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#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
The S&P 500 recently closed at 7,798.99 points, setting a new all-time closing high, and even briefly broke through 7,800 points during the session. Now, with only about 2.6% left to reach 8,000 points, this previously seemingly aggressive target is gradually entering the market's view. (Reuters)
I believe this round of rally is no longer just a simple "rate cut trade"; more importantly, two logics are beginning to resonate:
First, inflationary pressures continue to ease. The latest PPI was flat month-on-month, further easing market concerns about another Fed rate hike. U.S. Treasury yields fell, easing valuation pressure on growth stocks. (Reuters)
Second, and more critically—corporate earnings are starting to take hold of AI valuations. JPMorgan has just raised its S&P 500 target for the end of 2026 from 7,800 to 8,000, and raised its 2026 EPS forecast to $365, citing stronger-than-expected earnings and the gradual conversion of AI capital spending into cloud business growth, orders, and cash flow. (Reuters)
So now the real trading logic in the market has shifted from:
"Will AI Make Money in the Future?"
Gradually become:
"Just how fast is AI investment realizing profits?"
But the closer it got to 8000 points, the less willing I was to simply chase the index. There is nothing magical about 8000 itself; what truly determines how far this bull market can go is whether earnings growth can sustain higher valuations.
If earnings continue to be revised upward, 8,000 may just be a round number; If profits start to fall behind, then the fact that historical highs are constantly being refreshed now could also mean the market has already overdrawn a significant portion of its future.
Do you think the S&P should first reach 8000, or make a decent pullback first?Listed Bitcoin miners’ hash rate fell from 368.3 EH/s in Q4 2025 to 319 EH/s in Q2 2026, down 13.4%.
Excluding Bitdeer’s expansion, the group’s hash rate dropped 21.2%, sharper than the network’s 10.6% decline.
Shift toward AI/HPC workloads and weaker mining economics drove the contraction.
Will AI competition for power reshape the future of Bitcoin mining?$SNDK Today's SNDK finally let out the pent-up breath.
A few days ago, I looked at SanDisk's financial report and was honestly a bit stunned.
Quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion, up 51% quarter-on-quarter; Gross margin reached 84.6%, and the data center business doubled directly, yet even after the earnings came out, the stock price still took a hit.
At that moment, my feeling was: if you're not satisfied with this, what else does the market want?
Later, I realized that what everyone worried about wasn't whether SanDisk made money this quarter, but whether the money earned now could be kept. After all, the storage industry used to be too cyclical. When prices rose, everyone was considered a stock god, but once capacity came up, profits vanished without a trace.
So what really matters today on Investor Day isn't how many times management says "AI," but that it starts answering a more practical question:
How can SanDisk stop being just a cyclical stock?
Currently, the company has signed new long-term agreements with eight clients, covering about 50% of the expected shipments in fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal year 2028. Simply put, it means locking in part of demand and prices in advance, avoiding the days of "eating meat this year, drinking wind next year."
More directly, management's 2028-2030 fiscal year targets include about 80% non-GAAP gross margin and about 50% adjusted free cash flow, and stated plans to return all remaining cash to shareholders after completing necessary investments.
Reading this, I roughly understand why the market is willing to pay todayToday (August 14), Ethereum ($ETH) can be described as "weak oscillation, barely closing higher." Although prices have stabilized, upward momentum is insufficient, and the overall market remains consolidating within a narrow range.
📊 A quick overview of today's market trends
· Price performance: $ETH at $1,860 - 1,885 - 1,896 but quickly stalled and pulled back.
· Price Comparison: $ETH performed slightly better than Bitcoin today ($BTC dipped slightly by about 0.14% - 0.18% over the same period), showing a relatively independent resistance to decline. However, overall, both are trading sideways at high levels.
🔍 Market characteristics and bullish and bearish tug-of-war
1. On-chain signals are weak, with clear long-bear divergence:
· Over the past week, retail wallets holding 100,000-10,000 $ETH sold about 160,000 $ETH, while whale addresses (holding 10,000-100,000 $ETH) bought about 100,000 $ETH. This indicates retail investors are selling while large players are accumulating.
· Exchange net flow and reserve metrics show selling slightly dominated, and Coinbase's premium index is also in negative territory, indicating that crypto-native investors in the U.S. market remain cautious.
2. Institutional funding support:
· Unlike the cautious on-chain data, US spot $ETH $ETF recorded a net inflow of $244.9 million last week, with only $8.9 million in modest outflows so far this week. This indicates that sentiment among traditional institutional investors is improving, with their buying providing downward support for ETH's price.
3. Insufficient liquidity and easily amplified volatility:
· Today, overall market liquidity is low, $ETH ETH fluctuated by 0.19% within 15 minutes due to only a small number of sell orders. In this environment, prices are easily driven by small orders but lack sustained upward momentum.
📈 Key points for reference
Considering technical aspects and traders' views, the following positions should be watched today:
· Resistance Above:
· $1,890 - $1,896: Short-term minor resistance, tested multiple times today without result.
· $1,922 (100-day moving average): Only after a breakout can upside potential be opened.
· $1,961 - $1,980: Stronger supply zone.
· Support levels below:
· $1,865 - $1,870: The area where the 20-day and 50-day moving averages are located, serving as the current first line of defense.
· $1,850 - $1,852: Short-term key support; a break below could trigger further pullbacks.
· $1,809: Stronger support below the level.
💡 Summary
Today, $ETH is stuck in a stalemate of "pressure above, support below." While institutional buying and whale accumulation provide support, retail selling pressure and cautious market sentiment have limited gains. Without a clear catalyst, ETH is expected to continue consolidating in the $1,850 - $1,900 range, awaiting direction selection. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens Currently, $SOL's liquidity premium is shifting from speculative meme hot money to stablecoin settlements dominated by USDC, with the core issue being whether on-chain retained funds can support a valuation center reshaping.
On the market front, the high turnover rate driven by speculative funds makes it difficult to form long-term liquidity barriers; the growth of stablecoin stock on-chain and the actual frequency of transfers have become key indicators for testing capital retention. Compared to the inflated trading volume brought by high leverage in derivatives, the accumulated funds brought by merchant access and payment scenarios are more resistant to volatility.
The order of capital flow drivers is: net inflow scale of stablecoins like USDC, settlement integration between merchants and wallets, and competition in capital flow distribution with other high-traffic networks. If funds only play short-term within trading networks, valuation elasticity will be limited by the rapid decline of market sentiment.
The upward scenario is based on stablecoin settlement volumes continuously surpassing speculative trading volumes. When on-chain stablecoin transfer volumes remain consistently high and accumulate steadily, and derivatives contract positions do not experience abnormal squeezing, the spot deposited funds will push prices to break out of the stage range; If merchant access growth falls short of expectations, this upward channel will expire.
The downside scenario depends on external network competition and capital inflows. If Ethereum's mature capital pool and BNB Chain's platform traffic entry accelerates to capture the settlement market, or if Tron maintains a monopoly over daily transfers, stablecoin growth on Solana slows, and spot buying without speculative hot money support will struggle to withstand consolidation pressure; If on-chain transaction fees rise sharply and break the low-cost advantage, the downside logic will be confirmed.
The core signal for judging failure lies in the divergence between the actual settlement proportion of stablecoins and the contract funding rate. If stablecoin funds continue to rise but the price breaks below key support, it means large funds are using payment narratives to cover spot exits.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on monitoring the net USDC inflow scale on Solana, changes in derivatives open interest, and fluctuations in stablecoin transfer shares with competing networks.
#OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温 #CLARITY表决待定, the SEC rules have not been implemented[Blockchain Asset Morning Report | August 14]
BTC $63,000｜ETH $1,880
🔥 Today's Market
Yesterday, US inflation data wasn't bad, but BTC still didn't rise.
The current market situation is a bit awkward:
The positive news didn't hold the price up, and the negative news didn't break through directly.
BTC has been grinding around 63,000 for several consecutive days; personally, I remain cautious for now.
A few days ago, there was a clear inflow into ETFs, but recently they have started to turn into outflows, with a single-day net outflow of about $131 million on August 13.
Funding began to waver.
ETH performed slightly better; yesterday, the ETH ETF still saw a net inflow of about $7.4 million.
So my current thoughts are:
Don't rush to copy BTC yet; you can keep watching ETH.
😈 A mountain stronghold
The top 50 market capitalization remains diverged today.
Relatively stronger are UNI, AAVE, ONDO, while the weaker ones are mainly WLD, NEAR, PEPE.
The biggest problem with knockoffs now isn't that no one is hyping them,
It's because the persistence is too poor.
A quick pull will get people to sell; it's still early to form a sector rally.
⸻
📰 Today is worth paying attention to
(1) The SEC suddenly canceled today's Crypto Rules meeting
The market was originally looking forward to today's "Regulation Crypto," but the SEC canceled the meeting at the last minute.
This is a bit unexpected.
The CLARITY Act is stuck again, and the SEC's own rules have also been postponed,
US crypto regulation is now somewhat "walking and watching."
(2) BTC ETFs have seen significant capital outflows again
On August 13, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $131 million, marking the second consecutive day of outflows.
There was just a round of capital recovery, and now it's starting to fluctuate again.
So in the short term, don't be too superstitious about the story that "institutions are always buying."
(3) ETH ETFs continue to see positive inflows
While BTC funds weakened, ETH ETFs still recorded a net inflow of about $7.4 million yesterday.
The amount isn't large,
But at least it shows that funds have not completely abandoned ETH.
(4) U.S. PPI came in below expectations
The July PPI was below market expectations, which is theoretically good for risk assets.
But BTC has basically shown no response.
This detail actually pays attention to me more:
Macro positive factors can't pull it off, indicating that what is truly lacking now is incremental capital.
⸻
🧠 My opinion
I won't be too aggressive these days.
If BTC continues to grind around 63,000, I actually want to wait for it to give a more comfortable position.
I will continue to keep an eye on ETH.
As for the mountain stronghold,
Now is not the time for me to make a big move.
When BTC stops moving and ETH suddenly starts to increase volume,
At that time, I actually got serious.
For now, I'll have some tea first and watch them keep fighting.
DYOR#CPI and PPI cooled simultaneously, widening the rate hike divergence $BTC $ETH Evening analysis: 63,000 fell for the second time today, and this time it fell even lower than in the early morning
At 4 p.m., $BTC once again fell below 63,000. This time it hit a low of 62,666, 150 points lower than 62,818 in the early morning. Now 62,830 is hovering in the low range between 62,700 and 62,900, not pulling back as quickly as it was in the early morning.
Today's storyline is clear: it crashed to 62,818 in the early morning, spending five hours climbing back above 63,000; At 4 p.m., it fell again, dropping to 62,666, then hovered at a low level without moving out. The same 63,000 level was broken down a second time, and the recovery was clearly weaker than the first. The bulls' confidence in the morning was already depleted by the afternoon.
$ETH weakened in tandem, slipping from 1878 to 1868, and now at 1875. Although it hasn't fallen as deeply as BTC, it still lacks the strength to climb.
Why did it suddenly crash again in the afternoon? Because at 8:30 tonight, retail sales data is available. The market shorted ahead of the data release—it didn't need to know the quality of the data, just that "risk outweighs opportunity" was enough. The early morning sell-off could be explained as a stop-loss sweep, but this afternoon sell-in is more like actively reducing risk exposure before the data, lowering positions first, and then deciding on direction after the data comes out.
Structurally, the second loss of 63,000 is more significant than the first. The first time can be described as a "false breakdown, sweeping stop loss, and being repaired"; The second is a "true break, failed recovery, and a lower low." If tonight's data is weak, 62,666 is very likely to fail, and the next stop is 62,000. If the data is unexpectedly strong and rebounds from 62,800 back above 63,000, then this week's consolidation pattern can barely hold.
Key Levels: 62,666 below BTC is today's low; if broken, look for 62,000. Above 63,000, turn back into resistance; 63,600 is a further hurdle. ETH below 1,868; if broken, target 1,852. Above 1,880 is resistance; 1,900 is a hard wall.
Tonight at 8:30, the last statistic of the week is also the second life-or-death test of 63,000.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
#CLARITY表决待定, SEC rules have not been implemented SanDisk is the biggest certainty in 2026 and 2027 (in-depth article on homepage, including target price and earnings analysis, for long-term investors)
My target price is $3,000
This goal is built on three variables: NAND supply and demand entering a new price cycle, AI inference raising storage needs from traditional data center needs to new scales, and SanDisk converting part of cyclical revenue into more visible revenue and cash flow through long-term customer contracts.
SanDisk's investment logic for 2026 to 2027 has expanded from simple NAND price increases to four lines: AI inference, long-term supply contracts, enterprise-level product upgrades, and shareholder returns. These four lines will be directly reflected in the financial report every quarter going forward.
After running out of memory, it's time to run out of flash memory.
$SNDK PPI has dropped, so why hasn't BTC increased?
The core reason: I believe the market has already anticipated trading in advance, and BTC is becoming "desensitized" to macro data.
Logical chain: Inflation cools → rate hike expectations weaken→ risk assets benefit. This is true, but without actual capital inflows, the positive news can only remain sentimental.
Traditional assets have begun trading "inflation cooling," and the crypto market is still waiting for incremental funds.
Currently, BTC is stuck in the $62,600-$64,500 range, with the key variable shifting from "data quality" to "whether funds are following suit."
Breakouts with no volume are mostly false signals. Going forward, attention should be paid to ETF capital inflows, trading volume coordination, and whether employment data remains stable.
PPI confirms one fact: a single macro data can create volatility but cannot drive trends alone. What the market lacks now is not a better PPI, but a real round of incremental capital. Until then, sideways consolidation remains the norm.
$BTC
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened What really made me reconsider SOL was not that Meme is booming again, but that it is competing for a market much larger than Meme: payments.
In the past, when talking about $SOL, the most common things to mention were speed, cheapness, and active on-chain transactions. But these advantages in a meme are actually hard to achieve long-term valuation. WIF is hot today, it might switch to another coin tomorrow; trading volume looks exaggerated, but money may not remain. Payments are completely different. If stablecoins really start shifting from "US dollars on exchanges" to money used daily by ordinary people and businesses, then every transfer requires a settlement network cheap and fast enough, which happens to coincide with Solana's strengths.
That's why I think SOL's relationship with USDC and USDT is far more important than its relationship with a particular meme.
In recent years, stablecoins have become less and less like pure crypto products. Previously, people mainly bought USDT to buy coins, but now cross-border transfers, payments, enterprise settlements, RWA, and even AI agent payments are moving toward stablecoins. Circle wants to continue building financial infrastructure through USDC and Arc, and traditional payment companies are also experimenting on-chain. If this trend continues, the real beneficiaries will not necessarily be just issuers like CRCL; the public chains responsible for handling this money flow will also gain new valuation logic.
But the competition SOL faces is far more brutal than in the Meme era.
BNB has a huge user portal for trading platforms, Ethereum has a large accumulation of stablecoins and DeFi assets, and Tron is even more so—it has been doing USDT transfers for many years. Solana wants to compete for payments, but can't just prove "my fees are lower," because ordinary users don't care what the underlying chain is called. For them, as long as one dollar passes and stays close to one, and the funds arrive within seconds, that's enough.
The real winner is who can pack this experience into wallets, exchanges, merchants, and payment apps, so that users don't even realize they're using blockchain $BTC
This actually makes me feel that future public chain competition may become increasingly boring.
People don't discuss TPS every day, nor do they automatically migrate just because a chain's technical architecture is better. Just like ordinary people don't study the clearing system behind Visa when swiping Visa, if crypto really goes to large-scale use, the most successful chain might be the one users don't even feel exist.
So now, when looking at $SOL, I tend to focus less on "what meme came out today" and focus more on the scale, payment scenarios, and real transfers of stablecoins like USDC on Solana.
Meme can make a chain go viral overnight, while payments can process billions or even tens of billions of dollars in undiscussed transactions every day.
The former is easier to create a bull market, while the latter can build infrastructure.
If one day everyone uses Solana every day without realizing they are using Solana, that might be the biggest market win for SOL.
#SOL #Solana #USDC #USDT #CRCL #BNB #稳定币 #Crypto #加密货币 #欧易星球The overall macro and market outlook is bearish, mainly for the following reasons:
1. Several Federal Reserve officials have made hawkish remarks, and current data is insufficient to stimulate expectations of a Fed rate cut. Further employment and inflation data in August are needed to judge the rate outlook for September.
2. Negotiations between the US and Iran have made no progress; moreover, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will initiate strict economic sanctions on Iran next week, and the US Secretary of Defense has stated intentions to completely block the Strait.
3. The Japanese yen will see further rate hikes in September, which will lead arbitrage funds to continue selling to repay debt. Attention should be paid to changes in the USD/JPY exchange rate.
4. Market expectations for the September crypto bill are not optimistic. This can be seen from last night’s performance where the Nasdaq and S&P closed higher, but crypto broadly declined, indicating sentiment favors US stocks more.
5. The largest publicly listed Bitcoin reserve company has not stopped selling Bitcoin, which undermines market bullish confidence. We need to see MicroStrategy’s disclosure of position changes next week to assess whether bullish sentiment is recovering $BTC $ETH $SPCX #AMD完成历史最大美元债发行: Raised $4.75 billion
The leader had something to say
AMD issued $4.75 billion in bonds, the largest in the company's history. AI infrastructure expansion, capital expenditure, and general corporate use—all three require money. NVIDIA is launching a $500 billion financing platform, Intel is issuing stocks, and AMD has chosen bonds. Competition in AI chips has extended from products and orders to financial capacity. Whoever has the lowest financing cost can last several rounds in the expansion race.
But whether this money can be converted into income remains to be seen by the market. The pressure on valuations from large-scale capital expenditures will not disappear just because of different financing methods $BTC $ETH $OKB
On the market side, today the live stream shorted a large spot near 63,600, and after reaching around 62,600, a 1,000-point fluctuation was pocketed.
The logic is related to the rebound after the data is realized. After CPI and PPI cooled down simultaneously, the Bitcoin market jumped from 62,900 to around 63,600, with short-term sentiment mostly released. 63,600 is the lower edge of the early chip concentration zone; if it hits there, go short, set a stop loss, and target 62,000 to 62,500. Today it directly hit 62,600, with a steady rhythm.
SanDisk's short position at 1377 ran at 1345, so I'm not in a rush to enter for now. SanDisk's recent surge is a long-term framework set by investors daily, but short-term chasing is not suitable; wait until it's digested before discussing.
All of the above analyses are time-sensitive. You must set stop-loss orders for your orders. Good luck to you.SanDisk investors will not focus on 80% gross margin in the future
I believe the AI storage market can still move, but SanDisk has already moved from "buying demand" to "fulfilling validation."
On August 13, the company released a long-term model for FY2028–FY2030: annual revenue growth of about 15%–19%, non-GAAP gross margin of about 80%, operating margin of about 75%, and plans to return all excess cash to shareholders after business investment. After the news, the stock price rose more than 15% intraday, indicating the market has already paid part of the "trust fee."
What I'm more concerned about are the multi-year agreements it signed with eight clients: it is expected to cover about 50% of FY2027's NAND bit, and FY2028's about two-thirds. Commitments, minimum financial protection, and structured pricing can buffer the downturn, but whether long-term goals can be realized ultimately depends on whether the contract can turn into cash flow.
My approach: Don't chase the post-launch jump; first control AI storage warehouses at 3%, capped at 5%. Only if there are two consecutive quarters of "protocol coverage improvement + data center revenue growth + free cash flow rate improvement" will the rate be increased by 1% in two consecutive quarters; If ASP and gross margin decline for two consecutive quarters, the price will be halved.
The 2030 PPT is not the answer to valuation; predictable cash flow is.
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
$SNDK Goldman Sachs has taken NEOS in, but what matters most about ETH isn't the poster, but how NEHI actually makes money.
It uses Ethereum ETPs as exposure, then sells related call options for monthly income. Once the market gets lively, even the abacus beads start to dance. Distributions look appealing, but the upside potential may be cut off by options.
I compare NEHI's total returns and spot performance, then look at the proportion of option income and capital returns in distributions. Focusing only on the distribution rate is like only checking salary arrivals, ignoring credit card statements.
Goldman Sachs can provide channels and won't generate an extra on-chain fee for Ethereum. Product stories are product stories; ETH itself depends on active addresses, fees, and capital flow—these three are the unmasked faces.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be aware of the risks #$ETH This article is very solidly written, especially the turning point of "What else does the market want?" really hit a chord with many people from a few days ago. I casually helped you polish a version in the previous style, keeping the $SNDK symbol, focusing more on trading experience and market sentiment—use it as you see fit.
$SNDK I finally managed to let this breath out after holding it in until today.
When I recently looked at SanDisk's financial report, my first reaction was confused too.
Quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion, up 51% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 84.6%, and the data center business doubled.
And what happened? The earnings report still saw the stock price crash.
At that moment, I had only one thought in my mind: If this isn't enough, what else does the market want?
Later, after calming down, I realized that what everyone feared wasn't SanDisk not making money this season, but that the money it earned wouldn't be kept.
The storage industry is too dependent on cycles; when prices rise, everyone is like a god. Once capacity is rolled up, profits evaporate instantly.
So today, the truly informative part of Investor Day isn't how many times they talk about AI, but SanDisk's direct answer to a question:
Can it stop being just a cyclical stock?
The answer is quite straightforward:
New long-term agreements have already been signed with 8 customers, covering about 50% of shipments in fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal year 2028.
Simply put, it means locking in some demand and prices in advance, minimizing the "eat meat this year, drink the wind next year" fluctuation.
More importantly, the goals set by management:
From fiscal years 2028 to 2030, non-GAAP gross margin will be around 80%, adjusted free cash flow margin will be 50%, and all remaining cash will be returned to shareholders after necessary investments are completed.
Seeing this, I roughly understand why capital is willing to reprice SNDK today.
Previously, the market only thought about NAND price increases when looking $SNDK.
Now, the company wants the market to believe that it is selling not just storage chips, but the increasingly scarce "data warehouse" of AI data centers.
Computing power is responsible for making AI think, while storage is responsible for keeping AI in mind.
Everyone used to focus on the former, but now someone is finally paying close attention to the latter.
But I myself still don't dare to call it 'Stars and Sea' directly.
Long-term goals are ultimately goals. Whether HBF can be implemented, whether long-term contracts can truly sustain profits, and how much gross margin remains if NAND prices fall—all will be tested quarter by quarter.
So today, I mostly saw it as a logical fix, not as a trend reversal.
If the pullback doesn't break through the key level, I'll consider following a bit; If it's just sentiment rallying with no volume, I won't be stubborn.
After all, the most expensive thing in the stock market is telling yourself "this time is different."
Do you have $SNDK? Do you think this is a rebound or a logic switch?
If tomorrow opens high and then falls, will you stay or leave?
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens, #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points expectation heats up #闪迪投资者日后, and long-term targets become the focus UNI/USDT Short-Term Prediction
Current Price: The price is trading around $UNI 3.431, showing a drop of -1.37%.
Resistance: If buyers return, the next target is near $3.605.
Support: If the price falls further, support sits near $UNI 3.427.
Turnover: The 24h turnover is $5.39M.
Disclaimer: Crypto is volatile. Not financial advice.#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #OKX.ai 首先，请你只交易闪迪的正股，而不是短期投机并且加杠杆。 然后我们正式开始： 我知道你们都想在看文章之前得到结论，那我把结论放在一开始，闪迪的2027年底目标价格3000美元一股。 我的话就放在这里。 #SandiskLongTermTargets 闪迪是2026和2027年最大的确定性：我的目标价是3000美元 这个目标建立在三个变量上：NAND供需进入新的价格周期，AI推理把存储需求从传统数据中心需求提高到新的规模，闪迪正在通过长期客户合同把一部分周期性收入转成可见度更高的收入和现金流。 8月5日公布的FY2026第四季度财报和8月13日Investor Day把这三件事情同时放到了财务数据里。按照8月14日约1528美元的股价计算，3000美元对应接近一倍的上涨空间，对应大约4650亿美元的股权价值。这个估值需要2027年的盈利继续兑现，也需要投资者开始按照持续自由现金流给闪迪定价。 先讲闪迪到底做什么。闪迪的核心产品是NAND Flash，也就是非易失性闪存。断电以后，NAND里面的数据仍然能够保存。数据中心SSD、电脑SSD、手机存储、汽车存储、SD卡、U盘、移动SSD背后的核上次就说了，AI 存储短线反弹还可以追一波
昨晚收盘，闪迪 $SNDK：+11.5% 海力士：+7.3%
闪迪
$SNDK
和海力士继续涨，就是在证明：
AI 存储周期可能比大家想的更长
之前 AI 主线主要看 $NVDA、GPU、算力卡，但现在资金开始意识到，AI 数据中心不是只堆 GPU。
海力士涨的是 HBM 龙头逻辑，闪迪
$SNDK
涨的是 NAND / 企业级 SSD 逻辑。
做下后面的行情预期分析：
第一种：强势延续
如果
$SMH
继续站稳，$NVDA 不破位，$SNDK、$MU、$AVGO、$MRVL、$ANET、$VRT 轮动上涨，那科技股行情还能继续扩散。
这种情况下，主线会从 GPU 继续扩到：
存储、光通信、电力、液冷、数据中心基建。
第二种：高位震荡
这是我认为概率最高的情况。
AI 主线不结束，但涨太快的票开始分化。
强基本面的继续轮动，弱票和纯情绪票回撤。
策略上不追高，等回踩关键均线或财报确认。
第三种：情绪退潮
如果
$SMH
跌破关键支撑，$NVDA、$AVGO、$MU、$SNDK 集体放量下杀，同时小盘股和高 Beta 也回落，那就说明风险偏好开始降温。
这种情况下，要先防守，不要硬扛高波动科技股。
我个人认为，短线反弹还没有结束，可以继续持仓。
长线要控制仓位，反弹结束我还是看回调，洗洗也更健康，长期看好#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 $ETH [ Government supports Bank of Japan rate hike ]
[ Perhaps $BTC Before the bull market starts, there will be another liquidity tightening ]
The Japanese government has always kept its distance from monetary policy
A common saying is "Let the central bank do what the central bank should do."
Now that the government directly supports rate hikes, it shows that suppressing yen depreciation and handling yen arbitrage trades is no longer just the Bank of Japan's own task
[ Both the US and Japan believe that yen arbitrage trading is more of a speculative activity ]
Japan's Finance Minister said that both the US and Japan believe that for many years, the impact of yen arbitrage trading on the exchange rate has come more from speculative activity than actual demand
Japan has also made it clear that it will intervene again in the foreign exchange market if necessary
This approach is clear: if the yen's weakness is mainly driven by crowded arbitrage positions, Japan does not have to wait for trade and capital flows to gradually change
Raising interest rates can increase the cost of borrowing yen, while foreign exchange intervention can cause the yen to suddenly appreciate, directly reducing the success rate of the "borrowing yen and buying overseas assets" trade
[ The U.S. stance is becoming clearer ]
Since last October, Bassent has been urging Japan to advance steady and orderly interest rate hikes
Raising interest rates to narrow spreads and intervening to increase exchange rate volatility
[ The Impact of This Event on Global Liquidity and BTC ]
The end of yen arbitrage has directly impacted BTC by short-term liquidity drainage
Perhaps before the BTC bull market starts, there will be another liquidity tightening🚨 THE MACRO PICTURE IS SHIFTING — BUT MARKETS ARE REACTING DIFFERENTLY
This week’s data is sending a fairly consistent message:
📉 Inflation is cooling.
👷 Labor conditions are loosening.
🏦 The case for another rate hike is becoming harder to justify.
CPI eased from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY, while core CPI slipped from 2.6% to 2.5%.
PPI showed an even larger cooling trend, falling from 5.5% to 4.7% YoY, with core PPI dropping from 4.7% to 4.2%.
Initial jobless claims also climbed to around 209K.
Put together, the message is becoming clearer: inflationary pressure is moderating while the labor market is gradually losing some heat.
But the Fed isn’t speaking with one voice.
Some policymakers continue to argue that policy needs to remain restrictive, while others believe current rates are already sufficiently tight.
Markets, however, are increasingly focused on the data rather than the debate.
Treasury yields have eased, rate expectations have shifted and equities have pushed toward record territory.
🛢️ Oil is also helping the inflation story. WTI and Brent have pulled back, reducing some of the geopolitical premium surrounding energy prices.
And then comes the interesting part:
🇺🇸 U.S. stocks → pricing stronger rate-cut expectations
🥇 Gold → holding elevated levels as defensive demand persists
₿ $BTC → still struggling to translate the macro improvement into momentum
💾 $SNDK → ripping higher and pulling attention toward the storage/semiconductor trade
Same macro backdrop.
Completely different market reactions.
That divergence matters.
Wall Street is already leaning into the possibility of easier financial conditions, while Bitcoin remains stuck waiting for stronger liquidity and confirmation.
The macro direction may be becoming clearer.
The bigger question is which asset will respond first — and which one is still lagging. 👀
$BTC $SNDK $XAU
#DailyOrbit
#SP500Nears8000 #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit The current US stock market is like a multi-sided seesaw of light, cloud, soft, hard
Light, cloud, storage, software, money has not really left AI, but has been moving back and forth between these directions.
The most typical is these two days.
12 After Lumentum's financial report, optical communication became the center of the market again. $LITE's latest quarterly revenue was $1.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 109%. The median revenue guidance for the next quarter is around $1.25 billion, and management continues to emphasize the demand for high-speed optical connections in AI data centers.
On the same day, CRWV's second-quarter revenue was $2.575 billion, more than doubling compared to the same period last year. The revenue backlog has reached approximately $104 billion, and this does not include the more than $25 billion new customer commitments at the beginning of the third quarter.
NBIS's second-quarter revenue reached $582.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 454%, and the demand for AI Cloud continues to expand rapidly.
So the logic of that day was very clear: Light is rising, and the cloud is rising, and AI infrastructure is once again occupying the center.
But at the same time, the software is falling.
Palantir and Microsoft fell about 2.2% and 2.3% respectively on the day, and the market retraced a long-standing issue: Is the stronger AI a benefit or a substitute for traditional software?
Only a day later, the seesaw changed sides again.
13 Yesterday, $SNDK Investor Day presented a new long-term financial model: The company expects revenue from FY2028 to FY2030 to maintain a mid-to-high ten-digit growth, with a non-GAAP gross profit margin of approximately 80% and an adjusted free cash flow rate of approximately 50%.
More importantly, Sandisk has signed new long-term business model agreements with eight customers, which are expected to cover approximately 50% of FY2027's bits and approximately two-thirds of FY2028's bits.
One of the things the market disliked about storage in the past was that it was too cyclical.
$XAU 💡💡💡💯💯💯 What about Dabing?
In the short term, the S&P hitting new highs shows that market risk appetite remains, and the market won't be drained to the brink. But the problem is—the US stock market rise is driven by the "AI fulfilling logic," not the "liquidity easing logic." Bitcoin won't naturally follow the rise; don't expect others to eat the meat while you drink the soup. Although the Fed's rate hike expectations have dropped from 57% to less than 40%, Treasury yields remain high, and the zero-risk interest rate suppresses risk assets, like your mom squeezing your pocket money—this has always existed. #CPI与PPI同步降温, the divide over rate hikes is widening #CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
The probability of short-term rate hikes has declined, but long-term rates have risen due to concerns over fiscal and inflation; Employment cooling and services inflation coexist, with the market oscillating between a "soft landing" and "stagflation."
Inflation: Overall decline, but the structure is not simple
- Overall cooling: July CPI year-on-year 3.4% (previous 3.5%), core CPI year-on-year 2.5% (previous 2.6%)
- Core trend is positive: The three-month annualized rate of core CPI fell to 1.6%, indicating a convergence of endogenous inflationary pressures
- Energy drag: Energy down 1.5% month-on-month, gasoline down 2.9%, both major downward moves
- Services remain sticky: medical services +0.6%, airfare +2.2%, and the resilience of service inflation remains undiminished
- Housing support: The combined rent and owner-equivalent rent drove the CPI by about 0.1 percentage points month-on-month
Employment: Significant cooling and rising recession risk
- Net decrease: Nonfarm payrolls in July were -23,000 (expected +80,000), marking the first net decrease since 2020
- Previous value revised downward: In May and June, the total was revised down by 103,000, indicating that employment momentum was previously overestimated
- Wage slowdown: Average hourly wage +0.1% month-on-month and +3.2% year-on-year, below expectations
- Unemployment rate "false" decline: unemployment rate 4.1% (previous 4.2%), mainly due to a labor force participation rate falling to 61.4%, not strong employment
- Industry contraction: Government education and retail, finance sectors have net layoffs, while healthcare additions have slowed
Market "tearing": short-term cooling down, long-term soaring
- Rate hike expectations have declined: The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose to about 68%, pricing in less than one rate hike this year (about 23 basis points)
- Long-term yield hits new high: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly broke through 5.2%, reaching its highest level since 2007
- Fiscal deficit concerns: Huge deficits and debt issuance have pushed up long-term interest rates, and the market demands higher risk compensation
- Sticky inflation and risk premium: Service inflation has not subsided, combined with upward oil price risks from geopolitical conflicts, leading to a rebound in long-term inflation expectations
- Policy uncertainty: Chairman Wash's communication style has raised doubts about his determination to fight inflation, intensifying volatility
The Fed's dilemma: fighting inflation or stabilizing employment
- Hawkish stance: Several officials emphasize that inflation is currently the biggest problem and believe that policies are not restrictive
- Disclosure of differences: Of the 12 voting committee members at the July meeting, 3 opposed holding the rate unchanged and advocated for rate hikes
- Policy focus shift: Cooling labor market and declining inflation have increased the weight of "stabilizing employment," reducing the urgency of a rate hike in September
What is the market trading?
- Soft landing path: Bad data = rate cut expectations→ falling interest rates→ which benefits growth stock valuations; AI capital spending remains strong, benefiting the technology sector
- Hard landing path: Employment continues to deteriorate→ consumption declines→ corporate earnings are declining→ putting pressure on the stock market
- Stagflation risk: Long-term interest rate increases and economic weakness coexist, which is short-term positive for gold and other safe-haven assets like $BTC $ETH $SOL [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh says directly, AMD's $4.75 billion bond issuance is not about needing money, but about locking in the "entry ticket" to AI infrastructure in advance. Other companies borrow because they can't hold on, but AMD borrows despite having $13.1 billion in cash on hand and still wants to borrow another $5 billion, aiming to settle the battles of the next few years ahead of time.
First, let's look at how solid the data is.
AMD Today, SNDK's strong bullish candlestick finally let go of the pent-up frustration.
A few days ago, when the financial report came out, I really didn't understand it—revenue was 8.97 billion, down 51% quarter-on-quarter, gross margin was 84.6%, data center business doubled, yet the stock price was still hit. At that time, I was holding my phone in one hand on the subway, my arm was sore, and I thought to myself: If I'm not satisfied with this, what exactly does the market want?
Later, I realized that people didn't complain about making money, but worried that money wouldn't be retained. Who hasn't suffered losses during storage cycles? When prices rise, everyone is a stock god; once capacity rises, profits disappear in an instant.
Today on Investor Day, I secretly watched the market in the corridor and saw eight clients sign long-term agreements covering about 50% of shipments in fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal year 2028. My heart skipped a beat. This logic seems to make sense—it's trying to break away from the old path of cyclical stocks and package itself as an AI data warehouse. From 2028 to 2030, the target is about 80% gross margin and 50% free cash flow, and all remaining cash is returned to shareholders. The market is likely willing to pay today because of this.
But long-term goals are still goals... How much will remain after NAND prices fall? We'll have to see each quarter.
But I almost cut SNDK the day before yesterday, my hand was on the mouse. Isn't that frustrating? Previously, I only focused on NVDA computing power, but now someone is finally seriously looking at storage. Sigh, how far do you think this round can go? $SNDK #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens #标普收盘再创新高, 8,000-point expectation heats up#闪迪投资者日后, long-term targets become the focus CLARITY 延期后，SEC 试图推进监管规则补位，这像是先给市场打止痛针。
行业等的是国会立法，把代币分类、交易所注册、CFTC 和 SEC 分工这些边界写死。结果法案卡住，政治分歧、银行利益、官员持币伦理都在拖。SEC 只能先出来补规则，告诉市场哪些发行、交易、托管路径可能被接受。
短期看，这是好事。项目方和机构至少不用完全摸黑。
但长期看，问题还在。监管机构的规则可以变，法院可以推翻，新主席可以重写。没有国会法律，合规就像在临时桥上开车：能过，但心里不踏实。
我觉得美国加密监管现在最贵的不是罚款，而是不确定性。严格规则至少能算账，临时规则只能猜风向。
CLARITY 不落地，真正的大钱还是会犹豫。
#CLARITY延期，SEC拟推进监管规则补位 美联储官员天天吵架，市场下一步到底在盯什么？
最近美联储内部的分歧越来越公开化，鹰派抓着通胀粘性不放，鸽派盯着就业市场的裂痕忧心忡忡。每天打开行情软件，一会儿这个理事出来放鹰，一会儿那个地方联储主席出来放鸽，大盘跟着上蹿下跳。
很多人都在问，当美联储内部吵成一锅粥的时候，市场下一步最关注的到底是经济数据、联储表态，还是市场自己的预期？
我先直接给一个我的判断，市场嘴上听着联储表态，手里算着经济数据，但真正决定资产暴击方向的，永远是「预期差的暴力修正」。
这三个东西看着独立，其实是一套环环相扣的击鼓传花游戏。
很多散户最容易陷进去的陷阱，就是去死磕联储官员的讲话。每天跟着官员的某句话去猜下个月降息还是加息，今天听沃勒讲两句就觉得要崩，明天听鲍威尔打太极又觉得牛回。
说实话，当联储官员内部出现巨大分歧的时候，说明他们原有的前瞻性指引已经彻底失效了。官员们自己都拿不准未来的经济走势，只能全部改口说自己是「数据依赖」。
这时候你再去逐字逐句解读官员表态，除了给自己增加焦虑和被假动作洗盘，没有任何意义。
官员们在看什么？在看冷冰冰的硬核经济数据，非农、核心PCE、失业率、初请失业金人数。数据是所有分歧的裁判，也是联储政策转向的底层燃料。数据如果超预期走强，鸽派就得闭嘴，数据如果断崖式下滑，鹰派也撑不住场子。
但这并不意味着你只要盯紧数据公布的那一刻就能赚到钱。
因为金融市场最神奇的地方在于，它从来不交易「当下发生了什么」，它只交易「市场之前相信了什么」。
这就是为什么很多时候非农数据明明看着还行，大盘却直接崩了，或者通胀反弹了，大盘反而逆势暴涨。
原因很简单，在数据正式落地之前，聪明的资金早就通过利率掉期、CME FedWatch 和美债收益率，把未来的剧本预演了八百遍。整个市场的情绪已经被预期拉到了极致。
一旦真实数据出来，哪怕只是偏离了市场预期 0.1%，那种过度抢跑的仓位就会瞬间发生踩踏。
所以，在美联储官员持续分歧的阶段，最具杀伤力的变量永远是市场预期的钟摆被数据狠狠打脸。
对于我们做加密资产或者风险资产交易的人来说，这种阶段最考验定力。
当宏观缺乏统一指引、各路神仙打架的时候，流动性往往会进入一种极度敏感的状态。交易所的订单簿变薄，多空双方都在等下一个重磅数据的靴子落地，这时候任何微小的预期差，都会在加密市场的高杠杆环境下被放大成千点级别的插针。
聪明的资金在这时候不会去跟风预测官员的心思，而是反过来观察市场预期的脆弱点，当大家都极度一致地押注某一个方向时，反向的预期差往往就是最肥的猎物。
---
💬 留个思考题给屏幕前的你，在目前这种降息节奏拉锯的节点，你平时做交易是更习惯盯紧每月的数据公布，还是更看重市场提前抢跑的交易情绪？评论区聊聊你的观察。
以上内容仅代表个人视角分享，不构成任何投资建议。DYOR, NFA.
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 I was secretly checking $SNDK in the hallway today, and that green candle finally let me breathe.
The earnings still confuse me. $8.97B revenue, up 51% QoQ, 84.6% gross margin, yet the stock got punished. I kept thinking, what does the market even want?
Then Investor Day made the missing piece clearer. Eight customers now have long-term agreements covering about 50% of FY27 bits and two-thirds of FY28. Management is targeting roughly 80% gross margin and 50% FCF margin for FY28–30.
That changes the story from “NAND cycle trade” to “AI storage with more visibility.”
Still, targets are targets. If NAND prices roll over, we’ll see how much of this thesis survives.
I almost sold two days ago. My finger was literally on the mouse. 😭
Now I’m curious: how far can $SNDK actually run?Both July CPI and PPI were moderately implemented, and inflationary pressures did not disturb market sentiment. U.S. stocks remained strong, with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high, the Nasdaq up about 0.8%, AI hardware sectors showing active performance, and stocks like MU and SNDK rising in tandem.
However, Bitcoin still hovered within a narrow range of $62,000 to $66,000, with both trading volume and volatility declining, and the market remained dull as usual.
This indicates that the current suppressive factor is no longer macro but dominated by internal stock competition within the crypto community.
ETF funds are indeed continuously flowing in with net inflows, indicating institutional allocation willingness. However, at the same time, miner selling pressure, corporate portfolio adjustments, and the release of trapped positions above are also continuously providing selling pressure.
Buying power and selling pressure offset each other; some buy but no one pulls in, so prices can only be worn down within a range.
The market is not short of funds; what it lacks is the combined force to break the deadlock. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens with expectations rising to #标普收盘再创新高.8,000 points Meanwhile, the odds of a September Fed rate cut have pushed above 60%, and the market is already pricing it in. The direction will reveal itself sooner or later. Until then, watch what the whales are doing — not what fear is saying. $BTC $ETH #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets $OKB 🔥 PPI COOLED — BUT IS THAT REALLY A GREEN LIGHT FOR CRYPTO?
July U.S. PPI came in at 4.7% YoY, below the 4.9% forecast, while monthly PPI was flat.
That’s a welcome signal for markets, but there’s an important distinction:
Lower inflation pressure is supportive. It isn’t automatically bullish price action.
The next reaction matters more than the headline.
👀 Watch the 10Y Treasury yield for confirmation that rate expectations are actually easing.
💵 Watch the U.S. dollar for signs that financial conditions are becoming less restrictive.
₿ Most importantly, watch $BTC.
Can Bitcoin defend its current range?
Can buyers push through resistance?
Does volume expand with the move?
If those pieces align, the softer PPI print could become a genuine catalyst.
If they don’t, today’s reaction may simply be another temporary relief bounce inside a broader range.
📌 Macro sets the backdrop. Liquidity provides the fuel. Price action delivers the verdict.
No need to chase the headline.
Let the market prove the trade first. 👀
#DailyOrbit #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets $SPCX rebounded from a low of $104 and broke through the $135 issue price within just a few days, currently caught between AI revaluation expectations and the upcoming massive unlock.
On the board, after recovering the IPO offering price, a new turnover zone formed between $135 and $150, accompanied by localized expansion in trading volume.
Signs of cooling macro-level inflation have improved overall market risk appetite, with funds beginning to concentrate on assets with AI infrastructure narratives, and chip factory plans attracting replenishment from previously vacant positions.
This AI-driven valuation reconstruction directly collides with the potential unlocking pressure of 320 million shares approaching on August 20, and the locked-in status of tokens will determine the sustainability of the rebound.
If the price breaks above $150 with increased volume and holds steady, it indicates that buying pressure can absorb the unlocked selling pressure, and upside potential could extend above $160; If it falls below $135, this path will fail.
If risk aversion intensifies on the eve of the unlock, leading to early profit-taking, the price may pull back to the $135 to $140 area to find support; If it breaks below the previous low of $104, it would indicate a downtrend is confirmed.
There are differing expectations in the market regarding the asset's transition from aerospace to AI computing power. If internal shareholders concentrate their holdings after the lock-up is lifted on August 20, the current valuation restructuring logic will be disproven by the market.
The most important variable to watch in the coming week is the actual volume of block trades on the first day of the unlock, August 20, and the performance of the price at the key support level of $135.
#CLARITY表决待定, #加密估值转向收入 SEC rules have not been implemented, how should BTC be priced?ICYMI: $BTC futures OI has climbed past a full day of futures volume, just shy of last September's record.
Plenty of positions, thin turnover. On a tape this thin, liquidations meet little resistance in either direction.⚡ An outrageous market trend! Multiple macro positive factors converging, why is Bitcoin and Ethereum completely unaffected?
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温, the divergence over rate hikes has widened
Who can understand the current strange market landscape! Inflation data continues to weaken, crude oil prices begin to pull back, US stocks keep hitting record highs, and the external environment is constantly warming up, yet BTC and ETH remain lifeless, unable to mount a decent rebound.
This is no longer just a simple "good news is gone"; the current situation is even harsher: at this stage, no matter what positive news the crypto market receives, it cannot sustain upward momentum.
Looking back at the latest inflation data, July CPI fell to 3.4%, and core CPI fell to 2.5%; PPI was flat month-on-month, and year-on-year data was also below market expectations. According to traditional trading logic, continued cooling inflation weakens the Fed's motivation to continue raising rates, so all risk assets should attract capital and emerge from a recovery rally.
But reality is quite the opposite. BTC tried to break through the 64,000 mark but quickly came under pressure and retreated; ETH repeatedly attempted to break through the 1,900 level but was unable to hold steady. Looking at global markets, US stocks surged to new highs, while gold remained stable in a high range; Only the crypto market showed weakness, with signals everywhere indicating funds were exiting during the rebound.
Many traders on overseas social platforms lamented that CPI and PPI have both weakened for two consecutive days, and BTC's volatility has nearly dried up. Macro data has fulfilled its mission, but new purchasing power in the market has yet to materialize.
CryptoQuant's data also confirms the market downturn: spot trading activity continues to decline, Coinbase maintains a negative premium for a long time, overseas institutional investors are less willing to enter the market, and the scale of BTC ETF inflows has cooled significantly.
The market situation is clear: the market is heavily leveraged long, while spot funds are severely scarce. Whenever good news arrives, it instead becomes an opportunity for the bulls to close their positions. A classic "buy expectations, sell facts" rally. The market has long digested the positive effects brought by cooling inflation, with layers of selling pressure above like mountains hard to break through.
Opinions within the Fed remain divided, with officials divided—some advocate continued rate hikes to curb inflation, while others believe current rates are sufficient. Interest rate futures began trading on expectations of future rate cuts, while Treasury yields fell in tandem.
Unfortunately, BTC cannot currently enjoy macro dividends. The core constraint is no longer Fed policy, but the liquidity depletion of the crypto market itself. Many short-term holders have high costs; even a slight price rebound triggers selling pressure. Even if ETF funds briefly flow in, they are quickly absorbed by selling pressure.
Many veteran players are immersed in past experience, confident that once the rate-cutting cycle begins, cryptocurrencies will inevitably see a major rally. However, it is necessary to recognize the hidden risks now: inflation in the service sector is sticky, and energy prices face the risk of rebounds at any time. The geopolitical situation is full of uncertainties, and next month's economic data could easily reverse current optimism.
The most painful moments in trading are never sudden drops. It's that positive news keeps coming in from outside, while your holdings remain sideways and stagnant.
Simply focusing on various macro reports is of little significance. Currently, the market is very clear, with funds generally holding onto the sidelines. Whenever there is a rebound, it is sold off, with no sign of active buying or survival.
To confirm a trend reversal, several core signals must be observed: large spot buying returning, exchange premiums turning positive from negative to positive, and ETFs maintaining sustained net capital inflows.
If these signals are delayed and inflation cooling will only temporarily support prices, the market will still fall into a prolonged grinding phase.
However, one point worth noting: often, the true market bottom is born amid these dull and tormenting volatile market conditions.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate divergences widen by #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate differences widen by #CPI与PPI同步降温, and rate differentials widen by $BTC $ETH $OKB Gold relies on safe-haven risk, AI on risk, BTC caught in the middle: Why hasn't digital gold been bought this time?
The most embarrassing thing today wasn't $BTC falling back to 62,800, but that neither of the two types of money in the market had reached it.
Safe-haven funds are in gold, $XAU still above 4340;
Daring money is in AI, which surged from 1332 to around 1590 during $SNDK session;
$BTC dropped nearly 1%, $ETH near 1875, and still hasn't recovered 1900.
BTC used to be called "digital gold." Logically, with inflation, geopolitical issues, and unstable monetary credit, someone should be buying BTC.
But this time it didn't.
Because when funds are hedging risks, certainty is what they need. Gold doesn't need to wait for liquidity to improve, nor to explain why it should rise today.
When funds chase risk, what matters is performance. SNDK has long-term orders, profit margin targets, and buyback expectations; the story can be directly converted into valuation.
BTC only got a cooling CPI and PPI. This is one less negative factor, not one more buying opportunity.
So don't assume that just because gold and AI are strong, crypto will catch up. BTC first rebounded to 63,000, then reclaimed 64,000; ETH reclaimed 1900, which is considered capital willing to price high betas.
BTC is not without a story.
But this time, it ranks behind liquidity.
$BTC $SNDK #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens, with expectations for #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points heating up 🔸The World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Prints a Record Profit of US$185 Billion in H1 2026, Even though the First Quarter was Minus.
Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), officially reported a return of 9.4% for the first half of 2026, 0.22 percentage points ahead of its benchmark, with an accounting return of US$185 billion, the best half-semester krone return in the fund's history.
The fund's total assets now reached US$2.39 trillion, driven by equity returns of 13.0%. According to NBIM CEO Nicolai Tangen, this result was driven by strong performance in the stock market, especially Asian technology stocks.
What makes this story even more interesting: this performance comes only one quarter after Q1 2026 is actually minus 1.9%.
This means that if broken down from these two official figures, the second quarter alone scored a return of around 11% more just to reverse the losses of the beginning of the year and set a record.
⚠️ What to note:
Although the headline is record-breaking, the NBIM report itself includes a stress test that highlights significant exposure to future macro and climate shocks, meaning that fund management itself does not consider this rally to be a guarantee of a trend that will continue smoothly.
The V-shape pattern from minus in Q1 to a record in Q2 is also a reminder of how volatile the market has been this year.
🔸What Is the Impact on the Crypto Market?
NBIM has historically had no direct exposure to crypto, but the fund's performance is a clear reflection of the risk appetite of global institutional investors.
When even the most conservative sovereign wealth funds score double-digit returns from tech stocks in one quarter, it's a strong signal that global capital is risk-on mode historically a tailwind for high-risk assets, including crypto, as long as the rally of tech stocks does not reverse.Without trading volume and liquidity, a Bitcoin bull market cannot come
Recently, I heard someone say this conclusion, and in fact, it's a typical misconception
As shown in the chart, at the end of December 2022, before the Bitcoin bull market started, trading volume showed no expansion; in fact, it gradually declined, nearly stagnant, but the bull market still started suddenly, followed by volume growth
Trading volume is the result of price increases, not the cause
The real bottom is no volume, stagnant water, and selling pressure drying up—that's the root of the bottom
There's another common misconception: when trading volume is low, even a little selling pressure can break through, meaning a sharp drop is coming
Why can't a small amount of buying quickly push the price up?
So in a bear market, many people only think about the price drop, and whenever they see a signal, they force it to fall
In an extremely dull market, exhausted selling pressure means all is sold and leverage is cleared; a small drop won't trigger a chain of liquidations
So, don't assume the market won't rise just because there's no trading volume in a sluggish state, nor interrupt your dollar-cost averaging plan. Buy when it's time to buy
As always, every bull market starts suddenly from despair, giving you no chance to reactCurrently, around ETH 1875~1877 and BTC 62870, the biggest change isn't how much the price has dropped, but BTC is starting to clearly drag ETH: BTC 1H and 4H have re-entered a weak structure, while ETH, though relatively resilient, has fallen back below 1900. Today, the market is indeed in a repricing phase following macro data and derivatives events; Recent data shows that US CPI in July was about 3.4% year-on-year, but BTC did not continue to rise due to weaker inflation, indicating the current market leans toward "positive news without rallying." Additionally, a large BTC/ETH option expiration is expected today. The biggest pain point for bulls is around BTC 64,000 and ETH 1,900, with current prices already below these levels, and short-term volatility may continue to amplify.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened Last time during SanDisk's financial report, we even streamed it all night to watch it
At that time, I had a question: SanDisk's financial report was clearly good, so why did it actually drop?
SanDisk's August 5th financial report was actually very strong, but it still fell nearly 8% after hours.
This is mainly because some data institutions have higher expectations for profit guidance
The market's real concern is whether NAND prices and profit margins have already peaked
However, at yesterday's investor conference, management directly addressed this core concern
Adjusted gross margin is expected to remain around 80%, and adjusted operating margin is expected to be around 75%.
Adjusted free cash flow rate of approximately 50% plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders
This profit margin and cash flow target clearly exceeds the valuation framework of traditional cyclical storage companies
The market has begun repricing SanDisk from a "cyclical stock" to a "high-profit AI infrastructure platform."
Additionally, SanDisk has signed new long-term business agreements with eight customers
Covering about 50% of FY2027 production and about two-thirds of FY2028 production
The macro side is the booster, not the main cause. It's still what we said yesterday when we talked about gold
Whether it's this month's nonfarm payrolls, CPI, or last night's PPI, all are positive data
Although most of the decline in PPI data was due to lower energy inflation (oil prices).
Service sector inflation persists, but it has also partially eased market concerns about further Fed rate hikes
Currently, the market bears account for over 70%. Bears are clearly crowded. Wait for a pullback to go long! #闪迪投资者日后, long-term targets become the focus $SNDK Ship Transit on Hormuz Begins to Recover from Lowest Point But Still Far From Normal.
Hormuz's average daily outbound transit (7-day MA) had plummeted to a low of 3.6 million barrels/day in early August, then rebounded to 6.3 million barrels/day as of August 11 but this is still less than half the level at the end of July (12.6 million barrels/day).
As of August 12 (August 13 not yet available), its official status is still "effectively closed" for commercial shipping: only 8 ships transited on August 8, compared to the normal ~73/day, with Brent holding at US$89.12.
This partial recovery is not because the crisis has subsided, but because ships are starting to find a detour: "shadow fleet" tankers switched to compliant lines (10 tankers last week vs 6 previously), and most significantly ship to ship transfers OUTSIDE Hormuz, with 12 exchanges detected satellites in just one day (August 10) along the Oman-UAE coast.
Trump announced a new round of negotiations, but Tehran immediately denied it; Iran's top security officials insisted the reopening of the strait conditional on the U.S. accepting their extensive demands.
The real economic impact is already measurable: global container volumes of 1.8-2 million TEU were lost in H1 2026 due to this disruption, regional imports fell 21%, exports fell 31%.
🔸What Is the Impact on the Crypto Market?
This update reinforces the thesis we have repeatedly discussed: this crisis is still ongoing without a real diplomatic resolution.
As long as Hormuz is not completely safe, the risk premium in energy prices remains high, and that continues to be one of the reasons why central banks find it difficult to dovish structural headwind for risk assets, including crypto, that are unlikely to disappear anytime soon.
#HormuzPressureRises SOL as a whole is still stuck in a narrow range. 75 is the near-term support that must be held today; if it falls below it again, look for 74; To move upward, you need to first recover 76, then break through 77, and only after holding above 77 can we discuss around 78. Today, no news about independent projects capable of changing SOL's pricing has been found; on-chain minting, protocol planning, and old upgrade narratives cannot be directly equated with new buying interest. Before BTC's direction is clear, SOL is better suited as a market elasticity indicator rather than a preemptive news coin.明天解锁的不只是筹码，还有那些等了很久的耐心。 你有没有想过，一个横盘很久的币，可能根本不是没人要，而是所有人都在等同一个时间点？ $LAB 明天的解锁，大概是这周最值得盯的单一事件了。不是因为它会暴涨，而是它像一面镜子，照出这波行情里到底还有多少真实的承接力。 先看清楚现在的位置。$LAB 已经在窄幅区间里磨了好几周，交投清淡，关注度低，几乎没有自己的叙事在推动。这种安静，放在解锁前夜，反而比热闹更值得琢磨。因为解锁意味着流通供给增加，而价格还没提前定价，那明天的盘面就是一次供需的裸考。 之前 $BEAT 已经演示过一次，信心一旦松动，盘口能薄到什么程度。那种瞬间抽走流动性的感觉，不是下跌本身，而是你想卖的时候没有接盘的人。这才是解锁最危险的地方——不是抛压，是抛压来了之后，下面根本没有垫子。 $BICO 如果市场关注度继续降温，也可能陷入类似的脆弱状态。它不是基本面出了问题，而是无人问津的时候，任何一点卖压都会被放大。 另一边，$ALLO 的相对强度倒是值得注意，说明还有资金愿意在板块里挑票。$APR 则仍然处于极度敏感的状态，消息一碰就动，但这种行情里追涨杀跌，往往是为别人抬轿子OKB has gone up these past couple of days.
The price climbed up from around $90, surging above $104, with an intraday gain of over 9%. That bullish candlestick on the candlestick chart was quite eye-catching, breaking the previous stalemate around $86. Sometimes the market is like this: you focus on macro data and other directions, but it moves first in the corner.
This rally has a clever twist. Looking at on-chain data, the $70 to $85 segment was full of trapped positions. Previously, the price repeatedly lingered below $90, as if deliberately shaking off the baggage. When volume really surged and it broke through $100, there was little resistance above $120—selling pressure was light, pushing was effortless. Capital picking this point to act should have been well planned.
On the news front, OKX just issued an announcement: token burn will be done all at once on August 15, contract upgrade on August 18, and from now on, both issuance and burn functions will be removed. With a total of 21 million tokens locked and regular burning, the deflationary story is a solid truth in today's market.
The next scenario goes roughly: take advantage of this wave of positive news, first take advantage of the historical trapped market, then probe the vacuum zone between $120 and even $170 to $190. Of course, the premise is that the market doesn't drop the ball. Platform coins have always been the face of exchanges, and this rally at least shows they have some confidence $OKB SanDisk's pre-market surge finally caught the market in the following logic:
What the AI era truly lacks may not be GPUs, but storage
Tonight, SNDK surged sharply before the market opened, and many people's first reaction was:
"Is there another piece of news to stir things up?"
But this time, the core of market trading is not a simple positive factor, but rather a shift in investment logic.
First, the market regained recognition of AI storage demand.
In recent months, the biggest controversy among storage stocks is:
The demand for AI computing power is strong, but can storage continue to benefit?
SanDisk's recent long-term plans have changed the market's perspective.
The company expects revenue to maintain mid-to-high single-digit to teen-point growth over the next few years, while maintaining very high profit levels.
This means the market is starting to think:
SanDisk may no longer be just a traditional cycle storage company, but could become part of AI infrastructure.
Second, institutions have begun to re-value the storage industry.
Previously, SanDisk's stock price experienced significant fluctuations due to market concerns over the storage cycle peaking.
However, as demand for AI data centers continues to grow, investors are refocusing on the long-term value of NAND, enterprise-grade SSDs, and high-performance storage.
In short:
Previously, the market focused on SanDisk for storage cycles.
Now the market is starting to look at SanDisk, focusing on the AI data growth cycle.
These two valuation logics are completely different.
Third, funds are flowing back into AI hardware.
Recently, overall sentiment in the US tech sector has improved, AI-related stocks have regained capital's attention, and SanDisk, Nvidia's supply chain, and memory chip companies have all strengthened.
This indicates that the market is re-trading a viewpoint:
AI doesn't just require GPUs; it also requires a large amount of storage.
Without storage expansion, AI data centers cannot continue to expand.
However, it is important to note.
After the rise, SanDisk's valuation has become quite high.
What determines whether it can continue to rise in the future is not market sentiment, but three key factors:
First, whether AI storage demand will continue to grow.
Second, whether storage prices remain strong.
Third, can the company's profit margin be realized?
So tonight's rise in SanDisk is essentially not an ordinary rebound.
Instead, the market is repricing:
SanDisk is ultimately a cyclical stock.
And it's still an infrastructure company for the AI era.
This is the logic behind the real rise in stock prices. $SNDK #闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus On August 14, the storage sector experienced a textbook-level long-short flip-flopping. According to the latest monitoring by TradingBeats, several prominent packages in the storage sector—MU (Micron), SNDK (SanDisk), SKHX, and SKHY—have collectively surged. Especially SNDK's 18.7% gain, with a total turnover of $1.652 billion, tells us that this is no small feat—big money is risking everything.
The most dramatic part of this rebound was undoubtedly the tearful rebound of the four representative short sellers.
You have to understand, in traders' logic, short covering is often not because they are optimistic about the market, but because of pain. When the price breaks through their psychological defenses, to preserve the remaining principal, they must buy chips in the market to close out short positions. This $15.419 million buy is, frankly, liquidity contributed by bears in desperation.
The $1.598 million loss was the tuition they paid for the mistaken judgment that the rebound in the storage sector was dead. The most ironic thing is that it was precisely because these bears rushed to stop losses and buy, pushing the price even higher, forcibly pushing the rebound to the bulls' take-profit zone.
If the bears' actions are forced to operate, then the actions of "smart money" 0x0ad are cold exits.
Monitoring shows that this veteran hunter has already cleared all long positions in SNDK, SKHX, and KIOXIA. Please note, it is "clearing," not "reducing positions."🔸Market Highlights: PPI & Jobless Claims US (July)
🔸The July PPI (MoM) was recorded (0.0%), below the consensus (0.2%) but up slightly from (-0.1%) in the previous month, indicating that inflationary pressures from the producer side are still relatively restrained.
🔸Initial Jobless Claims rose to 209K, above the 202K consensus and also up from the previous week's 200K, signaling the beginning of weakness in the U.S. labor market despite historically low levels.
🔸The Impact on the Crypto Market?
As the PPI missed expectations and jobless claims rose above consensus, this release brought a disinflationary signal from the producer side as well as an early sign of a weakening of the workforce, a combination that is likely to ease the Fed's hawkish pressure a bit.
This has the potential to maintain near-term risk-on sentiment for $BTC and crypto, although the market is likely to remain awaiting confirmation from the next labor data, and the risk of rising oil prices due to the disruption in Hormuz remains a threat that could reverse this disinflationary narrative.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #AMDLargestBondDeal Quá đỉnh? Không, đây đúng là kịch bản tôi từng dính và đã nhận ra. $APR chỉ trong một đêm nhảy từ 0.2 lên 0.63, gấp ba lần — mức tăng khiến người ta dễ phấn khích, nhưng với ai từng ở trong game, nó quen đến lạ. Đợt bùng nổ này rất có thể do dòng vốn hợp đồng thao túng. Khối lượng vị thế tăng vọt lên 25,45 triệu USD, dòng tiền ròng hơn 4,8 triệu — rõ ràng có người đang dùng chi phí thấp để kích sóng. Với coin vốn hóa nhỏ, chỉ cần một câu chuyện mới, vài triệu USD cũng đủ tạo hiệu ứng. Không có gMajor US banks have all gone on-chain—is your wallet ready to pick up newcomers?
Wells Fargo announced it will launch tokenized deposits this fall, starting with cross-border settlement between USD and GBP. Plus, JPMorgan Chase and Citibank have been doing this for a long time, so the leading US commercial banks have basically entered the market collectively.
Meanwhile, last week Bitcoin ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $853 million, Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive weeks, and BlackRock alone took 80%+ of the flow. Institutions are allocated as planned during sluggish trading volume, not by retail investors.
This means a large number of users coming from traditional finance will soon be exposed to on-chain asset management for the first time.
Here's the problem—these people are used to the "click confirm" banking experience, not copying mnemonic phrases, selecting chains, or calculating gas.
I think the core competitiveness of the wallet sector going forward is the entry barrier. Whoever can make beginners feel uneasy on their first try wins.$OKB One target I'm watching: the market may not have fully repriced it yet
Recently, $OKB has been watching, with its price repeatedly fluctuating around $100.
The more I research, the more I feel that its current valuation may have some gap in expectations.
Why do you see it this way?
First, the logic on the supply side has changed.
OKB is no longer a traditional exchange platform token. After a large-scale burn, the total supply of OKB was fixed at 21 million, completely locking in the pressure on new supply.
This logic is somewhat similar to the scarcity asset model:
Limited chips + unaddable supply—there may be room for value revaluation before the market recognizes it.
Second, demand is shifting.
In the past, many people understood OKB as a "trading fee discount tool," but now it is taking on more on-chain roles.
As the X Layer ecosystem develops, OKB has become the network's native gas token and an important component of the Exchange OS ecosystem. If more markets deploy based on this system in the future, OKB's practical use cases may further expand.
In short:
The supply side is becoming increasingly scarce,
The demand side is seeking new growth curves.
If both directions are realized simultaneously, the valuation given by the market may change.
Why start laying out now?
After retreating from the all-time high near $258, the correction has become very significant, and market sentiment remains cautious.
Of course, I wouldn't choose a one-time heavy position.
Currently, we are only establishing observation positions. Going forward, we will focus on the progress of Exchange OS implementation and whether the X Layer ecosystem data can continue to grow, before deciding whether to further increase positions.
Risks must also be considered:
The scale of X Layer's current ecosystem still needs time to be verified; ultimately, the narrative relies on real users, capital, and application data to support it.
So my approach is simple:
Use small positions to position in advance in a potentially undervalued direction,
Waiting for the market to provide an answer.
⚠️ The above are only personal trading records and market views, and do not constitute investment advice.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Many people judge the importance of chains based on DeFi TVL rankings—
By this standard, Tron barely ranks (TVL is only ~$4.8 billion).
But if you look at stablecoin volume, Tron ranks second globally:
• Tron: $92.5 billion
• Solana: $15.5 billion
• Base: $5 billion
Stablecoins are 19 times TVL. The money is on-chain, but not in the protocol—transfers, settlements, withdrawals, and then leaves.
Comparison:
• Ethereum: stablecoin/TVL = 3.6x
• Solana：3.2x
• Base: 1.1x (money goes into DeFi)
Base is the DeFi chain, Tron is the settlement chain. The two metrics measure different things.
Another detail: in the past 7 days, Tron stablecoin +$750 million, Ethereum -$590 million, Solana -$170 million. Fear index 29, but U didn't run from Tron—indicating this funding is rigid demand, not for DeFi speculation.
97.9% of the ETH on Tron is USDT, almost a single-asset chain. A main thread of global USDT circulation
Don't just look at TVL when evaluating chains; at least add one thing: stablecoin volume.
Looking at both dimensions together, the conclusions are completely different.
$TRX #tron