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The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 25 ("Extreme Fear," down from 27 the previous day), yet Bitcoin remains stuck above 64,000 without any movement; meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for three consecutive days, totaling $626 million. An counterintuitive picture emerges: retail sentiment is frozen, while institutions continue accumulating at low levels. This isn't the first time, but the data density this time is high enough to warrant a detailed look. 📈 Quick Data Summary Three-day net inflow rhythm (SoSoValue): | 8/3 (Monday) | +170 million | reversing the −265 million net outflow on 7/31 (see #32) | 8/4 (Tuesday) | +212 million | about 382 million over two days | 8/5 (Wednesday) | +244 million | three-day total **626 million**, streak of consecutive inflows established | Top issuer performance: · BlackRock IBIT: grabbed **479 million** over three days alone, cumulative net inflow approaching **61 billion** USD, leading by a wide margin. · Bitcoin current price: on Wednesday briefly pierced $64,920, at time of writing $64,744.53, 24h +0.7% — compared to "stuck at 64,000" in #34, it just raised the ceiling by $900, the range remains intact. · Sentiment contrarian indicator: F&G 25 (Extreme Fear) Valuation surged from 9 billion to 20 billion in 9 months, but Polymarket's nightmare is just beginning
Last October, valuation was 9 billion.
This April, valuation was 15 billion.
Now, raising another 1 billion at a valuation exceeding 20 billion.
In 9 months, a triple jump. From 9 billion to over 20 billion, more than doubled.
What does this mean?
This valuation is nearly catching up with Chobani and Perplexity. Worth more than all US-listed sports betting companies combined.
A platform built on "gambling" is valued higher than legitimate publicly traded betting companies.
Isn't that absurd?
But don't rush to cheer.
Look at some numbers:
Polymarket's US platform launched six weeks ago, annualized revenue surpassed 1 billion USD. June update — annualized revenue has exceeded 1.2 billion USD.
US daily trading volume soared from 50 million USD in mid-May to 200 million USD on June 20 — tripled in one month.
During the World Cup, international platform trading volume hit a record high.
Industry total trading volume: 51 billion USD for all of 2025, and 60 billion USD in just the first few months of 2026. Bernstein forecasts 240 billion USD for the full year, a 370% year-over-year increase.
Impressive, right?
But behind these impressive numbers lie three landmines.
First landmine: No matter how fast you run, someone ahead is faster.
Kalshi's valuation was already 22 billion USD in May.
Even more painful — last month Kalshi's trading volume was three times that of Polymarket.
You are at 20 billion, they are at 22 billion. You do 200 million a day, they do 600 million a day.
You are second in the race, but valuation is only 10% behind.
Capital markets never give generous premiums to the "number two."
Second landmine: The regulatory sword hangs overhead.
On June 27, CNBC revealed: CFTC is conducting a "continuous and extensive investigation" into Polymarket.
What is involved? Misleading marketing — making content creators appear to have made money when they actually invested nothing.
Senators Schiff and Curtis have jointly pressured the CFTC.
This is not the first time. Polymarket was banned in 2022. After struggling to recover, now it’s being pulled back for review.
A platform repeatedly scrutinized by regulators, valued at 20 billion?
Are you sure this isn’t dancing on a razor’s edge?
Third landmine: Giants have entered the field.
Robinhood launched a prediction market earlier this year, already generating 350 million USD in annualized revenue.
Coinbase has also launched, available to all users.
DraftKings acquired Railbird.
Bernstein analysts said: Kalshi and Polymarket could both become acquisition targets.
Translation: You two run fast, but Robinhood and Coinbase have tens of millions of users. You have technology, they have traffic.
Traffic is more valuable than technology.
So here’s the question —
Can prediction markets become a new growth point for the crypto industry?
My judgment: Yes. But not necessarily for Polymarket.
The industry is exploding — Bernstein forecasts trading volume to exceed 1 trillion USD by 2030. Sports, politics, macro hedging, corporate risk management — this is a track evolving from a "retail casino" to an "institutional tool."
The pie is big enough.
But who will get the biggest slice?
Is it Polymarket, valued at 20 billion, repeatedly investigated by the CFTC, suppressed by Kalshi, and besieged by Robinhood and Coinbase?
Or the big players holding tens of millions of users, fully compliant licenses, ready to flip the switch?
$POL $COIN $BTC #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元 On August 6th, BICO surged 28.81%, with a trading volume of $130 million.
Over the past week, it rebounded more than 30% from the bottom at 0.0113, with the price once breaking through 0.0293.
At this volume level, some have compared it to historical patterns — in the past three halving cycles, only the night before the altcoin rally following Litecoin's halving in August 2016 showed a similar signal. The starting point at 0.0205 exactly hit the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart, overlapping 85% with the low-volume base-building pattern before UNI's launch after March 12, 2020.
BICO is the token of Biconomy, which focuses on cross-chain message transmission and account abstraction. The core driving force behind this rally is the return of capital to the cross-chain infrastructure narrative. The market is trading on one logic — the messier the multi-chain ecosystem, the greater the demand for account abstraction.
This rally has a characteristic: BICO's correlation with Bitcoin is only 0.31, and it is even negatively correlated with the Nasdaq at -0.17. It doesn't follow Bitcoin when the market rises, and it may move against the trend when the market falls. It's purely an event-driven rally. Some are looking for a new story, and BICO, as a small-cap token in the AI + cross-chain sector, just fits into the gap between US Treasury yields and tech stock valuations.
But one point is worth considering — the top ten addresses hold 68% of the circulating supply. This is both rocket fuel and a time bomb. Whether this surge is driven by narrative inflow or by whales saving themselves, time will tell.
$BICO On August 3rd, BICO dropped 20.1% in 24 hours.
Then on August 4th it rose 8.96%, on August 5th it rose 25%, and on August 6th it surged another 28.81%.
Within three days, a coin went from a 20% crash to three consecutive days of gains, with a cumulative rebound of over 60%.
The chip turnover was extremely intense.
The derivatives side shows very extreme signals—funding rates deeply negative, open interest continuously rising, shorts piling up like a mountain, but the price is rising. This means shorts are paying to hold positions, while longs are continuously pushing the price higher. Aster DEX launched BICO perpetual contracts on August 4th, with up to 5x leverage and trading point bonuses until August 11th. The new contract launch combined with the negative funding rate structure may continue to squeeze shorts in the short term.
Order book depth imbalance is 11.85%, active buy orders account for 1.27%, with solid order support below. One-hour volume shrank to 64.32 million, showing signs of selling pressure exhaustion. BICO’s current price is around 0.027, still down 77.22% compared to a year ago. It has more than doubled from the 0.0113 bottom but is still far from the historical high.
The volume of this rebound is indeed expanding, but BICO’s market cap is small, and the top ten addresses hold a high concentration of chips. Once large positions start to sell off, liquidity could instantly dry up. This level of volume-driven rally is often dominated by short-term funds. $BICO [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The memory seller's market persists; is the recent plunge in Korean stocks really a golden opportunity?
Pharaoh states directly that the "seller's market" for memory hasn't changed, but whether Korean stocks can reverse depends on how much deleveraging occurs. The fundamentals of memory remain solid, but market confidence has been severely trampled by leverage.
The fundamentals are indeed sound.
Goldman Sachs' latest report explicitly says that market concerns about Korean memory are mostly overblown. The real supply-demand dynamics still support high memory prices, reaffirming buy ratings on Samsung and SK Hynix. HBM prices are expected to double by 2027, long-term contract terms are shifting in favor of suppliers, and prepayment mechanisms have locked in revenue for the coming years. Industry inventory is healthy, and NAND supply-demand will not reverse.
But the problem with Korean stocks lies not in fundamentals, but in leverage.
The Korean stock market surged over 100% in the first half of this year, all fueled by leverage. The size of 2x leveraged ETFs on single stocks soared to 17 trillion KRW within a month, and retail margin balances hit record highs. In July, the Korean Financial Services Commission suddenly "hit the brakes" by tightening leverage rules, bursting the bubble and triggering a chain of forced liquidations. Over 320,000 accounts were forcibly liquidated, with retail investors losing more than RMB 11.2 billion in total. Goldman Sachs data shows that assets in Korean leveraged ETFs have dropped 54% from a June peak of $53 billion to $25 billion, and retail margin loan balances fell from $25 billion to $19 billion.
What conditions are needed for a reversal?
Goldman Sachs believes Korean stocks have been oversold, with a 12-month KOSPI target of 12,000 points—about 80% upside from current levels. Morgan Stanley also upgraded Korean equities to overweight, stating that after a "shakeout," Korean stocks still have 36% upside. The core logic is that the memory cycle may be stronger and longer-lasting than before, and the market has not priced in this outlook.
However, the rebound will not be a straight line. The memory price upcycle may peak in Q4 2026, and Samsung and SK Hynix stock prices remain down about 40% and 54% from their June peaks, respectively. Variables include the ramp-up speed of HBM4, cloud providers' capital expenditure guidance, and whether foreign capital will return.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't lose its way! $BTC $ETH $BICO #内存卖方市场延续，韩股能否迎来反转？ SNDK's candlestick today probably made quite a few people get up in the middle of the night to check their accounts.
After the market closed on August 5, SanDisk released its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report.
Revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 51%, far exceeding the market expectation of $8.394 billion.
Non-GAAP earnings per share were $39.25, higher than analysts' expectations of $34.37. Gross margin hit 84.6%, with all three key metrics setting single-quarter all-time highs. Data center revenue was $2.98 billion, soaring 1298% year-over-year and doubling quarter-over-quarter — a 13-fold increase in one year.
And then? The stock dropped 7% to 8% after hours. Western Digital also released its earnings and fell 11% after hours.
The reason boils down to two words — guidance. The next quarter's revenue outlook is $10.3 to $10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $11.148 billion. Non-GAAP EPS guidance is $44 to $46, slightly below the expected $45.58. Gross margin guidance is 83% to 85%, roughly flat quarter-over-quarter, showing no signs of further expansion.
The market logic is straightforward: the past was great, but the future isn't good enough. Revenue has more than tripled, EPS has increased a hundredfold, but these are already history. The market is asking, "Can it get better next year?" SanDisk's answer is, "Yes, but not as good as you think." Then the price got hammered.
SNDK is now around 1240, down half from the historical high of 2354. But this halving happened after revenue tripled — market cap is lower than the peak, revenue is higher than the peak, and PE is actually contracting. The market is re-pricing the entire storage sector's valuation, not because it is bearish on SanDisk, but because it is uncertain how long this super cycle can last. $SNDK The truly valuable data in SNDK's financial report is not revenue, but NBM.
SanDisk calls this the "New Business Model" — cloud providers lock volume and price in advance, giving SanDisk revenue visibility and financial guarantees.
The latest scale disclosed in the Q4 report: 10 agreements signed, covering 8 customers, with minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion and $16.5 billion in financial guarantees.
The weighted average term exceeds 4 years.
About 50% of shipments for fiscal 2027 are locked through NBM, rising to about two-thirds in fiscal 2028.
What does this mean? SanDisk is transforming from a highly cyclical NAND wholesaler into an infrastructure supplier with long-term revenue visibility. Previously, the NAND industry operated on quarterly pricing and supply; now it has demand visibility for over four years.
CEO David Goeckeler's exact words: "NAND flash has become a core component of AI infrastructure. The traditional industry cycle adjustment logic is gradually weakening, and future supply-demand balance will rely on long-term contract cooperation."
The core variable driving all this is NAND chip prices. In Q4 revenue growth quarter-over-quarter, about one-third came from increased shipments, and two-thirds from price increases. The customer structure is also changing — the proportion of data center shipments in total shipments surged from 12% a year ago to 38%. Consumer business actually declined by 32%, as the company proactively shifted capacity from retail channels to enterprise customers.
SanDisk expects the global NAND market size to exceed $300 billion in 2026 and approach $500 billion in 2027. But this forecast depends on AI inference demand continuing to absorb capacity. If demand growth slows next year, the long-term contract price lock could become a burden. Long-term contracts are a double-edged sword: in an upcycle, they are a moat; in a downcycle, a shackle. $SNDK This wave of SNDK's decline has a technical detail worth noting. $SNDK
On August 4th, SNDK hit a low of 1124, then violently pulled back to around 1300.
At that time, the market was still betting that the earnings report would exceed expectations, but on August 5th, when the earnings report came out, it directly broke below the starting point of this rebound.
On the 4-hour chart, there are consecutive large bearish candles, with bears in control. The daily chart shows a rise and fall breaking below the Bollinger middle band, destroying the uptrend. Currently, the price is oscillating around 1240. The previous support zone at 1260-1270 has already been broken after the earnings report. The next support is at 1200, followed by psychological levels at 1100 and 1000.
On the weekly chart, SNDK has fallen more than 45% from the historical high of 2354 at the end of June. However, during this decline, the company's revenue has quadrupled, and gross margin has increased from just over 20% to 84.6%. This divergence means either the market is wrong or it signals a cycle peak.
In the options market, for contracts expiring the week of August 7th, the $1370 strike price has the highest open interest in both calls and puts. This level was the intense battleground before the earnings report. Now that the price has broken below this range, those call options are very likely worthless.
SanDisk's board approved a $14 billion buyback plan. The total remaining buyback authorization reaches $15.5 billion. If the price continues to fall, the company might step in to buy. But buybacks only affect short-term rhythm and cannot change the trend. The trend direction depends on whether AI inference demand can continue to absorb NAND capacity expansion. SanDisk's long-term logic remains unchanged, but short-term market sentiment has already shifted. 📊 $OKB Liquidation Flash Report (August 6)
According to liquidation data, this wave of longs was brutally crushed by the short sellers...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour: approximately $836.60
Long liquidations: approximately $836.60
Short liquidations: approximately $0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours: approximately $836.60
Long liquidations: approximately $836.60
Short liquidations: approximately $0
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours: approximately $911.02
Long liquidations: approximately $893.84
Short liquidations: approximately $17.19
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours: approximately $917.88
Long liquidations: approximately $900.69
Short liquidations: approximately $17.19
From the $OKB liquidation data, long liquidations dominate entirely in the 1-hour and 4-hour windows, with shorts at zero, indicating a fierce short squeeze from the start; in the 12-hour and 24-hour windows, long liquidations still hold an absolute advantage, being 52 times that of shorts. The shorts’ only resistance appears slightly in longer periods but is negligible. Although the liquidation amounts are only in the hundreds of dollars, the directional consistency is very strong, with longs being continuously harvested from short to long cycles—a textbook one-sided long liquidation. As an exchange platform token, OKB’s scale is small but the signal is clear. Everyone should manage their positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 6
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a phase of "not only good, but flawlessly good"—"exceeding expectations" is just the entry ticket; any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% Growth + $14 Billion Buyback, Still Knocked Down by "Not Impressive Enough"
SanDisk delivered explosive earnings: Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year; adjusted EPS $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; board approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year.
However, after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8%. The culprit was next quarter’s guidance—midpoint revenue of $10.55 billion, below market expectations of $10.82 billion. Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% suggests high margins may plateau. 372% growth is not enough, $14 billion buyback is not enough—the market demands "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC Growth Steady, Arc Becomes New Narrative
Before market open on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle released Q2 results: total revenue $701 million, up 7% year-over-year; net profit $48 million, turning profitable from a loss last year. USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, up 19%; on-chain transaction volume $14.8 trillion, up 151% year-over-year.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company significantly raised full-year other income guidance to $310-$330 million, mainly reflecting $242 million Arc token presale revenue confirmed in Q2. USDC is the foundation, Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of increasing crypto payment penetration, Circle is attempting to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue Doubled, Unlocking Peak Is the Real Storm
After market close on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report: Q2 revenue $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion.
After-hours stock price plunged over 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times that of the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. A bigger storm is coming on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares will unlock, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current circulating supply. Less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth led to a post-market plunge; SpaceX’s 92% revenue growth led to the market voting with its feet—"exceeding expectations" has become the passing line, only "perfection" satisfies investors.
As the AI sector moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," every deviation in guidance and every dollar of capital expenditure will be scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logics are collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ Latest and real CORE cryptocurrency holding addresses?
Source: Core official explorer scan.coredao.org (Core mainnet native chain)
1. Two types of address concepts (must distinguish clearly, 90% of people confuse them)
1. Total unique interaction addresses (project claims 20 million+ addresses)
Meaning: Wallet addresses that have historically transferred or interacted with the Core chain.
✅ Includes: empty addresses, addresses that only received airdrops and never held CORE again, zombie addresses with zero balance.
❌ Not equal to holding addresses, highly inflated, used for promotional beautification of data.
2. Non-zero balance holding addresses (addresses that truly hold CORE tokens)
Definition: Independent addresses with CORE balance > 0 in the wallet, this is the real holding address you want.
Current latest on-chain objective data (August 2026, Core mainnet native)
1. Total number of native on-chain non-zero balance holding addresses: approximately 112,000 to 118,000
Note: The number fluctuates slightly daily (due to transfers, small liquidations, new wallets entering).
2. This includes:
- CEX exchange cold wallets/hot wallets (a single address represents thousands of retail investors, counted as 1 address on-chain)
- Staking contracts, LP liquidity contracts (contract addresses, not real retail wallets)
- Foundation, team locked whale addresses
- Real retail independent wallets
2. Further filtering: [Removing contracts and exchanges to get effective retail independent wallets]
After removing staking contracts, DEX pools, exchange aggregated addresses, official locked addresses:
The number of real retail independent holding wallets is roughly 45,000 to 55,000
This is the narrow definition of "independent individual investors."
3. Key exposure of false data circulating online
1. Online claims of "60 million, 20 million holding addresses"
Source: Counting all historical interaction addresses, many with zero balance zombie airdrop addresses, which cannot be used as a reference for the number of holders; after airdrops ended, many addresses were abandoned long-term with zero balance.
2. Key facts about chip concentration (greatly affects market judgment)
Total circulating CORE is about 1.07 billion tokens;
Top 25 large addresses control nearly 88% to 90% of circulating chips;
Tens of thousands of retail wallets share the remaining ~10% circulating supply.
High concentration of chips is CORE's biggest on-chain risk:
Whale concentrated selling and large unlocks can easily trigger unbacked crashes, which was also the underlying reason we discussed the potential 0.01U flash crash risk when BTC dropped to $50,000.
4. Practical perspective on this data set
1. Only 40,000 to 50,000 real retail holding wallets, scale is mid-to-small public chain level, far smaller than BTCFi competitors like Stacks, Merlin; user base has not formed a sufficiently large and dispersed chip pool.
2. High chip concentration means: price rise heavily depends on large holders locking tokens and actively pushing the price; during bear market panic phases, lack of dispersed bottom-fishing funds leads to volatility far exceeding mainstream coins.
3. Continuous data tracking signals:
✅ Positive signal: effective retail wallets steadily increase, top holders' share slowly decreases;
❌ Risk signal: retail addresses continuously decrease, whales continuously transfer chips outward.
Brief summary
- Original on-chain non-zero balance addresses: 112,000 to 118,000
- Real retail independent wallets after removing exchanges, staking contracts, official whales: 45,000 to 55,000
Any claim of tens of millions of holding addresses confuses historical interaction addresses and is not a reliable reference. The SpaceX lockup release may not be a crisis but the beginning of a price reset. Why are investors who only see the superficial decline missing the supply and demand changes after August 6? To summarize the key facts from the original text first, SPCX reached a peak of $225 after listing on June 12 and is currently trading around $111. The first large-scale lockup release is scheduled for August 6, at which point the restricted shares held by existing holders will become available for sale. The original text cites the example of Palantir, where PLTR rose from $10 at IPO to $39, then fell to $6 after the lockup release, and later set new highs with cumulative institutional buying. From a market structure perspective, this event is important not simply because of selling pressure. The lockup release is a test that reveals the quality of demand absorbing the shock rather than the supply shock itself. Stocks that surged immediately after listing had low circulating supply, resulting in incomplete price discovery. The lockup release is the process of resolving this incompleteness, and At the beginning of August, the market's first turnaround was not gold, but crude oil. Expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening for navigation pushed oil prices down. According to the usual script, safe-haven assets should have cooled off as well. However, gold moved upward. According to Reuters on August 6, spot gold was quoted at $4,285.84 per ounce, rising for the fourth consecutive day to the highest level since mid-June.
This is easily framed as "geopolitical risks still persist." But another clue from Reuters is faster: after oil prices fell, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened simultaneously, and the market began to recalculate how high the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates. The rise in gold first occurred at the moment when the opportunity cost of holding it was repriced. There is no direct supply-demand transmission between crude oil and gold. Crude oil influences the market's inflation expectations. When energy prices no longer continue to push upward, the urgency to continue raising interest rates diminishes.
According to Reuters on August 6, the market's expectation for further rate hikes in September dropped from 67% to 55% within two days. The same report mentioned that US Treasury yields fell and the US dollar index also came under pressure. This explains why a seemingly risk-reducing geopolitical message can instead provide short-term momentum for gold.I stopped out on this short position.
These past two days I had a lot of personal matters, just finished, now back to review this range.
My short orders placed at 633-635-637 were all filled, and after filling, the price continued down, but it never reached the first lower range at 620, only down to 622.
After I placed the orders and posted, the main force first ate downwards, not upwards, so I felt it wouldn’t drop further. Later it moved up to 637, then turned down again but didn’t reach 620. Then the macro environment started moving against shorts, so the main force definitely took the opportunity to eat up the 65-67k range I mentioned before, and that is indeed happening. Bassent intervened in the Japanese exchange rate, Trump’s ceasefire and Strait navigation expectations, the Nasdaq and gold surged, the macro environment completely reversed this week, but BTC didn’t rally much. Macro changes so fast, for long-term investing, macro is really just noise...
Now it’s the late bear market consolidation, the main force needs to slowly grind, grind until no one is paying attention, grind until the last batch of the hardest-to-shake holders exit. More importantly, they need enough time to accumulate. Going long or short on BTC during this is very technically challenging. In the next six months, if the main force does another strong shakeout, that will be an excellent buying opportunity; if not, a long consolidation period is also a buy point.
If I hadn’t stopped out on this short and just fought it out with the main force, I could have won, but I would have missed other US stock opportunities.
This time I had some floating profit in the middle, and it lasted a while. I forgot to set a profit-protecting stop loss, for example, a stop loss at 630 would have guaranteed profit. I was too busy, forgot to set it, didn’t even check my phone, completely forgot about this position 🤣, no time to watch US stocks, went to sleep before 11. #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck $BTC has rebounded above 64,600, but don't rush to call a bull market. Analyst Axel Adler Jr.'s data is quite sobering:
Demand/issuance ratio is -5.43, and this indicator has been underwater for five months. Coin age net flow is -85,500 BTC, meaning that in the past 30 days, 85,000 coins have been locked into addresses for over a year, indicating liquidity is continuously shrinking.
To translate: this rebound is not driven by new money rushing in to buy; rather, old coins are being locked up more and more, reducing the circulating BTC supply, and accumulation behavior is propping it up. Simply put, the "supply side is contracting" to support the price, not the "demand side is exploding."
The real recovery signal? The demand/issuance ratio needs to stay above 1. As of now? It's still too early.
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？
#CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 On the eve of going public, they received a claim for over $400 million from an old partner.
Last night Bloomberg released news that several Binance-related entities filed a lawsuit in Hong Kong against the three co-founders of RedotPay. There is also a related lawsuit in Singapore, with a claim amounting to $472.8 million.
Friends unfamiliar with this sector might not know this company. RedotPay is currently the leader in crypto U cards, with over 8 million users, an annual payment volume of $14 billion, and annual revenue of about $180 million. In July, the entire U card industry had a transaction volume of $749 million, of which RedotPay accounted for $395 million, or 52.8%. The second place, Ether.fi, only had $100 million. This is a solid half of the market.
The problem lies in how it grew so big.
Rewind to November 2023. At that time, RedotPay had only been established for six months and had negotiated a partnership with Binance to integrate Binance Pay. Users could directly top up their RedotPay cards using funds in their Binance app accounts via a mini-program. For a six-month-old company, this channel was invaluable; it bypassed the hardest hurdle and directly reached a batch of mature users who already held stablecoins and were accustomed to crypto payment processes.
At that time, Binance also had its own card, the Binance Card, which was a direct competitor to RedotPay.
This is the point Binance cannot accept now. Their argument is: I am responsible for acquiring users, building trust, and managing funds, but you took the last step by handling the top-ups and spending. Users were still spending stablecoins, but the card changed from Binance Card to RedotPay Card, and the transaction volume, fees, and subsequent revenue shifted direction. The complaint states that over 470,000 Binance Card users were redirected to RedotPay.
There is a more subtle part in between. Shortly after the first cooperation, they had a dispute over top-ups, and the agreement was terminated after about six months. In March 2025, they signed a new agreement explicitly requiring Binance Pay funds to be segregated and only used for fiat conversion, on-platform transfers, and purchasing RedotPay merchandise, strictly prohibiting card top-ups. Until March 2026, Binance discovered funds were still flowing into the card business, and the channel was shut down the following month.
Binance estimates that during the cooperation period, about $304 million of user funds flowed to RedotPay through Binance Pay. The $472.8 million claim is calculated based on this $304 million plus business losses from customer attrition.
RedotPay has responded, saying the lawsuit does not affect daily operations, they will actively defend themselves, and will not comment on details as the case is now in judicial proceedings.
But the real trouble might not be this $400 million.
This company raised a total of $194 million in three rounds last year, with Lightspeed, Coinbase Ventures, Goodwater, Pantera, Blockchain Capital, and Circle Ventures on the list, and a valuation exceeding $1 billion. It plans to go public in New York as early as this year, targeting a valuation of over $4 billion, with a financing scale possibly exceeding $1 billion. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Jefferies have all been involved.
At this point in time, Binance’s lawsuit precisely hits the most sensitive part of its growth story: where the early customers actually came from.
Underwriters and investors will need to redo some calculations during due diligence. Was the cooperation agreement violated? Were funds properly segregated? Was the conversion of 470,000 users compliant? How much compensation exposure will the lawsuits in Hong Kong and Singapore bring? To make matters worse, in the past year, at least five executives at this company have served less than twelve months, the compliance officer has changed twice, and at one point the IPO was pushed forward without a CFO.
I think the most interesting part of this is that the audience for explaining the source of growth has changed. Previously, it was telling stories to investors and underwriters; now it has to be told to a judge.
Achieving half the market in three years is indeed impressive. But how much came from natural market expansion and how much from that now-closed channel? Now someone is demanding an explanation.
Do you think this lawsuit will really delay the IPO plan? I can only say, there are still quite a few whales who are foolish and have lots of money... This guy just opened a short position of 1600 $BTC last night, worth 100 million dollars. But then, in the early morning, Bitcoin violently rebounded, wiping out 13 million dollars of his position. The liquidation price was stuck at 64889, just a tiny bit short of holding on. The more cunning move came next: he placed multiple small stop-loss orders of 50 coins each between 64885 and 68254, like casting a fishing net. So far, 4 of these have been triggered, losing over 140,000 dollars, forcing him to reduce his position by 200 coins. You could say the bulls are stepping on him like stairs, nibbling away at his position bit by bit.
Why say the bulls are stepping on him like stairs? Because his orders are very regular (each 50 coins, spread over a long range), which is almost an open book on-chain. The main bullish players seeing a ladder of stop-loss orders above their heads must be thrilled — they don’t have to pay the full cost to push the price up; as long as they reach that point, the whale’s own stop-loss buy orders will help the bulls keep pushing higher. Every time 50 coins are swept, the price jumps up a bit, like stepping up stairs one step at a time.
But that’s not the worst part. The most deadly is the "snowball" effect: after sweeping 200 stop-loss coins, the short position decreases, but the liquidation price only rises to 64,998, barely moving. This means the bulls only need to push a little more to trigger the collective liquidation of the remaining 1400 short coins, which would cause an even larger forced buying wave. Every step the bulls break through brings them closer to the whale’s death sentence.
Brothers, do you think the bulls will charge straight to 64998 to completely crush him, or deliberately shake the market around 64800 before pushing up? I tend to think the former — these obvious stop-loss orders are too good not to exploit.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Polymarket's valuation is about to hit $20 billion, is it going to arm wrestle with Kalshi?
Pharaoh says directly, the prediction market sector is expanding at a visibly rapid pace; a $20 billion valuation is not the end, but the starting line of a new arms race. According to Bloomberg, Polymarket is in preliminary talks with potential investors, planning to raise about $1 billion at a valuation exceeding $20 billion. If the financing is completed, the valuation will be more than double the $9 billion from last October.
More importantly, in April this year, Polymarket completed a financing round at a $15 billion valuation, bringing in new investors like D.E. Shaw and G Squared, with total funding around $1 billion. Intercontinental Exchange invested $600 million in that round, and existing shareholders like SV Angel and Dragonfly also participated. From $9 billion to $15 billion and then to $20 billion, it more than doubled in less than a year, a pace faster than Pharaoh's camel.
Why so aggressive? After the April financing, Polymarket's US platform officially opened, with annualized revenue soaring to over $1.2 billion, tripling. During the World Cup, the entire prediction market betting volume surged, and this revenue growth rate is impressive in any sector.
But the competitor is also strong. After Kalshi's financing in May, its valuation reached $22 billion, higher than Polymarket, and its July trading volume was three times that of Polymarket. However, Polymarket has not been idle recently; it recruited the former Uber head of international growth as Chief Growth Officer and also hired a trading technology executive from the NYSE to lead US exchange development.
What does Pharaoh say? Prediction markets have transformed from niche gambling to a $10 billion sector, with one core logic: the business of information pricing always has buyers. But a fast-rising valuation does not mean stability; Polymarket still faces a CFTC investigation related to social media marketing issues. The $20 billion valuation is given by the market, but whether it can hold depends on whether the compliance path can be navigated.
Follow Pharaoh, and wealth will not lose its way $BTC $ETH $SNDK #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元 $PYTHUSDT Eyes a Key Breakout 👀
$PYTH has been moving in a tighter range lately, and that's usually where the next big move starts to build. Buyers are still defending the recent support, but the real test is the resistance sitting just ahead.
If the market pushes through that level with solid volume, momentum could pick up quickly. If not, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more sideways action before another breakout attempt.
With more DeFi and cross-chain projects relying on fast, reliable price data, $PYTH continues to be one of the oracle projects worth following.
What's your view on $PYTH right now ?
Waiting for a confirmed breakout, or already accumulating at these levels ? Caterpillar CAT continues its strong momentum following positive earnings, maintaining its position as a leading indicator in traditional industrial and energy power infrastructure, continuing to lead the pro-cyclical sector.
Market Sentiment: Steadily Bullish
Key Signal: Orders in the energy and power sectors are strongly driven by data center power supply and global energy transition demand, with backlog orders remaining high.
Analysis: The AI computing power boom not only drives chip demand but also provides a tangible boost to ground power, cooling facilities, and industrial construction.
It demonstrates strong cost pass-through and pricing power, and against a backdrop of robust macroeconomic resilience, offers non-tech capital a high-quality defensive yet offensive allocation option.
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ [Pharaoh's Market Watch] Gold has surged to 4200, so why is BTC still hovering around 64500? What happened to the so-called digital gold? Pharaoh bluntly says, gold and BTC are no longer in the same league. Gold is rising because it remains the go-to safe haven for "old money," while BTC is stuck sideways because it's being revalued as a "risk asset." Let's first look at how divergent the data is. Gold has climbed from below 4000 to above 4200, surging whenever geopolitical tensions rise and conStrong Earnings, Massive Buyback—So Why Are $xSNDK, $MU, and $xSKHYNIX Still Sliding? 📉
SanDisk delivered one of its strongest quarterly reports in recent memory, beating Wall Street expectations on both revenue and earnings while unveiling a $6 billion share buyback program. The company also reinforced its long-term outlook through multi-year supply agreements, highlighting continued confidence in AI-driven storage demand.
Despite these positive developments, the market response has been surprisingly muted.
Shares of $xSNDK remain under pressure, while $MU and $xSKHYNIX have also struggled to maintain momentum. The weakness appears to reflect market positioning rather than deteriorating fundamentals. After a strong sector rally, investors had already priced in exceptional results, leaving little room for upside surprises.
Profit-taking following earnings, concerns that NAND pricing could cool, and elevated valuations have all weighed on sentiment. At the same time, capital is rotating into other AI-related themes, temporarily reducing interest in memory stocks despite solid business performance.
The takeaway is clear: in today's market, simply beating expectations isn't always enough. Investors are looking for accelerating growth, stronger guidance, and catalysts that justify premium valuations.
While near-term volatility may continue, the longer-term outlook remains constructive. Expanding AI infrastructure, hyperscale data centers, and growing enterprise storage demand continue to provide powerful structural tailwinds for the memory industry.
If AI investment remains strong and memory pricing stabilizes, $xSNDK, $MU, and $xSKHYNIX could be well positioned to regain leadership in the next phase of the market.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
#CircleArcLaunch
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback
#ADPCoolsFedSplit SanDisk's latest financial report showed strong performance in core metrics such as revenue, profit, and earnings per share, with each metric alone enough to be called "explosive." However, the stock price still plunged 8% after hours — this contrast clearly points to one fact: the market's pricing power is now fully controlled by the "guidance."
The problem lies in the revenue guidance for the next quarter. SanDisk provided a range of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, while analysts unanimously expected as high as $11.16 billion, a difference of about $600 million. This is undoubtedly a classic case of "guidance falling short of expectations" — mirroring the market reaction Palantir experienced a few days ago. The current quarter's numbers are just the entry ticket; the guidance is the real valuation anchor. Earning $8.9 billion in the past three months is impressive, but the market only cares about how much can be earned in the future.
The current market logic is very clear: good performance is the baseline, anything less means losing points. SanDisk itself did nothing wrong; expectations were simply pushed to the limit by the previous report. Even a slight deviation this time is met with no mercy by the market. As for the newly announced $14 billion buyback plan? It also failed to boost confidence. In the past, buybacks meant positive signals, but now some interpret it as a sign that "the company itself believes the stock price is under pressure." In an environment where "expectation gaps dominate everything," even a $15.5 billion buyback authorization cannot offset the impact of guidance slightly below expectations.
However, looking at the long term, the core narrative of AI storage remains unshaken. SanDisk's CEO clearly stated that the scale of AI inference is still expanding, customer orders have locked in capacity for the next four years; the new HBF standard was just released, and SanDisk is one of the main drafters; the global NAND market is expected to approach $500 billion by 2027. These macro trends will not reverse because of one quarterly report.
In the end, SanDisk did submit an extremely outstanding quarterly report, but the market craves an even more impressive outlook. The short-term stock price pullback is just the market expressing through price: "You did well, but I need to hear that you will do better in the future, and you didn’t say enough this time." The long-term logic remains intact, and after sentiment is digested, valuation recovery is still expected.
$SNDK $XAU $SPCX
#SanDiskFinancialReportExceedsExpectationsWithNew$14BillionBuybackAuthorization SanDisk's earnings exceeded expectations but plunged after hours due to guidance falling short, with the core issue being a market re-pricing of storage cycle expectations under high valuation, leading to a contraction in risk appetite.
Current market data shows SanDisk's Q4 revenue reached $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, but the next quarter's midpoint guidance of $10.55 billion fell short of the market expectation of $10.82 billion, causing the stock to drop nearly 8% after hours. This guidance gap directly triggered a chain reaction in the Asian semiconductor sector, with SK Hynix falling over 10% and Samsung Electronics dropping more than 6%.
The main drivers of market movement are first the realization of expectation differences under high position crowding, second doubts about the return cycle of AI capital expenditures, and finally an overall cooling of risk appetite in the global tech sector. Although Goldman Sachs pointed out that current inventory is only 2 to 4 weeks, indicating a structural shortage, the stock price trend shows the market has shifted from "optimistic about long-term demand" to a defensive mode of "quarterly judgment on guidance."
If after the U.S. market opens $SNDK can stabilize in the $1250 to $1300 range and rebound with volume, it indicates that negative sentiment has been fully released. Under this scenario, if Micron's subsequent earnings exceed expectations and provide strong guidance, the bearish logic on the storage sector will be invalidated, and market risk appetite is expected to rebound.
If SanDisk's stock price falls below the $1250 support level with volume, it may drop to the $1080 to $1100 range. In this case, valuation adjustments in the semiconductor sector will transmit risk appetite contraction to high-beta assets like the crypto market, causing short-term funds to accelerate risk exposure reduction.
The most important variables to watch in the next 24 hours are whether SanDisk can hold the $1250 level during regular trading hours and the overall trading volume changes in the U.S. tech sector.
#特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 #西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ETH: Consolidating at the bottom with smart money remaining neutral and observant
ETH is currently quoted at $3245, down slightly by 0.43% in 24 hours, fluctuating narrowly between $3230 and $3285. The 24-hour trading volume is $112 million, with a market cap of $391 billion, maintaining its position as the second largest by market cap. Social sentiment has completely cooled off, with both bullish and bearish proportions at zero, indicating an absolutely neutral market sentiment and a lack of directional consensus. Smart money signals show net short positions, but both long and short holdings are zero, rendering the long-short ratio ineffective. This indicates that smart money is purely observing or hedging, without forming directional bets. ETH is in a high-level sideways digestion phase, awaiting changes in ETH 2.0 staking yields or Layer2 ecosystem data to catalyze directional choices.
---
> Data source: OKX Market Filter / OKX News Sentiment / OKX Smart Money Signal
> Generation date: 2026-07-23 Morgan Stanley slashed Circle's target price to $38, basically trying to buy cheap
Simply put, there are three reasons for their target price downgrade:
"USDC circulation shrinkage, competitor threats, rising distribution costs"
1⃣ USDC circulation shrinkage
The circulation volume has basically been growing every quarter, except for Q4 2025 with +2.2%, +2.3%, and -4.8%. Based on just three quarters' performance and only one quarter being negative, claiming USDC's shrinkage is structural is unfounded. In fact, USDC's all-time high circulation volume occurred this year.
As for mainstream media reports, they downgraded USDC supply assumptions for 2027 and 2028 by 33% and 44%, respectively, relative to Morgan Stanley's previous model. The media only reported percentages without mentioning actual amounts, so it's impossible to verify whether this downgrade reflects real decline or just a growth rate adjustment.
2⃣ Competitor threats
Institutions like BlackRock and Franklin have launched tokenized money market funds that pay interest to holders, whereas USDC does not. Morgan Stanley believes this will divert funds away from stablecoins.
In reality, the current leader in tokenized money market funds is Circle itself. USYC surpassed BlackRock's BUIDL in March this year; BUIDL's market share dropped from 46% to 18%, while USYC holds 20%. Moreover, Binance has already listed USYC as an over-the-counter collateral for institutional derivatives.
3⃣ Rising distribution costs
Morgan Stanley believes that the launch of Open USD will increase Circle's costs to maintain USDC distribution. Additionally, contracts signed with Coinbase and Hyperliquid will weaken USDC's economic benefits. They expect the RLDC profit margin of 41.4% in Q1 to fall back to 38-40%.
The actual financial report proved this wrong, with RLDC profit margin at 41.2%, net reserve profit margin at 38.5%, and the full-year RLDC guidance raised to 41.7-43.7%. Other income full-year guidance is 310-330 million, nearly doubling. The report also mentioned a 73% year-over-year increase in platform share, meaning more USDC stays on Circle's own platform, saving distribution costs.
In summary: the $38 target price is based on assumptions of declining balances and profit margins. After the financial report, profit margin decline did not materialize but reversed. However, this does not mean $CRCL's outlook is entirely positive. Profit margin improvements have limits, but circulation shrinkage has no floor. A reduction of 5 billion in circulation from the peak is a fact, and next year will face the impact of interest rate cuts.
$CRCL 📊 $SOL Contract Liquidation Update (August 6)
According to liquidation data, short-term shorts were crushed hard, but mid-to-long-term longs suffered a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $25,000
Long liquidations about $24,000
Short liquidations about $968.79
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $109,900
Long liquidations about $81,000
Short liquidations about $28,800
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $1,144,200
Long liquidations about $982,500
Short liquidations about $161,700
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $2,871,500
Long liquidations about $1,364,800
Short liquidations about $1,506,700
From the $SOL liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed shorts, with long liquidations 24 times and 2.8 times that of shorts respectively, indicating a short-term dominant long liquidation trend; the 12-hour long advantage further expanded to 6 times, showing long liquidation throughout short to mid-term; the 24-hour direction completely reversed, with short liquidations crushing longs, shorts being 1.1 times longs. The bears on SOL completed a fierce turnaround from long liquidation to short squeeze — short-term longs were targeted and destroyed, long-term shorts were wiped out, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $2.87 million. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 6
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a phase of "not only good, but flawlessly good" — "exceeding expectations" is just the entry ticket, any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% Growth + $14 Billion Buyback, Still Knocked Down by "Not Impressive Enough"
SanDisk delivered explosive earnings: Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year; adjusted EPS $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; board approved $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year.
However, after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8%. The culprit was next quarter's guidance — revenue midpoint $10.55 billion, below market expectation of $10.82 billion. Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% implies high margins may plateau. 372% growth is not enough, $14 billion buyback is not enough — the market demands "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC Growth Steady, Arc Becomes New Narrative
Before market on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle reported Q2 results: total revenue $701 million, up 7% year-over-year; net profit $48 million, turning profitable from loss last year. USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, up 19%; on-chain transaction volume $14.8 trillion, up 151% year-over-year.
The biggest highlight is Arc — the company significantly raised full-year other income guidance to $310-$330 million, mainly reflecting $242 million Arc token presale revenue confirmed in Q2. USDC is the base, Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of increasing crypto payment penetration, Circle is trying to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue Doubled, Unlocking Peak Is the Real Storm
After market on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report: Q2 revenue $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; adjusted EBITDA $3.5 billion.
After-hours stock price once plunged over 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times that of the same period last year — the market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. The bigger storm is on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares unlock, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current float. Less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth was met with an after-hours plunge, SpaceX's 92% revenue growth was met with market rejection — "exceeding expectations" has become the passing line, only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI sector moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," every deviation in guidance and every dollar of capital expenditure will be scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming — and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ Sisters, it's over, it's over, what's going on with $BEAT?
It keeps falling, dropping from over 6 to just over 1, not even a slight rebound.
My long position is stuck tight, I'm devastated, I don't even feel like working today.
This afternoon, the manager sent a message saying he noticed me looking at my phone several times at work and told me to come to the office later to sign a penalty notice.
I didn't say a word, I know it's wrong to look at my phone at work, but today I really don't feel like working 😭.
BEAT has crashed from 6.18 all the way down to 1.60, down 31.7% in 24 hours and 56% in 7 days.
My long position at 3.09 is still holding, current price 1.63, floating loss is almost half now.
A few days ago, I was arguing in the comments that opening both long and short positions is a "steady strategy," but now looking at this bearish daily candle, I can't even say a full sentence.
Someone in the comment screenshots said: "If you don't close the position, the price will keep pulling."
I didn't believe it then, but now I do, only now it's a drop.
But after falling so much, it should bounce back, right? From 2.55 down to 1.60, this is already oversold.
The SAR indicator has been pierced, the price is far from the moving average, a technical rebound could come at any time.
I couldn't help but open another long position at 1.64.
I understand the logic, but I just can't control my urge to catch the bottom.
Sisters, does this mean I'm getting obsessed again? 😭
$BTC
$SNDK
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ Collective consensus in a bull market is often a trap. In the last cycle: the whole network shouted Bitcoin to 150,000, with many chasing highs at 120,000 and getting stuck; then the four-year cycle was said to be invalid, an eternal bull market was proclaimed, ignoring the risk of pullbacks; the collective forecast was an altcoin season, which ultimately became an "altcoin sacrifice," with countless altcoins crashing to zero.
In 2026, a new consensus has formed: it is widely believed that Bitcoin at 40,000–50,000 is the bottom. The market often breaks through the public's psychological bottom, so an extreme scenario of dipping near 30,000 cannot be ruled out.
Currently, the mainstream is bearish on altcoin trends. I believe there may be structural altcoin opportunities, but the risks are extremely high, so I dare not participate.
The market always goes beyond most people's expectations. Consensus can be used as a contrarian reference. Do not bet on price points prematurely; prioritize risk control and wait for signals to materialize before taking action. #1. The CORE project team promotes a universal BTC grid across the entire network, but its actual ecosystem is very small. There are hundreds of DApps marked on CORE (I participated in dozens), but the vast majority are small workshop applications brought in by early project incentive subsidies. Daily real transactions are extremely low, user activity is extremely low, and most applications are bot contracts, with no leading BTC derivatives in the industry. Established BTC wealth management protocols are actively and deeply bound to Core 2. Truly mainstream BTC ecosystems (native Bitcoin wallets, leading BTC lending, leading BTC perpetual contract platforms) are almost entirely operating independently and have no underlying capabilities relying on CORE. The benchmark institutional product lstBTC later fell out with its partner Maple, tearing up the cooperation agreement, and the story of institutional scaling was completely ruined. 4. The high returns from early users staking BTC were mostly subsidized by the project team using CORE token inflation (hence the large amount of free CORE tokens for sell-off), not profits from BTC derivatives or DApp real business. 5. The project team claims that nearly 90% of the network's Bitcoin hash rate is backed by Core security, offering Bitcoin-level security and making it the most reliable BTC Layer 2 network. The reality is this: the native Bitcoin community does not recognize this staking consensus. Bitcoin miners' hashrate participation in Core staking is mainly for CORE token rewards, rather than actively providing security for the Core ecosystem. Once token reward appeal declines, hashrate will quickly withdrawGalaxy is becoming an AI company with a crypto problem. 👀
An $85 million Q2 loss sent $GLXY down 14% as falling crypto prices hit earnings.
But its AI data centre pipeline now exceeds 5.7 GW, while the CoreWeave lease could generate around $80 million per quarter at 90%+ margins.
Can AI rescue Galaxy?#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck 8.6 Gold Daily Report｜Single-day surge over 4% to hold above 4200! Focus on buying the dip, avoid blindly chasing highs
📅 Thursday, August 6, 2026
Three core drivers of this rally
1. Cooling rate hike expectations are the main positive factor
US July ADP employment increased by only 44,000, far below market expectations, signaling a clear cooling in the labor market. The probability of a rate hike in September fell from 67% to 59%, indicating a slowdown in Fed tightening, directly boosting gold prices sharply.
2. The 48-hour US-Iran negotiation window influences the whole picture
The market anticipates a high probability of an agreement, putting downward pressure on oil prices, forming a positive transmission: "oil price decline → inflation cooling → slower rate hikes → gold price rise"; if negotiations fail, oil prices may rebound and inversely suppress gold prices, representing the biggest current uncertainty.
3. Capital inflows and central bank gold purchases strengthen the bottom support
SPDR Gold ETF has seen continuous accumulation, with clear institutional capital inflows; the Bank of Korea plans to purchase physical gold for the first time in 13 years, and institutions generally recognize the $4000 area as the bottom range of this rally.
⚠️ Short-term disturbance: Some Fed officials have expressed hawkish views, and today's speeches may cause short-term volatility in gold prices.
Key levels overview
🔹 Intraday levels
Resistance: 4285, 4300; Support: 4245, 4200
🔹 Short-term levels
Resistance: 4320–4350; Support: 4150, 4120
🔹 Medium-term levels
Resistance: 4375–4385 (200-day moving average + golden ratio confluence zone, trend reversal watershed); Support: 4098, 4000
Chart pattern analysis: Daily chart shows a large bullish candle with volume breaking out of a W-bottom structure, indicating a short-term bullish trend; 4-hour chart shows high-level consolidation—holding above 4200 support line indicates strong consolidation rather than a top and pullback.
Trading strategy by timeframe
✨ Short-term: Avoid chasing highs; prioritize waiting for a pullback to 4245–4200 to stabilize before entering; follow through after a volume-backed break above 4300, closely monitor stop-losses to avoid false breakouts due to news.
✨ Medium-term: The 4000–4100 bottom range is confirmed; the 4150–4200 pullback zone is a quality add-on point; medium-term target is the 4375–4385 confluence resistance band.
Today's key watch points
① 20:30 US initial jobless claims data; a rise will continue to support gold;
② Hawkish or dovish tone in Fed officials' speeches;
③ Final outcome of the 48-hour US-Iran negotiations, which will determine the subsequent market direction.
Final summary
Currently, bulls have overall dominance, but clear resistance above and many uncertainties exist. The overall strategy favors buying the dip over chasing highs. 4300 is the intraday dividing line between strength and weakness; holding above it offers a chance to challenge medium-term resistance zones. If negotiations suddenly fail, gold may retest the 4200 support range.
❗ Risk warning: This article is for market information review only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing carries risks; please proceed with caution.$SPCX
【Don't panic about SpaceX's drop; today's event is even bigger.】
SpaceX has fallen below its issue price.
Musk's shares are locked until June next year, so he's certainly not in a hurry. Are you?
Today, insiders are unlocking $101 billion worth of shares, causing the circulating supply to expand by 140%.
Since SpaceX's IPO, the price has directly fallen below the $135 issue price, down a total of 33%.
The reason is simple: spending. Capital expenditure for one quarter is $18.37 billion, with the AI segment jumping from $7.7 billion last quarter to $15.8 billion, doubling.
No worries, don't panic. Today's event is even bigger.
On August 6, the first batch of insider lock-up periods expire, unlocking 911.5 million shares. At today's price, that's over $101 billion, 64% more than SpaceX's IPO fundraising amount.
Currently, publicly tradable shares of SpaceX only account for 4% to 5% of total shares. This unlocking will directly expand the circulating supply by 140%.
Who are these insiders unlocking shares? Early SpaceX employees who received options years ago at just a few dollars or even cents per share.
VCs like Sequoia and Founders Fund who entered before 2010. Their costs are on a completely different scale from yours. You bought at $135 and are now down 20%, but their costs might be just a fraction of yours.
Do you think they will sell?
You can bet they are optimistic long-term and choose not to sell. But your bet assumes you understand this company better than these insiders who have been with SpaceX for over a decade.
Musk himself has 6.4 billion shares locked until June 12 next year, none can be moved. He is indeed not in a hurry. But his cost is zero, his cash flow is unlimited, and his time horizon is ten years. What about you? First, the conclusion: After SanDisk's financial report exceeded expectations, it showed a significant decline, reflecting the realization of positive factors under high valuations and high expectations; Meanwhile, the semiconductor and AI hardware sectors in Asia are generally under pressure. However, it cannot yet be defined as the entire memory chip industry entering a systemic decline. SanDisk's revenue, adjusted earnings per share, and data center business all significantly exceeded market consensus expectations this quarter, with no substantial deterioration in fundamentals. However, since the stock price has already risen sharply cumulatively, the market has taken into account very optimistic expectations for AI storage demand, NAND prices, and future earnings growth. Although the company's outlook for the next quarter remains strong, it has not fully met the higher implied expectations of some investors, leading to profit-taking at high levels. SanDisk's stock fell about 5.4% during regular trading hours, and after the earnings report was released, it saw another significant drop in after-hours trading. The Asian market subsequently came under further pressure, with SK Hynix down about 10% and Samsung Electronics down about 6%. This indicates that the market is reassessing the sustainability of the upward trend in the highly valued AI hardware and storage sector. However, the declines in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics cannot be entirely attributed to SanDisk's financial reports. Currently, Asian tech stocks are also affected by multiple factors, including previously large cumulative gains, cooling risk appetite in the global tech sector, and investors' doubts about the AI capital expenditure return cycle. So far, Micron's stock price is close to flat, and so far it has not experienced a sharp decline in sync with SanDisk, SK Hynix, or Samsung Electronics. Therefore, the more accurate judgment at this stage is: SanDisk itself has realized its positive developments and is semi-leading"Speak only when you have something to say; don't force words when you don't."
What should be said is not said. Just checked the market: $XAU Gold has once again firmly held above the $4200 mark, and $XAG Silver has followed suit, breaking through $62. The US dollar index weakened, US Treasury yields fell simultaneously, and safe-haven funds flocked into the precious metals sector. This linkage logic has long been repeatedly verified by the market, so it's not an unexpected move, but this round of gains hides quite a few subtle differences. #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ Watched $SNDK all day, earnings all exceeded expectations, revenue 8.97 billion, gross margin 84.6%, repurchased an additional 14 billion, but still dropped 9% after hours. Just because next quarter's guidance was 270 million less, the market immediately turned hostile.
Remember the fear of being crushed after earnings on $SPCX before, now I've learned: the fuller the expectations, the more cautious you have to be. Placed a short near 1337 this time, betting not on bad earnings, but that expectations have already been fully priced in. When the data came out, the short thesis was realized; 1250 is the first target, if broken then look at 1080-1100.
The market rewards not good performance, but beating expectations. When everyone is expecting a surprise, no surprise itself is bad news. Behind Trump's "Ample Ammunition" Claims, How Should the Market Interpret This?
🔥 Trump blew up today.
He posted several times on social media, denying any shortage of U.S. ammunition, threatening to investigate and severely punish the "leakers," even calling such statements "treason" punishable by long-term imprisonment.
But the interesting part is—the more he denies it, the more the market needs to watch this closely.
Let's review the actual situation:
The U.S. military has been fighting Iran for nearly half a year. The "THAAD" interceptors have been consumed by nearly 80%, "Patriot" missiles are halfway used up, and Army Tactical Missiles (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) are basically depleted. Even The Washington Post revealed that Trump had an argument last week at Camp David with Defense Secretary Hagel over this because Trump thought the ammunition issue "had been resolved."
So the current situation is delicate: verbally it's "massive munitions," but in reality, it's "one missile fired, one less in stock."
What does this mean for the market?
🔥 Limited room for escalation in the Middle East, geopolitical risk may cool down temporarily
This is the core logic. The U.S. military isn’t unwilling to fight; it’s that high-end ammunition is truly running low. Precision-guided weapons like Tomahawks, JASSM-ER, and Patriots are gone once fired, and restocking takes years. No matter how tough Trump talks, the defense industry's production capacity won’t play along.
If the scope for military escalation is locked by ammunition inventory, the worst phase of the Middle East situation may be behind us. For risk assets (BTC, ETH, U.S. stocks), this is a relief signal.
🛡️ Safe-haven assets under short-term pressure
Gold and crude oil have risen significantly recently, largely supported by geopolitical premiums. Once the market realizes "the U.S. can’t keep fighting," demand for safe havens will decline. Oil is especially sensitive—if the risk around the Strait of Hormuz cools, the geopolitical premium in oil prices will be squeezed out.
Of course, if Trump escalates forcibly for face-saving reasons, that’s another matter. But from actual military capability, the probability of major escalation is decreasing.
💰 Defense sector is the beneficiary
No matter how Trump scolds the "leakers," replenishing ammunition is a must. The Pentagon has already signed expansion agreements with Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, extending the defense companies’ order pipelines. The defense supply chains in both A-shares and U.S. stocks are worth continuous attention.
⚡ Crypto perspective: Is the worst over?
BTC was suffocated by the Middle East situation recently; every time Iran launched a missile, the market trembled. Now, if geopolitical risk enters a "stalemate but hard to escalate" phase, the rebound space for risk assets will open up.
But don’t rush to go all in. Trump is unpredictable—today he scolds leakers, tomorrow he might take other actions to divert attention. Also, the Fed’s rate cut cycle hasn’t fully materialized yet, so macro uncertainties remain.
My judgment:
In the short term, Trump’s "tough talk" actually gives the market a window to observe—the upper limit of military escalation is capped by ammunition inventory. This is a marginal positive for risk assets and a marginal negative for safe havens.
In the medium term, defense production expansion is a certain direction, and the Middle East situation will shift from "hot war" to "diplomatic tug-of-war," with the market’s geopolitical premium gradually unwinding.
In a nutshell: The more Trump shouts "ample ammunition," the more it shows he has fewer cards left. The market watches not what he says, but what he can still do.
What do you think—if the Middle East cools down, is it a positive for BTC or just a temporary rebound?👇 📊 $XRP Contract Liquidation Express (August 6)
According to liquidation data, short-term shorts were crushed hard, but mid-to-long-term longs suffered a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $29,000
Long liquidations about $4,743.06
Short liquidations about $24,200
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $75,100
Long liquidations about $43,200
Short liquidations about $31,900
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $4,652,100
Long liquidations about $4,597,900
Short liquidations about $54,200
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $6,039,600
Long liquidations about $5,895,000
Short liquidations about $144,600
From the $XRP liquidation data, short liquidations in the 1-hour and 4-hour periods crushed longs, with short liquidations 5 times and 1.35 times that of longs respectively, indicating a short squeeze dominating the short term; the 12-hour direction suddenly reversed, with long liquidations crushing shorts, longs were 84 times shorts, entering a nuclear-level long kill; in 24 hours, long liquidations surged to $5.89 million, 40 times shorts. The whale on XRP completed an epic turnaround from short squeeze to long kill — short-term short sellers were targeted and blasted, mid-to-long-term longs were wiped out, with total liquidations exceeding $6.03 million. Longs bled heavily, the long kill momentum unstoppable. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 6
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly good" — "exceeding expectations" is just the entry ticket, any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + $14 billion buyback, still knocked down by "not impressive enough"
SanDisk delivered explosive earnings: Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% YoY; adjusted EPS $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; board approved $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue $20.25 billion, up 175% YoY.
However, after-hours stock price once plunged nearly 8%. The culprit was next quarter’s guidance — revenue midpoint $10.55 billion, below market expectation of $10.82 billion. Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% implies high margin may enter a plateau. 372% growth not enough, $14 billion buyback not enough — the market demands "perfection".
💳 Circle: USDC growth steady, Arc becomes new narrative
Before market on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle released Q2 results: total revenue $701 million, up 7% YoY; net profit $48 million, turning profitable from loss last year. USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, up 19% YoY; on-chain transaction volume $14.8 trillion, soaring 151% YoY.
The biggest highlight is Arc — the company significantly raised full-year other income guidance to $310-$330 million, mainly reflecting $242 million Arc token presale revenue confirmed in Q2. USDC is the base, Arc is the future the market bets on. With crypto payment penetration continuously rising, Circle is trying to upgrade from "stablecoin issuer" to "crypto financial infrastructure platform".
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubled, unlocking peak is the real storm
After market on August 4, SpaceX’s first earnings report appeared: Q2 revenue $7.814 billion, up 92% YoY, far exceeding expected $6.9 billion; adjusted EBITDA $3.5 billion.
After-hours stock price once plunged over 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times last year’s same period — the market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. The bigger storm is on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares unlocking, with unlock market value up to $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current circulating supply. Less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth was met with after-hours plunge, SpaceX’s 92% revenue growth was met with market voting with feet — "exceeding expectations" has become the passing line, only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," every deviation in guidance, every dollar of capital expenditure will be scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming — and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地
There is new progress regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran and Oman have agreed on the geographic coordinates of the new shipping route, and the joint statement has entered the final review stage. According to the preliminary plan, the existing two channels in the strait will be closed and replaced with a new temporary route passing through Iranian territorial waters, expected to be used for 2 to 4 months. Trump said, "There will be results within 48 hours," and the U.S. aims to make an official announcement on Wednesday.
But looking closely at the details, this is a different matter from "opening the strait."
The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, "This does not mean the Strait of Hormuz will resume safe navigation." Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Karbasian explicitly denied that Iran and the U.S. are negotiating, directly saying, "We are not talking with you." Iran also links the opening of the strait to U.S. compliance—without lifting the port blockade and resuming the memorandum of understanding, the strait will remain closed. Iran is regaining control of the strait through Oman as an intermediary, not making concessions. Four issues remain unresolved: how to ensure shipping safety, who sets the passage rules, what standards the enforcement mechanism follows, and the exact relationship between the agreement and "opening the strait." While saying "close to agreement," the other side says "agreement does not equal opening." They announce the agreement but keep their options open.
Back to oil prices.
After the news, WTI briefly dropped to 74, Brent fell below 80. It rose 20% in July but gave all back in the first week of August. The market is pre-trading the "agreement reached" expectation. If the final signed agreement is limited in substance and vague in enforcement, the risk of a short-term rebound in oil prices remains.
The impact on the crypto space is twofold.
First, inflation expectations are fluctuating. Oil prices fell, cooling inflation expectations and easing rate hike pressure, which is good for Bitcoin. But the rebound risk is not eliminated; if talks collapse or enforcement issues arise, oil prices could bounce back, bringing macro pressure back to Bitcoin.
Second, reports mention that cryptocurrency payments remain a viable option in the Iran-Oman agreement. If oil trade starts settling in crypto, it would be a structural change for the industry, far more significant than oil price fluctuations themselves.
My judgment is simple—falling oil prices are good, but don’t treat the temporary agreement as a long-term positive trade.
There is progress, but it is still a distance from actual implementation. The market is already pre-trading this expectation. If the final signed document is something that sounds good but is limited in substance, the short-term rebound of risk assets could be revised at any time. Bitcoin has been stuck around 64000 for so long; don’t rush to act before the direction emerges.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $BICO $BTC $NVDA Dow Jones +0.49% hits a record high of 54,349, S&P -0.17%, Nasdaq -0.83%. Nvidia +3.43%, AMD -7%.
This contrast needs some explanation.
SpaceX announced today: AI services will exclusively use Nvidia chips, no longer using AMD.
Musk said a few months ago that SpaceX would use chips from both companies. Today he changed his stance.
One piece of news, Nvidia rises 3.43%, AMD falls 7%. A zero-sum game, very clear.
At the same time, SpaceX released its earnings report today—revenue and profit exceeded expectations, but the stock price dropped 13%. This is the most classic "good earnings, bad reaction" of the year—the market is selling off the news realization, not the earnings themselves. SPCX is now about $114, down about 49% from the all-time high of $225, and down about 15% from the IPO price of $135.
There is also an important signal today: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (2026 FOMC voting member) publicly stated that it is now time to "start gradually raising rates" to control inflation. This is the latest public expression of division within the FOMC—he was one of the three voting members supporting a rate hike last week.
Tomorrow is the most critical data of the week: July official nonfarm payrolls, expected to add 83,000, a significant rebound from June's 57,000. If tomorrow beats expectations, the probability of a September rate hike will be further strengthened; if below expectations, the rate hike narrative cools down, benefiting BTC. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 ENGLISH BELOW
WLD bounced back to 0.3124, do the bears dare to take this shot?
$WLD/USDT - SHORT
Trade plan: (confidence: 95.00%)
Entry range: 0.3120 – 0.3128
Stop loss: 0.3157
Take profit 1: 0.3100
Take profit 2: 0.3083
Take profit 3: 0.3059
Why focus on this opportunity?
The daily chart is still in a bearish trend. Although BTC is somewhat bullish, WLD clearly hasn’t followed the rally. This divergence is exactly the confidence to short. On the 4-hour timeframe, the current price is right at 0.3124. I plan to place short orders in the 0.3120–0.3128 range, with a stop loss at 0.3157. The RSI on the 15-minute chart is only 49.89, indicating weak momentum. The rebound looks more like a buildup for a drop rather than a reversal.
The 1-hour ATR is 0.003839, so volatility isn’t extreme, but I won’t chase the entry. I’ll wait for a pullback into the range before acting. TP is divided into three levels: 0.3100, 0.3083, and 0.3059. The first target is close, so I’ll take partial profits early and then see if it can break lower. If the price shoots up directly, 0.3238 is the invalidation level for this trade; if it passes that, I’ll admit I was wrong and exit.
The key to this trade is whether 0.3124 holds. If it holds, it’s the bears’ stage; if not, I’ll wait for the next opportunity.
What’s your take?
When shorting, do you move your first take profit to breakeven immediately, or do you wait for a breakdown before moving your stop loss?
#WLD #Crypto #CryptoTrading #OKX #Trading #ShortSanDisk's latest quarterly report shows top-tier revenue of $8.965 billion. According to the company's announcement, this is 51% higher than the previous quarter. This is not the company's fiscal year "second quarter." On SanDisk's accounts, it is called FY2026 Q4, with a reporting period ending July 3, covering most of the second quarter of the calendar year, and is currently the latest snapshot of its Q2 operations. The fiscal year name takes a detour, and when reading the financial report, it's easier to overlook where the growth actually comes from. The company indicated in the SEC's 8-K attachment that the results are still pending the fiscal year closing and audit process, and the final 10-K may be adjusted. This report is based on this earnings announcement and does not consider management's guidance for the next quarter as revenue already indicated. How did this quarter's revenue jump up? According to SanDisk's earnings announcement, FY2025 Q4 revenue was still $1.901 billion, with the latest quarter reaching $8.965 billion. The steps in the chart are steep, but they are closer to the company's operational experience than "year-on-year growth." The last panel is especially interesting. The revenue increase in the latest quarter compared to the previous quarter has already surpassed the full-quarter revenue for FY2025 Q4. It translates the 51% increase in the previous month into a more intuitive picture. SanDisk isn't just adding a small segment to its existing scale, but growing another version of itself from the past quarter within three months. The company's revenue guidance for the next quarter has already reached the midpoint of tens of billions of dollars. It was a dashed line, representing the management at this momentThe real test is just beginning. Many people believe that as long as US stocks rise, Bitcoin will definitely soar. But in recent days, the market has been telling everyone: things are not that simple. The S&P 500's market capitalization this month is almost equivalent to an increase of $2 trillion in the total crypto market capitalization, but BTC still hovers around $64,000–$65,000, clearly underperforming US stocks. Funds have not left risk assets but continue to cluster in traditional markets like AI and US stocks, while BTC seems somewhat waiting for the wind. But don't be too pessimistic. With oil prices falling and expectations for cooling inflation and interest rate cuts heating up again, the macro environment is gradually tilting toward risk assets. Bitcoin's ability to hold steadily near $65,000 is itself a strong performance. Once capital starts rotating out of US stocks, BTC still has the potential to become the next stop. Additionally, there is another piece of news that is easy to overlook today. A developer team has used AI to continuously review Bitcoin code and has discovered 85 high-risk vulnerabilities, causing concern among many. But I actually think it's a good thing. Proactively discovering and fixing vulnerabilities in time is better than waiting for hackers to exploit them and only realize it. The real danger isn't discovering the problem, but that no one goes looking for it. Next, my focus is not on whether BTC can reach $66,000, but on when funds will start flowing back into the crypto market from AI and US stocks. If this step happens, the market in the latter half of this year may truly begin.SNDK/WDC earnings reports have finished, BTC 65000 sideways waiting for CLARITY vote, storage longs keep quiet for now
1. SNDK plunged immediately after last night's earnings release, WDC also dropped after its earnings, this storage sector downturn is not isolated but a general underperformance. Those who previously hyped "CWW is back" must be feeling a bit embarrassed.
2. BTC is moving sideways around 65000, with about one day left before the US CLARITY Act vote. Until the direction is clear, after buying you can wait, avoid frequent moves. The Ethereum Foundation wallet is transferring coins again, market interprets this as selling pressure, sentiment is not friendly. For SOL, don’t just look at the narrative; first figure out how you actually make money, don’t chase blindly.
3. The US Senate Digital Assets Caucus chair stated the CLARITY Act will be voted on before recess, expect market volatility around this date. Trump was reportedly misled on ammunition stockpile assessments, got angry at the Defense Secretary; meanwhile, he repeatedly called Walsh asking about Iran and AI’s impact on the economy. Vance said Iran negotiations will take time, but Iran released new Strait navigation details, US still counting down, the deal is not dead.
4. Russian President Putin signed the digital currency and digital rights regulation law, signaling implementation. US and UK expand digital asset regulatory cooperation, stablecoins to align with unified standards. The CLARITY Act issue highlights a problem: the crypto industry’s external communication is poor, having votes isn’t enough, people need to understand.
5. Bitcoin Red Team found 85 critical vulnerabilities in 390 open-source libraries, infrastructure is not as stable as it seems. ETF Store CEO said crypto needs stronger market education, a sharp critique. Ethereum Foundation wallet transferred over 578 ETH to a new Gnosis Safe proxy wallet, about 1.08 million USD, market instinctively reacts: is this another sell-off?
6. RedotPay responded to Binance’s 473 million lawsuit, denying allegations and actively defending, friction between exchange and payment layers continues.
7. Fed Governor Cook warned of entrenched inflation, said rate hikes support is necessary; Kashkari also discussed inflation risks, futures market rate hike probability surged to 46%. But on the surface they talk hikes, in reality everyone is paving the way for rate cuts, words and actions don’t align.
8. Nikita Bier stepped down as X product lead to advisor, refunded money to platform contributors, not a trivial matter. My judgment: this earnings season, most companies have "revenue not collapsed but guidance disappointing," so stock/coin prices tend to fall. Outperforming expectations is not enough, guidance must exceed expectations to rise. Therefore, betting on downside currently has a higher success rate than upside.
9. That gold surge yesterday, @SuperBILI probably earned more than several listed companies’ annual profits, not surprising, big macro volatility, right direction is money printing.
Personal stance: no betting on breakout before the bill, no long positions before storage earnings risks clear, no trust in ETH transfers without explanation, BTC 65000 range only trade small cycles, wait for major news to choose direction.
$BTC $ETH $XAU 美东时间周三盘后，存储芯片巨头闪迪（Sandisk）公布了截至 7 月 3 日的第四财季及完整财年业绩。 财报数据显示，本财季闪迪营收 89.7 亿美元（市场预期 84.8 亿美元），同比暴增 372%，环比亦增长 51%；非 GAAP 口径下的调整后每股收益（EPS）为 39.25 美元，为一年前水平（0.29 美元）的 135 倍，环比亦增长 68%，高出市场预期近 10%；调整后毛利率达到 84.6%，同比大幅提高了 58.2 个百分点。 从全年维度来看，闪迪的 2026 财年也堪称惊艳。全年营收达到 202.5 亿美元，同比增长 175%；GAAP 口径下净利润 114.3 亿美元，全年 Non-GAAP 每股收益高达 70.88 美元。要知道，2025 财年闪迪还处于亏损 16.4 亿美元的境地，一年时间完成如此逆转，本身就说明 NAND 存储周期与 AI 需求共振的威力。 但资本市场并未给予这份财报正面反馈。财报公布前，闪迪收盘已经下跌 5.4%；财报发布后，盘后再次大跌近 8%，截至 11:00 暂报 1243 美元。 市场为何没有奖励这样一份“创纪录”的财报？底层逻辑与SanDisk's performance has no flaws, but it still dropped 5% after hours. Here's my take.
Just finished reviewing SanDisk's Q4 earnings report, and the numbers are indeed impressive:
· Revenue of 8.97 billion, expected 8.39 billion, beating by 600 million
· Earnings per share $39.25, expected $34.4, significantly exceeding expectations
· Gross margin 84.6%, up more than 6 points from 78.4%
· Data center revenue 2.97 billion, exceeding expectations with 437% growth, QLC's Stargate product has started contributing revenue
Logically, these numbers should have triggered a strong rally.
But it dropped 5% after hours.
The reason is simple: the market isn't looking at the 2026 results, it's focused on the 2027 outlook.
Q1 revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, midpoint 10.55 billion, while the market expects 10.8 billion. That 250 million difference is critical.
The current market logic is simple: good performance is expected, good guidance is the real positive. Guidance that doesn't hit the ceiling is considered failing.
Here's my action plan:
Short term, no rush to bottom-fish; wait for sentiment to fully release. But the long-term logic remains unchanged—AI storage demand is still exploding, and the QLC line is just getting started.
Do you think this drop is an opportunity or a trap? Let's discuss in the comments 👇Samsung fell, then Hynix fell, but this time it's really different
This morning, the South Korean stock market crashed again.
The South Korean KOSPI index dropped more than 5% at one point, triggering a circuit breaker. SK Hynix fell more than 10%, Samsung Electronics fell more than 6%.
In one month, SK Hynix dropped 35%, Samsung dropped 23%.
Do you have friends like this around you—who chased Korean chip stocks at the beginning of the year, shouting "Memory is king in the AI era," and now looking at their accounts, feeling terrible?
Don't rush to sell.
Goldman Sachs released a report today with one sentence:
"The South Korean stock market has been oversold."
They set the KOSPI target price for the next 12 months at 12,000 points. The logic is simple—memory cycles may be stronger and last longer than before, and the current stock prices do not reflect this at all.
Goldman Sachs also reiterated "buy" ratings for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, with target prices of 490,000 KRW and 3,500,000 KRW respectively.
You might think Goldman Sachs is bullish and unloading. But look at two sets of data:
First, inventory.
As of the end of Q2, Samsung and Hynix's DRAM and NAND inventory is only 2 to 4 weeks. The normal level is 4 to 5 weeks. Historically, before every downturn cycle, inventory was above 10 weeks.
Current inventory is even below normal levels.
Second, capacity.
The three major manufacturers' DRAM and HBM capacity for 2027 is completely sold out. Customers ultimately receive only 60% to 70% of their initial orders.
In 2027, the industry is already calling it "the year of the greatest storage shortage."
Even more striking is one thing—
Apple tried to pressure ChangXin Memory on price but was rejected.
Apple, the world's most powerful buyer, who could refuse Apple's price cuts in the past? ChangXin Memory directly said: prices cannot be lower than Samsung and Hynix.
No backup options left.
The bargaining power for DRAM has completely shifted from end manufacturers to storage companies.
This is not a cycle. This is a structural shortage.
So the question arises: with memory supply continuously tight, who truly benefits?
Chip companies?
Samsung and Hynix are raising prices—July DRAM contract prices rose 14.3% month-over-month, hitting a record high. But stock prices are falling because the market worries "AI capital expenditure has peaked," treating chip stocks as derivatives of the AI cycle and selling them off.
Equipment companies?
Tokyo Electron, ASML, those selling the "shovels," have orders booked through 2028. But equipment companies' valuations already fully reflect expectations; further gains require surprises.
Or the AI industry chain?
HBM is fully booked by Nvidia, and the three major manufacturers' 2027 HBM capacity is sold out. But AI chip companies' own stock prices are also adjusting.
My view is simple—
In this memory cycle, the real beneficiaries are not any single segment but the entire "storage" asset class itself.
DRAM is shifting from a "component" to a "strategic material."
Memory used to be a commodity with a three-year price cycle. Now memory is a bottleneck; whoever has the supply calls the shots.
Apple can't push prices down, capacity is sold out two years in advance, inventory is only two weeks—this is not how a cycle peak looks.
To be frank:
The market is treating Korean chip stocks as AI concept stocks and selling them off, but the fundamentals of memory and the AI narrative are two different things.
AI can cool down, but servers need memory, phones need memory, cars need memory. DRAM demand is rigid, supply is monopolized.
Samsung and Hynix have dropped 23% and 35% in one month. Goldman Sachs says this is overselling.
Do you think it's a wrong kill or the cycle peak?
$SKHYNIX $SKHY $SAMSUNG #内存卖方市场延续，韩股能否迎来反转？ 🐕 DOGE Drops to a Three-Year Low, but On-Chain Data Quietly Recovers—Calm Before the Dawn?
As of August 6, DOGE is priced at $0.0699**, up about 0.13% in 24 hours. The 52-week range is **$0.06785 - $0.30628**. Year-to-date decline is approximately **40.5%**. Circulating supply is about **171.1 billion coins**, with a market cap of approximately **$11.95 billion, ranking 10th.
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1. Price Trend: Dropped to a Three-Year Low, Down 90% from Historical High
DOGE recently hit its lowest point since autumn 2023, touching $0.067** at one point. This is about an 85% drop from the **end of 2024** peak of **$0.48**, and about a 90% drop from the all-time high.
The entire meme coin market has lost over $2 billion in market cap recently, with DOGE, as a leader, under simultaneous pressure.
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2. On-Chain Data: Mixed Signals
📈 Active addresses surged 16%: Weekly active addresses rose from 38,000 to 44,000, a 16% increase, indicating a rebound in network participation.
🐳 Whales continue accumulating: Over the past month, whales purchased more than 1 billion DOGE; in the past 24 hours, they bought another 230 million. A record 149 wallets control 108.52 billion DOGE.
📊 Futures market activity: Open interest rose to $1.1 billion. However, options trading volume plummeted 54.64%, showing reduced institutional hedging demand.
On-chain data is recovering, but the price remains stagnant—a classic case of "fundamentals diverging from price."
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3. Musk Effect: From "Catalyst" to "Immunity"
Previously, DOGE was highly correlated with Musk’s tweets, but now that correlation has completely broken down. Recently, Tesla’s official X account announced that some U.S. stores will support DOGE payments, but the market response was muted—Musk’s narrative has "failed."
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4. Technical Analysis: Oversold Signals and Key Resistance Coexist
Indicator Value Meaning
Current Price $0.0699 Low-level consolidation
Monthly RSI One of the lowest in history Fell below 2022 bear market bottom level
Weekly RSI ~32.7 Approaching oversold line at 30
MACD Sideways entanglement Direction unclear
Monthly RSI has dropped to one of the most oversold levels on record; historically, such extreme readings often mark the end of massive panic selling. However, overall technical indicators still point to a "strong sell."
📉 Downside risk: If it falls below $0.0680**, the next support is at **$0.0660; if the weekly close is below $0.05, the bottoming thesis will be completely invalidated.
📈 Upside potential: After reclaiming $0.07**, resistance levels are **$0.0720, $0.0750, $0.0780; breaking above the 20-week moving average at $0.088** could challenge **$0.11-$0.12**. Some analysts believe that if buying continues, a rebound to **$0.10** is possible in Q3.
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5. Macro Risks: The Damocles Sword of Tightening Liquidity
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 62.5%; the Bank of Japan’s September rate hike probability is about 40%. If both central banks tighten simultaneously, it could accelerate the unwinding of yen carry trades—similar scenarios in August 2024 caused Bitcoin to drop about 15%.
---
6. Summary
Bullish factors: Monthly RSI at historically extreme oversold levels, 16% surge in active addresses, continuous whale accumulation (over 1 billion coins monthly), futures open interest climbing to $1.1 billion, historical support zone ($0.048-$0.063) has triggered two major rebounds before.
Bearish risks: Musk’s narrative completely failed, down 90% from historical highs, technical indicators still signal sell, macro liquidity tightening risks.
DOGE is caught in a tug-of-war between "extreme oversold vs. fundamental recovery." RSI signals a bottom, whale and address data are recovering, but the failure of the Musk effect and macro headwinds are suppressing it. Is this a bottom-fishing opportunity or a bull trap? The market is deeply divided—the answer may depend on which breaks the deadlock first: macro liquidity or on-chain activity.
$DOGE SanDisk's price movement over the past half month is practically a textbook demonstration of what "sharp rises and sharp falls" look like.
On June 22, the historical high was $2354, and on July 28, the lowest dropped to $1096, a maximum drawdown of nearly 53%. Within 5 trading days, it fell from 1610 to 1278 and then to 1096, like riding a roller coaster. Now it has climbed back above $1400, and this rebound is quite strong.
//
Let's talk about how this rebound came about.
First, oil prices collapsed. In the past two days, international oil prices plummeted, with WTI dropping over 4% at one point and Brent falling nearly 4%. This eased a major pressure on tech stocks, leading to a collective rebound in the storage semiconductor sector. SanDisk rose over 6% in a single day, while Micron and Western Digital also gained over 3%.
Second, the HBF standard was established. On August 4, SK Hynix and SanDisk jointly released the first standard specification for the next-generation storage technology High Bandwidth Flash (HBF), coinciding with the flash memory summit in Santa Clara, California. This is not just a promise but a substantial industry-standard level progress—filling the gap between HBM and SSD, effectively reserving a spot for the next wave of data center storage demand.
Third, order locking. SanDisk has already signed long-term contracts worth at least $42 billion to cope with extreme price fluctuations like now. The company itself also forecasts continued improvement in this quarter's performance.
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How to view this round of rebound?
SanDisk's recent stock price movement largely isn't due to problems in its own business but because the entire storage sector is undergoing an emotional deflation—rising too fast and falling sharply. The fundamentals (long contracts, HBF standard, AI data center demand) have actually remained intact; the volatility mainly comes from the market's repeated hesitation over the big question of "whether AI capital expenditure can sustain."
Now standing back above $1400, rather than a "reversal," it's more like a repair after two weeks of extreme emotional release. What truly determines whether it can hold steady going forward will be the upcoming earnings reports and whether orders can continue to validate this logic.
The above is only personal observation, with data sourced from public market information, and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR
#SanDisk #USStocks The US stock storage sector collectively declined in pre-market trading.
SanDisk dropped over 8%, with the company’s revenue guidance for the next fiscal quarter at $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, below market expectations. Western Digital fell nearly 12%, SK Hynix dropped nearly 6%, and Micron Technology declined nearly 3%.
This drop looks sharp, but I think the market is really trading not just on one company’s earnings forecast, but on the previously highly elevated storage cycle expectations.
In recent times, stories like AI servers, data center expansion, high-bandwidth memory, and enterprise-grade SSDs have pushed the storage sector’s valuation and sentiment quite high. The original expectation was for sustained tight demand, continuous price increases, and manufacturers’ performance improving quarter over quarter. Now that SanDisk’s guidance missed expectations, the market immediately starts to worry whether demand is truly slowing or if previous expectations were just too optimistic.
Western Digital’s nearly 12% drop shows that investors are unwilling to patiently wait for explanations and prefer to cash out first. This is how the US stock market works: when expectations are high, even if earnings aren’t bad, stocks can still fall. As long as performance isn’t good enough to support higher valuations, the market will cut valuations first.
Personally, I don’t think this necessarily means the storage cycle has completely peaked, but it does highlight one issue: the hardware demand driven by AI can’t keep rising blindly across all sub-sectors. The market is shifting from storytelling to focusing on orders, inventory, gross margins, and next quarter’s guidance.
For the crypto market, this change is also worth noting. Recently, crypto assets have been quite dependent on risk appetite. When tech stocks, especially those in the AI chain, experience a significant pullback, short-term funds often shrink their risk exposure first. BTC is relatively resilient, but ETH and altcoins, which are higher beta assets, tend to be more volatile due to sentiment.
So, I won’t simply interpret today’s event as negative for storage stocks, nor will I immediately see it as a signal that the US stock market is about to crash.
The biggest fear for high-expectation assets is never that earnings worsen, but that growth continues but is no longer impressive enough. What we need to watch next is whether other storage manufacturers’ earnings and guidance can hold steady. If subsequent results also continuously fall short of expectations, then this won’t be just a single company’s misstep but possibly a need to reprice the entire sector $SNDK $BTC 🔍 Solana In-Depth Analysis: On-Chain Data Hits All-Time High, Can Tokenomics Reform Ignite the Price?
As of August 6, SOL is priced at $73.3-$74, with a slight rebound in the past 24 hours. Since dipping below $65 in June, the price has been consolidating in the $72-$76 range. The year-to-date decline is about 48%, with a market cap around $49.5 billion.
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1. On-Chain Data: Activity Hits Record High, Severely Divergent from Price
📈 Non-voting transactions reach all-time high: As of the week ending August 2, Solana’s non-voting transactions surpassed 1.01 billion, setting a weekly record. This growth is driven by multiple sectors including DeFi, stablecoin transfers, token issuance, and consumer applications, showing strong sustainability.
🔒 Staking rate exceeds 70%: Over 70% of SOL supply is staked. Coinbase stakes about 41.63 million SOL through 23 validator nodes, accounting for 9.72% of total network staking. Q2 annualized staking yield is 6.52%, higher than the network average of 6.38%.
🏦 TVL ranks second: Solana’s TVL is approximately $4.96 billion, representing 8.04% of the Layer-1 market, second only to Ethereum. The DeFi ecosystem’s TVL reaches $9.2 billion.
On-chain data is strengthening comprehensively, yet the price remains stagnant — the market is experiencing a severe "fundamentals vs. price divergence."
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2. Tokenomics Reform: A Major Catalyst for the Deflation Narrative
The Solana community is advancing two key governance proposals:
Proposal Content Impact
SIMD-0553 Introduce resource consumption-based fee mechanism Daily burn volume increases from 650 to 7,500-9,000 (↑14x)
SIMD-0550 Raise annual deflation rate to 30% Terminal inflation rate of 1.5% accelerated from 2032 to 2029
If both proposals are implemented simultaneously, about 18.9 million SOL issuance could be reduced over the next 6 years (valued at approximately $1.36 billion). SOL’s inflation rate could reach its lowest level within 2.8 years instead of the original 5.7 years.
⚠️ Critical point: The proposals need about 65.16 million SOL support (15% staking threshold) by August 18. Currently, 73 validators have expressed support, but the support volume is still about 3 million SOL short of the threshold.
Even if the proposals pass, the daily new issuance of about 65,500 SOL still far exceeds the maximum burn volume of 9,000 — the reform is a "slowdown" rather than a "reversal."
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3. Ecosystem Development and Institutional Adoption
· Institutions rushing in: Morgan Stanley has launched Solana ETP (ticker MSOL) with a fee of only 0.14%; Amundi has launched Solana UCITS fund
· Breakpoint 2026: Scheduled for November 15-17 in London
· AI and tokenization: Bernstein report points out tokenization will drive demand for advanced blockchain solutions like Solana
· Alpenglow consensus upgrade: Expected to advance in late 2026
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4. Technical Analysis: Direction Choice is Imminent
Indicator Value Meaning
Current price $73.3-$74 Sideways consolidation
50-day EMA ~$79 Resistance above
100-day EMA ~$75 Recent resistance
200-day EMA ~$91 Long-term pressure
RSI ~46 Neutral to slightly weak
Bollinger Bands upper/lower $74.58 / $72.54 Narrowing range
SOL is currently trading below all major moving averages. Recently consolidating in the $72-$76 range, two mid-term moving averages are gradually converging toward the current price, signaling an imminent directional choice.
Key levels: Strong resistance at $74.5-$75 above; recent support at $72 below; breaking below may test $70.
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5. SOL vs ETH: Layer-1 Competitive Landscape
Solana has surpassed Ethereum in Layer-1 activity — higher transaction volume, more active users, stronger DEX trading volume. Both have monthly DEX volumes around $45 billion, with Solana’s market share dropping to about 94% of Ethereum’s.
Ethereum’s TVL is about $41 billion (63%), Solana’s about $4.96 billion (8%). Ethereum leads in security and institutional settlement layers, while Solana leads in speed and transaction costs.
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6. Summary
Bullish logic: On-chain activity hits all-time high, staking rate over 70% shows long-term holding confidence, tokenomics reform (14x burn increase + accelerated inflation target) is a major supply-side positive, traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley continue to enter
Bearish risks: Price severely diverges from fundamentals, technicals suppressed by multiple moving averages, uncertainty whether proposals will gain enough support by August 18, prediction markets show about 70% probability of SOL dropping to $40 first
Solana stands at an extreme divergence point of strongest fundamentals vs. weakest price. If tokenomics reform passes smoothly, it could be the fuse to ignite the rally; if it fails, the current sideways stalemate may end with a downward breakout.
$SOL