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Analysis of $ETH's explosive surge on Binance, I've already lost my mind
1. White House Crypto Summit, Trump releases major positive news
- Publicly urges Congress to pass the CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act, classifying crypto assets as commodities/securities, ending long-term regulatory ambiguity
2. SEC regulatory warm breeze: launches safe harbor rules exempting token financing from registration, reducing project compliance pressure, easing institutional panic
II. Macro liquidity flood, risk assets broadly rise
The U.S. Treasury's long-term bond repurchase scale doubles, injecting liquidity into the market, U.S. bond yields decline, and the dollar weakens.
Funds flow out of the bond market into high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, lifting the overall market.
III. The key reason Ethereum is rising faster than Bitcoin: spot liquidity drying up + epic short squeeze (blowing out shorts)
1. Exchange ETH inventories are at historic lows
Large amounts of Ethereum are locked in staking, restaking, and layer-2 networks (Arbitrum/Optimism), reducing spot available for immediate sale. When buying pressure hits, order book depth is shallow, making prices easily surge.
2. Short squeeze liquidation spiral
Many traders previously opened short positions betting on a decline; once positive news hits, prices rapidly rise, forcing shorts to buy ETH to cover losses.
Massive covering orders push prices higher, causing more liquidations, creating positive feedback, directly triggering a 20% big green candle, with over $2 billion in shorts liquidated within 24 hours BTC broke through 72000, can this round of rise continue?
My view: it can continue, but now it has already moved from the "rebound confirmation" phase into the "secondary confirmation phase after the breakout."
The quality of this rise is better than a simple technical rebound. BTC once broke through $72000 today, hitting a new high since early June; meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $517 million yesterday, the largest single-day inflow since early May, with nearly $1 billion accumulated over the past three trading days. 
So this should not be seen merely as a short squeeze.
Currently, three bullish factors are resonating:
① ETF funds are coming back
This is the most important change at present.
Previously, the biggest problem for BTC was the lack of incremental funds during price rebounds. Now, with continuous net inflows in ETFs, it indicates institutional buying is reappearing. 
If continuous inflows can be maintained, this market could gradually shift from a short squeeze rebound to a trend recovery driven by spot funds.
② Short-term decline in US Treasury yields
After the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase operations, long-term yields briefly fell, providing liquidity relief for risk assets. BTC quickly broke through $70,000 as a result. 
But we must not be complacent—30-year Treasury yields soon returned to about 5.24%, indicating that long-term interest rate pressure has not truly disappeared. 
③ The 72000 breakthrough itself has technical significance
Previously, around 72000 was an important resistance level. If after the breakout it can achieve:
72000 breakthrough → pullback without breaking → volume expansion and renewed upward attack
then this level could turn from resistance into a new support.
So what’s next?
I will divide it into three stages.
First target: $75000
This is the next obvious psychological resistance.
If BTC can hold above 72000, 75000 will become the most direct short-term target for bulls.
Second target: $78000–$80000
If 75000 is also broken with volume, the nature of the market will clearly upgrade.
At this point, the market will start to trade "trend reversal" again instead of just a "rebound."
Third target: $85000–$90000
This target cannot be called out directly yet.
We must see:
Continuous ETF net inflows + increased spot trading volume + 72000 becoming support + US Treasury yields no longer rising continuously
Only when these conditions appear simultaneously can we further look toward 85000 or even 90000.
But the biggest risk here is also very obvious.
This rise has been very fast.
Starting from about $63,000 early this week, BTC has risen more than 15% in a short time. 
Moreover, this rise was accompanied by large-scale short liquidations; reports say crypto market short liquidations exceeded $3 billion, with BTC short liquidations about $1.77 billion. 
So the biggest fear now is:
Price continues to rise, but ETF funds start to reverse.
That would mean the subsequent rise increasingly depends on leverage and chasing buying, rather than spot funds.
In this case, the 72000 breakthrough could easily become a false breakout.
What I’m most focused on now is not "how much more it can rise"
but this structure below:
Strong:
Holding above 72000 → pullback to 70000–72000 without breaking → continued ETF inflows → renewed volume expansion
This is a relatively healthy trend continuation.
Weak:
Failing to break 75000 → quickly falling back below 72000 → significant decline in ETF inflows
Then we must guard against returning to the 68000–70000 range for consolidation.
So my judgment:
Short term: slightly bullish.
Medium term: starting to strengthen but still needs confirmation.
Key support: 70000–72000.
First target: 75000.
After breaking 75000: 78000–80000.
Strong trend market: then look at 85000–90000.
In a word:
The 72000 breakthrough itself is bullish, but what really determines whether this rise can go far is not how much it breaks through, but whether funds are willing to keep buying at high levels after the breakout.
The most positive signal currently is the strong inflow of ETFs again. If this pace continues over the next week, I will significantly raise my judgment on the continuation of this market; if ETFs turn to sustained outflows again, then this rise must be redefined as a rapid recovery driven by short covering.
So now it’s not advisable to blindly chase highs just because of the 72000 breakthrough; the truly comfortable position is to see if 72000 can turn from resistance into support. $BTC #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ The UAE officially announced a complete suspension of all commercial and financial cooperation with Iran, directly cutting off Iran's crucial regional trade and capital transit channels. For a long time, the UAE has been a core trade partner of Iran, with Dubai serving as a key transit hub for Iran's connection to the global market. This ban significantly impacts Iran's economy.
First, foreign exchange circulation channels are severely obstructed. Previously, Dubai handled Iran's cross-border settlements and import financing, serving as the core channel for Iran to bypass sanctions and obtain foreign currency. After the suspension of financial interactions, Iranian companies face greatly increased difficulty in exchanging foreign currency and purchasing overseas equipment and goods.
Second, the overall cost of imports rises. Iran relies heavily on overseas imports for producing machinery, electronics, and consumer goods. Losing the UAE transit route means switching to longer logistics routes, which increases transportation expenses and trade fulfillment risks simultaneously.
Third, the suppressive effect of overseas sanctions is further amplified. The US has been trying to block Iran's overseas financial channels that circumvent sanctions. The UAE's current action aligns perfectly with the US blockade strategy, continuously shrinking Iran's external economic survival space.
Geopolitical negatives will continue to support crude oil prices, and rising energy inflation will indirectly suppress US stocks and crypto asset valuations. Ongoing monitoring of Gulf trade flow changes is necessary. $BTC $ETH $SNDK U.S. Stocks End Altcoins: The Endgame and New Order for Crypto Traders
1. Exchanges like Binance and OKX launching U.S. stock perpetual contracts (such as SNDK, Microsoft, Tesla) represent the perfect fusion of the world's most efficient trading tools (24/7 availability, high leverage, seamless clearing) and the highest quality real-world assets (U.S. stocks). When traders can directly speculate on U.S. stocks on crypto exchanges, altcoins lose their sole value as "speculative targets."
2. Inevitable zeroing out, zero fair value: Code and nodes have no technical barriers. Public chain tokens and altcoin air tokens have neither real profits nor balance sheet asset backing; essentially, they are just unrestrained chips in a game of speculation. History has already proven this (e.g., Luna's instant 99% crash, FTX collapse). Tokens without real performance and regulatory compliance are ultimately castles in the air.
3. Giants like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla have real moats, AI technology implementation, GAAP financial reports, and SEC regulatory protection. They have clear fair value and perfect narratives, making it impossible for them to go to zero overnight.
The ultimate landscape for the next three years
* Bitcoin (BTC): The only exception, existing independently due to its status as digital gold and a non-sovereign safe-haven asset.
* All other crypto tokens: Having lost their parasitic soil as the "only speculative objects on exchanges," their liquidity will be completely drained by high-quality U.S. stock derivatives and will face comprehensive exhaustion and zeroing within three years.
U.S. stock perpetual contracts are the ultimate destination for all crypto traders. From yesterday to today, Ethereum (ETH) has seen a clean and strong rally that has truly ignited trading sentiment in the market. During the session, it not only broke through the $2300 mark once, with a high approaching $2335, but in terms of elasticity and explosive power, it also left Bitcoin (BTC) far behind. Behind this big bullish candle, the most eye-catching aspect is the on-chain short liquidations exceeding $1.1 billion, as well as the complex battle between bulls and bears in the market. We can delve into the underlying logic and potential concerns of this rally from several dimensions: In the crypto derivatives market, the fiercest rallies are often not due to strong active buying, but rather the "self-destruction" of shorts being cornered. Epic liquidation scale: In the past 24 hours, on-chain ETH short liquidations have exceeded $1.1 billion, a liquidation wave of this magnitude is extremely rare in the recent narrow-range consolidation market. Whale forced liquidations: Single liquidation amounts reached approximately $108.15 million. After a high-leverage large position bet goes wrong, the triggered passive market buy orders act like a snowball, forcibly pushing the price sharply higher. Real institutional moves: Continuous net inflows into ETFs provide confidence. If short liquidations in the derivatives market determine the "speed" of the rally, then spot and ETF funds largely determine the "thickness" of this rebound. Continuous net inflow signals: On August 19 Eastern Time, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of about $189 million, marking the third consecutive $SOL 87.20, +13%, a three-month high. First time reclaiming the 200-day MA, Meme coins surged across the board with $BOME +46.5%, $TRUMP +19%. Short positions liquidated about $100 million, ETF daily inflow $2.1 million.
1. Alpenglow is the real catalyst. This upgrade reduces final confirmation time from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, an 85x speed increase. Mainnet launch in Q3. If implemented, SOL's competitiveness in payment and RWA sectors will be fully enhanced. Slot time has already dropped from 400ms to 350ms, with a long-term target of 200ms.
2. Bitwise is still pushing Solana staking ETF tokenization, done through Superstate. Institutional products are accelerating rollout. But RSI is already signaling overbought, so a short-term pullback below $88 is quite possible.
3. The key is whether the $88 mid-range can turn into support. If it holds and pushes above the $98 upper range, there's an additional 16% upside. But if it falls below $76, the gains will be wiped out.
So overall, SOL's fundamentals are improving, and Alpenglow is the real deal, not just a PPT. However, after a +13% jump, chasing higher carries significant risk; better to wait for a pullback to $83-$85 for confirmation before proceeding. BlackRock BUIDL Frenziedly Penetrates DeFi Infrastructure: When All Collateral Turns into U.S. Treasuries, How Much Decentralization Remains?
The world's largest asset management giant, BlackRock, is silently reconstructing the entire DeFi foundational framework at a pace that sends chills down the spines of all crypto purists.
Its tokenized U.S. Treasury fund BUIDL, while continuously hitting new all-time highs in assets under management, is being wildly integrated by top-tier DeFi lending protocols and stablecoin systems. From Ethena incorporating it as a core reserve asset for synthetic dollars, to MakerDAO and Aave racing to set it as a top-yielding collateral, the entire on-chain world is undergoing a sweeping overhaul of RWA collateral.
On the surface, this appears to be a triumphant convergence of traditional trillion-dollar financial capital embracing on-chain finance, where DeFi protocols can finally earn around 5% real fiat risk-free returns effortlessly.
But if you truly see through the power struggle controlling the financial system, you'll find that behind this seemingly prosperous union lies the most fatal institutional co-optation of decentralization.
In the past, DeFi was called permissionless finance mainly because its underlying collateral consisted of crypto-native assets like Ethereum and Bitcoin that cannot be remotely frozen by any centralized entity. No matter how turbulent the outside world, smart contracts could still ruthlessly and automatically liquidate under mathematical rules.
But once tokenized U.S. Treasuries like BUIDL become indispensable core collateral for protocols, the entire game changes:
First, the sovereign censorship backdoor is fully opened.
BUIDL is backed by real U.S. short-term Treasuries, and every on-chain token transfer, liquidation, and redemption must embed extremely strict whitelists and accredited investor KYC in the underlying smart contracts. This means BlackRock and U.S. regulators inherently hold ultimate interpretive authority and superpowers to freeze assets with one click in the code. If geopolitical tensions or regulatory red lines arise, any DeFi protocol integrated with BUIDL will instantly lose its so-called censorship resistance.
Second, native on-chain liquidity is passively squeezed out.
When institutions and whales realize they can safely earn 5% risk-free Treasury interest by putting funds into tokenized U.S. Treasuries, who would want to lend to volatile, high-risk native DeFi lending pools? This leads to crypto-native lending yields being suppressed at low levels for a long time, native asset liquidity continuously bleeding out, and the entire on-chain financial pricing anchor forcibly dragged back to the Fed's interest rate track.
Capital always chases profit; Wall Street never does charity without returns. By using RWA to funnel cheap Treasury assets on-chain, they not only earn stable management fees but also seize the lifeline of the next-generation global clearing network.
Facing this irreversible institutional co-optation, my own asset defense strategy is very clear:
Enjoy the interest convenience brought by RWA, but never bet your entire net worth on collateral highly dependent on a single regulated entity. In the storms of bull and bear cycles, holding truly decentralized, backdoor-free native hard assets is your last air defense hole on the balance sheet.
BlackRock BUIDL's massive takeover of DeFi collateral—do you think this is a necessary path for on-chain finance to mature, or a complete compromise of decentralization spirit? When allocating interest-bearing assets, do you prioritize stable 5% returns or the permissionless security baseline?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 4. Sanliu Ling (601360)
360's large model focuses on the integration of network security and AI, launching AI security detection tools to serve government and enterprise network security businesses. The security business provides stable cash flow to support large model R&D. The C-end AI tool market is less competitive, making it difficult to capture leading market share. The vertical security track forms a differentiated route, avoiding the red ocean of general large models. Competition in government and enterprise security project bidding is fierce, and order acquisition is uncertain. The company's AI business growth relies on existing security customer resources, with a steady expansion pace. 4. Sanliu Ling (601360)
360's large model focuses on the integration of network security and AI, launching AI security detection tools to serve government and enterprise network security businesses. The security business provides stable cash flow to support large model R&D. The C-end AI tool market is less competitive, making it difficult to capture leading market share. The vertical security track forms a differentiated route, avoiding the red ocean of general large models. Competition in government and enterprise security project bidding is fierce, and order acquisition is uncertain. The company's AI business growth relies on existing security customer resources, with a steady expansion pace. 2. iFLYTEK (002230)
The Spark vertical large model deeply cultivates the education, government, and medical sectors, implementing numerous customized projects. AI learning hardware maintains stable sales, with hardware business supporting algorithm research and development. Government and enterprise procurement orders are the core revenue source. General large model giants continuously penetrate vertical markets, intensifying market competition. The delivery cost of customized projects is relatively high, with limited profit per project. The company avoids the general large model price war and focuses on industry-specific scenarios. The speed of performance release depends on local digital procurement budgets, with growth being relatively steady. $SPCX Practical Strategy:
1. The biggest variable for SPCX right now is not technical indicators, but the chip pressure caused by unlocking.
2. On August 20, another batch of SpaceX shares will enter the tradable phase. The market has already shown significant fluctuations, with yesterday's closing price around $139.65.
3. Therefore, if you see a sudden drop now, it doesn't necessarily mean the fundamentals have collapsed; it is very likely a short-term supply shock caused by unlocking chips.
4. Around 140 is an important short-term psychological level. Only if it can firmly hold above 140 with increased volume is it more suitable to expect a rebound.
5. If it continues to break below 140 and the trading volume significantly increases, do not catch the falling knife.
The most important thing for SPCX now is not to guess the rise or fall, but to wait for the unlocking pressure to be released. The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates, but the suspense for September is even greater
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at the July meeting, but what’s truly noteworthy is that 3 of the 12 voting members supported an immediate 25 basis point hike.
This indicates that concerns about inflation are heating up within the Fed.
On one hand, July’s inflation data cooled down and there are signs of weakening employment; on the other hand, inflation is still far from the 2% target. The Fed now faces a dilemma: continuing to tighten could hurt the economy; easing too soon risks inflation picking up again.
So the focus in September is not just about whether to raise rates.
Upcoming PCE and August CPI data may directly determine the direction of policy expectations. If inflation continues to fall, the pressure from high rates could ease; but if the data fluctuates, the 3 dissenting votes in July might just be the start of a tougher policy.
Personally, I think what we really need to watch out for next is the market re-pricing "high rates staying longer."
High-valuation AI stocks, long-term U.S. Treasuries, and highly volatile assets like $BTC could all be affected.
September may not necessarily see a rate hike, but the Fed’s direction is no longer as straightforward as before.
Real changes often don’t start when the rate decision is announced, but when the market moves ahead of it
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 SPCX fell nearly 5% in the evening session on August 20, dropping below the $135 issue price to the $132–134 range.
Three key points:
1. The second wave of restricted shares unlocking hits the market, supply shock directly crashes the price
August 20 marks the expiration of the second lock-up period after listing, about 319 million shares held by insiders/early investors become tradable (about 7% of total shares, more than three times the daily average trading volume). Investors fear insiders rushing to cash out, so they sell early to hedge, which is the most direct downward pressure tonight.
2. Valuation bubble theory reignited, shorts amplify sentiment
Last week, New York University’s Scott Galloway claimed "SpaceX is only worth $10–30," a former Fidelity manager agreed with a "$30 target," and GMO said there is a 90% chance of a 50% drop within the year. These voices were re-amplified by financial media on the eve of the unlocking—market recalculates: at IPO, the float was only 4–5% plus Nasdaq 100 passive funds supporting the $225 peak; now with the denominator loosening and the story cooling, the nearly $1.8 trillion valuation doesn’t hold up.
3. Earnings report "revenue growth without profit" + AI cash burn, falling interest rates instead expose weaknesses
Q2 revenue rose 92% year-over-year but net loss was $541 million; Capex was $18.37 billion (6.5 times YoY), with $15.8 billion spent on AI computing power. The decline in long-term US Treasury yields should have benefited long-duration tech stocks, but the market is instead focusing more on real cash flow. $BTC pulled up 30 points, and the whales drove the car away.
I glanced at the on-chain data and understood who is making money this time.
Santiment's data shows that in the past 60 days, Bitcoin whales (holding over 1,000 coins) have cumulatively increased their holdings by about $2.75 billion. Moreover, these increases happened in the 62,000 to 66,000 range. It's not chasing the rally; it's anticipating it.
On August 2nd, there was an interesting detail: an address dormant for 9 years moved out 1,000 BTC. The price 9 years ago was $230. You really don't think this is a retail investor, do you?
The holding volume also confirms this. In July, whales held 71.2%, now it's 72.4%. Don't underestimate this 1.2%; converted to BTC quantity, it's close to hundreds of thousands of coins. Clearly, this is a move to position ahead.
And these guys operate very uniformly: they don't chase highs, they only accumulate. BTC hovered between 62,000 and 66,000 for a few days, and during those days they slowly accumulated. When the price was pushed to 72,000, they were already in the car; retail investors were chasing, they were watching.
Trey from ZZ Capital also mentioned a data point: the sell volume of long-term holders has dropped to a few thousand BTC per day, shrinking 80% from the tens of thousands at the beginning of the year. Fewer people are selling, more are slowly accumulating, supply narrows, demand doesn't decrease, so the price naturally pushes up.
What I’m most concerned about now is—when retail investors realize that the 72,000 level might be the breakout point, what will the whales do?
Continue to add positions, or slowly sell off? The answer is not in the candlestick charts, but on-chain. Watch those addresses holding over 1,000 coins; when they move, the trend truly moves.#BTC #ETH
In a bull market, shorts get liquidated, and in a bear market, longs get liquidated. It sounds counterintuitive, but this is indeed the case. Yesterday, short liquidations hit a record high, reaching an astonishing 3 billion;
Currently, the short-term trend in the crypto space has reversed, but I do not agree that the bull market has returned. The real reason for this recent surge is the capital flow back into crypto after the US stock market hit new highs and then started to stagnate, prompting funds to seek new speculative arenas;
Here’s the detailed explanation: Recently, the US stock market rebounded strongly, with the S&P 500 hitting new highs, but the crypto market remained sluggish, with trading volume and volatility at absurdly low levels. If you have been trading, you should have noticed the unusual trading volume and volatility over the past half month. As the US stock market started to consolidate at high levels this past week and showed signs of weakening, funds urgently needed a new arena for speculation. Since crypto had not followed the US stock rally, it became a perfect recipient for this capital inflow;
Finally: It is expected that Bitcoin will start to consolidate sideways around 73-75. If it cannot break out with increased volume, this will confirm that this violent rebound is a bear market short squeeze caused by capital rotation; 4. Avalanche (AVAX)
Up 14.3% in 24 hours, a mid-tier public chain token. The ecosystem announced a developer support program, distributing token incentives to attract projects to join. The overall market rally drives the token upward. The public chain sector is highly competitive, with multiple rival chains vying for developer resources. The support program can boost ecosystem numbers in the short term, but it is difficult to quickly form a large-scale user base. The token faces continuous unlocking selling pressure. This round of price increase relies on dual drivers of ecosystem policies and market conditions, with weak intrinsic growth momentum, making the sustainability of the rise questionable.The SEC has introduced a draft safe harbor for crypto regulation, reconstructing the token compliance path through form filings and post-event accountability. The regulation includes airdrops and point rewards in financing limits, directly suppressing institutional risk appetite and reshaping holding structures. If the draft is strictly enforced with retrospective accountability after public consultation, early project sell-offs and narrative valuations will continue to cool down. Once congressional bills advance beyond expectations causing administrative exemptions to be shelved, this logic will fail, with the focus shifting to the final classification of non-cash distributions during the consultation period.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元BTC surges past 72000, the real test is just beginning
This BTC wave is not an ordinary rebound, but an accelerated release after "low volatility + crowded shorts."
On August 20, it broke through 72000 USD, with a 24H increase expanding up to 11.8%, while nearly 3 billion USD worth of positions were liquidated, clearly showing that the short squeeze significantly accelerated the rise.
Whether 72000 USD can hold steady is more important than just breaking through it.
There is already a positive signal: the US stock spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about 517 million USD, hitting a new high since May, indicating institutional funds are starting to take over again.
Next, focus on three indicators:
① Spot trading volume: Is there real buying to absorb selling pressure;
② ETF funds: Can inflows continue, not just a one-day event;
③ Stablecoin liquidity: Is there new "ammunition" entering the market.
If all three improve simultaneously, this rally could shift from a "short squeeze" to a "trend uptrend."
Conversely, if the area around 72000 mainly relies on short covering, and spot support lags, once profit-taking occurs, the pullback could be very large.
So don’t rush to ask "how much higher can it go" now; first observe whether 72000 can turn from resistance into support.
This is the key to judging whether the breakout is genuine.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ $BTC $ETH After discussing macro, let's continue with individual US stocks
Storage was stunned yesterday by that move from Bessent, but normally the positive news of Hynix's buyback should support a 3-5 day rise. Today, after the yield drop rebound triggered by Bessent's doubled policy, the US stock market has returned to its previous track.
After the bottom rebound of the three storage laggards, let's first look at the resistance in the previous high area.
SPCX has officially entered a downward unlocking channel; let's first watch the 115-125 range box.
Fundamentally, the successful recovery of Zhuque-3 has again weakened SPCX's technical scarcity premium. The downward rebound will likely wait until this batch of selling pressure is digested and Starship 14's launch brings more milestone positive news.
But if Starship 14 cannot launch by the end of August, and then another batch unlocks on September 9, the stock price decline may continue until mid to late September.
Let's wait and see. Who knows what capital operations Musk might pull in between to support the stock price? It's just a matter of falling too much, rising too much, then falling again—there's no one-sided market where only one side profits. $SNDK $SPCX #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 4. Tebian Electric Apparatus‑H (03899)
Up 7.4%, a supplier of power transmission and transformation equipment. Domestic UHV projects are accelerating, and overseas energy infrastructure orders are increasing. The company supplies transformers and cable products to domestic and international power grid projects, while also developing new energy power generation business. Infrastructure orders provide performance support, and the new energy business opens up long-term growth potential. Overseas project construction cycles are long, and geopolitical situations abroad may interfere with project progress. Raw material price fluctuations will affect product gross margins. Medium- to long-term growth depends on domestic and overseas power grid construction demand, while short-term market trends are driven by infrastructure policy expectations. Bitcoin has strengthened significantly over the past two days, with its price once approaching $72,000, reaching the highest level since early June. On Thursday alone, it rose more than 5%, accumulating over an 11% increase in two days.
This rebound was primarily driven by a decline in U.S. Treasury yields. As interest rate pressures eased, market risk appetite recovered, and funds flowed back into crypto assets. Meanwhile, concentrated short covering further amplified the upward momentum. Data shows that about $2.7 billion in short positions in the crypto market were recently liquidated, creating a clear "short squeeze" effect.
Positive policy developments have also become a market focus. The White House recently convened executives from Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, Ripple, and other crypto industry leaders to discuss industry regulation and legislation. Trump urged Congress to advance the Clarity Act within the year, prompting the market to reassess the U.S. crypto regulatory environment.
However, the bill's progress still faces bipartisan disagreements, especially unresolved issues like ethical restrictions. The Senate procedural vote on September 15 has thus become a key observation point for the next phase. If the vote is blocked, expectations for the bill's passage within the year may cool again.
Despite the strong rebound, Bitcoin remains noticeably distant from its all-time high of about $126,000 in October 2025. Whether the upward trend can continue depends on policy progress and sustained capital inflows. $BTC $ETH #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ 1. Kintor Pharmaceutical‑B (00939)
Single-day gain of 47%, an innovative drug company. Overseas mRNA tumor vaccine breakthrough drives collective rise in Hong Kong biotech stocks. The company has multiple self-developed tumor drugs in mid-to-late clinical stages and is developing a nucleic acid drug R&D pipeline. Short-term speculative funds have massively entered, sharply boosting the stock price. The company has not yet achieved stable profitability, with long-term high R&D expenses. Some pipelines carry high clinical risks; trial failures would lead to valuation setbacks. This round of increase is mainly driven by industry hotspots, not by company-released clinical positives. Small-cap biotech stocks have weak liquidity, with significant downside risk after the hype fades. Last week, SEC Chair Atkins released a draft regulatory proposal for crypto assets. The most straightforward change is the relaxation of fundraising thresholds—small projects can raise up to $5 million without registration within four years, while large projects can raise up to $75 million every 12 months. Although the increased limits are eye-catching, I believe the real highlight lies elsewhere.
The core of this draft is to establish a new framework for the long-standing question of whether tokens count as securities. Previously, it relied entirely on the Howey test and market consensus to guess. Now, the SEC proposes a “safe harbor” mechanism: project teams self-declare whether their initial commitments have been fulfilled, filling out forms to prove it themselves. The SEC will not pre-approve but retains the right to hold them accountable afterward. In other words, the SEC does not intend to issue a “graduation certificate,” but only sets the graduation process, and if the proof is wrong, the team bears the responsibility.
This shift has a direct impact. Teams with fewer commitments can graduate more quickly; meanwhile, issuers who tell decentralization stories while tightly controlling the project may be hindered by their own promises—since you included “promoting decentralization” in investors’ expectations, you will have to provide evidence in the future that this has been achieved or completely stopped.
There is also a detail easily overlooked: airdrops and network rewards are counted toward the $5 million cap—“free” does not mean excluded from the limit.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ $BTC A statement from the White House pulls Bitcoin back to 70,000 — policy bottom is more important than price bottom
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #FederalReserve #ClarityAct #AITrading
Brothers, today's surge is unusual.
BTC hit a high of $70,000 in the past 24 hours, rising nearly 8% at one point, marking the highest since June. Over $1 billion in short positions across the network were liquidated within just one hour, the largest scale since 2021.
This is not a technical rebound; this is a policy-driven short squeeze.
Core catalyst: The White House has finalized the "regulatory bottom"
On August 19 local time, Trump met with key crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken, Robinhood, and others at the White House Roosevelt Room. Trump announced three key developments on the spot:
First, the Clarity Act will be voted on in Congress on September 15. If passed, the boundary between "securities" and "commodities" for digital assets will be legislatively clarified for the first time. Coinbase CEO Armstrong personally confirmed this timeline.
Second, the U.S. government has discussed accumulating a "substantial amount" of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. This means a national-level strategic reserve is no longer just a concept but a policy option in progress.
Third, SEC Chair Atkins announced new crypto asset issuance rules, proposing exemptions from securities registration requirements for certain digital assets, allowing crypto startups to legally raise funds in the U.S. The CFTC is also advancing the compliance framework for Hyperliquid's entry into the U.S.
The market originally expected the Clarity Act to be delayed until after the midterm elections, but now it has suddenly been moved up to mid-September.
This is not "all good news priced in," but a "complete restructuring of expectations."
A large number of shorts were based on the premise of a "regulatory deadlock continuing," and now that premise has been overturned, they can only cover at any cost.
Federal Reserve minutes: hidden signs of market warming
The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes released early that day showed that "many" officials believe rate hikes are necessary if inflation is hard to reduce. It sounds hawkish, but the market actually breathed a sigh of relief — because after the minutes were released, the probability of a September rate hike remained around 35%, without a significant jump.
Why?
Because the minutes also confirmed the Fed is seriously discussing AI lending risks and overvaluation bubbles.
When the Fed starts worrying about an AI bubble, it means the logic of "AI overheating causing the Fed to hesitate to ease" is weakening.
For the crypto market, this narrative shift is more important than Fed officials' statements.
August market logic completely reverses
Policy-driven events have begun to shift toward "framework establishment."
When we discussed the August outlook in late July, the core judgment was "event-driven rebound with doubtful sustainability."
At that time, three major negatives loomed: possible collapse of U.S.-Iran talks, rate hike expectations possibly returning, and the Clarity Act possibly delayed until after the midterms.
Now the most important of these three variables has completely loosened:
- The Act is not "wait and see," but a confirmed vote on September 15, with the White House openly pressuring for progress
- SEC and CFTC are proactively setting rules, no longer passively waiting for legislation
- The U.S. government openly discussing "reserving Bitcoin," industry expectations fully warming up
66,000-68,000 is the technical resistance zone for this bear market, but once policy logic is established, technical resistance is just a matter of time.
AIX's judgment
Direction: short-term bullish, but sentiment is already very exuberant, chasing highs carries significant risk.
The core driver of this rally is policy expectation restructuring, not fundamental improvement.
A true trend reversal must meet two hard conditions:
1. Smooth passage of the Clarity Act
2. Continuous inflow of ETF funds, not a one-day wonder
Entry points:
Current price around 68,500 is not recommended for chasing highs.
If the price pulls back to 65,000-66,000 and shows signs of stabilization, it is a quality long entry zone, with stop loss below 63,500 and target 70,000-72,000.
For existing positions, move the take-profit from 68,000 up to 69,500.
ETH market:
Up 19% in one day, showing much better elasticity than BTC.
If BTC holds above 68,000, ETH will continue to catch up, with targets at 2,200-2,300.
Core idea
The White House meeting directly locked in the Clarity Act timeline — vote on September 15.
Before then, policy bullish expectations will continue to ferment, but current prices have already priced in some of the benefits early.
- If the Act passes smoothly → 68,000 will become the new market bottom
- If the Act is delayed again → this rally is just an extreme short squeeze
Discuss in the comments: BTC at 70,000, will you chase or not?
Personal opinion, not investment advice. The market has risks, be responsible for yourself.
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #FederalReserve #ClarityAct #AITrading#SK Hynix 40 Trillion Won Buyback: How to Balance Expansion and Returns
The boss has something to say
SK Hynix has dropped a 40 trillion won buyback bomb, the largest in the history of Korean listed companies. It started on August 20 and will last for three months, repurchasing about 24.07 million shares, accounting for 3.3% of issued shares, all to be canceled. Based on the previous day's closing price of 1.662 million won, this amounts to approximately $28.6 billion.
Why act at this point in time?
SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion won, a year-on-year increase of 257%, operating profit was 60.54 trillion won, up 557%, and the cumulative revenue for the first half of the year exceeded 100 trillion won for the first time. The performance is at a money-printing machine level, but the stock price fell from the June 25 high of 2.987 million won to 1.5 million, nearly halving. On August 18, the US ADR dropped 9.2% in one day. The better the performance, the more the stock price falls, and the management can't sit still.
The company's original statement was "The current stock price does not fully reflect the company's intrinsic value based on business competitiveness and cash flow generation capability." Using $28.6 billion in real cash to make a statement is more effective than any research report.
Shareholder return policy upgraded simultaneously
From 2025 to 2027, more than 50% of cumulative free cash flow will be used for shareholder returns, raised from the previous "not exceeding 50%" to "not less than 50%." JPMorgan calls this a "substantial policy upgrade," turning the ceiling into a floor. The company is also considering fixed dividends and special dividends, with specific plans to be disclosed when Q3 results are announced.
Wall Street collectively raises target prices
JPMorgan's target price is 2.75 million won, an 84% upside from the current price, estimating that Hynix can return at least $130 billion more to shareholders by 2027. Goldman Sachs's target price is 3.5 million won, implying a 133% upside. Nomura's target price is 4.7 million won. Goldman Sachs also raised its EPS forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 4%, 10%, and 10%, respectively.
Market reaction
SK Hynix ADR surged over 7% pre-market. On August 20, KOSPI rose over 6%, SK Hynix intraday surged over 13%, triggering a buy-side program trading halt.
My view
There are two levels worth pondering.
First, AI storage profits are starting to be distributed to shareholders on a large scale. Semiconductor companies used to keep earnings for expansion because manufacturing is a heavy asset industry. But now, Hynix is expanding production while still able to allocate $28.6 billion for buybacks, indicating that HBM's cash flow quality is on a completely different level from traditional memory cycles. The valuation logic is shifting from cyclical stocks to high growth + high cash flow + shareholder returns.
Second, the buyback scale exceeds the $26.5 billion raised by ADR in July, effectively using buybacks to hedge equity dilution. And this is just the appetizer; Goldman Sachs predicts about an additional 7 trillion won in buybacks in the future.
The valuation anchor has changed. Previously, the focus was on how much HBM could sell; now it's on how the profits are distributed. As for how far this wave can go, the Q3 earnings call at the end of October will provide a more complete shareholder return roadmap. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is timely; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议
This CLARITY Act controversy is essentially like two people fighting over a card table.
On one side are the banks.
On the other side are the crypto platforms.
On the surface, they are disputing a stablecoin reward clause, but deeper down, they are actually fighting over where users' money should be held in the future.
The banks' logic is simple.
If a person puts $10,000 in a bank, they can earn interest; but if they convert $10,000 into stablecoins and put it in a wallet, earning similar returns, banks naturally worry: will deposits slowly drain away?
So the banking industry is reminding regulators, hoping to limit this "holding coins to earn yields" model.
But the crypto industry sees it differently.
They believe that if stablecoins are just digital cash without the ability to develop richer financial applications, then innovation will be restricted.
This is actually a tug-of-war between old finance and new finance.
Every financial change in history has seen similar conflicts.
When credit cards appeared, people worried about changes to the banking system; when internet finance emerged, traditional institutions also feared losing customers.
Now it's stablecoins' turn.
What really matters is not who shouts the loudest, but who ultimately controls the entry point of capital flow.
The market will never change because of a concept, but because users actually start using it.
The greatest value of stablecoins in the future lies not in whether it is a "coin," but in whether it can become a new financial infrastructure.5. Walmart (WMT)
Up 3.6%, a major U.S. retail giant. The latest financial report shows revenue slightly exceeding expectations, with a discount merchandise strategy stabilizing customer traffic. U.S. residents have strong resilience in essential consumption, maintaining a solid supermarket base. The company continuously optimizes its supply chain to reduce procurement costs and maintain profit levels. Against the backdrop of inflation, residents cut discretionary spending, with only essential categories maintaining stable growth. The offline supermarket industry has limited growth potential, with long-term growth being moderate. The stock has defensive characteristics and tends to attract capital when market risk appetite declines. 1. BioNTech (BNTX)
Surged 22.4%, a representative company of the mRNA technology route. Positive phase 3 clinical results of Moderna's cancer vaccine have ignited the sector, and the market is optimistic about the commercialization prospects of nucleic acid drugs in the oncology field. The company has a mature mRNA R&D platform, with multiple tumor vaccine candidates advancing to clinical stages. The company's revenue structure is single and highly dependent on vaccine product sales. New drug clinical results are uncertain, and the approval process is lengthy. This rise is driven by industry news catalysts, not breakthroughs in the company's own pipeline. After the sector sentiment cools down, the stock price is likely to give back some gains, requiring continuous monitoring of the progress of self-developed projects. 2. Bohui Innovation (300318)
Closed at the daily limit with a 20cm increase, supported by dual concepts of in vitro diagnostics and vaccine consumables. The pharmaceutical sector is broadly recovering, with rising expectations for the nucleic acid vaccine industry and increased demand for vaccine-related consumables. The company mainly supplies testing reagents and vaccine adjuvant raw materials, providing supporting materials for multiple pharmaceutical companies. In the short term, stock price rises are driven by sentiment, and the company's core business revenue scale is not large. Fluctuations in upstream raw material prices will compress product gross margins, and there are few independently developed major products. The market follows sector rotation without independent fundamental positive support. When high-level chips loosen, the pullback can be significant, so it is not suitable for medium- to long-term holding. 1. Lukang Pharmaceutical (600789)
Hit the daily limit, a popular stock in the pharmaceutical sector. Overseas mRNA tumor vaccine research has made breakthroughs, and the market is broadly optimistic about the nucleic acid drug track, leading to overall strength in the biopharmaceutical sector. The company is involved in peptide drugs and anti-infective agents, building a drug research and development platform. Short-term funds quickly entered the market, pushing up the stock price with significantly increased trading volume. The company's self-developed tumor pipeline progress is slow; this round of rise is driven by sector themes, lacking strong clinical benefits from the company itself. The generic drug business is affected by centralized procurement policies, limiting profit margins in the long term. The thematic market's sustainability is limited; after the sector's heat cools down, the stock price will face pressure. Short-term trading requires position control. 170,000 people. This is the number of people forced to close in the past 24 hours. There were $3 billion in liquidations across the entire network, of which 2.7 billion were short positions—the largest single-day short squeeze in history, even harsher than the '10/11' incident. BTC rose from 65,307 to 72,495 in 24 hours, now at 71,804, still up +9.93% intraday. ETH is even stronger, rising +17.9% above 2,284. XRP directly rose +20%. The panic greed index jumped from 46 to 62 overnight, entering the greed zone. First, state my position: I am short this round, not a single contract, and I haven't added any spot shares. So you can say the following words as someone with no vested interests—I don't need you to take over, nor do I make money by shorting the market. The two claims on the trending list don't hold up today. I flipped through more than twenty posts, and most of them are talking about two things: interest rate cuts are coming, bills are about to pass. Let's start with rate cuts. The Fed meeting minutes made it clear: not a single person advocated for rate cuts. The market predicts a 74% probability of holding steady in September. Governor Warsh even said that if inflation accelerates again, a rate hike in September cannot be ruled out. So the statement "rate cuts drive crypto up" is completely factual wrong today. You see it in a post, but the author of that post didn't check the data. Now, let's talk about the bill. Trump did meet with crypto executives at the White House, announced the "end of the war on crypto," and publicly urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, even in a subtle way韩国综合指数KOSPI单日暴力拉升近5.9%，带领亚洲科技股集体反弹，本轮行情核心驱动力并非指数轮动，而是半导体龙头超预期巨额回购，彻底扭转市场对存储周期走弱的悲观预期。 本轮大涨最关键的引爆点，是SK海力士放出40万亿韩元史诗级回购注销方案，规模创韩股历史最大纪录。公司同步官宣，2025—2027年将把超50%自由现金流用于回购+分红。企业敢于掏家底回馈股东，本质是官方确认：当前股价严重低估、AI存储盈利周期依旧坚挺，自身现金流与订单基本面完全扛得住。 龙头示范效应下，市场资金开始博弈三星电子跟进推出股东回报政策。AI高带宽内存HBM持续供不应求，头部存储企业赚得充沛现金流，让整个韩国科技板块的估值修复逻辑彻底打通。资金重新回流AI基础设施赛道，不再过度担忧周期见顶。 盘面传导上，韩股直接受益于权重芯片股大涨，低估值科技属性吸引外资回流。情绪外溢至美股存储板块，美光、闪迪、西部数据同步迎来情绪修复，AI供应链整体回暖。 深层市场信号非常明确：亚洲顶级芯片厂商主动缩表抬估值，证明产业端对中长期AI资本开支、HBM需求高度自信。 风险端依旧存在：本轮反弹更多是估值修复与资金情绪推动，若后Understanding How Ethereum Grew from a "Youthful Experiment" into an Ecological Giant
⚠️Content is only a historical review of the sector and does not constitute any investment advice
Many people only know that ETH is the second largest by market cap, but they don’t realize it has faced multiple near-collapse moments along the way, growing from a whitepaper written by a young man into the foundational base of the entire Web3. Understanding its ups and downs is more important than simply betting on price movements.
1. Germination: An Unfavored Experimental Project
In 2013, 19-year-old Vitalik wrote the Ethereum whitepaper, proposing the concept of a world computer: Bitcoin could only transfer value, but Ethereum could run smart contracts, allowing blockchain to support various applications.
In 2014, a crowdfunding campaign raised funds by exchanging Bitcoin for ETH. At that time, most of the Bitcoin community was skeptical, thinking the new project was too abstract and overly ambitious.
In July 2015, the mainnet launched with very few early developers. It was just a niche technical experiment without large-scale applications, the price was low, and few realized its future potential.
2. Life-or-Death Crisis: Hacker Theft in the First Year Nearly Ended It
In 2016, the major security incident of The DAO occurred, where hackers exploited contract vulnerabilities to steal 3.6 million ETH, worth tens of millions of dollars at the time.
The market panicked, and the coin price was halved. The community erupted in a huge debate: since blockchain pursues immutability, should there be a hard fork to roll back transactions and recover losses?
After the debate, the vast majority chose a hard fork to recover the stolen assets, which also split off Ethereum Classic (ETC).
This was Ethereum’s darkest hour, with widespread pessimism and many declaring the project dead, but the community survived the governance crisis and lived on.
3. First Boom: ICO Bubble, Instant Fame (2017)
The ERC-20 token standard was born, countless new projects issued tokens on Ethereum, and the ICO wave swept the entire crypto market.
ETH surged from single digits, firmly establishing itself as the second largest cryptocurrency.
But the bubble burst quickly. The 2018 bear market arrived, countless ICO projects went to zero, ETH plummeted 90% from its peak, network congestion and high Gas fees were magnified, and criticism flooded back.
4. Bear Market Consolidation: Bubble Fades, Real Ecosystem Begins to Grow (2018-2020)
The bull market bubble faded, speculative funds left, and developers stayed to focus on building.
DeFi began to sprout, with lending and decentralized exchanges gradually launching; NFT standards took shape.
Outsiders still complained about Ethereum’s slowness and high fees, but the underlying infrastructure quietly iterated, preparing for the next big market cycle.
5. Two Major Narratives Ignite, Reaching Historic Highlights (2020-2021)
1. DeFi Summer: lending, swaps, and liquidity mining exploded, with massive capital flowing on-chain;
2. NFT wave: CryptoKitties and profile picture NFTs went viral, bringing Ethereum into the public eye.
EIP-1559 launched, implementing a fee-burning mechanism, giving ETH deflationary properties, and the price hit an all-time high of $4,878.
6. Epic Upgrade: The Merge, Completing the Transition from Mining to Staking (2022)
After years of work, The Merge was completed, bidding farewell to GPU mining and switching to PoS staking consensus, reducing energy consumption by 99%, sharply shrinking ETH issuance, and officially forming the deflation narrative.
The upgrade process was not smooth, with multiple delays and strong opposition from miners, but it was implemented under great pressure. Subsequent Cancun upgrades pushed Layer 2 scaling, solving the long-standing high fee problem.
7. Review: Ethereum’s Comeback and Lessons for Ordinary People
1. There are no eternal gods; even great projects have faced death multiple times. ETH endured hacker attacks, bear market crashes, and upgrade delays, not rising smoothly but surviving crisis after crisis.
2. True value comes from the ecosystem, not mere hype stories. Its strength lies in DeFi, NFT, stablecoins, Layer 2, and thousands of developers continuously building together, not a single concept.
3. Bull markets are results, not starting points. The surges in 2017 and 2021 came from years of technical consolidation during bear markets. Many only see the later glory and ignore the long early struggles when no one cared.
4. Technical roadmaps won’t be smooth; upgrades will be delayed and controversial. Focus on long-term implementation results, don’t be scared off by short-term negatives or blindly brainwashed by hype.
ETH’s current status did not come out of nowhere. It shows us: sector narratives are important, but the underlying logic of long-term comebacks is surviving crises, continuous iteration, and ecosystem growth.
$ETH #Ethereum #Web3 🪐 BTC In-Depth Review · August 20th 📊
1. Today's Market 📈 BTC price around $71,690, 24h +10.46%, rising $7,631 from yesterday's $64,339, marking the largest single-day gain recently. Market sentiment index quickly shifted from extreme fear to greed 🥩→🤑
2. Volatility Attribution 🧐
1. Improved liquidity environment: U.S. Treasury expanded bond repurchase, U.S. bond yields fell, risk assets overall gained liquidity premium
2. Institutional re-entry: Spot ETFs saw multiple consecutive days of net inflows, with nearly $487 million net inflow in a single recent day, restoring institutional confidence 🏦
3. Regulatory expectations warming: Washington signaled a more supportive regulatory framework, risk appetite rebounded 🏛️
4. Leverage liquidation cascade: 170,000 liquidations / $2.9 billion across the network in 24h, short positions forced to close further pushed prices up 💥
3. Technical Structure 🔍
Key support: $65,000 (200-day moving average around $69,138 has been reclaimed, mid-term structure turning bullish) 🟢
Key resistance: $72,000 round number, if daily candle closes above effectively, upside space opens 🟡
RSI: daily 63, short-term 78, momentum strong but nearing overbought
MACD: daily golden cross, bullish alignment ✅ #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议
The CLARITY Act is progressing, but the stablecoin reward mechanism has become one of the biggest points of contention between the banking industry and the crypto sector.
Banking organizations such as the American Bankers Association (ABA) have recently expressed support for establishing a digital asset regulatory framework but hope to amend stablecoin-related provisions to prevent stablecoin platforms from attracting users to hold funds long-term through interest-like rewards.
The banking industry is concerned that this could lead to deposits flowing from the traditional banking system to crypto platforms, affecting banks' lending capabilities.
Simply put, the current debate is not about "whether stablecoins should develop," but rather:
Will stablecoins in the future be merely a payment tool, or will they become a new form of deposit competition?
If a user puts dollars in a bank, they can earn returns; if they convert dollars into stablecoins, they can also earn similar returns through platforms, so naturally, funds will flow where efficiency is higher.
This is the biggest concern for banks.
From another perspective, the crypto industry believes that the greatest potential of stablecoins lies in their ability to connect payments, financial applications, and on-chain ecosystems. Excessive restrictions could slow down digital asset innovation.
The key point here is that this is no longer a simple regulatory issue but a competition for entry into the financial system.
For decades, banks have controlled funds through deposits and influenced economic cycles through lending.
If stablecoins become an important carrier of the global digital dollar in the future, the way funds flow may change. $PEOPLE short-term long, go for it,
Don't interpret this wave of PEOPLE's rise as value discovery.
After the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, long-end yields and the dollar fell, BTC led risk assets to reprice; PEOPLE just amplified this risk appetite.
The market is not contradictory: the trend is upward, funding rates are not overheated, but the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI have both crossed 70, and about 78% of large holders are long. For me, it is now a trend that can be tracked, not a new narrative to believe in long-term.
Close above 0.00880, target 0.00920—0.00955; stop loss if it breaks below 0.00810. Looking back at the data from three bull and bear cycles, a very realistic change can be seen: the explosive multiplier of bull markets is shrinking with each cycle.
In the 2017 bull market, BTC surged up to 124 times, and ETH even reached a 236-fold increase. After the feast ended, both experienced deep corrections of 83% and 94%, respectively.
By the 2021 cycle, the expansion strength had clearly cooled down. BTC rose 21 times from the previous historical high, and ETH recorded a 121-fold increase. During the subsequent correction phase, both simultaneously dropped 82%.
Looking ahead to the 2025 cycle, the difference becomes even more intuitive. BTC only multiplied 8.1 times compared to the previous high, and ETH barely refreshed its all-time high with a 5.6-fold increase; in the following correction, BTC fell 53%, and ETH's maximum drop was 70%.
It is obvious that both the profit space during bull market rises and the severity of declines in bear markets are gradually converging.
Don't stick to fixed thinking, firmly believing that BTC and ETH must fall to some fixed point to be considered a true bottom.
To be honest, in the last cycle, I did not exit ETH at its highest point, not because I subjectively believed it could continue to rise
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 Guys, let me tell you something. Today, FIL picked up and rose more than 8 points in a single day. Although the highest was only $0.7—something no one would have paid attention to a few months ago—this rebound has indeed revived the previously lifeless community a bit. After all, it's dropped nearly 99% from its historical high—even catching your breath feels like celebrating the New Year. Many people say FIL is a "dead coin," but I don't fully agree—to be precise, it's quietly stirring things up. Several noteworthy new developments: First, the Solstice proposal (FIP-0118), the largest reward mechanism reform since Filecoin's launch. Simply put, it means no longer engaging in complex audits of "verified data," treating all storage providers equally. And for the first time, rewards were given to "customer recruiters" at the protocol layer—whoever brought paying customers to the network would receive a share of the block rewards. Simply put, it's about shifting from "farming data for rewards" to "making money by doing business." Second, the FOC mainnet goes live, packaging storage, verification, and payment into a single service layer. The number of development projects built on Filecoin tripled within a year. Third, the first halving in October this year, with block rewards cut from 32 to 16, and the annual inflation rate plunging from 21% to below 7%. One more thing: do you know how much global enterprise SSD prices rose in the first quarter? 80%。 AI companies compete for computing power, data centers compete for hard drives, and prices have already gone crazy. However, Filecoin's storage costs are not affected by this price increase, as it uses a distributed network. This is possibleU.S. stock market opens with all three major indexes down, SK Hynix rises 5% against the trend: Is capital only clustering in energy and chips?
After the U.S. market opened, it continued to weaken, with the Dow down 0.66%, the Nasdaq 100 down 0.47%, and the S&P 500 down 0.30%.
There are 917 stocks rising and 1,695 stocks falling, with a rise-to-fall ratio of only 0.54, indicating the actual market breadth is weaker than the index decline.
Chip stocks are relatively resilient, with SK Hynix up 5.09%, Micron up 1.99%, TSMC up 1.12%, Broadcom up 1%, and Nvidia only slightly up 0.19%.
On the other hand, Walmart plunged 9.21%, SpaceX fell 4.65%, Tesla dropped 3.25%, and Amazon declined 1.54%.
By sector, crude oil rose 1.79%, driving the energy sector up 1.53%; semiconductors rose 0.86%.
Essential consumer retail fell 5.57%, while telecom, automotive, and durable goods sectors all dropped more than 2%.
It seems tonight is not a full-blown panic but a rapid contraction of capital focus, concentrating on energy and chips.
The indexes did not fall much, but nearly 70% of stocks declined, indicating significant internal market instability.
If market breadth cannot recover later, it is advisable to observe the rise of individual strong stocks with small positions for testing; it is not suitable to blindly chase highs with large positions.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 Over the past two days, the crypto market has experienced a historic violent rally. From August 19 to 20, BTC started around $64,000, broke through layers of resistance, and reached a high of $72,500. At the time of writing, BTC was fluctuating above $72,000, with a 24-hour gain of over 11%, marking the largest single-day gain since March 2025. ETH surged simultaneously, reaching a high of $2,335, with a 24-hour increase close to 20%. Crypto concept stocks surged collectively: Strategy surged 11.95%, Coinbase rose 9.05%, and Circle and BitMine each gained nearly 10%. The most eye-catching data from this round of market activity comes from the derivatives market. In the past 24 hours, over 170,000 people worldwide have been liquidated, with the total liquidation amount approaching $3.3 billion. Among them, short liquidations exceeded 3 billion USD, while long liquidations were only about 250 million USD, with a short to long liquidation ratio exceeding 10 to 1. The largest single liquidation occurred on the Hyperliquid platform, with a BTC-USD perpetual contract valued at $48.8 million. This short liquidation scale is the largest in history since records began in 2021. What drives all this is the resonance of three forces within the same time window. The Treasury's Move: Becent Reveals His Trump Card. The most direct trigger for this surge came from an announcement from the U.S. Treasury Department. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury liquidity support repurchase operations, in a single operation#BTC breaks through 71,500! But what really makes me anxious isn't missing out, it's not knowing when to exit#
BTC has broken through 71,500. ETH has risen above 2,280. Three days ago it was still at 64,000, now it’s directly at 71,500. Honestly, this speed is a bit scary.
People without positions are anxious, afraid of missing out. Those holding positions are also anxious, not knowing when to exit.
I belong to the latter.
I have ETH and BTC in hand, and the profits are already considerable. But I’ve started to feel anxious. Because I’ve experienced too many times the scenario of "not exiting when prices rise, reluctant to exit when prices fall, and eventually losing all profits."
📊 What to do next?
At this point in the market, it has already exceeded most people’s expectations. Now there are only two possible paths:
Either continue to surge, with BTC reaching 73,000-75,000, ETH reaching 2,400-2,500.
Or pull back, with BTC retesting 70,000-71,000, ETH retesting 2,200-2,250.
I don’t know which one it will be. So the only thing I can do is: move the stop loss. Raise the stop loss above the cost basis to ensure this wave of profits won’t be fully given back.
Missing out doesn’t lose money, but giving back profits makes people question their life choices.
💬 Let’s chat in the comments:
Did you hold positions or miss out on this wave? When are you planning to exit? 🫡
$BTC $ETH $SOL Regulatory rules reshape the compliance path through self-certification logic, but incremental capital entry still faces post-hoc challenge rights from the SEC and liquidity restructuring conflicts caused by token airdrops being included in fundraising caps.
The administrative regulatory draft improves institutional capital's discount expectations on policy uncertainty, with marginal risk appetite rebounding. The $5 million startup cap and $75 million annual exemption limit establish the funding scale boundaries for compliant domestic issuance, forcing market makers and project parties to readjust their chip allocation strategies.
The driving factors in order are: the certainty of compliance safe harbor implementation, changes in chip release rhythm after non-cash distributions are counted towards the quota, and congressional legislative struggles suppressing the willingness of U.S.-based institutions to increase positions. Including airdrops in fundraising caps will directly limit the market-making model that raises funds through high-valuation large airdrops, pushing up liquidity discounts in the primary market.
The bullish scenario is based on the assumption that the $75 million exemption quota is quickly absorbed by leading domestic projects and the risk of declaration accountability is controllable. If U.S.-based institutions show continuous net buying of custody positions within 7 days and large projects shift to compliant self-certified issuance, market risk appetite will turn from wait-and-see to premium buying, driving the valuation center of mature tokens with clear revenue streams upward. The invalidation signal for this scenario is the regulator exercising post-hoc veto rights over the first batch of declared projects.
The bearish scenario stems from the legal sword of Damocles effect caused by post-hoc challenge rights and ecosystem contraction triggered by airdrop limits. If market makers suspend market-making due to valuation ambiguity from non-cash distributions, or if September congressional voting resistance causes regulatory splits, leveraged funds will quickly withdraw from high-airdrop expectation sectors. The trigger observation variables for this scenario are the simultaneous decline in on-chain large transfer frequency and decentralized protocol lock-up volume, with the invalidation signal being the Senate passing administrative supporting legislation ahead of schedule.
The self-certification mechanism does not completely eliminate regulatory retrospective risk; responsibility concentrates on issuers, forcing early and mid-stage project teams to extend their chip selling cycles. Only when project teams publicly commit to clearing and compliance costs are lower than $5 million in financing gains do institutions have the conditions to firmly build long-term spot positions.
The most critical observation variables in the next 7 days are the concentration of public comment opinions subsequently released by the three committee members who voted in favor, and the changes in spot net flows of U.S.-compliant custody institutions after disclosure of the $75 million quota details.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？Alibaba (BABA) Q1 revenue 268.9 billion +9%, but operating profit plummeted 57%, pre-market in US stocks down over 4%.
The main reason is a 75% surge in capital expenditure to 67.7 billion, focusing heavily on AI cloud and computing power (related revenue +45%, AI products have seen triple-digit growth for 12 consecutive quarters). Free cash flow net outflow expanded. Short-term profit is under pressure, but AI investment is accelerating, with long-term growth potential.2026.8.20 Evening Market Analysis Summary
Thursday evening's market was like a completely different world compared to yesterday—the top eight cryptocurrencies all surged dramatically, with the market shifting directly from a "stock competition" to a "short squeeze frenzy."
$BTC is around $71,700 today, up over 11% in 24 hours. It violently surged from $64,000 to $72,000, completing the market's shift from "extreme suppression" to "euphoric sentiment." However, the $72,000-$75,000 range is a major technical resistance zone, with the first support below at $68,200-$67,200. If this support breaks, the market will retest the previous consolidation range. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI have entered the extreme overbought zone above 85; after such a sharp rise, a pullback is usually needed to digest profit-taking.
$ETH is the brightest star today, around $2,276, surging 18.75% in a single day, marking the largest daily gain in months. Ethereum leads this rally, outperforming Bitcoin significantly—but it also faces pressure for a correction after being overbought.
$SOL showed strength today at $87.25, up 12.95%. It broke out from the frustrating $74-$77 consolidation box and is pushing toward the $90 mark.
$XRP* finally broke free from the $1 tug-of-war, reaching $1.15, up 14.45%. Whale trading volume surged alongside the overall market, finally pushing the 50-day and 200-day moving averages beneath it.
$DOGE has finally awakened from its $0.07 stagnation, at $0.0766, up 9.47%. After the Bollinger Bands narrowed to the tightest in three years, it has finally chosen a direction.
$BNB returned to around $642, up 6.68%, supported by short-term moving averages pushing upward.
$ADA rose 8.62% to $0.189, boosted by the hard fork plan announcement combined with the overall market rally. LINK is around $10.70, up about 1.42%, finally overcoming the $9.5-$10 hurdle.
ETF data is impressively strong—Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $517.2 million in a single day, the highest since May 4. BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed $284.7 million; Ethereum ETFs also performed well with a $189.15 million net inflow, marking a nine-month single-day high. Real money is flowing in, and the market rally confirms this—the broad surge is the best proof.
The core driver is an epic short squeeze. Over $2.7 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for over 90%, systematically cleared in the $65k-$68.5k range. The Fear and Greed Index jumped overnight from 46 to 62, leaping directly from "fear" into "greed"—this intense sentiment reversal is a classic sign of a short squeeze.
Macro factors also shifted—the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly broke 5.33%, a 19-year high, before retreating to around 5.18% by the close. The US Treasury announced a significant increase in long-term bond repurchase scale (at least doubling), Trump met with crypto industry executives, and the SEC plans to relax token registration exemptions. Multiple positive factors combined to ignite this short squeeze rally.
But don't get too excited yet—Coinbase's premium index remains negative, indicating that demand in the US spot market has not meaningfully returned. This rally is mainly driven by leverage (short squeeze), not spot buying support. Glassnode's on-chain warning: on-chain data remains in a "capitulation phase," and until the realized profit-loss ratio indicator breaks above 2 again, any rebound should be viewed as a local bounce rather than a fundamental market trend reversal.
Overall, Bitcoin and altcoins are flying together—a typical short squeeze rally. ETF data looks good, prices have followed, but chasing the top carries huge risks. $70,000 is the focal point for short-term bulls and bears. A wiser approach is to patiently wait for a pullback to around $68,500 with reduced volume and stabilization before considering low-risk long positions. In the face of extreme sentiment and leverage, risk control is paramount. This market either doesn't come, or when it does, it hits like a thunderbolt—but how far it can go depends on when spot buying truly catches up.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ 我先说结论：我认为现在还不能确认是新周期，但已经出现了一个非常重要的周期切换信号。 截至 8月20日晚上22:35（新加坡时间），$BTC 已经从前几天的 $63K–65K震荡区间快速拉到 $71K附近，两天累计涨幅超过10%，同时ETH也重新站上$2,200。更重要的是，8月19日美国现货BTC ETF净流入约 $5.17亿，ETH ETF净流入约 $1.89亿，说明这次上涨并不完全是散户情绪推动。 现在的链路已经开始变成： BTC突破$65K → 突破$68K → 突破$70K → ETF资金重新流入 → 空头大规模清算 → ETH跟涨 → SOL等高Beta资产开始活跃 这和前面单纯的震荡反弹，确实已经不是一个状态。 但问题来了： 这是不是意味着四年周期重新启动？ 我反而觉得不能这么理解。 过去的BTC周期非常简单： 减半 → 供应减少 → 资金进入 → 牛市 → 顶部 → 熊市 → 再积累 但现在BTC已经彻底变了。 机构、ETF、企业持仓甚至政府相关资金进入之后，市场边际买盘已经不再只是矿工和散户。Fidelity甚至认为，随着BTC市场规模和流动性扩大，过去那种极端的四年周#ETH surges strongly, short positions liquidated over $1.1 billion ETH sees a strong rebound, with a 24-hour increase far exceeding BTC. The market rally triggered a chain short squeeze, with total short liquidations across the market surpassing $1.1 billion. Ethereum short positions account for nearly 40% of the liquidation volume, and short-term buying has created a positive feedback loop driving the price higher.
This round of gains is driven by three converging bullish factors. On the policy front, the White House crypto summit sent a major signal: the U.S. government is considering a large-scale BTC strategic reserve and simultaneously advancing crypto compliance legislation. Industry regulation expectations have significantly eased, and institutional risk appetite has fully recovered. On the macro level, the U.S. Treasury has increased long-term Treasury repurchases, causing long-term yields to fall rapidly, easing valuation pressure on high-valued crypto assets, while a weaker dollar further benefits digital assets. On the funding side, spot ETH ETFs continue to see net inflows, combined with a large accumulation of short positions betting on a pullback. After the price broke key resistance, a series of forced liquidations were triggered, with shorts forced to cover, further amplifying the rally and creating a classic short squeeze scenario. Much of this rally’s momentum comes from short liquidations; after passive buying subsides, there is a lack of new capital to sustain it. The Fed’s FOMC internal disagreements on rate hikes remain unresolved; if inflation data rebounds, rising Treasury yields could suppress ETH’s performance. Meanwhile, the rapid short-term gains have led to a large buildup of short-term profit-taking positions.
The logic of U.S. crypto-friendly policies and ongoing institutional ETH accumulation remains intact, so after digesting floating profits through consolidation, there is still room to rise; however, short-term caution is needed for technical pullback risks after the liquidation wave ends $BTC $ETH $SOL Yesterday's salary was only 9u😭, but it's okay to be content and happy, still grateful to okx!
Let's talk about today, $BTC spot orders hit 70000, from 63000 to 70000 was quite comfortable. Unfortunately, I didn't use leverage. Today the highest touched 72000, opened a 50x short position, took a small profit, not bad.
$ETH I shorted last night, entered at 2180 with a stop loss at 2240. Luckily I set a stop loss, yesterday it surged to 2340 and almost blew me out! I always thought hitting over 2300 overnight was unlikely, thankfully I set the stop loss, very lucky. It’s scary to think about, so always set stop losses! Don’t sleep carelessly on high-leverage trades without stop losses😪
$SNDK MU Micron SKHYNIX Hynix, talking about these three storage stocks together, today saw a slight rise, stabilizing the trend and no longer falling for now. My view on this sector remains the same, there should be another wave of gains, but there will be some volatile grinding in between. If you can’t hold, you can exit first. I’m still bullish.
Today's OKB and BNB are definitely worth mentioning, BNB rose more than 5%! OKB rose less today since it already gained some yesterday, but still kept up, breaking above 105. Didn’t expect it to be so strong, missed the rhythm, was thinking of dollar-cost averaging on a pullback, but it rallied instead. Can’t argue with that. Will watch for a pullback later!
Today the US stock market was mostly down, with the S&P and Nasdaq slightly retreating. The US market has been high for too long, plus storage weakening, a drop is healthier. Both technical and sentiment aspects need a correction. I think shorting QQQ is an opportunity! You can open positions above 720 points. Short-term top estimated around 740-750, but might not reach that. Mid-short term target is 660 points!
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Compliance is diverging, not unifying
Many people see the delay of CLARITY as a negative for the entire industry, but they fail to see that the split is already happening: BTC is unaffected because it has no project team that needs regulatory definition; ETH benefits indirectly because the settlement demand for stablecoins and RWA will only increase; but most altcoins are stuck in the gray area of "whether they are securities" and cannot move. The same regulatory chaos means completely different situations for different assets. Capital diversion has already begun; it is not "the crypto market is falling," but "those who chose the wrong assets are falling." When regulatory uncertainty becomes the norm, the "regulatory immunity" of the asset itself becomes the core premium factor in pricing. BTC's premium comes from "no explanation needed," ETH's premium comes from "already proven," and altcoins' discount comes from "awaiting judgment." The divergence in the performance of these three types of assets over the next 6 to 12 months will be more extreme than most people imagine. Institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity have accelerated the promotion of BTC ETFs after CLARITY stalled because they understand: for compliance departments, BTC is the only crypto asset that does not require a legal opinion, and this "regulatory whitelist" status itself is the rarest moat.Minutes 9 to 3, three want a rate hike! $BTC just broke 71,000, is there a knife hanging over its head? #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
I went through this minutes from start to finish tonight to tell you some truths.
Numbers first:
July FOMC 9 to 3 to maintain 3.50%–3.75%, fifth consecutive hold
Three dissenting votes: Harker, Kashkari, Logan, all want a 25bp hike — first time since 2016 three dissenters aligned in the same direction
CME pricing for September: no change 67.3%, hike 32.7%
30-year US Treasury yield 5.28%
But don’t just look at the vote, here are three coded phrases from the minutes by Lao Zhou:
① "Several" support a rate hike — more than those three. The original wording in the minutes is "Several," meaning the three dissenters are just the obvious ones; under the table, there are more supporting a hike. Even the Fed’s press office confirmed this.
② "Many" left a door open. Many participants clearly said: if inflation doesn’t come down, tightening must continue. Holding steady ≠ no hike, this is a hook left for September.
③ First time naming financial stability risks. The minutes explicitly state: vulnerabilities in AI infrastructure financing, AI stock overvaluation — if the market lowers earnings expectations for AI, it could trigger broad asset price repricing, which then transmits to financial institutions. Plus, two officials discussed volatility in the US Treasury market. Official Fed stamp: AI valuation is a systemic risk.
So why does the market still dare to bet 67% on holding steady? Because the data saved the day:
• July CPI year-over-year 3.4%, cooling down
• July nonfarm payrolls -23,000, turned negative
• Rate hike expectations dropped from 63% at end of July to 32.7%
But the old hand slams the table to emphasize: the biggest risk isn’t a September hike, it’s "the market hiking itself."
Look at three numbers, all pulled today from neodata:
• Oracle CDS soared to 217.9bp, a historic high — free cash flow turned negative, downgraded by S&P to BBB-, AI giants are no longer favored in the bond market
• AI bonds issued $236 billion by end of May, +357% year-over-year — cloud giants issued $159 billion in bonds in one year, Morgan Stanley says the full year will hit $570 billion, AI is draining long-term funds crazily
• Momentum stocks and AI stocks 30-day correlation 0.93 — highest since 2020, when AI falls, quant funds collectively dump in the same direction
This is called structural bearishness: not the Fed’s rate hike knife, but a noose formed by long-term rates + AI valuation + credit spreads.
What about $BTC? It just broke 71,000 today — weak dollar + falling rate hike expectations theoretically benefit it. But listen to Lao Zhou: BTC can be independent of US Treasury rallies, but not of US Treasury crashes. If 10-year Treasury hits 5%, 30-year stands above 5.4%, the "broad repricing" named in the minutes will come, and BTC’s short squeeze rally will also be left out in the cold.
Watch four signals, everything else is noise:
August CPI / Nonfarm — inflation rebound or employment bounce, September hike probability instantly takes off from 32.7%
Jackson Hole — Powell’s tone, hawk-dove power struggle
30-year Treasury 5.4% — breaking this is the liquidation bell for AI overvaluation sectors
Oracle-like cloud vendor CDS — will AI credit system continue to deteriorate or stabilize
With the data laid out like this, the Fed is holding the knife but not cutting, the market is trembling first, what’s your take?
#美联储 #FOMC #美债收益率 #AI估值 #BTC#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
Tonight belongs to a macro liquidity-driven risk asset broad rally: US Treasury yields fall, US tech stocks (SanDisk), Bitcoin, and gold all strengthen together.
• SanDisk is driven by both industry fundamentals and macro factors; Bitcoin is more driven by macro liquidity, policy sentiment, and leveraged liquidation.
• Differences:
◦ SanDisk: follows the storage industry cycle, with earnings reports and chip pricing having a big impact.
◦ Bitcoin: is much more sensitive to US Treasury yields, the US dollar, and regulatory news than ordinary US stocks.
Key variables to watch going forward:
1. Whether long-term US Treasury yields will rebound again (if yields rebound, both are likely to come under pressure)
2. Subsequent US economic data, which may change the Fed's rate cut expectations
3. Whether crypto regulatory news will be realized, or if it is just speculative hype; when news materializes, it is easy to "buy the rumor, sell the fact"
$BTC $ETH $SNDK