
• Revenue was approximately $7.81 billion (+92% year-on-year), significantly exceeding expectations; Adjusted EBITDA was strong; Net loss narrowed.
• Starlink users and orders continue to grow, with AI-related revenue (computing power/cloud services, etc.) exploding in growth.
• The market initially worried about cash flow due to high Capex (especially huge investments in AI infrastructure), which led to brief pressure after the earnings report, but then shifted focus back to "growth stories + long-term AI/space narratives."
4. Analysts raise their price and share other positive factors
• Argus Research upgraded its rating from "Hold" to "Buy," believing that AI infrastructure investments are beginning to show rapid returns.
• Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and others maintain or raise their target prices (some have set higher long-term targets).
• At the same time, news about the Terafab chip factory (related to Tesla and a major project in Texas) reinforced the integrated narrative of "space + communications + AI infrastructure."
Background Supplement (Logic behind the initial IPO surge)
After listing on June 12, 2026, SPCX surged from the issue price of $135 to the $220+ range in a short period due to extremely low float (about 4% at first) + retail investor FOMO + Musk narrative + rapid index inclusion expectations + options gamma squeeze expectations. Subsequently, due to high valuation, unlocking expectations, and earnings concerns, it pulled back sharply, but this recent wave has seen a strong rebound from a low point.
Summary: This rally is a typical case of "expectation disparity trading"—everyone thought the unlock + high Capex = a certain drop, but the unlock didn't sell, the bears were squeezed, and growth data supported the narrative. Short-term volatility is extremely high; further attention remains on more unlocking batches, actual selling pressure, AI investment returns, and Starship commercialization progress. The stock price has clearly rebounded from the low point and is close to/back near the IPO price area, but still well below the previous high.
$SPCX It's late at night, and I've compiled some quick reports:
Tonight is quite a bit informative, so I'll thread a few threads together
Good evening, brothers. Tonight's news is a bit dense, so let's pick a few key points to sort out. CPI implementation, CLARITY delay, SEC taking action themselves, AI infrastructure earnings report exploding, gold surging to 4400—every single order could be discussed for half a day, and it's even more interesting to link them together.
CPI Landing, Probability of a Rate Hike in September Drops to 44%
Let's start with the most important part. The US July CPI data is out tonight: overall CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, month-on-month 0.1%, and core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, all in line with expectations.
After the data was released, CME FedWatch showed that the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose to 55.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike dropped to 44.1%.
Rate hike expectations have cooled down, but haven't been completely ruled out yet. A 44% chance of a rate hike means there's still room for debate before the September FOMC. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs chief economist Hazus directly said the Fed won't raise rates in 2026, but traders are still betting on 44%. Institutions and economists have already sided with 'no rate hikes,' while the market is still hesitating.
The CLARITY Act was postponed, and the SEC took action itself
Another noteworthy event is that the Senate vote on the CLARITY bill has officially been pushed to September. On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 has dropped from over 70% at the beginning of the year to 17%.
But the SEC is not idle. On Friday, August 14, at 10 a.m., the SEC will hold a public meeting to review a new regulation called "Regulation Crypto Assets." This is the SEC's first formal rule-making process for crypto assets.
Simply put: there's no movement from Congress, so the SEC steps in on its own. Whether this is good or bad for the crypto market is still hard to say, but at least it shows regulators are still pushing forward.
AI infrastructure financial reports explode, reaffirming the logic behind storage chips
CoreWeave's Q2 revenue was $2.58 billion, up 112% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. After hours, it surged 15%-16%. With orders surpassing $100 billion, the company also raised its full-year revenue forecast.
AI computing power demand is still surging. AI needs computing power→ computing power needs servers→ servers need storage chips—this chain is still ongoing.
Gold surged to 4400, with safe-haven sentiment still lingering
Gold has twice surpassed $4,400 in the past two days, hitting a new high since June. Both institutional funds and central banks are buying. Gold's continued strength at least indicates one thing—concerns about inflation and geopolitical issues persist.
Let's look at the four lines strung together
CPI meets expectations → rate hike probability drops to 44% → risk assets are taking a short-term breather. CLARITY delay → regulatory uncertainty remains → SEC meeting Friday is the next window to watch. Gold surges to 4400 → risk aversion remains strong. AI infrastructure earnings report beats expectations → Storage chip demand logic remains intact.
Longs and bears are intertwined, and the direction isn't completely unified. Control your position well, don't bet on one-sided.
Brothers, which of these topics are you most interested in tonight? Let's talk in the comments. 👇 #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession. #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets is heating up $BTC Russia's line is underestimated
Russia is rumored to allow BTC, ETH, and USDT to be traded on legitimate exchanges. In the sanctions environment, they need a non-US channel, which is a very strong logic. It's just rumors now, it's still early to implement, but if the direction is right, it's more important than a single day's price swings. I treat this as a long-term variable, no rush for a day. Are you focusing on geopolitical pricing of BTC?Guys, I've opened too many times again. The nonfarm payroll data for May and June has been significantly revised downward.
To put it simply, the actual situation of U.S. employment in May and June is somewhat worse.
In May, nonfarm payrolls were revised down from 172,000 to 129,000, a 25% decrease.
In June, nonfarm payrolls were revised down from 57,000 to 20,000, a 65% reduction.
In July, nonfarm payrolls were -23,000.
The Fed may not raise rates before the midterm elections or even until the end of the year.
Bee's theory is that the Department of Labor was working hard to cooperate with Trump's midterm elections, causing a large discrepancy in nonfarm payroll data early on.
As the midterm elections approach, further downward revisions to the data create an environment and atmosphere for the Fed to avoid raising interest rates, or even cut rates.
Of course, this is just a 'pubic hair' theory, without any evidence. People just treat it as Brother Bee telling stories, grabbing attention, and trying to attract traffic.
However, it is true that employment data has been significantly revised downward, and the downward trend in U.S. employment is also a fact.
On July 30, Bee's post mentioned that Visa, Uber, ServiceNow, Disney, and Patreon have all clearly announced upcoming layoffs......Today, the CPI was implemented
CPI came out today, the market breathed a sigh of relief, but BTC still hovered around 63,000. Interestingly, in September, traders raised the probability of the Fed holding steady to 60%. What does this mean? Inflation hasn't exploded, but it's not completely cold either; rate cut expectations have been pushed back. BTC is an asset that depends on liquidity expectations the most; it keeps grinding before the boots are even hit. How did you handle this wave of data today?I stopped my loss, you’re awesome, dog whale $SNDK
Just clicked to close the position, my hands are a bit shaky. The short position with an average price of 1227 held up to 1380, a full 150 points, 10x leverage, floating loss rolled from -45% to almost liquidation. In the end, I still couldn’t hold on.
---
Reviewing the trade
The price kept breaking through MA5, MA10, MA20, all moving averages diverging upwards, the bullish arrangement was clear at a glance. Intraday it touched 1388.60, with 73% buy orders vs 27% sell orders on the order book, and the funding rate was ridiculously negative—all signals were saying "don’t short anymore," but I was still hoping for a pullback.
Stop loss was set above 1388, and the moment the price triggered it, I actually felt relieved.
---
Lesson
Holding a losing position is a disease that needs curing.
From 1227 to 1380, there were countless chances to exit with a small loss, each time telling myself "hold a bit longer, the pullback is coming soon." What happened? No pullback came, only bigger losses.
Stop loss isn’t losing money, it’s paying for a lesson. Whether this tuition was worth it depends on if I can remember it going forward.
---
Dog whale, you won this round, see you next round.
$BTC $ETH
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 Why is it difficult for BTC to break out into an independent trend after the CPI release?
Many traders expect the crypto market to develop an independent trend separate from the US stock market after the CPI data is released, but this is currently very challenging.
The current market capital structure dictates that incremental funds in the crypto space heavily depend on the risk appetite of the US tech sector. As long as the Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors continue to fluctuate, BTC and ETH will find it hard to sustain a persistent one-sided rally.
Another easily overlooked signal: during this round of fluctuations, the BTC/ETH ratio remains high. This means the mainstream capital view still treats Bitcoin as a defensive base holding, only allocating small positions in Ethereum to speculate on its volatility. Under this capital structure, it is difficult for ETH to consistently outperform BTC in a strong trend.
Simple position review:
$BTC 63800 is the first support, 64500 is short-term strong resistance; repeated pressure will continue to grind the range;
$ETH 1890 support, 1940 resistance; to open upward space, a volume breakout above resistance is necessary.
Risk reminder: volatility will increase during the data window, so contract leverage should be reduced first. Frequent spikes in the choppy market make heavy positions prone to being repeatedly stopped out. Despite BTC rising, a mixed trend is seen with individual altcoins sharply falling in parallel. Is the market truly absorbing selling pressure, or has localized position liquidation begun? According to the original text, BTC fell 0.48% to $63,666, ETH rose 0.48% to $1,882, and SOL increased 0.49% to $76.39. DOGE rose 3.78%, XRP 0.89%, and OKB 0.22%, maintaining strength. Conversely, BICO plunged 7.03%, ACE 13.75%, DUCK 19.93%, CARDS 5.44%, and SPURS 1.77%, showing extreme divergence in individual asset returns. On the surface, the market did not decline together. DOGE, SOL, XRP, SLX, PEOPLE, PENGUSDT, and others held gains, which can be interpreted as capital not fully exiting the crypto market but rather profit-taking occurring in recently surged assets, with reallocations toward relatively less-risen assets or specific themes. However, the extent of decline in some altcoin assets... With the CPI final figure, the market has officially entered the 'expectations vacuum period'
The US July CPI data perfectly matched market expectations, with no unexpected surprises or severe inflation scares.
Many mistakenly believe that a one-sided rally will start as soon as the data is released, but they overlook a key point: once the biggest macro suspense disappears, the market shifts from "trading expectations" to "verifying the sustainability of funds."
History repeatedly shows: a neutral CPI environment makes it difficult to generate sustained large-scale rallies. Liquidity expectations are stable, downside space is sealed, but lacking incremental positive momentum to drive large-scale capital attacks, the market naturally tends to fluctuate within a range.
Looking at the market map, the divergence between $BTC and $ETH continues to emerge. In the short term, ETH has the advantage in elasticity, but remember, high elasticity is a double-edged sword; Once bullish funds weaken, the pullback will also be greater than Bitcoin's.
Additionally, capital attention is quietly shifting, with sentiment at the US stock market opening becoming a new anchor point tonight. The memory chip sector is experiencing multiple news catalysts, with sharp divergences between bulls and bears. Stocks like SNDK and MU are news-driven recovery, so do not mistake short-term sentiment rebounds for trend reversals.
Trading Insights: The biggest taboo in a volatile market is chasing gains and selling losses; pulse rallies are mostly short-term capital games. Patiently wait for key support levels before acting.US July CPI Brief Review | Inflation remains sticky, and rate cut expectations continue to be in contention 📊
[Core Data]
✅ Overall CPI year-on-year was 3.4% (previous 3.5%), month-on-month +0.1%
✅ Core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year (previous 2.6%), month-on-month +0.2%
Inflation has edged down, but core values remain strong month-on-month, still falling short of the Fed's 2% target.
🔍 Driver teardown
▪️ Energy prices are declining, continuing to drag down overall inflation readings
▪️ Food inflation remains moderate
▪️ Housing rents remain the biggest drag, with a slow pace of decline and strong sticky inflation
▪️ Server-side wage resilience remains, and inflation is unlikely to decline quickly
💡 Market analysis
This data basically meets expectations, further lowering the probability of an immediate rate cut in September.
It would take several consecutive months of weakening core CPI month-on-month for the real rate cut window to open.
📈 Assets have a simple logic
▪️ Stubborn inflation → delayed rate cuts have made US dollar and US Treasury yields likely to strengthen, weighing on gold and growth assets
▪️ Inflation continues to cool→ expectations for rate cuts return, which is positive for risk assets and gold
⚠️ Risk Points: Middle East tensions can disrupt oil prices and could rebound at any time to drive up inflation.
👉 Key focus going forward: core CPI month-on-month, housing rent, crude oil prices, and PCE prices.
The above is only a macro logical exchange and does not constitute any investment adviceBTC multiples get worse with each round, but certainty is worth a fortune.
2011: 3 million times
2013: 580 times
2017: 130 times
2021: 22 times
2025: 8 times
Entering at 60,000 yuan only doubles at the previous high, so the room for imagination is indeed limited. If it really drops to 40,000, the previous price is three times higher, and the lead is four times higher, then the fish body is enough to eat.
But don't forget: knockoffs will be wiped out, exchanges will run away, MEME will hit zero overnight, $ICP dropped from 700 to 2 dollars.
$BTC From $32 to $126,000, fourteen years—every bear market washes through, and the next round hits new highs.
The multiplier is low because it has turned from a lottery ticket into an asset.
Institutions treat it as digital gold—not relying on multipliers to survive, but not dying on it.
Criticizing it for having low multipliers is right. Saying it lacks certainty is foolish.
My strategy: Don't crash to over 40,000, not move an inch.
If the price really hits, just go all-in with your eyes closed. $OKB Keep a reserve position, and the knockoff will use some spare money to short-sell and play around.
It's this kind of drive—at worst, you just miss your mark.
Do you think I'll miss out? 😂
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#新手必看: Everything you need is here
#特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大, BTC holdings declined Evening Plan:
Macro CPI data was delivered as scheduled, and after the positive news materialized, the market quickly shifted to a "buy expectation, sell facts" trend. BTC encountered strong selling pressure near the 64,500 range; after bulls failed to surge, bears quickly took over the market, causing the price to plunge from the high volume down to around 63,300, with a one-way correction of over 1,100 points. Although the current market is attempting a pullback near 63,500, the rebound is strong and there is insufficient follow-up capital, resulting in a very weak sideways recovery.
On the 1-hour level, the MACD maintained a death cross with widening downward openings, the green bars (bearish momentum) continued to increase in volume, and the RSI has entered a weak range with no signs of stopping or slowing downward. The risk of inertia downward remains.
The short-term candlestick pattern shows a bearish downward trend, constrained by the dynamic resistance of the MA5 and MA10, and has now broken through several short-term moving averages. The moving average system has turned at a high level and diverged downward, forming a bearish alignment. The rebound at 64,500 was followed by significant volume growth, confirming this level as a recent strong top.
The first support below is the psychological level at 63,000; if it breaks down, the downside space will open, with retracement targets looking toward the 62,500 area; Resistance above is concentrated in the 63,800 - 64,000 turnover band.
Given the overall bear-dominated structure remains unchanged, short-term strategies mainly follow the trend and sell on rallies:
Reference range: Rebound to the 63,800 - 64,000 area to look for pressure signals and short selling in batches.
Risk Control Defense: Defend above 64200.
Downside target: Aim for a break below 63,000; if volume rises and it breaks below, further downside may reach 62,500.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains #特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大, and BTC holdings have dropped by $BTC $ETH [Pharaoh Market Watch]
Pharaoh bluntly said Strategy is selling coins again, this time with 1,690 tokens, marking its third consecutive week of selling. The once "never sell" myth is now completely over.
Let's first look at the specific numbers for this week. In the week of August 10, Strategy sold 1,690 BTC at an average price of $64,262, cashing out $109 million. Over six weeks, it sold a total of 6,916 BTC, cashing out $429 million. But selling coins was at a loss: the average holding cost was $75,385, the selling price was $64,262, resulting in a single loss of about $18.8 million.
Where did the money go? It was all spent on repurchasing STRC preferred shares. Meanwhile, Strategy is raising funds by issuing additional common shares, and as of August 9, its cash reserves have piled up to $4.65 billion.
Selling coins on one hand, issuing additional shares on the other, hoarding cash on the other—doing all three things at once. Would you say this is faith, or is it just settling accounts?
In the corporate treasury track, the mindset has completely diverged.
On the Strategy side, unable to withstand the pressure from preferred stock dividends, it is selling at a loss. On the other hand, Strive increased its holdings by 6,236 BTC in Q2, with cumulative holdings surpassing 20,000. Bitmine is also continuously increasing its ETH holdings, staking nearly 4.9 million ETH, with an expected annualized staking income of about $247 million.
One is selling, two are buying. Corporate treasuries have shifted from a one-way narrative of "buy only, not sell" to a diversified pattern of increasing holdings, selling, buybacks, and hoarding cash.
When the "Bitcoin central bank" starts treating coins like ATMs, this once most important demand engine is stalling. But differentiation itself is creating new opportunities; buying has not disappeared, only players have changed. Pharaoh still says: good orders are made by waiting. Whales are rebalancing; whether you follow the crowd or wait for an opportunity, you choose. $ETH $BEAT $SOL #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate treasuries are diverging The Russian central bank quietly opened a door but only opened its doors to BTC, ETH, and USDT. Do you know what that means? The main background of this new rule is: non-qualified investors can spend up to 300,000 rubles (just over $3,000) per year to buy crypto assets, and they can only touch three things—Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether. The threshold is not high, but the signal is clear: Russia is giving crypto assets a "legal but limited" position. I stared at this news for a while, and my first reaction wasn't "Russians can finally buy coins," but rather: this is actually a structural confirmation of sector strength. - Russia's coin selection logic: large market cap, long pricing history—this is basically the exclusive label for BTC and ETH - altcoins are completely excluded, even Solana and BNB are not on the list - USDT included shows regulators focus on stablecoins' "channel value" rather than speculative value From the perspective of sector rotation, this conveys a subtle preference: even if a window is opened in emerging markets, regulators still choose "blue-chip assets." This is highly consistent with the choices made by European and American institutional funds over the past two years—big money wants certainty, not flexibility. For BTC, this is yet another "national-level" default endorsement. Even a small 300,000 ruble scale reinforces a narrative: Bitcoin is transforming from a marginal asset into a "regulatory-acceptable reserve asset." ETH is similar, singled out,The Hormuz incident seems more and more like a double act.
Tonight, Trump made another bold claim, saying the U.S. has "complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz, calling the blockade a "wall of steel," and mocking Iran for having no navy or air force.
Just a few days ago, it was "close to reaching an agreement," U.S. officials claimed it would be signed "soon," and Trump himself said "overall progress is good." And what was the result? Iran's foreign minister directly contradicted him—we only negotiated with Oman, with no negotiations with the U.S. Isn't that awkward?
The current situation is as follows: Iran and Oman are indeed close to reaching an agreement on the technical level. The coordinates for the new shipping route have been set, and ships entering the Persian Gulf will go through Iran-controlled waters, while those leaving will go through Omani. But Iran is very strict: a successful sea route agreement does not mean the straits are open. If the U.S. does not lift the blockade, pay compensation, or meet the conditions, the strait will remain closed.
Even more outrageous, on the 11th, the US military took direct action in the Gulf of Oman—an MH-60 helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles at the Panamani-flagged cargo ship 'Villa Nova' heading to an Iranian port, damaging the steering system and leaving the ship completely paralyzed at sea. The US military said the ship 'ignored warnings and tried to break through the blockade.' This was already the third time since the blockade was reinstated in mid-July, having previously forced 55 ships to change course. Saying they were negotiating while launching missile attacks—what kind of negotiation is that?
Ultimately, both sides are dragging things out. Iran holds 20% of the world's oil shipping lanes; if it closes the market, oil prices will fluctuate for a day—it's not in a hurry; The U.S. wants to solve the problem without appearing to make concessions, so it is pressuring while hinting that it is "almost done." August 18 is the deadline for the previous 60-day memorandum of understanding, and in the coming days, various rumors are likely to fly around.
The impact on the market is very direct: as long as the strait is closed, oil and gold prices will have support for that day. $BZ Brent crude closed at 88.9 yesterday, touched 90 intraday, and the July wave also dipped to just over 100. Gold broke above 4400 today, and that's the logic. But you have to note, this kind of geopolitical market comes and goes quickly. If it were suddenly announced one day, crude oil and gold would plunge in minutes.
Speaking of risk avoidance, we have to mention the crypto world. Every time geopolitical tensions flare, people shout "BTC is digital gold," but what happened? $XAU Gold hit a new high of 4400. $BTC is still hovering above 63,000, more than halved from last year's high of 126,000. Even die-hard Strategy fans can't hold it anymore; last month they dumped 1,690 BTC to buy back their own shares, and their belief in hoarding coins is worthless against the stock price. As for ETFs, it's even worse. BlackRock's inflows are like a roller coaster. In the first week of August, it finally had a net inflow of 800 million, but this week it started to flow out again. To put it bluntly, the crypto world is now a battle of stock—the more chaotic the situation, the less capital dares to come in. $BTC it falls or falls, just like lottery lottery inflows. Is it safe to avoid risk? Avoid the hammer. When capital really needs to hedge risk, they still recognize the golden gold and the pitch-black crude oil, not the numbers on your chain. So-called "digital gold" is called narrative when it rises, and accidents when it falls.
So at this point, those chasing long crude oil and gold should be cautious, and those shorting should be even more cautious. In the crypto world, don't even think about relying on geopolitical news to pump the market; this wave of funds isn't flowing there at all. This kind of market is like a meat grinder, sweeping stop-losses from both sides.
My personal view: it's highly unlikely they can sign before August 18, but negotiations won't completely fall apart either, and they'll just hang on like this. Both sides need this 'negotiation without breaking down' attitude; if things really fall out, it benefits no one.
What do you think? Will the results be available before the 18th?
#霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, pressure from the US and Iran escalates There's an interesting detail in today's market.
I just glanced at the US stock market, and honestly, it's quite interesting.
The S&P rose about 0.2%, QQQ was roughly the same, and the 10-year yield dropped from 4.70% to around 4.64%—looks like a pretty normal "rate decline, tech rebound" scenario, right?
But if you only focus on the indexes, you'll miss what's really important.
There are only two really strong stocks: CoreWeave surged nearly 19% at one point, and SMCI about 14%. And they didn't give much back after the open, which is a key detail. Typical AI concept rebounds usually spike at the open then slowly fade, but these two clearly aren't following that pattern today.
What does this mean? The market is rewarding companies that deliver real value.
CoreWeave has an order backlog close to $100 billion—think about that number. Revenue exceeded expectations, losses are narrowing, and the market recognizes this. But honestly, I've always been conflicted about this kind of stock—it's really strong, but would you dare hold it overnight?
Its issues are obvious: capital expenditures are frighteningly high, financing costs are there, customer concentration is high, and free cash flow has been negative for years. You can argue it’s worth this price, and the logic holds; or say it’s not, and you can find ten reasons why.
So my trading approach is simple: if it pulls back to VWAP with volume, consider it; if it breaks below VWAP and bounces without volume, don’t follow. Don’t chase the second sharp rally—that’s a lesson learned, not analysis.
SMCI’s logic is a bit different.
The market isn’t buying revenue this time—honestly, expectations for servers are already maxed out—the key is margin improvement. But if you look at last quarter’s cash flow, operating cash flow was negative $6.6 billion in a single quarter; that hole is no joke.
So it’s rising, but I still have that question mark: how much inventory is being pushed down? Can the margin improvement last?
Same trading discipline: wait for the first pullback. If it falls back into the opening range and is weaker than QQQ, that’s just filling the earnings gap, not a trend start—don’t overthink it.
In the next few hours, watch three things:
First, can CRWV and SMCI hold their morning highs? More importantly, do semiconductor, server, and power supply sectors have any followers? So far today, the diffusion effect is weak; VRT and others barely moved.
Second, can QQQ stand on its own as yields fall? If it’s just propped up by two stocks, the quality of this rebound is discounted.
Third, can the 10-year yield hold at 4.64%? Honestly, if it jumps back above 4.70% before tomorrow’s PPI release, all these gains will be given back.
CPI today didn’t cause any surprises, so the market breathed a sigh of relief, but that’s all it is. AI computing demand was confirmed again by earnings—that’s real; but the indexes are just so-so, no one is repricing all AI assets just because of CRWV.
The market is becoming very selective, and I think that’s a good thing.
About tomorrow’s PPI.
I’ve fallen into this trap before—CPI looks good, so you expect PPI to be good too, but when the data comes out differently, your positions from the night before get crushed. So no matter what happens today, I probably won’t hold overnight positions.
Remember this: today the market rewards what’s "proven," not what’s "possible." These are two completely different narratives.
Some friends asked if I’m optimistic about CRWV’s future. Honestly, with such high capital expenditure and leverage, I can’t confidently say it’s a long-term hold. If short-term momentum is there, trade by short-term rules; don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re value investing.
The easiest way to lose money in this market is not not knowing who’s strong, but chasing the strong stocks too high, then finding no volume and getting stuck at the peak.
Sentiment is good today, but not good enough to blindly charge in.
Wait for pullbacks, watch volume, set stop losses. #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ BTCFi Cool is a hot topic online! Is there a need for excessive panic with one less validator node?
⚠️ Risk Warning: This is for industry opinion exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. Please view market fluctuations rationally.
Recently, the community has been actively discussing the reduction of one active validator node in CORE, with many investors worried about declining cybersecurity and decentralization. Combined with Satoshi Plus's unique consensus mechanism, we objectively break down the truth for everyone, so there's no need for blind panic.
First, clarify the core concept: full node ≠ verification node.
Ordinary full nodes can be set up by anyone, only synchronizing data; Validator nodes require high staking and ranking campaigns, responsible for block production and consensus packaging. CORE nodes rotate periodically, with rankings changing each cycle; individual node exit is a normal fluctuation on the public chain.
This reduction in single nodes is most likely due to node operators voluntarily exiting due to matching revenue and operation and maintenance costs.
The public chain mechanism comes with a built-in waitlist system; vacant seats are filled by nodes ranked lower, which do not affect normal network functions such as block production, transfers, or staking, and do not pose any cybersecurity risks.
Key point: CORE's security base is completely different from ordinary POS public chains!
It relies on BTC hash power delegation + CORE dual staking, creating a dual security barrier.
Even if a small number of validator nodes exit, the security of the underlying Bitcoin hashrate remains solid, with no single points of failure or decentralized collapse.
What truly needs to be watched out is not "one less node," but continuous mass node withdrawals and long-term unmanned replacements. Currently, only single individual fluctuations are normal ecosystem survival of the fittest.
On the market front, short-term momentum is likely to be amplified by bears to trigger panic sell-offs, but single-node changes do not alter fundamentals.
CORE's medium- to long-term core logic remains: BTCFi ecosystem deployment, COREATM progress, on-chain TVL growth, institutional ecosystem expansion.
Summary
A single validator node exit at once is considered a normal ecosystem iteration, so there is no need for excessive anxiety.
Key future observations: the speed of replacement replacement for alternate nodes, and whether there is a batch of node withdrawals.
At this stage, it's emotional turbulence, not fundamental bearishness. Focus on the core narrative and ignore short-term noise.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets is heating up When I first started my account in 2019, I traded Martin. I opened a fivefold trade, opened a portion, and added an equal long position at the liquidation price level. If I spent, I just took the profit, the average opening price dropped, and the position doubled. Then I placed an equal long position at the liquidation price level, and at that point, I went all in. I was lucky then, and during the one-sided uptrend, I held the position. I did nearly a hundred times, and at most my account was worth 12.8 BTC, which was over 90,000 dollars. But I lost because I was holding positions. Although my leverage lowered later, I couldn't resist the heavy investment and didn't have time to invest, so I lost everything. Right now, I haven't confirmed the bottom. If the bottom is confirmed, opening trades becomes easier. Even if you do a big trend of doubling on a large pie, using triple for rolling positions can yield more than ten times.🔥 THE MARKET ISN’T PUMPING EVERYTHING — IT’S CHOOSING WHAT DESERVES LIQUIDITY.
And that’s the part most traders are missing right now. 👀
$BTC is still the boss.
Holding around $64K without a major breakdown tells me one thing: risk appetite hasn’t disappeared. There’s no panic, no aggressive sell-off, and liquidity is still flowing.
But look at the alts…
$ETH and $SOL are moving, but this isn’t an “everything goes up” market. It’s selective rotation.
Here’s how I see the battlefield:
🥇 TIER 1 — LIQUIDITY MAGNETS
$BTC $ETH $SOL
These usually move first.
They tell us whether traders are willing to take more risk.
🥈 TIER 2 — ROTATION TARGETS
L1s: $SUI $APT $AVAX $TIA $INJ
DeFi: $AAVE $PENDLE $JUP $MORPHO $ENA
AI/DePIN: $TAO $RENDER $GRASS $IO $WLD
RWA: $ONDO $LINK $PYTH
These are where liquidity can rotate IF Tier 1 stays strong.
🎰 TIER 3 — THE CASINO
$PE $BONK $WIF $MOG $FLOKI
Fast money. Fast exits.
Momentum can be explosive, but don’t confuse a meme pump with a healthy market.
And then there’s the elephant in the room:
CPI + the Fed still control the bigger picture.
Add the gold haven bid and Hormuz-related pressure, and macro risk is still very much alive.
So I’m watching two levels closely:
📈 $64,200 reclaimed with strong volume → Tier 2 could accelerate.
📉 $63,200 lost → defensive mode comes back, and rotation could disappear quickly.
Don’t trade the story. Trade the structure. Trade the levels.
The market doesn’t owe us a pump.
It only gives us clues.
Which tier are you positioned in right now? 👇
Not financial advice. Just my read on the market structure.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Solana #Crypto #Altcoins #DeFi #AI #RWA #CPI #FED #Trading #MarketStructure
#DailyOrbit #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
I've been closely monitoring the data for the past two months. July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, 0.1% month-on-month, and core CPI 0.2% month-on-month. All indicators met expectations, with no surprises or surprises.
The nonfarm payrolls just turned negative, hourly wages are frozen, oil prices have fallen, and with this "lukewarm" CPI, most of Walsh's confidence in raising rates in September has been taken away. FedWatch's rate hike probability has dropped from a 50-50 split to 42%–45%, with more than half the probability of holding steady.
But let me tell you everything: this is in line with expectations≠ rate hikes are out. Inflation is still far from the 2% target, and a core 0.2% month-on-month growth shows that service stickiness is still there, and the tail end of Middle Eastern energy is still ongoing. Before September, there are August CPI and core PCE; as long as that session is hot, the rate hike narrative could revive at any time.
Most likely, "no movement in September," keeping a rope for August data—surviving will lead to the next game.
$BTC
$ETH The market caption is just one word: Wait! CPI meets expectations, but a neutral market hides divergences
This CPI of 3.4% fully matched market expectations, with neither significant easing nor severe inflation negatives. The macro market entered a vacuum period, and the day's fluctuations were all shakeout and deception.
ETF funds expose the real logic behind institutional portfolio adjustments: $BTC saw a net outflow of 265 coins in a single day, with capital taking short-term profits on positive news, but a seven-day net inflow of $301 million, with long-term bottom positions not withdrawn; In contrast, ETH attracted funds on both sides throughout the day, with $7.28 million in inflow and a seven-day cumulative $171 million. Institutions continue to focus on its long-term DeFi and RWA narratives, demonstrating significant structural advantages.
On the market, $BTC is stuck between 63,000 and 64,000, with no volume and no breakthrough; $ETH relying on capital to support the bottom is more resilient, with the 1900 level being the key watershed for bulls. $SOL slightly strong is only suitable for light positions and short-term trading; small-cap altcoins lack incremental capital, so a rebound is the right time to exit.
The data implementation is a typical example of "buying expectations and selling facts," with early gambling funds cashing out and exiting, so there is no short-term one-sided large rally. Inflation has not yet reached the target, and hawkish official statements could constantly suppress the market, with risks of two-way insertion persistently high.
Remember: Stay on the sidelines and don't open new positions; $BTC don't chase long positions, $ETH wait for stabilization before relocating, and be sure to reduce leverage in futures to avoid sharp losses. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains
⚠️ Market review is only and does not constitute investment advice#SPCX SpaceX is undergoing a shift in its business foundation. Musk clearly stated in an internal meeting that AI revenue could surpass the combined revenue of all other businesses such as rocket launches, Starlink, and Dragon spacecraft as early as September, with AI becoming the core narrative of the company's growth.
Originally rocket-building aerospace companies, they are now investing large amounts of financing into the AI sector. AI business revenue growth is impressive, but the cost of computing infrastructure is huge. Even with rapid revenue expansion, the sector is still operating at a loss. The structure of capital expenditure has clearly changed, with AI taking up the vast majority of capital investment, and the proportion of capital in traditional aerospace business has relatively declined.
The aerospace sector has yet to escape the loss quagmire, with Starship R&D continuing to burn money. In Q2, the space segment posted an operating loss of about $540 million, with a large portion of the funds coming from investors.
This led to market fragmentation: bulls bet on the AI revenue explosion leading to valuation revaluation; Bears worry about endless capital consumption. Starship launch progress combined with the upcoming share lock-up further amplifies the SPCX long-short divide.
$Many people judge the market solely by whether BTC has hit new highs, but this is a misconception.
A truly complete bull market will have BTC stabilize, ETH strengthen, and altcoins erupting one after another.
The indicator is the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
- Exchange rate steadily rising: funds flow out of Bitcoin, willing to take risks, speculate on alts, and market heat is intensified;
- Exchange rate continues to fall: Funds only dare to hide in BTC for safe havens; there is no incremental growth in altcoins and even if BTC rises, it is a false prosperity.
Looking back at the mid-stages of previous bull markets, ETH/BTC will continue to rise for a long time.
In contrast, every rebound brings Bitcoin up, while altcoins struggle to keep up, resulting in poor market sustainability.
This indicates a lack of incremental funds in the market, with on-exchange funds competing with each other.
Even if BTC makes a rebound, if ETH/BTC doesn't cooperate, the potential is limited, so don't blindly go for knockoffs.
In the crypto world, Bitcoins always determine the fate of the market, while counterfeit assets determine the maximum returns.
As long as the market is alive, counterfeit companies don't necessarily make money; Once the market collapses, counterfeit stocks will suffer a brutal decline $BTC $ETH CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, in line with expectations; After the data release, BTC and ETH experienced sharp fluctuations, resulting in a double blow for both bulls and bears.
Data and market response
- CPI data: July CPI year-on-year was 3.4% (expected 3.4%, previous 3.5%); Core CPI year-on-year was 2.5% (expected 2.5%, previous 2.6%).
- Market Interpretation: Inflation continues to decline slightly, with no "over-the-balance" scenario, which is seen as neutral to positive and reduces the probability of a rate hike in September.
- Rate hike probability: After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September fell from about 51% to a range of 42%–48%.
- BTC trend: After the data release, it quickly dipped to around $64,000, then rebounded, finally closing at around $64,146.
- ETH Trend: After briefly touching 1910, it quickly pulled back, falling below 1900 and hitting a low of around 1880.
- Gold Trend: After a short-term plunge of about $30, it rebounded to about $20.
Why did there be a "double blowout" between bulls and bears?
- Highly consistent expectations: The market generally bets on 3.4%, but after the data release, there is no new direction, and funds quickly reverse their operations.
- Key Position Battle: BTC repeatedly traded between $63,000 and $65,000, with data triggering programmatic and leveraged funds for centralized liquidation.
- Geopolitics and sentiment: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and oil price fluctuations create uncertainty, intensifying the swing between risk aversion and chasing gains.
What should we do next?
- Short term: Easing rate hike expectations and falling US dollar and Treasury yields are more favorable for risk assets.
- Medium-term: Inflation remains above the 2% target, and the high interest rate environment may persist; If employment continues to deteriorate, the market may shift to "recession pricing," which is unfavorable for risk assets.
- Key Points to Watch:
- August 13: US July PPI.
- August 14: U.S. July retail sales.
- Late August: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, focusing on Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's policy statements $BTC $ETH $SOL On CPI night, the bulls staged a classic "front-start-delivery" scenario.
Stockpiling during the day, dumping at night. BTC surged from 63,163 in the morning all the way to 64,466, ETH shot from 1,856 to 1,927—before the data came out, sentiment surged first. But at 8:30, the CPI hit 3.4%, fully in line with expectations—lukewarm, no surprises. The market reversed by "selling the facts," BTC plunged straight to 63,470, wiping out the day's gains almost to zero; ETH retreated to 1892, giving back nearly half.
But there is a detail here that many people overlook.
Tonight's drop is essentially "debt repayment," not a "bearish turn." BTC's current price is 63,470, higher than today's low of 63,163; ETH1892 is $36 higher than the morning session of 1,856. In other words—the CPI gains have been paid off, but the trend bottom hasn't been broken. The momentum of three consecutive days of decline has temporarily stalled here.
The 63163 line hasn't broken yet, so the bears haven't won yet.
Tomorrow night's PPI will be the true touchstone.
· PPI remains moderate→ The logic of cooling inflation is closed. BTC stabilizes in the 63,000~64,500 range, waiting for Jackson Hole to give direction
· PPI rebound → 63,163 is highly unlikely to hold, so bears are increasing their positions
Key points to watch:
· BTC: Resistance above 64,000, lower order at 63,163
· ETH: Support at 1880, rebound threshold at 1900
Tonight was basically a wasted battle—the data gave no direction, and the market didn't pick a side. The original world was shaken, waiting for the next step on the gas.
$BTC $BEAT $ETH
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#黄金站上4400美元, demand for risk avoidance is heating up 🌎 $BTC $ETH The real big boss: macro
Today, the biggest variable is no longer the candlestick chart, but the US inflation data.
After the latest data release, the US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year; BTC briefly retreated from around $64.5K to around $64K after the data release, as the market repriced expectations for the Fed's September policy.
This is the most exciting part of today:
📉 Inflation is higher than expected
→ Interest rate cut expectations cool
→ USD/US Treasury pressure
→ Risk assets under pressure
→ BTC may continue to be hammered
📈 Inflation was lower than expected
→ Rising expectations for rate cuts
→ Improved liquidity expectations
→ BTC gains rebound fuel 🚀
But the current market response is a bit awkward:
The CPI came out, but BTC did not take off immediately.$SNDK $XAU $MU Before the data release, US stocks were falling. The market generally feared that rising oil prices would push up inflation, forcing the Fed to reconsider rate hikes in September. This worry weighed heavily on the market, but after the CPI came out, all four indicators met expectations—no surprises or shocks. The worst scenario didn't happen. The bears ran off first, so the market naturally bounced back. What the market really traded wasn't how good the CPI was, but that nothing bad happened. In this environment, meeting expectations actually became an acceptable signal. But don't rush to call for a bull return The probability of a rate hike in October is still above 50%. Inflationary pressures haven't been fully relieved, and expectations for rate cuts haven't resurfaced. This rebound feels more like a mood recovery, not a trend reversal. Short-term relief, but the direction isn't decided yet. Don't get carried away in the rally. #JulyCPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings debut in succession. #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets is heating up Market Analysis: CPI rose before CPI, then fell back after it — $BTC and $ETH played a game of "buying expectations, selling facts"
Tonight's trend clearly illustrates the phrase "all good news has been exhausted."
During the day, BTC climbed from 63,163 in the early morning to 64,466, up 1,300 points. ETH was even stronger, rising from 1,856 to 1,927, up $71. The market bet early on "soft data" ahead of CPI—the nonfarm payrolls have already been unexpectedly affected, and CPI is likely to cool down, so bulls are maxing out positions ahead of the data.
The data at 8:30 was released, fully in line with expectations. Neither hot nor cold, no surprises. Then the market reversed and sold off. BTC slid from 64,466 all the way to 63,470, giving up all the gains from the day. ETH fell from 1927 to 1892, losing nearly half of its gains.
This is the classic "buy expectations, sell facts." Bulls buy the "possibly below expectations" scenario before CPI, but after the data comes out, that imagination disappears—3.4% is 3.4%, no more, no surprise. The portion that has already risen too much is forfeited by profit-takers.
But don't rush to be bearish. BTC is now at 63,470, still 300 points away from today's early morning low of 63,163, with no new low. ETH1892, $36 higher than the morning's 1,856. In other words—tonight's drop is "making back the CPI gain," not a "breakdown drop." The three-day decline has not worsened at the CPI level.
Structurally, 63,163 remains the bottom line for this round of decline. If it doesn't break through tonight, the bears haven't fully controlled the market yet. Tomorrow night's PPI will be the next confirmation point. If PPI remains moderate, the chain of inflation cooling will be complete, and BTC will most likely stabilize between 63,000 and 64,500
Jackson Hole。 If PPI rebounds, 63,163 will be in danger.
Key levels: 63,163 below BTC is the bottom, and 64,000 above is the resistance level to be breached tonight. 1,880 below ETH is support, and 1,900 above is the level of tonight's decline.
That's it for tonight. CPI didn't set a direction, and the market didn't pick a side, just returned to the original shake.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#黄金站上4400美元, demand for risk avoidance is heating up August 10$ETH Total spot ETF holdings continued to rise to 5,584,887.58 ETH, with a net increase of 1,996.03 ETH for the day. Since this was the first trading day of the new week, the cumulative net increase for the week temporarily stood at 1,996.03 ETH.
This is already a clear difference from last week's capital structure. Last week, the cumulative net increase in ETH ETFs reached 118,764.78 ETH, with four consecutive trading days from August 4 to August 7 increasing holdings by 23,284.69, 27,904.96, 43,872.12, and 29,736.44 ETH respectively. Although net inflows continued on August 10, the scale of 1,996 ETH has cooled significantly.
However, in the past seven trading days, the cumulative net increase was 117,242.81 ETH, showing a clear capital advantage. Since August, total holdings have increased by 120,759.78 ETH, a growth of about 2.21%, still significantly outperforming BTC's 0.84% over the same period.
ETH currently seems more like a slowdown after last week's consecutive large inflows, rather than a reversal in the capital trend. What really needs to be watched is the next few trading days. If the daily net inflow continues to drop from tens of thousands to thousands or even turns negative, it will confirm that this round of strong capital inflows is clearly fading. In the crypto world, Michael Thaler has long been regarded as the number one Bitcoin die-hard fan on the entire internet, and his famous motto, "Never sell your Bitcoin," has become the motto of countless believers.
Under Seller's leadership, MicroCe has spent over 226,500 bitcoins in recent years by issuing bonds and stocks with leverage, becoming the publicly traded company holding the most Bitcoin globally.
However, just recently, WeCe disclosed its latest capital management moves to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, revealing an extremely rare and subtle change: they decided to replenish the company's cash reserves by selling part of their Bitcoin and common shares.
Although Weice claims this is just a normal treasury asset restructuring, it has undoubtedly created a crack in the camp of believers.
The perpetual motion machine flywheel, praised by countless self-media outlets as an infinitely loopable "issuing bonds, buying coins, and leverage," finally hit the ceiling in the face of cold physical laws.
Here, you need to pay attention to the underlying operating logic of the Weice lever flywheel.
Weice's approach is actually very simple—it's called premium issuance arbitrage.
Because MicroCe holds a massive amount of spot assets, its stock MSTR on the secondary market generates a premium relative to the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings.
Saylor uses this premium: whenever stocks rise, he issues bonds and new shares to raise dollars, then immediately buys all the dollars on the secondary market to buy Bitcoin.
Buying Bitcoin in turn stimulates the price to rise, thereby increasing the company's per-share value and attracting more traditional investors to rush to buy shares, creating higher premiums.
This self-fulfilling positive feedback loop has made Weice shine in the unilateral bull market over the past two years.
However, as long as this flywheel wants to keep running, it must rely on two hard conditions: the token price must keep rising, and secondary market investors must be willing to keep paying a high premium.
Once Bitcoin falls into a wide range of volatility—like bottoming out above $60,000 for several consecutive months—the physical limits of this leveraged perpetual motion machine are exposed.
To maintain its massive debt structure, WeCe needs to pay tens of millions of dollars in bond interest and operating costs annually.
When coin prices stagnate and stock premium rates fall, new financing channels are instantly blocked.
If you only go in and never out, the cash in your pocket will eventually be depleted by interest expenses.
Therefore, Weice's decision to sell a small portion of Bitcoin and stocks to raise funds and strengthen the company's financial safety buffer is actually a very rational defensive move.
It proves that in this world, no leverage can be nested infinitely.
Even a seemingly fanatical preacher like Thaler must bow and acknowledge the power of rules when faced with the company's cash flow survival measure.
Personally, I think this strategic adjustment can actually make WeCe more like a "living person."
Previously, MicroStrategy was like a suicide bomb tied to Bitcoin's price engine; once the price collapsed, massive debt liquidations would instantly tear it to pieces.
Now, they are beginning to learn to build cash buffers and use cashing out to smooth out leverage risks.
Although this shatters the myth of absolute faith of 'refusing to sell even if it dies,' it has greatly enhanced Weice's risk resistance during the long financial winter cycle.
A Weice who understands defense is far more reassuring to Wall Street than a Weice who only blindly calls for orders and leverages.
As you watch Weice's strategic shift and cash recovery, do you think Seller's faith is finally cracking and the leveraged flywheel is about to collapse, or do you believe it can survive the next cycle through rational defense?
Anyway, I think rules are cold, cash is king, and even the totem of faith must bow to the balance sheet.
#Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate financial pools are diverging Re (RE) is currently trading around $RE 0.41892, consolidating sideways after a period of downward cooling.
* Moving Averages: The MA5 ($0.41252) and MA10 ($RE 0.40246) are curling upward below the current price, offering immediate support. However, the MA20 ($RE 0.43940) sits above as overhead resistance.
* Key Levels on Chart: RE hit a local low of $0.35720 in late July before rebounding, but it remains well below its recent surge peak of $0.68025.
Historical Ups and Downs
* All-Time Low: RE traded near its historic low around $0.357 – $0.360 during its recent consolidation phase in July.
* All-Time High: RE reached an all-time record peak of $1.08 – $1.09 earlier in its listing history.
* Recent Range: Over the last 30 days, RE has seen a drop of about 20%, but it is up nearly 9% over the past week as buyers attempt a recovery.
Price Predictions
Short-Term Prediction (Next Few Days to Weeks)
* Bullish Scenario: If RE breaks above resistance at the MA20 level near $0.4400, it could test the $0.5000 – $0.5500 zone.
* Bearish Scenario: If the price loses momentum and drops below $0.4000, expect a retest of strong support near $0.3570.
All-Time Long-Term Prediction
If the project expands its on-chain reinsurance ecosystem and gains broader market traction, RE's ultimate long-term peak in a major bull market could reach $1.50 – $2.50+. $CARDS is showing strong momentum.
Structure remains under control.
EP
0.14200 - 0.14450
TP
0.14800
0.15300
0.16000
SL
0.13750
Liquidity is building above the reclaimed reaction zone, with buyers defending structure after the recent expansion. As long as support holds, continuation toward higher liquidity remains the favored scenario.
Let’s go $CARDS友友们，今晚美国7月CPI数据出来了，咱们一起来聊聊这事儿对9月加息的影响，以及对币圈意味着什么。 一、7月CPI到底啥情况？ 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，7月CPI同比上涨3.4%，比上个月的3.5%有所回落，也是3月以来最小增幅。环比来看涨了0.1%，6月可是负的0.4%，这次重回正增长。核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）同比降到2.5%，比上个月的2.6%又低了点。 整体来说，数据完全符合市场预期，没什么意外。 分项来看，住房成本还是通胀的主要推手，贡献了CPI月度涨幅的大概三分之二。能源价格倒是继续往下走，汽油价格环比跌了2.9%。不过机票价格涨得挺猛，环比涨了2.2%。 二、9月到底加不加息？ 这才是大家最关心的。 CPI公布前，市场对9月加息的预期大概在46%左右。数据出来后，加息预期降到了38%-42%。CME的FedWatch工具显示，9月维持利率不变的概率是52%，加息25个基点的概率是48%。 简单说就是：加息和不加息，差不多五五开。 为啥还这么纠结？因为3.4%的通胀还是远高于美联储2%的目标。而且住房成本那个顽固劲儿，加上中东局势的不确定性（霍尔木兹海峡还关着呢），通胀AI行情走到今天，最大的分水岭已经出现： 过去市场交易的是“AI会不会爆发”。 现在市场交易的是： AI资本投入，能不能真正转化成收入和利润。 CoreWeave（CRWV）最新财报给出了一个非常重要的信号： AI算力需求并没有明显降温。 二季度营收达到约25.8亿美元，同比增长112%，同时积压订单规模达到约1040亿美元，管理层表示当前算力产能依然供不应求。 更关键的是： 公司不仅没有放缓资本开支，反而继续扩大扩容计划。 这说明行业最大的担忧—— “AI基础设施投资是否已经接近顶部？” 暂时没有得到验证。 但市场真正关注的，不只是CRWV一家公司的增长。 而是整个AI产业链的传导。 第一受益：HBM高带宽内存 AI训练和推理需求持续提升，本质上需要： 更多GPU 更高带宽内存 更强存储能力。 因此SK海力士、美光等HBM供应链仍然是最直接受益方向。 尤其是在AI服务器需求快速增长的背景下，HBM已经成为整个产业链中最紧缺环节之一。 第二层：AI SSD与存储 这里需要区分。 AI数据中心确实会提升企业级SSD需求，但并不代表所有存储公司都会同步受益。 HBM属于高壁垒、高确定性赛道White just cast a pawn in the center of the board, pointing directly at the H7 pawn—the S&P 500 closed at a record high, and the 8,000-point square was already lined up on the distant horizon. JPMorgan raised its year-end target from 7,800 to 8,000 and revised its 2026-27 profit spectrum upward. This isn't a casual move, but a carefully calculated piece coordination in the middle game: the Q2 earnings report is a solid central pawn, AI investments are beginning to generate real cash flow and revenue, meaning this pawn is no longer a bluff pawn but a channel pawn with potential for upward change. September rate hike pressure Like Black creating a simplified bet exchange in the king's wing, they see it as an exchange opportunity to ease pressure rather than a threat.
But I must warn you, the endgame Curry's data is glaring: Shiller CAPE is over 40 times, a metric like a hidden minefield buried in the middle game. Who among high-ranking players doesn't remember that when valuation exceeds the mean by two standard deviations, the time left on the clock is often more brutal than the position advantage? Tom Lee of Fundstrat also points to 8000, and institutional optimism is everywhere, with almost all players in the hall castling on the same side. This is exactly what I am most wary of—when everyone's plans bet on the same structural forsake, Black's path to counterattack in the middle becomes even clearer.
Can profit growth withstand the fierce barrage of AI capital spending? Is valuation expansion overdrawing the stability of the next twenty steps? The Shadow of Policy Shifts A lone horse hanging on the G7 block, ready to leap into White's rear wing gap at any moment. This is not a simple question — there are never simple questions on the chessboard, only tactical combinations that have not been fully calculated. A true grandmaster never asks "Can it keep rising?" but asks, "After the first wave of attacks fails, does my system still have a second or third set of battle plans to deal with the disconnect between valuation and cash flow?"
JPMorgan's 8000 points is a strong move, with the market responding by breaking through the opening price after the lock. But note, it hits the h7 pawn, not the king—a nice theoretical validation rather than a final round. The 8000 points mark the start of a new game, not the victory of the old one. You can record this move and signal to the referee to move toward a more complex endgame. There, the CAPE starting with 4 acts like a silent elephant, patrolling diagonally over every overpriced chip #sp500eyes8000Bitcoin LTH aNUPL turned negative: entering a bottoming phase, but the final capitulation is not yet complete
As Bitcoin fell -50% from its peak, the Long-Term Holder Adjusted Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (LTH aNUPL) indicator has entered negative territory below the market average.
Long-term holder adjustment NUPL (LTH aNUPL): tracks the unrealized P&L status of long-term investors (LTH) holding coins for more than 155 days, used to assess the financial pressure on long-term funds and the bottoming stage.
Long-term funds enter loss territory: beyond speculative short-term liquidity, even the most confident long-term holders are suffering losses, which fits the pattern of a large cycle bottom
Not reached the "Depression" stage: Unlike past macro bottoms where indicators were deeply negative, it has not yet reached a state of complete emotional and financial exhaustion (surrender).
Two scenarios: either triggering a final capitulation collapse that pushes LTH to extremes, or prematurely completing the bottom through institutional demand absorption, which will be a critical watershed
The market has entered a typical macro bottom structure, but no full signals of capitulation have yet to appear. It is important to watch whether LTH aNUPL rebounds to near zero and raises the lows again.7月CPI落地，美联储9月降息逻辑开始改变
这一次通胀数据没有给市场制造意外，但它透露出的信号，比单纯的降息预期变化更重要
美国7月CPI同比从3.5%回落至3.4%，核心CPI同比从2.6%降至2.5%，整体符合预期。能源价格环比下降1.5%，帮助整体通胀继续降温，但住房成本依然是主要压力来源，占据了当月涨幅的大部分。
从数据来看，美国通胀确实在缓慢下行，但距离美联储理想目标还有距离。尤其是核心服务通胀依然偏高，这也是政策制定者不敢快速转向的原因。
结合此前就业数据变化，7月非农就业人数意外减少2.3万人，同时5月和6月就业数据被大幅下修，经济降温的迹象正在增加。现在的问题已经不是经济有没有压力，而是通胀下降速度能不能给美联储足够信心。
我的看法是，9月降息预期正在升温，但还没有到板上钉钉的阶段。
这份CPI更像是给美联储打开了一扇门，而不是直接按下确认键。后续PPI、就业数据以及核心服务价格表现，都会影响最终决定。
如果未来几个月通胀继续温和回落，同时就业保持降温但没有快速恶化，美联储可能会选择调整政策方向，为经济提供更多支撑。
但如果住房、服务业通胀重新出现反复，那么政策转向节奏仍可能放慢。
对于BTC、美股和黄金来说，真正重要的不是一句“降息来了”，而是资金环境是否进入持续改善阶段。
这轮周期最大的变化，是从过去关注“通胀什么时候结束”，转向观察“经济能不能软着陆”。
7月CPI只是其中一个节点，接下来几个月的数据，才会决定美联储到底是在开启新周期，还是继续保持耐心。
$DOS $KAITO $BTC
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ Taking into account tonight's August nonfarm payroll and CPI outlook for the second half of the year,
On the contrary, I think the most noteworthy thing in the second half of the year isn't "all coins rising at once," but rather:
$BTC → $ETH → Mainstream public chains → AI/RWA/DeFi → Small market cap, high beta
Funds are most likely seeking returns in this order.
First stage: August to September
Core Keywords:
Macro pricing + $BTC absorbing liquidity.
If CPI remains moderate, the labor market keeps weakening, and the Fed does not further strengthen rate hike expectations, BTC may be the first to complete a trend correction.
At this stage, I won't chase small coins excessively.
Second stage: September to October
If ETH can truly rise above the 1960–2000 range, the market may see a clear decline in BTC Dominance + $ETH$BTC recovery.
This is the stage when the knockoff market is truly worth observing.
Especially:
$ETH, $SOL, $TAO, and DeFi/RWA projects with real on-chain activity.
Macro data research also shows that changes in CPI expectations provide certain predictive information for the volatility of assets like $ETH and $SOL, indicating that macro liquidity has a more direct impact on altcoins than many imagine.
Third stage: October to December
If you encounter the following:
Inflation continues to decline + Fed policy is no longer hawkish + ETFs continue to absorb spot + stablecoin supply expansion + $BTC break previous highs
Only then can the market truly enter the so-called Altseason.
Moreover, I am more optimistic about a "structural knockoff season," not the kind of junk coin rally seen in 2021.
In the second half of the year, I will focus on these areas
First tier: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL
They are essentially liquidity anchors for the entire market.
Second tier: $TAO, $LINK, $AAVE, $ONDO
The focus is not on the story, but on whether AI, oracles, DeFi, and RWA sectors have real capital and on-chain demand.
Third tier: high-beta small-cap coins
Previously focused on $BICO, $ZBT, $ALLO, $SENSO, $SCORE, $BSB, $RIVER, etc., can enter the observation pool, but must simultaneously improve trading volume, OI, funding rate, on-chain activity, and coin holding concentration.
Personal views on the situation in the second half of the year:
Volatility is relatively high, with the highest probability.
$BTC is responsible for stabilizing the market; $ETH starts catching up, followed by funds spreading into $SOL, AI, RWA, and DeFi.
Personal opinion and does not constitute any advice.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? The entire industry is watching the reflection of the glass curtain wall when presenting plans; what really needs to be looked at is the geotechnical report on the third basement level. Last week, the $1.1 billion inflow into the US spot market was indeed like a truckload of steel beams steadily delivered by a tower crane—but the supervisory log notes were glaring: on August 10, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 91 million, and this load-bearing side pillar showed early circumferential contraction cracks. The Ethereum ETF barely had a net inflow of 5.3 million, but at best, several meters of fresh air pipes were laid in the duct wells, and even insulation cotton for window sill walls couldn't be gathered, making it impossible to verify the load of the main structure.
The dump trucks on the chain are the real main construction lines. One whale transported 7,513 BTC in three weeks; Another miner whale dumped 6,494 BTC into centralized trading in twenty days. This isn't civilized construction on site; it's earth being continuously excavated and replaced under the cap. No matter how shiny the scaffolding built by ETF funds, it can't stop the foundation's bearing capacity characteristic values from being devalued day by day. If you use the thickness of curtain wall aluminum panels to deduce the safety rating of a steel-concrete core tube, you won't pass the drawing review stage—the load combination can't be counted, renderings can only be used for bidding, not for completion.
The essence of this game is that two structural systems compete for loads on the same site. On one side is the ETF, a prefabricated prestressed beam, which uses financial instruments to pre-attach demand to tower cranes; On the other side, on-chain miners and whales use cast-in-place aggregate, each weighing and being dropped to the floor one by one. Where do you leave the seismic joints? The design institute's standard answer is that the wider the joint, the safer, but the market only gives you one three-centimeter expansion joint. Once the joint is leaked through, the exterior wall stone starts to make strange noises at night.
CPI is the static level next to the tower crane; the moment the reading crosses the warning value, the canopy canopy, glass rib nodes, and temporary diagonal braces all switch to standby mode. When risk appetite is downgraded from design strength to allowable stress, no matter how beautiful the facade depth is, it's just time-lapse photography stored on the rendering company's server.
So don't repeat the mantra "the four-year cycle foundation pit has already bottomed out." Structural engineers know that the data from the water level observation well is not yet stable, and the quicksand has not stopped; any "bottoming" is only the elevation of the temporary enclosure structure. Whether the four red seals for survey, design, construction, and supervision on the foundation trench inspection report can be gathered depends on every drop hammer inspection sold on the chain and the lateral load sampling records every second in the CPI wind tunnel test. The tower crane can be taken out at any time, but the date repeatedly smeared on the rebar rebar sample form will not automatically become a signature column on the completion acceptance filing form #btcethetfflowsdiverge