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With both CPI and PPI cooling down, the knife the Fed fears most is slowly being withdrawn
After several consecutive months of inflationary pressure, it has finally started to ease
The latest U.S. data shows that the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell year-on-year from 5.5% to 4.7% in July, while core PPI fell from 4.7% to 4.2%, overall below market expectations. Meanwhile, July CPI fell from 3.5% year-on-year to 3.4%, and core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%. Price pressures on both production and consumption sides eased simultaneously, indicating that the risk of inflation rebound that previously troubled the Fed is now cooling marginally
But what truly matters this time is not the simple phrase "inflation falls, favorable for rate cuts."
Because the Fed is no longer facing a single inflation issue, but a game of economic balance.
In the past, the market had worried that if energy prices, tariff impacts, and supply chain pressures pushed inflation up again, the Fed might reconsider raising interest rates. But the July data signals that cost pressures on the business side are easing, commodity price increases are slowing, and inflation is gradually returning to controllable ranges.
More importantly, there have recently been signs of cooling in the U.S. job market.
Previously released July nonfarm payroll data was weaker than expected, with new jobs showing negative growth, further diversifying policy pressures within the Fed. On one hand, inflation remains above the 2% target and caution is needed; On the other hand, the labor market is beginning to signal weakness, and excessively high interest rates may further drag down the economy.
This is also why the market's judgment on the policy path in September has begun to shift.
However, I believe it cannot yet be simply understood as "the Fed is about to enter a rate-cutting cycle."
The reason is simple: a drop in inflation does not mean the problem has been solved.
Currently, core inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, and price pressures on service sector prices, housing costs, and some sectors persist. Moreover, the international energy market remains uncertain; if oil prices rise again, inflation data may fluctuate in the coming months.
So the real focus in September may no longer be "whether there will be a rate hike," but rather the Fed's internal shift in risk prioritization.
Previously, hawkish officials emphasized that policy should not shift too early until inflation fully subsides; while other officials believe that current interest rate levels are already sufficient to limit economic activity and that employment pressure needs to be watched.
This divergence essentially represents the Fed moving from the "inflation control" phase to a phase of "seeking a policy balance."
From an asset perspective, the impact of this data is also quite obvious.
Short-term pressure on the US dollar has increased, expectations of a decline in bond yields have emerged, gold has found support, and risk assets are trading again in the possibility of improved liquidity. Recently, US stocks have strengthened driven by cooling data, reflecting that funds are reassessing the future interest rate path.
The same logic applies to the crypto market.
Over the past year, BTC's performance has been largely influenced by dollar liquidity and interest rate expectations. If inflation continues to decline in the future, the Fed's policy shifts from a high-pressure stance to easing expectations, and risk appetite for funds may further recover.
But one thing to note here:
The most common mistake the market makes is trading in advance for a future that is already set.
This is not the strong stimulus environment seen in 2008 after rapid economic deterioration, but rather a new balance sought against the backdrop of high interest rates, high debt, and inflation not yet fully returning to target.
My view is that before the September meeting, the real direction will not be determined by just one CPI or PPI, but by a combination of employment data, core inflation, and Fed officials' speeches.
If inflation continues to decline slowly and employment keeps weakening, the probability of a policy shift will keep increasing; But if energy or service prices rebound again, the Fed may remain hawkish.
The biggest change in this round of market activity is not the "arrival of interest rate cuts," but that the market has started trading policy turning points earlier.
And real big opportunities often don't appear when everyone has confirmed them, but when expectations start to change but the direction hasn't fully taken shape.
In the coming months, the US dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and BTC will all price in more intense pricing around this policy game.
$DOS $OKB $GRVT
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened $EDEN 78% gain in the day, what should you do if it surges and then pulls back?
This week, speculative coins were flying everywhere. EDEN's rally was clearly a capital speculation to trap retail investors chasing highs
Looking at the daily chart, there was also a wave of rally and sell-offs before, but it was before the unlock, then immediately started to plummet and unload. Now, after the bottom of the Gouzheng market has been consolidating for a while, it has started to rally again, because tokens will be unlocked tomorrow. The new circulating shares could become a source of selling pressure afterward. Combined with the RWA narrative, the stock surged 78% in just 24 hours. Gouzhuang is playing the old trick again, with only retail investors still chasing the rally
Personal trading advice: Today it surged to 0.08686 and then immediately pulled back, indicating considerable resistance above. Plus, on-chain addresses have been selling off, and after transferring in, they are moving back into exchanges. So at the current 0.063 level, you can take a light short position, targeting around 0.051#闪迪投资者日后, long-term targets become the focus, #CPI与PPI同步降温 rate hike divergence widens and expectations for #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points heat up
After the CPI was released, all US stocks closed higher overnight, with the S&P set a new all-time high, but the market was extremely structurally differentiated, not a broad rally.
🔥 Today's strongest main theme in US stocks: Memory chip sector (leading the gains throughout the session)
SanDisk: Surged 13.67%, sector leader, capital mainly targets
Western Digital $WDC, $SK Hynix ADR: up around 7%.
Micron $MU and Seagate $STX: Strengthened in tandem
Logic: AI servers and large model inference are driving a recovery in demand expectations for large-capacity storage, with expectations of a reversal at the cycle bottom heating up.
🚗 Strong internal targets among the seven tech giants
Tesla $TSLA: +3.8%, the biggest gainer among the seven giants
Meta($META)：+2.78%
Apple $AAPL: +1%
Microsoft $MSFT: +0.9%
Nvidia $NVDA closed slightly higher, with weaker momentum; Amazon $AMAZON bucked the trend and closed lower.
🖥️ Other strong AI semiconductor stocks
Intel $INTC +3.58%
$AMD, $ARM, and Mywell MRVL fluctuated upward
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed higher overall, and the computing hardware chain continued to attract capital attention.
❌ Clearly weak direction (try to avoid it)
Optical Communications / Optical Modules Collectively Pull Back: Lumentum, Corning, Coherent Sharply Weakened;
Most Chinese concept stocks came under pressure, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index closing lower;
Some high-end AI computing power leasing targets have seen profit-taking realization.
A brief summary of the collaboration with the crypto community
U.S. stock funds prefer storage chips and AI hardware, which theoretically catalyzes sentiment in the crypto storage sector ($FIL, $STORJ).
But it's important to distinguish:
US stock storage projects are expected to reverse; Crypto storage projects themselves face heavy fundamental bearish pressure, driven solely by sentiment, making it difficult to achieve a synchronized rally. Currently, crypto funds still prioritize grouping around main themes like $OKB and $GRVT. 🚨 ONE OF THE WORST TRADES OF THE WEEK?
A whale closed large $SKHX and $SNDK long positions just before both stocks exploded higher.
The trader exited around:
• 2,908 $SKHX at ~$1,022.9
• 2,324 $SNDK at ~$1,278
Total position value was roughly $5.95M, locking in about $186K profit.
Then the market ripped higher.
$SNDK surged 17.6% intraday to $1,580.88, while $SKHX gained 7.29%. Had the positions been held to the highs, the profit could have reached around $1.39M — roughly $1.2M more than what was realized.
And it gets more interesting: after closing the longs, the whale opened a 10x short on $SNDK around $1,553.
Meanwhile, the bullish story remains strong.
RBC raised its $SNDK target from $1,300 to $1,600, while SK Hynix leadership warned that the storage shortage could become even more severe next year as AI demand continues accelerating.
📊 Technically, $SNDK is approaching resistance around $1,580 and RSI is overbought.
Fundamentally, however, SanDisk is targeting 15–19% annual revenue growth, ~80% gross margin and ~50% FCF margin for FY2028–2030, supported by long-term NBM contracts.
So the setup is simple:
📉 Short thesis: overbought + resistance
📈 Long thesis: improving fundamentals + AI-driven storage demand
Now the big question is whether the whale’s short can survive if the momentum continues.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets Everyone, regarding the USD/RMB return to 7, let me briefly say a few words.
I think at least several conditions need to appear simultaneously; none of them alone is enough.
First, the Fed should raise rates again, or at least rebuild the market's expectation that "high interest rates will persist longer." Ideally, an additional 25 to 50 basis points would raise dollar asset yields again, allowing the dollar index to move.
Second, China continues to cut interest rates and reserve requirements, further easing monetary policy. With both sides pulling back, the China-US interest rate gap widens again, naturally reducing the attractiveness of RMB assets.
Third, the Chinese economy is experiencing more obvious pressure. Real estate continues to deteriorate, domestic demand is weak, corporate profits are declining, or foreign capital is reducing its allocation to Chinese assets. A strong dollar alone is not enough; the RMB itself must also face depreciation pressure.
Fourth, the trade surplus is beginning to narrow. If Hormuz is blocked for a long time, oil and gas prices and shipping costs will remain high, and China, as a major energy importer, will have to spend more dollars on energy. As import costs rise, the trade surplus is squeezed, naturally weakening support for the RMB.
Fifth, the market is renewing demand for the US dollar. Enterprises reduce foreign exchange settlements and increase US dollar deposits, while residents and institutions increase their overseas asset allocation, while foreign capital reduces or even outflows of RMB assets.
So my understanding of the USD/RMB returning to 7 is not simply betting on a rise in the dollar, but a simultaneous rise of both forces—the dollar strengthening again, the RMB weakening again. Only when these two forces act together does the 7 level truly become easy to reach $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Of course, these are logical deductions, not predictions. What do you all think about the upcoming exchange rate direction? Let's discuss in the comments. Wishing everyone smooth trading.GOOD INFLATION DATA, BUT BTC & ETH AREN’T REACTING — HERE’S WHY 👀
Inflation is showing signs of cooling, yet crypto is still struggling to gain momentum.
$BTC is around $64,100, with buyers repeatedly failing to push through the $65,000 resistance.
$ETH is near $1,920, but the $2,000 zone continues to act as a major hurdle.
The reason? Markets move on expectations vs. reality, not headlines alone.
A softer inflation backdrop can support easier Fed expectations, but if traders positioned for that outcome beforehand, the actual data can trigger profit-taking instead of fresh buying.
Meanwhile, ETF flows, bond yields and broader risk sentiment remain key signals for the next move.
So I’m watching volume, ETF flows and breakout confirmation rather than chasing the headline.
Good macro news ≠ automatic upside.
Sometimes the market needs a catalyst after the good news is already priced in.
Personal market view, not financial advice.
#BTC #ETH #CPI #Fed #CryptoMarketWhy I’m Watching $OKB Around $100
Lately, I’ve been watching $OKB closely as it moves around the $100 level, and honestly, I think the market may still be underestimating its long-term setup.
The biggest thing that caught my attention is supply. $OKB now has a permanently capped supply of 21 million tokens. Last year’s one-time burn removed more than 65 million OKB, permanently reducing the available supply.
But the more interesting part for me is the demand side. $OKB is evolving beyond being just an exchange platform token. It plays a role as gas for X Layer and as a staking requirement within the Exchange OS deployment ecosystem. If adoption grows, more OKB could potentially be locked as new markets and deployments come online.
That creates an interesting setup: tighter supply + potentially increasing utility-driven demand.
After falling roughly 69% from its $258 all-time high, sentiment around the token remains cautious. That’s exactly why I’m not trying to go all-in here. I’m starting with a small position and plan to reassess based on the Q3 rollout and, more importantly, whether the actual usage data starts validating the narrative.
The risk is still obvious: X Layer’s current TVL remains relatively small, so the thesis needs real adoption, not just a good story.
For now, I’m simply taking a small position and betting on one possibility: the market may not have fully priced in what $OKB could become if its ecosystem demand actually materializes.
Not financial advice. Just my personal thesis and risk-managed approach.
#SandiskLongTermTargets #TrumpTruthAPILawsuit $MRVL Goldman Sachs just released a research report last night raising its target price, citing the continued surge in demand for AI custom chips and the Q2 earnings report coming out on August 27, so the market is betting early. MRVL has pulled back 35% from its high of $329 this time, and is now clearly looking for support at a low level. Today's bullish candlestick signals a stop to decline.
In the short term, the $215-220 range is a strong support platform; if broken, I recommend caution; The $235-240 above is the first resistance; to break through, the earnings report will exceed expectations.
Valuation-wise, the PE ratio is still relatively high (76 times), but the story of customized chips is not yet complete; after adjustment, the flexibility will be significant.
Both stocks today belong to the "AI chip sector sentiment is warming up," but it's best not to chase the highs—wait for a pullback or after the earnings report is released 🎯
#美股 #美光科技 #迈威尔 #AI芯片 #半导体🚨 RIOT IS TURNING BITCOIN MINING INFRASTRUCTURE INTO AI POWER. 👀
Riot reportedly sold around 4,300 $BTC in Q2 to help finance its growing data-center strategy.
But the bigger story is the shift happening across the mining industry:
⛏️ Bitcoin mining infrastructure
→ ⚡ Power + data centers
→ 🤖 AI computing demand
→ 💰 Long-term contracted revenue
Riot has also secured a reported 20-year, $9.1B agreement with Anthropic for 191 MW of computing capacity at its Texas facility, with potential expansion on top.
This creates a major strategic choice for miners:
Keep BTC and bet on future Bitcoin appreciation
or
Sell part of their BTC holdings and invest in AI infrastructure that can generate recurring revenue.
If more miners follow Riot’s approach, BTC selling pressure could increase while miners simultaneously become bigger players in the AI infrastructure market.
🔥 Bitcoin miners may be evolving from pure crypto businesses into energy + computing companies.
The big question:
👀 Will long-term AI revenue ultimately be worth more to miners than the BTC they sell to build it?
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets This time, Grayscale has officially incorporated the cash distribution of staking rewards from an optional action into its product rules 💰
On August 6, new terms for ETHE and GSOL came into effect: staking rewards will be sold for cash, distributed at least quarterly, with the current plan to be monthly.
But honestly, you can't just call it a "quarterly dividend."
Behind stock dividends is company profit, staking rewards come from protocol mechanisms, returns change, token prices fall, and there are fees, custody, and validator risks involved ⚠️
For $ETH, institutions value maturity and relative stability; For $SOL, higher returns and greater flexibility are sought, but network risks are also more closely examined.
So this is not short-term sell-off news 🧠The Bank of Korea hasn't touched gold in 13 years.
The last time I bought gold was in 2013, when I bought 20 tons. Later, the price dropped from 1600 to 1180, which probably left Koreans with psychological trauma.
Thirteen years later, they returned.
In the second quarter, 679,800 shares of the SPDR Gold ETF were purchased, with holdings valued at $250 million. Bank of Korea officials also stated: "We are considering ETFs as one of the channels for purchasing gold." ”
What's even more ruthless is that they are not only buying ETFs, but are also planning to directly purchase domestically produced Korean gold bars.
In the Bank of Korea's foreign exchange reserves, dollar assets account for 69.5%, while gold accounts for only 1.1%. This isn't allocation—it's just running naked.
And what about central banks worldwide? In the second quarter, net gold purchases reached 289 tons, setting a new record for the same period in history.
Now let's look at BTC.
Bitcoin's latest price is $63,362, down nearly 50% from the high of $126,080 set last October.
What about gold? It is oscillating around $4,380, and the LBMA survey shows analysts' median year-end gold price forecast is around $4,500. The most optimistic analysts expect $7,150.
One has been cut in half from its peak, while the other is steady and steady as an old dog still rising.
So here's the question—
If you can only allocate one safe-haven asset for the long term now, is it gold or BTC?
Let me clarify one thing first.
Bitcoin is not "digital gold"—at least not yet.
At the beginning of this year, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold was still -0.9—one up, one down, each going their own way.
And now? The correlation has turned positive to +0.7.
What does this mean? It means the market is starting to treat BTC as a safe-haven asset.
But a positive correlation is not naturally bullish—both assets could rise or fall together.
And what about gold's safe-haven status? It has never been truly questioned.
Iran conflict escalates, gold ETFs see $6.2 billion in in a single week. Central banks have been net increasing gold holdings for several consecutive years. The more chaotic the geopolitics, the more sovereign funds are pouring into gold.
What about BTC? In May, Bitcoin ETFs saw $8.9 billion in outflows, while central banks bought 41 tons of gold during the same period.
Institutions are withdrawing Bitcoin, while sovereign wealth is increasing its holdings in gold.
Gold is "Central Mother's money," BTC is "players' money."
The money of the central bank mother—regardless of cost, not watching candlesticks, not caring about short-term fluctuations. They allocate gold in ten-year increments.
Players' money—looking at macroeconomics, monitoring liquidity, and cutting positions as soon as the risk control model is triggered.
In 2022, during the Russia-Ukraine war, BTC fell along with US stocks. In 2026, during the US-Iran conflict, BTC still fell along with US stocks.
What "digital gold"? It's just the best marketing copy in a bull market.
So is BTC worthless?
Of course not.
Stretching to 10 years, BTC's returns are 65 times that of gold.
A 213x return—only BTC can achieve this in this era.
So my setup idea can be summed up in one sentence:
Gold holds the bottom while BTC attacks.
Allocate gold—because the central bank is buying, because geopolitics are chaotic, because it's the real last line of defense. 69.5% of South Korea's foreign exchange reserves are in dollars, they're getting anxious. Are you anxious?
Allocate BTC—because if you only allocate gold, you miss the greatest asymmetric investment opportunity of this era. When BTC dropped 50%, you didn't dare to buy; when it rose to 120,000, did you chase it?
In practice, I only say three things:
First, don't treat BTC like gold. Volatility is not on the same scale. A 1% drop in gold in one day is called a "flash crash," while BTC dropping 5% in one day is called a "normal correction."
Second, don't treat gold like BTC for speculation. Gold's annualized volatility is less than 20%, and you expect it to double your value? You're overthinking it.
Third, the Bank of Korea's $250 million purchase is not large in scale but signals a very strong signal. Those who haven't touched gold for 13 years have returned. What do you think they are afraid of?
Gold is the reason you can sleep well at night.
BTC is your reason not to sleep ten years from now.
$BTC $XAU $XAUT #黄金维持高位, the Bank of Korea returned to the market What on earth is $BICO this coin playing with? From 0.011 to 0.063 to 0.027, I stripped it clean
Guys, I posted about $BICO before, and some said I was showing off, some said I was just hindsight. Alright, today I'm going to dig BICO inside and out—data speaks for itself, logic speaks for itself.
1. What exactly does $BICO do for you?
First, figure out what this coin is for. Don't just idle for a long time without even knowing what the project is about.
$BICO is the native token of the Biconomy network, with its core business being Account Abstraction infrastructure. In plain terms—making Web3 as simple as using Alipay: transfers without buying ETH (gasless transactions), lost wallets recovered (smart accounts), and operations on one chain are automatically completed on another chain (cross-chain execution).
There was no problem with the technical direction, and it was one of the promoters of the ERC-4337 standard. But the problem was—this track was too crowded. Safe, Pimlico, and Stackup were all vying for the same pie, with fierce competition to the point of exploding.
BICO's all-time high exceeded $21 (last bull market), hit a new low of $0.011 on July 28 this year, falling for four and a half years, a drop of 99.86%. A coin that fell from $21 to $0.011—tell me, how strong are its fundamentals? Forget it.
2. How did this surge happen?
On July 28, it bottomed out at 0.011, then surged dramatically to 0.0638 within a week, an increase of over 430%. On August 7, it surged to 0.05116, rising 40.8% in 24 hours, directly reaching the top spot on CoinGecko's trending list.
Why is it rising? Three reasons:
First, the short meat grinder. BICO fell from 21 to 0.011, with too many short sellers. As a result, two new perpetual contracts went live (Aster DEX with 5x leverage on August 4, AlphaX DEX with 50x leverage on August 5), and speculative funds rushed in. Within 24 hours, 1.7 million USD was liquidated, of which 1.35 million were shorts, directly crushing the short positions. Short sellers were forced to close out and buy, which ironically became fuel for the sell-off.
Second, the base is too low, and the percentages are deceitful. From 0.011 to 0.063, it looks like 430%, but in reality, the absolute increase is only 0.05%. Turning over from a corpse is mathematically easy.
Third, focus feeds itself. At the top of trending searches→ more people see → more people buying→ prices keep rising→ continue to dominate the charts. This is a cycle, not fundamentals.
3. Why did it fall back again?
Rising fast, falling even faster.
Around 15:10 on August 9, the price of BICO perpetual contracts experienced sharp fluctuations across multiple platforms, accompanied by large on-chain capital movements. Gate later issued an announcement to fully compensate BICO liquidated users in USDT.
It plunged from 0.063 to 0.027, turning from a 430% gain to a 57% drop in one week.
The reason is simple:
First, this is hype, not value discovery. No pressure to unlock large amounts, no blockbuster collaborations, no explosive income explosions. The surge relies entirely on speculative capital, unrelated to fundamentals.
Second, heavy market control by big players. On-chain data shows the top 100 wallets control the vast majority of supply—a rally only takes a few big players working together, and dumping the market only takes them with a click.
Third, liquidity is too poor. BICO's order book is pitifully thin, with a depth ratio of 0.01 meaning almost no buy orders to support the decline. So a 12% drop in 15 minutes can turn into panic selling.
4. Counterfeit capital rotation, BICO abandoned
Counterfeit funds are rotating very quickly, basically every two or three days with one token running.
Previously, funds played around in the APR area, then moved to EDEN (the leader in the RWA sector, rising from 0.039 to 0.092 on May 17, an increase of over 130%), and now they've moved elsewhere. BICO？ The dog farm probably even forgot about this coin.
After BICO rebounded from the bottom of 0.011, without new narratives to catch up, once funds left, the price couldn't hold up.
5. What do you think about it now?
Current price: around 0.02779, sharp drop 17.24% in 24 hours, trading volume 5.2 million U.
Technical Aspects: All moving averages (MA5/MA10/MA30/MA60) are all pressed above the price, forming a standard bearish arrangement. Every rebound is triggered by sell-offs.
Key Position: Support below 0.02661; if it falls below 0.01855, the next target is 0.02665. Above, a break above 0.03 is needed again, and the MA5 will turn from resistance into support.
Project team risk: In May, the project team quietly unlocked 90 million BICO and transferred it to the exchange. Historically, this kind of operation has always signaled selling at high levels. The selling pressure hasn't finished yet.
Say a couple of words
BICO's technical direction is correct; account abstraction is indeed a major trend in Web3. But the problem is—no matter how good the technology is, if no one uses it, it's useless.
The current BICO is a classic triple bomb: low liquidity + high market control + no fundamental support. When prices rise, they aggressively push prices up; when they fall, there's no resistance. Making money by shorting? Getting stuck going long? It all depends on whether you can hit the right pace.
I still have my short position, opened at 0.044, holding it until now. Target 0.025 unchanged, halfway out, the remaining value is 0.02.
Brothers, where do you think $BICO can still fall? Let's talk in the comments.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
#加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced? #标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
I'm the mid-term intelligence bro. On August 13, the S&P closed at 7799, setting a new all-time closing high, just about 2.6% away from 8000. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Yardeni (8250) set 8000 as their year-end targets, and Tom Lee even pushed the timing to the end of August, showing clear FOMO sentiment.
I don't deny there's something at the bottom: 85% of constituent stocks in Q2 exceeded expectations in earnings, AI cloud capital spending started to be reflected in Microsoft/Google/Amazon's cash flow, and the cooling PPI diminished expectations for a rate hike in September—this is real support.
But in the medium term, I focus on three cracks: first, the rally is held by giant tech chips, while the even-weighted S&P has lagged far behind and has not spread widely; Second, forward PE is at 20+, RSI pushes overbought prices, and options gamma squeeze pushes the close, not a healthy expansion; Third, Bank of America Ciana's direct indication that 7800 may be a false breakout, watching for a three-wave correction between 7200 and 6850.
It's not that 8000 can't be reached; even if it does, it's easy to become an emotional peak. I won't chase sharp spikes in the medium term, keep positions for a pullback to 7700/7625 to confirm breadth, then re-enter the table. If 8000 is below low volume and there's no volume, reduce my position—new highs are often the days when expectations are highest and margin for error is lowest.
$BTC
$ETH
$SNDK Let's talk about the current market situation and the dilemma surrounding my own holdings.
Last night, Bitcoin briefly fell below 63,000. I originally wanted to buy a short-term long position, but after much consideration, I gave up.
The core concern is that US stocks are currently at high levels. If there is a correction, cryptocurrency, as a high-risk asset, will definitely be driven down by sentiment.
Right now, Bitcoin is stuck at 63,300, which is very tough. There's no independent market, the rally lacks momentum, and if it falls, it could be dragged down by US stocks at any time. Both bulls and bears dare not act rashly.
Although looking back, going long below 63,000 and rebounding to 63,600 can yield short-term profits, risk should always be prioritized in trading.
Ethereum is even more flat, fluctuating around 1880, but failing to break through the 1900 level, making it difficult to break out of the trend in the short term.
Focusing on SanDisk's SNDK, it has been very strong recently. I opened a short position at 1515 to play for a pullback, the market surged to 1579, then pulled back just to hit the cost line and rebounded again. Now I'm passively holding the position.
After several consecutive days of gains, I have accumulated considerable profit-taking positions. I predict a subsequent adjustment, waiting for a pullback to 1450 to prepare for closing and exiting.
It is also important to objectively remind investors that with long-term positive news released daily, the bullish foundation remains, so when shorting against the trend, controlling position size is essential. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens, with expectations for #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points heating up The real battleground for stablecoins isn't about issuance volume, but about the settlement network. Simply understanding stablecoin competition as "who issues more" is somewhat like judging a bank's entire ability by total bank deposits: numbers matter, but numbers themselves don't make the most of it. Mechanically, stablecoins are closer to a programmable settlement certificate. Issuance reflects the scale of the stock, while the network's value depends on whether it can be used sustainably, at low cost, and in a trustworthy manner. What users really need is not a string of seemingly stable numbers lying in their wallets, but a smooth flow of funds to the next destination during transfers, clearings, hedging, and fund allocations. To become a high-frequency settlement tool, a stablecoin must cross at least four thresholds. The first is reserve and redemption. Whether the anchored promise is trustworthy and whether users can complete redemptions as expected determine the stablecoin's credit foundation. If the base has cracks, no matter how lively the chain is, it might just be a beautifully built stage. Second is on-chain transfer capability. Whether transactions are stable, costs are controllable, and the network can operate continuously determine whether it can handle daily settlements. The biggest concern with settlement tools is "loading" at critical moments, which is even more frustrating than price fluctuations. Third is cross-chain and cross-platform liquidity. Stablecoins are distributed across different blockchains, trading platforms, and protocols. If assets cannot circulate efficiently, liquidity is divided into pools of water slots. It looks like there's quite a bit of water, but when you actually need it, you might not be able to scoop it out. Fourth is fiat currency deposits and ingresses and compliance processes. The on-chain world is not an isolated island. Users, businesses, and institutions will eventually need to connect bank accounts and make paymentsHere's a harsh fact: the S&P is close to 8,000, while BTC is still stalling at 63,000.
I checked the data: at the end of 2024, the S&P closed at 5,881, now at 7,799, up more than 30%. What about BTC? At year-end, it was 93,000, now it's 63,000, down 30%. Keep in mind, last December BTC even hit 108,000, down 40% from its peak. ETH is even worse, at year-end over 3,300, now below 1,900—almost halved. Other people's bull market is ours, which is pretty ridiculous. But I actually think this is worth pondering.
The core reason for this round of US stock gains is AI narrative + rate cut expectations. But the question is, how much has the AI dividend priced in? Yesterday, $SNDK held an investor day, saying the gross margin target was 80%, and they signed $94 billion in long-term orders, with the stock price jumping 13% and the market cap reaching over $220 billion—roughly equivalent to the total market cap of ETH. One storage company has a market value equal to Ethereum. Nvidia is even more outrageous: one company has $5.4 trillion, while the entire crypto market is only $2.2 trillion, which is two and a half billion worth of yours.
The more capital piles up in US stocks, the lower the marginal return, and sooner or later, you'll have to find a new place.
Historically, every late stage of a US stock bull market has been the time when capital spillover is strongest. The surge in everything in 2021 didn't happen out of thin air; it was because US stocks couldn't rise and money overflowed to find more elastic assets. What are BTC and ETH? They are the springs most sensitive to global liquidity—the longer you hold them down, the harder they pull.
The current market is actually quite interesting:
$BTC Having been grinding between 62,000 and 66,000 for over a month, spot trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since 2019, and implied volatility is hovering at the year's bottom. Neither up nor down, bears can't push down, and bulls can't pull it up. This kind of sideways trading with shrinking volume is either a sign of a big drop or the eve of a big rise. I lean toward the latter—the May wave from 78,000 to 73,000, ETF net outflows of 2.8 billion yuan for nine consecutive days, panic trading is out early.
$ETH I've been investing regularly for a while, and the logic is simple: ETFs have been approved for over two years, but capital inflows have been lukewarm, prices have fallen back to 1900, and the negative news has basically been exhausted. ETH to BTC is still hovering at low levels; if there really is a rotation, ETH will bounce up no faster than Bitcoin.
Of course, it's not that it will rise tomorrow. In the short term, it might still need to be toughened, and it's even possible to step on it again. But if you ask me, looking back in half a year, what position is it now—I think it's a cash delivery position.
The S&P 8000 point will be reached, and BTC and ETH will not be absent either. The only difference is whether you chase in while the crowd is bustling or ambush when no one is interested.
Control your position yourself; don't go all in. Time rewards those who are patient.
What do you think? Is now the right time to regularly invest in BTC/ETH? Just a discussion, not advice.
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up After Trump established the BTC reserve, why has quantum security become the next national exam?
The Trump administration first promoted strategic Bitcoin reserves, then elevated post-quantum cryptography migration to national security levels. These two initiatives may seem like different departments, but they actually point to the same issue: once digital assets are held by the state long-term, security standards cannot remain at "not breached today." Governments need to consider technological risks ten or twenty years from now, and quantum computing is a long-term variable that all public key systems cannot avoid.
$BTC's core security comes from cryptography and distributed consensus. Many people's first reaction when hearing about quantum computing is "Will Bitcoin reset to zero overnight?" This claim is an over-exaggeration. Quantum devices in reality are still far from large-scale cracking, and the Bitcoin protocol can also be upgraded to migrate signature schemes. But the risk does not lie in sudden occurrences tomorrow, but whether the system has enough time to coordinate hundreds of millions of addresses, exchanges, custodians, and long-term inactive wallets to complete the migration.
The country's push for post-quantum cryptography means these risks are moving from scientific research discussions to infrastructure planning. Governments can require institutions to inventory systems, update standards, and migrate high-value assets within specified deadlines; Decentralized networks lack a single person responsible for enforcing all user actions. BTC's advantage is the lack of single point of control, and the difficulty of upgrades is precisely the lack of single control. Technical solutions can be proposed by developers, but social consensus must be completed by global participants.
This will change how strategic reserves are managed. When governments hold BTC, it's not just about putting private keys in cold wallets; it also requires key rotation, multiple authorization, geographic isolation, succession management, and future algorithm migration processes. True national custody is not just about "never going online," but about ensuring that even decades later, someone still knows how to verify, transfer, and audit these assets. Policy announcements address whether to hold them, while the operational system addresses whether they can hold them securely.
From a positive perspective, national-level crypto migration will drive the entire industry to build standards ahead of schedule. Hardware wallets, custodians, and public chain development teams will all pay more attention to quantum-resistant signatures and migration tools. If BTC can complete a smooth upgrade before real risks arrive, it will prove it can not only withstand economic attacks but also adapt to underlying technological changes. This capability is very important for reserve assets, because the essence of reserves is to cross cycles.
But the process will not be without controversy. New signing algorithms may increase transaction volume, affect node costs, and involve sensitive issues such as how old addresses are handled and whether long-term lost coins are frozen. Any forced migration plan will cross the boundaries between property rights and protocol immutability. Upgrading too early may incur unnecessary costs, and acting too late may expose high-value addresses; timing choices themselves are a test of governance.
$ETH also faces quantum security issues, but it has a more complex account and protocol upgrade route. Ethereum links account abstraction with post-quantum migration, hoping that in the future, wallets will no longer be permanently bound to single-signature methods. BTC emphasizes simplicity and stability, ETH emphasizes programmability and adaptability; both approaches come at a cost. The former is easier to build long-term trust, while the latter may be easier to provide migration tools for new cryptographic solutions.
Trump's policy creates an interesting paradox here: the more the government includes digital assets in national strategy, the more it will demand scrutiny at the traditional critical infrastructure level. In the past, the crypto industry could treat quantum risk as a distant topic, but strategic reserves could not. Anything held long-term on national balance sheets must answer issues of disaster recovery, succession authorization, and technological obsolescence.
Therefore, quantum security may not immediately determine BTC's price, but it may determine whether BTC can truly become a century-old asset. The market discusses ETF flows and the Federal Reserve every day, but long-term holders should pay more attention to whether protocols have reached migration consensus, whether the custody industry has updated standards, and whether risks from old addresses have been quantified. The sooner problems are resolved, the less need to rush into crises in the future.
$BTC Being included in strategic reserves only proves the government's willingness to hold them long-term; Whether it can cross the quantum era proves it is worth holding long-term. Scarcity answers how much to issue, and secure migration answers whether these assets will return to their original owners decades later.The crypto world now resembles a "high-volatility stablecoin": good news stalls the market, negative news can easily collapse; To truly stimulate it, it requires three signals resonating — "rate cut expectations + capital flow back + regulatory easing." A single positive factor cannot reverse weakness.
Why do good news stall and bad news is more feared?
- Macro Positive Factors Diverted: Inflation cooled, rate hike probability declined, but funds preferred AI and tech stocks, causing liquidity in the crypto market to be drained
- Weak liquidity: Crypto ETF funds are flowing out, and institutions are actively reducing risk; Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen over $1.4 billion in outflows over the past three weeks
- Fragile leverage: The derivatives market is highly leveraged, with both positive news chasing and negative moments trampling the market, with tens of thousands of liquidations occurring within 24 hours
- Regulatory uncertainty: Key legislation is progressing slowly, suppressing institutions' willingness to allocate long-term
Why are US stocks and crypto "in opposite directions"?
- Core of U.S. Stock Market Gains: Strong Earnings Expectations in AI and Technology Sectors, Expanded Capital Expenditure, Macroeconomic Cooling Is Just the Icing on the Cake
- Crypto is more liquidity-driven: highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity and interest rates; When funds are siphoned by AI, macro positive factors are hard to convert into buying interest
There are three types of signals that can truly "stimulate" encryption
- Shift in macro liquidity: The Federal Reserve has clarified its rate cut path, the US dollar index is weakening, US Treasury yields are falling, and funds are returning to high-risk assets
- Capital inflows: Spot ETFs have shifted to continuous net inflows, with institutions increasing holdings again, reversing the current outflow trend
- Regulatory easing: Clarifying progress on legislation, reducing compliance uncertainty, and boosting institutional confidence in allocation
Trading and holding advice
- Reduce leverage: In a high-leverage environment, positive news can easily be "sold off," while negative news can trigger chain liquidations
- Focus on funds and ETFs: Use ETF fund flows as a leading indicator of institutional attitude, waiting for confirmation of returns
- Waiting for "resonance": Single data is hard to change the trend; prioritize watching for signals of macro shifts, capital flows back, and regulatory easing
Overall, crypto is currently in a phase of "macro benefits being diverted, capital outflows, and fragile leverage." Only when macro liquidity, capital flow, and regulatory themes improve simultaneously can the market shift from "bottoming out" to trending upward.
The crypto world is right now: if US stocks are good, it's bad; if US stocks are bad, it's black swan events. This market is just too extreme! What kind of news can truly stimulate you?
Why is the market "not rising on good news, fearing negative news more?"
- Macro Positive Factors Diverted: Inflation cooled, rate hike probability decreased, but funds shifted more toward AI and tech stocks, draining liquidity from the crypto market
- Weak liquidity: Crypto ETF funds are flowing out, and institutions are actively reducing risk; Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen over $1.4 billion in outflows over the past three weeks
- Fragile leverage: The derivatives market is highly leveraged, with both positive news chasing and negative moments trampling the market, with tens of thousands of liquidations occurring within 24 hours
- Regulatory uncertainty: Key legislation is progressing slowly, suppressing institutions' willingness to allocate long-term
Why are US stocks and crypto "in opposite directions"?
- Core of U.S. Stock Market Gains: Strong Earnings Expectations in AI and Technology Sectors, Expanded Capital Expenditure, Macroeconomic Cooling Is Just the Icing on the Cake
- Crypto is more liquidity-driven: highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity and interest rates; When funds are siphoned by AI, macro positive factors are hard to convert into buying interest
There are three types of signals that can truly "stimulate" encryption
- Shift in macro liquidity: The Federal Reserve has clarified its rate cut path, the US dollar index is weakening, US Treasury yields are falling, and funds are returning to high-risk assets
- Capital inflows: Spot ETFs have shifted to continuous net inflows, with institutions increasing holdings again, reversing the current outflow trend
- Regulatory easing: Clarifying progress on legislation, reducing compliance uncertainty, and boosting institutional confidence in allocation
Trading and holding advice
- Reduce leverage: In a high-leverage environment, positive news can easily be "sold off," while negative news can trigger chain liquidations
- Focus on funds and ETFs: Use ETF fund flows as a leading indicator of institutional attitude, waiting for confirmation of returns
- Waiting for "resonance": Single data is hard to change the trend; prioritize watching for signals of macro shifts, capital flows back, and regulatory easing
Overall, crypto is currently in a phase of "macro benefits being diverted, capital outflows, and fragile leverage." Only when macro liquidity, capital flow, and regulatory themes improve simultaneously can the market shift from "bottoming out" to trending upward $BTC $ETH After 13 years, the Bank of Korea has bought gold again, but Bitcoin has fallen below 64,000—can the story of "digital gold" continue?
On August 10, Bitcoin fell below $64,000, while gold rose to $4,435.
So far this year, gold has risen about 9%, while Bitcoin has fallen about 11%—the gap has widened to 20 percentage points.
Even more heartbreaking: retail investors inflowed $50 million into gold ETFs in a single day.
Money is running. Running toward gold.
"Isn't Bitcoin digital gold? When hedging is underway, shouldn't it rise together?" ”
Wake up. The market has long been voting with its feet.
On August 13, a piece of news went viral in the traditional financial circle—
The Bank of Korea made its first gold purchase in 13 years.
According to the 13F filing submitted to the U.S. SEC, as of the end of the second quarter, the Bank of Korea held 679,765 shares of SPDR Gold Shares, with a market value of approximately $250 million.
$250 million is not a large amount for the Bank of Korea. But the signal is significant.
This is the first gold-related investment by the Bank of Korea since 2013. More notably, the Bank of Korea also announced a new mechanism to purchase domestically produced physical gold. This is the first time in nearly 60 years.
The head of the Bank of Korea's foreign exchange reserve management department put it bluntly: "Geopolitical risk has become a persistent feature in the global environment, and central banks in many countries have shown significant interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. Given that China's gold holdings remain relatively low, it is necessary to increase holdings. ”
South Korea is not an isolated case.
According to data from the World Gold Council, in the three months ending in June, global central banks net purchased 289 tons of gold, setting a new record for the same period in history.
A World Gold Council survey shows that 45% of surveyed institutions plan to increase their gold holdings in the coming year. Meanwhile, no central bank considers Bitcoin as an asset as important as gold.
Gold is in central bank reserves. Bitcoin is in retail wallets.
This is the most stark reality.
What do analysts think?
A July survey by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) of 16 professional analysts showed that by the end of 2026, gold prices are expected to be around $4,500, with an annual average expected of $4,604.
The most bullish analysts predict that gold prices could reach $7,150 this year.
UBS directly shouted: "Buy gold below $4,000 with your eyes closed." ”
And what about Bitcoin?
On August 8, the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold reversed from -0.9 in winter to +0.7.
Has the narrative of "digital gold" returned? Back, my ass.
When correlation turns positive, it means Bitcoin is starting to be driven by geopolitics like gold—but the price direction is the opposite. Gold rises, Bitcoin falls. Is this called positive correlation? This is called being left behind by gold.
To put it bluntly:
The phrase "digital gold" is the most successful yet risky marketing copy in the crypto world.
Gold has a 5,000-year history as a store of value, is included in the reserve system by central banks worldwide, tracked by the World Gold Council, and priced by LBMA.
What is Bitcoin about? There is a supply cap of 21 million coins and a bunch of retail investors who believe in the "digital gold" story.
Institutions can shout "Bitcoin is digital gold" while simultaneously liquidating their positions with one click when the risk control model triggers. ETFs provide institutions with a door to enter and also a way out for them.
The Bank of Korea's $250 million is not a large amount for the gold market.
But for Bitcoin, the signal is too glaring—
Even the Bank of Korea, which hadn't touched gold for 13 years, has returned, and Bitcoin has never been on any central bank's reserve list.
If more central banks follow suit and increase their holdings in gold, traditional safe-haven assets will become even more attractive to capital. The competitive pressure on Bitcoin as an "alternative asset" will only increase.
It's not that Bitcoin is bad. It's that gold is too old—so old that no one dares to ignore it.
The story of "digital gold" is shared by retail investors.
And real gold, the central bank is quietly buying it.
$BTC $XAU $XAUT #黄金维持高位, the Bank of Korea returned to the market @天才交易员绿毛
$BTC
Bitcoin is basically doomed, with 40,000 just around the corner
Bitcoin is trading at key levels.
62,000-64,000 in the range.
Breaking below this range means a technical breakout,
Entering a deep bear market.
Since the implementation of the Stablecoin Act last year,
Bitcoin and USD-US Treasury Bond Binding Legal,
Major Bitcoin ETFs are being issued worldwide,
Then the story of the buyer began.
This process is equivalent to traditional U.S. debt buyers,
Shifting from state agencies to residents paying.
Therefore, Bitcoin's peak marks the beginning of the U.S. Treasury-dollar cycle (dollar tidal harvesting).
Next, silver-gold assets fluctuated, entering a harvesting phase.
The outbreak of the oil crisis has driven increased demand for the dollar, which is also strengthening the petrodollar.
The core essence of this harvest is to maintain the dollar's strong position.
But a strong dollar is a double-edged sword. Maintaining a strong dollar requires a powerful military force, and financial markets cannot become uncontrollable. However, this strength and uncontrollability may be unresolved due to accumulated historical issues, leading to a state of delay.
Recently, Bitcoin exchanges opened channels for directly purchasing US stocks with Bitcoin. This means the virtual market has broken down barriers with the real market. In other words, the bearers of US stocks have shifted from traditional institutions to global residents.
Therefore, Bitcoin is very likely to continue weakening. The reason is that it has lost its decentralized status and entered a centralized real market. It will continuously drain liquidity to fill the gaps in the US stock market.
Meanwhile, the US is once again using sanctions, trying to repeat 2018/2022. Targeting China's financial market to guide capital outflows to fill the gaps in the US stock market. Now that path is blocked. Times have changed.
$OKB If someone had said a year ago that the S&P 500 would break through to 8,000 points, many might have thought it was crazy. But now, the market is no longer discussing whether it will reach 8,000 points, but when it will break through 8,000 points. Many attribute this rally to AI. In fact, AI is just a catalyst. What truly drives U.S. stocks to hit new highs is the combined effects of liquidity, corporate earnings, and market risk appetite. 🚀 AI remains the biggest engine Over the past year, the biggest winners in U.S. stocks have almost all revolved around AI. From GPUs to servers, then to memory, optical modules, power, data centers...... Capital continues to spread throughout the entire AI industry chain. Tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google continue to increase AI capital spending, convincing the market that AI investment is far from over. As long as corporate profits continue to be realized, high valuations have a foundation to sustain. 💰 What truly supports the 8000-point level is liquidity. Many people think: the index rises because companies are making money. But there is actually an even more important point: the market is beginning to rebelieve in the future. Recently, US inflation has cooled somewhat, market expectations for future monetary policy have gradually improved, US Treasury yields have stabilized, and risk assets have regained capital's favor. The two things the capital market likes most are: ✅ continuous growth in corporate earnings; ✅ and an improved liquidity environment. When both factors appear simultaneously, the market is willing to offer higher valuation multiples. This is also why, even though some stocks have already been valuedThe memory of CORE's $2.6 is ultimately an illusion of expectation, not the price of leverage. Were the 30x and 40x leverage in April 2024 reckless behavior just recklessness then, or a lingering lingering mindset? The trading records from April 2024, when CORE was trading at around $2.6, are not mere traces of losses but a snapshot of what expectations market participants were projecting into the price. At that time, leverage positions ranging from 30 to 40 times reflected excessive confidence in direction rather than spot prices in the price. The problem is that the same expectations persisted even after the losses. To recover losses in the spot market, they shifted to futures, but this is not a strategic change but rather a repetition of the same expectation through different means. In other words, despite the evidence that the belief that prices would rise was a loss, it was not repriced. From a market structure perspective, this story shows not only the psychology of individual investors but also the link between liquidity and position behavior. Leverage positions are priceHave you ever done this arithmetic: your coins haven’t decreased by a single unit, yet your share may already have been halved? This is not alarmism. In many protocols, the “yield” you collect each day is not money the protocol earned but tokens the contract has newly printed. The number in your position rises, your account looks lively, and yet the whole pot is being watered down — the proportion you own shrinks day by day, without your noticing. This is the most concealed form of loss in the cUS stocks hit new highs, crypto hit new lows—who understands?
Last night, the three major US stock indices all closed higher, with the S&P 500 hitting a new record close, and the VIX Fear Index hitting an intraday low of 14.39, the lowest this year—how relaxed is the market? It's the kind of relaxation that "doesn't feel any risk."
The Nasdaq 100 even climbed back above 30,000 points for the first time in a month and a half. The storage sector went wild: SanDisk +13%, Western Digital and SK Hynix +7%, Micron +4%, and AI computing power shovel sellers rebounded. Tesla +3%, Meta +2%.
In contrast, in our crypto world, BTC fell below 63,000, and the market was in turmoil.
As risk assets, while hitting historical highs and breaking through thresholds, funds are casting their votes with their feet. Traditional funds now prefer to chase storage and AI stocks in US stocks rather than tackle crypto assets with uncertain regulations.
My view: it's not that crypto is losing its chance, but that "certainty" is now more valuable than anything else. US stocks have AI narratives and expectations of interest rate cuts, while crypto is waiting for bills and rules, and funds will naturally flow out during the wait. When will crypto be given some certainty, funds will return.$SPCX is currently trading near $141, with a long-short ratio close to 50:50. The combined Starship launch catalyst and unlocking pressure have led to intense two-way leverage clearing in the $140 to $150 range.
Market facts show that leveraged funds are extremely sensitive to impacts at key positions: a long position at $145 triggered a sweep at $141, and a short position at $144 was wiped out at $149.
The early $110 holding cost has not yet crossed the risk line, indicating a clear disconnect between the chip structure of medium-term and short-term leveraged funds.
In the ranking of driving factors, the event-driven premium from Starship launches currently ranks first, while the expectation of unlocking is the main variable suppressing medium- to long-term valuations.
The trigger for an upward scenario lies in whether the price can effectively hold above the $150 level. If volume surges and breaks through $150, it will change the short-term resistance structure, opening up space between $160 and $170.
The upward scenario failed to signal a breakthrough above $150 and a rapid retreat below $144, indicating that buying support was insufficient to absorb the unlocking token.
The trigger for the downside scenario is for the price to break below the current $141 support line. If the opening phase falls below $141, it would signal the relief of sentiment premium, with the downside target targeting the $130 range.
The downside scenario signal is a strong buying rebound at $141 and a recovery of $145, indicating that bears have failed to maintain sustained selling pressure.
In the next 24 hours, focus on volume changes at the $141 support level after the U.S. market opens, as well as bullish turnover at the $150 level.
#Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate financial divergence shows by #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%加密行业盼了四年的"安全港"，又黄了。
SEC 原本今天上午要投票，决定是否推出 Reg Crypto，一份 400 页的规则提案，专门给加密初创公司开三条融资豁免路径，甚至允许代币网络去中心化之后退出证券分类。这可是 Atkins 上任以来第一个正式加密规则制定，行业把宝都押在上面了。
结果呢？会议前一天，SEC 突然在官网把状态改成"取消"，理由就一句：不可预见的日程问题。新日期？没有。
这剧情是不是很熟悉？国会那边 CLARITY Act 也没过，参议院已经休会，下次程序性投票排到 9 月 15 日。Galaxy 把今年通过的概率砍到 30%
更要命的是，白宫和华尔街都在给 SEC 施压：白宫怕干扰立法进程，SIFMA 那些传统金融巨头担心代币化证券冲击现有交易规则。两头夹击，SEC 只能往后缩。
还有个大变量：最挺加密的委员 Hester Peirce 11 月就要离职了。窗口正在一点点关上。
别把这次取消解读成"监管倒退"，方向没变，但节奏确实被拖慢了。对做项目融资的人来说，今年指望不上"安全港"落地，该按老规矩合规的还得按老规矩来。市场嘛，短空长多，别太兴奋也别太悲观。According to market performance after the release of the US CPI data on August 12, 2026, its core impact on the crypto world is short-term volatility but fails to bring about a directional breakthrough. After a brief rally, Bitcoin pulled back and remains within a recent consolidation range.
The specific logic and manifestations of impact are as follows:
· Core transmission logic: CPI data is transmitted by influencing expectations for the Fed's interest rate policy. If inflation falls short of expectations, the market will bet on pausing or cutting rate hikes, which would benefit risk assets; Otherwise, it creates pressure. This time, the 3.4% annual growth rate fully met expectations, so policy expectations were not significantly changed, and the market reacted mutedly.
· Price surged and then retreated: After the data release, Bitcoin briefly surged to a daily high of $65,234 before quickly dropping nearly 3%, returning to around $63,300, reflecting a typical "buy expectations, sell facts" pattern (positive news turning negative).
· A rare divergence from US stock performance: PPI data also shows inflation slowing, pushing US stocks like the S&P 500 to record highs, but Bitcoin has not followed suit. This indicates that off-market capital preferences for traditional and digital assets are structurally diverging.
· Key Upcoming Variables: After the CPI dust settles, market focus shifts to the August 26 PCE Price Index and the September Federal Reserve meeting. Currently, inflation remains above the 2% target, and until clearer signals emerge, the crypto sector may continue to fluctuate. 🚨 RIOT IS TURNING BITCOIN INTO AI INFRASTRUCTURE. 👀
Riot reportedly sold around 4,300 $BTC in Q2 as it funds its expanding data-center strategy.
And the bigger story isn’t just the sale.
It’s the Bitcoin mining → AI infrastructure pivot happening across the industry.
Riot has now secured a massive 20-year, $9.1B agreement with Anthropic for 191 MW of computing capacity at its Texas facility, with potential extensions taking the value even higher.
Think about what’s happening:
⛏️ Mining infrastructure
→ ⚡ Cheap power + data centers
→ 🤖 AI compute demand
→ 💰 Long-term contracted revenue
For miners, the decision is becoming more complicated:
Hold BTC and bet on Bitcoin’s upside
OR
Sell some BTC and fund infrastructure that could generate recurring AI revenue.
That creates a fascinating new dynamic for Bitcoin.
If more miners follow Riot’s path, miner selling could become an increasingly important source of BTC supply — while the industry simultaneously becomes a major player in the AI infrastructure boom.
🔥 Bitcoin miners may be evolving from crypto companies into energy + compute companies.
And that could change the economics of the entire sector.
The question is:
👀 Will AI revenue become more valuable to miners than the Bitcoin they’re selling to build it?
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Riot #RIOT #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #BitMineTopETHStaker #DataCenters #DailyOrbit #AIInfraEarningsWatch #芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days
Damn! The storage stocks leading the Korean market this time are essentially following an outdated cycle script: when they rise, it's all AI myths; when they fall, they revert to ordinary memory junk.
In July, KOSPI was hit rock bottom, with a single-month plunge hitting a post-financial crisis high. On the surface, it looks like the AI bubble is about to burst, but in reality, it's all domestic retail investors and speculative investors trading leveraged ETFs who have ruined themselves.
Once regulators tighten margins, once forced liquidation triggers a chain reaction, circuit breakers happen as frequently as eating, leaving corpses everywhere. Fundamentals? HBM demand, AI capital spending—those messy issues haven't collapsed at all—it's purely their own leverage.
But after about ten trading days, these people frantically bought it back again. KOSPI jumped more than twenty points from the low, directly entering the technical bull market range. Samsung and SK Hynix led the gains daily, often jumping five or six points, and a bunch of related electronics stocks followed suit. Overnight, US storage stocks like Micron and SanDisk were hyped, and the next day South Korea immediately followed suit.
Those so-called KOLs on X clearly understood: isn't this just the crypto world script? Leverage rises and falls, and once regulation loosens, they come back to cash in.
Some people think SK Hynix's HBM is the real deal. The core supplier positions for giants like Nvidia and Google are there, the logic of volume and price growth isn't yet complete, and the forward-looking P/E ratio doesn't look expensive.
However, it should be noted that foreign investors have withdrawn over 100 billion USD from Korean stocks this year, so occasional buying does not necessarily mean actual return; the whole year is still net selling.
The essence has indeed not changed at all. AI capital spending is still being spent, storage shortages—especially in HBM—supply can't keep up with demand, making it hard for this chain to completely shut down. After GPUs, focus on storage; after storage, focus on optical communications, power, and data centers. Funding keeps moving places.
But with such a rapid rally, the driving force of sentiment and bottom-fishing funds is frighteningly strong. The wounds from earlier leveraged liquidations haven't healed yet; this wave now feels more like a revenge after an overselling, rather than some healthy new bull market start.
What truly matters is not this 22%, but whether it can hold its ground going forward. Whether foreign capital can keep entering the market, whether Samsung and SK Hynix can continue to deliver on their performance, and whether the shareholder return plan at the end of the month (like buybacks plus dividends) can really be invested in—these are the key factors.
If trading volume can't keep up and a sudden surge in volume at a high point sells off, this wave of gains can quickly turn into a new batch of trapped stocks.
For people in the crypto world, Korean retail investors have always been one of the main forces in the crypto market. Once their risk appetite returns, it's not impossible for funds to overflow into AI concept coins; while chips are profiting, AI coins can at least get a taste of the soup. But don't expect this to be a long-term trend confirmation.
Whether this money can be made or not, and whether it should be rushed in. It still depends on whether the company can truly make money.
First, see whether the hot money coming in is genuinely intended to be held long-term, or if you want to cash in and then leave, and then decide whether to enter the market.Gold prices have dropped! Should you get on board or run now?
1. $XAU Gold prices recently surged to a high close to $4,450 per ounce, but after approaching the $4,500 mark twice, they turned downward, as the longs who had made money earlier have all pocketed the money, and traders are very nervous about the resistance level at 4,500.
2. US July inflation data generally cooled (CPI and PPI both came in below expectations), and the probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped to about one-third. In theory, lower rate hike expectations would be positive for gold, but the market showed a pattern of "all positive news being gone" — after the data was released, gold prices actually fell. Besides taking profits, it was also related to liquidity concerns triggered by Bank of Japan rate hike expectations.
3. Geopolitical tensions: The Strait of Hormuz is tense, and the US threatens tough measures against Iran. This uncertainty has instead driven safe-haven funds into the US dollar, and the stronger dollar has suppressed gold prices.
Technically, gold prices just broke through the 100-day moving average and then fell back, showing a short-term rise that poses consolidation risks.
Additionally, the Fed's statement that it will not buy Treasuries in the short term to manage reserves shows confidence in the liquidity of the banking system, which is interpreted as a signal that "high interest rates will continue for a while," which is not favorable for gold. Overall, gold prices face multiple short-term pressures. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens #标普收盘再创新高, 8,000-point expectations heat up#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report takes place one after another Crypto is beginning to separate into two valuation languages. For ETH, DeFi and platform assets, onchain fees and protocol revenue can anchor analysis in observable activity. That is progress, but revenue alone is not value: investors still need to judge who captures it, how durable it is and whether token holders benefit.
BTC remains a different proposition, shaped by scarcity, ETF flows, macro rates and its store-of-value thesis. My read is that revenue will sharpen protocol valuation without becoming a universal crypto framework. The market may mature by accepting multiple models rather than forcing every asset into one.
Not advice, just analysis.
#CryptoRevenueVsBTCMany people wonder: with the CPI data in line with expectations and the negative warning lifted, why hasn't the crypto sector rallied? Here's the core logic explained all at once:
1. Most crucial: The market is hyping 'exceeding expectations,' not 'meeting expectations.'
This CPI and core CPI figures all matched market forecasts perfectly, with no surprises.
If the data is significantly below expectations = cooling beyond expectations→ funds directly bet on accelerated rate cuts, which can lead to a sharp rise;
If the data is higher than expected = inflation rebounds → panic decline;
Just in line with expectations = no new positive news, just mitigating rate hike risks.
Simply put: it only avoids the risk of a sharp drop, but does not mean it has sustained upward momentum. On the macro level, there are no new expectations for easing, so naturally no incremental funds are entering to push BTC higher.
2. Classic Rule: Buy expectations, sell facts
Before the data was released, the market had already priced in expectations of "moderate inflation and no further rate hikes," and there was already a pre-rebound in the short term.
With the news officially unfolding, short-term funds that had been lying in wait chose to take profits, and the bullish forces realized their positions in a phase, making it difficult to sustain the rally.
3. The biggest pain point in the current crypto world: only existing capital competition, lacking off-exchange increments
There is currently no large influx of new funds:
$BTC Spot ETF funds are intermittent with no sustained net inflows;
Stablecoin total growth stagnates;
On-exchange funds can only switch internally, clustering $OKB $GRVT a few stocks, which is insufficient to push the Bitcoin to break out of its box range.
Macro positive factors can only support the bottom and prevent sharp drops; they cannot alone drive the upward trend.
4. Inflation is only temporarily retained, not completely resolved
Housing inflation remains sticky, and there are hidden risks of rising oil prices.
Market consensus: A single monthly CPI cannot change the Fed's overall tone of "maintaining high interest rates for some time." Funds dare not aggressively bet on one-sided bull positions; major players choose to wait and see, awaiting further confirmation from PCE and employment data.
5. There is a significant pressure zone on the technical level
BTC 65,200–65,500 is accumulating a large number of trapped positions and take-profit orders.
To break through, volume must continue to expand; A single neutral CPI data is not enough to trigger so much selling pressure. Bulls are reluctant to actively consume funds at resistance levels, so they maintain range-bound fluctuations.
6. The divergence characteristics of the market also confirm this
Not all coins remain unchanged:
$OKB. $GRVT These funds have strong resilience in group groups;
$WLD, $FIL, $STORJ Many weak coins continued to perform worse.
This shows that funds are not afraid to participate in the rally, but rather unwilling to rally across the board, choosing to cluster around the main theme without a full bull market atmosphere.
Summary in simple terms
The CPI implementation can only be done by excluding short-term black swan hikes and holding the bottom range.
To start a sustained rise, at least one of two conditions must be met:
(1) Subsequent economic data continues to weaken, and market trading accelerates expectations of rate cuts;
(2) BTC broke through the 65,500 resistance level with increased volume, breaking the box consolidation structure. Oh my god, ETH is squatting back near 1874, grinding close to 1862, the recent low. To give the conclusion: I'm watching and cautious, not chasing long at this level, nor rushing to bottom-fish.
The twist is right here—sentiment is bubbling up. Spot ETFs saw net inflows for two consecutive days, Fidelity even submitted an application to stake Ethereum ETFs, and 67% of major players' accounts are still long, with KOLs who are bullish and bearish at two and a half times the total in one day. Anyone reading this script should be going upward.
But the price just refuses to accept the price and instead grinds toward lower points. The most striking thing is the large cash flow: in the past three hours, not a single net inflow has been squeezed out, and all 12 candlesticks are in the red. On the contract side, it's even more straightforward: actively selling accounts for 60%, and positions keep increasing—prices stay unchanged, positions are rising, and selling pressure is clearly suppressing.
Here's another hidden risk: on-chain borrowing surged more than 50% in 12 hours, spot long-short ratios nearly reached 9 times, and leveraged long positions are a bit crowded. Under this structure, if good news doesn't provide feedback, you should be cautious. ATR reports extreme volatility and could be big bearish or bullish at any time.
Technically, it's also unclear: the daily death cross hasn't been repaired, MACD is weak, ADX is just over 16, a typical range-bound market, and trend signals are not very useful as references. Now it's all about whether 1862 can hold.
My attitude is simple: just wait for the direction, don't bet on it. Wait until big cash in the spot market turns around, or when volume surges and you pick sides, then make a move. Don't get hit repeatedly within a range. There's a saying in the circle that says it honestly—short selling might make money for a while, but if you drag it out, only the bulls can stay strong. I believe that, but the premise is not to die before this wave dawns. Let's watch the show first.
#eth $ETHThe overall market is listless, with only XRP declining. 24h: XRP -2.05%, BTC -0.5%, ETH -0.2%, SOL basically flat. Why is XRP the weakest?
Two factors:
The Russian central bank's draft includes BTC, ETH, and USDT on the retail whitelist, but does not mention XRP
XRP Ledger 3.2.0 has just launched, but the technical upgrade is short-term less likely to withstand macro risk aversion
SOL's resilience is due to ecosystem data: dApp revenue, faster burning, and staking inflows. XRP lacks recent on-chain narrative, so its capital is naturally weak.
Which L1 have you been paying more attention to lately: SOL, ETH, or XRP?
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened Before reaching its $852 billion valuation peak, OpenAI lost two core commercialization executives within a week, pushing its IPO timeline back to 2027.
Within eight months, seven core executives left one after another, and although the company's annualized revenue and operating rate reached $40 billion, its gross margin remained at only 33%.
Competitor Anthropic's annualized revenue has jumped to $47 billion, and combined with xAI's model price war, this has directly suppressed capital's risk appetite for high-consumption large model assets.
The interplay of high cash consumption and turnover in core sales teams is prompting market funds to re-examine the narrative of high-premium growth, affecting holdings in core computing power chains like $NVDA.
If the new Chief Revenue Officer quickly stabilizes major client orders and drives the proportion of enterprise revenue to exceed expectations, market vigilance against key player risks will quickly cool.
If major clients renew contracts due to slowed team handovers and the $27 billion in cash burn in 2026 intensifies, valuation premium contraction will force institutional investors to further reduce their overall AI sector risk exposure.
When subsequent funding rounds or public market pricing clearly fall below the $852 billion benchmark, the pessimistic pricing for the commercialization gap will be thoroughly confirmed.
The most noteworthy variable in the next seven days is the progress of retaining and handing over long-term cooperation agreements with existing major clients by the new team.
#Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate financial disparities have #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, and pressure from the US and Iran has escalatedThe S&P closed at a record high again, and the market casually put the "8,000 points" on the table. To be clear: this is not an exclusive ETH red envelope, and even if US stocks rise, on-chain wallets won't be filled remotely.
The transmission I want to see is very specific. If risk appetite really moves toward crypto, the ETH/BTC ratio, net inflows into exchanges stablecoins, and perpetual fund fees should all show some movement, with only a brief price spike and thin evidence.
My crystal ball is still under repair, so I can only honestly look at on-chain data. Especially don't turn rate cut imagination into a bull market script, with the dollar and leverage in between.
The wind is coming, but whether there's wind inside the sail or not, the data speaks for itself. If stablecoins don't enter the market, I'll put the "8,000-point carnival" back in the drawer first.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be aware of the risks #$ETH Thị trường hiếm khi khiến nhà đầu tư mất trắng chỉ trong một cú sập duy nhất. Thông thường, họ làm điều đó bằng cách thuyết phục mọi người rằng một đợt tăng ngắn hạn chính là khởi đầu của một xu hướng dài hạn. 📉 Một vài cây nến xanh mạnh là đủ để Crypto Twitter tuyên bố rằng "mùa altcoin đã trở lại." Nhưng dữ liệu lại kể một câu chuyện hoàn toàn khác. Thanh khoản hiện vẫn tập trung vào một nhóm nhỏ các tài sản có niềm tin cao. Đây không phải là một đợt tăng rộng khắp, mà là thị trường của người$SNDK SanDisk previously stated that, driven by long-term pricing agreements with customers, it expects revenue to grow by 15% to 20% between 2028 and 2030. Andrew Jackson, Head of Japanese Equity Strategy at Ortus Advisors, wrote: "A few years ago, it was unheard of for NAND flash manufacturers to provide such accurate long-term forecasts. Compared to the more volatile spot memory prices, long-term agreements may help smooth out classic boom/bust cycles."
I'm the Air Force, you keep sending good news. What do you mean??????Seventy million dollars spent on a sandcastle, yet the blueprint only shows 26% of the load-bearing wall—this isn't design, it's performance art.
I stared at this XST "structural drawing" as if looking at a construction plan without a pile foundation. 74% of the bricks are held by the same account, meaning the entire building can be moved at any time, while the retail investors staying downstairs "copying trades" are just wax figures in the demonstration zone. The so-called "ten-thousand-person lottery" on TikTok is essentially building the sales office on quicksand—traffic is the wind; wind can blow up fires but also blow away foundations.
Having worked in this industry for forty years, I know the most dangerous thing is never the ugly facade, but the "technical innovation" on the blueprints. A project's white paper can be written as beautifully as Zaha's curve, but if its underground garage has only one exit, the day of fire acceptance becomes its anniversary. XST's token model is just such a fire safety blind spot: market value is a cross-sectional view, liquidity is temporary support, and the centralized token holding structure is the cantilevered beam that never dares to be drawn into construction plans.
Some say Meme coins are installation art in architecture, needing no function but narrative. But even Louis Kahn's concrete must bear weight, and Frank Gehry's curves have hidden steel frames. Buildings built purely on viral momentum can't even pass wind tunnel experiments—when social media shifts, the first to be toppled are those slender columns with only 13 stories of observation towers.
The "piling record" for this project clearly states: None. No distributed foundation, no time-accumulated strength curves, only a group of salespeople holding loudspeakers shouting on TikTok, "This is a future landmark." I've seen too many such sites, and in the end, all that remains is a rusty tower crane and a court seizure order.
Anyone who works in design knows that when more than 70% of a building's load-bearing components are supplied by a single supplier, it's not built for living—it's designed so that on a typhoon night, when the entire building falls, the supplier has already purchased insurance on another continent.
This is not a building; it is a prefabricated parachute. And the most ironic thing is, the parachute is only proven unstitched at the moment it jumps.
#影响周期·Daily #链上事件· Meme Risk #XST·74% concentration·Market cap $70 million#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
Last night, both CPI and PPI weakened. On the surface, inflation seemed to be easing, but the Fed was in turmoil, and the market was deeply divided over whether to raise rates in September. Many people thought that once inflation fell, they would immediately loosen the market, but let me explain it thoroughly—don't be fooled by surface data.
What signals does the data actually send?
Overall inflation readings are declining, upstream PPI pressure has significantly eased, and the decline in energy prices has made a significant contribution, directly lowering the probability of a rate hike in September. The market is trading expectations of a "pause in rate hikes," and risk assets such as US stocks and deposits have seen a wave of recovery.
But the key point is that core inflation stickiness remains, rents and service prices have not completely collapsed, and the 2% inflation target is still far off.
This has led to polarization within the Fed:
- Dovish: CPI and PPI have clearly cooled, so there is no need to continue raising rates. Continued tightening could damage the economy, so hold steady in September;
- Hawks: Core inflation is stubborn and should not be misled by short-term data. If inflation rebounds, the option to raise rates again should be kept, and action in September is not ruled out.
In short: the data gives reasons not to raise rates, but not conditions for a cut. Right now, it's a stalemate.My giant panda brother's quota is here!
Panda Bro's use of SLRV to conclude that 'Bitcoin is about to bottom' is logically untenable, with three obvious blind spots:
1️⃣ Confusing "state" with "point in time": SLRV dropping to a very low only objectively describes the extreme silence of current on-chain trading, and does not mean the price has bottomed out. Looking back at 2018, SLRV entered the bottom red box early, but then the price suffered a dramatic 50% halving. Indicator entry into a low level is only a necessary condition for bottoming, far from a sufficient one. Directly calling out "bottoming complete" misjudges the long, disorderly bottoming period as a precise reversal point.
2️⃣ Ignoring the "flat bottom" pattern of bottoming down: Combining the evolution of Bitcoin's macro cycle, real bear market bottoms rarely complete with "V-shaped" straight pulls, but inevitably undergo an extremely low volatility flat bottom structure. During this sideways reshuffling phase, the market needs ample time to accumulate chips and fully clear leverage and speculative funds. Just seeing SLRV dip to assume the bottom is over completely ignores the inevitable process of flat bottom accumulation over time and space. 3️⃣ Indicator failure of "carving a boat to seek a sword": After spot ETFs and institutions take over the market, a large volume of trading shifts to on-chain UTXOs matching on-balance sheets and custodial pools, causing structural changes in on-chain UTXOs and shifting the indicator center downward. Applying the absolute value of old cycles to today's institutional market is tantamount to blindly guessing bottoms on the left side.
In short, it's best not to heavily buy the dip at the current position; holding a light position and waiting for a lower bottom is a safer approach. Of course, a continuous DCA is also acceptable.$SNDK Positive news piles up, SanDisk takes off immediately!!
Yesterday I also increased my holdings, with performance upgrades and multiple positive factors for buybacks. Funds repricing has driven the storage sector uphill, and the price has exceeded pre-market expectations. It has now entered a high level, with heavy pressure at 1580. Now, as the weekend approaches, profit-taking positions are being cashed out. Those still going long should be careful of fuel!
$ETH #闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11% #韩股KOSPI进入技术性牛市 What should you do when your contract craving hits?
Look at the recent situation—even top influencers have been caught on leverage and hanging on trees. This kind of thing really isn't something just anyone can play.
But people always have moments when they can't control themselves. My simple method: open a mosquito position with 50U, just enjoy it and then close it. Silently saying, "This is a big 50,000U order," I show myself how much I make or lose, treat it as a fun experience, and it won't affect my mood.
The real main force always stays in spot BTC and ETH, standing still like a mountain. Once the foundation is stable, no matter how much you try to stir, you don't panic.
After all these years, I've come to believe one thing: in a bear market, slowly pick up chips—BTC, ETH, SOL, plus reliable platform coins like OKB and BNB—stockpile and wait for the wind to come. When the bull market comes, I sell in batches. And regardless of price swings, I always hold at least one big pie in my hand—it's my lifeline.
$OKB
$BTC
$ETH
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens #
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another ⏳ THE MARKET IS NOT WAITING FOR YOU TO BE READY. You can spend months waiting for a "nicer price". But when the market reverses, the opportunity can disappear very quickly. 🚀 That's why DCA is of interest to many investors. Instead of betting the whole thing at one time: 💵 $100 per month 📆 Buy on a plan 🧠 Don't try to guess every beat 📉 Keep going even when the market is volatile However, let's look at the history: $TRX → +195% $BTC → +54.6% $XRP → +51.2% $SOL → +43.3% $ETH → -12.5% $ADA → -53.3% 🔥 Timing matters. But$SOL
I can't quite understand this market trend anymore
It has been fluctuating like this all along, neither breaking down nor rising
The weekend is almost here, and the weekend is basically dead silence. Looks like I'll have to hold this coin challenge position until next week
My impression is that we're still waiting for interest rate hikes, and news of rate cuts will materialize
The butt determines the head. I think the daily resistance levels of 83 and 84 will still be reached, but what I'm afraid of is... Before it goes up, it first hits my stop-loss down
That is the most heartbreaking thing
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened $BTC The biggest seller, almost sold out?
Analyst Murphy posted on X: After $BTC fell to around $63,000, almost all the chips bought in 2025 are in a loss.
On-chain data shows that about 4.77 million tokens remain in this batch, down 41.5% from last December's peak.
Excluding internal wallet transfers, the tokens that leave mostly mean holders are cutting losses or completing a turnover.
Before February this year, this batch of stranded listings dropped rapidly; After February, the curve clearly slowed.
The price continued to fall, but the number of shares did not decrease sharply in tandem, indicating that the most panicked traders have already exited, leaving only long-term holders.
Additionally, BTC bought from 2022 to 2024 and still has floating profits is now nearing flattening on its selling curve.
The longer you hold it, the less sensitive you are to short-term fluctuations.
Referring to the previous two bear markets, at the end of 2022, the high-level chips in 2021 dropped by about 51%; At the end of 2018, the high-level chips from 2017 dropped by about 62%.
Currently, the current rate is 41.5%. If we refer to history, selling pressure may not have fully released yet, but the most panicked selling phase is likely over.
There is another clear difference in this round: the 2025 holdings include institutional funds such as ETFs and Strategies.
These chips are usually held for a longer period, so this round of high-level holdings may not need to be reduced by 60% as in the past for the market to bottom.
#加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced? $AAOI After the US stock market opened last night,
Tormented me so much that I doubted my life.
It fluctuates up and down, fluctuating up and down by 2%.
How to respond?
Brothers, stop staring at altcoins,
Altcoin liquidity is drying up, so it's better to pay more attention to US stocks.
In practice, the Wall Street team
Targeting $NVDA, $MU, $AAOI
Short-term trading was conducted,
The core logic is to establish a long position before the US market opens and close it before the market closes.
This is how huge profits are generated.
The chart below uses $AAOI as an example to see its volatility!
How can you grow your account without being gradually cut and shrinking?On one side, institutions are ramping up $SOL; on the other, traditional crypto narratives are once again calling for BTC to hit bottom.
GSR raised the SOL weight in the Core3 portfolio to 43.7%, surpassing ETH and BTC. This isn't a random reposition, but rather a preference for a preference: if the market returns to the risk appetite phase, they're more willing to bet on highly resilient chains rather than just stick to the most stable assets.
Forward Industries acted even more directly. It bought another 254,325 SOL, spending about $19.07M, with an average price of about $75. After buying, its holdings rose to $SOL 7.807 million tokens, accounting for about 1.3% of circulating supply. This is no longer a "small position testing the waters," but rather treating SOL as a core asset to stockpil.
But on the other hand, VanEck said $BTC may be approaching the bottom of this cycle. This signal cannot be ignored. $BTC remains the market's main switch; as long as it is unstable, it will be difficult for altcoins and highly elastic assets to independently break through the big rally.
So this isn't a story of "SOL replacing BTC," but rather two types of funds looking at different positions in the same cycle.
BTC is responsible for confirming bottoms and market direction, while SOL is responsible for undertaking risk appetite and offensive resilience. If institutions judge that $BTC is about to bottom, they will start looking for more elastic targets for the next phase, and SOL is one of the easiest choices to put on the table. Nothing is better than good stats and Huma Finance has been putting up some serious ones
They've been building around PayFi, using stablecoin liquidity to support real-world payment activity, and the numbers are getting harder to ignore:
Some of the latest numbers:
🟪 Total Transaction Volume: $16,848,064,107
🟪 Origination Volume: $8,483,690,480
🟪 Payback Volume: $8,314,373,627
🟪 Total Active Liquidity: $233,723,139
🟪 PayFi Assets: $140,466,761
🟪 Depositors: 129,251
Huma is now less than $152M away from hitting $17B in total transaction volume.
source - @Dune #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens as the latest US inflation data slows down. In July, PPI year-on-year fell from 5.5% to 4.7%, and core PPI fell from 4.7% to 4.2%, both month-on-month increases below market expectations. Previously released CPI year-on-year also fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%. Inflation on both production and consumption sides fell simultaneously, and combined with initial jobless claims rising to 209,000 that week, the urgency for a Fed rate hike in September has been further reduced. However, the Fed's internal stance has not been unified. Hamak reiterated that rate hikes are still necessary, while Barkin said many believe current rates are sufficient to curb inflation. The slowdown in inflation momentum and divergent policy judgments coexist, causing market pricing of interest rate paths in September to remain volatile. This mainly affects the market in the following areas: The dollar and US Treasury yields: Cooling inflation usually weighs on the dollar and yields, but divergence can cause short-term volatility. Gold $XAU: Lower expectations for real interest rates are favorable for gold prices, but safe-haven attributes remain under scrutiny. Bitcoin $BTC: Macro pressures have eased, but the market remains highly sensitive to the Fed's ultimate path, and in the short term, risk assets may continue to fluctuate. Currently, overall trading activity in the crypto market is low, with more funds flowing into traditional assets.