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To put it counterintuitively: when a sector's positive news starts to flood the streets—storage shortages, demand doubles, memory prices multiply several times, and institutions collectively call for long-term optimism—that's exactly when I'm most alert. Good news never appears all at the bottom; it always appears together when emotions are hottest and no one wants to miss out. Low-frequency players don't chase this kind of hype. What you rush in isn't the trend, but the sentiment others have calculated to sell to you. Judging the right direction and timing the right are two different things.⏱️ Deadline: August 17, 2026, 11:00
What is Wall Street plotting? The SEC urgently lowered Ethereum options over the weekend, but opened the back door for 3x Bitcoin leverage?
Friend, this weekend, spot prices for $BTC were at $64,000 and $ETH at $1,880. Although the day was stalled, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and major Wall Street exchanges (Nasdaq, Cboe) dropped two shocking deep-water bombs overnight in the underlying battle of "ETF options and derivatives."
These new developments not only directly changed the liquidity rules for the second half of the year, but also maximized the space for the upcoming game between institutions and retail investors. We won't brag or get emotional, using the calmest and most objective data to break down the inside story of these two major derivatives over the weekend in one go.
💣 Shock Bomb 1: Ethereum ETF options have been officially extended by the SEC
Last week, the market was frantically betting on the implementation of spot Ethereum ETF options. However, in an official announcement over the weekend, the SEC formally announced the postponement of the rule changes for BlackRock and Bitwise spot Ethereum ETF options.
Details of the delay: According to the announcement, the approval of BlackRock spot Ethereum ETF options submitted by Nasdaq has been forcibly postponed to November 10, 2026; The approval of Bitwise and Grayscale Ethereum trust options submitted by New York American Exchange has also been postponed to November 11.
What does this indicate? The SEC's intention to leverage the high-frequency arbitrage of Ethereum derivatives or to quickly boost the ETH exchange rate pair through call options has been delayed by the SEC for three months. This has dampened bullish sentiment in the derivatives market. In the short term, ETH is very likely to remain in a high-staked, low-volatility locked position at $1,865 - $1,920, so retail investors should avoid going long at this level with high multipliers.
Shock Bomb 2: Cboe Blitzkrieg! The 3x leverage BTC/ETH ETF has actually entered formal review
While the SEC was throwing cold water on Ethereum options, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe BZX) launched a blatant sneak attack on August 15 in partnership with Volatility Shares—the SEC has officially issued a review notice for "3x leveraged long Bitcoin/Ethereum spot ETFs" and has begun soliciting public comments!
The essence of the data: This is not an ordinary 2x futures strategy (Volatility had already tried 2x before). If these six super-leveraged products containing only 3x Crypto, gold, and crude oil ultimately pass review, it means Wall Street players have an even more terrifying "super nuclear weapon" that can directly smash into spot markets in compliant US stocks.
Real risk point: Many self-media outlets are now hyping this as a huge bull market positive, but as bloggers, you must objectively point out a mathematical trap. This kind of "3x Daily" ETF pursues "3x daily price change," not long-term returns multiplied by 3. Due to severe "volatility decay," if Bitcoin fluctuates sideways at $64,000 for a long time, the net value of this 3x ETF will slowly bleed out on its own. Retail investors buying this long-term are essentially entering and losing their lives.
🛡️ Shock Bomb 3: The Underlying Insider Story of Nasdaq Partnering with CME
In addition to the approval game, Nasdaq also submitted a domineering rule amendment application codenamed SR-ISE-2026-42 over the weekend:
Key point: Nasdaq demands that the SEC grant it a permanent "standardization approval right." As long as the underlying spot trusts of digital commodities (including BTC, ETH, SOL, and even XRP) maintain a global average daily market value above $700 million, Nasdaq "does not need to obtain SEC's separate signature every time" and can directly list their options derivatives in bulk.
Big players' calculations: Although CME (CME) previously filed a review to "suspend Nasdaq Bitcoin options" (with a deadline for submissions before August 24), Nasdaq's move clearly aims to completely sideline the SEC's administrative intervention in future digital asset pricing power.
💡 A small suggestion for independent thinking
After reviewing these top-level weekend insider revelations, you can judge the upcoming market for yourself:
Don't expect ETH to surge in the short term: the option approval extension to November means Ethereum cannot quickly build high-leverage long options in the US spot market. Currently, the on-chain gas fee for ETH is only 2 Gwei, and with slight network inflation, it's much more rational to wait until spot volume truly surpasses $1,920 before considering right-side chases rather than holding the price against the trend at $1,880.
Beware of the big insertion caused by the 3x leverage elephant dancing: Wall Street institutions are increasing the frequency of Bitcoin option positions. With future review of 3x products, the order wall for BTC spot orders will become thinner. Before the $63,800 - $64,800 range is fully broken by volume growth, a derivatives long-short ratio of 1.11 indicates retail investors are still frequently fueling the market. Hold back and reduce leverage; don't use your own flesh and blood to block the mechanical giant of Wall Street's main force reaching 3x power.
In the face of information gaps, maintaining a quiet and unassuming attitude is your greatest trump card.
$SNDK
#BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? #SPCX持股结构曝光, Harvard 13F heavily #标普盈利超预期 positions—why is Wall Street still cautious? GD Culture disclosed that 7,500 BTC held in the first half of the year resulted in an unrealized loss of $211.8 million, accounting for 97.9% of the net loss for the same period. More notably, after the reverse stock split adjustment, the company's number of shares increased to 18.15 times that of the end of last year, with 99.65% coming from cash issuances.
These "BTC treasury stocks" cannot be judged solely by holdings. Shareholders actually bear three layers of risk: BTC volatility, financing costs, and capital dilution. Even if BTC eventually recovers, if the company continues to issue additional shares, the BTC per share may become less and less. Before buying treasury stocks, first calculate the coin content per share, not just the company's total holdings.$OKB OpenRouter sold for 7 billion USD, only 3 years from founding to exit. The founder Alex Atallah was previously a co-founder of OpenSea, with investments from a16z and Sequoia, yielding potential returns of over 30x.
The interesting part of this deal is that the same founder switched from an NFT platform to AI infrastructure and was immediately acquired by a traditional payment giant like Stripe. Similar stories in crypto are still waiting for bull market valuations.
There is no direct impact on $BTC, but the flow of venture capital is very telling: AI middleware can raise 7 billion USD, while crypto-native infrastructure is still being squeezed by macro liquidity. Different tracks, very different outcomes. During the weekend's low liquidity, watch an indicator even more honest than price: open interest (OI). $BTC's OKX contract OI is basically flat around $2.1 billion, with no large overselling or panic reductions, combined with a moderately positive funding rate—indicating that this is neither a powder keg for short squeezes nor the edge of a trampling, but a pool of water with no direction. Prices grinding in a range and OI stagnating often means the real market shift hasn't arrived yet. Data won't play along; during a sideways phase, the best thing to do is wait for it to take the lead. $SNDK surged to 1775, then quickly pulled back. Pre-market trading volume was extremely thin, not driven by large institutional orders. Two core reasons: 1) Sentiment + psychological driving of analyst target prices (real capital logic) 1. Morgan Stanley previously set a target price of $2,250, fully fueling the AI storage supernarrative, with the entire market eyeing this price potential. 2. The core story of the August Investor Day is still brewing: long-term lock-in of 94 billion long-term contracts, a long-term target of 80% gross margin, and large-scale buybacks—the market has repriced it from a cyclical flash storage stock to a growth stock in AI infrastructure. 3. Storage sector overnight peripheral futures rebounded, AI hardware sector sentiment recovered, and a small number of bulls aggressively placed high bids to grab chips before the market opened, pushing quotes straight to 1775. But! Pre-market liquidity is extremely poor; just a few dozen lots can trigger a huge price jump, which doesn't mean many institutions are willing to trade at 1775. 2) Pre-market liquidity flaw (key technically): Before the US stock market opens (in the early morning of the US East Coast), there are few participants and few order placements. Fragmented and limited orders create false highs. Many market software display sporadic trades as pre-market highs, but after the market opens, liquidity returns and prices immediately return to their real range. 👉 1775 is more of a pre-market quote pulse, not a valid consensus transaction price. Why is it so hard to hold this 1775 level, and what does it mean for the stock price? ✅ Bullish signal: The emotional cap on funds has been raised to this level, and the market dares to imagine even higherAfter the latest 13F data for SPCX was released, what really matters is not "who bought it," but who is holding heavy positions. Harvard Management Company disclosed it holds about 12.94 million shares of SPCX, which is about $2.2 billion on a disclosure basis, accounting for more than half of its disclosed U.S. stock assets, making it Harvard's largest public stock holding directly. What's even more interesting about Benzinga is that institutional funds are entering quickly. The latest data shows that several institutions have disclosed their SPCX positions, with Hyperion alone holding about 1.177 million shares. Holdings Channel means the market is no longer trading just "Musk + rockets," but rather the combined stories of SpaceX, Starlink, and AI computing power. Here comes the real question: Is Harvard betting early on the next super asset, or has SPCX's valuation already overdrawn the future? This may be the biggest highlight of SPCX going forward.今天Hyperliquid上最值得关注的两组数字，来自BTC空头持仓榜前两位。他们合计持有约2.27亿美元的空头头寸，但各自的处境和策略截然不同。 榜一空头：亏损刚抹平，危险也回来了 这位持仓榜第一的空头，过去11天的操作很不容易： 自8月5日开空以来，经历了30次减仓 累计平掉1,490枚BTC 每次减仓都录得亏损，合计亏损+手续费约99.99万美元 近100万的实际亏损后，当前持有的2,000枚BTC空单（1.262亿美元）终于带来了98.39万美元的浮盈——账面盈利刚好覆盖此前的损失。 但危险在于：他的强平均价是63,577.86美元，距离当前价格只有约0.76%。BTC只需要反弹不到1%，这个刚刚回本的账户就会面临清算。 接近100万美元的亏损、一个月的时间、30次减仓——刚刚回到起点，但清算线就贴在脚下。除非价格继续下跌，否则这个位置几乎没有犯错的余地。 榜二空头：正在加码，而不是修复 与榜一的防守姿态不同，榜二空头的操作更加主动： 今天在62,858-63,175美元区间加空350枚BTC（约2,203万美元） 持仓从1,250枚增至1,600枚，空单价值约1.01亿美元 $BTC BTC trading volume shrinks to a multi-month low; Harvard 13F reveals heavy SPCX holdings—Monday morning report, August 17
Good morning, brothers, a new week has begun. The weekend two-day market can be summed up in one word: dull.
BTC continued to move sideways over the weekend, with prices repeatedly tuggling between $62,600 and $63,300. On Monday morning, Bitcoin was trading around $63,000. ETH consolidated in tandem, while SOL continued to move sideways on shrinking volume. Liquidity tightened over the weekend, volatility was compressed to the extreme, and the entire network was in a typical "low volatility bottoming out" phase.
📊 Market data
· BTC: Current price around $62,995, down 0.24% in 24 hours. It has been consolidating in the $62,500-$66,000 range over the past few weeks.
· ETH: Current price around $1,900, trading in a consolidation.
· SOL: Current price around $75.2, consolidating on reduced volume, key support between $73.5-74.
📉 Core Topic 1: BTC trading volume shrinks to multi-month lows
The latest report from 10x Research points out that Bitcoin trading volume has shrunk significantly to just a fraction of what it was after the U.S. president's inauguration and the peak of last October's flash crash. Implied volatility has dropped to lows, which are rare except during the summer off-season. Prices have entered their narrowest range in months.
Meanwhile, ETF inflows remain weak, with stablecoins continuously flowing out of the crypto market. Strategy, once one of the most stable buyers in the market, has been a seller for four consecutive weeks. On the spot side, there is a lack of buying support; mainstream exchanges' seven-day average spot trading volume fell from nearly $9 billion at the end of June to below $4 billion on August 12, a decline of about 55%.
Last week, Bitcoin ETF trading volume hit the second lowest level since October 2024. Funds are flowing in, but trading willingness is extremely low, indicating that large funds are also cautious—afraid to buy and unwilling to sell.
📰 Core Topic 2: SPCX's shareholding structure revealed, Harvard's 13F heavily invested in SpaceX
Another noteworthy piece of news over the weekend came from the traditional financial sector.
The latest disclosure of U.S. stock institutional holdings (13F) shows that the Harvard University Endowment Fund holds about 12.9351 million shares of SpaceX, with a market value of about $2.21 billion. This holding accounts for more than half of Harvard Management's disclosed U.S. stock portfolio (about $4.3 billion), making it the fund's largest public holdings in U.S. stocks.
Harvard Management Company's total assets are about $57 billion, while SpaceX's $2.2 billion holdings account for about 3.8% of its total assets. In terms of heavy holdings, SpaceX ranks first with $2.21 billion; TSMC is second with $350 million; Amazon is $234 million; Cerebras Systems is $239 million; Alphabet is $165 million; Nvidia is $158 million.
Notably, Harvard's 13F filing also discloses holdings in Bitcoin and gold. As one of the world's top endowment funds, Harvard allocates both SpaceX and Bitcoin in its U.S. stock portfolio, indicating that top institutions are not entirely willing to allocate to alternative assets—they are just leaning more toward long-term holding rather than short-term trading.
Insights for the crypto market: As a star asset in the primary market, SpaceX's listing expectations attracted a large amount of institutional capital. Harvard made substantial profits in this round of investment. This at least shows one thing—top institutions have not stopped seeking high-growth assets; capital flows have temporarily shifted from "public market Bitcoin ETFs" to "primary market SpaceX."
💥 Liquidation data
In the past 24 hours, total margin liquidations across the network amounted to $79.7581 million, with long positions $51.47 million and short positions $28.28 million. A total of 50,004 people worldwide were liquidated. Long liquidations far exceed short positions, indicating that long leverage is being cleared.
💡 Summary
BTC trading volume has shrunk to a multi-month low, implied volatility is at a rare low, and the market is currently in a typical "volume grinding bottom" phase. The direction hasn't been decided yet, so keep an eye on and move less, don't let short-term fluctuations sway your rhythm. If you want to trade, take a light position at the lower boundary of the range (62,500-62,800) and test long; reduce at the upper boundary (64,000-64,500).
The biggest highlights of the week:
1. Can trading volume recover: Currently at a multi-month low, increased volume may indicate direction selection
2. Can ETF funds continue to flow in: Last week, net inflows totaled $1.1 billion, but trading volume hit the second-lowest level in history—a divergence that requires observation
Brothers, how are you planning to position yourself this week? Let's talk in the comments. 👇 #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? #SPCX持股结构曝光, Harvard 13F heavy positions#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession, $ETH $BTC #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound?
This trading volume is making me drowsy!
BTC trading volume shrank as if no one was playing, and the price range narrowed to its lowest point in months. The bulls were playing dead, the bears were not making a move, and the whole market was waiting for the ETF money to save the day.
But can ETFs really save the situation? In July, BTC ETF net inflows accounted for only 0.34% of the fund's total size, while ETH made up 3.19%.
There is money, but it all goes to Ethereum. And don't forget, right now BTC ETF funds flow into three groups: hedge funds, registered investment advisors, and long-term institutions. Hedge funds are quick to come in and out, coming in today and leaving tomorrow—they're not here to provide a bottom. Long-term institutions that can truly support the bottom? They're still watching and waiting.
What's even more painful is that the once most stable buyer strategy has been selling coins for four consecutive weeks. Even the most stubborn players are selling their shares—how can retail investors dare to rush in?
To be honest, ETF buying is only a matter of time, but can you expect it to immediately boost BTC? You're overthinking it. With trading volume shrinking to this extent, either the market will collapse forever, or a big bullish or bearish candlestick will immediately turn the market around.
I haven't moved my position, hold onto the spot, and don't add or cut losses. Wait until volume is released before dealing with it. In a shrinking volume market, chasing rises and selling on dips is the easiest way to get proven wrong from both sides.
Do you think this wave of shrinking volume is a big move or is the market really cooling off? Debate in the comments!The latest Miner Weekly data for August 17 is out.
The actual operating hashrate of listed Bitcoin mining companies was 368.3 EH/s in Q4 2025, dropping to 319 EH/s by Q2 2026, a decrease of 13.4%.
During the same period, Bitcoin's total network hash rate dropped by only 10.6%, with listed mining companies declining much faster than the overall network.
If you exclude Bitdeer, which is still expanding, the remaining mining companies' declines are even more dramatic—from 324.6 EH/s to 255.9 EH/s, a 21.2% drop in half a year.
These companies are not mining anymore, so what are they doing? In the second quarter of this year, Core Scientific's data center hosting revenue was $136.7 million, while Bitcoin mining revenue was only $27.5 million. Hosting revenue is five times that of mining. TeraWulf is similar: AI high-performance computing rental income is $31.9 million, mining revenue is $12.8 million.
Riot Platforms and Bitdeer are still relying on mining, but that's a minority. Most listed mining companies no longer focus on mining Bitcoin, but rather leasing electricity and space to AI companies.
Miners' holdings are also declining in tandem. On August 15, the Bitcoin balance in miners' wallets dropped to 1,191,900, the lowest point since May 31. That's 885 fewer than a week ago. Puell Multiple at 0.75, not in the extremely undervalued range. Miners are still selling, but the selling speed isn't fast—it's not panic selling.
Miners' transition to AI is not a short-term phenomenon. Hashrate may continue to decline. For BTC's price, the short-term impact is ongoing seller pressure; In the long run, if hash power continues to drain, network security and market confidence will be affected. But miners have found a more profitable business than mining, and it won't return in the short term.
$BTC In the second quarter, Swiss banking giant UBS increased its call option exposure for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT from 80,000 underlying shares at the end of March to 1.95 million by June 30.
It has grown more than 24 times.
Direct holdings of IBIT shares also increased by 12% to 407,890 shares, valued at about $13.6 million. Put option exposure, however, dropped by about 53%.
A Swiss bank with a 160-year history is betting heavily on BTC price increases through the options market. It's not about buying spot ETFs to capitalize on gains, but about using options leverage to amplify exposure.
At the same time, Paul Tudor Jones's Tudor Investment also filed a 13F filing with the SEC, holding 688,529 shares of IBIT as of June 30, an increase of 18.9% over the previous quarter.
One bank increased its position with 24x options, while another hedge fund increased its holdings by 18% in spot trading. Two sums of money, two tools, but the same direction. The 63,000 level has been sideways for so long, with sellers consuming and buyers waiting. But institutions like UBS don't measure their allocation cycles by day, but quarterly. Their positions have already been adjusted.
$BTC Bitcoin's 7-day implied volatility fell below the 30% mark, dropping to 25%.
It's similar to the low-volatility period in the summer of 2023.
After that low volatility in the summer of 2023, BTC experienced a doubling rally in the following months.
Low implied volatility means options are cheap. BIT analysts proposed a spot alternative strategy—selling part of the Bitcoin spot and using bull market bull market calls or directly buying call options as substitutes. The maximum loss is limited to option premiums, and the released funds can earn additional interest.
The logic of this strategy is: if the price continues to move sideways or fall, the loss is the option premium, not the principal. If the price breaks upward, the leverage on call options yields much higher returns than holding spot positions. Strategy has been selling for four consecutive weeks, with UBS and Tudor buying call options. On one hand, they are reducing positions; on the other, they are using options to increase leverage. Both sides do different things at the same price.
The turning point is just around the corner. Two signals appear simultaneously—implied volatility hitting historic lows, and top institutions sharply increasing their bullish positions in options. Both events occurred simultaneously in the summer of 2023, when BTC was still above 20,000 $BTC Sing Tao Financial News released a brief this morning stating that Bitcoin has just climbed back above $63,000, up 0.19% intraday.
The price has rebounded from around 62,500 on August 14.
But if you only look at the price, you're missing something happening—in the past 24 hours, only $7.44 million in leveraged positions were cleared across the market, with bears having twice as many as the bulls. Bitcoin itself liquidated $3.08 million, of which shorts accounted for 2.46 million, or 80%. Bears are bleeding, bulls aren't chasing, both sides are pulling back, but the direction is indeed shifting toward the bulls. Prices have risen, volume hasn't followed, but bears are indeed retreating.
The Panic and Greed Index fell back to 31, still in the "fear" range. Market sentiment was pessimistic, but prices didn't fall either. After nearly a month of sideways trading, buyers were weak, and sellers didn't sell. Both sides were waiting for direction, waiting for the catalyst to break the deadlock.
$BTC 10x Research published an analysis today, stating that Bitcoin's trading volume has shrunk significantly to well below its historical peak, with the price entering its narrowest volatility range in months.
They made a judgment—historically, this pattern usually signals directional breakthroughs are imminent.
The implied volatility of the options market has dropped to an unusually low level, ETF inflows remain sluggish, and stablecoins are also seeing ongoing net outflows. These signals are all telling one thing: the market is compressing, funds are watching, and the direction is being chosen quickly.
The most noteworthy aspect is MicroStrategy's shift in attitude. Data from 10x Research shows that the company has been net selling for four consecutive weeks. More specific data comes from Zhitong Finance—in the past two weeks, MicroStrategy has sold about 3,327 Bitcoins.
CEO Phong Le predicted on X that the crypto market would rebound in autumn, but the company was quietly selling off. They talk big, but sell with their hands. This inconsistency is more worth pondering than any candlestick chart. Wall Street people call this "inconsistency between words and actions"—to put it plainly—they themselves might not be sure.
$BTC 华盛顿那边CLARITY法案被推到了9月之后，参议院进入休会期没有推进立法。
SEC原定8月14日开的加密监管规则会议被突然取消了。
委员们本来要讨论Reg Crypto提案，包括企业如何通过代币融资、发行数字资产后如何退出SEC监管。结果会没了，连重新安排的日期都没给。SEC把取消原因归为“日程冲突”，但时间点卡在CLARITY法案休会之后，市场很难不往坏处想。两条路同时堵住了。
比特币从8月初的65,000跌到了62,500，现在在63,000附近稳住。63,000这个位置能稳住，很大程度上是因为市场还在等监管这边出一个明确的方向。贝莱德、富达、富兰克林邓普顿这几个月一直在买，买的不是当下的价格，是监管落地之后的预期。如果CLARITY法案和SEC的规则制定继续卡着，63,000这个位置可能还会继续磨，甚至再往下走一段。$BTC The continuous inflow of $ETH ETF funds is currently the strongest support logic.
However, the price has yet to show strong momentum, indicating that on-exchange trading and leveraged funds are not convinced or are waiting for a clearer breakout signal.
Expansion and privacy advancements are "slow variables."
They determine ETH's competitiveness three years from now but hardly explain why it rises or falls tomorrow.
So the current ETH is more like:
• Has mid-to-long-term allocation logic (ETF + technical roadmap)
• Lacks explosive independent momentum in the short term
Before the market has a clear direction, ETH will most likely continue to follow BTC's fluctuations, with little chance of an independent main rally.
In short
Institutions are buying, retail investors are waiting, and the price is consolidating.
The real opportunity often appears when the consolidation wears down most people's patience. This morning, reviewing the market data of the three storage giants revealed the full trajectory of this collective rally
When SanDisk released its daily investor results and buyback plans, what was initially a single positive for a single asset sparked a wave of long buying across the entire storage sector, with SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Micron all breaking out of their consolidation range and starting to rally.
$SNDK Current price at 1726.80 leads the market, with a single-day high of 1775.75. Volume has broken through the long-standing consolidation 1640 level. MACD is now open for bulls, clearly the leading stock being attacked by capital. As long as the 1690 breakout support holds, the uptrend will not end easily; $SKHYNIX 1200 price has steadily followed the pace, surging to 1205 with a slight pause. Volume is gradual without overdraw, and the trend is more steady. $MU 992.67 caught up behind the lag, just breaking through the consolidation range. The MACD golden cross is just forming, and the bullish momentum has not fully been released.
The three companies diverged in trend but moved in unison: the leader expanded first, while the other two followed up in succession, which is also the most typical feature of the sector. In contrast, not long ago they hesitated to invest near 980 SanDisk, but now, with a surge widening the gap, it's hard not to feel a bit disappointed.
Currently, all three stocks are in the profit-taking phase after breakouts. Don't chase intraday highs to accelerate the rally; just focus on their respective support levels: SanDisk is focusing on the 1690 gain/loss, Hynix holds the 1180 support, and Micron uses 980 as the dividing line between bulls and bears. Since the sector trend has already broken out, as long as it doesn't fall back into the previous long-term consolidation range, the market holding this AI main line still has room to continue. Patiently holding and observing the momentum after the breakout is much safer than chasing the rally.According to the latest data from Miner Weekly published by BlockBridge Consulting, the actual operating hashrate of listed Bitcoin mining companies dropped from 368.3 EH/s in Q4 2025 to 319 EH/s in Q2 2026, a decrease of 13.4% in half a year. During the same period, the average hash rate across the Bitcoin network dropped by only 10.6%. The slowdown for listed mining companies is much faster than for the entire network.
If you exclude Bitdeer, which is still expanding, the remaining mining companies saw even more dramatic price cuts—dropping from 324.6 EH/s to 255.9 EH/s, a 21.2% drop in half a year.
These companies are not mining, so what are they doing? In the second quarter of this year, Core Scientific's data center hosting revenue was $136.7 million, while its core Bitcoin mining revenue was only $27.5 million. Hosting revenue is five times that of mining. TeraWulf is the same: AI high-performance computing rental income is $31.9 million, mining revenue is $12.8 million. Riot Platforms and Bitdeer still rely heavily on mining, but they are already a minority.
Miner holdings are declining in tandem. On August 15, the Bitcoin balance in miners' wallets dropped to 1.1919 million, the lowest since May 31. CoinShares estimates that by the end of 2026, AI and high-performance computing businesses could contribute 70% of the revenue to listed mining companies.
Most listed mining companies' main business is no longer mining Bitcoin, but renting electricity and space to AI companies. Mining is shifting from a Bitcoin mining industry to one renting computing power to AI companies. This directly impacts BTC through persistent seller pressure; in the long run, if computing power continues to drain, network security and market confidence will be affected. But miners have found a more profitable business than mining, and it won't return in the short term $BTC Ethereum ETFs are outperforming Bitcoin ETFs, and the gap is significant.
DWF Labs posted data on X. In June, net outflows from Ethereum ETFs accounted for 4.65% of fund size, while Bitcoin ETFs accounted for 8.09%. In July, Ethereum ETF net inflows accounted for 3.19% of fund size, while Bitcoin ETFs only made up 0.34%. The former is 9.4 times higher than the latter. In May, institutions also generally showed little interest in Ethereum, but the trend began to reverse in recent weeks.
Another set of data also supports this trend. As of the week ending August 17, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $385.2 million, which is 128 times the outflow from Ethereum ETFs. Fidelity's FBTC redeemed $153 million in just one week, Grayscale's GBTC saw $88.3 million, and BlackRock's IBIT saw $78.96 million. Interestingly, Grayscale's low-fee Bitcoin Mini Trust actually attracted 75.98 million in inflows—not because institutions are pulling out entirely, but rather moving from expensive shares to cheaper ones.
The Bitcoin spot ETF closed at $63,044 over the weekend, with a 24-hour fluctuation range of 62,670 to 63,310. Grayscale's GBTC is making money, but Grayscale's Mini Trust is making money, BlackRock's IBIT is making money, but BlackRock's ETHA is still moving in. Same issuer, two products, two directions.
Funds are moving from expensive products to cheaper ones, and from BTC ETFs to ETH ETFs. Market news on August 17 shows that Ethereum ETFs have outperformed Bitcoin ETFs in capital inflows for two consecutive months. Bitcoin ETF outflows may continue for some time until the regulatory framework becomes clearer $BTC 世界黄金协会的CEO说比特币会归零，CZ的回应很有意思。
David Tait在共识大会迈阿密站上说：“我个人认为，比特币的价值将归零。”但他紧接着说了一句让两边都尴尬的话：“投资组合中有黄金的人也应该持有比特币，而持有比特币的人则一定要配置黄金。因为这两种资产在危机时期能够相互平衡。”
CZ的回应更值得玩味。他说过去很多人对加密货币做出过错误判断，理解这个领域需要时间，但他不能百分之百确定自己是对的，毕竟人人都会犯错。一个行业里最有话语权的人之一，承认自己也会犯错，这句话本身比任何价格分析都更接近真实的市场状态。
比特币在63,000附近徘徊，世界黄金协会的崩溃预言正在被市场考验。泰特5月说这话的时候BTC还在77,500左右，自那以来跌了大约19%。同一天韩国市场录得了-0.28%的反向泡菜溢价。韩国散户在折价卖。
黄金涨了，BTC没跌，也没涨。63,000这个位置，黄金协会的CEO喊归零，CZ说他会犯错，两个人都站在各自的位置上说了实话。市场在这个价格上暂时停住了，等下一波方向。$BTC I believe the main trend in the crypto market going forward will most likely rotate from BTC to assets like ETH, rather than just waiting in BTC's low volatility. The most direct basis for this judgment is where the money flows. Look at the July data: the net inflow ratio of ETH spot ETFs was surprisingly 9.4 times that of BTC. This shows that institutions' appetite has changed and they no longer focus solely on Bitcoin, the "old bread." Although BTC looks lifeless and trading volume has shrunk sharply, But my trader friends around me have recently been discussing ETH's catch-up logic and their sentiment is noticeably more lively. However, I haven't completely sold out BTC, since UBS was still increasing its IBIT call options in Q2. The big institutions' "openly building the plank road while secretly moving through the old garrison" shows they are still lying in wait. So my current strategy is: shift 60% of my short-term position to ETH to seek excess returns. The remaining 40% of BTC holdings remain untouched, treated as defensive and waiting for the next breakout signal. For regular players, now is the time to avoid losing patience in the sideways consolidation of Da Bing and Er Bing. Switching by closely monitoring the flow of funds may be much smarter than holding onto a single movement. #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? On-chain asset recovery is evolving from single-chain blockade to a multi-chain cat-and-mouse game. In the KelpDAO attack, after about $71 million worth of ETH-related funds on Arbitrum were frozen, the attacker did not sit idly by but quickly changed tactics: using THORChain to transfer part of the stolen funds from Ethereum to Bitcoin. It has been confirmed that about $1.5 million has been moved via $BTC, and another $78,000 has been transferred via the privacy tool Umbra. This trend is worth careful consideration. In the past, after hackers succeeded, common tactics involved mixing coins, cross-chaining, and changing addresses, but mostly within the EVM ecosystem. This time, the difference lies in the attacker actively transferring funds to a network with almost no freezing capability. Although DeFi in the ETH ecosystem is booming, stablecoin issuers, cross-chain bridges, and project teams all hold certain freezing rights. The blacklist mechanism severely reduces the liquidity of illicit funds—the $71 million freeze is a prime example. BTC lacks these switches; once funds enter the Bitcoin network, on-chain governance basically cannot reach out. Therefore, BTC can be seen as the "final stop" in the hacker money laundering chain: first quickly monetizing and dispersing within the $ETH ecosystem, then using decentralized cross-chain protocols like THORChain to achieve interchain jumps, interspersing privacy tools like Umbra to distract attention, and finally depositing value into Bitcoin, a pool no one can freeze. Every step is stepped on$SNDK 在刚刚突然向上大涨，插爆了很多的空头。 但是，我并不认为这种趋势是可以长期维持的。 也就是说，我是认为它会面临一个回调的。 我认为会回调，有两方面的因素吧。 一方面是现在日元加息，对美股的流动性是造成了很大的影响，另一方面是我对合约数据的分析，在加密中，这种插针往往意味着即将或者已经到了高点。 —————————————————— 我们先讲日元加息。 日元加息其实是美股的一个灰犀牛，这个因素大家都知道，但是一直没有多少人在重视。 长期以来，由于日元和美元之间的利率差，海量的日元被换成美元去美国赚利差。 这就为美国提供了巨额的流动性，也是美股能够维持长牛的重要原因之一。 但是，现在随着日本央行的加息，美元套利规模正在慢慢减小。 这也就意味着，美国的流动性是在缓慢下降的。 这种缓慢下降一般有两个临界点，第一个临界点是刚开始，第二个临界点是利率差缩小到接近无利可图的地步。 目前来看，只要日元再加息一次，目前主流的套利方式将会无利可图。 这个点将是临界点，一旦套利无利可图的时候，市场就不会冒着风险继续去做这种事。 到时候，美国的流动性可能会大幅度收紧，美股可能会迎来一轮新的暴跌。 The SEC meeting was canceled, signaling not the implementation of rules, but the suspension of the process!
To start with the conclusion: the SEC public meeting originally scheduled for August 14 to discuss "Regulation Crypto Assets" was canceled. The agenda originally focused only on whether to issue rule proposals, not the rules taking effect, nor issuing new compliance passes to project teams.
Therefore, this news for $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB seems more like a regulatory timeline being pushed back, rather than a policy reversal. CoinDesk stated that the originally planned Reg Crypto rules and innovation exemption were not advanced. Claims about the impact of the CLARITY Act come from insiders, and the SEC's cancellation notice did not explain the reason.
In practice, regulatory news follows this chain: meeting agenda→ proposed rules→ public comment→ final rules → take effect. This time, the meeting only reached "cancellation," with subsequent focus on the SEC.gov new meeting date, formal proposal, comment period, and final text. For project issuance, fundraising, and transaction arrangements, do not treat rumored exemptions or bill negotiations as the current safe haven.At the end of the year, Bitcoin Magazine's parent company Nakamoto had a 60 million USDT Bitcoin collateral loan maturing on December 4. As of June 30, it held 4,467 BTC (about $261 million), of which 3,805 had been staked to Kraken, and only 662 unentitled, about $38.7 million; Adding $19.1 million in cash, the total cash plus free BTC was about $57.8 million, slightly below the maturing principal. However, the company disclosed that staked BTC can be sold directly at maturity to repay debt, so this is not a simple funding gap. Nakamoto also assesses that its current liquidity is sufficient to cover cash needs for the next year.
The real highlight is that the amount of coins held on paper and the freely transferable reserves are not the same thing. Those 3,805 tokens are bound by loan contracts and cannot be redeployed at any time like unsecured BTC—this is precisely why the distinction between "total holdings" and "unsecured BTC" is necessary.
In June, the company raised about $48 million by selling about 600 BTC and disposing of some derivative positions, including $45 million repaid to Kraken, reducing loans from $210 million to $165 million, and extending $105 million to June next year. This move effectively eased near-term maturity pressure—the December maturity dropped from $105 million to $60 million.The era of vertical expansion on $SNDK is officially behind us. Heavy with a 99%+ decline off top valuations, continuous token unlocks continue to overwhelm secondary market bids before momentum can build.
In stark contrast to $BICO,$BEAT, $ALLO,$KAITO, and $APR—which all absorbed fresh liquidity to execute solid turnaround runs,$SNDK fails to construct a support floor or draw in organic buyers. Without clear accumulation footprints, betting on a turnaround is pure speculation.
$SNDK
#CryptoRevenueVsBTC $BTC Looking at recent data from Woofun-AI, the Bitcoin market now harbors a leverage minefield of up to $480.1 million. Once the key support price level fails, large-scale liquidations will be triggered one after another. Currently, BTC prices have been oscillating around $62,941. While the market seems calm, the bulls and bears are locked in a fierce battle behind the scenes. Whether the market surges or crashes, chain forced liquidations amplify market volatility, and the entire derivatives market is now at a sensitive juncture on the verge of eruption
From the perspective of position structure, the divergence between bulls and bears in the market is very obvious; the offshore market and CME Group's funding strategies are completely different directions.
On the offshore side, perpetual contracts currently have positive funding rates. If the coin price falls, long sellers will be forced to close their positions under pressure, which in turn turns into selling pressure from sell-offs
In contrast, CME Group has leveraged funds holding a large short position. This is actually a potential bullish signal: as soon as the price starts to rise, these bears will panic to buy back chips and close out their positions, while short covering will push the price even higher, creating a wave of upward momentum
Another detail: the number of open interest contracts has declined and funding rates have been adjusting back and forth, both indicating that the market has been actively reducing leverage recently. However, CME Group's weekly position data is delayed by 4 days, and it also includes complex trades like hedging and basis arbitrage, making it impossible to accurately judge the true intent behind each order. Overall, offshore market rates show that many bulls are gradually reducing positions to avoid risk; But CME Group's data shows that short positions are quietly accumulating, and the two camps' risk stances are now completely opposite
Looking at the flow of funds in spot ETFs, we can see the bigger fundamentals behind this contest. From August 3 to August 14, the ETF's cumulative net inflow reached $480.1 million. Although buying momentum has slowed recently, the overall trend of inflows throughout the month has not reversed. Large institutional funds are still buying on dips, and the medium- to long-term buying foundation is very solid, which is also a key factor for future market uptrends
How the market moves next essentially depends on which side of the bulls or bears will be the first to lose their chance to withstand the liquidation
If spot buying can't keep up, ETF buying enthusiasm continues to cool and offshore long positions continue to reduce positions, putting the coin price at risk of falling further;
But conversely, once spot and ETF buying momentum regains momentum and prices rise slightly, CME Group's accumulated short positions will face a stop-loss wave. The buying force from collective short closing could very likely trigger a round of rally. Therefore, the direction of the market must be the resonance of price movement, spot activity, and changes in contract holdings; no single indicator can predict the outcome
In summary, the market is currently in a very delicate balance stage. A 480 million leveraged market means that a breakout would trigger large-scale liquidations. But at present, a short-term price fluctuation of 1-2% is not enough to trigger a crash. What truly triggers a major rally will be when spot funds follow the trend after the price breaks through key levels
From the current market perspective, the accumulation of short positions has planted the hidden risk of short squeeze and rally, and combined with the institutional base of medium- to long-term ETF inflows, a breakout upward is actually more cost-effective. Right now, both bulls and bears face the risk of being liquidated first, and the market is waiting for this balance to be broken
#BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? [Product Watch | BTC can be paid directly, payee receives USDC]
The Breez SDK supports sending USDC/USDT directly from users' BTC balances, covering 30+ blockchain networks.
Users do not need to hold stablecoins in advance; the SDK can process conversion and cross-chain payment paths based on the target address and network.
What matters most about this is not actually "supporting more than 30 chains."
Instead, payment processes are shifting from "asset- and chain-driven" to "intent-driven."
Past:
What coins do I have?
Which chain is the other party on?
How do I cross chains?
In the future, it may become:
I'm going to pay $100 for this address.
As for how BTC is converted to USDC and which chain is ultimately settled, wallets handle this in the backend.
Breez's design documentation also clearly emphasizes a unified sending point, allowing users to focus on the recipient and amount rather than the payment standard.
If this experience becomes mainstream, competition for wallets may come from:
"How many chains do you support?"
Becomes:
"How many chains do users still need to understand?"
This is the change I think is more worth paying attention to. In the past couple of days, the Chinese-speaking community has been flooded with an animation called "Niu Lai." The poster has an artistic ink wash style, but the main film is a laggy "4399 quality" with mold slipping; There are only two main creators—the director and his mother, who used to be a renovation company; In the first ten days of release, the box office was only a few thousand yuan, but because it was "too abstract," it suddenly went viral across the internet. Theaters added screenings, box office hits several million, and meme coins with the same name also stirred up excitement on BSC. This matter is actually quite interesting. It didn't become popular because it was "good," but because it was "absurd enough and enough to participate." The stark contrast between the poster and the main film makes people want to take screenshots and complain; The plot is so abstract that anyone can play with memes; Plus, the word "Niu Lai" sounds like "Niu Shi Lai," which directly struck a chord with some people. Social media loves this kind of high-emotion, highly interactive content—the complaint itself becomes fuel for spreading, turning people from viewers into participants in secondary creations. Once the hype picks up, offline check-ins and online discussions feed each other, forming a complete closed loop. On-chain response is equally fast. After attention spillover, tokens of the same name quickly appeared, trading was active, and turnover was high. But ultimately, this is a typical emotion-driven narrative—high volatility, short cycles, no real use cases, and high risk. Last year, most popular memes that rose to fame or political narratives eventually experienced significant pullbacks. Popularity comes quickly, but it often fades just as fast. 华尔街在等一声钟响：Anthropic估值2万亿，史上最大IPO，10月挂牌，SpaceX的1.77万亿纪录才保持3个月。5年走完苹果40年的路，跟加密有关？
数据多炸：Q2营收115亿刀同比14倍，首录正营业利润5.59亿。年化收入18个月10亿冲到470亿。估值更野——按2028年预测营收1900-2000亿定价，拿没发生的报表给你估值。
增长引擎是Claude Code，年化140亿。企业级LLM支出占40%（OpenAI 27%），编程细分占54%。不是概念股，是真金白银按token结算堆的。
但2万亿靠800%年增速假设撑起，SpaceX上市两月就暴跌38%，上市即巅峰。
对加密双重影响：10月前后风险资金被抽走，流动性更紧；但2万亿若成功，等于重新给风险资产定锚，利好$BTC 。
Anthropic是今年最值得围观的黑天鹅，上市那天全球风险资产定价逻辑都会抖三抖。10月前后盯流动性。$SPCX #Anthropic #美股The Next Shock Could Hit ETH Differently ⚠️
The early-August carry trade unwind pressured both $BTC and $ETH—but their leverage structures are not the same.
$BTC is heavily driven by futures and institutional positioning, so deleveraging can often happen quickly and relatively orderly.
$ETH has another layer of risk: DeFi leverage, liquidations, and on-chain borrowing.
That means a sharp ETH decline could create a feedback loop:
📉 Price falls
→ ⚠️ Collateral gets stressed
→ 🔥 Liquidations increase
→ 📉 More selling pressure
That’s why I’m not watching the $ETH chart alone.
Keep an eye on TVL, funding rates, open interest, and on-chain activity.
The next major move won’t just be about price.
It will be about where the leverage is hiding. 👀
#BTCVolumeDriesUp #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SPCXOwnershipRevealed #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound?
1. Real-time data
$BTC current price is 62,900, with 24-hour spot turnover only $26.6 billion, a significant drop from the 90-day average volume; US BTC spot ETFs have seen net outflows for several consecutive days, with a total of 885 BTC outflows in a single day. Strategy continues to reduce holdings to hedge a small amount of institutional buying, with insufficient capital absorption. The 30-year US Treasury yield is volatile at high levels, and the appeal of non-yielding crypto assets is weak.
2. Core logic
Shrinking trading volume indicates a wait-and-see wait-and-see situation, with retail and speculative funds exiting; Whether ETF funds can recover mainly depends on two key points: cooling CPI inflation and falling US Treasury yields. Currently, inflation is highly sticky, rate cut expectations have been delayed, and institutions continue to reduce allocations to high-risk assets; Combined with corporate treasuries continuously selling $BTC, sustained large buying is unlikely in the short term.
3. Personal Views
With trading volume sluggish, the market fluctuated within a narrow range; ETF funds did not hold heavy positions until signs of stabilization appeared. Patiently waiting for inflation data to weaken and ETFs shifting from outflows to net inflows, then increasing positions, with a focus on light positions and a wait-and-see approach at this stage.
These represent only personal views and do not constitute investment advice$SNDK 当前交易的核心并非“存储会不会涨价”，而是“商业模式的范式转移”。 市场正在为其从“高波动的周期股”向“高确定性的成长股”的重估进行定价，核心逻辑是长期协议（LTA） 能否将短期的异常高利润（如Q4的峰值）转化为2027财年及以后的可持续盈利。
市场当前定价的核心逻辑
投资者日大涨后，股价已部分计入以下三大预期：
- 从“赚涨价的钱”到“赚长约的钱”：市场相信新型LTA能打破“价涨量增、价跌亏损”的魔咒。闪迪已与8家头部客户签署总额约940亿美元的长约，覆盖2027年约50%、2028年约三分之二的出货量。
- 高利润率的可持续性：市场开始相信其80%的毛利率目标并非昙花一现。在极端压力测试下（现货价暴跌），若长约覆盖率达60%-80%，其毛利率仍可维持在80%以上。
- 估值体系的重估：不再按周期股给低估值，而是向高壁垒的成长股靠拢。部分机构将其FY27/FY28每股收益预期上调至243/272美元（甚至更高）。
下一份财报的“验证清单”
要判断是否还有上修空间，财报需重点验证 “长约的兑现度” 与 “利润率的稳定性”：
- 验证长约的“含金量”（关键）
- 看预付款与担保：关注“客户预付款”和“金融担保”金额是否持续增加。目前已有25亿美元预付款和超160亿美元担保到位，这是锁定未来收入的硬证据。
- 看履约比例：确认长约覆盖的出货量占比是否达到指引的50%左右，证明公司确实在按计划切换商业模式。
- 验证盈利能力的“韧性”
- 看毛利率趋势：如果毛利率在高位（如70%+）仍能环比提升，说明成本控制和产品结构优化有效，而非单纯依赖现货涨价。
- 看自由现金流：关注调整后自由现金流利润率是否向50%的目标迈进，这是高利润真实性的最终体现。
- 验证AI需求的“增量”
- 看HBF进展：关注高带宽闪存（HBF）的送样与订单情况。若能成功切入AI推理市场，将打开新的增长曲线。
风险提示：周期反转的“达摩克利斯之剑”
尽管长约提供了保护，但股价已处于高位，需警惕以下风险导致的剧烈波动：
- 产能冲击：若三星、SK海力士等巨头大幅增产，可能导致现货价快速下跌，侵蚀非长约部分的利润。
- 长约“失效”风险：虽然有金融担保，但在极端熊市下，仍需观察客户是否会选择违约（支付违约金）来换取更低的现货市场价格。
，$SNDK 的上涨逻辑已从“炒涨价”进化为“炒确定性”。只要后续财报能持续证明长约在带来真实的现金流和利润，且毛利率不下滑，市场的重估就会继续；反之，若长约兑现不及预期或行业产能过剩，当前的高估值将面临较大回调压力。ETF INFLOWS: $500M+
BTC PRICE: $63K 📉
WHO'S SELLING?
I'll tell you who.
Institutions are buying spot BTC with one hand...
And shorting futures with the other.
It's called a "Basis Trade".
They get 8% yield. We get chop.
Money is entering crypto.
But it's not buying price up.
It's buying volatility.
*The Setup:*
📍 $61K = If this breaks, all the hedges get covered. Cascade down.
📍 $65K = If this breaks, all the hedges get blown up. Squeeze up.
$SOL $OKB
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #DailyOrbit$ACU Market Quick Report｜August 17, 2026, 11:00
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Brothers, the current status of ACU is:
The price is hovering around $0.078–0.082, up about 2%–4% in the last 24 hours. It ranks around #686 in market cap, with a total market size just over 17 million USD—it's one of those small-cap altcoins that nobody really cares about but still manages to move on its own.
Let's review its recent moves:
On August 13, it was still hovering at 0.09, then surged to 0.1425 before dropping back to 0.12. On August 16, it made another move, breaking out with volume from 0.1092 to 0.1267—achieving in two days what others do in a month, and causing many to liquidate positions in a week.
And today, it’s quiet.
It’s like that guy who danced all night at the bar and now is leaning against the wall, drinking water and catching his breath—temporarily calm, but you never know if he’ll rush back to the dance floor the next second.
Current situation:
· Failed twice to break the previous high of 0.14; trapped positions are lining up to get out
· Around 0.12, bulls and bears are stabbing each other
· Nearly 100,000 USD traded in the last 24 hours
Friendly reminder:
This coin’s daily volatility often exceeds 30%, making it a prime candidate in the realm of wild coins. Contract traders are advised to steer clear—spot trading risks losing your principal at most, but contract liquidation can make you experience what it means to "wake up and find your house gone."
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The above content is for entertainment only and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets are risky, enter cautiously, chasing highs feels good momentarily, but the peak winds are strong. 🌬️闪迪这次暴涨的四大真实原因
1、投资者日甩出超预期长期目标，重塑估值逻辑
公司给出2028‑2030长期指引：营收中高双位数增长，非GAAP毛利率维持80%附近，营业利润率目标75% 。
过去存储是典型周期股，行情好赚大钱，行情差直接亏利润。现在管理层通过跟8家云厂商签署大额长期锁价合约，2027年一半出货、2028年三分之二出货提前锁定，就算闪存价格下行，也能守住底线利润，市场直接把它从周期股往AI成长股去重新定价。同时承诺，完成业务投入之后，100%剩余现金返还股东，大额度回购计划，给资金很强的分红回购预期 。
2、AI推理存储需求的故事讲透了
市场现在共识：AI训练热潮慢慢退潮，但是推理侧爆发刚刚开始。
3、机构集体上调目标价，空头回补助推行情
多家投行上调目标价，部分机构直接给到2300‑2500区间。前期积累不少空头仓位，股价一启动，空头被动平仓，进一步放大上涨幅度，形成“目标上调+空头回补”的双重推力 。
4、外围宏观环境配合
美股标普维持高位震荡，风险偏好回暖，通胀数据没有出现超预期恶化，加息预期降温，成长科技股整体获得情绪加持，给存储板块提供大环境托底。⚡ The bullish and bearish landscape is quietly shifting! Is ETH gearing up to overtake BTC? But the turning point for the major market has yet to arrive
#ETF买盘反转, BTC leverage positions have rebounded
#消费动能转弱, September policy remains constrained by inflation
#现货ETF资金分化, can ETH relatively outperform BTC⚠️?
Based on market capital data and the latest assessments from major institutions, Ethereum is entering a temporary advantage opportunity. But it is necessary to clearly face reality: neither BTC nor ETH has broken out of the consolidation trap in the short term. Trying to quickly reap short-term profits is basically unrealistic. At this stage, patience and waiting are suitable; it is far from the time to harvest profits.
📊 Three core logics support ETH's relatively strong pattern
• Clear disparities in capital flows: Looking back at July data, the US Ethereum spot ETF attracted $347 million, while Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of only $172 million. Since entering August, ETH ETF funds have continued to flow steadily, while BTC spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $330 million. The contrast is clear, giving ETH greater resilience. Many institutions point out that Ethereum does not bear the burden of miners' continuous selling pressure, giving its capital structure an inherent advantage.
• ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to recover: In July, ETH/BTC rose 10.51%, with a maximum rebound from the bottom reaching 25%; During the same period, Bitcoin's gain was only 8.5%. Although part of the gains came from a deep oversold correction, it is enough to prove that market capital is slowly shifting toward Ethereum.
• Leading institutions maintain optimistic expectations: Although Standard Chartered Bank lowered its target price for the coin, it remains firmly optimistic about Ethereum's 2026 market prospects, predicting its performance could outperform Bitcoin; Fundstrat also expressed the view that Ethereum's overall returns by year-end are likely to outperform BTC.
⚠️ Stay calm! The medium- to long-term downside risk has not been eliminated
Both major mainstream coins are still stuck in a box range; do not mistakenly assume that structural strength equals a trend reversal.
• Reviewing historical market patterns, August has traditionally been a month when Bitcoin tends to weaken, with the median price change in historical data as low as -7.87%.
• BTC has been repeatedly tug-of-war in the 60,000–66,000 range, with technical patterns faintly forming risk signals of head and shoulders tops; ETH continues to oscillate between 1,850 and 1,950, repeatedly pushing upward resistance but unable to break through effectively.
• Multiple investment banks downgraded forward valuations: Citi lowered BTC's twelve-month price target from 112,000 to 82,000, and ETH target from 3,175 to 2,240. Standard Chartered issued a risk warning, stating BTC could potentially fall below the 50,000 mark, while ETH needs to be cautious of the 1,400-point level.
💡 Here are a few practical trading strategies
1. Let go of the dream of getting rich overnight and plan with a long-term mindset. Many institutions warned that there is still room for a pullback. BTC is focusing on the 60,000-65,000 range, while ETH is closely watching the 1800-20,000 range. Pullbacks are giving rise to better entry opportunities.
2. Stable players: Focus on tracking ETH
Relying on sustained ETF inflows and institutions being optimistic about relative returns, there are two main reasons for this. But there is a hard condition: only when the price stabilizes above $2,000 with increased volume can the bullish trend officially begin.
3. Aggressive players: Small positions rely on support to rebound
Observe spot support in the BTC 62,500-63,000 and ETH 1,850-1,900 ranges, and strictly set stop-losses when participating. If BTC effectively falls below 60,000, be mentally prepared for a deeper correction.
4. Conservative traders: Patiently hold coins and observe from the sidelines
Wait for BTC to stabilize between 65,000 and 67,000 with increased volume, confirming the start of a new bull market.
#BTC成交萎缩, whether ETF buying can rebound #消费动能转弱 is still $BTC $ETH $OKB September policy is still constrained by inflation #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound?
To put it bluntly, the biggest problem with crypto not rising right now is that the money hasn't returned, and the ability to make money is weak.
$BTC Recently, trading volume has been getting smaller, prices haven't moved much, ETF inflows are weak, and stablecoin funds are still flowing out. In other words, off-exchange funds aren't as anxious about BTC now; everyone is waiting.
Looking at ETH on the other hand, it has recently attracted more attention than BTC, with ETH spot ETFs in July seeing much stronger inflows than BTC. This shows institutions are not stopping buying coins, but are moving to other locations.
Personally, I value this more clearly. Currently, a lot of money is still in US and Korean stocks, especially in AI, chips, storage, $SNDK, and gold $XAU. These sectors have been rising rapidly recently, so funds naturally go to places with profitable potential.
So BTC now feels like someone waiting for a customer to come in—the door is still open, but the customers have temporarily gone elsewhere to eat.
If BTC ETFs continue to flow in, stablecoin funds start to flow back, and trading volume increases, then BTC's low volatility in recent months is likely a result of holding up a major rally.
But if funds continue to flow into AI and semiconductors in US and Korean stocks, don't expect a full takeoff in the crypto sector in the short term. Most likely, BTC will move sideways, with ETH and some hot spots rotating around.
In short, the current profit-making effect in crypto is no longer as strong as these tech stocks; smart money will definitely move toward places with higher profitability.
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice! $XIAOMI 小米当前处于"业绩前观望"状态
技术面短期反弹但中期空头未破
消息面多空交织，明日中报是核心催化剂
明日中报：利润下滑幅度是否超预期，以及下半年指引（手机毛利率拐点、电动车交付目标）
小米将于8月18日（明日）公布第二季度业绩。当前市场预期分化明显：
偏谨慎预期：中金预测Q2收入同比降7.6%至1,071亿元，经调整净利润同比降43.55%至61.14亿元；华泰预计Non-GAAP净利润同比降43.2%至61.6亿元，毛利率环比降2.1个百分点至19.9%。主因存储涨价侵蚀手机利润、汽车业务持续亏损。
偏乐观信号：大摩指出Q2智能手机出货量达3,120万部，超预期15%，均价创历史新高；申万宏源强调公司全栈AI优势被低估，Mimo-V2.5周调用量登顶全球第一。
近期积极动态：
· 回购托底：8月14日回购194万股，均价25.64-25.72港元，涉资4,981万元；6月2日至今累计回购1.04亿股，占股本0.4%
· 新品催化：首款阔折叠手机拟搭载澎湃OS 4；下半年推全新中大型车型"澎程"，切入家庭赛道
· 机构评级：国泰海通维持"增持"，目标价40.2港元（5美元），指下半年迎基本面拐点；申万宏源维持"买入"；大摩维持"增持"及目标价32港元（4美元左右）
在业绩落地前，市场大概率维持区间震荡。若中报利润下滑符合预期且给出乐观指引，可能触发利空出尽反弹；若不及预期，则可能考验3.2甚至更低。稳健建议减仓或离场
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 Opening the market software, Bitcoin is still at $63,000
Five weeks ago it was 63,000, and five weeks later, it was 63,000
62,000 is stubborn and unbreakable, 65,500 is absolutely impassable. Volatility has dropped to multi-year lows, and trading volume has shrunk to a fraction of what it was during Trump's inauguration peak and last October's flash crash.
Retail investors are about to go crazy
"Macro data is decent, BTC hasn't dropped sharply, so why can't it rise?"
On August 16, Cumberland released a set of data—
The total market capitalization of stablecoins fell from about $321 billion on May 20 to about $305 billion on August 16
A 5% decline, the third largest drawdown in history
DefiLlama's real-time data is even lower: about $300.76 billion
Meanwhile, Binance has recorded nearly $7 billion in net stablecoin outflows so far in 2026. In July alone, 2.2 billion yuan flowed out, and August is still ongoing
The latest report from 10x Research points out that Bitcoin's trading volume has shrunk significantly, with the price entering its narrowest volatility range in months. Implied volatility has dropped to a rare low for the summer off-season
Without incremental funding, no matter how good the narrative is, it's just castles in the air
The 300 billion outflow of stablecoins is not the end of the world, but because money is seeking yields
What if the money never comes back?
If interest-bearing stablecoins have an annualized rate of 4%, and BTC doesn't rise or fall for a year, why would that money come back?
$BTC $ETH #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? $WLFI A bank license has increased by 15%, and the Trump concept is really in play this time
WLFI bucked the trend this week and surged over 13%, now near $0.059, with 24-hour trading volume surging 435% to surpass $100 million.
1. The core driver is licensing. On August 15, the U.S. OCC conditionally approved World Liberty to establish a national trust bank, and the issuance and custody of $4 billion USD1 stablecoins will be taken over by BitGo and subject to federal regulation. This is not just a positive sign, but a qualitative change in compliance status.
2. More catalysts to follow. Trump is expected to attend Wednesday's White House crypto closed-door meeting, with CEO of Coinbase, Ripple, and others on the list, fully leveraging political resources.
3. But stay alert: WLFI has been sideways in the 0.05-0.10 range for 11 weeks, with concentrated selling pressure at 0.057-0.058, and large leveraged positions on the chain are still close to the liquidation line.
License plates are a long-term strategy, not a short-term speculative theme. Only when volume breaks through 0.058 can you talk about approaching 0.062; otherwise, it's still a box-level market. Don't mistake news pulses for trend reversals
#OKX星球话题来啦 1亿进来不涨，3.3亿出去不跌——定价权已经易手
美国现货BTC和ETH ETF合计净流入约11亿美元，其中比特币ETF占8.65亿美元。按照以往市场逻辑，这足以把BTC推高5%以上。结果呢？价格纹丝不动，在62,000-65,000美元区间反复摩擦。
更诡异的是反向测试。比特币ETF净流出约3.29亿美元。“常识”告诉我们应该崩盘。结果BTC同期UTC收盘价仅下跌约0.8%。
ETF数据“失效”了。为什么？
前半段：ETF在买，但链上成本密集区（约66,000美元附近）的解套卖压正好抵消了买盘。11亿美元进来，全部被早期持有者的出货吃掉了。价格没动，但筹码换了一轮手。
后半段：ETF在卖，但衍生品在撑盘。比特币期货未平仓合约在八小时内激增12亿美元，名义价值升至约492亿美元。资金费率保持正值—杠杆多头在持续加仓。
现在的比特币定价权，已经从“ETF资金流向”转移到了“衍生品杠杆博弈”。以前：ETF流入→BTC涨，ETF流出→BTC跌。现在：ETF流入被解套盘吃掉，ETF流出被杠杆撑住。
但这种“杠杆焊住的价格”从来都不稳。如果ETF继续流出，积累的多头仓位随时可能变成清算的燃料。BTC has been acting a bit strange lately. Prices haven't dropped much, but the market has clearly cooled down. K33 data shows that BTC spot trading volume has dropped to relatively low levels in recent years, with the average 30-day trading volume for perpetual contracts only about $10.8 billion. Simply put: those who want to sell aren't selling franziously, and those who want to buy aren't in a rush. Everyone is waiting. But there is one data point I think is even more worth watching than trading volume — ETFs. From August 3 to August 7, US spot BTC ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of about $850 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone attracting nearly $700 million. This indicates that institutions have not completely abandoned BTC. The problem is, the good news didn't last long. After August 10, ETF funds reappeared and flowed out. So now the most awkward part is here: do institutions want to buy? I thought. Are you just buying continuously? Not yet. This is also why I hesitate to go long right now. Because what BTC really needs is not a fancy story, but real incremental capital. If the following occurs: consecutive ETF inflows + increased spot trading volume + BTC breaks upward, then I will significantly improve my judgment of the market. But if the other way around: ETFs continue to flow out + trading volume is getting smaller + contract open interest remains high, then caution is needed. Because the most troublesome part of this market is: on the surface, things seem calm, but in reality, there's plenty of leverage inside. So next, I'll only look at two things: ETF arrival$BTC $ETH $DOGE 价格在63000附近磨了快两周 成交量肉眼可见在缩 5分钟级别都能出现连续没成交的K线 市场跟被按了暂停键一样 问题不在外部 在内部 美股那边涨得火热 标普都破7800了 币圈资金反而被抽走 存量博弈已经玩不动了 ETF这边确实在买 这周净流入2.4亿 连续两周正流入 但问题是买盘来了价格不涨 说明另一边有人在卖 矿工在卖 MSTR在卖 套牢盘在解套离场 买盘和卖盘互相抵消 价格就被卡死在箱体里 现在的核心矛盾是 外部流动性预期在改善 内部抛压也在消化 但两股力量还没形成合力 需要时间让买盘压倒卖盘 或者出现一个明确的外部催化剂 让资金重新回流 短期还是看63000到64000这个区间能不能放量突破 站上64000 说明买盘占了上风 跌破62500 卖盘还在主导 等量回来 等方向出来 别在缩量里赌方向#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 # Midday Review 2026.08.17 (Monday)
BTC was about $62,950 (-0.4%), ETH about $1,878 (-0.5%), SOL about $75.1, and OKB about $104.7. Over the weekend, volume continued to shrink and bottoming out, with the weekly chart down 3.5%, and the Fear and Greed Index at 34.
**Three Key Signals:**
1. BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $390 million last week (trading every five days, four days), and just the previous week, $850 million inflowed, causing institutional sentiment to shift sharply
2. The proportion of BTC profitable addresses has dropped to 51.4%, a three-year low—a large amount of tokens trapped between $65K and $70K, with selling pressure immediately triggering a rebound
3. Brent $88.5 (+1.7%), geopolitical premium not yet over; CME shows a 66.9% probability of no rate hike in September
**My Judgment:** BTC is grinding narrowly between $62,500 and $63,300, with $62,000 as key support at the lower boundary of the channel. If it breaks, look for $60,000–$61,000. Without increased volume above $64,500, it won't be able to hold higher. Today, ETF trading resumed, and flow is the catalyst for direction choice—continued outflows indicate bearishness, and only with net inflows can there be hope for a rebound.
The above is a personal review and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #OKBAMD最近完成了公司历史上规模最大的美元债发行，一口气融资 47.5亿美元。
这次一共分成4笔债券，分别在2029、2031、2033和2036年到期，利率从 4.6%到5.5%。AMD官方目前只说资金会用于「一般公司用途」，也可能拿一部分偿还现有债务，并没有公布更具体要拿去做什么。
但这个时间点蛮值得注意。
AMD其实不缺现金，目前手上大约还有 131亿美元现金，同时今年资本支出明显增加，AI芯片、数据中心和供应链都越来越吃资金。现在选择一次借47.5亿美元，更像是在AI投入继续放大的阶段，先把手上的资金准备好。
而且最近不只是AMD在筹钱，整个AI产业都在疯狂找资本。
AI竞争打到现在，已经越来越像一场资本战了。谁想继续追NVIDIA，除了芯片做得出来，口袋也必须够深。
$NVDA $AMD $SNDK
#AMD完成历史最大美元债发行：融资47.5亿美元 $SNDK Seeing this long-short ratio reminds me of the fear of being dominated a month ago...... At that time, Micron's long-short ratio was 90+, and eventually the bulls were completely crushed, until bulls lost confidence and the ratio returned to around 1. Now everyone is bearish, and the long-short ratio was once only 20+. Are you still short? The financial market only allows a few people to make money, that's for sure. The bulls have been trading sideways for two weeks to hold chips, and a few more upward moves are normal. Of course, now is not suitable for squatting in and entering the market; it's probably the final sprint phase, unless it falls below 1700, in which case you can try small long positions. If you want to short, expect airdrops to be basically pushed to the limit after 1850-1900. When the long-short ratio approaches 1, then short in batches.$SOL 正在抢ETH的RWA增量：过去30天新增3.78亿美元代币化美债
今天SOL有个数据值得单独研究：过去30天，Solana链上代币化美国国债规模新增约 3.78亿美元，同期Ethereum新增约2.72亿美元，SOL在这一阶段的增量已经领先$ETH
再结合7月Solana约 14.5亿美元的代币化股票成交量，现在SOL的资金逻辑已经不只是MEME。
下一阶段公链竞争，很可能越来越看四个数据：
稳定币余额、RWA规模、真实交易量、链上手续费。
而不是只比较TPS。
交易上我更关注SOL/$BTC ，如果BTC继续横盘，而SOL/BTC能够持续抬高，同时RWA数据继续增长，才说明基本面叙事正在转化成资金偏好。
产业趋势可以提前研究，但价格最好等市场自己确认
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ #Peter Todd Wants to Change the 21M Cap, While Vitalik Is Integrating BTC into ETH
Both chains are simultaneously touching one of their most untouchable parts this week. Peter Todd reintroduced a tail emission proposal on Bitcoin++, aiming to permanently extend block rewards, which would pry open BTC’s 21,000,000 hard cap; meanwhile, Vitalik is suggesting Ethereum scaling can learn from Bitcoin’s UTREEXO, bringing BTC’s light node solution into ETH. These two things seem unrelated but actually answer the same question: should these two most robust networks learn from each other?
Todd’s move is a thought experiment, not an on-chain risk
First, set a baseline for fear. Todd himself made it clear on X: he hasn’t made any substantive contributions to Bitcoin Core in ten years; the label of thought leader fits him better than Core dev. He hasn’t written a single line of core code that would be merged, only reintroduced his July 23 Toronto talk "Tail Emissions and Demurrage" on August 14 on Bitcoin++.
His core argument is actually simple. Permanent BTC issuance does not equal inflation because lost coins would be redistributed to miners through a constant tail reward, resembling gold’s long-term attrition rate; without stable miner income beyond fees, block incentives would collapse, exposing the security budget. Implementing this would require a consensus-level hard fork, rewriting the 21M figure—one of the most untouchable parameters in BTC’s history.
Adam Back outright rejected it on August 16, comparing it to BIP-110, a dangerously inadvisable proposal, criticizing Todd for using simple but incorrect rhetoric to sway people. Dan Held also rebutted: any supply parameter tweak introduces a permanent political attack surface; there’s no way to calculate the most reasonable inflation rate; keeping the 21 million cap is to ensure this topic never surfaces. Todd himself doesn’t bet on it happening; news.bitcoin quotes him saying no tail emission hard fork will happen within five years. This is not a coin risk but a repeatedly stirred narrative.
Vitalik’s side: not changing ETH issuance, but borrowing BTC’s structure
ETH isn’t changing its supply curve but its scaling structure. Vitalik publicly said Ethereum can learn from Bitcoin’s UTREEXO, a scheme that compresses the UTXO set into a Merkle structure, allowing light nodes to avoid verifying the entire history. It doesn’t change ETH’s issuance model but brings BTC’s UTXO-friendly light node structure into ETH, lowering the node entry barrier.
Looking at both side by side makes it clear. Todd wants BTC to learn ETH’s permanent issuance plus miner incentives; Vitalik is making ETH learn BTC’s minimalist state and light nodes. The Bitcoin vs Ethereum debate is shifting from who will replace whom to who learns first.
The market isn’t giving you conclusions, but rhythm
BTC perpetual on 8/17 at 11:50 reported $63,421.3, +0.54% in 24h; funding rate +0.0100% near zero; OKX single-block SWAP oiUsd about $2.12 billion. ETH perpetual at $1,903.91, +1.13% in 24h; funding rate +0.0070% also near zero; oiUsd about $1.34 billion. ETH’s 24h rebound is more than double BTC’s.
Professor Suo noted in the 8/17 morning report: BTC hard fork topic is heating up, some are bottom-fishing, others eyeing 30–50k; ETH lacks buying reasons, everyone talks about shorting ETH together. Narrative and price rhythm are opposite; BTC’s base is dragged into debate by the tail emission narrative, while ETH’s market moves ahead of debate heat.
Whales are betting on both sides. ETH whale 0x8447 withdrew 5,300 ETH worth $9.98 million from Kraken, with multiple withdrawals and staking in the past month (Lookonchain). On BTC’s side, a 7-month dormant address moved 16,400 BTC worth $1.04 billion, and another 100% win-rate bull opened a $107 million BTC long.
Should these two things be considered together?
UTREEXO borrowed is positive for ETH: smaller nodes, lower staking and self-operation thresholds, meaning ETH is adopting BTC’s minimalist node philosophy at a deeper level.
Tail emission is politically almost impossible to pass. It rewrites the 21M cap, the most untouchable number in BTC’s faith. The value of Todd’s proposal is not in implementation but in repeatedly bringing this boundary topic up every two or three years, forcing the community to reaffirm why 21M must not be changed.
The ETH/BTC ratio is watched by many as a reversal node; moonbag and eliz883 have recently called for a reversal. If Vitalik’s borrowing is formalized into an EIP and put on Hegotá’s agenda, ETH’s long-term valuation narrative won’t rely on soaring stories but on BTC-verified structure, making it even harder to collapse.
Let’s discuss three questions in the comments.
Is BTC’s 21M cap an unchangeable faith or just a security lock no one dares to touch?
Is Vitalik borrowing BTC’s UTREEXO philosophy for ETH, or is BTC’s minimalist idea quietly consuming all chains?
$BTC $ETH #UTREEXO