Orbit Post Sitemap
Did a clay ox go into the sea?
PANews, September 24, 2025—According to Cointelegraph, Core DAO's first Bitcoin staking ETP has been listed on the London Stock Exchange.
Any news?The altcoin market is recovering, but not all coins have the same structure. I am particularly watching 3 names: ADA, SOL, and UNI. 🟢 SOL – THE STRONGEST SOL is showing a more positive structure than the other two coins. Support zone: 70–72 USD Resistance zone: 78–80 USD If SOL breaks out above 80 USD with good volume, the next target could be 82–84 USD, further up to 90 USD. Conversely, losing 70 USD will worsen the short-term structure. 🟡 UNI – WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION UNI is recovering but still needs a breakoutDon't always blame technology when you lose money; often it's just impatience and inability to control your actions.
Reviewing losing trades: Seeing the candlestick jump and then entering the market, the newly switched position wasn't heated and then cut again, afraid of missing every bullish candle. The result: I didn't make what I should have made, and I lost everything I shouldn't.
The difference between retail investors and professionals: ordinary people focus on whether they made money today, while professionals focus on this cycle, right?
The daily ups and downs are just market noise. What truly determines your account curve is whether you're on the trend side.
Three principles:
1.
Don't let emotions cloud your judgment; don't get carried away when prices rise, and don't panic when prices fall
2.
Stick to the main storyline's logic, and don't let the group call you for being single-sided
3.
Only act when the odds are high; at other times, wait quietly
Target:
$BTC Emotional anchor—only when it's stable can you play
$ETH Value recovery: slow but steady
$SOL The trend continues, and the leadership quality remains intact
TAOWLD AI has long-term logic, able to withstand turbulent periods
COREZEC is stagnating at a low level, waiting for rotation
Meme: Extremely small positions, don't get carried away
Finally: In trading, patience is more precious than anything else. Impulsive heavy positions are the fastest way to lose money, bar none.
From chasing the market to waiting for it. Only by taking this step can you truly enter the basics.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
$BTC $ETH $OKB 把 BTC 的短窗數字和全天平均放在一起，畫面會比單看熱門排名完整得多。 OKX Onchain OS 於 08 月 14 日 11:00 記錄到 BTC 一小時 46 次提及，其中 X 44 次、新聞 2 次；二十四小時總量為 1436 次。 換算後，最新一小時是長窗每小時平均的 0.77 倍，也就是比二十四小時的每小時平均低約 23%。這項比值只回答討論有沒有升溫，不回答買盤是否增加。若把它直接寫成突破訊號，就多走了一步資料沒有支持的推論。 語氣結構是另一條線。一小時偏多 30%、偏空 24%、中性約 46%，屬於「多空接近」；二十四小時則為偏多 30%、偏空 22%。短窗和長窗的差距，才是接下來值得追蹤的部分。 來源方面，BTC 目前幾乎全由 X 驅動。一則消息被大量轉發時，提及量會很快增加，但獨立資訊未必同比增加。熱門榜無法告訴我們每條文本是否來自不同參與者，也不會按帳戶影響力或資金規模加權。 長窗來源可以當作背景：BTC 二十四小時共有 X 1212 次、新聞 224 次。一小時的來源比例若突然大幅偏離，可能是新消息先在某個渠道爆發，也可能只是新聞更新還沒追上。兩種解釋都合理There's a new indicator — the BTC Seller Exhaustion Index!
It measures both low volatility and high losses; when both conditions are met, the indicator triggers a signal.
Currently: sellers have entered the "extreme exhaustion zone" (red area), which is the first time in this bear market cycle.
Comparing with historical data, similar situations have appeared in every past bear market cycle; sometimes more than once (marked as 1/2 in the chart).
When 1 appears, it may not be the absolute bottom of the bear market, but it is definitely within the bottom range.
Subsequently, if the price fluctuates or stays lower but the index does not go lower, I mark it as 2; historically, 2 has a higher certainty than 1.
However, the risk is that the price at 2 may be higher than at 1.
From these observations, we can conclude:
Those who have already built positions are not wrong; those who wait to build positions until 2 appears are also not wrong; but if 2 appears and you still hesitate to buy, you risk missing out on the entire bull market.Any BTC bought in 2025 is still at a loss now. So, as long as the 2025 chip decreases, except for wallet transfers, the rest is sold at a loss.
As of today, there are still 4.77 million BTC in 2025, down 41.5% from the peak in December last year.
The two distinct slope quantiles of the downward trend are: before February, there was a sharp decline, then a slight slowdown after February, but the slope still maintains a certain range.
This group is probably the largest supply side in the current market.
If we compare the data from 2024, 2023, and 2022, it's not hard to see that these chips with unrealized gains have basically passed the steep downward slope.
And the longer the time, the smaller the slope. From the chart, the curve slope after February almost becomes a straight line.
Even if the price drops further, the change in the number of chips won't be obvious. In other words, those that should be switched have been exchanged, and the rest remain untouched.
From the past two bear markets, during the 2022 bear bottom, the 21-year high chips dropped by 51%; During the 2018 bear bottom, the 2017-year high chips dropped by 62%;
If we only consider Kezhou, I personally think this round of bear bottom will be at most 50-60% (currently 41%), not counting the BTC bought in 2025 ETFs and MicroStrategy, most of which are locked in and unmoved.Breadth 2 up 13 down—what is this market really afraid of?
$BTC This hour: $63,380, 24h -0.55%, volume dropped overnight from +37% to -90.8%. FG 29 Fear, OI 109,900 unchanged, Funding +0.0091% neutral — leverage untouched, spot long positions withdrawn.
The real crack lies outside the snapshot: Neutrl's NUSD just suspended redemptions due to "opaque reserves." Small stablecoins started running away, only to crash into a wide-ranging crash of 2 up 13 times, creating a liquidity vacuum. This isn't about any single coin; it's that when confidence bottoms out, even the word "stable" starts to waver.
Frameworks that can be taken away: ground volume + breadth collapse + stablecoin credit seepage. Same frame = vacuum is accelerating, not stabilization. To truly stabilize, broad volume must first stop falling + volume returns to the average. Currently, neither is accounted for.
Blind spot: The snapshot doesn't show the extent of NUSD depegging, so it's hard to tell if there's a local run or a spread. Confirm whether there's a second stablecoin or pause + a break below 2 in the next round.
Do you believe in 'bottoming out' and buying a grab, or do you believe 'the crack is just beginning' and you're short on the position? Comments say choice, but I translate with reasons.
Crypto assets carry high risk. The above is purely personal nonsense and does not constitute investment advice.
#OKX星球 $BTC #稳定币风险 #避险抱团 #流动性枯竭🔥 A bizarre market situation! Inflation data cools across the board—why are BTC and ETH slow to rally?
$BTC $ETH
Recently, a strange and intriguing incident has occurred in the market. The most challenging part of the market isn't the sudden plunge, but the successive rollout of multiple positive factors, yet the crypto market remains lifeless, as if it has fallen into a deep sleep.
A review of recent key inflation data reveals a trend shift: CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, core CPI dropped to 2.5%; PPI performance was even weaker than market expectations, remaining flat month-on-month. According to past market patterns, continued cooling inflation means easing Fed rate hike pressure, and various risk assets should attract capital and emerge from a recovery rally.
But the reality has sharply shattered conventional expectations.
BTC briefly surged to 63,998, but the upward momentum abruptly stopped, and the price fell back to the 63,450 range; ETH hit the high of 1899.48 but was rejected, and the current price hovers around 1,886. After each slight rally, it quickly pulled back, making it impossible to hold the gains.
Looking deeper into the surface, the root of the current market contradictions does not lie at the macro level. Easing inflation data has indeed temporarily eliminated the risk of continued rate hikes, but this positive news cannot unexpectedly introduce incremental buying in the crypto market. Capital preferences have clearly diverged: the US AI sector and storage sector continue to absorb market risk funds, while BTC and ETH are completely unable to absorb the major positive news. At this stage, the dominant force in the market is held by holders selling off during the rebound, with no signs of active capital entering to buy shares.
Given this market structure, I won't blindly predict a trend reversal based on just one PPI data. Looking ahead, focus on two key signals:
First, BTC needs to firmly hold above the 64,000 level to prevent such rapid surges and plunges;
Second, ETH successfully reclaimed the 1900 level, holding support during the pullback and not breaching.
If the two major coins fail to break through key resistance levels for a long time, the positive effects released by CPI and PPI will only provide temporary support for the market, at most providing a brief breathing room, and will not be enough to trigger sustained rallies.
The most tormenting trend in the trading market is never a sudden drop caused by bad news. It's that the macro winds keep coming in, while your holdings remain sideways and stagnant, watching opportunities in other sectors emerge.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen $BTC $ETH Chip stocks led the gains, with Korean stocks rebounding over 22% in ten days—a wave most resembling a "revenge recovery after reducing leverage."
Previously, Korean stocks fell too hard, with AI storage chains like Samsung and SK Hynix being smashed together, and many thought the fundamentals were bad. But now it seems more like holdings are too crowded, margin buying is too heavy, and sentiment is too high. Once foreign capital and institutional selling pressure stabilizes, and AI memory demand is unconfirmed, money will immediately come back to grab it.
This rebound is fierce and easily misjudged.
It shows that AI hardware logic is still alive, but that doesn't mean risk has disappeared. A 22% rise in ten days is partly due to fundamental recovery, partly from short buying and short-selling funds chasing in. The faster the rise, the more you need to see if profits can keep up later.
I feel like the Korean stock market is like a car that just sped off a sudden brake and accelerated again. The engine isn't broken, but the people in the car are all emotionally heavy, and even the slightest curve causes it to sway.
#芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 闪迪最新投资者日落地，市场焦点全部落在公司抛出的中长期经营蓝图之上，超预期的盈利指引直接带动股价大幅冲高，同时也留给市场不少分歧空间。
公司给出2028‑2030财年明确目标：营收维持中高双位数增速，非GAAP毛利率目标约80%，调整后自由现金流利润率瞄准50%；完成产能投资之后，计划将全部富余现金返还股东。支撑这套高盈利目标的核心逻辑是AI推理浪潮，管理层预判到2030年企业级闪存市场规模可达1.2泽字节，KV缓存等场景拉动大容量高性能NAND需求持续扩容。
为平滑存储行业固有的周期波动，闪迪大力推进长期供货协议NBM模式，锁定头部云厂商订单，计划2028年有三分之二的比特出货量被长约覆盖，以此稳住营收与盈利的确定性；技术端推进BiCS系列迭代、HBF高带宽闪存研发，抢占AI存储增量市场。
利好叙事已经充分定价，但隐患同样清晰。80%毛利率目标处在行业极高水位，想要兑现高度依赖AI算力需求持续旺盛、长协订单稳定落地。一旦云厂商资本开支收缩，或是SK海力士等对手大规模扩产引发供给过剩，高盈利预期就有落空风险。
行情层面短期情绪已经被指引点燃，但后续股价很难单纯依靠故事上行，估值能否站稳，要看接下来季度财报能不能一步步印证长期蓝图。赛道大逻辑向好，但高位之下波动会明显放大。$BTC $ETH $SNDK In this 30-year Treasury auction, buyers have started bidding 📉
$25 billion was successfully sold, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.39 times not bad, and a 0.4 basis point tail is far from collapsing.
What truly deserves attention is the bid yield of 5.216%—the highest since 2001.
The market is not unwilling to buy U.S. Treasuries, but rather willing to buy, provided the U.S. offers higher interest rates.
Behind it are still the same old issues: fiscal deficits, U.S. Treasury supply, inflation risks, and uncertainty about long-term interest rates.
So even if the Fed cuts rates in the future, it may only be short-term cuts first, and the 30-year yield may not be willing to follow suit. Long-term yields remain at high levels, putting pressure on the valuation of risk assets ⚠️
What really matters next: whether auctions consistently produce larger tails, and whether the proportion of primary dealers forced to take over continues to rise.
The first is a reminder; continuous deterioration is the signal.$OKB 我觉得大行情要来了。大行情来自多重趋势共振，可拆为三幕： 第一幕：$BTC率先启动。政策宽松时机构优先配置，因其认知度最高、流动性最强，是传统资金最易理解的门户。 第二幕：$ETH接棒。当焦点转向链上价值，稳定币、RWA、AI Agent交易均依赖其基础设施，金融活动上链将重估$ETH。 第三幕：生态资产如$OKB，机会在真实需求——用户增长、应用扩张、Gas消耗，而非稀缺叙事。 紧盯数据：$BTC看ETF资金、机构配置、宏观流动性；$ETH看稳定币规模、RWA进展、链上活跃度；$OKB看X Layer生态、用户量、应用收入。风险上，$BTC惧宏观收紧，$ETH需价值反馈，$OKB防预期透支。 理想情形：政策引资金，AI创需求，稳定币成基建——$BTC吸金，$ETH承载金融，生态资产争执行效率。大周期非单一热点，政策、技术、资本共振，才能从炒作走向重估，高度由数据定。 三阶段逻辑你认可吗？$BTC、$ETH、$OKB如何配？还是黑马在新赛道？欢迎各位老师一起交流。#高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争 #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ 转发！The sharp volatility in South Korea's storage stocks is essentially a tragicomedy orchestrated by leveraged directors.
The July plunge seemed shocking, with KOSPI's monthly plunge the largest since the financial crisis, but peeling off the surface, the underlying AI narrative still remained. HBM supply outstripped supply, capital spending by giants did not subside, and what truly collapsed was the fragile confidence built up by leverage. Tightening margins was like toppling the first domino; forced liquidation swept away overly greedy chips, and circuit breakers became the norm during that period.
However, the market's memory was short-lived. In just over ten trading days, the same batch of funds made a comeback, with the index rebounding more than 20%. Samsung and SK Hynix led the gains, Micron rose overnight, and South Korea immediately followed suit. This familiar rhythm was dazing: it was like entering the A-share market.
But the problem is, a rebound does not equal a reversal. This year, foreign investors have withdrawn from the Korean stock market on an astonishing scale, and occasional inflows back are just a drop in the bucket. In this current market, sentiment recovery and oversold recovers account for the majority, not fundamental repricing. Once volume surges at high levels and stagnates, those chasing the high could easily become new trapped investors.
#韩股十日反弹逾22%, chip stocks led the gains The chart for xSKHY/USDT shows consolidation around $163.91 (-1.70%) following a rebound from the $XSKHY $162.80 low. Price action trades just under moving average resistance (MA5: $164.12, MA10: $163.98, MA20: $164.20), while MACD (+0.11) indicates mild positive momentum attempting to build. Reclaiming $164.20 enables buyers to target $166.17 or higher. A failure to hold above $163.90 risks a retest of $162.80 and $151.19. Short-term trading range: $162.80–$164.20.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #OKX.ai $SNDK Missed about $1.2 million in potential profits, a storage whale liquidated long positions in SKHX and SNDK and then reversed to short SNDK at 10 times
SK Hynix and SanDisk rose simultaneously from last night to early morning. A whale address (0x0c4...) Before the 1st, it successively liquidated 2,908.3 SKHX and 2,323.9 SNDK long positions, with a total actual profit of about $186,000. Based on this morning's high, if you continue holding, the profit from both trades could have reached about $1.385 million, about $1.2 million less than actual profit, and the missed gain is about 6.5 times the profits already taken. SKHX was liquidated at an average price of $1,022.9, with an actual profit of about $17,000; This morning, it once rose to $1,207.4, missing out on about $537,000. SNDK was liquidated at an average price of $1,278, with an actual profit of about $169,000; This morning, it once rose to $1,563.3, missing out on about $663,000. The total liquidation amount for the two positions was approximately $5.945 million. After clearing the positions, SKHX and SNDK rose about 18.0% and 22.3% respectively from their highest average selling prices. The whale has not yet recovered its long position, and has now turned to short 2,524.2 units of SNDK at a 10x per-sector position, with a position value of about $3.902 million, an average opening price of $1,553.2 per position, a gain of about $18,000, and a liquidation price of $1,936 $SNDK #闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
The recent rise in the storage sector is indeed not just speculation.
✔ AI servers continue to drive demand for high-bandwidth memory, server memory, and enterprise-grade SSDs, while manufacturers shift more capacity toward high-margin products, causing general storage supply to remain tight.
✔ Both SK Hynix and Micron are seeing rapid growth, and SanDisk set very aggressive long-term profit targets on investor days, prompting funds to revalue the entire storage sector.
However, although storage prices are still rising, the growth rate has clearly slowed compared to the first quarter. In the medium term, high-bandwidth memory and server memory remain relatively strong, but by the second half of 2027, flash memory may gradually loosen as new capacity is released, and the entire sector will no longer rise uniformly.
I shorted SanDisk at 1542, mainly following a sharp rise and pullback. Currently, SanDisk's short-term trend remains strong. During regular trading, it closed at 1528, then returned to around 1570 after hours, with trading volume significantly expanding. Therefore, this short position can only be treated as a short-term position for now, not blindly adding positions.
✔ 1580–1600 is the key resistance zone
✔ Only when it falls below 1520 can short positions truly take the initiative
✔ Look for 1480 first, then around 1450
✔ If volume increases and it holds above 1600–1610, I will immediately stop my losses and stop holding positions
My judgment is that the medium-term trend in the storage industry is not yet over, but SanDisk's single-day gains have been too large, so there is indeed short-term demand for a pullback. The most important thing now is not to guess the top, but to hold the failure level and wait for price confirmation.With the news of API interface price adjustments reaching up to 500%, the AI inference computing power side is shifting from continuous subsidies to cost pass-through, and the market's valuation framework for underlying computing assets is being rewritten.
Public reports show that various model services are facing price increases ranging from 100% to 500%, and the spike in computing power terminal prices quickly spills over into the R&D bills of midstream and downstream applications.
The central bank launched a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase to release medium-term liquidity, but the easing of macro funds is difficult to offset the rigid rise in marginal hardware costs such as chips and electricity.
This round of price adjustments pushes inflationary pressure on hardware directly to the application layer, while computing power inflation on enterprises directly squeezes the profit margins of middle-layer products that rely on a single model.
If the core call volume drops by less than 15% within two weeks after the price increase, and cloud service providers gradually reduce free quotas, $CL and other targets with self-developed computing resources will establish stronger premium capabilities; Conversely, if peers continue to provide substantial subsidies, the premium is expected to fall rapidly.
If price increases cause developers to migrate massively to competing products, a sharp drop in actual call volume will drag down revenue and suppress procurement demand across the supply chain, and the expansion of preferences for related computing power infrastructure will also cease when call data deteriorates.
The market's judgment that computing power is entering a systemic inflation cycle depends on whether downstream can absorb real costs. If subsequent calls fall beyond the threshold, the entire pricing revaluation logic will be disproven.
The most noteworthy variable to watch in the next seven days is the actual retention rate of mainstream model calls after the specific price adjustment takes effect on August 17.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% #高盛收购Neos, crypto ETFs are shifting to earnings competition$APR I'll share my own perspective, everyone feel free to listen. Open to discussion.
The day before yesterday, the market maker pumped over 110%, a beneficial start. The hype rose, which is equivalent to the market maker fronting funds for retail investors.
Starting yesterday, there was a double kill of bulls and bears: the opening was pumped to 0.63, then smashed down to 0.42, then pulled back to 0.58. He killed three waves of people—two waves chasing the rise and killing the fall, and another wave was short-term heavy leverage positions.
Today, the tactic changed, with sideways trading occupying 80% of the time. I've been thinking about what the market maker is waiting for during this sideways movement. This doesn't look like a shakeout tactic. It's deliberately holding at a high level waiting for people to get on board. Then the midday double kill of bulls and bears played out.
Tomorrow, I speculate there's a high probability it will break a new high and then rise again. There are three reasons: First, on the big trend weekly K-line level, it has already broken through the super trend. The probability of a pullback to test the new high is very high. Second, the fee has been maintained well, indicating a relatively balanced bull-bear ratio. With balance, the market maker can't make much profit; either they smash the market to reduce hype and grab some small profits to break the path, or continue pumping until the bull-bear ratio becomes unbalanced and then kill another wave. I lean towards a pump. Third, traditionally, the market maker's method of unloading is to first sell part, then sideways wait for the bears to get on board, then pump again to reduce the cost of the pump. Looking at the K-lines these two days, the smash wasn't very deep and was quickly pulled up after smashing. This shows the market maker first planted an idea for retail investors that it's either not unloading or there will be large fluctuations. So when they really unload, with the previous groundwork, there will be a continuous stream of bulls taking over... like LAB's tactic.The Fed remains inactive, so why have BTC and ETH still developed two different logics?
On July 29, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.5%–3.75%, and notably, three members wanted a 25 basis point hike. For the crypto market, this signal was far from easy: liquidity did not immediately turn to easing, and inflationary pressures had not completely disappeared.
But the same macro environment affects $BTC and $ETH differently. BTC increasingly resembles an asset hedged against long-term monetary uncertainty; as long as the market is concerned about fiscal, inflation, or fiat purchasing power, it has its own narrative space. ETH, on the other hand, is more like a productive asset that generates on-chain yield while bearing both technical and ecological risks. The higher the interest rate, the more institutions repeatedly compare ETH staking yields with Treasury yields.
So now, when observing these two assets, you can't just ask "When will the Fed cut rates?" For BTC, it depends on whether funds continue to treat it as a cross-cycle reserve; For ETH, it depends on whether on-chain yields, stablecoins, and DeFi activities can cover holding risks. The former sells scarcity, the latter sells network cash flow.
This also explains why, when macro negative news emerges, BTC is more resilient than ETH; And once market trading liquidity expands, ETH may show stronger resilience. They are two asset models within the same crypto market.
$BTC is responsible for answering "Where should the money be stored?" $ETH is responsible for answering "What can money be used for when stored on-chain?"$ETH $BTC $ETH Let's talk about an unusual phenomenon: CPI and PPI have cooled down, so why aren't BTC and ETH rising? The most unusual thing these past two days isn't the decline, but that all the good news has arrived, yet the market still looks sleepy. CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, while core CPI fell to 2.5%; The PPI was even lower than expected, with the month-on-month drop to zero. According to the usual script, with inflation cooling and easing interest rate pressure, risk assets should at least respond. But what about now? BTC reached an intraday high of 63,998, with the current price returning to around 63,450; ETH peaked at 1899.48, current price is 1886. Rush in, and there's no follow-up immediately. This shows that the current problem is not macro-level. Macro factors have only temporarily relieved the pressure to "continue raising rates," but it has not brought new active buying to the crypto world. US stocks, AI, and storage chains are driven by risk appetite, while BTC and ETH can't even catch the positive news. On the market, traders are "some exiting on the rally," not "funds rushing to buy." So I won't call for a reversal just because of a single PPI. Next, let's look at two validations: whether BTC can effectively reclaim 64,000, rather than just crashing and then dropping; Can ETH recover 1,900 and hold firm on the rebound? If you can't regain your position, the positive CPI and PPI will at most give the market a breather. The truly tough market never comes from bad news crashing down, but when good news arrives, the coins you hold still refuse to rise. #CPI与PPI同步降温, interest rate hikesSOL is now around 75.8u, basically unchanged over the day, just a little below the moving average. To give the conclusion: I don't chase this level, mainly observe, and if I have positions, I won't add more.
This is no longer just a sideways trading issue; it's a problem of sentiment and capital contradicting each other. The sentiment side is truly warm: KOLs sing a lot each day, social sentiment scores above 7.3, news still supports payments and tokenized trading with a bunch of positive news on the market, and technically, MACD supports the bulls, looking very likely to make a move.
But don't rush, here's the key point—real money is moving in the opposite direction. Large spot orders saw a net outflow of 200,000 U within 3 hours, with 12 K-lines showing no positive outlets; all are being sold outward; Active buying accounts for only 30% of the contract trade, and the active long-short ratio has been pushed down to 0.45, with selling pressure clearly suppressing buyers. To put it simply: many are calling for more, but very few are paying money. Even leverage is being withdrawn, margin lending has dropped by nearly half within 12 hours, and long positions have slightly decreased.
The position is also awkward. The above 77.5-78 levels were last week's resistance, while the 74.5 below level has decent support. Now it's stuck in the middle, a grueling zone with no volume on the rise and support on the downturn. The sentiment remains, but the strength to take over is clearly insufficient. Rushing in at this time is just carrying the sedan chair for those at the previous highs, with average cost-performance ratio.
My approach is summed up in one word: wait. Either wait for the pullback near 74.5 and when large spot orders turn positive again before considering buying on dips, or wait for volume to stabilize above 78 before chasing. If you can't make a last-minute profit, just let it go. SOL's foundation this round is solid, but before the data is confirmed, I'd rather be a coward than a buyer.
#sol $SOLThe U.S. stock market just triggered a massive short squeeze—and crypto followed.
Cooling jobless claims and PPI strengthened rate-cut hopes, sending Treasury yields lower and forcing heavily shorted tech and storage names into aggressive covering.
The move then spilled into crypto:
$BTC and $ETH found support, with ETH showing stronger resilience from ETF flows.
Stock-linked tokens like $xSNDK and $xSPCX moved sharply higher, while small-cap memes mostly saw short-lived speculative pumps.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets The core driver of the decline: triple stress resonance
(1) Whale sales trigger selling pressure (maximum pressure)
On-chain data shows that large holders known as "whales" have reduced the amount of Bitcoin they hold over the past week, while the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has increased. This flow of funds usually signals a price decline.
(2) Buying has completely dried up, and spot transactions hit a six-year low
Daily spot Bitcoin trading volume has dropped to $1.19 billion, the lowest level since 2019. The simultaneous cooling of CPI and PPI was positive, but BTC "hovered around 63,000" and did not rise—"what the market lacks is not good news, but new money willing to enter." Rekt Capital issues a core warning: Bitcoin buying momentum in August has clearly weakened, and the key support level at the 200-week moving average is being shaken.
(3) Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and macroeconomic uncertainty
Cleveland Fed President Hamack publicly maintains a hawkish stance and continues to support further rate hikes. CME rate futures show a 78% probability of keeping rates unchanged in September, but the New York Fed announced a suspension of reserve management on U.S. Treasury purchases, tightening marginal liquidity in the short term. US-Iran negotiations stalled, and Strait of Hormuz risk premiums have risen. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #标普收盘再创新高 8,000 point expectation has risen $BTC $ETH $SOL August is highly likely to be a trend, because both macro (Fed) and liquidity (ETFs) catalysts are in place, and technically, it's a must-choose direction. But the specific direction depends on the macro data released in August and ETF flows:
If ETF outflows restart + macro data is hot → falls below 60K and tests 57,717, in extreme cases it will hit 50,000–55,000 within the month or September
If ETF inflows accelerate + the Fed turns dovish→ it can rise above 66,700 and rebound toward 70K–72K
If neither is unclear→ the 60K–66K range will continue, postponing the direction decision until the September Fed meeting
Regarding "can it reach around 50,000 this year": based on the 63% probability of forecasting the market, Bloomberg analysts' bearish views, and the continuous ETF outflows, the probability of seeing 50,000–55,000 within the year is real and not low. However, distinguishing between "needle test" and "stabilizing at 50,000" — the former has a significantly higher probability than the latter. Even if it falls to 50,000, most institutions (Zhaqi, JPMorgan, Bernstein) still believe the market will rebound to the 100,000–150,000 USD range by year-end, with 50,000 more likely to be a "golden pit" rather than a "new platform."
⚠️ It must be reminded: all the above analyses are scenario simulations based on current observable data, not deterministic forecasts. Bitcoin's daily fluctuations of 5%–10% are normal, so leverage positions must be well controlled and risk controlled. A 63% probability of forecasting the market also means there is a 37% chance it will not reach 50,000 within the year.
The three signals to watch most right now: weekly ETF flow data, macro data released in August, and Bitcoin's reaction to the $60,000 and $57,717 low. If any of these three show clear signals, the direction is clear.
Do crypto enthusiasts still have the patience to wait?
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened ETF capital flow reverses: BTC is bleeding, ETH/SOL takes over
$BTC 63,400–63,900 fluctuates, flat after CPI, stock-based competition.
ETF data for August 12:
🔴 BTC Spot ETF: Net outflow of 61.1 million (FBTC -46.8 million / IBIT -14.3 million)
🟢 ETH spot ETF: net inflow of 7.4 million
🟢 SOL Spot ETF: Net inflow ~9 million
The previous day's structure reversed directly—previously BTC inflows and ETH outflows, now the opposite.
Spot Side:
$BTC Net outflow pressure continues
$ETH Short-term improvement but still cautious
$SOL ETFs have relatively stabilized the market
BNB, DOGE, and $LINK continued their capital-attracting effect the previous day, but today's momentum weakened
$TRX and other highly liquid assets still saw sporadic inflows
Funding Channels:
BTC bleeding → ETH/SOL relay → a few highly liquid counterfeit rotations
There are still insufficient signs of comprehensive rollout to small- and mid-cap counterparts.
Judgment:
Institutions fine-tuning positions + limited rotation of existing assets is not a signal to start a trend.
Two key points to consider:
$BTC Can it rise above 64,500 with increased volume?
$ETH Can this wave of ETF inflows continue and drive increased trading volume?
The overall market remains sideways, with funds likely moving back and forth between mainstream and a few highly liquid stocks, making it immature for a full launch of counterfeits.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
#CLARITY延期, the SEC plans to advance regulatory rule supplementation
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets SanDisk's $SNDK soared 30% in just 4 days, and on Investor Day, it jumped 15%. Confidence among crypto users was restored.
But I want to say: the investment day is over, everyone should take profits as soon as possible. #闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
1. The recent gains have been catalyzed in four words: Investor Day. Yesterday, SanDisk played three cards, and the market immediately surged: long-term target gross margin of 80%, operating profit margin 75%; Half of the capacity next year, two-thirds of the year after, fully booked, locking in $93.9 billion in revenue; Plus $15.5 billion for share buybacks.
2. Of course, it's also closely related to the sector's popularity. Samsung, SK Hynix, Nvidia...... The entire storage sector is soaring together, and SanDisk is one of the fastest-flying stocks.
3. After all, SanDisk's fundamentals are indeed strong, and its long-term logic is very solid.
In the past, storage stocks depended on spot prices; now SanDisk is transforming itself into a company with a guaranteed minimum income of 93.9 billion yuan, ≈ the next four to five years of basic income. This is true evolution, not just empty promises.
4. It's clearly all good news, so why am I telling everyone to run quickly?
Because the price has risen too high! Expectations have been overdrawn too much. From February last year until now, the price has increased 28 times over 15 months. The current price already accounts for the next two years' performance. What good news can there become?
Look at Micron $MU: its Q2 earnings were equally explosive and explosive, but because expectations were too high, it still fell 8% after hours. SanDisk is clearly stagnant now, with limited upside potential, but the risk of a pullback is significant. I suggest you take profits first.BTC vs ETH：一个被低估的流动性真相
市值：BTC 1.27万亿 vs ETH 2284亿，差 5.6倍
成交额：BTC 219.9亿 vs ETH 70.2亿，只缩到 3.1倍
这个落差比排名更有意思。
BTC越做越像"配置盘压舱石"——买它的人未必天天换仓，涨得慢时像资产表，涨得快时像风险情绪总闸门。被ETF、宏观对冲和美元流动性牵着走。
ETH市值小一截，换手却更硬。
身上同时挂着DeFi、L2、质押收益和山寨轮动预期，利好利空都被交易盘放大。
所以：
增量进场，BTC负责"开门"，ETH负责"把波动做厚"。
ETH的矛盾：
市值不够大，稳定性天然弱于BTC；
可成交占比更高，证明它不是边缘资产。
趋势确认，ETH更容易追涨加速；
美元反弹、美债收益率抬头，它也更容易先被砸出深坑。
SOL这类高Beta会顺着ETH情绪外溢，但定价锚先看ETH能不能接住资金。
眼下核心不是"ETH便不便宜"，而是市场到底由配置资金还是交易资金掌权。
前者占优 → BTC继续吸走确定性溢价；
后者回归 → ETH的弹性会从成交活跃度里跑出来。
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets $LAB Today (August 14), 16.23 million tokens were unlocked, accounting for about 1.6% of the total supply; The price has dropped significantly.
Key points to unlock today
- Quantity and share: 16.23 million unlocked, accounting for about 1.6% of total supply
- Unlocking Entity: Investor tokens, which are arranged monthly
- Monthly Rhythm: From August 14 to December 14, 16.23 million tokens are unlocked each month
- Price performance: As of today, the 24-hour drop is about 19.40%, with a trading price of around $0.09
- Intraday Trend: Earlier today, it once dropped more than 10%
- Unlock Scale vs. Market Cap Comparison: Based on current market cap, this unlock accounts for about 5.0% of the total
- Subsequent supply pressure: In the coming months, unlocks of the same scale will occur each month, so supply pressure will persist
Why is the market so sensitive?
- Highly concentrated token: The top 100 wallets control about 99.86% of the supply, and a few large-cap addresses can significantly influence the market
- Manipulation and trust risks: There are allegations that insiders control over 95% of the circulating supply, and there are issues such as over-the-counter trading and manipulation by centralized exchanges
- Previous clause changes: Previously accused of unilaterally altering investor lock-up clauses, damaging trust
- Fragile liquidity: Insufficient depth, large selling pressure can easily trigger sharp fluctuations
- Historical volatility: June saw a plunge of about 77% within two hours
- Lessons from previous experiences: $BEAT Liquidity dried up rapidly due to lost confidence
What do holders do?
- Controlling Positions and Leverage: Under the background of continuous unlocking and concentrated holdings, prioritize reducing exposure and leverage to avoid liquidity shocks that could amplify losses
- Pay attention to on-chain flows: Focus on the movements of large addresses after unlocking to be alert for concentrated selling signals
- Combining fundamentals: The platform has generated a certain amount of trading volume and protocol revenue; if growth can offset selling pressure or provide a recovery opportunity; However, ongoing verification of $LAB is required [On-chain Indicator Simulation: BTC's Classic 'Three-Line Crossing' Endgame Replayed]
Looking at BTC history, the relationship between STH Realized Price (short-term holder cost), LTH Realized Price (long-term holder cost), and the overall network Realized Price (actual cost) has always been the hardest on-chain signal of qualitative cycle bottoms.
Looking back at the three deep bear bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022, the market followed a completely consistent liquidation path:
1. The coin price continues to fall sharply, forcing short-term chasing chips to cut losses and exit, accelerating the STH cost line downward;
2. Surrender units are gradually shifting to long-term capital, and LTH cost lines are slowly rising;
3. Ultimately, the three lines formed a severe convergence and completed a death cross/adhesion crossover (STH falling below LTH/total network cost), marking the complete turnover of high-level chips and the official establishment of the iron bottom of the cycle.
Looking ahead to 2026, although the three cost lines are rapidly approaching, a final death cross has yet to form and intersect. The underlying logic of on-chain games has never changed—only when short-term holders experience thorough surrender and turnover at floating losses can the long-term bottom structure truly be solidified.
Based on past cycles, the three lines are very likely to repeat their historical trend and complete the final crossover. Enduring loneliness and paying attention to the final bottoming signal when the crossover completes is often the starting point for a new bull market to gather momentum. PPI below expectations is short-term positive but don't expect a sharp rise
July PPI rose 0% month-on-month (expected 0.2%) and core PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month (expected 0.3%), both below expectations. Production-side inflation has not accelerated, consistent with the narrative of cooling CPI.
For the Federal Reserve: further reduces the need for short-term rate hikes. But note, the PPI fell from -0.3% in June back to 0%, not a full deflation, just a mild recovery. Core PPI remained flat, indicating that structural pressure after excluding energy and food products has not worsened, but it also cannot be said to have cooled significantly.
For the crypto market:
Short-term positive but limited strength—CPI has already priced in expectations of "inflation easing," while PPI is just a follow-up confirmation, not a surprise.
$BTC: Around 63,400, there was already a waiting direction. PPI falling short of expectations gives bulls some confidence, but the resistance zone between 64,000 and 64,500 won't be easily broken just because of this figure. If US stocks open higher tonight, BTC may use the momentum to reach 64,000, but if volume is insufficient, it will still pull back.
$ETH: Follow the lead. 1900 remains a key threshold, and the PPI boost will at most allow it to fluctuate a bit longer in the 1880-1920 range. For ETH to strengthen independently, it needs to see capital flow back into the DeFi/L2 ecosystem, rather than relying on macro data handouts.
Key reminder: Don't rush in just because you see "below expectations." The market has now become numb to "cooling inflation." The real way BTC breaks through 64,500 is either a series of large inflows from ETFs or dovish Federal Reserve officials. PPI only makes bears hesitant to sell for now, but it doesn't mean bulls have momentum to rally.
Tonight, let's look at the risk appetite transmission after the US stock market opens. If the US market doesn't buy in, BTC will still bottom out between 63,000 and 63,500.
Strategy: Short-term bullish but not overwhelmed. Reduce positions if resistance near 64,000, and set strict stop-loss if it falls below 63,000. If you have no positions, wait for a clear direction; don't chase gains after the data.
$BTC $ETH
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#CLARITY延期, the SEC plans to advance regulatory rule supplementation
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets I think a major market rally is coming. The big rally comes from multiple trend resonances, which can be broken down into three acts:
Act One: $BTC Take the Lead. During policy easing, institutions prioritize allocation, as they have the highest recognition and strongest liquidity, making them the easiest gateway for traditional capital to understand.
Act Two: $ETH Taking the Baton. As the focus shifts to on-chain value, stablecoins, RWAs, and AI Agent transactions all rely on its infrastructure, and financial activity on-chain will revaluation $ETH.
Act Three: Ecosystem assets like $OKB have opportunities in real demand—user growth, app expansion, gas consumption, not scarcity narratives.
Focus on data: $BTC focus on ETF funds, institutional allocation, and macro liquidity; $ETH on stablecoin scale, RWA progress, and on-chain activity; $OKB on the X Layer ecosystem, user base, and app revenue. On the risk front, $BTC fear of macro tightening and $ETH need for value feedback, $OKB to prevent anticipated overdraws.
Ideal scenario: policies attract capital, AI creates demand, stablecoins become infrastructure—$BTC attracts capital, $ETH supports finance, and ecosystem assets compete for execution efficiency. The big cycle is not a single hotspot; only when policy, technology, and capital resonate can the price move from speculation to revaluation, with the height determined by data.
Do you agree with the three-stage logic? How should $BTC, $ETH, and $OKB be balanced? Or is the dark horse in the new track? Feel free to join the discussion. #高盛收购Neos, crypto ETFs shift to earnings competition. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? On October 11, 2025, the crypto world experienced the most brutal deleveraging in history: Bitcoin plunged 13.5% in a single day, 1.6 million people were liquidated, and $19.1 billion instantly evaporated.
The previous year, the market was pushed up to $126,000 by ETF funds, Trump's trading calls, and the "four-year cycle" superstition, but what sustained the bull market was not ecosystem explosions, but a chain of layers of harvesting—VC Coin trapped retail investors with a 5% circulation rate, President Coin dropped 400x in three days and another 95%, and a certain husband-and-wife firm used insider information to precisely dump the market. When the last buyer entered, the fireworks were over, leaving only a mess.
Now BTC is bottoming out at $60,000, which is precisely the premise for a restart: if it doesn't fall too deep, veteran players won't be eliminated; if leverage is unclear, new funds won't dare to enter. In the past six months, 2.4 million Bitcoins have accumulated in the $61,000 to $65,000 range, accounting for 12% of circulating supply—chips have shifted from speculators to staunch holders.
Although market confidence has been shattered, fear itself is also creating opportunities. This crash has cleaned out the high FDV bubble, driven out the speculative president, shattered cyclical superstitions, and forced the crypto world from "telling stories" back to the starting point of "settling scores."
To restart, start with zero. It's harsh, but also fair.
$BTC Any BTC bought in 2025 is still at a loss now. So, as long as the 2025 chip decreases, except for wallet transfers, the rest is sold at a loss.
As of today, there are still 4.77 million BTC in 2025, down 41.5% from the peak in December last year.
The two distinct slope quantiles of the downward trend are: before February, there was a sharp decline, then a slight slowdown after February, but the slope still maintains a certain range.
This group is probably the largest supply side in the current market.
If we compare the data from 2024, 2023, and 2022, it's not hard to see that these chips with unrealized gains have basically passed the steep downward slope.
And the longer the time, the smaller the slope. From the chart, the curve slope after February almost becomes a straight line.
Even if the price drops further, the change in the number of chips won't be obvious. In other words, those that should be switched have been exchanged, and the rest remain untouched.
From the past two bear markets, during the 2022 bear bottom, the 21-year high chips dropped by 51%; During the 2018 bear bottom, the 2017-year high chips dropped by 62%;
If we only consider Kezhou, I personally think this round of bear bottom will be at most 50-60% (currently 41%), not counting the BTC bought in 2025 ETFs and MicroStrategy, most of which are locked in and unmoved.Still drawing lines? Wake up.
The only thing that can kick up the price in one go is never on the candlestick.
Washington slams the table, the Fed changes its tone, and the Middle East blows up oil pipelines—any one of these three works better than drawing a hundred golden crosses.
The three true giants of the crypto world:
1. CPI — The Fed's Tightening Spell — Did July Data Drop? Don't get too happy too soon. "Not that bad" doesn't mean "it got better"; the Fed has to really spend money to raise prices. Rushing in now is like dancing in a minefield.
2. SEC — The "Black Wallet" Dilemma in the Crypto Circle CLARITY has been pushed back into September. In the US, the crypto world remains largely unknown to this day. The SEC sues one today, fines that tomorrow—do institutions dare to make a big move? If big money doesn't move, coin prices become a zero-sum game of stock competition.
3. Hormuz — The Black Swan Nest The US-Iran talks collapsed, the strait was sealed, and oil prices soared. Oil prices → inflation→ rate hikes→ liquidity drainage→ a waterfall in the crypto world. If it really comes to a fight, all your support and resistance levels are just paper.
I'm not looking at the line now, but looking at these signals:
$BTC: Will institutions buy?
$ETH: Will ecosystem funds recover?
$SOL: Has the market gone crazy?
$HYPE: Has the gambler entered yet?
$OKB: Can the bear market soy sauce still hold up?
The next major market move will come from news headlines, not technical indicators.
Look at the world more, and less at screens. Living capital is more important than anything else.
Betting on one: CPI, SEC, Middle East—who will explode first? 👇
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, pressure from the US and Iran escalates
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets When valuing coins with "revenue," I'll first move the calculator half a step back. Bitcoin miner income does not equal holder cash flow; Ethereum is the same: if fees are high, only tokens can be burned or deposited for settlement needs to be transferred to the token.
In Q1, Ethereum base layer transactions reached about 200.4 million, setting a quarterly record. Low-cost scaling means transaction count, fees, and burns are no longer synchronized. Bustling as it is, the ledger doesn't automatically applaud.
My approach isn't sophisticated; it's almost like watching fireworks with a calculator. I monitor the seven-day transaction fees, the base fee burn amount, and net issuance—at least these three must be explained to each other.
If the funding costs are the first to heat up, who will clean up the cups of this party?
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be aware of the risks #$ETH Today, as soon as Mazi Ge spoke, $SPCX shot straight to the skies.
It surged to a high of 149.6 and closed at 146.15, up 9.65%. From the low, it has risen about 40%.
And now it's about to drop below 140 again.
My strategy was selling short positions too early; looking back now, it really was a slap on the thigh.
What did Musk say at the all-hands meeting?
AI revenue will surpass all other SpaceX businesses next month
AI computing power will reach 10 gigawatts by the end of next year
His estimate: In five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX's value
What does this mean? SpaceX's valuation logic has been overturned—from an aerospace company to a space AI computing power company. The valuation logic has changed, so the prices the market offers naturally differ.
But there's one thing to mention:
Capital expenditure in the second quarter was 18.37 billion yuan, of which 15.8 billion was invested in AI infrastructure, with revenue of only 7.8 billion yuan. The rate of burning money is 2.35 times the income.
The bigger the pie, the more money burns out.
The storage sector also surged: SK Hynix rose over 9%, SanDisk rose 5.76%, and Micron rose nearly 5%.
Expanding computing power requires chips, storage, and optical communications—the entire industry chain is following suit.
SanDisk also has an Investor Day today, and the market is waiting for management to present a roadmap for AI storage.
Summary: The entire AI infrastructure line—from chips to storage to computing power—is being repriced.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#海力士推进NAND扩产, storage supply expectations are rising
$SNDK $SKHYNIX
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets Bitcoin performed weakly last night, while US stocks generally rose, but Bitcoin directly plunged downward. Yesterday, the 64K short position didn't reach it, only falling to 63.9K.
Don't pursue perfection in trading; just vaguely correct within a certain range. It's like building a position at the bottom—you can't catch the lowest point, so you need to build positions in batches within the bottom area.
If you think Bitcoin is very likely to fall, I still suggest holding a light position and waiting for a drop. Why not just sell your position directly? Can you hold on after a big rebound? Will you just go into FOMO and chase the high? 🤣
Nothing is absolute; acknowledge your own limitations and do what is vaguely right!If you woke up and saw someone on the contract leaderboard up 48% and someone down 18%, which side would you click on first? On the same candlestick, the difference between bulls and bears is 66 points, and this sense of tearing is even more sobering than a one-sided market. The scariest thing today wasn't missing out, but taking the wrong side at the hottest moment of the emotions. I tend to treat these days as casual quizzes in risk management classes, not rushing to find opportunities, but first seeing if my position can withstand volatility. Let's first record a few key signals. Today's top perpetual gainers are very interesting, with EDEN leading by a wide margin with a 48% increase, with a turnover of 48.75 million yuan, nearly 30 million yuan more than second-place AEON. This volume-price relationship indicates that funds have reached consensus within a certain price range, but note that the leader is 28 points behind the runner-up, which precisely means the margin for error in short-term chasing is extremely low. If you want to participate, it's all about speed and stop-loss discipline, not faith. The list of decliners is also worth watching: LAB dropped 18%, and although APR turnover reached 450 million, it fell 5.6%. This kind of heavy decline usually indicates funds are borrowing liquidity to sell off. The newly listed contract products almost all saw slight declines, reminding me of one thing: new coins do not represent new opportunities; they may simply be new risks. From the market to sentiment, I can sense that today's market is in a highly sensitive state, with polarized risk appetite, funds lacking a clear main theme, and it seems like each is fighting its own battle. At times like this, index fluctuations may not reflect the true profitability effect. If I had to set a tone for today, my understanding would be that the market is happening🚨 CPI cooled. PPI cooled. Rate-cut hopes are rising… so why does crypto look half-asleep? 👀
You’d expect $BTC and $ETH to be celebrating.
But they’re barely reacting.
Here’s the part traders often forget: markets move on expectations, not headlines.
$BTC is hovering around $63,552, with $64K still proving difficult to break.
$ETH is around $1,886, repeatedly knocking on $1,900 without a convincing breakout.
So what’s going on?
A lot of traders may have positioned for the “good inflation news” before the numbers even landed.
When the data finally arrived, much of the bullish expectation may have already been priced in.
And with roughly $140M in options expiring tonight, there’s another reason for the market to stay cautious.
So I’m not chasing the headline.
I’m watching price, volume, and confirmation.
Because sometimes the most bullish news…
is already priced in. 📊
Personal market view, not financial advice.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #DailyOrbit
#DailyOrbit 👀 Guys, the two short positions I hold have finally turned positive these past couple of days!
But honestly, times like this are the most dangerous—not because you're afraid of misdirection, but because you're afraid of getting carried away. Today, let's not talk about the market; let's talk about mindset, which is more important than candlesticks.
---
Fuying arrived, and her first reaction shouldn't have been excitement
At this point, many people start to lose their minds—"Wait a little longer, I'll get even more," "This round is going to make a big profit." My experience is exactly the opposite: when your order turns green, the most important thing is to move your stop-loss upward, lock in the risk first, not add greed.
To put it plainly: floating profits on the books are numbers; what is pocketed is money. Before profits are realized, the market temporarily lends you money.
---
Two legs, two ways to handle it:
· $BTC the trending one: the trend is still there, so let it run a bit longer, move to stop losses and follow up, don't rush to buy everything.
· High leverage + oversold option: you need to be careful about this. Oversold means a needle could wash back all unsold gains at any time. When leverage is high, staying alive is more important than making more.
It's the same in card games—getting a good hand doesn't mean you can relax; the more smoothly it goes, the more you need to focus on yourself and not get carried away. Adding positions with floating profits and holding heavy positions to the fullest—these are all "traps after victory."
---
Let me share my current operational discipline (plain language version):
1. If the unrealized profit exceeds a certain percentage, immediately raise the stop-loss above the cost line—at least the order is not losing money
2. Take profit in batches—Don't fantasize about selling at the lowest point (short selling means the highest point). Moving in batches won't cause you to miss out or sell too fast
3. Don't add positions on floating gains—wanting to add when prices rise is greedy, buying when prices fall is fearful. Both are risky
4. Set a "content" goal every day—leave as soon as you arrive, don't look back
---
💎 To sum up a simple saying:
Floating profits are not profits; it's about pocketing them. Don't get carried away when your order turns green. Move your stop-loss upward, take profits in batches, and control leverage. If you do these three things right, no matter how much the market gets up, you can survive.
Brothers, when you have unfolding profits, do you choose to "wait a little longer" or "lock in profits first"? Share in the comments! 👇
(Pure nonsense, not investment advice. The one who buys is the apprentice, the seller is the master, and the one who knows how to short positions is the founder!) ）$BTC $ETH
Let's talk about an unusual phenomenon: CPI and PPI have cooled down, so why aren't BTC and ETH rising?
The most unusual thing these past two days isn't the decline, but that all the good news has arrived, yet the market still looks sleepy.
CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, while core CPI fell to 2.5%; The PPI was even lower than expected, with the month-on-month drop to zero.
According to the usual script, with inflation cooling and easing interest rate pressure, risk assets should at least respond.
But what about now?
BTC reached an intraday high of 63,998, with the current price returning to around 63,450; ETH peaked at 1899.48, current price is 1886.
Rush in, and there's no follow-up immediately.
This shows that the current problem is not macro-level.
Macro factors have only temporarily relieved the pressure to "continue raising rates," but it has not brought new active buying to the crypto world. US stocks, AI, and storage chains are driven by risk appetite, while BTC and ETH can't even catch the positive news. On the market, traders are "some exiting on the rally," not "funds rushing to buy."
So I won't call for a reversal just because of a single PPI.
Next, let's look at two verifications:
Can BTC effectively reclaim 64,000, rather than just rushing and then dropping?
Can ETH recover 1,900 and hold firm on the rebound?
If you can't regain your position, the positive CPI and PPI will at most give the market a breather.
The truly tough market never comes from bad news crashing down, but when good news arrives, the coins you hold still refuse to rise.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, pressure from the US and Iran escalates
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets ⚡ $PI Quick Summary
* Price: $0.08923 (+0.29%)
* Support: $0.08851 (MA5) | $0.08772 (24h Low)
* Resistance: $0.08949 (MA10) | $0.09020 (24h High)
🎯 Key Levels:
* Bullish: Break above $0.08949 ➡️ Target $0.09020 – $0.09600
* Bearish: Drop below $0.08772 ➡️ Retest $0.08596 (MA20)
DYOR. Not financial advice.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #OKXTraderVoices $SUI Fluctuating near the 52-week low of $0.68, with sluggish trading volume currently dominating Bitcoin's 58.5% market cap sucking away.
After an 87% retracement from the high of $5.30, the price is currently standing in the key support range of $0.65-$0.68.
On-chain stablecoins rose 35.7% weekly, indicating that funds have not fully exited, but with the market draining the market, spot buy orders have yet to support a trend reversal.
The upward scenario requires the price to first break through the dense resistance zone at $0.70-0.75 with increased volume.
When the price continues to rise above $0.77 with increased volume, the dominant bearish trend is declared broken, breaking the downward structure.
The downside scenario requires caution against the price falling below the $0.65 level, which could trigger stop-loss selling and open new downside space.
If it can quickly recover above $0.68 after falling below $0.65, the downside breakout scenario will fail.
In the next 7 days, focus on trading volume changes in the $0.65-$0.68 support band and whether Bitcoin's market cap proportion peaks at 58.5%.
#Tether首次完整审计: Transparency becomes the focus #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate financial inventories are becoming increasingly differentiated单币合约异动
$EDEN 合约盘有一段加速，仓位增减比单看涨跌更有信息。
价格和持仓一起走低，-2.21%/-5.76% 的组合更符合多头退场。 市价买方占 46.9%，若价格反弹但仓位不回升，仍只是离场后的修复。Completely done, totally done, following Bird Brother to short $SNDK, and last night it directly released good news: it is expected to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders.
This is a big positive. If the resistance at 1600 is also broken, then there is a high probability it will go to 2000, regardless of the shorts who first blew up the bottom at 3721.
My current cost price is 1420. If it continues to surge tonight, I will cut losses and not hold on stubbornly.
#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 With CPI delivered, chips and AI hardware surged collectively, and the market clearly entered a short squeeze. But looking at the whole trading day, it opened high and fell all night, giving a hint that institutions were quietly selling off during this rally. The index has been flat for six trading days without direction—what does that mean?
No incremental funds have entered the market; the market is still a zero-sum game of existing funds. Chips and hardware are rising, but software and most sectors are collectively pulling back. The S&P 500 only rose slightly, and the Dow even fell. This isn't a broad rally, but capital shifting positions within the existing market.
My personal trading approach is to continue bullish and long in the short term, focusing mainly on chips and hardware. But I am concerned about the future, so I also bought relatively long-term hedging options. I just checked the data and found that demand for deep out-of-the-money put options has reached a five-year high. This is the stock market version of trust, but holding back one lot.
Looking deeper, when Washh first pretended to be an eagle, I thought he was a pigeon in an eagle's coat. At the time, it was just a speculation, but the further time passed, the more likely it was to be true. And this is not just a matter of whether Wash is a dove or not; it's a matter of a country's development path.
Everyone should stop blindly believing in the Fed's independence. Independence is a narrative, not a fact. The Fed's independence means it has the right to independently exercise monetary policy tools, but that doesn't mean its exercise of power can be free from real-world constraints, especially fiscal constraints. Fiscal and monetary policies work together, which is an inevitable part of modern economic development. Everyone makes independent decisions according to their authority because things are normal, but is the current global economy and the U.S. still normal?
$SNDK $SPCX $XAU It's been a long time since I looked at the full Bitcoin data. Today I reviewed it again. Although the data looks terribly poor, there's still a glimmer of hope. At least it's clear that high-net-worth investors are continuously buying, and traditional spot ETF investors are clearly trying to buy at $60,000. Long-term holders may indeed be re-rotating due to the influence of cold wallets. Overall, my confidence in $BTC is quite strong.
Of course, the focus still depends on the U.S. macropolitics and economy, and the most critical issue now is the war between the U.S. and Iran. Today I saw some friends say that just seeing the word 'Hormuz' on the timeline makes them irritating. Actually, I'm also annoyed by what I'm writing myself, but there's nothing I can do—whenever the U.S. talks about inflation, I have to mention Hormuz. Hormuz has become a thorn in America's side.
Looking at the US fiscal deficit today, you can feel that continuing to fight will only make things harder for the US. Even if we can suppress Iran militarily, for a theocratic country, we don't need advanced weapons. Drones + small boats can make ships passing through Hormuz fearful, let alone cheap naval mines. It feels like the US is in a tough spot, but Iran's 7% charge is just too shameless.
At times like this, they should unite year-round to resist Iran, not let Iran ask for sky-high prices. Today Iran dares to ask for 7%, tomorrow it might demand 20%. The global economy being held hostage by Iran—I really can't understand it.$BTC $SNDK Bitcoin continued its weak volatility today. After surging to $64,014 in the early morning, it pulled back under pressure, then broke below the key psychological level of $63,000, hitting a low of $62,846. Continued whale sales combined with a sharp drop in ETF inflows have kept the bearish trend unchanged. The current quote is about $63,414, with the rebound merely a technical correction.
SanDisk, on the other hand, is the complete opposite. At yesterday's investor day, the company provided long-term guidance for mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth and a gross margin of about 80% for fiscal years 2028-2030, and promised 100% excess free cash flow to shareholders. Goldman Sachs reiterated a buy price with a target price of $2,200. SanDisk's intraday surge of 17.6% was at one point, but ultimately closed up 13.67% at $1,528.
The divergence between the two is clear: macro uncertainty suppresses risk assets, while favorable fundamentals for individual stocks can independently drive sharp gains.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened Like the line before supermarket checkout, a few people left ahead, the queue suddenly loosened a bit, but the shelves weren't emptied. Last night, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $131.1 million. $BTC spot still hovered around 63,403, recovering only -0.437% in 24 hours, and the low of 62,802 wasn't further breached.
I didn't chase the short position; above 63380, only a 2% short test was placed, stop loss at 64080, target 62850 first. The reason is straightforward: this outflow suppresses sentiment, but the market hasn't moved one-sided. The contract/spot turnover ratio has reached 10.7x, indicating that the main buzz now is leverage amplification, not spot funds pulling all the way. The funding rate is still at +0.0089%, the bulls haven't fully let go, and the crowding conditions remain.
If you really want to be bearish, I want to break below 62,800 and then rebound, then add another 3% position. If the price climbs back to 64,000, I'll just sell the short position above and not waste time on it.
When these ETFs flow out, it's not enough to just look at the news; you have to see if the price continues to break out. Last night's move seemed more like someone was already reducing their positions, and the market hasn't unified its direction yet. My trades are processed by range first, without any presets $BTC #BTC
The market is changing; what works today might be wrong tomorrow.$SUI From the all-time high of $5.30, it has fallen all the way down to around 0.68, down over 87%, currently at a 52-week low. On-chain fundamentals have not collapsed: Although TVL has fallen from a peak of $2.1 billion, it still maintains a scale of several hundred million dollars, stablecoins rose 35.7% weekly, and ecosystem projects like Tessera and Tether Hadron have recently been launched.
However, the core market contradiction currently lies in the overall lack of liquidity. Bitcoin's market cap share continues to climb to 58.5%, with the "bloodsucking" effect suppressing altcoin performance, causing capital to be reluctant to enter large-scale markets. SUI's spot trading volume is sluggish, and the rebound lacks strong buy support.
Technically, 0.65-0.68 forms a key short-term support, but resistance is concentrated at 0.70-0.75 above. Only sustained volume above 0.77 can the bearish trend reverse. In addition, although the co-founder and CTO resigned in an orderly manner, it remains a long-term uncertainty.