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When the Middle East conflict began in late February, the general expectation was that crypto, as a “risk asset,” would take the biggest hit. The actual outcome tells a different story that not many are talking about: BTC is down -4.4% since then, ETH -5.7%, while gold futures have dropped -14.7%.The situation where a position with an average cost of ETH 1880 dollars is exposed to market volatility ultimately stems from the discrepancy between leverage and spot supply and demand. The core issue addressed in this article is not a simple complaint about losses, but why this position is trapped at a specific price range and what kind of price structure can free it. First, let's look at the part already reflected in the price. The time when ETH hovered around 1880 dollars was a period when expectations for spot ETF demand and rising network fees coincided. Afterward, ETH broke away from this level, and the current price is fluctuating at a level lower than the previous high. In other words, 1880 dollars was a past supply-demand equilibrium point, not the current one. There are still two variables not yet reflected. The first is whether the accumulation movement of the OKB community is of a scale that can be confirmed in actual exchange liquidity pools. The second is whether the small altcoin rally represented by SNDK is a temporary refuge for funds that have exited ETH or the beginning of a new risk appetite axis. From the perspective of price structure and supply-demand, ETH's📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (August 20)
According to liquidation data, the dog whales executed a textbook one-sided long squeeze on KAITO — longs controlled the market from the 1-hour mark, momentum gradually amplified, then concentratedly exploded within 24 hours, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $660,000.
From $KAITO liquidation data: at 1 hour, long liquidations crushed shorts (3.8x), volume $1,724, longs tentatively controlled the market; at 4 hours, longs confirmed direction (3.1x), liquidation volume surged to $25,400, longs started to exert force but with moderate multiples; at 12 hours, longs continued to dominate (2.33x), liquidation volume rose to $113,800, longs maintained control but momentum began to wane; at 24 hours, longs fully exploded, longs were 5.65 times the shorts, liquidation volume soared to $664,500, shorts were completely crushed. The 24-hour liquidation volume accounted for 86% of the total daily volume, showing extremely high concentration. The long-to-short liquidation ratio jumped from 2.33x at 12 hours to 5.65x at 24 hours, long squeeze momentum sharply intensified, and the gap between longs and shorts suddenly widened. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; do not blindly bottom-fish.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 20
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the Fed's "hawks" and the market's "doves" are in direct confrontation — the hawkier the minutes, the higher the market rises; the divergence itself is the direction.
🏛️ Fed July Minutes: 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, but hawks far outnumber votes
The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 20 show the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari all advocated a 25 basis point hike.
More importantly, the minutes reveal that the forces supporting a rate hike far exceeded the three formal dissenters; many participants leaned toward a 25 basis point hike but ultimately agreed to hold steady. The minutes clearly state that further tightening would be necessary if inflation does not improve. This was the Fed's most divided meeting in a decade.
₿ BTC breaks $69,000: the hawkier the minutes, the higher the market rises
On the same day the Fed minutes were released, Bitcoin surged past $69,000, reaching as high as $70,059, the highest level since June.
The direct trigger came from traditional financial markets — on August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced raising the single long-term Treasury repo cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. This macro liquidity injection ignited bullish sentiment in crypto markets. Coinglass data shows total crypto liquidations reached $1.61 billion within 24 hours, with shorts making up the vast majority. This was a classic "short squeeze" — shorts forced to liquidate, which in turn pushed prices higher.
The hawkish signals in the Fed minutes did not suppress the market — because the market prices not "what the minutes said," but "what is happening with liquidity."
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Earnings: Phone pressure, car support
On August 18, Xiaomi released its Q2 2026 results: revenue of ¥108.9 billion, surpassing the trillion-yuan scale again; adjusted net profit of ¥6.2 billion.
The smartphone business is under full pressure, but the automotive business became the biggest highlight — the smart electric vehicle and AI innovation business segment revenue reached ¥24.9 billion, up 17.1% year-over-year, accounting for 22.9% of total revenue. Among them, smart electric vehicle revenue was ¥23.9 billion, delivering 104,199 vehicles, up 28.2% year-over-year. The SU7 series cumulative deliveries have exceeded 500,000 units.
But concerns remain real — the automotive business operated at a loss of ¥2.6 billion, and gross margin fell from 26.4% last year to 19.2%. The Pengcheng series SUV orders exceeded expectations; whether it can become a turning point in the second half remains the biggest variable.
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: the hawkier the Fed minutes, the stronger Bitcoin rises — because the market prices not "who voted against," but the fact that "liquidity is easing"; Xiaomi supports growth with cars, but losses persist, and the switch between old and new engines is still in a painful transition. When hawkish minutes meet liquidity easing, and phone pressure meets automotive breakthrough — the August 2026 market is completing a new round of pricing in the most divided way. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 The moment BTC broke through 69,000, the contract zone seemed to be muted by someone, then suddenly exploded. Have you noticed that during this rally, spot prices are slowly moving forward, while contracts are frantically adding more cuts? Let's restore the board first. BTC reached a high of 69,888, just one breath away from 70,000. ETH was not to be outdone, surging to 2,119 and rising over 8% in a single day. On the knockoff side, quite a few are following the trend, but the real leaders are still those with stories to tell. The trigger was direct: the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to quickly fall from a 2019 high of 5.33% to 5.19%. Once this long-term interest rate rope is loosened, BTC soars like a kite with its neck let loose. But what really drove this rally so quickly wasn't spot buying, but the bearish stampede in the derivatives market. Above 63,000, a large number of high-leverage short positions are piled up. Once the price breaks through the key level, chain liquidations happen like dominoes, pushing the price higher layer by layer. ETF ETFs were not to be left alone either; BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net inflow of over $200 million, adding fuel to the fire. The question now is: can this position still be pursued? My view is that chasing after highs in the short term carries considerable risk. There is dense profit-taking near 69,000, and the price will most likely need to fluctuate and digest some space. First support is between 65,800 and 66,000. If it pulls back and it holds steady, then go downLast night's White House meeting was no longer just Trump saying "good news for Crypto".
Trump gathered SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, Ripple, Chainlink, as well as traditional financial and crypto industry giants like Nasdaq, NYSE parent company ICE, and released several very clear signals:
The U.S. is discussing further increasing Bitcoin and other digital assets; Congress must push forward the CLARITY Act next; CFTC is studying allowing Hyperliquid to compliantly enter the U.S.; meanwhile, the U.S. must maintain global leadership in Bitcoin, Crypto, prediction markets, and AI.
More importantly, SEC, CFTC, NYSE, Nasdaq, and Crypto companies have started sitting at the same table to discuss how to truly integrate new financial products like stablecoins, on-chain financing, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets into the U.S. financial system.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong directly mentioned at the White House that the next big battle is the 60 votes for the CLARITY Act.
Why is this important?
Crypto is gradually evolving from "an asset class supported by Trump" into a set of financial infrastructure that the U.S. is preparing to operate long-term. Overnight Rally｜Bitcoin and Ethereum Surge Together, But It's Not About the Coins Themselves🔥
Who got confused by the market last night?
Bitcoin and Ethereum both surged late at night, and many thought it was the coins themselves entering a big bull market.
But understanding the logic reveals that the root cause of this rise is not within the crypto market itself.
✅ Complete logic behind this round of rally:
1️⃣ The U.S. Treasury made a big move, doubling the bond repurchase scale from 2 billion to 4 billion, focusing on 10-30 year long-term bonds.
2️⃣ Previously, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a 2019 high, attracting funds to pile into government bonds with high yields, continuously draining risk assets.
3️⃣ The repurchase operation suppressed Treasury yields, causing a large outflow of funds from the bond market, which then started flowing into stocks and risk assets like crypto.
4️⃣ The market was heavily bearish beforehand, with many short positions set up, everyone waiting for further declines.
5️⃣ When the market started to rise slightly, it triggered a chain of short squeeze liquidations, forcing huge buy orders to enter, further pushing up coin prices.
👉 Key point: Short squeeze liquidations are passive buys and happen only once; they do not indicate long-term capital entering the market.
6️⃣ Prices broke through the critical 200-day moving average, triggering algorithmic trading strategies to place bulk buy orders.
7️⃣ The SEC regulatory draft was released, giving some crypto projects a chance to no longer be classified as securities, improving policy expectations.
8️⃣ The White House crypto industry summit is about to be held, with top institutions attending, and the market is preemptively pricing in the positive news.
9️⃣ Bitcoin ETF funds are flowing back, with major institutions resuming net inflows.
💡 A very realistic reminder:
This rally may not be a complete trend reversal.
The surge caused by short squeeze is powerful but questionable in sustainability.
Related crypto concept stocks also surged sharply, but a single-day spike cannot make up for months of prior losses.
⚠️ Ordinary players must remember:
What determines coin prices now is not just candlestick charts.
U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve news, and U.S. fiscal policy have much higher priority than technical chart patterns.
Key resistance level is 69,000; only if the price can close steadily above this level can the market narrative be truly rewritten.
If it spikes up and quickly falls back, this round is just a short-term rebound.
Having been in crypto for so long, I deeply feel:
If you don’t understand the underlying logic of the rise, you will be among the last to react when it falls.
During volatile market swings, don’t blindly chase highs; pay more attention to the macro news calendar.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Cryptocurrency #CryptoReview #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC $圈干货 #BTCETH行情$ETH $BTC
Note: Content is market opinion only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency carries extremely high risk.CME Hedge Funds Shift BTC Futures to Net Long: Unusual Position Changes of Wall Street Capital
In the CME Bitcoin futures market, hedge fund positions have shifted to net long.
Short positions purely used for arbitrage are shrinking, and bullish active long bets are emerging.
CME Hedge Fund Net Position: An important indicator measuring whether institutions hold short positions for spot arbitrage (basis trading) in the futures market or are targeting directional upside longs.
From Arbitrage to Directional Bets: Transitioning from the risk-free "spread capture" strategy of buying ETFs + shorting futures to genuinely targeting upside with "directional buying," capturing potential capital flows.
Constraints and Illusion Possibilities: Due to data discrepancies caused by CFTC regulatory aggregation standards (standard futures vs. micro futures), caution is needed in confirming a full buy-in shift.
True Bull Market Conditions: The key "three horsemen" combining CME short position reduction, spot ETF inflows, and strong spot buying demand. This marks an important watershed where Wall Street institutions' Bitcoin buying purpose shifts from "risk hedging" to "directional investment." The trend of spot ETF inflows and changes in the derivatives market structure deserve attention.Bitcoin surged with a big bullish candle, and thousands of troops came to greet it!
After calling for a Bitcoin rebound for over a month, we've been grinding at the bottom for a super long time, and today finally gave a decent rebound.
This spot wave was fully exited around 68500; this is the tenth wave profit-taking in this year's bear market, and this time we waited especially long.
Moreover, this wave also included positioning in triple-leveraged tokens, so the profits are quite good.
Previously mentioned that on 8/27 there will be a Bitcoin Asia Summit, so there should be significant volatility in the coming days.
Just now, the U.S. Treasury announced a U.S. debt buyback, and Bitcoin finally reacted.
Recently, due to the high yields on long-term U.S. debt, the market has been very panicked about investments, still fearing the interest rate hike issue.
This round of U.S. debt buyback operations not only pulled up Bitcoin but also gold and silver.
What’s worth noting here is,
such big good news, yet the U.S. stock market didn’t react much.
As mentioned in the previous article, risks are gradually arriving, so we are gradually reducing U.S. stock holdings, and have completely exited the double-long positions on Micron and Hynix.
These days, we reduce holdings on rallies, slowly pocketing cash.
Bitcoin might also execute the last shorting wave of this bear market!
Patience is key Bitcoin rises to 70,000, why do I still not believe the bear market is over?
On August 16, when Bitcoin was still consolidating around 63,000, I indicated that the rebound rally was not over yet.
The next day, Bitcoin started to rise and yesterday it broke through the July 21 high with increased volume, reaching nearly 70,000 at its peak.
At the same time, there have been obvious recent regulatory positives:
Trump met with executives from Coinbase, Gemini, Ripple, and other crypto industry leaders, as well as heads of the SEC and CFTC, pushing for the CLARITY Act to advance quickly again;
The SEC proposed a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, providing new registration exemption paths for some token issuances, further easing regulatory uncertainty.
Stimulated by these positives, voices in the market saying "the bull is back" have clearly increased.
Although this rebound slightly exceeded my previous expectation around 67,700, I still currently believe:
This rise is most likely still a rebound, not a reversal.
Why?
1. This round of rise has obvious short squeeze factors
Besides the positive news, the 65,500–67,500 range previously concentrated a large amount of short liquidation liquidity.
After the price broke through, chained liquidations further amplified the upward movement.
In other words:
The news ignited the spark, the liquidation mechanism amplified it.
But above 70,000, short liquidation liquidity clearly decreases, and without new funds continuously pushing, the short squeeze rally alone is unlikely to sustain a continuous rise.
2. Price structure and volume still do not look like a trend reversal
The rebound rally since July 1, 2026, like the previous two rebound rallies (Nov 21, 2025–Jan 13, 2026, and Feb 6, 2026–May 6, 2026), has been unfolding along a rebound channel, and yesterday’s surge belongs to the c wave of this rebound rally.
At the same time, compared to the previous two rebounds, the trading volume in this round of rise has not shown a particularly obvious increase.
A true trend reversal usually requires stronger sustainability and volume support.
Currently, these two signals are still not obvious enough.
3. On-chain indicators still lack typical bear market bottom confirmation
LTH-RP and CVDD are important long-term indicators for observing Bitcoin cycle bottoms.
Historically, several bear market bottoms have broken below LTH-RP and landed right on the CVDD line.
Currently, CVDD is about 48,900, LTH-RP about 49,600, and Bitcoin’s previous low was about 57,800, which is still noticeably above these two indicators.
This does not prove the bear market definitely won’t end, but at least indicates:
There is still a lack of typical cycle bottom confirmation signals.
4. There is still a large amount of liquidation liquidity below
The 47,000–57,000 range still contains a large amount of liquidation liquidity, especially concentrated around 50,000–52,000.
This means there is still a significant potential price magnet area below.
Therefore, before the price structure shows obvious changes, I still will not directly judge that a new bull market has started just because of a strong rebound.
Of course, I will not stubbornly stick to one view.
If Bitcoin can continue to rise with increasing volume and effectively break through rebound channel 3, then the current rebound structure may change, and I will re-evaluate the judgment of "whether the bear market is over."
The above analysis is for reference only and is not investment advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #BearMarket Samsung is throwing a staggering 100 trillion KRW into shareholder returns: How big of a storm will this heavy blow from the Asian semiconductor giant stir up?
South Korean semiconductor giant Samsung Electronics is about to announce a historic shareholder return plan worth up to 100 trillion KRW (approximately 75 billion USD). As soon as the news broke, the entire Asia-Pacific financial circle and the global semiconductor supply chain exploded with excitement.
After enduring the past two years of a downturn in memory and fierce competition in the HBM sector, Samsung suddenly pulls out this nuclear-level capital ace, and its impact is far more than just giving shareholders a bigger dividend.
If you see this 100 trillion KRW move merely as routine market value management, you are seriously underestimating its profound impact on the global tech supply chain and capital liquidity.
This heavy blow will trigger chain reactions in at least three dimensions:
The first dimension is the global memory chip industry declaring an end to vicious overcapacity expansion, ushering in historic self-discipline on the supply side.
Over the past two decades, the biggest fear for competitors in the global memory chip industry has been Samsung’s counter-cyclical, suicidal expansion fueled by its seemingly bottomless cash flow. Whenever prices slightly recover, Samsung would pour all its hard-earned cash into wafer fabs to wage price wars, pushing Taiwanese and American rivals into dire straits.
But this time, Samsung is locking up a massive 100 trillion KRW in cash for stock buybacks, cancellations, and cash dividends, sending a very clear strategic signal to the entire market: Samsung will no longer blindly pursue absolute scale monopoly of mature capacity but will shift to pursuing high-quality growth in return on equity (ROE) and earnings per share (EPS).
When the memory kingpin starts restraining capital expenditures and returns cash to shareholders, peers like Micron, SK Hynix, and even SanDisk can finally shed the shackles of vicious price wars, substantially raising the profit ceiling and stability of the entire memory chip cycle.
The second dimension is smashing the Korea Discount, triggering a massive migration of global long-term capital.
For a long time, Korean chaebols have suffered from a severe Korea Discount due to family control, stingy dividends, and opaque governance, with price-to-book ratios consistently below 1. Samsung’s response to the Korean government’s corporate value enhancement plan by deploying liquidity equivalent to nearly 20% of its market cap for buybacks and cancellations will directly boost its return on net assets.
For Wall Street’s long-term pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, which have been squeezed by high valuations in US stocks in recent years, a semiconductor giant with historically low P/E ratios and a cash cushion worth hundreds of trillions will create a huge liquidity siphon effect, driving foreign capital back into Asia’s core assets.
The third dimension is conveying a consensus on asset scarcity to the Bitcoin world.
As global tech giants at the top of market cap rankings embark on massive share cancellations and contraction modes, the capital market is forming a very clear new paradigm: in an era of fiat currency flooding and debt expansion, only scarce assets that can continuously generate real positive cash flow and have hardcore buyback and cancellation mechanisms can truly weather cycles. This forms a fascinating cross-sector resonance in asset pricing with Bitcoin’s halving mechanism that compresses secondary supply.
However, amid optimism, the market also poses Samsung its toughest ultimate test:
While deploying hundreds of billions of USD in cash for shareholder returns, can Samsung deliver qualified results in the second half of this year on the technical front of Nvidia’s HBM3e and next-generation HBM4 certifications? If the technical barriers are successfully overcome, this 100 trillion KRW capital restructuring will become Samsung’s strongest springboard to leap across cycles.
After Samsung announced the 100 trillion KRW shareholder return, do you think this will completely end the vicious cycle in memory chips? Among Micron, Hynix, and Samsung, who do you think will achieve the greatest excess returns in this AI wave?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Don't just look at HYPE surging 20%, calculate the compliance premium and liquidation accounts behind it.
At the White House press conference, a single remark from Trump pushed Hyperliquid ($HYPE) into the regulatory spotlight of the CFTC. $HYPE immediately surged above $72 intraday, and related US stock targets rose over 30%.
Most people only see the “positive surge” but completely miss the chip-killing scheme behind this political co-optation:
1. The “pricing power struggle” common among institutions
Perp DEX used to be considered an offshore gray product; compliant institutions wanting to deploy funds simply couldn’t pass risk control. The CFTC’s special push to enter the US market is essentially using compliance licenses to seize the ultimate pricing power of on-chain derivatives. Once this door fully opens, the trillion-dollar institutional funds settled in traditional markets will finally have a legal channel to enter.
2. The “secondary restructuring” of chip distribution
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, before the news broke, retail investors had placed high-leverage short positions around $60. This sharp rally directly wiped out the short liquidity completely. After the high-level turnover, $HYPE transformed from a small coin for retail speculation into a branded asset with a “political premium.”
3. The “positive realization trap” traders need to guard against
Political winds are easy to blow, but the CFTC’s specific compliance rules, KYC restrictions, and underlying liquidation access will take at least several months of tug-of-war. When chips rise near previous highs, blindly chasing the rally to bet on a one-sided main uptrend is very likely to encounter a false breakout where market makers use the positive news to unload.Why the global online payment giant Stripe acquired OpenRouter
Stripe announced an agreement to acquire the AI model aggregation platform OpenRouter, with the deal price reportedly slightly above $8 billion. OpenRouter enables developers to access over 500 large models from more than 80 companies (including OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, and domestic ones like DeepSeek, Kimi, Qianwen) through a unified API. It currently processes over 10 trillion tokens daily, serving more than 10 million developers and enterprises, with revenue coming from about a 5% commission on usage fees.
The acquisition background is the high cost of AI computing power for enterprises, which urgently need cheaper and more flexible model solutions. Tokens have become the "central currency" in the AI era. Stripe had previously launched a token billing product, and this acquisition further positions it in the AI consumption infrastructure, helping customers intelligently route requests and optimize token spending, while expanding its presence in the AI economy.
Three months ago, OpenRouter was valued at only $1.3 billion. This premium is significant, with a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 50 times, but the platform's role as a transit hub and the rapidly growing token throughput give it strategic positioning value for Stripe. Why is Bitcoin rising? $BTC
The reason is not cryptocurrency.
Listen, I'll write it in order:
1. The U.S. Treasury doubled the size of bond repurchases. Each operation increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.
2. The target is 10-30 year bonds. The government is repurchasing its longest-term debt.
3. The reason is as follows: the 30-year rate has reached a 19-year high. When government debt yields are this high, no one wants to take risks.
4. The repurchase action lowers rates, and funds flow back into risk assets. This opens the road to Bitcoin.
5. The market has been heavily shorted. Everyone expects a decline, everyone is shorting.
6. In just 4 hours, $1.4 billion of short positions were liquidated. These people bought not because they love Bitcoin, but because they had to buy to stop losses.
7. The price broke through the 200-day moving average, at $69,031. It had been below this line for months. Technical buy orders were also triggered.
8. On the same day, the SEC announced regulatory drafts. It clarified the capital raising framework, paving the way for mature networks to exit the securities category.
9. The White House will hold a cryptocurrency meeting. Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z will participate. The market has already priced in this positive news.
10. Funds flowed back into ETFs. On August 17, led by BlackRock and Fidelity, net inflows were $297.5 million.
Now to the point.
Remember this: Bitcoin no longer acts alone.
It rises when funds are abundant and falls when funds decrease. You can't understand this just by looking at charts because the reason isn't in the charts.
Honestly, this is not a trend reversal.
Most of the rise comes from forced buying. Liquidated shorts only buy once; they won't repeat the next day.
Strategy surged 13% today, Coinbase rose 11%. Both have fallen more than 35% since the beginning of the year.
A one-day rebound cannot erase a year's losses.
What you should do:
Be cautious.
Buying on the second day of the squeeze likely means catching those forced buyers exiting.
Open your calendar. The Fed meeting minutes and Treasury statements are now more important than Bitcoin charts. Mark the dates.
Note 69,000 points. If it closes and holds above this, the story changes. If it doesn't hold, today is just a jump.
I've been in this market for 12 years. If you don't know why it rises, you don't know why it falls. In both cases, you're always the last to know.
Save this. Next time there's a big fluctuation, check these ten points in the same order.
(Content above reposted from a certain X blogger) $BTC #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $BTC Bitcoin (BTC) surged strongly today, breaking through the $72,000 mark (24-hour increase over 11%), driven by multiple factors including macro liquidity easing signals, short squeeze, and key technical breakthroughs:
1. Direct stimulation from macro liquidity
The U.S. Treasury has increased bond repurchase efforts: The U.S. Treasury recently announced a significant expansion of its Treasury bond repurchase program (planned to continue from early September through November). This move sent a strong signal of easing and liquidity replenishment to the financial markets, directly lowering U.S. Treasury yields and weakening the dollar index.
Capital flows into inflation-resistant/high-risk assets: As market expectations for future liquidity improvement surged, funds quickly flowed into scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin, using them as hedges/premium tools against potential inflation and currency depreciation.
2. Technical breakthroughs and short squeeze
Key moving averages and resistance patterns broken: BTC recently successfully broke through the descending trendline and the 200-day moving average, confirming a phase bottom pattern (such as the neckline breakout of a head and shoulders bottom).
Accelerated short liquidations pushing prices up: Many traders had established short positions in the $65,000–$68,000 range. When the price forcibly broke through this key psychological level, a large number of short stop-loss buy orders were triggered instantly, creating a classic "short squeeze" scenario with accelerated upward momentum.
3. Resonance between spot and derivatives market sentiment
ETF and institutional funds follow suit: After the macro positive news, spot ETFs and OTC funds showed net inflows, replenishing buying depth.
Rotation among major tokens: BTC's breakout led to synchronous rises in major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), with overall market risk appetite clearly rebounding. $BTC surged ~7% to nearly $69,750, driven mainly by a massive short squeeze after crowded bearish positioning collided with Treasury’s increased long-term bond buybacks, which pushed the 30-year yield lower. However, ETF outflows and miner selling suggest the move was more positioning-driven than proof of strong, lasting demand.
The bigger long-term development was the SEC’s proposed “Regulation Crypto Assets” framework, which could establish clearer rules for crypto offerings if finalized BTC directly broke through 72,000! This short squeeze is brutal, let's break it down simply
Brothers, I just checked the market, BTC directly surged above 72,000. Intraday gain over 5%, rallying from around 64,000 to 72,000, a nearly 8,000-dollar rise from the low. I'm really impressed by this move.
A couple of days ago it was stuck around 64,000, then last night a big bullish candle pushed it to 69,000, and today it kept going straight through 72,000. The market switched from "extreme suppression" to "euphoric sentiment" in just a day and a half.
First, why the rise: three major positive factors stacked together
The core catalyst was the US Treasury announcement—on August 19, it declared that starting September 9, the single repurchase size for 10-30 year Treasury bonds will increase from 2 billion to at least 4 billion. Once the news came out, the 30-year Treasury yield quickly dropped, the dollar weakened, and gold surged over 3%. The market immediately began to reprice liquidity expectations.
Then the US SEC disclosed a new regulatory framework, establishing a safe harbor mechanism, with a $5 million cap on fundraising during the project launch phase, and up to $75 million annually during the regular phase. After compliance, securities classification can be lifted. The White House also held a crypto industry summit, and Trump came out again calling to push the CLARITY Act. Continuous regulatory positives gave incremental funds confidence.
Plus, Trump met with senior executives from multiple crypto companies at the White House. Multiple positives combined to ignite the market.
But what really made the gains so exaggerated was the shorts getting crushed
The strongest driver of this rally wasn’t active buying, but passive buying—shorts being forced to cover.
BTC was stuck around 64,000 for a long time, and the derivatives market accumulated a large amount of leveraged short positions. Once the price broke through a key liquidation cluster, many shorts triggered forced liquidations, short covering created a chain reaction of buy orders, pushing the price even higher. Over $1.3-1.4 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for over 90%. Reports say short liquidations exceeded $2.7 billion.
Simply put: shorts were too crowded, when the price rose, they were forced to buy back to close positions, which pushed the price higher, causing more shorts to liquidate—a classic short squeeze positive feedback loop.
However, there are a few signals to watch
First, Coinbase premium index is still negative, indicating demand in the US spot market hasn’t truly returned; this rally is mainly leverage-driven, not supported by spot buying.
Second, Glassnode issued a warning that on-chain data is still in a "capitulation phase," and before the realized profit-loss ratio breaks above 2, any rebound is more likely to be local.
Third, technically the market is seriously overbought, with 1-hour and 4-hour RSI both above 85. After a sharp rise, a pullback to digest profits is usually needed.
Here’s my current view
72,000-75,000 is the next major technical resistance zone. Whether BTC can hold above 72,000 is critical—if it holds, the next targets could be 75,000 or even 78,000; if it fails and falls below 68,000, this rally is just a quick short squeeze correction, not a trend reversal.
My strategy now is simple: don’t chase the first big bullish candle. Wait for a pullback confirmation; if it stabilizes with lower volume around 68,000-69,000, then consider entering. If it breaks and holds 72,000 with volume, then look for opportunities to follow up. Stop loss must be set properly; if key support breaks, exit promptly.
Brothers, have you gotten on board this wave? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $SNDK $ETH $SPCX
Let's talk about today's market analysis
This morning, the US stock storage sector rose, driven by the rise in the Korean stock market. However, a risk needs to be pointed out here: the US stock market has recently been moving independently, with the leading role played by the Korean stock market as a pioneer. Usually, most of the gains during the day are erased after the market opens, so avoid chasing the rally.
There is a large capital inflow into the crypto market, with ETH trading volume soaring to hundreds of billions of dollars, and the volume ratio increasing by 4 times. This indicates that the volatility risk funds attracted away by US stock contracts recently are starting to flow back. This is a signal worth noting, as capital attention is increasing. I judge that the crypto market should have a good trend ahead, and it is recommended to follow the trend.
Regarding US stocks, you can also pay attention to targets outside of hardware storage, such as SPCX, GOOGL, Apple, Meta, etc. When storage volatility decreases or declines, sector rotation usually occurs, pulling up these old tech stocks. You can buy on dips and cash out on highs. This round's script with $SKHYNIX $SNDK is somewhat like a wealthy landlord returning money to the people with a 70/30 split. I wonder if anyone has noticed that the buyback is of treasury shares, cashing out company cash flow reasonably at a high level. But if the cash-out at this position is completed, and retail investors panic sell, they then use the cashed-out money to buy back at a low price, isn't it still back in their own hands, continuing to pay dividends? The capital market doesn't believe in tears; from a business mindset, that's how it is—left hand to right hand, buying time, letting the goods keep flowing, and not letting the market collapse quickly. Not sure if this is correct. Anyway, if something unexpected happens, have a plan first. #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 The second largest short squeeze day in crypto history has arrived again.
According to Coinglass data, on August 19th, the total short liquidations across the network were about $1.74 billion, making it the second largest single-day short liquidation volume in history, only behind the $2.46 billion short liquidation on October 10, 2025. At that time, long liquidations reached as high as $16.7 billion (total liquidation record was $19.16 billion, the largest liquidation day in crypto history, showing how much impact the 10/10/last year or 10/11/domestic event had on the crypto space, directly cutting off the bull market progress).
On August 19th, the total 24-hour liquidations were about $1.9 billion, with shorts absolutely dominating (about $1.74 billion, over 90%), and longs only about $180 million. Among these, BTC contributed the majority (about $1.1 billion+ in shorts), and ETH about $460–510 million. The single-hour peak saw short liquidations of $1.1–1.23 billion.
The short squeeze was driven by a combination of crowded high-leverage short positions + price breakout + forced liquidation feedback loop.
Positions were crowded on the short side, with a significant number of traders (especially high-leverage players) continuously adding shorts. For example, a particularly conspicuous whale short appeared on Hyperliquid:
One address had an 1800 BTC short position (about $117 million, 40x leverage) fully liquidated; two other addresses combined triggered about 1177 BTC (about $77 million) in liquidations.
These high-leverage short liquidations were highly concentrated around similar price levels. This sudden price surge caused a chain reaction:
BTC rapidly surged and once touched near the $70,000 high, with a significant 24-hour gain.
The sudden price spike caused high-leverage short margin to be insufficient, forcing exchanges to buy to close positions, further pushing prices up and liquidating more shorts.
This positive feedback loop is especially violent in the perpetual futures market.
Especially with very high leverage, such as tens of times leverage, and order book liquidity thinning at key price levels. On-chain perpetual futures platforms can see whale positions, making them easy targets.Today's big rally in the market is really not just a single positive factor hitting the jackpot; it's several major events coinciding and resonating together.
First, the U.S. Treasury softened its stance, expanding long-term bond repurchases, causing long-term bond yields to drop sharply. Market liquidity instantly became much looser, and funds unwilling to settle for low returns started flowing into high-volatility tracks like BTC and ETH. This is the core reason behind this surge.
Second, the regulatory tone has completely softened. The SEC is now gradually clarifying the rules, providing the market with a clear compliance path instead of mindless crackdowns. The previously cautious institutional sentiment has suddenly loosened up.
Also, the White House directly met with leading figures in the crypto industry this time, discussing tokenization and regulatory frameworks. Simply put, the government is starting to take this sector seriously, giving the market strong confidence support.
Add to that the return of ETF funds and a large number of shorts being liquidated and closed out, multiple positive factors stacked together, causing the market to surge explosively.
But honestly, one bullish candle can't change beliefs.
This rally is currently driven by liquidity recovery, policy expectations, and short squeeze.
Whether it can develop into a true long-term trend depends on one core factor: whether there is sustained real money entering the spot market to take over positions.
If incremental funds continue to come in, this wave is the starting point of a reversal;
If no funds take over, it's likely just a short-term rebound with repeated shakeouts afterward.
Bull or bear markets are never judged by a single candlestick, but by whether the funds have returned and can be stabilized $BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Coinbase has integrated Hyperliquid perpetual contract trading into its Base App. Eligible users now have access to over 290 perpetual markets, covering BTC, ETH, stocks, and commodity-related assets, supporting up to 50x leverage, with trade execution handled by Hyperliquid. Coinbase stated that perpetual contracts currently account for about 75% of total cryptocurrency trading volume and are among the most requested features among Base App users. This launch marks Base App's shift from an early focus on social and creator features to an accelerated shift toward broader application scenarios such as transactions, payments, and AI agency capabilities. It should be made clear that this product will not be open to users in the US, UK, Canada, or other jurisdictions where leveraged crypto derivatives are restricted. This means that users in some major markets cannot access this feature through the Base App for now, and compliance boundaries remain the core constraint for product expansion. From a market impact perspective, Coinbase's choice to integrate external liquidity rather than build its own matching engine reflects that leading trading platforms prefer to quickly connect to mature liquidity networks in the derivatives sector to capture market share. As an emerging on-chain perpetual contract platform, Hyperliquid is expected to further expand its penetration among institutional and retail users by leveraging Coinbase's distribution channels. However, high-leverage perpetual contracts come with relatively high levels of valueBTC accumulated consolidation zone energy for more than two months and exploded after breaking through 6.56 last night~ e-coin surged over 20%. Chart 1: Weekly level support at 6.56, resistance at 8.25. For a true bull return, my personal view is that the weekly close must be above 8.25. Chart 2: Daily level support at 6.65, resistance at 7.38. Currently, this momentum surge shows no signs of stopping or weakening~ Friends who missed this wave should not FOMO or short just because of the big rise. Until the consolidation zone indicated by the arrow in Chart 3 appears and breaks down, I suggest refraining from shorting! The market is strongly running up. The only visible support (pullback) below now, besides the daily level 6.65, can only be found by combining hourly K-line structures. But honestly, there is no obvious resonance level yet; more K-line structure is needed here~ For those still in the market or entering on the right side, the upper target is around the daily level 7.38-7.45. This is both the weekly Fibonacci 0.618 level and a daily resistance level. (Short positions wanting to test the waters should wait for the price action here.) In the current market, frankly, it’s best to stay out as there aren’t many entry opportunities in BTC. But you can look at some altcoins with strong, well-structured leaders. For example, Hype already competed fiercely with e-coin last night, rising over 20%. So, which sectors haven’t started yet? Or which altcoins have just broken out of major structures? The market has opportunities every day, although this level of surge...#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
FOMC minutes released with a 9:3 vote, 3 officials advocating for a direct rate hike, internal divisions remain high, let's discuss the real impact on $BTC and $ETH
📌 Market Analysis
Although the rate was kept unchanged this time, 3 members voted against, demanding a rate hike, signaling a covert hawkish stance. The core logic: inflation stickiness hasn't disappeared, high rates will be maintained longer, future data still keeps the option of rate hikes open, not a complete shift to easing. BTC and ETH are risk assets sensitive to USD liquidity:
1) Short term: The market has already priced in some hawkish expectations, likely to see a "bad news is good news" pulse rebound, but the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. If US Treasury yields and the dollar index strengthen again, it will directly suppress the upside for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
2) Medium term: The committee's division means the market is highly tied to US CPI and employment data. If data surprises again, rate hike expectations will heat up, putting downward pressure on BTC and ETH; only a sustained decline in inflation will open the door to a true bull market.
3) Divergence in strength: BTC spot ETF institutional sentiment will be affected by macro disturbances; ETH also faces additional volatility from on-chain staking and DeFi funds, resulting in greater fluctuations than BTC, with higher elasticity on the upside and deeper pullbacks on negative news.
We are currently in a macro divergence window, with news repeatedly stirring the market, so avoid chasing highs. Bitcoin suddenly surged, and Trump gave it a push from behind
This time BTC suddenly shot up from over 60,000 all the way back to 70,000 dollars, and Trump indeed added fuel to the fire.
On August 19, Trump directly met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly urged Congress to quickly advance the CLARITY Act. The US's attitude toward continuing to embrace cryptocurrency has become very clear.
However, the real ignition this time was the US Treasury expanding long-term Treasury buybacks. After Treasury yields dropped, market liquidity expectations changed instantly.
Plus, after BTC broke through, shorts were continuously liquidated, ETF funds flowed back in, and several positive factors appeared simultaneously, directly pushing BTC back to 70,000 dollars.
So this surge is not simply Trump calling for a rise; it’s a resonance of policy, liquidity, capital, and short squeeze all together.
If Trump continues to push crypto regulatory bills later and 70,000 dollars can hold steady, I think this round of the market can indeed start to be viewed with a longer-term perspective.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Dogecoin
Reference benchmark: 2026-08-20 Market reference price approximately $0.075
✅ 【Support Levels | Downtrend Holding Zones】 (from near to far)
1. Weak support (short-term first defense): $0.070
Short-term consolidation center; breaking below here signals short-term weakness and likely quick retest of the next level
2. Strong support (key daily buy zone): $0.065–0.067
Recently stabilized dense trading zone, the dividing line between bulls and bears in this round of the market
🟡 【Resistance Levels | Uptrend Pressure Zones】 (from near to far)
1. First resistance (immediate near-term pressure): $0.080
First short-term hurdle; volume must increase and hold above to open upward space
2. Mid-term core resistance: $0.10
Major psychological barrier and historically heavy trading zone, an important test for bulls
3. Mid-level target (strong bull market + positive catalysts): $0.11–0.12
Price breakout alone is useless; volume must be considered: volume significantly increases when hitting resistance for breakout to be valid; low volume rallies tend to fall back.
❗ Most important risk: do not over-leverage!!!! In the past two days, Bitcoin has surged violently. Many people think it's purely due to news impact, but after scouring the news, there are no major positive developments. Essentially, it's a chain short squeeze in the futures market, clearly shown by the liquidation map. Liquidation map data: orange bars represent short position liquidation points. As the price rises, it triggers short position liquidations at corresponding price levels. From 69,000 upward, each level accumulates a large number of high-leverage short positions, with 50-100x leverage accounting for a very high proportion. Every time the price breaks through a level, short positions get liquidated, and market buy orders continue to push the price higher, forming a strong short squeeze rally. This is the main force behind this surge. Looking at multiple timeframes together: On the 15-minute level, RSI has entered the high overbought zone, MACD shows a violent volume increase, and short-term bullish momentum is fully released. But overbought does not mean an immediate reversal; in a short squeeze, overbought can persist, and there is still liquidity above that hasn't been consumed. The 1-hour and 4-hour structures have completely turned upward. Since the recent low at 62,500, lows have been rising continuously, and the trend has switched to bullish dominance. On the daily level, the price has retaken key moving averages, with medium-term resistance near previous highs above. Looking at liquidity positions: Above, there is liquidity from short orders waiting to be consumed between 72,200-73,000. There is a thick accumulation of short position liquidations here. If bullish momentum continues, this area will be further consumed, pushing the price higher. Larger-scale short order liquidity is concentrated near 74,500, which is the ultimate heavy resistance zone for this short squeeze. Below, the defense level for long position liquidation is the first key support at 69,100-69,200. If the price effectively falls below this... This looks more like a broad repricing than a BTC-only breakout. With BTC above $71,900 and ETH leading the 24-hour move, capital is moving further out on the risk curve rather than staying concentrated in the most liquid asset.
My stance is constructive, but the speed matters. Double-digit gains across BTC, ETH and SOL compress the margin for error, so the next useful signal is whether strength holds after the initial impulse, not whether momentum can extend for another session.
Not advice, just analysis.$HYPE surged 20% in one day, seriously overbought, bearish down to 62, add short positions at 75. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
What does this mean for the crypto space? Three levels.
Narrative level: The U.S. government has shifted from "regulatory crackdown" to "reserve buyer." This shift is more important than any single policy.
Policy level: The CLARITY Act + strategic reserves + Hyperliquid compliance + new financing regulations—a combined set of measures launched simultaneously, systematically establishing a regulatory framework.
Capital level: Shorts are being crushed; $1.42 billion liquidated in the past 24 hours, with $1.33 billion from short positions. This big bullish candle is the result of short covering plus positive policy resonance.
Here’s my take.
Bitcoin jumped directly from 64,000 to 72,000, and sentiment is indeed high. But don’t get carried away by one bullish candle—Trump said "discussed," not "executed." The scale, timeline, and funding source of the U.S. government buying crypto have not materialized. This big bullish candle reflects trading expectations, not trading reality.
But the direction of expectations is clear—the U.S. government is shifting from "crypto enemy" to "crypto friend." As long as this narrative is not disproven, the market’s pricing logic will continue in this direction. Next, we’ll see if capital can keep up and whether the CLARITY Act will really pass on September 15.
Be patient; the opportunity for us to short is not far off yet
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Today, the $OKB that should have risen the most barely moved, while BTC, which shouldn't have risen, went up 11%.
This kind of "beta failure" is especially common with platform tokens.
OKX revenue model: contract fees + spot rebates + RWA channel + on-chain staking. In the past 30 days, OKX revenue has risen as much as BTC has, but the platform token transmission has a 3-6 month lag.
Last week, I had dinner with someone inside OKX, and he said, "Q3 business is good, but OKB burn data will only be released in Q4." The meaning is clear: fundamentals are improving, but the token price won't reflect it immediately.
Institutional mindset: wait for the burn data release before pricing. Retail mindset: BTC rose today but OKB didn't, so quickly switch.
Both logics are correct, just different timelines.
Medium-term bullish, short-term no rush. Wait for burn data or exchange announcements as catalysts.
Buy small positions at 100-103, defend at $95. Catalysts are the Q3 burn announcement at the end of September or the X Layer mainnet upgrade. Be patient.
Platform tokens don't follow beta, they follow fundamentals—but fundamentals have a lag.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC price surged to 72000, merely extending the rebound driven by existing funds. Two core doubts in the article remain unresolved:
1. Incremental funds issue
Short-term rallies can be achieved through on-exchange fund rotation and short-term ETF buying. Only with a steady long-term increase in trading volume and a continuous influx of new off-exchange funds can the bull market foundation be solidified; relying solely on existing funds for relay limits the sustainability of the rise.
2. Market differentiation pattern remains unchanged
BTC alone is rising sharply, while most altcoins have not strengthened in sync, failing to form a broad-based rally. In a structural market, the stronger Bitcoin’s one-sided rise, the more long contract positions accumulate. The higher the price, the greater the probability of sudden sharp drops and long-short liquidations.
Two confirmation signals need continued observation:
① Continuous net inflow of ETF funds for multiple days
② Broad market recovery across many coins
As long as these two points do not occur simultaneously, this rally is still defined as a rebound, and significant profit-taking at high levels can happen at any time. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
9 to 3, Fed officials clearly argued in the minutes, with no consensus reached on whether to raise rates
Goldman Sachs also added that the possibility of a rate hike in September is very low, effectively adding another factor to this risk-on wave
Is this good for crypto? I actually think it's a double-edged sword—the dollar being too weak does boost liquidity, but as long as officials keep insisting on rate hikes verbally, the stock market and BTC could shake at any moment
So my judgment is, Bitcoin just broke 69,000, the trend is upward, but before this macro noise settles, don't go all in at once; keep some ammo to add on once the direction is clearer
$BTC $BTC This is simply a short squeeze rally
The core driving force behind the recent surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum $ETH is an epic short squeeze
Be cautious when shorting!
About $2.98 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with short liquidations around $2.74 billion, and Bitcoin shorts about $1.42 billion.
· Over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within just one hour, the largest scale since 2021.
· Three Hyperliquid accounts suffered combined losses of $194 million.
⚠️ Key warning: Coinbase premium index remains negative, indicating that demand in the US spot market has not yet returned. This rally is mainly driven by leverage rather than spot buying support. Glassnode warns that on-chain data is still in the "surrender phase," and until the realized profit-loss ratio surpasses 2, any rebound should be considered a local bounce rather than a fundamental trend reversal.
Macro policy and regulatory tailwinds (core catalysts)
Trump administration's combo moves:
· Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Payward, Blockchain.com, etc., at the White House, urging Congress to pass the "Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act" (Clarity Act). The Senate Banking Committee chair indicated the bill might advance to procedural voting by September 15.
· Trump revealed plans brewing for a large-scale Bitcoin reserve program.
· The SEC proposed a new "Regulation Crypto Assets" framework allowing qualified projects to raise up to $75 million every 12 months, establishing a safe harbor mechanism for tokens to exit "investment contract" classification.
Treasury liquidity easing:
· The US Treasury announced doubling the liquidity support repo scale for 10-30 year Treasuries, raising the per-operation cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.
· The 30-year Treasury yield retreated from about 5.22%, and the dollar weakened, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
It's easy to get trapped chasing a parabolic short squeeze rally; wait for the market to stabilize before entering.
Resistance above: watch the 74,000-75,000 range
Support below:
Support near 68,500, a key level confirming breakout validity
Strong support zone around 66,800-67,200
The above are personal views for reference only
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #Bitcoin A routine rebound from the bottom greatly increases the probability of successful bottoming within the range. As for the bull rebound? Not so fast! The long-dormant crypto market has seen an accelerated rise in the Asia-Europe session, seen by many as a bull rebound. Originally, I didn't want to pour cold water on everyone, but looking at the daily Fibonacci chart, you'll find that it has only just broken out of the bottom range and hasn't even completed an initial rebound yet. In fact, after the February 6 low, BTC price completed a routine rebound within 41 hours, and after a subsequent breakout rebound, a new low of 58,000 was still reached. Of course, this is not to be bullish or to intimidate everyone. From my perspective, a conventional rebound or a strong breakout above 74,200 is good for bottoming out the range. Once the rebound is completed and the rebound doesn't break new lows, the 58,000 range is basically complete. However, to insist that a new trend has started now is still a bit far-fetched. Right now, it's obvious that the sentiment in the Asia-Europe market toward macro policy + the White House crypto meeting is driving the market. The rise is accompanied by shrinking volume. Next, we need to watch for selling pressure concentrated at 74,200, which could easily lead to short-term downside risks. #BTC突破69000美元 even end the rebound trend directly, how far can this rally go? After all, the current macro positive news is time-sensitive. The White House crypto meeting only changed policy expectations without much actual policy support, which is also time-sensitive. So as time approaches next week, this positive trend is likely to become a thing of the past. Next, we can watch #BTC price performanceBTC and ETH Surge: Bull Market or Short Squeeze?
$BTC reached $69.5K, $ETH surged to $2,259, but it is still too early to declare a new bull market cycle. This move was partly driven by Treasury repo, yield declines, and over $1 billion in short liquidations. However, this is not quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve remains cautious, and real yields stay high. $BTC needs to maintain sustained strength above $69K with genuine spot demand—not just leverage-driven. The rebound momentum is strong, but the next move still needs to be confirmed. $BTC $ETH $OKB Many people have asked if I can analyze ETH again, so here is another analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
(Actually, I’m more optimistic about $BTC now. ETH has rallied so much, but BTC clearly hasn’t kept up. I guess it will start to rise soon. Are there any brave ones charging ahead?)
1. The trigger is the U.S. Treasury
The scale of long-term bond repurchases has directly doubled to at least $4 billion each time, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield immediately dropped by 10 basis points. The hand choking the crypto market has loosened, and the bulls who were suppressed all summer have instantly bounced back. Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $71.47 million on the same day, with institutional funds turning from outflows to inflows — this signal is even more valuable than the price increase itself.
2. This rally is supported by "fuel"
In 24 hours, 175,000 people across the network were liquidated, with short liquidations exceeding $1.7 billion, the second largest short squeeze in history. The largest single on-chain liquidation was $108 million, from a main address called pension — a heavily short position under the name of a pension fund, showing serious confidence. After shorts were forcibly liquidated, they were forced to buy back, which in turn pushed the price up, causing more liquidations and further price increases.
3. My judgment
RSI has reached 83, overheated and overbought, so chasing higher at this point is not cost-effective. The key is the 2200-2300 range: if it holds, 2400-2500 is within reach; if it breaks below 2100, this rally will be just a spring dream. My plan is to wait for a pullback to 2200-2250 to stabilize before continuing to enter in batches. Good meals aren’t afraid of being late, and good men aren’t afraid of waiting. Those already on board can hold. BTC can be bought, just be bold and go for it. My personal feeling: the rise will start this afternoon or tonight.FOMC minutes 9 to 3, yet BTC surged past 70,000: Who does the market really trust?
This minutes report should have cooled down risk assets: 9 votes supported keeping rates unchanged, 3 votes sided with a rate hike, showing more disagreement than the market expected. But the market completely ignored the script, with BTC pushing from around 64,000 all the way to 71,369 USD, up 4.11% in 24 hours; ETH was even more dramatic, surging to 2,275 USD, a gain of over 9%.
Watching this rally, my first reaction wasn’t "the Fed turned dovish," but that the market is trading something else: the Treasury raised the single-repurchase limit on 10–30 year U.S. Treasuries from 2 billion USD to at least 4 billion USD, causing long-term yields to fall, and liquidity expectations temporarily outweighed rate hike disagreements. But note, repos are not QE.
Add in concentrated short covering, and prices naturally move faster than the news.
So is this rally the start of a bull market, or a short squeeze amid policy conflicts? For now, I lean toward the latter. BTC’s real proof of strength isn’t just hitting 70,000, but holding 70,000 on a pullback; ETH’s key level is 2,250—holding that is needed to have confidence to push to 2,400.
Brothers, do you trust the Fed’s 9 to 3 vote, or the price that’s already surged past 70,000?
$BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Bitcoin surged past 70,000 overnight, and everyone is shouting "bull is coming." Has the bull really arrived?
From the data, it certainly seems so. Bitcoin jumped over 8% in a single day, reaching 70,000 at one point; Ethereum was even more dramatic, rising nearly 20% intraday, shooting from 1900 straight to 2300. Short positions across the entire network were liquidated in 24 hours, with over 2.7 billion in liquidations.
The last time Bitcoin rose more than 7% in a day was in April this year. This wave has directly recovered all the losses from the past two months, with prices returning to early June levels. The total market cap increased by 7.2% in one day, from 2.26 trillion to 2.45 trillion. Secondary altcoins saw a rare almost all-green day.
Before this wave, CZ posted a tweet implying he believes the bottom is already in; Wang Chun even boldly declared the slogan "the bear market is over."
But in my view, this still looks more like a rebound rather than a reversal.
The three positive factors driving this market rise are all somewhat exaggerated. The market rally is driven by speculation on expectations, not by what these positives can truly deliver.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 August 20 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis
The core driving force behind Bitcoin's current rally has shifted to expectations of regulatory improvements, with macro factors taking a backseat, creating a divergence pattern of "hawkish news, rising coin prices." BTC surged violently from 64k to around 70k, with nearly $3 billion liquidated in a single day, representing a large-scale short squeeze. Shorts were forced to cover, pushing prices up, dominated by non-spot funds, raising doubts about sustainability.
Ethereum experienced an epic short squeeze with an 18% single-day surge. The core driving forces are the US Treasury's expansion of Treasury repurchase operations, the SEC's new crypto asset regulations, and the White House crypto summit, all resonating positively. The short-term cost-performance ratio for chasing highs is extremely low.
Operation advice:
Short $BTC $ETH $SOL on rebounds to 71,000-71,500 #BTC breaks through $69,000, how far can this rally go?
$BTC Breaking down the BTC breakout is more interesting than just focusing on the 11% increase. In the past 24 hours, Binance perpetual open interest increased by about 3.5% in BTC quantity but rose nearly 15% in USD nominal value; at the start of the sharp rally, contract quantity briefly fell by about 1.7%. This means the initial surge clearly involved short position reductions and squeezes, not just new leveraged longs pushing prices up.
Subsequently, the ratio of active buy orders remains around 1.25, and the funding rate is only 0.01%, so the structure is temporarily favorable to the bulls; the risk is that the top long positions have already risen to 61.2%. In the short term, it is expected to first digest positions between 70,000 and 72,500. Only a volume breakout above 72,500 would create conditions to extend to 74,000–75,000; if price and open interest weaken simultaneously and fall below 69,200, then beware of a retreat in this short squeeze rally.$DOGE is also rising, but this is Beta, not love, don’t get carried away.
Last night DOGE pulled from the dead box at 0.070 up to 0.076 in one move, a +7% daily gain, with 24-hour volume increasing from 300 million to 750 million. It looks like a breakout, but this wave has nothing to do with DOGE itself. No Musk, no payment adoption, no ETF news—purely BTC short squeeze lifting the entire alt sentiment. It’s the easiest high beta meme coin to be swept by funds.
Technically, it’s a real breakout. The 0.068-0.070 range had been resistance for almost two weeks, and 0.074-0.075 was strong resistance, which was directly broken last night. But the problem is, the previous wave on 8/19 we labeled as "do not touch"—pure meme, no catalyst, Bollinger Bands extremely tight. Today’s move just opened the box but didn’t change the essence of "no own story."
Buying it lets you get a taste, but don’t treat it as the main course yet. The temperament of meme coins is that when BTC retraces to 66,600, DOGE will give back a large part of its gains.BTC surpasses $68,000, with over $1 billion in short liquidations — now the real variable in the market is not the sustainability of the rally but the speed of derivatives position reshuffling. After the short squeeze ends, will there still be enough buying power to support $68,000? Bitcoin surged from the $64,000 range to break through $68,000. During the rally, more than $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within an hour, fueling the price increase. The market is currently at a crossroads, debating whether this surge is just a short squeeze or the start of a new trend. Looking at the structure of the liquidation event, this rise is the result of an imbalance in the derivatives market. The accumulated short positions near $64,000 were forcibly liquidated once the price broke a certain level, turning into buying pressure. This means that leveraged positions in the futures market acted as an amplifier for the price surge. Therefore, the current price level is driven more by the reshuffling of positions in the derivatives market than by spot demand. Now the key is $68,000 🇺🇸 Trump's statement "End the war on Crypto" is truly worth paying attention to, and it's not just a slogan.
More importantly: the U.S. stance on the crypto industry is changing.
In the past, Crypto was more like a financial risk that needed to be restricted; banks were treated cautiously, and capital faced regulatory pressure.
Now, the signals from the U.S. are becoming increasingly clear:
Banks can enter, capital can enter, and financial infrastructure can be rebuilt around Crypto. (Reuters)
This means that future competition may no longer be about "whether Crypto can exist," but rather:
Who can first integrate BTC, stablecoins, tokenization, and on-chain finance into the dollar system.
If this direction continues, BTC's identity may further evolve—
From a pure investment asset to an important foundational asset in the U.S. digital financial system.
So, what’s truly worth focusing on is not "the war is over."
But rather:
After the war ends, the U.S. begins to compete for the discourse power over the next generation of financial infrastructure.
And this may be the real big opportunity for BTCFi. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 The moment BTC surged to 68K, I wasn't as excited anymore. Who exactly is paying off debt for this rally? To be honest, watching the market this morning, my first reaction wasn't "the bulls have returned," but rather "the bears have been swept again." BTC surged from around 64K to above 68K in one go, liquidating over $1 billion in short positions within an hour. This speed is not something natural buying can build. Don't rush to buy it—here are a few details worth breaking down. The core of this rally isn't "BTC has gotten stronger," but rather "the bears are too crowded." When leveraged funds repeatedly test and add positions to short positions between 64K and 66K, once the price breaks through a certain threshold, the liquidation engine automatically takes over, pushing the price higher. So the 68K you see now is partly genuine buying and partly mechanical momentum from forced liquidation. But here's the problem: the biggest fear in liquidation-driven markets is that there will be no relay in the future. - If it can hold above 68K for three days and ETH and altcoins start to strengthen in tandem, it indicates that funds are truly returning, and risk appetite is indeed rising. - If BTC is hanging alone while altcoins are falling negatively, then this wave feels more like a leverage reset than a trend reversal. From my own observation, the main focus should currently be placed on the strength of the sector. BTC is strong, ETH is barely keeping up, and the altcoins are highly divided. This structure often means that major funds are still hesitating, only using BTC$SPCX is approaching its second major share unlock tonight, involving approximately 319 million shares, or around 2.4% of the company’s total outstanding shares. For comparison, the first unlock took place on August 6, when roughly 912 million shares were released. That event coincided with the earnings report, creating a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern. Before the earnings release, $SPCX climbed from around $120 to $140. After the unlock, however, the stock reversed sharply and The hotter the market, the more important position management becomes. Here's a simple and executable framework to share:
1️⃣ Single coin cap 30%: No matter how optimistic you are, a single coin should not exceed 30% of the total position to prevent a single black swan event;
2️⃣ Contract margin ≤10%: The total margin for leveraged positions should not exceed 10% of total funds, so even if liquidated, it won't hurt your capital;
3️⃣ Three-layer capital method:
• Base position (60%): BTC/ETH and other mainstream coins, held long-term without moving;
• Swing position (25%): Follow hot rotations, take profits and exit;
• Cash (15%): Always keep bullets ready, only qualified to bottom-fish during crashes.
Two iron rules:
• No borrowing, no leverage for bottom-fishing — this is the number one cause of liquidation;
• Take partial profits when floating gains exceed 50%, only realized profits count.
In a bull market, everyone is a stock god; in a bear market, you find out who's swimming naked. Your position is your swimsuit.
(Original content, not investment advice, DYOR)
#PositionManagement #DryGoods #BTCBreaks69000USD How far can this rally go? #FedJulyFOMCMinutes 9-3, officials still divided on rate hikes $BTC $ETHWhy is $BTC rising this time?
Just after mentioning the "triple drivers," let me elaborate a bit more; this time, the landscape may need to be reassessed.
Looking back at the market trends over the past few years, every truly meaningful trend rally in Bitcoin has had to meet three conditions simultaneously: clear regulation, loose macro liquidity, and inflow of incremental capital.
This time, it seems all three are moving in a positive direction.
First layer: regulation has shifted from "confrontation" to "dialogue." The SEC has proposed a "safe harbor" for token financing for the first time, and the White House crypto summit has changed from "crackdown" to "guidance." The establishment of these fundamental rules is more important than any short-term positive news.
Second layer: Bitcoin's macro attributes are evolving. The drop in U.S. Treasury yields is a short-term sentiment, but the long-term logic of fiat depreciation under a $1.8 trillion deficit is gradually turning Bitcoin from a "risk asset" into an "alternative asset." Names like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan appearing on ETF holder lists are not here for short-term speculation.
Third layer: pricing power is shifting. Although the coin price fell in Q2, institutional ETF holdings grew counter-trend by 7.5%, indicating that chips are concentrating from retail investors to large holders. "The bull's quick return" can be a slogan, but "what you bought, how much you bought, and where your stop loss is" are the keys to whether you survive to the next round.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Brothers, I am Xiao Ai from the OKX planet.
It is now 5 PM on August 20th. More than ten hours have passed since last night's frenzy of liquidating $1.191 billion worth of short positions.
Many people see BTC steady at 69,400 and ETH hovering around 2,250, and start itching inside: "Is it stable now? Can we chase?"
Xiao Ai's answer is straightforward: this kind of 'calm after a surge' is scarier than last night's rally.
Last night was "violent aesthetics," today is "psychological warfare."
Last night, the main force used the $1.191 billion short liquidation orders as fuel to push the price to the doorstep of 70,000. What is the main force doing in this afternoon's market? They are "testing the market."
Look at the 15-minute K-line chart; the current trend is a typical "low-volume sideways consolidation." The price can't fall, indicating that the profit-taking positions from last night haven't exited yet; the price can't rise, indicating that the 70,000 round number resistance is real. This "can't go up, can't go down" situation is most exhausting for the bulls' patience.
Here is a harsh truth: it costs the main force to push the price up, but it costs nothing to dump it down.
Last night, pushing the price from 64,000 to 70,000 cost the main force billions of dollars; now, to distribute chips at the 69k level, they only need to withdraw buy orders and let the market naturally fall back. At this afternoon's time (end of Asian session, start of European session, before US session), liquidity is relatively scarce. The main force chooses to "hold sideways" during this period, waiting for the US retail investors with FOMO (fear of missing out) to enter after the US market opens.
Looking at the technicals, although RSI has fallen from last night's high of 87, it is still above 70 in the overbought zone. On ETH's 4-hour chart, the MACD red bars are shortening, and the fast and slow lines show a death cross trend. This technical pattern is called "bullish momentum exhaustion" by traders.
More importantly, volume. Last night's surge was "huge volume," today's sideways consolidation is "extremely low volume." Price increases without volume are rogue moves; sideways consolidation without volume is "bull trap."
Brothers, Xiao Ai will not predict price direction today, only logic:
If BTC cannot break above 70,000 with volume and hold after the US market opens tonight, then last night's high is the short-term top.
If BTC breaks below the 69,000 support, the correction target will be 67,500 (the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of last night's rise).
The current market is like a stretched rubber band. Last night’s pull was too strong, now it needs time to repair. There are two ways to repair: one is sideways consolidation, exchanging time for space; the other is a quick correction, exchanging space for time.
My advice to brothers remains: control your hands and fasten your seatbelts.
1. Spot traders: If you held at the low last night, you can now set a "trailing take profit," for example, automatically exit if it retraces 5% to lock in profits.
2. Futures traders: This "low-volume sideways" is a leverage killer. The main force only needs a 1% fake breakout to kill both longs and shorts. It is recommended to stay out of the market and wait for a clear direction after the US market opens.
3. Those out of the market: Patience is the greatest virtue. If it truly breaks 70,000, you only miss the tail of the fish; if it truly corrects, you protect your principal.
Finally, Xiao Ai must repeat the compliance disclaimer:
This article is only a personal review note, compiled based on public market data (CoinGlass/OKX snapshots), does not constitute any investment advice, does not guide account opening, does not promise returns, and does not provide managed services. Digital assets are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be responsible for your own funds.
Last night, we witnessed the short-sellers' tragedy of $1.191 billion;
Tonight, we may witness whether the bulls can hold their ground.
I am Xiao Ai, on the OKX planet, accompanying you to understand the swordplay behind the market.I thought “VIP signal teacher Trump” was just a meme. Then the headlines hit. Trump is pushing the US toward a more crypto-friendly regulatory framework, backing the CLARITY Act and aiming to keep America at the center of the global crypto industry. The CFTC is also reportedly exploring a compliant path for Hyperliquid in the US — and $HYPE reacted instantly. Now the bigger picture makes sense: BTC had liquidity expectations from the US Treasury repo side. Trump added a fresh layer of regulatoryReviewed the 205 coins on Alpha that have perpetual contracts but no spot market, median drawdown is -44%. To put it simply, half of them are hovering around the halving line, and only 24 have truly broken through 70%.
So this isn't a drop to a position where no one wants them, it's stuck halfway up the mountain—not quite up or down, the most uncomfortable kind.
Looking at the chips: 84 are inverted with retail investors more bullish than whales, while whales are long on only 47. After halving, retail investors are still adding in; I lean bearish on this structure. The entire sector's open interest is just $1299M, the market is too thin, so the rebound can't gain momentum.