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SanDisk投资者日释放关键信号：管理层正试图回答市场长期回避的问题——当前高利润水平是否已处于周期顶部。该公司给出的长期模型显示，FY2028至FY2030年间，营收有望维持中高个位数至两位数增长，Non-GAAP毛利率维持在80%左右，营业利润率约75%，调整后自由现金流比率约50%。这一指引的重要性远超高管口中“AI需求强劲”的表述。 上季度SanDisk实际毛利率达到84.6%，市场真正担忧的是，一旦NAND进入下行周期，这一利润率水平是否会重演历史性回落。管理层给出的答复是：此次周期可能不同，核心支撑在于NBM机制。目前SanDisk已与8家客户签署NBM长期合同，覆盖FY2027约50%的位元产出，FY2028覆盖比例接近三分之二。合同并非简单的购买意向，而是包含锁定量、合约框架、最低财务担保及结构化定价的约束性安排。 这一商业模式旨在改写NAND周期逻辑：传统链条为“涨价→扩产→供过于求→跌价→利润崩溃”；新框架则试图以长期合同锁定需求、控制产能扩张、提升营收能见度，从而降低周期波动。若该模型被市场验证，SNDK估值逻辑的最大变化或将不再是EPS增长幅度，而是市场可能不The brightest stock in the US stock market last night was SanDisk SNDK.
On an investor day, the stock price surged nearly 20% intraday, simultaneously boosting the entire storage sector: Western Digital WDC rose nearly 10%, Micron MU nearly 7%, and Seagate STX nearly 6%.
The reason for market excitement is simple: SanDisk has set an almost "unbelievable" long-term goal—FY2028 to FY2030 revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, non-GAAP gross margin of about 80%, operating margin of about 75%, free cash flow margin of about 50%, and 100% of the remaining cash will be returned to shareholders.
More importantly, this time it's not just empty promises. SanDisk has already signed long-term agreements with eight major clients, covering about 50% of FY2027 shipments and two-thirds of FY2028's shipments. The most fatal problem with traditional NAND is price spikes and falls, while long-term volume locking and structured pricing are essentially trying to turn cyclical business into a "long-term contract business."
The biggest bet behind this is AI inference: the more tokens there are, the larger the KV cache, and the more data centers need high-capacity, low-power flash memory. SanDisk expects the enterprise flash market to reach 1.2ZB by 2030, and is betting on new AI storage tiers with HBF and high-density QLC.
Of course, an 80% gross margin doesn't sound like traditional NAND, but more like Nvidia. Tonight, the market chooses to trust first; next, it's up to SanDisk to turn this "epic PPT" into cash flow $SNDK Why do you think Bitcoin will continue to rise this year?
It's nothing more than a modernized interpretation of the 'carving the boat to find the sword.'
Some people look through historical data and find that Bitcoin halves roughly every four years, and then happens to see a dramatic rally after the halving.
Oh no? Based on the current situation, if the halving is made around 2028, it should take off by about 2029.
The theory of a big rally in 2029 has just started to happen.
How to put it, it has some theoretical foundation, but not much.
Metaphysics is too heavily influenced and should not be taken as investment advice; just watch it for fun.
When a person is extremely powerless against the current situation, they are easily "forced" to discover certain patterns.
My cousin went through three major breakups in 2016, 2018, and 2022. She never examined her own judgment in choosing people, nor did she seriously reflect on her own issues.
The final conclusion is: even years are not suitable for dating. The world's clown watches Gotham, the Chinese clown looks at my sister.
It's the same in financial markets. As long as a chart is drawn neatly enough and several peaks form a line, many people will develop the illusion that they have grasped a heavenly secret.
But the question is, have the recent Bitcoin rally really been purely because of the halving? Not necessarily.
In 2017, Bitcoin caught the wave of exchange expansion and the widespread breakout of the digital currency concept.
The bull market after 2020 was backed by global liquidity injections, low interest rates, and extremely loose liquidity.
Later, institutional funds entered the market, and spot ETFs opened channels—a completely different approach. Halving happens every time, but what actually pushes prices up is never exactly the same.
Halving only deals with a small amount of coins but does not cause coins to be purchased out of thin air.
Miners selling less each day will certainly reduce selling pressure, but for Bitcoin to rise from one price to another, someone still has to bring real money to rush in.
If, after 2028, the world enters a loose cycle again, the dollar remains highly liquid, and institutional funds continue to enter the market, then a major rally in 2029 would certainly not be surprising.
But if at that time interest rates are high, liquidity tightens, regulations shift, and market risk appetite is low, then halving itself cannot save the situation.
Many people confuse the causal relationship.
They thought the halving had created a bull market.
In fact, it's more likely that the halving provides a story that's easy to tell, remember, and spread, while what truly ignites the market is liquidity, sentiment, and new capital.
Moreover, today's Bitcoin is no longer the speculative pond it was ten years ago. Back then, Bitcoin's market value was small, and changes in capital of tens or hundreds of billions could flip prices upside down.
Now that the market is getting bigger, to replicate the early gains of dozens or even hundreds of times, the capital needed isn't just a bit more, but much more.
Therefore, Bitcoin's cycle may still exist, but its power is likely to weaken.
It may continue to rise or keep hitting new highs, but it may not suddenly lift everyone to the skies as it did in the past.
There is an even more troublesome problem.
Once a pattern is known to everyone, it often no longer happens the way it used to be.
If everyone assumes 2029 will be a bull market, then truly smart funds won't wait until 2029 to enter; they may start laying low in 2027 and trading in halving expectations as early as 2028.
By the time ordinary people finally make it to 2029, confidently preparing for history to repeat itself, those ahead may already be selling their goods.
Financial markets have never been buses.
Just because the schedule says it departs at nine, it won't always pick you up at nine. So, I think there's no problem with saying Bitcoin has an upside potential in 2029.
Saying there will definitely be a big rally in 2029, or even treating it as some kind of certainty, is somewhat like carving a mark on the boat to find a sword.
Halving objectively exists, and it does change the new supply. But reduced supply is only one condition for a market to work, not the whole story.
What truly determines whether Bitcoin can rise is whether there is enough money in the market, whether it is willing to take risks, and when those who set an early stance are ready to hand over their chips to newcomers.
Bitcoin's greatest strength has never been limited in quantity, but in its ability to find a reason in different eras that makes people believe it will continue to rise.
In the past, it was halving, then inflation, and then institutions entering the market. By 2029, there will definitely be a new set of explanations.
Whether prices will rise as people imagine is another matter. The only variable here is that the fool's consensus is still consensus.
When you bind enough idiots and reach a consensus, it really is possible to create a tail that never stops. $BTC $SNDK #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced? #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate treasuries are becoming fragmented Goldman Sachs bought NEOS, and BTCI also entered the shelves of major institutions. Everyone's eyes turned to me: the ones being acquired are fund managers, not the Bitcoin network. Don't just stuff the acquisition price into the coin price.
BTCI uses Bitcoin ETPs plus sell call options to exchange monthly allocations. When the market surges, options may cut off part of the upside; When prices fall, the premium is not a bulletproof vest.
I compare BTCI net asset value return with the spot Bitcoin index and then check the discount premium. A widening gap indicates that income packaging costs are involved.
I reacted a bit too slowly; the advantage is that I don't applaud the first candlestick. Let's first see if the fee rate and option coverage ratio will change after the acquisition.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be aware of the risks #$BTC On August 12th, the daily transaction volume of Ethereum Layer 2 reached 12.42 million, setting a new all-time high.
Base alone accounts for 3.6 million transactions, and since early July, it has surpassed Arbitrum to become the L2 with the largest trading volume.
But what about the mainnet? It processes only about 20 user transactions per second, while L2 processes 1,270 transactions. On-chain analytics firm Tanaka did an estimate—Ethereum's application layer generated $1.79 billion in fees in Q2, while the mainnet only captured $88.4 million, less than 5%. The busier the L2, the less ETH collects.
Out of 1.79 billion in ecosystem revenue, ETH received less than 5%, with the rest all eaten up by L2s.
ETH has dropped about 32% this year, while BTC has only dropped 11%. That's how the price gap works—BTC captures its own value, while ETH's value is diverted by L2s.
$ETH In early August, BlackRock did something by tokenizing a $31.1 billion European Money Market Fund on Ethereum.
It's not about testing the waters, but about moving the entire fund onto the blockchain.
BlackRock's BUIDL fund has been running on Ethereum for seven months, reaching a scale of $700 million.
Franklin Templeton is doing the same.
By early August, the entire RWA market had reached $38 billion, with Ethereum accounting for $17.3 billion, representing 45% to 46% of the market. This is a year-on-year increase of 315%, more than BNB Chain and Solana combined.
Institutions choose Ethereum not because it's cheap—on the contrary, mainnet gas fees are much higher than L2s. They choose the credibility of the settlement layer. BlackRock won't put $30 billion in funds on a chain that might fork or have chaotic governance. Once institutions come in, these assets won't change hands frequently and will accumulate on the mainnet to form long-term liquidity. L2s are competing for retail investors' trading volume, while Ethereum is competing for institutions' balance sheets. Of these two paths, which is more valuable is still hard to say $ETH In early August, there was a highly controversial proposal—EIP-8363.
The core logic is: when ETH staking reaches 50%, all new issuance rewards for validators are burned, and staking rewards are reduced to zero.
SharpLink CEO Joseph Chalom directly opposed this, saying it would shake ETH's core advantage over BTC—native yield. Aave founder Stani Kulechov also opposed it. At the core developer meeting on August 6, this proposal was shelved.
The proposal hasn't been advanced yet, but this issue will inevitably be addressed. ETH's staking rate is already 34%, and it's still rising at about 1% per month. If EIP-8363 finally passes, ETH's "yield-bearing asset" narrative will be completely rewritten—staking yields drop to zero, and institutions will have one less reason to allocate ETH. If it fails, staking rates keep rising, validators will increase, security costs will rise, and ETH supply inflationary pressure will persist. Both sides have problems, and both need to be resolved $ETH Recently, as inflation data softened, the market immediately started going long for growth
The logic is standard: funds become cheaper, discount rates fall, and future cash flow becomes more valuable
But I'll ask one more question
Money has become cheaper—electricity, advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory, top engineers—have these things increased?
No
These physical bottlenecks often take 2 to 5 years to ease
Interest rates can shift for months, but wafer fabs cannot
//
So where does the loose money flow?
The flow is not to increase supply, but to compete for existing scarce resources
The result is: asset prices rise first, but real production capacity doesn't keep up
Everyone feels like they're solving bottlenecks, but in reality, they're making bottlenecks even more expensive
//
I no longer consider "interest rate cuts → long growth" as the default move
They first ask themselves: What is the tightest physical bottleneck right now? How long will it take to ease it?
Is the loose money shortening this time, or prolonging the time for the fighting?
Interest rates can change quickly, but scarcity does not
When the two are mismatched, the first thing to reveal is not the growth slope, but the crack between asset prices and real supply. #美股Here's some data we just saw today: the total number of Ethereum developers has already exceeded one million.
Smart contract deployments during the days of August 5th and 7th were 50% higher than the three-month average.
ETH balances on exchanges have dropped to their lowest level since 2016, with weekly outflows of about $25.6 million.
Developers are building things, exchanges are shorting, staking rates are rising—all three directions are pointing to the same conclusion—ETH is shifting from a "trading asset" to a "productive asset." Gas fees have dropped below 10, on-chain speculative demand has cooled, but developers are deploying contracts, institutions are moving RWA, and stakers are locking positions. When ETH rose to 4800 in 2021, none of these three things happened. ETH's underlying logic has changed a lot, but the price hasn't kept pace with this shift.
$ETH 큰 코인 가격 하락은 생존 문제가 아니라 자금 배분 문제다 시장이 두렵다는 반응과 실제 자금 이탈 사이에는 시간차가 존재하지 않나 최근 대형 코인 가격 조정을 두고 공포를 말하는 시각이 많지만, 실제로 이번 하락은 이전 상승분을 실현하려는 차익 실현 수급이 가격 상단을 눌렀을 뿐이다. 원문에서 언급된 것처럼 가격 하락이 곧 가치 하락을 의미하지 않으며, 온체인 상의 실질적인 매도 압력은 단기 보유자와 레버리지 청산 물량에 집중되어 있다. 시장 구조를 보면 대형 코인은 여전히 기관 자금과 패시브 배분 수요가 하방을 지지하는 구간이며, 2020년 이후 반복된 패턴이다. 다만 이번 사이클은 과거와 다른 지점이 있다. 2017년이나 2020년 312 이후처럼 시세를 단순히 보유하는 것만으로 수익이 나는 국면은 끝났다. 현재 시장은 실수요 자금이 프로젝트의 실질 사용성과 유동성 깊이를 확인한 뒤 진입하는 구조로 바뀌었고, 단순히 코인을 들고 있는 것만으로는 더 이상 초과 수익을 기대하기 어렵On August 13, there was a net inflow of $6.7169 million, with Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF accounting for $6.4748 million.
Although the volume is small, the direction is shifting.
At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $131 million.
The money has been moving from big cakes to two flats, and this trend has been ongoing for some time.
In August, Bitcoin ETFs brought in over a billion, but prices barely changed because miners and retail investors were simultaneously selling shares. The situation on Erbing's side was exactly the opposite—ETFs continued small-scale regular investments, miners didn't pressure on large-scale selling, and the staking rate had dropped above 34%. More than one-third of the supply was locked in staking contracts and couldn't be released. For 1,888 ErBing, whether you think it's cheap or expensive depends on which timescale you're looking at.
After bottoming near 1,863, the second Bing has rebounded, with the moving averages forming support above, marking a buildup phase after the pullback ends. Short-term support is at 1,873-1,875, with strong support at 1,862. Resistance above is at 1,900 and 1,970. If volume surpasses 1,900, bears may be forced into a round. Coinglass data shows that if ETH breaks above 1,975, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream platforms will reach $788 million. Conversely, if ETH falls below 1,791, the long liquidation strength will reach $697 million $ETH The ETH supply ratio on exchanges has dropped to 0.129, the lowest point since 2016.
The more coins locked in, the fewer things that can be sold.
But prices are still fluctuating around 1,888, and demand hasn't kept up with the contraction in supply.
Someone is doing one thing—withdrawing, staking, locking. A whale transfers 37,000 ETH out of Gemini and then deposits them in batches into Beacon Chain for staking. No selling, no swapping, no trading—just locking positions. Retail investors are watching, while whales are locking positions. Same price, two completely different operational logics.
Vitalik's version of Lean Ethereum's roadmap is still progressing, with anti-quantum, privacy, and STARK verification all in the queue. But on the macro level, PPI year-on-year was 4.7%, slightly below expectations, and inflation is easing. The urgency of Fed rate hikes is decreasing, which is good for risk assets, but Bitcoin and US stocks diverged yesterday, hitting new highs, and Bitcoin is still grinding at 63,000. Bitcoin is also grinding. Macro logic and capital flows are in conflict, and the direction hasn't been decided yet.
The market in 2026 and the DeFi bull market in 2021 are completely different worlds. Back then, coin prices rose, gas fees went up, market sentiment rose, and all three lines resonated in the same direction. Now, the price is flat, gas fees have dropped below 10, staking rates are rising, and the three lines are each going their own way. The structure is changing, but the direction of change hasn't yet materialized in price $ETH This morning, 238 million yuan was liquidated across the internet, 131 million yuan in long orders, and 108 million yuan in short orders.
Er Bing's long positions exploded by 24.99 million, and short positions by 8.65 million. The bulls suffered three times more blows than the bears.
Those who were bullish yesterday probably won't feel comfortable today.
At 1,900, shorts haven't gained much advantage, and the price is still fluctuating around 1,888.
Spot ETF inflows have plummeted by more than 80% since mid-July. The sustained net inflow momentum in July clearly slowed in August. Demand is cooling, and prices are cooling accordingly. US stocks hit new highs, but Erbing doesn't follow. Macro conditions are improving, but ErDing doesn't follow. The market is waiting for something that can truly ignite sentiment—it could be progress on the CLARITY Act or the implementation of the SEC's Reg Crypto rule.
Before that, the 1,800-2,000 range is very likely to continue grinding. Every time it feels like it's about to break out, it goes down. Every time it feels like it's about to collapse, it holds steady. It's uncomfortable to go long or short at this level, but the trend usually only moves when most people are uncomfortable. $BTC $ETH #财报观察员: AI infrastructure financial reports take the stage Everyone, the current round of AI infrastructure financial reports has indeed shown good numbers, but the market's attitude has clearly changed.
Lumentum's revenue grew 109% year-on-year, with next quarter guidance of $1.225 billion to $1.275 billion. Coherent's revenue rose 34% to $2.05 billion, with guidance above expectations. Cisco's Q4 revenue was $17.3 billion, up 18%, with full-year AI infrastructure orders reaching $9.3 billion. Applied Materials' Q3 revenue was $9.12 billion, up 25%, with an EPS of 3.50, and guidance also above consensus.
The numbers are quite strong, but Coherent, Cisco, and Applied Materials' stock prices came under pressure after their earnings reports. The market is no longer satisfied with "growth" and is looking at three more detailed factors.
First, can profit margins be maintained? Revenue grows quickly, but if costs rise faster and profit margins are squeezed, the market will reprice.
Second, capital expenditure efficiency. Investment is expanding, but how much income does every dollar invested generate is more important than revenue growth rate for valuation?
Third, order visibility. In the past, the market would buy orders as soon as they saw growth; now they demand to see whether orders can continuously convert into profits.
The growth story of AI infrastructure remains, but the market has shifted from "pricing by expectations" to "pricing by efficiency." After this round of earnings, stock prices came under pressure, not because the industry was struggling, but because the pricing logic had changed.
Everyone, the AI infrastructure sector has no long-term problems, but the short-term valuation revaluation isn't over yet. Let's wait until the market has digested this round of earnings reports before deciding. What do you all think about the future direction of AI infrastructure? Let's talk in the comments. Have a great weekend to everyone $SNDK $ETH $BTC [Market Analysis]
The convergence and accumulation pattern at both large and small levels offers good room for both upward and downward movements
I'm bullish recently, or rather, bullish in the medium term
Since it's still a bear market, we only look at the rebound. Although the bear market only has three months left, we shouldn't underestimate the potential decline during these three months
Back to the present:
Bullish.
The reason is that CPI, PPI, and employment conditions do not allow for rate hikes (and they themselves are impossible; U.S. Treasury yields are destroying the global economy). Therefore, in recent months, expectations for energy-related inflation driven by rising oil prices have cooled, leading to a rebound in US stocks.
Where can you see the bullish market? It's roughly around the resistance level between 67.5k and 68k.
This is the starting point of the previous round's single-sided downtrend, with heavy selling pressure on trapped stocks.
Additionally, although the short-term can be long-term, the underlying liquidity risks are also very high. The most representative gray rhino is the future reality of the Bank of Japan openly raising interest rates. Japan's rate hike is almost a certainty, and the interest rate differential between the US and Japan will cause the yen to continue depreciating. Raising rates without rate hikes will only address the symptoms and root causes.
This transmission chain will hinder the U.S. policy of strengthening the dollar.
In short, yen carry trades are forced to reduce positions under expectations of yen rate hikes, which worsens liquidity runs.
What we are waiting for now is a high point where we can confidently short the market. This peak must have been brought about by "rate cut expectation trading," and the cause of rate cut expectation trading is "US inflation cooling and energy prices dropping completely."
With expectations of rate cuts, all risk assets, including the crypto world, will come under downward pressure, completing the final round of leveraged clearing.
It will probably be around November to February next year, because interest rates are unlikely to change in September.
Rate cut expectations are most likely to occur between September and November, and we are very likely to see a high point suitable for short selling.
So, at the time of August, I prefer to accumulate long positions, even if we might move to the 61.8-60.6k range.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened DeepSeek今天同时发布了两件事：DeepSeek-V4-Pro正式上线，以及DeepSeek Harness v0.1开发者预览版开源。
Harness的核心逻辑是一个公式："Model + Harness = Agent"。这不是一个新模型，是一个让模型变成能够自主完成多步骤任务的编程智能体框架——直接对标Anthropic的Claude Code。MIT许可证，代码在GitHub开源。
从团队成立到开发者预览，DeepSeek用了约五个月，这个速度即使在中国科技圈也属于极快。团队由Cui Tianyi领导，他今年3月从著名量化公司Jane Street加入DeepSeek。
为什么这件事对AI行业是重要的结构性变化：模型越来越容易被替换，因为接口趋于标准化；但控制智能体如何推理、调用工具、编辑代码、跨任务持续运行的"harness层"却很难替换。DeepSeek在争夺这一层。
这是今年第二次中国AI产品直接冲击AI编程工具市场——1月DeepSeek R1发布引发芯片股一日蒸发$6,000亿，7月Kimi K3开源权重引发芯片股再度抛售。这次Harness的逻辑不同：不是说"我的模型更便宜"，而是"我来控制你的工作流"。
对BTC：AI工具层竞争加剧→芯片股短期情绪可能再受压制→风险资产承压。
$BTC $AAPL Recently, AAPL has been pulling back from a high of $344.57 at the end of July, testing the low near 300 again, with a maximum drawdown close to 13%. As of the close on August 13, the stock price returned to $305.26. Although it has regained the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, it remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, so it currently feels more like a recovery after a decline, and it is not yet confirmed that a new round of gains has begun.
I opened a long position at 305, and it's basically near the cost for now. This position isn't bad, since it's close to the support zone between 300 and 302, but you must be disciplined.
✔ Hold 300–302, and I'll keep watching a rebound
✔ 307–310 is the first resistance; hold steady at 310 on increased volume, then look at 315–319
✔ If I can't break through repeatedly at 307–310, I will consider reducing my position a bit first
✔ If the daily chart effectively falls below 300, it means the rebound logic has failed, and I won't blindly buy long
Apple's fundamentals are not bad, with latest quarterly revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16% year-on-year, and earnings per share up 29%. The real issue now is not whether the company can make money, but that valuations remain high, and the market's demands for AI, new products, and future growth are increasing.
My judgment is that 305 can serve as a defensive long position, but not blindly going long. If 300 holds, there is still room for a rebound; If 300 holds, the downside risk will reopen.$SNDK Now is not a good position to open new short positions; it belongs to the left too early zone of "logic correct, wrong timing." The short selling logic is not broken, but in mid-August, this level is a tangled zone of "already fallen once + cycle unproven + buyback support the bottom," with a low probability of bare-knit shorting.
The current bullish pattern remains intact; as long as it pulls back, it will be an entry opportunity, with a target of 1630.You don't necessarily need to catch the exact bottom. You need a strategy you can stick with. Imagine allocating $100 every month since 2022. Historical performance: 🥇 $TRX +195% 🥈 $BTC +54.6% 🥉 $XRP +51.2% $SOL +43.3% $ETH -12.5% $ADA -53.3% The difference between winners and laggards is impossible to ignore. DCA helps with consistency. Research helps with selection. Risk management keeps the strategy sustainable. Past performance is not a guarantee of what's next. What's your long-term pick$2Z's real demand is far from proven Low latency is indeed valuable for high-frequency transactions, MEV, and some validators, but most ordinary validators and users have very limited willingness to pay "a few milliseconds faster." If network usage (real paid traffic) cannot keep up, token demand will remain weak for a long time.
2. Token Design Determines Selling Pressure Contributors receive 2Z rewards by providing bandwidth and hardware. This means that as long as the network is running, new tokens will continue to be released into the market. When early users and payment scale were not large enough, this design naturally leaned toward supply-side pressure.
3. The current price is not cheap Falling from 0.09 to around 0.05, a significant drop, but compared to its actual network revenue and value locked, the valuation remains high. The rebound is more of a technical correction after oversold rather than a fundamental-driven reversal.
4. Common Problems in the DePIN Sector Many DePIN projects initially pushed prices up through narrative and airdrop hype, then entered a long "proving themselves" phase. Only a few survived; most would fall in a low market for a long time after the hype faded. 2Z has yet to move past this stage.
Fierce, charge, eat a chicken dinner 深度拆解 ACO 代币经济学：10亿恒定总量背后的通缩与分配逻辑 📊
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链上 DEX 交易 Gas、闪兑手续费、去中心化广场功能解锁及直播打赏，均包含代币销毁与归集机制。
随着生态应用（RWA+社交+直播）活跃度提升，代币通缩速率将动态加快，形成可持续的价值底层支撑。
不讲故事，只看逻辑。你觉得这种产出与销毁机制能否支撑长期的价值闭环？
#代币经济学 #Tokenomics #ACO公链 #DeFi #区块链 First, technically, $SPCX rose too much yesterday, and today's pullback is part of a clearance. Second, the previous positive news that supported the rise has also been diluted.
For example, Musk said Grok 4.6 was powerful, and then DeepseekV4PRO was released, but before he could even sit down, it was kicked off. This directly hurt the rental income expectations for computing power rentals.
For example, the internal speech released on August 11 claiming AI accounted for 99% of SpaceX's value was itself controversial, with some seeing it as irresponsible. It directly hit investors targeting Starship, Starlink, and defense orders.
Also, the so-called Wall Street research report about 300 billion in revenue is itself a marketing effort to promote the stock price riddled with loopholes. First, building 10GW of computing power by the end of the year is basically impossible. Second, this linearly extrapolates the premium from the current computing power scarcity period.
Moreover, cross-industry hoarding of computing power actually proves that Grok itself cannot absorb computing power. The so-called "buying second-hand Chinese power equipment" and quickly building computing power centers inevitably faces many difficulties in implementation.
How to read the market chart:
Holding at 139–140: This can still be defined as a strong turnover after a breakout, since this is the original resistance zone from August 10–11
Recovery from 143—145: This indicates that today's main focus is on profit-taking market cleanup
Closed below 138.7–139: Yesterday's AI PR combination gains were mostly reversed, and the next step is likely to test the 135 issue price
135 also fell: returned to the 130–133 range to seek new support
Regaining 146.15: Only then does it count as regaining the qualification to attack 150An address is transferring old BTC out of the chain in batches. This batch of addresses hadn't sold at $120,000 in 2021, but now they're starting to move.
At the initial bottom, old money starts to loosen, signaling chip turnover.
But if the outflow continues to increase in the coming weeks, it will need to be reassessed.
The 63,000 level has been repeatedly rubbed since late July, with only a thousand knives up and down.
BTC inflows to exchanges have dropped to their lowest level in nearly three months, with no one depositing coins to sell. Sellers are shrinking, which is more interesting than buyers watching and waiting.
When prices are sideways, it's often because neither the buyer nor the seller moves. But if the seller stops selling and waits for the buyer to move a little, the price might bounce back.
FTX is still paying compensation; on August 12, it transferred 2,300 BTC to exchanges, worth 146 million. A weekly volume of 2,000-3,000 BTC is not large, and the pace is very stable. Spot trading volume shrank to its lowest level since 2019, and after that year, trading volume dropped to this level and then surged tenfold. History doesn't repeat itself, but extreme contraction itself is a signal.
On the miners' side, hash rate dropped from a peak of 1,150 to 886, a 23% decrease. Core Scientific has already started converting mining farms into AI data centers, and miners are transforming. Selling pressure is continuously consuming, but not all sold. Long-term holders have started to lose money; in 2015, 2018, and 2022, every time long-term holders lost money, the market was near the bottom area.
63,000 has been broken, and both 62,000 and 61,000 are support.
My strategy?
Hold spot stocks, don't add leverage, don't open new positions. Wait for the results of the CLARITY Act or the SEC's Reg Crypto before making any decisions. Before the direction is announced, watch more and move less.
The signals at the bottom are triggering one by one, but triggering does not mean an immediate reversal.
$BTC Before the long-term financial model was released, SNDK hovered between 1300 and 1380 for several days.
After the long-term model was released, a bullish candlestick shot straight above 1500.
That breakthrough wasn't instantaneous; it was gradually pushed up, taking nearly an hour.
Some people buy slowly after confirming fundamentals, not chasing gains. SanDisk's revenue from 2028 to 2030 will maintain "mid-to-high double-digit" growth, with a gross margin around 80% and an operating profit margin of 75%. Institutions look at these, retail investors look at candlesticks.
Of the 23 analysts, 21 gave a Buy rating with a target price of about 1,800, which is 15% higher than the current price. The market is repricing SanDisk from a NAND cyclical stock to an AI infrastructure company with long-term revenue visibility.
The NBM protocol has signed 8 clients, with a minimum contract revenue of 93.9 billion, and more than half of its capacity for fiscal year 2027 has been locked down. Tokenized stocks are traded 24/7, effectively connecting US stock trading hours with the crypto market.
SNDK's liquidity is much worse than the underlying stock; the underlying stock averages tens of billions per day, while SNDK is fifty million per day. For this stock, position control is more important than direction judgment. Don't use the underlying stock's liquidity to trap SNDK.
I'm waiting for a pullback; 1450-1480 is the first support; if it breaks, target 1400-1420. Resistance above is 1600-1650. As long as the underlying stock's long-term logic remains unchanged, SNDK's trend direction will not reverse independently $BTC CryptoQuant data shows that BTC inflows to exchanges have dropped to their lowest level in nearly three months. No one is depositing coins to sell; sellers are actively contracting. There are few people still selling in the market, but buyers haven't entered either, and prices remain flat like this.
Grayscale's GBTC addresses have started transferring old BTC out in batches. These addresses didn't sell even at $120,000 in the last bull run, but now they're starting to move. At the bottom, old money starts to loosen, usually signaling chip turnover, but if the outflow continues to increase in the coming weeks, it's time to reassess.
FTX compensation continues, with 2,000–3,000 BTC flowing into the market weekly at a steady pace. This selling pressure isn't significant, but it's happening every day. Spot trading volume shrank to its lowest level since 2019. After shrinking to this level in 2019, BTC went through a wave. History won't repeat itself, but extreme contraction itself is a signal.
On the miner side, Core Scientific and TeraWulf have already started converting mining farms into AI data centers. Hash rate dropped from a peak of 1,150 to 886, a 23% decrease. Miners transitioning to AI are seeing ongoing sell-offs, but not all sold out.
Long-term holders started losing money. In 2015, 2018, and 2022, every time long-term holders lost money, the market was near the bottom area. Bottom signals are triggered one by one, but triggering does not mean an immediate reversal.
63,000 has been broken, and below 62,000 and 61,000 are support. I'm neither bullish nor bearish at this level; I only know one thing—the seller side is much weaker than a month ago. Hold the spot, don't add leverage, don't open new positions. Before the direction appears, watch more and move less. The longer you grind, the stronger the breakout will be $BTC $INTC Completed a $20 billion private placement expansion and attracted over $100 billion in subscriptions, with huge funds flowing directly into AI foundry manufacturing. Aggressive risk appetite in the primary market has quickly locked in long-term chips, and institutions are focusing on reassessing capital expenditure cycles for advanced processes. If subsequent capacity launches drive external order volume, valuation centers are expected to steadily rise, but massive depreciation may suppress position resilience. When subscription enthusiasm fades and yield ramps lag, the logic will fail. The next step is to observe contract order confirmation and actual production pace.
#加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced? #标普收盘再创新高. Expectations for 8,000 points heat up. #CLARITY表决待定, SEC rules have not been implementedTokenized shares must go through three stages: issuance, distribution, and clearing before reaching users, but there is no fixed rule for who does which step. The real competition happens between these three stages. According to RWA.xyz data, as of August 12, the total size of the tokenized stock market was about $2.5 billion. Ondo leads with $866 million (34.6% market share), bStocks surpasses to second place with $614 million (24.53%) less than two months after launch, and xStocks slips to third place with $560 million (22.37%). The top three together account for about 80%. The dilemma of independent distributors is that they lack their own users and liquidity, and must rely on channel distribution channels. Ondo pursues a multi-chain infrastructure route, xStocks expands horizontally and supplements governance voting rights vertically, while Securitize focuses on institutional efforts to avoid direct competition. But once channel owners step in to build their own distribution, distributors go from partners to replaceable suppliers. bStocks, Bitget's Reality platform, and Gate's gStocks are all like this. The brokerage direct connection route directly targets users' most basic needs: buying US stocks that are truly backed by underlying assets. In the first nine days after Mou'an's real stock spot was listed, the average daily turnover was $143 million, three to four times that of tokenized spot during the same period. Gate, Coinbase, and Crypto.com have also launched real equity products through licensed clearing channels like Alpaca. The value of tokenization remains—self-custody, 24×7 trading, composabilityTether completed the full audit process
Tether stated that KPMG has completed a complete 2025 financial audit of issuer Tether International, issuing an unqualified opinion as of the end of last year, with reserve assets exceeding $6.814 billion. The audit even conducted a physical inventory of each gold bar, rather than relying solely on the custodian report.
The key is not the "180 billion" scale — which everyone has long known, but that it has finally transitioned from the long-standing attestation to four levels of comprehensive audits: the former only takes a snapshot of assets on a given day, the latter reviews the entire financial process and asset authenticity, which has been the pain point Tether has been questioned for nearly a decade.
But this does not mean the current asset has been re-examined. The baseline date is at the end of last year, and the latest 2026 Q2 assurance (issued by BDO) shows USDT issued at about 184.6 billion, with the excess buffer reduced to about 4.11 billion, thinner than at the end of the year; Moreover, the full audit report has yet to be disclosed, with only confirmation from KPMG confirming an unqualified opinion.
$USDT When the tide of speculation subsided, the crypto market finally began to settle accounts honestly. During today's Asian session at midday, $BTC fluctuated narrowly around $63,364, with total market trading volume plunging 51.9% to $72.78 billion. On the surface, the shrinking volume and sentiment hit rock bottom (the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 29), but in reality, capital is undergoing a profound "logical overhaul"—the era of pure narrative storytelling is over, and projects without real revenue are being rapidly abandoned. 📌 ══════════════ [L2 Business Awakening] From "Collecting Tolls" to Entering the App Market According to DeepTide TechFlow, leading L2s like Arbitrum and MegaETH are collectively shifting gear, no longer just competing for the underlying block space, but actively engaging in application development. 💡 In-depth analysis: Since ETH's Cancun upgrade, L2 gas fees have plummeted, and the "selling block space" pipe worker model has hit a ceiling. The shift of Arb and others marks the shift of L2 competition from an "infrastructure armament race" to a "hand-to-hand battle in the application ecosystem." In the future, the valuation anchor for L2s will shift from pure TVL and transaction volume to "application layer prosperity and real revenue." 📌 ══════════════ [On-chain Finance Breakthrough] Figure delivers $87 million in net profit statement. TechFlow points out that on-chain financial platform Figure doubled its quarterly revenue, with net profit reaching 8.7 billionVolume rebounded overnight from -90.8% to -24%, and the breadth narrowed from 2 up 13 to 4 up 11 down—at first glance, it seems like a bleeding stop. But $BTC at $63,380 this hour, still -0.81% in 24 hours, the drop deepened.
Brothers, watch carefully: what fills back is the "volume from the drop," not the "volume from the buy." After volume drops, volume slightly increases; usually, it's stop-loss orders and bottom-fishing flash orders cutting each other. If the price hasn't stopped falling, it means the bulls haven't truly returned. FG 29 fear, OI 109,800 unchanged, Funding +0.0097% Neutral — leverage is lying low, withdrawing spot confidence.
Frameworks that can be taken away: Shallow replenishment after ground volume + breadth no longer worsening ≠ stabilization. True signals require volume to return near the average (within 20% of ±) and BTC to close with a solid bullish candlestick. Currently, neither is currently in the market, at most it can be considered a "slowdown in decline."
Blind spot: Snapshots don't show net inflows from major players, making it hard to distinguish between institutional buying and retail investors cutting losses. Confirm whether the next round of volume holds above the average + breadth returns above 7.
Bet: Will this week's volume really hold above the average, or will it drop back to the ground at -24%? Comment on the numbers and share your reasoning.
Crypto assets carry high risk. The above is purely personal nonsense and does not constitute investment advice.
#OKX星球 $BTC #量能回补 #广度止跌 #变盘前夜Just after 11 p.m. last night, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas tweeted.
He said that Bitcoin ETF inflows in August have already exceeded the total in July, but prices have basically remained unchanged.
At the end of his tweet, he added: "This is not a bearish signal, it's that chip turnover is underway." ”
I've been holding this position for so long, and the entries and exits are evenly matched.
On-chain data can actually reveal who is leaving. Short-term holders' open interest dropped to about 3.4%, the lowest level since 2011. If these people leave, where does the coin go? It ends up in addresses that have held it for over five years. Currently, this supply share is reaching a historic high.
The current market structure should be: those who are afraid have mostly left, while those who are not remain in place. This structure does not provide a short-term driver for prices, but it means selling pressure is continuously weakening.
As long as the buyer increases the volume a little, the price can easily be pushed up. Whether to push or not depends on when the buyer makes a move.
What is needed now is a catalyst to break the deadlock between buyers and sellers $SNDK On August 13, Wintermute released a report discussing the "decoupling of crypto assets from traditional markets."
The report includes data: Bitcoin's 90-day correlation on August 9 has dropped to 0.43, a significant decrease from 0.89 in May.
Bitcoin is gradually breaking away from the pace of US stocks. This actually started as early as July. At that time, the Nasdaq fell 6%, BTC was only around 61,000, a drop of less than 2%. If this had happened a year ago, this would have been unlikely. The market is undergoing structural changes, but these changes are not easily reflected on candlesticks in the short term. The decline in correlation means some capital is pricing Bitcoin with different logic, no longer treating it merely as a high-risk tech stock but as an independent asset class.
CryptoQuant's CEO also mentioned a similar phenomenon on X, saying that institutional Bitcoin pricing logic is shifting from "beta assets" to "macro hedging tools." This shift is not visible on exchange order books; it is reflected in position adjustments on larger time scales $SNDK 熊市后半段的典型特征，如今越来越清晰。
$BTC短期持有者持仓占比持续回落，这绝非偶然，前几轮熊市末期，都出现过相同信号：
·短线投机者不断离场
·外部增量资金持续沉寂
·市场热度与讨论度大幅降温
与之对应的是，筹码正在缓慢向长期持有者集中沉淀。
熊市最煎熬的阶段，往往不是连绵不断的暴跌。
而是行情阴磨到最后，关注盘面、交流行情的人越来越少。
后续重点盯紧一个核心指标：
当短期持有者占比在低位再度拐头向上，意味着新鲜参与者、新增需求重新流入市场。
底部从来不是靠各种观点喊出来的，
是无数交易者慢慢熬出来、静静等待出来的。
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到What exactly happened to US crypto regulators this week: not 'waiting for news', but both lines going silent together
Today (8/14) was supposed to be the day for the SEC to give the industry an explanation.
But the night before, the official website changed the "Regulation Crypto" public meeting status to Cancelled, with four words: schedule conflict. No new date given.
That same week, the Senate entered the August recess with the CLARITY Act, and the full House voted on the September 15 procedural milestone (cloture, requiring 60 votes, not final approval).
Thom Tillis himself said the bill's chances of passing within the year are "roughly halved." On Polymarket, the implied probability of "passing the law within 2026" dropped from 70%+ in May to about 14%.
So you see, BTC is swinging less than 2% in a day at 63k–64k, while XRP is stuck at 1.01—not because there's no direction, but because everyone who can provide direction is on vacation.
(1) The parliamentary line: called the "Clear Bill," which becomes increasingly unclear as it changes
When the case passed the Banking Committee at 15:9 on May 14, many people really thought the "regulatory boundary" was about to be established.
But after nearly 11 months of bipartisan negotiation, the main text has grown to over 300 pages. The core bottleneck is not how the SEC/CFTC splits power, but rather:
- The Democratic stronghold of "crypto interests restrictions for federal officials and relatives," targeting projects linked to the Trump family;
- Within the Republican Party, the Hawley group is still holding on to stablecoin interest rates and community banks absorbing deposits and losing their deposits;
- Toon can only submit a cloture motion first, and on September 15 vote "Allowed to sit on the table for discussion"; passing it does not mean it has passed.
A bill called CLARITY has turned itself into a paste.
(2) SEC line: wants to fill the gap, but doesn't dare to act first
After taking office, Atkins made "crypto issuance customization regime + innovation exemption + safe harbor" a key focus.
On 8/14, the main topic of this meeting was to enable early-stage token projects to raise their first money without fully following traditional securities registration—a lifeline for many startup teams.
But the reason for cancellation is more informative than the "schedule":
Insiders say that the tokenization standard for CLARITY Section 10505 has not yet been agreed upon, and the SEC fears that issuing a waiver first would squeeze the compromise space in Congress.
As a result, the tokenized innovation waiver was further delayed, and even Eleanor Terrett confirmed the pace would be pushed back.
Translate into adult language:
Congress waits for the SEC, don't steal the spotlight; the SEC waits for Congress to set the tone first. Both sides are staring at each other—whoever winks first takes the blame.
(3) The market is pricing in not positive news, but "institutional pause"
Stop believing the idea of "wait for good news in September after a short-term correction."
September 15 is just a procedural vote, not a bill taking effect; A Senate reconvening does not mean the differences have disappeared. TD Cowen's judgment is that even if the SEC follows the executive rules, consultation and revision will take more than half a year.
A more realistic chain is:
● Legislative → halts: startups cannot wait for a safe harbor → Compliance launch schedules are all at stake
● SEC rules halted → Tokenized stocks/bonds are in full swing
● XRP, an asset that "most depends on classification conclusions," is most reasonably stuck around $1, because the decision-making power does not lie with the market
The last sentence is my own judgment
The U.S. is not "regulatory progress," but rather that all three doors (congressional legislation / SEC rules / tokenization exemption) are closed in the same week.
The industry is left in the middle and exposed to the cold wind, unable to comfort itself with the idea that "all negative news has been exhausted"—because there isn't even a timetable for exhausting the negative energy.
The so-called "clear regulation" may have been a false proposition within this divisive structure.
What we can do is not guess September, but assume there will be no national law in 2026 and reverse-engineer whether our projects can survive.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike disagreements widened, #CLARITY表决待定 SEC rules were not implemented
#加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced?
$ETH $BTC $XAU Single-currency contract movements
$ACU If there is movement on the contract side, first distinguish whether new positions are advancing or old positions are withdrawing.
The 15M price and open interest have strengthened in tandem, with readings of +1.90%/+1.66%, clearly indicating new long positions. Active buying accounts for 47.5%. If buying can continue to push the price higher, this structure will have sustained value.I notice that many people, immediately after CPI/PPI data is released, look at just one figure and rush to long or short $BTC. This is the most common mistake. The reality is: CPI and PPI aren't just about being "high" or "low." What matters more is how they compare to expectations, the rate of decline, and the underlying components (core vs. headline, goods vs. services). This time, CPI rose 0.1% (with core at 2.5%) and PPI remained flat at 0% all cooler than forecast meaning less pressure onETH discussions have slowed down; let's first look at the denominator
This round of ETH numbers has a clear direction, but I care more about sample size. OKX Onchain OS recorded 21 mentions in one hour at 11:00 on August 14, with 33% bullish and 33% bearish, with discussion speed about 0.78 times the 24-hour average.
A few reposts can clearly rewrite the ratio, so "bull-bear close" only describes this batch of texts and cannot equate to how much capital is betting on the same direction. Regarding sources, X 20 times, 1 news article, also pay attention to whether the same news is being repeatedly spread.
Next, see if the tone can be maintained after sample expansion, then cross-confirm with transaction volume, funding rate, and on-chain activity, which is more reliable than chasing a single percentage.黄金维持高位，韩国央行重返市场，这条线比单纯“避险需求”更深。
韩国央行 13 年没买实体黄金，现在重新考虑增持，甚至研究黄金 ETF。原因很现实：美元资产太拥挤，地缘风险太多，外汇储备不能只押一种信用。黄金不付利息，但在这种环境下，不付利息反而成了优点——它不用听任何央行解释。
这对市场是一个信号。
散户买黄金，可能是怕跌；央行买黄金，往往是重新分配信任。它们不是在追涨，而是在把储备从单一美元体系里挪一点出来。
这也解释了为什么黄金高位还硬。真正支撑它的不是某一天 CPI，而是央行、ETF、避险资金一起在给“信用折价”投票。
BTC 可以讲数字黄金，但现在黄金先拿到了传统资金的信任票。
#黄金维持高位，韩国央行重返市场 Solana almost halted today. Not from a bug. From one hosting provider having a routing issue.
29% of staked $SOL went offline in minutes. The network needed just 4.5% more to cross the 33.3% threshold and stop finalizing blocks.
125M $SOL delinquent. 19.9M $SOL of headroom left before everything froze.
They fixed it in 10 minutes. Network didn't stop. But the fact that one provider could take down a quarter of the stake?
That's not a decentralization flex. That's a single point of failure with aThe most common misconception about OKB's fixed 21 million yuan is that having a small quantity does not necessarily mean chips are scarce
After the total supply of $OKB was fixed at 21 million, the market naturally linked it to $BTC.
According to OKX's official information, after the one-time burn, the OKB contract removed the functions of continued minting and active burning, with a total supply fixed at 21 million, and OKB becoming the native gas token of X Layer. OKX official statement
From a tokenomics perspective, this is indeed a significant change.
Holders no longer need to speculate about how much supply will increase in the future, and developers and users need OKB to pay gas when using X Layer. If ecosystem demand continues to grow, fixed supply will amplify the competition for limited tokens.
But "fixed total supply" and "market scarcity" are not the same thing.
BTC has a scarcity premium not only because of the cap of 21 million, but also because there are a large number of long-term holders, companies, ETFs, and institutional accounts worldwide. Many tokens rarely circulate after purchase, and the supply available for sale in the market is continuously limited.
Whether OKB is scarce depends on the holder structure, circulation depth, and actual usage.
If most people buy simply because supply decreases, once the market weakens, the so-called "scarce tokens" may still return to the market simultaneously. If X Layer achieves stable usage, users must hold a small amount of OKB long-term, and developers have deployment and operational needs, then scarcity will shift from price narrative to usage reality.
This is precisely why OKB cannot be judged to focus solely on 21 million.
A token can be in large quantities but scarce due to strong demand; or very small but lacking value due to lack of sustained buyers. Supply determines whether the ceiling is easily diluted, and demand determines whether the market truly needs to fight for chips.
For OKB, the most interesting thing is not whether there will be another burn, because the active burn mechanism has ended, but whether demand can take over after fixed supply.
Are stablecoins on X Layer continuously growing? Are there users willing to stay long-term? Does the app generate revenue? Besides gas, has OKB formed a deeper ecosystem of uses? These factors determine whether 21 million is a powerful economic model or a digital tag that spreads easily.
$BTC's 21 million has been validated by years of decentralized consensus, while $OKB's 21 million requires X Layer to validate it through growth.
Fixed supply can prevent future dilution, but it cannot stop existing holders from selling.
True scarcity has never been about "how many pieces there are," but "how many are there that no one is willing to sell." 🚨 $XAU $XAG
{future} (XAGUSDT)
— Liquidity alert
Within just a few hours, over $700 billion in reported market value evaporated from gold, silver, platinum, and palladium ⚠️
When multiple major assets are sold off simultaneously, it is important to focus on liquidity and leveraged positions.
One forced liquidation could trigger the next one—triggering chain sell-offs across markets 📉
👀 Pay close attention to $XAU, $XAG, and $BTC
{spot} (BTCUSDT)
and $ETH to look for further signs of stress.
⚠️ Before considering these data and the explanation of "forced liquidation" as confirmed market data, verification should be carried out. Please manage risk.
#XAU #XAG #BTC #ETHI'm Cige, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, and I've put forward a viewpoint: the valuation logic of crypto assets is changing, shifting from focusing on market cap and narrative to focusing on on-chain fees and protocol revenue. This shift is happening, but it has little impact on BTC's pricing logic, because BTC is a different species.
Revenue metrics are effective for ETH and DeFi because they generate cash flow
On-chain fees are tangible cash flow. Ethereum generated about $2.5 billion in fees in 2024, and with AI narratives and expectations of the Pectra upgrade heating up in 2025, this figure could be even higher. DeFi protocols like Uniswap, Aave, and Lido each generate quantifiable revenue. Uniswap's monthly fee income in July 2026 exceeded $140 million, with an annualized rate of over $1.6 billion. When valuing these assets, the market can use a cash flow discount model, which, even if imperfect, has at least a common reference frame.
BTC's pricing logic is completely different
BTC is not equity, it does not generate cash flow, has no protocol income, and does not distribute dividends. Its value comes from three sources: scarcity, ETF capital flows, macro interest rates, and the store-of-value narrative. Bitwise itself admits that for non-yielding assets like BTC, the market usually still prices around these traditional frameworks.
Historically, investors' valuations of BTC have evolved from exchange demand to macro asset and ETF demand. The core driver of BTC prices has always been the flow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs. In recent weeks, ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, with BTC rebounding from 62,000 to around 65,000—this is the most direct pricing logic.
The revenue metric will not replace BTC's store-of-value narrative, but it will change how the market prices crypto assets
ETH, DeFi, and platform assets will increasingly resemble traditional financial assets, valued by revenue, profit, and cash flow. BTC, on the other hand, will increasingly resemble digital gold, priced by scarcity, institutional allocation ratios, and macro interest rates. The two are not competitors, but two different valuation trajectories.
One data point shows that this divergence is accelerating: global debt has surpassed $400 trillion, and U.S. Treasury debt is approaching $40 trillion. When fiat credit continues to erode, BTC's store-of-value narrative does not fail due to lack of cash flow; instead, it is reinforced by the ongoing weakening of counterparty credit.
Conclusion
Revenue metrics will become core valuation tools for some crypto assets, especially protocols and platforms that generate sustained cash flow. But it will not replace BTC's store-of-value narrative, because BTC's underlying logic is completely different from these assets. For BTC, continuing to focus on ETF flows, macro interest rates, and institutional allocation ratios is far more meaningful than calculating protocol revenue.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Take a closer look. #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced? $BTC $ETH $SNDK From the beginning of this year until now, the Hormuz incident has increasingly turned into a battle of words
One said 100% control, the other said no ship could be considered without approval
Trump said the U.S. has 100% control over the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. has cleared mines, and the waterway is open. Iran directly fires back, saying the Revolutionary Guard Navy commander says the strait is currently closed and Iran maintains full control.
Both sides claim they have the final say, but in reality, the rules of navigation have not changed substantially. The marginal effect of this mutual shouting is diminishing; our ears have already grown calloused.
WTI$CL, after rising 10% over five trading days, fell 2.4% yesterday to $81.25. Brent$BZ also fluctuated around $87.
But while she says no, her body is honest.
The U.S. military has just announced the formation of its first multi-domain, multinational attack drone task force, Falcon Strike.
It has only been nine months since the U.S. military established its first dedicated drone strike unit, the Scorpion Strike. In December last year, it launched its first attack drone from a warship, and in July this year, it deployed unmanned systems in strikes on Iranian port facilities.
From Scorpion strikes to Falcon strikes, drone capabilities are iterating rapidly. This is not a short-term pressure posture; it is preparing for a more prolonged military presence.
Iran is not retreating either; the Supreme Leader's advisor has declared that if conditions are not met, the country will respond by escalating the conflict.
Both sides are ramping up, the game is escalating, not cooling down.
There's another thing worth mentioning. The IEA previously warned that global oil inventories are approaching a tipping point.
If the strait remains closed, inventories may fall below the minimum levels needed to keep the oil transportation system running. The market has been numb to the mouthpiece but is not immune to real supply disruptions.
Verbal talk can be numb, but inventory doesn't lie.
The strait remains closed, with oil prices fluctuating between 80 and 87 yuan. The market is waiting for a real variable—whether the agreement is finalized or supply truly cut off.
At that time, there could indeed be very serious consequences, such as the impact on global energy. We still hope for peace, as this is the only way to promote further development
$BTC $ETH $XAU #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, pressure from the US and Iran escalates Firmly bullish, I won't run this deal no matter what.
Average opening price 1891
$ETH is still repeatedly worn down within the 1870–1900 range, with significant hourly moving average suppression, so the short-term strength is indeed not high.
But 1870 was repeatedly held, and 1852 was never tested again. I tend to see it as a consolidation bottoming process.
First, stand on 1899, then look at 1928. Once 1928 passes, my target remains 2000.
US inflation data is moderate, the S&P 500 hit new highs intraday, and crypto remains at a low level—indicating capital hasn't flowed back yet, but overall risk appetite is not bad.
$OKB is still the steadiest one in my hands.
With a total supply locked at 21 million tokens, X Layer has made it the native gas token, and the long-term logic is no longer just about being an exchange platform coin.
$BEAT is still that very devilish breed—fierce when pulled, even more ruthless when washed.
About 21.25 million tokens were unlocked in August, and short-term supply pressure remains, so it can only wait for pullbacks and cannot blindly chase after big bullish candles.
$SNDK really took off, with the long-term target set by Investor Day pushing the stock price up by more than 15%.
Save that little bit of meat in the range for others to eat.
$ETH $OKB $BTC #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widened, with expectations for #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points heating up Web3 生态的最终形态，会是“社交+交易”一体化吗？
以前做交互：看行情用一个 App，交易用一个 App，聊天沟通又要切到 Telegram。
ACO 公链直接把这些场景打通了：
链上加密通讯 + 去中心化社交广场 + DEX 交易 + 美股 RWA + 节点质押分红，全在一条链上完成。
如果一个生态能满足你日常绝大多数 Web3 需求，你会愿意把资产和社交关系搬过来吗？#Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate financial pools are diverging. Currently, the prices of Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH) have stagnated, mainly due to three factors: structurally solidified capital flows, unreleased macro liquidity, and internal ecosystem conflicts.
Core reason: Institutional capital "siphoning" effect: Over 95% of institutional funds flowing into the crypto market (such as ETFs) are locked up in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Companies continue to hoard coins to push up BTC prices, while funds have not "spilled over" into Ethereum and altcoins as before, resulting in BTC rising alone while ETH weakly follows.
Ethereum ecosystem faces a "vampire attack": The network's success diverted mainnet users and transaction demands, but the L2 economic model was decoupled from the ETH mainnet, with users paying gas fees mostly using L2 tokens or stablecoins, weakening ETH's value capture ability; At the same time, yields were less attractive compared to US Treasuries, making ETH's positioning unclear.
Macro liquidity and supply-demand imbalance: The current market has not yet entered a full "liquidation cycle," and insufficient macro liquidity suppresses the overall performance of risk assets; Additionally, rising Ethereum exchange reserves indicate increased selling pressure, while declining Bitcoin reserves indicate stronger willingness to hold long-term, resulting in divergent supply-demand trends
The market is in a painful transition from "speculation-driven" to "utility-driven." Bitcoin dominates with a clear narrative of "digital gold," while Ethereum needs to wait for technological upgrades and large-scale institutional applications to reconstruct its value model, and may remain in a sideways state in the short term$HYPE|Why am I entering this long order?
I entered this $HYPE long order around 56.8.
Actually, the reasons for entering the market aren't complicated; they mainly look at three things:
First, the 1H structure is still relatively overweight.
The price rebounded from around 53.7, with clear highs and lows rising all the way, then broke through the previous oscillation zone, reaching a high of 58.47.
Although there was a pullback after a surge, it has not yet broken the previous upward structure.
Second, the area around 57 is the area I pay close attention to.
Currently, both the EMA10 and EMA20 are concentrated near 57. After a pullback, the price has returned to this area.
For me, this is more critical.
If the area around 57 can hold again, the previous resistance zone could turn into support.
So I chose to open a small position near 56.8 first, rather than waiting for the price to rise above 58 before chasing in.
Third, I value the profit-loss ratio more.
My stop loss is set near 55.814.
In other words, if the judgment of this transaction is wrong, I am willing to bear a limited loss.
But if the structure rises again, the previous high of 58.47 is only the first target, with a psychological threshold near 60 above.
So it's not about opening a long position just because you feel HYPE is about to rise.
Instead:
The upward structure is still on →, pulling back to key moving averages → near previous breakout zones→ with clear stop-loss levels→ and an acceptable P/P ratio.
Of course, the MACD has already weakened to some extent, so short-term pullback pressure still exists.
So I won't stubbornly carry this list.
If the 56 area cannot hold, especially if it falls below 55.814, the structure needs to be reassessed.
After trading for a while, I increasingly feel:
Opening a position isn't about predicting the future, but about trading a risk you can accept for a chance to prove your judgment in the market.
This $HYPE long order, continue to observe.
⟡ Act according to circumstances
⟡ Know when to stop
⟡ Probability believer
The above are personal transaction records only and do not constitute investment advice.SpaceX Review Today | After the Lock-Up Unlocked, the Market Begins to Reprice
SpaceX's latest public market data remains highly volatile; please refer to the latest pre-market or intraday quotes from brokers before publication. The company's Q2 revenue was about $7.8 billion, up over 90% year-on-year, but still recorded a net loss of about $541 million. A bigger variable is the lock-up unlock: about 912 million shares have gained trading rights, with a new unlocking window expected in late August, and the increase in circulating shares will continue to amplify volatility.
I didn't chase long positions during the sharp rally today. I took partial profits on positions I bought at previous lows, and only used small positions for observation. The $135 IPO issue price is an important dividing line; once it stabilizes, I'll look at around $150; If it surges and falls below $135, I'll reduce my position first and hold out without lifting the ban selling pressure.
SpaceX is now like a rocket that has just completed its first stage separation; its true altitude hasn't been determined yet, but the shock will definitely be significant. Do you care more about revenue growth, or are you worried that the upcoming unlocking chips will continue to hold the market down? If your position is light, take it slow
Now the positions are less heavy, and the pace is much more relaxed
Keep taking 1873 this long position, next stop 1900 will be reduced by a bit
$ETH Currently, the price is still fluctuating around 1880–1890, with the hourly chart showing no clear trend; it seems to be digesting previous fluctuations
The good news is that there have been several pullbacks near 1880, showing that the short-term market has not completely weakened
However, selling pressure above 1900 is also obvious, so I believe this market is seen as a consolidation recovery rather than an early bet on a big rally
$BTC Currently, the market is somewhat weak and fluctuating around 63,300, with the upper moving average continuously pressing down on the price. The 64,000 level remains unrecovered, making it difficult for mainstream coins to strengthen directly
As long as BTC no longer falls below previous lows, ETH will likely continue to test 1900
If BTC weakens again, ETH will find it hard to remain unaffected, and will have to leave some room for defense below 1880
The position has already been reduced, so there's no rush next
Wait for 1900 first, then reduce your position and continue to open up space, then decide how to take the remaining positions.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up Miners no longer compete with computing power but instead fall in love with electricity prices!
Riot Platforms led the way with an 83% rally this year, then dumped another 4,300 $BTC (about $270 million) to expand production. This isn't betraying BTC; it's a revival of the mining community.
(1) Event: After selling its tokens, Riot still holds 11,380 BTC, injecting funds into the expansion of its Rockdale factory in Texas—no borrowing, no equity dilution, cleaner balance sheet.
(2) Role switch: From a coin hoarder to a flexible asset manager, locking in returns to hedge downsides while retaining subsequent gains from BTC's rise.
(3) Industry logic rewrite: Maartunn from CryptoQuant put it bluntly: the core of mining competition has shifted from ASIC efficiency to power procurement, grid access, and data center operations. AI companies need power and computing power, mining companies have ready-made options, directly transforming into AI power + data center suppliers.
(4) Marathon and Core Scientific are also transforming through coin selling. The industry is shifting from a computing power race to more refined asset management.
(5) Risks: Building data centers, obtaining permits, signing long-term contracts with tech giants is more complicated than mining farms; Regulators also monitor energy consumption.
The valuation logic for mining stocks has changed, from Bitcoin β to AI infrastructure α. You need two legs to look at mining stocks: BTC holdings + AI implementation. Riot's 11,000 $BTC is its trump card.