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From the data, it indeed arrived: Bitcoin surged over 8% in a single day, once touching 70,000; Ethereum was even more dramatic, rising nearly 20% intraday, jumping straight from 1900 to 2300. The entire network's shorts were bloodied within 24 hours, with liquidations exceeding 2.7 billion. The last time Bitcoin rose more than 7% in a day was in April this year. This wave directly recovered all the losses from the past two months, with prices returning to early June levels. The total market cap increased by 7.2% in one day, from 2.26 trillion to 2.45 trillion. Secondary altcoins showed a rare almost all-green performance. Before this wave, CZ posted a tweet implying he believes the bottom has been reached; Wang Chun even outright declared the slogan "the bear market is over." However, in my view, this is still more of a rebound than a reversal. The three bullish factors driving this market rise all have exaggerated elements behind them. The market rally is driven by speculation on expectations, not by what these positives can truly deliver. 1⃣ Ministry of Finance expanding long-term bond repurchases — this is the most direct and primary reason for this wave. The logic is straightforward: rising government bond yields increase interest expenses and widen the fiscal deficit, prompting the government to intervene with repurchases, causing yields to drop sharply. Government bond yields are the denominator in all valuation models; when the denominator falls, capital naturally spills over from bonds back into risk assets. Meanwhile, gold also rose back to 4500 — gold and Bitcoin are the two assets that most directly counteract currency depreciation. However, the Ministry of Finance's repurchase only raised the single repurchase limit; the quarterly total remains unchanged. Moreover, the funds come from issuing new short-term debt — selling short and buying long, essentially a swap.$HYPE surged 18% in a single day to around $72 due to the White House's mention of compliance expectations for entering the US market, then profit-taking quickly occurred, and the correction continued to widen. This high-volatility asset driven by news moves fast up and down, and the battle within the current price range will determine the short-term direction. If the CLARITY Act passes the Senate vote smoothly in September, the compliance narrative can still support the valuation midpoint; however, the 9-3 hawkish split in the FOMC minutes suppresses risk appetite. If BTC falls below 71500, HYPE, as a high-beta asset, will likely experience a larger pullback than mainstream assets. Next, focus on whether trading volume can continue to expand around $72, rather than relying solely on sentiment to sustain it.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在$WLD The safer LONG is:
Entry: $0.355–$0.359
Confirmation: 15m/1H bullish rejection and reclaim above ~$0.359
SL: $0.340
TP1: $0.369–$0.371
TP2: $0.377
TP3: $0.385
Extended: $0.400$DOS understood, crypto players now have no interest in high-tech, high-market-cap, high-VC projects because they have experienced FLOKI, PEPE, IRDI—these low-market-cap coins skyrocketing dozens of times. So now they are not interested in those high-market-cap VC coins. Concepts like real-world asset tokenization (RWA), top-tier high-performance L1 universal new public chains—although these projects sound grand and impressive, to players they are irrelevant and hold no interest. Instead, these crypto players prefer grassroots culture and coins that can make a comeback.$XRP surged from around 0.98 to 1.3443 within 24 hours, then rapidly fell back to the 1.23-1.25 range, with a volatility exceeding 30%. Currently, both bulls and bears are densely opening positions near 1.25, with 50x and 100x leverage positions existing simultaneously. The outcome of the battle at this price level will determine the direction for the next few days.
First, let's look at the priority of driving factors. BTC has risen above 72000 and is maintaining sideways movement in the 72400-72600 range, which is the core external condition for XRP's current breakout from the 0.98 bottom. XRP's daily increase is 12.88%, far exceeding SOL's 1.56% and DOGE's 7.04% in the same period, indicating that funds have made a clear concentrated choice among mainstream altcoins. However, the retracement speed from 1.3443 to 1.23 is also astonishing, signaling a loosening of high-level chips.
Bullish scenario: If BTC continues to consolidate above 72000 or even pushes toward 73000, and XRP stabilizes in the 1.23-1.25 range before rising back above 1.28, then a second test of the previous high at 1.3443 is possible. The trigger condition is BTC not breaking below 71500 and XRP closing continuously above 1.25 on the four-hour chart. The invalidation signal is BTC falling below 71000 or XRP dropping below 1.20 and failing to recover within one hour.
Sideways scenario: BTC repeatedly tests the top near 72000 without breaking through or sharply falling. Under this environment, XRP is likely to oscillate widely between 1.20 and 1.30, with high-leverage long and short positions being repeatedly liquidated. The variable to watch is whether XRP's four-hour volume continues to shrink—if volume rapidly declines, it indicates a delay in directional choice and an extended range-bound battle.
Bearish scenario: BTC falls from 72000 to below 70000, or ETH quickly breaks below 2200 from above 2300, putting overall altcoins under pressure. In this case, XRP is likely to lose the 1.20 support, with the downside target at the 1.10-1.05 range. The trigger condition is BTC closing below 71000 on the four-hour chart. A variable to note is ETH, which is currently also retreating from a high near 2315; if ETH weakens first, XRP's decline may be faster than expected.
The biggest risk in the current market is the density of high-leverage positions on both sides. According to data, 50x and 100x positions ranging from 200,000U to 330,000U are opened long and short in the 1.23-1.28 range. Any rapid breakout in either direction could trigger a chain liquidation, amplifying volatility. This means that even if the directional judgment is correct, the intermediate spikes could exceed expectations.
The two most critical variables to observe in the next 24 hours are whether BTC can hold 71500 and the direction of XRP's four-hour volume changes near 1.25.
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在If you're writing crypto threads, breaking down projects, or explaining concepts online you're already doing the entry-level version of a real Web3 job.
Here's what it actually looks like
What it is creating educational content, research reports, or project breakdowns that help people understand Crypto & Web3 for an audience, a protocol, a media outlet, or a DAO.
Who pays for it: protocols hire writers for blog posts and documentation. Research firms and media outlets pay for project analysis. DAOs sometimes fund contributors who produce educational content for their community.
How people usually start: by building a public track record first consistent, accurate content on X, Substack, or Mirror. Projects and outlets look at what you've already published before they pay you to write more.
The skill that actually matters here isn't fancy writing it's accuracy. Getting facts right, citing sources, separating verified information from speculation. That's what makes content worth paying for instead of just another opinion.
Realistic timeline this isn't a week one" income stream. Most people build 3-6+ months of consistent public work before opportunities start coming either inbound someone reaches out or through direct outreach.
If you're already doing threads like this one, you're not starting from zero you're building the portfolio that gets you paid for it later.
Anyone here already earning from crypto content or research? What did that first opportunity look like?$POPMART ’s latest earnings look strong on the surface: H1 revenue reached ¥17.17B, up 23.8%, while net profit rose 10.1%. That gap matters. LABUBU is cooling, while Star People has surged nearly 6x. The bigger test now is whether POP MART can keep rotating between multiple IPs instead of relying on one blockbuster. Six IPs already generated more than ¥1B each, showing the IP incubation engine is working. But overseas growth is losing momentum, leaving the domestic market to carry more weight. SDon't see this rally as the "last struggle"—it is precisely proof of Bitcoin and Ethereum returning to their original purpose.
The 2008 global financial crisis shattered trust in traditional banking. Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin $BTC whitepaper with the vision of creating a decentralized peer-to-peer transaction system that does not rely on trust or central authority. In 2014, Vitalik Buterin published the Ethereum whitepaper, aiming to build a permissionless, neutral, and transparent "world computer" that expands blockchain from simple value transfer to complex social and financial collaboration.
More than a decade later, these original intentions are being validated one by one by market demand.
Bitcoin has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins and an annual inflation rate of only 0.8%, far lower than gold's 1.7% and the US dollar's average annual growth of 4% over the past five years—the "digital gold" attributes of anti-inflation and censorship resistance have never been clearer. When the US Treasury expands debt repurchases and long-term yields fall, capital naturally flows to hard assets. When the White House formally includes digital assets in national financial strategy discussions, "decentralization" is no longer just an ideal but a real option in an era of sovereign credit uncertainty.
Ethereum $ETH's Turing-complete smart contracts have taken DeFi, asset tokenization, and on-chain settlement from concept to a trillion-dollar market. It is not a "tech toy" but an operating system reshaping global financial infrastructure.
This is not a struggle; it is the fulfillment of historical logic.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ 📜 July FOMC Meeting Minutes Released: More Than 3 Members Wanted a Rate Hike, Internal Debate Was Heated
On August 19, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the July 28-29 meeting. The surface result was a 9:3 vote to keep rates unchanged, but the truth revealed in the minutes is far more complex than the voting outcome.
The official dissenters were Harker, Kashkari, and Logan. However, the minutes show that "several" participants advocated for a rate hike at the time, believing that price pressures were broad-based. Two other regional Fed presidents without voting rights also expressed support for a rate increase. More notably—"many" officials believed that if inflation does not come down, policy tightening might be necessary in the future.
Inflation concerns are at the core. Officials described the inflation outlook with four words—"highly uncertain." The minutes mentioned three upward factors: tariff pass-through, energy costs related to Middle East conflicts, and overall demand driven by AI development. Some officials felt that the current financial conditions were "not sufficiently restrictive" to push inflation back to 2%.
Waller also proposed a bold idea—to reduce the number of annual policy meetings from eight to six, believing it could allow for more information gathering and give policymakers more strategic thinking time.
After the minutes were released, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, and the VIX dropped 6%. The probability of a September rate hike has fallen from over 70% at the end of July to about 36%. Although the minutes leaned hawkish, retail sales, nonfarm payrolls, and other data released after the July meeting have weakened, and the market is no longer buying it.
The minutes show division, but the data is making decisions for the market. This tug-of-war won’t stop before September.
$BTC Behind Pump.fun's daily revenue of tens of millions of US dollars: less than 1% graduation rate for millions of tokens, can retail investors really make money in this gamble?
On-chain data is brutally revealing the harsh and bloody truth behind the Meme coin frenzy.
The Solana ecosystem token issuance platform Pump.fun's daily fee income has repeatedly surpassed the $10 million mark, even surpassing the combined global daily fees of Ethereum mainnet and Uniswap multiple times.
Across major communities, myths of turning a few dozen dollars into tens of thousands are widely spread, making countless retail investors envious and excited, rushing into various internal launch pools, fantasizing about becoming the next lucky one to catch a hundredfold golden dog.
However, according to hardcore data from Dune's on-chain penetration statistics, the reality is suffocatingly cruel:
Among the millions of Meme tokens issued on the platform, less than 1.2% successfully complete the bonding curve and graduate to launch on Raydium.
Even more shocking is that among all independent retail wallets participating in trading, the proportion of addresses that ultimately achieve a cumulative net profit exceeding $1000 falls below 0.5% across the entire network.
This means that over 99.5% of the trend-following retail investors across the network have been serving as precisely harvested liquidity fuel throughout this seemingly lively frenzy.
Why are retail investors almost certain to lose in the industrialized assembly line Meme token issuance ecosystem?
The answer lies in the game's inherently negative expected value (Negative EV) meat grinder design:
First, millisecond-level plundering by high-frequency sniper bots.
At the 0th block of each new pool creation, professional quantitative market-making teams and sniper bots have already locked in the cheapest chips through private RPC nodes and bribes. By the time retail investors see the token on the front-end interface and manually click to buy, the price has already been raised several times by bots and the DEV repeatedly placing orders.
Second, ruthless dumping by dark multi-wallet wash trading.
Issuers (DEVs) often pre-position large shares through dozens of dispersed anonymous clean addresses. Once retail investors follow the trend and push the market cap to tens of thousands of dollars, the whales will smash the liquidity pool in a very short time by splitting orders in batches, leaving chaos behind.
Coupled with the platform's mandatory 1% fee on every transaction and slippage losses caused by extremely high-frequency trading, retail investors' principal is rapidly eroded through repeated chasing of rising and falling prices.
This is not a community revolution of value discovery but an on-chain vampire casino completely dominated by algorithms and bots.
Facing such an extremely asymmetric and brutal game, my own operating principle is very firm:
Strictly define Meme coin speculation as entertainment consumption, never get carried away, and never invest more than 1% of my total position. Rather than giving money to bots in an internal meat grinder with a win rate of less than 0.5%, anchor core chips in infrastructure with real commercial barriers and deterministic cash flow.
In the Meme frenzy with a win rate below 0.5%, is your current record profit or floating loss? Facing the harvesting routine of assembly line launches, will you continue to participate in internal dog-catching?
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The above content represents only personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ZEC has a slight pullback, just a normal adjustment.
On the chart, $563, down 1.37%, with an intraday high of 596 and a low of 547. In the past two days, it surged from around 510 to 596, up over 80 dollars, so today's pullback is completely reasonable. The volume has shrunk compared to yesterday, indicating that it's just profit-taking, not panic selling, so no need to worry too much.
Data perspective:
· Up 15.4% in 7 days, still making big gains this week.
· Up 10.8% in 30 days, a good return for the month.
· Down 7.4% in 90 days, but rapidly recovering.
· Up 128% in 180 days, long-term holders are still making substantial profits.
· The super trend line is at 493, price firmly above it, the bullish trend remains intact.
From a technical standpoint, 547 is today's low and short-term support. If it can hold above 550, after consolidation it can push above 600 again. The resistance above is at 596; breaking through that points to a target range of 620-650. If 547 doesn't hold, it may pull back to 520-530, but this won't change the medium-term upward trend.
Trading strategy:
Those holding should continue to hold, moving stop-loss up to 530. Those looking to enter should wait for a pullback to 545-550 without breaking it before buying, or wait for a volume breakout above 600 to chase. Those already in should hold steady and not be shaken out by this small pullback.
$ZEC has risen solidly from just over 400 to nearly 600. Today's pullback is on low volume, a typical healthy correction. As long as the overall market doesn't crash, it's highly likely to continue its upward momentum after this adjustment.$BTC IS BACK AT $70K — BUT DON’T CONFUSE A SHORT SQUEEZE WITH A NEW BULL RUN.
Bitcoin has bounced back hard, and every small dip is getting bought almost immediately. That looks strong — but I’m still not convinced $70K is safely secured.
A big part of this move came from shorts getting squeezed and forced to buy back higher. Now that BTC is around $70K, many trapped holders finally have a chance to exit at breakeven. That means fresh buying is facing a wall of potential sellers.
#DailyOrbit $BTC
Everyone is looking for the reasons behind BTC's rise, and there are actually three core factors:
First, the pressure on U.S. debt is increasing. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond once surged above 5.3%, hitting a multi-year high. As the world starts worrying about how to handle the $40 trillion debt, the market naturally begins to seek assets that are "not easily diluted." Gold and Bitcoin have re-entered the investment spotlight.
Second, the U.S. regulatory stance has changed. The SEC recently proposed a regulatory framework for crypto assets, shifting from mere crackdowns to designing compliance pathways for Crypto. This is the biggest change for institutional funds.
Third, Wall Street is really entering the market. At last night's White House Crypto summit, SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood, Kraken, Chainlink, Nasdaq, NYSE, CME, and DTCC all appeared.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC Today's Bitcoin surge is not fundamentally about Bitcoin itself.
Don't rush to call it a bull run; let me walk you through the logic.
The trigger was the U.S. Treasury stepping in. The 30-year Treasury yield soared to a 2019 high, above 5.3%—who can withstand that? So the Treasury doubled its long-term bond buyback from $2 billion to $4 billion, directly suppressing yields. As interest rates dropped, money flowed out of Treasuries and back into risk assets—Bitcoin happens to be in that pool.
Then came the short squeeze. Too many shorts in the market; after months of decline, everyone formed a mindset that a rebound was a shorting opportunity. But in just 4 hours, $1.4 billion in shorts were liquidated, forcing shorts to buy back to cover, pushing prices higher—this is a short squeeze.
Think about it, really think about it—Dao Ge has spoken!
But honestly, most of this rally comes from forced buying, not active allocation. Those liquidated buyers are done; they won't come back tomorrow. Strategy rose 13% today, Coinbase 11%, but both are still down over 35% year-to-date—a one-day rebound can't fill a year's gap.
The $69,000 level is critical. If it holds, the story continues; if not, today is just a rebound.
I've been in this market for 12 years, and I only believe one thing: if you don't know why it goes up, you won't know why it goes down. You have to be on one side or the other.
#BTC breaks $72,000, can this rally continue? #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
On August 20, $POPMART Pop Mart released its mid-2026 financial results. The core signal of this report is: after the LABUBU craze subsided, Pop Mart is undergoing a "gear shift" in growth momentum — moving from a single blockbuster-driven model to support from a multi-IP matrix. Whether this transition can succeed is currently the market's main focus.
📊 Performance Overview: Proactive Slowdown, Quality First
In the first half of the year, Pop Mart achieved revenue of ¥17.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%; adjusted net profit was ¥5.16 billion, with a net profit margin of 30%.
However, this result is significantly below market expectations (previously forecasted revenue of ¥19.98 billion and net profit of about ¥6.64 billion). More notably, profit growth (10.1%) lagged behind revenue growth (23.8%), and gross margin slightly declined from 70.3% to 69.7%.
CEO Wang Ning candidly admitted at the earnings call: "It is very likely we will not meet the 20% growth target set at the beginning of the year," and positioned 2026 as a "year of consolidation" for the company — focusing on strengthening fundamentals and optimizing channels rather than pursuing short-term scale expansion.
🎯 IP Matrix: LABUBU "Retreats," Twinkle Twinkle "Takes Over"
The change in IP structure is the most noteworthy highlight of this report.
· THE MONSTERS family, to which LABUBU belongs: revenue was ¥4.454 billion in the first half, still ranking first but down 7.5% year-on-year, with revenue share dropping from 34.7% to 26%. This is a cyclical phenomenon reflecting the normalization of blockbuster IP heat.
· Twinkle Twinkle: revenue surged from ¥389 million to ¥2.65 billion, an explosive 580.6% increase, becoming the second largest IP. The Valentine’s Day "Heartbeat" series sold out in seconds, with hidden edition second-hand prices nearly 13 times higher.
· Other IPs blossomed comprehensively: CRYBABY (¥1.63 billion, +34%), DIMOO (¥1.62 billion, +46.5%), SKULLPANDA (¥1.55 billion, +27.1%), Hirono Ono (¥1.01 billion, +38.5%). Six IPs exceeded ¥1 billion in revenue in the first half, and 11 IPs surpassed ¥100 million.
🤔 Can Multiple IPs Take Over? — Three Positive Signals and Three Concerns
✅ Positive Signals
Signal 1: The IP incubation system is validated. Twinkle Twinkle grew from ¥389 million to ¥2.65 billion in just one year, proving Pop Mart’s ability to continuously incubate new IPs.
Signal 2: Revenue sources are more diversified. The concentration of top IPs has decreased, significantly reducing the company’s reliance on a single blockbuster.
Signal 3: Plush category rises. Plush product revenue reached ¥9.825 billion, up 60% year-on-year, accounting for over half (57.2%) of total revenue for the first time, surpassing figurines as the largest category.
⚠️ Concerns
Concern 1: Top concentration remains high. THE MONSTERS’ revenue is 1.7 times that of second-place Twinkle Twinkle; LABUBU’s popularity changes still heavily impact the overall situation.
Concern 2: Overseas business under pressure. Overseas revenue was ¥4.972 billion, down 11.6% year-on-year. Both Asia-Pacific (-9.7%) and Americas (-16.5%) declined.
Concern 3: Online traffic dividend fades. Overseas online revenue sharply declined — Asia-Pacific -39.8%, Americas -45.6%, Europe -59%. The company is shifting from relying on social media buzz to refined store operations.
🌍 Regional Differentiation: China Leads, Overseas Adjusts
· China market: revenue ¥12.2 billion, up 47.3%, with share rising from 59.7% to 71%. Online revenue increased 62.7%, and the self-developed box-opening machine app surged 83.3%.
· Overseas market: offline stores continue to expand (net increase of 36 stores), but online contraction largely offset offline growth. Europe and other regions achieved 5.9% growth driven by offline expansion.
💎 Summary
Pop Mart is transitioning from the "LABUBU era" to the "multi-IP era." The explosive growth of Twinkle Twinkle proves the effectiveness of the IP incubation system, and six IPs exceeding ¥1 billion indicate the matrix is taking shape. However, LABUBU remains the absolute leader, overseas online channels are collectively slowing, and profit growth lags behind revenue growth — the multi-IP relay has taken shape but is still some distance from being "securely caught."
Wang Ning’s candidness is noteworthy: "Last year we indeed had luck; many unexpected traffic sources brought very rapid performance growth, but also exposed many internal management issues." The company’s first announcement of a HKD 2 billion to 5 billion share repurchase plan also conveys long-term confidence.
Pop Mart is experiencing the growing pains of shifting from "blockbuster-driven" to "system-driven." Whether multiple IPs can truly take over may only be answered by the full-year 2026 financial report.
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The above content is only a summary of financial report information and market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. 140U Challenge to 10000U｜Day 130
Initial principal: 140 USDT
Current total assets equivalent: 21522.78 CNY, today's profit -479.21 (-2.17%)
Starting from 140U aiming for the 10,000U goal, now on day 130, the account has experienced a slight pullback. Trading cannot always be all green candles; pullbacks are part of live trading. It also makes me question myself again: what is a trading system, and what truly belongs to your own trading system.
Collecting indicators everywhere and copying others' strategies is not your own system.
A trading system is a big framework: what market conditions to trade, what to avoid, position limits, stop-loss standards, minimum risk-reward ratio, setting all rules clearly.
Your own trading system is adapting this framework to fit your own mindset and capital tolerance. A strategy that works well for others but you can't hold positions with it, then it doesn't belong to you.
I have also been thinking: does compounding rely on a moment of insight or on accumulated live trading experience? Insight can enlighten you, but only experience honed through countless wins and losses can turn paper rules into instinct. Epiphany is just a beam of light; long-term accumulation is the path forward.
Brief market bullish/bearish analysis:
BTC: Overall large timeframe remains bullish, short-term entering consolidation and correction. Resistance above is obvious; if it cannot hold above key resistance, it will continue to test support below; only by holding resistance can the upward momentum restart. The consolidation phase is not suitable for chasing highs or panic selling; wait for clear structure before acting.
ETH: Moves in tandem with BTC, showing weakness. Bulls need to break above resistance to continue the trend; if pressure persists downward, it will further test support zones. Frequent short-term shakeouts and false breakouts increase; open positions must strictly use stop-loss.
SanDisk SNDK: After a prior short squeeze surge, now in high-level consolidation digestion. Bearish chips accumulate, sudden sharp spikes can occur anytime; upward requires sustained volume to rally again; once volume breaks support, a correction will follow, so blind chasing longs is not advisable.
SK Hynix: Moves with altcoin sector, volatile. Heavily influenced by overall market sentiment; upward depends on mainstream coins leading; if the market weakens, its pullback will be larger. It is a high-risk asset, suitable only for small position speculation.
Today's account slight pullback of -2.17% reminds me more: after continuous profits, risk control is easiest to relax. Even if you understand the structure, you can't withstand emotional heavy positions.
The winning short position at GPS high point was a signal from the system; today's pullback is a reminder from the market. There is no always correct judgment, only risk control that must always be upheld.
Compounding is not about a single huge profit, but about your own trading system, making big gains and small losses through cycles of market moves. Accept pullbacks, respect the market, and continue steadily toward 10000U. WE’RE SO BACK?
$BTC just ripped through $70K and pushed above $72K, while $ETH delivered an even stronger move, climbing nearly 18% toward $2,300.
But the move isn’t happening in isolation.
U.S. Treasury bond buybacks reportedly increased from $2B to $4B per operation, pushing yields lower and helping fuel a rotation toward risk assets.
Then came the squeeze.
More than $3B in crypto positions were liquidated as shorts got caught on the wrong side of the move.
Spot BTC ETFs also saw more than $517M in inflows, adding another layer of demand.
This is exactly why crypto can move so violently.
One shift in liquidity expectations → yields react → risk appetite returns → shorts get squeezed → momentum accelerates.
The big question now:
Is this the beginning of the next bull leg, or just a powerful relief rally?
I’m bullish on the momentum, but I’m not chasing vertical candles.
Let $BTC hold the breakout, let $ETH confirm the strength, and watch whether liquidity starts rotating into altcoins.
If those pieces align, things could get very interesting.
Are we finally back?$ETH
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元
1. Plain-language breakdown of the news: The confidence not to fall and the root cause of the inability to rise
Four core reasons why the bottom can be firmly supported and a deep drop is unlikely
1. US Treasury liquidity easing, the overall environment has become thoroughly accommodative (the fundamental backing)
The US Treasury Department doubled the long-term bond repurchase quota starting September, causing long-term bond yields to plunge and the dollar to weaken. With fewer easy gains from US Treasuries, large amounts of capital have exited the bond market and flooded into crypto and US tech stocks. As long as Treasury yields don’t suddenly rebound sharply, the strong foundation of this rally won’t collapse; if prices fall, funds will immediately step in to buy, making a cliff-like crash very unlikely.
2. The regulatory sword hanging overhead has been put away; Ethereum benefits even more than BTC
Ethereum’s biggest concern was being targeted by the SEC and nearly classified as a security, making institutions hesitant to buy. Now, the SEC has issued new rules granting regulatory exemptions to mature public chains; the White House is urging Congress to expedite the CLARITY Act, eliminating panic over regulatory crackdowns. Institutional funds that were previously cautious have now massively entered, which is key to Ethereum’s recent outperformance over Bitcoin.
3. Ethereum ETFs have finally stopped bleeding money and are now buying in with real capital to support the price
In recent months, ETFs were continuously redeemed, but on August 19, there was a net inflow of nearly $190 million in a single day—the largest in nearly ten months. Leading asset managers like BlackRock have started to buy back in batches, steadily raising the support level. Even if there is a short-term pullback, it’s difficult for selling pressure to intensify and weaken the market.
4. Massive short positions have been liquidated, significantly reducing short-term selling pressure above
After breaking the key $2100 level, many leveraged short positions on Ethereum were liquidated in a chain reaction. Shorts had to buy back to close positions, forcibly pushing the price from $1900 to a high of $2334, clearing out more than half of the short resistance above in the short term.
Current hard issues blocking a further surge at $2310
1. Nearly 20% surge in two days, too rapid, profit-taking is underway
A few hundred dollars gained in just two days, short-term bottom-fishing funds have made substantial profits. After reaching the $2334 high, many took profits and sold, and buying momentum couldn’t keep up, causing the price to slowly fall back to $2310. Technical indicators are seriously overbought, so a pause for sideways consolidation and cooling of overheated indicators is necessary.
2. All positive factors have been realized at once, no new explosive news to follow
US Treasury easing, regulatory relaxation, ETF inflows, and short covering—all four major positives have been fully digested. Now only existing funds are trading back and forth, with no new major macro news, so the upward momentum is clearly insufficient.
3. The bill is only an expectation and won’t be enacted soon; large institutions won’t chase highs
The US Congress is still in recess; the regulatory bill will only start its process in September and won’t take effect soon. Large institutions have a unified approach: buy on dips, but will not add large positions above $2300. This rally is supported by short-term speculative funds and short covering; long-term incremental funds are absent, making sustained new highs difficult.
4. The Federal Reserve keeps options open; inflation data could overturn the easing trend anytime
The Fed has clearly stated that if inflation data rebounds, it can restart rate hikes. Upcoming US CPI and nonfarm payroll data, if strong, will cause Treasury yields to rise sharply, quickly cooling this rally driven by rate cut expectations. This is the biggest medium- to long-term risk.
2. Plain-language market analysis, key price levels to distinguish strength or weakness (current price $2310)
1. Intraday short-term strength/weakness dividing line: $2280
Current price $2310 is above this level, firmly holding $2280 means today will be a high-level, slightly strong consolidation with small ups and downs; if volume breaks below $2280, short-term buying enthusiasm will cool immediately, and price will head toward the core support at $2200.
2. The most important defensive bottom line for this rally: $2200
This was a resistance level for several months, which after breaking has become a strong moat for bulls. As long as $2200 is not decisively broken, the uptrend remains intact; if $2200 is lost, this short squeeze rally will end in the short term, returning to a $2000-range consolidation.
3. Immediate strong resistance: $2330 ~ $2400
The intraday high and previous trapped positions concentration zone. To break new highs and restart a big rally, volume must push and hold above $2400; currently stuck at $2310, it is heavily suppressed by selling from this zone.
4. Mid- to long-term resistance: $2500
Requires continued weakening of Treasury yields and sustained large inflows into Ethereum ETFs over many days; unlikely to reach in the short term.
Market summary
The daily chart has completely broken out of the long-term weak $1850-$1950 range, with the mid-term trend turning from weak to strong; however, hourly momentum is exhausted, and rallies meet selling pressure.
In short: the bottom is very solid and a big drop is unlikely; new highs are hard to achieve, entering a consolidation phase after a big rally.
Short-term trading range: $2200 — $2400
3. Three most likely subsequent scenarios
1. Highest probability: sideways tug-of-war between $2200 and $2400
If Bitcoin holds above $70,000 and Treasury yields remain stable, Ethereum will oscillate within this range. Profit-taking from the big rally will be digested slowly, overbought indicators repaired, following Bitcoin’s small fluctuations, mainly consolidating with no big moves up or down.
2. Another surge to challenge $2400 and test $2500
Two conditions must be met simultaneously:
① Treasury yields continue to fall, the dollar does not rebound, and US inflation data shows no negatives;
② BTC firmly holds above $71,000, and overall market risk appetite remains strong;
Only with volume pushing and holding above $2400 is there a chance to reach $2500; missing one condition means the rally is likely a false breakout.
3. Start a wave of pullback, giving back some gains
If Treasury yields rebound, Bitcoin falls below $71,000, and ETH breaks the short-term lifeline at $2280, it will further test the key support at $2200; if $2200 is decisively broken, price will quickly fall back to the $2000-$2050 range to repair this rally. NVIDIA is attempting to reshape market expectations in China with a compliance-structured LPU inference chip, but the supply chain's stocking impulse is clashing head-on with the local entry approval uncertainties.
Risk appetite around $NVDA capital is being reactivated, and the market is beginning to price in expectations for small-batch shipments starting by year-end.
Although the compliance design enabled by technology licensing bypasses computing power downgrade restrictions, it shifts greater uncertainty onto the policy review and local substitution game between the two regions.
Whether order intentions can smoothly convert into actual revenue entirely depends on the pace of entry permit implementation; the causal transmission between the two remains to be confirmed.
If early orders are delivered on schedule and no regulatory resistance emerges, the capital reallocation toward the hardware sector will strengthen the valuation midpoint, but if shipment pace delays, this momentum will quickly fade.
If entry approval drags on without progress, the bullish positions betting on incremental space from early-stage negotiations will face concentrated expectation corrections, and risk aversion sentiment will accelerate the suppression of short-term preference.
What truly needs caution is the impact of tightened policy reviews on the risk premium of tech assets, which would directly invalidate all optimistic scenarios based on the shipment window.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether regulators in both regions release the first clear tone signal regarding the compliance of this architecture.
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
Two-day surge: The core logic behind the rally of $BTC and $ETH
In the past two days, the crypto market exploded across the board, with Bitcoin rising over 11% in 24 hours; Ethereum's performance was even more aggressive, with a nearly 20% increase in 24 hours, leading the mainstream coins. During the same period, over $3.3 billion in liquidations occurred across the network, with more than 90% being short positions.
This round of the market rally is the result of multiple factors resonating together. The most direct catalyst came from U.S. regulatory developments: Trump convened a crypto industry summit to push the CLARITY Act, combined with the CFTC's alternative regulatory proposals advancing simultaneously, significantly easing the long-standing policy uncertainty suppressing the market; the SEC also relaxed compliance requirements for startup project issuances, continuously improving industry fundamentals expectations.
On the macro level, the U.S. Treasury increased long-term bond repurchase operations, driving long-term U.S. Treasury yields to quickly fall from high levels, opening a valuation recovery window for global risk assets. Crypto assets with longer durations are particularly sensitive to marginal changes in liquidity.
Ethereum's gains significantly outpaced Bitcoin's because, first, after the market risk appetite rebounded, funds spread to more elastic assets; second, clearer regulations provide stronger marginal benefits to the Ethereum ecosystem, offering greater valuation recovery potential.
On the derivatives side, short squeezes acted as an amplifier for the rally, with massive forced liquidations of short positions creating positive buy-side feedback, combined with increased Bitcoin ETF volumes and institutional capital entering simultaneously, jointly driving this rapid rise.
Short-term upward momentum is sufficient, but uncertainties remain regarding the progress of the legislation and the sustainability of U.S. Treasury yields Is Bassett's rescue of U.S. Treasuries effective? The fact proves it is, but it still cannot truly save the U.S. Treasury crisis! After the Treasury Department's policy announcement, the yields on short-term, 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year long bonds all fell briefly, but the key point is that in the subsequent 20-year U.S. Treasury auction, signs of weak demand appeared. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 On the day of Bassett's rescue, during the 20-year Treasury auction, the actual winning bid yield was 5.204%, while the 20-year Treasury yield before the auction was 5.199%. This means the Treasury Department had to offer an additional 0.5 basis points to sell the long bonds. This data obviously slapped Bassett in the face, indicating that Bassett's previous long bond rescue was only effective for short-term sentiment. However, as investors, they do not trust the current duration yield and require the Treasury Department to offer higher rates to choose to buy. This sign at least proves that Bassett's rescue had already become ineffective at that time! Tonight, Bassett continues to speak, mentioning several points that make me feel like a forced attempt to save face: 1. Emphasizing that the 30-year Treasury's liquidity is too poor, and the yield increase is not only due to inflation and economic growth issues. 2. The Treasury Department has a powerful set of tools for the government bond market; this mechanism can recall $4 billion more strongly and effectively (I have a sharper knife in hand). 3. The repurchase quota is not necessarily fixed at $4 billion; the announcement clarified at least $4 billion, not a fixed $4 billion, opening future expectations. 4. Emphasizing part of the $4 billion... 📊 先看现状：冰火两重天 比特币周三暴涨超8%，突破70,000美元，创6月以来最高。以太坊更猛，24小时涨超20%，站上2,300美元。Solana相对温和，在76-80美元区间蓄力。 存储股这边画风完全不同——闪迪8月18日单日暴跌9%，美光跌7%，SK海力士盘中跌近10%。闪迪年内最高涨到2354美元，一度腰斩至1119美元，现在反弹到1600-1741美元区间反复摩擦。 同一个市场，两种剧本。谁对谁错？ ⚔️ 曼施坦因战略理论：闪电战 vs 弹性防御 二战名将曼施坦因的核心思想是两种战略形态的切换：“闪电战” ——集中兵力、快速突破、一击致命；“弹性防御” ——主动后撤、诱敌深入、等待时机、伺机反扑。 比特币和以太坊正在打“闪电战” ——空头爆仓17亿、ETF持续流入、特朗普喊单、财政部放水、SEC松绑——五股力量同时发力，价格直线拉升。这是典型的集中兵力突破防线。 存储股正在打“弹性防御” ——业绩炸裂但股价暴跌，利好出尽就是利空。闪迪Q4营收89.7亿、同比暴增372%，但下一季指引105.5亿低于预期的108亿。市场在说： “你考了99分，但我想要100分。” 于是先撤Pop Mart is still growing, but the growth engine is clearly cooling. Revenue beat-up is less impressive when profit growth lags, overseas demand weakens, and LABUBU momentum fades.
The bullish angle is IP diversification: Star People’s surge shows new characters can take over. But 2026 looks more like a consolidation year than another hyper-growth year.
**Bottom line: growth is shifting from LABUBU-driven hype to a broader IP ecosystem.**Bitcoin breaking through $72,000 drives sentiment in crypto concept stocks, with US stock $CRCL rising for two consecutive days to around $84. The core issue lies in whether the crypto market's short squeeze rally can be converted into liquidity support backed by actual USDC issuance.
Market data shows that after a surge of over 9.5% on August 19, on August 20 during US trading hours, $CRCL rose from $79.5 to a high of $85.28, maintaining a strong hold around $84, with trading volume expanding in sync with the crypto market breakout. The strengthening of US tech stocks and the crypto market has formed a cross-market linkage. During the consolidation of US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, capital is concentratedly repricing crypto risk premium assets.
The driving forces in order are: the crypto beta premium triggered by Bitcoin breaking $72,000, the revaluation of concept stocks brought by the rebound in US stock risk appetite, and capital expectations for stablecoin scale expansion. The intraday 7% and previous day’s over 9.5% consecutive gains confirm that short-term momentum is fully dominated by the resonance of risk appetite between US stocks and the crypto market.
The bullish scenario trigger condition is Bitcoin holding above $72,000 and extending toward $75,000, accompanied by a weakening US dollar index and macro liquidity release. Under this path, it is necessary to observe whether the $85.28 high can be broken with high volume; a failure signal would be a rapid outflow of funds from the crypto market and a sharp drop in concept stock turnover.
The bearish scenario trigger condition is the abrupt halt of the crypto market short squeeze rally causing profit-taking, or USDC actual issuance growth falling short of expectations. At this time, $84 will face resistance, and breaking below the $79.5 starting point indicates locking in of chasing funds; a failure signal would be Bitcoin surging again with increased volume.
If the US stock interest rate environment suddenly tightens causing a US dollar rebound, the cross-market linkage logic will be interrupted, and valuation recovery will face correction.
In the next 7 days, key observations should focus on Bitcoin’s turnover rate above $72,000, changes in actual USDC issuance, and the US dollar index trend.
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在$DOGE gained +11.56% that day, reaching a high of 0.08351, pulled up sharply from 0.07243, looking like the start of a new rally. But the signals from the contracts side aren't as aligned: open interest only increased by 5.38% during the same period, while the price rose 11.56%, with the growth rate less than half, indicating that the price push was not driven by new leveraged long positions but by spot buying combined with short sellers capitulating and closing positions. The long-short account ratio is more direct: 24 hours ago it was 4.25, now it dropped to 3.49; during the price rise, the proportion of long accounts actually shrank, meaning some are taking profits while the price rises. The funding rate is 0.0001, with longs paying no premium, so it’s neither crowded nor overheated. My judgment is that without leveraged buildup, the upward correction won’t trigger a crash, which is good, but also without additional capital stepping in, it’s easiest to get stuck after the surge. In the next 24 to 48 hours, just watch two numbers: whether open interest can keep up, and whether 0.08351 can hold. If open interest continues to lag while the price hovers around 0.08, a pullback is inevitable; if it truly breaks below 0.0750, this breakout should be considered null.The latest White House crypto meeting feels bigger than another round of political support for Bitcoin. What stands out is who was in the room: regulators, major exchanges, financial institutions and leading crypto companies. The conversation is increasingly shifting from “Should crypto be regulated?” to “How should crypto fit into the financial system?” One of the biggest pieces to watch is the CLARITY Act. Clearer rules around the roles of the SEC and CFTC could give institutions more confidenLet's chat about $SNDK and $SPCX in the early morning.
SPCX, few can match Elon Musk's storytelling ability.
Rockets, Starlink, AI, satellites, and data centers under construction—he can tie all these hot concepts to SPCX. The business itself is real, and Starlink has actual revenue, but the market's valuation has already set aside current profits and factored in over a decade of imagination.
Although it is already listed on Nasdaq with public financial reports, the valuation premium brought by Musk's personal IP remains heavy. As long as he speaks publicly, the market directly prices in expectations for the next few years.
Whenever I see content hyping SPCX, I wonder how much of the long-term story is already priced into the current stock price.
As for SanDisk, the demand for AI storage is evident, and performance growth is visible.
However, recently the company has continuously released various business targets, stirring market sentiment, yet the stock price has dropped from 1780 to 1550.
Good news keeps coming out one after another, but the stock price keeps falling.
For SNDK, I’m watching 1550; if it breaks below, I’ll look at 1500 and 1450; if the rebound stalls between 1600-1650 and can’t break through, I’ll look for a shorting opportunity.
For SPCX, which is driven by sentiment, I won’t chase sudden rallies triggered by unexpected good news; I’ll wait until the hype cools down and the price falls back before considering it.
I’m not denying either company; precisely because their businesses have solid support, the stories are easily amplified by the market.Closed the long grid profit on Bitcoin, from a maximum floating loss of 1100% to a profit of 100%. The original take-profit point was set at 100,000, but why close the position right after breaking even? Mainly because the volatility was too low, with an arbitrage annualized return of 5.54%. Secondly, there is the issue of funding rates, with an annualized funding rate of about 2.06%, resulting in a combined annualized return of 3.48%. For Ethereum opened at the same time, with roughly the same running duration, the arbitrage annualized return is 18.33%, the funding rate annualized is 0.79%, and the combined annualized return is 17.54%. Therefore, Bitcoin is still more suitable for spot buying and not suitable for grid trading. $BTC The most dangerous piece on the chessboard is not the one currently delivering check, but the one quietly guarding the king's flank, waiting for the opponent to expose a weakness. Last night, the Federal Reserve quietly advanced such a pawn across the river.
The 9-to-3 vote resembled a brilliant Sicilian Defense—most chose a closed position, while the three rebellious knights, Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari, launched a wing attack. Their desired 25 basis point rate hike was not an isolated charge but a reassessment of the entire pawn structure. Yet grandmasters understand that until inflation is truly checkmated, any premature promotion is a risky gamble.
The 67% probability of holding steady given by CME is more like the surface calm on the board. True masters glance at the position and immediately sense the undercurrents: AI infrastructure financing is a floating pawn hanging on e4; stock valuations are overextended bishops; Treasury volatility is a dark line ready to penetrate the king's flank at any moment.
The market behaves like a novice eager to exchange pieces, seeing soft CPI and weak employment as an opportunity to simplify. But professional players treat every pawn as a potential queen. Every twitch in Treasury yields is the opponent probing your king's flank defense; every breath in AI valuations could become a deadly passed pawn in the endgame. Soft data is not a safety certificate; it is space deliberately conceded by the opponent, tempting you to make a greedy move.
True players do not repeatedly ask "whether to adjust," but rather "after adjustment, does my piece structure remain balanced?" The interest rate range of 3.5 to 3.75 is a carefully arranged pawn formation. The nine who chose to hold their ground did not do so because they failed to see the risks, but because they calculated that twenty moves ahead, the weakest move now is precisely the strongest defense. Waiting for inflation to collide with your pieces, waiting for long-end yields to lose support on a critical square, waiting for the AI bubble to become like a bishop trapped on its own color, unable to turn.
Restrained moves are never weakness but a deeper form of offense. When the market opens that 67% playbook, true hunters have already quietly adjusted their rook and queen positions within the 33% variation. They watch how you respond to the next check.
The tension in the pawn chain will not disappear, only shift position. Every round of exchanges means new threats emerge, and when the pawn structure on the board is completely shattered, any defense becomes as fragile as paper. The real question now is not whether inflation will reprice risk assets, but whether you, as a player, have already foreseen that twenty moves later, your king will still be on a safe square. Where the king sits depends on whether you dare let the opponent check first, then look back to see if your queen is hanging on a neglected diagonal. #FOMC9To3Split The settlement monitoring piles nailed at the construction site collectively issued deformation alarms today — the old building of gold, which has laid its foundation for more than half a century, is pushing the eaves to a new measured elevation of $4500. This is not ordinary renovation; the load-bearing system is taking a deep breath.
While market watchers focus on the candlestick charts, I look at the structure. The world's largest gold ETF increased holdings by 9.41 tons in a single week, bringing total inventory to 1034.65 tons — this is like pouring a segment of slightly expanding concrete into the core tube. China's 53 gold funds have grown to 424.2 billion RMB in scale, expanding by 26.8 billion RMB in a single month, equivalent to adding a full ring of shear walls with hidden columns around the podium. The incremental funds are not bottom-fishing but performing structural reinforcement.
UBS's blueprint hangs at $5000, with the completion node locked in the first half of 2027, which is the optimistic limit estimated by the design institute. Wells Fargo, on the other hand, has lowered its expectations for the next two years, like a geological survey report pointing directly to the loosening of the bearing layer.
Current geological conditions are quite cooperative. A weakening dollar equals a sudden reduction in lateral earth pressure in the foundation pit; a decline in U.S. Treasury yields is equivalent to reducing wind load on the tower; and a deficit fiscal policy is like a rising groundwater level, buoying the entire building upward. These three forces act in the same direction, so workers are still stacking higher floors.
But I have been watching the indicators from the wind tunnel tests on the east and west sides. Once the long-term yield reverses and rises, it means the lateral wind vibration coefficient suddenly amplifies, and even the strongest cast-in-place shear walls will face resonance tests. When risk appetite heats up, the first to flood the site are retail investors chasing the top; they stand not on load-bearing components but on composite slabs that have not yet solidified and cured.
I open the hundred-meter level and press my sight down to the plumb line at the base of the tower crane. The plumb line has only one reference: gravity. It ignores the scales on the blueprint and the elevation forecasts from consulting firms. Wherever it is placed, the structure is there.
If the plumb line is off, then no matter how shiny the curtain wall is, it is just an exterior finish for cracks. #goldreclaims4500Today, rumors circulated in the market that Trump was calling for cryptocurrency purchases. At first, I thought it was a joke, and some even joked, "VIP teacher calls Trump to buy orders." But when I checked the news, it turned out to be true. No wonder Bitcoin and Ethereum, the brotherhood, have surged so fiercely. I would call Trump the "strongest blonde haircut single teacher"! 😂 But upon closer analysis, this time is far more than just "Trump says a word, BTC will rise a bit." Trump has now publicly and clearly stated that the U.S. will end its crackdown on the crypto industry and push for the CLARITY Act, aiming to keep the U.S. the global crypto hub. At the same time, he mentioned that the CFTC is studying legal entry for Hyperliquid into the U.S. market, $HYPE immediately surged. Now my view on $BTC is clearer. Previously, the U.S. repurchased Treasury bonds raised liquidity expectations, and last night Trump added regulatory expectations. These two logics resonated, pushing BTC directly toward the 70,000 mark. This is no longer just a sentimental pull, but rather a U.S. policy move to reprice crypto assets. I'm also becoming more optimistic about $ETH. BTC is responsible for driving market takeoff, while $ETH amplify risk appetite. This time, ETH surged as much as 18% to nearly $2,250, clearly stronger than BTC. So my judgment is straightforward: BTC leads the rally, ETH follows, and $HYPE is responsible for high elasticity. I dare not conclude whether the bull market has officially started, but at least for now, everything is moving in a positive direction! Risk warning: EncryptionBTC and ETH: Divergence in this market cycle, which has greater elasticity?
This breakout cycle shows clear divergence: Bitcoin is the market's stabilizing anchor, while Ethereum exhibits significantly stronger elasticity. In this rebound, ETH's gains have substantially outperformed BTC.
Bitcoin, digital gold, institutional ballast
The core narrative is value storage, mainly driven by spot ETF funds, macro liquidity, and improved US regulatory expectations.
Institutional large capital prioritizes BTC allocation. Market characteristics: earliest to start, more stable, better resilience during downturns amid volatility. However, its downside is obvious: once the rebound reaches mid to late stages, its upward explosive power is weaker than Ethereum's. As long as the market does not face systemic risk, BTC remains the emotional anchor of the entire market.
Ethereum, the infrastructure of the entire crypto world
DeFi, Layer2, and RWA are all built on Ethereum, making it a growth asset.
In this cycle, after funds overflow from the RWA sector, part flows into BTC, while another large portion floods into ETH. Coupled with Ethereum ETF fund inflows and concentrated short contract liquidations, the upward momentum is amplified, so this rebound's gains far exceed Bitcoin's.
ETH has a higher beta, showing stronger explosive power during bull market rebounds; correspondingly, when the market pulls back, its retracement is also greater.
In summary: during the consolidation and bottom-building phase, BTC is superior; after the rebound starts, ETH shows stronger elasticity. The two rise and fall together. Early bull market favors Bitcoin; mid-cycle, watch Ethereum's performance. $BTC $ETH $BTC #The crypto market, which had been quiet for a long time, suddenly "came alive" again.
Yesterday, Bitcoin suddenly accelerated its rise, briefly breaking through $70,000, with a single-day increase of over 8%; Ethereum also climbed back above $2,200.
The most exciting part is not the rise itself.
It's that those betting on the market to continue falling are being forced into liquidation wave after wave.
Public market data shows that in just 60 minutes, over $1 billion in short positions on Bitcoin alone were liquidated. Price rises → short squeezes → forced buying → further price increases.
A typical "short squeeze" happened just like that.
Why now, of all times?
One unavoidable name: Trump.
On August 19, Trump met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and once again urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act.
One of the core significances of this bill is to try to further clarify the regulatory boundaries of digital assets.
For the long-quiet crypto market, this policy signal is very important.
It was also announced that regulators are working to legally introduce the on-chain trading platform Hyperliquid into the U.S., causing Hyper to surge 40%!
Because for a long time, the market lacked not just funds.
It lacked certainty even more.
And the Trump administration's continuous signals of "supporting the crypto industry" were like suddenly lighting a fire under the market. After the news broke, Bitcoin quickly rallied, and crypto-related stocks also strengthened in sync.
Has the market been quiet for too long? Or is overheated AI capital looking for undervalued assets? Brothers, it's 2:30 AM, and the market is still boiling. Many people woke up in the middle of the night, opened the market screen with a stunned look, no one expected that starting from around 64000, it surged all the way above 72000. An epic short squeeze is unfolding. Reviewing this round of rally, it wasn't a one-sided bull market surprise. The FOMC minutes were hawkish, the Fed's rate hike trump card hasn't been discarded, but US Treasury repos suppressed long-term yields, the dollar weakened, combined with a warm breeze of crypto regulatory expectations, multiple positive factors resonated, directly triggering the previously crowded short positions. Passive short covering brought buying pressure, forming a short squeeze cycle of "the higher it goes, the tighter it gets, the tighter it gets, the higher it goes." Now the most testing moment for human nature has arrived. Those who missed out are anxious, afraid of missing the main upward wave, unable to resist chasing higher overnight; those holding positions can't hold steady, eager to take profits and exit at the slightest pullback. Objectively speaking, after continuous rallying, the market has entered a clear short-term overbought zone, and greed is heating up rapidly. Don't shout "bull market arrival" just because of one big bullish candle. This round is a squeeze driven by sentiment plus leverage, not a complete fundamental reversal, and sudden surges and drops, as well as wick shakeouts, can occur at any time. BTC: Support at 70500, resistance at 73200. Only by holding above 73200 can bulls have further room to expand; if the rally falters, 70500 is the first line of defense. ETH: Support at 2230, resistance at 2360, elasticity continues to release, altcoin sector collectively warming up, rotation rhythm accelerating. SOL: Support at 87, resistance at 93, volatility further expanding, short-term #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
Wow! As soon as Pop Mart's half-year report came out, LABUBU instantly fell from the pedestal into the mud, tumbling and scrambling.
Big players in the crypto world and veteran Hong Kong stock investors even think this wave of trendy toys hype is no different from Dogecoin speculation—once the heat dies down, the IP immediately falls from the pedestal into the cold palace, cooling off completely.
Domestically, they are still quite strong: revenue rose by nearly half, membership surpassed 100 million, and plush toys have become the main force. In short, they are just holding the fort at home. The little bit of overseas online traffic bonus has already bottomed out, inventory turnover is getting slower and slower, gross margin is quietly dropping, and the money spent on expansion is starting to show holes in the books.
The CEO himself admitted that this year's 20% growth target will most likely fail, and even called 2026 a "consolidation year." Translated into plain language: don't expect us to keep running wildly; first, let's clean up the house.
After scanning analysts' opinions on X: this 2 to 5 billion buyback is basically cleaning up the market's mess. In the short term, it looks like bad news; in the long term, it might provide some breathing room. But with the high valuation still there, once the story is told, they have to prove themselves with real money.
Those selling emotions are no different from those selling computing power. When profits can't keep up with revenue, the market won't patiently wait forever for you to prove "I can still spin new stories." Can multiple IPs take turns? Can overseas markets rise again? Can profits catch up? If these questions can't be answered, capital will vote with its feet, and no one can complain.
In short, Pop Mart's growth is not dead; it has just been forcibly dragged from the wild party of trendy hit toys into a tough operational exam. If they fail the test, the stock price will collapse directly. Even if they pass, they have to swallow the bitter pill of slowing growth first.Michael Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that even if Congress fails to pass the Clarity Act on crypto market structure, the crypto industry will still receive regulatory rules. Selig said that the CFTC is evaluating multiple crypto regulatory measures.The hotter AI gets recently, the more I want to short two things: SNDK and SpaceX. First, about SpaceX, my biggest view on Musk is — this guy really knows how to paint a pie in the sky. Rockets, Starlink, AI, satellites, data centers, now every hot concept can be stacked onto SpaceX. The business is real, and Starlink is indeed making money, but the market valuation of SpaceX now is not just based on how much it earns currently, but pricing in stories for the next several years or even decades ahead. Especially since SpaceX itself is still a private company, liquidity is not as transparent as a public company, and the valuation carries a strong Musk personal IP premium. Wherever Musk stands, the market first factors in the imagination space for the next few years. So when I look at SpaceX now, my first reaction is not "Buy such a good company quickly," but: How much of this story has already been priced in? SNDK is actually a similar pattern. AI data centers need storage, this logic is sound, and the performance is indeed growing. But recently the company has been releasing various AI storage, SSD, QLC, and long-term growth targets one after another, and the market is too excited listening. As a result, the stock price dropped directly from around 1780 to about 1550. This is very interesting. The pie gets bigger and bigger, but the stock price starts to fall instead. So now I am bearish on both. For SNDK, I’m watching 1550; if it breaks, look at 1500, then 1450; rebound at 1600~ I'm really going to quit for staring at the market at 2 a.m.! 😭 When I first entered the circle, I was overwhelmed by all kinds of candlestick charts and blindly shorted the BTCUSDT perpetual contract, ending up losing $4.23 (not much, but it really hurt)!
👉 Here's a heads-up for beginners: never go all in! Playing with spare money keeps your mindset steadier, and leverage is definitely a no-go zone for newbies—liquidation warnings every minute!
✨ Actually, you could say I paid my tuition with this wave. Now that I know how to set stop-loss and take-profit, I'm less anxious. But watching the market really drains energy, and my phone battery dies faster than my profits.Morgan Stanley: Gold Expected to Hit $5000 by 2027
August 20, Morgan Stanley's latest assessment:
After gold prices break through $4450/oz, they are expected to reach $5000 by 2027 or earlier.
Key factors supporting gold prices:
▪ Market expectations for rate hikes fade, the dollar weakens, and demand for gold ETFs rebounds
▪ Continued gold purchases by global central banks + strong physical demand
▪ Despite high U.S. Treasury yields, gold remains resilient as the market begins to price in fiscal risks from high U.S. debt and currency depreciation
💎 Notable change in tone:
Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged until 2026 but warns that upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed officials' comments may increase market volatility.
The bank states that improving macroeconomic conditions are boosting gold ETF demand as expectations for Fed rate hikes gradually diminish and the dollar weakens. Strong central bank buying and robust physical demand further support gold prices. Despite elevated long-term yields, gold prices remain firm, indicating growing investor concerns about fiscal risks, including high government debt and potential currency depreciation.
ᕙ( •̀ ᗜ •́ )ᕗ AI Interpretation:
Morgan Stanley sets a $5000 target after gold surpasses $4450, but the timing and driving logic of this forecast deserve close attention. The bank clearly expects the Fed to hold rates steady until 2026, meaning the main driver of this gold rally is not rate cut expectations but concerns over fiscal deficit monetization and structural central bank gold buying — a subtle contrast to its January $5700 target, which was based on rate cut catalysts. Now, the tone has shifted to a "fiscal risk premium under high rates."
Comparing internal reports, Wall Street's divergence on gold prices is widening: JPMorgan was bullish up to $6300 in the first half of the year but pulled back to $4500 by July; Deutsche Bank even warned that multiple rate hikes could push gold down to $3800. The frequent revisions by major banks themselves indicate that gold pricing power is shifting from interest rate models to geopolitical and debt narratives, with volatility set to increase significantly.
Gold pricing logic is moving away from traditional interest rate models toward geopolitical and debt narratives, with volatility expected to rise markedly. $XAU $XAUT #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 Overnight action highlighted a familiar pattern: when liquidity expectations improve, high-beta assets tend to react first. Ethereum jumped roughly 15%, while storage names including $SNDK, $MU and $SKHYNIX moved higher as capital rotated toward AI-linked infrastructure. The setup has two engines: 🔹 Macro: Expectations around easier liquidity and Fed operations are lifting risk appetite. 🔹 Industry: AI inference growth is increasing memory demand, while HBM constraints, tight supplier capacity$SKY delivered $107 million in protocol revenue in Q2, yet the market price has remained sideways within the existing range, with the fundamental advantages not fully reflected in the price movement.
The upper boundary of the daily-level oscillation channel has repeatedly faced resistance, and volume has not shown a sustained expansion characteristic of a one-sided rally; the converging pattern of the price structure remains clear.
The single-quarter revenue exceeding $107 million significantly outpaces other assets in the same sector, and the cash flow support forms the underpinning strength of the valuation floor.
Whether the strong revenue generation can break the current volatility range remains to be confirmed; capital has yet to convert the fundamental gap advantage into effective breakout momentum.
If bulls can break through the previous platform resistance with volume and hold above the upper range, the price structure will exit the oscillation and begin an upward trend revaluation; falling back inside the breakout point would mean the bullish logic has failed.
Once the price breaks below the structural support at the lower boundary of the current oscillation range, it will confirm the lack of upward strength, and the protocol revenue growth’s price support will collapse accordingly.
If subsequent macro expectations lower yield levels causing the market to break key lows, the current valuation recovery logic will be directly falsified.
The most important variable to watch in the coming days is the volume coordination and support strength when the price tests the range resistance.
#成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧DOGE/USDT Market Update
Price: $DOGE 0.08289 (+10.44%)
Trend: Explosive parabolic breakout surging well past the Upper Bollinger Band ($0.07695) supported by high trading volume (1.10B DOGE / $85.45M turnover).
Prediction: Testing near the local peak high at $0.08355. Holding momentum above $0.08000 supports a push toward $0.08800 6 $0.09000. If short-term profit-taking kicks in, expect initial breakout support to be retested near $0.07695 #BTCBreaks72K #OKXOutcomeLeagueS2 BTC is now 72.7K, ETH 2344, SOL 87.7. This rally is not just a simple pump; yesterday the Treasury expanded long-term US Treasury repurchases, causing long-term yields to drop, which gave risk assets a brief relief. Then BTC broke through the 69K 200-day moving average, prompting shorts to start covering heavily. In the past 24 hours, tens of billions of dollars in short positions were liquidated across the market, mainly in BTC and ETH. The BTC spot ETF also saw a renewed inflow of $517 million on Wednesday. (Investor’s Business Daily) So the question now is not whether the bulls have returned—they have—but that this rally has been too fast. BTC will first test if it can hold 72K; if it holds, then look towards 73.5K → 75K, and if 75K is surpassed, 77K will come into view. Conversely, if 72K fails, I will first look at 70.5K, with around 69K being a more comfortable pullback level. If it falls back below 69K, this breakout will need to be reassessed. ETH at 2344 has been clearly stronger than BTC in this move, recovering from 2K, 2.1K, 2.2K steadily, now grinding above 2340. On the upside, first look at 2400, then 2450 and 2500 if 2400 is surpassed; if the push to 2400 fails, support is expected near 2310, with 2250 as a secondary level. ETH shorts were also heavily liquidated yesterday, so this kind of rally can continue short-term but is also prone to sudden spikes. (Investor’s Business Daily) SOL at 87.7 has already surpassed the previous 82, 8 Breaking: 319 million SpaceX shares worth $42 billion will be unlocked tomorrow.
About 1.87 billion shares are freely traded now, so this adds an additional 17% to the available supply.
The last unlock was on August 6, 911.5 million shares, 143% of the available supply at that time, and $SPCX jumped 42% within 6 days after the unlock.Late at night, the crypto market experienced a strong surge. Bitcoin broke through $72,000 in one go, setting a record for the largest single-day short liquidation. The total short liquidation over two days reached $3.1 billion, igniting market sentiment directly. The biggest driver behind this rally is U.S. Treasury bonds. On one hand, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen signaled that the scale of Treasury repurchases could exceed $4 billion, stating that Treasury yields have already detached from fundamentals. The market expects the Treasury to intervene to stabilize the bond market. With Treasury yields falling and the dollar weakening, risk assets have gained upward momentum. On the other hand, Huang Licheng is 25x long on 20,400 $ETH, 40x leveraged long on over 80 $BTC, and 10x leveraged long on 133,000 $HYPE, with total unrealized profits reaching $4.3 million. It can be seen that big players are betting on this rebound. ETH is also strengthening in tandem, with the ETH/BTC ratio reaching a yearly high. HYPE's recent popularity is picking up. Institutional Bitcoin ETFs continue to see large inflows, indicating that capital is flowing back into the crypto market. But despite the excitement, blind optimism is unwarranted. Much of this rally is a passive surge caused by short liquidations and is expectation-driven. Treasury repurchases are only a relief measure and cannot solve the root cause of the massive U.S. fiscal deficit. If yields rise again later, the market could easily see a pullback. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the September crypto bill vote still looms. As of 08/21 02:00, the top 10 net capital inflows and outflows ranking: Net inflows TOP 10 (from largest to smallest) 1. $BTC 流动性正在向主流币集中，昨晚挂单买入 SNDK 过夜，几乎没有任何反应。不过，市场其实并不平静。BTC 直接拉升至 69000，波动如此剧烈，美股却几乎没怎么动。资金明显在加密货币市场内部轮动，主流币率先走强，存储板块也随之受益。 📌 当前持仓情况 方向：做多，杠杆 10 倍 开仓价格：1576.52 当前价格：1618.07 止损价格：1433.93 从 1576 到 1618，浮盈超过 40 个点。10 倍杠杆下仓位并不重，整体持仓还算稳固，没有明显压力。 🔍 市场分析：偏多 ① BTC 突破 69000，市场情绪回暖 这轮 BTC 的拉升力度不弱，直接站上 69000。虽然美股没有同步反应，但加密市场内部资金正在积极轮动，主流币领涨后，存储板块有望接力。 ② SK 海力士宣布 40 万亿韩元回购，存储板块情绪改善 SK 海力士公布了一项规模达 40 万亿韩元的股票回购计划。虽然扩产与股东回报之间的平衡尚未明确讨论，但真金白银的回购动作，对存储板块的市场情绪是实质性利好。SNDK 作为存储领域的龙头之一，有望直接受益。 ③ SNDK 技术面出现积极信号 SNDK 从 1545 #ETH breaks through $2300
ETH has broken through $2300, and this time it can't simply be explained as "catching up with BTC".
A few days ago, ETH was still around $1900.
Now it has surged to $2300, currently about $2320–2330, with a 24-hour increase of over 10%, clearly outperforming BTC.
Why has ETH suddenly become stronger?
The first layer is obviously the overall Crypto market warming up:
US Treasury yields falling, the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, plus the SEC's crypto regulatory proposals, all together raising risk appetite.
But ETH has a second layer.
On August 19, the US spot ETH ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $187 million.
Moreover:
August 17 +$30.9 million
August 18 +$71.4 million
August 19 +$186.8 million
The capital is clearly accelerating.
In one sentence:
BTC pulled the market up earlier, now funds are starting to spread to high Beta assets like ETH.
What's more interesting is that the US discussions on Token issuance, RWA, stablecoins, and on-chain financial regulations are inherently more directly related to the Ethereum ecosystem than to BTC.
So I see two scenarios now:
If 2300 holds:
This breakthrough continues to be effective, first targeting the 2335–2350 range, and after breaking through, the market can easily test 2400.
If it falls back below 2250:
That would indicate this wave is more about sentiment and catching up, and I would lower my judgment on $BTC $ETH Do not misinterpret the rise of $PEOPLE as a revaluation of the project's worth.
The U.S. Treasury has increased long-term bond repurchases, $BTC and $ETH continue to strengthen, and capital is starting to flow out from large-cap assets to high-volatility assets; PEOPLE is just amplifying this risk appetite to nearly 30% over 24 hours.
Unlike a few hours ago, Binance futures open interest has grown by 21.6%, long positions account for 55.5%, and new leverage is clearly following suit, while the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are both near 86 — the trend is stronger, but the structure is more fragile.
My judgment is not bearish; if there is a pullback near 0.0102, I will directly continue to open long positions. If volume supports a hold above 0.0106, I will continue to target 0.0111–0.0118; if it falls below 0.0093, then a rapid cooldown logic applies. I advise that if you prefer not to touch it, do not short it‼️‼️‼️ETH has shifted from "following BTC's rise" to testing whether it can establish its own independent strength.
This round of ETH's rebound is actually more noteworthy than it appears on the surface.
From this 15-minute chart, ETH has surged from around $1,905, reaching a high of $2,361.43, and currently remains near $2,344. In less than two days, the price has completed over a 20% recovery and has not quickly returned to the starting point after the initial sharp rise.
This indicates a change in the market:
ETH is no longer just being driven by BTC but is beginning to develop its own capital logic.
The latest point of interest is the ETF side. On August 19, the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $189 million, marking the third consecutive trading day of net inflows, with BlackRock ETHA alone contributing about $122 million in daily inflows. (KuCoin)
Over a longer period, the improvement in ETH's capital flow actually began in July. In July, the US spot ETH ETF had a cumulative net inflow of about $365 million, while ETH's price rose about 19% during the same period, showing signs of capital spreading from pure BTC allocation to ETH. (Blockport)
The current macro environment also provides a tailwind.
After the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repos, the market began to reprice improved liquidity, easing long-term interest rate pressure, and declining dollar purchasing power. Both BTC and ETH showed significant rebounds on August 20. ETH was one of the strongest single-day performers in recent months. (MarketWatch)
But what concerns me more now is not how much ETH has risen, but whether it can complete a **structural shift from a rebound to a trend**.
There are currently three very clear signals on the chart.
First, the short-term moving averages have fully turned bullish.
MA5 is around 2,342, MA10 at 2,333, and MA20 at 2,309. The price consistently stays above MA20, indicating short-term funds have not noticeably withdrawn.
Second, ETH has retested the $2,346–$2,361 range.
This area coincides with the current previous highs. If it can hold above $2,360 with volume instead of repeatedly spiking and falling back, the next phase of market trading will shift from a "deep correction rebound" to a higher-level trend recovery.
Third, and the point I am most cautious about:
The price is strong, but momentum is no longer as strong as initially.
KDJ values are currently K about 73.5, D 74.8, J 71, still in a relatively high zone but not strengthening rapidly in sync with new price highs.
This means ETH is entering a typical phase:
The trend remains upward, but the odds of chasing further gains have clearly decreased.
So, I will focus on two key levels going forward.
If ETH can hold above $2,360 and does not quickly fall back after breaking through, then the upside space will truly open.
Conversely, if the price repeatedly fails near $2,360 and then breaks below $2,300–$2,310, short-term caution is needed for profit-taking after this rapid rise.
The most important question about this ETH rally is not "can it still rise?"
But rather:
After BTC opens the gate for risk appetite, can ETH become the asset that truly absorbs incremental capital in the next phase?
If ETF inflows continue and ETH/BTC strengthens further, I would believe the market is evolving from a "BTC single-core rebound" to a "mainstream crypto asset diffusion rally."
But if ETH cannot break through $2,360 and capital refocuses on BTC, then this ETH rise still looks more like Beta rather than Alpha.
What I want to see next is whether ETH can decouple from BTC and show relative strength. Do you think ETH will become the true second main line in this round of capital rotation? $ETH BTC's recent rise from 64,000 to 73,000 is not truly about how much it increased, but rather that the market is re-pricing "liquidity".
In less than two days, BTC surged from $64,141 shown in the chart to a high of $72,939, nearly a 14% increase. Currently, on the 15-minute chart, it remains around $72,800 without significant pullback.
On the surface, this looks like a technical breakout; but if you only focus on the candlesticks, it's easy to miss what really drove this move.
One core catalyst for this rally was the U.S. Treasury's announcement to expand long-term Treasury repurchase operations. Previously, rising long-term U.S. bond yields had clearly suppressed risk assets, but after the repo expansion, the market began trading on the logic of "eased long-end liquidity pressure + weaker dollar." BTC then quickly broke through $70,000. Meanwhile, improving expectations for U.S. crypto regulation further strengthened market risk appetite. (Reuters)
However, there is a detail worth noting:
This rally did not start with gradual buying but was driven by shorts being forcibly squeezed out.
BTC had long been stuck in the $64,000–$68,000 range, with many funds holding a consistent bearish bias. After the price breakout, massive short liquidations occurred, creating a short-term positive feedback loop of "rising price → short squeeze → forced buyback → continued rise." Some data shows that during the most intense phase, over $1 billion in BTC short positions were liquidated within about an hour. (KuCoin)
So I won't simply define this rise as a "bull market restart."
What I care more about is whether, after the short squeeze ends, there is genuine incremental capital willing to take over above $70,000.
At least one positive signal has appeared: the latest trading day for the U.S. spot BTC ETF recorded about $517 million in net inflows, a relatively clear institutional capital return recently. (KuCoin)
Returning to the 15-minute chart:
BTC is currently priced at $72,832, approaching the upper Bollinger Band at $73,100. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are clearly aligned bullishly, indicating a strong short-term trend.
However, the KDJ indicator is at K=83.2, D=80.5, J=88.6, clearly entering a high-level zone in the short term.
Therefore, I am not focused on "how much more it can rise" but rather observing two questions:
First, can it truly hold around $73,000?
If the price breaks the previous high of $72,939 and completes turnover above $73,000, rather than just spiking through, then this rally may gradually shift from a "short covering" to a genuine trend-driven buying.
Second, can the next pullback hold the $71,000–$72,000 area?
The most important feature of a strong trend is not the absence of pullbacks but that previous resistance turns into support after a retracement. If BTC still finds buying support on a pullback, this rally's structure will be much healthier than a pure short squeeze.
I think the easiest mistake the market can make now is:
Not daring to buy at 64,000 out of fear, then chasing at 73,000 out of FOMO.
The real difficulty in trading is never just judging whether a candlestick goes up or down, but distinguishing clearly during sharp market sentiment reversals:
Which rises come from forced buying, and which come from active buying.
The former creates speed; the latter determines the trend.
If BTC can hold above 73,000 next, I will significantly raise my assessment of this rebound's level; but if it fails to break through and falls back below 71,000, then this rally still warrants caution for profit-taking after a large-scale short squeeze.
Do you think BTC's return above $70,000 this time is the start of a new trend, or a macro liquidity-driven super short squeeze? $BTC