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CLARITY Extension: SEC Supplements Rule First, but That Doesn't Mean Knockoffs Take Off Everywhere
My view is clear: the SEC's rules come first, which is good for compliance projects, but not a broad rally; instead, it will accelerate market differentiation.
CLARITY has already passed the Senate Banking Committee, and in September, the focus will be on whether the 60-vote process will proceed, not the final implementation. Even if the SEC advances the proposed rule, it will only initiate a public comment session, not mean the rule will take effect immediately.
The real key is not the phrase "safe harbor," but rather the following:
(1) Which items meet the requirements;
(2) How to regulate fundraising, disclosure, and lock-up;
(3) How tokens move from investment contract relationships to compliant circulation.
If the market only addresses "how to issue tokens" without addressing "how to trade and who supervises," the market impact will be limited.
My strategy is not to chase rallies just because of regulatory news: BTC and ETH are core positions, while counterfeit companies only focus on projects that truly have products, disclosures, and compliance paths.
The greatest value brought by clear regulation is not to raise all tokens, but to lower compliance discounts for high-quality projects.
The future market may not be a "bull market rally," but rather quality assets gaining premiums and problematic projects being repriced.
#CLARITY延期, the SEC plans to advance regulatory rule replacement $BTC $ETH Continuing to follow the script
Tonight, the US July CPI fully met expectations, withstanding the risk of oil price rebounds caused by the July Middle East conflict, continuing to follow a downward channel and removing the biggest tail risk for the market.
The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 46% to 40%. The market is gradually realizing that there will be no rate hikes this year, and that a rate cut is possible. This is the script I've been telling you all along: the Fed first plays hawkish to mislead the market—market despair—then data reverses—market perception shifts—Fed cuts rates.
This process is the market first falling, then gradually turning upward. After keeping the right rhythm, you can maintain stable positions, which feels very comfortable.
Tonight, gold failed to break through to $4500. Don't worry, resistance levels are divided. After a bit more volatility and full chip exchanges, a breakout will be stronger.
From a fundamental perspective, U.S. economic data is likely to continue weakening, while pressure on Tim Cook and the U.S. debt issuance issue (with Becent forced to intervene) will continue to weigh on U.S. credit and benefit gold.
After gold breaks out, silver will turn, because its financial attributes are lower than gold's, making it a follower-type asset. Therefore, some ambushes are also a viable strategy.
Today, Penguin Home released its financial report, with capital expenditures far exceeding expectations. In particular, Workbuddy's outstanding performance shows its AI implementation went smoothly. Although the negative cash flow is a short-term issue and the stock price fell tonight, in the long run, it supports the domestic mid- and downstream AI narrative, which is good news for the overall domestic AI theme.
The central bank announced tonight that it will conduct three 600 billion yuan reverse repo operations in the coming week, providing liquidity to hedge against liquidity shortages. This is good news for the A-share market, especially for liquid stocks like small and mid-cap stocks, which are worth watching in the short term.
Bitcoin has entered the August news vacuum period, time for space, and the new rally will only emerge after the bill is reviewed again in September. If prices fall now, it actually gives low prices a chance to buy chips, while a rise is just garbage time.
The above are personal views and do not represent investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.$BTC $ETH $SPCX During the week, the main stock once again touched 141, which was tested last weekend when liquidity was thin. However, there is still resistance between 139 and 143.3. Without major positive news and increased volume, even if a breakout is needed, it will have to be tested several times. Since rebounding from the bottom, the pullback has never broken below 130. The low keeps rising. The overall structure is strong. After unlocking twice on August 6 and 20, the number of outstanding shares will nearly triple, and its weight in the Nasdaq will rise. A new weight may be announced on September 11 On September 18, passive funds will follow the Nasdaq to buy. Based on the experience of the first entry on July 6, the market usually rushes in, then waits for the day of entry to dump shares into passive fund buying. So now, the short squeeze, the unlocked downward gap, and the buying expectations on September 18 work together to keep SPCX in an upward channel. If on August 20 and 6 are like on the 6th, with increased volume but no fall, the market will quickly start buying the passive buying in September. If the 20th falls below 130, first look at 125 to 128 Mechanical buying will be delayed but not disappear. If the unlock is absorbed, event funds will bet early on increased free circulation and higher target weights, likely around 145. If the new weights announced on September 11 exceed expectations, it could easily enter the event climax and possibly hit 150. If the overall strength overlaps with short covering, it might even reach around 160. The script is written, just waiting to see whether the market follows this trend. #July CPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? #黄金站上4400Gold has traded 10% in one week, and the bears have been crushed
It consecutively broke through the 4200, 4300, and 4400 levels, reaching $4430. It rose 10% in a week, with some people recovering 70,000 yuan in a week
Why is it so fierce? Four forces pushed together
The nonfarm payrolls collapsed. July employment decreased by 23,000, while the expectation was an increase of 80,000. CPI matched perfectly — 3.4%, fully in line with expectations, compared to the previous value of 3.5%. Rate hikes? Can't be raised anymore
The US dollar is collapsing. The US dollar index has fallen below 100, weakening for the second consecutive week. Central banks are also buying frantically—in Q2, global central banks net purchased 289 tons of gold, a year-on-year surge of 62%, and China's central bank increased holdings for 21 consecutive months. These people are not speculating for short-term trade, but are competing for chips
Mate is also helping out. Japanese government bond yields have soared to a 31-year high, with the 10-year term approaching 3%. The U.S. Treasury Secretary is desperately trying to rescue U.S. debt, but the situation is getting worse, and the market increasingly feels that the dollar's credibility is loosening—money is flowing toward gold
4400 holds, next target 4500-4800
My judgment: bullish! A weaker dollar, central bank buying, and unchanged interest rates are all medium-term logic. A pullback to 4300-4400 is a chance to get in. Don't wait until 5000 to regret itTonight, the US August CPI is out: overall year-on-year growth 3.4% (previous 3.5%), core year-on-year 2.5% (previous 2.6%), month-on-month overall +0.1%, core +0.2%, all within expectations. What does this data mean? Inflation hasn't exploded, but it's not good enough for the Fed to cut rates immediately. Traders cut the probability of a rate hike in September from 48% to around 42%. The dollar fell slightly, US Treasury yields dropped slightly, gold surged, and BTC and ETH also recovered accordingly. After the CPI comes out, why and how does the coin rise? To put it bluntly, this chain: Prices haven't gotten higher→ The Fed doesn't need to rush to raise rates. → Keeping money in banks isn't that tempting. → Idle money is willing to take risks. → BTC, this kind of "high-risk lottery," gets bought first. But note, "meeting expectations" doesn't mean "massive liquidity," so tonight's price isn't a surge but a "relief rally"—BTC pulled back from around 63,400 to 64,200, ETH jumped from 1878 to around 1910. XRP held at 1.02, SOL returned to 76.6. Where does the money flow? The order is very fixed: first buy $BTC (institutions act as digital gold, ETFs have returns), then stabilize ETH/BNB (mainstream face), then speculate on AI and infrastructure narratives like TAO/FET/$LINK public chains like SOL/SUI/$NEAR, and finally get a bit of a meme like DOGE/PEPE. Let's talk about the top thirty coins one by one (plain language). 💎 The three old men in the market $BTC Bitcoin (~64000): tonightAfter lying in the damp, cold lurking bushes for sixteen hours, his right knuckles were already stiff from the cold, but the target in the crosshair of the scope never missed the target by half a millimeter.
In sniper manuals, frequent trigger pulls are not bravery, but foolish suicide. Novices panic and shoot at the sight of leaves shaking, while true survivors are always waiting for the moment when gusts of wind stop, humidity stabilizes, and wind pressure locks in. Today's capital battlefield is no different from the damp, hot jungle filled with smoke and smoke.
Let's look at the battle reports presented by these infrastructure giants. Lumentum's Q4 revenue surged to $1.01 billion, a year-on-year surge of 109.3%, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.23—a solid breakthrough; CoreWeave earned about $2.58 billion in Q2, a 112% increase, burdened with $104 billion in undelivered orders, and its 2026 capital expenditure plunged to a high of $35 to $39 billion; Supermicro generated $11.12 billion in revenue in a single quarter, with gross margin rising to 17.5%, and the next quarter's earnings outlook directly broke through the market barrier. It's like heavy artillery positions on a battlefield unleashing firepower wildly, with the deafening roar of ammunition cascading.
But the fiercer the firepower, the more deadly the danger behind bunkers. After the first round of restrictions, SpaceX forced back to the launch price, but on August 20, about 7% of the chips still had to unplug—this means the enemy's logistics lines are about to switch again, and it's the window where the flanks are most vulnerable to exposing fatal weaknesses. As Coherent, Applied Materials, and Cisco all enter the main sight range, all shooters in the market are fixated on the same question: Can the surging real demand withstand the massive capital expenditure pressure on valuations?
It's like frantically consuming heavy machine gun bullets on a position. If every suppressive round doesn't deliver substantial ground advancement, the barrel will overheat and burn, and the powerful recoil will instantly shatter your own shoulder blade. In the midst of the computing power arms race, $XDELL as a linked target on the range, its fluctuation trajectory is like the scale on an anemometer.
In my thermal imaging scope, $XDELL's current posture is not a blind charge but a highly disciplined tactical displacement behind heavy cover. The explosion of computing hardware orders has provided it with ample bulletproof armor, but the huge capital consumption behind the lines is evolving into unpredictable lateral crosswinds. If the subsequent performance output cannot maintain over 100% ballistic correction accuracy, any slight recoil deviation can instantly collapse a highly valued dummy target.
A true top hunter would never be dazzled by the numbers flying everywhere. No matter how loud the noise is, it's just fireworks for amateurs. Until I calculate wind speed, measure trajectory, or lock in a perfect break-even ratio, my bullets always remain in the rifling.
Behind the cover, the striker needle locks on, waiting quietly for the wind to stop.
#AIInfraEarningsWatch The CPI data is out and is in line with expectations. Inflation is trending downward, and the direction is correct.
This means the probability of a rate hike in September is basically gone. Previously, the market's biggest concern was a rebound in inflation and continued tightening by the Federal Reserve, but now that suspense has been resolved.
The direction is confirmed, but the market hasn't moved yet.
BTC is still hovering around 64,000. This isn't because the positive news isn't enough, but because the market needs time to digest it. For nearly a month, the market was stuck here, and neither bulls nor bears dared to move first. Now that the data has landed, sentiment will gradually be released.
I judge it to be a consolidation upward, not a single line pulling upward. At 64,000, slowly wear down and rise slowly, much more stable than a rapid rally.
Don't chase the highs; wait for pullbacks to buy slowly. Wait a few days to see how the market reacts.
$BTC $ETH The U.S. CPI figures this time fully match market expectations. Bitcoin had already started an early rally to digest this positive trend. Now that the news has officially arrived, the market has entered a phase of "good news turning negative." Below is a breakdown of the subsequent trading strategy based on the market situation.
1. Summary of the day's market trends
BTC hit a low of $63,238 today before rebounding, surged to $64,500 in the afternoon, but bulls couldn't hold the gains, causing the price to plunge rapidly. The current price hovered around $64,000, with a 24-hour cumulative decline of 0.47%.
The daily fluctuation range was 63,238-64,500 USD, with a range of 1,277 USD. The candlestick closed with a long upper shadow, clearly proving heavy selling pressure at 64,500 USD and strong resistance to the rebound. With positive news coming true, the market will return to its original bearish trend.
2. Analysis of the matching between trading volume and price
Looking at the 4-hour candlestick chart, the price rebounded to the $64,240 level. When the rally reached $64,500 in the evening, trading volume continued to shrink. The rebound saw no new capital entering to take over, and the market's willingness to chase gains was extremely low. Bullish momentum was already weak, and this rebound was merely a temporary recovery from short-term bearish strength.
Daily-level trading volume has significantly shrunk compared to the previous day, forming a typical volume-price divergence pattern, with volume continuing to decline. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the bear-dominated market structure remains unchanged.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
@该用户已被屏蔽
$BTC 🔥 BTC is no longer just a “buy and never sell” story. And that changes everything.
To be honest, the more I think about it, the more interesting it gets.
For a long time, listed companies buying $BTC and $ETH felt like permanent supply leaving the market. They bought, locked the coins away, and investors assumed: “These guys aren’t selling.” That narrative gave retail a lot of confidence.
But reality is more complicated.
These companies have shareholders to answer to, debt to service, dividends to consider, and financial reports to protect. If crypto prices fall hard or cash flow gets tight, that “diamond hands forever” narrative can change very quickly.
That means there’s now another risk hanging over $BTC and $ETH: institutional selling pressure. 🗡️
In the short term, that’s obviously uncomfortable. Knowing a large holder could sell when conditions get ugly adds another layer of uncertainty.
But in the long run, I actually think this is part of a healthier, more mature market.
A market where everyone only buys and nobody sells isn’t sustainable. Real markets need capital to flow in and out. Only through that constant circulation can prices prove whether they have genuine strength.
As for me, I’m currently holding no positions and staying patient.
I’m watching around $62K for BTC and $1,800 for ETH as important areas to defend. I’d rather wait for the CPI data to land, see which direction the market chooses, and then gradually consider going long.
No rush. Let the market show its hand first. 👀📊
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #CPI #Bitcoin
#DailyOrbit 美国SEC正准备推出“创新豁免”，允许代币化股票在区块链上实现24/7全天候交易。简单说，就是把苹果、特斯拉这些传统股票做成链上代币，随时都能买卖，不用再等美股开盘。 这个消息如果落地，对加密市场肯定会有影响，尤其是$BTC 和$ETH 。 先说比特币。短期来看，未必全是好事。代币化股票相当于给传统股票加了区块链的便利，有股票收益，还能全天交易，对一部分资金会有吸引力。那些本来把比特币当“数字黄金”或者风险资产配置的人，可能会分一点仓位过去。比特币一直强调自己是去中心化、抗审查的价值储存，一旦股票也能上链24小时交易，这个叙事的独特性多少会被冲淡一点。 但拉长来看，对比特币整体还是偏正面的。传统机构要玩代币化股票，就必须建区块链基础设施、开合规通道。这些通道一旦打通，比特币作为流动性最好的加密资产，反而更容易被机构买进去。监管态度从之前的严格，转向主动设计豁免框架，本身就说明加密和传统金融的边界在被正式划定，不确定性降低，对市场情绪是利好。而且等链上堆了越来越多中心化的股票代币后，比特币真正去中心化的属性会显得更突出。 再看以太坊，影响会更直接。代币化股票本质是证券代币，需要智能合约来$BICO — BICO is getting hit hard, down 9.54% near $0.0347. Volatility is high, so I'm watching for stabilization around $0.032–$0.034 before any rebound attempt.
EP: $0.033–$0.035
TP: $0.037 / $0.040 / $0.044
SL: $0.031$GALA — GALA is down 1.45% as sellers test the market. Holding around $0.00165 could give buyers a chance to turn this weakness into a rebound.
EP: $0.00166–$0.00171
TP: $0.00178 / $0.00187 / $0.00198
SL: $0.00160$GRVT 狗庄下一步怎么割？
短期（8月29日前）：大概率在0.28-0.35区间震荡。狗庄在解锁前不会让价格大涨大跌，反复收割追涨杀跌的散户。
中期（解锁后）：如果解锁后价格在0.26-0.28区间企稳并放量，GRVT可能构筑中期底部后反弹至0.40-0.50。如果解锁抛压超预期，下方0.22-0.25是极端目标。
最后一句掏心窝的话：
GRVT今天0.324，ZKsync生态、前高盛团队、UPBIT上线——故事很性感。但11.43%流通、8月29日20%解锁、FDV是市值8倍——三颗雷全摆在那。 0.324这位置，多头怕砸回0.30，空头怕狗庄拉盘到0.35。管住手，等8月29日解锁利空出尽再动手！ 记住，在币圈活得久，比赚得多重要一万倍！散会！$CORE CORE Stuck at 0.019, Waiting for Key Event
Sideways CORE at ~$0.019, low volume, market cap ~$24.9M.
CPI is not recovering. The project is moving to revenue-driven — ecosystem fees will be used to purchase CORE. Three products (liquid staking, SatPay, asset management) are still in the works, but the timeline is uncertain, and Stacks is ahead.
Short-term, observe — wait for SatPay data and on-chain revenue. $BTC $ETH $GRVT Why is it stuck here—11.43% circulation + unlock on August 29, Dog Farm waiting!
GRVT's fundamentals are solid in the ZKsync ecosystem—former Goldman Sachs/Meta team, TVL over 100 million, monthly trading volume 51.6 billion, nearly 10 exchanges listed on Binance, OKX, Bybit, and others, UPBIT KRW trading pair. The ZKsync architecture is one of the hottest narratives in 2026, and GRVT is one of the core targets in this track.
But tokenomics are a major flaw: total supply of 1 billion, circulating only 114 million (11.43%), FDV is more than eight times the market cap. On August 29, there will be another 20% token unlock. Dog Farm is not in a rush to pump the market now, because before the unlock on August 29, every rally was for selling off.Tonight's CPI is not about poor data, but about getting itchy for it
Tonight is CPI again.
At 20:30 Beijing time, the United States released July inflation data. The market roughly expected: overall CPI rose about 0.1% month-on-month and fell year-on-year to 3.4%; Core CPI year-on-year was about 2.5%.
On nights like this, the group chat is especially lively.
Some people opened long positions early.
Some people opened their positions early.
Some have already written scripts of "taking off below expectations, waterfall immediately above expectations."
I used to like guessing too.
Before the data was released, I kept an eye on the candlesticks, thinking that as long as I judged a number correctly, I could catch a big market rally.
After being penetrated back and forth several times, I finally realized:
What CPI does best is not to tell you the right direction, but to first clear out those who are confident.
What really matters tonight may not be 3.4% or 3.5%, but whether this figure will change market expectations for the Fed's next move.
If inflation is significantly lower than expected, expectations of rate cuts will reheat, US Treasury yields and the dollar may weaken, and risk assets will naturally feel more comfortable.
If core inflation hardens again, the market will have to face a new problem:
The economy has already begun to cool down, but the Federal Reserve may not dare to ease restrictions immediately.
This combination of "weak growth and persistent inflation" is what makes the market feel most uncomfortable.
As for just meeting expectations, it doesn't necessarily mean a price increase.
Because market trading has never been about the data itself, but also about positions, expectations, and how many people had already placed bets in advance.
Sometimes the numbers are good, and the market surges quickly and then goes back.
It's not that the data suddenly fails.
But those who want to buy it may have already bought it.
So tonight I'll watch, but I'm not planning to go all out with the first needle.
The first few seconds of 20:30 were all about machine speed, not an ordinary person's cognitive advantage.
If you look later to see whether the dollar, US Treasury, and BTC are in the same direction, you might lose one candlestick and pay less emotional tax.
Tonight, the CPI only has one confirmed result:
The data will definitely be released.
As for how the market explains it, it usually only becomes clear after the first group of people who rushed in have paid the bill.
Guess one less number.
Leave a little more room for maneuver.
Surviving is more important than guessing correctly.
#CPI #比特币 #美股 #加密市场 #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? $CORE CORE Hovers at 0.019, Awaiting Ecosystem Catalysts
CORE continues to consolidate around $0.019 with low volume, market cap ~$24.9M.
CPI data failed to spark a rebound. The project is shifting from inflation-driven to revenue-driven — ecosystem fees will be used for buybacks. Three product lines (liquid staking, SatPay, asset management protocol) are in progress, but delivery timelines remain uncertain, with competitors like Stacks holding a first-mover edge.
$BTC $ETH $CORE CORE is trading sideways at 0.019, waiting for the ecosystem to take hold
CORE continues to consolidate around $0.019 with a shrinking volume and a market capitalization of about $24.9 million.
CPI implementation failed to drive a rebound. Project fundamentals are shifting from inflation-driven to real revenue-driven — ecosystem fees will be used to buy back CORE in the secondary market. Three major product lines (liquid staking, SatPay, asset management protocols) are underway, but implementation progress remains the biggest uncertainty, with competitor Stacks having a clear first-mover advantage.
In the short term, let's wait for SatPay data and revenue to be verified. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession. #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets is heating up $BTC $ETH Bitcoin Miners Are Becoming AI Infrastructure Companies
For years, Bitcoin miners were valued primarily on three things: hash rate, energy costs and BTC prices.
That framework is starting to change.
Riot Platforms reportedly signed a 20-year AI infrastructure agreement with Anthropic worth $9.1 billion, with the potential to reach $16.1 billion through extension options. The deal covers 191 megawatts of computing capacity at Riot's Rockdale campus in Texas, sending shares sharply higher.
The significance goes well beyond Riot.
Bitcoin miners already own one of AI's most valuable resources: large-scale power infrastructure.
Grid access, cooling systems and data center capacity—once built for mining—are increasingly becoming attractive assets for AI companies racing to secure compute.
This creates an entirely new business model.
Instead of relying solely on Bitcoin mining rewards, operators can generate long-term contractual revenue from AI infrastructure while maintaining exposure to crypto.
If this trend accelerates, investors may begin valuing miners less like cyclical commodity businesses and more like digital infrastructure providers.
The biggest question isn't whether miners can diversify.
It's whether AI revenue eventually becomes more valuable than Bitcoin mining itself.
Do you think AI infrastructure will become the primary growth engine for public Bitcoin miners over the next decade?
Share your thoughts below 👇#RiotSignsAnthropicDeal SPCX has made progress, reaching 141 again during the midweek main stock period, testing 141 during last weekend's thin liquidity. However, there is still pressure between 139 and 143.3. Without major positive news + increased volume, even breaking through requires several repeated tests
Starting from the bottom rebound, SPCX has never broken below 130 after pulling back, and its lows have continued to rise, showing strong overall performance
After the two unlocks on August 6 and August 20, the SPCX float will nearly triple, increasing its weight in the Nasdaq. On September 11, new weights may be announced, and on September 18, passive funds following the Nasdaq will buy again
Looking at the experience of the first indices on July 6, the market usually rushes in and then waits for the day to enter and dumps shares into passive funds. So now, the combined effect of short squeeze + unlocking the unmet gap period + buying expectations on September 18 keeps SPCX in an upward channel
If August 20 and August 6 are like this, with increased volume but no decline, the market will quickly start rushing to buy passive buying in September
If the 130 level falls below on August 20, then first look at 125–128, and mechanical buying will be delayed rather than disappearing
If the unlock is absorbed, event funds will bet in advance on increased free circulation and higher target weights. It will probably go around 145
If the new weights announced on September 11 exceed market expectations, it could easily enter a peak period and possibly challenge the 150 range. If the overall strength is combined with short covering, it could even reach around $160 for $SPCX 7月CPI全部符合市场预期：
整体CPI同比3.4%，环比+0.1%；核心CPI同比2.5%，环比+0.2%。
叠加此前7月非农数据意外走弱，两份数据共同削弱了9月美联储加息的逻辑，但加息预期并没有直接归零，当前市场定价9月加息概率依旧维持在40%附近。
为什么CPI没有把加息彻底证伪
• 如果CPI大幅超预期走高，就会强化这套逻辑：通胀顽固，就算就业降温，美联储依旧选择9月加息。
• 本次CPI仅仅符合预期，核心通胀保持温和，没有给到鹰派新的开火理由。
现在宏观组合变成：就业降温 + 通胀没有再度失控，对比之前“经济强劲、通胀顽固”，已经很难支撑加息落地。路透同样提到，CPI叠加疲弱非农，已经压低9月加息可能性。
但不能直接判定加息完全没戏，根源在于美联储内部鹰派立场依旧很硬。
7月议息会议，12名拥有投票权官员中，就有3位直接支持25bp加息，部分官员依旧把抑制通胀放在第一位。
后续两大变量还会改写9月政策预期：
1. 后续8月通胀相关数据。一旦核心通胀再度反弹，本次CPI带来的利好会快速被消化。
2. 美联储官员公开讲话。重点关注沃什等鹰派人物表态，如果继续强调2%通胀目标不可妥协，9月加息选项依旧保留。
映射到$BTC的现实逻辑
⚠️这是拆掉加息炸弹，不等于开启降息大行情，两件事要区分开。
✅短期传导链条：
非农转弱 → 加息根基松动
CPI符合预期 → 通胀再度失控的担忧消除
9月加息定价下行 → 美债收益率、美元压力缓解
BTC、ETH拿到修复窗口
❗想要走出持续性上涨行情，还需要满足配套条件：
ETF资金持续回流、市场成交量有效放大、整体风险偏好进一步抬升。
总结：9月加息风险相比非农之前已经明显减弱，但并未完全排除，现在只是阶段性缓和，不要直接博弈大级别多头趋势。
$BTC
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
交易员狗总Liquidity: Strong ETF inflows vs. miner sell-offs as hedging
ETF — 8 consecutive days of net inflows, cumulative over $1 billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, with cumulative inflows exceeding $1 billion. Yesterday (August 11, Eastern Time), net inflows reached $178 million. The net inflow in the first week of August was $853.5 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April.
However, caution is needed: yesterday, net ETF inflows were highly concentrated—BlackRock IBIT was the only major inflow ($50.2 million), while Fidelity's FBTC, ARKB, and others recorded outflows. Inflow momentum has greatly weakened.
Miners and Strategy sell-offs—fully offsetting ETF inflows
Paul Howard, Senior Head at Wincent, pointed out that the steady inflows into ETFs are being completely offset by off-exchange selling by miners and Strategy (MSTR) corporate holders. Public miners have sold about 28,000 BTC (worth approximately $1.78 billion) this year. Bitfinex analysts also noted that corporate capital trading has created some selling pressure, explaining why BTC rose only about 2% last week. Cryptocurrency trading volume has dropped to a three-year low, with little momentum to drive BTC to break out in either direction.
On-chain—Whales increased their holdings by 46,000 BTC in 60 days, but demand remains weak
Whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC accumulated a total increase of 46,420 BTC over 60 days, reaching the highest level since March. However, CryptoQuant analysts pointed out that increased holdings exhibited a "passive absorption" characteristic—placing orders rather than actively taking them. On-chain spot demand remains net negative. A net spot outflow of $71.94 million in 24 hours has turned negative for the week. $BTC $ETH $BEAT #CLARITY延期, the SEC plans to advance regulatory rule supplementation $SKHYNIX With SK Hynix's market cap, it's no wonder crypto is being drained. AI is currently a huge chain—a bottleneck shift process. From model companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, to Shovel subsidiaries, AMD, NVIDIA, and now to Shovel subsidiaries and storage giants, and later to Shovel subsidiaries, that is, basic materials and infrastructure companies like energy and power facilities and cabinet cooling companies. When profits stop being passed on, the game ends, and only then may market funds return to crypto$EDGE
The market remains volatile, but that's where opportunity is created. Smart money is quietly accumulating while volume begins to recover. $EDGE is holding a key support zone with upside potential.
EP: 0.349 – 0.355
TP1: 0.368
TP2: 0.385
TP3: 0.405
SL: 0.338$SHIB /USDT 1H — NO TRADE
Bias: Neutral / Range-bound
Key Level: 0.000004500
Long Trigger: Clean 1H close above 0.000004510
Short Trigger: Clean 1H breakdown below 0.000004419
Reasoning: SHIB is currently chopping inside a tight horizontal range between local support at 0.000004469 and immediate resistance at 0.000004499. The price is hovering right around key moving averages with no clear directional momentum, and volume remains flat. Trading in the middle of this tight consolidation offers poor risk-to-reward for both longs and shorts.
#DailyOrbit $NBIS在财报利好刺激下放量大涨，短线RSI陷入高位超买区，交易桌核心矛盾在于获利盘阶段性落袋需求与长期预付款落地的筹码锁定效应之间的博弈。
Q2营收达582M美元（同比增454%），其中AI Cloud收入575M美元（同比增514%），此数据验证了算力需求向即期收入的转化。EBITDA达到236M美元，确认了规模效应正在推升盈利杠杆。
驱动因素排序上，资金流能见度优先于产能远景。今年预收客户款项预计超9B美元，直接覆盖大部分Capex，降低了加杠杆融资带来的风险偏好顾虑。平均每兆瓦年合同价值超20M美元，表明高定价权持续支撑多头仓位。
在上行剧本中，若2026年上修至5GW的产能指引持续吸引机构买盘跟进，市场将顺应2027年产能提前售罄逻辑继续推高估值。需要观察高位超买换手后的买盘承接力度。该剧本失效的信号是高位出现无量阴跌或预付款资金流验证中断。
在下行剧本中，高位RSI超买引发获利盘集中兑现，短线多头止损离场拖累价格回踩下方支撑。需要观察筹码结构是否向散乱的追高资金分散。该剧本失效的信号是回踩过程中成交量迅速萎缩并被快速拉回高位。
未来7天最核心的观察变量是高位获利盘的换手消化效率，以及9B美元预付款在资金链上的落地确认节奏。
#比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？#霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, US-Iran pressure escalates. Negotiations over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz are currently deadlocked and characterized by "close technology, no political solution." Not only did the US and Iran fail to reach an agreement, but their military and economic pressure continued to escalate, even making compensation demands for each other. 🚧 Negotiation deadlock: The disconnect between "technology" and "politics" The core of the current deadlock lies in the fundamental opposition of negotiation logic between the two sides: There is progress on the technical level: Iran and Oman have reached an agreement in negotiations, agreeing on the geographic coordinates of the new route, and proposing a diversion plan of "arriving at the port via Iran, leaving via Oman." Politically, it is choking: Iran has made it clear that the agreement with Oman does not mean reopening the strait. The real condition for reopening is that the United States must meet its political demands, including ending military operations, lifting blockades and sanctions, returning frozen assets, and compensating for losses. 🗣️ The Bargaining Between Both Sides: From "Approaching the Agreement" to "Mutual Compensation" As the conflict intensifies, the focus of the game has shifted from channel management to mutual accusations and compensation claims. Iran: Setting high thresholds: bundling the opening of the strait with multiple core demands, attempting to use the waterways as a core bargaining chip to leverage broader interests. United States: Pressure to drive change: Claims "100% control" of the strait. Faced with Iran's terms, the Trump administration has reversed, making claims and attempting to "equalize" the compensation issue. ⚔️ Escalation: Military Pressure and Economic Stranglement As diplomacy stalled, pressure from both sides continues to escalate: Military standoff intensifies: U.S. forcesBTC has already dropped to around $63,000, but I am instead looking at: how much of the supply is still in profit.
Currently, about 58.75% of BTC is in profit.
In past deep bear phases, this ratio has fallen to 50% or even lower. It has clearly cooled down now, but there is still a distance from the historical extreme pessimistic zone.
So my judgment remains unchanged:
It's worth starting to pay attention, but it's not yet the time to look at a single chart and shout "historical bottom."
Continue to wait for several cycle indicators to resonate.
#btc bottom##btc#APR shorting is feasible, but caution is needed regarding short-term surges and forced liquidation risks caused by "giant needles"; ETH has performed poorly this year, and profits from long and short positions are more of a structural issue.
$APR: Basis and risk for short selling
- Project Positioning: aPriori ($APR) focuses on order flow coordination and MEV optimization for high-performance blockchains
- Historical Massive Retracement: After surging in the early days of listing, it continued to fall, dropping nearly 80% from its peak, with huge volatility
- Unlock suppression: The November 2025 unlock triggered a rapid drop of about 55%; July 2026 saw another large-scale unlock, with significant short-term supply pressure
- Giant Needle Risk: Although no record of 20% accuracy on the 15-minute chart has been found, history and unlock events indicate its extreme volatility characteristics. The "giant needle" may come from large liquidations or liquidity raids
- Operation Recommendations:
- Batch positioning: Try short positions with small positions to reserve room for addition, avoiding a one-time heavy position being pierced by a needle
- Stop-loss discipline: If there is an extreme surge, cut losses decisively according to the plan to prevent loss control
- Focus on Unlocking: As the large unlock window approaches, the risk-reward ratio is better, making it a key moment to short sell
$ETH: Why is it hard to make money from both long and short positions?
- Price Performance: 2026 is the worst in recent years, with a year-to-date drop of about 44%, and nearly a 70% drawdown from its all-time high
- June Flash Crash: It plunged over 20% in a short period, dropping from above $2,000 to the $1,500 range
- Market structural contradictions: retail investor enthusiasm has dropped to 2020 levels, but institutions continue to invest in on-chain construction and ETF capital flows, making prices insensitive to both types of signals
- Fundamental disturbances: Ethereum Foundation layoffs and budget cuts, as well as some upgrade delays, have suppressed market sentiment
- Operation Recommendations:
- Reduce leverage: During periods of high volatility and uncertain trends, prioritize reducing leverage and controlling risk
- Focus on swing trading: Use a swing strategy in the $1500–$2000 range to avoid excessive one-sided trading
Action list
- $APR: Gradually short small positions, set stop-losses (e.g., a 200% rally is stop-loss), then evaluate and add positions near the unlock window
- $ETH: Reduce leverage, trade swings, and focus on support and resistance in the $1500–$2000 range for $APR If you've been watching those superstar projects with a $1 billion valuation and tens of millions in funding from just a few slides, I urge you to wake up quickly.
The primary market for cryptocurrencies is undergoing an extremely brutal debubble movement.
According to the latest disclosed venture capital data, in the first week of August this year, the total crypto financing in the primary market disclosed across the internet actually shrank to a pitiful $76.35 million, with only ten public financing events completed.
Over $70 million in financing, which might have previously only been the half-term financing quota for a general L2, is now being divided among ten projects.
This cold data shows that the traditional VC story of relying on high FDV, low circulation, and relying on secondary retail investors to take over has completely stopped telling during this dry period.
Here, attention should be paid to recent micro-level changes in capital flows.
In this severe downturn of the primary market, money has not completely disappeared; instead, it has shifted from purely academic, high-threshold speculative technology development to "strategic investments" with strong ecosystem implementation and distribution capabilities.
For example, Africa's compliant crypto channel Yellow Card recently completed a $40 million strategic financing led by Polychain, and travel app Entravel successfully secured a $7.5 million strategic addition.
These funded projects all share a very common trait: they don't talk about macro narratives but directly face the real economy, possessing strong self-sustaining and channel distribution capabilities.
This is actually a clear signal of a return to value.
Venture capital firms are no longer willing to pay for formulas and technical white papers that just float around; they need to see real fiat orders, real user retention, and a commercial closed loop that can be monetized.
Why did this turn happen?
Actually, it's simple: the primary market dares to blow bubbles wildly because retail investors in the secondary market are willing to be the buyers.
But since the beginning of this year, retail investors have launched a firm 'no buy-in campaign' against Tianwang coins with high FDV and massive token unlocks, causing new tokens to fall below issue price immediately upon launch. VCs now face a self-rescue dilemma where unlocking immediately resets to zero and DPI cannot be realized.
Since the secondary market is no longer taking over, VCs' exit channels are completely locked, so naturally, they no longer dare to recklessly overvalue the primary market.
This forces entrepreneurs to abandon those inflated traffic data and shift toward ecosystem collaboration and strategic investment.
By leveraging Polychain or other ecosystem giants for strategic binding, and using real business revenue and scenario consumption to support valuations, it has become the only way to survive.
Personally, I think this process of defoaming is actually very healthy.
A healthy ecosystem should absolutely not be made up of hundreds of 'zombie chains' with no real business and relying solely on token issuance to dilute retail investors.
Previous VC projects were like building empty cyber ghost towns, with only development teams and early investors entertaining themselves.
But in today's era of ecosystem strategic investment, people are forced to farm, to pull noodles, and to provide users with real daily value.
Although this made venture capital news appear much quieter, those surviving projects with self-sustaining capabilities will become the true anchors for the next round.
As you watch this week's financing hit just over $70 million, do you feel that the primary market has completely entered winter and industry development has stalled, or are you relieved by the bursting of the VC Ponzi bubble and the return of the real business era?
Anyway, I think, regardless of whether the story is good or not, let's see who can get through this winter night with real money. Who's the real long-term asset worth investing in.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard If you've got guts, pull me again! I refuse to believe you can up
Family, I'm emptying SNDK again.
Previously, I was hit twice by a single needle at SanDisk, but this time I refused to believe it. 30x leverage, 0.147 position, opening at 1377—let's see how far you can pull it.
📌 Current holdings
Variety SNDKUSDT is permanent
Direction: Short, 30x
Average opening price 1377.04
Current price: 1379.63
Unrealized Loss -0.39U (-5.79%)
Strong parity rate 1408.14
After shorting, it pulled a small wave, currently with a few unrealized losses, still within the normal range. Stop-loss set at 1398, still some distance from strong parity.
🔍 Why is it still empty?
(1) #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, pressure from the US and Iran escalates
The positive news from the US-Iran talks a couple of days ago has mostly been digested. The latest news is that the general aviation talks have not reached a substantive agreement, and both sides are still pressuring each other. The risk of geopolitical conflict has not truly been resolved, and oil prices could rebound at any time.
(2) SanDisk rose 10% in two days, overbought in the short term
SNDK rose from 1260 to 1388, up 10% in two days. This short-term surge is often a news-driven impulse rather than a trend reversal.
(3) #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近, divergences in financial reports remain unresolved
With Investor Day on August 13 approaching, there is still significant uncertainty regarding AI storage and HBF guidance. A breakout above this level requires stronger fundamental support, which is currently unclear.
💡 Why am I so persistent?
SNDK exploded twice before, both times pulling a needle to break the stop-loss and then crashing back. Honestly, I feel a bit resentful.
But this time I learned a bit: setting my stop loss at 1398 triggers earlier than the strong parity price of 1408, which essentially leaves me some room for active action. If it rises above 1398 and I lose a few points, I won't lose much.
The 30x leverage is indeed higher than the previous 20x, but the position is 0.147, which is within a controllable range and not to the point of losing control.
🎯 This plan
Stop loss at 1398
First target: 1356
Second target: 1330-1340
At 1356, first exit halfway; the rest depends on the situation. If it falls below 1330, you might hold a bit longer.
Final thoughts
SNDK, you've blown me up twice. Keep pushing, let's see how far you can go. Geopolitical risks haven't been resolved; after a sharp rise, there will definitely be a pullback.
If you've got guts, then blast me a third time.
(This is purely a personal trading record and does not constitute investment advice.) ）
$SNDK Are Trump's companies planning to abandon their cryptocurrency business?
If that were true, everyone would be happy
The reason the CLRITY Act has been delayed in passage for so long
Among them is a clause prohibiting the president and government officials from issuing and endorsing cryptocurrencies
This is one of the core bottlenecks
If Trump abandons the cryptocurrency business,
This bottleneck will no longer exist
If he didn't do it himself, he definitely wouldn't let others do it
Second, for the already issued $TRUMP and $WLFI
This is practically a definite short-selling opportunity
These two coins have existed for harvesting since their inception
Harvest a big move before the bill passes
This fits Trump's style very well
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? $BTC $BTC This data has given the market some relief, but a real rate cut is still far off
US July CPI and core CPI year-on-year fell to 3.4% and 2.5% year-on-year, respectively, both in line with expectations and continuing to decline, but inflation remained above the 2% target, with housing costs contributing significantly
Combined with an unexpected drop in employment, the need for a Fed rate hike in September has diminished, but inflation has not reached the target limiting room for easing. Going forward, PPI and employment data will be key. Whether a rate hike in September will remain uncertain. #July CPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? No CPI explosion, but BTC fell below 63,800: this is the real warning sign tonight
All July CPI figures met expectations: overall year-on-year growth of 3.4%, core year-on-year growth of 2.5%. After the data was released, the dollar weakened, and the probability of a rate hike in September dropped to about 40%, effectively easing macroeconomic pressure.
But BTC did not buy in.
Currently, BTC is around $63,400, having broken below the previous support level of 63,800; Meanwhile, after the U.S. market opened, the Nasdaq actually rose about 0.64%.
This means short-term issues may have shifted from "macro bearish" to selling pressure within the crypto market itself.
Next, let's focus on:
BTC: 63,200 holds → Let's first see if 63,800 can recover; Only by stabilizing above 64,500 can it be considered a true strengthening.
ETH: The 1900 area remains the core battleground for bulls and bears; a break above 1925–1940 is needed to further open up resilience. Currently, ETH is around $1907.
The most important thing to watch out for tonight is not the CPI, but rather the following:
The negative news has disappeared, but prices have remained stagnant.
If the Nasdaq remains strong, the dollar remains weak, and BTC still fails to reclaim key levels, it indicates that selling pressure is overriding macro positive factors.
The data doesn't push for long; the price itself is the answer. $BTC $ETH #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? $MERL
The market is showing classic signs of a potential reversal. Selling pressure is easing, whale wallets continue accumulating, and confidence is slowly returning. $MERL is approaching a key support area that could fuel a powerful rebound.
EP: 0.0181 – 0.0185
TP1: 0.0198
TP2: 0.0212
TP3: 0.0230
SL: 0.0173From the market perspective, $BTC retreated to around $63,469. Although the drop was small, the heavy selling at the night's low exposed the fragility of bulls' confidence. $ETH relatively resilient and holding the $1,890 level, though this divergence is more due to capital movement rather than standalone strengthening. The current transmission chain is clear and brutal: rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, inflation expectations squeeze the room for rate cuts, and risk assets bear the brunt. Both the US and Iran are increasing their bargaining chips, but the real risks of the blockade have not been resolved, and international tolerance is declining, making the short-term stalemate difficult. Tonight's CPI data marks a watershed moment. If inflation cools more than expected, the logic chain can still ease; If the data rebounds, both geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures will form a combined force, $BTC or test lower ranges. Before the data is released, the market direction is unclear, and holders need to accept the reality of amplified volatility. Sentiment during night sessions is far less realistic than the numbers; waiting is the best strategy. $BTC $ETH $BZ $CL #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession. #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets heats up $SNDK At this level, it's just grinding back and forth—a little gain, a little sell-off, a little sell-off, wearing down the patience of bulls, wearing down the confidence of bears. When both sides settle down, the direction will emerge. I estimate this shakeout will last about a month. As long as AI doesn't crash, the long-term logic of storage remains intact. But short-term sentiment still needs to be digested. SanDisk's guidance is weak, and concerns about gross margin peaking haven't disappeared. The rebound is just giving the bears position. If this pace continues, there's a high chance of testing around 1000. At that point, it will depend on whether you dare to heavily bet $BTC$ Don't chase rises or sell during ETH shakeout phase; wait until that level is available before acting. #July CPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings debut in succession. #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets is heating up New large positions opened on-chain: 98 orders in 50 seconds, high-frequency whales dumped 820,000 short orders
Within 50 seconds, there were 98 split orders, with an average transaction price of 922. MP05 directly opened $823,000 short positions on xyz:MU, moving quickly and densely.
This address has been listed for a long time on the 7-day and historical PnL leaderboards, with equity of 4.99 million, historical profit of 8.93 million, a win rate of 59.5%, and 351 out of 590 short trades, indicating an inherently bearish style.
But this time, there was no old same-direction position, so it was a purely new opening, and the account snapshot equity was only 2.54 million yuan, a significant position proportion, not like a test order.
Next, watch if it will add positions or cut losses early when the price rebounds. If it continues to go short, the directional signal will be stronger.
Public data observation does not constitute any operational advice.
If you like my sharing, please give me a followBitcoin $BTC Ethereum $ETH I'm finally going to sell off the market. After weathering the storm, the moon has finally come to light. After holding out for over ten days, Bitcoin $BTC has finally turned green. Looking at this trend, the downward channel shows no rebound at all. Once it breaks yesterday's previous low, the decline will accelerate. After benefiting from this wave of contract profits, I can enter a batch of spot trading. It's truly a win-win. Hopefully, the trend will go as expected. Let the fireworks get a bite of the meat. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, and corporate finances are becoming more diverse CPI降温，BTC为何反跌？
截至北京时间8月12日23:03，美国劳工统计局公布：7月CPI环比涨0.1%、同比3.4%，前值3.5%；核心CPI同比2.5%。通胀降温，利于流动性预期。
但OKX数据显示，BTC从64497美元高点回落至63424美元，利好未获价格确认。这可能是预期已被消化，也可能是风险偏好弱。明晚20:30还有PPI。来源：美国劳工统计局、OKX。
未来24—72小时：基准看63200—64500震荡；偏强需收复64500且PPI降温；偏弱是PPI回升并跌破63200。反方是核心CPI也回落；若BTC迅速收复64500，谨慎判断失效。
今日事件风险等级：高。宜降低杠杆、控制敞口，等待PPI落地。你更看重通胀方向，还是价格对利好的冷淡反应？
#BTC #CPI
本文仅为个人市场观察，不构成投资建议。The day after tomorrow, the SEC is set to do something the crypto industry has never done before: legislating its own legislation.
At 10 a.m. on August 14 (Eastern Time), the SEC will hold a public meeting in Washington to vote on the "Regulation Crypto" proposal. The core of this proposal is to create a tailored issuance channel for "investment contracts" involving crypto assets—in other words, to give crypto projects a clear, legal path to sell and raise funds for the first time, rather than being thrown into a meat grinder for securities registration.
The timing is interesting. The Senate's Clarity Act was stuck and failed to advance before the August recess; the earliest procedural vote could be held on September 15. The legislative pipeline was blocked, and Atkins' SEC bypassed Congress to start work on its own. This is not the first time regulators have outmaneuvered lawmakers, but the scale of action is unprecedented.
The real drama lies in a long-standing question: a token that was originally a security—can it "graduate" into a commodity once the project matures? In March, the SEC and CFTC jointly explained that the asset itself is not a security and can be "entered or exited" into an investment contract. This proposal will most likely formally include this graduation channel in the rules. Who benefits the most? Not BTC.
$BTC's identity has long been clean—the CFTC is classified as a commodity, the regulatory path is clear, and the new rules are at best a bonus. As of the afternoon of August 12, BTC was hovering around $63,382, down about 0.6% in 24 hours. The 65,000-65,600 level above is firmly pressed down, while the 63,700-64,000 below is a tug-of-war zone between long and bearish. What it's really waiting for now isn't the SEC, but the August 13 CPI — market expectation of 3.4%. This figure directly determines how the September rate cut scenario will unfold. BTC follows liquidity pricing, and there's little extra regulation left at the margin.
$ETH is a completely different story. Since shifting to PoS in 2022, the suspicion of "staking = securities" has always hung over it. Although ETFs have been approved, companies like Grayscale and BlackRock have never dared to touch the lucrative staking yields, and institutions always have a discount in their ETH allocation. As of August 12, ETH was near $1887, down about 1.3% intraday, more than halved from last year's high of 4400—how much of this is valuation suppression and how much is "suspected securities" discounting, the market knows what it is. If the proposal passes and enters public review on August 14, ETH's "graduation" channel will have a written legal basis for the first time, and the release of staking ETFs and institutional custody restrictions will become a pricing timetable. ETH may benefit from greater regulatory dividends than BTC; this is not speculation but structural differences.
Of course, cold water has been poured on it: Friday's vote passed only for public review, and TD Cowen analysts estimate the final rule may take 12 months or even longer to implement. In the short term, don't treat "proposal passed" as "rule effectiveness" for speculation.
The core contradiction now is actually very clear: the macro side CPI + rate cut path determines short-term liquidity pricing, while the SEC's rulemaking on the regulatory side determines the medium-term valuation recovery potential. The Fear and Greed Index is 33, and the market is still in the fear zone, but certainty about regulatory easing is gradually building up. If tomorrow night's CPI is moderate and the SEC allows it the day after, BTC's return to 65,000 is just the starting point, and ETH's elasticity will likely be greater—after all, in the regulatory discount repair track, the deeper the discount, the more room for a rebound."Buy expectations, sell facts": Before the CPI release, the market had already risen in advance to absorb the "positive expectations." After the data was released, the positive news materialized, with some short-term funds choosing to take profits, triggering a sell-off. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? The data itself did not exceed expectations: although the year-on-year CPI growth rate dropped to 3.4%, it fully met market expectations. Without a "better-than-expected" surprise, there can be no additional upward momentum. Expectations for rate cuts are blocked, and there are even concerns about rate hikes: the market believes the probability of a 50% rate hike and a cut in September is 50% different from the expected cut, which weighs on the valuations of risk assets like Bitcoin. Heavy long-term selling pressure: The ongoing inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have been completely offset by two selling forces. First, listed mining companies have sold about 28,000 BTC (worth about $1.78 billion) this year; second, companies like Strategy (MicroStrategy) have sold off off-market assets. Geopolitics and Low Liquidity: Tensions in the Middle East (such as the Strait of Hormuz issue) have triggered risk-off sentiment in the market. At the same time, market trading volume has dropped to a three-year low, and a small number of sell orders can trigger significant price fluctuations. Simply put, Bitcoin's decline is the result of "profit-taking from positive gains," "lack of macro-level interest rate cut surprises," "long-standing selling pressure," and "subdued market liquidity."After CPI is implemented, what really matters is not the rise or fall, but who is revealing the intentions of the funds
There is no black swan in tonight's CPI.
US overall CPI for July was 3.4% year-on-year, and core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, both in line with expectations. US Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened, but since the market had already traded in for inflation to cool in advance, the data alone was not enough to create a new one-sided rally.
Instead, the trends of these three types better illustrate what capital is doing.
SPCX's continuous sideways movement essentially means waiting for macro catalysts to choose direction. Before a valid breakout, sideways movement is neither strong nor weak, but a temporary balance between bulls and bears.
KAITO had previously retreated rapidly from 0.65 to 0.49, while OI declined, closer to "price and leverage clearing in sync." The most important aspect of this structure is not rushing to buy the dip, but waiting for spot market support to be reestablished.
APR is the exact opposite, quickly rising from 0.19 to 0.38. Nearing doubling in a short period means strong elasticity, but also means that the chasers are bearing extremely poor profit-loss ratios.
The three trends actually correspond to three different market conditions:
SPCX and other directions, KAITO deleveraging, APR to seize liquidity.
So what truly matters in data trading is never guessing the first candlestick.
Instead, wait until macro events take effect and see where the funds ultimately stay.
Opportunities can be missed, but wrong positions cannot be forced. $SPCX #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? $Tencent Holdings The core highlights of this Q2 2026 financial report can be summed up in two sentences: the main business is still growing, and AI investment is clearly accelerating. The issue is also very direct: after a sharp increase in capital expenditure, short-term free cash flow has turned negative. The market will need to watch whether these investments can translate into new income and profits. Let's look at the core data first: Tencent achieved Q2 revenue of 204.8 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year; gross profit was 118.4 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year. Non-IFRS operating profit was 75.6 billion yuan, up 9% year-on-year; Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 68.4 billion yuan, up 9% year-on-year. According to International Financial Reporting Standards, net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 billion yuan, up 0.7% year-on-year. In other words, while core operating performance remains solid, profit growth under IFRS is significantly lower than on non-IFRS levels. Advertising and gaming remain the main pillars of this financial report. By business, value-added services revenue was 98.4 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year, including domestic gaming revenue of 47.3 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year, and international game revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year. Online advertising revenue reached 43.6 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year, making it the segment with outstanding growth this quarter; Fintech and enterprise services revenue was 60.3 billion yuan, up 9% year-on-year. Structurally, Tencent does not rely on a single business segment to drive growth; gaming, advertising, and enterprise services all maintained positive growth. AI is moving from the investment phase to the productization stage. Tencent's description of AI is more specific than before. Hunyuan Hy3 is officially releasedEmpty! Empty!
Ladies, you're really going to be shorted
$SKDD This order finally made me smile!
Last night, when I was short selling, I was still complaining about my lazy hands, but when I opened my account just now, I saw it was 12.06, with a floating profit of 33 points!
Yesterday, I entered a short position at 13.67, with triple leverage.
Today, it plunged directly to 11.86, down 20.76% in 24 hours.
The Korean stock market fell 5%, SK Hynix plunged 6%, and the money I lost before finally got back from SKDD!
$DOGE Still hovering around 0.07057, with a 1% floating loss not yet left.
SKDD single-order covered all DOGE's losses and even made quite a profit.
The price is being held back by all moving averages.
As long as it doesn't break 13.5, the short logic is sound. Stop loss at 14.5, target 11.
One is still losing, the other has already made a profit.
Finally, I made up for the regret of not getting the full BICO order.
$BTC
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#黄金站上4400美元, demand for risk avoidance is heating up [Pharaoh Market Watch]
Private messages are exploding, everyone is asking the Pharaoh: CPI has landed, but will there still be an increase in September?
Pharaoh bluntly said CPI met expectations, the door for a rate hike in September is halfway closed, but it hasn't been locked yet. The data on August 12 was indeed steady: year-on-year 3.4%, core 2.5%, all hitting the bullseye. Combined with negative nonfarm payroll growth, the market immediately lowered the probability of a rate hike in September to 42%-48%.
There are two key points hidden in the data: the second consecutive month of energy price declines is the ballast stone, but housing costs still contributed two-thirds of the monthly CPI increase. This "inflation nail" cannot be removed, so the Fed dares not fully relax.
The market follows a "fall first, then rise" scenario, a typical "all negative news is gone" scenario. When the Bitcoin data first came out, it first pulled back to 64,000, then rebounded back to around 64,500. Using the old script, the gap in expectations for the September rate hike has been mostly priced in.
Overall, as long as August's CPI and employment data don't cause any further problems, September is very likely to be a "hold on for the position." Remember, good orders are made by waiting. The door to rate hikes is not closed, but the short-term script is clear: pullbacks and stabilization are more practical than chasing highs. The 65,000 threshold is an opportunity, and if you can't get past it, it's still an opportunity—just in different directions.
Follow Pharaoh, never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $BEAT #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? Brothers, let's start with the conclusion after the US stock market opened tonight: CPI did not explode, and the AI theme has taken over the market again. As of about 15 minutes after the US Eastern Time market opened on August 12: 📈 $QQQ QQQ +0.83% 📈 $IWM +0.34% 📈 $XSPY +0.25% 📈 $DIA +0.11% Technology clearly outperformed, while the Dow was the weakest. This shows the answer the market gave tonight is very straightforward: as long as inflation data does not exceed expectations, continue buying growth stocks. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📒First, the most important data tonight: CPI did not explode. The US July CPI was finally released: 📌 Month-over-month +0.1% 📌 Year-over-year +3.4% 📌 Core CPI month-over-month +0.2% 📌 Core CPI year-over-year +2.5% Basically all in line with market expectations. Moreover, the overall CPI year-over-year dropped from 3.5% in June to 3.4%. The biggest significance of this data is not: "Inflation has been solved." But rather: at least the market's worst fear of inflation exploding again did not happen. Especially since last week US nonfarm payrolls showed negative growth, now employment is weak and CPI has not worsened again, the Fed's reason to continue raising rates in September is naturally less sufficient. After the CPI release, the market's probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose to about 56%. So the familiar chain is back: CPI did not explode 👇 Rate hike worries decrease 👇 US Treasury yields fall 👇 TechnologyUNI's recent weakness is a typical combination of "narrative fulfillment followed by pullback + overall market risk appetite decline."
From a high-level perspective, UNI has never been an asset driven solely by "DEX trading volume"; its core pricing logic has long revolved:
1. True value capture capability of the protocol (fee switches, vaults, buyback expectations)
2. Expectations for governance and tokenomics
3. Uniswap's relative position in the DeFi ecosystem (especially competition from other DEX, L2, intent protocols)
The protocol itself remains extremely strong. Uniswap's trading volume, liquidity depth, brand, and network effects remain among the top tier in the industry. The problem is not the business, but whether the value transfer mechanism between tokens and protocols is clear and sustainable.
• UNI's long-term pricing depends on one thing: whether the real returns generated by the protocol can be flowed back to token holders in a predictable and verifiable way. If it is delayed in implementation, it will increasingly resemble an asset of "governance rights + brand premium" rather than a "cash flow asset." In today's market, which is extremely sensitive to "real returns," this positioning will be discounted.
• The competitive landscape is changing. Intent, aggregators, other on-chain DEXs, and even CEXs' on-chain efforts are all eroding the premium of "pure AMM trading volume." Uniswap still has a moat, but the marginal advantage brought by it is shrinking, so the market is also cautious about valuation multiples.
• Governance politics and execution efficiency are hidden risks. Governance in established DeFi projects often falls into the trap of "too much discussion, slow implementation." If the market perceives insufficient execution, it will directly reflect in token premiums.
A rough assessment of the current position
Currently, it feels more like a weak phase of oscillation with "decent fundamentals, narrative overdraw, and shifting capital preferences," rather than a collapse of "major agreement problems."🚨 BSC Activity Stays Strong, but USD1 Continues to Lose Ground.
BNB Smart Chain remains active, processing 17.46M transactions in a single day with 2.08M active addresses, while DeFi TVL has edged higher to nearly $5B.
However, World Liberty Financial’s USD1 is telling a different story.
Its supply on BSC has fallen from over $2.1B at the start of the year to around $1.4B, a decline of nearly one-third in just a few months.
While the broader BSC ecosystem continues to grow, USD1 is moving in the opposite direction, reflecting weaker momentum and declining market confidence.
The contrast is clear: the network is expanding, but not every project is benefiting from that growth.
$BNB $USD1
#CPIInLineFedWatch
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid $BTC $ETH Both the monthly composite CPI and core CPI monthly rates are higher than previous values, clearly reflecting the July rise in oil prices. But this increase was in line with expectations. The market didn't see anything beyond expectations, nor did it see a drop beyond expectations, which means there is no new incremental information. BTC fell immediately after the data was released, indicating that funds are not satisfied with the "in line with expectations" result. In a bear market, positive news is the reason for a rise. Meeting expectations means no good news; without good news, it is bearish. CME interest rate futures show a 42.1% probability of a rate hike in September. 56.3% chance of a rate hike in October. Polymarket shows a 67% chance of no rate hike in September, but still 54% think there will be a rate hike in 2026. The market is no longer pricing in September, but whether there will be further hikes later. Oil prices are still fluctuating between 80 and 90. The Hormuz tension hasn't loosened, inflationary pressures haven't been fully relieved, and CPI meeting expectations doesn't mean everything's fine. What the market wants is a clear signal of cooling. If it didn't come today, then just drop for now. #If July's CPI meets expectations, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings debut in succession. #黄金站上4400美元, demand for safe-haven assets is heating up